WEBVTT

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<v Ivan>Hello?

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<v Sam>Hey.

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<v Ivan>Rise and shine!

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<v Sam>Shining, rising...

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<v Sam>There we go. Beep. Yes, it has not risen to the level of attention yet.

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<v Sam>You know, you notice because it's the closest one to here. Like,

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<v Sam>when it's the ones downstairs, you don't notice.

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<v Ivan>Well, yeah, well, the other night,

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<v Ivan>a couple of weeks ago, in the middle of the night, the one in our master bedroom

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<v Ivan>at five something in the morning beeped a couple of times.

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<v Sam>I think you mentioned this and Juana made you get up and fix it right then at that second.

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<v Ivan>No, no, no, no. I mentioned in the past.

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<v Sam>If it had happened.

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<v Ivan>She would get to it. But then after we had that conversation, it happened.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>But here's the thing. It didn't beep again. And I'm really confused with what

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<v Ivan>the fuck happened with it.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>I mean, it just... Did it...

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<v Ivan>And then didn't do it again.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>It's been weeks.

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<v Sam>It decided it was okay after all. Or maybe it just died completely.

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<v Sam>No longer enough energy even to beep.

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<v Ivan>Well, these have like an electrical connection.

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<v Sam>Yeah, yeah.

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<v Ivan>As well as the battery.

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<v Sam>Right.

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<v Ivan>I'm wondering if there was a power flicker or something and it's just...

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<v Sam>Flicker.

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<v Ivan>Yeah. Anyway, but I thought that was curious.

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<v Sam>Ah, yes.

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<v Ivan>I noticed that you had not put any topics. I have put some topics.

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<v Sam>I, yeah, I, yeah, it was, I was distracted this week, I guess. I don't know.

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<v Sam>But, yeah. Okay.

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<v Sam>Shall we go? Beep. Is that a yes?

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<v Ivan>Yes. I think it was answering for me.

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<v Sam>Oh, okay, okay, here we go.

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<v Sam>Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, March 14th, 2026.

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<v Sam>It's just after 17 UTC as we're starting to record. And I have two things to say about that.

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<v Sam>One, it's 17 instead of 18 because of clock changes and savings time and all that kind of stuff.

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<v Sam>So we're actually doing this earlier than we normally do it when we do it on a Saturday.

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<v Sam>And so let me just, that is our abbreviated version of the daylight savings time rant.

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<v Sam>We don't have to like get deeper. And second is, of course, it is March 14th, which means it is Pi Day.

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<v Ivan>Oh, it's Pi Day. Yay.

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<v Sam>Pi Day. Yes, indeed.

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<v Ivan>I mean, pretty soon it will be 15 hours.

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<v Sam>Yes.

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<v Ivan>So it'd be, you know, 3.14.

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<v Ivan>Oh, well, on Eastern time, I guess. Yeah, true. 17. Yeah, we missed that.

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<v Sam>Oh, well. Anyway, Pi Day. Go get yourself some pie.

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<v Sam>You know, I'm not a big actual fan of pie. Like, cake is fine,

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<v Sam>but I'm not a big fan of pie. They're very, you know, I'll occasionally have

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<v Sam>some pie, but it's not my favorite thing.

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<v Ivan>Well, there is one pie that is one of my favorites. The pecan pie.

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<v Sam>I will say that the pecan pie. I can't say I have a mental, like,

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<v Sam>you say pecan pie, and I'm sure I've had it at least once in my past,

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<v Sam>but I cannot bring to mind what that tastes or even looks like.

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<v Ivan>Like Publix, the supermarket chain here in Florida, makes a fantastic pecan pie.

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<v Ivan>And so the thing is that Publix has these desserts that they have pre-made.

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<v Ivan>They have like, if you go and say you're going to have a little party or something

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<v Ivan>or whatever, you want to pick up a dessert.

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<v Ivan>They'll have like a shelf with like freshly baked pecan pies or apple pies. Okay.

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<v Ivan>And a few other assorted things. But I have heard other people comment,

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<v Ivan>just like I have, that the pecan pie is superb. I have had it many times.

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<v Ivan>It is absolutely delicious. I am not one that usually will have a pecan pie from other places.

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<v Ivan>But that Publix pecan pie here is quite, quite spectacularly good.

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<v Sam>Very well.

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<v Ivan>My other favorite dessert is probably, I don't know, not so easy to get in Washington State.

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<v Ivan>But, I mean, usually the ones that I eat it either because I'm in Puerto Rico

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<v Ivan>and it's available at the restaurants or like my family makes it. A cheese flan.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>Not the regular flan, but the cheese flan.

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<v Sam>Cheese flan.

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<v Ivan>Yeah, and a cheese flan is, oh my God, that is just, that is, mmm, delicious.

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<v Ivan>And I don't know, a flan is not a pie.

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<v Ivan>I don't think it's considered a pie.

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<v Sam>Is it more like a pudding?

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<v Ivan>It's more like a custard.

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<v Sam>Yeah.

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<v Ivan>It's more like a custard.

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<v Sam>Yeah. Right. No crust.

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<v Ivan>Yeah, so, no, no crust. Yeah.

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<v Sam>Like that, the crust is what makes it a pie, right? You have a crust and then you put stuff inside it.

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<v Ivan>Right, exactly. Right. But no, it's not a pie. It's a custard. It's not a pie.

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<v Ivan>But you get the opportunity to try a cheese flan.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>I highly recommend it.

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<v Sam>I will keep this in mind next time someone is offering cheese flan.

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<v Ivan>Or you're in a place that maybe, you know, all of a sudden could be,

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<v Ivan>you went to, you know, many, even though I think it's more, I'm not sure if

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<v Ivan>it's completely Puerto Rican, but it's very typical in Puerto.

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<v Ivan>Well, I don't know if there's a lot of shared foods that Cubans and Puerto Ricans have. Okay.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>I'm not sure if it's ours or theirs. I can't claim that.

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<v Ivan>Ownership for it. I'm not sure, but it's very typical in Puerto Rico.

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<v Ivan>But I'm not sure if we also share that with the Cubans.

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<v Sam>That's exciting. Anyway, our usual agenda, we'll talk about lighter stuff like

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<v Sam>cheese flan and pie at this beginning part of the show. I'll do a couple movies.

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<v Sam>Yvonne may bring up something else. And then after our first break,

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<v Sam>we'll talk about more strictly newsy stuff, newsy stuff.

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<v Ivan>Sam, so last week I got a call from someone that we both know in a panic.

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<v Sam>Oh, no, I know what this is going to be about.

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<v Ivan>Oh, I want it because all of a sudden they decided.

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<v Ivan>And I, you know, I had I had heard people having horror stories and,

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<v Ivan>trying to synchronize their files with Google Drive and losing data and it not being recoverable.

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<v Ivan>I can't remember from where I read it, but I know I read about this,

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<v Ivan>people online complaining about this.

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<v Ivan>And our non-tech savvy, very risk-averse mutual friend for some reason decided.

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<v Ivan>To try to synchronize all their files,

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<v Ivan>using Google Drive now just to be,

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<v Ivan>wait wait wait you can go into this later and then let me explain how this happened

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<v Ivan>you can talk about this later all of a sudden she calls me that there are all

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<v Ivan>these messages that all these files that she was freaking out about preserving,

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<v Ivan>were tossed in the trash.

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<v Ivan>The message said they were tossed in the trash.

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<v Ivan>Problem is that when you clicked on the message that said that they're in the

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<v Ivan>trash, and they weren't in the trash, okay?

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<v Ivan>The fucking message kept saying, oh, all the photos are in the trash.

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<v Ivan>You go in the trash. Nothing in the fucking trash. I mean, nothing, nothing.

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<v Sam>Mm-hmm.

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<v Ivan>I was driving. She is screaming. I just, I.

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<v Sam>So you sent her.

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<v Ivan>And then I go, no, no, no, I did not. Okay. I did not.

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<v Sam>Okay.

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<v Ivan>What happened is, look, I was on the phone with her an hour and a half.

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<v Ivan>And on the screen, the thing is that the first thing I think is,

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<v Ivan>well, you're Mrs. Backup. Where's your backups?

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<v Ivan>Oh, yeah, I got the drive. It's sitting right beside the computer. It's not plugged in.

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<v Ivan>I'm like, fuck. Fuck. Fuck.

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<v Ivan>Lesson number one a time machine backup drive doesn't do backups unless you

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<v Ivan>connect it and set it up to do the backups it can't it doesn't just it can't just sit to.

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<v Sam>Be clear it wasn't it wasn't just sitting there it was still in the box unopened if i.

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<v Ivan>Understand the box unopened yes in the box unopened doesn't do anything. Okay.

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<v Ivan>So she has an old computer and I'm like, that was connected and synchronized.

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<v Ivan>I thought, Hey, let's pull the time machine backup from that computer.

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<v Ivan>Well, the backup was from October.

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<v Ivan>I, I was actually, look, I spent a lot of time looking at it,

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<v Ivan>I knew the files had, some had to be hidden somewhere.

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<v Ivan>Because I went into the recents, and many of the files appeared in the recents listed.

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<v Ivan>And I went and I'm like, show me the folder where they are.

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<v Ivan>And it would open the folder and show the file, but only that one file that

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<v Ivan>recents had, not the rest of them.

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<v Ivan>It was really weird. So I'm realizing, look, there's something here where these

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<v Ivan>files have been made invisible somewhere for some reason, at least a good number of them.

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<v Ivan>But I did not send her to her. It said to her, what happened is that I did.

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<v Ivan>I was like, you are in an earlier time zone than I am.

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<v Ivan>I was, it was getting very late. I was at my parents' house.

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<v Ivan>I, I, I'm like, I was with Manu the day that I took, that we took his cast off.

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<v Ivan>Okay. Just last week, Manu got his cast off from surgery. Okay.

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<v Ivan>So he's recovering very well.

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<v Ivan>And I, I'm like, look, my last, my last thing was, you know what?

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<v Ivan>Let me tell you something. I think you're fucked.

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<v Ivan>And the easiest thing to do is just to restore what you have from October.

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<v Ivan>And then try to figure out what you're missing. Okay? And I've had to do this before with a backup.

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<v Ivan>I once, like, lost stuff. And the backup was a week or two old.

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<v Ivan>And I just had, you know what? Look, I lost some stuff from recently.

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<v Ivan>But I have to go back to that backup. And do the best with the rest that disappeared.

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<v Ivan>You know? It is what it is.

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<v Ivan>That's where I left it. I did not.

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<v Ivan>Direct you to. But she did say, at some point she was going to talk to you,

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<v Ivan>and I was like, well, it's getting very late.

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<v Ivan>You're in earlier times, so I figured you could help. So what did you manage to do.

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<v Sam>Sam?

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<v Ivan>Did you manage to find these files?

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<v Sam>Well, I found some. Here's a few additional things.

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<v Sam>So first of all, to be fair to her as much as I can, the...

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<v Sam>Look, what her thought process was she was installing Google Drive for something

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<v Sam>else in order to access some files.

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<v Sam>And it offered her the opportunity to also sync her desktop and her documents folders.

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<v Sam>And she's like, awesome, an additional backup of those things.

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<v Ivan>Yes.

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<v Sam>So I will turn those off.

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<v Ivan>Yeah, but here's the thing. And this is where my thing that got,

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<v Ivan>I'm like, here's the thing. she has always been so cautious about doing anything.

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<v Sam>Right well so he i.

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<v Ivan>I was like so wait what that was offered you've asked about every fucking thing multiple times.

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<v Sam>So why.

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<v Ivan>Didn't you ask if that was a good.

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<v Sam>Idea yeah yeah so here's the thing yeah fundamentally and

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<v Sam>and people get this screwed up all the time iCloud

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<v Sam>and Google Drive and these things are not

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<v Sam>backups they're not backups they are

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<v Sam>not backups they are they synchronize and

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<v Sam>whenever you have something synchronizing that means

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<v Sam>if something gets removed from

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<v Sam>one of the locations it gets removed from all of them so in some senses it actually

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<v Sam>makes your stuff less secure you know now it's distributed they have it in multiple

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<v Sam>it's safer against some kinds of things but what it's not safe and.

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<v Ivan>Listen it's safer against like i've had the the experience where say my computer died right.

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<v Sam>Yes it is safer What it is not safer against is something getting removed.

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<v Sam>Like you actually, you accidentally delete a file or you move something or,

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<v Sam>you know, cause, cause then it will propagate what you have just done everywhere else.

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<v Ivan>Yeah. Oh, it's removed. Oh, great. Let's delete it everywhere. Everywhere.

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<v Sam>Exactly.

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<v Sam>And also just as a general thing, I mean, it's much, much better than it used to.

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<v Sam>But synchronization used to

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<v Sam>be kind of iffy, you know, like it would sometimes work and sometimes not.

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<v Sam>It now is fairly reliable as long as you're syncing with one thing.

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<v Sam>Once you are trying to sync with multiple things at the same time,

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<v Sam>they can still get confused in a variety of different ways.

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<v Sam>So and by the way I will continue the story from where you left it off but I

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<v Sam>will not be able to finish it because she the last update I had from her was

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<v Sam>yesterday afternoon and there was more that she was going to,

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<v Sam>try to deal with tonight okay um so anyway here's the thing i i looked in a

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<v Sam>bunch of places and i was like it it looks like you know it looks like stuff

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<v Sam>is really gone okay yeah that's what.

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<v Ivan>I that was my thing i kept going into different.

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<v Sam>Places you know it should but stuff.

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<v Ivan>Should be and.

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<v Sam>Nothing was there the one weirdness that

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<v Sam>i noticed that led me somewhere and like i

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<v Sam>also spent several hours on on the phone and on

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<v Sam>screen share with her okay okay um you know so that so i am significantly abbreviating

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<v Sam>this story but one thing that i i noticed at one point that got me suspicious

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<v Sam>there were a bunch of empty folders that nevertheless reported they had multiple gigabytes in them.

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<v Ivan>Oh what the fuck.

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<v Sam>So you would look at finder and the folder would say you know seven gigabytes

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<v Sam>or whatever in the folder but you went in and.

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<v Ivan>There was no no files showing up.

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<v Sam>Right exactly so i i

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<v Sam>had looked at a variety of different things and i was like

00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:45.440
<v Sam>okay and also at the moment we later got it to work but at the moment i could

00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:53.840
<v Sam>not get her screen sharing to let me have control so i'd been reluctant to try

00:16:53.840 --> 00:16:58.560
<v Sam>this earlier but i'm like okay i i need i need you to go into terminal.

00:16:58.560 --> 00:16:58.780
<v Ivan>You need control.

00:17:00.820 --> 00:17:02.900
<v Ivan>Oh, you had her go into terminal. Okay.

00:17:03.160 --> 00:17:05.640
<v Sam>Right. But I couldn't type. Okay.

00:17:05.700 --> 00:17:05.960
<v Ivan>Right.

00:17:06.540 --> 00:17:10.980
<v Sam>So I had her go into terminal and I was, you know,

00:17:11.580 --> 00:17:18.460
<v Sam>saying out loud, okay, now type L S space hyphen L A space.

00:17:18.840 --> 00:17:23.760
<v Sam>And now I'm going to need you to, I'm going to need the path to a directory.

00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:29.060
<v Sam>But luckily I knew, you know, you can drag that from finder into terminal instead

00:17:29.060 --> 00:17:32.020
<v Sam>of typing it. So I'd have her find the folder.

00:17:32.360 --> 00:17:32.740
<v Ivan>Okay.

00:17:33.100 --> 00:17:37.620
<v Sam>Yeah. So like, if you've got a folder or a file in finder that you want to access

00:17:37.620 --> 00:17:41.360
<v Sam>in terminal, you can just drag that into terminal and the name of it will show up good.

00:17:41.360 --> 00:17:41.920
<v Ivan>To know i.

00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:42.800
<v Sam>Didn't realize.

00:17:42.800 --> 00:17:43.520
<v Ivan>Okay all right.

00:17:43.520 --> 00:17:49.600
<v Sam>So i had her do that i started looking and then i saw like i listed the directory

00:17:49.600 --> 00:17:56.700
<v Sam>of one of the empty directories and boom it's full of files whoa so i had her

00:17:56.700 --> 00:17:59.820
<v Sam>copy one of the files onto,

00:18:00.400 --> 00:18:05.420
<v Sam>i had her plug in an external drive you know copy it onto there and check it

00:18:05.420 --> 00:18:07.360
<v Sam>and it was there The file opened.

00:18:07.460 --> 00:18:10.520
<v Sam>It was successfully there. So I'm like, Oh.

00:18:11.000 --> 00:18:11.880
<v Ivan>Fucking hell.

00:18:12.140 --> 00:18:21.280
<v Sam>I'm like, okay, let's do this then. So I set her up from terminal to copy documents,

00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:27.220
<v Sam>desktop, and like one other place recursively, just copy everything it could

00:18:27.220 --> 00:18:29.220
<v Sam>find onto the external drive.

00:18:29.520 --> 00:18:32.440
<v Sam>Now this was going to take many hours. It would run overnight.

00:18:32.440 --> 00:18:35.060
<v Sam>So I let it run overnight, but I warned her as well.

00:18:35.180 --> 00:18:39.280
<v Sam>Like, Because we spot-checked a few things. There are still some things missing.

00:18:39.640 --> 00:18:43.860
<v Sam>And here is the other thing. And this applies to the time machine backups,

00:18:43.940 --> 00:18:45.460
<v Sam>because we ended up checking this as well.

00:18:46.280 --> 00:18:49.620
<v Sam>And, you know, if any of our listeners know better, feel free to chime in,

00:18:49.720 --> 00:18:53.660
<v Sam>because maybe Apple's gotten smarter. But it used to be the case.

00:18:55.190 --> 00:18:59.890
<v Sam>ICloud also does not play well with Time Machine, okay?

00:19:00.290 --> 00:19:06.070
<v Sam>Because fundamentally, Time Machine will only back up the files that are actually

00:19:06.070 --> 00:19:09.130
<v Sam>on your hard drive at any given time.

00:19:10.110 --> 00:19:12.490
<v Ivan>You mean, okay, so let me see if I understand what,

00:19:13.320 --> 00:19:17.720
<v Ivan>What you mean by this, because you've got an option for Time Machine,

00:19:18.140 --> 00:19:24.380
<v Ivan>I mean, for iCloud Drive to either optimize your storage or to have all the

00:19:24.380 --> 00:19:26.480
<v Ivan>files copied in both places.

00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:27.120
<v Sam>Yes.

00:19:27.220 --> 00:19:31.660
<v Ivan>Are you saying that if you're in optimized storage mode, basically,

00:19:31.900 --> 00:19:37.560
<v Ivan>if the file is not, there's just an alias, but not the file, it won't get backed up?

00:19:37.980 --> 00:19:38.500
<v Sam>Correct.

00:19:38.960 --> 00:19:39.380
<v Ivan>Okay.

00:19:40.040 --> 00:19:45.120
<v Sam>So, and on her old machine, which was... It was set to optimize.

00:19:45.400 --> 00:19:47.900
<v Sam>It was set to optimize because there just wasn't enough space for everything.

00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:48.900
<v Ivan>There just wasn't enough space.

00:19:49.100 --> 00:19:54.440
<v Sam>Her new machine was set to download everything. But it hadn't finished.

00:19:54.520 --> 00:19:56.400
<v Sam>But the time machine backup had never been attached to it.

00:19:56.740 --> 00:20:01.240
<v Ivan>Correct. And also, it hadn't finished downloading everything.

00:20:01.500 --> 00:20:01.600
<v Sam>Correct.

00:20:01.600 --> 00:20:06.760
<v Ivan>Because her connection is not that fast either. So, yeah. Yeah.

00:20:07.300 --> 00:20:12.940
<v Sam>So, so anyway, so I was like, look, when we're going to copy over all of this

00:20:12.940 --> 00:20:16.020
<v Sam>stuff, but there's still clearly stuff missing.

00:20:16.800 --> 00:20:22.860
<v Sam>So we, we caught, you know, it went overnight. I talked to her briefly in the morning.

00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:27.940
<v Sam>She confirmed lots and lots of stuff was there, but there were things missing.

00:20:27.940 --> 00:20:33.100
<v Sam>You know there were things that just weren't there and then we checked her backups

00:20:33.100 --> 00:20:43.560
<v Sam>from like october same well same thing but the the problem is there because that one was on optimize,

00:20:44.400 --> 00:20:51.080
<v Sam>right just the fact that it wasn't in the most recent time machine backup doesn't

00:20:51.080 --> 00:20:53.220
<v Sam>mean it's not in any Time Machine backup.

00:20:53.520 --> 00:20:58.620
<v Sam>Because, you know, Time Machine lets you, you can look at last week's backup

00:20:58.620 --> 00:21:00.340
<v Sam>or the week before or the week after.

00:21:00.520 --> 00:21:06.000
<v Sam>So it's very well possible that some file might be in the backup from two years

00:21:06.000 --> 00:21:07.320
<v Sam>ago, but not the backup from last week.

00:21:07.320 --> 00:21:09.120
<v Ivan>Right, but not in a recent one. That's right, correct.

00:21:09.200 --> 00:21:14.720
<v Sam>So like to fully search for this stuff, you would have to comprehensively look

00:21:14.720 --> 00:21:18.100
<v Sam>through all the backups, not just the most recent one.

00:21:18.840 --> 00:21:26.080
<v Sam>Okay um and so i was like look i'll help you do that if if i have to so but

00:21:26.080 --> 00:21:33.080
<v Sam>i was like look your next step i'm sorry just just call apple like hope and pray,

00:21:34.500 --> 00:21:40.300
<v Sam>that they have a backup of your iCloud from before you corrupted it okay because

00:21:40.300 --> 00:21:44.540
<v Sam>and i guess we didn't say explicitly what happened was when she turned on iCloud

00:21:44.540 --> 00:21:49.180
<v Sam>the google sync Like, it just started deleting all kinds of crap.

00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:55.640
<v Sam>My best guess was it was deleting stuff that wasn't locally present on her Mac

00:21:55.640 --> 00:21:58.180
<v Sam>and making it not present anywhere.

00:21:58.800 --> 00:22:01.420
<v Sam>Like, it was deleting those aliases or something.

00:22:01.880 --> 00:22:02.500
<v Ivan>Yeah, okay.

00:22:02.720 --> 00:22:06.880
<v Sam>That's a complete guess. I don't know. I don't know exactly what was happening,

00:22:07.060 --> 00:22:08.500
<v Sam>but things were disappearing.

00:22:09.820 --> 00:22:14.840
<v Sam>And just hope that Apple actually has a backup. I'm sure this happens to people

00:22:14.840 --> 00:22:18.180
<v Sam>and they do whatever. Anyway, she eventually did call them.

00:22:19.060 --> 00:22:23.680
<v Sam>And we had checked, by the way, online on iCloud.com. We'd looked at it recently

00:22:23.680 --> 00:22:25.020
<v Sam>deleted. There was nothing there.

00:22:25.600 --> 00:22:30.420
<v Sam>But what Apple told her, hey, look, we used to do this all the time.

00:22:30.540 --> 00:22:36.000
<v Sam>We used to like, you know, we actually kept things for 30 days and we could

00:22:36.000 --> 00:22:38.160
<v Sam>restore. But we don't do that anymore.

00:22:40.540 --> 00:22:46.280
<v Sam>But, but they said the reason we don't do it anymore is because we made it available

00:22:46.280 --> 00:22:47.720
<v Sam>directly in iCloud.com.

00:22:48.600 --> 00:22:51.500
<v Sam>There is a restore feature.

00:22:52.750 --> 00:22:56.370
<v Sam>That, and we don't guarantee how long things will be available.

00:22:57.250 --> 00:23:01.350
<v Sam>Like it might, it might be a couple of weeks. It might be a few days,

00:23:01.410 --> 00:23:04.370
<v Sam>but as soon as possible, go check there.

00:23:04.810 --> 00:23:09.050
<v Sam>And I'd looked at the recently deleted, but I had not known to go look for a store.

00:23:09.690 --> 00:23:13.550
<v Ivan>I did not. And she, she actually texted and asked me that. And I'm like,

00:23:13.630 --> 00:23:15.710
<v Ivan>I, I'm like, I said, I didn't know about this.

00:23:16.770 --> 00:23:21.030
<v Sam>So, so that That is the thing that she theoretically is going to be trying tonight

00:23:21.030 --> 00:23:26.690
<v Sam>and, and will be potentially screen sharing me again to see.

00:23:26.950 --> 00:23:32.070
<v Sam>And I'm like, well, cross your fingers, hope it's there because like,

00:23:32.470 --> 00:23:36.910
<v Sam>then, then you just like, you know, restore everything to the state it was in

00:23:36.910 --> 00:23:38.530
<v Sam>like three days ago or something.

00:23:39.070 --> 00:23:43.410
<v Sam>Of course, with her luck, there will have been a new backup made after the things

00:23:43.410 --> 00:23:46.290
<v Sam>were deleted and you can't get to the old backup or something like that.

00:23:46.870 --> 00:23:53.090
<v Sam>Um, Anyway, we'll see. But, you know, the moral of the story,

00:23:53.250 --> 00:23:58.130
<v Sam>as always, is backups are not backups unless you test or restore.

00:23:58.890 --> 00:24:03.850
<v Sam>And you have to take them seriously. And you have to sort of understand where

00:24:03.850 --> 00:24:05.210
<v Sam>things are going and why.

00:24:05.790 --> 00:24:11.110
<v Sam>And synchronization is not backup. It's not the same thing. and I'll say,

00:24:11.290 --> 00:24:14.490
<v Sam>I'm pretty obsessive about this too, but I have gaps too.

00:24:14.670 --> 00:24:19.290
<v Sam>Like I was just, I was going through an exercise the other day.

00:24:19.810 --> 00:24:24.730
<v Ivan>Here it is. I just, by the way, I just went to iCloud.com and I just saw this

00:24:24.730 --> 00:24:28.670
<v Ivan>and they do have this very prominent thing there that is called data recovery.

00:24:28.950 --> 00:24:33.530
<v Ivan>And it says, recover files deleted from both iCloud Drive and other apps within

00:24:33.530 --> 00:24:38.370
<v Ivan>the last 30 days or restore an earlier version of your calendar contacts and Safari bookmarks.

00:24:38.990 --> 00:24:39.370
<v Sam>Nice.

00:24:39.610 --> 00:24:41.210
<v Ivan>Huh. And it's...

00:24:42.870 --> 00:24:43.250
<v Ivan>Okay.

00:24:44.010 --> 00:24:49.010
<v Sam>Now, I will mention one other thing with her scenario, and I'm sure we've bored everybody.

00:24:49.270 --> 00:24:52.250
<v Sam>But, like, apparently there was stuff that was on Google.

00:24:52.250 --> 00:24:54.550
<v Ivan>Well, we have a lot of nerds that listen to us.

00:24:54.610 --> 00:24:58.690
<v Sam>Yeah. So what the fuck? But apparently there was also stuff on Google Drive.

00:24:58.910 --> 00:25:03.190
<v Sam>She apparently is on three Google Drives.

00:25:03.190 --> 00:25:07.430
<v Sam>One is a personal drive, and then there's one for one organization she's involved

00:25:07.430 --> 00:25:09.910
<v Sam>in, and there's another for another organization she's involved in.

00:25:09.910 --> 00:25:14.630
<v Sam>She connected all three of them and told all three of them to sync. Okay.

00:25:15.410 --> 00:25:21.570
<v Sam>And apparently things that were on those Google drives for those organizations

00:25:21.570 --> 00:25:26.650
<v Sam>that had nothing to do with her personal files also have gotten deleted.

00:25:27.090 --> 00:25:31.550
<v Sam>And I have no idea what was going on there or what to do about that.

00:25:31.770 --> 00:25:36.890
<v Ivan>The thing is, I'm telling you right now, I had heard horror stories about the

00:25:36.890 --> 00:25:39.370
<v Ivan>fucking Google drive synchronization.

00:25:39.370 --> 00:25:45.930
<v Ivan>I probably shouldn't look for it online, but I had heard these and how it just

00:25:45.930 --> 00:25:48.590
<v Ivan>basically made shit just disappear.

00:25:49.670 --> 00:25:53.370
<v Ivan>And people were very frustrated that, you know, you would contact Google and

00:25:53.370 --> 00:25:56.150
<v Ivan>whatever. And even though they say a whole bunch of different things about,

00:25:56.290 --> 00:26:00.130
<v Ivan>well, you can do this, do that to restore. How basically you just couldn't.

00:26:00.410 --> 00:26:04.630
<v Ivan>It was it was a waste of time. Well, you just lost the stuff.

00:26:05.070 --> 00:26:12.810
<v Sam>Anyway, what I was going to say about myself is I am also fairly uptight about backups.

00:26:13.670 --> 00:26:18.990
<v Ivan>I know. And that's the thing that gets me. She is very uptight about all these fucking backups.

00:26:18.990 --> 00:26:23.330
<v Sam>But let me say, let me say, I, I, I am missing stuff anyway.

00:26:24.170 --> 00:26:28.030
<v Sam>Um, because, because of, you know, every once in a while I slip up,

00:26:28.170 --> 00:26:29.990
<v Sam>like, I'll, I'll tell you what I was doing recently.

00:26:30.670 --> 00:26:36.270
<v Sam>I was trying, I, I, I've developed, I set up a new way of doing stats for curmudgeon's

00:26:36.270 --> 00:26:37.510
<v Sam>corner downloads. Okay.

00:26:37.830 --> 00:26:43.250
<v Sam>And I was going to be like, okay, I will reconstruct the entire history all

00:26:43.250 --> 00:26:47.710
<v Sam>the way back to 2007 using this. I just have to like, you know,

00:26:48.430 --> 00:26:50.830
<v Sam>have it analyze the old log files.

00:26:50.970 --> 00:26:56.730
<v Sam>So I went looking for all my old backup log, backed up log files of curmudgeons

00:26:56.730 --> 00:26:59.470
<v Sam>corner download logs going back to 2007.

00:26:59.730 --> 00:27:02.470
<v Sam>Well, guess what? I've got gaps.

00:27:03.280 --> 00:27:10.120
<v Sam>Like, basically, 2007 and 2008, I have no record of whatsoever. Can't find them at all.

00:27:10.640 --> 00:27:18.640
<v Sam>In 2018 or 19 or something like that, I've got, like, a six-month gap, you know?

00:27:18.800 --> 00:27:28.200
<v Sam>And these are all places where I know what happened is at one period of time or another, I got slack.

00:27:28.280 --> 00:27:32.740
<v Sam>There was something that wasn't working, and I didn't. And I probably had an

00:27:32.740 --> 00:27:37.920
<v Sam>alarm going that told me, hey, your backup's old, your backup's old, your backup's old.

00:27:38.920 --> 00:27:43.860
<v Sam>And I'm backing up the log files from the server that only keeps them for like a few weeks.

00:27:44.300 --> 00:27:47.160
<v Sam>And I let it go more than a few weeks before I fixed it.

00:27:47.300 --> 00:27:53.700
<v Sam>And so a gap ensued, you know, and so I can't reconstruct the entire history.

00:27:53.920 --> 00:27:56.820
<v Sam>I can reconstruct most of it, but I've got a few gaps.

00:27:56.820 --> 00:27:59.820
<v Sam>And i know other things over the years have

00:27:59.820 --> 00:28:02.720
<v Sam>probably gotten gone missing and there have been gaps at various

00:28:02.720 --> 00:28:05.600
<v Sam>points and there there was one

00:28:05.600 --> 00:28:08.560
<v Sam>time uh recently i i you know

00:28:08.560 --> 00:28:13.460
<v Sam>i i probably never gave the follow-up on this there was one of alex's drives

00:28:13.460 --> 00:28:19.420
<v Sam>that you know he keeps his videos on for his youtube channel that the drive

00:28:19.420 --> 00:28:27.760
<v Sam>died okay um but and i'm like it's okay i have backups I went to check the backup.

00:28:28.060 --> 00:28:33.860
<v Sam>The backup was old. The backup had like, was missing...

00:28:34.490 --> 00:28:38.830
<v Sam>I actually went, I paid to restore the backup. The backup ended up having about

00:28:38.830 --> 00:28:40.910
<v Sam>half of what I expected on it.

00:28:41.290 --> 00:28:44.590
<v Sam>And I was like, oh crap, there's a bunch of stuff missing.

00:28:45.150 --> 00:28:49.610
<v Sam>And what am I going to do? So I looked into like disk recovery services.

00:28:49.610 --> 00:28:54.450
<v Sam>So I'm like, I'm going to like, I'm going to actually send this disk off,

00:28:54.610 --> 00:28:59.490
<v Sam>do disk recovery. One place gave me an estimate, but it was like insanely high.

00:28:59.670 --> 00:29:00.850
<v Sam>It was like thousands of dollars.

00:29:01.190 --> 00:29:05.090
<v Sam>And I'm like, I cannot justify thousands of dollars for this right now.

00:29:05.290 --> 00:29:11.610
<v Sam>I found some other place that was like going to be like less.

00:29:12.230 --> 00:29:15.530
<v Sam>It was still expensive. Okay. It was still many hundreds of dollars,

00:29:15.570 --> 00:29:18.450
<v Sam>but it was three digits and not four. Okay.

00:29:18.730 --> 00:29:23.510
<v Sam>And I'm like, okay, maybe we can consider this, but I will hold off for a little

00:29:23.510 --> 00:29:25.970
<v Sam>bit. I did a little bit of more research, different places.

00:29:26.110 --> 00:29:29.250
<v Sam>The place I got that had the multi-thousand dollar estimate,

00:29:29.250 --> 00:29:33.610
<v Sam>I found out had an online reputation of just gouging people for like,

00:29:33.810 --> 00:29:37.150
<v Sam>people are desperate for their data, so we're going to charge them a lot more.

00:29:37.350 --> 00:29:40.890
<v Sam>And there are other services that'll do the same thing at the same quality for

00:29:40.890 --> 00:29:42.210
<v Sam>better prices, et cetera.

00:29:42.590 --> 00:29:45.550
<v Sam>And so I did some research and I was finally ready.

00:29:46.670 --> 00:29:53.950
<v Sam>And it had been, it had been probably at this point, two to three years since the drive had died.

00:29:54.110 --> 00:29:57.250
<v Sam>And I was like, okay, I'm finally ready. I'm going to send this sucker in.

00:29:57.650 --> 00:30:03.210
<v Sam>And on a whim, I'm like, let me plug it in one more time just to see.

00:30:03.490 --> 00:30:05.370
<v Ivan>Oh, get the fuck out of here. It worked.

00:30:05.530 --> 00:30:09.410
<v Sam>It worked. And I'm like, holy fuck.

00:30:09.590 --> 00:30:11.910
<v Sam>And I immediately started copying

00:30:11.910 --> 00:30:16.410
<v Sam>everything off that drive onto a fresh drive. I restored everything.

00:30:17.730 --> 00:30:22.110
<v Sam>You know, it just needed a little rest. It was tired.

00:30:22.470 --> 00:30:23.590
<v Ivan>It was tired, Sam.

00:30:24.070 --> 00:30:24.550
<v Sam>Exactly.

00:30:25.070 --> 00:30:25.890
<v Ivan>You know, we're all tired.

00:30:26.350 --> 00:30:33.850
<v Sam>You know, and I had been, I had tried multiple, before I even thought about

00:30:33.850 --> 00:30:37.030
<v Sam>I'm going to restore to drive, I'm going to send it to disk recovery, whatever.

00:30:37.270 --> 00:30:40.830
<v Sam>I have, of course, tried everything. I had tried everything.

00:30:40.930 --> 00:30:41.310
<v Ivan>That's absolutely hilarious.

00:30:41.650 --> 00:30:46.510
<v Sam>You know, but like three years later, I plugged the drive in and kaboom, it's there.

00:30:47.190 --> 00:30:56.270
<v Sam>Holy shit anyway I got everything that's hilarious anyway okay whoa it's been

00:30:56.270 --> 00:30:59.210
<v Sam>30 minutes should I even do movies should we move on.

00:31:00.190 --> 00:31:05.690
<v Ivan>We could skip the movies for this week we did a whole bunch of movies let's go I.

00:31:05.690 --> 00:31:13.970
<v Sam>Will preview what they will be for next time Murder by Death from 1976 have you heard of it.

00:31:15.390 --> 00:31:17.210
<v Ivan>I've heard of it but I don't.

00:31:17.210 --> 00:31:18.230
<v Sam>Think I've...

00:31:18.230 --> 00:31:20.830
<v Ivan>Who is the stars of this movie?

00:31:21.230 --> 00:31:26.230
<v Sam>Oh, let's see. Starring Eileen Brennan, Truman Capote, James Coco,

00:31:26.470 --> 00:31:29.970
<v Sam>Peter Falk, Alec Guinness, Elsa...

00:31:29.970 --> 00:31:31.890
<v Ivan>I've heard of it, but I don't remember it right now.

00:31:31.970 --> 00:31:33.670
<v Sam>Peter Sellers, Maggie Smith.

00:31:34.170 --> 00:31:37.890
<v Ivan>I probably watched it, but I don't remember it right now.

00:31:38.690 --> 00:31:39.170
<v Sam>Okay.

00:31:39.170 --> 00:31:44.050
<v Ivan>Now that you mention all the... Yeah, it rings a bell now that you read the actress list.

00:31:44.070 --> 00:31:51.330
<v Sam>And movie two, a small little movie that you have probably not heard of from 2002 yeah,

00:31:52.090 --> 00:31:54.210
<v Sam>Star Wars Episode II, Attack of the Clones.

00:31:55.030 --> 00:31:55.230
<v Ivan>Okay.

00:31:56.130 --> 00:31:57.330
<v Sam>Yeah, obscure.

00:31:58.830 --> 00:32:01.450
<v Ivan>Now, of course, that's a classic.

00:32:02.190 --> 00:32:06.650
<v Sam>Yes. Anyway, we'll save them for next week. Let's take a break.

00:32:06.870 --> 00:32:11.090
<v Sam>I once again owe an Apple dream that I did not do because I suck.

00:32:11.350 --> 00:32:15.130
<v Sam>So instead, you get some other random thing.

00:32:16.130 --> 00:32:20.850
<v Sam>And so here's a break, and we'll be back, and we'll talk newsy stuff. Back after this.

00:32:58.330 --> 00:33:01.150
<v Sam>And we are back. Welcome, Yvonne.

00:33:01.250 --> 00:33:08.610
<v Ivan>Okay, so, by the way, I did go in to the restore property there.

00:33:09.510 --> 00:33:11.570
<v Ivan>It's got a list of files that I deleted.

00:33:12.170 --> 00:33:12.770
<v Sam>Good.

00:33:13.210 --> 00:33:17.930
<v Ivan>Recently. Delete it March 8th. Delete it March 8th. Yeah.

00:33:19.270 --> 00:33:22.150
<v Ivan>It seems to be possible.

00:33:22.790 --> 00:33:23.390
<v Sam>Good.

00:33:23.670 --> 00:33:24.650
<v Ivan>That that could work.

00:33:25.530 --> 00:33:26.130
<v Sam>Yeah.

00:33:26.250 --> 00:33:34.030
<v Ivan>Okay. so okay crossing fingers cross yes let's cross fingers okay and.

00:33:34.030 --> 00:33:42.170
<v Sam>Toes whatever else yeah okay so what's our first actual serious thing of the uh week ivan.

00:33:42.170 --> 00:33:50.970
<v Ivan>Hey how's that iran war thing going sam what i mean some people were making

00:33:50.970 --> 00:33:57.250
<v Ivan>were making comments that it's a misnomer to call it the Iran War, but I am like...

00:33:57.250 --> 00:33:59.710
<v Ivan>I guess because Iran didn't start it.

00:33:59.910 --> 00:34:02.710
<v Ivan>Okay, I get that. Well, what should we call it?

00:34:03.110 --> 00:34:07.990
<v Sam>The War of Northern Aggression? Oh, no, wait, that was what the South called the Civil War.

00:34:10.450 --> 00:34:10.930
<v Sam>No.

00:34:12.250 --> 00:34:18.830
<v Ivan>I mean, it seems fitting, actually, but... The Trump War? The Trump-Epstein-Files War.

00:34:21.710 --> 00:34:28.990
<v Ivan>I like that name. This should be the Trump Epstein files distraction war. Yes.

00:34:29.970 --> 00:34:37.030
<v Sam>You know, on the one hand, I am fully on board with the idea that part of the

00:34:37.030 --> 00:34:39.310
<v Sam>motivation of this probably was distraction.

00:34:40.150 --> 00:34:46.070
<v Sam>But I think that also understates it. I think there...

00:34:48.810 --> 00:34:51.490
<v Sam>There, there's real stuff going on here.

00:34:51.570 --> 00:34:51.630
<v Ivan>I think it's a motivator.

00:34:51.950 --> 00:34:54.470
<v Sam>They're real, they're real people dying. It, it, it, you know.

00:34:54.650 --> 00:34:58.650
<v Ivan>No, no, no, but, but I'm not talking, I'm not trying to minimize that in any

00:34:58.650 --> 00:35:03.770
<v Ivan>way, but the, what I'm trying to do is like, the reality is that what is the

00:35:03.770 --> 00:35:06.710
<v Ivan>driver that caused this stupid thing,

00:35:07.050 --> 00:35:10.430
<v Ivan>this barbaric act to be done? I mean, there's a.

00:35:10.570 --> 00:35:12.950
<v Sam>I mean, one, one of them is that.

00:35:12.970 --> 00:35:20.750
<v Ivan>The other one is that he's, I don't know. Yeah. BB as well. Yeah. The BB War. There you go.

00:35:21.650 --> 00:35:25.150
<v Ivan>BB's Revenge and Destruction Tour.

00:35:25.570 --> 00:35:31.170
<v Sam>Look, in terms of how it's going, I think you've got...

00:35:32.100 --> 00:35:38.120
<v Sam>Different ways of looking at it. The administration would like you and the Israelis

00:35:38.120 --> 00:35:43.040
<v Sam>would like you to just judge it based on how much shit have we blown up.

00:35:44.920 --> 00:35:48.680
<v Sam>We've blown up a bunch of shit. Okay.

00:35:48.680 --> 00:35:52.180
<v Ivan>That's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, yeah, that we,

00:35:52.260 --> 00:35:56.100
<v Ivan>we, I mean, yeah, we've blown up a bunch of shit, Sam, like a lot.

00:35:56.960 --> 00:36:01.420
<v Sam>And, and, you know, Hey, that's a success in its own right. Right.

00:36:01.800 --> 00:36:04.960
<v Sam>And they can say once again, like they did a few months ago,

00:36:05.120 --> 00:36:09.320
<v Sam>that we have success as we've put them back decades. Let's be clear.

00:36:09.460 --> 00:36:13.800
<v Ivan>We're not saying that's a success. You're saying that they claim it's a success.

00:36:14.620 --> 00:36:19.420
<v Sam>Yeah. I mean, look, they can say just like they did a few months ago that they've

00:36:19.420 --> 00:36:22.400
<v Sam>ended Iran's military capabilities forever.

00:36:23.400 --> 00:36:25.040
<v Ivan>Forever, Sam. for.

00:36:25.040 --> 00:36:32.000
<v Sam>A few months anyway you know look and there's no question they killed a whole

00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:36.060
<v Sam>bunch of the leadership you know and in fact like one of the.

00:36:36.060 --> 00:36:44.560
<v Ivan>Yeah and and has that improved the the leadership of iran is it is it now uh

00:36:44.560 --> 00:36:50.660
<v Ivan>uh you know the kind of leadership that and i quote he he was saying And Iran's

00:36:50.660 --> 00:36:53.620
<v Ivan>leadership goes out on the streets and kills its own people.

00:36:53.700 --> 00:36:56.000
<v Ivan>And many people were saying, hey, is he talking about Minnesota?

00:36:56.000 --> 00:36:57.100
<v Ivan>Is he talking about Iran?

00:36:58.080 --> 00:37:01.940
<v Sam>Right. Well, before we even get there, let me state something else.

00:37:02.120 --> 00:37:05.780
<v Sam>We had talked about how much of the Iranian leadership was killed here.

00:37:05.780 --> 00:37:14.620
<v Sam>One of the things that came out about this is that there were people that we

00:37:14.620 --> 00:37:21.600
<v Sam>were actually thinking about as potential new leadership to take over that we

00:37:21.600 --> 00:37:22.940
<v Sam>thought we could work with better.

00:37:24.130 --> 00:37:25.630
<v Sam>We accidentally killed them, too.

00:37:26.370 --> 00:37:26.650
<v Ivan>Right.

00:37:27.310 --> 00:37:31.670
<v Sam>It's like we had people specifically pointed out that said, after we killed

00:37:31.670 --> 00:37:39.470
<v Sam>Ayatollah, hopefully this guy will become the leader and we think we can work with them. Oops.

00:37:39.570 --> 00:37:41.510
<v Ivan>We killed them, too. We killed them.

00:37:42.730 --> 00:37:49.490
<v Ivan>You know, a friend of mine sent me a, I think it was, it was actually today,

00:37:50.730 --> 00:37:55.690
<v Ivan>talking about the situation that the word of the day is fucktangular.

00:37:56.470 --> 00:37:57.610
<v Ivan>And it seems appropriate.

00:37:58.550 --> 00:38:04.670
<v Ivan>Yeah, fucktangular. And it's a noun. And the definition is when a situation isn't just messy.

00:38:05.090 --> 00:38:07.270
<v Ivan>It's fucked up from every angle.

00:38:07.950 --> 00:38:12.270
<v Ivan>You fix one problem and three more pop up. Likely they're awaiting their turn.

00:38:12.730 --> 00:38:17.650
<v Ivan>And this is, definitely, this fits the bill.

00:38:18.310 --> 00:38:24.270
<v Ivan>Because they think they fixed stuff. All they've made is everything way worse.

00:38:25.390 --> 00:38:28.970
<v Ivan>What is the improvement in the situation for the people of Iran?

00:38:29.630 --> 00:38:33.110
<v Ivan>None that I can see. Are we safer, Sam?

00:38:34.170 --> 00:38:36.150
<v Sam>I don't believe so.

00:38:36.710 --> 00:38:45.610
<v Ivan>Nope. Okay. Right. Have we achieved any tangible success that you could point

00:38:45.610 --> 00:38:50.190
<v Ivan>to other than the blowing up that you mentioned? We blew shit up and killed people.

00:38:50.870 --> 00:38:53.590
<v Ivan>Yeah, we blew shit up. Is that a success?

00:38:54.930 --> 00:39:00.690
<v Sam>Well, the problem is with answering that question is nobody's defined what the

00:39:00.690 --> 00:39:03.610
<v Sam>goals even are. So how can you measure whether or not...

00:39:04.190 --> 00:39:07.870
<v Ivan>Exactly. You don't even know what the fuck we're trying to accomplish.

00:39:08.170 --> 00:39:11.330
<v Ivan>So how the hell do you say that it's been...

00:39:14.310 --> 00:39:19.570
<v Ivan>And, okay, I mean, the other problem is, what's the endgame?

00:39:19.990 --> 00:39:22.230
<v Ivan>Like you said, nobody's set to success.

00:39:22.870 --> 00:39:26.390
<v Ivan>Nobody's defined an endgame. And like right now, we're just,

00:39:26.510 --> 00:39:29.130
<v Ivan>hey, we're just going to send more bombs.

00:39:29.950 --> 00:39:36.270
<v Ivan>Just more bombs. ah, okay, and what now?

00:39:37.350 --> 00:39:41.430
<v Ivan>And the other thing that shows the...

00:39:42.810 --> 00:39:52.250
<v Ivan>The number of dead U.S. military compared to other military campaigns that have

00:39:52.250 --> 00:39:56.930
<v Ivan>not involved boots on the ground is astoundingly high, okay?

00:39:57.870 --> 00:40:05.850
<v Ivan>The other thing is just, it is very obvious that we have, once again,

00:40:06.150 --> 00:40:11.430
<v Ivan>with this administration, they put in charge just people for their loyalty,

00:40:11.430 --> 00:40:12.550
<v Ivan>not for their knowledge.

00:40:12.810 --> 00:40:19.730
<v Ivan>They don't understand much of anything. They fail to prepare for any contingencies.

00:40:19.930 --> 00:40:25.650
<v Ivan>Because if you were going to attack Iran, what was the number one threat that

00:40:25.650 --> 00:40:27.170
<v Ivan>you should have prepared for?

00:40:27.930 --> 00:40:28.690
<v Sam>Clowns.

00:40:29.030 --> 00:40:30.910
<v Ivan>Oh, clowns. Oh.

00:40:33.830 --> 00:40:36.650
<v Ivan>Flying clowns? That would have been interesting.

00:40:37.630 --> 00:40:43.430
<v Sam>Yeah. The Iranians are known for their clown militias.

00:40:43.430 --> 00:40:44.910
<v Ivan>For the flying clown. Oh, wow.

00:40:45.910 --> 00:40:52.130
<v Ivan>Okay. Well, it's not the clowns. It's these dumbass fucking drones that they've

00:40:52.130 --> 00:40:53.630
<v Ivan>been selling the Russians.

00:40:53.810 --> 00:40:56.530
<v Sam>Oh, I thought you were going to say closing the Straits of Hormuz.

00:40:56.750 --> 00:40:58.190
<v Sam>Okay, we'll get to that in a second.

00:40:58.350 --> 00:41:04.290
<v Ivan>No, or the Strait of Hormuz. It's my theory decided. Yeah, the theory decided

00:41:04.290 --> 00:41:06.170
<v Ivan>that it's not the Strait of Hormuz.

00:41:06.530 --> 00:41:15.610
<v Ivan>It's the Strait as the S-D-R-A-I-G-H-T, Strait of Horror Moose.

00:41:15.910 --> 00:41:20.290
<v Ivan>I didn't realize that we had moose that were running in horror in the middle

00:41:20.290 --> 00:41:22.130
<v Ivan>of the water. But anyway.

00:41:22.790 --> 00:41:22.950
<v Sam>Right.

00:41:23.490 --> 00:41:28.370
<v Ivan>Well, no, the whole drone attack, which, by the way, also forced that closure.

00:41:28.570 --> 00:41:34.750
<v Ivan>But the reality is that you're launching million dollar missiles against $50,000

00:41:34.750 --> 00:41:36.690
<v Ivan>or cheaper fucking drones.

00:41:36.930 --> 00:41:42.430
<v Ivan>And that is just idiotic. I mean, the Ukrainians have developed,

00:41:42.570 --> 00:41:49.190
<v Ivan>obviously, much cheaper ways of defending these, and nobody prepared for it.

00:41:50.010 --> 00:41:53.550
<v Ivan>Nobody spent the minute preparing for it. You started this thing,

00:41:53.670 --> 00:41:57.310
<v Ivan>it's just asymmetrical. We send these massive bombs.

00:41:57.510 --> 00:42:04.970
<v Ivan>They counter with these smaller devices that are plentiful and cheap and can cause damage.

00:42:04.970 --> 00:42:08.690
<v Ivan>Obviously, not the same damage as these massive bombs that we sent.

00:42:08.690 --> 00:42:19.370
<v Ivan>But it doesn't need to be to to cause the fucking Strait of Hormuz to be closed.

00:42:19.530 --> 00:42:21.850
<v Ivan>I mean, you closed off the oil traffic.

00:42:22.230 --> 00:42:24.830
<v Ivan>Oil is now at over one hundred dollars a barrel.

00:42:25.250 --> 00:42:31.190
<v Ivan>They keep saying, oh, you know, what was Pete Hex that said?

00:42:31.810 --> 00:42:35.950
<v Ivan>Oh, yeah. I mean, you know, any ship can go through. The problem is just,

00:42:36.130 --> 00:42:39.670
<v Ivan>you know, the Iranians are shooting. I'm like, I don't know shit, Sherlock, really?

00:42:41.830 --> 00:42:45.390
<v Ivan>And I'm like, I don't know which tank or company.

00:42:46.860 --> 00:42:52.340
<v Ivan>Is going to go and say, you know, hey, let's just go through there anyway.

00:42:52.860 --> 00:42:56.180
<v Sam>Well, that's what Donald Trump said they should do. Just man up and go.

00:42:56.680 --> 00:43:01.860
<v Ivan>Man up and go. Yeah. Now, today, he said something about that.

00:43:02.200 --> 00:43:05.020
<v Ivan>Everybody should send their navies over there to reopen it.

00:43:05.160 --> 00:43:08.460
<v Ivan>And that doesn't that doesn't. I mean, just because we send a whole bunch of

00:43:08.460 --> 00:43:11.220
<v Ivan>military ships over there doesn't reopen it.

00:43:11.360 --> 00:43:15.160
<v Sam>I mean, the volume of ships. Wait, someone pointed out like in the past,

00:43:15.360 --> 00:43:21.780
<v Sam>like in the 80s, I believe we did have a situation where at one point the American

00:43:21.780 --> 00:43:24.660
<v Sam>Navy and some others escorted some tankers through the state.

00:43:24.880 --> 00:43:27.080
<v Ivan>But it wasn't it wasn't this kind of threat.

00:43:27.080 --> 00:43:32.800
<v Sam>Well, no, here's the thing. Here's the fundamental thing. The reason why having

00:43:32.800 --> 00:43:41.200
<v Sam>American warships around the shipping was protective was the Iranians would be like,

00:43:41.440 --> 00:43:43.760
<v Sam>oh, if we hit the Americans,

00:43:44.100 --> 00:43:48.440
<v Sam>then the Americans will attack us. And so it's a deterrent.

00:43:48.680 --> 00:43:49.320
<v Ivan>Right.

00:43:49.400 --> 00:43:53.200
<v Sam>The Americans are already attacking. There's no deterrent there anymore.

00:43:53.300 --> 00:43:53.580
<v Sam>Right. There's no deterrent.

00:43:53.580 --> 00:43:58.540
<v Ivan>But it was beyond that. Remember that back then the threat wasn't these types

00:43:58.540 --> 00:44:00.560
<v Ivan>of drones and things and whatever.

00:44:00.800 --> 00:44:09.320
<v Ivan>The threat was small boats that were approaching the tankers and attacking them with small weapons.

00:44:09.500 --> 00:44:15.580
<v Ivan>The reality is that with the Navy being there, there were threats that could

00:44:15.580 --> 00:44:20.980
<v Ivan>be easily disabled by these ships. The reality is...

00:44:22.510 --> 00:44:25.490
<v Ivan>You know, they had fast boats that would go around and stop them.

00:44:25.790 --> 00:44:29.010
<v Ivan>This threat was a lot smaller.

00:44:29.350 --> 00:44:33.310
<v Ivan>This is, we're talking about hundreds and hundreds of drones all of a sudden

00:44:33.310 --> 00:44:35.970
<v Ivan>being launched by air against ships.

00:44:37.550 --> 00:44:42.350
<v Ivan>And you can't just, just because there's, I mean, how many Navy,

00:44:42.470 --> 00:44:46.950
<v Ivan>you probably, what I said is if you're going to want to defend these,

00:44:46.950 --> 00:44:48.470
<v Ivan>you're probably going to have to, like, what,

00:44:48.850 --> 00:44:55.770
<v Ivan>one Navy ship with the type of weapons needed to stop this, basically by tanker?

00:44:55.850 --> 00:45:01.230
<v Ivan>Because most of the weapons that I saw that are effective against this are the

00:45:01.230 --> 00:45:06.970
<v Ivan>type of closed weapons that these ships have to defend against threats that,

00:45:07.070 --> 00:45:10.810
<v Ivan>you know, that use bullets, basically.

00:45:11.110 --> 00:45:16.390
<v Ivan>All right? That is ideally what you want to do. You don't want to be using missiles

00:45:16.390 --> 00:45:18.610
<v Ivan>or whatever. You want to be using guns.

00:45:18.830 --> 00:45:21.630
<v Ivan>The guns only really work at close range.

00:45:22.210 --> 00:45:27.270
<v Ivan>So that means that the ship, the Navy ship, needs to be right by the damn tankards

00:45:27.270 --> 00:45:28.850
<v Ivan>escorting in order to be effective.

00:45:28.850 --> 00:45:31.950
<v Ivan>If there is a significant gap between them and the other one,

00:45:32.170 --> 00:45:35.190
<v Ivan>yeah, they'll be able to stop the Navy ship from getting hit,

00:45:35.350 --> 00:45:37.550
<v Ivan>but not the fucking tankard they're escorting.

00:45:37.710 --> 00:45:41.290
<v Sam>And there are two things there, too. One, we don't have enough.

00:45:41.650 --> 00:45:43.410
<v Ivan>And we don't have enough ships.

00:45:44.030 --> 00:45:51.010
<v Sam>Two, and I've heard this specifically called out as well, is that those defenses,

00:45:51.010 --> 00:45:54.070
<v Sam>you know, they're not perfect.

00:45:54.410 --> 00:46:00.350
<v Sam>And so the Navy is actually worried that if they did this, they'd get some Navy ships sunk as well.

00:46:00.510 --> 00:46:00.970
<v Ivan>That's right.

00:46:01.250 --> 00:46:01.810
<v Sam>Yeah.

00:46:02.250 --> 00:46:03.270
<v Ivan>Damaged, at least.

00:46:03.670 --> 00:46:05.090
<v Sam>At least damaged. Yes.

00:46:05.310 --> 00:46:11.490
<v Ivan>At least damaged. Yeah. It's not as easy as it sounds. My anti-strike. Rich.

00:46:11.490 --> 00:46:14.170
<v Sam>So look,

00:46:15.300 --> 00:46:24.980
<v Sam>Again, like in terms of, there are a lot of folks on the right who were not

00:46:24.980 --> 00:46:27.180
<v Sam>enthused about this in the first place.

00:46:27.280 --> 00:46:30.420
<v Sam>And maybe we can talk a little bit about the divisions on the right coming out of this.

00:46:30.580 --> 00:46:37.920
<v Sam>But who are desperately trying to get Donald Trump to just declare victory and go home.

00:46:38.340 --> 00:46:45.240
<v Sam>You know, call it, we won, we succeeded, we got everything we needed, we're done.

00:46:46.060 --> 00:46:56.300
<v Sam>So far he is refusing now i see the speculation being you know that he's just he's still assuming,

00:46:57.240 --> 00:47:02.180
<v Sam>that any of the disruptions that are caught coming out of this will be short-lived,

00:47:02.800 --> 00:47:08.920
<v Sam>and the iranian iranians will collapse at any moment and it'll just be over

00:47:08.920 --> 00:47:10.720
<v Sam>in a couple weeks as he originally said.

00:47:10.800 --> 00:47:16.300
<v Ivan>They have no incentive to collapse. There is nothing. What is the incentive

00:47:16.300 --> 00:47:18.080
<v Ivan>that they have right now to...

00:47:19.450 --> 00:47:22.990
<v Sam>Well, you know, kill a few more of them, you know, things change.

00:47:23.150 --> 00:47:29.730
<v Sam>But like, but the speculation is that if it doesn't collapse immediately,

00:47:29.730 --> 00:47:36.050
<v Sam>then it's only a matter of time till we do get Trump collapsing.

00:47:36.050 --> 00:47:41.450
<v Sam>And basically saying, okay, the stock market is down too much.

00:47:41.570 --> 00:47:43.890
<v Sam>Oil is too high for too long.

00:47:44.150 --> 00:47:48.290
<v Sam>This is my approval ratings are going down even further.

00:47:48.510 --> 00:47:54.750
<v Sam>Although I believe it was Tucker Carlson who said that based on his conversations

00:47:54.750 --> 00:48:00.590
<v Sam>with Donald Trump, he doesn't believe that Trump is actually seeing any of this.

00:48:00.590 --> 00:48:03.650
<v Sam>Like he is being completely isolated to

00:48:03.650 --> 00:48:06.970
<v Sam>any negative opinions about this like so

00:48:06.970 --> 00:48:10.510
<v Sam>nobody is telling him that this is unpopular nobody

00:48:10.510 --> 00:48:13.690
<v Sam>is telling him the negative things people are only telling

00:48:13.690 --> 00:48:20.150
<v Sam>him yes sir it's going great everything's wonderful and so he doesn't believe

00:48:20.150 --> 00:48:27.430
<v Sam>it but that at some point the pain will become obvious and he'll just like literally

00:48:27.430 --> 00:48:32.530
<v Sam>declare victory and go home He never will admit he was wrong, but he'll say,

00:48:32.850 --> 00:48:39.450
<v Sam>we've decimated them, we've destroyed them, everything's great, and we're done.

00:48:40.290 --> 00:48:42.110
<v Ivan>Great. Fantastic.

00:48:46.350 --> 00:48:47.510
<v Ivan>And so we wait.

00:48:48.630 --> 00:48:55.950
<v Sam>And so we wait. So let's, you know, let's talk about some of that pain.

00:48:57.430 --> 00:49:02.010
<v Sam>Because this again, like the theme to intro it is that,

00:49:02.190 --> 00:49:06.230
<v Sam>and we talked about this last week, but it really, really does appear and more

00:49:06.230 --> 00:49:10.370
<v Sam>and more has come out basically validating this over last week,

00:49:10.550 --> 00:49:19.250
<v Sam>that the Trump administration really honestly thought that the Iranians would

00:49:19.250 --> 00:49:21.870
<v Sam>react in some sort of tepid, half-hearted way,

00:49:22.070 --> 00:49:28.090
<v Sam>maybe throw a couple missiles out with no severe consequences and be done in a few days.

00:49:28.710 --> 00:49:33.110
<v Sam>And that basically would just take it while we attack them and,

00:49:33.270 --> 00:49:39.310
<v Sam>hey, maybe the people would rise up and we'd have a new friendly government

00:49:39.310 --> 00:49:41.550
<v Sam>there. They really thought this.

00:49:41.710 --> 00:49:47.030
<v Sam>And so they were absolutely shocked when the Iranians actually fought back and

00:49:47.030 --> 00:49:50.070
<v Sam>attacked civilian infrastructure all over the region, et cetera.

00:49:50.970 --> 00:49:57.030
<v Sam>And now, you know, as we sit, the horror moose is closed.

00:49:58.710 --> 00:50:02.130
<v Sam>Price of oil has gone up significantly.

00:50:02.510 --> 00:50:06.890
<v Sam>What, it's almost doubled, hasn't it? Isn't it close to doubled at this point?

00:50:06.890 --> 00:50:11.230
<v Ivan>Yeah, it was about $60, $70.

00:50:11.390 --> 00:50:15.950
<v Ivan>It's over $100 a barrel right now. The thing is that...

00:50:15.950 --> 00:50:18.070
<v Sam>Stock market's down too, et cetera.

00:50:18.650 --> 00:50:28.230
<v Ivan>But the thing is that gas prices in the last 20 years, because of refinery capacity

00:50:28.230 --> 00:50:29.910
<v Ivan>being significantly diminished,

00:50:30.290 --> 00:50:36.350
<v Ivan>are far more sensitive to oil moves.

00:50:36.930 --> 00:50:41.510
<v Ivan>And what do I mean by that? What I mean by that is that 20 years ago,

00:50:42.260 --> 00:50:49.480
<v Ivan>$150 oil, which we did get in some brief moments, okay, like it was well north

00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:55.900
<v Ivan>of $100, caused gas prices at $4, okay?

00:50:56.540 --> 00:51:04.800
<v Ivan>Now, $100 oil gets you $4 or $5 gas, just at $100, okay?

00:51:05.440 --> 00:51:14.300
<v Ivan>And so the impact is way worse. Look, I'm looking at recent gas prices that

00:51:14.300 --> 00:51:17.600
<v Ivan>were updated, like, on the GasBuddy app.

00:51:18.260 --> 00:51:28.060
<v Ivan>I mean, regular is, right now, north of $4, like, in most places that I see

00:51:28.060 --> 00:51:29.560
<v Ivan>that recently updated prices.

00:51:29.800 --> 00:51:30.400
<v Sam>I think we're over $5.

00:51:30.400 --> 00:51:33.840
<v Ivan>Yeah. As high as $4 at $80. This is for regular.

00:51:34.260 --> 00:51:39.620
<v Ivan>I saw premium already at places at over $5, okay?

00:51:39.620 --> 00:51:43.640
<v Ivan>In a lot of places It's You

00:51:43.640 --> 00:51:52.540
<v Ivan>know It's crazy Okay And so This is something that You know Oh We didn't expect

00:51:52.540 --> 00:52:00.920
<v Ivan>this But this administration Is populated by Idiots Who never expect anything to happen I just,

00:52:02.810 --> 00:52:08.010
<v Ivan>You think people are thrilled that gas is at $4 or $5 a gallon right now?

00:52:08.210 --> 00:52:16.350
<v Sam>I just checked GasBuddy here locally. The spread near me is pretty widespread

00:52:16.350 --> 00:52:20.530
<v Sam>for regular, from $4.45 to $5.49.

00:52:21.050 --> 00:52:22.930
<v Ivan>Depending on which gas station you're going. By the way, I noticed that a lot

00:52:22.930 --> 00:52:28.250
<v Ivan>of the lower prices on GasBuddy are gas stations that haven't reported prices recently.

00:52:29.290 --> 00:52:32.670
<v Ivan>And so it's you know the lower.

00:52:32.670 --> 00:52:37.030
<v Sam>Ones i just reported were 20 hours ago the higher ones were also 20 hours ago so.

00:52:37.030 --> 00:52:40.030
<v Ivan>Okay so that's that's actually pretty recent but you're yeah but but yours

00:52:40.030 --> 00:52:43.770
<v Ivan>are all over four dollars okay all right i

00:52:43.770 --> 00:52:51.270
<v Ivan>mean yeah i mean it's just this is it's a shit show man i mean i i none of these

00:52:51.270 --> 00:52:57.650
<v Ivan>guys expected any of this uh and let me just share it yeah I just shared this

00:52:57.650 --> 00:53:02.070
<v Ivan>thing on Bloomberg where in December,

00:53:02.690 --> 00:53:11.730
<v Ivan>Trump had this rally, and the background on the rally was lower prices, bigger paychecks.

00:53:12.110 --> 00:53:15.490
<v Ivan>That was the banner. He was awed in December.

00:53:16.190 --> 00:53:17.910
<v Ivan>How's that working out?

00:53:19.550 --> 00:53:26.670
<v Sam>Look, you mentioned gas prices. One of the things is if we have a temporary

00:53:26.670 --> 00:53:29.270
<v Sam>spike that's like one or two weeks and then it goes back down again,

00:53:29.970 --> 00:53:32.050
<v Sam>fine. But wait, wait, wait. But here's the thing.

00:53:32.310 --> 00:53:33.850
<v Ivan>But these spikes are never temporary.

00:53:34.430 --> 00:53:40.130
<v Sam>Right. But if it is, then things will go back to normal.

00:53:40.350 --> 00:53:45.150
<v Sam>But like you said, they never are. But what people don't automatically recognize

00:53:45.150 --> 00:53:47.270
<v Sam>is the follow-on effects.

00:53:47.590 --> 00:53:57.270
<v Sam>Okay. Gasoline In the US A very high proportion of products Are transported by truck.

00:53:58.400 --> 00:54:04.240
<v Ivan>Diesel prices are at oh my god the the price of diesel you think gas diesel

00:54:04.240 --> 00:54:05.800
<v Ivan>has been over five dollars.

00:54:05.800 --> 00:54:09.560
<v Sam>So the point is that what

00:54:09.560 --> 00:54:15.580
<v Sam>that means is because gas prices are high everything else is going to increase

00:54:15.580 --> 00:54:21.560
<v Sam>in price too because oh god guess what that thing you buy at your local walmart

00:54:21.560 --> 00:54:27.600
<v Sam>did not grow in the walmart parking lot it had to be it had to be shipped No.

00:54:27.740 --> 00:54:33.460
<v Ivan>You're shitting me. So it isn't just a big farm outside in the Walmart parking

00:54:33.460 --> 00:54:41.160
<v Ivan>lot growing shorts and, you know, T-shirts and, you know, sporting goods.

00:54:41.400 --> 00:54:46.000
<v Ivan>There isn't like a farm section out there growing sporting goods.

00:54:46.140 --> 00:54:48.140
<v Ivan>That would be quite interesting, I would say.

00:54:48.580 --> 00:54:51.860
<v Sam>You've got the orchard full of basketball trees.

00:54:52.360 --> 00:54:55.800
<v Ivan>Oh, my God. That would be wonderful.

00:54:56.900 --> 00:54:57.420
<v Sam>What.

00:54:57.420 --> 00:55:01.420
<v Ivan>Are you doing today oh i'm gonna go you go oh no do you like to pick apples

00:55:01.420 --> 00:55:03.740
<v Ivan>no no no i go pick basketballs.

00:55:03.740 --> 00:55:15.060
<v Sam>Yes anyway so this all has you know knock-on effects like you can't,

00:55:17.100 --> 00:55:22.560
<v Sam>and this gets me back to and i hate to be redundant but it's just this it's

00:55:22.560 --> 00:55:28.860
<v Sam>so stunning the level of ignorance and lack of foresight.

00:55:29.620 --> 00:55:37.120
<v Sam>I mean, this is what people have said about, you know, potential consequences of,

00:55:38.130 --> 00:55:41.090
<v Sam>Doing things in the Middle East, going back generations.

00:55:41.570 --> 00:55:45.410
<v Ivan>All right, so, by the way, I checked the diesel price. The national average

00:55:45.410 --> 00:55:50.810
<v Ivan>price of diesel has reached $492 a gallon today. That was yesterday.

00:55:51.310 --> 00:55:56.930
<v Ivan>By the end of the weekend, we will likely see an average of $5 a gallon national

00:55:56.930 --> 00:56:01.670
<v Ivan>average for diesel, which will likely re-accelerate inflation the longer it sticks around.

00:56:02.670 --> 00:56:09.730
<v Ivan>And the revised inflation measures. Look, I just shared the news about it earlier this week.

00:56:10.610 --> 00:56:17.470
<v Ivan>The PCE, which is the, oh my God, the damn, the PCE,

00:56:17.950 --> 00:56:27.290
<v Ivan>it's the personal consumption expenditure index, which is basically what you're

00:56:27.290 --> 00:56:32.130
<v Ivan>spending, not looking at prices, but how much you're actually spending. Okay.

00:56:32.290 --> 00:56:36.950
<v Ivan>Are you having to spend more for stuff on aggregate? Okay.

00:56:38.110 --> 00:56:41.850
<v Ivan>That went up 3.1% in January. Okay.

00:56:42.690 --> 00:56:48.630
<v Ivan>And that's, you know, that means that for the same basket of stuff that you're

00:56:48.630 --> 00:56:51.870
<v Ivan>buying, it's going up at an annual rate of 3.1%.

00:56:51.870 --> 00:56:55.650
<v Ivan>That was like before this shock.

00:56:55.650 --> 00:57:06.430
<v Ivan>Okay they revised fourth quarter gdp to be down 0.7 we are 100 percent in stagflation

00:57:06.430 --> 00:57:08.850
<v Ivan>territory right now which.

00:57:08.850 --> 00:57:11.170
<v Sam>Means high inflation low growth correct.

00:57:11.170 --> 00:57:14.570
<v Ivan>Right that's.

00:57:14.570 --> 00:57:15.290
<v Sam>Good though right.

00:57:17.350 --> 00:57:24.050
<v Ivan>It's good if you're, like, half nostalgia for the late 1970s with,

00:57:24.070 --> 00:57:27.950
<v Ivan>like, high unemployment, gas lines.

00:57:28.510 --> 00:57:29.830
<v Sam>It was a good time.

00:57:30.430 --> 00:57:37.190
<v Ivan>You know, interest rates over 10%. If that's your, you know,

00:57:37.270 --> 00:57:41.250
<v Ivan>make America great again theme, then okay.

00:57:41.950 --> 00:57:47.130
<v Sam>I'm sure that when Donald came up with that slogan, he was thinking about the

00:57:47.130 --> 00:57:48.050
<v Sam>Carter administration.

00:57:48.770 --> 00:57:51.850
<v Ivan>Yeah, that was what he was looking at. It was the Carter administration.

00:57:51.970 --> 00:57:52.750
<v Sam>Which, by the way.

00:57:52.750 --> 00:57:54.770
<v Ivan>A lot of those things were not Carter's fault.

00:57:55.110 --> 00:58:00.290
<v Sam>I mean, including, you know, Iran stuff, just to be clear.

00:58:00.670 --> 00:58:02.770
<v Ivan>Including Iran, yeah. Fuck me.

00:58:05.150 --> 00:58:09.170
<v Ivan>And by the way, a lot of that stuff was not Jimmy Carter's fault.

00:58:09.170 --> 00:58:12.250
<v Ivan>He inherited a lot of this from the Nixon and Ford administration,

00:58:12.250 --> 00:58:16.030
<v Ivan>from shit that happened before the Arab oil embargo, you know,

00:58:16.230 --> 00:58:20.230
<v Ivan>other policies that were that were done in the past, the fucking hangover from

00:58:20.230 --> 00:58:23.790
<v Ivan>the Vietnam War and all the spending happened with the Vietnam War.

00:58:23.970 --> 00:58:30.310
<v Ivan>I mean, there was it was a bad hangover of an economy that he inherited.

00:58:30.670 --> 00:58:35.350
<v Ivan>OK, with all these things happening at the same time. And and Iran.

00:58:36.330 --> 00:58:38.230
<v Ivan>And fucking Iran again.

00:58:39.510 --> 00:58:45.430
<v Sam>So I don't know, like in trying to predict the future for this,

00:58:45.850 --> 00:58:53.070
<v Sam>because Trump is so unpredictable, you have the whole range of possibilities here.

00:58:53.290 --> 00:58:56.930
<v Sam>You have him declaring victory and going home within a few days.

00:58:57.290 --> 00:59:01.650
<v Sam>And of course, people have pointed out, even if he does, Iran has a vote.

00:59:02.450 --> 00:59:07.810
<v Sam>You know, like Iran doesn't have to stop hostilities because we decide that we're done.

00:59:07.810 --> 00:59:08.190
<v Ivan>Correct.

00:59:08.610 --> 00:59:11.670
<v Sam>You know, that's very.

00:59:11.850 --> 00:59:17.830
<v Ivan>That's totally correct. You know, I know that the, the, a lot of the countries

00:59:17.830 --> 00:59:23.430
<v Ivan>in the Persian Gulf that are getting shot at are actively trying to make this

00:59:23.430 --> 00:59:26.350
<v Ivan>stop. It's costing them billions.

00:59:26.350 --> 00:59:29.590
<v Sam>Well a whole lot of the area

00:59:29.590 --> 00:59:32.870
<v Sam>i mean they were trying to build brands around how

00:59:32.870 --> 00:59:35.670
<v Sam>they're safe and friendly and they're

00:59:35.670 --> 00:59:40.190
<v Sam>not like the rest of the middle east they're like you know it's a good place

00:59:40.190 --> 00:59:44.590
<v Sam>to do business hell it's a good place to go on vacation you know all this kind

00:59:44.590 --> 00:59:53.330
<v Sam>of stuff and and that brand is somewhat diminished by drones coming in and blowing

00:59:53.330 --> 00:59:55.430
<v Sam>things up somewhat Look.

00:59:55.990 --> 01:00:00.290
<v Ivan>Recovering from this will be quite painful for them.

01:00:02.950 --> 01:00:09.410
<v Ivan>I mean, a brand, like you said, that had been tried to be cultivated over decades...

01:00:11.720 --> 01:00:13.240
<v Ivan>Has been shattered by this.

01:00:16.800 --> 01:00:25.440
<v Sam>So the happy side of the equation, I guess, is declare victory and go home and

01:00:25.440 --> 01:00:29.860
<v Sam>then live with the fact that you actually didn't make anything better for anybody.

01:00:30.100 --> 01:00:33.180
<v Sam>In fact, it looks like you probably made things worse.

01:00:33.480 --> 01:00:38.540
<v Sam>Like you killed some of the moderates that were potentially the hope for doing

01:00:38.540 --> 01:00:41.260
<v Sam>something better after the Ayatollah died naturally.

01:00:41.720 --> 01:00:45.360
<v Ivan>And instead put into place somebody about venezuela

01:00:45.360 --> 01:00:49.920
<v Ivan>and i was yesterday at the airport with my boss who is from venezuela by the

01:00:49.920 --> 01:00:55.720
<v Ivan>way and he was we we were talking about this and you know what the you know

01:00:55.720 --> 01:00:59.060
<v Ivan>what the deal is with venezuela and you know we've all forgotten about venezuela

01:00:59.060 --> 01:01:03.320
<v Ivan>already okay by the way and how it's,

01:01:04.880 --> 01:01:11.140
<v Ivan>It really hasn't improved as of now, the situation in Venezuela,

01:01:11.420 --> 01:01:14.780
<v Ivan>even with this whole thing with them capturing Maduro.

01:01:15.180 --> 01:01:19.400
<v Ivan>Has it really improved that he could go back to visit?

01:01:19.780 --> 01:01:22.560
<v Ivan>No. As a matter of fact, one of the problems that he has, like,

01:01:22.660 --> 01:01:28.840
<v Ivan>right now is that as many Venezuelans that are not in Venezuela is that they can't get passports.

01:01:30.220 --> 01:01:35.540
<v Ivan>And if you try to get a passport i've seen people like brokering them and you

01:01:35.540 --> 01:01:43.780
<v Ivan>have to pay like five thousand dollars for a passport and they can't they are not allowed to go home,

01:01:44.500 --> 01:01:49.780
<v Ivan>without a venezuelan passport so these people are not can't go home.

01:01:49.780 --> 01:01:53.300
<v Sam>Well look here's the thing and

01:01:53.300 --> 01:01:56.420
<v Sam>i know we've said this before we're always very repetitive

01:01:56.420 --> 01:01:59.580
<v Sam>on the show repetitive on the show repetitive on

01:01:59.580 --> 01:02:02.920
<v Sam>the show but donald trump's

01:02:02.920 --> 01:02:05.760
<v Sam>goal in venezuela was never to make things better

01:02:05.760 --> 01:02:14.200
<v Sam>in venezuela ever that wasn't part of his plan his plan was at best it was i

01:02:14.200 --> 01:02:20.080
<v Sam>want somebody in there that i can make deals with to benefit me me that's it

01:02:20.080 --> 01:02:24.500
<v Sam>that's it and you can argue that he's potentially achieved that.

01:02:24.880 --> 01:02:26.940
<v Sam>Like, is he getting something out of this?

01:02:27.900 --> 01:02:33.700
<v Sam>Like, you know, I'm sure he is. Right. And that was, that was the goal goal achieved.

01:02:35.220 --> 01:02:40.140
<v Sam>Maybe he's got something similar going on in Iran. Have we checked out what

01:02:40.140 --> 01:02:42.460
<v Sam>kind of deals Kushner's got going on yet?

01:02:43.920 --> 01:02:47.920
<v Ivan>Yeah, I mean, I think that's always the first thing to look at is what the hell?

01:02:48.220 --> 01:02:50.060
<v Ivan>What deals does Kushner have?

01:02:50.640 --> 01:02:56.200
<v Sam>You know, anyway, the best scenario was the backing off, like, whatever.

01:02:56.200 --> 01:03:01.380
<v Sam>The worst case, of course, is we get sucked into something prolonged here because,

01:03:01.380 --> 01:03:07.320
<v Sam>you know, Iran continues to expand it. They have no reason not to.

01:03:08.540 --> 01:03:15.660
<v Sam>And we continue to get increasing chaos that lasts for an extended period of

01:03:15.660 --> 01:03:22.440
<v Sam>time, like years, not months, you know, it'll probably be somewhere in between that. Who knows?

01:03:22.620 --> 01:03:25.460
<v Sam>But like, that's the range of possibilities here.

01:03:26.200 --> 01:03:30.040
<v Sam>I mean, I saw one report, I don't know if this was confirmed yet,

01:03:30.780 --> 01:03:37.100
<v Sam>but that Iran, you know, there were negotiations happening between the U.S.

01:03:37.660 --> 01:03:42.340
<v Sam>Administration and Iran up until like literally days before we attacked them, right?

01:03:43.100 --> 01:03:48.800
<v Sam>And I saw one report that basically said, look, the Iranians had realized that

01:03:48.800 --> 01:03:51.420
<v Sam>all Donald really cared about was...

01:03:52.180 --> 01:03:56.500
<v Sam>Or at least what they thought all he really cared about, was bragging rights

01:03:56.500 --> 01:04:03.780
<v Sam>to be able to say, that deal Obama did was shit, and I got a better deal.

01:04:04.340 --> 01:04:11.780
<v Sam>So the Iranians were actually starting to offer things that went beyond the

01:04:11.780 --> 01:04:18.780
<v Sam>Obama deal in the hopes that Donald Trump would just do exactly that.

01:04:19.180 --> 01:04:21.960
<v Sam>Obama's deal was shit. I came up with something better.

01:04:22.180 --> 01:04:23.200
<v Ivan>I got a better deal.

01:04:23.340 --> 01:04:29.760
<v Sam>Give me the Nobel Peace Prize again, please. You know, but that, no.

01:04:30.180 --> 01:04:36.020
<v Sam>Like, in the end, even though the Iranians were there and starting to offer

01:04:36.020 --> 01:04:39.820
<v Sam>stuff that was at least comparable and maybe better to the previous deal,

01:04:41.680 --> 01:04:47.700
<v Sam>the other voices got in Donald's head and convinced him that doing this would be better.

01:04:49.190 --> 01:04:56.130
<v Ivan>Ah, nice. Well, I think, well, the voice that got to him was one.

01:04:57.210 --> 01:04:58.330
<v Sam>You're going to say Bibi?

01:04:59.010 --> 01:04:59.490
<v Ivan>Yeah.

01:04:59.490 --> 01:05:03.710
<v Sam>I mean, I think he was definitely part of it, but I think we shouldn't pretend

01:05:03.710 --> 01:05:07.730
<v Sam>that there aren't a lot of folks on this side of the...

01:05:08.250 --> 01:05:12.550
<v Sam>Yeah, I think Bibi was very loud, but there are certainly people within his

01:05:12.550 --> 01:05:16.250
<v Sam>administration that were cheering that on.

01:05:16.250 --> 01:05:19.430
<v Sam>Now there were some that weren't like

01:05:19.430 --> 01:05:22.250
<v Sam>supposedly vance was not thrilled by this at

01:05:22.250 --> 01:05:25.230
<v Sam>all but was donald gonna pay attention to

01:05:25.230 --> 01:05:27.970
<v Sam>jd vance fuck that no of course

01:05:27.970 --> 01:05:35.250
<v Sam>not you know i mean and you know apparently there were people that were saying

01:05:35.250 --> 01:05:42.310
<v Sam>be careful donald straits of hormuz be careful donald iran can cause trouble

01:05:42.310 --> 01:05:46.190
<v Sam>be careful donald this won't be like your little attack before,

01:05:46.430 --> 01:05:50.370
<v Sam>this will be a big thing, and they were all just completely ignored.

01:05:51.350 --> 01:05:53.730
<v Ivan>Well, so here we are.

01:05:54.050 --> 01:05:58.210
<v Sam>So here we are. Anything else to say, or should we take a break and move on?

01:05:58.390 --> 01:05:59.710
<v Ivan>Nah, let's take a break.

01:06:00.050 --> 01:06:04.330
<v Sam>Okay. Break, break, break, break, break, break.

01:06:55.020 --> 01:06:56.340
<v Sam>And there's the end.

01:06:56.340 --> 01:06:59.220
<v Ivan>Okay here's an interesting thing yes i

01:06:59.220 --> 01:07:02.160
<v Ivan>i i had mentioned that when i went to uh

01:07:02.160 --> 01:07:05.080
<v Ivan>on the slack i'd mentioned and when i went i got

01:07:05.080 --> 01:07:08.700
<v Ivan>to miami all of a sudden me just

01:07:08.700 --> 01:07:11.960
<v Ivan>well it was quite early in the morning it was

01:07:11.960 --> 01:07:15.580
<v Ivan>4 45 in the morning i'm getting to the airport i'm like seeing this qatar

01:07:15.580 --> 01:07:18.840
<v Ivan>airways plane parked there and usually in a

01:07:18.840 --> 01:07:21.660
<v Ivan>location where it's never parked and i'm like why the fuck is

01:07:21.660 --> 01:07:25.260
<v Ivan>this plane parked here and i'm like oh you idiot of course it

01:07:25.260 --> 01:07:28.760
<v Ivan>can't go home right uh but then

01:07:28.760 --> 01:07:34.460
<v Ivan>when i got back last night there were two of them okay okay so i'm like what

01:07:34.460 --> 01:07:40.240
<v Ivan>the fuck well i just saw that one plane did come down from london from from

01:07:40.240 --> 01:07:45.740
<v Ivan>qatar airways to miami yesterday but right now i i checked to see what aircraft

01:07:45.740 --> 01:07:48.380
<v Ivan>are in the air for Qatar Airways right now.

01:07:48.620 --> 01:07:52.640
<v Ivan>There are two aircraft right now that, according to Flight Radar,

01:07:53.740 --> 01:07:58.740
<v Ivan>are supposedly flying to Doha right now.

01:07:59.100 --> 01:08:05.540
<v Ivan>I don't know if they're carrying passengers, but there are, yeah,

01:08:05.780 --> 01:08:15.140
<v Ivan>there are two flights that seem to be trying to land in Qatar today.

01:08:15.140 --> 01:08:20.120
<v Ivan>So I'm not sure if they're just risking it and saying, fuck it.

01:08:21.900 --> 01:08:26.740
<v Ivan>Or is there a material change right now in the situation that is allowing this right now to happen?

01:08:28.580 --> 01:08:31.560
<v Ivan>Because there's one from Dallas, and there's one from Miami.

01:08:31.920 --> 01:08:36.880
<v Ivan>They're both heading there, according to the flight plan. And they're in the air right now.

01:08:38.160 --> 01:08:41.760
<v Ivan>So I just thought that was interesting. But anyway, all right.

01:08:41.920 --> 01:08:45.020
<v Ivan>So I had picked that subject. So what do you want to talk about, Sam?

01:08:45.740 --> 01:08:51.040
<v Sam>Ah, geez. You know, you had mentioned...

01:08:51.200 --> 01:08:54.280
<v Sam>When we first started recording, I hadn't put anything on the list.

01:08:55.100 --> 01:08:59.420
<v Sam>Yeah. And there are two reasons for that. One, I will fully admit,

01:08:59.640 --> 01:09:02.860
<v Sam>I was not paying as much attention to this this week.

01:09:03.720 --> 01:09:09.480
<v Sam>I'm not going to give a full update here, but basically, I had my surgery thing on Monday.

01:09:09.560 --> 01:09:09.820
<v Ivan>Uh-huh.

01:09:10.220 --> 01:09:14.840
<v Sam>Right. And as it turns out, there's one more step I have to do.

01:09:14.900 --> 01:09:19.380
<v Sam>It's just a doctor's office visit in a few days, but there's one more step I

01:09:19.380 --> 01:09:22.660
<v Sam>have to do. And so I still have, crap inside my body.

01:09:23.140 --> 01:09:28.000
<v Sam>And it's actually hurt more this time than last time around.

01:09:28.200 --> 01:09:32.200
<v Sam>So I've been spending a lot of time just sitting, doing nothing,

01:09:32.920 --> 01:09:37.660
<v Sam>watching TV with the kid, trying to avoid moving because moving hurts.

01:09:37.660 --> 01:09:40.580
<v Sam>So I haven't been paying as much attention to other things.

01:09:40.720 --> 01:09:44.380
<v Sam>And also just, you know, this goes to what we were talking about last week.

01:09:44.560 --> 01:09:46.860
<v Sam>You know, okay, war in Iran.

01:09:47.220 --> 01:09:50.060
<v Sam>Okay, big. but other than that how many

01:09:50.060 --> 01:09:53.220
<v Sam>big stories have there been this week they're not

01:09:53.220 --> 01:09:59.220
<v Sam>that many i'm i'm looking at like you know google news right now scrolling up

01:09:59.220 --> 01:10:06.720
<v Sam>and down and like let's see i i on the home page okay i ran stuff i ran stuff

01:10:06.720 --> 01:10:13.000
<v Sam>we did have you know a shooting and a synagogue attack.

01:10:13.660 --> 01:10:15.520
<v Sam>So we did have that kind of stuff.

01:10:16.200 --> 01:10:17.600
<v Sam>We, we have, Hey.

01:10:17.780 --> 01:10:20.380
<v Ivan>But I, you were, you know, I tipped an election.

01:10:21.120 --> 01:10:25.200
<v Sam>I, I, I've thought about literally tipped an election.

01:10:25.700 --> 01:10:29.300
<v Sam>Okay, fine. Tell, I was going to talk about a few of these other things that

01:10:29.300 --> 01:10:33.160
<v Sam>are nothing, but since go ahead and do this one, then I can talk about more nothing.

01:10:33.620 --> 01:10:40.280
<v Ivan>Basically, look, there was an election for mayor over here, the city of Boca, city of Boca Raton.

01:10:40.420 --> 01:10:44.380
<v Ivan>Now, the reality is that this is a nonpart, a partisan election,

01:10:44.600 --> 01:10:49.100
<v Ivan>the people we know, so theoretically, but no, but the reality is that I've been

01:10:49.100 --> 01:10:49.780
<v Ivan>through these elections.

01:10:49.780 --> 01:10:55.640
<v Ivan>Most of the time, there's no talk about the candidates have not in the past

01:10:55.640 --> 01:11:00.140
<v Ivan>identified themselves as aligned, that they're doing this with the party or whatever.

01:11:00.560 --> 01:11:03.320
<v Ivan>Most of the stuff that they do is pretty innocuous.

01:11:04.100 --> 01:11:10.780
<v Ivan>But there was a controversy here related to a very big bill,

01:11:11.320 --> 01:11:15.380
<v Ivan>a very big project that had been pushed by the previous mayor,

01:11:15.440 --> 01:11:22.220
<v Ivan>who, he wasn't up for re-election, and he's actually in recent weeks declared

01:11:22.220 --> 01:11:24.840
<v Ivan>himself as a kind of MAGA,

01:11:25.000 --> 01:11:31.100
<v Ivan>I'm going to go MAGA-like guy, but he's more a rhino.

01:11:31.680 --> 01:11:35.720
<v Ivan>And so he was going to run for the House under by the Republicans.

01:11:36.300 --> 01:11:42.120
<v Ivan>As a matter of fact, I had no idea. Honestly, he had kept his political leanings pretty silent.

01:11:42.220 --> 01:11:45.040
<v Ivan>I had no idea until recent times that he was even a Republican.

01:11:45.460 --> 01:11:48.220
<v Ivan>Okay. I'd met this guy personally every time. I had no idea.

01:11:49.160 --> 01:11:53.980
<v Ivan>But this development bill was passed by the city council downtown.

01:11:54.400 --> 01:12:03.060
<v Ivan>A lot of people very loudly were opposing it. and a group of people were rallying,

01:12:03.790 --> 01:12:07.670
<v Ivan>you know, people to vote against the development, okay?

01:12:07.990 --> 01:12:11.930
<v Ivan>It was going to give a whole bunch of a big tract of public land,

01:12:12.050 --> 01:12:13.590
<v Ivan>a 99-year lease to a developer.

01:12:14.210 --> 01:12:17.730
<v Ivan>The city was going to make a significant amount of money, but a lot of people

01:12:17.730 --> 01:12:20.070
<v Ivan>were opposed to the deal to the developer.

01:12:20.590 --> 01:12:23.590
<v Ivan>And this caused, like, huge turnout.

01:12:23.830 --> 01:12:27.330
<v Ivan>And when I'm talking about turnout is my wife, who ran a polling station,

01:12:27.470 --> 01:12:32.230
<v Ivan>told me that in recent city elections, they had had, like, about a hundred voters show up.

01:12:32.590 --> 01:12:33.150
<v Sam>Okay.

01:12:33.170 --> 01:12:38.350
<v Ivan>In this one, she had 450 people vote in her polling station.

01:12:38.550 --> 01:12:41.410
<v Ivan>I mean, like four times the normal amount of people.

01:12:41.730 --> 01:12:44.030
<v Ivan>So it drove turnout significantly.

01:12:44.970 --> 01:12:52.130
<v Ivan>This coalition that was pushing for, I guess, to vote against the development,

01:12:52.870 --> 01:12:59.850
<v Ivan>also had put a slate of people to be on the city council, but not actually someone to run for mayor.

01:13:00.630 --> 01:13:01.930
<v Ivan>They hadn't endorsed anybody.

01:13:02.770 --> 01:13:08.150
<v Ivan>The guy who is a Democrat on there that I believe he had been on the city council,

01:13:08.470 --> 01:13:14.270
<v Ivan>he was he had come out and was personally against the development.

01:13:14.510 --> 01:13:17.370
<v Ivan>But what he had said is, look, this is the will of the people.

01:13:17.390 --> 01:13:18.790
<v Ivan>It's being put up to a vote.

01:13:19.330 --> 01:13:23.250
<v Ivan>If the people want to do it, I'm going to follow the law and I'm going to,

01:13:23.270 --> 01:13:27.510
<v Ivan>you know, do what the people vote for, even though I'm personally against it.

01:13:27.610 --> 01:13:33.330
<v Ivan>But, you know, but that was his position. The other two were for what actually

01:13:33.330 --> 01:13:38.290
<v Ivan>now that there's the other guy who came in second place. He was also against the project.

01:13:39.500 --> 01:13:43.720
<v Ivan>I don't know. He was a Republican. So bottom line is that the deal,

01:13:43.900 --> 01:13:49.960
<v Ivan>so much turnout, the slate in the city council that the Save Boca Coalition,

01:13:50.240 --> 01:13:54.380
<v Ivan>as they're called, put up, they all swept their seats. They won. Okay.

01:13:55.400 --> 01:14:01.460
<v Ivan>They won the seats. And then for the mayor, the guy that won was a guy that

01:14:01.460 --> 01:14:05.000
<v Ivan>I think a lot of people do was a Democrat and he won and he won.

01:14:05.180 --> 01:14:06.800
<v Ivan>Well, the first count came out.

01:14:07.000 --> 01:14:09.140
<v Ivan>It was by one seat, by one vote.

01:14:09.900 --> 01:14:14.580
<v Sam>That was already a machine recount of the original count.

01:14:14.900 --> 01:14:17.860
<v Ivan>Yeah, that's right. And I, shit, I didn't.

01:14:18.880 --> 01:14:20.720
<v Sam>One vote. One vote.

01:14:20.740 --> 01:14:25.760
<v Ivan>One vote. And I almost didn't go to vote. Because I was like busy.

01:14:26.040 --> 01:14:26.880
<v Sam>There was only what?

01:14:26.880 --> 01:14:28.020
<v Ivan>It was like 15,000.

01:14:28.140 --> 01:14:35.100
<v Sam>15,000 votes total. So this is like a relatively small election with not that

01:14:35.100 --> 01:14:36.740
<v Sam>many people voting to begin with.

01:14:36.880 --> 01:14:37.000
<v Ivan>Right.

01:14:37.120 --> 01:14:37.900
<v Sam>Still one vote.

01:14:38.320 --> 01:14:41.180
<v Ivan>It was one vote. But I almost didn't go, Sam.

01:14:42.480 --> 01:14:43.720
<v Sam>How would you have felt?

01:14:44.940 --> 01:14:50.680
<v Ivan>Oh, my God. I would have been like, and I was voting for the guy,

01:14:50.920 --> 01:14:54.540
<v Ivan>you know, for Andy Thompson. I was going to go vote for him, okay?

01:14:55.040 --> 01:14:59.000
<v Ivan>I was like, no, no, no. I was like, no, fucking, I got to go vote. I got to go vote, okay?

01:14:59.200 --> 01:15:03.680
<v Ivan>And so I went and I fucking went to vote. And when I saw that, I'm like, holy shit.

01:15:05.640 --> 01:15:09.220
<v Ivan>Apparently a second recount that I think they did it came out that he was ahead

01:15:09.220 --> 01:15:16.200
<v Ivan>by five so I guess he found like four you know four votes are you sure you'll have those in.

01:15:16.200 --> 01:15:18.260
<v Sam>The right order and the five was.

01:15:18.260 --> 01:15:23.100
<v Ivan>After the one and not the one after five was after the one yeah five was after the one.

01:15:23.100 --> 01:15:24.540
<v Sam>That's still pretty close.

01:15:25.020 --> 01:15:28.080
<v Ivan>That's still very close I mean occasionally you.

01:15:28.080 --> 01:15:31.940
<v Sam>Do get these exact tie elections that they like do coin flips and crap for.

01:15:31.940 --> 01:15:32.200
<v Ivan>Yeah,

01:15:34.290 --> 01:15:39.390
<v Ivan>I don't I do think that people make an ad a lot about this being the Democrat

01:15:39.390 --> 01:15:41.150
<v Ivan>Republican or a thing or whatever.

01:15:41.490 --> 01:15:46.030
<v Ivan>I think that this election doesn't really didn't really carry that.

01:15:46.250 --> 01:15:49.770
<v Sam>Well, the one thing I don't know, the one thing also, though,

01:15:50.010 --> 01:15:54.730
<v Sam>this was this was a final election, not a primary. Right. This is he's won.

01:15:54.850 --> 01:15:56.550
<v Ivan>This is an election. This was the election. Yes.

01:15:56.670 --> 01:16:01.150
<v Sam>Right. And so what's what's interesting about this is another this is another

01:16:01.150 --> 01:16:03.510
<v Sam>one of these cases where you don't have.

01:16:03.510 --> 01:16:06.510
<v Sam>You know a rank choice you don't have a runoff you

01:16:06.510 --> 01:16:09.410
<v Sam>don't have a whatever because nobody got

01:16:09.410 --> 01:16:13.650
<v Sam>a majority here like basically and

01:16:13.650 --> 01:16:16.570
<v Sam>i know you say don't don't really count this as partisan because it's not quite

01:16:16.570 --> 01:16:22.470
<v Sam>the same thing but like if you add up the quote-unquote republicans they were

01:16:22.470 --> 01:16:27.610
<v Sam>way ahead there were more of them there were more but they were split and and

01:16:27.610 --> 01:16:32.530
<v Sam>this ties to i guess i I guess here's another topic that's related,

01:16:32.530 --> 01:16:35.530
<v Sam>since we're talking about split votes and that kind of stuff,

01:16:35.710 --> 01:16:39.250
<v Sam>which is the California governor's race that's happening right now.

01:16:39.850 --> 01:16:47.310
<v Sam>And for those who haven't been following that, California does have a primary.

01:16:48.390 --> 01:16:49.210
<v Ivan>The jungle primary.

01:16:49.350 --> 01:16:54.130
<v Sam>But it's a jungle primary. And so what that means is the top two candidates

01:16:54.130 --> 01:16:58.930
<v Sam>end up in the general election regardless of party.

01:16:59.110 --> 01:17:03.830
<v Sam>So, like, if the top two are Democrat, you have a general election with two Democrats.

01:17:04.030 --> 01:17:07.550
<v Sam>If the top two are Republican, the general election is between two Republicans.

01:17:07.970 --> 01:17:13.470
<v Sam>And so what is happening right there in California right now is the Democrats

01:17:13.470 --> 01:17:17.650
<v Sam>are actually somewhat—California is a very Democratic state right now.

01:17:17.650 --> 01:17:23.750
<v Sam>You know, they tend to win by large margins in statewide elections,

01:17:23.750 --> 01:17:31.970
<v Sam>but there are like a thousand Democratic candidates and there's like two Republican

01:17:31.970 --> 01:17:34.290
<v Sam>candidates, maybe three or four, but two big ones.

01:17:35.430 --> 01:17:38.470
<v Sam>And if you look at recent polling...

01:17:39.190 --> 01:17:44.910
<v Sam>The two Republicans are coming in in the number one and number two slots because

01:17:44.910 --> 01:17:47.930
<v Sam>all of the Democrats are splitting the rest of the vote.

01:17:48.170 --> 01:17:53.690
<v Ivan>Oh, God. With what percentage of the vote? Like with 30%, 30%, 40%, 35%?

01:17:53.910 --> 01:17:57.610
<v Sam>Less. Oh, God. Let me see if I can find some.

01:17:58.530 --> 01:18:04.450
<v Sam>I'll see if I can find some polling on this to actually get you. Hold on. Let me look.

01:18:05.650 --> 01:18:08.190
<v Sam>As I look this up.

01:18:09.550 --> 01:18:16.210
<v Sam>Let's see. Here we go. 270 to win. Blah, blah, blah. That UX sucks.

01:18:17.850 --> 01:18:21.050
<v Sam>Latest polls from RCP. Let's try this.

01:18:22.110 --> 01:18:27.190
<v Sam>Okay. So this one poll I'm looking at, well,

01:18:27.530 --> 01:18:31.530
<v Sam>just looking at the latest two polls, one has a Democrat in the lead,

01:18:31.610 --> 01:18:35.590
<v Sam>one has a Republican in the lead and it's not the

01:18:35.590 --> 01:18:38.450
<v Sam>ux is not helpful here but it has the

01:18:38.450 --> 01:18:42.690
<v Sam>the the leading candidate is just under 20 in

01:18:42.690 --> 01:18:51.550
<v Sam>these polls and with by the way something like 25 undecided okay so man so like

01:18:51.550 --> 01:18:57.370
<v Sam>people have been begging like democrats who are polling at like five or six

01:18:57.370 --> 01:18:59.830
<v Sam>percent to please drop out drop out.

01:19:00.070 --> 01:19:02.390
<v Ivan>Drop out, drop the fuck out.

01:19:02.550 --> 01:19:07.970
<v Sam>You know, and we don't have, I forget exactly when this election is,

01:19:08.110 --> 01:19:09.870
<v Sam>but it's coming up before too long.

01:19:10.150 --> 01:19:16.050
<v Sam>And so, yeah, the worry is that two Republicans, neither one of which could

01:19:16.050 --> 01:19:22.190
<v Sam>ever, ever, ever win in California normally, might be up against each other

01:19:22.190 --> 01:19:24.910
<v Sam>with the Democrats shut out of the general election in California.

01:19:25.310 --> 01:19:25.750
<v Ivan>Hmm.

01:19:27.200 --> 01:19:35.420
<v Sam>Now, 25% undecided, all they have to do is consolidate around some of the higher-ranking

01:19:35.420 --> 01:19:39.460
<v Sam>Democrats, and this problem goes away. So that may still happen.

01:19:39.720 --> 01:19:48.500
<v Sam>But still, you know, this is where, like, I like in general the idea of open primaries.

01:19:49.400 --> 01:19:55.140
<v Sam>Jungle primaries, things like this where it could be Democrat versus Democrat

01:19:55.140 --> 01:19:58.520
<v Sam>or Republican versus Republican, and if that's what the constituency is.

01:19:58.920 --> 01:20:03.460
<v Sam>But the straight-up jungle primary, I think, is the stupidest way of doing this.

01:20:03.680 --> 01:20:07.600
<v Sam>Like, if you're going to do something like this, you want something like rank-choice

01:20:07.600 --> 01:20:15.480
<v Sam>voting or instant runoffs or something like that where you take the people at

01:20:15.480 --> 01:20:19.620
<v Sam>the bottom and you redistribute their support and you keep doing that until

01:20:19.620 --> 01:20:20.740
<v Sam>somebody has a majority.

01:20:21.080 --> 01:20:26.200
<v Sam>You don't just say, okay, top two in the jungle primary go against each other

01:20:26.200 --> 01:20:29.380
<v Sam>Because then you get this kind of situation where where the top two got like

01:20:29.380 --> 01:20:35.980
<v Sam>17 percent and 13 percent or something like that and are not representative at all.

01:20:36.700 --> 01:20:41.140
<v Sam>And so I don't know. You may get some craziness here.

01:20:41.320 --> 01:20:47.220
<v Sam>I mean, I believe this is how Schwarzenegger won, too, in this kind of split

01:20:47.220 --> 01:20:54.000
<v Sam>where where the Democrats split and you ended up having a Republican sneak in.

01:20:54.000 --> 01:20:57.200
<v Sam>Now, in that case, you got a fairly moderate Republican.

01:20:57.640 --> 01:21:02.360
<v Sam>Arnold Schwarzenegger is not a crazy MAGA type. In fact, in more recent days,

01:21:02.380 --> 01:21:03.900
<v Sam>he's been very anti-MAGA.

01:21:05.460 --> 01:21:10.100
<v Sam>But I don't even know about these people at the top.

01:21:10.200 --> 01:21:14.940
<v Sam>I mean, I guess you should look into it, but I don't know. Crazy stuff.

01:21:15.540 --> 01:21:16.480
<v Ivan>It is crazy stuff.

01:21:17.820 --> 01:21:22.920
<v Sam>Okay. Should, should, should, should, should I find something else to talk about to finish things up?

01:21:23.560 --> 01:21:25.080
<v Ivan>Uh, let's see. Uh,

01:21:30.340 --> 01:21:30.340
<v Ivan>yeah.

01:21:31.200 --> 01:21:31.600
<v Sam>Yeah.

01:21:31.760 --> 01:21:32.860
<v Ivan>Because I picked that one too.

01:21:32.860 --> 01:21:40.300
<v Sam>Yeah, you've been picking everything, you know, and I feel like I have a duty to pick something.

01:21:40.960 --> 01:21:49.940
<v Sam>And look, I'll be a lighter, fluffier thing again.

01:21:50.680 --> 01:21:53.660
<v Sam>Just an off news. Yesterday morning.

01:21:54.600 --> 01:22:00.900
<v Sam>It was announced that, and this hits one of my special interests,

01:22:01.340 --> 01:22:08.580
<v Sam>Alex and I, amongst the other shows that we're watching, we're making our way through Doctor Who.

01:22:08.740 --> 01:22:11.780
<v Sam>From the very beginning, the 1960s Doctor Who's.

01:22:11.940 --> 01:22:12.060
<v Ivan>Okay.

01:22:12.200 --> 01:22:17.040
<v Sam>We're actually into the 70s at this point. We're into the third Doctor in the 1970s at this point.

01:22:17.040 --> 01:22:26.000
<v Sam>But it is somewhat famous that a significant portion of the episodes from the

01:22:26.000 --> 01:22:30.660
<v Sam>1960s, the first and second Doctors in Doctor Who, are missing.

01:22:31.520 --> 01:22:39.540
<v Sam>Because the BBC, at one point, to save costs...

01:22:40.300 --> 01:22:40.480
<v Ivan>Trashed them?

01:22:40.680 --> 01:22:45.520
<v Sam>Yes. Well, not trashed. They reused the videotape. they're like oh.

01:22:45.520 --> 01:22:49.900
<v Ivan>Yeah and that's a common thing it wasn't just a bbc that's a common thing that happened.

01:22:49.900 --> 01:22:52.940
<v Sam>Yeah like a lot of the tonight show

01:22:52.940 --> 01:22:58.240
<v Sam>is missing for that same reason yeah a lot of american shows but you know basically

01:22:58.240 --> 01:23:03.500
<v Sam>they were like oh we we're we need to make this new show go get some scrap tape

01:23:03.500 --> 01:23:09.700
<v Sam>from that room over there and you know so they they taped over a bunch of these

01:23:09.700 --> 01:23:11.700
<v Sam>episodes so they're lost.

01:23:11.940 --> 01:23:15.820
<v Sam>And, you know, some were able to be recovered because they'd been distributed

01:23:15.820 --> 01:23:22.340
<v Sam>overseas and people found them in archives in Australia and Africa and wherever.

01:23:23.160 --> 01:23:25.040
<v Sam>But there were...

01:23:26.150 --> 01:23:32.430
<v Sam>It had been 13 years since the last one of these missing episodes had been found.

01:23:33.890 --> 01:23:38.870
<v Sam>But yesterday, it was announced that two more were found. Two more of these

01:23:38.870 --> 01:23:40.970
<v Sam>lost episodes. Oh, cool.

01:23:41.690 --> 01:23:48.390
<v Sam>And as it turns out, this was not in some TV station archive overseas where

01:23:48.390 --> 01:23:51.730
<v Sam>these things were shipped for broadcast in some other country.

01:23:51.730 --> 01:23:58.670
<v Sam>This was a private collector who had had these in their personal stash along

01:23:58.670 --> 01:24:02.390
<v Sam>with thousands of other, you know, they were a collector.

01:24:02.590 --> 01:24:07.630
<v Sam>They were a collector of rare film and videotape and other stuff.

01:24:08.030 --> 01:24:14.130
<v Sam>And they apparently were reluctant to come forward while they were alive.

01:24:14.870 --> 01:24:18.110
<v Sam>But once they died because there's some

01:24:18.110 --> 01:24:20.890
<v Sam>question on the legality of having possession of some

01:24:20.890 --> 01:24:24.230
<v Sam>of these things okay oh now

01:24:24.230 --> 01:24:27.030
<v Sam>now the bbc has said you know don't

01:24:27.030 --> 01:24:29.850
<v Sam>worry about it if you've got these things we'll be grateful to have them back

01:24:29.850 --> 01:24:34.830
<v Sam>just give them back you know but right but there's some question um anyway the

01:24:34.830 --> 01:24:41.590
<v Sam>guy died and his estate was going through his archives and got in touch with

01:24:41.590 --> 01:24:47.490
<v Sam>some film archival organization that's dedicated towards saving,

01:24:47.490 --> 01:24:48.630
<v Sam>you know,

01:24:48.830 --> 01:24:51.190
<v Sam>historical stuff like this.

01:24:51.470 --> 01:24:55.150
<v Sam>Okay. And they'd been going through his archives and finding stuff.

01:24:55.310 --> 01:25:01.050
<v Sam>And there may be other things as well in here, but amongst them were two of

01:25:01.050 --> 01:25:06.650
<v Sam>the archival, or two of the missing episodes. And let me be specific.

01:25:07.390 --> 01:25:12.210
<v Sam>It was from 19...

01:25:14.530 --> 01:25:20.070
<v Sam>Oh, come on. You know, if you're going to write an article about this,

01:25:20.230 --> 01:25:23.790
<v Sam>put the specifics in here. Let me find a better article.

01:25:24.510 --> 01:25:30.490
<v Sam>This one has some of the information, but not the specific information that I wanted to say. Okay.

01:25:31.670 --> 01:25:36.050
<v Sam>You know, websites suck. I go to another news site and it's full of pop-ups

01:25:36.050 --> 01:25:44.130
<v Sam>and like subscribe here and doesn't even have the article that I want. And okay.

01:25:51.520 --> 01:25:55.980
<v Sam>Oh, and I have to say I'm okay with cookies. That's important.

01:25:56.900 --> 01:26:03.040
<v Sam>Okay, these are from the third season from 1965. It's the first and third episodes

01:26:03.040 --> 01:26:07.440
<v Sam>of the 12-part epic called The Daleks' Master Plan.

01:26:08.460 --> 01:26:12.220
<v Sam>And so, like, more than half of this story is missing.

01:26:12.400 --> 01:26:16.260
<v Sam>Alex and I already watched this story. We watch reconstructions and stuff because

01:26:16.260 --> 01:26:22.780
<v Sam>people have made like take surviving snapshots and and put put put it together

01:26:22.780 --> 01:26:29.220
<v Sam>with because all of the audio survived because people at home would turn on

01:26:29.220 --> 01:26:31.540
<v Sam>their tape recorders and record the audio.

01:26:31.840 --> 01:26:35.420
<v Sam>So 100 percent of the audio survived from all of these.

01:26:35.720 --> 01:26:36.440
<v Ivan>But it's the images.

01:26:36.780 --> 01:26:39.420
<v Sam>But it's the images that were missing. And for some of them,

01:26:39.580 --> 01:26:45.080
<v Sam>they had like production pictures where, you know, there were still images available.

01:26:45.460 --> 01:26:47.100
<v Sam>And sometimes there were little

01:26:47.100 --> 01:26:50.820
<v Sam>clips because a clip was used in a trailer and the trailer survived.

01:26:51.220 --> 01:26:54.680
<v Sam>So there were a few seconds here and there. And so people have made reconstruction.

01:26:54.680 --> 01:26:59.600
<v Sam>So we watched the reconstructions of the missing episodes as we went through these.

01:27:00.040 --> 01:27:04.000
<v Sam>But anyway, so private collection, they found this. They're restoring them.

01:27:04.140 --> 01:27:06.280
<v Sam>They will be available to the public in April.

01:27:06.940 --> 01:27:09.940
<v Sam>And yeah so cool news i

01:27:09.940 --> 01:27:13.400
<v Sam>guess it's one of those things where you

01:27:13.400 --> 01:27:16.800
<v Sam>know people had people had been starting to give up hope that

01:27:16.800 --> 01:27:20.440
<v Sam>any more of these missing episodes would ever been found but would ever be found

01:27:20.440 --> 01:27:24.200
<v Sam>because there were 13 years but with this people are like you know they're probably

01:27:24.200 --> 01:27:30.060
<v Sam>more in private collections still out there that people are just you know they

01:27:30.060 --> 01:27:33.240
<v Sam>don't want to give them up while they're alive but once they die maybe they'll

01:27:33.240 --> 01:27:35.320
<v Sam>come to light you know whatever.

01:27:36.700 --> 01:27:38.000
<v Sam>And, you know, so we'll see.

01:27:38.140 --> 01:27:41.420
<v Sam>Now, you know, these 1960s episodes...

01:27:42.740 --> 01:27:49.740
<v Sam>You know, it's a, it's an acquired taste. This, you know, the special effects were horrible.

01:27:50.800 --> 01:27:54.900
<v Sam>The acting was not super great. Like, you know, some people,

01:27:55.100 --> 01:27:56.820
<v Sam>some of the actors were better than others.

01:27:57.280 --> 01:28:04.700
<v Sam>The plots were relatively thin, very slowly paced. Like this is a 12 part episode, 12 part story.

01:28:04.920 --> 01:28:10.040
<v Sam>Each episode is like 20 something minutes long. and, you know,

01:28:10.100 --> 01:28:13.820
<v Sam>these artificial, like, cliffhangers to draw it out.

01:28:14.040 --> 01:28:19.780
<v Sam>And, you know, Alex and I have been enjoying them because you can make fun of

01:28:19.780 --> 01:28:21.580
<v Sam>the things that are bad about it.

01:28:22.180 --> 01:28:26.040
<v Sam>But anyway, they found two new episodes. So that's exciting.

01:28:26.440 --> 01:28:30.740
<v Sam>And maybe someday somebody will find those Johnny Carson episodes,

01:28:31.180 --> 01:28:36.300
<v Sam>those, you know, early Tonight Show episodes, you know, or other things.

01:28:36.300 --> 01:28:43.420
<v Sam>But it is amazing to think about how, you know, these aren't that long ago.

01:28:44.000 --> 01:28:47.660
<v Sam>And it is hard to find some of this stuff.

01:28:47.760 --> 01:28:52.700
<v Sam>I remember there was another story in the U.S.

01:28:52.980 --> 01:28:55.360
<v Sam>And I forget which shows this impacted.

01:28:55.980 --> 01:29:07.240
<v Sam>But there were a bunch. There was some lady that just literally VHS taped everything

01:29:07.240 --> 01:29:11.260
<v Sam>she watched for like 30 years before she died.

01:29:11.380 --> 01:29:11.940
<v Ivan>That's a lot of tapes.

01:29:12.240 --> 01:29:19.100
<v Sam>That's a lot of tapes. She had rooms full of VHS tapes of like everything.

01:29:19.100 --> 01:29:28.740
<v Sam>And her collection her collection ended up being the only remaining like and,

01:29:29.740 --> 01:29:36.480
<v Sam>archive tape of some like critically important historical episodes of like several

01:29:36.480 --> 01:29:42.380
<v Sam>TV shows and some news events and some other stuff that turned out nobody was

01:29:42.380 --> 01:29:45.200
<v Sam>keeping this shit, but she was, you know?

01:29:45.660 --> 01:29:48.460
<v Ivan>Look, I, I, I still, I remember that back then.

01:29:48.560 --> 01:29:53.800
<v Ivan>And I, I, I, I, I don't know what happened with all the tapes that I made, but I, I had,

01:29:54.940 --> 01:29:58.120
<v Ivan>collection of stuff that i taped that

01:29:58.120 --> 01:30:01.700
<v Ivan>was there were several hundred tapes there okay

01:30:01.700 --> 01:30:04.520
<v Ivan>of many different things like that and some

01:30:04.520 --> 01:30:10.180
<v Ivan>of them were in one tape there probably had been like multiple episodes of things

01:30:10.180 --> 01:30:14.800
<v Ivan>because the tapes were multi-hour tapes and so you know you you just wouldn't

01:30:14.800 --> 01:30:19.240
<v Ivan>use one tape for something maybe i recorded four or five episodes of a tv show

01:30:19.240 --> 01:30:21.960
<v Ivan>on on a tape or something. Oh, my God.

01:30:22.340 --> 01:30:26.460
<v Ivan>Oh, my God. You have a tape. What the fuck is on that tape?

01:30:26.540 --> 01:30:31.960
<v Sam>I've got a case full of tapes here. I'm picking out two at random.

01:30:32.340 --> 01:30:36.500
<v Sam>Well, this one's not labeled, so who knows what that is. Let's find.

01:30:36.880 --> 01:30:40.620
<v Sam>These are labeled only with Roman numerals, so I don't know what those are.

01:30:41.020 --> 01:30:50.400
<v Sam>But the one I picked here, It has a November of 1988 edition of a TV show called

01:30:50.400 --> 01:30:54.540
<v Sam>World Monitor that apparently my dad was a guest on,

01:30:54.680 --> 01:30:57.860
<v Sam>and The Wizard of Oz taped off TV.

01:31:00.140 --> 01:31:01.000
<v Ivan>There you go.

01:31:01.240 --> 01:31:06.380
<v Sam>Let's see what else we got. Let me try to pick up another random tape here.

01:31:07.980 --> 01:31:14.320
<v Sam>Oh, that's off a camcorder, something with my dad. Oh, this one's a classic.

01:31:15.260 --> 01:31:15.460
<v Ivan>Yeah.

01:31:17.180 --> 01:31:25.360
<v Sam>November 26th, 1988. My appearance on the It's Academic game show in the Washington.

01:31:25.580 --> 01:31:30.640
<v Ivan>D.C. area. Hey, we got to digitize that. Come on.

01:31:31.020 --> 01:31:35.380
<v Sam>And also on the same tape, Dallas, the early years.

01:31:36.140 --> 01:31:36.540
<v Ivan>Ha ha!

01:31:38.930 --> 01:31:41.610
<v Ivan>Anyway, hey, we got to digitize that one.

01:31:41.870 --> 01:31:49.930
<v Sam>I think, yeah, I think somebody else digitized that already,

01:31:49.930 --> 01:31:51.730
<v Sam>but I don't know if I know where to find it.

01:31:51.850 --> 01:31:57.650
<v Sam>I have some still pictures from it, but I haven't seen that video in a while.

01:31:58.150 --> 01:32:04.170
<v Ivan>Of course, he also has these digital audio tapes of our old Curmudgeon Corner

01:32:04.170 --> 01:32:06.130
<v Ivan>podcast somewhere, which, you know.

01:32:07.150 --> 01:32:12.950
<v Sam>Someday maybe it'll be found or or you know maybe it was lost in a move someday i don't know.

01:32:12.950 --> 01:32:18.110
<v Ivan>Like or maybe they or maybe we'll go put pop the tapes in like as happened with

01:32:18.110 --> 01:32:22.970
<v Ivan>like old backup tapes that i i had that once happened i popped in the tapes that they were blank.

01:32:24.030 --> 01:32:25.530
<v Sam>Right that would suck.

01:32:25.530 --> 01:32:30.950
<v Ivan>Yeah all right well i think we we can end it we.

01:32:30.950 --> 01:32:34.150
<v Sam>Can end it early we don't we We don't have to stretch it out to make our.

01:32:34.150 --> 01:32:36.510
<v Ivan>Two-hour money. No, you didn't have things.

01:32:36.550 --> 01:32:39.730
<v Sam>I was ill-prepared. I was ill-prepared.

01:32:40.030 --> 01:32:46.550
<v Sam>We did have that plantier guy making comments about how AI would marginalize,

01:32:46.550 --> 01:32:48.050
<v Sam>like, smart women or something.

01:32:48.770 --> 01:32:49.950
<v Ivan>No, smart people.

01:32:50.210 --> 01:32:53.770
<v Sam>Smart people in general. Well, he specifically called out women, too.

01:32:54.130 --> 01:32:57.190
<v Ivan>Oh, he did. I didn't hear that part.

01:32:57.190 --> 01:33:03.230
<v Sam>Oh, yeah, yeah. He was like, this will, this will enable the,

01:33:03.390 --> 01:33:09.610
<v Sam>this will increase the power of working class men and diminish the power of

01:33:09.610 --> 01:33:10.650
<v Sam>like those uppity women.

01:33:15.210 --> 01:33:16.950
<v Ivan>Yep. Awesome, huh?

01:33:17.910 --> 01:33:24.970
<v Sam>Very much so. Anyway, shall we end? Are you looking for anything new?

01:33:25.270 --> 01:33:28.370
<v Ivan>No, no, we don't have anything. Let's just wrap it up.

01:33:28.370 --> 01:33:32.770
<v Sam>You know, you were complaining just like last week or the week before about

01:33:32.770 --> 01:33:35.150
<v Sam>all these crazy weeks with so much happening.

01:33:35.270 --> 01:33:39.410
<v Ivan>You know, I already picked a couple of subjects. It's okay. We can end it early.

01:33:39.410 --> 01:33:44.170
<v Sam>Well, you know, but the thing is, like, I honestly don't feel like there was.

01:33:44.170 --> 01:33:49.430
<v Sam>I mean, obviously, the war in Iran is huge, but I don't feel like there was

01:33:49.430 --> 01:33:51.910
<v Sam>anything else really big and exciting.

01:33:52.050 --> 01:33:54.990
<v Sam>I was looking through lists of news, and I was like, I don't care about that.

01:33:55.050 --> 01:33:57.290
<v Sam>I don't care about that. I don't need to talk about that.

01:33:57.630 --> 01:34:00.570
<v Ivan>Okay, that, you know, okay. So we can end it early.

01:34:00.750 --> 01:34:01.210
<v Sam>You know?

01:34:01.550 --> 01:34:03.150
<v Ivan>It's good. It's not a big deal.

01:34:03.630 --> 01:34:08.510
<v Sam>Could go back to murder by death. No, we'll leave that for next week, like we said. Okay.

01:34:09.230 --> 01:34:15.030
<v Sam>Thank you for joining us for Curmudgeons Corner again. go to curmudgeons-corner.com.

01:34:15.570 --> 01:34:19.170
<v Sam>You can find all the ways to contact us. You can find our archives,

01:34:19.370 --> 01:34:21.970
<v Sam>you can find transcripts, you can find all that fun stuff.

01:34:22.230 --> 01:34:28.610
<v Sam>You can also find a link to our Patreon where you can give us money and at various levels,

01:34:29.500 --> 01:34:34.480
<v Sam>You can get us mentioning you on the show, us ringing a bell,

01:34:34.880 --> 01:34:40.340
<v Sam>us sending you a postcard, us sending you a mug, all these exciting things.

01:34:40.620 --> 01:34:47.540
<v Sam>Or at $2 a month or more, or if you just ask nicely, you can get invited to

01:34:47.540 --> 01:34:51.340
<v Sam>our Commissions Core Slack where Yvonne and I and others are chatting and sharing

01:34:51.340 --> 01:34:52.820
<v Sam>links throughout the week.

01:34:53.200 --> 01:34:57.460
<v Sam>So Yvonne, I guess for our one last thing, what's something fun and exciting

01:34:57.460 --> 01:35:00.060
<v Sam>from the slack that we have not mentioned on the show.

01:35:00.300 --> 01:35:07.160
<v Ivan>Well, Sam went to the post office and there's a sign there, okay,

01:35:07.400 --> 01:35:10.940
<v Ivan>about what to do to get your packages ready.

01:35:11.340 --> 01:35:14.880
<v Ivan>Is your packages. Is your packages.

01:35:14.980 --> 01:35:15.920
<v Sam>Yes, is your packages.

01:35:16.480 --> 01:35:23.460
<v Ivan>Is your packages. And returns ready to mail. Tapped up. Packaged. Label tapped down.

01:35:24.280 --> 01:35:28.760
<v Ivan>Written addressed. Tape is for sale on the retail wall.

01:35:29.400 --> 01:35:34.540
<v Ivan>Please only service pets allowed inside. Thank you. So you tapped it,

01:35:34.640 --> 01:35:36.920
<v Ivan>huh? Did you tap your packages?

01:35:37.160 --> 01:35:39.260
<v Sam>I tapped it at the post office, indeed.

01:35:39.500 --> 01:35:45.040
<v Ivan>Nice. Nice. Very nice, Sam. Very nice. Very good.

01:35:45.200 --> 01:35:47.100
<v Sam>You know, they needed to see my package.

01:35:47.600 --> 01:35:49.540
<v Ivan>Yes, they needed to see your package.

01:35:51.100 --> 01:35:54.200
<v Ivan>Make sure it was tapped up. Another thing

01:35:54.200 --> 01:36:00.820
<v Ivan>that I found kind of funny was that Musk actually somewhere admitted that his

01:36:00.820 --> 01:36:07.520
<v Ivan>whole thing that he's done with XAI and how he's decided to try to make it into

01:36:07.520 --> 01:36:12.180
<v Ivan>some kind of like unwoke chatbot.

01:36:12.360 --> 01:36:17.400
<v Ivan>I guess it's led to an exodus of employees that he really doesn't have.

01:36:17.820 --> 01:36:17.900
<v Sam>Surprise.

01:36:17.900 --> 01:36:23.580
<v Ivan>Yeah, that they don't really want to work over there to do the shit that he

01:36:23.580 --> 01:36:27.280
<v Ivan>wants XAI to do. How shocking.

01:36:28.100 --> 01:36:34.580
<v Sam>You know, but isn't his whole mode of operation to fire everybody anyway? So what's the big deal?

01:36:34.600 --> 01:36:38.080
<v Ivan>Well, the thing is that, you know, there's a thing of like him wanting to fire

01:36:38.080 --> 01:36:40.360
<v Ivan>people. The thing is that he started this company himself.

01:36:40.540 --> 01:36:46.020
<v Ivan>So he had been doing the hiring. The problem is that he can't keep the people he wants to keep.

01:36:48.420 --> 01:36:51.340
<v Sam>Well then you know he didn't really want them after

01:36:51.340 --> 01:36:57.100
<v Sam>all right although apparently from what you sent over to the slack he is going

01:36:57.100 --> 01:37:02.400
<v Sam>through he is ordering people to go back through old interviews yeah for people

01:37:02.400 --> 01:37:09.040
<v Sam>that they turned down to reevaluate them and right maybe ask them to come after all.

01:37:09.040 --> 01:37:17.920
<v Ivan>Yes it's so stupid i don't know how the hell he keeps any but i it's just it's just,

01:37:19.550 --> 01:37:22.870
<v Ivan>It's amazing that any he runs actually runs.

01:37:25.470 --> 01:37:29.410
<v Sam>Yes. And I don't know.

01:37:29.630 --> 01:37:37.550
<v Sam>There's just so much that right now I feel like, I mean, not only his companies,

01:37:37.770 --> 01:37:43.890
<v Sam>but other companies too, are trying to figure out a lot of things.

01:37:44.730 --> 01:37:49.830
<v Sam>Specifically in response to ai but also in response to trump also in response

01:37:49.830 --> 01:37:55.490
<v Sam>to other things and there's a lot of there's a lot of flailing going on i mean

01:37:55.490 --> 01:38:01.490
<v Sam>some of the stuff will stick and work some of it will not and i don't know it

01:38:01.490 --> 01:38:03.790
<v Sam>seems like we're it's a very chaotic time,

01:38:04.850 --> 01:38:10.170
<v Sam>and i feel like we're in for more chaos before things stabilize again i don't know.

01:38:10.170 --> 01:38:14.570
<v Ivan>I think a A lot of it is just a lack of understanding what things are and what

01:38:14.570 --> 01:38:16.890
<v Ivan>they can do and what they can't do and so forth.

01:38:17.050 --> 01:38:24.190
<v Ivan>And, you know, and we have had like waves of tech that have been confusing in this way before.

01:38:24.910 --> 01:38:29.470
<v Ivan>I mean, look, remember the dot bomb, the dot bomb, the dot, the dot,

01:38:29.590 --> 01:38:35.450
<v Ivan>the dot, the dot com crash in part was because we kept building shit.

01:38:35.570 --> 01:38:37.330
<v Ivan>We didn't really understand what the fuck we were doing.

01:38:37.470 --> 01:38:40.410
<v Ivan>We're just playing with it. We didn't know what could make money,

01:38:40.570 --> 01:38:43.170
<v Ivan>what didn't make money, what was value, what was not value.

01:38:45.590 --> 01:38:52.030
<v Ivan>It was just a lot of that. I think that you've got a lot of that confusion in

01:38:52.030 --> 01:38:53.150
<v Ivan>a lot of different places.

01:38:53.930 --> 01:38:58.290
<v Ivan>And the one thing that I might take away from all of this shit that they were

01:38:58.290 --> 01:39:02.930
<v Ivan>talking about recently, most people, is this lack of understanding that tools are tools.

01:39:03.530 --> 01:39:07.910
<v Ivan>And that, you know what, if you give an idiot a tool, it doesn't matter how

01:39:07.910 --> 01:39:12.010
<v Ivan>good a tool is, the idiot is not going to get value out of the tool because the guy's an idiot!

01:39:15.720 --> 01:39:18.200
<v Ivan>It doesn't matter how good a tool it is.

01:39:20.820 --> 01:39:21.960
<v Sam>But, yeah.

01:39:22.220 --> 01:39:26.280
<v Ivan>But a lot of people over time, I mean, this is historical.

01:39:28.580 --> 01:39:34.000
<v Ivan>Keep thinking that the tool will overcome the stupidity of the person there.

01:39:34.160 --> 01:39:38.520
<v Ivan>I still remember this was a big thing in the 1980s with GM with robots.

01:39:39.160 --> 01:39:42.460
<v Ivan>They were going to robotize the entire production line, blah,

01:39:42.560 --> 01:39:45.240
<v Ivan>blah, blah. We're going to, you know, we're going to take the people out.

01:39:45.300 --> 01:39:48.700
<v Ivan>This is the whole thing. And it turned into a fucking disaster.

01:39:49.180 --> 01:39:49.560
<v Sam>Okay.

01:39:50.180 --> 01:39:54.500
<v Ivan>It turned into a complete disaster where a lot of the robots had to be scrapped.

01:39:55.390 --> 01:39:59.650
<v Ivan>Because even still, the robots depended on a proper process,

01:39:59.650 --> 01:40:04.330
<v Ivan>somebody telling them what to do correctly, managing it, doing it.

01:40:04.450 --> 01:40:10.270
<v Ivan>And in the end, the robots just were not that as efficient as they thought they would be.

01:40:10.550 --> 01:40:15.910
<v Ivan>So it was but it was another thing where it's not that the robots didn't have their place.

01:40:16.770 --> 01:40:21.910
<v Ivan>It's just that everybody overestimated what the robots could do and then wound

01:40:21.910 --> 01:40:25.750
<v Ivan>up having to scrap a whole bunch of that automation because the automation turned

01:40:25.750 --> 01:40:28.130
<v Ivan>out to be more expensive, wasteful, and stupid.

01:40:28.130 --> 01:40:33.790
<v Sam>Well, and it's also a question of timing, too. Like, some things that were not

01:40:33.790 --> 01:40:39.650
<v Sam>actually practical and the best way to do things at point A in time,

01:40:40.090 --> 01:40:42.830
<v Sam>three or four years later actually were.

01:40:43.250 --> 01:40:43.730
<v Ivan>Correct.

01:40:43.950 --> 01:40:48.790
<v Sam>You know, because people were just getting ahead of where the technology actually was.

01:40:48.870 --> 01:40:52.130
<v Ivan>Yeah, they were getting ahead. They were getting behind. It's one of those things.

01:40:52.230 --> 01:40:55.490
<v Ivan>I mean, shit. Yeah, I mean, it's just engaging that.

01:40:55.610 --> 01:40:59.330
<v Ivan>Look, it's part of what's happened with the EV industry like right now.

01:41:01.730 --> 01:41:06.550
<v Ivan>It's not that electric cars are disappearing or like people.

01:41:06.630 --> 01:41:07.670
<v Ivan>People get all the wrong impressions.

01:41:07.770 --> 01:41:09.670
<v Ivan>Oh, my God, nobody's buying an electric car. That's not the case.

01:41:09.730 --> 01:41:10.470
<v Ivan>That's not what's happening.

01:41:10.610 --> 01:41:14.810
<v Ivan>It's a thing of like where the market is and whether you're trying to sell too

01:41:14.810 --> 01:41:16.450
<v Ivan>many of them or too little of them.

01:41:16.610 --> 01:41:19.750
<v Ivan>We had a period where there were not enough cars. There was more demand and

01:41:19.750 --> 01:41:24.730
<v Ivan>prices went up. And now there's a period where all of a sudden the man does not cut up to where...

01:41:25.930 --> 01:41:29.250
<v Ivan>Production is and so it creates

01:41:29.250 --> 01:41:34.350
<v Ivan>these these issues with you know with companies right now where they're over

01:41:34.350 --> 01:41:38.890
<v Ivan>you know they overbuilt and now they're scaling back and then i'm going to tell

01:41:38.890 --> 01:41:44.190
<v Ivan>you right now with gas i can guarantee you one thing gas at this price guess

01:41:44.190 --> 01:41:47.130
<v Ivan>what's going to get a boost yeah.

01:41:47.130 --> 01:41:53.850
<v Sam>Like i i i'm i haven't i haven't pumped gas since i bought my car in july.

01:41:54.350 --> 01:41:54.790
<v Ivan>Yeah.

01:41:55.410 --> 01:41:59.730
<v Sam>And I'm quite happy with that. I don't miss it one tiny bit.

01:42:00.250 --> 01:42:04.210
<v Ivan>Nope. My wife's just said the same thing. She doesn't miss the fucking going

01:42:04.210 --> 01:42:08.130
<v Ivan>to a gas. I mean, she was always, like, horrible about running low on gas regularly.

01:42:08.450 --> 01:42:11.610
<v Ivan>And that the fact that she doesn't have to worry about it anymore is just.

01:42:11.730 --> 01:42:17.550
<v Sam>Like, so liberating. Yeah. And just plug it in overnight. I'm good. You know?

01:42:17.690 --> 01:42:21.210
<v Ivan>It's here at home. And you just plug it in over there. And the car's ready to go. That's it.

01:42:22.310 --> 01:42:23.910
<v Sam>Yeah. So. anyway.

01:42:24.590 --> 01:42:25.090
<v Ivan>All right.

01:42:25.330 --> 01:42:28.470
<v Sam>Okay. We are done. Thank you everybody for joining us for yet another Curmudgeon's

01:42:28.470 --> 01:42:30.490
<v Sam>Corner. Stay safe. Have fun. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,

01:42:30.490 --> 01:42:32.610
<v Sam>blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Happy Pi Day.

01:42:33.710 --> 01:42:34.810
<v Ivan>Pi, Pi Day.

01:42:34.930 --> 01:42:37.910
<v Sam>By the time you listen to this, it won't be Pi Day anymore. It won't be Pi Day.

01:42:38.010 --> 01:42:41.610
<v Sam>But you know, we're recording it on Pi Day and that's all that really matters, right?

01:42:42.430 --> 01:42:45.790
<v Sam>Our experience is what matters, not your experience as a listener.

01:42:46.470 --> 01:42:46.830
<v Ivan>Exactly.

01:42:47.090 --> 01:42:49.890
<v Sam>Who the fuck cares about you? That's, it's all about us.

01:42:51.140 --> 01:42:53.680
<v Ivan>Oh, actually, as a matter of fact, as I just finished saying that,

01:42:53.820 --> 01:42:56.240
<v Ivan>there's an article like right now that came out on Bloomberg.

01:42:56.740 --> 01:43:00.980
<v Ivan>Surging gas prices reignite EV interest. No shit.

01:43:01.660 --> 01:43:08.400
<v Ivan>Maybe that's what Trump is trying to reignite the EV industry. That's what he's doing.

01:43:08.400 --> 01:43:09.800
<v Sam>Well this.

01:43:09.800 --> 01:43:15.040
<v Ivan>Is this is he's playing chess sam it's 5d chess that's.

01:43:15.040 --> 01:43:18.680
<v Sam>What it is the 5g 5 5d chess

01:43:18.680 --> 01:43:21.600
<v Sam>theory that i heard about

01:43:21.600 --> 01:43:25.060
<v Sam>this is that he is intentionally raising

01:43:25.060 --> 01:43:28.080
<v Sam>oil prices because that will put

01:43:28.080 --> 01:43:30.840
<v Sam>additional first of all you know he

01:43:30.840 --> 01:43:33.880
<v Sam>relaxed some of the sanctions on russia

01:43:33.880 --> 01:43:36.660
<v Sam>uh so they could sell some oil so that helps out

01:43:36.660 --> 01:43:39.840
<v Sam>putin also the increased the increased

01:43:39.840 --> 01:43:43.300
<v Sam>oil prices will put a lot of pressure on europe and

01:43:43.300 --> 01:43:46.240
<v Sam>further weaken them and cause them

01:43:46.240 --> 01:43:52.900
<v Sam>to reassess their positions vis-a-vis ukraine and russia and nato and everything

01:43:52.900 --> 01:44:01.560
<v Sam>else and so and also while he doesn't like oil prices are not popular amongst

01:44:01.560 --> 01:44:04.940
<v Sam>the high oil prices are not popular amongst the general populace,

01:44:05.140 --> 01:44:13.240
<v Sam>he has a bunch of buddies who own oil companies who will enjoy the higher prices.

01:44:13.520 --> 01:44:18.040
<v Sam>And so that's what matters here. And that's the 5G chess that's going on here,

01:44:18.560 --> 01:44:21.760
<v Sam>or 5D chess, not G. 5G is a different thing.

01:44:22.480 --> 01:44:25.440
<v Ivan>He'd probably play 5G chess, actually. What are we talking about?

01:44:25.800 --> 01:44:30.320
<v Sam>So it's helping all the people he cares about. It's helping Putin.

01:44:30.760 --> 01:44:35.920
<v Sam>It's hurting the Europeans. It's helping his buddies at the oil companies. Done.

01:44:37.420 --> 01:44:39.600
<v Sam>There you go. Okay, we're done.

01:44:42.400 --> 01:44:47.000
<v Sam>Yes, sure. Okay, goodbye, everybody. We'll see you next week.

01:44:47.320 --> 01:44:49.460
<v Sam>We're out of here. Yeah, bye.

01:45:20.140 --> 01:45:23.380
<v Sam>Okay, that's it. Heading stop. Later, Yvonne. Have a good weekend.

01:45:23.860 --> 01:45:24.260
<v Ivan>Okay.

01:45:24.440 --> 01:45:24.560
<v Sam>Bye.

01:45:25.060 --> 01:45:25.460
<v Ivan>Bye.

