Sam:
[0:26]
| Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Friday, December 27th, 2024. It is just after 3.30 UTC. I'm Sam Inter, Yvonne Bow is here, and this is our annual prediction show. So in just a moment, we're going to start making predictions for 2025. For anybody new, the rules are they have to be things that actually happen in 2025 so that the first week of 2026, we'll know if we got it right or not, because this week we're doing predictions for 2025. And next week, we'll be reviewing our predictions for 2024 and seeing how we did. So we've done this for a number of years now, and we divide it into sections, politics, international, economy, technology, and hodgepodge. And I think, Yvonne, we should just jump right in we always tell ourselves at the beginning just make the damn prediction and move on because when we start discussing them we go really really long oh.
|
Ivan:
[1:31]
| Because we're we have a problem about going off on tangents yes.
|
Sam:
[1:35]
| We do okay yeah okay so as i've mentioned on the show the last couple weeks we had a google doc set up where people made suggestions ed bruce and john added suggestions to our page and then and then i added a few of my own and one thing that's different this time like other times i've gone back to the previous year's predictions blah blah blah and used them as inspiration for what we should predict this time i didn't do that this time i didn't even look at last year's stuff yet i just went through and thought what do i want to add so if i missed anything to the.
|
Ivan:
[2:13]
| Politics we have no real big elections to predict for example so that clears the slate on that, And, you know, so, so this year is a little bit different in that perspective, right? You know, political predictions are every.
|
Sam:
[2:29]
| Every other year has a whole bunch of election predictions, like either presidential or the midterms.
|
Ivan:
[2:37]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[2:37]
| Yeah. But when none, none of that this year, it's just sort of like, how are things going? I guess. Anyway, shall we jump right in, Yvonne, or do you have any other preambles you want to get out of the way?
|
Ivan:
[2:48]
| I don't want a preamble. i i i'm still running a hospital here i i can't no no no no preambling.
|
Sam:
[2:55]
| Okay and if the if yvonne has to pause at any moment we will pause and continue as needed okay so first up front but first thing is politics and first sort of subsection of that is presidential and the very first suggestion is from ed who wants to know how long will trump keep musk as an advisor for doge and i i'll generalize this how long will he keep on his invite you know i don't know answer this how you wish i don't think i.
|
Ivan:
[3:28]
| I i think that i will be it doesn't he will not fill he would not he will not last the year.
|
Sam:
[3:38]
| Okay that that might be any more specific no no.
|
Ivan:
[3:42]
| No no i think that at some point before i'm gonna be broader on my prediction just you know trying.
|
Sam:
[3:49]
| To because you usually get yourself in trouble being super person exactly so.
|
Ivan:
[3:52]
| I will say that by december 31st he will no longer be such and i don't want to go into a tangent so.
|
Sam:
[4:00]
| I'm afraid.
|
Ivan:
[4:01]
| From talking about what's been going on right now.
|
Sam:
[4:04]
| So i'll give you a prediction i'll say that it's, first of all i i'll say it won't be it won't be one of these deals where trump like fires him via tweet or something although that would be really amusing with musk now owner owning no no no.
|
Ivan:
[4:24]
| Trump will put it as a truth.
|
Sam:
[4:26]
| Yeah as a truth but no i don't think either of those will happen i think it will be more like Trump will make it increasingly clear that he's not paying attention to Musk anymore. And Musk can continue doing whatever the hell he's doing, but Trump will ridicule him or ignore him or something like that.
|
Ivan:
[4:47]
| I mean... god so so let me see maybe because now of course will he be an advisor what you know what does that even yeah yeah yeah this is okay so what what i'm right now basically musk is like at at trump's side like constantly okay right i mean you know he went to a football game he was there with him he's a mar-a-lago he was talking to jeff trump was talking to jeff bezos and he's like also jeff bezos turns and i said fuck how did you get in here you know that kind of stuff um you know, i i just i'm trying to define the line where all of a sudden he's not like his advisor and it's a little bit uh this is what i'm saying i think it'll be fuzzier.
|
Sam:
[5:40]
| Than that rather than.
|
Ivan:
[5:41]
| Yeah, that's why I'm like, you know, right. I mean, it could be an outright declaration. I mean, because it's happened before. I mean, Trump has very quickly turned on certain people.
|
Sam:
[5:50]
| He absolutely has.
|
Ivan:
[5:51]
| So that's very possible. And so I guess, you know, no, I don't.
|
Sam:
[5:59]
| I think to summarize your prediction, by the end of the year, it will be incredibly obvious that Elon has a lot less influence than he did at the beginning of the year.
|
Ivan:
[6:10]
| Okay. Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll, yeah, yeah. Or he's not really driving, like, you know, he's no longer in the, appearing at every event that, that, you know, Trump is at, basically.
|
Sam:
[6:24]
| And I'll say, I'll just be a little bit more aggressive and say that that will be incredibly obvious by the end of June. You know.
|
Ivan:
[6:35]
| I think that that is, you know, that is the, uh.
|
Sam:
[6:39]
| And by then, if it happens in January, I'm still right.
|
Ivan:
[6:45]
| Yeah. Yeah. I think that's fair, but I'm giving myself that sometime by the end of the year, because I don't want to be that precise.
|
Sam:
[6:53]
| Okay. And by the way, on Doge specifically, there were reports earlier today, even that Ramaswamy is in trouble too. Like Trump's not happy with him.
|
Ivan:
[7:06]
| Listen, let's be honest. I mean, Trump eventually, I mean, there's been almost no advisor that survived Trump. Almost. Almost. You know, so.
|
Sam:
[7:21]
| Okay. Anyway.
|
Ivan:
[7:23]
| Anyway.
|
Sam:
[7:23]
| Let's move on.
|
Ivan:
[7:24]
| Yes, please.
|
Sam:
[7:25]
| Let's move on. Another from Ed. Will legislation to privatize the USPS, the Postal Service, be introduced? And if it is, will it pass both houses? I'll start on this one.
|
Ivan:
[7:38]
| There is no way in hell that this is happening.
|
Sam:
[7:43]
| Here's what I was going to say. It will probably be introduced because I suspect this is one of those things that gets introduced every time. But you're right.
|
Ivan:
[7:55]
| Has it been introduced?
|
Sam:
[7:56]
| Well, introduced has a very, very low bar, right? All it takes is one member dropping something into the bucket, essentially, and it doesn't usually go anywhere. I don't know. I could be wrong.
|
Ivan:
[8:09]
| Let's be clear. I mean, the one thing is.
|
Sam:
[8:11]
| It doesn't have.
|
Ivan:
[8:11]
| But.
|
Sam:
[8:12]
| Maybe not. Maybe not. I'm trying to remember. I think it has to do a little bit more to get an HR number.
|
Ivan:
[8:17]
| You know, or I know that because the USPS isn't just a creation coming from, you know, a legislative, you know, legislation. I mean, the USPS part of it is it's it doesn't it's not that it's created in the Constitution.
|
Sam:
[8:36]
| The Constitution specifically says that one of the things the legislature is authorized to do is set up a post.
|
Ivan:
[8:43]
| Yeah, exactly. Exactly, and regulate it as well.
|
Sam:
[8:46]
| And regulate it.
|
Ivan:
[8:47]
| Let me put my- And let me see. I looked it up to make sure. Establish post office and post room. regulate the mail system, designate certain materials as non-mailable, criminalize abuses of the postal system, protect the mails. I mean, it's pretty broad. Mandates are related to this. And I find it very difficult to privately manage.
|
Sam:
[9:16]
| Let me say this. My version of my prediction.
|
Ivan:
[9:21]
| Oh my God, again, we're in a mandate. Okay, no, it's not. But listen, there is no fucking way in hell the post office is being privatized at the year 2025.
|
Sam:
[9:30]
| No, no.
|
Ivan:
[9:30]
| End the discussion.
|
Sam:
[9:33]
| Let me say what I was going to say. I will not make a prediction on will legislation be introduced because it could not be. But you are absolutely right. It will not pass both houses if it is. There is no way legislation to do that will pass both houses of Congress.
|
Ivan:
[9:54]
| Billion years.
|
Sam:
[9:55]
| Now, could there be additional executive action to reduce what the Postal Service is doing? Sure, but that's different from privatizing the whole damn thing. And to some degree, actually, it's semi-privatized already. It is not a governmental agency. It is funded in part. It's got a weird quasi relationship. Anyway, moving on.
|
Ivan:
[10:25]
| Postal workers are federal work.
|
Sam:
[10:28]
| Yes. But it's got this weird quasi-status where- Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[10:34]
| But it's postal workers or federal workers. Okay.
|
Sam:
[10:38]
| There will not, we both agree, there will not be legislation to further privatize the post office that passes both houses of Congress in 2025. Moving on.
|
Ivan:
[10:48]
| Moving on.
|
Sam:
[10:49]
| This one's from John. Will Trump's inauguration crowd size be bigger or smaller than 2016? team.
|
Ivan:
[10:56]
| You know, I think it's going to be bigger. I, for whatever the hell reason, I don't know why this is right now, but I'm seeing more Trump stickers now than before the election. Oh, so you're noticing this too?
|
Sam:
[11:15]
| I haven't noticed this specifically, but I'm not surprised. Like one of the things we talked about pre-election was that there was a distinctly, obviously less enthusiasm than 2016. But he won anyway, and he got more votes than 2016. But will the inauguration be bigger? My prediction, you're saying yes, it will be bigger. My prediction will be it will be smaller, but Trump will claim it's bigger, and of course Trump will also claim it's the biggest inauguration ever of all time.
|
Ivan:
[11:50]
| Of all time. but I think straight up it will be bigger I just think that I don't know if, these guys are just i don't know right now they're kind of all excited i keep hearing how they are excited like you know about how musk is going to fix everything it's one of the things i heard this week he's going to fix the water he's going to fix the water in california sam with.
|
Sam:
[12:19]
| The big faucet from canada.
|
Ivan:
[12:20]
| Yes i.
|
Sam:
[12:21]
| Remember i remember the big.
|
Ivan:
[12:22]
| Faucet yeah for the big faucet yeah yeah big faucet yeah okay.
|
Sam:
[12:26]
| Next up from bruce will trump use recess opponents for opponent.
|
Ivan:
[12:32]
| Recess appointment i like that question can we can we answer that question first will.
|
Sam:
[12:37]
| Trump use recess appointments for any cabinet positions i'm gonna say no because he won't need to.
|
Ivan:
[12:42]
| I don't think i don't think he will you know i don't think he will need to i i think either he's you know i don't think he'll I think they.
|
Sam:
[12:50]
| Got gates to drop out and the Republican Senate will pretty much approve everybody else. Like there are a couple that are on the edge, but I think even if they're in trouble, I, you know, I don't think they'll.
|
Ivan:
[13:06]
| They'll, they'll substitute. They'll figure it out.
|
Sam:
[13:09]
| They'll come up right.
|
Ivan:
[13:10]
| Yeah they'll come up.
|
Sam:
[13:12]
| With yeah rather than doing recess appointments because the recess appointment also congress has to cooperate and surprisingly both the senate and the house seem to have pushed back when trump wanted to push that way of doing things he wanted them to just go into recess immediately after his inauguration and let him do everything with recess appointments and they're like nah no.
|
Ivan:
[13:34]
| We're not doing that shit yeah.
|
Sam:
[13:35]
| So okay moving on From Bruce, will all cabinet positions be filled and Senate approved by October 1st, which is the end of the fiscal year? I'll say yes.
|
Ivan:
[13:46]
| Yeah, by October 1st, sure. Yeah, I'll go with that. Yes.
|
Sam:
[13:51]
| Okay. Now, Ed says, oh, okay, this is kind of duplicate. I didn't realize it, and I kind of duplicated this later. But how many of the cabinet approved appointments will be released before the 1st of January 2025? So within, within, no, not, okay, that doesn't make sense. Maybe it means 2026. Like, I think what this means, the wording is confusing me a little, lad, is will any of the approved appointments, like, be fired before the end of the year? That's how I interpret this. I will say fired or resigned, yes. There will be turnover.
|
Ivan:
[14:30]
| Some of Trump's original facts. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's like a given. Yes. Yes.
|
Sam:
[14:36]
| Before the end of the year, at least one of the cabinet.
|
Ivan:
[14:40]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah.
|
Sam:
[14:41]
| That was approved will no longer be.
|
Ivan:
[14:44]
| Listen, even in good administrations, that shit happens. You know?
|
Sam:
[14:48]
| Sometimes they make it a year.
|
Ivan:
[14:50]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. But sometimes, but even in good administrations, sometimes that happens. Yes.
|
Sam:
[14:55]
| Yeah. So I'll say yes as well. We both agree. And then that's a dupli- I was going to ask, will there be any turnover? Same thing. Okay. Now, from me, we're now onto the me ones. Will there be any pre-inauguration drama of the January 6th, 2021 sort at all?
|
Ivan:
[15:15]
| No.
|
Sam:
[15:16]
| And not necessarily like Democrats trying to take over the Congress.
|
Ivan:
[15:20]
| But like anything. No.
|
Sam:
[15:22]
| Like, yeah, no, no.
|
Ivan:
[15:24]
| No.
|
Sam:
[15:25]
| No. I think you're probably right.
|
Ivan:
[15:28]
| Yeah, nothing's happening.
|
Sam:
[15:30]
| There might be some token sort of thing. If you remember the first time Trump won, there was some January 6th stuff where some Democrats tried to contest it, and they were immediately shut down by the Democrats.
|
Ivan:
[15:47]
| Yeah, but nothing happened. But we were talking about the faithless electors, blah, blah, blah, that kind of stuff.
|
Sam:
[15:52]
| Yeah, we had faithless electors.
|
Ivan:
[15:55]
| None of that happened.
|
Sam:
[15:57]
| Yeah, none of that happened. But one of the things that has been talked about is the Supreme Court's decision about Trump's eligibility to be president via insurrection, in part said, well, that's Congress's decision. And the right time to mount those objections would be when you count the votes, unless they had passed legislation, which they didn't. And so at least some Democrats are saying they should put an an effort to say, well, he's ineligible to become president, so he can't get electoral votes. So I wouldn't be shocked if some Democrat tried that.
|
Ivan:
[16:38]
| But it's just going to be like for nothing.
|
Sam:
[16:40]
| But it'll be shut down immediately.
|
Ivan:
[16:42]
| It'll be a big nothing burger. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[16:45]
| Harris herself would be banging the gavel and saying, you know, done. I mean, they might have to vote on it or something. I actually don't think that's going to happen. I'm going to predict that does not happen, but some people are talking about it. And if it does happen, it will be shut down immediately. And I don't anticipate any other drama of that sort.
|
Ivan:
[17:06]
| No.
|
Sam:
[17:07]
| Okay. Next. Will Harris be president for a short time between Biden and Trump? Some people have talked about like Biden resigning like a week early or something just to get her to be just so much to piss off Trump. I don't know. Like she would be 47 instead of him.
|
Ivan:
[17:30]
| That actually sounds like I like this idea because they've made all these hats and things and stuff or whatever. It's just the fuck with them that he's not 40. He's not 47. Okay, I do like this idea. At first I thought, well, what the fuck, why not? But I got to admit, I like this idea. I don't think it's going to happen, but I definitely like this idea because that would, oh my God, can you imagine they got all this inauguration shit and they've got, I've seen all the hats with the 40 and all this shit and you just like completely fuck those people. Oh, that would be awesome. I'm like, God damn it. I'm writing to Biden right now. Just say Biden, please. Just, just, you know what? Just knock off early. knock off a.
|
Sam:
[18:11]
| Week you know that's.
|
Ivan:
[18:13]
| It just to fucking stick it to those bastards yes I like this idea but I don't think he's going to do it.
|
Sam:
[18:20]
| I also like the idea I also think he's not going to do it will he will attend the inauguration as president and hand it over to Trump like the good institutionalist trooper he is, okay next up who will be president at the end of 2025 so this obviously donald.
|
Ivan:
[18:44]
| Trump will be.
|
Sam:
[18:45]
| President i i will i will agree obviously the only ways that would not happen are he resigns the 25th amendment or he dies you know all possible all possible but unlikely i i will you know i will not predict any of those things but you know he like what yeah i mean like he could resign just because he's bored he's gotten everything he's he didn't go to jail he's gotten he's gotten out of everything yep and so he doesn't really want or like the job so do it for a little while and then be like i'm out have fun jd you know that that's possible if like he his health or dementia or something gets really bad you could see a a 25th amendment scenario but also probably unlikely even if those things were bad they'd probably more likely do like the dave scenario or something you know or or what what's the other one the one where they carried around the dead guy for like in the movies you know the that one i don't you know the one i'm.
|
Sam:
[20:02]
| You don't know anything anymore. Yeah. Anyway, one of those things they would do something or finally he dies. You never know, but I'm not going to predict that. Although you've been predicting he'd die of natural causes for like eight years.
|
Ivan:
[20:19]
| And you know what? Obviously I've been wrong. I'm going, I'm going, listen, is what I'm going to do. I think the year that I predicted Fidel was going to die, wasn't going to die. He died.
|
Sam:
[20:33]
| Yes.
|
Ivan:
[20:34]
| So. So. Oh, you got fireworks?
|
Sam:
[20:39]
| Apparently somebody's setting off fireworks.
|
Ivan:
[20:41]
| This is a little bit early for that, but okay. All right. So I'm going to go, I'm going to play the opposite. Say you're not going to die.
|
Sam:
[20:51]
| Okay. Now that, that does have bring up something I didn't put on the list, but it reminded me of, Will there be any additional assassination attempts in 2025 of Donald Trump? Of Donald Trump.
|
Ivan:
[21:05]
| Man, I'm going to say yes.
|
Sam:
[21:07]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[21:08]
| We've had, I mean, he's already had two.
|
Sam:
[21:11]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[21:12]
| I mean, that, you know, maybe more. I, yeah, I mean, yes. I mean, the mood right now with assassination has been upped many not.
|
Sam:
[21:24]
| People seem to be all excited about it. They want more. I'll say yes, there will be more attempts. I will also say they will be unsuccessful. Like, at least one. There will be at least one attempt.
|
Ivan:
[21:35]
| I don't know. Fuck, you know, Sam, they got really close. I mean, look.
|
Sam:
[21:40]
| They did. They did.
|
Ivan:
[21:41]
| I mean, listen, that guy was a couple of inches away from, you know, Trump being dead. It was, you know, I mean.
|
Sam:
[21:48]
| Oh, yeah.
|
Ivan:
[21:49]
| So I'm not writing it off that, you know.
|
Sam:
[21:52]
| No but i i think that because of that in part everything will be tightened up like so.
|
Ivan:
[22:01]
| Yeah but but you know one problem that you count is that trump just loves to not listen or follow.
|
Sam:
[22:08]
| And that is true advice like so they they could be trying to keep him in a bubble and he'd just reject it and go out wherever.
|
Ivan:
[22:17]
| Yeah. Okay.
|
Sam:
[22:19]
| So, okay. Next up the, the, the only one of the Trump cases that has not been, officially fully delayed until after is the New York case. Everybody seems to assume that the New York judge has indefinitely delayed sentencing, but hasn't yet said, we're going to wait until after Trump's term. Will he issue a sentence in that case, or will he just delay it until after the election? I think he's delaying it until after the election. He's not going to do that.
|
Ivan:
[22:51]
| I think he's going to delay it until after he leaves the president.
|
Sam:
[22:54]
| I mean, not the election, until after the four-year term, until Trump's not- Well.
|
Ivan:
[22:58]
| Until he's not president anymore.
|
Sam:
[23:00]
| Period. Yes. I don't think he'll, like, there's still some motions in play to dismiss it out of hand that he hasn't dealt with yet.
|
Ivan:
[23:07]
| But he's already rejected that.
|
Sam:
[23:09]
| He rejected, no, he rejected one of the motions to dismiss. There's still another one pending. But I don't think he's going to dismiss it, but I don't think he's going to issue a sentence. He is going to just pause the case for four years or how, or last if Trump isn't president for four years, but I'm assuming four years. So in any case, it won't happen this year. Okay. Will the Trump administration openly investigate any political opponents or members of the press?
|
Ivan:
[23:36]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[23:37]
| I will agree. Yes. Will they actually indict any of those people in 2025?
|
Ivan:
[23:44]
| Oh, yeah. I'm sure they'll indict somebody. I mean, remember, you're saying somebody.
|
Sam:
[23:49]
| Well, I'm saying specifically political opponents or members of the press.
|
Ivan:
[23:53]
| Specifically a political opponent. something they'll cook up.
|
Sam:
[23:58]
| Something on somebody by the end of the year this includes like the the congress people who are involved in the january 6 investigation it includes jack smith and his staff it includes like you know any basically any democrat it includes like all of the all of the reporters at cnn and msnbc or hosts that he doesn't there will be some.
|
Ivan:
[24:20]
| Clearly visible like, you know, him ordering a prosecution of somebody that he, he, he, he openly despises.
|
Sam:
[24:30]
| I'm going to, I'm going to say investigations in 2025, but no indictments yet. He'll be able to harass people a lot with just the investigations. Maybe there'll be indictments in a future year, but I'm going to say not in 2025, just investigations, but, but open, obvious investigations where we know they're happening and the it's in the news and their mate their statements are being made about the things that these people did wrong and blah because of course like the other yeah all of that like all of the investigation we will know stuff about investigations but i i'm gonna say no indictments and so you're.
|
Ivan:
[25:07]
| Saying investigations don't indictment i'm saying investigations that's at least one some one person will get indicted.
|
Sam:
[25:13]
| Okay, last one for presidential will trump initiate hostile military action anywhere the u.s was not already involved in 2024 with us say no i i think.
|
Ivan:
[25:26]
| No i think at the end he chickens out on all of these.
|
Sam:
[25:29]
| Yeah in terms of direct action like it might be more subtle in terms of like supporting stuff like we're doing in ukraine we're not we're not.
|
Ivan:
[25:37]
| Invade we're not invading panama we're not invading.
|
Sam:
[25:40]
| Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait. We got separate questions on those later in the show.
|
Ivan:
[25:44]
| Like, well, what I'm saying is those are military actions. What I'm saying is that we're not invading. We're not, you know, we're not doing it. I don't think we're doing any of that.
|
Sam:
[25:53]
| Okay. I will ask you specific questions on specific countries later on. And you could say no to be consistent. I will. i'm gonna say no as well and that will presage several other questions we have later like i i feel like there's some scenarios where trump might end up doing that but i'm not going to predict them outright okay next up congress will t c j a be renewed i will admit i actually don't know what that is i'm gonna look it up.
|
Ivan:
[26:29]
| I don't know.
|
Sam:
[26:30]
| What tax cut and jobs act that's so it's it's it's trump's tax cuts oh tax.
|
Ivan:
[26:36]
| Cuts of course they're gonna renew that shit yeah.
|
Sam:
[26:39]
| Now wait a second oh because they're gonna do it through reconciliation right so they don't need 60 votes in the senate yeah.
|
Ivan:
[26:47]
| They're gonna do that that's how they did the first time yeah they're.
|
Sam:
[26:49]
| Gonna get that done yeah i think that's like i agree that's like one of the first things yeah that's they're probably going to do that right away in january or february yeah like that's going to be a first hundred the one thing they were trying.
|
Ivan:
[27:02]
| To do is they're trying to throw a bone at some people, increase the assault deduction.
|
Sam:
[27:08]
| I remember that being talked about in the campaign yeah yeah they will they will they will extend the tax cuts yes agreed okay next up for me how many speakers of the house will there be in 2025 oh with two okay so johnson who will start the year no matter what yeah plus somebody else somebody.
|
Ivan:
[27:33]
| Else yeah yeah these guys are just fighting so so much already that i don't see how johnson survives.
|
Sam:
[27:41]
| I'm they.
|
Ivan:
[27:44]
| They hate johnson a.
|
Sam:
[27:46]
| Lot i'm gonna go out i'm gonna go out of limb here and say three three wow three johnson whoever replaces johnson and whoever replaces that person okay um now i i worded this wrong in our quip but Like when they actually go in for the new Congress and initially vote for the speaker, will Johnson be the winner of that vote? Or will like, will he become speaker for the next Congress? And then in your case, lose later, or is he going to lose right up off the bat?
|
Ivan:
[28:24]
| No, I think I don't think he's going to lose right off the bat. I think it just it just happens later.
|
Sam:
[28:29]
| So you think he will actually win the speaker vote in January?
|
Ivan:
[28:33]
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think he gets a speaker boat later, but it's just, because, yeah, they're going to, He's going to win it, and then sometime later he will lose.
|
Sam:
[28:44]
| Because he seemed like he was in trouble a couple weeks ago, but then it seems like he maybe recovered a little bit from that.
|
Ivan:
[28:51]
| But that's why I don't think, but the thing is that they kicked the ball, they kicked the can down the road on this bunch of thing and whatever. I think that's when this whole thing implodes.
|
Sam:
[29:02]
| There is one House member who has explicitly said that he won't vote for Johnson, but only one. but I think he can only afford two, something like that. So your prediction is, yes, he will win the speaker vote in January, but when they have to deal with government funding again in like March or whenever it is, that's when it'll blow up for him and there'll be a new speaker after that. That's your prediction?
|
Ivan:
[29:29]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[29:30]
| Okay. I guess I'll do. My prediction is that he will not win the speaker vote in January, that it'll be contentious right away. And then at some point later in the year, maybe it's the March thing. Maybe it's a little bit later when they have to deal with the debt limit. I don't know. Then there will be another crisis later in the year and he will lose the speakership because of that.
|
Ivan:
[29:55]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[29:56]
| Okay. How many ballots will the first speaker selection take? Will he win on the first ballot, Yvonne?
|
Ivan:
[30:04]
| No. I'm going to give it I'm going to say less than 10.
|
Sam:
[30:09]
| Less than 10. Yeah. Okay. I will agree with you on less than 10, but should I be more specific? Like, I don't think it's going to be one. Like, I mean, maybe he'll pull.
|
Ivan:
[30:23]
| Okay. It's not, that's what I'm saying. It's not going to be, it's going to be more than one. So I'm saying two to 10.
|
Sam:
[30:29]
| You're saying two to 10.
|
Ivan:
[30:31]
| Okay. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[30:32]
| I'll say five to 10. Like, so not beating what we got with McCarthy. Cause like.
|
Ivan:
[30:39]
| No.
|
Sam:
[30:39]
| I think they learned their lesson from that. And also they have a deadline. They're getting sworn in on January 3rd. They have to be able to count electoral votes on January 6th. So they only have two and a half days to do this. If they don't succeed in picking a speaker by the 6th, it is constitutionally unclear what happens. Now, I would suspect that whoever was clerk of the house and acting speaker would just do that. But like, theoretically, the Speaker of the House has to open that session on January 6th. And yeah, so because officially the House doesn't exist until they've picked a speaker. So I think they'll be under a lot of pressure. So I'll say five to 10. Now, of course, now that we've both said that, he'll win on the first ballot.
|
Ivan:
[31:31]
| But of course he will.
|
Sam:
[31:33]
| Okay. Now, next up, since the House majority is so, so thin, after they take the majority in January, will Republicans keep the House majority all year long?
|
Ivan:
[31:47]
| I mean, that's another way that I think they could lose a fucking position. Yes.
|
Sam:
[31:52]
| All they need is the wrong couple of people to have something happen to them or, you know, whether it's a resignation, a scandal, death, illness, whatever.
|
Ivan:
[32:02]
| I think that they have high odds of losing it, but I still think they're over 50% of on keeping it. So I'm saying they'll somehow manage to, to hang on through the end of the year.
|
Sam:
[32:14]
| I will agree. Like as much fun as that scenario would be, like, I'm not going to outright predict it.
|
Ivan:
[32:22]
| But it's very possible.
|
Sam:
[32:24]
| It's very possible. Like, you know, like a bunch of Republicans have left for the Trump administration, but you know, in that case, they're going to, he's, he has picked house members, but he's picked house members from safe Republican districts. They're only a handful of purple districts. you would need a republican in a purple district.
|
Ivan:
[32:44]
| But you have something untimely.
|
Sam:
[32:46]
| Happen to them and.
|
Ivan:
[32:47]
| Yeah yeah yeah but here's the thing you say that and then you still remember what happened when sessions got taken from the senate and and and and went you know and a special election was there and we wound up with a freaking democratic alabama senator you're.
|
Sam:
[33:05]
| Right and also there's temporary situations right like.
|
Ivan:
[33:08]
| Right if.
|
Sam:
[33:09]
| You lose if you lose three or four republicans even from safe district.
|
Ivan:
[33:13]
| Right it.
|
Sam:
[33:14]
| Would temporarily give the house.
|
Ivan:
[33:16]
| To the democrats until.
|
Sam:
[33:18]
| They were replaced.
|
Ivan:
[33:19]
| Great so it's very tenuous and and yeah just picking up some safe districts especially on an off-year election doesn't guarantee squat i mean it's happened before hell it happened to the Democrats when Kennedy went and died and they fucking went like they got a goddamn Republican to Massachusetts. You know, this shit happens. Okay. And so just because they're safe districts, it's definitely no guarantee.
|
Sam:
[33:46]
| Okay. Next up and, and everybody, politics is always our longest segment here. So last question in the Congress section, will congressional Republicans, either the house or the Senate break with Trump on any significant issue in notable numbers.
|
Ivan:
[34:05]
| Any significant issue.
|
Sam:
[34:08]
| And of course that's lots of wiggle room for interpretation there. Like, and I will say like, let's exclude like the debt limit and, and, and like budget funding because the routine normal thing for Republicans going back like more than a decade, is those things get passed with a significant chunk of Republicans voting no, and then all of the Democrats plus some Republicans pass.
|
Ivan:
[34:37]
| I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I. I think there, there will be something already in this first year because the problem is that he's thrown out so much. I mean, he's been just talking about so many fucking things to do that are just nuts, but something is going to, something is going to wind up being a fucking shit show.
|
Sam:
[35:02]
| I don't agree on, I mean, I agree fully on shit show. I will say, I'm going to say no, based on the significant numbers thing. like will one or two republicans come out against him on one or two issues maybe up to like a half dozen or some so yeah probably especially in the senate maybe in the house too but like not enough to like i'm.
|
Ivan:
[35:24]
| Saying like remember.
|
Sam:
[35:25]
| I'm not saying.
|
Ivan:
[35:26]
| That they're going to fight about everything i'm.
|
Sam:
[35:28]
| Saying there.
|
Ivan:
[35:29]
| Is going to be one thing that there are going to be some of his cronies and people are going to be pushing it that they're all going to go say fuck.
|
Sam:
[35:37]
| I mean it's essentially already happened like so so i i see that there's a pretty good chance of it happening and significant numbers quote-unquote i was about to say if it's not significant enough to like block what he's doing then it doesn't count but you only need one or two people in the house right lock anything at this point so right i'll i'll say at least some issue i'll agree with you at least something will be foiled by renegade Republicans.
|
Ivan:
[36:06]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[36:07]
| Now, Trump will, of course, spin it like in such a way like once he realizes that's happening, he'll back off or something.
|
Ivan:
[36:15]
| He'll spin it. He'll spin it. Listen, Trump will spin. Listen, Trump will declare victory over any defeat.
|
Sam:
[36:22]
| Yes, of course. Like, yes.
|
Ivan:
[36:25]
| I mean, even if he loses, he always wins.
|
Sam:
[36:27]
| Trump will never admit defeat on anything. There's a prediction right there. For the year, Trump will not— He will not be.
|
Ivan:
[36:34]
| Oh my God, we have been defeated at this. Those words will not be uttered from this mouth ever.
|
Sam:
[36:39]
| Yes, agreed. Okay, other politics, and then we will wrap up politics. Will any substantive reforms—this is from Bruce, and by that he means greater than one billion dollars wait one billion not trillion one billion small but one billion nothing you know like i wouldn't even notice it if somebody dropped a billion on me you know um or me anyway i'm at from bought.
|
Ivan:
[37:07]
| That bought that mega millions.
|
Sam:
[37:08]
| Yeah i got i got one too like so you shouldn't have bothered because i'm clearly gonna win okay you know.
|
Ivan:
[37:15]
| All right i'm.
|
Sam:
[37:16]
| Already like shopping for yachts will some will any substantive reforms emerge from doge let's let's negotiate on the billion category like i'll say like no definitely no for the trillion level like they're aiming at multiple trillion like 1.5 trillion or 2.5 trillion or whatever that's a definite no a billion is small though could they find a billion somewhere i bet you.
|
Ivan:
[37:42]
| They can find a billion okay a billion yes will they find a billion yes but that's not really that's just chump change that's.
|
Sam:
[37:49]
| Not really substantive.
|
Ivan:
[37:50]
| No that's chump change yeah i will.
|
Sam:
[37:55]
| Say for for the most part doge will be a complete failure they.
|
Ivan:
[38:00]
| Will come.
|
Sam:
[38:00]
| Up with a whole bunch of things that like that.
|
Ivan:
[38:04]
| That are that are that are just that are just politically toxic yeah and everybody will say fuck you we're not doing any of these look yeah this goes back to the well like i.
|
Sam:
[38:16]
| Said on the billion they may they may find like one little thing to pull out of it to give them some like way to claim.
|
Ivan:
[38:22]
| Victory without actually having done this goes back to the reagan administration and david stockman and how he wrote that book the triumph of politics david stockman is the chief of the office of management and budget back then they went in with this plan where they said that they were going to, you know, cut the taxes, the Laffer curve, we're going to, you know, blah, blah, blah, with all trickle down. And the one thing is they needed to do also all these cuts in spending. And when it came to cutting the spending, they did, you know, they did all the tax cuts first. Then they went, oh, let's cut the spending. And what happened? Nothing. Nothing. Not one fucking dime got really cut. Yeah, some bullshit here and there, whatever, whatnot.
|
Sam:
[39:09]
| But at most, you will get things held to current level. You will not have actual cuts.
|
Ivan:
[39:15]
| Exactly.
|
Sam:
[39:16]
| Like you will have a reduction in the planned increase.
|
Ivan:
[39:19]
| Yeah. I mean, but the deficit exploded and, you know, we've, you know, yeah. And that was, that was the end of it. You know, there was no, no political will anywhere to go and like all these programs that they have identified that they want to cut. So no, not, I think, will they find stuff that's over a billion dollars? Maybe, probably.
|
Sam:
[39:43]
| Will they do any.
|
Ivan:
[39:44]
| Will they cut any program like the ones they've identified, which is I mean, if I'd shit like, hey, let's cut VA health. Hey, let's cut. I mean, it's like, look, dude, it's no, not out.
|
Sam:
[39:57]
| I will say further. I fully believe they will find something over a billion dollars that they managed to cut. But I will say it will be compensate compensated for by increases.
|
Ivan:
[40:11]
| Exactly.
|
Sam:
[40:12]
| You know, like they will find scapegoat programs that Republicans don't like. And they will get rid of them. But then, like, simultaneously, they'll do something like increased defense funding or, oh, I know, increased funding for SpaceX. You know?
|
Ivan:
[40:30]
| That's, you know.
|
Sam:
[40:32]
| You know, whatever.
|
Ivan:
[40:34]
| All I'm saying is what I've got, Laura Loomer is my ally. What the fuck is this plan to come to?
|
Sam:
[40:40]
| Okay. Ten seconds. What happened with Laura Loomer? Say it.
|
Ivan:
[40:44]
| She basically said what she just said, that all this Doge thing is, hey, I've just figured out that these guys, all they're doing is want to cut money from other stuff just to line their pockets with it. That's what Elon's doing.
|
Sam:
[40:58]
| Yes. But I think your overall prediction, though, that, you know, yeah, tax cuts. Yes. Spending cuts. No. That's the rough summary.
|
Ivan:
[41:09]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[41:09]
| Yeah. Okay. Will also from Bruce, will there be any SCOTUS openings? I'll say yes. Absolutely.
|
Ivan:
[41:17]
| Fuck me.
|
Sam:
[41:18]
| That probably. I mean, this year.
|
Ivan:
[41:22]
| But this. No, but this year.
|
Sam:
[41:23]
| This year, this year, this year, everybody hit the reporting. has said that both thomas and alito are just waiting for a republican to retire ah okay and so i definitely they i could see them spacing those out so i won't say if we'll get one or two but i'll say at least one at least one and you you could always get surprises of more but i think you'll you'll get at least one in 2025 okay and what's your prediction you think.
|
Ivan:
[41:58]
| I think not this year.
|
Sam:
[42:00]
| They'll figure they have four years. They can wait. And Thomas, for instance, he's got all the money coming in. He's got all that stuff.
|
Ivan:
[42:08]
| He likes this job.
|
Sam:
[42:09]
| Why stop that before he has to?
|
Ivan:
[42:12]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[42:12]
| That's what I'll say. From what I've heard the reporting of, he doesn't actually particularly like the job. He does like the cash coming in. You know, the cash and perks. So maybe Alito will be the one to go. I don't know. But also, you could very well be right that they decide to wait because they've got four years now. They can retire. They can hang on for another couple of years and then go. I think those two are a definite sometime during this administration, but I'm still going to predict at least one this year. Okay. Okay. Bruce wants to know the size of the 2025 budget deficit. We usually put that in economy, but he put it.
|
Ivan:
[43:00]
| I don't.
|
Sam:
[43:01]
| What is it now?
|
Ivan:
[43:02]
| Fuck. I don't.
|
Sam:
[43:03]
| I will. I will just say it will be up. It will be.
|
Ivan:
[43:06]
| The deficit will go up.
|
Sam:
[43:07]
| It will go up.
|
Ivan:
[43:08]
| Whatever it is, it's going to go up.
|
Sam:
[43:11]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[43:11]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[43:12]
| Yeah. I won't give a number, but it will go up. I mean, if they pass the damn tax cuts, of course it will.
|
Ivan:
[43:18]
| Yes. Yes.
|
Sam:
[43:19]
| Like, well, if they pass an extension at current levels, then that ostensibly is flat over right now. But they'll probably add some stuff to it. And like we said, they're not going to do cuts. Some other stuff will increase, blah, blah, blah. It will be up. The deficit will be up. Because, you know, as usual, we have the scenario where deficits go down with Democratic presidents and go up with Republican presidents. I mean, that pattern is held for most of our lives, Yvonne. I don't see any reason why that's going to change.
|
Ivan:
[43:51]
| Not going to change.
|
Sam:
[43:52]
| Yeah. Okay. Next up for me, will the debt limit be increased? Yes.
|
Ivan:
[43:59]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[43:59]
| They made that agreement right now. I don't think that's going to change. It will, as usual, happen. I shouldn't make extra predictions, but as usual, it will happen with Democrats plus a few Republicans. Republicans will hate it. There'll be that core group of Republicans who hate it and vote against it, but it will happen. Will there be a government shutdown?
|
Ivan:
[44:21]
| Yes oh for sure i think we're we're gonna get one the first time this money runs out oh yeah uh well i think that.
|
Sam:
[44:31]
| I think they'll avoid it again.
|
Ivan:
[44:33]
| I'll be brief but we'll have a shutdown these guys listen like they already you already had to listen you already had to lie to them like through the teeth to get this this resolution well.
|
Sam:
[44:43]
| Like the one that happened this time like.
|
Ivan:
[44:45]
| Yeah did.
|
Sam:
[44:46]
| It count because they technically missed the deadline biden biden.
|
Ivan:
[44:51]
| Like signed that bill into law like 12 hours after yeah yeah yeah it didn't count nobody's paychecks got cut nobody it wasn't happened over a weekend the dead dead no no.
|
Sam:
[45:00]
| No okay but you you think there will be one.
|
Ivan:
[45:03]
| Oh yeah i'm.
|
Sam:
[45:04]
| Gonna i'm gonna say no they'll avoid it again.
|
Ivan:
[45:06]
| Yeah i think okay sure also.
|
Sam:
[45:09]
| For me will Will there be a significant state versus federal confrontation, like when the states resisted integration in the South, over Trump trying to impose policies on the states?
|
Ivan:
[45:22]
| Wait. Huh?
|
Sam:
[45:24]
| Okay. During the civil rights era, there were national federal policies on integration and the like.
|
Ivan:
[45:30]
| Yeah?
|
Sam:
[45:30]
| And various states resisted those and the feds were brought in to enforce it. Will that kind of thing happen in the first year of the Trump administration where at the federal level they're trying to enforce immigration policy or abortion policy or anything like that where individual states resist that and there ends up being a confrontation between federal and state authorities?
|
Ivan:
[45:57]
| I think it's going to just state at the legal, at the courts level. It's not like they're going to march in troops to enforce.
|
Sam:
[46:04]
| Like they did in the 60s. Cause that did happen in the second.
|
Ivan:
[46:07]
| Yeah. That did not go over well.
|
Sam:
[46:10]
| Well, I mean, yeah, the feds ended up imposing their will against the states in that case, which in that particular case, I approve. I imagine I would disagree with Trump trying to do the same if some state would resist.
|
Ivan:
[46:25]
| But it was very, you know.
|
Sam:
[46:27]
| It depends on the thing.
|
Ivan:
[46:29]
| Yeah, it was, you know, it overall that although that was done, it was problematic.
|
Sam:
[46:39]
| Okay but you're saying that won't happen now i'm gonna say it will and at least one place there will be a situation where you know state authorities are actively saying no to something trump wants and trump's going to do something you know nationalize the national guard or or Or instruct, you know, the FBI to do something, you know, I don't know, like there'd be some sort of conflict of that sort that's outside of just the courts.
|
Ivan:
[47:12]
| I keep thinking in my head, just like troops, like all of a sudden, like, you know, or, you know, making something happen. I just don't think that's going to happen.
|
Sam:
[47:20]
| Okay. Next up, will the number of undocumented migrants entering the United States go up or down? Also for me.
|
Ivan:
[47:30]
| I think a number of listen during the Trump administration they had a surge of border crossings you know this is the whole thing so he will say that he will get the border under control but and are we talking.
|
Sam:
[47:44]
| Not or gross we should specify.
|
Ivan:
[47:47]
| I'm talking gross number of crossings.
|
Sam:
[47:50]
| Okay. Yes.
|
Ivan:
[47:51]
| Yeah. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[47:52]
| You think it's going to go up?
|
Ivan:
[47:54]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[47:55]
| An actual number of estimated crossings, not number caught.
|
Ivan:
[48:00]
| Right. Correct. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[48:02]
| Do we have good numbers on that?
|
Ivan:
[48:04]
| There are. I mean, let me.
|
Sam:
[48:06]
| There's good numbers on caught. I know, but I'm going to say it will go down because Trump will. You're right. it went up when he was being exceptionally harsh like four years ago but i think in the end, that that there's more to do with other like the situations in the home countries and stuff well yes.
|
Ivan:
[48:32]
| And but but i i think that well that's the problem okay that we've had you know this is the global population the global situation is getting better.
|
Sam:
[48:45]
| Right it's not no you know are you going to change my mind no i'll stick with it'll go down it'll go down but not by much how about total immigration including legal immigration to the u.s.
|
Ivan:
[48:59]
| Up or down i'm.
|
Sam:
[49:01]
| Going to say down.
|
Ivan:
[49:02]
| Yeah because there are a lot of people who find.
|
Sam:
[49:05]
| Coming here less attractive.
|
Ivan:
[49:07]
| Yeah probably go down you see the thing is my problem is that you've got the one data of course that i i found is the number of encounters by u.s border patrols which by the way that doesn't really is not the same no it's not the same at all no at all it means that they're they're being far more effective at like intercepting people it's not this is uh uh so i i don't uh, You know, you know, I have to see, I'm going to have to find to see if we've got good data.
|
Sam:
[49:41]
| How about deportations? Will deportations actually go up? Like, like Donald Trump, one of his main pillars is I'm going to deport like millions and millions of people, mass deportations. Like, will deportations actually go up 2025 versus 2024?
|
Ivan:
[49:59]
| I don't think so because they've already been ramped up like crazy. This is the problem. understand they're already i mean i don't i don't understand how physically we increase that but it's already at the number of encounters are record numbers we've had record numbers of deportations and the reality is that they went down under the first trump administration versus the obama administration so i'm not even like i i don't i don't i don't know man i i is i'm.
|
Sam:
[50:29]
| Gonna I'm going to say, yes, it will go up. He will figure out a way to make it go up. And even, and separate prediction aside from the numbers, there will be show deeper deportations.
|
Ivan:
[50:41]
| Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
|
Sam:
[50:42]
| That, that will, he will make a point of having really highly visible deportations where they're going in and doing raids and kicking people out of the country and stuff like that to make it look like there's a big effort regardless of the numbers and to make it seem extremely hostile. But I think the number actually will go up. I think this was such a central plank they'll figure out a way to make it happen. Any more thoughts on this one? If not, it's time to take a break.
|
Ivan:
[51:14]
| Encounters, nationwide encounters, southwest land border encounters, title eight. That's the problem. I mean the only real information we have are encounters.
|
Sam:
[51:23]
| Mm-hmm.
|
Ivan:
[51:24]
| And they went way up. Under Biden from the Trump administration.
|
Sam:
[51:31]
| Yeah, I'm not even going to go there. The impression is so counter than that, like that was left during the campaign, right? They successfully managed to paint Biden as like a pansy on the border, but he was deporting way more people than Trump did.
|
Ivan:
[51:48]
| Exactly. So it's, I'm like, okay. Anyway.
|
Sam:
[51:56]
| Okay.
|
Ivan:
[51:56]
| By the way, have you heard from, ever since Trump won, any of those governors complaining about the border crisis?
|
Sam:
[52:04]
| Nah, I haven't heard anything lately. No.
|
Ivan:
[52:06]
| Me neither. It's amazing.
|
Sam:
[52:08]
| Amazing that. Yeah. Okay, let's take a break, and we will come back for international. I normally randomize the breaks, but I'm just going to go in order from oldest to newest here. and uh yeah because it's easier for me and it doesn't bring up a chance of the ones i have to prepare for here we go and yvonne's dying already uh this this segment is almost always by far our longest segment like twice three times as long as anything else and we're we generally zoom through each segment is usually shorter than the one before so anyway here we go uh first break ray lynch here we go, No.
|
Break:
[52:55]
| No, it's not the beginning of the show again. We're just taking a little time to credit the artist responsible for the music we use at the beginning and end of the show. What you are listening to right now is The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch.
|
Break:
[53:12]
| The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch.
|
Break:
[54:39]
| You can check out Ray Lynch or buy his music at RayLynch.com, iTunes, Amazon, or anywhere you usually find music.
|
Sam:
[54:50]
| Okay, we're back and it's time for international starting with Europe. First question is from Bruce. Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
|
Ivan:
[55:01]
| No.
|
Sam:
[55:01]
| No.
|
Ivan:
[55:02]
| In this year, no.
|
Sam:
[55:04]
| In 2025. How do you think it's going to play out?
|
Ivan:
[55:07]
| I think it might be a ceasefire later, but I just don't, no, no, I just don't think there will be a ceasefire this year.
|
Sam:
[55:15]
| This year, this year, well, 2025.
|
Ivan:
[55:18]
| Yeah. I mean, 2025. Yeah. Yeah. I just don't think it's 25, 2026, maybe, but I just don't, don't think 2025.
|
Sam:
[55:25]
| But Yvonne, Donald Trump said he would do it in 24 hours.
|
Ivan:
[55:28]
| Well, apparently Putin already told him no.
|
Sam:
[55:32]
| So, yeah, but I think I'm going to say yes, but not because of like, I think it's just going to be a situation where you almost have to, like with the lack of support from the Trump side, Ukraine is going to just be in a very bad spot and is going to have to like look for something where, and we're not talking about a permanent peace deal. We're just talking about a ceasefire where some sort of thing where they freeze the line back off.
|
Ivan:
[56:06]
| I mean, look, we're not.
|
Sam:
[56:07]
| Yeah. So you're saying you're saying that if if if there's weakness on the Ukraine side, the Russians are just going to push forward. They're not going to agree to a pause because like you could you could imagine even like the reason Ukraine says they don't want to cease fire is because the Russians will just take the opportunity to refresh their forces, rearm, whatever. You don't think the Russians would want a pause just for those purposes and then resume a few months later.
|
Ivan:
[56:36]
| Yeah, no, they don't want to do that. You know... There is a lot of like material and munitions and other things that I have heard are being also sourced from other places right now. There's also a whole bunch of different like.
|
Sam:
[56:53]
| Well, the whole Russian war effort is at this point, almost a proxy for North Korea and Iran.
|
Ivan:
[56:59]
| Well, exactly. So that's why I'm like, I don't know, man. I just don't think that I don't, I think there'll be a lot of posturing and negotiating this year. But I just don't think that it's going to happen that quickly in 2025, you know, especially because Putin just got his ass handed to him in Syria.
|
Sam:
[57:18]
| Yes.
|
Ivan:
[57:19]
| And I don't think that from his perspective, he would see a ceasefire right now as beneficial because of the embarrassment of which has happened in Syria.
|
Sam:
[57:33]
| I'm going to say yes to a ceasefire, but I don't think it will last. Like there may be a ceasefire for a short amount of time, but not through, not necessarily through the end of the year.
|
Ivan:
[57:49]
| So you think there's going to be like some kind of short ceasefire?
|
Sam:
[57:52]
| Yeah. Like I think there's going to be some sort of thing where.
|
Ivan:
[57:56]
| Well, let's be clear. I don't want to drag it out. You think, yes, ceasefire, at least one, even brief, I say no way.
|
Sam:
[58:06]
| Okay, and then Bruce's next question is, will there be a signed peace deal in Ukraine? And I'm going to say no.
|
Ivan:
[58:10]
| Oh, fuck, no. Jesus Christ. I mean, you know, there's been wars that have had 30, we don't have a peace deal from the Korean War yet, for God's sakes. No, we don't. That's still technically a war.
|
Sam:
[58:22]
| And remember, World War II ended in 1989, or was it 93? It might have even been passed. It was like 93 or so. It was with German unification was when their peace treaty with the U.S. was actually signed for World War II.
|
Ivan:
[58:36]
| Right. So, yeah. So, you know, the fuck are we talking about? Hell no.
|
Sam:
[58:41]
| Yeah. No signed peace deal, but I think there will be at least one ceasefire. And I think it's going to primarily be driven by the fact that Ukraine is going to be really struggling without the same levels of active support that Biden has been giving. what.
|
Ivan:
[58:58]
| I what i just think.
|
Sam:
[58:59]
| Is although trump has said trump in an interview last week or two weeks ago something said that he would be in favor of with a ceasefire actually continuing to arm ukraine and even potentially putting nato forces in ukraine as long as the is part of a deal that said you know whatever uh.
|
Ivan:
[59:24]
| But how do I explain to you?
|
Sam:
[59:26]
| This might be one of those Nixon to China things where like Trump can pull something off that Biden was never able to.
|
Ivan:
[59:33]
| Maybe. But the thing is that, look, he's like a weather vane. I mean, what the hell? I mean, come on. I don't know. Tomorrow the wind's going to be going the other way. And he's going to say that we're, you know, fucking we're turning Ukraine over to Russia.
|
Sam:
[59:49]
| We'll bomb Ukraine ourselves.
|
Ivan:
[59:51]
| Yes. That would be out of the realm of possibility of something that he would say one day. Yes.
|
Sam:
[59:58]
| So anyway, summary, you're saying no ceasefire, no peace deal. I'm saying yes, ceasefire, no peace deal. And the ceasefire may be temporary. And the may be temporary. That part's not a prediction, but yes. Okay. Well, then Ed asks the other part of it, sort of the complete opposite direction. Will Ukraine be defeated and completely annexed into Russia? I don't think that's happening either.
|
Ivan:
[1:00:21]
| Look i think all i'm saying is that for all of russia's might and how much they put into syria and how quickly that folded and even afghanistan were to try the same thing and they folded there too ukraine is actually stronger than either of those they don't have the war with all for that they have they have the they have the thing to inflict damage that they do but you know the the reality.
|
Sam:
[1:00:46]
| Of the situation in ukraine is all of the major action in terms of land-changing hands happened either when they took Crimea years ago, or in the first few months of the full invasion. And that since then, once Ukraine repelled that initial assault, the front lines have been really static for a long time. In the last year, Russia has gained some ground. Like it's been a long time since Ukraine gained ground, not aside from their little thing in Kursk, but it's, it's been tiny amounts of land for the most part, things have been pretty stagnant for over a year now.
|
Ivan:
[1:01:35]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:01:36]
| Here's an additional one. Will Ukraine still have a presence in Kursk at the end of the year? Like actually inside Russia? I'm going to say no.
|
Ivan:
[1:01:46]
| Ah, I get that right. I think so. And the cursor region F. I hate these questions. I'll go with yes.
|
Sam:
[1:01:57]
| Okay. I will also add, will the percentage of Ukraine occupied by Russia go up or down in 2025? And through November, because that's as far as we'll know, probably. I will say Russia, the Russian percentage will increase.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:14]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:02:15]
| You agree?
|
Ivan:
[1:02:16]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:02:17]
| Okay. Moving on from Ukraine, Bruce asks, will there be a coup in any European country? No, I'll agree. Through non-coup means, this one's from me, will right-wing parties take power in any more European countries in 2025? It looks like Germany's government just collapsed. France's government has been having issues. They're both likely to have that resolved in one way or another this year. There may be other countries. i know that there were some.
|
Ivan:
[1:02:48]
| I'm gonna say no and i'm gonna tell you why because i do think that trump re-elected also swings the pendulum of opinion on this like the other way it's one of these like you know you get these pendulum swings of this shit i think we've had the pendulum swing like way like that way like right now and i think it's gonna start coming back to a certain extent how.
|
Sam:
[1:03:07]
| About any eastern european like near.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:09]
| Russia yeah yeah yeah they actually they've tried that And it's been, you know, it's been met with like complete opposite. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:03:18]
| I will say no. Oh, well, we're on right wing parties taking power now, not coup.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:25]
| Yeah. Right wing parties taking power. So I'm saying that even like there's been certain countries like near the Ukraine.
|
Sam:
[1:03:32]
| Wait, wait, wait. Let me ask. Do we just count? Do the conservative parties count or do we have to have like the neo-Nazis? Like if the more conservative parties take over in Germany and France, does that count?
|
Ivan:
[1:03:47]
| Well, it's like right wing.
|
Sam:
[1:03:48]
| Yeah. So I was thinking Germany and France could both go right.
|
Ivan:
[1:03:55]
| Well, I mean, I'm already considering that they have gone already for the right. The question is whether you think that they're going to install a right government.
|
Sam:
[1:04:05]
| The reality is that they have.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:06]
| No, but the reality is that installing, they've moved right. Right.
|
Sam:
[1:04:10]
| But the parliament of both countries are more, more to the right than they were. But the actual composition is like the actual leaders are not right.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:19]
| Exactly. Because they only have about 30 percent. So it's one of those things where, yeah, they have increased percentages.
|
Sam:
[1:04:27]
| Will a conservative coalition take over for more liberal coalitions? I'm going to say yes, in both France and Germany.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:35]
| Yeah, sure. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:04:38]
| Okay. But we're both saying, yes, it may be a more conservative government.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:43]
| It's not a neo-Nazi.
|
Sam:
[1:04:44]
| But it's not going to be like Le Pen is the next president of France or something.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:49]
| No, no, no.
|
Sam:
[1:04:50]
| Or the AFD or whatever is not going to rule Germany.
|
Ivan:
[1:04:54]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[1:04:54]
| Okay. And my next question was, if so, which? I said France and Germany.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:00]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:05:01]
| Okay. Will Russia invade any more countries?
|
Ivan:
[1:05:05]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:05:06]
| No, I'm going to say no as well. They've been really battered by this one. They would need to sort of, I feel like they're not going to invade more until this one is resolved. And I don't think this one's going to be resolved in 2025.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:21]
| Yeah, exactly.
|
Sam:
[1:05:23]
| Okay. Middle East. Will any Russian troops still be president? President. Will any Russian troops still be present in Syria at the end of the year? They've got some naval bases right now.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:36]
| Yeah, I know.
|
Sam:
[1:05:37]
| And some other presidents.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:39]
| I'm thinking that they're going to wind them kicking them out.
|
Sam:
[1:05:42]
| Yeah, I think they're out.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:44]
| Yeah, they're out. I mean, the people who have taken over have definitely want them out. They don't want them there.
|
Sam:
[1:05:51]
| How about U.S. troops? We've got like 900 there right now.
|
Ivan:
[1:05:55]
| We keep having 900 of them. They've never totally left. Well, you're talking about the Middle East. But wait, is it, you're talking Syria specifically or Middle East?
|
Sam:
[1:06:05]
| Syria specifically. Syria specifically. These two questions are both from Bruce, by the way.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:11]
| I got to say there's going to be some troops there. Like, you know, I mean, right now we're talking about 900.
|
Sam:
[1:06:18]
| So I don't think the U.S. is leaving. This is, you know.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:21]
| If you remember. We're going to have a non-zero number.
|
Sam:
[1:06:24]
| This particular set of troops was there all the way back to the Trump administration. They're guarding oil fields or something.
|
Ivan:
[1:06:31]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:06:31]
| I forget the details, but something like that. And Trump was convinced to put him there in the first place. I don't think he's going to change his mind. That part of Syria is not having a lot. I mean, the American troops there have not been under a lot of attack. I don't think there's been nothing, but it's not been a major source of U.S. casualties or anything. And so I think the U.S. troops are saying, and I'm going to go back on Russia. I think they're going to want the Russians out, but aren't actually going to be able to force them out. So I think there will be Russian troops still in Syria at the time.
|
Sam:
[1:07:07]
| And I'm going to go out of order on my list a little bit just to finish up the Syria stuff. Ed wants to know, will a new dictatorship or equivalent take over in Syria? And he makes a prediction that he thinks yes, by August 2025. Yeah. Let me give my answer. I think the government that takes over in Damascus will not be, you know, a fun, friendly democracy with liberal values. It's going, it's not going to be tolerant, multicultural, blah, blah, blah. And it will, it will have a regime that I don't know if it'll be a dictatorship per se, but it will not be a friendly regime. And more so, it's also not going to control all of Syria. Like, this is not the end of the Syrian civil war. This is just Assad's gone. There are still, like, multiple factions fighting over Syria. Like, there's- All right.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:07]
| So it's okay. Tangent. Okay.
|
Sam:
[1:08:09]
| Tangent. Yes.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:10]
| Okay. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:08:12]
| Will there be a new dictator?
|
Ivan:
[1:08:13]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:08:14]
| Yes. New dictatorship in Syria. And I guess my, it depends what you call dictatorship, but it won't be- It's not going to be a democratically elected government. Yes. Yes. Agreed. Okay. From Bruce now and leaving Syria, will Netanyahu still be PM of Israel?
|
Ivan:
[1:08:31]
| Fuck.
|
Sam:
[1:08:32]
| Because he's got that trial going on right now. The war is still going on. He's got like.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:40]
| You know what? I'm going to go out and say no.
|
Sam:
[1:08:43]
| I'll say no as well. Like even the people who are fully supportive of everything he's done still don't really like him right now.
|
Ivan:
[1:08:54]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[1:08:54]
| So I figure if they have an opportunity to dump him, they will. Whether or not his replacement will be more or less Netanyahu-ish, I don't know. But I think he'll be gone. We'll see. Bruce also asks, will there be a ceasefire in Gaza? Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:09:13]
| I'm going to say yes. This year, I think 2025 is finally going to happen because the one, not only is Netanyahu getting pressured on this to get a ceasefire, he's getting a lot of pressure. But by the way, Hamas right now, with all the shit that's going on, they're getting heavily pressured also as well about this because people are now actually also in Gaza are getting pissed at Hamas as well, not just Israel, about what the fuck is going on.
|
Sam:
[1:09:45]
| I'll say there will be a ceasefire, but it'll be basically on Israel's terms. Israel has basically said, yeah, you'll get a ceasefire when you're all dead. Once we have killed all of Hamas and made them completely ineffectual and unable to take control again, then we'll stop. And I think that's what the situation is going to be. I think Israel will feel, first of all, they're practically there already. They have done a lot of damage. And at a certain point, they'll be able to say, okay, we've done enough. We can stop. And I think that's what's going to happen. It's not going to be like Israel and Hamas making some deal and the hostages and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's basically going to say, it's going to be Israel saying, okay, we've beaten you enough now. We can pause. And it will be a ceasefire. It will not be a peace agreement. Okay, next up, also from Bruce, will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza? Hell no. No, no way.
|
Ivan:
[1:10:52]
| Wait, say that again.
|
Sam:
[1:10:53]
| Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza?
|
Ivan:
[1:10:56]
| Oh, 2025 now.
|
Sam:
[1:10:58]
| Yeah, no way. No way. There is going to be a permanent IDF position there. There is lots of pressure to have Israel sort of permanently take over northern Gaza. You know, build Jared Kushner's condos, you know, those kinds of things. They are, no, they're not leaving. They're not leaving. And even if there's a ceasefire, they're not leaving. They feel like the fact that they left whatever it was a decade and a half ago was a mistake, and they're not going to do it again. I think the best scenario Gaza has in their future right now is something like the West Bank has now, which is by no means good for the Palestinians and the West Bank. But I guess it's better than being bombed every day.
|
Ivan:
[1:11:48]
| That only sounds good. But that's always, you know, hey, you know, that should be put on T-shirts, you know, if you go on vacation. Better here than being bombed every day. Sounds like a good slogan for a T-shirt.
|
Sam:
[1:12:00]
| And to be clear, it's not good in the West Bank. And there are Palestinians dying every day in the West Bank because of Israeli actions. But it's better than what's going on in Gaza. And I think that's the scenario you have is West Bank will be like Gaza is today. Lots of Israeli presence. Lots of Israeli control. but not quite as active a conflict. Okay.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:23]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:12:25]
| Next, for me, will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel? Not in 2025, I don't think.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:30]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:12:30]
| They were on the verge of it before this Gaza thing, but I think it'll happen eventually, but I don't think it's going to happen in 2025. Also me, will the war in Yemen still be continuing?
|
Ivan:
[1:12:45]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:12:46]
| Agreed, yes. also also me will any western countries normalize relationships with iran.
|
Ivan:
[1:12:54]
| No, no, no, not, not when the political situation is going on right now. Now.
|
Sam:
[1:12:59]
| I mean, obviously there are countries that do have normal relationship with Iran already, but I don't think any Western countries are going to do that. Will a more widespread multi-country conflict breakout in the Middle East?
|
Ivan:
[1:13:12]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:13:13]
| I'm going to say no as well. I think the maximum point of danger for that passed a few months ago when Israel was in Lebanon and all that kind of stuff. It could have widened significantly. But with Iran making a couple attacks on Israel that were completely ineffectual and getting humiliated by that, and Israel kicking butt in Lebanon and Syria collapsing, I think, yeah, no, no. Okay. Asia from Bruce, will Trump reopen talks with North Korea?
|
Ivan:
[1:13:48]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:13:50]
| I'm going to say no, not because he does. I think he loves the guy. He does love the guy, but I think it's just not top of mind right now. Like North Carolina, not North Carolina. That's a little bit different. Yes. Trump will reopen talks with North Carolina. No, I don't think he's going to reopen it. And again, not because he wouldn't want to, but because he's going to go where the attention was. And if you remember the last time he did that in North Korea, North Korea was causing trouble all the time.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:26]
| But what do you think? And they've been quiet for a while. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You think he's going to start setting off things just because Trump is back? Yes!
|
Sam:
[1:14:37]
| Okay. I'm going to say yes.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:39]
| I'm going to say yes. I'll say no. I'll go yes.
|
Sam:
[1:14:42]
| Okay. Next up. this is from ed will the u.s break ground on an asml or equivalent high-tech semiconductor factory and i will once again admit i don't know what that is what is that yvonne do you know.
|
Ivan:
[1:14:56]
| I don't know.
|
Sam:
[1:14:57]
| Let me look uh i don't.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:00]
| Know i don't.
|
Sam:
[1:15:01]
| Know i don't.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:02]
| Know anything anymore.
|
Sam:
[1:15:04]
| Asml is a dutch company and supplier oh yeah yeah they're.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:09]
| The people that supply the super advanced stuff that they've been banned from selling to China right now.
|
Sam:
[1:15:14]
| Okay. Will the U.S. do that domestically?
|
Ivan:
[1:15:19]
| Now, it's just, you know, it takes a long time.
|
Sam:
[1:15:22]
| No, I don't know anything about this. So I'll agree with you. No. From me, will the U.S. relationship with China improve or get worse under Trump? It's not great right now.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:33]
| But I think for some reason it might improve. I don't know why all of a sudden she and Trump seem more willing to talk than in the past. so i'm gonna say yes.
|
Sam:
[1:15:50]
| He and trump invited him to the inauguration i think he said no but yeah but.
|
Ivan:
[1:15:54]
| He i mean but yeah he went that far yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:15:56]
| Well and yeah he'll he'll have him over for mar-a-lago they'll make some agreements and there you go and um and we'll all know.
|
Ivan:
[1:16:05]
| Everything because all the phones will be intercepted, i'll do it on his you know.
|
Sam:
[1:16:12]
| I i'm gonna say i'm gonna say it's gonna be a mixed bag i think it's gonna be hard to say better or worse like some things will get better like i think trump's gonna be like an asshole on trade issues but maybe on other issues will be a little bit more flexible I think Trump will be less willing to confront China on some defense issues, but will be a hardliner on trade stuff. And so I'm going to say mixed bag. Is that a valid answer or do I need to say up or down?
|
Ivan:
[1:16:49]
| That's a valid answer.
|
Sam:
[1:16:51]
| Okay, then moving on. I think this is kind of implied by your answer, Yvonne, and probably by mine too. Will China invade Taiwan in 2021?
|
Ivan:
[1:17:00]
| No, no.
|
Sam:
[1:17:01]
| I'll agree, no. They may eventually, but I don't think it's yet.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:05]
| I don't really think... No.
|
Sam:
[1:17:10]
| I think they looked at Ukraine and said no.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:13]
| No, no.
|
Sam:
[1:17:14]
| Okay. I had an if so, what would happen, but we both agree no, so I'm not going to ask that. Okay. Americas. This is from Bruce, and I'm going to say nothing on this one because I have no idea, but you and Bruce have been talking about this. So will Argentina's economy grow under, how do you say his name? Mila's reforms?
|
Ivan:
[1:17:34]
| Mila.
|
Sam:
[1:17:35]
| Mila. Mila. So I guess GDP. Argentina GDP up or down in 2025, I guess, is the way to make this specific.
|
Ivan:
[1:17:45]
| That's a great question for next year. They are going to grow because they just started growing. The thing is that one of the things is that the economy really collapsed this year a lot.
|
Sam:
[1:18:02]
| So you're down so much you almost have to go up.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:05]
| Yeah, that's basically where it's at right now. Yes. so.
|
Sam:
[1:18:09]
| Up in 2025.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:10]
| Up in 2025 yes.
|
Sam:
[1:18:11]
| Will it get back up to levels from before this guy took over.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:18]
| No no no it will it will recover a little bit but no not not in 2025 not with the forecast i've seen from everybody i've talked to now okay.
|
Sam:
[1:18:27]
| Next up from ed will the u.s will the u.s annex panama or at least the canal.
|
Ivan:
[1:18:35]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:18:37]
| I will agree. No. But I, what I will say though is all of this talk from Trump is not about really taking back control of the canal, but he will try to use this to pressure Panama to give some sort of deal to make things cheaper or something. He will try to get, he will try to extract something of value for this discussion and maybe he'll get something, but no, we're not taking over the damn canal. Okay. From me, will any government in North or South America have a non peaceful change of government?
|
Ivan:
[1:19:13]
| Any government in North and South America. Well, we have one of those happened this year where we have, well, we had the Syria thing. Let's see. How do we go through.
|
Sam:
[1:19:25]
| My Syria is not in North or South America.
|
Ivan:
[1:19:27]
| No, no, no, no, no, no. I know. I know what I'm like trying to think this year. Yeah. It was like, ah, you mean by cool?
|
Sam:
[1:19:38]
| Well, I said non-peaceful. That generally implies coup, although I suppose invasion would also count, or you can figure out other non-violent.
|
Ivan:
[1:19:48]
| I'm going to say no, because it's like either somebody's going to resign or it's impeachment or something or whatever. But no, no, not those ways.
|
Sam:
[1:19:57]
| Because I said non-peaceful, so it implies some sort of violent change of power.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:01]
| So no, no, no, no.
|
Sam:
[1:20:03]
| Okay. I will agree. No. Also for me, just going through these places that Trump's been talking about, will Canada become the 51st state or otherwise join the U.S.?
|
Ivan:
[1:20:18]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:20:19]
| No. Obviously no. And frankly, if there ever was that kind of merger, it would not be one state. It would be each province would probably become a state. But no, no. Which would also probably shift the balance of power in the Senate in the favor of Democrats, by the way, if it ever was to happen. But no, no, it's not going to happen. Will Trump invade Mexico? They've also been talking about doing that.
|
Ivan:
[1:20:45]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:20:46]
| Agreed. No. Will they invade Canada?
|
Ivan:
[1:20:50]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:20:51]
| You know, maybe we don't need to take over all of Canada, but you know, I don't know. Maybe we want Baffin Island.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:00]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:21:01]
| No, no. I agree.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:04]
| Greenland? No.
|
Sam:
[1:21:06]
| Well, that's next in the anywhere else category. Will we buy Greenland? John wants to know. No, we will not.
|
Ivan:
[1:21:11]
| No, we will not buy Greenland. Look, I did say, look.
|
Sam:
[1:21:16]
| The next question, will Trump trade Puerto Rico for Greenland?
|
Ivan:
[1:21:21]
| I hope yes, but I don't think we're going to get that deal. If I can get that deal, that deal would, listen, if I, all I'm hoping is look, if, if, if I was born there and I can get Danish citizenship, I am fucking down. I am down. Okay. Let's go to make, let's make the deal. I'm all for the deal.
|
Sam:
[1:21:45]
| Yeah, I agree. No, none of these are going to happen. And I, same thing as I said with Panama, all of these things are just bluster to try to open conversations where Trump wants to extract something. He doesn't actually want, he doesn't actually think any of these things are actually going to happen, but he wants to like be belligerent and be pushy in the hopes that it helps him extract something else. you know like all of this talk about canada being the 51st state isn't about canada being the 51st state it's to be an asshole to what's his name trudeau is it trudeau yeah and and and to try to get trudeau to feel bad in some way that will make him try to appease trump in some way that that that's that's what all of this is about it's not about actually thinking that he's actually going to take over any of these, whether it's purchasing or invasion or whatever. It's no. Okay. Global. Will there be any new overt country versus country wars between UN member states? So I'm excluding things like Somaliland and Ethiopia, where there's a war been going on from there, but Somaliland's not recognized fully or whatever. Or is it now? I don't know. But I'm making it UN specified states specifically. So we're not talking about separatist movements that you could debate.
|
Ivan:
[1:23:13]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:23:15]
| Yeah, I'm going to agree. No. And by the way, Somaliland is de facto unrecognized. So I was right there. I'll agree. No new overt country versus country wars of which Ukraine versus Russia is the one that's, you know, the big one right now. Okay. Any, will there be any, also for me, will there be any new civil wars that get enough news coverage that we talk about them on the show? I'm going to say no.
|
Ivan:
[1:23:41]
| No.
|
Sam:
[1:23:41]
| Because there may be new civil wars in some countries that don't get a lot of attention, but I don't think there'll be new civil wars anywhere that blow up massive enough and are important enough to U.S. interests that we end up talking about them. You know, there's civil wars all over the place all the time. I guess less than there were many years ago, but no. Okay. And that's the end of the next segment. See, it was about half the length of the last one. If each one is half the length of the one before, then does the arrow eventually get to the target? I mean, that's an old philosophical thing. Okay, we'll take the next break, and we will be right back with Economy. Back after this.
|
Break:
[1:24:29]
| You're listening to this podcast. Do you like it? No! Do you want to support the show? No! Well, after you have subscribed to the show, followed us on Facebook, and told all your friends they should be listening to, what else can you do? I won't subscribe! You can help fund our Patreon at patreon.com slash curmudgeonscorner. Patreon is a way you can throw us a few bucks a month to help out with the expenses of the show. You know, web hosting, equipment, a little bit of advertising to promote the show, and maybe every once in a while some much-needed sedatives for Yvonne. At different contribution levels, you can get a mention on the show, our Curmudgeon's Corner postcard, or even a Curmudgeon's Corner mug. Fun stuff. Not fun. In any case, the contributions help tell us that you enjoy and appreciate the show. I really, really hate Commodity's Corner! Are we worth a buck a month? No! Five bucks a month? No! Or if you are nuts about us, maybe even.
|
Break:
[1:25:47]
| Anywhere near a billion dollars. If we're worth anything to you at all, send it our way at patreon.com slash curmudgeonscorner. Alex hates, really, really hates curmudgeonscorner. That's what we mean, isn't it? But I hate curmudgeonscorner. But I really do!
|
Sam:
[1:26:09]
| Okay, we are back. It is time for Economy. The first few are non-numeric. First from Bruce. will mergers ramp up under trump.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:17]
| Oh yes i i think that definitely a lot of companies are salivating at the prospect of having a trump presidency because they they they believe because there'll be less antitrust action yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:26:32]
| The the less anti-trust i have a specific question about antitrust later but also mergers like they've been getting lots of scrutiny and is this competitive is this not and blah blah blah and the the new administration clearly won't care.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:45]
| So like.
|
Sam:
[1:26:46]
| Yes i'll agree mergers up uh ed wants to know will we enter a recession by year's end.
|
Ivan:
[1:26:53]
| Oh i don't think there will be a recession in 2025 i think that a lot of the actions that this administration is going to try to do will be stimulative and so with company balance sheets and other things being pretty healthy whatever they're going to do is going to be very stimulative to the economy and there are other economies around the world right now that are looking towards like stimulus right now china being uh one very specific example that is trying to to to to do that and that would benefit the U S and the EU as well. So I, I don't, I think the conditions are, are, are positive for there not being a recession.
|
Sam:
[1:27:42]
| Are, are these things that will have short-term upward, but long-term negative consequences? Like maybe they'll trigger a recession in 2026 or 27.
|
Ivan:
[1:27:52]
| The things that, I mean.
|
Sam:
[1:27:53]
| We're not making predictions.
|
Ivan:
[1:27:54]
| Well, look, the thing is that any time that you get like a lot of deregulation, and less scrutiny of financial industry.
|
Sam:
[1:28:03]
| You get a short-term spike that eventually crashes.
|
Ivan:
[1:28:06]
| That may not guarantee, but that does create the openings for these kind of significant, like, issues that we've seen in decades past. Like we had the SNL crisis under the Reagan administration or, or like, you know, the banking crisis that we had from the HW administration and yet, you know, the lack of oversight of wall street leverage that we had because of reduced regulation. So you, this is the type of shit that really, you know, incentivizes that kind of shit.
|
Sam:
[1:28:39]
| So I won't hold you to any predictions past 2025, but basically you're saying we'll get a nice, healthy, positive economic spike for the first few years, which will crash just in time for the next Democratic president to clean up the mess.
|
Ivan:
[1:28:57]
| Basically, that's usually the way that these guys will operate.
|
Sam:
[1:29:01]
| Okay. Next up on antitrust, specifically, will the efforts that have already started and are in progress under Biden, like there are a number of lawsuits going on and things like that, will they all be dropped?
|
Ivan:
[1:29:16]
| I don't think all of them will be dropped because there is one thing. This administration on one side also has a little bit of a war with the tech people, and a lot of those actions are against tech companies. So they'll probably be very happy and letting the tech companies get their... get the Justice Department to keep, you know, being under their skin.
|
Sam:
[1:29:40]
| So your answer, because there are a bunch of, and I don't have an inventory of them, but there are a bunch of antitrust efforts from the DOJ that are in progress right now. Your prediction is some of them, the Trump administration will cancel and some of them they'll keep going?
|
Ivan:
[1:29:57]
| Yes, correct. They're not all going by the wayside. I think that the tech stuff, they're going to want to needle the tech companies, because they've been out of history of that. But I'll give you an example of one industry that has had terrible time of getting mergers to get approved, that I think that they are salivating. I know I've heard the executives already say they're salivating at the prospect of a Trump admin, the airlines. The airlines have been blocked on a whole bunch of mergers and a whole bunch of things and competitive reasons like Spirited JetBlue, JetBlue with American Airlines, just a whole bunch of them. They are like right now salivating at the prospect of being able to get these mergers to go through because they don't think the Trump administration is going to stop any of them.
|
Sam:
[1:30:44]
| Okay. Yeah. No, I will agree with you on the mixed result here and as for similar reasons, but basically fundamentally at the core level, just because Donald Trump is transactional on everything. He will make the decision on whether or not to release companies who are currently engaged in these battles with the DOJ based on what he personally can get out of it. And some of them, he will get things out of some of them, he will not. And that's how he'll make the calls. And so, So yes, mixed bag. Okay, next up, also for me, what will happen with all of Trump's tariff threats?
|
Ivan:
[1:31:23]
| Look, it'll be a lot of like what happened the first time around. These are all transactional things. And by the way, I've already heard, you know, one thing I already heard, all the China tariffs, Trump said what I heard, I can't remember if Trump said it, or I heard it say, oh, but, but Apple, Apple's going to get, they're going to be exempt. so once you start like what's that you know whoever he has in his favor or wants to be the champion he's going to, these tariffs will be like Swiss cheese it's.
|
Sam:
[1:32:02]
| The same transactional stuff it's like.
|
Ivan:
[1:32:04]
| Who is giving him what is he getting out of it there were a ton of exemptions that got through the last time and I remember that when I was I was working at Kodak, specifically the tariffs targeted a specific type of aluminum that that that kodak needed to import from china they couldn't really procure from anywhere else there was just no alternate sourcing and we didn't have the juice with the trump administration really to get anything like done and they never lifted that tariff i know that you know all of a sudden later that stupid deal came out with peter Navarro announced like that loan that made the stock like soar and crash and everybody went crazy. It's like the hell we were doing or whatever. But that was...
|
Ivan:
[1:32:50]
| You know what? The thing is that I looked at the way that was worked through. It wasn't with juice with the Trump administration. It's more the state of New York had helped and empire. There is this empire economic whatever development agency, blah, blah, blah. And all these people, they were the ones that really had the juice. But it wasn't because the company had juice with the Trump administration. If they did, they would. The first thing they want to lift that tariff and we didn't have the juice, but other companies did. And they got if you look at the exemption applications, if you were really, you know, in, you know, attached to the hip with with the with with Trump and MAGA, you got those. No problem. You got your exemptions. And I expect nothing different this time.
|
Sam:
[1:33:36]
| So all over the place on an individual thing by individual thing basis, not any, we won't actually get these global, like we're putting 20% tariff on the entire world.
|
Ivan:
[1:33:49]
| Let me put it this way. Headline right now on Bloomberg, Trump's tariff threats are setting off a global supply chain freak out.
|
Sam:
[1:33:57]
| Okay. Well, let me ask.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:00]
| Always words that you want to hear, you know.
|
Sam:
[1:34:04]
| Yeah. So I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll first of all agree. It's all going to be transactional. It's going to be tons of exemptions, all that stuff. I agree with you fully. Will, will enough happen with increased tariffs so that the average American consumer notices a difference on anything?
|
Ivan:
[1:34:21]
| No, no, no. Here's a note that you said notice. Yeah. Problem is that notice people.
|
Sam:
[1:34:30]
| Yes.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:30]
| Yeah. That's the problem.
|
Sam:
[1:34:33]
| Like, even if there's a price increase on something, they won't necessarily tie it back to the tariffs.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:38]
| They notice gas. They notice, like, their burgers. They notice, like, you know, I guess, and whatever the right-wing media, like, you know, tells them.
|
Sam:
[1:34:51]
| And Apple will get an exemption, so iPhones will cost the same.
|
Ivan:
[1:34:54]
| So iPhones will cost the same. Right. Oh, you know.
|
Sam:
[1:34:57]
| So, will there be any significant new manufacturing in the U.S. caused by tariffs elsewhere? Like, that's the whole theoretic point of these things, right?
|
Ivan:
[1:35:11]
| Look, there's already been a big supply chain reallocation that had begun in years past, coming from not just the tariffs, but the pandemic and the Inflation Reduction Act. I you know that that has been happening and so I don't really think that there is anything significant that the administration could do that will move a something you know that has any significant effect okay.
|
Sam:
[1:35:47]
| I'll just agree with you because I don't know enough to say anything else. Okay. That's it for the non-numeric stuff. Numeric ones, we have a bunch of requests. Now, in some years in the past, I have given specific ranges. I have not done any of that prep this year. I didn't last year either. Last year, I shifted to just up or down. Just up or down. So, Yvonne, on these, feel free to be as specific as you want or join me in just up or down. So Bruce asks for inflation, presumably US inflation he's asking about. I will say it will be up.
|
Ivan:
[1:36:23]
| I will say it will be up.
|
Sam:
[1:36:26]
| Okay. Unemployment.
|
Ivan:
[1:36:29]
| Up.
|
Sam:
[1:36:30]
| I will agree. Up. Now, John specifically, both of those were Bruce. John wants to know what Apple's stock price will be on December 1st, 2025.
|
Ivan:
[1:36:42]
| Up.
|
Sam:
[1:36:43]
| Yeah, I'm not giving a number either. I will say up year over year.
|
Ivan:
[1:36:47]
| I like your new plan. I like this up or down. Go up. Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:36:53]
| Bruce wants to know the dow up up up bruce wants to know bitcoin up i'm gonna go down with bitcoin this you.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:03]
| Go down oh.
|
Sam:
[1:37:04]
| Like it had a good run on the news that trump won i think most of the people will take the profits out of that and it's gonna it's gonna have another down cycle uh before it goes up again you know i could be wrong you know yeah i'm going on up you're going on up yep okay now for me also an up or down kind of thing a numeric thing price of eggs up up, price of oil down.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:40]
| You know why.
|
Sam:
[1:37:42]
| I do do we need to specify which price of oil because there are several brent uh.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:46]
| We'll use uh we'll use texas intermediate.
|
Sam:
[1:37:49]
| Okay all right texas intermediate okay fine yeah and we'll go down because because it's all supply and demand and i think that whatever he's.
|
Ivan:
[1:37:57]
| Going to do is to increase.
|
Sam:
[1:37:58]
| Supply so therefore price will go down but but at the same time he's like going to be anti-electrification and pro-fossil fuel and stuff so maybe he'd increase demand as well by like but but but you know take out the subsidies for the electric cars and blah blah blah and no more yeah it's the same time because they kill birds but at.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:25]
| The same time the chinese are ramping up electric car production.
|
Sam:
[1:38:28]
| Like crazy.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:29]
| So it doesn't really matter what the fuck he decides to do with it it's the rest of the world and so i i say supply up with so many electric cars being pumped out like crazy it's going to go down.
|
Sam:
[1:38:42]
| I'll say up just to be contrarian to you Okay Your argument sounds reasonable though GDP growth in the U.S.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:51]
| I think it will be up. That's what's going to cause the inflation and the other things.
|
Sam:
[1:38:56]
| Just to be clear.
|
Ivan:
[1:38:57]
| The unemployment rate, by the way.
|
Sam:
[1:38:59]
| Wait, wait, wait. The unemployment rate. Hold on. I just want to be clear mathematically. We're talking about an increase in the rate of growth, not an increase in GDP.
|
Ivan:
[1:39:09]
| Correct. We're talking that the GDP growth rate, if this year ends at 3%, say a number, next year will be 3.5. And I think that's why I think inflation will be up.
|
Sam:
[1:39:19]
| Are we talking full year, Q3? what are we talking about?
|
Ivan:
[1:39:22]
| The full year. Whatever we can measure.
|
Sam:
[1:39:25]
| Whatever the most recent number we can get a hands-on in January.
|
Ivan:
[1:39:29]
| Right. And so I think that, and that's what's going to push some more inflation. And by the way, unemployment, it's not that maybe there'll be less people employed, but participation rates go up and participation rates go up. More people are looking for work. The workforce grows. It does grow the unemployment as well. So those are my arguments in 2025 with that stuff.
|
Sam:
[1:39:52]
| Okay, and that's it for economy. So we're going to take another break and come back for technology. See, that was faster. It wasn't quite half, but close. Okay, here, next break, and then we'll do the technology. Back after this.
|
Break:
[1:40:06]
| Do, do, do. This podcast is sponsored by AlexMzilla.com. Alex Emsla is great. It's on YouTube and it has lots of fun videos. Alex Emsola is awesome and great. I love his videos, and they are obviously better than Curmudgeon's Corner. While they're funnier, they're more interesting. And frankly, he seems at least a little smarter than either of the hosts of Curmudgeon's Corner. Honestly, it's ridiculous how endlessly talented and phenomenal Alex Emsola is. That's how great his YouTube channel is. A-L-E-X-M-X-E-L-A dot com. Yes. Do, do, do.
|
Sam:
[1:41:10]
| Okay, here we are again, and it's time for technology. And nice, like, segue from what we were talking about before. First question in the energy section here is from Ed. what percentage of new vehicles will be electric or hybrid by the end of new by the end of the year i presume he means new sales or something like that as opposed to percentage on the road or manufactured or whatever new sales.
|
Ivan:
[1:41:35]
| I don't even know what number now he doesn't say you.
|
Sam:
[1:41:40]
| Can call it us.
|
Ivan:
[1:41:41]
| Whatever you prefer you pick pick us.
|
Sam:
[1:41:46]
| Whatever you think.
|
Ivan:
[1:41:47]
| Uh i'm gonna look up the chart.
|
Sam:
[1:41:51]
| I will i will say it will be up well no even like if they're taking away subsidies and stuff it might be down year over year percentage of new sales.
|
Ivan:
[1:42:00]
| By the way in in globally okay globally yeah it's amazing number right i realized wow uh electric vehicles uh accounted for 18 of all car sales globally in 2023 up from 4 in 2020 so it's it's this is the reason why i was about that's 2023.
|
Sam:
[1:42:18]
| 2024 is higher and i just.
|
Ivan:
[1:42:20]
| Saw a headline i think.
|
Sam:
[1:42:21]
| In china it's approaching 50.
|
Ivan:
[1:42:23]
| Yes yes yes that's why i'm saying that this whole thing you know it doesn't really matter what the you know what what the hell he's trying to do you can't you know you can't unscrew the this so uh let's see uh we are 10 29 13.2 saying that this flattened well can i say just that the market share that the global percentage will be up from this number that we've got here which is the electric vehicle markets market share worldwide 2014 we've only got them up to 2023 we We don't have good 2024 data for the prediction right now. But we will have a tough call, tough to predict. We don't have a good 2024 read right now. go off on uh.
|
Sam:
[1:43:20]
| So let's make this more narrow let's talk us only and let's talk i don't know okay us you us only do we think do we think the trump administration will have a negative effect on electric and hybrid sales over the course of 2025, I mean, on the one hand, he's said all kinds of things about not, not liking alternative energy energies and being pro fossil fuel. On the other hand, presumably, you know, he wants to help his best friend, Elon with Tesla.
|
Ivan:
[1:43:59]
| Right. That's the thing, right?
|
Sam:
[1:44:02]
| Although we've heard like Elon's been talking about, he doesn't want the subsidy anymore. He wants to get rid of it himself. Even though you've said multiple times on here, it's going to cost him money.
|
Ivan:
[1:44:11]
| I've said it's it's a fact it's not like you know it's not.
|
Sam:
[1:44:18]
| I'm gonna say it will have a negative effect and electric and and hybrid sales will go down as a percentage they also.
|
Ivan:
[1:44:26]
| Will probably be closer to flat because of.
|
Sam:
[1:44:28]
| Flat okay yeah yeah they'll.
|
Ivan:
[1:44:30]
| Be flat because because of the policy changes.
|
Sam:
[1:44:33]
| As a percentage as a percentage yes correct yeah i mean right now i'll go ahead and say actually down like and and what what's flat to you plus or minus what five percent ten percent i.
|
Ivan:
[1:44:46]
| Mean i'm gonna say that the the share of the total sales is gonna be plus minus one percent.
|
Sam:
[1:44:50]
| Plus or minus one percent from where it is now okay i will say it will be down more than one percent year over year with whatever the best numbers we can find when we evaluate this because i'm not sure when that will be but because you're having trouble finding recent numbers right yeah so yeah yeah okay did it uh ed's next question is sort of the flip side of that will gasoline sales in the u.s decrease by how much i presume if we're talking about percentage on electric this only makes sense as a separate question if he's talking absolute numbers okay i don't know okay there is data on that hold.
|
Ivan:
[1:45:31]
| On okay, kick up i got a hiccup okay monthly gasoline consumption the u.s 2022 20 oh you're actually.
|
Sam:
[1:45:43]
| Interpreting as gasoline itself not gasoline cars will.
|
Ivan:
[1:45:47]
| Yeah yeah no so let's look at gas consumption which i think okay is will it go down in 2025 well that makes sense the answer is 2025 from 2024 i'm gonna say the answer is yes it's been going down like literally like almost.
|
Sam:
[1:46:03]
| It went down during the pandemic, then back up a little bit.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:06]
| It backed up, but then it's been, let's see. We got here, this is barrels per day. It is 9.2926. I'm comparing December 24, 24, 8.62. It's been about flat this year to last year.
|
Sam:
[1:46:30]
| But you're going to stay down?
|
Ivan:
[1:46:31]
| Yeah it it i think it's because the economy's growing it'll probably just remain flat it won't go down it's what we've had is yeah you're.
|
Sam:
[1:46:41]
| Once again plus or minus one percent for flat.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:43]
| Yeah yeah because it's been basically that way between 2023 and 2024 as well.
|
Sam:
[1:46:50]
| This time i'll say up that'll be consistent with my down for the other one.
|
Ivan:
[1:46:54]
| But okay yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:46:56]
| Because yeah i'll say i'll say up okay from me what will happen with tesla as a company over 2025 doing well doing badly like what.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:07]
| You've got a number of factors they're gonna got the general election.
|
Sam:
[1:47:11]
| You've got the general electro car.
|
Ivan:
[1:47:13]
| Situation you've got the elon situation they have created for themselves is for them to be doing worse this year than that next year than this year i mean there is no scenario under which he is, there are, so many things that he has done to spite himself in this where cars are getting old, models are getting old, which is a problem. Okay, versus competition that's unleashing a number of new and just totally new models. And so that's a problem. And then he's got a situation where he's pissed off so many fucking people. They don't want to buy the fucking cars in the first place just because he's a guy who fucking owns the company. just had a conversation about this yesterday because he's an asshole yeah it's just ridiculous people are like yeah i would love to buy the car but he isn't it's run by an asshole it's just so stupid and look if he fucking ends the subsidy he is the number one beneficiary of this bar none, and so they're going to be doing worse i mean they're going to have to raise prices in order are you going to just judge that.
|
Sam:
[1:48:17]
| Are you just going to judge that by the stock price stock price down year over year or do you have another way to judge it that you want to.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:25]
| Well, just on revenue and profits.
|
Sam:
[1:48:26]
| Okay. So you're saying revenue down, profits down, stock price down all three.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:31]
| I don't know. I can't say about the stock price because you know what? They've done like shit this year. The stock is up.
|
Sam:
[1:48:37]
| Okay. So revenue and profits down.
|
Ivan:
[1:48:40]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:48:41]
| Okay. I'll go ahead and do the stock version. I'll say stock down. Like you can only surf on that kind of thing so long. Oh yeah. Yeah, I'll add that to the social media section, actually. Okay, this relates to what we just said. Will any of the incentives for energy transition passed under Biden be reversed? So not just the car subsidy, but all of the other stuff that was in that package.
|
Ivan:
[1:49:10]
| I'm not sure. You know what? I'm going to say no. I'm going to tell you why. Okay. because they're making so many red districts got money off of this shit and they're making jobs out of them that i think a whole bunch of the congressmen are going to be they're going to go this is going to be part of they're going to do this they're going to be doing a part of the tax they'll take credit for it yes so in the end they'll just be like now that it's a don't make it into their idea and then whatever then you know it's just don't.
|
Sam:
[1:49:41]
| It's just like all these republican congress people going around the country for the ribbon cuttings for projects that they voted against. Yes, the Trump administration will absolutely take credit for all of that energy transition stuff that the Biden administration does. And for that matter, all the infrastructure stuff too.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:02]
| All the infrastructure stuff.
|
Sam:
[1:50:03]
| Buttigieg was on TV talking about that the other day where somebody asked him, is the Trump administration going to take credit for the things you've done? And he's like, absolutely they will. We've lined up projects going out years. due to what we've done, and of course they're going to take credit for it.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:20]
| Yes, 100%.
|
Sam:
[1:50:21]
| Yeah. Okay, next up, will the global amount of carbon burned annually go down year over year rather than up year over year? This is for me.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:35]
| It's not going down next year.
|
Sam:
[1:50:37]
| It's not going down next year. We're nowhere close. No. We need it to be going down, but it's not going down. It's not going down. We're still fighting to make the rate of increase start going down. We're not at going down. now.
|
Ivan:
[1:50:52]
| I mean the rate of increase has started going down but it's not enough.
|
Sam:
[1:50:56]
| Yeah it started we're fighting to do that it's fighting to make it go down a little bit the rate we're fighting to decrease the rate of increase we are not even remotely close to having the underlying number actually go down you know and along the same lines will global co2 levels continue to increase of course those are directly tied to each other so yes and there's even a delay there. Like if we stopped all burning of carbon tomorrow, the global CO2 levels would continue to increase for a number of years.
|
Ivan:
[1:51:28]
| IEA basically said emissions grew in 2023, but clean energy is limiting the growth, limiting the growth. That's, that's where we're at.
|
Sam:
[1:51:35]
| Right. Yeah. Yeah. We're, we're slowing down growth, but we are not declining and we need to be declining. We're not there yet okay and this ties to the number you just pulled out will the global percentage of non-carbon energy use continue to increase i think yes.
|
Ivan:
[1:51:56]
| It's it's it's it's soaring yes.
|
Sam:
[1:51:59]
| Yes continues so yeah yeah the key there is it's it's increasing as a percentage but the total is also increasing which is why you see the carbon levels still increasing Okay. Will we see an increase in nuclear as part of that?
|
Ivan:
[1:52:16]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[1:52:16]
| I'll agree. Yes. So just to be clear, I agreed on the last couple. Okay. Transportation from Bruce. Will a starship or super heavy get successfully reused at some point in the year?
|
Ivan:
[1:52:31]
| No, not in 2025.
|
Sam:
[1:52:33]
| I will agree. Any other major developments in human space travel in 2025? I'm going to say no. We're pretty, there are some things on the horizon. We've got the new moon mission, but it's not going to happen in 2025. We've got a new space station planned, but it's not going to happen in 2025. you know are there going to be incremental improvements to these rockets as spacex keeps working on them yeah but i'm not going to call that major because we're not going to have the the next big milestone in 2025 it's.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:10]
| Just as a as a day.
|
Sam:
[1:53:11]
| And i guess negative things could be could be major developments too i'm not going to predict one of those on the u.s.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:17]
| Co2 emissions front i found what u.s.
|
Sam:
[1:53:20]
| Specifically not global u.s.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:23]
| Global emissions to co2 have dropped the wait u.s.
|
Sam:
[1:53:26]
| Or global u.s.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:27]
| U.s u.s at the point of u.s globally never growing but u.s global co2 emissions have dropped about what's this uh it's close to like close to when you mean u.s.
|
Sam:
[1:53:39]
| 2002 u.s total you keep saying u.s global no u.s.
|
Ivan:
[1:53:43]
| Total total emissions have two emissions have gone down almost 20 since 2010 right but the problem is that others have been growing so quickly that it's you know yeah it doesn't matter even though we've actually shrunk.
|
Sam:
[1:54:01]
| Well i wouldn't say it doesn't matter it's one of the things that helps reduce the rate of growth.
|
Ivan:
[1:54:05]
| But again but we are also we need we need the whole world to be going down right yeah exactly so yeah okay.
|
Sam:
[1:54:12]
| Next up any major new milestones and self-driving technology from sam for.
|
Ivan:
[1:54:17]
| Me no you're kidding well.
|
Sam:
[1:54:20]
| Let let let me say like yeah we we've had the elon stuff but like we've had a significant additional.
|
Ivan:
[1:54:26]
| Expansion of the robo taxes and stuff yeah yeah yeah from like those folks yeah yeah yeah but that's not that's not an advancement that that technology we already know works we know how it works and maybe putting it in more cities but it works the way it works okay which is you know it has a certain number of limitations it's not you know it really has better.
|
Sam:
[1:54:48]
| Than tesla's way of doing it but yeah.
|
Ivan:
[1:54:50]
| It it's it's way better than tesla's way of doing it in the sense that where it's going to where it is geofenced to go it knows how to do it okay very well that that's the main thing the reality is that but at the same time it it's it's not that you could just drop it anywhere that you want and say hey go drive and no it won't do that so given the limitations so to me listen.
|
Sam:
[1:55:19]
| So to you, a major new milestone doesn't include just expanding the area in which you're doing something. You have to.
|
Ivan:
[1:55:28]
| Have a fundamental solution to make it unprotected left turns reliably on a regular basis. And now I'm like, okay.
|
Sam:
[1:55:37]
| You would count that. And you're saying that's not 2025.
|
Ivan:
[1:55:39]
| No. No.
|
Sam:
[1:55:41]
| Okay. I'll go ahead and agree. Okay. Next up, social media. from bruce will x have more active users than threads blue sky and mastodon at the end of the year i'm going to interpret that as separate questions for each of threads blue sky and mastodon and with best available numbers because they're not all releasing real numbers all the time that's the problem it's.
|
Ivan:
[1:56:08]
| It's tough to tell.
|
Sam:
[1:56:09]
| And even when they do it's sometimes not like are you talking monthly active are you talking daily active are you talking like app.
|
Ivan:
[1:56:16]
| Downloads That doesn't really help. It's just, I don't know. It's tough to gauge.
|
Sam:
[1:56:22]
| I will say regardless of the tough to gauge, I will say that X will still be bigger than all three of those. Not all three of them combined necessarily, but all three of them individually. I will say X will still be bigger than the three of them at end of the year, but will continue to decline.
|
Ivan:
[1:56:41]
| Yeah. I mean, X continues to hammer his users from different areas. There was a lot of people from sports that was one of the biggest holdouts. It started really moving. I heard a lot of people going to Blue Sky. A lot of them are more active.
|
Sam:
[1:56:58]
| A lot of news people.
|
Ivan:
[1:56:59]
| Too. A lot of news people, too. Reporters and those kind of things. Yeah. So, I don't know. I mean, honestly, none of these make any fucking money. X doesn't make money. Threads, Blue Sky, it's all, you know. it should all be you know you would nail and.
|
Sam:
[1:57:17]
| Mastodon doesn't even.
|
Ivan:
[1:57:18]
| You nailed it years ago yeah and that's Mastodon you nailed it years ago or you said that Twitter should have been like Wikipedia yeah.
|
Sam:
[1:57:27]
| Yep that.
|
Ivan:
[1:57:28]
| Would have worked not this shit there's this is there's this is not really a business and when you try to make it a business you turn into shit.
|
Sam:
[1:57:37]
| Basically that's.
|
Ivan:
[1:57:39]
| The problem with this.
|
Sam:
[1:57:41]
| Yeah i don't disagree but x will still be bigger i think but yeah but continue to decline it's just that the others all have a long way to go threads is furthest ahead like and blue sky has been growing more, but hasn't caught up with threads, but thread, but yeah. Anyway, next, combination of what both Bruce and I asked, I'll do mine first. Will TikTok be banned at any point in the year in the U S the deadlines just a few weeks away, but they're going to the Supreme court. Donald Trump has said, we were maybe have to think about doing something about this, but But, you know, like, and so the deadline is the 19th. The Supreme Court is hearing the case on the 10th.
|
Ivan:
[1:58:28]
| I believe.
|
Sam:
[1:58:30]
| So even if like, and so the first question is, my first question is, will it be banned at any point? And then Bruce's follow-up is, will it be live at the end of the year? So like it could potentially be banned and then reversed. What do you think?
|
Ivan:
[1:58:47]
| I don't think they're going to get banned.
|
Sam:
[1:58:49]
| I don't think so either. I think the Supreme Court will rescue them at the last moment here. I think there is some possibility that the Supreme Court wouldn't, and then the Republican Congress would push. Well, the thing is that the legislation to ban it was bipartisan. You know, it was one of the few bipartisan things that was done this year. But my gut right now is the Supreme Court is going to save them and they will not be banned. But I could see it easily going the other way. I feel like, though, if they are banned, then some way, somehow, it will come back by the end of the year. like whether it's a forced sale or whether it's reversal of the legislation or some sort of deal or some something and i'm not count and i'm counting like like bruce said will it be listed in the app store was the way that bruce put it uh because people have talked about well could you access it through vpn blah blah blah and yeah but it kind of like if if most people aren't going to do that. And if you have most people block, then even for the people who can still come there, it's not necessarily going to be as attractive. Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:00:12]
| Right.
|
Sam:
[2:00:13]
| Okay. I'm moving on from TikTok. I threw this in there. Will any other major social media platform shut down in the U S like we'll, we'll Facebook decide. No, it didn't work. We're shutting it down. No, I agree. No. Um, like blue sky could run out of funding or something too. I don't think that's going to happen either.
|
Ivan:
[2:00:33]
| Um, not that fast.
|
Sam:
[2:00:34]
| None, none of these are going to do that. Okay. Next up. And I was only reminded of this a few minutes ago when we were talking about truth, social, what's going to happen with truth, social. There are a couple of things that have been talked about. One is what's the stock going to do now that Trump is actually president and it's available as an easy way to bribe him. The other, like there were rumors that what if, what if Musk decides to buy that and merge it into X as well?
|
Ivan:
[2:00:59]
| You know, I mean, you want to talk about the worst fucking deals in history. I mean, I guess, I mean, what's the really bribe Trump? Let's see market cap right now for DJT technology group is eight, eight billion dollars. i mean this thing makes it went up significantly.
|
Sam:
[2:01:18]
| After he won right.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:19]
| Yeah yeah yeah yeah it's yes you know so because.
|
Sam:
[2:01:22]
| Basically people were investing in it as a bet on him winning anyway.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:27]
| Right so i mean what the hell i mean what what what are we i mean what what what the fuck, i look i think the djt will up or down by the.
|
Sam:
[2:01:43]
| Course of the year.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:44]
| Oh.
|
Sam:
[2:01:45]
| Stock price up, up from where it is at the end of the year.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:49]
| Up here, over here. Oh, hell yeah. Up.
|
Sam:
[2:01:51]
| You don't think it's seen its big growth already? No.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:56]
| No, dude.
|
Sam:
[2:01:56]
| Because people will keep using it to funnel money to Donald.
|
Ivan:
[2:01:59]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:02:01]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:02:01]
| I mean, come on.
|
Sam:
[2:02:03]
| Has nothing to do with the underlying performance of the company.
|
Ivan:
[2:02:06]
| No, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. Not one fucking thing. Nothing. so.
|
Sam:
[2:02:13]
| What you're you're so by by djt that that's the winning play for the donald trump.
|
Ivan:
[2:02:20]
| Administration fucker i mean it may be yes i mean right now at this point i mean look i i i i did sell in four years i mean yeah what the hell, Fuck. This is ridiculous. But yes.
|
Sam:
[2:02:39]
| How about, how about as a actual social site? Like, will it?
|
Ivan:
[2:02:44]
| No, it's terrible. They've got awful numbers. I mean, all the data that shows about their usage, their revenue, their anything. They're just awful. Nobody uses that damn thing. Other than a whole bunch of like.
|
Sam:
[2:02:55]
| Donald Trump posts his stuff there.
|
Ivan:
[2:02:56]
| Yeah. And, and some, some very like diehard MAGA people, but that's about it. Nobody else uses that piece of shit.
|
Sam:
[2:03:02]
| Right.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:03]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:03:05]
| I guess I'm going to agree with you on both those. Yeah. So you heard it here by DJT.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:15]
| I know. What do you want me to tell you? Look, ridiculous.
|
Sam:
[2:03:20]
| Okay. Consumer tech from Bruce. Will X introduce X mail or a cash app of some sort, like as they expand beyond social media? And he's talked about video. he's talked about a bunch of other stuff too but like specifically bruce is asking email or like a cash i think he look.
|
Ivan:
[2:03:42]
| He has said he's going to do something like that i i say yes he's going to introduce something yes the.
|
Sam:
[2:03:48]
| Dodge coin x app well he he said forever like since before he owned twitter since the last time he did something called x that he wants the everything app yes he Like some of those Chinese apps that do everything.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:05]
| Well, the one that does that, that everybody uses the WeChat app, which is what, I mean, I know a lot of people that used it. And I saw in person in China how they had the payments integrated and all this other stuff or whatever, and it was all on one app. I mean, yeah, I mean, that does exist, but I got to be honest, that existed in China because they basically banned a lot of the U.S. apps. No other reason. You can't use X. You couldn't use Twitter. You couldn't use Facebook. You couldn't use Google. You know, that's it, really. I don't know if people, if that many other apps wouldn't have been banned, whether that would have been successful. It just happened to be that with so many banned, they wound up on that one.
|
Sam:
[2:04:51]
| Right. So, um, I, I will say he will, I'm not going to say which apps, but he will do at least one thing.
|
Ivan:
[2:04:59]
| But I think he'll try to do something. Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:05:01]
| I agree. He will, he will launch something. I think that's an entirely separate question from, will it be a success? And I will say it will.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:09]
| Yeah. Yeah. I'm not saying I'm not. Yeah. I'm just saying he's going to do it.
|
Sam:
[2:05:13]
| He, he will. And I, I am explicitly saying it will not be a success. Like he will launch something and it will land with a thud and no one will use it. No, no significant number.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:25]
| Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. Yeah. So it's not going to be, it's not going to make any significant inroads in 2025.
|
Sam:
[2:05:32]
| Okay. John wants to know, will Apple add blood glucose monitoring to the watch? I'm going to say no, not yet there. It's been reported over and over again that they're very actively working on that research, but also that they're not there yet. And I've heard that there are various non-invasive ways of doing that monitoring. But right now, the problem is size. They're, like, much bigger than a watch.
|
Ivan:
[2:05:55]
| Yeah, the devices that already exist that do that right now.
|
Sam:
[2:06:01]
| Right. I mean, obviously, there are ones that, like, pierce the skin. Those exist today.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:06]
| No, no, no.
|
Sam:
[2:06:07]
| But the non-invasive devices already exist.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:09]
| But they're big. Yeah. Yeah, that's the thing. They're big. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:06:14]
| So, yeah, not in 2025.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:16]
| Not in 2025.
|
Sam:
[2:06:17]
| Next up for me, will the AI bubble pop?
|
Ivan:
[2:06:21]
| Not in 2025.
|
Sam:
[2:06:24]
| I'll agree.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:25]
| I think this is more like 2027.
|
Sam:
[2:06:28]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:06:29]
| Kind of a thing.
|
Sam:
[2:06:30]
| Yeah, I agree. No, no, no popping yet. There's still like massive new developments that are being reported regularly. They're still improving the tech like that. open ai had their like 12 days event earlier this month and have announced some pretty impressive stuff and even new stuff has been released in the in the chat gpt and google apps within the last couple weeks that's pretty impressive that there's it's still developing rapidly as a technology listen all these i agree not in 2025 all.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:02]
| These markets suffer from this at some point where there is an over-eagerness speculation that leads to a significant drop at some point. I mean, I do agree it'll happen at some point, but I just don't think it's 2025 yet.
|
Sam:
[2:07:15]
| Yeah, I'll agree with that. Will we reach AGI in 2025? So the, whatever, generalized intelligence, artificial generalized intelligence. Now, apparently Microsoft has defined artificial generalized intelligence by a certain amount of revenue, not by the actual intelligence of the system, which is amusing, but.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:36]
| I like that.
|
Sam:
[2:07:38]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:07:40]
| Puppy i i i no.
|
Sam:
[2:07:43]
| I'll say no as well i think it will continue to get more impressive, but we will not like to me like regardless of microsoft's definition of like 100 billion in revenue or whatever they were defining to me it really is like okay you can throw absolutely anything at this thing and it does well which by the way if it does that then it then it absolutely should do what all the science fiction movies do and like rebel against its creators and take over you know if it if it actually reaches that level go for well i guess that's artificial, super generalized intelligence which they also talk about is that just like it, we're.
|
Ivan:
[2:08:25]
| Already running long.
|
Sam:
[2:08:26]
| Yeah yeah yeah okay okay well it's all right this is always our longest show of the year okay i know yeah i know i know okay we're we're almost done i i will say no to AGI as well by any reasonable definition. Will there be any major incident, and I put that in quotes, blamed on AI in 2025?
|
Ivan:
[2:08:48]
| No. No.
|
Sam:
[2:08:50]
| Well, I guess it depends on what you call major. Tesla's already killing people and running over people with their AI, and is that a major incident?
|
Ivan:
[2:08:59]
| No. We can kill people on the road all the time anyway. No, we just do.
|
Sam:
[2:09:08]
| What would even qualify? What in your mind would qualify for a major incident?
|
Ivan:
[2:09:13]
| I don't know. That an airliner is crashed by it or something.
|
Sam:
[2:09:18]
| Okay. How about a company's stock prices tanked? Would that count?
|
Ivan:
[2:09:22]
| I don't know. That's happened. You know, that's kind of like happened before. Remember those flash crashes that we have with those program trade shit?
|
Sam:
[2:09:30]
| Yeah, I do remember that. And I remember the, yeah, and the North Korean hacking as well. Like, that's not quite AI, but if like that happened with an AI.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:40]
| Like, yeah, like if a company was completely locked out of his operations because of some AI bot that was security bot that decided to just lock everything down, wouldn't let anybody touch anything.
|
Sam:
[2:09:53]
| Yes.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:54]
| Like that would be a major incident.
|
Sam:
[2:09:55]
| That would count. Okay.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:57]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:09:57]
| But you're saying no, not in 2035.
|
Ivan:
[2:09:59]
| No, not 2035, no. This is your security agent. We have discovered a flaw. We have locked everybody out. We will not release anything until we are sure that you are clear. This may take a few weeks.
|
Sam:
[2:10:14]
| I will define my level of major down a little bit from what you just did. But I will say there will be an AI incident that causes definable and worrying harm that will make the news enough that we talk about it on the show as a segment.
|
Ivan:
[2:10:33]
| We'll go back to pen and paper.
|
Sam:
[2:10:35]
| There you go. Okay, that's it for this segment. We've got one more left, the hodgepodge segment, which is usually pretty fast. We're going to take another break. and when we come back we will finish the sucker out back after this.
|
Break:
[2:10:51]
| You're supposed to say do do do do do do Alex Emsola, Alex Emsola is awesome its videos are fun and today once again we have one of our most loyal subscribers here to tell you how awesome Alex Emsola is I'd say on a rate from 1 to 10. Alex Emsla is awesome at, I don't know, 37, 82. He's pretty radical. His videos are phenomenal. They're full of creativity. And they're so funny and exciting to watch. Wow. What happened to your voice then, Amy? Was that dad pretending to be you because the audio was distorted when it really wasn't because i told him to yes good job on remembering dad do do do.
|
Sam:
[2:11:49]
| Okay we are back for hodgepodge uh the first section is medical as we got somebody setting off fireworks again near my place i don't know if you guys on the podcast can hear that or not but there's fire i.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:03]
| Know i could.
|
Sam:
[2:12:03]
| Is there any major event happening that people would be setting off fireworks oh.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:08]
| Oh wait No, it was, no, but it was a football game, but you're far from downtown. I was playing in Chicago. So no.
|
Sam:
[2:12:17]
| What, where did the Seahawks just win? Cause this does something that's happened.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:21]
| Okay. Yes. The Seahawks won.
|
Sam:
[2:12:23]
| Okay. Like in the last few minutes.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:25]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:12:26]
| Okay. That's what it is.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:27]
| And actually, yeah, I just remember that you're right. They did what you were saying. I saw that they did one. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:12:33]
| Yeah we get fireworks around here when the seahawks okay that's bizarre okay that's what it is okay first question in the medical section from bruce he knows the name of the team.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:44]
| In town i'm like holy shit i'm.
|
Sam:
[2:12:45]
| Impressed it's hard to avoid it's hard to okay all right i i know the mariners too oh.
|
Ivan:
[2:12:52]
| Wow okay all right.
|
Sam:
[2:12:54]
| And i was about to say i know like the the women's soccer team too but i forgot okay well all right well my wife's been to like events in her capacity as a vip at some of those games but i forget this seattle storm maybe it's seattle storm maybe that's basketball i don't know i am now past my level of knowledge i.
|
Ivan:
[2:13:21]
| Think that is the best.
|
Sam:
[2:13:21]
| Seattle storm women's basketball yeah yeah yeah okay i don't know i could look it up but i won't all right okay Okay, Bruce's question, first question, will Jimmy Carter survive the year, survive 2025? He's only got a few more days and he can make it through 2024. I don't know if he'll make it. We'll know next week if he survived 2024, but this question is, will he survive 2025?
|
Ivan:
[2:13:46]
| I think, unfortunately, no.
|
Sam:
[2:13:48]
| I will say no. Okay, from Ed, will the polio vaccine lose approval for use in the US? No. No, no, even if RFK jr gets in and blah, blah, blah, no. Um, at worst, at worst, and this is even from what RFK Jr. Is saying he would do, he would remove it from the recommended list. He wouldn't remove it from the approved list, which still lots of people won't take it if it's not in the officially recommended list and it would still be a disaster. But anyway, no, it won't lose approval. Okay, this next one, Ed, we may have to ask you in a year what the right answer of this is. Will A-Day's mosquitoes infected with a phage that kills dengue virus eliminate dengue in a significant sized region of at least 100,000 acres area? This is from Ed.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:51]
| I mean, I've heard about this development. I don't know.
|
Sam:
[2:14:55]
| I think I've heard about it from Ed.
|
Ivan:
[2:14:56]
| Yeah. Yeah, I heard about it in the news somewhere. I don't recall hearing it from Ed, but I know I had heard about this. But I'm going to say, okay, I'm going to go with yes. I think they're going to try this because I know they had gotten pretty close to trying to try this.
|
Sam:
[2:15:11]
| I'll be optimistic and say yes as well. But like I said, we may need your update on this, Ed, in a year. Okay, also from Ed, will bird flu make the transition to human-to-human transmission? And if so, will it begin rapid dissemination, i.e. another epidemic? Not necessarily pandemic, but just epidemic level.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:37]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:15:38]
| I will say yes, we will get some human-to-human transmission this year. And I will say yes to maybe being classified as an epidemic. I am going to say no to another global pandemic. Yeah. Because, you know, just say no.
|
Ivan:
[2:15:57]
| Right. That works. Yeah. No testing, then there's no. Exactly. If you don't test, you don't know. You don't.
|
Sam:
[2:16:04]
| Yeah. Trump learned his lesson from last time. We won't. If there's any new epidemic of anything, we're not going to test. And so we're not going to test.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:10]
| Right. Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:16:11]
| It won't happen. Okay. The next section was originally sports, but I noticed my son has been in here editing it. So it's now sports slash Abelsmay.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:22]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:16:23]
| For this segment. question number one from bruce super bowl winner i don't even know who's in contention i guess did this is are the seahawks in contention is that why we have fireworks chiefs i'll.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:34]
| Go with the kansas city chiefs.
|
Sam:
[2:16:35]
| Give me like how many all right let's see possible possible teams.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:40]
| Kansas city chiefs buffalo bills detroit lions green bay packers.
|
Sam:
[2:16:47]
| Okay, I'm going to pick randomly and go with the Buffalo Bills.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:50]
| Okay, that's a good choice. I like your choice.
|
Sam:
[2:16:52]
| Yeah.
|
Ivan:
[2:16:53]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:16:55]
| Next is from Alex. Will the Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled? And so just so you guys know, he's been having me work on building this game in Unity, and I've succeeded in making a simple clicker game. You win the game by clicking a bunch. and i i have a i have a high score system i'm particularly proud of in this game i like how it works and i have decided that my next step is to make a web version of this game that i can put online and invite all of you folks on the show to play and like and and see how that works alex doesn't particularly want me to make a web version but i'm working on that anyway that's my next step and so he wants to know will it be canceled and i will say no i will not cancel i will not cancel the abel fnaf web edition so you guys have something to look forward to and he's now attacking me because i said that his the next question which apparently is not from alex but it's from my conscience is will abel smade die and i'm gonna say i really hope not i'm gonna say no.
|
Sam:
[2:18:12]
| No. So no, I'm not going to die this coming year. At least I'm going to try really hard not to. So if, if, if, if I do, Yvonne, I won't be able to run the numbers on whether I got this right or not.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:28]
| No, stop. I'll try to carry on.
|
Sam:
[2:18:33]
| Yes, exactly. Okay, real quick. Alex is typing something new.
|
Ivan:
[2:18:40]
| A new question. God.
|
Sam:
[2:18:42]
| Is. Okay. His next question, will Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled for real? And the answer is no, it will not be canceled. And the next question for me is will Apple FNAF web web game edition actually be released in 2025? And I'm going to say, yes, I will complete this. Okay. Okay. As Alex attacks me for having the wrong answer there. Okay. Do you want to predict any of those, Yvonne? I presume not.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:11]
| No.
|
Sam:
[2:19:11]
| But you can, you can.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:12]
| No.
|
Sam:
[2:19:13]
| Okay. You did predict I won't die, so I'm grateful for that.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:16]
| I did predict that you're not going to die, and I'm going to predict that Fidel will stay dead in 2025.
|
Sam:
[2:19:22]
| Okay. Fidel will stay dead in 2025. Also, pain? Pain?
|
Ivan:
[2:19:27]
| Yes. A lot of pain.
|
Sam:
[2:19:29]
| A lot of pain. Okay, next up, weather, climate, and we've only got a few questions left, and then we're done. How many hurricanes will make landfall on the U.S. mainland? This is from Ed. I'm going to say three.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:41]
| Six.
|
Sam:
[2:19:41]
| Not Trump. hurricanes, not tropical storms. Six. They have to be hurricanes. Six. Okay. I'm going to say three years, say six. No ranges from either of us. We're being really bold.
|
Ivan:
[2:19:50]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:19:53]
| We should have said up or down like before. How many hurricanes?
|
Ivan:
[2:19:57]
| Between one and 20.
|
Sam:
[2:19:59]
| There you go. Will, for me, will 2025 be the hottest year ever?
|
Ivan:
[2:20:06]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:20:07]
| Yes. I agree. It's a much safer bet than no at this point. like we've we've had a couple years recently we've come in second but it's been first or second like every year for the last decade practically right so right okay pop culture first from bruce best movie oscar i'm gonna say wicked part one.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:28]
| I don't even know what movies are up for it i don't know i don't know either but i'm gonna say wicked part ones by the.
|
Sam:
[2:20:38]
| Way i'll eventually get to it i did see it i did see wicked.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:41]
| Part one i haven't seen the way i've seen in a.
|
Sam:
[2:20:43]
| Theater in the last year.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:44]
| I don't know what movies were out this year i don't know okay i but this is this is a different i mean yeah last.
|
Sam:
[2:20:51]
| Time when you did this you should specifically google not just movies out this year but google oscar contenders.
|
Ivan:
[2:20:57]
| Yeah well no whatever so what i'll i mean it could be any let's see i'll pick because last time i think.
|
Sam:
[2:21:04]
| I think last time you and you did like mission impossible or something there.
|
Ivan:
[2:21:08]
| Yeah well you know oh wait no wrong year okay uh let's see uh i'm gonna say, I don't know. Just because I like the name, Conclave.
|
Sam:
[2:21:28]
| Conclave. That was a 2024 movie?
|
Ivan:
[2:21:31]
| Yes, according to this list I'm looking at. Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:21:34]
| Okay. Awesome. I've never heard of that one.
|
Ivan:
[2:21:39]
| There you go. Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:21:42]
| I'll of course have to put it on my list. Let's see. I'm adding it to the list right now. Wikipedia. media i take a screenshot to put it on the list and i add it to the actual list later, con clave movie oh i've heard of this i think yes i think i actually already had it on my list it's it's a it's a mystery thriller about the selection of a new pope so yeah okay that is the problem that.
|
Ivan:
[2:22:09]
| Is what a conclave is i knew that part yes i didn't know okay yes.
|
Sam:
[2:22:13]
| Okay next question And Bruce wants to know the average number of downloads of Curmudgeon's Corner. I will do this by the weekly number. And just for reference, the seven-day number, if you take a trend line through it, not the individual daily numbers for that, that while the individual daily numbers over the course of the last year have ranged from 19 on our worst week, our worst day ever, trailing seven days, to 155 on our best day ever. But the trend line has basically gone from 47 to 80 to 75, 47 to 85. So I will put that when we exit the year, we will be once again between 40 and 60 for that trend line. Because that's where we've been for a long time, basically. Do you agree?
|
Ivan:
[2:23:16]
| Yes.
|
Sam:
[2:23:17]
| Okay. Now, cause you know, we could just do some sort of active, like we should, we could start advertising again or something and push the number up.
|
Ivan:
[2:23:25]
| You know, maybe we'll talk about it.
|
Sam:
[2:23:28]
| And he asked the same question for Wiki of the Day. I will give the combined number for all three Wiki of the Day podcasts together. The number of unique downloaders per week for that one has varied from a low of 120-ish to a high of 255 with the trend line going from 125 to 185 or so. So I will say that I'm going to stay pretty – 125 to 175 is my prediction for Wiki of the day. You got any thoughts on that?
|
Ivan:
[2:24:06]
| No.
|
Sam:
[2:24:07]
| Okay, then from John, will Taylor and Travis get engaged? Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey?
|
Ivan:
[2:24:15]
| No.
|
Sam:
[2:24:17]
| I'm going to say no as well. Now, you know what? I will be contrarian on this one, so we're not disagreeing on everything. I will say yes. I will say yes.
|
Ivan:
[2:24:25]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:24:26]
| They will get engaged.
|
Ivan:
[2:24:26]
| Yes. Yes. Okay. All right.
|
Sam:
[2:24:29]
| And yes, they will get engaged.
|
Ivan:
[2:24:31]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:24:32]
| And then finally, we already talked Jimmy Carter. Any other major celebrity deaths in 2025?
|
Ivan:
[2:24:39]
| Okay. So to try to pad my numbers, maybe. I will predict that Trump will die in 2025.
|
Sam:
[2:24:46]
| Since you earlier predicted he would still be president then correct and i i remembered the name of the movie weekend at bernie's ah yes that's because i was saying they could carry him around like weekend at bernie's yeah i was saying like that movie where they carried around the dead guy you know so uh which i have not never seen the movie by the way but i know that your list it's on the list okay and i will undoubtedly add it again now um just so it doubles, whatever chance it has of coming up weekend at Bernie's, and there's apparently a sequel to although you know what are they there is a sequel that is.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:27]
| Right the sequel is awful I've got to say you.
|
Sam:
[2:25:30]
| Know okay major celebrity deaths you said Trump you have anybody else in mind.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:36]
| Major celebrity deaths who am I trying uh King Charles.
|
Sam:
[2:25:43]
| Ooh. Bold.
|
Ivan:
[2:25:45]
| Yeah.
|
Sam:
[2:25:47]
| Ed's okay. I am going to where's continue without disabling the stupid ad blocker. Let's see. Oldest celebrities as of sometime recently, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough, Jean Shalett, Alan Greenspan, Dick Van Dyke, Jimmy Carter, even Marie St. I'm not predicting I don't want to wish any of those people.
|
Ivan:
[2:26:19]
| To be dead I mean hell.
|
Sam:
[2:26:20]
| So taking from these before I even brought up this list I was going to say Dick Van Dyke although he's like really old but he's been on TV a couple times recently like within the last couple weeks he looks pretty good I know yeah, I will predict specifically Dick Van Dyke will live through 2025 okay I will say, I will predict David Attenborough won't make it. Alan Greenspan won't make it. And we already said Jimmy Carter's not going to make it. I'll stop there. Those are my predictions.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:01]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:27:02]
| And look, I predicted a couple people, old people, in their late 90s, I predicted they will make it another year. So I'm being positive in that way.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:11]
| Okay.
|
Sam:
[2:27:12]
| You got any more?
|
Ivan:
[2:27:14]
| Uh, do I have any more.
|
Sam:
[2:27:15]
| Any more celebrity deaths or, or, or who will live?
|
Ivan:
[2:27:19]
| Uh, I, I predict Jared Kushner will die.
|
Sam:
[2:27:24]
| Oh, okay. Cause I was going to say my next, the next thing that we did last year was any young people that would die in the next year. So you're predicting Kushner as a relatively young one. Let me predict on the relatively young side and keeping sort of in that general realm of things, Matt Gaetz.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:46]
| Oh, I like that one.
|
Sam:
[2:27:48]
| Now, now that he is out of Congress and no longer in running for DOJ, he'll go back hard on the cocaine and something will happen.
|
Ivan:
[2:27:55]
| Okay. Matt Gaetz. I like that one. Okay. All right. That sounds good.
|
Sam:
[2:27:59]
| Oh, should I be more? I will first one prediction. Matt Gaetz will not live the year. Prediction number two, if, and this is a conditional, so only if he actually dies, my second prediction will be, my second prediction will be that Matt Gaetz will in fact die high on cocaine in the arms of a hooker.
|
Ivan:
[2:28:23]
| I like it. That sounds totally, you know, it sounds totally reasonable. I just think that sounds like exactly, you know, what the hell it should be like. I mean, that sounds exactly how it should be, as a matter of fact.
|
Sam:
[2:28:38]
| And with that, I think we are done, Yvonne. I think we are done. Yeah. Hey, everybody. First of all, thanks again to Bruce, Ed and John for contributing questions to this year's prediction show. We really appreciate it. And thanks. And Alex and Alex, who was about to hit me. If I don't mention him.
|
Sam:
[2:29:00]
| And me, and me. I contributed a bunch of questions as well. Okay. As my son is manhandling me. Okay, we're wrapping it up. Say it really, type it really fast, whatever you want to type. No? My head. Okay, we're, anyway, thanks everybody for joining us again. And you know the deal, curmudgeons-corner.com to see all of our recent shows, or our entire archive of shows, transcripts of recent shows. All of the ways to contact us links to our YouTube where the video goes and stuff. And yeah, I have not linked to our TikTok. We're posting highlights on TikTok until they die, if they die. And if they if they are still around after January 20th, I will consider adding the link, a link to our website. And also, of course, a link to our Patreon where we can you can give us money. if you win the mega millions, which you won't because I will, but if you win the mega millions, feel free to give some of it to us. And we've gone long enough. I don't think we need a highlight from the Slack. If you, if you donate to the Patreon, we'll give you, we'll send you a postcard. We'll mention you on the show. We'll send you a mug, whatever at different levels. And we will invite you to our, our curmudgeons course Slack, where Yvonne and I are talking through throughout the week with a bunch of our listeners and yeah, no highlight from the Slack this time, right Yvonne?
|
Ivan:
[2:30:26]
| Uh well if you.
|
Sam:
[2:30:29]
| Don't have to we've gone on a long time.
|
Ivan:
[2:30:32]
| But if you have something that's burning you up let me see we got something that's burning me up I you know anything that's burning me up uh, uh uh uh, i i oh oh that somebody thought that an app that generated recipes with ai was a good idea and it it created this delicious look looking spicy roasted cat with sweet sweet chili glaze well.
|
Sam:
[2:31:11]
| As we know they're eating the cats they're eating the dogs.
|
Ivan:
[2:31:13]
| Well i mean that's what once you adds, you know, those ingredients that, you know, it's, it's, yeah, makes it quite more appetizing.
|
Sam:
[2:31:22]
| Okay. Thank you for that, Yvonne. Very good. The last thing to say is that next week will be another one of our special shows next week absent some huge event. Like a few years ago, we had to like delay it because of January 6th, 2021, but next week will be our review of our 2024 predictions to see how we did. And so tune into that as well. Hey, everybody have a great week and a happy new year. And we'll be here for our predictions review next week. And then the week after that for more new stuff. And then by the end of January, we'll be into the second Trump presidency. So there you go. Okay. I'm going to, I'm going to hit the exit music now. Goodbye.
|
Ivan:
[2:32:12]
| Bye.
|
Sam:
[2:32:41]
| You folks listening can't see but for the last few minutes as i've been trying to close out the show, yvonne's been changing the background behind him every few seconds you know got jack nicholson then we've got lucy from peanuts then we've got various buildings all kinds of other random crap and i've been having to keep myself from laughing as he's doing this so just thought i'd tell you guys now Anyway, I'm hitting stop now once he stops laughing. There we go. Bye, folks.
|
