Sam:
[0:00]
| Testing one, two, three. There we go. Hey folks, this is Sam from the future. I'm recording this intro message on November 7th at 1537 UTC, but just wanted to let you know, as we mentioned on the show last week, we recorded a curmudgeons corner sort of live show reaction to election results as they came in. And by the time you're listening to this, I'm sure you know the results of that election. President Trump handily won re-election. The Republicans took over the Senate. The results in the House haven't fully been official yet. The Democrats still have some hope there, but it's not looking good for them, to be honest. It's probably going to be the Republicans taking the House. But those are the overall results. but Yvonne and I recorded a six and a half hour live show reaction.
|
Sam:
[1:00]
| And, you know, Yvonne, Yvonne's basically like, I have no energy left to talk about any of this stuff anymore. And, you know, frankly, we already did six and a half hours. That's, that's a lot of stuff. So what we're going to do here, I was going to put the live show at the end of any new show we recorded this week anyway, but I think we're just going to leave that live show as the show.
|
Sam:
[1:27]
| So this I'll be including like, it's not going to be the whole six and a half hours because I'm going to run it through software that like eliminates like gaps where nobody's talking and stuff like that. So it'll be shorter. I don't know how much shorter, but I'm not actually going to go through and like carefully edit it or anything. I'm just going to dump it into my software that takes out the ums and ahs and takes out the silences and it is what it is. So you'll get to sort of hear the slightly abbreviated version of our live show. If you actually attended the live show, there were about eight people listening and commenting and interacting with us as we recorded, which was a lot of fun. Then obviously you've heard a lot of this already. So maybe you skip this. We will be back for our full sort of normal reactions and talking about things next week. Give a little bit more time to digest the results and the implications and all of this kind of stuff. But I think, you know, rather than record a brand new normal show, we're just going to let the live stream be our show this week because, you know, it was a lot anyway.
|
Sam:
[2:42]
| That's the idea. So folks, here's our live stream recorded starting at just about zero UTC on November 6th, 2024.
|
Sam:
[2:59]
| So election night, basically, and Tuesday night in the US. Here we go.
|
Sam:
[3:37]
| Hello, everyone. Let's wait till we got the thingy and do the checks. Okay, we are here. My live stream checker thing isn't working. So I'm gonna have to manually tell curmudgeon's corner chat that we're live. And Yvonne's late. Yvonne is late. um posts copy post.
|
Sam:
[4:19]
| Okay so everybody as this goes through and i know there's nobody actually here on the live stream yet yvonne's not even here but we'll just be reacting to the various things as we go So there have been two states called so far, Vermont and, or three, Vermont, Kentucky, and Indiana, it looks like, from various places. No surprises there. I'm actually working in another window in getting my little spreadsheet set up so I can track the, you know, when we actually get any swing states called, how that reduces the range of possibilities. But it'll be a little while in the evening till we get that, I think. Hello, Yvonne. Oh, welcome. We've had a few states called already, but none that are surprises. Kentucky, Indiana, and Vermont.
|
Ivan:
[5:09]
| I see that. Yes.
|
Sam:
[5:12]
| I'm in the other window setting up my little spreadsheet, which I didn't do beforehand to track these as they get called.
|
Ivan:
[5:20]
| But I am very glum at this moment. It's not that I'm just not. It's it's not that I I I'm just I I'm I'm dreading just.
|
Sam:
[5:33]
| Yeah, I mean, I am.
|
Ivan:
[5:35]
| I am. I am just not.
|
Sam:
[5:38]
| Let's talk about like, I mean, let me let me throw this in.
|
Ivan:
[5:43]
| Come on, you stupid thing. Stop doing that.
|
Sam:
[5:47]
| So what do you think right now? Like right now, I am cautiously optimistic. I feel like there's been a lot of stuff building in the last week that seems like semi-evidence that the polls have been underestimating Harris. On the other hand, I don't feel like I can trust my feelings on any of that stuff.
|
Ivan:
[6:09]
| Here is my whole problem is that it's just.
|
Sam:
[6:20]
| You know, yes, yes.
|
Ivan:
[6:23]
| It's just, you know, it's very, very, you know, the results are, you know.
|
Sam:
[6:35]
| Are, yes.
|
Ivan:
[6:37]
| It's just that the outcome of this is very binary.
|
Sam:
[6:41]
| Yes, it is. Like, if it really is as close as everyone thinks it might be, if it's not a blowout by one side or the other, then it's just going to be like a few votes on one side or the other makes a massive difference for the rest of our lives.
|
Ivan:
[7:02]
| Yeah. I mean, yeah, and I guess that's it. So I just, I don't know. I, you know, so I don't know. I'm just, I don't know. My emotions the whole day ran the gamut. I'm not going to, you know, I was feeling, I said, I felt surprisingly not stressed. Like I will say like a two in the afternoon, but as the hour that polls were to close, started approaching my level of anxiety grew exponentially.
|
Sam:
[7:50]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[7:51]
| And so, you know, I, yeah, I, I.
|
Sam:
[7:55]
| I, I, I, I'm using all of this right now.
|
Ivan:
[7:59]
| And so that's, yeah.
|
Sam:
[8:00]
| You need your phone located. I'll locate your phone. Hi. yeah i mean and i i've i've.
|
Ivan:
[8:09]
| I will say that i i there is a surprise i mean you know we're talking about that trump was ahead in florida by it's beeping by a lot and right now it's 51 48 in florida and the first returns that are in.
|
Sam:
[8:27]
| Well yeah i mean you can't.
|
Ivan:
[8:29]
| I'm first first returns are first returns i know and first returns for first returns he can't really you know, but well i'm not i'm not saying you know trump is winning florida i'm just just i mean i i think yeah i i don't know who the fuck knows why the fuck am i i mean this is just, i hate this uh yeah i'm just i i i i i i this this this whole thing has just been, so fucking trading to get to this point. You know, I'm really probably channeling the anxiety of millions right now at this moment where it's just fuck, I mean, what is going to be the outcome? You know, what the fuck is going to be the outcome?
|
Sam:
[9:24]
| And look, the vibes for Harris in the last week have been good, but you know, you can't trust vibes. No, that's the thing. I mean, the, the, the story of the last week has been that the Harris folks are like two weeks ago. The Harris folks were all sort of sort of depressed Democrats were wetting their pants. As they say, everyone was nervous. The poll numbers were bad, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then in the last week, vibe wise, that reversed and the Harris people got all excited and the Trump people started getting it.
|
Ivan:
[10:03]
| But vibes don't win, you know, vibes don't win, you know, votes win. So I don't know, man, you know, it's.
|
Sam:
[10:12]
| And people are trying to read tea leaves into the early vote numbers, the attendance. And that's never been a good indicator.
|
Ivan:
[10:21]
| Of anything you know i mean it's it's you know so we sit here and we you know we're here a little bit earlier than that that we thought because we we're idiots.
|
Sam:
[10:36]
| I mean well i i am an idiot i i had it fixed in my head fixed in my head the week we changed time was next weekend, I don't know why I had that stuck in my head because I knew they moved it because it used to be the last year. It used to be earlier and they moved it later, but they didn't move it as far as I thought they moved it. And I was just like confused. And so I said the time wrong on last week's curmudgeon score. I said the zero UTC correct, but I converted it into Eastern correct.
|
Ivan:
[11:09]
| Yeah, we converted it to Eastern time incorrectly.
|
Sam:
[11:11]
| I said 5 p.m. where it's really, well, 5 p.m. Pacific where it's really 4 p.m. Pacific. and you know that that translates accordingly to whatever three hours later is on the east coast.
|
Ivan:
[11:23]
| I'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i think i'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i i i really i'm just.
|
Sam:
[11:32]
| By the way people on the live stream feel free to introduce yourself in the comments oh shit right.
|
Ivan:
[11:38]
| That that yeah wait hold on i have to go on the i have to open that link as well.
|
Sam:
[11:43]
| Was one of them so that you can view our own? Oh, so you can see the chat.
|
Ivan:
[11:46]
| Oh, so you can see the chat.
|
Sam:
[11:49]
| Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, look, this is a live stream of us reacting to results as they happen. So there's going to be a lot of like nothing. And, and actually like I I'm, I'm, I'm figuring like I've got, I've got my four up screen of like the, the four news channels on my phone, like in front of me, like I've got, I've got four screens of computer, but YouTube TV on the computer doesn't do the four up. so i've got the four.
|
Ivan:
[12:18]
| Up on my phone yeah it's so weird there are choices on that i know i i mean they're both baffling fucking choices but.
|
Sam:
[12:27]
| Here's the thing is i have the volume way down so like i'm not actually hearing if they say something important you know so so oh hey bruce is on.
|
Ivan:
[12:36]
| Yeah bruce and bob bruce and bob hi both.
|
Sam:
[12:39]
| Of you and uh yeah go oliver yeah right right bruce.
|
Ivan:
[12:43]
| I think he got some votes somewhere i saw oh.
|
Sam:
[12:47]
| I'm sure i i predict he will be the worst performing libertarian in 20 years.
|
Ivan:
[12:53]
| Wow well i i did see some i i can't remember where i was which state i was looking at but they were showing whatchamacallit stein had gotten some votes somewhere uh let's see i think was in kentucky i'm.
|
Sam:
[13:11]
| Sure she's getting.
|
Ivan:
[13:12]
| Votes i mean no no but it wasn't no it wasn't stein no i it was actually rfk jr and i'm like you know he got like 20 votes or something and i'm just like you know uh hi hi.
|
Sam:
[13:27]
| I am cuckoo too i am cuckoo too wants to know are orlando's numbers really better for trump this is richard.
|
Ivan:
[13:34]
| Ah yeah richard as far as i went in i said the answer is no i'm looking at it right now but here's a problem look you can't look too much into these numbers they don't consider mail-in ballots yet i thought the mail-in.
|
Sam:
[13:50]
| Was the first ones that is that in florida are they last in.
|
Ivan:
[13:54]
| Some states they do the mail-in first and some they add them last so and and every precinct has to report numbers tonight, still. I mean, I'm looking at it like right now and it's saying Orange County is 5841. So I don't I don't recall off the top of my head what that number was the last time. I don't have it here, but but but certainly that's, you know, so that's now that they don't they don't they add those at the end. So now now there's a lot of the tabulation. the tabulation that the florida pulls in large part is electronic i mean they they they calculate and scan everything with these machines and so they they yeah so now because you could because you could deposit like mail-in ballots i remember just up until today right so yeah so i don't i I don't think that's got that in there, but like what we were just mentioning, you shouldn't read much into anything into these first early numbers yet, even though you've got a lot of like returns already in. So I don't know. I will say that. I don't know. I don't know.
|
Ivan:
[15:23]
| Um you know but but look getting florida was i mean anybody you know in this election cycle the way things had been going i mean a couple of cycles is always a stretch i mean it's nothing there's no polls that really indicated that florida was i mean that that harris had i mean We were counting on, an error, but Florida polls were not great. So, I don't know. Do I seem happy?
|
Sam:
[15:55]
| I'm not sure. You seem stressed, which is understandable. Like you said earlier, I think everybody in the country was, yeah, like regardless of which side you're on, you're probably stressed about this. Like what's going to happen where? Like, well, I don't know. It's like if you've bought into the idea on either side that, oh, we got this, then maybe you're feeling good right now. And maybe as the night progresses, you'll feel less. So maybe we'll feel less. So, but yeah.
|
Ivan:
[16:32]
| I'm going to look at the answer. What was the result in it in Orange County showed 61 38 the last time. And so let's see. What does it say? Oh, why did this thing move on me? Right now, it is showing, from what's been reported, Orange County, 58, 40, 41. So it's close, but it's only 60% of the vote in. Osceola County, 51, 48, which is just south. That one actually, right now, does look better. But again, this is a problem where you've still got so much of the vote. outstanding that it's no I don't I don't know so, I don't know. And one of the things about anything that happened late in the election with Florida specifically, which made it very difficult for Florida, is that if you weren't registered 30 days before the election, anything that happened late wasn't, you know, you couldn't go and register late. That just wasn't a possibility. So that was something that was definitely not a possibility.
|
Sam:
[17:57]
| So um so i finished i finished my little spreadsheet i probably should have done it in google sheets so i could share it but i did it in excel because i'm dumb and so just as the starting point like what i've what i've done is taken basically only the ones that were classified as weak in my averages the ones under five percent which in the end and it varied over the course of time but in the end ended up being exactly the seven states that everybody is talking about everything else sorted it out to the sides. But that leaves us at, because the only states called right now are completely unsurprising states, Vermont, Indiana, and Kentucky, none of which anybody thought was in contention. So we still have the range of possibilities, depending on how these seven states go right now, are from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86. You know, so.
|
Ivan:
[18:51]
| We've got to narrow down.
|
Sam:
[18:53]
| Yeah. And like, you know, that won't narrow down until the, one of those seven states gets called, which may be a while yet. But in the meantime, I think what we're looking for is from the other states that aren't one of the core seven, can we gather hints of what's happening based on is that, are there states, you know, whether it's a red or blue state, is it redder or bluer than expected, you know, in terms of what's happening? now the problem is with those kinds of stuff like okay indiana has been called that doesn't mean we can look at indiana and get any sense of is it redder or bluer than we thought it was going to be correct because it's just they can call it early because right because they don't flow out.
|
Ivan:
[19:42]
| Right but they don't expect well but they don't expect that whatever the end result.
|
Sam:
[19:47]
| Is going to.
|
Ivan:
[19:48]
| Be even if it's narrower is going to.
|
Sam:
[19:51]
| Matter right like right for the for the call that like my estimate has indiana at 14.4 percent in my average right now but all they're all they are saying when they declare it done is it's definitely going to be trump like they're not gonna say like no they're not gonna be like oh yeah indiana is you know it's coming in 18 instead of 14 so trump's doing really well or or the other way around i mean maybe we can dig into some of those numbers but the thing is those numbers are going to be slow to come in too. It's easy to tell if a majorly red state is going to stay red or stay blue. The things that might give some hints are if they don't call states like Ohio fairly quickly. Ohio is, it's not like Wyoming. It's red, but not that red. And so, but they still should be able to, if Ohio, like my average has Ohio at 7.8. If Ohio is anything like 7.8, they should be able to call it really quickly after Ohio closes. If it takes them a while.
|
Ivan:
[21:04]
| Bruce is asking the question about, and I think you were just mentioning it, that it's too soon to tell whether they are tracking close to the polls yet. What the information they have provided is not enough to say. because we just know they just know they're they're going to win i mean if you look at indiana which has been called for for trump only 15 percent of the vote is in right i mean it's just you know but which they don't expect scientists you know right so it's just not yeah we just can't tell yet i mean what what it means so now i mean we just really can't tell what it means.
|
Sam:
[21:45]
| So what's your favorite site this time around to track these numbers as they come in? New York?
|
Ivan:
[21:50]
| Well, I've got, I have three of them up right now.
|
Sam:
[21:55]
| Okay.
|
Ivan:
[21:55]
| So I've got this, you know, for, I got on one screen here, I got Decision Desk HQ.
|
Sam:
[22:03]
| That's a good one. That's a good one.
|
Ivan:
[22:04]
| I've got the New York Times to the right. And I've got the Washington Post over here. i have a bloomberg up on one screen but they pretty much feed off i'm pretty sure off decision desk so uh it's just more for the video news of what's going on so basically those are the ones that i'm pretty much looking at right now uh but i i don't know i just feel sick.
|
Sam:
[22:32]
| Yes oh oh let's see how.
|
Ivan:
[22:35]
| Has decision.
|
Sam:
[22:36]
| Desk called more they've they've got uh trumpet 28 already instead of some teens. So are they calling?
|
Ivan:
[22:42]
| I see 28. South Carolina.
|
Sam:
[22:45]
| South Carolina. Let me move South Carolina into the column. Another non-surprise.
|
Ivan:
[22:50]
| Right. Yeah, they called South Carolina, yeah.
|
Sam:
[22:54]
| Decision Desk HQ, by the way, usually calls things faster than almost anybody else. Not always, but a lot of the times. But they haven't gotten them wrong, but they're more aggressive about calling things relatively quickly.
|
Ivan:
[23:09]
| Yeah. my witty repartee today is fantastic I mean right now Georgia accounting is, Florida accounting is going pretty quickly they're at 64% but I know that there's a lot of votes that come in late from some of the bigger counties that's just been historically the case, but we just don't Thank you. But it's, you know, like, see, or some of the bigger counties, like Orange County has 60% of the votes in Palm Beach County, 74% of the vote in, like right now, Broward has 72%, Miami has 77%. now so i mean it's 64 percent of the vote in florida right now so but i mean it's 53 46 to trump i mean it's not that's that that's kind of like in line with a lot of the pollings polls so, uh yeah i'm not not not does new.
|
Sam:
[24:21]
| York times have a needle this time.
|
Ivan:
[24:22]
| No they did not part of it had to do with i don't know it failed.
|
Sam:
[24:29]
| Utterly the last couple of times.
|
Ivan:
[24:31]
| Well no they were talking about part of it that they were had been working on setting it up but the tech guild strike that they had had impacted them oh right uh and setting it up and they said that they were going to try to see if they could do it but but that they maybe not you know it it It seemed like that might not be the case. So as far as I checked multiple times, and yeah, they don't seem to be gearing up for the need.
|
Sam:
[25:03]
| Right. So we have a few polls closing in just a few seconds.
|
Ivan:
[25:08]
| Well, we got a full 730. We got the time coming in right now.
|
Sam:
[25:13]
| Oh, yeah. I had, I had a nice little page somewhere with like all of the closing times.
|
Ivan:
[25:20]
| I had it up somewhere and I forgot where the hell I put it.
|
Sam:
[25:25]
| Yeah. I'm finding it here. Here it is. I'll share, I'll share it in the, the chat for everybody. I just have to, of course I, here we go. You know, I hate how they go. We can now project that the race in North Carolina is too close to call.
|
Ivan:
[25:44]
| Thank you. Thank you so much. That's so, that's so.
|
Sam:
[25:47]
| Uh, it's, or worse when it's just, they can project it's too early to call. Like that's not a projection. Just say you can't project North Carolina yet.
|
Ivan:
[25:59]
| Yeah, that would be nice. 7.30 p.m. Poll closings. Four states. North Carolina. Who else? I don't know. Look at the map. North Carolina.
|
Sam:
[26:14]
| So Bruce mentions initial CNN exit poll. Georgia independent voters favor Trump over Harris.
|
Ivan:
[26:21]
| Oh, let's see.
|
Sam:
[26:23]
| My take of just looking.
|
Ivan:
[26:25]
| Exit polls have been terrible like the last few years. It's been one of those. with it. I mean, I'm not saying that they may be wrong like right now, but it's just, it's just never, I mean, it's just not been a good indicator.
|
Sam:
[26:38]
| Well, yeah. And just poll average wise. And I put this in my latest blog post on electiongraphs.com that I posted like less than an hour ago. But like, if you'd look at the trends in each state, rather than looking at just the final average, just to see where it's been hovering, I would still give Georgia to Trump. If there is not a systematic polling error, if there's a systematic polling error that everything's underestimating Harris or even everything's underestimating Trump, it looks like Georgia was just averaging a very narrow Trump lead consistently for the last couple months. so the all the only way harris wins georgia is if there's a systematic error and it the polling was just missing some harris voting voting like the the the close ones the ones that in the end like if you look at those trends the three blue wall states all really look too close to call unless okay.
|
Ivan:
[27:39]
| We got another state called you're gonna be it's a shocker i know.
|
Sam:
[27:43]
| Okay i'm ready to log it.
|
Ivan:
[27:45]
| Trump when it's west virginia.
|
Sam:
[27:47]
| Oh my goodness i never ever ever would have guessed that yeah stunning we uh so we have still not changed the overall picture like every call is an expected call and that's probably going to be like the first couple hours of this is every call is an expected call like because anything that's at all surprising even if the initial things look like that they're going to hold off until they're really really sure you know like if there are indications that wait a second iowa really is going to be blue like the seltzer poll said they're not going to actually call it the first time it looks like it might be blue and.
|
Ivan:
[28:32]
| Another non-surprising call they're calling that the senate that the west virginia democratic Senate seat is going to, you know, the Republican, whatever his name is.
|
Sam:
[28:44]
| Yeah. No one was surprised by that. I mean, as we've said for years on the show, like the fact that Manchin held that seat as long as he did was somewhat of a miracle.
|
Ivan:
[28:56]
| Yeah. Yeah. So, um, so those are the only ones that see any returns on North Carolina. I don't see any, any numbers feeding into anybody here yet. North Carolina. No, no.
|
Sam:
[29:14]
| One thing about Georgia and Jim justice in West Virginia was his name.
|
Ivan:
[29:18]
| Yeah. Whatever fucking name is. It gives a fuck. Sure. Cause one of the things that many were concerned. and polls had shown this before is about it and it's it really you know talks about what the demographic change that's happened in florida especially with many new arrivals into miami is that right now trump is winning miami um 55 44 now palm beach county where i live he's losing and he's losing broward county which is in the middle like by a wide margin 60 40, But that had been, you know, data had shown that he had the possibility of capturing Miami-Dade. And right now, with 80% of the vote in, it's showing he's up 55-44. Like Broward County is the polar opposite, which is like 60, 30, 90 the other way. And, you know, where I live is like 52, 47 right now, based on the polling that's been, has been reported.
|
Sam:
[30:24]
| So, so Harris is leaving North Carolina at the moment with 2% in.
|
Ivan:
[30:28]
| Oh, well, yeah, well, it doesn't mean anything.
|
Sam:
[30:33]
| No, it doesn't mean anything yet. because and i mean i'm sure if i was actually listening to the talking heads on the various channels like i see steve kornacki on msnbc and uh what what's his name uh king was it king on cnn i forget but they're going through their maps and pointing county by county and like where are the returns in and when or when they aren't and they would be telling you a little bit about like you know are the places that are in so far is this what we're expecting to see from those places or is it a surprise but i've got the volume down pretty low so i can't actually tell what they're saying well.
|
Ivan:
[31:07]
| I mean well you're asking about that i'm looking at like wake county which is raleigh.
|
Sam:
[31:12]
| I mean it's.
|
Ivan:
[31:13]
| 70 30 harris like right now.
|
Sam:
[31:15]
| Well right the quick but are all the places that are returning votes so far north carolina the cities basically yeah yeah.
|
Ivan:
[31:23]
| Basically if you look at the map the the the places that you've got is really raleigh and the biggest one that's that's returned as Raleigh and a whole bunch of actually other small places. Actually, a lot of other small places, and they're all showing blue. And these are a lot of small, smaller areas. Yeah. Wow. Okay. I mean, yeah. I mean, like Watauga County, pretty small county right now, only 4%, but 60-40 to Harris. So yeah, you've got that going on. No, Virginia with 8% of the vote in Harris is ahead 65 to 32%. I mean, it's... I mean, Virginia is one that Harris is expected to take.
|
Sam:
[32:15]
| Oh, what? There we go. I was wondering why my electoral vote count of what was called was off by one. And it was because I eyeballed wrong. And instead of moving South Carolina to the called category, I moved Missouri. Let me fix that.
|
Ivan:
[32:31]
| Okay. Well, that would, yeah.
|
Sam:
[32:33]
| Now everything's good. Not that either one of those would have been surprising states in any way, but. so let me look at that poll closing times when is the first that we actually think is gonna i mean well florida but like when's the first real swing state it's it's i mean north carolina is the first one that's a swing state that's open and obviously they're starting to trickle in results uh well like 7 30.
|
Ivan:
[33:04]
| North carolina ohio.
|
Sam:
[33:05]
| Yeah it's early eight o'clock it's eight o'clock 8 p.m. we get Pennsylvania and Michigan, and those will be big. But those are also ones where you get like these weird effects of like, like in Pennsylvania, like they can't, they couldn't start counting the mail-in ballots until polls close. So they haven't even started that. So like some other states, like as soon as polls close, they dump the results for all the mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania can't do that. Pennsylvania starts counting at that point. Okay. Bob says, ABC says Harris isn't doing as well in Florida as Biden did, at least so far. I got a thing on Twitter. Trump is not Twitter on Mastodon. Trump is underperforming in Georgia, a red County Trump down versus a blue County Harris up recalled Trump lost Georgia in 2020. So he has to improve his numbers. Otherwise he loses again. And they're like passing along some looks like some maps from MSNBC.
|
Ivan:
[34:04]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[34:05]
| So we'll see. I mean, actual count wise though, Trump is still ahead in Georgia.
|
Ivan:
[34:14]
| Yeah. Yeah, but if you look at where it is being reported, Georgia, it's mostly very rural areas, like right now.
|
Sam:
[34:23]
| The opposite of what you were saying in North Carolina, where the cities are reporting first.
|
Ivan:
[34:26]
| Yeah, yeah. You had like Raleigh reporting first. Yeah, so that was like the thing. I mean, the biggest one was like around Raleigh, where you had that first, so that impacted. But yeah, Georgia is totally the opposite at this point. Yeah. I mean, the interesting thing is that, as I'm looking at these. yeah i mean i don't know florida not looking at the end i forget about florida florida's like i i would right now just don't don't even bother just put it in the trump i would at this.
|
Sam:
[34:58]
| Point yeah 75 percent of votes in 54 45 right now yeah.
|
Ivan:
[35:03]
| Yeah it's not happening.
|
Sam:
[35:04]
| That that's like a bigger that like just in terms of whether it's on i was it's around.
|
Ivan:
[35:11]
| The same as the last it's it's looking pretty close.
|
Sam:
[35:14]
| Well yeah but i'm just saying the poll averages were just over five percent right now so if it's a 10 margin it's he's doing better than the polling said correct.
|
Ivan:
[35:22]
| Yeah yeah yeah.
|
Sam:
[35:24]
| Oh that's nice some county some county in georgia has gotten seven bomb threats in the last hour that's nice at the vote you know the the voting office or whatever, always lovely they are extending you know in the places affected by bomb threats they're giving them more time to vote.
|
Ivan:
[35:44]
| No I would, Well, Ohio with 4% of the vote in, it's not surprising right now. Trump's ahead. So, ah, it's almost a surprise.
|
Sam:
[35:57]
| I'm playing around with the interfaces for New York Times, Washington Post, and Decision Desk. I don't like the Washington Post one.
|
Ivan:
[36:04]
| Yeah, it's not great.
|
Sam:
[36:07]
| Just the UI on it kind of sucks.
|
Ivan:
[36:11]
| So far, the one that I've used that has the best UI is New York Times.
|
Sam:
[36:16]
| Yeah, I would agree with that. DDHQ does have a president win chance percentage that's updating live. They have Trump at 64.3% right now. Hey, which is really close to where I had him. My final average, 63.6%, or not average. That was from my uniform states model was at that. So, ta-da. Let's see, does New York Times have anything like that? You know, that's what their needle would have been, but they don't have.
|
Ivan:
[36:51]
| Right, but they, no needle. Well, we really got 15 minutes before, really, we get an important data dump of anything that is going to be consequential right now at this point.
|
Sam:
[37:03]
| Where's the, how do we get to the main stupid election page? I'm just on the homepage of the New York Times right now, and they've got all the key information.
|
Ivan:
[37:11]
| No, there is a link. If you go to election, it clicked on president.
|
Sam:
[37:16]
| Looked on president. Okay. There we go. Ah, yes. Same thing, but bigger. Nice.
|
Ivan:
[37:22]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[37:24]
| And let's see. Yeah. Florida is looking like a decisive win for Trump. Uh, so the one thing we can say about Florida is that the fact that Florida is not looking like it's where its polls are, is that, We're probably not talking the scenario where there's a blowout. I think we're looking more like that. It's going to be a nail biter after all.
|
Ivan:
[37:58]
| Oh yeah. Um, I think, well.
|
Sam:
[38:00]
| One thing, unless it's the Trump blowout, the Trump blowout could still be indicated by this.
|
Ivan:
[38:05]
| Well, here's one thing. It also, I will say it, the Harris campaign never actively campaigned here. They, they, they, They did not.
|
Sam:
[38:18]
| It was like one visit. They came once.
|
Ivan:
[38:21]
| I mean, and I have to say that, yeah.
|
Sam:
[38:25]
| They did a little bit of advertising, but it was aimed at Donald Trump personally. It was like, it was on shows they knew he was watching meant to irritate him. It wasn't actually selling to the state.
|
Ivan:
[38:39]
| Point is that, obviously, their internals told them that there was no point in doing it. And, and, you know, they, they had, I mean, I had not even been, I, you know, I've heard of so many people canvassing and working and doing stuff or whatever. And in other cycles, I had been approached to do that. I was never even approached in this cycle and I know I'm in their database to do that. So, so that indicated to me that they, they, they pretty much, you know, knew that this was, you know, whatever the result was going to be, it was going to be bad. And I did not see them really make any effort whatsoever.
|
Sam:
[39:14]
| Well, and I heard someone on TV earlier today, once again, it was somebody who used to work for Howard Dean and lamenting, as we often do, the death of the 50-state strategy during the early Obama administration.
|
Ivan:
[39:28]
| Sure.
|
Sam:
[39:28]
| It's like such a lost opportunity that, I mean, and I realize it costs money, but like you kind of got to play everywhere. It's not just for the short term. It's for building up for long term. And if you completely abandon entire areas of the country and basically just say, well, I can't, we're not going to win there this year, so we're not going to do anything.
|
Ivan:
[39:51]
| I think that is a way to make it worse over time. The future is worse. And that's what they've been doing in Florida. You know, that's just a reality. I mean, there was no, there was no canvassing. I mean, there's just no, no, nothing. There was just no activity. Nothing was done. So, you know, I'm not surprised. You know, even with messaging that may have turned positive for certain things, it's just, you know, there was nothing to turn that into, into votes. Right. Really. So, yeah. I mean, so, so we're now some 49 Eastern.
|
Sam:
[40:27]
| Oh, here we go.
|
Ivan:
[40:28]
| Yeah. Oh, 10 more.
|
Sam:
[40:30]
| 49, not 50.
|
Ivan:
[40:31]
| 49. You got me excited for a second. 49, not 59. 49 so um.
|
Sam:
[40:38]
| Yeah, I keep looking at the numbers in the states that are open, but they're like North North Carolina is dribbling and it's only at 2%. You can't say anything about that.
|
Ivan:
[40:49]
| George is at 14%.
|
Sam:
[40:51]
| Virginia is coming out as as a healthy Harris by 10, which like the average the poll average there was Harris.
|
Ivan:
[41:00]
| Five. so.
|
Sam:
[41:02]
| So we have like on the one hand trump overperforming by like five percent in.
|
Ivan:
[41:06]
| Florida and harris overperforming but in virginia in.
|
Sam:
[41:10]
| Virginia so no overall like trend yet.
|
Ivan:
[41:14]
| Right right right and.
|
Sam:
[41:16]
| Then maybe there won't be you know each state could go its own way you know.
|
Ivan:
[41:20]
| Well that's i mean that's one of the things where i i you know i know that you you had your uniform swing versus individual saying and i have to say that seeing the dynamic difference that's happened between georgia and florida over the last 10 years yeah it really shows me that man there is no uniform swing hey i it it really i mean there there is here's the thing so this is why something that moves like one or two points i always usually say it's somewhere.
|
Sam:
[41:48]
| In between those two extremes.
|
Ivan:
[41:50]
| Right but.
|
Sam:
[41:51]
| I think it's closer to uniform swing and even though you have individual states go all over the place and wild in general like if the pollsters are systematically doing something wrong the same pollsters play in all of the swing states.
|
Ivan:
[42:07]
| But they tend to get between georgia and florida they've gone listen georgia was predicted for trump last time and it went the other way and and democrats have overperformed in Georgia, whereas it's been the opposite the last couple of election cycles in Florida.
|
Sam:
[42:26]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[42:26]
| It's just been, they've been swinging, they've been swinging a different, in polar opposite directions. And so, I mean, I do listen, there is a thing of like, hey, is there some uniform effect? Yes, there is. But I do think that the bigger effects right now that we're having in the in the polls are far more local 80 to 90 percent than any of the uniform swing that it does. There is some gravitational pull, like, at the large extent, but, man, there are certainly very big local dynamics that are in play in these states, like, right now. Because I just don't see how these two states, you know, in this region have moved in such polar opposite directions.
|
Sam:
[43:13]
| Well, if it makes you feel better, Yvonne, like, my independent states odds for Harris, like, uniform swing, I have it at 36.4%. independent states is down at 13.5 because it makes it so that like you know all it takes is one of the the the key blue whatever it is the the blue belt whatever the yeah yeah yeah you know wisconsin uh michigan and pennsylvania the blue wall all it takes is one of them going the other way and you're done.
|
Ivan:
[43:45]
| The blue belt.
|
Sam:
[43:46]
| And so if they all move in the same direction then the chances of one of them going the wrong way. Like if you only did one of the three, you basically have a one in three chance that one or two in three chance that one of them goes the other way. You know, I'm not doing the math right, but it's easier for one of them to lose than for all three of them to go the wrong way.
|
Ivan:
[44:08]
| So, you know, it's like Arizona, take 10 to 13 days, Nevada, November 9th, Georgia says several days. I'm looking at when they could have final tallies for these states.
|
Sam:
[44:21]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[44:22]
| Depending on where they are. Florida, because they've tightened it up pretty quickly. So they're getting everything in like right now pretty quick. They're at 80% right now reporting.
|
Sam:
[44:32]
| Florida's fast. Florida's fast. I imagine they'll call Florida pretty soon.
|
Ivan:
[44:37]
| Yeah. Well, I already did.
|
Sam:
[44:39]
| I know you did. But I'm not a, you know, I wait for somebody official to call Florida.
|
Ivan:
[44:45]
| Somebody official. I'll do these two calls. You can make a column of my calls. I'm calling Virginia right now for Harris.
|
Sam:
[44:56]
| There you go.
|
Ivan:
[44:57]
| And I'll call Florida for Trump. There you go. All right, I'll do my two calls. And I'm going to call New Hampshire for Harris, too. There you go.
|
Sam:
[45:07]
| So, uh, DDHQ has, let's see, Paris is ahead in Ohio now with 11% reporting. That would be interesting if that happened.
|
Ivan:
[45:19]
| Okay. That would be, I mean, that would be, I mean, that would be, you know, uh, uh, uh, uh, an earthquake.
|
Sam:
[45:27]
| I think, I think we're still early because we've got Columbus and Akron have reported and then a bunch of rural areas. So, yeah.
|
Ivan:
[45:36]
| Yeah. No Cleveland, though.
|
Sam:
[45:38]
| No Cincinnati.
|
Ivan:
[45:40]
| No Dayton. So that still leaves a lot unreported from the big areas. But here's the interesting thing. In Decision Desk, they have Harris up 55 to 44 on Decision Desk. Looking at New York Times, they have it Trump up. They have only 8% of the vote reporting in New York Times, whereas we got about 11% in on Decision Desk. So they've Now Ohio is up to 10% and New York Times just updated. Still Trump ahead there, but yeah.
|
Sam:
[46:13]
| Yeah. And Decision Desk's version of the needle is swinging up. They're up to 65% Trump now.
|
Ivan:
[46:20]
| Mm-hmm.
|
Sam:
[46:22]
| Four minutes till the next batch of states. See, the thing is, of course, the states you care about are all the close states that will take the longest to call.
|
Ivan:
[46:34]
| Hey pennsylvania what does it say here about the vote counting in pennsylvania counting is not expected to extend beyond election night primarily because election workers are not allowed to start pressing mail ballots until election day oh no counting is expected to extend beyond election night so yeah so they're not going to finish tonight, michigan says oh it's also slow okay all right by the way we're up to five people.
|
Sam:
[47:00]
| Here thanks Everybody who's here, feel free to introduce yourself in the chat. I see Pete has joined us. Yeah. He says, please repeat everything we said for the last hour. Only funnier.
|
Ivan:
[47:10]
| Oh, only funnier. I fucking hate this. We don't know shit yet. And I called Florida for Trump and Virginia for Harris and New Hampshire for Harris.
|
Sam:
[47:28]
| I also mentioned that both Florida and Virginia have wider margins than expected.
|
Ivan:
[47:37]
| But in the opposite direction.
|
Sam:
[47:39]
| But in the opposite direction. So Virginia is bluer than the polls indicated. Florida is redder than the polls indicated.
|
Ivan:
[47:45]
| Right. yeah i mean in decision deaths right now harris is up 54 to 40 54.8 to 43 percent in virginia so yeah.
|
Sam:
[47:54]
| Which by the way is yeah the same percentage as ohio at the moment, yeah that's 11 percent in yeah the problem with these 11 percent in and things like that is it matters which 11%, you know? And it also matters the balance of male versus in person.
|
Ivan:
[48:17]
| Fulton County has reported 767 votes. 700, not 767,000. I mean, 767. Where are we now? It's 758.45. So we'll get a batch of information pretty soon. we'll.
|
Sam:
[48:36]
| Probably get some quick calls on a few non-surprising states and then a bunch of calls that say too soon to call on any state that matters yeah.
|
Ivan:
[48:48]
| Bob is saying that he posted a link that is showing the moves i'm not i don't i don't see where you posted that link though bob uh it's not on the slack or we're like i don't i don't i don't see it on yeah i don't see it post it again post it again yeah post it again.
|
Sam:
[49:08]
| Oh, less than a minute till the next batch of states.
|
Ivan:
[49:11]
| Oh, I also called, you know, oh no, that's, that's officially called. Well, Trump went one West Virginia. Surprise, surprise.
|
Sam:
[49:19]
| I just got an alert about the South Carolina call, but that was a long time ago, at least from DDHQ.
|
Ivan:
[49:24]
| Yeah. It's been a while. Yeah. But it's probably somebody else because I know I saw it a lot of times and Washington Post didn't have it called.
|
Sam:
[49:30]
| But yeah. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[49:35]
| All right. It's eight o'clock.
|
Sam:
[49:38]
| Officially in the east what.
|
Ivan:
[49:40]
| Do we know we know nothing oh well okay decision desk called oklahoma and tennessee.
|
Sam:
[49:49]
| Not missouri no i.
|
Ivan:
[49:52]
| See oklahoma and tennessee for.
|
Sam:
[49:53]
| I'm looking i'm looking at decision jose i don't see i have.
|
Ivan:
[49:57]
| It up here what do you.
|
Sam:
[49:58]
| Want okay there we go i you know they're it's out of obviously got an auto refresh every few seconds and you got an update before me uh oklahoma missouri maryland.
|
Ivan:
[50:09]
| Is for harris.
|
Sam:
[50:10]
| Okay big surprise there too shocker uh let me move all of these over we got maryland we got massachusetts we got rhode island all as expected we got as you said oklahoma oklahoma missouri oh we'd already moved Kentucky, Indiana, already moved. Who did I miss? That's it. That's all the new ones, right?
|
Ivan:
[50:43]
| Mm-hmm.
|
Sam:
[50:44]
| Oh, no, Mississippi and Alabama.
|
Ivan:
[50:46]
| Oh, Mississippi and Alabama, too. Yeah. Also shocking developments. But no additional data. Okay, I see some data trickling in in Washington Post on, I mean, on the New York Times on on pennsylvania they've got uh three percent reporting harris up 72 27 with three percent but three percent means nothing i know where is it it's pittsburgh go go go go pete there you go 72 27 you guys are knocking it out at a park there you go connecticut and massachusetts i've been called for harris okay.
|
Sam:
[51:28]
| I already got massachusetts i'll move connecticut.
|
Ivan:
[51:30]
| And rhode i already.
|
Sam:
[51:32]
| Got rhode island who called connecticut.
|
Ivan:
[51:35]
| Uh i see it here in the new york times they got they got connecticut okay.
|
Sam:
[51:39]
| I'm moving mine over if anybody calls them decision dust doesn't have connecticut yet yeah just compare and new york times doesn't have missouri yet but nine percent of the vote in in texas and harris is leading.
|
Ivan:
[51:53]
| Yeah yeah yeah it's all dallas yeah.
|
Sam:
[51:58]
| North Carolina is up to 6%. Harris still ahead. All still cities, I presume, even though I haven't clicked.
|
Ivan:
[52:04]
| Jesus, Harris. I mean, with 20% in Ohio, the lead is big.
|
Sam:
[52:10]
| Still leading. Yeah. With 26%, according to New York Times, and Harris is still ahead by 10%. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[52:16]
| I mean, it's a large number of votes. It's 140,000 votes.
|
Sam:
[52:22]
| Is it still all cities, though? Let's click through.
|
Ivan:
[52:24]
| There's some rural areas reporting, too, but the cities. but mostly where to most of the people are. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[52:30]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[52:30]
| But that's where most of the people are. I mean, how much was the total? I mean, I mean, yeah, it's a lot of ground to make up as well.
|
Sam:
[52:37]
| Well, yeah. But what, what we need to know is for all those counties, how does it compare to what is expected in each county? And I don't know that we have that yet.
|
Ivan:
[52:47]
| No.
|
Sam:
[52:48]
| Okay. I'm going to listen to this for a second. Yeah. This time, maybe Texas for Democrats, Pete says.
|
Ivan:
[52:56]
| I'm not holding my breath pete.
|
Sam:
[52:58]
| No he he was saying my entire life this is what i've heard is what he's oh yeah.
|
Ivan:
[53:03]
| Well yeah yeah.
|
Sam:
[53:05]
| Well within our lifetimes texas did have blue people like blue people yeah blue man group what it was only the the 80s that still had like that's right they.
|
Ivan:
[53:18]
| Had a democratic governor.
|
Sam:
[53:19]
| Yeah and senators and such.
|
Ivan:
[53:21]
| And senators yeah i forgot about that.
|
Sam:
[53:27]
| Called florida no wow gee yeah i know you'd already called florida, oh let me do that um i think i'm yeah i'm not i just don't like the washington post interface every time i click it i'm like i don't like this no it's it's.
|
Ivan:
[53:44]
| Terrible it's really terrible it's it's really bad i i just i have it up but i'm not i'm just looking at what they update but I'm barely using it. I'm really more toggling between New.
|
Sam:
[53:56]
| York times and DDHQ.
|
Ivan:
[53:58]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[53:59]
| For anybody else following along, let me, let me, I'll put the links in the chat to both the DDHQ page and the New York times page. If you haven't followed them, found them yourself just so we can do that. Where's my mouse? There's my, of course, every once in a while I should flip over to Senate and stuff, but.
|
Ivan:
[54:19]
| Ah, fuck the Senate.
|
Sam:
[54:23]
| Oh, Rick Scott wins. Speaking of Senate.
|
Ivan:
[54:26]
| Yeah. Yeah. Well, Michigan has some votes and I see 2% New York times. See what it says. Harris way up.
|
Sam:
[54:36]
| 2% and it's all.
|
Ivan:
[54:39]
| It doesn't actually show where. Oh, near Detroit. Oh, Detroit suburb. Yeah. But not, not Detroit itself, but Detroit suburb.
|
Sam:
[54:46]
| This Ohio one is really intriguing.
|
Ivan:
[54:49]
| I know.
|
Sam:
[54:50]
| Like that would, that one would be a surprise.
|
Ivan:
[54:54]
| That one would be a shocker. Yes, absolutely.
|
Sam:
[54:57]
| And I mean, only 30% in, but it it's that leads hanging on so far.
|
Ivan:
[55:03]
| But yeah, I mean, because North Carolina Harris is up, but it's only 7% reporting. So that's not, you know, that much, but, but Ohio is, is, is there's, they've got 30, they got a third of the vote in and it's, it's a, it's a substantial lead it's 140 000 lead you know vote lead it's not a small lead so and and.
|
Sam:
[55:23]
| If if ohio goes that's a indication of michigan and pennsylvania.
|
Ivan:
[55:28]
| Yeah and wisconsin yeah um but.
|
Sam:
[55:32]
| Like i don't know this is one.
|
Ivan:
[55:34]
| Of those where i i don't know it's just too yeah it's still too early And most of it's from the.
|
Sam:
[55:41]
| The, yeah.
|
Ivan:
[55:44]
| I know.
|
Sam:
[55:45]
| Well, Donald Trump has taken the lead in Texas with 17% in.
|
Ivan:
[55:50]
| Yeah. Jeez. Okay. Pete, there you go. There goes, there, there goes your, yeah, no, no more leading in Texas.
|
Sam:
[55:59]
| I think what everybody's looking for, for Texas is Ted Cruz.
|
Ivan:
[56:02]
| It's the 50, 50, 49, by the way. Oh, yeah, I know.
|
Sam:
[56:05]
| It's still close, but.
|
Ivan:
[56:07]
| But, but yeah. Ah, how counties are shifting there you go so so bob just shared that map also let's see i got that up now or here another screen so okay this is a good thing so florida is showing that it went redder which that was like the information that we saw but dude this thing is showing ohio is going way bluer yeah big time bluer yeah that.
|
Sam:
[56:36]
| Would be huge.
|
Ivan:
[56:38]
| Yeah and it's showing big time bluer in ohio holy shit and.
|
Sam:
[56:43]
| That's 17 electoral votes that's almost as big as pennsylvania.
|
Ivan:
[56:47]
| And and and in in in in georgia it's also showing that you know where biden won is also bluer as well but the ohio number is the one that's really interesting we're showing that it is significantly bluer shit oh god don't don't fuck don't don't don't don't fuck with me don't don't play with me numbers man don't don't fuck with me don't don't don't don't play this game come on well at least that mob map from from the washington post is better than that yes that one is good Yeah, their main one is terrible, but this is good. Yeah, this one is definitely very good. But damn. Virginia, 31%. Let's see. Ugh, come on.
|
Sam:
[57:40]
| Let's see what you get. 1% in Kansas trumps ahead.
|
Ivan:
[57:45]
| Oh, well. Well, the margin in Virginia has gotten tighter. It's now about 51.47. So that's about four points.
|
Sam:
[57:52]
| Which is about what was expected.
|
Ivan:
[57:54]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[57:55]
| I mean, my, let's see, what was my Virginia average? 6.1, Harris by 6.1.
|
Ivan:
[58:02]
| Now, the interesting thing is that the map that they produced for in here, it's not showing North Carolina. swings yet but actually there are some that is showing that it's definitely two some of the votes that are coming in well no the the one but the ones that are showing up is showing that north carolina definitely bluer in the places that it that votes have been coming in than before.
|
Sam:
[58:23]
| Well bottom left hand corner of north carolina look there's some red arrows there.
|
Ivan:
[58:28]
| Yeah but if you look at the top like around where raleigh where the big population center it's got a blue arrow there the other way so but it's just very but very little data very little data very little data ohio they've got a lot more data and they're showing it's that that map is like it's is the polar opposite of of uh of of florida.
|
Sam:
[58:50]
| Right i've got i've got my four up news channels here on the the phone and none of the four have mentioned ohio yet as that as i can see so i'm wondering why not because it just.
|
Ivan:
[59:01]
| It does seem interesting i mean i don't know these fucking people older talking about is bullshit all days. Why don't I'm not even listening to what the fuck they're saying, for God's sakes. I don't know. There's like just a lot of dribble gibberish.
|
Sam:
[59:17]
| Okay, they're talking about Michigan.
|
Ivan:
[59:19]
| Well, the Michigan votes then, but that's 2%. I mean, whatever.
|
Sam:
[59:22]
| Yeah, no.
|
Ivan:
[59:22]
| Pennsylvania is up to 5%. The margin is ridiculous.
|
Sam:
[59:26]
| Yeah, yeah.
|
Ivan:
[59:27]
| I mean, no, no, no, no, no.
|
Sam:
[59:29]
| It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
|
Ivan:
[59:31]
| Yeah, but dude, dude, it's 76 to 23. Okay, all right, that's not, you know... I mean, it's 76 to 23. It's not, you know, it's, I mean, that number is like beyond overwhelming.
|
Sam:
[59:46]
| Right. Yeah. Well, yeah, the New York Times definitely has the best interface here for like clicking into states and seeing details and blah, blah, blah. Like DDHQ is sometimes faster with some of the information, but New York Times has the best interface.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:01]
| Yeah. Yeah. In order to dive into what's going on. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:00:05]
| And oh, oh, DDHQ.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:06]
| By the way, the DDHQ margin, the chance is dropping like a rock all of a sudden.
|
Sam:
[1:00:12]
| Yeah, and they've colored in Ohio leaning blue. They haven't called it yet, but they've colored it in leaning blue.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:21]
| They've got Pennsylvania leaning blue.
|
Sam:
[1:00:23]
| And North Carolina.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:24]
| They've got Michigan leaning blue. And Virginia and North Carolina.
|
Sam:
[1:00:26]
| That's right.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:27]
| That's game over.
|
Sam:
[1:00:28]
| That's game over if that's the case.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:31]
| Holy fuck. It's a Christmas miracle.
|
Sam:
[1:00:36]
| Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:38]
| Listen, if that's true, I'm going to cry. I mean, I'm serious. You're going to have me crying here.
|
Sam:
[1:00:45]
| I'll take losing Georgia if you get North Carolina and Ohio. Like, no, Ohio wasn't on anybody's radar.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:52]
| No! No! I mean, I mean.
|
Sam:
[1:00:56]
| There were a couple of points. Let me, let me look at my Ohio graph for a second. There were a couple of polls showing it close, but they look, they were outliers.
|
Ivan:
[1:01:08]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[1:01:09]
| Like there was a, there was a Miami university poll in Ohio that actually just came out a few days ago, but was in the field like the last week is in the field, October 28th to October 30th that had Trump only had by 3%. But also in the last week, there were a whole bunch of other polls showing him up six, up seven, up as high as 12, like in Ohio. So that Trump only up by three in Ohio was definitely an outlier. So I don't know if this is a situation. Oh, Ohio's down to 51-48, according to New York Times, or 37.
|
Ivan:
[1:01:47]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I get that.
|
Sam:
[1:01:48]
| So this may slip away. like that though.
|
Ivan:
[1:01:51]
| This by the way decision desk has it at at 54 to 45 still okay by the way but but i do they do they don't have as many votes yeah yeah so that yeah it's 1.6 million versus let's see what's the number so.
|
Sam:
[1:02:05]
| I think i think this is a blue.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:06]
| Moron wait no no no no wait they have more yes yes yes they're looking at 1.6 million votes in in in ddhq versus oh versus new york times only has about two now they're up to two million now they're up to two million okay.
|
Sam:
[1:02:25]
| New york times is 36 percent in uh.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:28]
| Yeah now that oh.
|
Sam:
[1:02:30]
| Man that was exciting to think about for a few seconds.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:32]
| It's still that it's still you know still.
|
Sam:
[1:02:35]
| In play it's still in play it's still closer than people thought maybe but.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:39]
| No and the map listen like i said the the the the map that we're looking at is still showing that ohio is definitely bluer right the the the the map on the on the washington post is showing that that is that that is still the case it that that has not changed, And the change in Georgia, the changes look slight. You know how they show the arrows where there is some slight red movement, but there's also a blue movement in Georgia. But if you look at where the blue movement is, it's in areas of larger population. So that one is, you know.
|
Sam:
[1:03:24]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:25]
| Well, by the way, North Carolina is still four point lead, but 9% in, but I'm not, I'm not sure where.
|
Sam:
[1:03:32]
| Pete says Ohio always does this. The cities report first and then a 98% rural counties overwhelm them.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:39]
| No, but, but, but the one thing is Pete, the different, the thing is that the Washington Post map is showing that there is a substantial swing towards blue votes in everywhere. which doesn't ohio which.
|
Sam:
[1:03:51]
| Doesn't mean harris will win but it looks like it's going to be closer than it was.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:56]
| Correct four years ago right but but basically all the arrows are blue i mean every single one and and and and and and and the shifts are here's the one thing it's not just the shift the shifts that they're showing are large i don't know if you're looking at you know the size of the arrow in terms of size of the shift if you look at it there's a lot of very large arrows in in that ohio map they're not small new.
|
Sam:
[1:04:21]
| York times calls hi a likely r they have a little they don't have the real needle but they have like a little icon of the needle they're calling pennsylvania toss-up michigan a toss-up north carolina toss-up.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:34]
| Oh i oh yeah yeah i see georgia.
|
Sam:
[1:04:37]
| Toss-up that's not really.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:39]
| Helpful it's not very helpful new york times and there's a reason apparently why you fucking shut this thing off let's see what about north carolina toss-up yeah they got north carolina toss-up what time is wisconsin close well.
|
Sam:
[1:04:55]
| Let me check my map wisconsin 9 p.m eastern 9 p.m.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:00]
| Eastern listen i will say this though the ddhq percent chance is that it is swung substantially hard the other way.
|
Sam:
[1:05:09]
| Yeah they are now at well 61 percent trump.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:13]
| Yeah but that but that's actually down from 72 yeah and but no but it's it's down from like where it started this is like the lowest it is it started tracking is what i'm looking at right now yeah their their.
|
Sam:
[1:05:26]
| Current projection is 276 electoral votes for trump 262 for harris.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:30]
| They started at around 61.60 they started they started around 60 and right now it's well it's it's around the same number it swung up but then it it it pushed back down as these returns came in oh what says.
|
Sam:
[1:05:46]
| Pete says the needle just came back there it is the needle is there.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:50]
| I'm gonna call new jersey for for, Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. There it is. Basically, yeah. And what is a show? Toss-up.
|
Sam:
[1:06:00]
| With a slight lean towards Trump. Which is what the polling said before we started tonight.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:07]
| Correct. Basically, that is not new information.
|
Sam:
[1:06:11]
| Yeah. Now, of course, what everybody on the Harris side was all hyped about was, looks like the polls are all wrong and they're missing something.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:19]
| We don't know that yet.
|
Sam:
[1:06:21]
| We still don't know. We still don't know.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:22]
| Yeah, we still don't know that yet. So, I mean, that's the one thing. None of that we will know tonight, or the polls, right?
|
Sam:
[1:06:32]
| I think the one thing we're seeing now, unless we get a real huge surprise somewhere, is that it really is close.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:41]
| It really is close.
|
Sam:
[1:06:43]
| Like we had said, there's a whole range of possibilities. Well, there's still a whole range of possibilities, but that whole range could be determined by a whole bunch of states that really are close. like the problem.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:55]
| Is the electoral college magnifies things did you create my column of called states i i did.
|
Sam:
[1:07:00]
| Not create a column for you.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:02]
| I'm you're an asshole.
|
Sam:
[1:07:03]
| You can create your own damn spreadsheet.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:05]
| You have a spreadsheet hi manu well he can't hear you but yeah mono he said he said hi can you say hi i'm.
|
Sam:
[1:07:14]
| On i'm on headphones too yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:16]
| You want to say hi talk to a microphone hi oh there you go okay all right there you go kansas is showing blue in one map but but uh yeah the legal says very likely are but it's showing it's hilarious seven.
|
Sam:
[1:07:33]
| Percent still close is it city oh much more data on the like changing states the changing counties thing.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:42]
| Lots lots.
|
Sam:
[1:07:43]
| Of virginia redder than last time.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:45]
| Kentucky redder.
|
Sam:
[1:07:47]
| Than last time florida redder yeah redder and georgia so far.
|
Ivan:
[1:07:54]
| Kansas is showing bluer the arrows that have come up way bluer ddhq.
|
Sam:
[1:08:00]
| Has kansas leaning blue at the moment.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:03]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:08:06]
| They still have a violating blue needle needle needle.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:10]
| Here's an interesting thing you know we're talking about cleveland ohio with 40 percent of the votes reported right yeah well the reality is that even from the cities they've only reported 40 percent of the votes from the cities and and that margin is overwhelming in the cities still but but they're reporting it's not like they already it's 100 of columbus or hamilton county or cuyahoga that's reported it's cuyahoga is 33% and Harris is up by 70 to 30. We got Franklin County is 70-30 as well, but only 40% of the votes. So there is still quite a lot of, and Toledo, the same 40% of the votes, 63-36. So you've got, yeah, I mean, that margin in Ohio has been shrinking. And right now it's like, actually in in the new york times data showing like right now trump leading by 0.1 but but there's still a lot of votes also from from it's not like they they shot their load from from the big counties and there are still not votes to be counted right that's what it's it's looking at right right now so and actually i'm looking at the smaller counties they've reported larger percentages are you looking at ohio still yeah yeah donald.
|
Sam:
[1:09:30]
| Trump has taken the lead in ohio now.
|
Ivan:
[1:09:32]
| Yeah by 0.1 yeah yeah yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:09:35]
| That's why they didn't talk about ohio yet but it is closer it is close oh it's way closer florida abortion thing lost wow wow florida rejects proposal to include right to abortion in state's constitution.
|
Ivan:
[1:09:57]
| I'm speechless about that one. I mean, if you won't even vote for that, then... Wow.
|
Sam:
[1:10:04]
| Toss up. Scanning all these states.
|
Ivan:
[1:10:09]
| I mean, I figured that even if they voted for this orange clown in Florida, they would have... By the way, legalized marijuana is only 55% as well. The abortion rights won 57%. so yeah no they didn't uh it's yeah so they they needed it's the threshold is well over 60 percent in order for that to trump's.
|
Sam:
[1:10:35]
| Taking the lead in virginia 40 in still expected to go the other way but if you look at that county swing map virginia is all heading red.
|
Ivan:
[1:10:45]
| Yeah yeah yeah of course it It also depends on who's reporting right now.
|
Sam:
[1:10:51]
| Yep. DDHQ's Trump win odds are back up to 71%.
|
Ivan:
[1:10:58]
| Yeah, I see that. Well, Harris has a healthy lead in Michigan right now with 5% of the vote in. And with 80% of the vote in Pennsylvania as well, but very early still.
|
Sam:
[1:11:11]
| Yeah, those are still tiny numbers.
|
Ivan:
[1:11:13]
| Yeah. I mean, the needle has Virginia still lean deep, even with those votes, and North Carolina is still a toss-up.
|
Sam:
[1:11:21]
| I'm not feeling as good as I was an hour and a half ago. Next poll's closing in five seconds.
|
Ivan:
[1:11:31]
| Who's closing now? Well, I didn't feel very good to start, so not exactly. I didn't feel good at all the entire time.
|
Sam:
[1:11:46]
| Arkansas.
|
Ivan:
[1:11:47]
| Well Arkansas got called by DDHQ for Trump.
|
Sam:
[1:11:51]
| Yeah I just added that I am off by one electoral vote what am I missing for oh okay now that's right four to 30 South Carolina okay.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:01]
| I will call Illinois for but you're not tracking me every rural county that they are showing in Ohio Look, in the Washington Post map, it shows the shift by, and it's, all the small counties are D plus a significant amount.
|
Sam:
[1:12:23]
| But probably not enough.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:24]
| I mean, like D plus 9, D plus 8, D plus 8. die i mean it's not insignificant that's what i'm trying to say.
|
Sam:
[1:12:40]
| Who do we have here what else did they do delaware uh.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:46]
| Okay yeah sure.
|
Sam:
[1:12:47]
| Like my total i have the same states marked off as like these sites but my total doesn't add up the same and i've checked the votes in each state and they match so i'm like where did i get like where did i get 101 one. That doesn't match the states they lit up. You know, whatever. Okay. Hey, to the folks watching on the live stream, I see there are seven of you now. So if you haven't introduced yourself on the chat, feel free to jump in and say hi on the chat. Or not. You can stay quiet if you want. It's fine. Oh, the needle says Harris is on track to win the popular vote, though.
|
Ivan:
[1:13:26]
| Great. Thanks.
|
Sam:
[1:13:28]
| Trump has pulled ahead in North Carolina with 14% in. Still ahead in Virginia.
|
Ivan:
[1:13:34]
| Oh, yeah. By 20 votes. Yes. In North Carolina.
|
Sam:
[1:13:40]
| I know. I see it. I see it.
|
Ivan:
[1:13:42]
| I see it. It's not a good... Yeah, by 20 votes.
|
Sam:
[1:13:49]
| Imagine if that was what the margin ended up as. You know, Donald Trump's lawsuits would go nuts.
|
Ivan:
[1:13:55]
| Oh, God.
|
Sam:
[1:13:57]
| Or Harris's if it went the other way. Yeah. A 20-vote margin, anybody would sue over.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:02]
| Well, I think it's automatic recount.
|
Sam:
[1:14:04]
| Well, that depends on the state. I don't know about North Carolina.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:06]
| But I don't know what the North Carolina rules are either. Yeah. So here's the interesting thing, Sam. Decision Desk is receiving more vote totals for Ohio. And Harris is ahead. And Harris continues to be ahead in Ohio at 35%.
|
Sam:
[1:14:29]
| Well, but New York has 42% in.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:32]
| Yeah, but my question is, of course, which percentage should they have? Because the thing is that they keep, it's, you know, depending on where they're sourcing their data. the one thing is that the ohio one in in decision desk is consistently showed, showing it the other way so but but obviously you know it all depends on where you know the votes are that they're collecting are being reported from i'm gonna try to see if i can look at some of the.
|
Sam:
[1:14:54]
| Oh dc that's the one vote that i'm missing they they gave dc dc has been called.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:59]
| Yeah well oh my god i'm so shocked sam yeah wait no that's that's.
|
Sam:
[1:15:05]
| Not what i was missing but what i'm missing a red, I'm really missing a red. Let's see, for example.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:10]
| I'm looking at in the New York times. Okay. So I'm just comparing, I haven't looked at both, both, both, uh, both of the data Franklin County, which is where Columbus is. And they've got 40% of the vote in, okay. And in New York times and decision desk, they've, yeah, they've only got 38% of the vote in. So that's the big difference between one or the other. However, here's the thing. I would add a lot more votes to. So I don't know. So that's the one thing. It's very interesting how they're getting their data because they're obviously sourcing it significantly differently at this point.
|
Sam:
[1:15:47]
| Jonathan wants to know when Trump is going to declare victory.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:51]
| Tonight?
|
Sam:
[1:15:52]
| No, but what time?
|
Ivan:
[1:15:54]
| Oh, gosh, I don't know.
|
Sam:
[1:15:56]
| I'd say Bannon chastised him like last week for waiting till two in the morning to declare victory last time and said he should do it at 10 p.m. So I'm going to guess 10 p.m. Eastern.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:07]
| Oh, 250,000 votes over here. They've got, it's very interesting. They've got the same number of votes in Columbus.
|
Sam:
[1:16:18]
| Oh, they've got Illinois. Illinois just called, you called that a while ago, but.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:22]
| Oh, geez. Well, North Carolina right now in, in, it's a much bigger lead for, for in, in New York times, like right now that, uh, that it was, and they they've got it. They've got it shaded leaning red on, on DDHQ right now.
|
Sam:
[1:16:38]
| Yep.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:40]
| 51 to 48. Virginia is a lot closer. Fuck.
|
Sam:
[1:16:44]
| Robinson lost in North Carolina, though. Expected.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:48]
| Robinson was a Republican?
|
Sam:
[1:16:50]
| The crazy governor. The crazy governor who, like, Nazi porn or whatever it was.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:55]
| Oh, okay. All right. Well.
|
Sam:
[1:16:57]
| This is going to come back to the blue wall states again, because it doesn't look good so far for the other potential pickups that Harris had.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:06]
| No. No. No. Not at all. No. Yeah, this is crazy, but you realize that right now Texas is close. I mean, which I guess makes sense given how much effort put into the states. I mean, Texas is closer than Florida. Florida is a blowout number.
|
Sam:
[1:17:25]
| Well, there wasn't a lot of effort put into Texas either, except for Allred, but not necessarily for Harris.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:33]
| Yeah, but geez, it's not even, I mean.
|
Sam:
[1:17:36]
| Just checking just checking senate results cruise is a head right with 50 of the votes in by how much 59.4 to 48.7.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:48]
| Wait 51.4 to 48 you said 49.4.
|
Sam:
[1:17:54]
| To 48.7.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:55]
| 49.4 to 48.7 49.4 to 48.7 it's that fucking close yeah with two with how much reported uh 50 holy shit that's Tight.
|
Sam:
[1:18:08]
| Needle is moving redder.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:10]
| Not by much. say 43 what what are the next states that close at nine o'clock.
|
Sam:
[1:18:26]
| Let me check my map you want nine o'clock closings louisiana iowa wisconsin new york minnesota nebraska south dakota wyoming colorado new mexico arizona.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:38]
| That's an interesting bunch at nine o'clock yeah i'll tell you what But Ohio is still super tight. I mean, what they're saying here in the data, which is that Columbus County still only reported, I don't care which source you look at, New York Times or so, only 40% of their votes. Cleveland only shows 33. And Cincinnati with only 37. I mean, Harris is winning all three by 65 to 30, you know, 35 March, 70. I mean, almost like 70% to 30. I mean, if that's accurate, that's a big number of votes that have still not come in there in those. Whereas I'm looking at a lot of the smaller counties, their percentages of reported votes are a lot higher. They're north of 50% almost every small county that I've that I've clicked on.
|
Sam:
[1:19:48]
| But there are a lot of them. They add up.
|
Ivan:
[1:19:51]
| No, but but Sam, it's not. It's I know what you're saying. I know what I'm saying. I'm the it's it's. it makes it very close. It doesn't, it's, it's, it makes it extremely close. Give it because yeah, Sam. Yeah. There are a lot of them. Yeah. Great. But you know, you know.
|
Sam:
[1:20:10]
| I mean the bottom line from that Washington post chart is Trump lost a lot of ground in Ohio, no matter what the, but the thing is he had a lot of ground to lose.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:21]
| The question is, hello.
|
Sam:
[1:20:26]
| Margin in Texas is up to 6% now.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:28]
| More, more like expected.
|
Sam:
[1:20:30]
| More like what? Oh, for Cruz. Cruz. 2%.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:37]
| I really hate him.
|
Sam:
[1:20:40]
| The house map is slowly filling in too, but it'll be a long time until we know what's going on. I mean, some of the key purple seats are in California. California takes weeks. And New York isn't all that speedy either.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:59]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:21:02]
| Harris is still ahead in Kansas. 28% in.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:06]
| Let me see what's reported in Kansas. Not Wichita. Hey, my wife is home from pole duty. What? Hey, where are you going? What happened? No, we won't. We're live. well well you can you can save you're tired, I can get a kiss. Is that allowed? Yes. All right. Thank you.
|
Sam:
[1:21:39]
| What the hell? New York Times doesn't have the county breakdowns in Maine. I'm not county. Congressional district breakdowns.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:46]
| Oh.
|
Sam:
[1:21:47]
| And they matter in Maine and Nebraska. Does DDHQ have it? No. DDHQ has changed Ohio to leaning red.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:56]
| Yeah. Yeah, they did. Well, now they've got, now their number, yeah, they're reporting. they're at about the same reporting 43 45 percent.
|
Sam:
[1:22:06]
| Or it's 65 in Georgia now and 5 percent more do I think see unless all the missing votes are in Kansas is.
|
Ivan:
[1:22:15]
| Showing extremely I mean Oklahoma actually I'm looking at Oklahoma and I'm looking Kansas both of them are showing extreme moves to blue but but.
|
Sam:
[1:22:25]
| But but they're so red it doesn't you know matter but yeah wow well not enough like that the whole thing we were talking about earlier about the 50 states strategy it should not be ignored even if they don't flip blue if ohio and kansas and oklahoma are bluer than they were four years ago that's something to pay attention that.
|
Ivan:
[1:22:48]
| Helps with the house.
|
Sam:
[1:22:49]
| Well maybe not.
|
Ivan:
[1:22:51]
| You know, when, when you, when you invest enough time over time, over time, not, not in one cycle, but it's just, the problem is that you can't just not invest in it and just leave it, you know, um. Yeah, I mean, they did call Oklahoma for him.
|
Sam:
[1:23:11]
| MSNBC is saying what we were talking about like an hour ago, that it does look like the public polling that said things are close was roughly right. Like the idea that it could be off in one direction and either Donald Trump or Harris could actually end up with a blowout tonight.
|
Ivan:
[1:23:33]
| So basically, the HLs that they did made it be closer to accurate.
|
Sam:
[1:23:40]
| It looks that way.
|
Ivan:
[1:23:42]
| It's looking that way so far.
|
Sam:
[1:23:43]
| Now, even still, if we've got a bunch of close states, the electoral college margin could still be big on either side. Correct. Because, you know, a 0.01% difference in a close state moves the entire set of electoral votes from one side to the other. but i hear you but it looks like this is going to potentially come down to several really close states now we're already like unless something changes dramatically and soon it looks like north carolina and georgia are not going to be two of those close states it could well be like what i'm in unless we see like a surprise in arizona or something and recent polling and if it looks like polling has been accurate. Arizona was getting red over the last couple of weeks, but unless we have a surprise from out there somewhere, Arizona, Nevada, whatever, it's the blue wall states again. It's Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the ones that it's all going to come down to here. I had Michigan and Wisconsin slightly bluer than Pennsylvania. So if they come through, it'll all be Pennsylvania. So we'll see. But of course, At this point, any one of those three could still go red, too. They could all go red. Donald Trump could still sweep all the close states. That's still very possible right now. Oh, New York Times has a shift page, too.
|
Ivan:
[1:25:10]
| Hmm?
|
Sam:
[1:25:11]
| New York Times has a shift from 2020 page as well.
|
Ivan:
[1:25:14]
| Oh, they didn't. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:25:16]
| Except I just lost it. I hit them.
|
Ivan:
[1:25:19]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:25:20]
| Oh, there you go. Yeah. Now they only have, like, they don't, they're missing a bunch of states that Washington Post has the, for that margin by county live forecast. Yeah. Interesting pages.
|
Ivan:
[1:25:38]
| Ah, well, this page, those are good. Wisconsin close at nine, Iowa at nine, Minnesota at nine. Okay. Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:25:47]
| Pennsylvania is so misleading. It's all the, it's all the population center. It's Pittsburgh and Philly. It's Pittsburgh and Philly and the suburbs. They're on.
|
Ivan:
[1:25:56]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:25:58]
| Oh, did I, I already have New Jersey. New Jersey has been called. Did I? Nope.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:03]
| Yeah. New Jersey has been called. it is but not a lot of their votes only like for example philadelphia is only like 16 percent of vote 13 percent of the vote it's still but it's still a small percentage of the uh.
|
Sam:
[1:26:17]
| Of the of the ones where the total vote of the ones where the expected margin was under 10 the only one called yet is florida and it went and it went in the direction it was expected to go but by more than it was expected to go yeah by by a decent amount if florida is an indication of anywhere else but again ohio is going to opposite direction um ohio.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:40]
| Is going to totally opposite direction so that's.
|
Sam:
[1:26:42]
| And and virginia is virginia as well well virginia is going in the red direction virginia is much closer i mean trump's in the lead in virginia right now so now they still have it as lead d on new york times yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:57]
| Yeah and so it.
|
Sam:
[1:26:58]
| Must be well and wait wait usually that wait wait ddhq has called virginia for harris though okay so no wait wait wait like yo i i respect ddhq for their early calls they they look at the trends early but they called it for harris while she was behind you know and i well i know but i think because of why it's because of where it is where the remaining votes are i know i know but it's just it's just like it just seems in congress well actually by.
|
Ivan:
[1:27:27]
| The way in in in in uh new york times right now.
|
Sam:
[1:27:30]
| I'm gonna move it though no.
|
Ivan:
[1:27:31]
| She's still behind no she's still behind she's still behind but but, She's still behind it.
|
Sam:
[1:27:37]
| Okay, so Virginia is the second state that's been called that had a margin under 10. Although, like I said, DDA HQ feels early on this one, but DDA HQ is very good. Very good. I wish Pennsylvania and Michigan would report faster, but I know they're both going to be reporting for days, probably.
|
Ivan:
[1:28:04]
| Yeah, and Ohio. margin is definitely moving the other way the one thing is that i and i saw this in the last, election where ohio is very confusing in the in the way that i've seen how they report percentage of votes that that are yet to be counted okay where i the last couple of times i've seen these where it says that oh but there's a lot of votes leaving in the cities for whatever reason what i recall is that it didn't materialize in that way right which is why i think that that that you know the new york times is showing it as likely are right now period because of now that of that information tennessee.
|
Sam:
[1:28:49]
| Called to another non-surprise.
|
Ivan:
[1:28:52]
| A non-surprise i see did you put down kentucky because i see kentucky.
|
Sam:
[1:28:57]
| Yeah it was one of the very first ones called.
|
Ivan:
[1:28:59]
| I see missouri also called yep.
|
Sam:
[1:29:02]
| Got that it was also a while ago oh i get it though the ddhq's number bars on the top the 128 versus 67 include all the leaning states not just the called states.
|
Ivan:
[1:29:13]
| Okay they.
|
Sam:
[1:29:15]
| They should there should be two colors there oh oh michigan is leaning blue.
|
Ivan:
[1:29:20]
| Not called.
|
Sam:
[1:29:21]
| Yet like by ddhq they just changed the color.
|
Ivan:
[1:29:23]
| No but yeah but it's leaning blue yeah yeah oh 15.
|
Sam:
[1:29:29]
| And 9 come on It's all going to come down to these three fucking midwest states and they're going to be like, we're going to be waiting days. Which, by the way, everything so far is lining up with the poll averages as they were. Without corrections.
|
Ivan:
[1:29:52]
| We're not having... The one thing is, we're not having... I mean, we're not having the situation.
|
Sam:
[1:30:01]
| Yeah, we're not having the situation where, oh, my God, the polls were missing X, Y, Z. And really, it's 5% bluer or 5% redder than what the polls were saying.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:11]
| Except in Florida. Except in Florida.
|
Sam:
[1:30:13]
| Except in Florida.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:13]
| Yeah, except in Florida.
|
Sam:
[1:30:14]
| Well, and Virginia. Virginia is about 5% redder than it was looking to.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:19]
| Well, not with the final tally. At this point, it's like, obviously, I mean, the fact that the DHQ called it is because they believe that that's going to wind back up again. So, you know.
|
Sam:
[1:30:33]
| Yeah, but we don't know by how much. But yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:36]
| We don't know by how much, but yeah. All right. So.
|
Sam:
[1:30:39]
| Nebraska, too early to call. They're making some calls now. We just passed nine o'clock.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:43]
| Well, Nebraska over here says it's called.
|
Sam:
[1:30:45]
| Colorado, too early.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:46]
| No, Nebraska over here says called. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:30:51]
| MSNBC.
|
Ivan:
[1:30:52]
| Both New York Times and whatever have Nebraska, South America.
|
Sam:
[1:30:55]
| But they're not splitting Nebraska. Oh, my God. Like, is Nebraska 2 going to go blue like everyone expects or not? It needs to be separated out. Okay.
|
Ivan:
[1:31:05]
| They have two electoral. How much?
|
Sam:
[1:31:07]
| Well, it's got four. It's got Nebraska has five. So two are for the statewide number and then one for each.
|
Ivan:
[1:31:14]
| Okay. All right. So they've got one that is two of them are.
|
Sam:
[1:31:17]
| Okay. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming. We got all kinds of states happening. Let's see, Wyoming, and let's do the North and South Dakota, Nebraska, all moving not over.
|
Ivan:
[1:31:32]
| Look, the one interesting thing that, you know, Ohio, the needle has it.
|
Sam:
[1:31:36]
| There they go. New York Times, I didn't notice. They have the congressional districts over in the right-hand corner for Maine.
|
Ivan:
[1:31:43]
| Oh, okay. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. They have them at the bottom. Yeah, that's right. So, Ohio, New York Times does have it, likely are. Yeah. But North Carolina, no. They just have a toss-up.
|
Sam:
[1:31:55]
| Slightly leaner.
|
Ivan:
[1:31:56]
| It's been toss-up. It's still a toss-up. That's the one that's... Decision Desk is calling Ohio for Trump. They just did.
|
Sam:
[1:32:06]
| Okay. I'm moving Ohio. Okay.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:09]
| So whatever they're seeing.
|
Sam:
[1:32:12]
| Closer than expected, but still are.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:14]
| Still are. Yeah. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:32:17]
| Oh, and they called Nebraska three as well, which is not surprising. It is the reddest electoral vote in the country.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:24]
| Arizona polls closed, right?
|
Sam:
[1:32:26]
| Yeah. Arizona polls just closed. The few counties with arrows in Pennsylvania are towards the blue side. and pennsylvania was a was in 2020 was super super close so maybe that's a good sign and.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:42]
| Not just some the big blue arrows too.
|
Sam:
[1:32:44]
| Oh bunch of yellow things indicating updates see how's ted cruz doing leading by four percent now with 56 percent in ted cruz is going to pull.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:59]
| I'm not gonna make a choke about.
|
Sam:
[1:33:00]
| It bruce would like this new mexico so far donald trump and chase oliver are tied for the lead in new mexico yeah yeah yeah no votes for harris at all yet oh.
|
Ivan:
[1:33:14]
| Okay they've got 656 to 655 votes there you go.
|
Sam:
[1:33:20]
| That can't be real that can't even be.
|
Ivan:
[1:33:22]
| Real i don't know.
|
Sam:
[1:33:23]
| I mean even at less than one percent that can't be real and zero for harris yeah right uh yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:33:32]
| Whoa must be some libertarian colony.
|
Sam:
[1:33:36]
| Kansas harris still leading in kansas with 35 of the vote in but i'm sure that's all from the cities, i mean dbhq called kansas already for missouri is also harris ahead but likely not to stay that way because it's all st louis i iowa with less than one percent in trump is leading yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:00]
| All right let's see.
|
Sam:
[1:34:02]
| Louisiana louisiana no louisiana was called a while ago.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:07]
| Yeah colorado well colorado results are in i i heavily.
|
Sam:
[1:34:12]
| Heavily blue yeah as expected but not called yet no.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:18]
| I think it'll be called soon though.
|
Sam:
[1:34:21]
| Trump wins texas louisiana north dakota south dakota wyoming and kansas according to alert texas is now called let's move that over wait that number okay that didn't change okay okay we're still waiting for the big seven, So far, Michigan and PA leaning blue, which is what they need to be doing. But the percentages in are so small. Well, Fox is actually talking about Ohio right now. Do we have Ohio Senate?
|
Ivan:
[1:34:59]
| I mean, the decision has called up.
|
Sam:
[1:35:02]
| Ohio Senate? Not New York Times. Marino is ahead of shared broad. DDHQ called it for Marino?
|
Ivan:
[1:35:09]
| No, no, no, no, no, no. I was just talking about the.
|
Sam:
[1:35:12]
| Presidential.
|
Ivan:
[1:35:13]
| But they haven't called the Senate. DDSQ called the presidential, but definitely not the Senate. They still got it. It's undecided.
|
Sam:
[1:35:22]
| Bruce just said woohoo, so he must have just seen. There's a few minutes. The stream delays a little bit. There's some buffering. So we get the responses on the chat potentially a couple minutes after we say something.
|
Ivan:
[1:35:36]
| Of course. Oops. It's a few minutes delayed right now? I don't think it's a few minutes. i think it's a few seconds.
|
Sam:
[1:35:43]
| Let's see i'm gonna i'm gonna put my hand up one two three four five six seven eight nine nine seconds behind that's not that okay that's not that bad.
|
Ivan:
[1:35:58]
| That's not that.
|
Sam:
[1:35:59]
| Well at least to my interface over here like who knows well to me.
|
Ivan:
[1:36:03]
| It was about five or six more seconds later so yeah but but still it's 20 seconds it's not minutes.
|
Sam:
[1:36:08]
| Yeah, Karnacki is talking about various counties that are redder now than they were four years ago in North Carolina, which is why it's toss up but leaning Trump right now. The blue part of the needle is getting smaller, which basically says Harris can still pull it out, but it's going to be a narrow electoral college victory if he does, which it goes back to what I was saying. It looks like all of the potential pickups, well, not pickup even, Georgia was, you know, but it looks like Georgia and North Carolina are staying red this time, which basically means you need Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. There are some scenarios that involve Arizona, but Arizona was looking worse for Harris than Georgia was. So, you know, so if Georgia goes red, Arizona probably does too. Although this is one of the cases where they are very different states on very different parts of the country, but same time. Okay. New Mexico's fixed now. Now, Trump is ahead with 2% of the votes in, but we no longer have the situation with Harris nothing and the Libertarian tied for number one. And Jonathan asks about Florida. Yes, they rejected the pro-choice thing and they rejected marijuana.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:31]
| They rejected both, yeah. Wisconsin has like a tiny amount of votes in, nothing, like 700 votes.
|
Sam:
[1:37:40]
| New york times has about 3 000 now but still.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:43]
| Still tiny yeah nothing whatever trump.
|
Sam:
[1:37:46]
| Leading those 3 000 though.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:47]
| Yeah, yeah john but we we didn't answer that right yeah they rejected both yeah john yeah you know you're ready oh well i mean let's see new york times called a few more states nothing Like North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska.
|
Sam:
[1:38:07]
| They did that a while ago. I got those.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:09]
| Wyoming. But something added. Texas.
|
Sam:
[1:38:14]
| I got that. But it was the most recent one, I think. Hey, why are you in my chair? Once the food arrives, I'm taking my chair. Really? This is going to be one of those things where even if Harris pulls it out, it's going to be incredibly depressing that it was so close and of course there's still the very real possibility that Trump wins which will be even more depressing.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:42]
| Well New Hampshire do you have New Hampshire for Harris?
|
Sam:
[1:38:46]
| No did DDHQ just call it? Yeah okay I'm moving it over oops, Still, none of the big seven. And no state has been a surprise so far. Some of the margins have been surprising, but no actual state has gone.
|
Ivan:
[1:39:06]
| But let's be clear. We can call California, Washington, and Oregon for Harris. Okay. You know, why?
|
Sam:
[1:39:13]
| Well, my counts, like the count I have that says the range of possibilities is from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86 still remains because it does call all of those states effectively. It calls every state except the seven.
|
Ivan:
[1:39:29]
| So what I'm saying is that if you want to your EV count right now, look, I think I think I can safely say right now without the polls having closed that those three are going to and I can safely say that Utah is going to Trump, Idaho and Montana. I can call.
|
Sam:
[1:39:46]
| Well, I'll call for you. hawaii california maine's first washington new york colorado oregon maine maine at large also nebraska's first kansas louisiana montana utah and ida there you go those those are all the no-brainers that like right it would take a universe shaking event for one of those states to go the opposite direction exact exact you know and so far we haven't had a surprise in the next tier either that's like states like new hampshire and virginia and florida ohio texas yeah we haven't had a surprise in that next year and we haven't gotten we have yet to have the first call in one of the core seven um but at the moment we have you know it looks like north carolina and georgia are probably doing Trump, and the others are still too close to call not enough votes so yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:40:51]
| Now, look, well, I don't know. I was going to say, look, Georgia the last time. Well, the way that it went and why they are calling it is that.
|
Sam:
[1:41:01]
| It came back late.
|
Ivan:
[1:41:03]
| Very late. Yeah, it was very late. So that's the thing like where we're like right now when it happened, it was super late. So that's I think that's the that's the critical part to know about this, where I'm looking at Gwinnett County right now is only 18% of the vote and that has a lot of votes. I mean that has and Harris that is a very blue county, they've got 20% of those 60,000 so far it's like 300,000 votes to count still and that's not that's not in yet Fulton is in for the most part so that's a big one but that's a very big one that is not reported. And what I'm seeing is that most of the small counties are over 95% reported, which is why I think nobody's called Georgia because of that and what the margin is. So it's leaning R, but it's looking once again, as usual, as a fucking nail biter. In North Carolina, still 50-49. The margin is 40,000 votes. It's a very narrow margin as well.
|
Sam:
[1:42:23]
| If you remember in 2020, it was the closest state that Biden lost. It was also very narrow.
|
Ivan:
[1:42:31]
| Yeah. So it's definitely a good reason why this isn't called yet because it's definitely, the margin is still super tight. so yeah it's it's reasonable that neither ddhq or new york times haven't called these because of how the margins have been there so pennsylvania michigan still toss up wisconsin toss up, i mean with you know the votes in pennsylvania michigan harris is still in a solid lead but and the.
|
Sam:
[1:43:06]
| So in terms of percent win chance, DDHQ has Trump up to 69.2, and New York Times has him at 66, which again, I'll say, very close to what election graphs had, which doesn't make me happy, by the way. I was hoping that there was a massive underestimation of Harris and that we'd have a Harris blowout. That is not happening.
|
Ivan:
[1:43:31]
| Well well the one thing that you know we we're trying to make sure is that you know how many you know we know the pollsters have compensated and the question was by did they overcompensate compensate right that was the question it doesn't look like they overcompensated it looks like they've got it closer to what they've got it close to reality more than anything else um so the first arrows in iowa are showing big blue swings.
|
Sam:
[1:44:05]
| Yep well and iowa at the moment does have harris ahead at the moment but only 10 percent in and all from cities.
|
Ivan:
[1:44:13]
| Yeah all from des moines but still yeah but but they're showing arrows from like the smaller areas and those are i i see yeah yeah the air yeah that so the the blue arrow isn't from there from des moines it's showing okay you know whatever like plus six but it's showing some of the smaller counties like a d plus 12 yeah i'm looking at the other one is a d plus 11 another small county so so what is coming in, doorbell go off so much well.
|
Sam:
[1:45:06]
| Right now i think pizza's being delivered.
|
Ivan:
[1:45:08]
| Ah, okay.
|
Sam:
[1:45:10]
| Well, and the little ringy noise is not the doorbell. It's just motion detection in front of the house.
|
Ivan:
[1:45:17]
| Oh, okay.
|
Sam:
[1:45:19]
| Which makes the dog go crazy.
|
Ivan:
[1:45:23]
| Well, that's what I'm saying. It's very sensitive. Mine doesn't go off that often.
|
Sam:
[1:45:27]
| Well, I mean, someone was actually here. Although the most entertaining thing with the motion detection is when a spider builds a web directly in front of it and sets it off. like all the time until you go out and move the spider. New bomb threats at polling sites in Pennsylvania. Yay. Well, one thing I think I can say at this point is I kept saying, don't be surprised by anything in the range from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86. I think we're going to be in that range. We're not going outside of the range in either direction, I don't think.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:05]
| Well, that's for certain, Sam.
|
Sam:
[1:46:09]
| Well, I don't know. Trump could still surprise in Virginia or something.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:13]
| No, it's not happening.
|
Sam:
[1:46:15]
| I know. It's not happening.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:17]
| No, it's not happening.
|
Sam:
[1:46:19]
| Both New York Times and DDHQ have their odds in the high 60s for Donald Trump right now.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:27]
| It's got to be super close, Sam. My gut, this is going to be.
|
Sam:
[1:46:33]
| We're going to come down to one or more states that take days to come back. I think my bet is it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania, which is what it's been looking like for months.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:47]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:46:47]
| Like the the assuming the polls was right view had this all coming down to pennsylvania, consistent yeah for a long consistent.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:56]
| Yeah and that's what it's.
|
Sam:
[1:46:59]
| Now at the moment trump is actually leaving wisconsin which would break that but.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:04]
| Yeah that's very early he's still that.
|
Sam:
[1:47:08]
| Doesn't make uh pete feel good as a pennsylvanian, time to lower the chair lower the desk and sit down I've been standing up till now, sorry Pete I already read your redacted message.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:29]
| Oh my my well at least one thing my.
|
Sam:
[1:47:35]
| Gut basically.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:36]
| Was not wrong about how I felt coming into tonight.
|
Sam:
[1:47:39]
| No, I had managed to get up a, a buildup of optimism over the last few days.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:46]
| And no, no, but my gut was just completely just, there is no, there is, I mean, Brandy, it's not going to be.
|
Sam:
[1:47:56]
| You know, you can fill it in the upstairs sink. It's fine. I got pizza.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:03]
| Oh, there you go. I already, I'm not really hungry. Can I be honest? i ate a late lunch i'm.
|
Sam:
[1:48:12]
| Not liking the needles prepare you know i had had as a topic the potential topic the last few weeks preparing for a trump second term and we never actually discussed it.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:26]
| I didn't want to talk about it i know i know what i i don't i don't want to talk about it i don't want to fucking talk about it i don't want to fucking talk about it i mean i i i I mean, I don't know.
|
Sam:
[1:48:39]
| If and when it becomes real, then we'll talk about it.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:43]
| But I don't want to fucking talk about it.
|
Sam:
[1:48:45]
| Pete says Lucy in the football. But yeah, it's feeling, well, I was going to say, it's feeling more like 2016 than 2020, but I'm trying to remember 2020 in those three to four days.
|
Ivan:
[1:49:01]
| It was that that night was terrible. We thought, you know, it took three days for that to lift.
|
Sam:
[1:49:08]
| It was Friday before it was clear to anybody who was paying attention and Saturday until they made the calls on the network.
|
Ivan:
[1:49:16]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:49:19]
| I wouldn't be surprised if we're waiting until Saturday again. And it could go either way. Yeah, Jonathan says it looked bad for a while in 2020.
|
Ivan:
[1:49:27]
| Yeah, it did look bad. He's not wrong. I mean, I remember it looked bad. It looked, I mean, basically, this is deja vu all over again to that.
|
Sam:
[1:49:39]
| Pennsylvania is narrowing 26% in. It's 55-44 now. 53-45 in Michigan with 13%. Wisconsin's up to 11, and Trump's still ahead of 54-45. But Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:49:55]
| Yeah, I know. Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:49:58]
| Hey, we're up to eight people watching. So if anybody hasn't said hi yet, say hi in the comments. Nice to have you.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:05]
| Hi, guys. Nice to have you here. Sorry, we don't have better news.
|
Sam:
[1:50:10]
| We do have now maybe 40% of the.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:13]
| Voting I was hoping for better news but I well that probably I don't know how many could have been at the beginning of the stream I described as I came into this that the word I used to describe myself was completely I was glum I was not coming in optimistic, I had this terrible feeling I'm just you know so I mean, It's just, I'm not, I don't, I mean, I see a clear path based on where we are. It's just, you know, it's just. complicated i mean it's it's gonna be very tight.
|
Sam:
[1:50:53]
| Ddhq is called north carolina.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:55]
| Yep they did i mean and ddhq has harris ahead now in wisconsin so, who daddy's doing god damn, arizona nevada and all these well arizona closed at nine, eastern but i guess they're not reporting anything yet interesting who isn't arizona oh right polls are closed in arizona but they haven't first results expected.
|
Sam:
[1:51:28]
| Around 10 p.m eastern yeah most voters cast ballots by mail and counting typically takes days full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days, jonathan says i really thought women would save us it was real that was looking really big in the early vote numbers but same day maybe going the other way yeah or a lot of those women were voting trump well let me check in on the senate still no call in either the ohio race marina is still ahead to republican still no call in texas cruz is still ahead by about eight now eight percent now and marina's had by about three i keep looking at pennsylvania michigan wisconsin pennsylvania michigan wisconsin there's.
|
Ivan:
[1:52:22]
| Nothing there's too close to.
|
Sam:
[1:52:23]
| I know i know and small numbers in still pa is up to 31 but still but still yeah, New York times still has all three at pure toss up. Now there's NBC is just doing Illinois. I had that a long time ago.
|
Ivan:
[1:52:42]
| Yeah. That, that, uh.
|
Sam:
[1:52:45]
| I saw a tick tock earlier today about Florida, Yvonne, where this woman was like, you know, Florida could be a blue state. If you just stopped sending your old racists here to die.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:00]
| To. Okay. Okay, I did a quick count.
|
Sam:
[1:53:05]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:05]
| Okay. For Kamala to win, okay, this is what needs to happen right now. Okay. Just to get to 273. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:53:15]
| Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:17]
| Well, we'll start Maine. You know, okay, so.
|
Sam:
[1:53:21]
| I'm assuming.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:24]
| But in the ones, it's that, but plus Nevada. I don't see how you get to because I went and I'm like if I go with you can.
|
Sam:
[1:53:35]
| Get to a win without Nevada if you win every.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:38]
| Place she's.
|
Sam:
[1:53:39]
| Ahead in plus Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania just barely mind you and she needs that Nebraska congressional district without the Nebraska congressional district you.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:50]
| Have you need the Nebraska congressional district that's right I'm saying one of the Nebraska congressional district What I add that up is Nebraska congressional district. Okay. So let me just show you what I, what I, Maine congressional district. Okay. Uh, and I'll look at a New York times map and where it's at versus just to look at one where it's called. Okay. They got 99, 178 main, the two plus the one, one separate congressional district, New Hampshire. Okay. All right. Which that's, that's not called, but that should be.
|
Sam:
[1:54:23]
| You know, DDSQ called it.
|
Ivan:
[1:54:25]
| Nebraska too. Yeah, DDSU called it, but the New York Times hadn't. So I was just doing the math based on their account. Nebraska, too, which that should be, that's leaning that, okay? Yeah. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, okay? Colorado, New Mexico, okay? California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Nevada. That gets you to 273. It's not impossible, based on where the numbers are right now, but it's nerve-wracking, as all fucking can be.
|
Sam:
[1:55:01]
| And I'm looking at that moves, the Washington Post county moves map.
|
Ivan:
[1:55:07]
| And it's like.
|
Sam:
[1:55:09]
| The entire southeast is red.
|
Ivan:
[1:55:11]
| Oh yeah oh yeah yeah yeah the entire southeast went red as all can be well actually there's some there's some caveats north carolina north carolina actually didn't okay well if you're looking at well no look look there's a big hole in the middle but.
|
Sam:
[1:55:27]
| There's lots of red around the edges of north carolina.
|
Ivan:
[1:55:29]
| Yeah but but they're but but those are small it's it's not it's not like what you're seeing in in say you know tennessee no okay no The shifts in North Carolina have been more minor, okay, is what I'm saying. Georgia's got some deep blue moves in the big population centers and got red moves in the rest of the state. Ohio, as the night progressed, less blue arrows, but there's still a lot of blue with some red arrows. Pennsylvania is mixed. Definitely a redder Texas that you're seeing in this map. it's i mean new york is bluer pennsylvania seems to be looking bluer oh we got from the arrows that are coming in got.
|
Sam:
[1:56:11]
| A ddhq call for colorado.
|
Ivan:
[1:56:13]
| Okay well not a surprise not not another not shocking call, experts to figure that one out bottom line is that the result is as nail-bitingly as the polls, showed which some minor exceptions in some states where they didn't get it exactly right yeah that's uh yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:56:39]
| With yeah with the same rough breakdown of where the states were with Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania being right on the line very close. In my blog post earlier today, I said both of those I thought were true toss-ups. If the polls were roughly right, all three of those were true toss-ups, and then the rest of the seven were probably going to Trump, and that's what we're seeing right now. Yeah. That scenario... I don't know if you could hear rachel maddow behind me but now she just went over the scenario we just said trump wins georgia north carolina arizona nevada but and all the rest of the states go as expected, but harris wins pennsylvania michigan wisconsin that's a 270 to 268 win.
|
Ivan:
[1:57:36]
| Oh my god jesus christ, by the way.
|
Sam:
[1:57:43]
| Even the assuming the assuming Nebraska, if she loses that Nebraska congressional district, it turns into 269-269 and goes into the House.
|
Ivan:
[1:57:53]
| Well, right now, by the way, the 43% of the vote in Kamala is overwhelmingly ahead on the basket too.
|
Sam:
[1:57:59]
| Yeah, I know.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:00]
| Overwhelming.
|
Sam:
[1:58:00]
| I know.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:01]
| So it's not, that's, yeah, so that's, that's, that's that seems to be a given. Okay, she's going to get that one.
|
Sam:
[1:58:07]
| Hasn't been called yet, but yes.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:09]
| Hasn't been called yet but yeah but that but that looks like a gift okay that's that's and main district one as well so yeah those look like a gift and.
|
Sam:
[1:58:18]
| Main two is expected to go to trump.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:19]
| Yeah exactly yeah and.
|
Sam:
[1:58:23]
| Of course given what the rest of the map is looking at like harris has to win all three of wisconsin michigan.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:31]
| Pennsylvania oh no no they she's got to there's no you lose any one of them it's over it's all it's all over yeah yeah yeah sayonara yeah yeah She has to win those three. Now, thankfully, smartly, I will say, they fucking invested the shit out of China Windows 3.
|
Sam:
[1:58:49]
| Now, one, you could swap Wisconsin for Arizona, but she wasn't looking good in the polls in Arizona, so I'm not holding out a lot for that.
|
Ivan:
[1:59:00]
| Yeah, you need those three. You can't.
|
Sam:
[1:59:02]
| John asks, how do you think Joe would be doing right now?
|
Ivan:
[1:59:07]
| I honestly think pretty much the same.
|
Sam:
[1:59:10]
| I think he'd be doing worse. I think he might have been able to just barely pull it out in a world where Harris was doing much better than this. In the scenario we're seeing right now, I think this would be a clear Biden loss.
|
Ivan:
[1:59:27]
| I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I think, well, if actually, I'll take that back. Given what we have learned from the polling we're looking at right now, and that it seems to have been pretty close to what, so far, it's coming in pretty close to expectation.
|
Sam:
[1:59:48]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:59:48]
| Okay?
|
Sam:
[1:59:49]
| I mean, that's the one thing to say so far.
|
Ivan:
[1:59:51]
| It's very clear that Harris is performing better than how Biden would have performed.
|
Sam:
[1:59:56]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:59:56]
| Yes. So the reality is, yes, that Harris is definitely doing better than Biden would have done. Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:00:08]
| Bruce is pointing out that Bitcoin is apparently reacting positively to the potential of Trump win. What are those noises?
|
Ivan:
[2:00:16]
| He's ahead right now. My son is playing with his ringtones.
|
Sam:
[2:00:19]
| Okay.
|
Ivan:
[2:00:22]
| There you go. well i mean she is right now ahead in all three.
|
Sam:
[2:00:29]
| And and i and i think the uh which we i predicted last week but i i the democrat position does not look like they're on track to keep the senate either.
|
Ivan:
[2:00:41]
| No no that's definitely a reality.
|
Sam:
[2:00:45]
| House unclear so far I can't tell on the house.
|
Ivan:
[2:00:49]
| Yeah, that's just, we can't, we won't on the house. I mean, honestly, it's not looking like we're going to know about this tonight.
|
Sam:
[2:00:56]
| We may narrow it down a little bit more. But like, I expect there'll probably be calls in Georgia and North Carolina before too long.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:05]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, North Carolina, I mean, DDHQ called it. I mean, you know, but like I said, but even if they call, yeah, but even if they call Georgia, okay, I mean, it comes down to, you know, But when we're talking that it comes down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I mean, and, you know, we need to know what happens in Arizona and Nevada as well.
|
Sam:
[2:01:31]
| You know, in most scenarios, Nevada ends up not making a difference because it's so small there. You know, you can get scenarios where Nevada makes a difference, but most scenarios it doesn't.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:42]
| I mean harris is still leading in iowa but but only 12 percent of the vote.
|
Sam:
[2:01:47]
| Yeah and still all almost all des moines.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:50]
| Yeah yeah okay.
|
Sam:
[2:01:53]
| You know listen for a second, Huh? Yeah. What's, what's amazing by these swing maps to me. And, and of course this is because, you know, I'm in my Washington state liberal bubble or whatever, but looking at like, I just fundamentally, like I have, I understand where the core of Trump's support is, but I have a hard time understanding how he built more support over the last four years. you know like where who who was not for trump four years ago and is now i mean is it really all people who like just i don't know like are thinking like hey donald biden brought inflation and that's all i don't know could.
|
Ivan:
[2:02:44]
| Be i mean that's not an unreasonable uh not a not an unreasonable belief i mean you know a lot of people definitely believe that so yeah it's not.
|
Sam:
[2:02:56]
| And meanwhile donald trump uh signed their stimmy checks yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:01]
| Right exactly and you got that too.
|
Sam:
[2:03:04]
| Bruce is saying bitcoin is close to its all-time high now bruce says it's covered lockdowns and mandates but that happened during trump that did not happen during maiden right.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:15]
| But i for whatever reason they still blame it on on on on the democrats though.
|
Sam:
[2:03:21]
| And the u.s never had actual lockdowns right it was or actual mandates and even state by states there's not a single state in the united states that had anything close to what most of europe had.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:32]
| Yeah it's just yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:03:34]
| Let alone like china so.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:35]
| Right right right so yeah so i i think it's just you know.
|
Sam:
[2:03:40]
| But but i think that is a good point for some reason like even though most of the things that people complain about in terms of covid happened during the administration they.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:53]
| Still blame the democrats.
|
Sam:
[2:03:54]
| Yep yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:58]
| Georgia's pretty much stuck at 77%, which is why nobody's calling it.
|
Sam:
[2:04:03]
| Yeah, it may well be.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:04]
| And that's what happened the last time.
|
Sam:
[2:04:06]
| Yeah, they stopped for the night, and then they continued the next day. So, yes.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:13]
| DDHQ isn't calling it?
|
Sam:
[2:04:14]
| And to answer Jonathan's question, do we need Minnesota? Yes, absolutely.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:18]
| Oh, we need Minnesota. Absolutely.
|
Sam:
[2:04:20]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:20]
| For some reason, we went Georgia.
|
Sam:
[2:04:23]
| Minnesota is one that, yeah, the polling averages were up over 5% for Harris. And it's absolutely needed. Like, if you lose Minnesota, everything's falling in place.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:35]
| Yeah, if you lose Minnesota, you need to win Georgia or something like that to make up for it. Or Georgia or Arizona, for that matter. You know, one of those. You know, you can't just.
|
Sam:
[2:04:48]
| But also, Minnesota is expected to be bluer than the blue wall. So if you're losing Minnesota, you're probably losing the blue wall and you're done. Trump's ahead in Wisconsin again by a very small number.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:01]
| Not on DDHQ yet.
|
Sam:
[2:05:03]
| Let's see. New York Times has 35%. What does DDHQ have?
|
Ivan:
[2:05:07]
| How much they got?
|
Sam:
[2:05:08]
| 35.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:09]
| 35? Yeah, they're a little bit behind. They got 30. Yeah. Let's see where they're reporting here. Still a lot of votes to come in.
|
Sam:
[2:05:18]
| Which state?
|
Ivan:
[2:05:19]
| Oh, Minnesota.
|
Sam:
[2:05:21]
| Oh, yeah, there are 2%.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:23]
| I mean, no, I'm sorry, Wisconsin, I meant.
|
Sam:
[2:05:25]
| Oh, yeah. Bruce says, according to the House map he's looking at, the Republicans have gained one seat so far. Nevada, too early to call.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:36]
| Oh, oh, good news.
|
Sam:
[2:05:38]
| Yes.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:39]
| Utah.
|
Sam:
[2:05:40]
| Oh, Utah has been called.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:42]
| For Trump. Can you believe it?
|
Sam:
[2:05:44]
| Oh, shocker.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:46]
| Trump is now slightly ahead in Pennsylvania.
|
Sam:
[2:05:49]
| Oh, well.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:50]
| By 0.1%. Good news is that around the Philly area, a percentage of votes reported is actually pretty low right now. Like 30%. So below the state.
|
Sam:
[2:06:08]
| Jonathan says in PA, the small places report faster.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:12]
| Yeah, that's what I figured.
|
Sam:
[2:06:15]
| Oh, what did we? Something just changed. What changed? DDHQ calls Montana, You notice I don't have to say who for, but do we have a Montana Senate results yet? No. Bob wants to say, it says, I wonder how Lickman is feeling tonight. He's the one with the keys, the keys. He was really, really confident in the Harris one.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:40]
| Only one county in Arizona is reported.
|
Sam:
[2:06:45]
| The Democrat did win the Senate race in Maryland.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:49]
| Yes. montana greg gina ford is re-elected as governor of montana.
|
Sam:
[2:06:56]
| Oh bernie won re-election 64 to 31 well.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:02]
| Camel is back up in pennsylvania so.
|
Sam:
[2:07:04]
| It's gonna be a fucking roller coaster, my stepmother kathy spent most of the month of october uh canvassing in near harrisburg knocking on doors getting out the vote is there even a display of the bipolar vote anywhere oh i haven't been looking but uh i.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:24]
| I i saw it somewhere.
|
Sam:
[2:07:26]
| Like no one cares because it doesn't 1 million.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:30]
| 727941 to 35 million 609 641.
|
Sam:
[2:07:36]
| Trump has more.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:38]
| More of those well arizona's up to 36 And it's a dead tie.
|
Sam:
[2:07:45]
| It is 40 votes apart. Fuck. 40 votes apart.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:49]
| Fuck.
|
Sam:
[2:07:50]
| With Trump ahead by 40 votes.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:56]
| Fucking hell. Oh, for God's sake. Oh, for fuck. Oh, Jesus fucking Christ.
|
Sam:
[2:08:09]
| Oh, wait, do I have Wyoming? Yeah, I already had Wyoming.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:15]
| Okay, so 37% of the vote in in Iowa. Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:08:19]
| In Iowa? Yep, okay.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:21]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:08:22]
| 50-40.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:24]
| Yes, and the margin's really tiny. And I'm seeing that Cedar Rapids and some of the big blue counties haven't finished reporting yet.
|
Sam:
[2:08:34]
| Well, mainly Cedar Rapids.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:37]
| No, you got, oh, it's this other one. Black Hawk County, Cedar Rapids. Jesus. Well, here's the one thing. The Iowa, obviously, being at where it's looking at, what it's showing is that what's happening in Iowa is only happening in Iowa.
|
Sam:
[2:08:54]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:56]
| Yeah. It's not, yeah. I mean, it wasn't, that was one of the things that I think in the last few days, was it a generalized thing? thing but no what it's looking at is what it's happening in iowa is only happening in i.
|
Sam:
[2:09:07]
| Know by the way if you look at the swing map the blue ohio is now mostly red.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:16]
| Yeah it's like yeah it's it's got it's it's definitely tapered down yeah yeah right now the margin in ohio is now 56 43 for trump yeah ohio had fate had faked us before like this so Bob says.
|
Sam:
[2:09:30]
| Cedar Rapid isn't quite as blue as Des Moines or Iowa City.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:35]
| Well, they got a low percentage of people reporting is the only thing about that.
|
Sam:
[2:09:39]
| Let's see. New York Times just called Colorado, but DDHQ did that a while ago. Well, so New York Times has Trump up to a 77% chance of victory. and their range of estimates for the darker color here is all in the red now. And did... So New York Times' little needle for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin is all still at toss-up, but leaning slightly towards Trump in all three.
|
Ivan:
[2:10:14]
| And their needle right now in Arizona is leaning slightly. Well, okay, I don't, I'm looking at this, I don't know if that, when it's at toss, if there's anything to read from that. the one that's gray, I'm not sure, because I see that in Arizona, you see how it's lean R right now for Arizona, but it looks about the same. I can't tell if there's a fucking difference.
|
Sam:
[2:10:44]
| I think there is.
|
Ivan:
[2:10:45]
| But yeah, I can't tell if there's really a difference.
|
Sam:
[2:10:51]
| Margin in Wisconsin with 44% vote in is 200 votes.
|
Ivan:
[2:10:55]
| No i'm looking at 2000 over here right now.
|
Sam:
[2:10:58]
| What new york new york.
|
Ivan:
[2:11:00]
| New york times 44 percent and yeah i'm looking at 732-690-730896 oh yep yep she's up in michigan she is behind pennsylvania right now and.
|
Sam:
[2:11:15]
| Pennsylvania is up to 51 percent.
|
Ivan:
[2:11:17]
| Yeah but again Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:11:22]
| So Karnacki on MSNBC is going through various counties in Pennsylvania and showing basically Harris is a couple percent behind where Joe Biden was in a bunch of these counties, which would, since Biden just barely won Pennsylvania, if that's a consistent pattern across the board, that means Harris loses PA. And there is no path without PA at the moment.
|
Ivan:
[2:11:48]
| But there is no pants without PA.
|
Sam:
[2:11:52]
| DGHQ puts Iowa to Trump.
|
Ivan:
[2:11:54]
| Yeah. Yeah. They called it. Yeah. Harris is ahead now in Arizona with 50% of the vote report, 51% of the vote reportings.
|
Sam:
[2:12:04]
| Yeah. That would be nice if that held on. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:08]
| I know.
|
Sam:
[2:12:10]
| We're going to be waiting for vote by mail and crap like that over the next few days.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:15]
| Yeah. The problem is, of course, with Pennsylvania, with the margin where it is right now, it's just that it. So, so yeah, because they didn't start counting all those vote by mail. So it's what happened the last time too. That's why they, they, they got into the shouting match.
|
Sam:
[2:12:32]
| But, but also vote by mail this time is not expected to be quite as disproportionate as it was before because Trump has been pushing remote options as well this time around.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:42]
| Wow. Question is, of course, if they did it, now one thing is it talking about it is he talked about it through both, both sides, you know, the mouth.
|
Sam:
[2:12:49]
| Well, yeah, but at least according to the number of ballots ordered in their early vote numbers, the Republicans were leading Democrats in early vote, including mail.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:59]
| No no but but my thing is it just also depends on where you know where the okay the mail-in votes are or the the the amount but also where you know where they were ordered from yeah yeah what i'm saying i mean because when when you've got like montgomery county that's only 29 percent of the votes in right which is right i mean how much is that mail-in i mean which is that's you know it's very solidly blue i i don't know i don't know those are the key questions no What.
|
Sam:
[2:13:29]
| Do you think? you wanted ulcers right, okay so jonathan updates only 11 of philadelphia counted when i was canvassing there they said there were about a hundred thousand registered dems in west philly that did not vote in the last election the canvassing there was very thorough i.
|
Ivan:
[2:13:57]
| Mean i think he's right that's why you know This is like still in a toss up because it's just so many of those votes are there. I mean, that's, that's the, that's the, that's the key. I mean, I don't know. Some other state got called for Harris by, yeah. They got her 112. Let me see over in New York.
|
Sam:
[2:14:18]
| New York.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:20]
| Nah, DC and Colorado.
|
Sam:
[2:14:23]
| Yeah, I had DC, but New York has been called too.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:25]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:14:27]
| Which again, not a surprise. you're not surprised so richard wants to know how is wisconsin looking too.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:35]
| Close to call.
|
Sam:
[2:14:36]
| Too close to call but trump is leading with 48 of the votes in 49.7 to 48.8.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:43]
| I mean we're talking about 13 000 votes basically out of 1.5.
|
Sam:
[2:14:50]
| Million so yeah but again it's very tight need wisconsin, any wisconsin i mean you could trade wisconsin for arizona but it seems unlikely any wisconsin oh there it goes bitcoin hits all-time high as u.s election results come in they they like donald, pete says every four years i ask myself why do i do this to myself.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:19]
| Yeah i don't blame you jesus christ.
|
Sam:
[2:15:22]
| What do you got.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:25]
| New York Times has Michigan lean R right now.
|
Sam:
[2:15:29]
| No path without Michigan. You need all three of those. And you know, if you get a situation where Harris pulls out Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but loses Michigan, everyone's going to say it's all about Gaza.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:45]
| Well, one thing is that Wayne County is only 1% reported.
|
Sam:
[2:15:49]
| New York Times odds are up to 82% Trump. So DDHQ is down a little at 72.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:57]
| Georgia, pretty sure. The Gwinnett reported a large batch tonight. It's not enough to overcome Georgia.
|
Sam:
[2:16:04]
| Yeah, they're at 91%, and it's a three-point margin.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:07]
| Yeah, and DDHQ called, DDHQ called Georgia. Now that Gwinnett came in, DDHQ called Georgia for Trump.
|
Sam:
[2:16:12]
| Richard asks, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, PA, is all we are watching. Pretty much. Bob says no one else is even close to that. Yeah. And really, it's Wisconsin, Michigan, PA. Like... me, me, Paris is still.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:30]
| I mean, say you lost Michigan and you get got Arizona and Nevada. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's I mean, that could be, but can't.
|
Sam:
[2:16:41]
| You know, Wisconsin blue again reported by Jonathan. I don't see it yet on my update.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:47]
| But no, I do see on DDHQ.
|
Sam:
[2:16:50]
| Yeah, but New York Times is ahead of DDHQ, though. There are New York Times says 50 ddhq and we got 48 back red yeah and trump is currently leading in ca as well, john says philly's still at 11 i don't know at the moment i'm it's the michigan lean czar that bugs me that means that new york times thinks that there are more red votes outstanding than blue, Harris did finally pull ahead in Virginia at 74% of the vote just fucking barely though.
|
Ivan:
[2:17:27]
| Yeah but there's still a lot of votes left.
|
Sam:
[2:17:31]
| New York Times has Michigan back at toss up Arizona.
|
Ivan:
[2:17:36]
| Has a 4,000.
|
Sam:
[2:17:38]
| Vote margin that's what I was about to say.
|
Ivan:
[2:17:42]
| Arizona is so retarded.
|
Sam:
[2:17:45]
| Trump has taken the lead by 0.2% in Arizona.
|
Ivan:
[2:17:49]
| Sorry. Fucking God damn it. I used the damn R word. Slap me, Sam.
|
Sam:
[2:17:55]
| Boom, boom, boom, boom.
|
Ivan:
[2:17:56]
| Sorry.
|
Sam:
[2:17:57]
| With 53% of the vote in. And yeah, New York Times has it lean R based on where those votes are. Which is what I was saying in terms of like, don't count on Arizona to make up a loss in the blue wall.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:10]
| I don't know. You know, I'm looking at this. And once again, a lot of the votes, you know, Maricopa is the, is, is, you know, the, uh, elephant in the room there.
|
Sam:
[2:18:19]
| It's only half in.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:20]
| It's, it's a, yeah, it's only half in. And the margin is 4,000 votes. I, it's just, you know, that's, yeah. Me, even Pima, you know, they, they're still, so that's, that's another one where.
|
Sam:
[2:18:36]
| Nebraska.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:37]
| Thanks. Yeah. Thank you for, thank you for, you know.
|
Sam:
[2:18:40]
| We had that a long time ago for the whole state.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:42]
| Yeah, fuck all of you. I mean, seriously. Thanks for nothing.
|
Sam:
[2:18:48]
| AOC was re-elected handling. Philadelphia is now 56% reporting, by the way, John.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:56]
| Are they?
|
Sam:
[2:18:57]
| Philadelphia County, 56% of votes in.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:01]
| Montgomery at 39. Bucks at 35.
|
Sam:
[2:19:06]
| Philadelphia County.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:07]
| Philadelphia County at 56. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:19:13]
| And Trump currently up by 3% in Pennsylvania, sorry, not Philly.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:20]
| I mean, the good news is that 56%, and given that Bucks and those that have reported only 11%, 39% and whatever, and the remainder in Philadelphia County, which is like basically half, that's why it's a toss-up because it's...
|
Sam:
[2:19:38]
| New York Times up to 86% chance from three-hour lines in Nevada to vote still. They're holding polls open to clear the lines. so no don't don't expect reports of votes from nevada for hours again nevada.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:54]
| Dd dd hq has not really moved their estimate in any significant way.
|
Sam:
[2:20:00]
| Their percent odd.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:01]
| Yeah they're still it's yeah they're still around 70 30 which is around where it started yeah there and.
|
Sam:
[2:20:08]
| Reminder i was at 6436 on election graphs when it started. I at least feel justified that I wasn't as far off. I wish I had been far off.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:21]
| No, but you're good. I may not like the results, but the data says what the data is.
|
Sam:
[2:20:28]
| Yeah. Margin in Arizona is down to 1,000 with 53% of votes in. With Trump ahead.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:38]
| Yeah, by 1,000 votes. i don't like.
|
Sam:
[2:20:41]
| This is another one by the way and one of the reasons it feels like 2016 is it seems like in the last week trump had given up yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:51]
| I know which he did yeah he did that and i mean he was shocked when he won.
|
Sam:
[2:20:56]
| Yeah, and this this ties into the you know i i didn't include it in my last blog post on election graphs but I included it over and over and over in previous blog posts, how Biden first and then Harris was consistently underperforming both Biden and Clinton from the last two cycles. And that's what we're seeing. Yeah, Trump currently head in both Wisconsin and PA. If that holds up, all done. Oh, no, all three now. Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA all have Trump leads at the moment. They've got both. New York Times has both Wisconsin and Michigan as lean R right now.
|
Ivan:
[2:21:43]
| Yeah, I know. I saw.
|
Sam:
[2:21:45]
| And so does DDHQ. Jonathan says it'll be a long fucking time before a party runs a woman again.
|
Ivan:
[2:21:54]
| I sure hope not.
|
Sam:
[2:21:55]
| I don't know but it may be one of those things where the first one to win has to be a Republican yes great, oh we got Kansas did I already have Kansas no I didn't have Kansas, not a surprise of course yeah Karnacki keeps pointing out like numbers in various counties in like Michigan are looking like 2016 not like 2020 20 uh main one goes to as expected to uh harris there's.
|
Ivan:
[2:22:30]
| One of the things so michigan's only at 26.
|
Sam:
[2:22:33]
| Bob's dropping out thanks bye bye bob bye.
|
Ivan:
[2:22:37]
| Bye bob good night.
|
Sam:
[2:22:39]
| Good night it.
|
Ivan:
[2:22:40]
| Tightened up a little bit now with the last batch of votes in michigan dow futures jump 500 points russell 2000 futures rise two percent as traders spent trump winning that's the.
|
Sam:
[2:22:56]
| You know the fact that the markets like like are happy about a republican potential win here even though the markets tend to do better under democrats is just weird although i saw someone saying that their expectation was the market would go up no matter what just because of the resolution of the uncertainty but new york times is getting close to 90% on their odds and DDHQ up to 78.5.
|
Ivan:
[2:23:24]
| Yeah. DDHQ number has been going up again.
|
Sam:
[2:23:28]
| Well, and it's all cause it's cause you know, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are red right now.
|
Ivan:
[2:23:35]
| Yeah, I know.
|
Sam:
[2:23:37]
| Well, so is Michigan. They're all red right now. Oh yeah. Bedtime for tea leaves as well. Good night.
|
Ivan:
[2:23:45]
| All right. Good night.
|
Sam:
[2:23:46]
| Good night, Pete. John is dropping too, hoping for better news in the morning. Me too, but it's not looking good, John.
|
Ivan:
[2:23:54]
| Not looking good right now. The DTHQ forecast is basically 254, 284 right now. The New York Times a little bit more. Not what we were expecting, what we were hoping right now. Tell you what, the margin in Pennsylvania has tightened up a little bit. They're all very tight. I mean, Wisconsin's 30,000 votes. Michigan, 50,000 votes right now, with only 28% of the vote in, by the way, in Michigan. PA is, what, 100,000 votes with 67% of the vote in. Montgomery County is the one that, I mean, oh, Jesus Christ. Well, I mean, the New York Times still has Pennsylvania as a toss-up for a reason. I mean, they definitely believe that that's getting tighter.
|
Sam:
[2:24:47]
| But the thing is.
|
Ivan:
[2:24:48]
| Michigan and Wisconsin are- The theme.
|
Sam:
[2:24:53]
| Though, as Kornacki goes over his boards on all of these states is, over and over and over again, Harris is underperforming Biden in 2020. And Biden won by the skin of his teeth.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:06]
| I mean, technically, you could lose one of Michigan and Wisconsin and gain Arizona and Nevada, but that's tough.
|
Sam:
[2:25:17]
| Yeah, but Arizona's not looking good.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:23]
| I mean, 53% of the vote in is 3,000 vote margin right now. Yeah. Not looking impossible.
|
Sam:
[2:25:31]
| But they have it as lean R for a reason as well.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:33]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:25:35]
| DDHQ gives Marino, Ohio for Senate, which looking at the numbers was like... Brown was never ahead. McCormick is also leading Casey in Pennsylvania for Senate as well.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:50]
| Oh, get the fuck out of here. Yeah, one of the dissonances, you remember talking about.
|
Sam:
[2:25:55]
| The- Rodgers beating Slotkin in Michigan. Hovda beating Baldwin in Wisconsin.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:03]
| I'm looking at a DDHQ.
|
Sam:
[2:26:05]
| I'm looking at New York Times for those.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:08]
| Baldwin is ahead. I'm looking at, they have both, they have the opposite.
|
Sam:
[2:26:13]
| New York Times has 60%, in the Senate race for those votes.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:23]
| I mean, Pennsylvania is getting tighter. It's down to 90,000 votes right now, but the needle's got it to lean R now.
|
Sam:
[2:26:31]
| Lean R for all three.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:33]
| Yeah, lean R for all three. Let me go make some more teeth.
|
Sam:
[2:26:38]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:39]
| Who is still on?
|
Sam:
[2:26:41]
| I know. Say hi for whoever's still on. There are three people here. One of them's you.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:46]
| No, one of them's me, so only two. Ah, all right, Bruce. No. Well, yeah, now we're down to two. So that would be... Ah, okay, it's only Bruce.
|
Sam:
[2:27:01]
| Bruce and us.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:04]
| I'm going to go make some tea.
|
Sam:
[2:27:07]
| All right, see you in a few minutes.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:08]
| I'll be right back.
|
Sam:
[2:27:09]
| Once you get back, I'll get something for me. California projected oh big shocker there.
|
Sam:
[2:27:20]
| Idaho, too early to call in Washington. Well, Washington has one data dump today and then tomorrow. Oh, feel free to make your comments and questions, Bruce. I will probably keep going. I wouldn't be surprised if Yvonne drops at midnight Eastern, but I have nothing else to do. I plan to do this all night until there's nothing else useful. So for your questions, let's see. Is there anyone else who could have done better than Harris? Should they have had a brokered convention? I think even if there is somebody that theoretically could have done better than Harris, if like Biden had decided not to run two years ago and they'd had like an open battle, if they had done anyone else other than Harris in some sort of brokered convention, abbreviated primary or whatever, I think they would have ended up doing worse. because it would have been divisive. Harris was about as unifying as you could possibly get within the Democrats.
|
Sam:
[2:28:24]
| You, of course, had the issue with some of the left wing sort of holding back because of Gaza, but you would have had that with any Democratic candidate who would have won. So that was not different. But yeah, I think Harris was their best bet. And yeah, I think if If you were going to go for anybody else, it would have had to have been in a scenario where Biden had announced way, way back that he wasn't going anywhere or sorry that he wasn't running.
|
Ivan:
[2:28:56]
| The thing about this is it's just the results, what they are showing is that it didn't matter. I don't think it really, there wasn't any candidate that Democrats could have put up that would have won. For whatever reason, a large percentage of this country wanted Trump to be president again.
|
Sam:
[2:29:18]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:29:19]
| I mean, they for some reason really truly believe that they were better.
|
Sam:
[2:29:26]
| They.
|
Ivan:
[2:29:26]
| Were better off with trump.
|
Sam:
[2:29:28]
| And as we were pointing out with that swing map like huge portions of the country redder than they were four years ago and specifically more trumpy than they were four years ago even the blue even in the blue states they've moved trumpier which is you know like and again from from the point of view of yvonne and i at least like this would be perfectly understandable if the nominee was Haley or somebody, but it's, it's completely baffling with Trump.
|
Ivan:
[2:29:59]
| I think it's just extremely baffling to me that in the middle of an economy that has actually recovered so much from where it was.
|
Sam:
[2:30:09]
| Washington called, by the way.
|
Ivan:
[2:30:12]
| You know, an economy that improved vastly from where it was in Oregon too.
|
Sam:
[2:30:15]
| I think.
|
Ivan:
[2:30:16]
| And, and people in people's incomes are up there. There's a lot of things that are not Oregon yet are positive that people still, for whatever reason felt that if they were that, that the Democrats didn't do anything for them. And I mean, the stock market is up. Inflation came down. Wages are up. I, you know, I don't, I don't know what the hell else you, you do. I, I, I don't know. And, and I mean, I mean, this guy is a convicted felon and they wanted the convicted felon. Oh, oh, Richard is back. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I don't know if you're hearing us, but Sam and I right now are very pessimistic.
|
Sam:
[2:31:08]
| The 88 seems about right like honestly yeah the odds they're giving we we and and ddhq has it it takes.
|
Ivan:
[2:31:17]
| It it takes a miracle right now.
|
Sam:
[2:31:20]
| I mean for.
|
Ivan:
[2:31:22]
| Harris to pull it out.
|
Sam:
[2:31:23]
| Yeah she has to catch up in wisconsin wisconsin wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania they're all behind in all She's right under.
|
Ivan:
[2:31:32]
| She's, you know, behind in Pennsylvania by over a hundred thousand votes. I mean, she's behind in Michigan by 80,000 and she's behind in Wisconsin now by 50,000 votes. There is no, there is no path to get around that. You could, like I said, you could lose one and maybe there's a path around it, but not all three, not, not two. Definitely not all three.
|
Sam:
[2:32:03]
| We got Maine, Maine for.
|
Ivan:
[2:32:05]
| By the way, they call California.
|
Sam:
[2:32:07]
| Yeah. Yeah. That happened while you were gone. I mentioned it.
|
Ivan:
[2:32:11]
| No. Okay. I thought you said Washington State.
|
Sam:
[2:32:13]
| Oh, I, I, that was after I mentioned the others earlier. and we got Maine all where's Maine all there it is and and Oregon as well okay still theoretically uncalled we could go from Harris by 68 to Trump by 86 but that involves catching up in several uncalled states okay talk for a minute Yvonne I'm gonna be back in just a minute so.
|
Ivan:
[2:32:40]
| I don't know because Richard came back in let me just do a recap of where the hell we are right now in the states that haven't been like officially like, like the, for example, Georgia decision desk called it already for, for Trump. New York times. Hasn't margin. The margin there is about a hundred thousand votes, but you got 93% of the vote in. I mean, highly unlikely you can overcome that right now at this point, North Carolina is about the same. Uh, you got 87% of the votes. Trump is up by about 100,000 votes Don't see a path there either at this point Pennsylvania's got 72% of the votes in and Trump is up by Jesus, now about 180,000 votes.
|
Ivan:
[2:33:27]
| There could be a way to make that up, but it's not looking good with 72%.
|
Ivan:
[2:33:35]
| Michigan, 90,000 vote difference right now. Trump ahead, 30% of the vote in. I mean, what the models are stating from this, that they've got them like all three at leaning Republican, is basically that from where the rest of the votes are coming, it's not expected to be able to make up that that gap right now you got 50 000 votes, wisconsin was 63 percent of the vote in but you know the one thing is that without pennsylvania forget about it i and and right now pennsylvania is 51 to 48 i mean it's not it's i mean unless, Pennsylvania somehow comes back. I mean, there is no path with Pennsylvania. You could theoretically do something losing one of Michigan or Wisconsin, but you can't lose both. Arizona right now, 4,000 vote gap, but still, I mean, you can't, yeah, that's not enough. You have that turns back. so so yeah so you know nevada's not in yet but none of that matters i mean if if if went with these three with with pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin it just doesn't really matter.
|
Ivan:
[2:35:04]
| So, I mean, oh, I.
|
Sam:
[2:35:09]
| Sorry, I'm back, but I can't hear yet. Headphones on.
|
Ivan:
[2:35:14]
| Hello, hello. Hello, hello.
|
Sam:
[2:35:18]
| Joe Biden, one year by eight points. And right now, we'll see in Lehigh County, the city of Ballantown is in the majority.
|
Ivan:
[2:35:26]
| I mean, the trouncing in Florida is just ridiculous. I mean, by the way, Texas is not even close. Texas is about the same. It's 14 points, like right now, for Texas. Not, not, can you hear me? Sam? No, he can't hear me. And he's scrambling over there with cables.
|
Sam:
[2:35:51]
| Something else I would see tonight, this is, this is really, I keep pulling it out because I keep seeing it. I think it's important to know. and michigan and wisconsin or donald trump either there we go i can hear again hello yvonne.
|
Ivan:
[2:36:05]
| Okay so i was mentioning that right now by the way texas the current vote at 81 percent reported uh trump is winning by 14 points so it's not not it's not even narrowly same as florida last time no not at all no.
|
Sam:
[2:36:22]
| Like last yeah yeah it's widening.
|
Ivan:
[2:36:25]
| His margin not at all.
|
Sam:
[2:36:26]
| 2020 significantly like the narrative.
|
Ivan:
[2:36:29]
| Has been for a while that like.
|
Sam:
[2:36:30]
| You know yeah texas is the white whale but it's getting closer each time no apparently not.
|
Ivan:
[2:36:36]
| No not not i mean basically it wound up looking the same as florida yeah and yeah georgia is, definitely very tight, but now North Carolina, the same, very tight, but now it's just.
|
Sam:
[2:36:54]
| You know, the 63. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. At the moment, you know, we were talking about the Colt, the polls are pretty close to on. If anything, at this point, they underestimated Trump again.
|
Ivan:
[2:37:08]
| Yeah. Well, in certain places.
|
Sam:
[2:37:10]
| Well, well, no, I mean, even in like, no.
|
Ivan:
[2:37:13]
| In Wisconsin and Michigan. Yeah. They, they, they had Wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania.
|
Sam:
[2:37:18]
| You know my average is that.
|
Ivan:
[2:37:20]
| Well pennsylvania was the average was slight uh trump slightly ahead but by 0.1.
|
Sam:
[2:37:24]
| It looks like he's gonna win by three yeah i mean i mean that could still narrow that could work exactly.
|
Ivan:
[2:37:30]
| Yeah but but you know it's about where it was but the reality is in these three the margins are still within the margin you know when you look at.
|
Sam:
[2:37:39]
| Yeah they're all.
|
Ivan:
[2:37:39]
| They call it they were they were like relatively in the range of.
|
Sam:
[2:37:43]
| I mean we said the range of the air but texas and florida we said repeatedly that all of these seven states could easily go either way they're easily going to the trump side, but but yeah like the the ones that are off by a lot more yeah it will it'll take a while to get final results i mean at some point i'll go through and compare the final poll averages in every state to the actual vote results and fold them into, you know, my preparations for 2028. Honestly, I, that may take me a while. I don't know that I'll be doing that.
|
Ivan:
[2:38:22]
| By the way, Virginia is only Harris is ahead, but it's only by two points in Virginia.
|
Sam:
[2:38:26]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:38:27]
| Maryland in Virginia. Now Maryland is, she's up by 22 points.
|
Sam:
[2:38:31]
| Which is about what was expected.
|
Ivan:
[2:38:33]
| New York. It's like, it's a blowout too. It's about 14 points. So is Massachusetts. you know, those are, In, in the ballpark, Colorado is also a blowout 55, 43.
|
Sam:
[2:38:47]
| I'll point out, I'll point out too, assuming Trump wins this, which is what looks likely at this point, it's a legit win. You know, there's no like, oh my God, he cheated. No, it's a legit win. It's just that a, you know, a huge portion of the population of this country wants this. now he's still well actually like what are they updated uh and and harris will still probably i think he's going to.
|
Ivan:
[2:39:19]
| Still lose the way yeah he's still she's still looking like she's going to win the popular vote.
|
Sam:
[2:39:23]
| Yeah when when when now it may take a while for us to get to that count because california is slow but.
|
Ivan:
[2:39:28]
| Yeah right but but it's looking like it because the margin right now is only five million votes yeah without california which is only three percent of the votes and so yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:39:38]
| And california will take weeks to finish their count so right.
|
Ivan:
[2:39:42]
| But it's it's you know not just that if this is the case the republicans are going to keep.
|
Sam:
[2:39:50]
| That yeah they're going to have a trifecta you'll have and i can only imagine the damage that's going to do we're gonna we're yeah, we'll undoubtedly have this conversation in more detail on the on the main show but like A Republican trifecta with Donald Trump, a Republican Senate, and not just any Republican Senate and House, but a MAGA Republican Senate and House is going to be absolutely disastrous.
|
Ivan:
[2:40:18]
| For the world.
|
Sam:
[2:40:20]
| Yep. I saw one post on Mastodon about an hour ago saying, well, Europe, get ready to say hello to Putin. Yeah. Yeah, Richard says this is catastrophic for Ukraine. Yep.
|
Ivan:
[2:40:38]
| Oh, hell yeah. Oh, yeah. And by the way, the idiots in Michigan that decided that they voted against heirs because of Gaza.
|
Sam:
[2:40:50]
| It's disastrous for Gaza.
|
Ivan:
[2:40:52]
| Yeah, just wait.
|
Sam:
[2:40:54]
| I mean, they want to build resorts there, right? Tear it all down and build resorts.
|
Ivan:
[2:41:01]
| Yeah. I mean, right now, Michigan is like right now, the margins up to like about almost 100,000 votes.
|
Sam:
[2:41:08]
| Yeah. And 6%.
|
Ivan:
[2:41:11]
| It's not even.
|
Sam:
[2:41:13]
| Bruce mentions on Rogan, Trump said that he'd start negotiation with Putin before the inauguration, which is, of course, illegal. But who cares?
|
Ivan:
[2:41:20]
| Yeah. Nobody's going to prosecute him on anything.
|
Sam:
[2:41:23]
| We may, you know, that that's that his sentencing in New York may even be delayed till after his presidency. now i'm not sure he makes it through his four years but that's a whole other story.
|
Ivan:
[2:41:36]
| That's a whole other story and.
|
Sam:
[2:41:39]
| Then we get vance.
|
Ivan:
[2:41:39]
| Yeah great well i oh this is going to be a problem what.
|
Sam:
[2:41:46]
| Are your batteries running.
|
Ivan:
[2:41:47]
| Um my yeah my headphone batteries while recording you cannot change speaker settings of course because you have are a stupid Good application. Oh, God, Joe. He's got to be dying.
|
Sam:
[2:42:03]
| Yeah. And despite our conversation that he probably would have done worse, you know he's there thinking, I could have won this.
|
Ivan:
[2:42:09]
| Okay, you know what? You want to argue that one now? Because I hate to break it to you, but these numbers look worse than what was in the polls before the switch to Harris.
|
Sam:
[2:42:24]
| Mm-hmm.
|
Ivan:
[2:42:25]
| Right now, these numbers look worse.
|
Sam:
[2:42:28]
| They were pretty bad. Like, he was behind by more than 5%.
|
Ivan:
[2:42:32]
| These are worse.
|
Sam:
[2:42:34]
| Well, and he's behind by 6%. Yeah, so it's about the same.
|
Ivan:
[2:42:38]
| These look worse.
|
Sam:
[2:42:39]
| I have to bring up the comparisons one by one, but yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:42:43]
| Like I said, it was never a good idea to change candidates in the middle of the fucking thing. And to fucking, like, get rid of the incumbency. I'm sorry. But you know what? I love Harris. You know, I voted for her in the last election, but I said vehemently since the beginning that this was suicidal and it's showing exactly that right now. So fucking stupid.
|
Sam:
[2:43:08]
| So, of course, the the Harris campaign is saying, you know, they the absentee ballots that are coming going to come in over the next few days are going to turn things around. Blah, blah, blah. We'll see. We'll see.
|
Ivan:
[2:43:20]
| What is biden's to-do list probably going to try to do some executive actions on certain things i'm sure to try to start make things difficult in a certain way but i don't know who's going to stop trump right now basically when he's got the courts the house and the senate all on on his side to to do whatever the fuck he wants yeah there's no so um and.
|
Sam:
[2:43:38]
| And and as we've said before none of the people who acted as guardrails in the trump first term will be there.
|
Ivan:
[2:43:46]
| Are there there.
|
Sam:
[2:43:47]
| Will the entire staffing of the administration will be in 100% based on loyalty and loyalty only. And the willingness to say, yes, sir, I'll do whatever you want regardless. And, and the court will back him up on anything too. Like they made it clear through their immunity thing that there's no, they don't believe there's no guard, no guard. They believe the president, she should have close to absolute power. They don't believe that Congress should have the ability to write laws that restrict the president in how they manage their official duties.
|
Sam:
[2:44:24]
| And not that anyone, you know, not that like Congress would fight them over if you've got a Republican trifecta as well. So, yeah, it's just going to be, you know, they're going to do whatever they want for four years, at least, maybe longer. Because part of what they will do is, and this is typical of the illiberal democracies like Orban and Hungary, which they've specifically said they want to model off of, is they dismantle institutions that would enable a robust opposition and make it harder and harder for anybody to go against the power. That's how these work. It's not an outright like quote unquote dictatorship. It's a, you break down all the institutions of the state so there are no protections against the people in power doing whatever the hell they want. no guardrails that's what the deep state is for and yeah it's going to be a rough four years you will see you'll probably also see a lot of state versus federal battles in blue states like this one like washington state where the blue states try to maintain some level of what they want and the federal government fights against it and well.
|
Ivan:
[2:45:50]
| Those fights are going to be.
|
Sam:
[2:45:51]
| Horrific so.
|
Ivan:
[2:45:52]
| Yeah could biden force netanyahu wrap things up probably he could.
|
Sam:
[2:45:58]
| No no he would have some no there are no.
|
Ivan:
[2:46:02]
| Actually there there are certain things where well okay hear me out here depends on you you kept.
|
Sam:
[2:46:10]
| Talking about unchecked presidential power well biden has it right now yeah but.
|
Ivan:
[2:46:15]
| Okay exactly so you know what you could fuck hell hell i'll fucking like put an aircraft carrier outside tel aviv and fucking tell him i'm gonna start fucking bombing the shit out of your military unless you stop right.
|
Sam:
[2:46:28]
| Now but it's not gonna happen you know it's not gonna happen.
|
Ivan:
[2:46:31]
| Well and i know biden is not gonna do it i'm saying that that could be i don't know i would.
|
Sam:
[2:46:36]
| The the needle is now at 90 so the harris campaign is uh saying they're not conceding tonight there's too much outstanding. They're going to continue to wait to see how the votes come in. Harris's theory of the case in Pennsylvania is that they may be underperforming Biden elsewhere in the state, but they're overperforming in Philadelphia, and they're hoping that'll be enough to make up for it. I don't know. Seems like grasping at straws at this point.
|
Ivan:
[2:47:03]
| There's just not enough votes left. The margins right now are 200,000 votes. There's not enough votes left.
|
Sam:
[2:47:11]
| So here's the quote from the Harris team. Let's see. I'll read you the whole memo. In Pennsylvania, we overperformed turnout expectations in Philadelphia and overperformed in our early vote expectations in Bucks County. We don't have election day results from Philadelphia, but we do know that we overperformed turnout expectations there and have seen especially high turnout in places with large non-white and student populations. We expect to see higher turnout in Philadelphia than in 2020. Outside of Philadelphia, we have limited data on turnout and support right now, but what we do have is tracking with our expectations. We are awaiting more results like everyone else and hope to get a closer read in the coming hours. In Michigan, we are awaiting a significant amount of votes to come in. The city of Detroit won't be reported out until roughly midnight, but we have seen strong turnout throughout early vote and election day there. Other results in Michigan are harder to parse since results are coming in more piecemeal than elsewhere.
|
Ivan:
[2:48:07]
| They're right about that. I'm looking at indefinitely. There's like Wayne County only reported 1% of the votes.
|
Sam:
[2:48:14]
| In Wisconsin, we know there is a significant amount of vote remaining in Dade and Milwaukee counties, and we are seeing signs of strong performance in the Wow counties where we have partial data. We don't expect complete results from Wisconsin until tomorrow morning between 3 and 5 a.m. And then a summary of all this. While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sunbelt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall states, and we feel good about what we're seeing.
|
Ivan:
[2:48:44]
| Not neither of them look good. There's just, I just don't. There's a 200,000 vote gap in Pennsylvania. You might make it close. You're not going to get over that. In Michigan right now, it's 120,000 vote gap. I know it's only 36%, but that's also a massive gap. And in Wisconsin, it's a 70,000 vote gap with 70% of the vote in. I mean, it has the possibility that the New York Times is giving it right now.
|
Sam:
[2:49:23]
| Yeah, that's about 10%. I think that's reasonable, given what we're seeing. Impossible, no. Likely, no.
|
Ivan:
[2:49:31]
| Not likely.
|
Sam:
[2:49:35]
| I will report at least my unopposed wife won re-election.
|
Ivan:
[2:49:40]
| Wow. That's good news. It is. I'm not being facetious.
|
Sam:
[2:49:45]
| I haven't actually checked the results since she was unopposed, but because there was no even registered write-in vote, even if there were write-in votes, they wouldn't be counted. So I just asked her, she's, she's at a, an election night party for her district. So I just asked her what the mood is there, given what everyone's seeing and how at least the local people were doing.
|
Ivan:
[2:50:11]
| I mean, literally right now, every swing state is looking like it's going to Trump.
|
Sam:
[2:50:18]
| Yep. I think we said, yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:50:22]
| I mean, every.
|
Sam:
[2:50:22]
| Single— And by the way, going back to election graphs, if you looked at not the straight-up values, but my probabilistic thing, the median result was Trump by 86, which is what he would get if he won every swing state.
|
Ivan:
[2:50:40]
| I mean literally every swing state.
|
Sam:
[2:50:42]
| Yes yeah the the only ones that i was reading is even competitive in my final blog post were wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania and she's behind all of those.
|
Ivan:
[2:50:54]
| She's behind on all three.
|
Sam:
[2:50:56]
| I shouldn't say even competitive all seven were competitive they were all within the range of margin of error the.
|
Ivan:
[2:51:02]
| Tightest one but the tight those were the.
|
Sam:
[2:51:04]
| Yeah like if if you looked at like where not just where the current number is but where they'd been bouncing around those were the only three that spent a significant amount of time on the blue side of the line our senator can't well won re-election that wasn't really a surprise, and barb and and.
|
Ivan:
[2:51:24]
| And and here's the crazy thing gallego is running far ahead of cary lake which by the way this is what the data was.
|
Sam:
[2:51:31]
| Showing yeah it was like.
|
Ivan:
[2:51:33]
| I remember talking about how the hell you know but slotkin is losing against rogers in michigan, montana she is crushing tester right now very few of the votes in but still, Cormac is beating Casey.
|
Sam:
[2:51:51]
| Yep. I mentioned that a while back and it hasn't changed.
|
Ivan:
[2:51:54]
| No. And Texas cruises cruising by 10 points. It's not that close.
|
Sam:
[2:52:02]
| Yeah. No, it looked close for a little bit, but no.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:06]
| And Baldwin is losing too.
|
Sam:
[2:52:07]
| I mentioned that a while ago too, and it's sticking. Yeah. Across the ball.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:12]
| It's just updating right now where it is.
|
Sam:
[2:52:13]
| Yeah. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:14]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:52:14]
| No. Yeah. Like, so they're going to have a decent, i mean we all expected the most likely outcome was the republicans would take the senate because the democrats had to like be perfect across the board but they yeah they're picking up a decent number it's not just they're gonna take the senate they're gonna no they're gonna take it with a decent margins.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:34]
| Yeah yeah and looking.
|
Sam:
[2:52:37]
| At the house district first battleground house flip of the night per ap the democrat one in new york's new york's 22nd.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:45]
| That's good i'm looking at the house and for whatever reason the house is not looking as bad.
|
Sam:
[2:52:52]
| You think that yeah that would be a mute no.
|
Ivan:
[2:52:55]
| That would be yeah i'm looking at it's not looking as as as bad no whatever the fuck reason this fucking.
|
Sam:
[2:53:04]
| Psychopathic goddamn election.
|
Ivan:
[2:53:09]
| Yeah it isn't actually looking as bad no oh it's fucking ridiculous how.
|
Sam:
[2:53:21]
| AP finally called North Carolina long time after GDHQ did, Let's see, are there any states I'm missing in your little log? Let's see. No Hawaii yet, of course. Nebraska, too, isn't called by anybody. New Mexico, not called yet. Minnesota, not called yet.
|
Ivan:
[2:53:46]
| Not called, but yeah, she's way ahead. Yeah, she's taking Minnesota. Okay, the margin in Michigan is narrowing for whatever reason.
|
Sam:
[2:53:56]
| And Michigan is only at 39. but and.
|
Ivan:
[2:54:00]
| Wisconsin is also narrowing too.
|
Sam:
[2:54:01]
| Actually it's.
|
Ivan:
[2:54:03]
| Narrowed a little in.
|
Sam:
[2:54:04]
| Pennsylvania but not i was about to say that pennsylvania has narrowed a little bit too but probably not enough but it's narrow enough.
|
Ivan:
[2:54:12]
| But it's narrowed but yeah i mean michigan has definitely narrowed a lot, now wisconsin is narrowed by about 20 30 000 votes too so well i mean i'm guessing there is a reason why because dvhq usually i mean we'll call them like.
|
Sam:
[2:54:30]
| They're they're aggressive about i'm assuming.
|
Ivan:
[2:54:32]
| They're yeah i mean there's gotta be a reason they haven't called them yet.
|
Sam:
[2:54:36]
| Well i i mean i i i presume it is just the straightforward there's a lot of mail-in ballots that are going to be called over the night counted over the next few days yeah and they're and one of the things that is an unknown at this point is the breakdown of like of those ballots yeah we who.
|
Ivan:
[2:54:59]
| The fuck knows.
|
Sam:
[2:55:00]
| Because we don't know because the behavior is not the same as 2020 and is not the same as 2022 no so that's got to be the reason that's and that's what the harris campaign said uh they just new mexico for harris duh, For some reason, I was missing Louisiana and moving over. That was a long time ago. Okay, that's taken care of. Virginia for Harris, we already had that a long time ago. Okay, so this means the only solid places where their margins were over 10% and the averages that haven't been called yet are Hawaii, just because their polls are still open for who knows how many more hours, and nebraska cd1 which is undoubtedly just because they're lazy and haven't called it yet.
|
Ivan:
[2:55:55]
| I'm guessing simply like trump.
|
Sam:
[2:55:56]
| Hasn't declared.
|
Ivan:
[2:55:57]
| Victory right now because he sees that that.
|
Sam:
[2:55:59]
| Cd nebraska cd1 is actually really close right now oh fuck but not that it would make a difference to anything but it's actually this is one of the ones where i remember on their curmudgeon scored slack i said oh look at this 49 points might be a surprise harris win but trump is still ahead there just barely yeah and they have it rated as very likely r so i presume they have some knowledge of what parts i.
|
Ivan:
[2:56:31]
| Mean and even with more votes in an arizona it's still only a couple of thousand votes so.
|
Sam:
[2:56:37]
| We're going to have another generation of left-leaning people who in four years are going to be like don't make the mistake i made in 2024, the people who wanted purity and couldn't possibly vote for harris well.
|
Ivan:
[2:56:55]
| But i look i i Look, on another point, and, you know, see when the vote totals are finally tallied up, but seeing how so many places turned redder, I mean…, Obviously, there's a lot more of the MAGA people. It's not just people that sat on the sidelines not looking like that.
|
Sam:
[2:57:23]
| It's a big game. It's not just.
|
Ivan:
[2:57:27]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:57:27]
| And like I said, even in the blue states, they've moved red.
|
Ivan:
[2:57:31]
| Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:57:34]
| I mean, I'm looking at the arrows start to show up for here in Washington and in California.
|
Ivan:
[2:57:40]
| Yeah, I can see. I can see. they're.
|
Sam:
[2:57:41]
| All trending red.
|
Ivan:
[2:57:43]
| Yeah you know i was talking the other day talking to somebody saying what's wrong with the with the u.s look what's wrong with the u.s look we voted the germans had the biggest turnout of far-right candidates that had in a long time it's a worldwide the italians voted for maloney the french you know had even though you know they held on they had they had a very big turnout on that side as well the reality is that the uk, had to spend a significant period of damage you know we we spent four years with trump but the ruse spent like over a decade with the conservatives in in charge and it wasn't really until after the entire wholesale destruction from from brexit that it became painfully obvious to everybody that they had gotten completely screwed over and they finally tossed them out in mass, but it took them to reach rock bottom from that.
|
Sam:
[2:58:46]
| I'll look at a look into our future. I just saw a post on Mastodon from Kim Schreitenberg. So, uh, going, going to what I was speaking about, about gains, even in blue areas, Trump made double digit gains in New York city, up 5% in Manhattan, up 10% in Queens, up 6% in Brooklyn. Uh, Sorry, what were you going to say? You looked like you saw something interesting.
|
Ivan:
[2:59:11]
| No, I saw something, but the decision desk has some bad data on their thing where it showed, like, Michigan that Harris is ahead, but they double counted something.
|
Sam:
[2:59:22]
| Oh, yeah, that's clearly bullshit. I'm looking at it, too.
|
Ivan:
[2:59:25]
| No, I'm like, what?
|
Sam:
[2:59:27]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:59:28]
| And I'm like, no.
|
Sam:
[2:59:29]
| It jumped to 60-30, Harris. No, no, no.
|
Ivan:
[2:59:32]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. That's not true.
|
Sam:
[2:59:35]
| You know, the other thing people are pointing out is once again, Trump, the gains with Latinos were real. Now you always point out differs by where they're from, but yeah, but they, you know, despite like the whole, oh, he burned a whole lot of bridges in that rally at MSG, apparently not as much as people liked him.
|
Ivan:
[3:00:00]
| Okay. DDHQ fixed it.
|
Sam:
[3:00:03]
| Oh and their their minnesota numbers went to.
|
Ivan:
[3:00:06]
| Zero wait but but wait yeah but but wait but they're showing that the margin in michigan is down to only 30 000 votes.
|
Sam:
[3:00:13]
| But they've only got 42 percent in new york times has 71 percent in.
|
Ivan:
[3:00:17]
| No for michigan sorry.
|
Sam:
[3:00:19]
| Michigan yeah 43 percent at new york times too then.
|
Ivan:
[3:00:23]
| Yeah they're they're at the same percent but they're showing only a margin of 30,000 votes in Michigan. Actually, they got 75% for Wisconsin. They're showing 100,000 vote margin in Wisconsin. But Michigan, I mean, am I reading this right? Yeah. They're showing only the margin narrowed to 20,000 votes in Michigan.
|
Sam:
[3:00:47]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[3:00:48]
| But Pennsylvania is not getting any tighter.
|
Sam:
[3:00:51]
| Well, yeah. I mean, and it sounds like the Harris campaign isn't even expecting it to tonight they're like counting on mail ballots that aren't even going to get counted tonight, now even then like it seems like a really freaking tall order which is why we're like like new york times is down to nine percent now and i still think that sounds about right what's ddhq's number now uh.
|
Ivan:
[3:01:17]
| It's close to that.
|
Sam:
[3:01:21]
| 12%. Oh, and we got main two and main one called. Main both in this expected direction. Main two Oh, wait, I already had main one. Main two is called now.
|
Ivan:
[3:01:37]
| It's not like people voted for Jill Stein or something. I mean, Jill Stein, I'm looking at Wisconsin, 9,000 votes. Bobby Kennedy got 12. Chase Oliver got seven.
|
Sam:
[3:01:50]
| Much smaller than the margin between the candidates right now.
|
Ivan:
[3:01:54]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Michigan maybe. Like, Jill Stein's got 18,000. Bobby Kennedy's got 11,000. Chase Oliver's got 20,000. That may be. But not in Pennsylvania. It's like 200,000. Chase Oliver's got 27,000. Jill Stein got 27,000. I mean, not, not enough to really. Okay. There's an interesting one. Okay. So we couldn't get the abortion ban done. Apparently in Missouri that they voted to end the state's abortion ban.
|
Sam:
[3:02:25]
| Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's just interesting. The, the, the swings in the last couple of weeks in confidence, like the reporting was two weeks ago, the Trump campaign was super, super confident. And the Harris campaign was shaky. One week ago, the Trump campaign was feeling despondent, and the Harris campaign was on top of the world. And now, obviously, it's the reverse again. Jeez.
|
Ivan:
[3:02:55]
| Anything. Well, Arizona's abortion measure also passed. So that's two.
|
Sam:
[3:03:02]
| It's just your state that failed.
|
Ivan:
[3:03:04]
| Yeah. They did vote 57% for it, but the threshold was much higher.
|
Sam:
[3:03:10]
| 60%.
|
Ivan:
[3:03:10]
| Yeah. Yeah. But they did vote 57% for it. I mean, it's weird. I mean, you got 57% for Trump, but 57% for the fucking abortion measure, but still not enough. A Republican won the governor in New Hampshire.
|
Sam:
[3:03:26]
| That's normal for New Hampshire.
|
Ivan:
[3:03:28]
| Yeah, I was remembering that.
|
Sam:
[3:03:31]
| I mean, he's replacing Sununu or something, isn't he? Or was Sununu with that gap?
|
Ivan:
[3:03:35]
| Yeah, I think it was Sununu. Yeah, I think it was Sununu. coloradons voted uh also passed abortion rights this is not good my headphones are about to die i don't know what the hell well.
|
Sam:
[3:03:48]
| It's about midnight are you gonna tap out.
|
Ivan:
[3:03:50]
| I i i can't sleep right now so i'll stay and stick around for a bit but i i gotta have to switch i don't know what the hell i'm gonna do just.
|
Sam:
[3:04:00]
| Put it on speaker see if it's a bad echo.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:03]
| Okay well hang on okay Okay, well, let me try.
|
Sam:
[3:04:06]
| You don't have any wired headphones around? Bub's recording has stopped due to media disconnect.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:13]
| Yeah, I know.
|
Sam:
[3:04:15]
| Disconnect and reconnect.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:16]
| Yeah. Okay.
|
Sam:
[3:04:19]
| Okay.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:20]
| Well, the live feed seems to have stopped. No, it's gone.
|
Sam:
[3:04:25]
| Hopefully, did it say your recording uploaded?
|
Ivan:
[3:04:28]
| Yes, it did.
|
Sam:
[3:04:29]
| Okay.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:33]
| The Harris margin right now in Virginia has gone to four. So, yeah, I mean, the projections were back up. Yeah, back up to what the.
|
Sam:
[3:04:44]
| I mean, I expected just over five, but four is close.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:48]
| It's still 88%. And so, yeah, I mean, it's trending towards what, you know.
|
Sam:
[3:04:52]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:53]
| What was expected.
|
Sam:
[3:04:55]
| Well, Harris wins Hawaii.
|
Ivan:
[3:04:58]
| Wow. Another shocker.
|
Sam:
[3:05:01]
| I'm surprised their polls are already closed.
|
Ivan:
[3:05:05]
| You know, what time is it? Why right now? It's like five hours. Well, it's seven, right?
|
Sam:
[3:05:11]
| Yeah. Okay. That means the only area with a greater than 10% margin in the polls that is yet uncalled is Nebraska one.
|
Ivan:
[3:05:23]
| I mean, Arizona is really like stupidly tight, but it doesn't matter. i mean without fucking and.
|
Sam:
[3:05:33]
| People keep calling out the only swing state that has been called so far is actually north carolina but the trends everywhere else are like okay yeah it hasn't been.
|
Ivan:
[3:05:42]
| Called yet well decision desk called georgia and i trust their judgment on that yeah yeah i'm not you know i.
|
Sam:
[3:05:49]
| Agree i agree.
|
Ivan:
[3:05:50]
| I i i trust their judgment it's so a the.
|
Sam:
[3:05:54]
| Ap and the major networks haven't yet called georgia but.
|
Ivan:
[3:05:57]
| But it's it's it's it's it's done yeah it's done it's done, 95 of the vote is in and the margin is 200 plus thousand votes now and i mean it's not not not happening pennsylvania might as well be done soon i mean i well but but again that goes back the fucking mail-in ballots i don't know how many of those there are and i and i'm guessing that DDHQ also has the same doubt, which is why they're not calling it either. Right. Because otherwise they would have called it like Georgia.
|
Sam:
[3:06:30]
| Yep.
|
Ivan:
[3:06:31]
| So they've got, that's gotta be their thinking. There's no other reason they wouldn't have called it. I mean, they don't hold back. And Michigan is back to like 60,000 votes. And Wisconsin is like 80,000 votes. But is there anything special about mail-in ballots, complete unofficial results until the morning after the election? In some places, absentee ballots are counted as central facility reported in large batches. So that's also another thing with Wisconsin, where, shit, he had a lot of late ballots too. So I guess I have to, you know, I would be looking at it right now, and I would have been, like I said, with other states, fuck it, whatever. But I know that DDHQ, if they thought it was so in the bag, they would have pulled the trigger on it, and they haven't. So obviously they, and they do know something that we don't.
|
Sam:
[3:07:26]
| Yes. Yes.
|
Ivan:
[3:07:28]
| So, oh, I just realized it's funny. I got it. Where am I? Why am I? Do you have the sound on or what? What is that? You have the TV sound over there.
|
Sam:
[3:07:43]
| Yeah, that's TV sound over here.
|
Ivan:
[3:07:44]
| I'm like wondering where the fuck is that sound coming from?
|
Sam:
[3:07:47]
| I don't have it that loud. I have it so I can.
|
Ivan:
[3:07:49]
| No, no, no. But that's the thing. So I was like wondering, do I have like something like very faint going on around here?
|
Sam:
[3:07:56]
| Not that it's very much, but just to say, both New York Times and DDDHQ have moved slightly back on their needles from where they were a few minutes ago.
|
Ivan:
[3:08:08]
| Yeah, I'm seeing that.
|
Sam:
[3:08:10]
| Slightly. Well, like, instead of a 10% chance.
|
Ivan:
[3:08:15]
| A 12% chance. Again, there's something they're seeing that we're not. Okay? I mean, there is something they are seeing that we're not. I mean and also with Arizona look most okay so, Arizona 7,000 vote margin most voters cast ballots by mail full tabulation takes 10 to 13 days so, that's you know up in the air.
|
Sam:
[3:08:47]
| I don't even have that set up a plug.
|
Ivan:
[3:08:49]
| Nevada they haven't released anything so we don't know about that but And the thing is that if you look at, and I, and I, you see, let's see Georgia, for example, right? If you look at the needle, how Georgia is showing at New York times, look at Georgia, it's flat pinned to R. Okay. All right. Even though they haven't called it, it's flat pinned to R. All right. Okay. But look at the PA, Michigan and Wisconsin ones. They're just. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:09:21]
| The margin is close to the same.
|
Ivan:
[3:09:23]
| Yeah. Yeah, they're very tiny.
|
Sam:
[3:09:27]
| Well, presumably it's all about knowing which districts have yet to report.
|
Ivan:
[3:09:32]
| Yeah, no, and they know that and they know how many ballots are coming in and what the potential margin of those are. And so, which is why they can't call it.
|
Ivan:
[3:09:42]
| Because it's enough to move the needle, so to speak. Fuck. You know, at least it's not Florida that did, as everybody like on pins and needles. Although I wish it was. I mean, we really had a lot of MAGA people move into the state. I mean, it's just, they really came from other places in the last five years. I mean, it's just crazy. Well, the incumbent party candidate won the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election. Okay. The 39% of the vote. The second place came this candidate that he is for independence, but he did a coalition with another party that isn't for independence to try to beat them. But they came in second at 32%. The party that advocates the current status, they came in third at 21%. So, yeah, they got that. Now, I'm going to see something interesting. Apparently, they also pulled the people on a symbolic presidential vote to see what they voted for. I'm very curious to see what the vote was. Okay. Puerto Rico, the symbolic vote, 73% for Harris, 26% for Trump.
|
Sam:
[3:11:08]
| By the way, alert just hit. The Republicans are officially called in enough states to take the Senate.
|
Ivan:
[3:11:15]
| Oh, well, I already said that.
|
Sam:
[3:11:17]
| We already said this like an hour ago, but it's like the alert just came across the wire.
|
Ivan:
[3:11:23]
| Fucking slow people.
|
Sam:
[3:11:25]
| Yeah. So, you know, this goes back to like when the Democrats had the trifecta a couple years back, they needed to be aggressive. They needed to like kill the filibuster, make states, expand the court, all that kind of stuff. Okay, Bruce has another question. Could COVID migrations have affected the political map? North Carolina, Georgia, more red because of a migration.
|
Ivan:
[3:11:51]
| I don't think so much Georgia and North Carolina. I mean, Georgia and North Carolina got tighter, I would say, but Florida for sure. There is just, you know, we've had so many incoming migrations that there is no other way that the state flipped that hard, you know, in that direction without those incoming migrations. Because we really, really had, during COVID, and with a lot of people, and I will add also a lot of people that decided to work remotely, that happened to be Republican-leaning, for the most part. You know, no state income taxes, no whatever, whatnot. You had all those things. And that, you know, basically a lot of people, hedge funds, other things, whatever, they moved here. Okay? And so, yeah, I mean, I do think that that definitely is something that had done that. But even though Georgia and North Carolina are a little bit tighter, not by that much.
|
Ivan:
[3:13:01]
| It's not the way that it's in Florida. I mean, Florida, the last time, the margin was five, six points. This is 13 points right now. This is, you know, it was six points the last time around. We went from two points with Hillary, six points in 2020 to 13. Now that's, that's, that's just, that's a vicious move. That's, you know, Georgia and North Carolina, you know, they, they moved maybe a point or two, but that's it. So, so no, they, they, I mean, they, you know, North Carolina Democrats have never won Georgia. Unfortunately, they won in 2020 once, but they hadn't won it before. Obama had won Florida in 2012, but it's gone from an Obama won in 08, Obama won in 2012, but Hillary lost by a narrow margin, and then that just accelerated into 2020 and 2024.
|
Sam:
[3:14:07]
| So Bruce wants, Bruce also said North Carolina, Georgia close, but more red than 20. And Bruce wants to know, is the left coast more blue now than, than 20? Let's look at the map. No, all three West coast states got redder than 2020. I'll put the link back in the, in the chat for the, the thing, but there's practically no place in the country so far. No full state in the country.
|
Ivan:
[3:14:36]
| Yeah, I'm looking at the election shift map, and it's across the board.
|
Sam:
[3:14:39]
| It's across the board, redder everywhere. I mean, they're scattered blue arrows, but almost every place has moved redder than it was in 2020. I mean, and this is the bottom line summary of the race is Harris underperformed Biden in 2020, and Biden barely won. And this is like, I keep going back to that tipping point chart comparison I had on election graphs over and over showing 2024 versus 2020 versus 2016. There was consistently that Donald Trump was doing better this time around than either of his two previous runs. And the only way to square that situation with the reality is, well, the only way to square that was a possible Harris win was the polling error at the end was different. Like the polling underestimated him and maybe this time it would underestimate her without a polling error. Nope. You know, it's that picture of the race where Harris was running behind both the paces of Clinton and of Biden was accurate, was accurate. Now, in terms of comparing to Biden, Biden was also before he dropped out way behind that his pace for four years ago.
|
Ivan:
[3:16:06]
| Right yeah and.
|
Sam:
[3:16:08]
| People have said like look there are lots of headwinds like despite the guy with the keys there were a lot of headwinds in terms of you know the economic situation and some other stuff even though the economy was theoretically doing well like repeatedly people were people were saying over and over in polls they didn't feel like it.
|
Ivan:
[3:16:28]
| But look look look again facts don't matter look facts don't matter it's all about feeling it's it's it's it's all listen it's all about what what the messaging was that people people believed the message okay you know it's like i said when you look to the polls you you pull the people 70 percent of them say they're doing great better than ever and then those same people say that the country's doing like shit that means that that you know it, As has been shown by other, how do I say other propaganda, other people that have used propaganda widely against, you know, to win support and propaganda works. I mean, you, you just lie through your teeth and there's a lot of people that if you create the lie, that really fits the narrative.
|
Sam:
[3:17:14]
| Well, and this is, this is one thing that specifically Trump broke the taboo against. I mean, like, it used to be that Republican, Democrat alike, there was a modicum of you had to base your arguments in truth in some way.
|
Ivan:
[3:17:31]
| Some way, yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:17:32]
| Trump proved that that was completely unnecessary.
|
Ivan:
[3:17:35]
| Yep.
|
Sam:
[3:17:35]
| You could say whatever the hell you wanted, repeat it over and over again, and people would believe it.
|
Ivan:
[3:17:40]
| And people would buy it. Yep. Yep, yep, yep. By the way, DDHQ has moved out the other way to 8%.
|
Sam:
[3:17:46]
| Okay. Yep.
|
Ivan:
[3:17:47]
| But still haven't called but still haven't called any of them right um they've got rich rich rich says the economy.
|
Sam:
[3:17:56]
| Is going to be a shit show by the way.
|
Ivan:
[3:17:58]
| Yeah i i i i do expect at some point that he is going to cause a significant recession because a lot of the things that he has proposed every economist is analyst analyze do you think he's actually.
|
Sam:
[3:18:09]
| Going to do all the tariff stuff he said he was going to do.
|
Ivan:
[3:18:12]
| It's tough to tough to know with him i don't know Because part of.
|
Sam:
[3:18:16]
| His theory of the case was a lot of that is under presidential power that he doesn't even need congressional authorization.
|
Ivan:
[3:18:21]
| Well, he already did. He already imposed tariffs.
|
Sam:
[3:18:24]
| He did a bunch, right? Like he wants to do like much, much more.
|
Ivan:
[3:18:28]
| But, but look, as we have known before, you know, it's all about the grift. So I don't know.
|
Sam:
[3:18:36]
| Oh, Nebraska too, officially called.
|
Ivan:
[3:18:38]
| So I don't know. Will he? I don't know. I mean, who knows with him what he's really going to do. So I see on New York times, Wisconsin at 78% of votes in, and it's a margin of about a hundred thousand votes. Okay.
|
Sam:
[3:18:56]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:18:57]
| I'm looking at DDHQ they've got a little bit more of the votes reported and they actually have about the same margin there are about 100,000 I'm just trying to compare what they are both showing, Michigan DDHQ has more votes in than New York Times they got 55% of the vote they're showing a margin of about 70,000 votes in Michigan okay, New York Times has 52% in they're now showing a margin of about, 85,000. It's a little bit wider. Okay. The issues margins are narrower. Let's see. Pennsylvania, 87% of the votes in. Margin now is, it's narrowed down to 170,000.
|
Sam:
[3:19:42]
| That's still a lot.
|
Ivan:
[3:19:43]
| That's still a lot. Still a lot. DDHQ has basically around the same number. 84% in, 170,000 votes. 6 million counted. But again, neither of them have called it. I mean, I would expect, I mean, I see that, I mean, I mean, the issue obviously feels it's trending towards that, but this has got it at 8% chance, but obviously they don't feel comfortable with saying it's not.
|
Sam:
[3:20:16]
| Yeah, I see I see someone on Mastodon saying, hey, I remember in 2020 going to bed with all things pointing towards Trump and Biden still won. But remind me, because I'm having trouble remembering, like it was looking not great for Biden at this time four years ago, but not this bad.
|
Ivan:
[3:20:35]
| I, I, I, I. It was looking bad. I just don't remember how exactly bad it looked. but it looked better because that night they had called arizona for him so i think that that definitely was uh what was was different and georgia was not called i mean i know most haven't called it but ddhq hadn't called it now they haven't called they they called it and i'm pretty sure that they're they're right i looked at the numbers i mean new york times hasn't called it but I mean, they got, I mean, Trump's got George.
|
Sam:
[3:21:15]
| We got Nebraska one called finally by DDHQ. So this means we now have all of the states, all of the states and congressional districts with margins over 10% have now officially been called. What's left uncalled officially. Minnesota has not been called. Wisconsin has not been called. michigan pennsylvania georgia nevada arizona and alaska that's all that's left uncalled.
|
Ivan:
[3:21:44]
| The margin has narrowed to 100 you know somewhere around 150 000 votes 170 000 votes depending on pennsylvania but it's not, but i'm looking at yeah mich the one michigan has i mean new york times has a lot wider a margin than than ddhq but they are behind ddhq in terms of how much vote they're they've tabulated they're only at 50 now they've moved up to 54 they were 52 now they moved up to 54 ddhq's at 56 yeah so bruce.
|
Sam:
[3:22:21]
| Says gotta go thanks for having this thank you for joining us Bruce it's good to.
|
Ivan:
[3:22:26]
| Have you I think.
|
Sam:
[3:22:28]
| That leaves you me and Richard thank you also Richard for joining us I am cuckoo too.
|
Ivan:
[3:22:35]
| Well look, Richard just said he's going crazy look I mean over what I mean I mean are you going crazy because, Trump won yeah there are very likely one maybe that's.
|
Sam:
[3:22:58]
| Waiting on PA numbers that we're supposed to drop around midnight.
|
Ivan:
[3:23:02]
| Yeah well I I mean unfortunately I'm in my I even though there is a narrow very narrow, path to a victory perhaps less than 10%. I don't see it likely right now at this point. At this point, I am at the point that I am accepting. I have bargained into my acceptance of the fact the people of our nation have duly democratically decided that this is the country that they want.
|
Sam:
[3:23:43]
| Yep.
|
Ivan:
[3:23:45]
| And so that's...
|
Sam:
[3:23:46]
| So it's... It's...
|
Ivan:
[3:23:49]
| Not it's not by it's not a cheat it's not whatever it's not uh that's what people voted for.
|
Sam:
[3:23:57]
| Stupid electoral college but that's the rules everyone was playing under.
|
Ivan:
[3:24:02]
| But like when it fucked the electoral college when i'm looking at that the majority of people in the states of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin yeah have decided that this is what they want and florida well florida Your neighbors. Yeah. Well, I'm saying those because...
|
Sam:
[3:24:21]
| Because those are the ones that make the difference. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:24:23]
| Those were the ones that really made the difference tonight. I mean, nobody expected Florida. I mean, it would have been a miracle. But that... It's not even my neighbors directly. You know? I saw in our county, Harris won.
|
Sam:
[3:24:37]
| Right. So Richard says, I work alongside many mega folks, so I have been apprehensive for some time. The people of our nation apparently do not listen to anything he says. He doesn't mean that.
|
Ivan:
[3:24:52]
| Yeah. Well, it's, it's, it's like I mentioned what happened to the British leaving the Tories running their country for so long until they completely jammed it into the ground. And unfortunately, the people in this country, I mean, they let W did it, do it. Then the Republicans decided that their way out of it was just to lie about who did it, then blame Obama for not fixing it fast enough.
|
Sam:
[3:25:22]
| Richard says, I'm literally the bottom of the barrel, Puerto Rican and Haitian.
|
Ivan:
[3:25:26]
| Yeah well i know but i mean we are i mean they they like like like sam was saying we are with a candidate that has succeeded in convincing all of these people through a barrel load of full-throated lies and and you know he's figured out that propaganda that works, and they'll believe it. If he repeats it often enough with conviction, they'll believe it.
|
Sam:
[3:25:58]
| Well, and as Richard said, also key to this is A, well, a few more keys to this. A, they don't often believe it. When he says the worst things, they still say, yeah, he says that. That's just him talking. He doesn't mean that. He's not going to do that for real. and whereas we tend to take him deadly seriously as in he may not he may or may not succeed and do it but he wants to do it he was stopped so many times from doing worse things in his first administration and those guardrails are all gone and second a lot of them haven't heard the stuff in the first place no you know that because their media ecosystem completely insulates them from the worst of what he does and says. So they haven't even heard it. They just think, you know, he's the one standing up for us. He says the things we think, the racist things we think, the sexist things we think. But yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:27:02]
| No, transphobic things we think, homophobic things we think, xenophobic things we think.
|
Sam:
[3:27:08]
| And so, I mean, the things that he has explicitly said over the last few weeks that he intends to do right away when he hits office are horrific. They're going to, if he even remotely succeeds in 10% of them, so many people are going to be hurt badly. And if he does the things he says he's going to do on the economy, he's going to tank the economy immediately too. So, you know, our best hope at this point is he doesn't actually do all the things he said he was going to do or once again he ends up you know surrounded by incompetence who can actually pull it off.
|
Ivan:
[3:27:44]
| I'm not watching this fucking inauguration i i avoided watching the last one i'm not fucking watching this one i don't.
|
Sam:
[3:27:51]
| I mean.
|
Ivan:
[3:27:51]
| I actually got forced into watching the last fucking.
|
Sam:
[3:27:54]
| Inauguration i well you mean i was at an airport you mean trump's or not biden's i well and and look i presume biden's gonna attend i.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:02]
| Presume biden will attend.
|
Sam:
[3:28:03]
| Yep and harris yeah They're going to sit there and do their duty in a way that Donald Trump will not, would not. And I presume Donald Trump is going to treat them with complete disdain at that event too.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:20]
| Mm-hmm. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:28:23]
| Jon Stewart ended his live daily show tonight with, I just scrolled away. Hold on. I get it back. With, this is not the end. We have to continue to fight.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:37]
| I'm tired, Sam.
|
Sam:
[3:28:39]
| Yep.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:40]
| And I'm very tired.
|
Sam:
[3:28:42]
| Yeah. And I presume you mean existentially, not just because it's 1230.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:48]
| Yeah, exactly.
|
Sam:
[3:28:50]
| Yeah. I mean, it's depressing. Like, it's not going to be good.
|
Ivan:
[3:28:58]
| Kathy mentioned that apparently somebody's trying to make money, at least on this. So she's put into Slack that apparently, uh, there was a call mat on CNN tonight. Apparently. Yeah. I'm sure that that'll get some good.
|
Sam:
[3:29:12]
| Good timing. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:29:14]
| Well, the AP, the AP just called New Mexico for Harris, according to something I just saw.
|
Sam:
[3:29:20]
| They're a little slow too, but you know.
|
Ivan:
[3:29:23]
| I can fuck you. The fuck?
|
Sam:
[3:29:27]
| Uh, yeah. Yeah. I'm looking at all these. There's no substantial change in the situation in any of these states in the last hour.
|
Ivan:
[3:29:37]
| No, no, nope. What's that beeping? What do you got beeping over there?
|
Sam:
[3:29:47]
| Nothing. Nothing exciting.
|
Ivan:
[3:29:49]
| Nothing interesting?
|
Sam:
[3:29:50]
| Nothing interesting. I'm thinking we might still get a call in Minnesota today.
|
Ivan:
[3:29:57]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:29:58]
| I think they're...
|
Ivan:
[3:30:01]
| I will say this.
|
Sam:
[3:30:05]
| They're going to hold off on...
|
Ivan:
[3:30:07]
| The margin in Georgia has narrowed somehow a lot. is down now to about 140,000 votes, but not enough.
|
Sam:
[3:30:19]
| Yeah, we're still talking 3%.
|
Ivan:
[3:30:21]
| About 120,000 votes. I mean, there's 5% of the vote outstanding, but 5% out of, what, 5-6 million votes?
|
Sam:
[3:30:34]
| Well, this is why DDHQ is called that one.
|
Ivan:
[3:30:37]
| Yeah, I know.
|
Sam:
[3:30:38]
| I don't know why New York Times is being slow, but... Same with they're being slow with New Hampshire for some reason.
|
Ivan:
[3:30:46]
| How many votes were in Pennsylvania last time around?
|
Sam:
[3:30:53]
| The total votes? I don't know.
|
Ivan:
[3:30:55]
| Yeah. I'll look that up. Let's take a look. 3. 6.7 million votes. Okay. 6.7 million. We are at six. so basically it's reasonable to expect yeah it's reasonable to expect another 700 800 000 more votes to count for pennsylvania yeah for pennsylvania that's you know yeah that's a decent number but that's a decent number um so.
|
Sam:
[3:31:26]
| You in order to think you would flip it though you need to have a good expectation that those are going to be predominantly d.
|
Ivan:
[3:31:32]
| Or you just don't know what they are which is why you're not which is why you're you're holding up on calling okay right well yeah, so yeah because it is a it is a decent chunk of votes i i just i looked up the number because yeah that's it's a lot michigan 2020 so then shall let's see what how much let's see how many we got, okay okay, Michigan had about about 5.4 million votes okay so where are we now Michigan.
|
Sam:
[3:32:11]
| Richard by the way says the American carnage speech will be like a fairy tale compared to the next inauguration that's.
|
Ivan:
[3:32:18]
| What I yeah that's why I said I'm not watching the.
|
Sam:
[3:32:20]
| I read the comments out loud because anybody just watching the video.
|
Ivan:
[3:32:25]
| Oh yeah, sorry. Oh yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:32:27]
| Or listening when I attach this to the end of our next podcast.
|
Ivan:
[3:32:31]
| All right, Michigan. There are over 2 million votes to be counted. right yeah holy shit yeah out.
|
Sam:
[3:32:39]
| Of compared to three already in so.
|
Ivan:
[3:32:41]
| Yeah so there's like two million votes to be counted.
|
Sam:
[3:32:45]
| Which is why like 58 of votes.
|
Ivan:
[3:32:48]
| And yeah which is why okay which that goes why the dhq hasn't called it okay all right so because that's a lot of fucking votes and apparently there's a lot of uncertainty of where they are okay so wisconsin let's see, 2.7 million counted right now. Let's see how much we got last election. Okay. 3.2 million around there. 3.25 million. How many we got in Wisconsin counted so far? 3.25, 3.25?
|
Sam:
[3:33:19]
| About three. A little under three.
|
Ivan:
[3:33:21]
| Well, no, I'm saying 2.7.
|
Sam:
[3:33:24]
| Yeah, a little under three. That's what I said. 2.7.
|
Ivan:
[3:33:28]
| So we got half a million votes in in wisconsin but really i mean in pennsylvania michigan there's i mean pennsylvania is showing 89 but the reality is i guess it's i don't know how they're doing.
|
Sam:
[3:33:42]
| Well the thing is a lot of it's.
|
Ivan:
[3:33:45]
| 89 that percentage has always been a little bit tricky.
|
Sam:
[3:33:48]
| Well it's often in the past it was often precincts reporting which isn't really right percent of votes but precincts reporting doesn't really make sense for mail-in ballots so it's it's a really rough estimate and like and they can guess what the total turnout will be but they won't know so right so that's.
|
Ivan:
[3:34:06]
| Why yeah so so.
|
Sam:
[3:34:09]
| So my i'm getting here's what i'm thinking i think we might get a call from minnesota tonight but they are not going to call arizona wisconsin michigan or pennsylvania tonight no i don't think I don't think anybody's going to call any of those states tonight.
|
Ivan:
[3:34:23]
| No, and I see the amount of votes left over. Yeah, and I see the amount of leftover votes, and that's why they're not calling it. Because it's a lot of votes. I mean, is it looking good for Harris to win, like I said?
|
Sam:
[3:34:39]
| No.
|
Ivan:
[3:34:39]
| No. But there's definitely a lot of fucking votes left, which is why they're not calling it.
|
Sam:
[3:34:47]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[3:34:49]
| Fuck. And Arizona is not going to probably release any results right now. So...
|
Sam:
[3:34:59]
| I'll be back in just a minute.
|
Ivan:
[3:35:00]
| Okay oh.
|
Sam:
[3:35:03]
| Nbc is finally getting around to saying the senate's going republican.
|
Ivan:
[3:35:06]
| Oh god well too jesus you know welcome to the party assholes uh harris.
|
Sam:
[3:35:14]
| Not expected to speak at her thing in howard university today pictures of the crowd with everyone looking glum.
|
Ivan:
[3:35:20]
| Oh so i i i richard i i know that you're very this is very upsetting uh but, i don't you text richard texted me to see if i can say something that was comforting in some way i don't i can uh i don't i don't really have there's.
|
Sam:
[3:35:42]
| Nothing comforting to say right now, no harris's campaign chair is speaking at howard right now.
|
Ivan:
[3:35:49]
| What i can what i can, it's just not much that I can say that is positive. I mean all I can say is that trying to think what it is John Stewart said the fight's not over but I'm exhausted. I think that the one thing is that just make sure to take care of yourself take care of your families take care of your friends, and do what you can just to make sure that you those around you are safe as best as possible because unfortunately, not and look especially we can control especially.
|
Sam:
[3:36:34]
| For those in your life who are in minorities that will be endangered by this.
|
Ivan:
[3:36:40]
| Yeah you.
|
Sam:
[3:36:42]
| Know because, people's lives, I'm losing my voice. People's lives will be destroyed by this.
|
Ivan:
[3:36:53]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:36:54]
| You are already seeing it with people dying because of the abortion bans, but the way that they are, Cracking down on trans people, making it harder for gay people, making, you know, and despite the increases in minorities who apparently voted for Trump tonight, making it harder for all minorities.
|
Ivan:
[3:37:21]
| I was trying to say something to make them feel better. You're not helping them.
|
Sam:
[3:37:24]
| Yes, yes. Yes, yes. You're right. Take care of each other. That's what you were saying. Indeed.
|
Ivan:
[3:37:32]
| Yes. um i mean that's the best we can do you know and it's not even a thing oh yeah i don't know it's just that simple and like i was saying before i mean we've got a fucking, surge of authoritarianism that is on around the fucking world.
|
Sam:
[3:37:56]
| Yeah while i was gone richard had mentioned the courts being further packed hello Judge Cannon I would not be surprised in the slightest.
|
Ivan:
[3:38:04]
| By Justice Cannon I know I thought.
|
Sam:
[3:38:08]
| You were done reassuring.
|
Ivan:
[3:38:09]
| People and now we can.
|
Sam:
[3:38:10]
| Like slam people.
|
Ivan:
[3:38:11]
| Again now we can go like oh yeah thumbs up no I'm not giving a fucking thumbs up I'm giving this fucking finger where did you get my fucking thumbs up stupid computer thumbs up, stupid fucking thing.
|
Sam:
[3:38:29]
| New York Times up to 93 percent ddhq up to 94.
|
Ivan:
[3:38:34]
| Well how.
|
Sam:
[3:38:37]
| Did we call oh george has been called too so let me just move that over.
|
Ivan:
[3:38:42]
| Oh yeah yeah finally yeah yeah post on that i'll globe and char one that i called it at least this is so weird, ddhq has the michigan margin with 64 in at 50 000 votes okay new york times with 62 percent reporting has them at jesus over 200 000 votes swing so ddhq has it much tighter in michigan are they are they behind or.
|
Sam:
[3:39:17]
| Ahead in their count.
|
Ivan:
[3:39:17]
| They're ahead okay two point two percentage points So.
|
Sam:
[3:39:22]
| Richard has two questions. One, Fannie Willis got reelected. How bold will she try to be? My answer to that is it won't matter. Once he's sworn in, all state proceedings will be paused until the end of his presidency.
|
Ivan:
[3:39:36]
| It won't matter.
|
Sam:
[3:39:37]
| It won't matter.
|
Ivan:
[3:39:37]
| None of this will matter.
|
Sam:
[3:39:38]
| And I expect the same on New York, too. Like when they delayed the sentencing till after the election, like at this point, I would not be surprised if the sentencing is further delayed until after the presidency. So, you know, we've only got a couple of weeks until that sentencing is supposed to happen. I will be surprised if it does. He, he also, Richard also says, if I were Jack Smith, I'd be afraid for my life. There are a bunch of folks. I mean, I, I saw Cohen. You know, Trump's former right hand man has said explicitly that he's already been making plans to leave the country and already has a place that he is going to go. He's already arranged for the documents and it's his contingency plan that as soon as if Donald Trump was reelected, he'd be leaving immediately. There are a number of people, I think, who will feel like they're in danger. This also reiterates, by the way, the importance of like, it's inexcusable how slow the process to deal with January 6th was after it happened. It's also like.
|
Ivan:
[3:40:51]
| All these people are getting pardoned.
|
Sam:
[3:40:52]
| All of these people are going to get pardoned. Absolutely. All of the January 6th people are going to get pardoned. He's going to end the prosecutions against himself, obviously, as soon as he's sworn in. but you know all of that stuff should have happened faster and more aggressively and all.
|
Ivan:
[3:41:09]
| Right i don't want to keep talking about this.
|
Sam:
[3:41:13]
| You know there's all kinds of stuff you know woulda coulda shoulda right but didn't so yeah yeah i'm actually surprised donald trump hasn't officially announced his victory yet but he's i'm.
|
Ivan:
[3:41:27]
| Gonna i'm gonna tell you why because.
|
Sam:
[3:41:29]
| Because he doesn't know he.
|
Ivan:
[3:41:30]
| Was gonna do it exactly he doesn't have.
|
Sam:
[3:41:32]
| To he doesn't have to he can wait he can wait he can wait like the whole the whole announce early thing was if he was behind he's not yeah this is a this is a legitimate straight up win he doesn't have to play shenanigans yeah up to 95 percent at new york times for.
|
Ivan:
[3:41:51]
| Oh yeah, when are you going back to work.
|
Sam:
[3:41:55]
| Monday Hey, but Yvonne, look at the bright side. You're going to have RFK Jr. in charge of health care.
|
Ivan:
[3:42:04]
| Yeah, that's going to be very helpful, of course.
|
Sam:
[3:42:08]
| NBC is slow. New Mexico, they're calling. Oh, Alaska's about to close. Yay.
|
Ivan:
[3:42:19]
| By the way, right now, Trump is winning Bucks County, 50 to 49%.
|
Sam:
[3:42:26]
| Yep.
|
Ivan:
[3:42:27]
| I don't see where any of this comes from. There isn't anywhere in Pennsylvania where there's enough votes to make this change. I mean, if he's got Pennsylvania, he's got it. He's done.
|
Sam:
[3:42:38]
| Well, and he's got all three. He's got all three.
|
Ivan:
[3:42:41]
| It's just you know which i mean it's just they're ahead in account i mean they're ahead and counting i mean so it's like 92 yeah you know once you call pennsylvania that's it it's done so, like everybody said tipping point was pennsylvania well you know where you have it yet i mean technically.
|
Sam:
[3:43:02]
| Technically speaking you move pennsylvania over right now there's still a couple paths if you know but impossible not realistic paths given the rest of the map we're seeing.
|
Ivan:
[3:43:15]
| Yeah i mean yeah you take pennsylvania you'd.
|
Sam:
[3:43:19]
| Have to give them back michigan wisconsin arizona nevada.
|
Ivan:
[3:43:22]
| And that there's just the numbers aren't i mean there's such a huge discrepancy between ddhq michigan vote counts and new york time vote counts is as they were ahead i mean ddhq has more i mean ddhq shows a much tighter race oh okay and they've counted more okay votes.
|
Sam:
[3:43:48]
| Oh, yeah. In Michigan?
|
Ivan:
[3:43:51]
| Yeah. It's a big difference. It's not small.
|
Sam:
[3:43:56]
| Yeah, I can see why you aren't going to be calling Michigan.
|
Ivan:
[3:43:59]
| No.
|
Sam:
[3:44:01]
| Pennsylvania is harder to justify. Unless you know there's a lot of... Well, you mentioned the expected number outstanding is a lot still.
|
Ivan:
[3:44:10]
| Yeah, it's still a lot. you probably got about at least half a million votes in Pennsylvania right now where they're at right now in Michigan you got about 1.5 million, Wisconsin though, I mean well and I'm looking at early reporting Nevada but only 17% Donald's up Arizona Donald's up I mean he's up on.
|
Sam:
[3:44:41]
| Everything on all so nate cohen's summary from 35 minutes ago another hour has gone by but the story is still the same trump is favored in each of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin and we'll just have to wait longer to see whether maybe just maybe harris will do better than expected in key democratic areas but the the and it's better than expected not just in general but because she's been under underperforming everywhere today i.
|
Ivan:
[3:45:12]
| Don't know how i'm gonna try to get some sleep the fuck do i got what's my calendar looking like tomorrow jesus.
|
Sam:
[3:45:20]
| Richard says i have to be at the hospital in seven hours and have no idea how i can sleep yeah try.
|
Ivan:
[3:45:27]
| To get some rest richard because it's not.
|
Sam:
[3:45:36]
| I um you guys call a night okay bub's recording failed recording has stopped but everything up till now has been saved tell them to stop and restart well i guess i lost okay i'm holding on, and yvonne is back.
|
Ivan:
[3:45:57]
| Well the youtube recording is keeping the recording going right yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:46:03]
| Well the riverside said it saved your stuff okay.
|
Ivan:
[3:46:07]
| I don't know it's just for some reason.
|
Sam:
[3:46:09]
| I should have multiple copies of everything here if needed i'm.
|
Ivan:
[3:46:14]
| Just um fab.
|
Sam:
[3:46:17]
| Yeah i mean it's yeah i i mean, i i am in i don't know i was gonna say disbelief but not really i mean i knew this was a possibility yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:46:32]
| We knew we knew.
|
Sam:
[3:46:33]
| It was a possibility.
|
Ivan:
[3:46:34]
| We i mean.
|
Sam:
[3:46:35]
| But i i really really hoped that this was not the path that would be taken like i continue to be dumbfounded and disappointed by my fellow Americans. I mean, this is, this is a very, very dark path we are heading down. New York Times now has Pennsylvania as very likely are, pegged on that side. Michigan at lean. Wisconsin at lean. They're up to greater than 95% chance on their odds. And DDHQ is at 94%.
|
Ivan:
[3:47:13]
| I don't know. I don't get people. I don't understand why. They're just seduced by this.
|
Sam:
[3:47:23]
| You want us out of time to stop, Yvonne? I'll go another 15 minutes.
|
Ivan:
[3:47:28]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:47:29]
| Okay. You got work in the morning? Where's my mouse? Okay.
|
Ivan:
[3:47:41]
| Yeah. In 2020.
|
Sam:
[3:47:44]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:47:45]
| Hillary Clinton got in Florida 4.5 million votes. Kamala Harris got this time around 4.647 votes.
|
Sam:
[3:47:53]
| Which state was that?
|
Ivan:
[3:47:54]
| Florida. know that harris got 150 000 more votes than clinton right trump got 4.6 million in 2016 he got 6.1 million this year i mean 1.5 million more votes and this is and and this is while harris got also 150,000 more votes over, you know, what's his face? 2020, Harris way has underperformed, but 5.3 million votes, 4.6 million. Trump went from 5.6 to 6.1 million. I mean, he got more votes. He just got more people.
|
Ivan:
[3:48:46]
| It's not like Dems, I mean, that's what I was saying about people moving, it's not like Dems turned away as much, well some did, I guess, because we've got 5.3 million from Harris, but I mean, shit, I mean Harris got more votes than Hillary Clinton still not enough right, I mean by the way, Trump won the Tampa area Okay, that had been reliably democratic in the past.
|
Ivan:
[3:49:24]
| I mean, I'm looking through every election.
|
Sam:
[3:49:27]
| Trump is about to give a speech.
|
Ivan:
[3:49:30]
| Oh, God, I don't want to hear it. I don't fucking care. I don't want to listen to this clown. Not just the day did we lose Tampa. It went Republican, but Miami-Dade went also, which even in 2020 was Democratic. I highly doubt he's going to be magnanimous.
|
Sam:
[3:49:49]
| No, he doesn't have that in him. Roger Stone's back.
|
Ivan:
[3:49:56]
| Oh fuck who is talking now.
|
Sam:
[3:50:01]
| Some random reporter at the venue that Trump is heading towards.
|
Ivan:
[3:50:07]
| Isn't he at fucking Mar-a-Lago I mean I would have assumed.
|
Sam:
[3:50:10]
| Yeah I think he's at Mar-a-Lago well now he's coming from Mar-a-Lago the event is at some larger place some big looks like a hangar or something, uh fox declares pennsylvania for trump.
|
Ivan:
[3:50:27]
| I mean actually ddhq just did as well actually ddhq has declared trump the winner.
|
Sam:
[3:50:35]
| Yep well what okay yep that will do it.
|
Ivan:
[3:50:41]
| Yeah that's it.
|
Sam:
[3:50:42]
| So the range at this point is the best harris could do is to lose by two electoral votes if she ran the table on everything that hasn't been called yet, which isn't going to happen. And Trump's best is still to win by 86, which is what looks like will probably happen unless some of these states flip from where they are right now.
|
Ivan:
[3:51:06]
| Yeah. Yeah. That's what I'm still going to like.
|
Sam:
[3:51:09]
| Which is what the median case of my uniform swing model said was Trump by 86. So DDHQ hasn't officially declared him the winner yet. Cause they haven't died. Their red bar to two 70 includes states that he's ahead, but they haven't called yet. But.
|
Ivan:
[3:51:29]
| No, I was actually looking at the one that they declare Trump's. They have a check mark right beside the two 70.
|
Sam:
[3:51:35]
| Oh yeah, they do. Well, but yeah, but that, but the two 70 is based on including Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona.
|
Ivan:
[3:51:43]
| I don't know.
|
Sam:
[3:51:43]
| No, you're right.
|
Ivan:
[3:51:44]
| No, no, it doesn't.
|
Sam:
[3:51:46]
| No, I didn't know you're right. And they have the same count I have. So what am I saying? I have 270 as well in that Harris's best case is the 268 to 270 case, which is what they have there. But that is assuming a couple of the states that are really ahead.
|
Ivan:
[3:52:07]
| Yeah, Minnesota. So that's 223. I mean, she's not ahead in Nevada. She's not ahead in Arizona. Maybe she pulls one of those out. Well, he got 223 plus. Oh, he hasn't called Maine. Harris is ahead.
|
Sam:
[3:52:26]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[3:52:28]
| And by the way, I'm not even sure if this time he doesn't really win the popular vote.
|
Sam:
[3:52:33]
| He might at this point. It's going to be close.
|
Ivan:
[3:52:36]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[3:52:37]
| I mean, I think there's probably a significant chunk in California that might put Harris. Like, it's going to be close. It's going to be close. So popular vote could still go either way.
|
Ivan:
[3:52:48]
| Yeah because he's ahead by five million votes like right now oh god i got some, It's stupid columns already out. Could a Trump victory offer an unlikely opening to an American renewal?
|
Sam:
[3:53:08]
| You can be quiet, Chetsky.
|
Ivan:
[3:53:11]
| California has repealed Proposition 8, which I don't know which one it was, and enshrined same-sex marriage rights in the state constitution. So I don't remember which one was Proposition 8.
|
Sam:
[3:53:22]
| There we go.
|
Ivan:
[3:53:23]
| I guess it's time for me to try to...
|
Sam:
[3:53:26]
| Okay we'll close this out any.
|
Ivan:
[3:53:30]
| Parting shots you want to record for posterity.
|
Sam:
[3:53:34]
| No we'll collect our thoughts a little bit record a show later in the week but just, this is i i keep thinking about the quote about the start of the cold war about the the lights going off or was that start of world war two anyway the lights going off around europe or whatever this is this is ushering in what's going to be a very dark period in u.s and world history i don't see any way around that like one way or another it's going to be bad and just like a lot of these other dark periods in world history people voted it in.
|
Ivan:
[3:54:18]
| They wanted it.
|
Sam:
[3:54:19]
| Yep these.
|
Ivan:
[3:54:21]
| People wanted it.
|
Sam:
[3:54:22]
| Yep and we'll see how it goes i mean i i my the best hope at this point is that all of us are wrong and that it won't be nearly as bad as we fear i mean you know people people pointed out over and over again for the last trump administration see all the things you said would happen didn't all happen it wasn't that bad but it was it was really bad for a lot of people it was really bad for a lot of people yes and you know most of the like the majors haven't done the final calls yet but it but you know ddhq and the hill have and it's clear if you combine If you combine the calls from the various people who've made calls, it's clear, like, we're done here. So, it is what it is. And we'll all have to figure out how to live in that universe.
|
Ivan:
[3:55:23]
| Okay. All right. Well, I'm signing out. Okay.
|
Sam:
[3:55:26]
| And I'm just going to sign out, too. So, thank you, everybody who joined the live stream. and anybody who listens to this later as well. I'll include some version of all this at the end of our next episode, undoubtedly. And that's it. Prepare yourself for Trump too.
|
Ivan:
[3:55:49]
| All right. Good night.
|
Sam:
[3:55:51]
| Good night all.
|
