WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:02.250 I can't hear you. Hold on. 00:00:02.750 --> 00:00:04.150 I can hear you. 00:00:04.330 --> 00:00:07.270 Ah, that's why. Hello. Hello. 00:00:08.390 --> 00:00:09.510 Can you hear me now? 00:00:10.390 --> 00:00:11.790 Yes, I can hear you now. 00:00:12.010 --> 00:00:16.910 I can hear you now. You're over there watching some program about kids not having 00:00:16.910 --> 00:00:19.810 to cross the border four times to go to school. 00:00:19.990 --> 00:00:27.370 Yeah, yeah. It was a CGP gray clip on TikTok. His YouTube's great. You should check it out. 00:00:27.550 --> 00:00:31.210 I have seen some. something from him. 00:00:31.310 --> 00:00:35.110 Okay. Yeah, I had no idea you were there. Okay. And then all of a sudden, 00:00:35.170 --> 00:00:38.430 I'm like, wait a second, the live stream just came up. Okay. 00:00:39.070 --> 00:00:41.210 Let's get everything toasted. 00:00:41.490 --> 00:00:43.370 Toasted. Okay. All right. Well, that's one. 00:00:43.530 --> 00:00:48.910 Toasted. Toasted. Here we go. Here we go. 00:01:08.710 --> 00:01:17.030 Welcome to Curmudgeons Corner for Sunday, January 4th, 2026. 00:01:19.310 --> 00:01:24.830 Welcome to another Curmudgeons Corner. This is Sam Minter and Yvonne Boas here with us. Hello, Yvonne. 00:01:25.690 --> 00:01:29.090 Hello. This year already feels way too long. 00:01:30.270 --> 00:01:32.010 It's only been four days. 00:01:32.150 --> 00:01:33.370 It's only been four days! 00:01:34.190 --> 00:01:36.330 Not even the full fourth day yet. 00:01:36.650 --> 00:01:37.030 No! 00:01:37.750 --> 00:01:41.230 Anyway, this is another of our special shows. 00:01:41.610 --> 00:01:47.330 This is our review of our 2025 predictions. 00:01:48.010 --> 00:01:53.930 Now, we did have at least one significant news event since last week's show. 00:01:54.850 --> 00:02:01.910 We went into Venezuela and took Maduro, and there's undoubtedly lots to talk about that. 00:02:02.410 --> 00:02:06.550 We've got a big review show to do, though, Yvonne. Do you want to say anything 00:02:06.550 --> 00:02:10.230 about Venezuela before we move on, or can we save that till next week? 00:02:11.420 --> 00:02:14.840 I mean, there may be more developments by next week, too. 00:02:16.660 --> 00:02:21.740 Here's the one weird thing about this whole Venezuela thing, okay? Right? 00:02:22.360 --> 00:02:25.420 Or maybe it's not weird. I guess it's actually expected. 00:02:25.700 --> 00:02:28.880 I believe that when I spoke about this on the show, 00:02:29.580 --> 00:02:36.220 sometime well before this happened right now, My main concern was, 00:02:36.540 --> 00:02:43.880 it's not that Maduro isn't an illegal dictator that I think should be removed. 00:02:44.380 --> 00:02:51.860 There has been a massive exodus of people. Look, I know people that have died under Maduro, okay? 00:02:52.060 --> 00:02:56.960 People that have had to go into exile because being persecuted by Maduro, 00:02:57.200 --> 00:03:02.660 okay? This isn't some kind of abstract thing that it is for most people in the 00:03:02.660 --> 00:03:05.760 United States that are talking a lot about it and have no clue, okay? 00:03:06.240 --> 00:03:11.180 Oh, well, there is this duly elected person. The entire elections in Venezuela 00:03:11.180 --> 00:03:14.220 have been a fraud for 20 years, okay? 00:03:14.840 --> 00:03:19.960 They have, I mean, independent observers have said this repeatedly, 00:03:19.960 --> 00:03:24.980 that the elections have been a sham, all of them, okay? So don't tell me this 00:03:24.980 --> 00:03:27.360 thing, that there is some lawful government. 00:03:27.520 --> 00:03:31.360 He illegally took power. 00:03:32.540 --> 00:03:35.800 Chavez took it first, transferred to him, and he's kept it. 00:03:36.920 --> 00:03:42.900 And they have systematically done a campaign of terror against the population, 00:03:43.300 --> 00:03:45.400 jailed the opposition, murdered them, 00:03:46.140 --> 00:03:51.940 incited murder against people, persecuted them, and left people to die. 00:03:53.280 --> 00:03:56.480 Repeatedly that the the number the 00:03:56.480 --> 00:04:02.340 the diaspora of venezuelans that has occurred over the last 15 years is crazy 00:04:02.340 --> 00:04:07.360 okay you there has been no country that's experienced such a mass migration 00:04:07.360 --> 00:04:11.820 in the americas especially one that was as developed as venezuela in the last 00:04:11.820 --> 00:04:15.600 you know in history and so quickly. 00:04:16.240 --> 00:04:21.580 So, but my problems at the beginning was, well, 00:04:21.940 --> 00:04:26.500 if Trump is doing this, he's not doing it for any good reasons and probably 00:04:26.500 --> 00:04:31.980 has no plan other than some vague thing about we're going to be rich. 00:04:32.520 --> 00:04:38.720 Well, and I'll add, and we had a discussion on the curmudgeon's course slack about this. 00:04:38.900 --> 00:04:42.040 There's also process issues. I mean, there's like. 00:04:42.660 --> 00:04:49.500 Donald, whether or not even the international ones or not, the U.S. 00:04:49.660 --> 00:04:50.960 processes. Yes. 00:04:51.240 --> 00:04:55.300 Whether or not you agree with the ultimate goal. And I think there's, 00:04:55.380 --> 00:04:57.040 you know, there's multiple issues. 00:04:57.280 --> 00:05:02.860 There's there's whether you think, you know, it would be better if Maduro was gone. 00:05:03.420 --> 00:05:08.720 There's, do you think the U.S. should intervene in making sure Maduro is gone? 00:05:08.960 --> 00:05:13.280 And then there's the process. These are all independent questions, right? 00:05:13.740 --> 00:05:20.060 Then there's the question of what's the right way to do it and what's legal and what's not. 00:05:20.260 --> 00:05:25.460 And it's fairly clear that, you know, although I did see some legal analysis 00:05:25.460 --> 00:05:31.800 saying there is some debate even here, But Donald Trump did not follow any of 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:35.100 the processes you would expect to be followed to do this kind of stuff. 00:05:35.280 --> 00:05:42.840 Yes, 100%. He didn't go to Congress. He didn't build public support domestically. He didn't do Jack. 00:05:43.340 --> 00:05:47.960 I mean, what's the justification? How did he justify this for Americans? Okay? 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:51.500 Well, that's changed every 10 seconds. 00:05:51.680 --> 00:05:56.680 Yeah, but let me be clear. I've always said, what the— Listen, everybody—, 00:05:57.400 --> 00:06:00.500 It keeps making this too complicated. Trump is transactional, 00:06:00.880 --> 00:06:04.460 okay? As we all know. The transaction is super simple. 00:06:04.960 --> 00:06:07.380 Damn it. I shared with you. You guys don't understand. 00:06:08.160 --> 00:06:10.820 Trump Doral is in Doral. 00:06:12.200 --> 00:06:18.800 Doral is the biggest fucking community of the Venezuelan diaspora. 00:06:19.060 --> 00:06:24.780 A lot of those people have money. A lot of those people were members of the 00:06:24.780 --> 00:06:28.480 Trump fucking country club. God damn it. 00:06:29.280 --> 00:06:30.440 Uh-huh. Yeah. 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:36.220 This is transactional with those people that probably promised them riches, 00:06:36.880 --> 00:06:42.360 things, whatever. Hey, get us our country back and we'll make you rich. 00:06:42.980 --> 00:06:45.920 That's it. I guarantee you. 00:06:46.990 --> 00:06:48.630 There is nothing else. 00:06:49.250 --> 00:06:56.010 Right. Yeah. As usual, he's pushing the personal stuff you talked about. He's pushing oil. 00:06:56.330 --> 00:06:58.910 There's this. There's that. And the oil people don't even. 00:06:58.950 --> 00:06:59.610 Well, the oil part is. 00:07:00.050 --> 00:07:04.230 He's like having to like coerce the oil companies to like participate in this 00:07:04.230 --> 00:07:05.610 because they don't really want to anyway. 00:07:05.610 --> 00:07:08.830 The problem with the oil, OK, 00:07:09.050 --> 00:07:17.270 is that, you know, Venezuela had infrastructure and a very capable oil workforce 00:07:17.270 --> 00:07:22.730 that had been there up until the sometime in the 2000s. 00:07:23.270 --> 00:07:24.810 Decades of investment. 00:07:25.950 --> 00:07:33.390 A vertically integrated extraction, refining, distribution with Citgo in the 00:07:33.390 --> 00:07:39.070 United States as well. part of that, that generated quite a lot of money. 00:07:39.730 --> 00:07:46.650 And by the way, it was also the most efficient per employee oil company in the 00:07:46.650 --> 00:07:50.710 world back before Hugo Chavez took over, okay? 00:07:51.030 --> 00:07:53.950 And Hugo Chavez destroyed that, okay? 00:07:54.450 --> 00:08:00.930 Because what he, you know, the first thing that he did when he came in is that 00:08:00.930 --> 00:08:07.350 he decided that he wanted the company to, well, I want to do all these programs. 00:08:07.450 --> 00:08:09.190 You need to give me more money. You need to give me more money. 00:08:09.530 --> 00:08:13.610 And he was demanding so much money. Okay. You're, you're, you're making us take 00:08:13.610 --> 00:08:20.190 money away from the investment that we regularly do to maintain production. Okay. 00:08:20.670 --> 00:08:25.890 We can't, you can't, you can't extract that much money from the company without 00:08:25.890 --> 00:08:31.090 destroying its future ability to produce oil, okay? 00:08:31.790 --> 00:08:34.990 You know, these facilities need continuous reinvestment. 00:08:35.890 --> 00:08:39.770 And he kept doing that, and then he said, all you people aren't loyal, 00:08:39.970 --> 00:08:43.150 and then he fired all the oil employees, okay? 00:08:44.120 --> 00:08:47.760 And so for a while, as it happens with these organizations, oh, 00:08:47.880 --> 00:08:49.860 you see, I fired all the people, so everything's fine. 00:08:50.060 --> 00:08:53.760 Well, everything started breaking down over years as the lack of maintenance, 00:08:53.940 --> 00:08:58.300 the lack of knowledge, the lack of investment took its toll on oil production, 00:08:58.320 --> 00:09:02.400 where oil production now in Venezuela, even though reserves are still there, 00:09:02.840 --> 00:09:04.740 is down over 80, 90 percent. 00:09:05.900 --> 00:09:13.280 80, 90 percent. They have lost 80 to 90 percent of their oil producing capacity. 00:09:13.280 --> 00:09:18.980 This is because of all the disinvestment and all the refineries and everything. 00:09:19.380 --> 00:09:24.700 There was an article in the New York Times the last couple of years that showed 00:09:24.700 --> 00:09:31.900 the environmental devastation in Venezuela from the lack of attention that has 00:09:31.900 --> 00:09:37.600 been paid to all these facilities that have just completely broken down, exploded, 00:09:38.220 --> 00:09:38.960 started leaking. 00:09:38.960 --> 00:09:43.440 just are non-functional and have just created environmental devastation wherever 00:09:43.440 --> 00:09:46.740 they are located, okay? Because they've just been left to rot. 00:09:47.340 --> 00:09:49.860 So anyway, I want to make sure... 00:09:49.860 --> 00:09:55.980 So an oil company, okay, the point is you go, oh, Exxon, go down there and invest 00:09:55.980 --> 00:09:59.280 and you're looking at this rusting hulk of shit, okay? 00:09:59.500 --> 00:10:04.220 And wait, before I pull anything, I got to invest how much money? 00:10:04.380 --> 00:10:07.820 And by the way, this isn't light sweet crude oil, which is the easy one, 00:10:07.820 --> 00:10:12.580 It's bunker oil, so I have to have the refineries, and you guys destroyed the fucking refineries. 00:10:12.820 --> 00:10:16.740 Venezuela used to make all their own gasoline. You could buy gasoline in Venezuela 00:10:16.740 --> 00:10:20.840 20 years ago at four cents a gallon, okay? Right now, they have to import gasoline. 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:25.960 So, anyway, we've got multiple things here. 00:10:26.160 --> 00:10:32.060 We've got, okay, we got the guy, we pulled him out, which apparently, like, look, 00:10:32.980 --> 00:10:36.720 Everything else equal, the fact that we were able to go in, swoop in, 00:10:36.800 --> 00:10:42.120 grab the president and out with apparently minimal casualties, 00:10:42.320 --> 00:10:45.380 even on the Venezuelan side, they're reporting 40 dead, 00:10:45.700 --> 00:10:51.500 which is not nothing, but it is a lot less than it could be. 00:10:51.500 --> 00:10:58.360 Um and and by the way why do you i'm telling you the reason it happened is because 00:10:58.360 --> 00:11:03.100 the support for maduro is so low that none of those people that were there yes 00:11:03.100 --> 00:11:06.680 he had this entire security apparatus or whatever but when push came to shove 00:11:06.680 --> 00:11:08.700 they're like yeah fuck him take him. 00:11:08.700 --> 00:11:13.400 Well well there's at least some reports going around and i think there's a lot 00:11:13.400 --> 00:11:17.200 of reporting that hasn't been 00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:21.300 fully verified yet, you know, but there's some reporting that the U.S. 00:11:21.460 --> 00:11:27.040 was in back-channel conversations through Dubai with the VP about, 00:11:27.200 --> 00:11:28.880 hey, I'm actually better than Maduro. 00:11:29.120 --> 00:11:33.360 Let's get rid of him and you can deal with me instead, you know, this kind of stuff. 00:11:33.800 --> 00:11:36.000 Yeah. So there's, but again, okay. 00:11:36.300 --> 00:11:45.080 But again, my point is that there was nobody, everybody, nobody there had the level of loyalty, 00:11:45.560 --> 00:11:53.340 to go and just, you know, start a shooting over defending Maduro. Okay. 00:11:53.900 --> 00:11:57.840 So your VP, who, by the way, they said is the main person, like, 00:11:58.480 --> 00:12:01.260 supporter of him, basically is like, oh, yeah, sure, I'll do it. 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:02.700 Yeah, yeah, yeah, get rid of him. 00:12:03.340 --> 00:12:09.000 Anyway, anyway, we've got several different distinct issues, I think, here. One is... 00:12:10.080 --> 00:12:17.480 Is it good to get rid of Maduro? Two, is how Donald Trump did this appropriate? 00:12:17.880 --> 00:12:23.300 And then number three, which you brought up earlier, is there a plan going forward? 00:12:23.540 --> 00:12:25.440 Because it already seems like no. 00:12:26.040 --> 00:12:29.580 There's no plan. And that was the whole fucking problem. 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:32.860 I always said from the beginning, because if you were going to do this, 00:12:32.980 --> 00:12:35.600 the right approach, which is like the approach that happened in Panama, 00:12:36.300 --> 00:12:40.660 was that very quickly we had an interim government and we set up a free election. 00:12:41.280 --> 00:12:43.040 And that's it. OK. 00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:49.140 But here's the thing. Even facts on the ground versus what Donald Trump is saying 00:12:49.140 --> 00:12:53.320 versus the justification they gave are all different at this point. 00:12:53.740 --> 00:12:53.840 Right. 00:12:53.880 --> 00:12:58.360 The official justification is we're going in. This is a criminal arrest. 00:12:58.820 --> 00:13:03.720 The whole military aspect was just to support the arrest. The FBI is going in. 00:13:03.920 --> 00:13:05.360 They're arresting him for drug charges. 00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:11.640 Listen, there had been ample evidence for a long time before for this that Maduro 00:13:11.640 --> 00:13:19.500 had used the military in Venezuela to traffic drugs in order to enrich himself. 00:13:19.660 --> 00:13:25.060 Fine. But that justification lends towards we're in and out. 00:13:25.140 --> 00:13:28.660 We grabbed him and then we're done. We have nothing to do with anything else whatsoever. 00:13:29.300 --> 00:13:32.980 Meanwhile, Donald Trump is talking about regime change. 00:13:33.420 --> 00:13:37.340 And we're going to run the country. Rubio is going to be in charge or whatever. 00:13:38.020 --> 00:13:39.620 And I mean, wait. 00:13:39.820 --> 00:13:43.780 He said that he said, wait, wait, wait, he did say that. No, he didn't say that. 00:13:44.120 --> 00:13:47.600 You you said that. I thought I thought you were channeling. 00:13:47.860 --> 00:13:53.460 No, no, no, no, no. I that was just on my bingo card that I made up this bingo card. 00:13:53.700 --> 00:13:56.560 And I thought Rubio won't be in charge of Venezuela. 00:13:56.820 --> 00:14:02.440 I thought you had actually heard him say that. No, what I can verify that he 00:14:02.440 --> 00:14:08.300 said was that there will be sort of a committee of the important people. 00:14:08.500 --> 00:14:15.160 When he was asked who will be in charge, he gestured around to the people in the room. 00:14:15.640 --> 00:14:22.400 So that was Rubio, Hegseth, a few other people from the cabinet and military. 00:14:23.480 --> 00:14:27.800 So basically he was like, it's us, us here in this room. We're the ones who 00:14:27.800 --> 00:14:30.860 are going to be in charge. But meanwhile, on the ground... 00:14:31.650 --> 00:14:34.990 We're doing nothing. I mean, that's what I'm saying. I don't understand. 00:14:34.990 --> 00:14:39.690 In order to impose something like that, you can't just go in, 00:14:39.750 --> 00:14:45.750 grab the president, and leave because the VP is ostensibly in charge now. 00:14:46.450 --> 00:14:50.750 There's the person who actually, quote unquote, won the previous rigged election 00:14:50.750 --> 00:14:58.010 who was an opposition figure who reportedly got a significant landslide, actually. 00:14:58.110 --> 00:14:58.410 Yes. 00:14:59.070 --> 00:15:03.610 And then we've got that lady who won the Nobel Peace Prize, who's also in the contention. 00:15:03.990 --> 00:15:08.430 That was Weidol, who all reports say that he did—I mean, there was a lot of 00:15:08.430 --> 00:15:12.070 data that showed that he won the election in a landslide, yes. 00:15:12.390 --> 00:15:17.670 But anyway, the facts on the ground are not us occupying Venezuela. 00:15:18.370 --> 00:15:21.910 So all of this talk about all of these things we intend to do there, 00:15:21.950 --> 00:15:25.410 where the hell is that coming from, unless there's a lot more coming up? 00:15:26.250 --> 00:15:28.250 I know where they're coming from, Sam. 00:15:28.410 --> 00:15:30.250 And what Hegseth said— Wait, wait. 00:15:30.410 --> 00:15:31.810 No, I know where they're coming from. 00:15:32.190 --> 00:15:32.670 Yes. 00:15:32.810 --> 00:15:33.630 Out of his ass. 00:15:34.150 --> 00:15:37.090 Yes, yes. Well, and— I mean. 00:15:37.210 --> 00:15:37.870 Am I wrong? 00:15:38.210 --> 00:15:42.970 No, you're not wrong, but I think there's at least some question of whether, 00:15:42.970 --> 00:15:47.530 you know, whether he's just making shit up or whether he's actually delusional. 00:15:48.170 --> 00:15:53.430 You know, and whether there's a delta between— I mean. 00:15:53.670 --> 00:15:59.370 I think that right now it's very difficult to discern the difference between those two. 00:15:59.430 --> 00:16:01.730 Yes, is he lying or is he delusional? We don't know. 00:16:02.010 --> 00:16:05.170 Who the hell knows? Who the hell knows? Right. 00:16:05.730 --> 00:16:12.450 Right. So, and how this plays out ends up being very different if we really 00:16:12.450 --> 00:16:14.230 are done or whether there's more coming. 00:16:14.530 --> 00:16:18.750 Listen, if we don't want a repeat of Iraq, I will say the one thing, okay? 00:16:19.310 --> 00:16:19.810 Yes. 00:16:19.810 --> 00:16:23.530 That leaving the current government in charge, 00:16:24.570 --> 00:16:31.630 Is one way of ensuring that we don't have the kind of collapse that led to a 00:16:31.630 --> 00:16:37.150 lot more bloodshed, like in Iraq, where we went and we created this vacuum that created just. 00:16:37.270 --> 00:16:41.470 If you actually work with this, this government and try to coerce them into, 00:16:41.610 --> 00:16:43.650 oh, OK, a year from now, you'll have real elections. 00:16:43.910 --> 00:16:48.170 You'll be right. You're going to have a independent monitor, 00:16:48.650 --> 00:16:51.570 you know, election that is free and fair. 00:16:51.750 --> 00:16:54.350 We're going to give you this timeline. You're going to do this and whatever. 00:16:54.570 --> 00:16:58.010 and, you know, you're going to do those actions, then OK. 00:16:58.690 --> 00:17:04.130 But that I mean that that but but but but the point is that they didn't seem 00:17:04.130 --> 00:17:05.470 to have that planned already. 00:17:05.770 --> 00:17:09.470 They went in and did this without without this already structured. 00:17:09.790 --> 00:17:15.750 According to what Trump said in his news conference, this VP had told Rubio 00:17:15.750 --> 00:17:17.250 that she'd be cooperative. 00:17:17.490 --> 00:17:20.110 Of course, then she immediately gave a speech saying, no, no, 00:17:20.230 --> 00:17:23.030 absolutely not. But of course, she has to. Right. 00:17:23.570 --> 00:17:25.330 Right. So who knows what's really 00:17:25.330 --> 00:17:28.550 going on? Right. Who knows what's really going on? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 00:17:28.790 --> 00:17:32.290 Okay. We should move on and do our actual show for today. 00:17:33.290 --> 00:17:37.950 So let me introduce and then we'll take a break and then we'll get into it. 00:17:38.430 --> 00:17:41.470 Basically, if you listened to last week's show, you heard us do our predictions 00:17:41.470 --> 00:17:46.210 for 2026. A year and a week ago, we did our predictions for 2025. 00:17:47.030 --> 00:17:51.690 There were five sections, politics, international, economy, technology, and hodgepodge. 00:17:52.030 --> 00:17:57.510 So we are going to, when we come back, we are going to review the predictions we made a year ago. 00:17:57.910 --> 00:18:05.630 I spent about, I don't know, five hours or so going over last week's show over 00:18:05.630 --> 00:18:08.070 the last, I started last night, finished this morning. 00:18:08.230 --> 00:18:11.110 Okay, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Oh my God. 00:18:11.250 --> 00:18:17.770 Oh my God. Oh my God. I gotta pull out my bingo card And cross it off Washington 00:18:17.770 --> 00:18:25.050 Post front cover Rubio takes on his most challenging role yet Viceroy Of Venezuela, 00:18:26.610 --> 00:18:28.930 Yes Shit. 00:18:30.100 --> 00:18:35.340 You know, he should just move there into the presidential palace. 00:18:35.600 --> 00:18:35.980 Yes. 00:18:36.120 --> 00:18:41.060 You know, so, yeah. He can do that and be secretary of state here at the same time, right? 00:18:41.060 --> 00:18:45.080 I thought that I was, like, really stretching it by saying, let me put, 00:18:45.360 --> 00:18:49.760 you know, somebody said, hey, make a 2026 bingo card, all sorts of crazy stuff. 00:18:49.760 --> 00:18:53.620 So I got Putin dying and, you know, Ukraine at peace. 00:18:53.900 --> 00:18:58.440 I don't know, whatever. And I said, you know what? Rubio's in charge of Venezuela. Fuck it. 00:18:59.060 --> 00:19:04.520 I just wrote that like three days ago and boom! I didn't even get to... 00:19:05.380 --> 00:19:12.660 Anyway Anyway we are going to have after this we're going to take a break and 00:19:12.660 --> 00:19:16.380 then we'll come back and we'll do one segment for each of these we will go over 00:19:16.380 --> 00:19:18.200 all of the predictions we made. 00:19:18.460 --> 00:19:22.380 I listened to the show carefully. I wrote down every prediction that either 00:19:22.380 --> 00:19:27.740 Yvonne or I made for most of them I tried to do a preliminary fact check so 00:19:27.740 --> 00:19:29.960 that I know whether we were right or wrong. 00:19:30.120 --> 00:19:35.060 For some of them, Yvonne and I will have to discuss to make a final determination. 00:19:35.540 --> 00:19:37.000 But that's basically the plan. 00:19:37.800 --> 00:19:41.620 And, you know, last week's show, yeah, the prediction show is usually the longest 00:19:41.620 --> 00:19:44.240 of the year. This is usually like the second longest of the year. 00:19:44.420 --> 00:19:49.460 So let's get to it. We're going to take the first break and then we'll come 00:19:49.460 --> 00:19:54.500 back and talk about our politics predictions for 2025 and see how we did. 00:19:54.760 --> 00:19:57.000 How do you think we did, Yvonne? I think we did good. 00:19:57.080 --> 00:19:59.680 I have no idea Okay. 00:19:59.960 --> 00:20:02.360 Here we go Break, break, break, 00:20:39.130 --> 00:20:43.230 I will mention that he has been posting on that channel again. 00:20:43.590 --> 00:20:48.710 There was a new video posted just yesterday. It's an almost one hour long video, 00:20:48.710 --> 00:20:55.350 most of which is the camera pointed at the wall of his room with nobody visible. 00:20:55.630 --> 00:20:58.550 But you can hear him and his grandmother talking. 00:20:58.950 --> 00:21:00.430 Well, that's riveting. 00:21:00.870 --> 00:21:03.750 As they work on a story. 00:21:03.750 --> 00:21:08.910 Are we going to nominate this for like some kind of like gold? 00:21:08.910 --> 00:21:10.730 Globe or academy a webby. 00:21:10.730 --> 00:21:18.570 A webby best short film uh you know unscripted short film i don't know something. 00:21:18.570 --> 00:21:22.950 I don't know it's that episode's long enough i'm not sure it qualifies as a 00:21:22.950 --> 00:21:27.270 short i mean it's not a full it's not feature length i think you have to be 00:21:27.270 --> 00:21:30.450 over an hour for that and it's like 54 minutes or something okay so. 00:21:30.450 --> 00:21:32.990 It quite you know it's a short film. 00:21:32.990 --> 00:21:37.570 I guess so yeah Although when I think about short films, I'm usually thinking 00:21:37.570 --> 00:21:38.930 like 20 minutes or something. 00:21:39.150 --> 00:21:40.090 15, 20 minutes. 00:21:40.930 --> 00:21:41.030 Yeah. 00:21:41.230 --> 00:21:41.850 It's under an hour. 00:21:42.470 --> 00:21:47.010 Okay. Let's get started. And I'm trying to figure out like the right place to 00:21:47.010 --> 00:21:50.010 put all my windows so I can see everything I need to see. 00:21:50.370 --> 00:21:55.090 Can I just mention again on the affordability? Well, two quick things before we go. 00:21:55.210 --> 00:21:55.610 Yes, yes. 00:21:55.710 --> 00:21:59.390 Number one is on the affordability crisis right now. My last coffee order, 00:21:59.510 --> 00:22:05.310 my coffee that used to be $12 a pound came in at $23 per pack. Okay. All right. 00:22:05.690 --> 00:22:05.870 Okay. 00:22:05.950 --> 00:22:10.670 So much for that thing. So that's one thing. 00:22:11.050 --> 00:22:15.050 The second thing is that I don't remember anymore. So let's move on. 00:22:15.970 --> 00:22:19.830 That was very profound, Yvonne. Thank you for interjecting that. 00:22:19.830 --> 00:22:24.450 I know that I usually have, you know, very profound things. Oh, 00:22:24.450 --> 00:22:27.110 no, no. The polymarkets thing. 00:22:27.550 --> 00:22:28.570 Oh, yes, yes. 00:22:28.750 --> 00:22:33.050 You didn't see somebody went and like made a killing in polymarkets on the Venezuela invasion? 00:22:33.250 --> 00:22:37.250 You posted that on our curmudgeon's corner slack like 12 hours after I did. But yes, go ahead. 00:22:37.750 --> 00:22:41.170 Well, no, that somebody did. Well, I didn't see that you put it. 00:22:41.610 --> 00:22:43.030 That somebody went and did it. 00:22:44.490 --> 00:22:49.550 They put in a whole bunch of money on Venezuela-related issues a few hours before it happened. 00:22:50.950 --> 00:22:55.910 Now, here's the one thing. On that bet, man, it could have been almost anybody. 00:22:56.270 --> 00:22:59.210 You could have been a military guy for all, you know. 00:22:59.470 --> 00:23:03.350 I mean, hey, you know, you're one of the soldiers. You're going to send to Venezuela. 00:23:03.350 --> 00:23:04.530 You're like, well, fuck this. 00:23:04.710 --> 00:23:08.090 Polymarket, boom. I'm putting in money and we're invading Venezuela. Boom. 00:23:08.670 --> 00:23:09.070 Yeah. 00:23:10.550 --> 00:23:14.890 It could have been anybody. You're right. The number of people who knew, 00:23:15.070 --> 00:23:20.450 quote unquote, knew something more definitive than the general public was in the thousands. 00:23:20.790 --> 00:23:23.050 It was in the thousands. Yeah. So, yeah. 00:23:23.370 --> 00:23:27.650 So, we can't just automatically point this to Hegseth or something. 00:23:28.050 --> 00:23:32.430 Right. Which I have falling off a carrier drunk during 2026, 00:23:32.650 --> 00:23:33.810 and I would like to see if that happens. 00:23:33.810 --> 00:23:34.650 On your bingo card? 00:23:34.790 --> 00:23:35.090 Yeah. 00:23:35.290 --> 00:23:35.550 Okay. 00:23:35.870 --> 00:23:36.850 That would be cool. 00:23:37.530 --> 00:23:42.050 It would be interesting. can we get started yes. 00:23:42.050 --> 00:23:42.690 Let's get started. 00:23:42.690 --> 00:23:51.510 Okay our first prediction last year was about elon musk and how he would end 00:23:51.510 --> 00:23:58.510 his time as advisor to the president we both agreed well, 00:24:01.250 --> 00:24:07.290 actually this is slightly different your prediction was just that he would not 00:24:07.290 --> 00:24:10.350 last the year as an advisor you were correct. 00:24:10.350 --> 00:24:11.310 That was correct. 00:24:11.310 --> 00:24:14.330 Okay i was more 00:24:14.330 --> 00:24:17.710 specific i had several bits on this one 00:24:17.710 --> 00:24:21.690 was that musk would not be fired by tweet and 00:24:21.690 --> 00:24:24.710 i was right i mean there was a there was 00:24:24.710 --> 00:24:27.750 a tweet battle but they had a little going away for 00:24:27.750 --> 00:24:30.630 him party for him in the oval office they had some 00:24:30.630 --> 00:24:34.110 other stuff going on they they had pre-announced the 00:24:34.110 --> 00:24:36.870 date before it actually happened for for his 00:24:36.870 --> 00:24:39.850 official end date right um so i'm counting myself 00:24:39.850 --> 00:24:43.570 as right and i will say that rather 00:24:43.570 --> 00:24:48.310 than a formal firing i also said it would just sort of become more and more 00:24:48.310 --> 00:24:54.350 clear that trump had stopped paying attention to musk and i think even before 00:24:54.350 --> 00:24:58.470 he officially left that was already starting to happen but what do you think 00:24:58.470 --> 00:25:00.330 should i should i count that for me or no. 00:25:01.380 --> 00:25:01.820 Yeah. 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:03.780 Okay. I counted as yes. 00:25:03.820 --> 00:25:04.200 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:25:04.420 --> 00:25:11.540 Yeah. And then I said Musk will be gone by the end of June as a meaningful advisor. 00:25:12.720 --> 00:25:16.060 His farewell in the Oval Office that I mentioned was May 30th. 00:25:16.280 --> 00:25:19.700 His tweet about Trump being in the Epstein files was June 5th. 00:25:19.760 --> 00:25:24.080 So I think I did good on timing. I said before the end of June and May. 00:25:24.380 --> 00:25:24.580 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:25:24.980 --> 00:25:31.200 Yes on that. Then, next up, we both agreed that there would be no legislation 00:25:31.200 --> 00:25:34.120 passed to privatize the U.S. 00:25:34.240 --> 00:25:36.080 Postal Service. And we were correct. 00:25:36.580 --> 00:25:37.920 Okay, good. 00:25:38.500 --> 00:25:47.060 Okay, next up, you said that the Trump inauguration crowd size would be bigger than 2016. 00:25:47.920 --> 00:25:49.200 Were you right, Yvonne? 00:25:49.480 --> 00:25:51.100 I don't know. Was I? 00:25:51.860 --> 00:25:57.460 No, because they moved it inside and it was an invited crowd only because of weather. 00:25:58.260 --> 00:26:00.740 Oh, because of the weather. That's right. 00:26:00.920 --> 00:26:01.080 Right. 00:26:01.220 --> 00:26:01.560 Oh, wow. 00:26:01.720 --> 00:26:06.800 So you were wrong. Meanwhile, I did predict that it would be smaller than 2016 and I was right. 00:26:06.980 --> 00:26:10.580 Although I did not like give the, it was be because of weather and all that. 00:26:10.780 --> 00:26:11.020 Right. 00:26:11.100 --> 00:26:11.700 It was smaller. 00:26:11.860 --> 00:26:13.320 Well, I was wrong. 00:26:14.360 --> 00:26:16.400 I further said that clump. 00:26:16.660 --> 00:26:25.280 Clump, clump, I further claim Donald clump. Yes. 00:26:25.760 --> 00:26:30.940 I said that Donald Trump will claim it was bigger though. And in fact, 00:26:31.060 --> 00:26:33.340 not only that, but claim that it was the biggest ever. 00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:34.920 He did. 00:26:35.300 --> 00:26:39.460 No, he didn't. He did neither of those things because it was inside and stuff. 00:26:39.580 --> 00:26:40.740 So I got both of those wrong. 00:26:41.100 --> 00:26:42.480 Oh God. Oh, well. 00:26:42.960 --> 00:26:49.140 Okay. Next, we both said there would be no recess appointments for the cabinet, 00:26:49.140 --> 00:26:51.820 that Donald Trump would not need to do that. 00:26:52.180 --> 00:26:57.340 There were, in fact, no recess appointments. They were all regular appointments for the cabinet. 00:26:57.980 --> 00:26:59.780 So we were both right on that. 00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:06.220 We both agreed that there would be a full cabinet in place by October 1st. 00:27:06.320 --> 00:27:09.620 That was a date that Bruce gave us. We both said that was plenty of time. 00:27:09.880 --> 00:27:16.620 We were both correct. In fact, the last cabinet position to be filled was March 10th. 00:27:17.100 --> 00:27:20.140 You have a guess as to which cabinet position was last? 00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:22.240 Health secretary? 00:27:22.820 --> 00:27:24.060 No, labor. 00:27:24.560 --> 00:27:25.000 Labor. 00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:26.560 Health was somewhere in the middle. 00:27:27.260 --> 00:27:27.440 Okay. 00:27:28.080 --> 00:27:35.220 Okay. And then we both confidently agreed that there was absolutely no question 00:27:35.220 --> 00:27:39.700 whatsoever that there would be some cabinet turnover by the end of the year. 00:27:40.360 --> 00:27:49.780 In fact, all 21 members of Donald Trump's cabinet were confirmed and have been 00:27:49.780 --> 00:27:51.560 there ever since and are still there. 00:27:51.640 --> 00:27:54.200 I'd say that's one of the more shocking developments. 00:27:55.430 --> 00:28:01.670 this year, the fact that there's been no turnover in the cabinet because that 00:28:01.670 --> 00:28:03.270 was a regular of the first term. 00:28:03.490 --> 00:28:08.190 Well, cause I think the difference is this year he 100% went for loyalty. 00:28:08.510 --> 00:28:12.850 Whereas last time around, he got a whole bunch of people that other folks were 00:28:12.850 --> 00:28:17.870 telling him were experts or were good or had, you know, knew about the space 00:28:17.870 --> 00:28:21.410 or whatever. And he didn't like any of those people because they kept telling him no. 00:28:23.030 --> 00:28:28.230 So he hired a cabinet of yes, men. And because the cabinet is a cabinet of yes, men and women, 00:28:30.930 --> 00:28:33.170 they, you know, they're all still there. Okay. 00:28:33.410 --> 00:28:39.890 Yeah. So we were both wrong on that one. We both agreed that there would be 00:28:39.890 --> 00:28:43.690 no January 6th type drama before the inauguration. We were correct. 00:28:44.370 --> 00:28:47.810 So a bunch of Democrats that didn't go and like invade the Capitol. 00:28:48.330 --> 00:28:51.630 No, nothing like that. And I also went further and said there won't even be 00:28:51.630 --> 00:28:57.530 the kind of drama we had in 2016, where there were some objections at the January 00:28:57.530 --> 00:28:59.730 6th ceremonies that were instantly overridden. 00:28:59.750 --> 00:29:03.850 We didn't even have that, I don't think. So I'm counting myself right on that. 00:29:04.570 --> 00:29:11.290 We also both agreed, because there was a little bit of chatter that maybe Biden 00:29:11.290 --> 00:29:16.810 would be creative with this, but no mini-Harris presidency between Biden and Trump. 00:29:17.210 --> 00:29:17.730 Okay. 00:29:19.690 --> 00:29:23.590 A few folks were toying around with the idea, it was really half a joke, 00:29:23.790 --> 00:29:30.850 that Biden could resign like a one week early, let Harris be president for a week so that, you know, 00:29:31.510 --> 00:29:36.490 Trump wouldn't be 47, we'd have a woman president for at least a little bit, 00:29:36.710 --> 00:29:37.650 you know, et cetera, et cetera. 00:29:37.850 --> 00:29:40.050 No, that did not happen. So we were both correct. 00:29:40.650 --> 00:29:45.490 I further predicted that Biden would indeed attend the inauguration and hand it over. I was right. 00:29:46.570 --> 00:29:50.890 we both agreed that trump would still be president at the end of the year we were correct, 00:29:51.780 --> 00:29:58.180 You further predicted to go along with that, that Trump will not die. You got that right. 00:29:58.500 --> 00:30:00.260 I went, wow, I went. 00:30:00.300 --> 00:30:07.220 I will say you hedged your bets and later in the show, you predicted that he will die. So, you know. 00:30:07.360 --> 00:30:09.980 Oh, so I played both sides. Okay. 00:30:10.060 --> 00:30:13.920 You played both sides. But for this segment, you predicted he would not. 00:30:16.840 --> 00:30:18.940 Okay, great. Good job, Ivan. 00:30:18.940 --> 00:30:25.640 We both said that there would be at least one additional assassination attempt on Trump. 00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:29.900 Not that has been publicized. Not in this year. 00:30:30.300 --> 00:30:35.060 I did look up, there were, I believe, three security incidents. 00:30:36.420 --> 00:30:44.440 including one where they found like what looked like a hideout that had a view 00:30:44.440 --> 00:30:50.600 of somewhere that Trump was scheduled to be, but they didn't find a person. They didn't find a gun. 00:30:50.780 --> 00:30:53.180 They didn't actually like, you know, whatever. 00:30:53.460 --> 00:30:57.000 So, but there were, there were security incidents, but there were no flat out 00:30:57.000 --> 00:30:58.040 assassination attempts. 00:30:58.720 --> 00:30:58.880 Okay. 00:31:00.240 --> 00:31:03.980 Okay. So we were both wrong on that one. 00:31:04.980 --> 00:31:11.100 next up we both agreed that the sentencing in the new york case would be delayed 00:31:11.100 --> 00:31:18.560 past 2025 because they would delay it until after his term yeah we were wait no. 00:31:18.560 --> 00:31:21.140 No we were wrong yeah sentencing was was passed. 00:31:21.140 --> 00:31:27.180 They sentencing was handed down on january 10th it was basically nothing but 00:31:27.180 --> 00:31:32.300 it was handed down i had said the new york case would not be dismissed because 00:31:32.300 --> 00:31:34.280 there was some talk of it just being dismissed. 00:31:34.560 --> 00:31:36.580 I was right. It was not dismissed. 00:31:37.820 --> 00:31:41.080 Next up, you know, I will stop here for a second. 00:31:41.560 --> 00:31:45.180 We have gone through a whole bunch of these so far, and basically there's been 00:31:45.180 --> 00:31:47.280 no discussion yet, which is unusual for us. 00:31:47.820 --> 00:31:52.720 Oftentimes when we go through these, at least some of these prompt some discussion 00:31:52.720 --> 00:31:56.140 on who's right, who's wrong, what happened, what didn't, you know, 00:31:56.240 --> 00:31:58.680 but no, so far these have been pretty straightforward. 00:31:59.300 --> 00:32:04.180 Next up, we both agreed that the Trump administration would openly investigate 00:32:04.180 --> 00:32:05.520 their opponents or the press. 00:32:05.700 --> 00:32:08.040 We were both correct. They absolutely did. 00:32:10.220 --> 00:32:16.160 Then we split on whether or not there would actually be indictments of those 00:32:16.160 --> 00:32:17.360 folks that were investigated. 00:32:17.800 --> 00:32:24.620 You said yes. I said no. You were right. There were actual indictments resulting 00:32:24.620 --> 00:32:32.660 from these investigations this year. We had, you know, the Letitia James one, we had the Comey one. 00:32:32.820 --> 00:32:35.420 Now, those indictments haven't gone very far. 00:32:35.700 --> 00:32:37.040 But they were indictments. 00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:38.700 But they were, in fact, indicted. 00:32:40.140 --> 00:32:46.280 Okay, next up. We both predicted that there would be no direct U.S. 00:32:46.760 --> 00:32:50.980 military involvement in places the U.S. was not already involved in 2024. 00:32:52.040 --> 00:32:53.100 We were wrong. 00:32:53.500 --> 00:32:56.240 Where did we go that wasn't on the bingo? 00:32:56.900 --> 00:33:01.100 Well, if nothing else, Venezuela. Yeah, but wait, wait. 00:33:01.160 --> 00:33:01.320 Wait. 00:33:01.420 --> 00:33:06.800 No, no, the actual thing at the end that we said was in January, 00:33:06.800 --> 00:33:10.000 but we attacked some docks the last week of December. 00:33:10.140 --> 00:33:11.880 That's true. Okay. Yeah. 00:33:12.220 --> 00:33:20.060 And someone posted the other day a list of countries Trump has bombed. 00:33:20.320 --> 00:33:28.900 And it apparently, the 2025 number for the number of separate countries the U.S. 00:33:28.960 --> 00:33:35.680 has bombed was greater in 2025 than in any other year in the history of the country. 00:33:36.320 --> 00:33:38.120 Wow. Damn. 00:33:38.120 --> 00:33:42.100 Because we had Nigeria. That was new, too, by the way. We bombed Nigeria. 00:33:42.220 --> 00:33:45.420 Nigeria was, yeah, I know. I was like, we're trying to remember which place. 00:33:45.540 --> 00:33:50.600 But yeah, Nigeria. We bombed Nigeria, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Venezuela. 00:33:51.960 --> 00:33:54.460 I'm missing a couple. There were like seven or eight total. 00:33:55.000 --> 00:33:55.980 Yeah, we're doing great. 00:33:56.920 --> 00:33:59.400 Somalia. Did I say Somalia? I think we've done that as well. 00:33:59.400 --> 00:34:01.820 No, no, we didn't say Somalia, but yeah, fuck it. 00:34:02.700 --> 00:34:07.940 So, like, if I had the list handy, I'd read it. But, like, those are just off the top of my head. 00:34:09.210 --> 00:34:14.010 Anyway, so we were both wrong on that one. We both agreed that there would be 00:34:14.010 --> 00:34:16.710 no invasion of Panama. We were correct. 00:34:17.630 --> 00:34:21.390 We both agreed there would be no invasion of Greenland. We were correct. 00:34:21.470 --> 00:34:22.290 We were both correct. 00:34:23.270 --> 00:34:29.430 We both agreed that the Trump tax cuts would be extended. We were both correct. 00:34:30.490 --> 00:34:35.170 I, however, was stupid and became more specific and said that would happen in 00:34:35.170 --> 00:34:37.210 the first hundred days. It did not. 00:34:37.410 --> 00:34:38.050 It did not. 00:34:38.050 --> 00:34:41.350 The extension of the tax cuts apparently was part of the big, 00:34:41.450 --> 00:34:43.350 beautiful bill, which I believe was July. 00:34:45.170 --> 00:34:48.390 Then that was it for presidency, and we started talking about, 00:34:48.590 --> 00:34:51.270 well, I guess the last couple might have been Congress. 00:34:51.810 --> 00:34:57.630 We're now on Congress. We split on how many speakers of the House there would be in 2025. 00:34:58.930 --> 00:35:03.190 You said two, and I said three. How many were there, Yvonne? 00:35:03.790 --> 00:35:04.130 One. 00:35:04.630 --> 00:35:09.590 One. We were both wrong. we split on whether it's stunning. 00:35:09.590 --> 00:35:11.730 How Mike Johnson is still holding on. 00:35:11.730 --> 00:35:16.950 Yeah we split on whether or not he would even win the January speaker vote you 00:35:16.950 --> 00:35:21.550 said he would I said he would not you were obviously right I was wrong, 00:35:22.590 --> 00:35:28.930 we split on how many ballots it would take to pick a speaker in January I said 00:35:28.930 --> 00:35:36.070 I said 5 to 10 you said 2 to 10 how many ballots was it Yvonne? one it was one, 00:35:38.110 --> 00:35:43.950 So, yeah, we were both wrong on that one. We both, however, agreed that Republicans 00:35:43.950 --> 00:35:46.890 would keep the House all year long. And in fact, they did. 00:35:47.210 --> 00:35:48.290 They did? Okay. 00:35:49.050 --> 00:35:49.870 They did. 00:35:51.330 --> 00:35:54.090 Yeah. They have been razor thin. 00:35:54.230 --> 00:35:59.450 But they have. Then we both agreed that there would be at least one issue where 00:35:59.450 --> 00:36:06.110 Republicans in Congress would break from Trump in significant numbers. 00:36:06.810 --> 00:36:08.170 Were we correct, Yvonne? 00:36:08.270 --> 00:36:08.810 Oh, yes. 00:36:09.330 --> 00:36:11.110 And what issue would that be, Yvonne? 00:36:11.290 --> 00:36:13.010 The Epstein file, Sam. 00:36:13.670 --> 00:36:19.730 Indeed, we were both right. And I furthermore predicted that once it was clear 00:36:19.730 --> 00:36:22.470 he was losing, Trump would back down. 00:36:22.850 --> 00:36:24.530 And he did, in fact, do that. 00:36:24.730 --> 00:36:25.170 Yes, he did. 00:36:25.730 --> 00:36:29.050 At the very end, he was like, okay, fine, pass the damn thing. 00:36:30.110 --> 00:36:36.490 So I was right on that. We both, however, made the prediction that Trump will 00:36:36.490 --> 00:36:40.010 never admit defeat about anything. Were we right, Yvonne? 00:36:40.250 --> 00:36:41.730 Oh, come on. Of course. 00:36:43.810 --> 00:36:44.750 Of course. 00:36:45.410 --> 00:36:49.550 I mean, that's a feature. I mean, come on. 00:36:51.290 --> 00:36:58.450 Okay, next up. We both agreed with the statement, Dodge will be a complete failure. 00:36:58.870 --> 00:37:00.390 Were we correct, Yvonne? 00:37:00.390 --> 00:37:03.930 Fuck fucking at 100, 200% correct. 00:37:04.910 --> 00:37:12.910 Okay. Now, you furthermore said that the mode that this would work in is they 00:37:12.910 --> 00:37:14.810 would come up with a bunch of things to cut, 00:37:14.850 --> 00:37:20.070 but those cuts would not actually happen because Congress wouldn't go along with them. 00:37:20.130 --> 00:37:22.690 Is that how it played out, Yvonne? Not exactly. 00:37:22.950 --> 00:37:23.750 No, not exactly. 00:37:23.870 --> 00:37:28.410 No. I'm counting you as wrong in that because what Dodge did was they actually 00:37:28.410 --> 00:37:32.150 did go in and shut crap down, even though they had no legal authority. 00:37:32.150 --> 00:37:34.350 Even though they have no legal authority, yes, that's correct. 00:37:34.910 --> 00:37:39.790 Right, which goes along with me saying Dodge will find ways to claim victory 00:37:39.790 --> 00:37:42.730 without actually having done much. What would you say out of that one? 00:37:42.910 --> 00:37:45.670 Oh, fuck. Yes. Yeah. 00:37:45.970 --> 00:37:51.850 I further said at best things would be held to current levels not actually decrease. 00:37:52.410 --> 00:37:56.850 I was right on that as well. We've seen charts multiple times throughout the 00:37:56.850 --> 00:37:58.630 year of total federal spending. 00:37:59.890 --> 00:38:01.710 Is a deficit down? 00:38:02.210 --> 00:38:05.130 Wait, wait, wait. That's a separate question. We'll get to that in a second. 00:38:05.130 --> 00:38:07.610 No, no, no. I'm like, well, I know it's a separate question, 00:38:07.710 --> 00:38:10.270 but in this case, did they cut spending, Sam? 00:38:11.260 --> 00:38:15.260 That's an entirely different question than the deficit question. 00:38:15.460 --> 00:38:17.840 So let me answer the spending question. 00:38:17.960 --> 00:38:22.820 Did the total spend of the U.S. federal government with Dodge go down? 00:38:22.900 --> 00:38:26.120 No, it did not go down. In fact, it was the highest ever again. 00:38:26.340 --> 00:38:30.820 And if you look at the chart throughout the year, it was higher every single 00:38:30.820 --> 00:38:32.900 day of the year than previous years. 00:38:33.660 --> 00:38:41.580 What a shocking development, Sam. Sam, what a shocking, stunning, Sam, I'm stunned. 00:38:42.240 --> 00:38:48.020 Yes. Okay, next up, though, you specifically predicted that they would not cut 00:38:48.020 --> 00:38:52.600 VA health, because that's one of the things that had been mentioned. I think they did. 00:38:53.340 --> 00:38:55.620 They fired a whole bunch of people from VA. 00:38:55.800 --> 00:38:56.600 Yes, they did. They did a bunch of stuff. 00:38:56.860 --> 00:39:04.380 So we'll count you as wrong on that one. I said they will find over a billion dollars to cut. 00:39:04.380 --> 00:39:10.980 like because we went back like there was a we said billion not trillion we were 00:39:10.980 --> 00:39:14.960 saying that there was a small amount they would never reach the the trillions 00:39:14.960 --> 00:39:18.820 or whatever that they targeted but we said they would find over a billion but 00:39:18.820 --> 00:39:22.600 it would be compensated by increases elsewhere i was right on that right yeah. 00:39:22.600 --> 00:39:23.960 That's 100 correct yes. 00:39:23.960 --> 00:39:28.920 Yes i also said they will find scapegoat programs republicans don't like and 00:39:28.920 --> 00:39:34.700 get rid of them totally correct i was right i said but Simultaneously, 00:39:34.700 --> 00:39:37.640 they'll increase funding for things like defense and SpaceX. 00:39:38.260 --> 00:39:39.580 That's totally correct. 00:39:40.020 --> 00:39:46.360 Yes. Okay. We both agreed that there would be more tax cuts. 00:39:47.820 --> 00:39:49.380 So 100% true on that one. 00:39:49.740 --> 00:39:54.400 We both agreed that there would be no net spending cuts. 00:39:54.760 --> 00:39:56.880 It's 100% true on that one, too. 00:39:57.820 --> 00:40:04.320 Okay, we split on SCOTUS openings. You said there would be no SCOTUS openings. I said there would be. 00:40:04.600 --> 00:40:07.500 There were none this year. So you were right. I was wrong. 00:40:07.880 --> 00:40:08.580 Once again. 00:40:09.260 --> 00:40:15.820 Okay, now the budget deficit. We both predicted the budget deficit would be up. 00:40:16.280 --> 00:40:19.720 Let me ask a question. What did Trump say he was going to do with the deficit 00:40:19.720 --> 00:40:20.920 when he came into office? 00:40:21.520 --> 00:40:25.000 Well, he was going to kill it completely and we'd have surpluses, right? 00:40:25.920 --> 00:40:28.240 Isn't that what he always says? I mean, is that what he said? Hang on. 00:40:28.440 --> 00:40:29.240 I don't remember. 00:40:29.480 --> 00:40:30.960 I'm going to check to see. 00:40:32.640 --> 00:40:34.700 He promised that the first term, I think. 00:40:36.040 --> 00:40:37.620 I'm going to check what he promised for this time. 00:40:40.680 --> 00:40:45.760 All right. Let's see. Checking, checking, checking. Let's see. 00:40:46.780 --> 00:40:49.300 Let me see what answer I come on. 00:40:51.040 --> 00:40:55.020 All he said was that he would slash the federal budget deficit, 00:40:55.280 --> 00:40:58.400 that he would reduce spending and boost revenue. 00:40:58.600 --> 00:41:03.080 So, yeah. So, he was vague. He didn't do that. But that was, 00:41:03.920 --> 00:41:09.460 like you mentioned, that, like, the deficit to zero thing was a first campaign promise. 00:41:09.480 --> 00:41:09.680 First term. 00:41:09.840 --> 00:41:10.860 Yeah, first term. 00:41:10.920 --> 00:41:17.260 Okay, so here's what actually happened. Fiscal year 2024, deficit was $1.82 trillion. 00:41:17.920 --> 00:41:22.280 Fiscal year 2025, deficit was $1.78. 00:41:22.360 --> 00:41:26.040 The deficit was actually down. We were both wrong. 00:41:26.440 --> 00:41:28.420 The deficit was actually down. Huh. 00:41:28.700 --> 00:41:30.900 Slightly. Just slightly. But it was down. 00:41:31.240 --> 00:41:38.760 Okay. Actually, you could, you know what? That was actually the tariffs. 00:41:39.340 --> 00:41:41.000 Yeah, it probably was. 00:41:41.280 --> 00:41:44.680 Yeah, because it was $200 billion in tariff revenue. 00:41:45.140 --> 00:41:49.780 So if you add that in there, yeah, the deficit would have been higher. 00:41:49.960 --> 00:41:52.060 But that was straight up the tariff revenue. 00:41:53.250 --> 00:41:57.770 We both agreed that the debt limit would be increased. Was it increased, Yvonne? Yes. 00:41:58.830 --> 00:42:03.470 Not only increased, but increased by the biggest amount ever in the history 00:42:03.470 --> 00:42:06.530 of the debt limit. Just saying. 00:42:07.750 --> 00:42:13.110 Okay. I, however, said this will happen with Democrats plus a few Republicans, 00:42:13.110 --> 00:42:15.610 because that's how it had usually played out in the past. 00:42:15.810 --> 00:42:18.090 I believe that was not how it happened. 00:42:18.370 --> 00:42:20.110 This was increased as part of the 00:42:20.110 --> 00:42:22.970 big, beautiful bill, which was all the Republicans and a few Democrats. 00:42:23.250 --> 00:42:23.830 Right. 00:42:24.290 --> 00:42:26.730 Or most Republicans and a few Democrats. 00:42:27.270 --> 00:42:27.410 Right. 00:42:28.370 --> 00:42:33.830 Okay. We split on government shutdown. You said there would be one. 00:42:33.950 --> 00:42:35.610 I said there would not be one. 00:42:36.050 --> 00:42:37.390 Sam, were you right? 00:42:38.230 --> 00:42:40.010 I was not right. 00:42:40.690 --> 00:42:41.230 Right. 00:42:42.390 --> 00:42:46.230 However, you decided to be more specific in two ways. 00:42:46.670 --> 00:42:47.350 Oh, God. 00:42:48.490 --> 00:42:53.550 One, you said the government shutdown would happen the first time they got to 00:42:53.550 --> 00:42:55.130 a limit that they had to deal with. 00:42:55.670 --> 00:42:57.950 No, it was not the first time. 00:42:57.970 --> 00:43:01.230 They kicked the can down the road several times. It was later in the year. 00:43:01.470 --> 00:43:06.710 Yeah. You also predicted the shutdown would be brief. It was the longest ever. 00:43:06.710 --> 00:43:07.550 It was the longest ever. 00:43:08.810 --> 00:43:10.990 So you were wrong on both of those two. 00:43:10.990 --> 00:43:17.530 Jesus Christ, those extra two predictions. I completely self-sabotaged myself on that one. 00:43:19.030 --> 00:43:22.950 Okay, next up is one we might want to discuss a little bit to determine. 00:43:22.950 --> 00:43:33.150 The question was whether there would be state versus federal conflict on the 00:43:33.150 --> 00:43:38.690 ground in a way similar to the civil rights movement in the 1960s, 00:43:38.810 --> 00:43:45.510 where the feds sent out National Guard, federal troops, whatever, 00:43:45.830 --> 00:43:51.890 to enforce federal decisions over states, except obviously sort of in reverse. 00:43:52.950 --> 00:43:57.050 You had said, no, that will remain entirely in the courts. 00:43:57.430 --> 00:44:01.750 And I said there would be such conflict on the ground. 00:44:01.990 --> 00:44:06.210 The question is, does what happened count? 00:44:07.070 --> 00:44:15.710 Because we did have Trump send federalized National Guard and other troops into various cities. 00:44:16.350 --> 00:44:19.570 But is it sufficient to count as this? 00:44:19.710 --> 00:44:23.930 Because we also didn't have the states really. It's not like we had state forces 00:44:23.930 --> 00:44:28.430 battling federal forces, you know. Does this count? 00:44:28.450 --> 00:44:34.690 I think it counts because the reality is that there was conflict with local 00:44:34.690 --> 00:44:37.810 officials, even though they didn't go and, like, send out, like, 00:44:38.800 --> 00:44:42.220 In most cases, like, you know, police to go and, like, battle, 00:44:42.320 --> 00:44:45.520 like, federal troops. So, I'd say the answer is yes. 00:44:46.040 --> 00:44:47.880 Okay. So, I was right. You were wrong. 00:44:48.180 --> 00:44:48.540 Yeah. 00:44:49.180 --> 00:44:52.280 You furthermore specifically said no federal troops on the ground. 00:44:52.460 --> 00:44:53.900 There were federal troops on the ground. 00:44:53.900 --> 00:44:56.260 Oh, God. There were a lot of federal troops on the ground. 00:44:56.300 --> 00:45:00.080 Yes. And I said he would nationalize the Guard. So, I was right. 00:45:00.360 --> 00:45:03.340 At least part of the Guard. Yeah. Not all of it, obviously. 00:45:04.120 --> 00:45:13.600 Okay, next up is we split on whether the gross number of illegal border crossings 00:45:13.600 --> 00:45:17.580 would go up or down this year. Did it go up or down? 00:45:18.320 --> 00:45:19.320 Down, I think. 00:45:19.740 --> 00:45:23.700 It went down, which means I was right and you were wrong. You predicted it would go up. 00:45:25.280 --> 00:45:30.460 Now, this is one, I think I know the answer to this, but I will fully admit 00:45:30.460 --> 00:45:35.440 to not having a verified source of it. So total immigration, 00:45:35.440 --> 00:45:39.420 so legal and illegal, to the U.S. 00:45:39.600 --> 00:45:43.700 would go down. We both predicted it would go down. Did it go down this year? 00:45:44.340 --> 00:45:49.300 Yes. That's what I thought. I didn't bother verifying it, but basically because 00:45:49.300 --> 00:45:54.180 no one wants to come here anymore because we're being damn hostile to anybody who comes. 00:45:54.360 --> 00:45:55.420 Let me eat. 00:45:56.570 --> 00:46:03.310 Let me fact check that a little bit. It's not, I, this, this last weekend that I was in Disney. 00:46:03.470 --> 00:46:05.650 I was surprised at the number of international. Whenever you say nobody, 00:46:05.970 --> 00:46:07.350 it obviously, it's never nobody. 00:46:07.450 --> 00:46:11.510 I was surprised by the number of international visitors that were at Disney. 00:46:11.870 --> 00:46:18.330 Okay. From, from many countries. I mean, a lot of Asian visitors specifically 00:46:18.330 --> 00:46:26.470 that I saw, Latin American as well. Well, I was surprised by the number of international visitors. 00:46:26.610 --> 00:46:28.130 Yeah, obviously I was being hyperbolic saying nobody wants to come here. 00:46:28.170 --> 00:46:28.210 No, no, no. 00:46:28.610 --> 00:46:32.470 It's down, but it's like down 10% or something. It's not down like 50. 00:46:32.810 --> 00:46:37.050 It is down substantially. It's more specific for certain countries, 00:46:37.490 --> 00:46:43.590 which, you know, like Canadian visits are significantly down. 00:46:44.270 --> 00:46:48.370 I wonder why. Did we piss off Canada in some way? Yeah, just a tad. 00:46:49.330 --> 00:46:54.250 Just a little bit. But one thing is that international students at U.S. 00:46:54.970 --> 00:46:59.950 universities, the total number didn't really go down that much either, 00:47:00.350 --> 00:47:05.750 even with all the different actions and things that happened in the first few 00:47:05.750 --> 00:47:07.830 months of the administration. 00:47:09.610 --> 00:47:15.110 Okay. Next up, we split on deportations. I said they'd be up. 00:47:15.190 --> 00:47:16.430 You said they would not be up. 00:47:17.410 --> 00:47:20.670 They are up. They are up. They are up. Yes. 00:47:20.830 --> 00:47:26.950 I didn't get end-of-year numbers, but as of June, we were already almost at the 2024 numbers. 00:47:27.210 --> 00:47:30.190 They were at double the pace that they had been before. 00:47:31.090 --> 00:47:36.030 So I was right. You were wrong on that one. We both agreed, however, 00:47:36.330 --> 00:47:40.050 that there would be plenty of what we called show deportations, 00:47:40.050 --> 00:47:44.890 where they were just making examples of certain people and making sure it was 00:47:44.890 --> 00:47:48.210 on video and talking about them a lot. There were quite a few of those. 00:47:48.450 --> 00:47:53.910 There were quite a few of those. I mean, specifically the one that got all this, 00:47:54.510 --> 00:47:58.730 press coverage recently for the 60 Minutes thing, the ones that we sent to that 00:47:58.730 --> 00:48:04.770 terrorist prison And El Salvador was, yeah, El Salvador. 00:48:05.190 --> 00:48:07.790 I mean, yeah, it's Seacott. I mean, that was like. 00:48:08.230 --> 00:48:12.650 Well, and we have had all that attention on that guy in Maryland. 00:48:12.650 --> 00:48:14.150 I mean, he's still in the country. 00:48:14.430 --> 00:48:18.270 Well, he was out and then back, and then they're still trying to get rid of him. 00:48:18.830 --> 00:48:22.510 Abrego Garcia, was it? Yeah. Anyway, yes. 00:48:22.510 --> 00:48:27.630 But the courts firmly ruled in his favor that the whole thing was illegal. 00:48:28.330 --> 00:48:30.610 Oh, yeah, but they're trying under other grounds. 00:48:30.610 --> 00:48:33.190 I know. It's still in court right now. I know, but. 00:48:33.190 --> 00:48:36.650 The courts— They're fighting over which country to send him to now, 00:48:37.070 --> 00:48:42.470 as opposed to— And one of the latest things is he's actually agreed to go to 00:48:42.470 --> 00:48:46.350 one country that has said there and would be happy to take him. 00:48:47.590 --> 00:48:48.750 They don't want to send him there. 00:48:48.870 --> 00:48:53.030 They want to send him there. They want to send him somewhere else. 00:48:53.290 --> 00:48:57.850 Which is one of the reasons why the court went and was ruled against the federal 00:48:57.850 --> 00:49:04.430 government, because there is no legal basis for that. It's just to be... 00:49:05.680 --> 00:49:07.520 assholes. That's it. 00:49:07.740 --> 00:49:12.120 Pretty much. Anyway, that was the last question of the politics section. 00:49:13.100 --> 00:49:17.120 By the way, the deportation numbers that I was able to pull out, 00:49:17.360 --> 00:49:24.220 what the numbers are, full fiscal year 2024 was $271,000, okay, under Biden. 00:49:25.260 --> 00:49:29.840 Estimate for full fiscal year 2025 is $605,000. 00:49:30.320 --> 00:49:35.400 Right. Most definitely up. Yeah. Okay, so here's how we did. 00:49:35.900 --> 00:49:41.820 I made 49 predictions, of which 34 were correct. 00:49:42.000 --> 00:49:44.320 That's 69.4%. 00:49:44.320 --> 00:49:45.120 Nice. 00:49:45.720 --> 00:49:53.300 You made 41 predictions, of which 25 were correct. That's 61.0%. 00:49:53.300 --> 00:49:55.580 So, Sam, you're in the lead. 00:49:55.820 --> 00:50:01.320 I'm in the lead. Our combined number was 90 predictions, of which 59 were correct. 00:50:01.500 --> 00:50:08.220 That's 65.6%. I will also compare us to 2024. Our combined number again this 00:50:08.220 --> 00:50:10.080 year was 65.6%. I think we're better. 00:50:10.120 --> 00:50:13.500 Last year, our combined number was 41.3. 00:50:13.860 --> 00:50:15.700 Yeah, we're way better. 00:50:16.180 --> 00:50:19.200 We absolutely bombed last year. 00:50:19.340 --> 00:50:20.680 Oh, my God. It was so bad. 00:50:22.880 --> 00:50:26.220 It was so bad. Yeah, so we got 2024, like, completely wrong. 00:50:26.880 --> 00:50:29.620 We so fucked up 2024. 00:50:30.420 --> 00:50:35.580 Okay. With that, it is time to take a break. When we come back, 00:50:35.600 --> 00:50:38.380 it will be time for International. 00:50:39.240 --> 00:50:45.100 And so here is another breaky break break break break break thing. Here we go. 00:51:04.300 --> 00:51:08.180 Okay, moving on to international. 00:51:09.020 --> 00:51:13.980 We started out about whether or not there'd be a ceasefire in Ukraine. 00:51:14.500 --> 00:51:18.500 You said no, I said yes. There was no ceasefire in Ukraine. 00:51:18.960 --> 00:51:20.740 There was no ceasefire in Ukraine, yeah. 00:51:21.140 --> 00:51:25.820 So you were correct, I was wrong. You furthermore said there would, 00:51:25.940 --> 00:51:28.460 however, be lots of posturing and negotiation. 00:51:29.160 --> 00:51:31.380 Gee, Sam, was that right? 00:51:32.460 --> 00:51:38.800 Yes, you were right. We both further said there'd be no signed peace deal, 00:51:38.960 --> 00:51:43.060 which is separate from, of course, a ceasefire. We were both correct on that. 00:51:44.740 --> 00:51:50.820 I further said Ukraine would be struggling with the fact that they got less 00:51:50.820 --> 00:51:52.440 support from Trump than from Biden. 00:51:53.820 --> 00:51:55.760 That's kind of subjective. What would you say? 00:51:56.460 --> 00:52:00.060 I'd say they're about the same shape as they were before. I don't think anything 00:52:00.060 --> 00:52:01.260 really materially changed. 00:52:01.700 --> 00:52:02.580 So, no? 00:52:03.020 --> 00:52:03.900 Yeah, no. 00:52:06.500 --> 00:52:12.740 I almost want to fight you on that, but not quite, because Trump has provided less aid. 00:52:13.680 --> 00:52:16.680 The situation on the ground has been a stalemate for two years. 00:52:17.060 --> 00:52:20.360 Exactly. Did the situation materially change? Because the thing, 00:52:20.480 --> 00:52:21.940 they would be struggling because of that. 00:52:22.140 --> 00:52:25.880 Did the situation on the ground materially change because of that? The answer is no. 00:52:26.520 --> 00:52:26.740 Okay. 00:52:28.740 --> 00:52:32.160 I also said Ukraine would not be completely defeated. I was right. 00:52:32.980 --> 00:52:38.020 Then there was a question of whether or not there would still be a Ukrainian 00:52:38.020 --> 00:52:41.120 presence in Kursk at the end of the year. 00:52:41.540 --> 00:52:43.500 So I looked this up. 00:52:43.960 --> 00:52:45.320 I think the answer is no. 00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:49.320 The answer is yes, but just barely. Okay. 00:52:49.540 --> 00:52:57.000 They retreated from almost all of the territory they had occupied in Kursk like in April or May. 00:52:57.380 --> 00:53:04.720 Okay. But there are apparently a handful of small, little, tiny pockets where 00:53:04.720 --> 00:53:10.040 they are still across the border as of at least November. That was the latest data I can find. 00:53:10.080 --> 00:53:11.240 All right. Well. 00:53:11.800 --> 00:53:15.560 So we split on that. You were actually right. I was wrong. You said there would 00:53:15.560 --> 00:53:16.940 still be a presence in Kursk. 00:53:17.180 --> 00:53:18.240 There you go. Okay. 00:53:19.160 --> 00:53:27.880 The next question was, would Russia increase its percentage of control in Ukraine year over year? 00:53:28.220 --> 00:53:35.920 We both agreed that they would. We are both correct. They gained 0.8% of Ukrainian 00:53:35.920 --> 00:53:38.320 territory over the course of 2025. 00:53:38.940 --> 00:53:40.420 What was the number again? 00:53:40.860 --> 00:53:42.660 0.8%. 00:53:42.660 --> 00:53:46.360 Wow. I guess it's a gain. 00:53:46.360 --> 00:53:50.340 I think that's more of a gain than they had in 2024, actually. 00:53:50.600 --> 00:53:52.840 So they did accelerate a little bit. 00:53:53.020 --> 00:53:56.640 But it's just, you know, we're calling it, I mean, it's like, 00:53:57.000 --> 00:54:02.880 hey, I made a massive return on my investments this year of 0.8%. 00:54:03.700 --> 00:54:04.220 Yes. 00:54:06.190 --> 00:54:13.790 And by the way, the cost of that 0.8% in lives lost, people injured, 00:54:14.090 --> 00:54:17.850 equipment, and of course, cash is huge. 00:54:18.210 --> 00:54:19.070 It's ridiculous. 00:54:19.830 --> 00:54:25.890 Yes. Okay, we both agreed there would be no coup in Europe. Was there any coups in Europe? 00:54:26.230 --> 00:54:28.510 I don't recall any coups in Europe. 00:54:28.510 --> 00:54:36.650 Okay. We also both agreed that there would be no additional right-wing takeovers 00:54:36.650 --> 00:54:39.750 of governments in Europe in 2025. 00:54:40.550 --> 00:54:43.090 Were they right? I think we were right. 00:54:43.330 --> 00:54:45.770 I think we were right. Yeah. As a matter of fact, as anything, 00:54:45.970 --> 00:54:50.550 they actually shifted, you know, some, they made some gains. 00:54:51.010 --> 00:54:56.070 The next couple questions are about gains without changes in government. 00:54:56.070 --> 00:54:56.310 Yeah. 00:54:56.590 --> 00:55:02.490 This was just me. I said in France, we'd end up with a more conservative coalition 00:55:02.490 --> 00:55:04.170 at the end of the year than at the beginning. 00:55:04.770 --> 00:55:08.710 I don't think we did. There was a lot of chaos in France. 00:55:09.070 --> 00:55:13.190 They changed prime ministers that one resigned and then was immediately reappointed. 00:55:13.410 --> 00:55:18.330 There was craziness in France. But I think in the end, we sort of ended up at 00:55:18.330 --> 00:55:19.770 the same place as where we started. 00:55:20.370 --> 00:55:24.410 Does that sound right to you? I spent a little bit of time on Wikipedia trying 00:55:24.410 --> 00:55:29.110 to figure this out, but I clearly did not know enough about French politics 00:55:29.110 --> 00:55:30.350 to have a lot of certainty here. 00:55:30.610 --> 00:55:31.950 Well, I mean either. 00:55:32.210 --> 00:55:34.550 So I'm going to say no. 00:55:35.050 --> 00:55:35.370 OK. 00:55:37.790 --> 00:55:42.130 However, I did predict there'd be a more conservative coalition in Germany, 00:55:42.330 --> 00:55:47.010 not like the far right people take over, but it was more conservative than the beginning of the year. 00:55:47.010 --> 00:55:51.730 The conservatives did have some election success earlier in the year, 00:55:51.730 --> 00:55:54.850 and I believe they're actually the ones that formed a government. 00:55:55.170 --> 00:55:57.050 So I was right on that one. 00:55:58.040 --> 00:56:04.400 We both agreed that Russia would not invade any more countries in 2025. 00:56:05.080 --> 00:56:08.400 Yeah, Russia did not invade any more countries that I'm aware of, right? 00:56:08.700 --> 00:56:16.840 We are both correct. Then we split on whether Russia would still have a presence in Syria. 00:56:17.200 --> 00:56:21.180 You said no, I said yes. Do you know the answer to this one, Yvonne? 00:56:21.400 --> 00:56:23.000 I think the answer is no, right? 00:56:23.880 --> 00:56:28.800 No, Russia is still in Syria. They are. have bases in Syria. 00:56:29.420 --> 00:56:32.820 They've been in negotiation with the new government in Syria, 00:56:32.820 --> 00:56:38.500 who would probably prefer they leave, but so far they are still in their bases 00:56:38.500 --> 00:56:40.380 in Syria and they have not been kicked out. 00:56:41.940 --> 00:56:46.160 And we both predicted there would still be U.S. troops in Syria. 00:56:46.460 --> 00:56:48.440 There are, in fact, still U.S. 00:56:48.780 --> 00:56:53.860 troops in Syria. In fact, there were news reports as recently as mid-December 00:56:53.860 --> 00:56:56.580 of U.S. troops killed in Syria. 00:56:58.240 --> 00:57:02.700 So, yeah, we were both right on that one. Now, this next one, 00:57:02.940 --> 00:57:07.700 you had said there would be a new dictatorship in Syria. 00:57:08.520 --> 00:57:13.680 I'm going to count you as wrong on that one. because the government in Syria 00:57:13.680 --> 00:57:15.780 has not changed over the course of 2025. 00:57:16.340 --> 00:57:23.280 They did go from a transitional government to another transitional government, but it's the same guy. 00:57:23.840 --> 00:57:29.640 It's that same, you know, and so I'll say no new dictatorship. 00:57:30.040 --> 00:57:35.280 I said that the government in Syria would not be a tolerant, 00:57:35.560 --> 00:57:38.760 multicultural, friendly government. 00:57:39.840 --> 00:57:45.420 I'm going back and forth on that one because they've sort of tried to be. 00:57:45.540 --> 00:57:50.840 But haven't— Relative to the other stuff? 00:57:51.060 --> 00:58:00.560 I mean, shit, the answer's kind of like— Well, they are more tolerant than many others in the area. 00:58:00.980 --> 00:58:09.380 They are. Now, there have been some issues with their treatment of certain minorities— Yeah. 00:58:09.480 --> 00:58:12.560 Yeah, yeah. But every country has issues with treatments of certain minorities. 00:58:12.940 --> 00:58:15.240 Yes, obviously, including us. 00:58:15.760 --> 00:58:16.060 Yes. 00:58:17.980 --> 00:58:25.900 But, yeah, just in general, they have been, I don't know, I'm going to count myself wrong. 00:58:26.440 --> 00:58:26.760 Yeah. 00:58:27.260 --> 00:58:32.720 Yeah, they're not perfect. But as governments in that region go, 00:58:33.080 --> 00:58:35.580 they're not anywhere near the worst. 00:58:35.920 --> 00:58:38.480 That's right. That is absolutely right. 00:58:40.420 --> 00:58:42.660 I also predicted that the Syrian 00:58:42.660 --> 00:58:45.900 government would not be in control of the whole country. I was correct. 00:58:46.180 --> 00:58:51.260 The Syrian civil war continues just with a different set of players. 00:58:51.680 --> 00:58:51.980 Essentially. 00:58:52.840 --> 00:58:58.460 We both agreed that there would be no democratically elected government in Syria yet. 00:58:58.860 --> 00:59:04.200 We're both correct. It's still some sort of transitional temporary government, blah, blah, blah. 00:59:05.540 --> 00:59:10.620 Theoretically, they are saying all the right things about they want to move 00:59:10.620 --> 00:59:12.000 beyond that, but they haven't yet. 00:59:13.020 --> 00:59:13.160 Okay. 00:59:13.720 --> 00:59:21.080 Okay. We both were fairly sure that Benjamin Netanyahu would no longer be Prime 00:59:21.080 --> 00:59:22.680 Minister of Israel by the end of the year. 00:59:22.960 --> 00:59:24.980 We're pretty fucking wrong. 00:59:25.960 --> 00:59:27.560 We were indeed wrong. 00:59:27.800 --> 00:59:29.420 I mean, a guy's a cockroach. 00:59:31.240 --> 00:59:36.340 We both agreed there would be a ceasefire in gaza by the end of the year there was yeah. 00:59:36.340 --> 00:59:37.660 There was yeah. 00:59:37.660 --> 00:59:44.640 I furthermore said that the ceasefire would basically be on israel's terms that's. 00:59:44.640 --> 00:59:46.860 Pretty much correct yes. 00:59:46.860 --> 00:59:49.700 So i was right i will take this moment to note that 00:59:49.700 --> 00:59:52.480 as i was putting together these notes i was being 00:59:52.480 --> 00:59:56.660 very sloppy and typing quickly and not paying attention to typos so for instance 00:59:56.660 --> 01:00:04.820 what it actually says on my little spreadsheet is si rassi fire not ceasefire 01:00:04.820 --> 01:00:10.900 a si rassi fire well okay yeah it's a si rassi fire, 01:00:11.640 --> 01:00:17.320 we both agree we both agreed no full withdrawal from gaza we were both correct. 01:00:17.320 --> 01:00:18.260 We're both correct. 01:00:18.260 --> 01:00:23.320 We both agreed no saudi recognition of israel we were both correct Correct. 01:00:24.970 --> 01:00:29.130 We both agreed that the war in Yemen would continue. We were both correct. 01:00:30.710 --> 01:00:36.130 We both agreed there would be no Western country that fully normalized relationships 01:00:36.130 --> 01:00:38.690 with Iran. We were correct. 01:00:39.250 --> 01:00:45.390 No Western normalization. We both agreed there would be no widespread Mideast war. 01:00:45.770 --> 01:00:49.190 Like the conflict wouldn't spread and become like, you know, 01:00:49.270 --> 01:00:56.350 a massive war involving many countries. I mean, I guess you can count, like, this is a no. 01:00:56.870 --> 01:01:01.110 Like, there were, you know, at various points, Lebanon was involved, 01:01:01.290 --> 01:01:06.290 Israel was involved, Iran, Jordan was involved in some ways. 01:01:06.430 --> 01:01:10.410 We got, you know, but there was no, we were talking about like a massive multi-country 01:01:10.410 --> 01:01:12.550 war going on, and that never happened. 01:01:13.170 --> 01:01:15.030 So we were both correct on that. 01:01:16.330 --> 01:01:21.530 We split on whether Trump would reopen talks with North Korea. 01:01:22.230 --> 01:01:25.850 You thought he would. I thought he would not. What happened, Yvonne? 01:01:26.590 --> 01:01:28.510 We haven't talked to North Korea, right? 01:01:28.950 --> 01:01:31.990 No. Which means I was right and you were wrong. 01:01:32.250 --> 01:01:36.890 Oh, well. I figured he would. I mean, he liked the guy so much. 01:01:36.890 --> 01:01:40.170 I figured that he was, you know, going to go over there and, 01:01:40.190 --> 01:01:42.630 you know, would be chummy again. 01:01:43.490 --> 01:01:46.910 Next up, you specifically predicted that North Korea, however, 01:01:47.190 --> 01:01:49.870 would make trouble again over the course of the year. 01:01:50.550 --> 01:01:54.750 Now, just last week we were talking about this. Apparently they did a few things, 01:01:54.870 --> 01:01:56.030 but nobody's paying any attention. 01:01:56.450 --> 01:02:01.610 So, yeah. So the answer is no, I guess. Because nobody—I mean, 01:02:01.690 --> 01:02:04.190 it's not enough that anybody even noticed. 01:02:04.890 --> 01:02:09.570 Right. Like, they apparently have been trying to make trouble, but failing. 01:02:10.030 --> 01:02:10.550 Yeah. 01:02:11.070 --> 01:02:13.790 Because nobody's paid any attention or cared. 01:02:14.110 --> 01:02:14.310 Right. 01:02:14.670 --> 01:02:20.090 At least publicly. It hasn't been a big thing in the news. Okay, now, 01:02:21.540 --> 01:02:27.340 The next one, Ed had asked us a very specific question, and then we ended up 01:02:27.340 --> 01:02:28.880 sort of answering something else, I think. 01:02:29.240 --> 01:02:33.760 So I will point out that Ed had asked specifically about whether ASML, 01:02:34.320 --> 01:02:38.940 which is a semiconductor company based out of Europe, I think, 01:02:39.440 --> 01:02:41.440 would break ground in the U.S. 01:02:41.860 --> 01:02:46.700 That apparently did happen, but we did not actually answer his question. 01:02:46.700 --> 01:02:54.900 We answered a slightly related question about whether or not there'd be a big new U.S. 01:02:55.100 --> 01:02:57.740 push into domestic semiconductor production. 01:02:58.380 --> 01:03:02.140 I don't think there was, Yvonne. What would be your answer to that? 01:03:02.520 --> 01:03:06.700 There wasn't. I mean, there wasn't. 01:03:06.720 --> 01:03:09.640 There might be like little things opening here and there like what. 01:03:09.640 --> 01:03:15.040 Yeah, but if anything, we wound up with a situation where stuff that Biden had, 01:03:15.040 --> 01:03:22.240 you know, had pushed was actually, you know, kind of short-circuited by this administration. 01:03:22.800 --> 01:03:27.980 Okay. So we were both right. Next up, and this is a judge, you know, 01:03:28.040 --> 01:03:30.560 I'm going to ask you to judge yourself on this one. 01:03:30.780 --> 01:03:33.800 You said relations with China will improve. 01:03:34.980 --> 01:03:35.480 No. 01:03:36.280 --> 01:03:42.420 Okay. I will count you as wrong in that. I said the relationship with China 01:03:42.420 --> 01:03:47.800 will be a mixed bag and specifically Trump will be less willing to confront 01:03:47.800 --> 01:03:50.680 them on defense, but more willing to confront them on trade. 01:03:51.640 --> 01:03:52.160 Yes. 01:03:52.580 --> 01:03:54.420 Yes on all three? Okay. 01:03:54.780 --> 01:03:58.360 Yeah, I mean, he was willing. Yeah, he was definitely willing to challenge them 01:03:58.360 --> 01:04:00.080 more on trade, but not on other stuff. 01:04:00.480 --> 01:04:08.940 Yep. Okay. Excellent. Next up, we both agreed that China would not invade Taiwan. we were china. 01:04:08.940 --> 01:04:11.400 Has not invaded taiwan as far as i'm. 01:04:11.400 --> 01:04:17.300 Next up would gdp in argentina be up. 01:04:18.770 --> 01:04:20.370 I think the answer is yes. 01:04:20.990 --> 01:04:26.330 Yes, it was. So you predicted that it would be, and it was indeed. 01:04:26.790 --> 01:04:27.270 Okay. 01:04:28.050 --> 01:04:34.770 Next up, you'd said, however, that even though it would be up 2024 to 2025, 01:04:35.330 --> 01:04:40.550 it would not be back up to the levels before— What's the president's name? 01:04:40.710 --> 01:04:43.170 M-something. How do you pronounce his name? What does he—, 01:04:45.630 --> 01:04:50.310 I mean, the current president— He's the libertarian president of Argentina. 01:04:50.310 --> 01:04:54.410 Oh, what's his name now? Yeah. Milet. 01:04:54.470 --> 01:04:54.790 Did I say it? 01:04:54.830 --> 01:04:56.590 Milet. Milet. Milet. Milet. 01:04:56.970 --> 01:05:01.930 Anyway, you said GDP would not be back up to levels from before Milet. 01:05:03.010 --> 01:05:07.590 I looked this up. It appears that GDP is at new highs. So you were wrong. 01:05:08.210 --> 01:05:08.390 Okay. 01:05:09.310 --> 01:05:14.970 And to be clear, this was GDP absolute, not GDP growth. 01:05:15.410 --> 01:05:17.630 GDP growth is not at new highs. 01:05:18.470 --> 01:05:24.610 but absolute level of GDP is at new highs for 2025 from what I found. 01:05:25.130 --> 01:05:27.730 You can check me if you want. I was looking at worldometers. 01:05:29.350 --> 01:05:36.050 The estimate, yes. By the IMF, yes. It is higher. 01:05:36.350 --> 01:05:39.190 By a little bit, but yes. 01:05:39.350 --> 01:05:39.810 A little bit. 01:05:39.890 --> 01:05:46.270 It is higher. But it is higher. Well, one of the things, you know, 01:05:46.330 --> 01:05:48.610 the thing is that this is, we're measuring it in dollars. 01:05:48.910 --> 01:05:52.870 And the currency has been incredibly overvalued, making the purchasing power 01:05:52.870 --> 01:05:57.730 of the peso right now, like, really crazy overvalued. And so, 01:05:57.970 --> 01:06:00.990 yeah, so that's why it's it's showing that way. 01:06:01.870 --> 01:06:05.850 OK, next up, we both agreed that the U.S. 01:06:05.950 --> 01:06:11.550 would not annex Panama or any part of Panama like the canal. We were both correct. 01:06:11.850 --> 01:06:12.910 I think we're both correct. 01:06:13.470 --> 01:06:20.190 Now, I said more so than that. Trump will, however, try to extract something 01:06:20.190 --> 01:06:24.710 from Panama in exchange for not taking over the canal. He forgot about Panama. 01:06:26.070 --> 01:06:31.890 Yeah, I think there was some talk about that back, like, in December when we 01:06:31.890 --> 01:06:34.050 made this prediction show, but it basically disappeared. 01:06:34.330 --> 01:06:35.910 Yeah, he's completely forgotten about it. 01:06:36.050 --> 01:06:38.830 So I'll say no, he didn't really. 01:06:38.990 --> 01:06:44.930 I mean, maybe something behind the scenes happened, but basically Panama stopped being talked about. 01:06:44.930 --> 01:06:49.850 The only thing that I remember was something about... Well, well, 01:06:50.370 --> 01:06:53.550 okay, now, there was one thing that happened, okay? 01:06:54.490 --> 01:06:58.990 Hang on. Let me double check. Let me double check, but I think that there was... 01:06:59.970 --> 01:07:03.570 Let me let me let me see if I OK. 01:07:04.750 --> 01:07:09.910 I'm looking this up. Hang on. I think there was a deal. 01:07:13.690 --> 01:07:23.130 There had been a push for a deal to take China out of management of ports in 01:07:23.130 --> 01:07:26.090 in Panama that was done by Hutchison. 01:07:26.410 --> 01:07:34.030 OK, and they did push them through that. But I don't think the deal actually happened. 01:07:34.150 --> 01:07:36.130 As a matter of fact, there's an article here. 01:07:36.310 --> 01:07:40.830 The prediction was Trump will try to extract something. 01:07:41.210 --> 01:07:48.070 OK, so the answer is yes. Yes. What they were trying to do was that they were 01:07:48.070 --> 01:07:57.950 demanding that Hong Kong-based Hutchinson cease managing the ports and move 01:07:57.950 --> 01:08:00.890 those operations to U.S. 01:08:00.970 --> 01:08:05.430 investors because the ports are strategic here in the U.S. 01:08:05.430 --> 01:08:09.530 they they have been still negotiating that as a matter of wall street journal 01:08:09.530 --> 01:08:14.690 reported on that that they're still working on that as of december 14th of the 01:08:14.690 --> 01:08:18.670 year and that started way earlier in the year so the answer is yes they have been pushing for that. 01:08:18.670 --> 01:08:29.110 Okay next question no non-peaceful transitions of power in the americas now 01:08:29.110 --> 01:08:32.710 venezuela was 2026 so it does not count. 01:08:32.710 --> 01:08:33.790 That I don't think. 01:08:33.790 --> 01:08:37.190 There were any others. No. Were there? I'm not forgetting any. 01:08:37.430 --> 01:08:42.950 I mean, not that the, that, that, that, that non-peaceful, that the U.S. 01:08:42.990 --> 01:08:44.430 was involved or just in general? 01:08:44.930 --> 01:08:49.290 Just in general. In the Americas, non-peaceful transfer of power. 01:08:49.510 --> 01:08:55.530 Like, as far as I know, every, every transfer of power was sort of regularly 01:08:55.530 --> 01:08:58.930 scheduled according to the rules, blah, blah, blah. 01:08:59.350 --> 01:09:02.690 Let me double check. I thought I was thinking about Ecuador, maybe. 01:09:04.640 --> 01:09:06.220 There were some impeachments. 01:09:07.680 --> 01:09:09.940 Well, even an impeachment would be peaceful. 01:09:10.740 --> 01:09:14.040 True. Yeah, everything went normal. Okay. 01:09:14.720 --> 01:09:20.120 Okay. We were both correct then. Now, you know, if the weather had cooperated 01:09:20.120 --> 01:09:22.680 with Donald Trump, we would have been wrong. 01:09:22.860 --> 01:09:23.660 We would have been wrong. 01:09:23.980 --> 01:09:27.020 Because he wanted to do the Venezuela thing on Christmas Day. 01:09:27.480 --> 01:09:31.640 But A, the Nigeria thing took precedence, which got done on Christmas Day instead. 01:09:31.960 --> 01:09:34.140 And then they had to wait for good weather. 01:09:34.640 --> 01:09:38.180 Such lovely holiday presents that we get from our president. 01:09:39.960 --> 01:09:44.160 Okay, next up, we both agreed that Canada would not be the 51st state. 01:09:45.120 --> 01:09:47.300 I think that we are correct. 01:09:48.340 --> 01:09:52.180 We both agreed that Trump would not invade Mexico. We were right. 01:09:52.180 --> 01:09:53.740 I think we're accurate on that one. 01:09:54.060 --> 01:09:56.780 We both agreed that Trump would not invade Canada. 01:09:57.300 --> 01:09:59.520 No, we didn't invade Canada, yeah. 01:10:00.020 --> 01:10:03.320 We both agreed that we would not buy Greenland. 01:10:04.260 --> 01:10:05.600 We haven't bought Greenland. 01:10:06.000 --> 01:10:10.380 We both agreed that Trump would not trade Puerto Rico for Greenland. 01:10:11.100 --> 01:10:16.360 Unfortunately, Trump has not traded Puerto Rico for Greenland. I'm sad to report. 01:10:16.660 --> 01:10:21.680 We both agreed that there would be no new war between UN member states. 01:10:22.040 --> 01:10:23.680 I believe we were correct. 01:10:24.440 --> 01:10:28.740 And we specified it had to be between UN member states to sort of take off the 01:10:28.740 --> 01:10:33.660 table, like internal conflicts and... And, uh, hang on. 01:10:33.760 --> 01:10:34.220 Hang on. 01:10:34.440 --> 01:10:37.520 Okay. And, and it had to be new in 2025. 01:10:37.900 --> 01:10:38.700 Not a civil war. 01:10:38.960 --> 01:10:43.900 Not a civil war. Now we did have all these wars that Trump stopped. 01:10:44.000 --> 01:10:47.080 Were any of those new in 2025? And then he stopped them. 01:10:48.120 --> 01:10:53.880 I don't think any of them were full. I mean, even when they were like border skirmishes and stuff. 01:10:53.900 --> 01:10:59.920 So we had the India-Pakistan armed conflict. Okay. So we had that. But was it a war? 01:11:00.540 --> 01:11:01.720 I mean, I guess. 01:11:02.020 --> 01:11:02.540 It was three days. 01:11:03.780 --> 01:11:06.500 So is that a yes? There was a new war? 01:11:06.500 --> 01:11:12.540 There was a Thailand-Cambodia border war that happened during July 2025. 01:11:13.840 --> 01:11:14.360 Okay. 01:11:14.360 --> 01:11:18.940 I mean, Iran and Israel did fucking shoot at each other for. 01:11:19.160 --> 01:11:21.900 Yeah. I guess that there's fuzziness 01:11:21.900 --> 01:11:25.720 in here in terms of how severe something has to be to be a full war. 01:11:25.840 --> 01:11:27.880 I mean, I guess, yeah, exactly. I mean, what is. 01:11:28.160 --> 01:11:30.960 I mean, is it like a war or something? Like, did we just have a war with Venezuela or not? 01:11:32.720 --> 01:11:37.980 Well, okay, here's the thing. These were all short skirmishes. 01:11:38.640 --> 01:11:39.040 Right. 01:11:39.260 --> 01:11:39.420 Right? 01:11:40.200 --> 01:11:41.700 I mean, I have to say. Do they count? 01:11:41.700 --> 01:11:48.260 I don't, I mean, I think that, I mean, where's, you know, you know, 01:11:48.900 --> 01:11:53.960 what is a reasonable amount of time for a conflict to become a war? 01:11:55.000 --> 01:11:59.420 I mean, back in the old days, you'd say, was there a formal declaration of war? 01:11:59.540 --> 01:12:00.720 But nobody does that anymore. 01:12:01.080 --> 01:12:03.500 Right. We don't have that. We don't have that. So. 01:12:04.240 --> 01:12:08.380 I mean, like Ukraine and Russia clearly counted. Right. That's a war. 01:12:08.440 --> 01:12:10.800 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a war. That's a war. 01:12:11.720 --> 01:12:16.740 You know, and I'd say, and, you know, it's not a member state, 01:12:16.860 --> 01:12:19.720 but Israel-Gaza, that was a war. 01:12:19.940 --> 01:12:24.140 That was a war. That was a war. It was the length of time that was a war. 01:12:24.740 --> 01:12:26.140 So would you count these or not? 01:12:26.720 --> 01:12:28.020 They were too short. 01:12:28.600 --> 01:12:30.140 Okay. So we'll say, yes. 01:12:30.140 --> 01:12:32.960 There was no war. Yeah, they were too short. 01:12:34.390 --> 01:12:35.690 They were just too short. 01:12:36.350 --> 01:12:42.150 Yes, no new war. We also said there would be no new civil wars that would be 01:12:42.150 --> 01:12:45.030 significant enough that we would pay attention to them on the show. 01:12:45.630 --> 01:12:50.690 There were all kinds of civil wars across the world going on, 01:12:50.710 --> 01:12:53.850 but I don't think we spent a significant amount of time talking about any. 01:12:54.550 --> 01:12:59.130 That's true. Did we spend a lot of time talking about? No, even though there are. 01:12:59.270 --> 01:13:00.570 Like a whole segment. 01:13:00.690 --> 01:13:04.090 We mentioned Sudan. That was a whole bunch of. Exactly. I was going to say Sudan. 01:13:04.090 --> 01:13:09.150 Yeah, we've mentioned it, but we we've never like if you add up all the times we talked about. 01:13:09.170 --> 01:13:10.410 We don't know enough about it. 01:13:10.670 --> 01:13:11.250 Fucking year. 01:13:11.710 --> 01:13:15.090 Yeah, we don't know enough about it. I agree. We don't know enough about it. 01:13:15.250 --> 01:13:19.010 We just don't. That's that's that's on us. But, you know. 01:13:20.070 --> 01:13:26.350 OK, so, yes, we were right about that. And that is the end of the international section. 01:13:27.770 --> 01:13:36.850 OK, ready for the stats, Yvonne? I made 40 predictions, of which 34 were correct. 01:13:36.850 --> 01:13:47.110 That's 85.0%. You made 34 predictions, of which 27 were correct. That's 79.4%. 01:13:47.110 --> 01:13:49.250 We're pretty good on international. 01:13:49.530 --> 01:13:57.070 So collectively, 74 predictions, 61 correct. That's 82.4%. And if we compare 01:13:57.070 --> 01:14:01.930 to last year, 79.5% last year. 01:14:02.070 --> 01:14:04.390 So we're up on this category as well. 01:14:04.790 --> 01:14:06.230 We improved again. 01:14:07.050 --> 01:14:14.370 Okay. So time for another break. And then we will come back and do economy slash business. 01:14:14.950 --> 01:14:19.730 And as usual, by the way, each one of these tends to be shorter than the one 01:14:19.730 --> 01:14:21.470 before as we go through this. 01:14:21.750 --> 01:14:26.310 So you're past the bulk of it already. So, here we go! 01:15:27.230 --> 01:15:30.370 Okay, here we are. And actually, this section is really short. 01:15:31.030 --> 01:15:37.170 So, for some reason, we did not do a lot of economy stuff last time around. 01:15:37.430 --> 01:15:42.970 Okay, first up, we both predicted that mergers would ramp up under Trump. Were we correct? 01:15:43.830 --> 01:15:48.010 I think the answer is yes, but I got to look up data on it. Hold on. 01:15:48.010 --> 01:15:53.090 I found a number of articles talking about how mergers were up, 01:15:53.150 --> 01:15:58.770 and there was lots of merger activity with people excited about the regulatory 01:15:58.770 --> 01:16:00.670 environment being more lenient. 01:16:01.710 --> 01:16:05.390 But I'll let you confirm it. Did you confirm it? 01:16:05.630 --> 01:16:12.890 I'm looking. I'm trying to search. Hang on. The answer, yes. Confirm. Yes. 01:16:13.590 --> 01:16:22.850 Yes. Okay. you predicted and for some reason i didn't but no 2025 recession were you correct yeah. 01:16:22.850 --> 01:16:26.050 There's no recession in 2025 as far as we know. 01:16:26.050 --> 01:16:34.050 Now we gave we both agreed on a sort of wishy-washy prediction about antitrust 01:16:34.050 --> 01:16:40.150 yeah uh the prediction was basically that some antitrust efforts would be canceled, 01:16:40.450 --> 01:16:46.130 but Trump will also keep some of them because of Trump's transactional approach for everything. 01:16:46.290 --> 01:16:49.990 Basically, if he liked you, he would stop going after you. 01:16:50.030 --> 01:16:56.570 If he didn't like you, he would sick them on you and do all the antitrust stuff he could. 01:16:58.590 --> 01:17:01.030 Is that correct? Is that how it played out? 01:17:01.230 --> 01:17:07.070 We couldn't have been more accurate if we fucking had a damn Nostradamus on our team. 01:17:07.750 --> 01:17:08.350 Ha ha. 01:17:10.320 --> 01:17:17.520 Okay. Next up, tariffs. We both agreed that the overriding theme of tariffs would be similar. 01:17:17.860 --> 01:17:23.700 That regardless of anything else, in the end, they would all be transactional. 01:17:24.400 --> 01:17:28.980 You know, Trump would, you know, tariff or not tariff based on how much he liked you. 01:17:29.620 --> 01:17:32.760 No. Were we right, Sam? 01:17:33.320 --> 01:17:35.500 I believe we were. 01:17:36.220 --> 01:17:39.680 I mean, we couldn't have, again, we couldn't have been more accurate. 01:17:40.120 --> 01:17:42.240 We had a fucking, you know, damn. 01:17:42.780 --> 01:17:48.700 Now, there were announcements of sort of these global values and all this kind of stuff. 01:17:48.720 --> 01:17:49.180 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:17:49.180 --> 01:17:52.080 But then they all got adjusted based on this kind of stuff. 01:17:52.220 --> 01:18:00.360 And then you showed up with a fucking, like, custom Rolex and on the desk and, you know, a gold orb. 01:18:00.500 --> 01:18:03.340 And all of a sudden, your tariffs got reduced. 01:18:03.880 --> 01:18:07.240 Right. Okay, next one. 01:18:08.420 --> 01:18:13.320 You're going to have to judge yourself on this one, too. You said there would 01:18:13.320 --> 01:18:19.720 not be enough tariffs so the average consumer would notice the difference. 01:18:21.100 --> 01:18:26.160 I think I'm wrong. The average consumer has been bitching to all hell about 01:18:26.160 --> 01:18:29.360 the affordability right now and prices soaring. 01:18:29.360 --> 01:18:37.580 And they can't put their thumb on exactly why, because of the delayed effect. 01:18:38.520 --> 01:18:38.600 Right. 01:18:39.840 --> 01:18:41.940 I mean, like I mentioned about my coffee today. 01:18:42.240 --> 01:18:42.860 Yes. 01:18:43.220 --> 01:18:47.940 It's double. I mean, I've been buying that shit for a long time. 01:18:48.300 --> 01:18:50.540 I mean, it's doubled in price. 01:18:51.300 --> 01:19:00.060 Mm-hmm. Okay. Yeah. We could debate whether or not knowing that it's because 01:19:00.060 --> 01:19:02.300 of tariffs matters to this question. 01:19:02.300 --> 01:19:07.660 But I think the average consumer has noticed an effect of the tariffs. 01:19:07.800 --> 01:19:09.320 They have noticed that. 01:19:09.320 --> 01:19:10.600 They know that's what it is. 01:19:10.780 --> 01:19:13.340 Right. They can't afford shit. 01:19:14.060 --> 01:19:20.760 Okay. Next up, we both agreed that there would be no significant impact from 01:19:20.760 --> 01:19:24.000 the tariffs on reshoring manufacturing. 01:19:24.820 --> 01:19:28.540 That's been 100%. Yes. Look at the employment figures. Yes. 01:19:29.450 --> 01:19:34.510 The only thing that propped up the economy in the second half was AI investment. 01:19:35.090 --> 01:19:40.430 If it wasn't for AI investment, we would have been in a recession. Straight up. That's it. 01:19:41.070 --> 01:19:44.550 Next up are a whole bunch of up and downs for various values. 01:19:45.150 --> 01:19:48.390 We both agreed that inflation would be up. 01:19:48.870 --> 01:19:54.270 Now, typically, we use the November number for this and compare November to November. 01:19:55.610 --> 01:20:03.170 November 2024 was 2.7%. November 2025 was 2.7%. 01:20:03.170 --> 01:20:07.030 Well, let me pull up a comparison over here. 01:20:07.070 --> 01:20:09.630 So that means inflation is not up. 01:20:10.590 --> 01:20:11.750 Let me see. Hold on. 01:20:12.770 --> 01:20:16.910 I have 2.7% for both Novembers from my source. 01:20:17.470 --> 01:20:20.150 Okay, if we go for a full calendar year. 01:20:20.490 --> 01:20:20.970 Yeah. 01:20:21.170 --> 01:20:25.350 Okay, or at least the dates that we have so far. 01:20:25.510 --> 01:20:29.650 We have never done that before. We've always just compared the November number to the November number. 01:20:30.270 --> 01:20:35.530 Now, we didn't specify, so I guess you could argue to try to do a full year number instead. 01:20:36.850 --> 01:20:42.490 You see, the thing is that it, because remember that we had this problems with 01:20:42.490 --> 01:20:44.510 like the data reporting, okay? 01:20:45.070 --> 01:20:45.630 Uh-huh. 01:20:46.950 --> 01:20:50.750 The number for last November, what did you say it was? 01:20:50.990 --> 01:20:51.950 2.7. 01:20:52.330 --> 01:20:53.370 2.7. 01:20:53.810 --> 01:20:57.290 I'll send you, I'll text you the link that I used. 01:20:58.570 --> 01:21:02.710 Here's the site I used for this. As Yvonne looks. 01:21:05.970 --> 01:21:09.850 2.7. You see, the problem that 01:21:09.850 --> 01:21:16.530 we've got is that if you look at that chart specifically, what happened? 01:21:16.950 --> 01:21:21.030 And I'm, again, looking at usinflationcalculator.com. Yes, go ahead. 01:21:21.310 --> 01:21:22.930 What happened with this chart, Sam? 01:21:23.310 --> 01:21:25.450 Well, we've got a missing October number. 01:21:25.630 --> 01:21:26.330 That's right. 01:21:26.870 --> 01:21:30.290 But we're looking at November. And we have a November number. 01:21:31.650 --> 01:21:36.750 And they're equal, which since we both said it would be up, I'm counting us both as wrong. 01:21:38.050 --> 01:21:40.350 I mean, if we go by the... 01:21:40.350 --> 01:21:45.230 Now, if you look at full year, we're still wrong. Like, if you look at every single month... 01:21:45.230 --> 01:21:49.870 Actually, the problem is it depends on what data you use to fill out the data that's missing. Okay. 01:21:50.650 --> 01:21:51.350 Oh, yes. 01:21:51.610 --> 01:21:56.610 And I have some people that estimate, based on what they believe happened in 01:21:56.610 --> 01:22:02.470 October, it actually was higher if you punch that number in. so. 01:22:02.470 --> 01:22:05.670 Well but again like if you look month to month. 01:22:05.670 --> 01:22:11.210 Can i just say something i'm sorry i based on what happened with the data reporting 01:22:11.210 --> 01:22:14.290 with the fucking federal government we can't just don't believe anything anymore 01:22:14.290 --> 01:22:20.590 now we don't have the data to actually accurately do this stupid question, 01:22:21.190 --> 01:22:27.250 they they fucking went and like sabotaged the data reporting it's not comparable 01:22:27.250 --> 01:22:30.070 apples to apples anymore so. 01:22:30.070 --> 01:22:33.750 I still lean to saying we got it wrong do you want to actually. 01:22:33.750 --> 01:22:38.170 Disqualify this i'm disqualifying this question okay. 01:22:38.170 --> 01:22:43.570 I'll disqualify the question so it just doesn't count next. 01:22:43.570 --> 01:22:47.790 If i go by the way i pulled up there is somewhere here let me see what this 01:22:47.790 --> 01:22:51.830 is no they don't have the seasonally adjusted number either. 01:22:52.270 --> 01:22:54.930 No, because the data is missing. Yeah. 01:22:57.490 --> 01:23:00.670 Yeah, no, I'm disqualifying the question. I mean, there is a number there. 01:23:00.730 --> 01:23:04.230 There's a chart further down which shows you seasonally adjusted inflation that 01:23:04.230 --> 01:23:09.670 goes monthly that shows you the thing instead of like the annual inflation rate. Okay. 01:23:09.950 --> 01:23:12.130 Which is what you were looking at. We're looking at the top. 01:23:12.710 --> 01:23:15.330 And look at what happens in October or November. There's no number reported. 01:23:16.310 --> 01:23:16.710 Right. 01:23:17.250 --> 01:23:18.630 Which that would be actually, 01:23:20.960 --> 01:23:24.660 But we have no number. We have no number. 01:23:25.340 --> 01:23:29.520 This fucking administration has broken everything. 01:23:30.380 --> 01:23:35.100 Okay. Well, the next one is also one that relies on government numbers, which is unemployment. 01:23:35.620 --> 01:23:40.660 We both agreed that it would be up. The BLS number, again, comparing November 01:23:40.660 --> 01:23:49.300 to November, goes from 4.2 in 2024 to 4.4 in 2025. So, yes, up, just barely. 01:23:49.300 --> 01:23:55.020 It's up, and even if you go with the private number data from other people, 01:23:55.160 --> 01:23:56.380 it confirms that the number is up. 01:23:56.780 --> 01:24:03.420 This one, there is corroboration that unemployment is up. So, yeah. 01:24:04.780 --> 01:24:10.220 Okay, next up, we both agreed that Apple stock would be up for the year. 01:24:10.660 --> 01:24:11.700 That we were right. 01:24:11.940 --> 01:24:17.060 We were right. We both agreed the Dow would be up for the year. We were right. 01:24:17.240 --> 01:24:17.840 We were right. 01:24:19.060 --> 01:24:23.260 You predicted Bitcoin would be up, but I predicted Bitcoin would be down. 01:24:23.800 --> 01:24:25.320 I was right. You were wrong. 01:24:25.860 --> 01:24:26.080 Okay. 01:24:26.500 --> 01:24:29.180 It's fairly flat, but it was down a little bit. 01:24:29.360 --> 01:24:31.900 It was down. It was down. It was down. Just a little bit. For the whole year. 01:24:33.030 --> 01:24:37.810 Next up, eggs. We both agreed the price of eggs would be up. 01:24:38.430 --> 01:24:41.590 No. The price of eggs are down significantly. 01:24:42.270 --> 01:24:45.230 Down quite a bit from the end of last year. 01:24:45.910 --> 01:24:51.990 And then we split also on West Texas Intermediate Oil. 01:24:52.350 --> 01:24:56.770 You said it would be down. I said it would be up. It is very much down. 01:24:57.490 --> 01:25:04.290 So you were right. I was wrong. And we are already at the end of the economic section. 01:25:05.230 --> 01:25:05.270 Okay. 01:25:05.570 --> 01:25:10.050 I made 10 predictions of which I got eight correct. That's 80%. 01:25:10.050 --> 01:25:14.810 You made 12 predictions of which you got nine correct. 01:25:15.050 --> 01:25:21.090 That's 75%. So combined, 22 predictions, 17 right. 01:25:21.290 --> 01:25:29.790 That's 77.3%. Last year, we were at 61.5. so third category in a row we beat 01:25:29.790 --> 01:25:35.610 last year there you go and third category in a row i did better than you. 01:25:35.610 --> 01:25:40.330 Sam has been kicking my asses here. 01:25:40.330 --> 01:25:47.450 Yeah i i i'm i'm amazing i'm incredible that is the way things go incredible 01:25:47.450 --> 01:25:53.530 nostra samus nostra samus yes there you go okay let's take another break, 01:25:53.690 --> 01:25:54.590 even though it was short. 01:25:54.890 --> 01:25:58.670 And when we come back, it'll be time for technology. 01:25:59.170 --> 01:25:59.830 Here we go. 01:27:43.030 --> 01:27:46.950 Okay. And it's time to continue with technology. 01:27:47.310 --> 01:27:52.070 And I said each one gets shorter than one before, but economy was really short. 01:27:52.250 --> 01:27:54.490 We're back up to a bit larger numbers here. 01:27:54.850 --> 01:27:59.190 So first up, Yvonne, this is your area of expertise, so you're going to need 01:27:59.190 --> 01:28:05.590 to look this up. We're talking about the percent of total sales in the U.S. 01:28:06.030 --> 01:28:11.270 of electric and hybrid 2024 versus 2025. 01:28:11.850 --> 01:28:12.290 It was up. 01:28:12.430 --> 01:28:13.090 Okay. 01:28:13.130 --> 01:28:16.870 I don't remember, but the numbers were significantly up. 01:28:17.730 --> 01:28:21.210 Significantly up. Because you'd basically said it would be plus or minus 1%, 01:28:21.210 --> 01:28:24.290 so basically flat. And I'd said it would be down. 01:28:24.690 --> 01:28:26.650 And now they were way up. 01:28:26.830 --> 01:28:28.170 So we're both wrong. 01:28:28.710 --> 01:28:33.790 Yeah. Yeah, they were way up. I mean, you pull up the chart to confirm, 01:28:33.950 --> 01:28:35.470 but yeah, they were way up. 01:28:35.770 --> 01:28:41.930 Remember, because the expiration of the incentives, there was a massive tailwind. 01:28:41.930 --> 01:28:43.090 Lots of people trying to get in under the line. 01:28:43.110 --> 01:28:46.250 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. 01:28:46.650 --> 01:28:52.210 Let me pull it up, but I know that I had looked it up recently because I knew this would come up. 01:28:52.690 --> 01:28:55.530 Well, we made a new prediction on it last week, so. 01:28:55.830 --> 01:29:02.750 Yes. Here we go. Let's see. Yeah, they were up 11.7%. 01:29:03.250 --> 01:29:08.030 Okay. I don't think it makes a difference for this, but was this pure electric 01:29:08.030 --> 01:29:10.610 only or electric plus hybrid or what? 01:29:10.730 --> 01:29:13.450 I was looking at pure electric, like, right now. 01:29:15.070 --> 01:29:22.130 Okay, next up was U.S. gas consumption, gasoline consumption in the U.S. 01:29:22.990 --> 01:29:29.490 You had said it would be basically flat, plus or minus 1%, 2025 versus 2024. I said it would be up. 01:29:30.150 --> 01:29:35.330 The best, I looked briefly for this, it looked like it was down more like 3%. 01:29:36.130 --> 01:29:39.750 And I was comparing same month to same month. 01:29:39.870 --> 01:29:43.970 I didn't have a full year number. so i was like comparing october to october 01:29:43.970 --> 01:29:45.890 or something because that's the most recent month i had. 01:29:45.890 --> 01:29:51.210 Do you have a different info well let's see let's let's let's try look let's, 01:29:54.850 --> 01:30:05.030 it the estimate that is from s&p global flat to slight increase it is like basically flat. 01:30:05.030 --> 01:30:07.690 Is it within one percent that's how you define. 01:30:07.690 --> 01:30:14.410 Yeah yeah yeah it was like 8.94 million barrels a day versus 8.95 million barrels a day. 01:30:14.410 --> 01:30:18.770 Okay so you you were right oh wait you said slightly up. 01:30:18.770 --> 01:30:20.910 It's flat to slight increase yeah. 01:30:20.910 --> 01:30:27.310 8.94 okay so we were both right because i said up and you said flat so but i 01:30:27.310 --> 01:30:31.430 i did find an october to october number that was like down for october or something 01:30:31.430 --> 01:30:34.030 like that but i'll go with your number there. 01:30:34.030 --> 01:30:37.270 There's there's a there's a you know they're they're, 01:30:39.190 --> 01:30:44.930 It's just, you know, it's about, it's about flattish. 01:30:45.370 --> 01:30:45.810 Okay. 01:30:45.950 --> 01:30:47.150 I mean, it's, yeah. 01:30:47.890 --> 01:30:48.130 Now. 01:30:48.390 --> 01:30:55.250 But flattish to little bits. And this is from S&P Global, basically, the one that I had in AAA. 01:30:56.070 --> 01:31:00.170 Okay. Excellent. Okay. Good. We were both right then. Next up, 01:31:00.310 --> 01:31:02.690 the next few questions are about Tesla specifically. 01:31:03.310 --> 01:31:08.930 You started out with a vague high level, and then we both got a little bit more specific. 01:31:09.190 --> 01:31:15.810 So the vague high level was you said Tesla will be doing worse in 2025 than 2024. 01:31:16.390 --> 01:31:21.050 I mean, in terms of metrics, but I'm specifying metrics. I guess I meant car 01:31:21.050 --> 01:31:23.110 sales. The answer is car sales. They're down. 01:31:23.690 --> 01:31:27.310 Okay. Then I will count you as right on that one. 01:31:27.610 --> 01:31:27.730 Yeah. 01:31:27.890 --> 01:31:33.190 Then you, then you did get more specific. You said Tesla revenue and profits would both be down. 01:31:33.570 --> 01:31:34.530 That's correct. 01:31:35.190 --> 01:31:39.410 Okay. Then I said Tesla's stock would be down, and I was wrong. 01:31:39.670 --> 01:31:40.810 Oh, God, you were wrong. 01:31:41.930 --> 01:31:45.410 Because, of course, those things shouldn't relate in any way, right? 01:31:45.550 --> 01:31:48.510 No. Like the financial performance versus stock performance. 01:31:48.670 --> 01:31:50.170 There's no reason those would be correlated. 01:31:50.170 --> 01:31:52.710 There's no reason those should be related. What are you talking about? 01:31:53.110 --> 01:31:56.710 What kind of sick person are you? Come on. No. 01:31:57.410 --> 01:32:04.670 Okay. You then predicted that Biden's clean energy incentives would not be reversed. 01:32:05.390 --> 01:32:06.930 Well, I was wrong on that one. 01:32:07.790 --> 01:32:12.710 You made the argument that a whole bunch of red states benefit from them a lot, 01:32:12.710 --> 01:32:15.210 so there'd be congressional resistance to any rollback. 01:32:15.250 --> 01:32:19.250 And actually, there has been congressional resistance from those states, 01:32:19.270 --> 01:32:22.070 but not enough to stop it from happening. 01:32:22.450 --> 01:32:25.310 And I expect that—here's the other thing that I expected. 01:32:25.730 --> 01:32:30.930 I mean, Elon Musk is benefiting greatly from these, but he decided to completely 01:32:30.930 --> 01:32:32.450 shoot himself on the foot on this. 01:32:32.870 --> 01:32:33.490 Mm-hmm. 01:32:34.860 --> 01:32:40.440 But it's one that baffles me to this day. I don't understand why. 01:32:41.240 --> 01:32:48.580 Okay, next up. Global carbon burned, we both agreed, would not go down this 01:32:48.580 --> 01:32:50.940 year. We were correct. It did not go down. 01:32:51.100 --> 01:32:53.640 It continues to increase on a global level. 01:32:54.020 --> 01:32:59.360 I further predicted that the global CO2 level, so not the amount burned, 01:32:59.540 --> 01:33:04.180 but the amount actually in the air would continue to go up. And yes, of course it did. 01:33:05.280 --> 01:33:14.540 We both agreed that the percentage of global energy use from non-carbon sources would increase. It did. 01:33:15.020 --> 01:33:15.500 It did. 01:33:16.420 --> 01:33:24.380 We both agreed that there would be an increase in the percentage of global power 01:33:24.380 --> 01:33:27.540 from nuclear power, specifically year over year. 01:33:27.540 --> 01:33:37.940 Now, I could not find 2025 data out yet, but 2024 was slightly up from 2023, 01:33:37.940 --> 01:33:40.000 so I was going to count us both right. 01:33:40.520 --> 01:33:43.840 Let's see if I can find anything. Let's see what we got. 01:33:46.980 --> 01:33:49.600 The World Nuclear Association. 01:33:50.300 --> 01:33:53.460 I think I may have been on their site earlier today as well. 01:33:53.620 --> 01:33:56.780 It says like a modest increase, like about 2%. 01:33:58.940 --> 01:34:03.880 Percent of global? Because I found a percent increase of an absolute number, not of a percentage. 01:34:04.180 --> 01:34:08.960 Global, absolute, yeah. Absolute production globally, a slight increase of 2%. 01:34:08.960 --> 01:34:12.120 Yeah, so, but we weren't talking about absolute, we were talking about a percentage 01:34:12.120 --> 01:34:14.780 of global. So, you'd have to do the math on that. 01:34:15.260 --> 01:34:18.000 I still gave us yes on both. 01:34:18.380 --> 01:34:19.140 Okay, all right. 01:34:20.220 --> 01:34:26.060 Because the hard number I could find on percentage was a year out of date, 01:34:26.060 --> 01:34:27.500 but it was still up slightly. 01:34:28.160 --> 01:34:33.560 And indicators like this for 2025 are like, okay, the absolute number was up. 01:34:33.960 --> 01:34:37.660 Whether or not the percentage is up depends on whether that increased faster 01:34:37.660 --> 01:34:41.460 or slower than the overall number, but I'll give it to us. 01:34:42.100 --> 01:34:42.200 Okay. 01:34:42.880 --> 01:34:44.400 Okay, next up, 01:34:45.510 --> 01:34:53.190 was whether there'd be a successful reuse of Starship or Super Heavy by SpaceX. 01:34:53.750 --> 01:34:54.690 Was there? 01:34:55.110 --> 01:35:01.350 Now, what I found was a reference that Super Heavy was reused in May, 01:35:01.710 --> 01:35:07.210 but it had, quote-unquote, a hard splashdown. 01:35:08.150 --> 01:35:09.430 So does it count as successful? 01:35:09.610 --> 01:35:12.310 No, no, that wasn't a successful reuse. 01:35:12.790 --> 01:35:16.290 Well, it successfully boosted whatever it was supposed to boost to orbit. 01:35:16.950 --> 01:35:19.230 Yeah, but— Or whatever it was supposed to do. Well, I'm sorry, 01:35:19.290 --> 01:35:21.750 but also the recovery is part of the damn thing. 01:35:21.850 --> 01:35:25.150 You're like saying, hey, I dropped the kid off at school. 01:35:25.330 --> 01:35:27.870 Hey, I successfully drove to school. I dropped the kid off at school. 01:35:27.950 --> 01:35:29.670 Yeah, but you came back with no car! 01:35:30.430 --> 01:35:32.350 Well, I successfully dropped the kid off. 01:35:33.450 --> 01:35:35.030 It was not a successful trip. 01:35:35.630 --> 01:35:40.890 Okay, now, and to be fair, I found the references to May. I could not verify 01:35:40.890 --> 01:35:42.950 whether they tried again after me. 01:35:43.490 --> 01:35:45.590 Do you want to see if you can find something real quick? 01:35:46.090 --> 01:35:49.510 No, no, we're, we're, you know, no, okay. 01:35:49.530 --> 01:35:53.630 No successful reuse. I'm sure if we got that wrong, Bruce will yell at us. 01:35:53.930 --> 01:35:55.670 Yes, we'll get a yell. We'll get a courage. 01:35:55.690 --> 01:35:59.130 And he will probably tell us that it was a successful reuse because it did launch 01:35:59.130 --> 01:36:00.350 the thing it was supposed to launch. 01:36:00.530 --> 01:36:04.830 I don't agree to successful reuse. I mean, it doesn't include like, 01:36:05.070 --> 01:36:06.870 you know, completing the damn. 01:36:06.870 --> 01:36:11.150 I mean, it didn't blow up on the pad. They just, like, it had a hard landing. 01:36:11.410 --> 01:36:12.810 Hey, I didn't die! 01:36:13.870 --> 01:36:15.590 Don't, yeah, yeah, okay. 01:36:16.170 --> 01:36:16.690 Fine. 01:36:18.450 --> 01:36:20.170 We both agreed no major. 01:36:20.170 --> 01:36:22.050 My success metric is a little bit higher. 01:36:23.840 --> 01:36:29.340 Okay, we both agreed no major new human spaceflight developments in 2025. 01:36:30.660 --> 01:36:32.140 We didn't have any, right? Or did we? 01:36:32.280 --> 01:36:33.440 I think we were right. 01:36:33.740 --> 01:36:34.180 Okay. 01:36:34.880 --> 01:36:39.040 You predicted no major self-driving developments in 2025. 01:36:39.560 --> 01:36:42.640 We didn't have any. Basically status quo. 01:36:42.960 --> 01:36:48.180 So I'll count you as right on that. But you specifically also called out they 01:36:48.180 --> 01:36:51.140 still can't reliably do unproductive left turns. 01:36:51.140 --> 01:36:57.600 Now, I saw some articles from late in the year saying there specifically had 01:36:57.600 --> 01:37:03.560 been significant improvements in Tesla full self-driving doing unpredicted left 01:37:03.560 --> 01:37:05.120 turns, unproductive left turns. 01:37:05.160 --> 01:37:10.700 Yeah, but not unpredicted. Once again, this is like, you know, yeah, it improved. 01:37:10.900 --> 01:37:14.920 Yeah, but that's like same shit as we've had. Significant breakthrough. Okay. 01:37:15.420 --> 01:37:17.800 Yeah, it's been improving, but it's not there yet. 01:37:17.800 --> 01:37:23.460 Well, no, this prediction was they still can't reliably do unprotected left turns. 01:37:23.820 --> 01:37:26.420 Can they reliably do unprotected left turns now? 01:37:27.080 --> 01:37:32.460 Okay. I, I, I, I, you know what? I don't know if that's the case. 01:37:33.120 --> 01:37:35.380 Okay. Check it. Ugh. 01:37:36.820 --> 01:37:38.080 Ugh. All right. 01:37:39.320 --> 01:37:41.580 The answer is no. 01:37:42.040 --> 01:37:44.240 No, they still can't do them? 01:37:44.500 --> 01:37:47.100 No, they're not reliably in all conditions. 01:37:47.700 --> 01:37:50.920 Okay, so I'm going to count you as correct. 01:37:50.920 --> 01:37:54.680 So it's improved, but it still can't do it reliably in all conditions. 01:37:55.100 --> 01:37:58.160 Okay, next up, social media. 01:37:58.880 --> 01:38:03.700 You made a general prediction, and then I was more specific. 01:38:03.700 --> 01:38:07.140 your prediction was that x would 01:38:07.140 --> 01:38:10.460 still be bigger than the other competitor social 01:38:10.460 --> 01:38:13.500 media platforms now i broke 01:38:13.500 --> 01:38:17.300 it down and made separate predictions for threads mastodon and blue sky but 01:38:17.300 --> 01:38:23.300 you just made a general one against the competition so how would you because 01:38:23.300 --> 01:38:29.960 we talked last week towards the end of the year yeah threads exceeded x on monthly 01:38:29.960 --> 01:38:33.400 active users so does that mean you are wrong on this one? 01:38:33.820 --> 01:38:37.880 I may be. Let me see. All right, let's see. 01:38:39.190 --> 01:38:43.870 I would say because it's not a trend. It was only like one month that X was 01:38:43.870 --> 01:38:45.750 still bigger because it was only one month. 01:38:46.250 --> 01:38:52.630 You know, we did have a month where that metric did exceed, but I don't know if reliably they are. 01:38:53.530 --> 01:38:55.450 So you want to count yourself as right. 01:38:56.090 --> 01:38:56.570 Yeah. 01:38:56.870 --> 01:38:57.970 X is still bigger. Okay. 01:38:58.210 --> 01:38:58.350 Yeah. 01:38:58.630 --> 01:39:03.610 Well, in that case, I will make a clean sleep on the clean sleep. 01:39:04.050 --> 01:39:05.610 Clean sleep sounds good. 01:39:05.870 --> 01:39:07.290 That sounds nice. 01:39:08.310 --> 01:39:12.710 Okay, no, I separately said X is bigger than Threads, X is bigger than Mastodon, 01:39:12.810 --> 01:39:15.170 X is bigger than Blue Sky, so I should say yes on all three. 01:39:15.290 --> 01:39:15.450 Yes. 01:39:15.450 --> 01:39:22.430 I got all three right. I did, however, say X will continue to decline, and that was also true. 01:39:22.630 --> 01:39:25.450 That's correct, yes. It did decline, but it didn't, yeah. 01:39:26.130 --> 01:39:31.930 Okay. And this all hinges on us saying that, yes, Threads did have a good month, 01:39:31.970 --> 01:39:34.570 but we're not quite ready to say that it's bigger than X. 01:39:35.030 --> 01:39:35.790 Correct, yes. 01:39:36.370 --> 01:39:40.030 Okay. Okay. then tick tock we 01:39:40.030 --> 01:39:46.730 both agreed that there would be no tick tock ban at any point in 2025 we. 01:39:46.730 --> 01:39:47.970 Were definitely right on that one. 01:39:47.970 --> 01:39:54.150 No we were not they were shut down for 24 hours on january 19th right. 01:39:54.150 --> 01:39:57.310 They were shut down for 24 hours i forgot about that, 01:39:59.430 --> 01:40:00.710 huh yeah. 01:40:00.710 --> 01:40:06.950 And then uh so we were both wrong on that one i specifically had predicted that 01:40:06.950 --> 01:40:12.270 scotus would be the ones to rescue tiktok they were not it. 01:40:12.270 --> 01:40:13.090 Was donald trump. 01:40:13.090 --> 01:40:19.490 It was donald j trump and in fact when tiktok turned themselves back on they 01:40:19.490 --> 01:40:23.450 had a message thank you donald j trump So, 01:40:24.070 --> 01:40:28.110 which, which by the way, happened before he was officially inaugurated. 01:40:28.310 --> 01:40:32.590 He basically promised he was not going to do anything about this ban and there 01:40:32.590 --> 01:40:36.290 and them and Apple and Google and everybody else were like, oh, 01:40:36.450 --> 01:40:38.690 okay, then we'll, we'll turn you back on. 01:40:40.140 --> 01:40:44.920 We'll believe you. Okay, I did have a conditional one, though, 01:40:45.020 --> 01:40:48.740 which said if it is banned, it will come back. So I'm counting myself right for that one. 01:40:49.120 --> 01:40:50.840 Well, yeah, that's right. I mean, yeah. 01:40:51.740 --> 01:40:57.200 Okay, we both agreed there would be no other major social media shutdowns. 01:40:57.560 --> 01:40:58.900 I think we were right on that one. 01:40:58.940 --> 01:40:59.740 I think that's right. 01:41:01.920 --> 01:41:10.020 Okay, we both agreed. And in fact, you made a recommendation based on this prediction. 01:41:11.120 --> 01:41:19.440 You said that Donald J. Trump, the stock, DJT stock, would be up year over year, 01:41:19.440 --> 01:41:25.380 and you recommended that this is the smart play for investment during the Trump administration. 01:41:26.520 --> 01:41:30.220 How did DJT stock do over the course of the year, Yvonne? 01:41:30.240 --> 01:41:36.020 You pulled up the chart. I'm 90, 90, 90. I was wrong. 01:41:36.260 --> 01:41:40.040 I haven't even pulled up the chart. I know I was wrong. And it, 01:41:40.720 --> 01:41:44.980 let's see, during the year, holy fuck, 01:41:47.430 --> 01:41:58.990 So in, let's see, pull up one year, on January, the stock peaked at $42.9 a 01:41:58.990 --> 01:42:02.230 share on January 13th, right before the inauguration. 01:42:02.770 --> 01:42:10.530 Right now, it's at 13.7. So down like 75%. 01:42:10.530 --> 01:42:13.450 Did I make a mistake putting my entire life savings in this, Yvonne? 01:42:13.670 --> 01:42:15.670 Yeah, that was probably a bad idea. 01:42:15.930 --> 01:42:19.670 Oh, man. Okay, we were both wrong. 01:42:20.650 --> 01:42:26.030 Then we talked about Truth Social as a social media site, and we talked about 01:42:26.030 --> 01:42:30.450 it for a couple minutes, but the summary was that it remains just a cesspool 01:42:30.450 --> 01:42:32.190 for MAGA and no one else uses it. 01:42:32.450 --> 01:42:35.570 Basically, that's what it still is. Nothing's changed. 01:42:36.250 --> 01:42:45.810 I mean, Truth Social should be renamed the Trump Official Communications Authority. 01:42:47.480 --> 01:42:59.500 It's where he gets to do his 200 truth posts when he goes and does 200 of these 01:42:59.500 --> 01:43:02.680 at 3 in the morning when he can't sleep. That's what it's for. 01:43:04.620 --> 01:43:12.160 Okay, next up. We both agreed, and I counted this as one prediction, 01:43:13.020 --> 01:43:18.880 but we were talking about whether or not x would introduce an email app or some 01:43:18.880 --> 01:43:23.140 sort of cash app we both agreed they would not did they haven't. 01:43:23.140 --> 01:43:25.120 Introduced shit as far as i know. 01:43:25.660 --> 01:43:26.360 Okay they. 01:43:26.360 --> 01:43:29.940 Even lost their ceo i don't even know who's in charge of the damn company anymore. 01:43:29.940 --> 01:43:37.160 Wait that that lady's gone yeah oh yeah exactly it. 01:43:37.160 --> 01:43:39.180 Was that yeah she's gone i don't even. 01:43:39.180 --> 01:43:39.560 Know who's. 01:43:39.560 --> 01:43:40.700 In charging a company anymore. 01:43:40.700 --> 01:43:44.400 Okay well uh let me see who. 01:43:44.400 --> 01:43:51.060 Replaced uh at uh x. 01:43:51.060 --> 01:43:58.660 Oh by the way last week we had talked about whether or not the the tiktok takeover 01:43:58.660 --> 01:44:03.620 was complete and you said yes it was it just happened i saw somewhere else that 01:44:03.620 --> 01:44:08.100 it's actually later this month oh okay like like the 28th or something. 01:44:08.580 --> 01:44:11.920 Okay. I guess that what they announced was formally that they announced a specific 01:44:11.920 --> 01:44:13.600 date it was closing. Okay. All right. 01:44:14.180 --> 01:44:18.620 All right. It apparently has not actually closed yet. It will later this, 01:44:18.740 --> 01:44:20.900 later this month. I forget the exact date. 01:44:21.420 --> 01:44:28.180 Okay. Linda Iaccarino left her role in July, 2025, and Elon did not publicly 01:44:28.180 --> 01:44:32.480 announce a successor for the role. So there's no boss. 01:44:33.000 --> 01:44:34.700 Well, presumably it's him. 01:44:36.170 --> 01:44:44.070 I think, remember how they kind of merged XAI and X? 01:44:44.590 --> 01:44:45.090 Right. 01:44:45.170 --> 01:44:49.750 I think if I remember that the guy that was running XAI and I kind of has like 01:44:49.750 --> 01:44:53.270 as a responsibility of X. 01:44:54.030 --> 01:44:55.330 Grok's just running everything. 01:44:55.830 --> 01:44:56.330 Right. 01:44:56.490 --> 01:44:57.210 Grok's in charge. 01:44:57.990 --> 01:44:59.250 So everything should be fine. 01:45:00.230 --> 01:45:03.670 Okay. I did have a conditional here that if they did launch something, 01:45:03.670 --> 01:45:07.690 it would not be a success and nobody would use it. But it was a conditional, so it doesn't count. 01:45:07.850 --> 01:45:08.450 It doesn't count. 01:45:09.390 --> 01:45:16.130 Okay. Then we both agreed that Apple would not launch glucose monitoring on the watches. 01:45:16.670 --> 01:45:18.670 We were correct, as far as I know. 01:45:18.710 --> 01:45:24.950 You were correct. We both agreed that the AI bubble would not pop in 2025. 01:45:25.590 --> 01:45:26.830 That's correct. I believe we were correct. 01:45:27.210 --> 01:45:27.530 Yeah. 01:45:27.790 --> 01:45:32.290 If anything, things have still accelerated over the course of 2025. Yeah. 01:45:33.180 --> 01:45:37.840 We both agreed, however, that there would not be any AGI in 2025, 01:45:38.680 --> 01:45:43.480 you know, artificial general intelligence. I think we were right. 01:45:43.800 --> 01:45:44.140 Yeah. 01:45:45.100 --> 01:45:49.640 Now, this one's debatable because we said one thing on last week's show, 01:45:49.760 --> 01:45:51.640 but we can argue it again now. 01:45:52.880 --> 01:46:00.040 We disagreed on whether or not there would be a major incident blamed on AI 01:46:00.040 --> 01:46:03.640 this year. And we debated a little bit on what would count. 01:46:03.920 --> 01:46:08.460 I said it would be an issue with definable harm that we would talk about. 01:46:08.780 --> 01:46:13.980 We said that it wasn't enough that people were committing suicide because they 01:46:13.980 --> 01:46:16.680 were talking to the AIs because people committed suicide anyway. 01:46:16.980 --> 01:46:21.840 We said it wasn't enough that Teslas were running over people in the streets 01:46:21.840 --> 01:46:24.220 because people run over people in the streets anyway. 01:46:25.220 --> 01:46:28.240 So the question is, what counts? Now, last week on the show, 01:46:29.000 --> 01:46:35.340 we said that the fact that an AI apparently came up with those initial tariffs 01:46:35.340 --> 01:46:39.640 levels counted for this. Do we want to count it again today? 01:46:39.940 --> 01:46:40.780 Yes, I agree. 01:46:41.320 --> 01:46:44.380 Okay, so you were wrong. I was right because you said there would be no major 01:46:44.380 --> 01:46:45.760 incident and I said there would be. 01:46:46.460 --> 01:46:49.600 Yeah. No, no, no. It definitely counts as a major incident. Yeah. 01:46:50.040 --> 01:46:57.640 But were the tariffs really blamed on the AI? Or were they blamed on Donald Trump? 01:46:58.200 --> 01:47:02.740 No, they went... Listen, Donald Trump said, give me reciprocal tariffs. 01:47:02.960 --> 01:47:07.240 And they went, they used the AI to calculate them, and then we created a fucking... 01:47:08.680 --> 01:47:15.840 international massive incident based on calculations done by an AI agent that 01:47:15.840 --> 01:47:17.340 were pulled out of its ass. 01:47:17.660 --> 01:47:21.860 Okay. Okay. Guess what? We're done with technology. 01:47:22.140 --> 01:47:22.760 Okay. 01:47:23.480 --> 01:47:28.840 I made 24 predictions of which 17 were correct. 01:47:29.120 --> 01:47:33.160 That's 70.8%. You 01:47:33.160 --> 01:47:36.220 made 22 predictions of which 15 were. 01:47:36.220 --> 01:47:39.880 Correct that's 68.2 percent you're 01:47:39.880 --> 01:47:44.380 still yet another category i've beat you yeah consistently 01:47:44.380 --> 01:47:51.060 beating me our combined number 46 predictions 32 right that's 69.6 percent and 01:47:51.060 --> 01:48:00.880 again comparing to 2024 we had 65.6 percent so up again up again up in every category so far, 01:48:01.820 --> 01:48:05.440 And we've only got one category left. 01:48:06.120 --> 01:48:07.180 Dun, dun, dun. 01:48:08.860 --> 01:48:14.540 Okay. So that last category is hodgepodge, but we're going to take a break first. 01:48:15.700 --> 01:48:18.320 And just so you guys all know the way it's going to work, we're going to do 01:48:18.320 --> 01:48:21.180 the hodgepodge category, then we'll take one final break, then we'll come back 01:48:21.180 --> 01:48:23.420 with overall numbers for the whole year, and then we'll be done. 01:48:25.600 --> 01:48:26.680 Okay, here we go. 01:49:39.820 --> 01:49:41.400 No blue thing. 01:50:23.180 --> 01:50:24.660 You usually find music. 01:50:28.260 --> 01:50:35.400 Okay, so we are back. The first item is one to debate whether it should count at all or not. 01:50:36.780 --> 01:50:42.180 So we made a prediction about whether or not Jimmy Carter would survive 2025. 01:50:43.140 --> 01:50:50.580 He, of course, died essentially right after we recorded the prediction show, but still in 2024. 01:50:51.840 --> 01:50:57.840 So we said he would not survive 2025. Is this question moot and doesn't count at all? 01:50:58.020 --> 01:51:02.720 I think it's moot and doesn't count at all. I mean, we didn't enter 2025 alive. 01:51:03.060 --> 01:51:08.000 Okay. Because you have your Fidel prediction, and he's still dead. 01:51:08.140 --> 01:51:11.040 He's still dead. Like, Jimmy Carter's still dead. 01:51:11.480 --> 01:51:14.380 Okay, if we use Fidel as a threshold. 01:51:14.380 --> 01:51:20.080 What we said was, will not survive. Which is different than you predicting Fidel is still dead. 01:51:20.680 --> 01:51:25.920 I mean... Hmm. Okay. Damn. Damn. 01:51:27.370 --> 01:51:30.310 I don't know. What do you think? What are your thoughts? 01:51:31.170 --> 01:51:34.570 I think it should probably be moot. Okay. 01:51:34.950 --> 01:51:39.910 Because surviving the year implies that at some point in the year, he was still alive. 01:51:39.910 --> 01:51:41.490 He was alive. Right. 01:51:42.030 --> 01:51:51.250 Now, if we had just said, Jimmy Carter will still be alive at the end of 2025, I would count that. 01:51:52.550 --> 01:51:53.930 Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:51:53.950 --> 01:51:55.410 Or that he was still dead. 01:51:55.670 --> 01:51:56.950 Yeah, but we said, yeah. 01:51:57.370 --> 01:52:02.350 We said he will not survive. We didn't say he will be dead. 01:52:02.610 --> 01:52:03.090 Right. 01:52:03.290 --> 01:52:08.450 There's a difference. So I'm just taking this off. This question does not count. 01:52:08.730 --> 01:52:09.250 Okay. 01:52:09.350 --> 01:52:12.410 We both agreed that he'd be dead, though. 01:52:12.790 --> 01:52:13.250 Okay. 01:52:13.610 --> 01:52:17.330 But he started the year dead, so we'll not count this. 01:52:17.850 --> 01:52:24.010 Okay, next up, we both agreed that the polio vaccine would not lose approval for the U.S. 01:52:24.170 --> 01:52:27.850 because of RFK Jr. He did not pull the approval. 01:52:28.910 --> 01:52:31.930 He's done all kinds of things to mess with vaccine schedules, 01:52:32.110 --> 01:52:33.690 but he did not actually pull the approval. 01:52:34.070 --> 01:52:39.590 So we were both right. Now, this next one was a question from our listener, 01:52:40.010 --> 01:52:48.250 Ed, about a very specific thing about whether or not dengue fever would be eliminated 01:52:48.250 --> 01:52:56.010 for a certain number of square mile area due to a specific technique regarding using, 01:52:56.010 --> 01:52:58.430 like, treated mosquitoes or something. 01:52:58.810 --> 01:53:02.770 Yeah, they've been doing that, like, experimenting with that, yes. 01:53:02.770 --> 01:53:07.490 Yeah. Now, I could not find specific information about this on 2025. 01:53:08.150 --> 01:53:12.730 I haven't seen, I haven't heard that anybody used that anywhere. 01:53:13.550 --> 01:53:19.770 Like, I looked for this and I found some general information about dengue fever 01:53:19.770 --> 01:53:24.370 trends, but nothing specifically about trials with this technique. 01:53:24.370 --> 01:53:25.770 Now, I could have missed it. 01:53:27.160 --> 01:53:32.360 We both predicted that they would not only try it, but be successful at the 01:53:32.360 --> 01:53:34.440 trials. So I'm ready to call ourselves wrong. 01:53:35.040 --> 01:53:44.520 I'm searching to see. According to ABC, there was a plan in Australia to release 01:53:44.520 --> 01:53:47.080 the mosquitoes aimed at reducing dengue risk. 01:53:47.560 --> 01:53:52.420 But it was paused and withdrawn after public backlash and regulatory reviews. 01:53:54.440 --> 01:53:59.000 So there was an attempt to do it. Yeah, there was an attempt to do it, 01:53:59.300 --> 01:54:02.180 but apparently it did not go through. 01:54:03.100 --> 01:54:11.320 Okay, next question was whether or not bird flu would make the jump to human-to-human transmission. 01:54:11.780 --> 01:54:15.000 We both said it would. 01:54:15.480 --> 01:54:17.320 I do not believe that happened. 01:54:17.920 --> 01:54:22.400 There have been bird-to-human transmission, but I don't think there's been human-to-human. 01:54:22.940 --> 01:54:26.540 Oh, yeah, no, there hasn't been human-to-human, yeah, that's correct. 01:54:26.540 --> 01:54:27.740 So we were both wrong. 01:54:28.040 --> 01:54:28.360 Yeah. 01:54:29.400 --> 01:54:33.300 I also predicted there would be a bird flu epidemic, but not a pandemic. 01:54:33.300 --> 01:54:37.280 I don't think there was either. No, there wasn't. There were a handful of cases, but not a pandemic. 01:54:37.440 --> 01:54:38.480 No, we hadn't either. No. 01:54:38.980 --> 01:54:45.000 Okay. Okay, next up was the Super Bowl. First of all, Yvonne, who won? Oh, my God. 01:54:45.840 --> 01:54:46.320 Philadelphia. 01:54:47.440 --> 01:54:49.980 Okay. Do you remember who you said would win? 01:54:50.140 --> 01:54:51.840 I probably said Kansas City. 01:54:52.180 --> 01:54:54.920 You did. Do you remember who I said would win? 01:54:55.720 --> 01:54:56.200 No. 01:54:56.540 --> 01:54:59.340 The bears bills oh the buffalo bills. 01:54:59.340 --> 01:55:01.200 Okay all right we're both wrong there you go. 01:55:01.200 --> 01:55:10.240 Okay so good job us um okay next up are a couple questions that alex had added 01:55:10.240 --> 01:55:17.020 first up i predicted that abel fnaf web edition would not be canceled i was 01:55:17.020 --> 01:55:19.820 correct it was not canceled okay, 01:55:21.510 --> 01:55:25.510 I predicted that Abelsmay, that's me, would not die. 01:55:26.030 --> 01:55:29.270 Yeah, I think we're right on that one. Yes. 01:55:29.630 --> 01:55:33.010 Unless you're a very good clone. I have something to reveal. 01:55:34.690 --> 01:55:39.090 I am, in fact, a zombie. I have been dead for years. 01:55:39.410 --> 01:55:43.210 Well, you're doing great. But it didn't... Wait, but it's been for years. 01:55:43.210 --> 01:55:46.290 So that means you didn't die in 2025. 01:55:47.090 --> 01:55:48.750 You're right. That's right. I died earlier. 01:55:49.110 --> 01:55:49.490 Yikes. 01:55:50.210 --> 01:55:55.270 Okay. Well, anyway, Abel Smae did not die. You also agreed that Abel Smae would 01:55:55.270 --> 01:55:56.550 not die. Thank you, Yvonne. 01:55:56.870 --> 01:55:57.570 You're welcome. 01:55:58.870 --> 01:56:05.410 We were both correct. Then a second Abel FNAF web version. 01:56:05.630 --> 01:56:08.970 Abel FNAF web version will not be canceled for real. 01:56:09.350 --> 01:56:13.090 I was right on that one as well. It is not canceled. 01:56:13.570 --> 01:56:17.830 However, I predicted that Abel FNAF web edition would be released, 01:56:18.430 --> 01:56:20.890 and it has not been. so I was wrong on that one. 01:56:21.650 --> 01:56:21.850 Okay. 01:56:22.510 --> 01:56:27.010 Next, we have a couple of traditional Yvonne predictions. You predicted that 01:56:27.010 --> 01:56:30.470 Fidel Castro would stay dead. Did he stay dead? 01:56:30.850 --> 01:56:31.550 Yes. 01:56:32.270 --> 01:56:35.330 Okay. Next, you predicted pain. 01:56:36.550 --> 01:56:41.870 I mean, I think that I've never been more accurate. 01:56:42.390 --> 01:56:48.190 There you go. Next up, U.S. hurricane landfalls. 01:56:49.150 --> 01:56:53.110 I predicted three, you predicted six. How many were there, Yvonne? 01:56:53.490 --> 01:56:53.970 Zero. 01:56:54.550 --> 01:56:56.710 There were zero. We were both wrong. 01:56:58.790 --> 01:57:03.510 Next, we both agreed that 2025 would be the hottest year ever. 01:57:04.390 --> 01:57:06.050 Was it? Of course it was. 01:57:06.410 --> 01:57:10.270 No, it was not. It looks, the numbers are still preliminary, 01:57:10.270 --> 01:57:12.370 but it looks like it's going to come in second or third. 01:57:13.050 --> 01:57:15.250 Oh, wow. Okay. 01:57:15.810 --> 01:57:18.110 So we were both wrong on that one. 01:57:19.050 --> 01:57:19.390 Okay. 01:57:19.990 --> 01:57:25.650 You know, every year it's in, like, the top three, basically. 01:57:26.310 --> 01:57:30.570 But, well, I'm glad we're wrong. 01:57:30.910 --> 01:57:37.210 I'm glad we're wrong, too. But, yeah, and so, again, still preliminary. Could be two. 01:57:37.350 --> 01:57:39.550 Could be three. But definitely not one. 01:57:40.250 --> 01:57:40.490 Okay. 01:57:40.690 --> 01:57:48.330 Okay. We both predicted the best movie Oscar. You said Conclave. I said Wicked. 01:57:49.210 --> 01:57:50.810 Do you know what it actually was? 01:57:51.050 --> 01:57:52.630 I have no idea. Who won? 01:57:53.290 --> 01:57:53.770 Onora. 01:57:54.690 --> 01:57:58.010 Yeah, whatever. Like, Jesus, like we would have no idea. Fuck. 01:57:59.230 --> 01:58:07.270 Yeah, no, we were both wrong. Next was a prediction of where the average number of weekly, 01:58:07.510 --> 01:58:12.610 the trend line, where the trend line would be for curmudgeons corner seven day 01:58:12.610 --> 01:58:14.650 downloads at the end of the year. 01:58:14.650 --> 01:58:20.390 We both predicted it would be between 40 and 60, which is where it normally 01:58:20.390 --> 01:58:23.230 is almost all of the time. 01:58:23.530 --> 01:58:24.210 And? 01:58:24.470 --> 01:58:25.930 It was less than that. 01:58:26.530 --> 01:58:27.330 It was less? 01:58:27.830 --> 01:58:33.830 Over the last few weeks, it had been in that range most of the year. 01:58:34.170 --> 01:58:37.930 It has dropped below that in the last few weeks. 01:58:38.090 --> 01:58:45.070 I blame it for our non-standard publication schedule. we've had the last few 01:58:45.070 --> 01:58:50.970 weeks where we've released on all kinds of weird days instead of sort of like when we usually do. 01:58:51.190 --> 01:58:56.370 So our numbers have gone down. Like, just as an example, we put two episodes 01:58:56.370 --> 01:58:58.130 out only like three days apart. 01:58:59.190 --> 01:59:04.670 And so even if somebody downloaded both of those, they count once for that period 01:59:04.670 --> 01:59:06.590 of time, for that seven-day period. 01:59:07.210 --> 01:59:12.090 And then we've gone a couple times waiting longer than seven days. 01:59:12.170 --> 01:59:13.650 And now this time we're going to be shorter. 01:59:14.410 --> 01:59:17.510 Anyway, it's been a weird schedule and it's been holidays. 01:59:17.750 --> 01:59:20.610 I mean, we always have holidays and it doesn't usually dip this far, 01:59:20.790 --> 01:59:25.610 but it dipped pretty low because of our—and again, I'm blaming our weird schedule. 01:59:25.790 --> 01:59:27.870 It could be something else. People could just hate us now. 01:59:28.790 --> 01:59:35.550 Although it has started to pop back up in the last few days so anyway we were both wrong on that one, 01:59:36.450 --> 01:59:40.010 i predicted you made no prediction on this where the 01:59:40.010 --> 01:59:42.770 trend line for wiki of the day downloads would 01:59:42.770 --> 01:59:46.150 be combining all three of the wiki of the day podcasts i predicted 01:59:46.150 --> 01:59:49.730 it would be between 125 and 175 per 01:59:49.730 --> 01:59:52.730 seven day period at the end of the year i was wrong 01:59:52.730 --> 01:59:55.710 it's up at 240 so let's go 01:59:55.710 --> 01:59:58.890 look at that so and once 01:59:58.890 --> 02:00:02.350 again a lot more people apparently download 02:00:02.350 --> 02:00:05.770 my completely automated podcast that like 02:00:05.770 --> 02:00:08.530 i put no effort into on a daily 02:00:08.530 --> 02:00:11.610 basis than this one that i spend many hours on but 02:00:11.610 --> 02:00:17.230 you know whatever well it's a much simpler shorter download simpler shorter 02:00:17.230 --> 02:00:21.990 three minutes it's less of an investment than like a multi-hour current events 02:00:21.990 --> 02:00:29.590 podcast you know yeah so so anyway okay we're We split on whether Taylor Swift 02:00:29.590 --> 02:00:31.570 and Travis Kelsey would get engaged. 02:00:32.390 --> 02:00:36.690 What did you say? Wait, they did. So what did you say? 02:00:36.690 --> 02:00:39.170 You said they would not. I said they would. 02:00:39.470 --> 02:00:41.730 So you were wrong and I was right. Ha ha ha! 02:00:42.800 --> 02:00:47.420 Okay, next up, and I previewed this earlier, because earlier in the show, 02:00:47.440 --> 02:00:50.560 in the politics section, you said Trump would not die. 02:00:50.740 --> 02:00:53.180 Here in Hodgepodge, you say Trump will die. 02:00:55.180 --> 02:00:58.120 So last time you were right, this time you were wrong. 02:00:58.160 --> 02:01:00.860 So I basically just canceled myself out. Great. 02:01:01.100 --> 02:01:02.740 You canceled yourself out. So 02:01:02.740 --> 02:01:06.700 you were wrong this time. You also predicted that King Charles would die. 02:01:07.380 --> 02:01:09.120 Well, King Charles is not dead. 02:01:09.460 --> 02:01:10.980 King Charles is not dead. 02:01:10.980 --> 02:01:16.940 I'm like, I mean, I'm not helping any, you know, this is, you know, 02:01:17.340 --> 02:01:22.960 me predicting people will die is a surefire way for them to live longer. 02:01:24.260 --> 02:01:31.880 So now on last week's show, I predicted that Dick Van Dyke will die in 2026. 02:01:32.480 --> 02:01:37.900 But last year, I predicted he would live through 2025. And I was right. 02:01:38.380 --> 02:01:39.380 Ah, there you go. 02:01:40.060 --> 02:01:45.000 However, I predicted that David Attenborough and Alan Greenspan would die, 02:01:45.020 --> 02:01:47.820 and they did not. So I got those two wrong. 02:01:51.280 --> 02:01:56.000 You—those were the old people, like, that were, you know—but then you—both of 02:01:56.000 --> 02:01:59.180 us predicted one younger person who would die this year. 02:01:59.380 --> 02:02:01.780 You predicted Jared Kushner would die. 02:02:02.320 --> 02:02:02.660 Yeah. 02:02:04.700 --> 02:02:10.880 Like I said, this doesn't help me, you know, yeah, no, Cusher's not dead. 02:02:11.880 --> 02:02:14.340 I predicted Matt Gaetz would die. 02:02:14.780 --> 02:02:16.640 Well, neither of them are dead. 02:02:17.620 --> 02:02:22.160 No, which is a shame because I didn't get to test my conditional, 02:02:22.440 --> 02:02:27.440 which was if Matt Gaetz did die, he would die high on cocaine in the arms of a hooker. 02:02:28.480 --> 02:02:33.640 That would have been quite a, you know, quite a win for you. 02:02:33.640 --> 02:02:35.480 Yes, and everybody else. 02:02:35.960 --> 02:02:40.000 Okay. We are now at the end of the hodgepodge section. 02:02:42.260 --> 02:02:46.460 Can you tell, just by having gone through that, how well or not we did? 02:02:46.660 --> 02:02:50.300 I don't think we did do well. I don't think we did well in the hodgepodge. 02:02:50.460 --> 02:02:53.120 I think we really screwed ourselves in the hodgepodge. 02:02:54.180 --> 02:02:58.280 I made 20 predictions, of which I got six. 02:03:00.320 --> 02:03:09.660 That is 30%. You made 14 predictions, of which you got 4 correct. 02:03:09.920 --> 02:03:10.860 Oh, God. 02:03:11.300 --> 02:03:14.220 That is 28.6%. 02:03:14.220 --> 02:03:15.680 How hard? 02:03:16.300 --> 02:03:21.260 So collectively, that's 34 predictions, of which we got 10 correct. 02:03:21.380 --> 02:03:25.120 That is 29.4% in the Hodgepodge. 02:03:25.140 --> 02:03:26.880 How did we do versus last year? 02:03:26.880 --> 02:03:33.560 Well, last year at Hodgepodge, we got 41.9%. Jesus Christ. 02:03:34.760 --> 02:03:42.400 Every other category we did better this year, Hodgepodge, we were already low 02:03:42.400 --> 02:03:44.780 last year, and we fell even further through the floor. 02:03:46.560 --> 02:03:52.440 So, yeah. So that's that. And that's the end of the section. 02:03:53.080 --> 02:03:57.280 so we're going to take one more quick break and then we'll come back with the 02:03:57.280 --> 02:04:04.300 totals for everything together and then we'll say goodbye so here we go. 02:04:54.690 --> 02:04:59.370 Okay, we are back. First off, I just want to mention that even though we did 02:04:59.370 --> 02:05:06.710 so much worse on HodgePodge this time around than last year, I still beat you. 02:05:07.610 --> 02:05:08.370 Yes, you did. 02:05:09.010 --> 02:05:13.710 So I did better than you in all five categories this year. 02:05:13.790 --> 02:05:16.150 You did a clean sweep on all the categories. 02:05:16.930 --> 02:05:25.030 I did. Yeah, because I'm just that good. Okay, overall, I made 143 predictions, 02:05:25.030 --> 02:05:27.850 of which 99 were correct. 02:05:28.090 --> 02:05:33.890 Just one short of that 100 mark, but that's 69.2%. 02:05:34.870 --> 02:05:41.590 You made 123 predictions, of which you got 80 correct. That is 65%. 02:05:41.590 --> 02:05:43.030 Okay, okay. 02:05:43.030 --> 02:05:47.890 So our overall number, 266 predictions, 02:05:48.930 --> 02:05:58.690 179 correct, that's 67.29%, compared to 52.40 last year. 02:05:58.870 --> 02:06:04.350 So significantly better than last year, just comparing to... 02:06:05.860 --> 02:06:12.820 Years going back even further. I'm just searching back. 2020. 02:06:14.540 --> 02:06:21.880 Whoa, this is good. This is good. 2018. 2017. 02:06:23.720 --> 02:06:28.020 Oh. I only have records in this spreadsheet going back to. 02:06:28.320 --> 02:06:35.820 Okay, here we go. This is the best we've done since 2016 when we got 73%. 02:06:36.420 --> 02:06:38.300 Damn, there you go. 02:06:38.640 --> 02:06:46.800 So it may have not seemed great, but we actually did better with our 2025 predictions 02:06:46.800 --> 02:06:53.540 than 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, or 2017. 02:06:53.960 --> 02:06:57.280 Damn. Have to go back all the way to 2016 to get better. 02:06:58.020 --> 02:07:01.120 So we did pretty good in 2016, 73%. 02:07:01.120 --> 02:07:04.140 You know, I noticed there's a weird thing. 02:07:04.500 --> 02:07:05.060 Yeah. 02:07:05.560 --> 02:07:09.540 I mean, wait, 2016 was the year. 02:07:09.640 --> 02:07:10.440 No, that was the year. 02:07:10.740 --> 02:07:11.980 It was the election year. 02:07:12.380 --> 02:07:19.120 Yeah. Even though we both predicted Hillary would be president. Right. I think. 02:07:19.680 --> 02:07:20.140 Yeah. 02:07:20.300 --> 02:07:22.860 Let me make sure. Did we both predict Hillary would be president? 02:07:23.080 --> 02:07:28.940 Yes, yes, yes. Yes. Well, we did predict Trump was going to be president. That's for sure. 02:07:30.800 --> 02:07:36.000 Our categories were all different. Here we go. Trump wins. Trump wins. 02:07:36.160 --> 02:07:37.800 Super Tuesday. Blah, blah, blah. 02:07:38.660 --> 02:07:42.260 Clinton. Yes, we both agreed that Clinton would win the presidency. 02:07:42.720 --> 02:07:43.160 Yeah. 02:07:43.320 --> 02:07:43.460 So. 02:07:43.820 --> 02:07:44.940 That was our biggest. 02:07:45.440 --> 02:07:48.960 We were wrong about that one. But we were right about a lot of other things that year. 02:07:49.060 --> 02:07:55.160 Right about everything else except. Just a little teeny weasy. 02:07:55.860 --> 02:07:59.340 So I guess I got to be happy. Best in like almost 10 years. 02:07:59.980 --> 02:08:03.100 Yeah. Yeah, I'd say that's pretty damn good. 02:08:03.520 --> 02:08:09.380 Okay. Well, that's it for the show. You guys know curmudgeons-corner.com. 02:08:09.580 --> 02:08:13.840 We'll be back to doing normal shows next week, assuming nothing crazy happens. 02:08:14.480 --> 02:08:18.900 And it'll be longer than normal because for this week we recorded on a Sunday. 02:08:19.460 --> 02:08:24.420 So it'll be almost two weeks until the next episode is out. 02:08:25.650 --> 02:08:26.990 Is that the way this is working? 02:08:27.750 --> 02:08:34.330 Yes, yes. We went over this last week. We record one episode every Sunday through Saturday week. 02:08:35.250 --> 02:08:37.230 Right, so that means... 02:08:37.230 --> 02:08:44.150 So we're already done for the week of the 4th through the 10th. 02:08:44.430 --> 02:08:48.710 So chances are we won't record again until like the 15th or 16th. 02:08:50.050 --> 02:08:54.310 So unless we want to shift back to doing it earlier in the week instead of later 02:08:54.310 --> 02:09:01.290 in the week. But, you know, anyway, but yeah, so we'll be back to a normal show next time. 02:09:02.310 --> 02:09:05.790 And yeah, go to curmudgeoncypherandcorner.com. You can look at all our archives. 02:09:05.910 --> 02:09:10.950 You can actually listen to the prediction show that we just talked about if you want to. 02:09:11.290 --> 02:09:18.110 It was the last show recorded in 2024, December 27th. 02:09:18.690 --> 02:09:22.350 You know, you can go look at the, there's an archive section, 02:09:22.630 --> 02:09:25.630 click 2024, scroll down, find it, blah, blah, blah. 02:09:26.030 --> 02:09:29.190 I just listened to it. It was very exciting. It was a wonderful show. 02:09:29.330 --> 02:09:30.950 You guys should go back, listen to it. 02:09:31.130 --> 02:09:34.070 You can go back and listen to our 2016 prediction show too. 02:09:34.870 --> 02:09:38.810 That would have been the last one we recorded in 2015. It's all on the website. 02:09:38.950 --> 02:09:41.150 That's what the website's for. Listen to all these old episodes. 02:09:41.790 --> 02:09:46.690 Anyway, you can also find there all the ways to contact us, transcripts, all that kind of stuff. 02:09:47.110 --> 02:09:53.050 And of course, a link to our Patreon, where you can give us money at various levels. 02:09:53.110 --> 02:09:56.290 We will mention you on the show, we will ring a bell, we will send you a postcard, 02:09:56.370 --> 02:09:59.630 we will send you a mug, or importantly, at $2 a month or more, 02:09:59.830 --> 02:10:03.710 or if you just ask us, we will invite you to our curmudgeon's corner Slack. 02:10:04.740 --> 02:10:10.260 Where a bunch of us hang out and share links, talk about the news, 02:10:10.460 --> 02:10:14.120 talk about other things all through the week. It's lots of fun. The more the merrier. 02:10:14.460 --> 02:10:19.340 Please join us. We had one new person join this last week, but they haven't said anything yet. 02:10:19.860 --> 02:10:23.280 So I don't know, you know, but maybe they're lurking. 02:10:23.800 --> 02:10:25.320 Yes, probably. 02:10:25.760 --> 02:10:29.300 So welcome, Monica, if you're also listening to the show. 02:10:30.200 --> 02:10:32.820 Of course, we're saying it at the end, you know, at the end, 02:10:32.820 --> 02:10:35.480 And, you know, tail ends of a really long. 02:10:35.640 --> 02:10:41.000 More boring show where we're just listing a whole bunch of things. But anyway. 02:10:43.400 --> 02:10:46.220 Yeah. So did you want to highlight something from the Slack? 02:10:47.180 --> 02:10:50.400 Well, I did mention, because I don't think I mentioned this earlier, 02:10:50.680 --> 02:10:58.340 that as I was driving to Orlando last week, navigation on Google Maps suggested 02:10:58.340 --> 02:11:00.280 that I make a detour. Okay. 02:11:01.180 --> 02:11:07.200 And the detour suggested that I go through 5.6 miles of unpaved road. 02:11:07.720 --> 02:11:08.560 Excellent. 02:11:09.000 --> 02:11:12.520 In order to get to Orlando 23 minutes slower. 02:11:13.340 --> 02:11:16.780 Not sure, really. And I looked up, I double-checked. 02:11:16.780 --> 02:11:17.480 Was it Roy? 02:11:18.040 --> 02:11:22.040 No, it's not Roy. Roy is north of Orlando. 02:11:22.320 --> 02:11:28.420 For anybody who doesn't know, Yvonne and I did a trip together in the car. 02:11:28.700 --> 02:11:33.060 You can find it on ablesmay.com slash trip. 02:11:33.700 --> 02:11:33.880 Right. 02:11:34.300 --> 02:11:37.800 I make sure I'm giving you correct information. 02:11:39.160 --> 02:11:46.800 Ablesmay.com slash trip. It is labeled as the non-random predecessor GPS trip 02:11:46.800 --> 02:11:54.020 where we did back roads from New Jersey to Miami Beach using a GPS in 1998. 02:11:54.020 --> 02:12:03.040 Okay, let's be clear. This is in 1998. We used a Garmin GPS receiver hooked up with a laptop. 02:12:03.040 --> 02:12:07.560 We also tried and we couldn't get to work. We were going to get with my cell 02:12:07.560 --> 02:12:11.260 phone a data connection to see if we could upload. 02:12:11.440 --> 02:12:15.000 We had a Connectix Quick Cam to see if we could connect it. 02:12:15.080 --> 02:12:18.900 But the adapter that we got for the phone when we got there was the wrong. 02:12:18.980 --> 02:12:21.520 They sent us the wrong damn adapter for the phone. 02:12:21.720 --> 02:12:26.300 So we couldn't make that part work. But there are digital pictures there with 02:12:26.300 --> 02:12:31.160 what is a terrible camera for today's standards. 02:12:31.300 --> 02:12:37.220 But there was a digital camera back then and stuff. and we avoided any highways, 02:12:38.100 --> 02:12:43.060 Toll routes. The whole purpose of the trip was to make it all the way down by 02:12:43.060 --> 02:12:48.040 avoiding all major highways through there. And it was a very interesting trip. 02:12:48.200 --> 02:12:50.840 We got a lot of things. And one of the things that happened is an incident that 02:12:50.840 --> 02:12:55.780 happened with this so-called city of Roy, which it routed us through, 02:12:55.960 --> 02:12:58.880 which looked, wow, look at this mapped out city. 02:12:58.880 --> 02:13:03.320 And it was like swampland that somebody just mowed through and marked some streets somehow. 02:13:04.000 --> 02:13:08.880 And we almost got stuck in the mud. I did go and like find Roy on the map. 02:13:09.120 --> 02:13:14.760 I did see that they added some major roads around again, but it is still pretty 02:13:14.760 --> 02:13:18.440 much swampland with a whole bunch of unpaved roads. 02:13:18.620 --> 02:13:23.000 There are more houses there, but it's still pretty much the same. 02:13:23.800 --> 02:13:26.100 Excellent. I presume you've bought property there. 02:13:26.380 --> 02:13:27.440 Yes, of course. 02:13:28.180 --> 02:13:30.720 Okay. That your story? 02:13:31.380 --> 02:13:31.520 Yes. 02:13:32.160 --> 02:13:36.620 Okay. Well, I think we're done. So thank you, everybody, for joining us again. 02:13:36.780 --> 02:13:38.660 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Have a great week. 02:13:38.860 --> 02:13:44.500 Hope you had a good set of holidays, spent some time with the family, all that kind of stuff. 02:13:45.660 --> 02:13:48.780 And we'll talk to you next time. Goodbye. 02:13:50.440 --> 02:13:51.320 Say goodbye, Yvonne. 02:13:52.080 --> 02:13:52.460 Bye. 02:14:22.500 --> 02:14:27.920 Thank you. Okay, that's it. Thank you, Yvonne. We'll see you another time. 02:14:28.020 --> 02:14:29.200 All right. Bye. Thank you.