WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:03.590 You're on speaker instead of on my headphones. Hold on. 00:00:03.790 --> 00:00:04.010 That's right. 00:00:04.890 --> 00:00:07.410 I fix you. Okay, there we go. 00:00:07.550 --> 00:00:09.930 There's no fixing me. I don't know what you're talking about. 00:00:12.290 --> 00:00:15.630 I mean, this is what you get. 00:00:15.890 --> 00:00:21.050 I mean, there's just no software updates. There's no, you know. 00:00:22.110 --> 00:00:29.190 Right now, it's, you know, as far as I can tell from how much more supplements 00:00:29.190 --> 00:00:36.270 and medicines I take now, I'm not improving. 00:00:37.270 --> 00:00:37.750 Okay? 00:00:39.070 --> 00:00:40.850 Definitely not improving. 00:00:41.010 --> 00:00:41.870 Uh-huh. Uh-huh. 00:00:42.070 --> 00:00:42.490 Okay? 00:00:43.270 --> 00:00:46.690 Well, you know, those things give you superpowers, right? Isn't that how it works? 00:00:46.690 --> 00:00:48.450 Right. Of course. Yes. 00:00:50.530 --> 00:00:55.770 Okay. Start. Start, start, start. Here we go. 00:00:58.410 --> 00:00:58.890 Kaboom! 00:01:23.540 --> 00:01:30.840 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Wednesday, December 31st, 2025. 00:01:31.160 --> 00:01:37.200 It is just about 18.30 UTC as we are starting to record. I'm Sam Minter and 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:39.060 Yvonne Bow is here. Hello, Yvonne. 00:01:39.520 --> 00:01:39.760 Hello. 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:46.400 So now, this is our prediction show for 2026. 00:01:46.700 --> 00:01:49.960 It is the last show we were recording in 2026. It won't be out. 00:01:50.200 --> 00:01:52.740 No, it's the last show we're recording in 2025. 00:01:53.300 --> 00:01:56.560 It won't be out until 2026 because 00:01:56.560 --> 00:02:00.160 I'm not going to like turn it around in just a few hours or whatever. 00:02:00.860 --> 00:02:06.600 It'll be out in the next day or two. And so it will be the first show out in 00:02:06.600 --> 00:02:11.660 2026, but the last show recorded in 2025 because that's how we always do this. 00:02:11.900 --> 00:02:17.000 We are going to do our predictions and we won't have a but first or anything like that. 00:02:17.140 --> 00:02:21.660 We're going to jump straight into it in just a second because this is always 00:02:21.660 --> 00:02:25.640 one of our longest shows of the year, so we just need to get into it. 00:02:26.020 --> 00:02:31.340 Just for those of you who have not listened to one of these before, here is how it works. 00:02:31.640 --> 00:02:38.960 We have some major segments, politics, international, economy, 00:02:39.440 --> 00:02:43.320 technology, and hodgepodge. Each of those will be a section. 00:02:43.660 --> 00:02:49.140 Within each of those, we have subcategories as well. And, 00:02:49.870 --> 00:02:54.630 And we have a whole bunch of questions that we're going to make predictions on. 00:02:55.430 --> 00:03:01.690 Those predictions have to be things that the first week of 2027, 00:03:01.690 --> 00:03:07.350 we will be able to definitively say, were we right or were we wrong? 00:03:07.610 --> 00:03:09.810 So they are time limited to 2026. 00:03:10.110 --> 00:03:16.870 So it's not questions like, you know, will humans land on Mars sometime this 00:03:16.870 --> 00:03:24.870 century? you know it has to be will humans land on mars in 2026 is this like. 00:03:24.870 --> 00:03:25.690 The price is right. 00:03:25.690 --> 00:03:28.610 It is are we like closest you 00:03:28.610 --> 00:03:34.490 can get without going over going over yeah exactly and so we'll have a bunch 00:03:34.490 --> 00:03:39.290 of these and for the last few weeks i've been pushing a google doc where listeners 00:03:39.290 --> 00:03:44.450 could add questions they wanted us to answer as usual people sort of jumped 00:03:44.450 --> 00:03:46.150 in just in the last couple of days. 00:03:46.330 --> 00:03:49.030 It was very slow. And then the last couple of days, people filled things in. 00:03:49.210 --> 00:03:55.370 I will say we had a decent number of suggestions this time around. 00:03:55.730 --> 00:04:00.950 And so I added very few of my own. I added a couple, but not very many. 00:04:01.590 --> 00:04:08.350 Yvonne didn't add any at all. So, you know, we're going to go through this list and jump through it. 00:04:08.530 --> 00:04:13.010 So anything you want to say before we start off on the first section even. 00:04:13.510 --> 00:04:16.170 Oh, it's cold, Sam. 00:04:16.550 --> 00:04:17.470 It's cold. 00:04:17.670 --> 00:04:18.490 I'm freezing. 00:04:19.130 --> 00:04:21.810 Because what? It's like 50 degrees there or something? 00:04:22.530 --> 00:04:30.110 Yeah. Well, it was... Right now, it says it's 62, but I... 00:04:31.000 --> 00:04:37.260 I mean, every once in a while we do this thing where Yvonne is like, 00:04:37.380 --> 00:04:40.680 oh, my God, it's freezing. And it turns out it was 42. 00:04:40.680 --> 00:04:42.980 It was 42 degrees last night. 00:04:43.500 --> 00:04:46.060 Oh, my God. That's so horrible. 00:04:46.560 --> 00:04:53.020 Look, I have been. It was. Look, it got in Orlando yesterday. 00:04:54.100 --> 00:05:01.920 It got it was. It felt like in the high 40s, low 50s. is we were out and about. 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:02.960 Uh-huh. 00:05:03.860 --> 00:05:09.640 I, you know, since we got into buildings, I was tolerating it, but I wasn't liking it. 00:05:10.340 --> 00:05:17.080 But, oh, my God. I mean, my wife, you know, look, she had a scarf, 00:05:17.080 --> 00:05:24.080 she had a jacket, she had a raincoat, she had a sweater, and then she had a shirt. I mean... 00:05:24.080 --> 00:05:26.080 You damn Florida people. And gloves. 00:05:26.240 --> 00:05:26.820 And gloves! 00:05:27.460 --> 00:05:31.840 If I'm going to be outside for less than 10 minutes, I don't even bother putting 00:05:31.840 --> 00:05:34.860 on anything other than like a t-shirt in the forties. 00:05:35.580 --> 00:05:38.860 Like it's different. Like if I'm going to be out for a couple hours or something, 00:05:38.860 --> 00:05:42.000 but like if I'm just going out for a couple of minutes and coming back, 00:05:42.220 --> 00:05:44.680 why bother? You know, it's fine. 00:05:45.080 --> 00:05:49.700 You know? And, and even then it's like, unless it's below 30, 00:05:49.880 --> 00:05:53.260 I'm in a light jacket, you know? So. 00:05:53.460 --> 00:06:03.240 I mean, I not, no, this is look. I must admit that my cold weather resistance has been in a downward, 00:06:03.880 --> 00:06:08.880 has been on a, like my health, it's been on a decline. 00:06:09.880 --> 00:06:14.960 A long decline ever since, like, you actually lived, you lived in Pittsburgh 00:06:14.960 --> 00:06:20.700 for a while. You lived in Northern Indiana for a while. And those places are cold. 00:06:20.960 --> 00:06:27.400 Yes. And I, look, that was not my, there is a reason I moved to Florida. 00:06:28.670 --> 00:06:32.450 I mean, part of it was, like in Indiana, for example, I went, 00:06:32.990 --> 00:06:38.610 you know, for several months of the year, I stared out at a lake that was frozen. 00:06:39.270 --> 00:06:45.090 You know what? No. I said, no, never again am I going to live like this. 00:06:45.710 --> 00:06:50.230 You know, one of the reasons I actually like the Pacific Northwest is to me, 00:06:50.390 --> 00:06:56.070 like, most of the year is what I consider mild, which is highs in the 60s and 00:06:56.070 --> 00:06:57.770 70s, which is perfect for me. 00:06:57.770 --> 00:07:02.650 like i hate it when the temperature gets in the 80s and i don't mind it that 00:07:02.650 --> 00:07:08.050 much when it's in the 50s or 40s but like 60s or 70s is like a perfect zone 00:07:08.050 --> 00:07:13.370 for me and like that's you know most of the year we're in the 60s or 70s let 00:07:13.370 --> 00:07:16.670 me say right right now right now like i like. 00:07:16.670 --> 00:07:19.410 My 80s music i like my 80s temperature. 00:07:19.410 --> 00:07:24.810 Low 80s is great if it's in the outdoors if it's in the low 80s I'm like staying 00:07:24.810 --> 00:07:26.970 inside into air conditioning because it's too damn hot. 00:07:27.090 --> 00:07:34.790 Low 80s is great outdoors. I love low 80s. Low 80s is me rolling down the windows weather. Okay. 00:07:35.510 --> 00:07:38.450 You know, I'm driving with the AC off. Okay. 00:07:38.990 --> 00:07:43.910 And that's not sleep weather, but it's nice because usually if it gets during 00:07:43.910 --> 00:07:49.810 the day in the low 80s, it means that during the day sunrise, it was in the high 60s. 00:07:50.290 --> 00:07:56.850 So we'll average like 70s during the day. you'll get to a low 80s you know it's 00:07:56.850 --> 00:08:04.350 a nice day it's a nice day I love it it's fantastic but this shit fuck this 00:08:04.350 --> 00:08:09.070 shit 42 degrees this morning you fucking kidding me. 00:08:10.020 --> 00:08:16.080 At this very moment outside here where I am in Everett, Washington, it's 36 degrees. 00:08:16.440 --> 00:08:21.020 We have highs in the 40s predicted for the next 10 days, basically. 00:08:21.340 --> 00:08:25.560 And that to me, like if I had to pick ideal outdoor weather, 00:08:25.740 --> 00:08:29.080 I'd be up a little bit. I'd be like 65, 65 to 70. 00:08:29.300 --> 00:08:32.740 But like this weather, I throw in a light jacket. It's no big deal. 00:08:32.740 --> 00:08:41.420 Now, of course, honestly, the reality is 95% of the time plus, I am inside. 00:08:41.560 --> 00:08:44.240 So the outdoor temperature just doesn't matter. 00:08:44.460 --> 00:08:50.320 I have my thermostat inside the house set to keep the house at 70 degrees no matter what. 00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:54.560 Hot or cold outside, it's 70 degrees inside, and that's perfect. 00:08:55.180 --> 00:08:59.000 Although every once in a while, you know, depending on what I am physically 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:03.240 doing and how I am feeling at the moment, I might feel like I need to change 00:09:03.240 --> 00:09:06.140 it to, yeah, somewhere from 68 to 72. 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:08.900 But normally I just keep it pegged at 70. 00:09:11.020 --> 00:09:17.300 Well, I mean, anyway, we've dragged on long enough for the weather. 00:09:17.420 --> 00:09:18.340 Let's make some predictions. 00:09:18.560 --> 00:09:18.660 Sam. 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:19.520 Can we start? 00:09:19.780 --> 00:09:21.060 Okay. Let's make some predictions. 00:09:21.640 --> 00:09:26.140 So each of, we're going to do the politics section first, and this is usually 00:09:26.140 --> 00:09:27.900 the longest of the segments. 00:09:28.600 --> 00:09:34.680 And it is subdivided. We didn't used to always subdivide, but now we now we subdivide. 00:09:35.340 --> 00:09:40.600 And and so the first subdivision of politics is presidential. 00:09:41.500 --> 00:09:46.180 And the first batch of questions here is from our loyal listener, Ed. 00:09:46.720 --> 00:09:53.700 So starting out strong, will President Trump still be president at the end of 2026? 00:09:54.040 --> 00:09:55.060 Fuck me. 00:09:58.490 --> 00:09:59.370 I'm going to go. 00:09:59.590 --> 00:10:06.310 Yes, I, you know, that, that is the safe answer. I'm going to go with no. 00:10:06.610 --> 00:10:07.170 Whoa. 00:10:07.650 --> 00:10:11.750 And, and, and I, I recognize this is the risky answer. 00:10:12.230 --> 00:10:17.390 And, and his follow-up question is if not what will cause his loss of position. 00:10:17.690 --> 00:10:23.330 And he offers, uh, he offers four choices, death or five, death, 00:10:24.070 --> 00:10:27.790 disabling illness, impeachment, resignation, or assassination. 00:10:28.430 --> 00:10:30.850 I will start out by saying... 00:10:30.850 --> 00:10:33.270 Let's not predict assassination, shall we? 00:10:33.690 --> 00:10:34.650 Well, I was going to... 00:10:34.650 --> 00:10:35.770 We'll get into trouble with... 00:10:36.870 --> 00:10:44.650 Yes. Yes, I'm not going to predict those. And I feel like resignation is really 00:10:44.650 --> 00:10:46.210 unlikely, given his ego. 00:10:46.430 --> 00:10:52.830 Oh, God, he would never resign. I mean, unless... Here is my unless. 00:10:53.310 --> 00:10:53.870 Yes. 00:10:53.870 --> 00:10:59.770 He would never resign unless he loses his marbles so much that he gets convinced 00:10:59.770 --> 00:11:01.030 into resigning somehow. 00:11:01.450 --> 00:11:05.930 You understand what I'm saying? You know, something happens with his head and 00:11:05.930 --> 00:11:08.530 somebody just convinces him to resign. 00:11:08.770 --> 00:11:10.250 Somehow that's the way to win. 00:11:10.650 --> 00:11:11.170 What? 00:11:11.750 --> 00:11:16.130 Yes. I think impeachment is nearly impossible as well. 00:11:16.610 --> 00:11:23.610 Like, you know, we've been through this game twice. 00:11:24.010 --> 00:11:26.370 Well, no, they impeached him twice. They impeached him twice. 00:11:26.510 --> 00:11:28.770 They haven't convicted him. Well, no, they haven't convicted him. 00:11:29.550 --> 00:11:34.330 You know, now, now, is it possible that we get a third impeachment? 00:11:35.050 --> 00:11:36.670 It's I just don't. 00:11:36.970 --> 00:11:40.410 Not this year. I would say not this year. Maybe next year. 00:11:40.990 --> 00:11:43.250 I mean, next. I mean, well, you're listening. 00:11:43.450 --> 00:11:43.850 2027. 00:11:44.230 --> 00:11:45.670 2027. Yeah. You're listening to this. 00:11:46.190 --> 00:11:53.650 If the Democrats take the House and we have like live video of him with Epstein girls or something. 00:11:54.210 --> 00:11:57.730 Then I think that they will rationalize that, too. 00:11:59.250 --> 00:12:02.470 Yeah yeah um i mean they've. 00:12:02.470 --> 00:12:07.830 Rationalized everything so far i mean why won't they rationalize that too. 00:12:07.830 --> 00:12:14.470 No i i but anyway my prediction and again i recognize this one is out on a limb 00:12:14.470 --> 00:12:19.770 a little bit i will say he will be gone at the end of 2026 and it will be health 00:12:19.770 --> 00:12:24.090 reasons i won't say for sure like he's going to be dead. 00:12:24.310 --> 00:12:28.450 Maybe he'll be dead. Maybe it'll be some serious. But I feel like his health 00:12:28.450 --> 00:12:32.050 is declining and declining more rapidly as time goes on. 00:12:32.130 --> 00:12:34.590 And he was never particularly healthy to begin with. 00:12:34.870 --> 00:12:38.650 You predicted he's good. You predicted that he's going to die of a heart attack 00:12:38.650 --> 00:12:40.190 every year for the last 10 years. 00:12:40.410 --> 00:12:45.390 Well, by the way, if we talk about every prediction this long, 00:12:45.610 --> 00:12:49.170 this show will be the longest show in the history of Curbudge's Corner. 00:12:49.470 --> 00:12:49.930 Right. 00:12:50.430 --> 00:12:50.630 Okay. 00:12:50.830 --> 00:12:54.690 Our longest show ever was like six or seven hours, so that would be hard to top. 00:12:55.850 --> 00:12:58.930 At the rate we are going, we couldn't be approaching that. 00:12:59.070 --> 00:13:04.130 So therefore, these shows are typically three hours, the prediction shows. 00:13:04.130 --> 00:13:07.930 Yeah, yeah, yeah. But let's try not to, you know, break records. 00:13:08.110 --> 00:13:10.250 Okay, all right. Let's, okay. 00:13:10.890 --> 00:13:15.730 Yvonne is impatient. Okay, fine. He will not be president at the end of 2026, 00:13:16.050 --> 00:13:18.870 and the reason will be something health-related. 00:13:19.550 --> 00:13:23.870 Okay, and Yvonne says he will be. Okay, next, Yvonne. 00:13:24.900 --> 00:13:29.700 What will the DJT stock be at at the end of 2026? 00:13:30.100 --> 00:13:35.180 Oh, fuck me. Do I have to give a precise number? 00:13:35.820 --> 00:13:38.260 Well, it was somewhere in the 12s. 00:13:38.680 --> 00:13:41.040 I haven't even looked at this thing in forever. 00:13:41.460 --> 00:13:44.740 Last time I looked at it, which was a few weeks ago, somewhere in the 12s. 00:13:44.860 --> 00:13:48.240 It's at 13.45, so it wasn't that far off. 00:13:49.140 --> 00:13:54.380 I will say that the price will be somewhere between 5 and 15. There we go. How's that? 00:13:54.380 --> 00:13:55.900 Between 12 and 15? 00:13:56.300 --> 00:13:57.900 Five and 15. Five. 00:13:58.220 --> 00:14:02.360 Oh, five and 15. Oh, you're going with the nice, like, Abel Smey-style ranges this year. 00:14:02.400 --> 00:14:05.080 Well, fuck yeah. I mean, otherwise I'm going to get this wrong again. 00:14:05.580 --> 00:14:09.180 Well, you know, I used to do all these ranges, and, like, the last couple years 00:14:09.180 --> 00:14:13.740 I've just done up or down. So I'm going to say down over the course of the year. 00:14:14.300 --> 00:14:18.100 I'm going to keep the range. Between five and 15. There we go. 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:23.760 Okay. There you go. Okay. Next up, will the courts... 00:14:24.830 --> 00:14:29.950 presumably going all the way up to SCOTUS, Ed says, require the Kennedy Center 00:14:29.950 --> 00:14:32.610 to remove the Donald Trump signs on the outside. 00:14:33.490 --> 00:14:37.090 I'm going to say no. This will not even... 00:14:37.090 --> 00:14:43.630 Well, okay, I don't think it will get to a point of a decision in like just during 2025. 00:14:43.830 --> 00:14:49.850 So I'm going to say no, but simply because it will still be tied up in the court. 00:14:50.050 --> 00:14:52.570 So has somebody already done a lawsuit over this? 00:14:52.850 --> 00:14:57.650 I don't know. It's just because, you know, I'm going to say no because either 00:14:57.650 --> 00:15:01.150 somebody hasn't filed a lawsuit or it's just, you know, it is illegal. 00:15:01.370 --> 00:15:02.810 I mean, the law is pretty clear. 00:15:03.150 --> 00:15:10.250 Well, here's the weirdness on this, right? Like, the law is about what its official name is. 00:15:10.730 --> 00:15:14.630 Does the law specify you can't put extra words on the building? 00:15:14.630 --> 00:15:21.150 Does the law specify you can't put extra words on programs and paper documents? 00:15:21.150 --> 00:15:24.910 As long as you use the official name in legal documents, it's probably fine. 00:15:25.930 --> 00:15:26.890 I, no. 00:15:27.390 --> 00:15:27.810 No? 00:15:27.810 --> 00:15:33.090 I don't think that that, I mean, I could see how that argument might be made, 00:15:33.110 --> 00:15:33.890 especially by Trump's- I mean. 00:15:33.890 --> 00:15:37.750 Because you got the same thing of the Department of War versus the Department 00:15:37.750 --> 00:15:38.790 of Defense. It's the same kind of thing. 00:15:38.790 --> 00:15:43.370 True, but I haven't seen anybody also sue properly about that either. 00:15:43.690 --> 00:15:44.530 Well, here's the thing. 00:15:44.650 --> 00:15:48.850 And nobody's got standing. Now, I could say that I don't know who would have 00:15:48.850 --> 00:15:52.150 standing in the stupid Kennedy Center thing. either i don't know. 00:15:52.150 --> 00:15:58.150 Yeah that's the thing i think this is the kind of issue that it's just not going 00:15:58.150 --> 00:16:02.270 to go anywhere like even if somebody makes the lawsuits that it can get and 00:16:02.270 --> 00:16:06.790 certainly not in this certainly not to resolution i don't think you get this coming year anywhere. 00:16:06.790 --> 00:16:15.370 This year however this year no but with a new congress maybe because they would have standing, 00:16:16.400 --> 00:16:19.700 As has been shown in the past in these issues. But I don't think that this is 00:16:19.700 --> 00:16:23.960 something that will change during 2026. 00:16:24.660 --> 00:16:31.540 Okay. Now, let me ask. The next couple of things that Ed suggested are, 00:16:31.720 --> 00:16:34.460 will Trump do various things internationally? 00:16:34.820 --> 00:16:37.260 Should those be in the international section or should they be here? 00:16:37.280 --> 00:16:39.320 Yes. They should be in the international section. 00:16:39.800 --> 00:16:41.540 I'm going to move them down then. 00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:48.560 Okay. And, uh, 00:16:53.340 --> 00:16:56.920 wait, wait, I'm noticing other things in the wrong sections. 00:16:56.920 --> 00:17:01.500 I should, I thought I'd fixed all these like a couple hours ago, but apparently not. 00:17:01.500 --> 00:17:08.880 Just a sheer display of your continued incompetence at this job. We need to cut your pay. 00:17:08.880 --> 00:17:12.660 I know it's, it's, it's horrible. 00:17:13.080 --> 00:17:17.080 I, you know, I make too much from this thing. 00:17:17.260 --> 00:17:20.980 Yes. You know, yes, you're definitely making way too much from this damn thing. 00:17:21.640 --> 00:17:26.420 Okay. Continuing. Okay. That's international too. 00:17:27.140 --> 00:17:31.360 People, people, when you add things into the categories, like, 00:17:31.500 --> 00:17:33.940 you know, if, if you're asking about other countries, 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:41.900 even if it's Trump, it's international okay so i i'm moving this down and yeah 00:17:41.900 --> 00:17:47.800 okay and again my i i i went through all of these questions like two hours ago 00:17:47.800 --> 00:17:52.380 and moved a bunch so like my fault for missing some okay, 00:17:53.280 --> 00:17:58.480 will scotus rule against potus on tariffs this is from bruce now the all of 00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:00.240 the others so far from that. This is from Bruce. 00:18:01.680 --> 00:18:04.960 I think that in the case that the lower courts. 00:18:05.820 --> 00:18:08.300 There's one that's at SCOTUS right now. 00:18:08.600 --> 00:18:11.760 The one that is at SCOTUS, I think that the answer is yes, that they're going 00:18:11.760 --> 00:18:15.260 to rule against them on the tariffs. 00:18:15.620 --> 00:18:19.120 However, it doesn't mean that the tariffs will go away because they have been 00:18:19.120 --> 00:18:22.100 using other different authorities in order to impose the tariffs. 00:18:22.440 --> 00:18:28.200 So, therefore, I think that they will rule against them on that specific case. 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:32.880 Yeah. And so, like, what you said, I was going to say, I think they're going 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:37.160 to find some way to split the baby. and the way you described, 00:18:37.520 --> 00:18:39.420 like, I think lines up, actually. 00:18:39.900 --> 00:18:45.040 They say that this particular authority that's going through the courts right 00:18:45.040 --> 00:18:48.060 now was not the right authority to use. 00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:53.260 And Donald Trump immediately, like you said, they've already started using other authorities, too. 00:18:53.440 --> 00:18:57.820 They just immediately reenact the same tariff under another authority and it 00:18:57.820 --> 00:18:59.560 resets going through the courts. 00:18:59.840 --> 00:19:07.300 And so, effectively, they rule against Donald Trump, but without actually affecting 00:19:07.300 --> 00:19:09.980 the policy on the ground in any way. 00:19:10.380 --> 00:19:10.640 That's right. 00:19:11.120 --> 00:19:16.220 Okay. Yes. I think that's possible. Yes, that's my prediction too. 00:19:17.320 --> 00:19:21.960 Will Trump get to nominate a new SCOTUS justice from Bruce? 00:19:23.140 --> 00:19:28.380 And we've got, there have been rumors for a while that both Alito and Thomas 00:19:28.380 --> 00:19:33.200 are essentially ready to retire and they're going to want to do so while Trump is president. 00:19:33.200 --> 00:19:37.840 And they're probably going to want to do so while Trump is president and has 00:19:37.840 --> 00:19:39.240 a strong position in the Senate. 00:19:39.780 --> 00:19:43.380 So the question is, do they do it this year? 00:19:44.180 --> 00:19:46.340 Or does at least one of them do it this year? 00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:52.120 How old is Alito? He's 75. 00:19:52.960 --> 00:19:55.840 And of course, any of the others could like, yeah. Yeah. 00:19:56.940 --> 00:19:59.780 Have a health issue or retire for some other reason. 00:19:59.820 --> 00:20:01.100 I'm going to say no, not this year. 00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:05.340 I'm going to say yes. 00:20:06.180 --> 00:20:12.560 You think that they throw it? You think Alita or Thomas? Because they're age 75 and 77. 00:20:13.240 --> 00:20:13.780 Yes. 00:20:14.060 --> 00:20:18.940 I don't think that either of these guys will either. They will. 00:20:20.020 --> 00:20:21.820 You think they're going to die in office? 00:20:22.560 --> 00:20:25.620 Yeah. I think they will. Yeah. 00:20:27.040 --> 00:20:31.620 These guys love holding on to power like this. Come on. No way. 00:20:32.460 --> 00:20:36.900 You know, honestly, I feel like, and I forget, I have not listened to last year's 00:20:36.900 --> 00:20:39.900 prediction show, but we had this question last year, too. 00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:44.640 And I think I predicted that there would be a SCOTUS vacancy already. 00:20:45.160 --> 00:20:48.260 And so I'm a little bit surprised. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't listened. 00:20:48.440 --> 00:20:52.680 I don't remember. But I think I'm a little surprised it hasn't happened already, 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:57.840 because you'd think these two would want to lock in that conservative position 00:20:57.840 --> 00:20:59.880 for another X number of years. 00:21:00.100 --> 00:21:03.460 Now, I guess they may just be counting on their locking in the presidency. 00:21:03.980 --> 00:21:06.420 And so they don't have to worry about that. There's not going to be another 00:21:06.420 --> 00:21:08.180 Democratic president anytime soon anyway. 00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:13.540 It so now i don't i think you're you're overly complicated their thought process 00:21:13.540 --> 00:21:21.480 i mean there is listen alito and thomas have shown that that job has an unlimited amount of, 00:21:22.320 --> 00:21:28.740 perks and trappings that they have availed themselves to that no other job would 00:21:28.740 --> 00:21:32.980 have and these people like that shit too much to just go and give it up. 00:21:33.800 --> 00:21:37.340 I can see your argument. I can see your argument for sure. 00:21:38.300 --> 00:21:44.100 On the other hand, you know, you have the counter arguments of, 00:21:44.120 --> 00:21:50.180 you know, Scalia died early and unexpectedly. And, of course. 00:21:50.420 --> 00:21:53.540 On the other side— But he was also of the same thought. Look, 00:21:53.660 --> 00:21:57.420 l'état c'est moi, baby, as it used to be said. 00:21:57.540 --> 00:22:01.420 Okay, you know, après moi, le déluge. 00:22:01.420 --> 00:22:05.040 you know after me the deluge listen 00:22:05.040 --> 00:22:08.420 these guys they don't you think 00:22:08.420 --> 00:22:14.320 they're thinking of the of the greater good of the conservative cause blah blah 00:22:14.320 --> 00:22:18.700 blah have you not seen that all these people are all just in the end selfish 00:22:18.700 --> 00:22:27.100 pricks yes yes yes so there you go i. 00:22:27.100 --> 00:22:31.140 I mean you you do also have the Ruth Bader Ginsburg precedent that they've got 00:22:31.140 --> 00:22:37.080 to be worried about where she was like, oh, no problem. We know Hillary's going 00:22:37.080 --> 00:22:40.520 to win, so I can wait. And then, you know, that didn't happen. 00:22:41.560 --> 00:22:48.200 Yeah. So anyway. Okay. Next up, I was yes, you were no. 00:22:49.220 --> 00:22:55.120 Blah, blah, blah. Okay. Another from Ed. What additional Washington structure 00:22:55.120 --> 00:22:58.800 will Trump rename in his honor in 2026. 00:22:59.080 --> 00:23:03.620 We know we did the Kennedy Center and new structures he's building doesn't count 00:23:03.620 --> 00:23:06.660 because he wants to build the ballroom. He wants to build that arch. 00:23:06.820 --> 00:23:09.040 It's like renaming existing things. 00:23:10.540 --> 00:23:12.260 What do you think? Any more? 00:23:12.660 --> 00:23:13.800 I, you know. 00:23:13.800 --> 00:23:15.220 The Trump Washington Monument? 00:23:15.720 --> 00:23:16.200 Yes. 00:23:17.220 --> 00:23:19.540 Ed had suggested, I believe that. 00:23:19.540 --> 00:23:24.600 Somebody actually already did, did like a Photoshop, like showing like the letters 00:23:24.600 --> 00:23:29.480 Trump, like written on the side of the Washington Monument that I saw like last week. 00:23:29.860 --> 00:23:32.600 I mean, I, that, that, that's right up his alley. 00:23:32.980 --> 00:23:36.280 I, I, I, I, yeah, sure. He'll try to rename. I'm going to say he's going to 00:23:36.280 --> 00:23:37.280 try to rename something else. 00:23:37.740 --> 00:23:40.140 Yeah. Yeah. But which? The question. 00:23:40.140 --> 00:23:44.480 I don't know which. I'm just going to say that he's going to try to rename something 00:23:44.480 --> 00:23:45.200 else. That's my prediction. 00:23:45.440 --> 00:23:49.900 Now, Ed had suggested Dulles, which is not technically in Washington, 00:23:50.060 --> 00:23:52.660 D.C., of course, but is in the Washington metropolitan area. 00:23:56.480 --> 00:24:00.680 If we're not naming which thing, I will also say yes. 00:24:00.680 --> 00:24:06.680 He will try to rename something else after himself, but not specify what. 00:24:06.680 --> 00:24:12.760 But I don't think it's going to be like, you know, the Trump Jefferson Memorial, the Trump Washington. 00:24:13.020 --> 00:24:15.940 But I'm going to say this. I don't know why they're saying Dulles. 00:24:16.040 --> 00:24:19.680 If he's going to go for an airport, why not go for the gold? Trump Reagan. 00:24:20.100 --> 00:24:20.800 Trump Reagan? 00:24:21.220 --> 00:24:26.080 Yeah. I mean, he already went for Trump Kennedy Center. Why the fuck not Trump Reagan? 00:24:27.140 --> 00:24:31.600 Yeah, I could see that. And remember, this is 2026 specifically. 00:24:32.180 --> 00:24:35.200 So, like, his ballroom ain't going to be ready. So that doesn't count. 00:24:35.200 --> 00:24:37.660 And that would be a new thing anyway. I'm talking renaming. 00:24:38.660 --> 00:24:41.120 What else? The Trump Smithsonian? 00:24:42.420 --> 00:24:43.620 The Trump Smithsonian. 00:24:44.420 --> 00:24:44.900 Yeah. 00:24:44.960 --> 00:24:47.980 The Trump Jefferson Memorial. The Trump Lincoln Memorial. 00:24:48.760 --> 00:24:52.860 Yeah, I don't know. I'm just going to say yes without specifying. 00:24:53.020 --> 00:24:54.580 Trump Pennsylvania Avenue. 00:24:54.920 --> 00:24:58.280 Because I figure it's not going to be one of the big ones. I mean, 00:24:58.380 --> 00:25:04.240 even he would have issues with, like, those. I don't know. 00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:08.360 I mean, Trump, Pennsylvania Avenue, I don't know what else. 00:25:09.430 --> 00:25:09.790 Okay. 00:25:10.270 --> 00:25:10.770 Anyway. 00:25:11.270 --> 00:25:17.930 Now, next up, and this one was one I added, because I was surprised nobody else 00:25:17.930 --> 00:25:20.990 had put anything related to this anywhere in here. 00:25:21.410 --> 00:25:27.570 But any additional impact on Trump himself from the Epstein files? 00:25:28.070 --> 00:25:36.590 Oh, God, yes. This thing is like a trip, trip, trip of fucking, I mean. 00:25:37.030 --> 00:25:40.870 I mean, we're not doing a real show. this week or we'd be talking about the 00:25:40.870 --> 00:25:44.210 allegations in there of like additional rapes. 00:25:44.410 --> 00:25:48.910 Murders, murders of a baby. Listen, the answer is yes. 00:25:49.370 --> 00:25:52.350 The answer is, the answer is he's not getting away. 00:25:52.630 --> 00:25:58.490 He has not, you know, he has managed to get away, you know, make other stuff 00:25:58.490 --> 00:26:01.130 go away. He's not making this go away. 00:26:01.570 --> 00:26:06.190 And see, the thing is, you know, and we're not going to do like a segment on it, 00:26:06.270 --> 00:26:09.430 like if we were doing a real show but like the we got 00:26:09.430 --> 00:26:12.470 more allegations we don't 00:26:12.470 --> 00:26:15.930 have more proof which is why most 00:26:15.930 --> 00:26:21.170 of the mainstream media outlets are like holding off on this stuff with like 00:26:21.170 --> 00:26:25.230 a 10-foot pole and not even mentioning most of the stuff that you see on social 00:26:25.230 --> 00:26:32.050 media because yes there's an allegation of something really insane in the documents 00:26:32.050 --> 00:26:35.510 but there's no proof of it beyond And, okay, 00:26:35.750 --> 00:26:40.670 somebody called in and made the allegation, but we also don't yet know, 00:26:40.810 --> 00:26:45.690 because there are still millions of documents, apparently, that are still unreleased. 00:26:45.690 --> 00:26:48.690 We don't know if these claims were investigated at all. 00:26:49.070 --> 00:26:51.830 Did somebody look into it and determine it was false? 00:26:52.530 --> 00:26:56.790 Did no one look into it? We just don't know. You know? 00:26:56.950 --> 00:26:57.010 Yeah. 00:26:58.190 --> 00:27:04.950 I do think that given the volume of allegations and the fact that he died, 00:27:05.550 --> 00:27:14.230 Epstein died, which in most cases, look, prosecutions end with the death of the person. Okay. 00:27:15.150 --> 00:27:18.290 So that is something that's happened. 00:27:18.370 --> 00:27:23.770 Hell, if you're not even convicted, let's say you go to a trial and you're convicted, 00:27:24.050 --> 00:27:26.810 but not sentenced. And you die before sentencing. 00:27:27.050 --> 00:27:31.650 Everything goes away. But so this happened. 00:27:31.690 --> 00:27:36.810 The reason I always remember this was Ken Lay, the CEO of Enron. That happened. 00:27:37.090 --> 00:27:41.690 He was prosecuted, convicted and died before sentencing. 00:27:41.870 --> 00:27:45.290 And basically it's like he was never convicted because he died before sentencing. 00:27:46.630 --> 00:27:51.670 So in the Epstein case, I do think that because of Epstein's death, 00:27:52.150 --> 00:27:57.650 a lot in those voluminous files basically just wasn't following up anymore. 00:27:58.370 --> 00:28:02.690 Now, Glaine Maxwell was investigated, you know, was investigated and prosecuted and convicted her. 00:28:02.850 --> 00:28:05.930 Well, and a lot of it wasn't investigated earlier either. 00:28:06.090 --> 00:28:10.750 A lot of these claims that are coming out are like 15, 20, some of them 30 years 00:28:10.750 --> 00:28:14.470 old, you know, and are coming out into files now. 00:28:14.990 --> 00:28:19.770 Still, you have to remember that, you know, one of the records that came out 00:28:19.770 --> 00:28:24.710 this week was related to travel records of the Miami Herald reporter. Actually. 00:28:24.970 --> 00:28:26.110 And that was not that old. 00:28:26.810 --> 00:28:34.490 Right. That actually, you know, really made the Seppstein case happen. That's the reality. 00:28:35.070 --> 00:28:48.330 Cold, you know, she went and dug through everything and made a series on the Herald that literally, 00:28:48.590 --> 00:28:51.910 the SDNY looked at it. 00:28:51.950 --> 00:28:55.910 And when they read it, they said, what the fuck? And they reopened, 00:28:55.990 --> 00:28:57.130 they opened that case again. 00:28:59.160 --> 00:29:04.660 So what I'm saying is that I think it's entirely possible that, 00:29:04.840 --> 00:29:10.080 you know, we go back through all of this again. And it's just, 00:29:10.140 --> 00:29:14.140 it's just that nobody, it's so big that nobody's touched some of this stuff. 00:29:14.680 --> 00:29:22.280 Yeah, well, it's so big that nobody's touched some of it. And people were intimidated away from it. 00:29:22.600 --> 00:29:22.820 Yes. 00:29:24.340 --> 00:29:27.800 People who were investigators were told not to touch it. 00:29:28.280 --> 00:29:28.460 Right. 00:29:28.460 --> 00:29:33.580 People who were victims were told that bad things would happen to them or their 00:29:33.580 --> 00:29:38.000 families if they pursued it. Some of them were paid off. 00:29:39.140 --> 00:29:43.580 There's a lot of history of apparently Epstein just handing out money for people 00:29:43.580 --> 00:29:44.980 to shut the hell up and go away. 00:29:47.400 --> 00:29:52.520 Anyway, yes, without doing a segment on Epstein, we both agree there will be 00:29:52.520 --> 00:29:57.120 more related to Donald Trump that continues to come out. Yes. 00:29:57.800 --> 00:30:02.000 But you don't think it'll cause a resignation or impeachment or whatever, 00:30:02.260 --> 00:30:06.200 you know, and I think even if he disappears, it won't be that. 00:30:06.320 --> 00:30:10.740 Donald Trump is not leaving the White House, I think, unless it's in a body 00:30:10.740 --> 00:30:12.240 bag right now at this point. 00:30:13.290 --> 00:30:17.470 Okay. Okay, that's it for presidential. Moving on to Congress. 00:30:18.290 --> 00:30:22.930 Number one from Ed, what will be the makeup of Congress after the election? 00:30:23.150 --> 00:30:24.930 He wants no majority and number of seats. 00:30:25.310 --> 00:30:27.650 I'm not going to do number of seats this year. 00:30:27.790 --> 00:30:31.310 But I will say- I will clearly say the Democrats are taking the House this year. 00:30:31.430 --> 00:30:32.890 Doesn't matter what the hell happens. 00:30:34.050 --> 00:30:38.270 Yes, I was going to say Democrats take the House, but not the Senate. That was my prediction. 00:30:38.950 --> 00:30:44.970 Very tough. I mean, even though, you know, it's just the map is very tough for the Senate. 00:30:45.110 --> 00:30:47.290 There's just no, there's just not enough seats. 00:30:47.290 --> 00:30:53.650 The only thing I'll say on that is if these numbers that we've been having from 00:30:53.650 --> 00:30:58.450 special elections end up even close next November, 00:30:58.810 --> 00:31:03.310 then the Senate is actually in play, even though it's a really tough year. 00:31:03.950 --> 00:31:07.230 The Senate is maybe in play, but I just... 00:31:07.230 --> 00:31:08.430 It's still a stretch. 00:31:08.970 --> 00:31:17.310 Yeah. Yeah, I'm not going on a limb on the Senate, but I do think definitely the House is, 00:31:17.750 --> 00:31:22.890 I mean, you want the best sign of how bad it is in the House? 00:31:23.210 --> 00:31:24.950 Look at the people leaving now. 00:31:26.170 --> 00:31:32.990 And they're heading for the exits early because the following grift gets a lot 00:31:32.990 --> 00:31:37.090 more difficult if you've got a lot of people heading for the exits at the same 00:31:37.090 --> 00:31:39.450 time. So you want to be first there. 00:31:39.570 --> 00:31:41.650 Okay. All right. To be doing that. 00:31:43.190 --> 00:31:47.490 Well, somebody mentioned, like, the reason you want to be first, 00:31:47.750 --> 00:31:50.750 especially if you're a Republican leaving right now in the House where it's 00:31:50.750 --> 00:31:56.730 so narrow, you don't want to be the one person who leaves who hands the majority to the Democrats. 00:31:57.430 --> 00:31:58.390 Right. Yeah. 00:31:58.610 --> 00:32:01.410 So you only got a room for a couple of people to go. 00:32:01.430 --> 00:32:06.050 You've got, you know, you've got only a couple of, like, medical emergencies 00:32:06.050 --> 00:32:07.690 away from that right now anyway. 00:32:08.290 --> 00:32:12.730 Right. Okay, so just to be clear, my prediction is Democrats take the House, 00:32:12.930 --> 00:32:16.390 but Republicans stay in the Senate. Is yours the same? 00:32:17.400 --> 00:32:19.820 Because so far you haven't actually made a prediction one way or another. 00:32:19.880 --> 00:32:25.500 No, no, no. No, no, no. The Democrats think the House, the Senate doesn't change hands. Okay. 00:32:25.880 --> 00:32:31.520 Okay, we're in agreement. Next up, also from Ed, will Congress direct reversal 00:32:31.520 --> 00:32:34.320 of any tariffs emplaced by Trump? 00:32:34.760 --> 00:32:36.000 Not 2026. 00:32:36.560 --> 00:32:40.500 Yeah, I'm going to say no. No. 00:32:40.880 --> 00:32:44.880 It's just, Congress is going to do nothing. 00:32:46.080 --> 00:32:48.820 Mike Johnson is Sorry. 00:32:48.900 --> 00:32:50.660 Not nothing. Nothing significant. 00:32:51.080 --> 00:32:54.480 No, they're not going to do anything, Sam. Mike Johnson is useless. 00:32:54.480 --> 00:32:56.300 They'll rename some damn post offices. 00:32:56.760 --> 00:32:59.680 Okay, but that's not doing anything, Sam. 00:33:01.300 --> 00:33:07.620 This is why I say there will be bills passed and signed but there will not be 00:33:07.620 --> 00:33:12.480 any significant policy changes because of those bills passed and signed. 00:33:13.460 --> 00:33:17.440 like like they may they'll kick the can down the road a few more times on budget 00:33:17.440 --> 00:33:20.580 stuff for instance you know that kind of stuff will happen i think there's a 00:33:20.580 --> 00:33:21.580 question on that later too, 00:33:24.080 --> 00:33:29.600 so so no to this question um and 00:33:29.600 --> 00:33:33.800 same thing will congress take steps to preserve the affordable care act. 00:33:34.880 --> 00:33:36.100 They're not going to do anything. 00:33:36.400 --> 00:33:41.740 Yeah, I will agree on that. I mean, that's one that may get a little bit more 00:33:41.740 --> 00:33:45.480 pressure. And we know there have been some Republicans already breaking from Trump. 00:33:46.260 --> 00:33:50.340 Well, actually, Trump himself has gone wishy-washy on that a couple of times. 00:33:50.800 --> 00:33:51.700 Trump has broken from himself. 00:33:52.820 --> 00:33:53.860 He has. 00:33:54.040 --> 00:33:56.340 Which is a normal thing. It's a normal event. Yes. 00:33:57.000 --> 00:34:04.040 Yeah. I mean, so, I don't know. But I'm going to say no just because it's an election year. 00:34:04.040 --> 00:34:09.680 Can I just say, listen, I'm going to say no, because the Republicans love sticking it to people. 00:34:10.500 --> 00:34:10.620 Yeah. 00:34:11.120 --> 00:34:16.340 I mean, they really love this part. Especially those people that don't deserve 00:34:16.340 --> 00:34:18.340 any of this fucking government help shit. 00:34:18.880 --> 00:34:19.440 Right. 00:34:19.620 --> 00:34:21.760 Except corporations. Those deserve it. 00:34:22.340 --> 00:34:28.400 Okay, next up. Will Congress enact any of the Republican alternatives to the Affordable Care Act? 00:34:29.160 --> 00:34:29.780 Fuck no! 00:34:30.960 --> 00:34:34.180 Specifically expanded health savings accounts and some sort of check set. 00:34:34.260 --> 00:34:37.020 They're not going to do anything. They're not going to fucking do anything. 00:34:37.280 --> 00:34:38.640 These assholes are going to do anything. 00:34:38.840 --> 00:34:43.600 I'll agree that was from Ed. And then Bruce has one that sort of overlaps with Ed's. 00:34:43.700 --> 00:34:46.380 Will Congress preserve the ACA subsidies for the middle class? 00:34:46.600 --> 00:34:48.400 I think we've covered that already. No. 00:34:48.520 --> 00:34:49.940 Fuck the middle class. No. 00:34:50.840 --> 00:34:51.100 Okay. 00:34:51.240 --> 00:34:54.280 You know, the Republicans should be, you know, if the Republicans want to be 00:34:54.280 --> 00:34:56.920 honest, they should really have a shirt that's just, you know, 00:34:57.020 --> 00:34:59.560 Trump should come out and just say, fuck the middle class. 00:34:59.780 --> 00:35:03.660 Although he kind of said it at some point, but, you know, not exactly in those words. 00:35:04.820 --> 00:35:09.860 And now we're into other. From Bruce, will there be another government shutdown? 00:35:11.040 --> 00:35:11.480 Yes. 00:35:12.180 --> 00:35:19.940 I'm going to say no. You think no? I think they will just very quietly extend things. 00:35:20.120 --> 00:35:21.380 Kick the can down the road. I'm not going to talk you out of it. 00:35:21.520 --> 00:35:25.380 I'm not going to talk you out of it. But yeah, I think for sure there will be 00:35:25.380 --> 00:35:27.000 another government shutdown. Yes. 00:35:27.680 --> 00:35:30.120 Okay. Since longer than the last one? 00:35:30.860 --> 00:35:31.300 Yes. 00:35:32.000 --> 00:35:37.480 Okay. Another shutdown and longer than the last one, which was already a record 00:35:37.480 --> 00:35:39.080 breaker. So you're predicting it. 00:35:39.640 --> 00:35:41.840 Are you stuck on your prediction? 00:35:43.640 --> 00:35:48.240 I'm going to stick with no shutdown because I think they will just quietly, 00:35:48.500 --> 00:35:52.780 Democrats and Republicans, agree to kick the can down the road with almost no drama. 00:35:53.100 --> 00:35:54.920 Okay. And you're firm on your position. 00:35:55.360 --> 00:35:55.740 Yes. 00:35:56.000 --> 00:35:59.920 Okay. The reason I'm saying this is because the last time that there was a congressional 00:35:59.920 --> 00:36:04.560 shift like this, okay, with Trump in power, the shutdown wasn't lifted until 00:36:04.560 --> 00:36:05.760 the Democrats took office. 00:36:06.280 --> 00:36:12.640 And if this is the case, again, that they're going to lose, the Republicans aren't going to do shit. 00:36:13.040 --> 00:36:16.400 They're going to say, fuck this, it's not our case. And they're going to dump 00:36:16.400 --> 00:36:20.400 it until the Democrats get into power to cut the deal. 00:36:21.460 --> 00:36:25.300 So the next time this comes up is only like March, though, right? 00:36:27.400 --> 00:36:30.840 Well, I know, well, we have that, but I think. 00:36:30.840 --> 00:36:32.040 Or not even January. 00:36:32.660 --> 00:36:35.120 Doesn't this run out again just in a few weeks? Yes, it's in January, 00:36:35.220 --> 00:36:39.780 but I don't think it's going to be now. I'm going to think they're going to do a kick the can. 00:36:40.680 --> 00:36:43.900 They're probably going to do a kick the can in January, but then it's going 00:36:43.900 --> 00:36:45.300 to get to the next kick the can. 00:36:45.620 --> 00:36:47.640 Because they'll kick the can until after the election. 00:36:48.260 --> 00:36:50.180 They're going to kick the, no, I don't. 00:36:51.450 --> 00:36:53.850 They didn't do it now. They only got two months. 00:36:54.530 --> 00:36:59.730 Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So you think they're going to kick the can multiple times over the year? 00:36:59.910 --> 00:37:04.030 Yes. And then one of those is going to get stuck. And the one that gets stuck, 00:37:04.070 --> 00:37:06.990 then it's going to be shut down until after the election. 00:37:08.830 --> 00:37:14.070 Well, okay. And you're thinking probably not even not after the election, 00:37:14.130 --> 00:37:16.330 but probably all the way through the end of the year. 00:37:16.870 --> 00:37:19.110 Yes. Let the Democrats fix it in January. 00:37:19.490 --> 00:37:19.890 Yes. 00:37:20.610 --> 00:37:29.710 Okay. Yes. okay um and one last question and this is me adding one on epstein 00:37:29.710 --> 00:37:34.330 again we talked about epstein and trump will there be epstein file impacts on 00:37:34.330 --> 00:37:38.530 other politicians additional beyond what we've already seen. 00:37:38.530 --> 00:37:40.830 I don't know. 00:37:40.830 --> 00:37:44.070 And then i've got one later on for other famous people who aren't politicians 00:37:44.070 --> 00:37:45.150 but this is just politicians, 00:37:47.910 --> 00:37:52.410 Like, do we get definitive proof of Bill Clinton doing bad things? 00:37:52.790 --> 00:37:53.930 I don't know anybody. 00:37:54.190 --> 00:37:54.450 Some senator? 00:37:54.650 --> 00:38:00.310 There's only been like one mention of, millions of pages, been like one mention 00:38:00.310 --> 00:38:06.630 of Bill Clinton and all this whole thing so far that they've come up with. I'm going to go with yes. 00:38:07.250 --> 00:38:07.730 Okay. 00:38:08.070 --> 00:38:10.650 Somebody else. That's somebody else. I don't know who, though. 00:38:11.130 --> 00:38:12.250 Some other politician. 00:38:12.750 --> 00:38:16.290 Yeah. Somebody, some other politician will get a snarl. 00:38:16.290 --> 00:38:17.950 And just to be clear on definition. 00:38:18.230 --> 00:38:23.910 And I will define by politician. It can be either somebody that was in office or is in office. 00:38:24.170 --> 00:38:26.230 I was about to clarify that. Yes. 00:38:26.310 --> 00:38:26.510 Okay. 00:38:26.750 --> 00:38:30.550 So it doesn't have to be somebody currently holding office. It could be somebody 00:38:30.550 --> 00:38:33.570 like Bill Clinton who's been out of office for a long time. 00:38:34.110 --> 00:38:40.830 And it could be presidents, senators, congresspeople, governors, 00:38:41.750 --> 00:38:44.790 all kinds of things. Right. Like politician, general. 00:38:45.250 --> 00:38:52.370 Right. Okay. Anyway, I will say for the record, I do not believe my wife is in the Epstein files. 00:38:53.610 --> 00:38:57.230 So that's one of your, okay, I'm going to, I'm going to pad my stats and I'm 00:38:57.230 --> 00:39:01.970 going to, I'm going to, I'm going to agree that your wife is not in the Epstein files. 00:39:02.390 --> 00:39:04.810 Okay. Because she is a politician, of course. 00:39:04.970 --> 00:39:09.910 Yes. And I, and I will make the bold prediction that your wife will not be in the Epstein files. 00:39:10.410 --> 00:39:14.030 Oh, and, and I, it is an election year for my wife as well. 00:39:14.150 --> 00:39:19.330 So I would be remiss if I did not make the prediction that she will win re-election. 00:39:19.930 --> 00:39:24.230 Okay, I will also predict that Brandy's going to win re-election. 00:39:24.590 --> 00:39:30.050 Yes. Like, yes. I would be in trouble if I predicted anything else. 00:39:30.350 --> 00:39:32.570 Okay, so this weren't the politics, okay? 00:39:32.730 --> 00:39:37.350 And by the way, I'm not changing my prediction because I do think it's the way. 00:39:37.350 --> 00:39:39.870 Does my condo board election count as politics? 00:39:40.670 --> 00:39:41.890 Sure, why not? 00:39:42.570 --> 00:39:46.410 Okay, all right, we have a condo board election coming up January 9th. 00:39:46.470 --> 00:39:50.210 Okay, so it's going to be in 2026. We've never had this before that it's aligned 00:39:50.210 --> 00:39:54.850 with this, with the, you know, like with the prediction show in this way. Okay. 00:39:55.390 --> 00:39:59.910 So, Sam, do you predict I will be president of the condo board again in January? 00:40:00.070 --> 00:40:02.870 Wait, you're actually running to try to get it back? 00:40:03.310 --> 00:40:03.710 Yes. 00:40:04.230 --> 00:40:07.830 Like, because you quit in disgust and were like, I'm done with this. 00:40:07.830 --> 00:40:13.110 Yes, but, you know, the new people that came in basically are, 00:40:13.270 --> 00:40:18.830 my summary is that they are running a Trumpian playbook. 00:40:19.050 --> 00:40:28.530 And so basically, I am at my disgust right now at their basically just self-serving craziness. 00:40:28.930 --> 00:40:30.750 I'm running again. 00:40:31.270 --> 00:40:38.290 So, will I win? Will I win my seat again? By the way, I actually won the election last time. 00:40:38.570 --> 00:40:42.550 I didn't lose in the last election, by the way. I won. 00:40:43.590 --> 00:40:48.270 But I quit in part because of all the shit that was going on. I was sick. 00:40:48.470 --> 00:40:51.650 One, I was sick. I was like, I don't want to deal with this shit right now. So I quit. 00:40:52.910 --> 00:40:56.470 I'm running again. So I did win the last election, but I resigned. 00:40:56.850 --> 00:40:59.950 To properly analyze this, I need to know the polling. 00:41:00.990 --> 00:41:02.850 No polls. I have no idea. 00:41:03.950 --> 00:41:08.850 Man, like, do you have a sense? 00:41:08.850 --> 00:41:13.070 I can say this, that there is one thing, like, right now, which may give you 00:41:13.070 --> 00:41:15.650 an indication that this is— I was just reading these. 00:41:15.730 --> 00:41:19.970 I just got these documents today. And one of the bizarre things that they did 00:41:19.970 --> 00:41:26.050 is, and I'm checking whether it's probably not legal, they expanded the size of the board, okay? 00:41:27.150 --> 00:41:31.150 And now, here's the thing about the expansion of the size of the board. 00:41:31.610 --> 00:41:34.610 There are now seven candidates, okay? 00:41:34.770 --> 00:41:35.050 Uh-huh. 00:41:35.410 --> 00:41:39.530 But there are, they, it used to be three board seats, but they expanded it to 00:41:39.530 --> 00:41:49.590 five board seats. So the odds of me winning are high based on that information. 00:41:50.030 --> 00:41:55.330 Okay. I was going to ask, are other voters expressing their discontent and upset 00:41:55.330 --> 00:41:56.630 about what they're doing? 00:41:56.910 --> 00:41:59.570 Yes. I'll go ahead and predict you win. 00:42:00.330 --> 00:42:03.930 You're going to predict I win? Okay. All right. I'm going to abstain from making 00:42:03.930 --> 00:42:06.570 a prediction on my own election. That kind of feels icky. 00:42:07.130 --> 00:42:12.090 it's like i i i every time i go and i make a prediction on my own shit i'm always 00:42:12.090 --> 00:42:17.010 you know create i don't know creating my own problems so there you go all right okay. 00:42:17.010 --> 00:42:20.170 And that brings us to the end of the politics section. 00:42:20.170 --> 00:42:22.890 Okay should we take a break and. 00:42:22.890 --> 00:42:27.670 Just from my memory of previous shows we actually wrapped up politics faster 00:42:27.670 --> 00:42:31.850 than we usually do despite your like oh my god speed it up speed it up speed 00:42:31.850 --> 00:42:32.850 it up comments at the beginning. 00:42:32.850 --> 00:42:37.030 No no no the reason i said it was Because if we did go at the pace that we were 00:42:37.030 --> 00:42:40.350 going at first, we weren't going to make this the longest show in the history 00:42:40.350 --> 00:42:43.130 of mankind. So, yes, I did speed it up. 00:42:44.150 --> 00:42:49.030 We'll spend a lot more time talking about the European predictions in the international 00:42:49.030 --> 00:42:51.030 section later, I'm sure. Okay. 00:42:52.010 --> 00:42:57.210 okay it is time for a break unless you have any more politics stuff you want 00:42:57.210 --> 00:42:59.650 to throw in last minute that we have not already covered. 00:43:03.110 --> 00:43:06.470 Let me see do I want to throw in an extra prediction, 00:43:08.150 --> 00:43:15.810 any extra predictions okay I'll throw one in yes I'll throw one in this may 00:43:15.810 --> 00:43:20.750 fuck my stats up I'm going to say that Mike Johnson doesn't make it at speaker 00:43:20.750 --> 00:43:22.750 until the end of the year Oh. 00:43:23.870 --> 00:43:29.410 How's that? I will say he will. He will be speaker through the end of the year. 00:43:29.610 --> 00:43:36.910 I know that's an aggressive prediction, but there are circumstances that could really force his hand. 00:43:36.910 --> 00:43:40.530 There are several different circumstances. I mean, one, we talked about already, 00:43:40.650 --> 00:43:46.490 the right people leave unexpectedly and the Democrats actually take the majority. 00:43:46.490 --> 00:43:49.390 um the other is we get enough 00:43:49.390 --> 00:43:52.090 republicans unhappy that they try to kick him 00:43:52.090 --> 00:43:54.870 out again so far there does not seem to 00:43:54.870 --> 00:43:59.690 be appetite for that mtg mtg was like asking around about that just a few weeks 00:43:59.690 --> 00:44:05.450 ago and did not find support for it um you know another is you know something 00:44:05.450 --> 00:44:11.110 happens to him you know as a scandal whatever like you know but yeah i'm gonna 00:44:11.110 --> 00:44:14.430 say he he makes it through the year Okay. Okay. 00:44:14.970 --> 00:44:17.950 Time for a break. The first break here is an Apple Dream. 00:44:18.510 --> 00:44:24.810 It's Apple Dream 36 making its premiere on the show. Here we go. 00:45:06.770 --> 00:45:13.570 Okay, we are back, and it is time for international. First batch of questions is from Ed. 00:45:14.830 --> 00:45:21.730 What additional EU nations will elect far-right presidents or other major leaders? 00:45:23.050 --> 00:45:26.530 Hmm. I'm going to say nobody right now. 00:45:26.910 --> 00:45:27.530 Nobody additional? 00:45:27.530 --> 00:45:33.090 As a matter of fact, no, they have actually been on the losing in a few recently. 00:45:34.390 --> 00:45:37.310 Bulgaria just had one recently where they lost. 00:45:38.310 --> 00:45:44.290 I think the pattern in a bunch of these has been they've been gaining some ground 00:45:44.290 --> 00:45:49.210 in parliaments, but not enough to actually win power. 00:45:49.210 --> 00:45:53.470 And in some places, like you said, they've been losing ground, too. 00:45:53.610 --> 00:45:59.310 But even when they have been gaining ground, it hasn't been quite enough so 00:45:59.310 --> 00:46:05.050 that, you know, a coalition of the other parties is able to push it. 00:46:05.150 --> 00:46:10.670 Even in a few cases where they've ended up like the biggest party in some area, 00:46:11.010 --> 00:46:14.430 all of the other parties have banded together to keep them out of power. 00:46:14.430 --> 00:46:19.350 There was an article that I was just reading about the Bulgaria election where 00:46:19.350 --> 00:46:24.770 they actually, they went, they, and I do think that the countries that are closer 00:46:24.770 --> 00:46:26.630 to the border with Russia, 00:46:26.910 --> 00:46:37.930 they, they, they have been far more aggressive at being anti the far right crazies 00:46:37.930 --> 00:46:39.870 that love Putin kind of stuff. 00:46:39.870 --> 00:46:42.790 OK, well, they see it up close and 00:46:42.790 --> 00:46:47.510 they they they are ones that are not definitely liking any of that shit. 00:46:48.550 --> 00:46:56.030 And what I saw and I the heck there we go. Let me see. I'm pulling up the story. 00:46:56.270 --> 00:47:02.430 Here it is. This was just yesterday. Bulgarians joined the euro and eject their 00:47:02.430 --> 00:47:03.470 government, basically. 00:47:03.790 --> 00:47:09.470 OK, huge anti-corruption protests provide a chance for reform. So basically, they... 00:47:10.300 --> 00:47:15.280 You know, they pushed away a party that was, like, kind of, like, 00:47:15.300 --> 00:47:16.720 aligned with all of this shit. 00:47:16.780 --> 00:47:21.940 And they decided, fuck that. And no, we want to be closer to the EU, not less. 00:47:22.160 --> 00:47:27.060 By the way, you know, I know that the UK is not in the EU anymore. 00:47:27.060 --> 00:47:31.060 But there was a recent poll that showed, like, right now how much support, 00:47:31.240 --> 00:47:37.240 how much, hey, did we, the question to the British people, did we fuck up by 00:47:37.240 --> 00:47:39.400 leaving the EU right now? 00:47:39.500 --> 00:47:39.680 Basically, yes. 00:47:39.680 --> 00:47:42.720 Basically i don't think the answer is but yeah not those 00:47:42.720 --> 00:47:47.920 words but that was basic that was the basic uh gist of it it's north of 70 percent 00:47:47.920 --> 00:47:54.080 of of people in the uk right now saying oh my god we fucked up so bad north 00:47:54.080 --> 00:48:00.360 of 70 percent right i mean it's so fucked up. 00:48:00.360 --> 00:48:05.120 Okay by the way in case it wasn't obvious we're in it we are in the international 00:48:05.120 --> 00:48:07.440 section now in the europe subsection. 00:48:08.140 --> 00:48:10.260 Okay, next time. You know, every time you say the international section, 00:48:10.280 --> 00:48:14.800 all it brings back to me are flashbacks of my beloved program that was canceled at CNN. 00:48:15.740 --> 00:48:17.100 Do you remember what it was called? 00:48:18.400 --> 00:48:21.780 The International Hour, was it? Yes, that's correct. I remember Christie Brinkley 00:48:21.780 --> 00:48:23.340 replaced it. That's the important part. 00:48:23.340 --> 00:48:27.080 Yes, that, yeah. It was on from 10 a.m. to like 12. 00:48:27.460 --> 00:48:27.980 House of Style. 00:48:28.080 --> 00:48:31.280 Whatever. They replaced it with fucking House of Style. 00:48:31.440 --> 00:48:36.360 I swear to God, I've never, I see these people right now punching TVs and wanted to do that. 00:48:36.360 --> 00:48:41.320 I never felt more the urge of wanting to take a baseball bat to my TV than having 00:48:41.320 --> 00:48:47.520 my fucking program replaced by fucking House of Style with Christy Brinkley. 00:48:47.680 --> 00:48:55.580 I will say, however, even after that swap, if you compare CNN now to CNN then... 00:48:56.750 --> 00:48:59.410 It's, listen, it's sad. 00:49:01.950 --> 00:49:06.770 Listen, they're all sad. It's a reason why I, for a long, long, 00:49:06.890 --> 00:49:09.630 long, long time, don't watch any. You only watch Bloomberg. 00:49:10.150 --> 00:49:10.250 Yes. 00:49:10.370 --> 00:49:17.290 Yes, that's it. It's the only, you know what, it's, it's, it's, why? 00:49:17.550 --> 00:49:25.010 It's wonky. We talk about endogenous factors and, you know, exogenous economic 00:49:25.010 --> 00:49:30.510 shocks and, you know, beta of stocks and, you know, that kind of shit. 00:49:30.510 --> 00:49:32.730 And I'm like, this is what I'm here for. 00:49:32.950 --> 00:49:38.050 OK, you know, the under, you know, all the underlying factors that affect the 00:49:38.050 --> 00:49:41.250 CPI and how it gets revised and blah, blah, blah. 00:49:41.450 --> 00:49:45.790 And that kind of shit, you know, real stuff. OK, you know, not. 00:49:46.810 --> 00:49:50.690 Hey, didn't we piss off some guy in Indiana? Next. 00:49:51.410 --> 00:49:58.890 Yeah. So, you know, I found in recent years, I have found MSNBC the most watchable, 00:49:59.090 --> 00:50:02.790 but they have declined significantly in the last year as well. 00:50:03.110 --> 00:50:09.350 The number of shows on that network that I find watchable is like less than 00:50:09.350 --> 00:50:12.170 half of what it was a year and a half ago. 00:50:12.170 --> 00:50:20.010 You know, it's just and and of those, there are only a couple that I think are 00:50:20.010 --> 00:50:24.930 actually good, you know, and it's just I don't know. 00:50:25.070 --> 00:50:32.970 All of these places are under the same sort of financial pressures and ratings changing ratings. 00:50:33.610 --> 00:50:34.750 They're chasing ratings. 00:50:35.530 --> 00:50:42.890 I know that my type of TV news show does not at all accrue ratings. 00:50:43.210 --> 00:50:47.170 Right. But they're chasing ratings. They're part of conglomerates that have 00:50:47.170 --> 00:50:51.170 to make Trump happy because of mergers and all this other crap. 00:50:51.470 --> 00:50:55.850 Like, we've got all kinds of factors that are at play that just, 00:50:56.070 --> 00:51:01.030 like, the overall quality of that kind of stuff is declining. 00:51:01.030 --> 00:51:05.010 And I feel like there's got to be an opportunity in there somewhere. 00:51:05.070 --> 00:51:10.790 But at the same time, the reason it's it's all declining for a reason. The economics are bad. 00:51:11.230 --> 00:51:16.110 The economics are bad, especially of linear any linear broadcast media. 00:51:16.890 --> 00:51:21.410 I mean, the only reason why Bloomberg can make money at it is because of all 00:51:21.410 --> 00:51:25.690 the revenue sources that they they've got, not definitely ratings or any of 00:51:25.690 --> 00:51:30.030 that stuff. And because Michael Bloomberg decides that that's what you know. 00:51:30.030 --> 00:51:35.510 But this is why clearly we are going to fill that gap and, you know, 00:51:35.670 --> 00:51:40.550 we will have subscribers by the millions by the end of the year. 00:51:40.750 --> 00:51:42.170 Is that a prediction, Yvonne? 00:51:42.950 --> 00:51:44.590 We'll save that for later. 00:51:44.830 --> 00:51:46.030 We'll save that for later. Okay. 00:51:46.270 --> 00:51:47.710 We'll save that for later. 00:51:48.190 --> 00:51:49.630 On international predictions. Okay. 00:51:49.850 --> 00:51:53.190 Will Sarkozy be—oh, I didn't predict the far-right presidents. 00:51:53.210 --> 00:51:56.070 I will agree with you. I will agree with you. No additional. 00:51:56.450 --> 00:51:59.910 Okay. Will Sarkozy still be in office at the end of the year? 00:51:59.930 --> 00:52:04.390 I don't even know what's up with their current election cycles and all that. Do you know? 00:52:04.450 --> 00:52:07.770 That I recall, because remember, they've got the presidency and they've got—I 00:52:07.770 --> 00:52:12.850 don't remember if it's premiership—you know, because you've got the—is it prime—it's 00:52:12.850 --> 00:52:13.810 It's not a prime minister. 00:52:14.190 --> 00:52:15.730 President. It's not a prime minister. 00:52:16.010 --> 00:52:20.830 Yeah, it's another name for that role. I mean, Sarkozy is president. 00:52:21.030 --> 00:52:23.270 And that term is a long term. 00:52:23.270 --> 00:52:24.550 It's a five-year term. 00:52:24.990 --> 00:52:25.430 Yeah. 00:52:26.610 --> 00:52:28.210 He started in 2017. 00:52:28.590 --> 00:52:32.210 It's not Sarkozy. It's Macron. What are we talking about? Yeah, 00:52:32.330 --> 00:52:33.430 Sarkozy's been out of office. 00:52:33.430 --> 00:52:38.110 Hey, I just read Ed's question. It's my... 00:52:38.610 --> 00:52:42.930 I'm like, yeah, Ed, sorry. Make a live correction. Yeah, no, 00:52:43.030 --> 00:52:45.990 Sarkozy's in jail, if I think correctly now. 00:52:46.710 --> 00:52:49.530 Then he got convicted of something, didn't he? 00:52:50.150 --> 00:52:55.130 Yes, he did. He's a French former politician and convicted criminal who served 00:52:55.130 --> 00:52:58.110 as president from 2007 to 2012. 00:52:59.210 --> 00:53:04.070 Right. I'm not sure if he's still in jail. I'll check that while you check the 00:53:04.070 --> 00:53:05.410 situation of the current president. 00:53:05.510 --> 00:53:07.090 Let me, okay. Hang on. 00:53:10.270 --> 00:53:13.230 Let's see. When is Macron's term ends? 00:53:15.610 --> 00:53:17.350 His term. Wow, he's only 48. 00:53:17.350 --> 00:53:23.790 He entered jail October 2025 for a five-year sentence. So he's still in jail as of right now. 00:53:24.430 --> 00:53:30.990 He assumed office in 2017, so he's president of France. When does the term end? 00:53:31.590 --> 00:53:35.630 Well, they're five-year terms, so that would mean 2027 he'd be up. 00:53:36.310 --> 00:53:37.690 Because he's on his second term. 00:53:37.830 --> 00:53:40.850 Right, 2027. So it won't be this year. So he will be president this year. 00:53:41.930 --> 00:53:45.190 Nothing will derail that prematurely? 00:53:45.210 --> 00:53:46.530 I don't think so, no. 00:53:47.370 --> 00:53:52.510 I'm going to agree. He will be in office at the end of the year. Not Sarkozy. 00:53:52.930 --> 00:53:53.830 Not Sarkozy. 00:53:53.930 --> 00:53:57.130 Marcon. Mark, Mark, Macron, Macron. 00:53:57.430 --> 00:54:02.290 Not Marcon, not Marcon, not Macaron either. I like macaroons. 00:54:03.050 --> 00:54:05.430 I don't like them. I don't know. 00:54:05.990 --> 00:54:10.230 There are, there are, you know, acquired taste. 00:54:10.770 --> 00:54:16.250 Okay. I mean, I've had them. I just, I'm not, I'm not like spitting them out 00:54:16.250 --> 00:54:21.010 or anything. I just like, I look at them and I'm like, could I have something else, please? Yeah. 00:54:22.350 --> 00:54:23.710 Have some other kind of code. Very good. 00:54:23.830 --> 00:54:25.650 We'll make sure no macaroons for you. Okay. 00:54:28.130 --> 00:54:34.070 Will the EU take definitive steps to protect Ukraine above and beyond what they 00:54:34.070 --> 00:54:35.750 do have done this year, obviously? 00:54:36.670 --> 00:54:39.830 And you can debate what definitive means. This is from Advin. 00:54:42.170 --> 00:54:47.550 Will there be a long-term plan for the security of Ukraine, basically? 00:54:47.910 --> 00:54:51.850 Is that, I mean, would that be a fair way of, by a step? 00:54:51.850 --> 00:54:58.390 Yeah, I guess, I guess it's like, is it enough to sort of like make a difference 00:54:58.390 --> 00:54:59.590 to the facts on the ground? 00:54:59.770 --> 00:55:02.870 Right now, they give them money and weapons and things. 00:55:02.870 --> 00:55:11.090 The thing is, is there something more like long term, like of a commitment in 00:55:11.090 --> 00:55:14.950 terms of security of Ukraine or. 00:55:14.950 --> 00:55:18.330 Actual European troops on the ground in country? 00:55:18.430 --> 00:55:21.310 You know what? I think that right now this thing. 00:55:21.470 --> 00:55:22.330 Or air support. 00:55:22.810 --> 00:55:29.510 No, I think this thing's going to muddle on. There's no peace deal. There's no whatever. 00:55:29.830 --> 00:55:31.790 There's no nothing. This thing just muddles on. 00:55:31.790 --> 00:55:34.010 Specific questions about some of those things later, but yeah. 00:55:34.290 --> 00:55:38.890 Well, I will go that I don't think that the Europeans will be able to agree 00:55:38.890 --> 00:55:40.650 on a framework like this here. 00:55:40.830 --> 00:55:44.790 Part of the big problem is the problem that you've got that you deal with the 00:55:44.790 --> 00:55:45.870 fact that you've got Trump in the White House. 00:55:45.870 --> 00:55:48.630 Like Hungary. Well, you got Trump and you got Hungary. 00:55:48.970 --> 00:55:54.930 And Hungary, yeah. But I know they were doing certain moves to like be able 00:55:54.930 --> 00:56:00.350 to do things without Hungarian approval. Approval, yeah. 00:56:01.390 --> 00:56:06.950 Yeah, I would agree. It's the whole definitive steps thing. 00:56:07.050 --> 00:56:12.970 I think it's not going to be anything dramatically different than what they've 00:56:12.970 --> 00:56:15.970 been doing, which brings us to the next question. 00:56:16.090 --> 00:56:19.490 Will the Ukraine War of Aggression by Russia reach a ceasefile and peace plan? 00:56:19.650 --> 00:56:25.330 I'm going to say no. I think we're going to have the continued status quo, 00:56:25.330 --> 00:56:27.310 basically, for all of next year. 00:56:28.190 --> 00:56:34.910 I don't think anything substantial really changes with what's going on in Ukraine 00:56:34.910 --> 00:56:40.850 until either Putin, Trump, or both are gone. 00:56:41.370 --> 00:56:45.230 And even then, stalemate is the default. Right. 00:56:46.130 --> 00:56:53.630 You know, these wars, like when, I think, remember, I think the Iran-Iraq War, right? 00:56:54.090 --> 00:56:54.570 Yeah. 00:56:55.030 --> 00:57:03.870 Had dragged on forever, okay? And I can't remember what event, 00:57:04.410 --> 00:57:07.150 some economic event, or something just happened where all of a sudden it came 00:57:07.150 --> 00:57:09.850 to an abrupt end. As many of these do. 00:57:10.310 --> 00:57:13.050 Like, if you think about the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, 00:57:13.050 --> 00:57:16.490 for example, it seemed like it would never end. And then all of a sudden, 00:57:16.730 --> 00:57:21.730 it just all fell apart in like no time at all. 00:57:22.090 --> 00:57:26.090 But I don't think that the Russian economy is at a point for that. 00:57:26.610 --> 00:57:31.310 Yeah, things like that often end up like things that are basically wars of attrition 00:57:31.310 --> 00:57:34.250 often just go and go and go. 00:57:34.370 --> 00:57:39.430 And then all of a sudden, kaboom, everything falls apart in one direction or the other. 00:57:39.610 --> 00:57:42.930 But I don't think it's 2026. I don't think 2026 is the year for that. 00:57:43.950 --> 00:57:44.390 Okay. 00:57:45.830 --> 00:57:49.130 Okay, next up, we're moving away from Europe to the Middle East. 00:57:49.790 --> 00:57:54.210 Question number one from Ed, will Bibi finally go on trial? 00:57:54.670 --> 00:58:00.530 And actually, like, my question on that is, isn't he already on trial? 00:58:00.890 --> 00:58:03.010 Aren't there proceedings already in progress? 00:58:04.270 --> 00:58:06.010 Okay, now, now, now, now. 00:58:06.010 --> 00:58:10.970 Like, whether or not the proceedings get to the end is a different question, but. 00:58:13.750 --> 00:58:16.070 I haven't been keeping up on. 00:58:16.190 --> 00:58:21.410 Because I just brought up a story from December 26th, so a couple days ago. 00:58:21.750 --> 00:58:24.270 That says— The trial is ongoing. 00:58:24.690 --> 00:58:30.230 Yeah. The December 26th article that I'm looking at from Israel Today says, 00:58:30.670 --> 00:58:35.030 yet testimony heard this week in the Jerusalem District Court has intensified 00:58:35.030 --> 00:58:36.530 claims, blah, blah, blah. So the trial is ongoing. 00:58:37.110 --> 00:58:42.830 Trial is ongoing, yeah. So I guess the better question is, is there a resolution to any of these? 00:58:43.030 --> 00:58:45.610 Does he get a verdict in any trial? 00:58:45.690 --> 00:58:51.850 I have no knowledge in detail of the process that has to happen, 00:58:51.850 --> 00:58:54.370 you know, for this in Israel. 00:58:54.450 --> 00:59:00.010 But I'm going to just throw a dart into the wall and predict something. 00:59:00.670 --> 00:59:04.690 I'm going to predict that this thing drags on still through 2026 somehow. 00:59:04.690 --> 00:59:10.210 and that there's no final resolution, no final conviction, nothing. It just drags on. 00:59:10.960 --> 00:59:12.140 The process drags on. 00:59:12.860 --> 00:59:18.980 Let me say, I think there might be an initial verdict, but that it will be in 00:59:18.980 --> 00:59:21.860 some sort of appeals process by the end of the year. 00:59:22.000 --> 00:59:28.340 And also, let me just say, I also know absolutely nothing about the Israeli process at play here. 00:59:28.520 --> 00:59:31.660 Yeah, so we're taking a guess. Right now, we're just taking a wild guess. 00:59:31.860 --> 00:59:37.200 Or even the details of these damn cases. Like, apparently there's three separate 00:59:37.200 --> 00:59:39.700 cases against him that are proceeding independently. 00:59:39.700 --> 00:59:43.440 It had to do—wasn't it like the bribery corruption? 00:59:43.640 --> 00:59:48.400 It was like breaches—yeah, here it is. Breach of trust accepting bribes and fraud. Yeah. 00:59:49.040 --> 00:59:52.800 Yeah. So anyway, we have no idea. We're obviously guessing. 00:59:53.440 --> 00:59:58.160 So Yvonne says no verdict at all this year, this coming year. 00:59:58.320 --> 01:00:02.420 I say there will be a preliminary verdict, but it will still be in appeals by the end of the year. 01:00:02.940 --> 01:00:03.040 Okay. 01:00:03.680 --> 01:00:04.100 Okay. 01:00:05.160 --> 01:00:09.240 Next question from Ed. Will Israel absorb most or all of Palestine? 01:00:09.640 --> 01:00:11.720 And haven't they already? 01:00:12.140 --> 01:00:14.460 Like, how is this a question for 2026? 01:00:15.000 --> 01:00:20.840 Well, okay. But let's be a little bit more about. Let's be more specific. 01:00:22.040 --> 01:00:28.820 I think more it returns to Gaza. It's just, I mean, is the status quo remaining 01:00:28.820 --> 01:00:30.520 in Gaza right now that we've got? 01:00:30.700 --> 01:00:35.360 Like, which is, I don't even understand. What is the status quo right now? 01:00:35.540 --> 01:00:39.820 The status quo in Gaza is technically we have a ceasefire in place. 01:00:40.140 --> 01:00:44.360 There were supposed to be follow-up talks to finalize things. 01:00:44.620 --> 01:00:46.620 Those have not gone anywhere yet. 01:00:47.080 --> 01:00:52.200 Israel was supposed to fall back behind specific lines. They did not. 01:00:52.460 --> 01:00:54.240 Well, they did, and then they pushed back forward. 01:00:54.680 --> 01:00:59.160 There's theoretically a ceasefire, but there are new attacks of Israel on Gaza 01:00:59.160 --> 01:01:00.540 every week that are reported. 01:01:00.540 --> 01:01:05.440 So, but for some reason, they're not reported as Israel violated the ceasefire, 01:01:05.680 --> 01:01:10.020 but Israel has violated the ceasefire over and over again. 01:01:10.320 --> 01:01:16.040 And they have not technically met all the requirements of the ceasefire. 01:01:16.260 --> 01:01:19.980 However, no one is saying we're 01:01:19.980 --> 01:01:24.620 back with no—everyone's pretending the ceasefire is still fully in place. 01:01:25.800 --> 01:01:29.500 and there's not an active conflict even though there's low-level stuff still 01:01:29.500 --> 01:01:31.180 going on. That's the status quo. 01:01:32.320 --> 01:01:38.940 Well, I mean, they've basically flattened Gaza. I mean, is there anything to conflict with left? 01:01:39.980 --> 01:01:41.460 Little bits here and there. 01:01:41.680 --> 01:01:45.260 Yeah, well, that's the thing. That's it, which is basically what's happening. 01:01:45.380 --> 01:01:46.400 Little bits here and there. 01:01:46.880 --> 01:01:53.480 I mean, I'm going to predict, like Ukraine, this is a status quo kind of thing. 01:01:53.600 --> 01:01:59.360 And the situation at the end of 2026 will be very similar to the situation at the beginning in Gaza. 01:02:00.160 --> 01:02:06.460 And in the West Bank, if anything, Israel just approved more settlements last 01:02:06.460 --> 01:02:08.340 week. So they will continue. 01:02:08.340 --> 01:02:09.920 I bet it hasn't been going on for a while. 01:02:10.160 --> 01:02:16.120 Yeah, they will continue to eat away on what is controlled by the Palestinians in the West Bank. 01:02:17.100 --> 01:02:20.800 And Gaza will be status quo. That's my prediction for 2016. 01:02:20.800 --> 01:02:27.880 I will predict that during 2026, there will be no Trump resort in Gaza. 01:02:28.580 --> 01:02:33.720 Yeah. Okay. Yes. I will agree with that. That will not happen in 2026. 01:02:33.880 --> 01:02:35.300 The Trump Riviera or whatever. 01:02:35.480 --> 01:02:39.140 Yeah, whatever they were going to do. Trump, Gaza, Riviera. Right. 01:02:39.680 --> 01:02:45.640 I mean, that's one. And I don't think that this entire, like, 01:02:46.300 --> 01:02:50.900 discussion that's been had, that's been had, that, I mean, that's ridiculous 01:02:50.900 --> 01:02:55.540 been had, about basically forcibly relocating all the Palestinians out of Gaza, 01:02:55.680 --> 01:02:57.020 that's not going to go anywhere either. 01:02:57.640 --> 01:03:03.580 Right. I will agree with that as well. They will continue to have such discussions, 01:03:03.820 --> 01:03:05.800 but nothing will come of them. 01:03:05.860 --> 01:03:06.700 Nothing will come of them. 01:03:07.660 --> 01:03:11.520 Okay, from Bruce, will the U.S. bomb Iran again? 01:03:13.900 --> 01:03:17.440 Fuck, it's a tough one. Shit. 01:03:18.420 --> 01:03:19.560 I mean, it's a good bombing. 01:03:20.420 --> 01:03:26.580 I mean, every once in a while, just to satisfy his little push-the-button thing. 01:03:27.240 --> 01:03:31.080 Especially if, like, you know, there's been a new Epstein file release or something 01:03:31.080 --> 01:03:32.380 that he needs to distract from. 01:03:32.380 --> 01:03:33.220 I'm going to say yes. 01:03:34.100 --> 01:03:37.360 I'm going to say no. No in Iran. His attentions are elsewhere. 01:03:37.660 --> 01:03:39.860 And we'll talk about elsewhere in a few minutes. 01:03:40.100 --> 01:03:43.040 Well, yeah, I know. But, you know, Iran's always, you know. 01:03:43.880 --> 01:03:47.680 He keeps circling back through his. I'm going to say yes. 01:03:47.980 --> 01:03:52.420 He likes to circle back through his Rolodex of hate. 01:03:53.520 --> 01:03:54.560 Well, yeah. 01:03:54.560 --> 01:03:58.280 I'm sure he probably has a Rolodex. Do you think Trump has a Rolodex? 01:03:59.060 --> 01:04:02.500 He is stuck in the 80s. Yeah. So quite possibly. 01:04:02.920 --> 01:04:03.180 Yeah. 01:04:03.680 --> 01:04:04.200 Yeah. 01:04:04.280 --> 01:04:05.280 I had a Rolodex. 01:04:06.060 --> 01:04:10.260 I i i had some sort of thing but never a proper rolodex. 01:04:10.260 --> 01:04:14.900 You know we i don't want it to travel agency office i had a rolodex yeah. 01:04:14.900 --> 01:04:18.280 What are the big actual circular. 01:04:18.280 --> 01:04:22.500 Yeah yeah the circular one yeah with all the cards you put in with the yeah yeah because they did. 01:04:22.500 --> 01:04:24.080 Make other models and other shapes. 01:04:24.080 --> 01:04:26.660 No but the circle yeah i'm talking about the circular one where you put the 01:04:26.660 --> 01:04:30.580 cards and you went like through to find like the contacts yeah yeah yeah i had one of those yeah of. 01:04:30.580 --> 01:04:36.420 Course okay next up from Bruce we kind of covered this already but will Israel 01:04:36.420 --> 01:04:38.180 fully withdraw from Gaza hell no. 01:04:38.180 --> 01:04:39.320 Fuck no fuck no. 01:04:40.900 --> 01:04:46.600 Not not not in this lifetime certainly not in 2026 but. 01:04:46.600 --> 01:04:50.940 Not in 2026 i don't know how to say this thing but it's definitely not in 2026. 01:04:50.940 --> 01:04:58.780 Yeah okay will all also from bruce will al-shara still be the president of syria 01:04:58.780 --> 01:05:04.240 this is this guy who was a former jihadi renounced all that like a long 01:05:04.330 --> 01:05:09.650 ago and ended up the leader of Syria. I'm going to say yes. 01:05:10.030 --> 01:05:10.930 I'm going with yes. 01:05:12.130 --> 01:05:17.810 There was a very good front line on him that talked about both his history and 01:05:17.810 --> 01:05:20.310 his first few months as president of Syria. 01:05:20.510 --> 01:05:25.190 He's got a lot of difficulties, but honestly, he seems to be trying. 01:05:25.650 --> 01:05:29.850 There are a few places where he's backslid in terms of some of the minorities 01:05:29.850 --> 01:05:32.170 in Syria and such like that, but... 01:05:32.170 --> 01:05:36.290 But look, compared to where they had been and to what they had before, 01:05:36.450 --> 01:05:40.950 where you've got, you know, with the Assad regime, I mean, he's actually trying out a lot more. 01:05:41.410 --> 01:05:45.230 There was a series of articles recently in The Economist talking about how Assad 01:05:45.230 --> 01:05:48.070 and his entourage are living a life of luxury in Russia. 01:05:48.850 --> 01:05:55.470 Yeah. You know, like right now. But they've also been told that they can't, like, talk to the press. 01:05:55.550 --> 01:05:59.690 They can't do anything public, you know, like go out and like speak and like 01:05:59.690 --> 01:06:05.130 do stuff or whatever but but they they they are living a life of gilded luxury and in russia. 01:06:05.130 --> 01:06:10.470 Is there a good way to jump straight to being an exiled ex-dictator without 01:06:10.470 --> 01:06:13.690 having to be the dictator first because you know sign me up i guess. 01:06:13.690 --> 01:06:20.730 I don't know you want to okay but but but but in russia oh you want to live 01:06:20.730 --> 01:06:23.010 a you want to live a gilded i hear he splits. 01:06:23.010 --> 01:06:25.770 This is time with Abu Dhabi, though. It's not just all Russia. 01:06:26.210 --> 01:06:31.030 True, true, true. It is between Abu Dhabi and Russia. Having been to Russia 01:06:31.030 --> 01:06:35.330 myself, I would not like to make it my primary place of residence. 01:06:38.940 --> 01:06:39.340 Crimea. 01:06:39.720 --> 01:06:44.680 If you were talking about, no, no, no. If you were talking like, you know, we had. 01:06:44.960 --> 01:06:47.260 Crimea is not really Russian, but kind of, you know. 01:06:47.340 --> 01:06:51.540 Because it's occupied. I know, I get that. But if you want to go back to like. 01:06:51.540 --> 01:06:54.980 And it's the tropical place where Russians went to vacation. Not really tropical. 01:06:55.380 --> 01:06:56.260 I'll tell you, listen. 01:06:56.620 --> 01:06:57.360 The closest they get. 01:06:57.940 --> 01:07:03.980 The best one that, the one that I think had the best one of those exiles was 01:07:03.980 --> 01:07:05.800 Duvalier from Haiti. Okay. 01:07:06.020 --> 01:07:07.040 Okay. Where did he go? 01:07:07.080 --> 01:07:08.600 He goes, see, France, okay? 01:07:08.800 --> 01:07:08.960 Okay. 01:07:09.320 --> 01:07:10.880 The south of France, okay? 01:07:11.780 --> 01:07:12.420 That works. 01:07:12.940 --> 01:07:17.480 Yeah. That, okay, that you can sell me on, yes. But I'll skip the dictatorship 01:07:17.480 --> 01:07:19.160 part because I have no interest in that. 01:07:19.420 --> 01:07:22.680 I have no interest in torturing people, arresting them to power, 01:07:22.800 --> 01:07:23.500 whatever, blah, blah, blah. 01:07:23.740 --> 01:07:26.100 But if you're going to put me in exile in the south of France, 01:07:26.320 --> 01:07:31.120 I'm like, okay, I can manage. Even though it sometimes gets colder than I would like. 01:07:31.760 --> 01:07:34.280 But I could live with that. 01:07:34.880 --> 01:07:37.620 Okay. I could see that. 01:07:38.260 --> 01:07:38.340 Yeah. 01:07:38.960 --> 01:07:45.480 Okay. Next up, Asia. From Ed, will China invade Taiwan? 01:07:45.940 --> 01:07:46.420 No. 01:07:46.460 --> 01:07:50.520 Is this the year? Is this the year? I will agree. No. 01:07:51.000 --> 01:07:51.140 No. 01:07:51.660 --> 01:07:54.040 China doesn't want. China would like to. 01:07:54.040 --> 01:08:00.700 China doesn't want the blow. China would like for Taiwan to go and surrender to them today. 01:08:00.880 --> 01:08:01.000 Yes. 01:08:01.740 --> 01:08:04.020 But they don't want the blowback from the war. 01:08:04.420 --> 01:08:04.980 Right. 01:08:05.200 --> 01:08:11.900 They want the fear it instills that they threaten a war, but they don't want the blowback from a war. 01:08:12.160 --> 01:08:21.460 I will agree. Not right now. And then Ed asks, or will Taiwan sign a treaty 01:08:21.460 --> 01:08:25.640 ceding governance to China but ensuring continued democratic government? 01:08:26.820 --> 01:08:30.120 No, no. Well, look how well that's done for Hong Kong. 01:08:30.440 --> 01:08:33.680 Exactly. They can look at Hong Kong. That did not go well. 01:08:35.720 --> 01:08:39.580 And then finally, Ed says, or will it remain at status quo? Yes. 01:08:40.140 --> 01:08:41.020 Everybody's status quo. 01:08:41.340 --> 01:08:47.980 You know, I'm sensing a theme of things remaining status quo in our recent predictions. 01:08:48.400 --> 01:08:50.220 I think this is a year of the status quo. 01:08:51.020 --> 01:08:51.540 Okay. 01:08:52.260 --> 01:08:57.520 Well, yeah. Yeah. But we may get more things named after Trump. 01:08:58.300 --> 01:09:00.020 That will lead to change the status quo. 01:09:00.240 --> 01:09:05.360 And I predicted Trump will be gone by the end of the year. So that obviously wouldn't be status quo. 01:09:05.420 --> 01:09:10.340 Yeah. If that happens, then a lot of these status quo predictions basically 01:09:10.340 --> 01:09:12.600 are, you know, we're going to be in big trouble. 01:09:13.500 --> 01:09:17.360 Because if Trump leaves, clearly China will immediately invade Taiwan, 01:09:17.560 --> 01:09:18.900 thinking J.D. Vance is a pussy. 01:09:19.520 --> 01:09:19.960 Yeah. 01:09:23.330 --> 01:09:28.370 Well, maybe not that one, but other predictions could be impact. 01:09:30.310 --> 01:09:31.610 Okay, North Korea. 01:09:32.150 --> 01:09:33.550 We haven't talked about that in a while. 01:09:33.550 --> 01:09:33.550 And by the way. 01:09:33.650 --> 01:09:38.390 To be clear, she meant a pussy reference. Look, J.D. Vance, J.D. Vance says couches. 01:09:38.410 --> 01:09:41.150 That's very unlike me, by the way. I just came out. 01:09:41.570 --> 01:09:45.930 I know. We're on the theme. By the way, you know, he prefers couches as far 01:09:45.930 --> 01:09:47.850 as information that has been relayed to me. 01:09:48.770 --> 01:09:52.470 You know, that guy who made up the couch thing, which was completely made up, 01:09:52.570 --> 01:09:55.090 by the way. Genius, anyway. Yeah. 01:09:55.590 --> 01:09:56.030 Hey! 01:09:56.710 --> 01:09:59.110 They should have done more of that shit. I'm sorry. 01:09:59.510 --> 01:09:59.790 Yeah. 01:09:59.930 --> 01:10:00.250 Like, you know. 01:10:01.010 --> 01:10:01.570 Anyway. 01:10:02.890 --> 01:10:04.270 Okay. North Korea. 01:10:04.450 --> 01:10:04.850 It sounds plausible. 01:10:05.490 --> 01:10:06.310 It does? 01:10:06.710 --> 01:10:07.010 Yeah. 01:10:07.850 --> 01:10:17.230 North Korea. Yo. The question from Ed is, will Kim Eun die or be ousted from offices? 01:10:17.230 --> 01:10:18.750 How old is he? 01:10:19.190 --> 01:10:20.310 Kim Jong-un. 01:10:20.930 --> 01:10:25.510 You know, he's been kind of—we haven't heard from him much lately. 01:10:25.530 --> 01:10:26.890 He's been very quiet. 01:10:27.290 --> 01:10:27.630 Yeah. 01:10:28.070 --> 01:10:31.330 I remember in the first presidency, it was all over. 01:10:31.770 --> 01:10:36.690 We had all kinds of saber-rattling on both sides, and then we had Trump make 01:10:36.690 --> 01:10:41.070 his visit and then talk about love letters and all this kind of stuff. 01:10:42.730 --> 01:10:46.090 But we haven't really heard much in years. 01:10:46.090 --> 01:10:52.030 Okay, I just looked this up because I, you know, I know he assumed power when 01:10:52.030 --> 01:10:59.030 he was young, but I didn't realize how, well, not really. 01:10:59.230 --> 01:11:01.990 How old do you think he is? I just looked it up. 01:11:02.510 --> 01:11:05.550 By the way, he assumed office in 2012. 01:11:06.070 --> 01:11:11.330 My guess, without actually looking, is he's approximately our age, 01:11:11.430 --> 01:11:13.570 mid-50s, early to mid-50s. 01:11:13.690 --> 01:11:14.150 No. 01:11:14.770 --> 01:11:15.290 60s? 01:11:15.290 --> 01:11:17.210 He's 41 years old. 01:11:17.330 --> 01:11:18.270 He's 41? 01:11:18.810 --> 01:11:19.410 Yes. 01:11:20.910 --> 01:11:21.670 Jeez. 01:11:21.970 --> 01:11:23.990 He's 41 years old. 01:11:26.240 --> 01:11:31.840 41 years old. This guy assumed this role when he was 28. 01:11:32.700 --> 01:11:33.100 Okay. 01:11:34.120 --> 01:11:37.340 I don't think he's going anywhere after I looked that up. 01:11:37.760 --> 01:11:38.160 Yeah. 01:11:38.280 --> 01:11:42.640 I mean, unless they kill him. And I don't know. The problem is he's got everybody 01:11:42.640 --> 01:11:46.460 so famished in the country anyway, you know, and he has the strength to go fucking kill him. 01:11:47.180 --> 01:11:51.440 Well, the more like, it's not going to be like a popular revolution if he goes. 01:11:51.560 --> 01:11:54.200 It's going to be like someone close to him that's already in power. 01:11:54.200 --> 01:11:57.620 Right, some of his general society You know, fuck this guy. Go boom, boom, boom. 01:11:57.940 --> 01:12:00.600 Or his, like, sister or somebody. You know? 01:12:00.740 --> 01:12:01.540 Does he have a sister? 01:12:01.940 --> 01:12:03.120 He has a sister. 01:12:03.400 --> 01:12:03.980 Or he has a daughter. 01:12:04.300 --> 01:12:09.200 He has a daughter. I think he has a daughter and a sister, both of which are involved in the... 01:12:09.200 --> 01:12:12.980 Let's see. Relatives. Kid and family. Here we go. Children to one confirmed. 01:12:12.980 --> 01:12:15.220 Remember, he killed a half-brother a while ago. 01:12:15.660 --> 01:12:19.140 Oh, yeah. The guy that he poisoned, like, on some foreign trip, right? 01:12:19.360 --> 01:12:20.560 In Singapore or something. 01:12:20.780 --> 01:12:25.680 Yeah, Singapore. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's see. Fuck, I can't. tell. 01:12:27.900 --> 01:12:37.760 Wives, sons, daughters, Kim Jong-un's family, wife, daughter, son, son, 01:12:40.190 --> 01:12:45.330 I guess he has sons, plural, and daughters, plural. So I guess he has brothers. 01:12:45.530 --> 01:12:49.130 Yeah. So he must have brothers and sisters. Yeah. Okay. 01:12:49.330 --> 01:12:51.730 Well, to have sons and daughters, you don't need a brother and sister. 01:12:51.750 --> 01:12:54.710 No, no, no, no. I mean his parents. His parents. 01:12:54.710 --> 01:12:55.850 Oh, his parents. 01:12:56.130 --> 01:12:57.210 His parents. His parents. 01:12:57.350 --> 01:12:58.290 Okay. Yes. Yes. 01:12:58.370 --> 01:12:58.510 Yeah. 01:12:58.590 --> 01:12:58.710 Okay. 01:12:58.790 --> 01:13:00.190 So. Yeah. So. 01:13:00.910 --> 01:13:05.510 Okay. Well, yeah. I do not think he will die or be ousted from office. 01:13:05.730 --> 01:13:07.630 This is another status quo place. 01:13:08.050 --> 01:13:11.970 Look, but here's the thing. I don't know, at some point he's going to do something to get attention. 01:13:12.170 --> 01:13:16.690 I didn't realize that this, you see, how little we care right now about them. 01:13:16.850 --> 01:13:19.650 I just pulled up the news and looked them up. 01:13:20.210 --> 01:13:22.430 Two days ago, news from two days ago. 01:13:23.010 --> 01:13:27.490 North Korea says it tested long-range cruise missiles, and we apparently didn't give a damn. 01:13:27.990 --> 01:13:32.970 I guess so. Yeah, eight years ago we were talking about this stuff and about 01:13:32.970 --> 01:13:36.090 how they were gaining the capability that they could hit the west coast of the 01:13:36.090 --> 01:13:38.970 United States and blah, blah, blah. There was that. 01:13:39.130 --> 01:13:43.470 North Korea Kim's orders tests of nuclear capable cruise missiles. 01:13:44.610 --> 01:13:48.890 And apparently we didn't give a damn. So eventually he will try to do something 01:13:48.890 --> 01:13:51.690 that gets our attention, right? Because that's the way that he's operated. 01:13:52.070 --> 01:13:57.270 That has been the pattern. Like whenever it's too quiet, suddenly we'll get 01:13:57.270 --> 01:13:59.150 some North Korea action. Yeah. 01:13:59.290 --> 01:14:05.810 So I will predict that we will get some North Korean incident that is notable in the news in 2026. 01:14:06.310 --> 01:14:10.450 Big enough that we talk about it on the show. That's our usual gauge. 01:14:10.590 --> 01:14:11.330 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:14:12.010 --> 01:14:17.710 Okay, Ed does have, we both predicted that there won't be a change of leadership 01:14:17.710 --> 01:14:21.690 in North Korea, but Ed wants to know, if there is, 01:14:22.210 --> 01:14:28.970 would that start a process of negotiation for merging North and South Korea? And I will say no. 01:14:29.410 --> 01:14:35.790 Even if Kim Jong-un is gone, that was not going to start up right away. 01:14:36.290 --> 01:14:40.910 As far as I can tell, he has been grooming his daughter to be just as, 01:14:41.150 --> 01:14:48.850 how do I say, craving of the trappings and adulation that he receives as leader 01:14:48.850 --> 01:14:53.310 from any of the pictures and videos I've seen. So he's grooming her for that. 01:14:54.190 --> 01:14:59.990 Yeah. And let me be clear on that. If there is a Kim Jong-un replacement, 01:14:59.990 --> 01:15:04.270 it will not be somebody who's like, ooh, let's be a liberal democracy. 01:15:04.950 --> 01:15:05.430 No. 01:15:05.790 --> 01:15:11.210 You know, it's a bad chance of that. Right. Okay. 01:15:12.510 --> 01:15:18.550 Oh, and that was, there was a follow-up on Taiwan as well. 01:15:18.790 --> 01:15:24.110 Like, if there was an invasion, what would U.S.'s involvement be like? 01:15:25.350 --> 01:15:33.010 And if there was an invasion, I think we would not go to direct war with China 01:15:33.010 --> 01:15:35.510 over it. We might give supplies. 01:15:35.790 --> 01:15:40.550 It would end up similar to Ukraine, like, in terms of what the U.S. 01:15:40.630 --> 01:15:43.630 Involvement is. No. Okay. 01:15:43.710 --> 01:15:47.710 So I'll make this prediction, even though I'm pretty sure we don't have to discuss, 01:15:47.930 --> 01:15:52.030 we would have to, this is a conditional prediction because it has to be- This is conditional. 01:15:52.150 --> 01:15:52.370 Yes. 01:15:52.510 --> 01:15:55.930 It is conditional if we were going to go to war, which I'm predicting we won't go to war. 01:15:56.090 --> 01:16:01.630 No, no. If China actually did invade Taiwan, what would we do? 01:16:01.630 --> 01:16:08.230 Oh, there would be. We'd all be shooting. And the reason is because the Ukraine 01:16:08.230 --> 01:16:11.890 invasion had little direct economic impact on the United States. 01:16:12.030 --> 01:16:14.390 However, a Taiwan invasion would. 01:16:15.490 --> 01:16:16.130 Okay. 01:16:16.670 --> 01:16:22.010 And that's the problem. I mean, because there is so much dependency of the United 01:16:22.010 --> 01:16:26.490 States on semiconductors and other stuff from Taiwan that the reality is—, 01:16:32.310 --> 01:16:38.510 China would still want to sell that stuff. Yeah, Sam, but I mean, 01:16:38.650 --> 01:16:41.470 if they're going to invade and bomb Taiwan, 01:16:42.450 --> 01:16:48.850 I mean, them being able to do a land invasion to Taiwan is going to have severe 01:16:48.850 --> 01:16:50.170 disruptions in that supply chain. 01:16:50.850 --> 01:16:54.490 Okay. Forget about whether in the future maybe they said they want to sell it. 01:16:54.490 --> 01:16:55.670 Well, so with defending against it. 01:16:56.710 --> 01:17:01.830 Yeah but but here's well but which one has a better shot of being less disruptive 01:17:01.830 --> 01:17:07.310 just letting them do go mano a mano and you think that the Taiwanese are not 01:17:07.310 --> 01:17:11.450 look like they would basically they're not going to roll over they're not going 01:17:11.450 --> 01:17:13.690 to roll over anyway you're right yeah, 01:17:15.050 --> 01:17:21.330 So there would be a lot of shooting, you know, non-conventional shooting. 01:17:22.090 --> 01:17:23.890 Conventional shooting, not a nuclear war. 01:17:24.030 --> 01:17:26.790 No, no, no no news. But a lot of conventional shooting. 01:17:26.810 --> 01:17:30.010 You think Trump would respond to that with an all-out war on China? 01:17:30.310 --> 01:17:30.750 No. 01:17:30.890 --> 01:17:31.950 Or just over Taiwan? 01:17:32.290 --> 01:17:37.590 No, no, just over Taiwan. But I'm sure that, yeah, because Japan is not, 01:17:37.710 --> 01:17:42.830 Japan will probably strike in defense of Taiwan. They've agreed to it, 01:17:42.890 --> 01:17:43.690 if I remember correctly. 01:17:44.570 --> 01:17:47.950 And so did Australia and some other people. So this is going to involve, 01:17:48.190 --> 01:17:54.950 unlike in Ukraine, where nobody wanted to directly participate. 01:17:55.350 --> 01:17:57.110 In the Taiwan conflict, a number 01:17:57.110 --> 01:18:00.650 of people have agreed to directly participate already at this point. 01:18:01.230 --> 01:18:06.290 And I think that there is a lot more economically at stake that there is. 01:18:06.450 --> 01:18:14.250 And look, the reality is that that's what drives these fucking things. you know i will. 01:18:14.250 --> 01:18:18.090 Stick with i will stick with taco on here trump always chickens out i think, 01:18:18.790 --> 01:18:23.090 if this happened trump would find a way to not be. 01:18:23.090 --> 01:18:29.250 So you don't think he would want to show off come on man send a couple of carriers 01:18:29.250 --> 01:18:33.070 go and sink the chinese carriers in the water like out there with some subs 01:18:33.070 --> 01:18:38.110 going like fucking like blow them out blow them out of the water he would love that shit. 01:18:38.490 --> 01:18:43.030 He has been finding an itch to like that kind of shit. Okay. 01:18:43.970 --> 01:18:49.690 Yeah. Just to have a difference on something that we both agree will not happen, 01:18:50.010 --> 01:18:53.070 I will stick to no and you will stick to yes. 01:18:53.250 --> 01:18:58.570 But I think we can both agree that if China did invade Taiwan, 01:18:58.970 --> 01:19:00.910 the results would be bad. 01:19:00.910 --> 01:19:08.670 Oh, it's awful for the global economy, for people, in terms of casualties, deaths. 01:19:08.930 --> 01:19:14.030 This would be a catastrophic war. Far worse than the Ukraine war. 01:19:15.070 --> 01:19:23.290 Okay, next up, Americas. Number one, from Bruce, will Maduro still be president 01:19:23.290 --> 01:19:24.650 of Venezuela at end of year? 01:19:28.430 --> 01:19:30.730 I'm going to say yes. 01:19:31.550 --> 01:19:33.530 You know, he has been negotiating to leave. 01:19:34.310 --> 01:19:37.950 We're talking about the south of France just a few minutes ago. 01:19:38.730 --> 01:19:45.190 Not south of France, but somewhere similar. I think Spain had offered some passage. 01:19:46.910 --> 01:19:50.170 You know what? I don't think Maduro lasts 2026. I'm going to say no. 01:19:50.690 --> 01:19:54.770 Okay. I, I, I, okay. 01:19:54.950 --> 01:20:00.050 That's covered later. So next up, also from Bruce, will Argentina repay the 01:20:00.050 --> 01:20:02.250 $20 billion loan from the U.S.? 01:20:05.060 --> 01:20:06.220 We're never seeing that money. 01:20:06.500 --> 01:20:07.720 That sounds like a no. 01:20:08.240 --> 01:20:09.420 We're never seeing that money. 01:20:09.680 --> 01:20:14.420 Well, even under, like, on official repayment terms, is it even supposed to be repaid this year? 01:20:14.420 --> 01:20:16.040 Not that I recall, because... 01:20:16.040 --> 01:20:16.420 Probably not. 01:20:16.580 --> 01:20:20.640 Remember, it wasn't even a loan. The way that this... If I remember, 01:20:20.880 --> 01:20:27.600 the way that the $20 billion to Argentina were done by us buying currency, 01:20:27.860 --> 01:20:28.720 if I remember correctly. 01:20:30.320 --> 01:20:37.260 Let me see how they did it. Yeah, exactly. is a currency swap line with Argentina 01:20:37.260 --> 01:20:40.680 Central Bank and direct purchases of Argentine pesos. 01:20:40.900 --> 01:20:45.020 So we took U.S. dollars and bought Argentine pesos. 01:20:45.260 --> 01:20:49.460 There wasn't really directly like a repayment? 01:20:50.100 --> 01:20:51.120 There wasn't a loan? 01:20:52.140 --> 01:20:55.440 I mean, we could just go on the open market and sell the pesos. 01:20:55.960 --> 01:20:59.920 The problem is, and I think the more accurate question is, 01:21:01.300 --> 01:21:09.740 you know, would we, if we sold, if we went and sold those pesos, 01:21:10.240 --> 01:21:15.100 would we get what was promised in the currency swap line, the core of the aid 01:21:15.100 --> 01:21:17.620 was 20 billion currency swap agreement under disagreement. 01:21:18.160 --> 01:21:22.520 The Central Bank of Virginia exchanged a significant Argentine pesos for dollars. Okay. 01:21:23.780 --> 01:21:26.560 With the agreement to return the dollars later with interest. 01:21:27.990 --> 01:21:34.970 I don't, how they, I don't, I don't, I don't, they don't have how to return that 20 billion. 01:21:35.410 --> 01:21:42.810 So I guess they were promising that we will buy the, give you back the $20 billion in the currency swap. 01:21:42.990 --> 01:21:48.310 But the reality is that it would be crazy because the peso has continued to drop in value. 01:21:48.430 --> 01:21:55.110 So that means that they would have to a lot, a lot, lot more pesos to get those dollars. 01:21:55.110 --> 01:22:00.230 So if that was now I'm seeing that that was the agreement, I got to say that 01:22:00.230 --> 01:22:06.750 that promise now they're not giving us back 20 billion dollars and we're never seeing that money. 01:22:07.470 --> 01:22:14.370 OK. I believe this next one is from Bruce and and overlaps the next one as well. 01:22:14.530 --> 01:22:18.030 But, oh, I should predict that. I don't I know nothing about this one, 01:22:18.110 --> 01:22:20.290 but I'll agree with Yvonne. no repayment. 01:22:20.470 --> 01:22:24.130 Okay, next up. Will the U.S. 01:22:24.750 --> 01:22:29.370 annex any parts of Canada, Greenland, or Panama? 01:22:30.890 --> 01:22:32.890 In 2026? No. 01:22:33.070 --> 01:22:34.110 In 2026. No. 01:22:34.230 --> 01:22:34.350 No. 01:22:34.490 --> 01:22:34.690 No. 01:22:34.690 --> 01:22:37.290 No, but we'll still hear about it, though. 01:22:38.350 --> 01:22:42.330 You know, it had gone quiet for a little while, and then it came back recently. 01:22:42.850 --> 01:22:46.070 Yeah, the Greenland part. Like, Trump appointed that envoy to Greenland or whatever. 01:22:46.270 --> 01:22:52.310 Oh, yeah, such a well-qualified and, you know, knowledgeable person on Greenland 01:22:52.310 --> 01:22:54.950 affairs that we have appointed, yes. 01:22:55.510 --> 01:22:57.430 See, governor of Louisiana or something? 01:22:57.990 --> 01:23:03.130 Something like that. Oh, which, by the way, hit some controversy because apparently 01:23:03.130 --> 01:23:09.130 it is illegal for him to hold that federal position at the same time that he's governor. 01:23:09.750 --> 01:23:12.530 And then he was like, oh, does it? And people were asking him, 01:23:12.610 --> 01:23:14.570 does this mean you're resigning as governor? He's like, wait, 01:23:14.670 --> 01:23:16.510 no, no, I'm not resigning as governor. 01:23:17.070 --> 01:23:21.590 And so, like, the whole thing, like, whatever. 01:23:23.030 --> 01:23:28.130 And I shouldn't whatever this. This is exactly the normalization people talk 01:23:28.130 --> 01:23:30.810 about. Like, illegal crap all the time. 01:23:31.290 --> 01:23:31.790 Right. 01:23:32.290 --> 01:23:36.650 And, like, like you said, who has standing? 01:23:37.070 --> 01:23:41.250 Like, what's the situation? Is anything going to happen? Even if it does go to courts. 01:23:41.890 --> 01:23:45.710 It takes years to go through the courts. So everybody throws up their hands 01:23:45.710 --> 01:23:47.910 and be like, I guess he's doing illegal shit then. 01:23:48.810 --> 01:23:53.810 So, anyway. Next up. This is from Ed. 01:23:55.890 --> 01:24:00.090 and will Trump direct placing of military forces on Greenland? 01:24:00.150 --> 01:24:03.170 The problem with this question is, of course, we already have military forces. 01:24:03.230 --> 01:24:04.210 You're right. We already have... 01:24:05.380 --> 01:24:08.720 You mean outside of the encampment that we have? I'm going to say we're not 01:24:08.720 --> 01:24:13.820 going to have anything over and above what we already have had in Greenland. 01:24:14.100 --> 01:24:18.660 I will agree with that. I guess the question is aiming at, like, 01:24:18.660 --> 01:24:21.920 are we going to try to take over Greenland militarily? No. 01:24:22.480 --> 01:24:27.980 No. This is just something to distract every other week about Epstein. 01:24:28.660 --> 01:24:35.140 Well, I think that this is something like, I mean, would Trump like it? 01:24:36.380 --> 01:24:41.260 If Denmark had actually responded with like, oh, sure, we'll sell it to you. 01:24:41.820 --> 01:24:44.520 Sure, we'll swap it with Puerto Rico. Whatever. 01:24:45.140 --> 01:24:49.140 You know, I would have been, listen, if that was the offer, okay, 01:24:49.260 --> 01:24:53.360 on the table, the Puerto Rico one, look, I would have been heading the delegation, 01:24:53.360 --> 01:24:58.680 okay, to go and close these negotiations as soon as possible. Okay? 01:25:00.360 --> 01:25:05.980 Yes. Anyway, like, would Trump actually like a deal where the U.S. 01:25:06.080 --> 01:25:08.060 takes possession of Greenland? Yes. 01:25:08.760 --> 01:25:13.700 Would he actually, like, go to war with Denmark over it? No. 01:25:14.000 --> 01:25:18.600 Would he pay for it? I'm going to say no either, because he doesn't like anything that he has to pay for. 01:25:19.360 --> 01:25:22.620 Well, but if he can use other people's money, that's a whole other story, though. 01:25:22.780 --> 01:25:25.580 That's a different story, yeah. So you think the Saudis are going to give him 01:25:25.580 --> 01:25:29.480 the money to go and, like, pay Denmark? Is that how it's going to work? 01:25:30.000 --> 01:25:32.700 Well, he doesn't care. As long as it's not his personal stash, 01:25:32.760 --> 01:25:35.540 he doesn't care. Like, he can use taxpayer money for it. He doesn't care about that. 01:25:35.560 --> 01:25:38.180 No, no, no. But the thing is, he doesn't like to approve, like, 01:25:38.320 --> 01:25:41.100 even like, you know, it has to feel like, 01:25:42.140 --> 01:25:44.060 third-party money. You know what I'm saying? 01:25:44.340 --> 01:25:44.700 Yeah, yeah. 01:25:45.500 --> 01:25:45.940 So. 01:25:47.120 --> 01:25:50.980 It'll be just like the ballroom. He'll have, like, all the major U.S. 01:25:51.100 --> 01:25:56.300 Corporations like chucking some money. Exactly. Sign checks over to this thing. 01:25:57.660 --> 01:26:00.540 Give him, like, a little trophy. 01:26:00.860 --> 01:26:04.360 We are so... And a medal. A medal. 01:26:04.740 --> 01:26:07.840 Denmark should just give him, like, a little medal that says. 01:26:07.940 --> 01:26:11.360 You know, the Donald Trump honorary Greenland. 01:26:11.360 --> 01:26:15.440 And here's the keys to Greenland. Little gold keys. 01:26:15.620 --> 01:26:21.220 And a medal of like the something of Greenland. 01:26:21.400 --> 01:26:24.620 The, I don't know. 01:26:25.100 --> 01:26:27.120 Yeah, exactly. The green part. 01:26:27.680 --> 01:26:31.280 Yeah, right. The green part. Right. 01:26:32.480 --> 01:26:33.960 Yeah, that would make him happy. 01:26:34.260 --> 01:26:34.720 Yes. 01:26:34.840 --> 01:26:35.020 Okay. 01:26:35.640 --> 01:26:38.840 Especially if it's made out of gold. Remember, it's got to be out of gold. 01:26:39.240 --> 01:26:43.780 Of course. Has to be gold. Well, at least gold-colored. It can be gold spray paint. 01:26:43.880 --> 01:26:46.880 At least a gold-colored, yes. He's apparently fine with that. Yeah, apparently, yes. 01:26:47.800 --> 01:26:53.680 Okay, next up, also from Ed, will there be a direct Trump invasion of Venezuela? 01:26:54.240 --> 01:26:58.060 Now, of course, we did have this report where Trump, like, apparently, 01:26:58.060 --> 01:27:03.840 like, spilled the beans on a covert operation on some dock in Venezuela that 01:27:03.840 --> 01:27:05.200 happened earlier this month. 01:27:05.940 --> 01:27:07.700 But, like, that—. 01:27:08.280 --> 01:27:09.280 That was not an invasion. 01:27:09.560 --> 01:27:10.640 It's not an invasion. 01:27:10.840 --> 01:27:13.700 No. They, for some reason, attacked a dock. 01:27:14.620 --> 01:27:19.940 Yes. Which, apparently from reports, was not a very significant dock either, 01:27:19.940 --> 01:27:21.540 and the Venezuelans barely noticed. 01:27:22.120 --> 01:27:22.860 Yeah, no. 01:27:24.160 --> 01:27:25.280 So, invasion? 01:27:26.530 --> 01:27:29.950 Let me, let me add not just land invasion. Will we have like, 01:27:30.610 --> 01:27:36.930 let's do two questions. First of all, are we going to have direct large scale 01:27:36.930 --> 01:27:39.530 strikes on Venezuela proper? 01:27:39.750 --> 01:27:43.090 Not just the boats, not just like a little tiny thing on a dock, 01:27:43.190 --> 01:27:47.250 but like, are we going to have like airstrikes on Caracas or something? 01:27:49.750 --> 01:27:55.630 I know Rubio wants it. Oh, it's a tough one. I don't, 01:27:56.640 --> 01:28:00.320 You know, the thing is, you know how the focus was in Venezuela for weeks and 01:28:00.320 --> 01:28:04.160 weeks and we moved all these troops and we moved all this stuff. We have all this gear. 01:28:04.320 --> 01:28:07.800 And like I told you, I mean, I flew Dominican Republic and there is like military 01:28:07.800 --> 01:28:09.240 equipment deployed over there. 01:28:09.480 --> 01:28:12.960 There's military equipment all over Puerto Rico, like all of a sudden deployed 01:28:12.960 --> 01:28:15.980 all over the place. And it's like all over the Caribbean. 01:28:16.940 --> 01:28:18.620 We moved in an aircraft carrier. 01:28:18.960 --> 01:28:26.600 Yeah, and an aircraft carrier. I'm going to say that we're going to bomb Venezuela at some point. 01:28:27.260 --> 01:28:32.980 I'm going to say no to full scale. Invasion, yeah. 01:28:33.700 --> 01:28:37.500 Well, not even invasion. No to full scale airstrikes. 01:28:37.720 --> 01:28:42.780 Like, we're not going to have, like, Iraq-style shock and awe or anything. 01:28:43.020 --> 01:28:47.120 At worst, we'll have a few airstrikes on isolated targets. 01:28:47.120 --> 01:28:55.660 no full-scale massive air attack and no land invasion no no troops on the ground 01:28:55.660 --> 01:29:01.060 other than like special forces doing like little attacks here and there that 01:29:01.060 --> 01:29:03.600 has already been reported and is already going on. 01:29:03.600 --> 01:29:06.720 I i mean i i think that 01:29:06.720 --> 01:29:14.080 he's going to try to use bombings and some stuff like that in order to intimidate 01:29:14.080 --> 01:29:20.580 maduro to leave but not invade with like troops so some stuff like the bombings 01:29:20.580 --> 01:29:25.840 that we've had in iran you know we've struck like leaders and stuff and whatever, 01:29:26.500 --> 01:29:32.300 did the bunker busters that kind of stuff i think that i think that that that's 01:29:32.300 --> 01:29:36.280 gonna be what we'll get eventually okay. 01:29:36.280 --> 01:29:42.360 Okay next we have we have an anywhere else category and then we have a global 01:29:42.360 --> 01:29:44.340 category of things that cover the whole world. 01:29:44.960 --> 01:29:50.360 So anywhere else first from Ed will, I guess this could be global too, whatever. 01:29:50.880 --> 01:29:55.460 Will space aliens invade the Earth and take over governing of the world? 01:29:55.660 --> 01:29:58.520 My answer, God, I hope so. That would be cool. 01:29:58.680 --> 01:29:58.840 Ah! 01:30:00.470 --> 01:30:03.150 But no, no, I don't think that's going to happen. 01:30:04.730 --> 01:30:10.230 I don't know. No, I'm going to say the answer is no as well. 01:30:10.850 --> 01:30:13.010 No, going out on that limb this year. 01:30:13.590 --> 01:30:18.490 No, no, we're not going to get, you know, no, we're not going to get the alien 01:30:18.490 --> 01:30:24.370 invasion that we've been hoping for. I mean, aliens from space, to be specific. 01:30:26.110 --> 01:30:27.810 Makes me want to go rewatch V. 01:30:29.590 --> 01:30:33.010 There you go that's a blast from the past there you. 01:30:33.010 --> 01:30:36.150 Go yeah there you go okay then also 01:30:36.150 --> 01:30:41.630 from ad will there be any resolution of the catastrophe in the sudan and i'm 01:30:41.630 --> 01:30:44.830 gonna say unfortunately no this is another status quo type thing where it'll 01:30:44.830 --> 01:30:48.850 just continue to be bad this this is also by the way one of those that we have 01:30:48.850 --> 01:30:54.990 i think we've only mentioned it in passing maybe once or twice over the course of the whole year. 01:30:55.270 --> 01:31:01.490 But the number of dead there eclipses almost anything else in the world at the moment. It's horrific. 01:31:02.290 --> 01:31:08.190 Yeah. No, I know. But that's what keeps happening. So, ah, nobody cares. 01:31:09.070 --> 01:31:13.270 Unfortunately. So, do you agree? No resolution this year? 01:31:13.350 --> 01:31:13.790 No resolution. 01:31:14.610 --> 01:31:17.930 Okay. Now we have some ones in the global category. 01:31:18.330 --> 01:31:25.090 From me, will there be any overt country versus, any new overt country versus 01:31:25.090 --> 01:31:28.570 country wars between UN member states? I'm going to say no. 01:31:28.950 --> 01:31:30.710 I'm going with you. I'm going to say no. 01:31:31.610 --> 01:31:37.570 Okay. Next up also for me, will there be any new civil wars that get enough 01:31:37.570 --> 01:31:39.950 news coverage that we actually talk about them on the show? 01:31:40.970 --> 01:31:44.090 Mm, that's a good question. God. 01:31:46.250 --> 01:31:51.430 That gets, like, that really becomes, like, a recurring theme that we talk about 01:31:51.430 --> 01:31:54.310 it, like, you know, like, we talked about the Ukraine war kind of a thing. 01:31:54.470 --> 01:31:59.030 Well, at least once. Like, we— It's just at least once is. 01:31:59.170 --> 01:32:01.230 Like, quite a low bar. 01:32:01.670 --> 01:32:05.630 Well, hey, let's say more than in passing. We can't just say, 01:32:05.730 --> 01:32:07.070 oh, this thing happened in Sudan. 01:32:07.270 --> 01:32:10.010 We have to spend, like, five or ten minutes talking about it. 01:32:12.070 --> 01:32:14.990 enough so that it appears in the description of the 01:32:14.990 --> 01:32:19.310 show I'm going no I will also 01:32:19.310 --> 01:32:22.510 say no like they're unfortunately new 01:32:22.510 --> 01:32:31.110 low level conflicts almost every year but like very few of them get raised to 01:32:31.110 --> 01:32:37.110 the level where we notice them and part of that is you know the US centric nature 01:32:37.110 --> 01:32:40.470 of our show and blah blah blah and, 01:32:41.670 --> 01:32:48.410 Yeah, it is what it is. Okay, next up from Ed, and I think I'm going to disqualify this question. 01:32:48.690 --> 01:32:51.730 It's who will be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. 01:32:51.850 --> 01:32:55.610 And the reason I'm going to disqualify this is hundreds or if not thousands 01:32:55.610 --> 01:32:58.610 of people get nominated, and we don't usually see that list. 01:32:58.730 --> 01:33:02.630 It's not like the Oscars where there's five people nominated and then they pick one. 01:33:02.670 --> 01:33:03.250 Did you nominate me? 01:33:04.010 --> 01:33:08.830 I did not. And I think there actually is a restricted list of who can do the 01:33:08.830 --> 01:33:12.330 nominations, but it's a pretty damn big list of people who can nominate. 01:33:13.230 --> 01:33:17.710 And, you know, it, yeah, we don't have, we don't have a situation where there's 01:33:17.710 --> 01:33:22.030 like a small list that's nominated and then you pick one. It's just like, but. 01:33:22.130 --> 01:33:23.250 But, but you didn't know. 01:33:23.290 --> 01:33:28.170 We never see the full list. Cause I know I'm sorry, Yvonne, your, 01:33:28.170 --> 01:33:30.870 your accomplishments were just not big enough this year. 01:33:31.250 --> 01:33:34.510 I mean, come on. I, I think I did. 01:33:34.610 --> 01:33:37.710 You, you did, you did add like 15 wars. 01:33:38.290 --> 01:33:39.110 Yes. Yes. 01:33:39.310 --> 01:33:45.030 Yeah. So the next question is who will receive the Nobel Peace Prize? 01:33:45.610 --> 01:33:50.170 I, I will say like the last few years, like, honestly, like I haven't known 01:33:50.170 --> 01:33:52.910 the people before they won. I haven't recognized. 01:33:52.910 --> 01:33:57.790 Okay. I happen to have known the recipient. This one was this year. That's from Venezuela. 01:33:58.050 --> 01:33:58.810 From Venezuela, right? 01:33:59.110 --> 01:34:03.110 Yeah. Yeah. So I knew who that person was. Let me see. I'm going to, 01:34:03.170 --> 01:34:05.610 I'm going to hang on. I'm going to pull up the list of like a recent. 01:34:05.610 --> 01:34:07.490 I haven't actually looked up the list lately. 01:34:07.490 --> 01:34:14.450 Of recent Nobel Peace Prize winners. Here we go. 01:34:19.350 --> 01:34:23.330 It started with the 1901 getting down to the bottom. 01:34:23.990 --> 01:34:30.990 Maria Corina Machado, which was. So 2024 was Nihon Hidankyo for its efforts 01:34:30.990 --> 01:34:34.790 to achieve a world of free of nuclear weapons. Never heard of them. 01:34:36.630 --> 01:34:41.750 Narjiz Mohammadi, 2023, for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran. 01:34:43.040 --> 01:34:50.580 I think I had heard when she got named, so I remember that, but I didn't know her from before. 01:34:52.640 --> 01:34:59.260 2022, Alice Bialatsky, some kind of memorial and the Center for Civil Liberties. 01:35:00.540 --> 01:35:04.340 Peace Prize laureates represent civil society in their home countries. 01:35:05.240 --> 01:35:07.920 They have for many years promoted the right to criticize power. 01:35:07.920 --> 01:35:13.900 So this was one from Alice Pilevsky's from Belarus, Memorial Foundation in Russia, 01:35:13.900 --> 01:35:16.720 and then the Center for Liberties in Ukraine. 01:35:18.380 --> 01:35:20.920 2021. Jesus Christ, I mean, we don't know any of these people. 01:35:22.540 --> 01:35:28.060 Maria Reza and Dmitry Muratov, for their efforts to save their freedom. 01:35:28.160 --> 01:35:31.160 Now, Maria Reza, I have seen some documentaries on her from Frontline. 01:35:31.160 --> 01:35:31.940 Okay, so there you go. 01:35:32.020 --> 01:35:35.420 But after she won, after she won, I did not know before she won. 01:35:35.420 --> 01:35:39.000 No, I have no idea. For the efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, 01:35:39.220 --> 01:35:42.760 which is preconditioned democracy and lasting peace. Same with Mara Khan. 01:35:42.880 --> 01:35:43.200 By the way. 01:35:43.440 --> 01:35:46.980 2020, the World Food Program. Well, we had heard of that. Okay. 01:35:48.680 --> 01:35:54.100 2019, Abiy Ahmed. Sorry if I mispronounce your name, Abiy. 01:35:54.380 --> 01:35:57.460 For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, 01:35:57.680 --> 01:36:03.400 in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea. 01:36:04.000 --> 01:36:05.820 Anyway, how far back are you going to go, John? 01:36:06.080 --> 01:36:11.080 I'm going to go until we find somebody we know. Well, let me see if that's even possible. 01:36:11.280 --> 01:36:14.060 The last one I recognize is 2014 Malala. 01:36:14.920 --> 01:36:17.800 Well, the first one I recognize is 2009. 01:36:18.960 --> 01:36:19.760 Barack Obama. 01:36:20.360 --> 01:36:22.980 Yes. Yeah, I knew that guy. 01:36:24.800 --> 01:36:25.680 Yeah, anyway. 01:36:26.100 --> 01:36:31.140 And before that, shit, you see, the 2010s were easy. 2008, okay, 01:36:31.200 --> 01:36:33.300 I don't know, but 2007, Al Gore. 01:36:33.900 --> 01:36:34.420 Right. 01:36:34.760 --> 01:36:35.780 Well, that makes it easy. 01:36:36.960 --> 01:36:37.520 Yes. 01:36:38.280 --> 01:36:45.560 Look, 2002, Jimmy Carter. The fuck, man? You know, 2001, Kofi Annan. I know who Kofi Annan is. 01:36:46.640 --> 01:36:49.960 And 2000, Kim Dae-jung, the South Korean guy. Yes, I knew that guy. 01:36:50.280 --> 01:36:54.140 I mean, 2010s, you know, those I knew. 01:36:54.260 --> 01:36:59.660 But I realized that after Barack Obama, it's like, I have no, 01:36:59.800 --> 01:37:04.440 you know, the first one that I knew from before the prize was 2025. 01:37:05.520 --> 01:37:06.880 That's the first one that I knew. 01:37:06.960 --> 01:37:07.780 Right. 01:37:08.120 --> 01:37:08.820 That's it. 01:37:09.440 --> 01:37:15.520 Okay, so, bottom line, my prediction is someone will win the Nobel Peace Prize, 01:37:15.520 --> 01:37:18.520 who we have not heard of or talked about before. 01:37:18.560 --> 01:37:24.500 I will further say it will not, not be Donald Trump. 01:37:24.820 --> 01:37:27.660 Okay, I will agree it's not Donald Trump. 01:37:28.540 --> 01:37:34.080 I'm going to ask ChatGPT who it thinks will win the Noble Peace Prize in 2026 01:37:34.080 --> 01:37:41.460 and that will be my answer to the question I cannot predict the Noble who will 01:37:41.460 --> 01:37:44.120 win but it's confidential I don't care, 01:37:45.340 --> 01:37:56.020 fuck screw you give me your best shot who okay let's see trying trying trying Trying, 01:37:57.260 --> 01:38:01.120 Okay, not Donald Trump, because it talked about, but I'll go with number two, 01:38:02.060 --> 01:38:06.240 Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, ERRs. 01:38:06.320 --> 01:38:11.960 It's an organization that gives a service to, you know, the conflict we were just talking about. 01:38:12.280 --> 01:38:19.900 So they are a strong non-individual contender. So I will go with Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. 01:38:20.260 --> 01:38:26.500 Okay, very good. Next up, and we were joking about this just a second ago, from John. 01:38:26.940 --> 01:38:31.200 First question from John today. How many wars will Trump claim to have ended 01:38:31.200 --> 01:38:33.660 or prevented by the end of 2026? 01:38:33.920 --> 01:38:37.900 He's already up at like eight or something, right? So this would be above and beyond that. 01:38:38.100 --> 01:38:41.840 So I'll go with 10. 01:38:42.440 --> 01:38:48.380 10. So two more. Like, I'm not sure. Is eight his actual current number? I don't know. 01:38:48.560 --> 01:38:53.060 It's approximately there. Once again, I got to ask. I'm going to go with how 01:38:53.060 --> 01:38:55.940 many wars has Donald Trump? 01:38:55.940 --> 01:38:59.480 You know, chat GPT is not the most reliable for this kind of question. 01:38:59.760 --> 01:39:04.060 Well, what the hell anyway? I mean, this is a question that's very difficult, 01:39:04.060 --> 01:39:07.820 you know, as well. So I'll go with whatever the fuck it says right now. 01:39:08.740 --> 01:39:11.360 As claimed to have ended. 01:39:12.120 --> 01:39:16.820 Eight. I found an article from USA Today from December 5th. 01:39:16.900 --> 01:39:17.860 It says eight so far. 01:39:21.680 --> 01:39:23.140 What does ChatGPT say? 01:39:23.960 --> 01:39:24.260 Eight. 01:39:24.760 --> 01:39:25.820 Okay, here are the eight. 01:39:25.820 --> 01:39:27.400 By the way. So we got agreement on eight. 01:39:27.400 --> 01:39:27.540 Wait, wait, wait. 01:39:27.700 --> 01:39:27.900 Yes. 01:39:28.080 --> 01:39:32.580 Here are the eight that Trump claims to have resolved. Armenia and Azerbaijan. 01:39:33.560 --> 01:39:36.540 The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. 01:39:36.800 --> 01:39:37.660 Yeah, it's on this list. 01:39:37.680 --> 01:39:38.460 Iran and Israel. 01:39:38.860 --> 01:39:39.080 Yep. 01:39:39.320 --> 01:39:40.300 India and Pakistan. 01:39:40.740 --> 01:39:40.920 Yep. 01:39:41.120 --> 01:39:42.340 Cambodia and Thailand. 01:39:42.880 --> 01:39:43.040 Yep. 01:39:43.120 --> 01:39:44.240 Israel and Hamas. 01:39:44.600 --> 01:39:44.820 Yep. 01:39:45.240 --> 01:39:47.960 And, wait, that's seven. What did I miss? 01:39:48.340 --> 01:39:51.680 Let's see. Israel, Hamas, Israel, Iran, India, Pakistan. 01:39:52.080 --> 01:39:53.400 Oh, Ethiopia and Egypt. 01:39:53.860 --> 01:39:56.660 Yeah, Ethiopia. Yep. There you go. That's eight. 01:39:57.620 --> 01:40:00.180 Okay. So you think two more. 01:40:01.500 --> 01:40:02.880 Two more. Okay. 01:40:02.980 --> 01:40:03.680 More is better, right? 01:40:05.040 --> 01:40:11.700 I'll say, given his need to, like, inflate numbers, if he did eight in his first 01:40:11.700 --> 01:40:15.160 year, he's going to do another eight in his second year, so make it 16 total. 01:40:15.460 --> 01:40:16.580 Okay. There you go. 01:40:16.720 --> 01:40:17.940 He has to keep up the pace. 01:40:18.220 --> 01:40:18.640 Okay. 01:40:19.620 --> 01:40:23.040 Okay. And that is the end of the international section. 01:40:24.120 --> 01:40:27.000 and you know and just for for those 01:40:27.000 --> 01:40:29.840 who are worried that we're approaching the 01:40:29.840 --> 01:40:33.060 two hour mark already and have only done two of these they tend 01:40:33.060 --> 01:40:35.900 to get faster and faster as we go on like the the 01:40:35.900 --> 01:40:41.340 last few tend to be shorter anyway of course anybody listening knows how long 01:40:41.340 --> 01:40:47.820 we ended up being so you know exactly how far exactly right so okay next break 01:40:47.820 --> 01:40:53.480 here we go and then we will be back with the technology section. Here we are. 01:41:43.300 --> 01:41:49.680 Okay, we are back. Technology, first section in technology is energy. 01:41:50.140 --> 01:41:53.620 I'm moving things around between subcategories again now. 01:41:54.320 --> 01:41:56.040 First energy question. 01:41:56.820 --> 01:42:02.860 From Ed, will Trump's closing of the coastal wind projects be reversed? 01:42:03.400 --> 01:42:04.000 Yes. 01:42:04.200 --> 01:42:07.740 No. Yes? I'm going to say no. Why do you say yes? 01:42:08.400 --> 01:42:13.980 Because there is no good legal basis to actually for them to just shut them down. 01:42:14.440 --> 01:42:19.360 I will say that actually there will be an injunction and they will be reopened. 01:42:19.460 --> 01:42:21.820 Plus, the fact is that we need the energy. 01:42:22.060 --> 01:42:26.400 And so right now he's causing, you know, you've got this whole thing with affordability 01:42:26.400 --> 01:42:30.780 and energy prices spiking, specifically in the area that we're talking about. 01:42:31.040 --> 01:42:33.880 And so cutting off the supply is nuts. 01:42:34.140 --> 01:42:36.840 Do you think whatever has to go through the courts will get done this year? 01:42:36.840 --> 01:42:39.920 I think there will be an injunction to reopen them because remember, 01:42:40.100 --> 01:42:44.040 these projects are already either operating or close to being operational. 01:42:45.140 --> 01:42:50.220 So, yes. So I think that there will be an injunction to actually stop this idiot. 01:42:50.400 --> 01:42:52.600 I think they're already it already had happened, Sam. 01:42:53.340 --> 01:42:56.500 He's trying this for a second time. And in the past, it had been shut. 01:42:56.720 --> 01:43:00.080 It had been blocked. So I think that he's going to they're going to wind up 01:43:00.080 --> 01:43:03.680 going back to court and they're going to put they're going to he's going to lose again. 01:43:03.680 --> 01:43:08.400 So, well, let me ask, instead of will it be reversed at any point, 01:43:08.640 --> 01:43:12.620 will these be open at the end of the year? 01:43:13.100 --> 01:43:14.840 Yeah, I mean, yes. 01:43:15.000 --> 01:43:15.180 Okay. 01:43:15.560 --> 01:43:15.780 Yes. 01:43:15.900 --> 01:43:22.060 Okay. Because you implied there could be back and forth as it goes up and down the legal chain. 01:43:22.260 --> 01:43:27.180 Yeah, but I think the first thing is that they're going to, his order is going, 01:43:27.300 --> 01:43:33.560 this already had happened, that he had tried this already and he had lost and he's tried again. so. 01:43:34.260 --> 01:43:40.460 Okay, I'm going to stick with no, but we'll see. I clearly don't know as much as you do on this one. 01:43:40.820 --> 01:43:49.000 Okay, next from Ed. Will someone make an actual fusion plant capable of powering one or more houses? 01:43:49.140 --> 01:43:53.020 Not fission, because I believe those already exist in various ways, 01:43:53.020 --> 01:43:56.260 both at large scale and people have been making smaller scale ones. 01:43:56.360 --> 01:43:59.480 But this is fusion. I'm going to say no. We're not there on fusion yet. 01:43:59.660 --> 01:44:00.080 No. 01:44:00.520 --> 01:44:02.760 Fusion is always several years in the future. 01:44:02.760 --> 01:44:08.920 I would like, wasn't that like a Back to the Future thing, the Mr. Fusion? Mr. 01:44:08.940 --> 01:44:09.420 Fusion? 01:44:10.060 --> 01:44:14.760 Yeah. I mean, I would love that. That would be fantastic. But I don't think we're there yet. 01:44:15.140 --> 01:44:23.580 Not there yet. And there are a number of companies who claim to no longer be 01:44:23.580 --> 01:44:28.760 15, 20, 30 years away, but to be only a couple years away. 01:44:29.440 --> 01:44:34.120 But this is one of those things where I'll believe it when I see it. 01:44:34.280 --> 01:44:39.800 But even once it's true, they will start out super expensive. 01:44:40.240 --> 01:44:47.800 They will start, it'll be a long time till we see actual practical application of Fusion stuff. 01:44:48.020 --> 01:44:50.560 So I'm going to say no, not in 2026. 01:44:51.640 --> 01:44:54.020 Next up, transportation. 01:44:55.180 --> 01:44:58.180 This is from Ed. Two parts. 01:44:59.640 --> 01:45:04.240 And he doesn't specify U.S., so we treat this how you are. 01:45:04.480 --> 01:45:08.160 What percentage of cars and pickups will be full EV at year-end? 01:45:08.300 --> 01:45:10.900 There are a number of things we want to clarify here. First, 01:45:11.060 --> 01:45:12.400 is this U.S. only or global? 01:45:12.640 --> 01:45:16.100 Second, are we talking about new cars purchased, or are we talking cars on the road? 01:45:17.000 --> 01:45:20.000 However you want to answer this, Yvonne. And this is full EV. 01:45:20.200 --> 01:45:21.900 There's another question on hybrid after this. 01:45:24.520 --> 01:45:27.440 Repeat the question. Sorry. 01:45:28.500 --> 01:45:29.920 Yvonne got distracted there. 01:45:30.020 --> 01:45:33.760 Yeah, I got distracted for a second. Sorry. Repeat the question. 01:45:34.140 --> 01:45:40.260 What percentage of cars and pickups, so just vehicles, will be full EV at the 01:45:40.260 --> 01:45:41.520 year end? This is from Ed. 01:45:41.700 --> 01:45:46.280 But he does not specify U.S. or international, and he does not specify whether 01:45:46.280 --> 01:45:50.100 he's talking about new cars sold or whether he's talking cars on the road. 01:45:50.260 --> 01:45:56.800 So pick however you want to answer that question. And there's a separate question 01:45:56.800 --> 01:45:59.180 for hybrid. This is full EV only. 01:46:01.260 --> 01:46:05.400 Let me see, because I'm going to pull up the information on that first. 01:46:05.840 --> 01:46:14.020 Because this year, in 2024, we had more than 10. We did exceed 10%. 01:46:14.960 --> 01:46:16.020 In 2024. 01:46:16.020 --> 01:46:21.120 In 2024. That's a year. For new car sales. 01:46:21.380 --> 01:46:22.260 In the U.S.? 01:46:23.160 --> 01:46:24.600 Yeah, but. 01:46:25.440 --> 01:46:28.660 But then we have incentives expiring and all kinds of other factors. 01:46:29.360 --> 01:46:32.700 So, I mean, that's one of the things where I think that and because of some 01:46:32.700 --> 01:46:36.660 of the trends, the share of that will probably like remain kind of flat. 01:46:37.780 --> 01:46:42.680 This year. So I think that that's so that that's it's going to stay around not 01:46:42.680 --> 01:46:44.700 nine to 11 percent range. 01:46:44.780 --> 01:46:46.400 Nine to 11 percent. 01:46:46.640 --> 01:46:46.880 Yeah. 01:46:47.060 --> 01:46:49.660 And you are new part, new cars. 01:46:49.980 --> 01:46:50.340 New cars. 01:46:50.760 --> 01:46:52.840 Yes. Fully V. 01:46:53.160 --> 01:46:57.660 Yes. The reality is that hybrids is a totally different question. 01:46:57.800 --> 01:47:01.900 Yeah. We're going to talk about that in a second. So, for that same prediction, 01:47:02.320 --> 01:47:10.860 I am just going to say, despite all the headwinds, 2026 will be greater than 2025. 01:47:11.540 --> 01:47:12.780 Okay. Okay. 01:47:13.260 --> 01:47:16.980 I'm not going to say how much greater, just more as a percentage. 01:47:17.660 --> 01:47:27.760 Okay. So, next up is hybrid. And, again, Ed doesn't specify plug-in hybrid versus 01:47:27.760 --> 01:47:30.680 regular hybrid. doesn't specify U.S. 01:47:30.980 --> 01:47:34.340 versus international, doesn't specify purchases versus on the road. 01:47:34.480 --> 01:47:36.480 So choose whatever you want in order to answer that question. 01:47:36.480 --> 01:47:40.000 So sticking with that, we had been like at around total sales. 01:47:40.780 --> 01:47:43.940 And now are you talking plug-in hybrid or all hybrid? 01:47:44.160 --> 01:47:48.700 All hybrids, including plug-ins. If I'm going to go with – the thing is that 01:47:48.700 --> 01:47:53.380 the figures that I found, the first ones kind of like mix hybrids, 01:47:54.160 --> 01:47:57.120 electrics, and plug-in hybrids. Okay. 01:47:57.720 --> 01:48:02.440 So that percentage is around 22%. So I guess if you take that 10%, 01:48:02.440 --> 01:48:06.120 it is, it's around 12% of the market. But here's the thing. 01:48:06.640 --> 01:48:11.960 Like Toyota, for example, just recently launched a whole bunch of upgrades to 01:48:11.960 --> 01:48:13.700 some of their most popular vehicles. 01:48:14.300 --> 01:48:17.460 And the base model that you can have, you can't have a non-hybrid anymore. 01:48:17.800 --> 01:48:20.540 They're all hybrids, period. 01:48:21.460 --> 01:48:25.740 So if we go by your standard of, will it be higher? 01:48:26.500 --> 01:48:27.120 Yes. 01:48:27.720 --> 01:48:30.740 Oh, by far. It's going to blow it away. 01:48:31.120 --> 01:48:38.300 Because Ford also was increasing their output of hybrid vehicles as well. 01:48:39.260 --> 01:48:46.840 They had backed off on some electric models and were aggressively pushing more, 01:48:47.280 --> 01:48:48.540 selling more hybrid models. 01:48:48.680 --> 01:48:52.580 In part because there was, they had launched like a couple of years ago, 01:48:52.780 --> 01:48:56.060 this little like pickup truck called Maverick. 01:48:56.260 --> 01:48:58.040 I don't know if you've seen those around. 01:48:58.600 --> 01:49:07.540 They're a small pickup truck. Okay. Small, you know, it's a small fuel efficient pickup truck. Okay. 01:49:07.540 --> 01:49:10.720 Not like the tiny Japanese ones, though, but small for U.S. standards. 01:49:10.720 --> 01:49:13.600 It's bigger than those, but it's small for U.S. standards, okay? 01:49:13.900 --> 01:49:18.900 It goes back to, like, we haven't had a pickup truck with that size dating back to the 90s, 80s. 01:49:19.620 --> 01:49:24.560 And they couldn't keep them in stock. They were, well, number one, 01:49:24.620 --> 01:49:26.840 they were super fuel efficient. They were cheap, okay? 01:49:27.600 --> 01:49:35.140 And they couldn't make enough of them. They've actually had to move production to, you know, 01:49:36.040 --> 01:49:43.760 to to increase production of of this vehicle and so yeah you've got a Ford that 01:49:43.760 --> 01:49:48.880 is expanding their hybrid production Toyota that has moved all their cars basically 01:49:48.880 --> 01:49:51.340 but several of their model lineups, 01:49:52.240 --> 01:49:55.160 including their number one most popular car in the U.S. 01:49:55.240 --> 01:49:58.680 the RAV4 that's number one car in the U.S. 01:49:59.160 --> 01:50:04.540 behind the Ford F-150 and Chevy Silverado okay that's it's a Toyota RAV4 that 01:50:04.540 --> 01:50:08.240 one you can't have unless it's a hybrid anymore, period. Okay, that's it. 01:50:08.720 --> 01:50:12.380 And Honda had been moving in the same direction, so you're going to get that 01:50:12.380 --> 01:50:15.860 that number will shoot well past the 22%. Okay. 01:50:16.500 --> 01:50:19.700 Well, 22 minus the 10, so above 12. 01:50:20.120 --> 01:50:20.280 Yeah. 01:50:20.620 --> 01:50:24.420 So I'm going to agree up. Okay, next question from Ed. 01:50:24.780 --> 01:50:29.580 And this leaves a lot of interpretation, but 01:50:29.580 --> 01:50:33.060 ed ed asks will tesla finally deliver 01:50:33.060 --> 01:50:36.840 a safe self-driving car yeah 01:50:36.840 --> 01:50:42.480 now because you can argue that their existing fsd is already is pretty good 01:50:42.480 --> 01:50:47.400 at this point like it's it's still got some issues it's not full self-driving 01:50:47.400 --> 01:50:53.060 like are you talking about the thing is what are you talking about Will we have. 01:50:53.380 --> 01:50:59.740 Do we, you know, what level would we be talking about? Right now we have level three. 01:51:00.600 --> 01:51:01.840 That's the most we got? 01:51:02.060 --> 01:51:03.200 I think so. 01:51:03.400 --> 01:51:08.400 Yeah. Okay. So I don't think we're getting a level four car. 01:51:08.400 --> 01:51:11.060 I forget the exact definitions of the difference. But the, I mean, 01:51:11.160 --> 01:51:16.440 are we talking here like, yeah, the prediction that like we talked about after 01:51:16.440 --> 01:51:21.840 10 years earlier this year where, you know, you can legally sleep. 01:51:22.020 --> 01:51:24.160 There is no steering wheel. Are we talking that? 01:51:24.940 --> 01:51:29.460 Or are we talking, you know, are we talking like Waymo kind of taxis? 01:51:30.080 --> 01:51:31.540 What are we talking about? 01:51:31.580 --> 01:51:36.960 Okay, so reality is that we don't have a level four car, okay, that really, you know. 01:51:39.140 --> 01:51:40.960 Define L3, 4, and 5 for us. 01:51:41.080 --> 01:51:47.660 So the thing is, level four basically is a car that drives itself with no human 01:51:47.660 --> 01:51:49.580 intervention inside the operational design. 01:51:50.060 --> 01:51:51.820 So we don't have that. 01:51:52.280 --> 01:51:53.600 So what's L5? 01:51:54.300 --> 01:51:55.980 I've never heard of L5. 01:51:56.260 --> 01:52:01.260 I thought it was a five-point scale. Maybe it's only four. 01:52:02.560 --> 01:52:10.540 Okay, there is level five. Okay, so human required, no, but in zones. 01:52:11.180 --> 01:52:14.340 So this is the, okay, level five is the one that doesn't require human at all. 01:52:14.480 --> 01:52:15.640 That it can drive anywhere. 01:52:16.520 --> 01:52:22.420 It's not geofenced. Okay, because we've got cars that can geofenced drive in 01:52:22.420 --> 01:52:25.560 certain conditions, but we know that they even require human intervention. 01:52:25.560 --> 01:52:31.280 We just saw that in San Francisco where there was an outage in San Francisco. 01:52:31.420 --> 01:52:34.240 And all the Waymos got confused. All the Waymos got confused. 01:52:35.440 --> 01:52:42.380 So we don't have that. I think, I don't think that we're crossing that threshold this year either. 01:52:42.480 --> 01:52:48.180 So no L4 cars in the U.S. in 2026. 01:52:48.460 --> 01:52:49.960 Yeah, especially ones that a 01:52:49.960 --> 01:52:53.480 consumer can be. Because the one that talked about is a consumer can buy. 01:52:53.640 --> 01:52:56.540 You know, they defined that a Waymo is a level four. 01:52:56.800 --> 01:53:01.300 But the reality is that, A, it requires human. B, that's got to be geofenced. 01:53:01.420 --> 01:53:04.060 So there isn't, yeah, so that's the limitation that we've got. 01:53:04.060 --> 01:53:08.100 And consumers can't buy it. It's only, you know. 01:53:08.420 --> 01:53:12.280 It's running a taxi service. You can't go out and buy a Waymo for personal use. 01:53:12.540 --> 01:53:12.740 Correct. 01:53:12.820 --> 01:53:15.880 And sleep in the back seat while it drives you somewhere. 01:53:16.160 --> 01:53:16.480 Correct. 01:53:17.200 --> 01:53:20.880 Yeah. Okay. And we don't think that's going to change in 2026. 01:53:20.880 --> 01:53:21.520 I don't think so. 01:53:22.040 --> 01:53:25.680 Now, will, let me refine, 01:53:26.180 --> 01:53:33.640 with Tesla's existing full self-driving feature, will it improve enough to the 01:53:33.640 --> 01:53:38.240 point that people like you aren't poo-pooing at safety issues. 01:53:39.140 --> 01:53:44.360 I don't think that Tesla can get to that. Okay, people like me are poo-pooing at safety issues. 01:53:44.800 --> 01:53:49.700 Because no radar at all. Even if they had just stuck with radar, just regular radar. 01:53:50.420 --> 01:53:55.360 The reality is that they have made it that they've kind of like locked themselves 01:53:55.360 --> 01:53:59.220 in in terms of progress by limiting. 01:54:00.160 --> 01:54:04.740 It's like me saying, hey, Sam, you know what? Forget about your ears. 01:54:05.200 --> 01:54:07.700 You don't need those. You can do everything with sight. 01:54:09.460 --> 01:54:16.100 No, you can't. I mean, you can, but it's not going to be as good as if you had ears as well. 01:54:16.460 --> 01:54:20.480 It's just, I mean, this is a self-imposed limitation that makes no sense whatsoever. 01:54:21.020 --> 01:54:23.280 There are lots of deaf people who might disagree with you. 01:54:27.320 --> 01:54:29.000 It's, I know what you're saying. 01:54:29.380 --> 01:54:35.020 You are, in this case, you are intentionally making the problem harder. 01:54:35.480 --> 01:54:35.960 Yes. 01:54:35.960 --> 01:54:40.320 Whether or not you can eventually solve the problem is perhaps debatable, 01:54:40.340 --> 01:54:42.300 but you were intentionally making it harder. 01:54:42.300 --> 01:54:45.840 It's the same thing as like, you know, with deaf people, of course, 01:54:45.940 --> 01:54:47.980 of course, you can do quite a lot. 01:54:48.260 --> 01:54:51.260 OK, without it, you can get. 01:54:51.400 --> 01:54:54.680 But the reality is that when you're trying to get to you, you get to the margins 01:54:54.680 --> 01:54:59.000 where you're trying to do this improvement at a certain point, there is a limitation. 01:54:59.300 --> 01:55:04.360 OK, and so, yeah, you can get to 90 plus percent of it, but you're artificially 01:55:04.360 --> 01:55:07.420 imposing a limitation that you really shouldn't have for no good reason whatsoever. 01:55:07.720 --> 01:55:12.280 It's not even cost either. It's just stubbornness. and somebody else will, 01:55:13.660 --> 01:55:18.720 beat them by using it, which is a stupid thing, even though they had such a head start. 01:55:20.140 --> 01:55:24.840 Okay. I forget if I even said it. 01:55:24.980 --> 01:55:32.240 I will agree on no, we're not going to get to the point where full self-driving 01:55:32.240 --> 01:55:33.600 will continue to improve. 01:55:33.880 --> 01:55:34.280 Yes. 01:55:34.640 --> 01:55:38.740 We have seen it each year. It has been better than the year before. 01:55:39.120 --> 01:55:44.920 It will not get to the point where unanimous, I mean, you're never unanimous on anything, 01:55:45.760 --> 01:55:54.600 but you will not get to the point where people are fairly universally acknowledging, okay, 01:55:55.320 --> 01:56:01.360 yeah, it's good enough, it's safe, you know, you really can safely You're not 01:56:01.360 --> 01:56:02.800 going to be able to buy a level four car. 01:56:02.960 --> 01:56:04.180 A true level four car today. 01:56:04.200 --> 01:56:06.640 Yeah, let's put it that way. It will not evolve to level four, 01:56:06.720 --> 01:56:08.860 it will still be level three. Is that a good way to put it? 01:56:09.040 --> 01:56:10.260 Yes. Okay. Okay. 01:56:10.920 --> 01:56:12.900 Okay, so... 01:56:14.550 --> 01:56:23.150 The next question from Bruce is, will SpaceX catch the Starship with Mechazilla? 01:56:24.490 --> 01:56:30.650 And I had to look this up because I don't follow them closely enough. 01:56:31.130 --> 01:56:40.870 Mechazilla is the giant mechanical arms on the pad gantry to catch the descending first stages of things. 01:56:40.870 --> 01:56:46.990 They have done this with—so this seems like they did it. 01:56:47.210 --> 01:56:50.210 Like, here's an article from October 14, 2024. 01:56:50.570 --> 01:56:54.390 In one of the most dramatic, high-risk spaceflights to date, 01:56:54.850 --> 01:57:00.090 SpaceX launched a gargantuan, super-heavy Starship rocket on an unpiloted test flight Sunday. 01:57:00.690 --> 01:57:04.730 Oh, okay. And then used gigantic Mechazilla mechanical arms on the pad gantry 01:57:04.730 --> 01:57:09.290 to pluck the descending first stage out of the sky. So they grabbed the first 01:57:09.290 --> 01:57:11.950 stage, but they have not grabbed the Starship itself. 01:57:12.330 --> 01:57:15.710 And so the question, I guess, is will they do that in 2026? 01:57:17.650 --> 01:57:27.230 I'm going to say no. I've been fairly bearish on the pace of SpaceX's progress. 01:57:27.470 --> 01:57:32.690 They seem to eventually get whatever they're after, but it always takes them 01:57:32.690 --> 01:57:38.090 significantly longer than they advertise as when they think their timetables will be. 01:57:39.510 --> 01:57:44.830 And I feel like they've been having a lot of issues lately. Maybe I'm wrong. 01:57:45.410 --> 01:57:48.610 I mean, Starship in particular blew up a number of times. 01:57:49.110 --> 01:57:52.890 I mean, all of their things blow up a number of times before they succeed. 01:57:53.070 --> 01:57:55.910 That's just their intentional mode of operation. 01:57:56.650 --> 01:58:00.490 Like, so, but I'm going to say no, not in 2026. 01:58:01.250 --> 01:58:03.070 I'm going to go with Sam and say no. 01:58:03.610 --> 01:58:10.850 Okay. Next up from Bruce, will Artemis 2 be a success? Is that even still scheduled 01:58:10.850 --> 01:58:12.750 for this year? I think he's butchering it back. 01:58:13.070 --> 01:58:14.230 I know. That's a good question. 01:58:14.230 --> 01:58:16.150 I mean, it was at one point scheduled. 01:58:17.760 --> 01:58:25.600 So, the current scheduled launch date is February. So, not very far away right now. 01:58:26.460 --> 01:58:28.780 Well, that's the target at the earliest launch. Right. 01:58:29.400 --> 01:58:32.140 Well, yes. But that's the—. 01:58:32.140 --> 01:58:34.400 I guess it's supposed to happen in the next few months. 01:58:34.400 --> 01:58:37.860 Currently, that is the scheduled date. I mean, they may push it back. 01:58:38.080 --> 01:58:41.980 Are there two moon astronauts rehearsed for launch day? And that was yesterday. 01:58:43.100 --> 01:58:46.880 Shit. This is closer to, you know, this happened to us already before. 01:58:47.100 --> 01:58:51.280 This happened with the first Artemis where it just sneaked up on us. Yeah. 01:58:51.800 --> 01:58:53.600 It looks like they're getting ready to roll. 01:58:53.600 --> 01:59:00.020 And to be clear, Artemis 2 is a manned mission to go around the moon and come back. 01:59:00.380 --> 01:59:03.680 So they're not landing yet. That's been pushed out even further. 01:59:03.960 --> 01:59:10.900 But first manned mission with this, I will say it won't happen in February, 01:59:10.900 --> 01:59:14.680 but it will happen this year. 01:59:15.460 --> 01:59:22.120 and let's define success as the four, they actually go around the moon and the 01:59:22.120 --> 01:59:23.700 four astronauts return alive. 01:59:24.180 --> 01:59:30.560 Yes, we want, yes. Live astronauts returned, yes, is successful. Not dead astronauts. 01:59:30.860 --> 01:59:35.160 Not dead astronauts and not an Apollo 13 scenario where they go partway and 01:59:35.160 --> 01:59:36.820 come back without getting there. 01:59:37.240 --> 01:59:39.200 I'll say yes. Let's be optimistic. 01:59:39.440 --> 01:59:43.000 Maybe partway. Well, I mean. Wait, wait, wait. Apollo 13, actually. 01:59:43.000 --> 01:59:44.320 They didn't land. They didn't land. 01:59:44.320 --> 01:59:47.740 Right, so it would be the same. Yeah, so in terms of this mission, 01:59:48.100 --> 01:59:49.540 Apollo 13 would have been successful. 01:59:50.120 --> 01:59:56.100 Well, yes, but, yes. But, like, if they did not successfully circle the moon. 01:59:56.320 --> 02:00:00.680 Like, for instance, they do an emergency escape on launch or something. That doesn't count. 02:00:01.600 --> 02:00:03.460 They did circle the moon, is what I'm saying. 02:00:03.920 --> 02:00:07.360 Well, yes, I know Apollo 13 did. But, like, I'm saying in this case, 02:00:07.520 --> 02:00:09.740 a partial, like, if they— No, no, no. 02:00:10.520 --> 02:00:17.020 If they go circle the moon, come back, and land, and they're all alive, it's a success. 02:00:17.080 --> 02:00:18.060 That's a success, yes. 02:00:18.200 --> 02:00:18.420 Okay. 02:00:18.500 --> 02:00:21.540 If any one of those elements are missing, it's not a success. 02:00:21.720 --> 02:00:22.080 Okay. 02:00:22.900 --> 02:00:28.520 Yeah, they don't circle the moon, somebody dies, et cetera, then it's not a success. 02:00:28.920 --> 02:00:33.420 I'm going to be optimistic and say yes. Again, I think it'll be delayed past 02:00:33.420 --> 02:00:35.400 February because everything ends up delayed. 02:00:37.060 --> 02:00:40.260 But let's say yes. Are you a yes? 02:00:40.820 --> 02:00:41.060 Yes. 02:00:41.720 --> 02:00:42.120 Okay. 02:00:42.940 --> 02:00:44.360 2026, yes, it will happen. 02:00:44.820 --> 02:00:48.620 Okay, next up, the social media subcategory. Okay. 02:00:49.420 --> 02:00:56.100 Will X usage increase in 2026? I'm going to say it's going to continue to decrease. 02:00:56.320 --> 02:00:57.340 It's been on the decline. 02:00:57.600 --> 02:01:02.180 It continues to decline. That thing is just slowly imploding. 02:01:02.920 --> 02:01:07.800 I mean, it still has an amazing amount of influence, like given what it is. 02:01:08.520 --> 02:01:11.520 But it's not what it was. 02:01:11.640 --> 02:01:11.900 For sure. 02:01:11.940 --> 02:01:17.940 It used to be a viable business. Now it's just Elon's pet project. 02:01:18.460 --> 02:01:18.900 Thing. 02:01:19.340 --> 02:01:22.720 It's like truth. Basically, it's like truth social right now, 02:01:22.920 --> 02:01:24.700 which doesn't make any money either. 02:01:25.060 --> 02:01:27.360 But that used to be a viable business, Sam. 02:01:27.780 --> 02:01:30.940 Well, but the question here isn't about viable businesses. It isn't about money. 02:01:31.060 --> 02:01:34.420 It's about usage. Like, like, usage keeps going down. 02:01:35.020 --> 02:01:38.940 Usage keeps going down. It's been trending downward and downward and downward continuously. 02:01:39.460 --> 02:01:40.800 And I see nothing that's going to change. 02:01:40.940 --> 02:01:44.760 And there's nothing. I mean, there's no, you know, there's no investment in it. 02:01:44.880 --> 02:01:50.040 There's no updates in it. I mean, other applications are adding features, 02:01:50.200 --> 02:01:54.880 adding things, working into it, and, you know, they're not, so. 02:01:55.840 --> 02:02:01.180 Okay. Bruce also asks, other than the change in ownership, which, 02:02:01.260 --> 02:02:04.160 by the way, has that, is that, has that fully gone through yet? 02:02:04.340 --> 02:02:11.040 Or is it still like a, we've agreed, but it hasn't happened yet? Is that done? 02:02:11.540 --> 02:02:13.460 The change of an ownership for? 02:02:13.780 --> 02:02:14.560 TikTok. TikTok. 02:02:15.040 --> 02:02:15.540 Yes. 02:02:16.180 --> 02:02:19.620 So it's completely, I knew there was an agreement, but like it. 02:02:19.620 --> 02:02:22.000 Actually- That was official over the last couple of weeks, yes. 02:02:22.520 --> 02:02:25.240 Okay, so it's done. Other than 02:02:25.240 --> 02:02:29.400 the change of ownership, will there be any significant changes to TikTok? 02:02:30.430 --> 02:02:32.150 I don't expect there to be. 02:02:32.710 --> 02:02:33.570 I'm going to say. 02:02:33.590 --> 02:02:37.110 They've kept a lot. The management team, the people, they're still the working 02:02:37.110 --> 02:02:38.030 relationship, whatever. 02:02:38.310 --> 02:02:41.870 This is more like a change in the investors. But in terms of like how it operates, 02:02:42.690 --> 02:02:45.790 there was no change as far as I tell. 02:02:45.790 --> 02:02:51.950 I'm going to say this depends on significant. Because I'm going to put it this way. 02:02:52.170 --> 02:02:54.850 Okay. Significant. I'm going to define significant more easily. 02:02:55.070 --> 02:02:57.990 Are there going to be changes like Twitter? 02:03:00.470 --> 02:03:03.170 I'm saying simple. Yeah, but we just, you know, yeah, we just... 02:03:03.170 --> 02:03:07.670 Where you see a massive exodus because of feature changes that people find repulsive 02:03:07.670 --> 02:03:09.850 or content changes that people find repulsive. 02:03:10.070 --> 02:03:13.410 Or because you've got the CEO going like fucking like just fucking around with 02:03:13.410 --> 02:03:16.910 the algorithm on a regular basis just in order to just... No, 02:03:17.090 --> 02:03:18.850 you're not going to have any of that shit. No. 02:03:20.090 --> 02:03:23.750 I'm going to say I'm not going to define it that way. 02:03:25.070 --> 02:03:28.550 Well, I will say I agree with you. I don't think there will be something that 02:03:28.550 --> 02:03:30.650 dramatic in the way that you described. 02:03:31.090 --> 02:03:37.370 However, I think TikTok's influence peaked in 2025. 02:03:38.530 --> 02:03:45.110 And you're going to see a decline and degradation that I don't necessarily, 02:03:45.370 --> 02:03:49.810 it's not necessarily because of the ownership changes necessarily, 02:03:49.810 --> 02:03:58.150 but just in the last few months, I've already seen things like increases in 02:03:58.150 --> 02:03:59.890 the percentage of ads you see, 02:04:00.330 --> 02:04:07.250 dark UX patterns where it makes it harder to swipe past an ad without accidentally clicking on it. 02:04:08.170 --> 02:04:11.630 In the last couple of weeks, people have been complaining that there was some 02:04:11.630 --> 02:04:15.850 sort of bug in the algorithm where you were all of a sudden seeing all kinds 02:04:15.850 --> 02:04:17.630 of old crap instead of new stuff. 02:04:17.850 --> 02:04:21.570 And I've noticed as well that it's not, 02:04:22.370 --> 02:04:26.750 As responsive in figuring out the right things to show me, 02:04:26.930 --> 02:04:32.730 I think they're playing with things and tweaking with things to try to improve 02:04:32.730 --> 02:04:37.770 monetization and improve, you know, retention. 02:04:38.270 --> 02:04:45.270 And that in the process, just like almost every fucking social media company 02:04:45.270 --> 02:04:51.690 out there, that they start breaking the things that people liked about it. 02:04:51.690 --> 02:04:56.050 by trying to make it more efficient at making money. 02:04:56.550 --> 02:04:59.930 And so it becomes less desirable over time. 02:05:00.230 --> 02:05:08.030 And I think TikTok is in that cycle and they've already peaked and they're on the downslope. 02:05:08.250 --> 02:05:15.910 Now, do I think they're going to have the kind of dramatic decline that Twitter slash X had? 02:05:15.990 --> 02:05:22.490 I don't think it's going to be as dramatic, but I think there is going to be a, you know, 02:05:23.350 --> 02:05:30.470 general feeling at the end of 2026 that it was not as good or not as compelling 02:05:30.470 --> 02:05:33.730 as it was in 2025. There's my prediction. 02:05:34.150 --> 02:05:38.270 Well, I'm just going to think that I think that most people will not notice 02:05:38.270 --> 02:05:40.410 any significant change in what's happening whatsoever. 02:05:41.090 --> 02:05:43.830 That's just going to be my opinion. They're just going to operate steady as 02:05:43.830 --> 02:05:44.810 she goes, like right now. 02:05:44.850 --> 02:05:49.730 Well, and my prediction is no step change that people will notice like that 02:05:49.730 --> 02:05:54.010 and complaining No, just a gradual decline over the course of the year. 02:05:54.570 --> 02:05:59.650 Well, I'm not going to predict that. I think that 2026 is going to be, 02:05:59.810 --> 02:06:03.710 my opinion is just no significant, nobody's going to be bitching that, 02:06:03.830 --> 02:06:05.950 oh my God, they fucked up the application by the end of the year. 02:06:07.110 --> 02:06:12.450 Any differently in terms of, well, here's the thing, everybody complains that 02:06:12.450 --> 02:06:13.210 everything's been fucked. 02:06:14.510 --> 02:06:18.230 Like at the end of the year, even when nothing changes. However, 02:06:18.370 --> 02:06:23.370 I don't think that there's going to be an exodus of users because of any significant 02:06:23.370 --> 02:06:24.910 changes to it. There you go. 02:06:25.510 --> 02:06:30.170 Okay. Next up, and this is for me a more generic question. 02:06:30.990 --> 02:06:36.550 What does the social media landscape in general look like at the end of the year compared to now? 02:06:36.790 --> 02:06:39.790 I mean, we've had sort of, we talked about X. Yeah. 02:06:40.210 --> 02:06:48.350 The various ex-competitors, it looks like BlueSky and Threads are still the two major ones. 02:06:48.510 --> 02:06:52.350 I'm a lot more on BlueSky. My wife is a lot more on Threads. 02:06:52.410 --> 02:06:56.130 I think you're more on Threads than BlueSky, right, Yvonne? I'm not sure. 02:06:57.370 --> 02:07:01.810 I will say that I've been more on Threads than on BlueSky. I am using BlueSky. 02:07:02.010 --> 02:07:06.890 I am using Threads. I must admit that I am barely ever logging into Mastodon anymore. 02:07:07.130 --> 02:07:13.610 Me too. Like, I will occasionally check in, but it was my go-to for a long time. 02:07:13.710 --> 02:07:13.790 For a while. 02:07:14.090 --> 02:07:16.030 Blue Sky has taken its place for me. 02:07:16.370 --> 02:07:19.590 Yeah. So I am going to both. 02:07:19.710 --> 02:07:27.530 I'm upset, by the way, that, like, the people who made TweetBot and Ivory as 02:07:27.530 --> 02:07:31.810 clients, they said they were going to be working on a Blue Sky client, 02:07:31.830 --> 02:07:33.650 but it hasn't come out yet. 02:07:33.650 --> 02:07:39.370 But apparently they like one of the it's only a team of like two to three people working on it. 02:07:39.470 --> 02:07:41.930 And one of them had like a major family health crisis. 02:07:42.150 --> 02:07:45.810 So it's delayed indefinitely, which I don't blame them for at all. 02:07:47.110 --> 02:07:52.310 Those issues are more important. But but yeah, I'm kind of there are things 02:07:52.310 --> 02:07:56.170 about the official Blue Sky application that piss me off and make me really 02:07:56.170 --> 02:07:57.810 wish I had one from those guys. 02:07:58.770 --> 02:08:03.010 But but it's still it's the place I use all the time. And the reason is, 02:08:03.130 --> 02:08:05.650 it's where the people I want to follow are. 02:08:05.890 --> 02:08:10.730 It's where the news accounts are. It's where the entertainment accounts are. 02:08:11.010 --> 02:08:17.730 It's, you know, all this kind of stuff. And to me, more than anything else, that's what matters. 02:08:18.130 --> 02:08:24.170 And it is, you can get very easily, your default feed is still reverse chronological 02:08:24.170 --> 02:08:26.570 and not algorithmic. And that actually matters a lot to me. 02:08:26.890 --> 02:08:27.710 Yeah, I know. 02:08:29.690 --> 02:08:33.430 So does this environment change significantly? 02:08:33.870 --> 02:08:38.930 Do we have new players? Do we see any big changes? 02:08:39.510 --> 02:08:42.950 Like somebody declining? I mean, we said X is going to decline further. 02:08:43.130 --> 02:08:44.550 Truth social will take over the world. 02:08:45.400 --> 02:08:48.760 I mean, we said X is going to decline, but it's not going to disappear or anything. 02:08:48.920 --> 02:08:50.700 It's still going to be bigger than these competitors. 02:08:50.900 --> 02:08:54.660 Truth social will take over the world, Sam. 02:08:55.500 --> 02:08:57.420 Yes. Yes, I'm sure that's it. 02:08:58.100 --> 02:09:02.180 Well, here's the reality. In terms of daily active users right now, 02:09:02.300 --> 02:09:05.060 I think, like, I saw certain stats recently. 02:09:05.640 --> 02:09:09.200 Threats has been eclipsing X on a global basis. 02:09:09.200 --> 02:09:10.580 Have they actually passed X? 02:09:11.080 --> 02:09:11.520 Yeah. 02:09:11.760 --> 02:09:13.560 Okay. I'll check again. 02:09:13.560 --> 02:09:13.940 I haven't heard that yet. 02:09:13.940 --> 02:09:14.860 I 02:09:14.860 --> 02:09:16.040 I'll check again but. 02:09:16.040 --> 02:09:18.400 But it's got to the point paying attention so. 02:09:18.400 --> 02:09:22.980 Yeah i there now i i've seen several posts showing. 02:09:22.980 --> 02:09:28.200 I i think i saw a graph at one point that said it was approaching but not one 02:09:28.200 --> 02:09:30.000 that had actually passed i. 02:09:30.000 --> 02:09:37.840 Think it was one as of late 2025 threads has surpassed x in global daily active mobile users. 02:09:37.840 --> 02:09:40.180 Okay excellent i. 02:09:40.180 --> 02:09:43.720 Know it was recent now so so that's that's where we're at right now that. 02:09:43.720 --> 02:09:47.540 I still can't get into the threads habit i check it occasionally but i can't 02:09:47.540 --> 02:09:54.240 get into a habit there blue sky is my habit now blue sky and tiktok are where i am regularly so i. 02:09:54.240 --> 02:09:58.760 Mean think about that i mean you want to talk about squandering a lead i mean but. 02:09:58.760 --> 02:09:59.100 Yeah but. 02:09:59.100 --> 02:10:03.440 He doesn't care i mean elon doesn't seem to give a shit. 02:10:03.440 --> 02:10:06.620 Well the thing is it's still like 02:10:06.620 --> 02:10:14.160 you still find not in the way that it used to of course but you still find conversations 02:10:14.160 --> 02:10:20.800 on X being things that can sometimes drive news coverage in a way that you still 02:10:20.800 --> 02:10:24.340 don't have on these other platforms true but. 02:10:26.960 --> 02:10:33.000 But Twitter doesn't move the needle in terms of those conversations as it did 02:10:33.000 --> 02:10:34.140 like five, six years ago. 02:10:34.280 --> 02:10:35.160 Oh, no, not at all. 02:10:37.480 --> 02:10:40.280 Their relevance is like completely like. 02:10:40.500 --> 02:10:46.020 You can make an argument that the reason like somebody like Musk would want 02:10:46.020 --> 02:10:50.960 this is not about the money. It's all about the influence and driving the conversation. 02:10:51.000 --> 02:10:55.320 But even by that metric, he's been screwing it up. 02:10:55.320 --> 02:10:58.340 Oh, he has completely diminished it so much. 02:10:58.840 --> 02:11:04.320 Yeah. Okay, next up, consumer tech slash AI. 02:11:05.220 --> 02:11:10.020 From Ed, which AI company will be the first to fold up in bankruptcy? 02:11:10.200 --> 02:11:13.860 And I need to caveat this. There are hundreds of, if not thousands, 02:11:14.440 --> 02:11:18.480 of AI companies. There are only a few that are big and in the headlines. 02:11:18.560 --> 02:11:22.480 And I don't think any of those big ones will go bankrupt this year. 02:11:22.720 --> 02:11:25.380 None of the big ones go bankrupt this year. No, no. 02:11:25.800 --> 02:11:27.080 We're talking the Anthropics. 02:11:28.200 --> 02:11:33.260 You know, whatchamacallit. We got Anthropic, OpenAI. 02:11:34.800 --> 02:11:36.560 Musk's XAI or whatever. 02:11:36.840 --> 02:11:37.740 Musk's XAI. 02:11:38.480 --> 02:11:44.780 And, of course, Google is in this game. A bunch of other companies are, you know, doing stuff. 02:11:45.100 --> 02:11:50.060 Look, the crazy thing, and how this mixes XAI with X, 02:11:50.320 --> 02:11:59.220 okay, by the way, is that Elon Musk made whole his investors on the Twitter 02:11:59.220 --> 02:12:07.280 buy by basically just filling Twitter with stock in XAI. 02:12:07.660 --> 02:12:11.860 That's it. That's what he wound up doing. 02:12:12.860 --> 02:12:13.180 Oh, gosh. 02:12:15.100 --> 02:12:22.120 Because, I mean, the value itself of Twitter is, it's plummeted. 02:12:22.380 --> 02:12:22.940 Right. 02:12:24.070 --> 02:12:29.890 Okay, moving on. And then I realized I made a big mistake, but we'll do this first. 02:12:31.030 --> 02:12:37.430 Will there be changes in AI market share? If so, which one will gain the most? This is from Bruce. 02:12:38.470 --> 02:12:40.310 And how do you even define this? 02:12:40.930 --> 02:12:43.150 I'm sorry, I misunderstood. Say it again? 02:12:43.490 --> 02:12:49.110 Will there be changes in AI market share? If so, which one will gain the most? This is by Bruce. 02:12:49.110 --> 02:12:53.130 Problem is, how do you define it? Yeah, that's the problem. we don't really 02:12:53.130 --> 02:12:56.850 have any good metrics on that right now it's not like we have active daily active 02:12:56.850 --> 02:12:59.230 users things or whatever i don't know. 02:12:59.230 --> 02:13:02.310 We occasionally get some of that but even 02:13:02.310 --> 02:13:05.610 there it's like what's the difference between like somebody using 02:13:05.610 --> 02:13:09.070 the chat box bot app versus somebody 02:13:09.070 --> 02:13:12.170 using the api to build something versus somebody 02:13:12.170 --> 02:13:15.370 using coding tools based on that platform 02:13:15.370 --> 02:13:18.750 there are all kinds of different usages and you 02:13:18.750 --> 02:13:21.890 know so far like you know open ai 02:13:21.890 --> 02:13:25.610 and chat gpt have gotten the most press but you 02:13:25.610 --> 02:13:28.870 know a whole bunch of these others are actually doing 02:13:28.870 --> 02:13:32.170 a bunch of stuff you you the anthropic stuff 02:13:32.170 --> 02:13:37.830 is big google's stuff is big i think if anything yeah google google maybe gets 02:13:37.830 --> 02:13:42.170 the least attention because it's part of google instead of an independent company 02:13:42.170 --> 02:13:49.190 but google's doing a bunch of stuff you know i i don't know like how to how 02:13:49.190 --> 02:13:50.610 to measure this maybe maybe let. 02:13:50.610 --> 02:13:52.790 Me you talk about google and you 02:13:52.790 --> 02:13:59.750 know we talked about agent ai okay look i yesterday i went to a wendy's in. 02:13:59.750 --> 02:14:01.730 Orlando okay they. 02:14:01.730 --> 02:14:08.410 Have the drive-through this ai agent that's powered by google i just like I 02:14:08.410 --> 02:14:11.490 just looked up what it is to take your order. Okay. 02:14:11.630 --> 02:14:11.710 Right. 02:14:12.130 --> 02:14:14.730 By the way, extremely accurate. 02:14:15.420 --> 02:14:19.420 far more accurate than my experience than the people taking my order. 02:14:19.420 --> 02:14:22.480 Which which by the way this is one of those things where 02:14:22.480 --> 02:14:28.340 they have tried this in various trials at various points over the last two years 02:14:28.340 --> 02:14:32.980 and there have been a few spectacular flame outs where it's gone badly but like 02:14:32.980 --> 02:14:37.480 everything else in this space every three months the technology is dramatically 02:14:37.480 --> 02:14:41.160 better than it was three months ago so i don't think but. 02:14:41.160 --> 02:14:44.880 Yeah but i don't think that they had been using this google AI agent now. 02:14:45.060 --> 02:14:47.840 And I think that they went and they had tried it before just with the voice 02:14:47.840 --> 02:14:50.620 recognition and whatever and just blah, blah, blah. And that didn't, 02:14:50.740 --> 02:14:52.500 that, that, that, that tried and failed. 02:14:52.520 --> 02:14:56.800 Some of the examples before is like McDonald's famously tried this and it was 02:14:56.800 --> 02:15:00.180 ordering all kinds of weird crap for people that wasn't what they wanted. 02:15:00.180 --> 02:15:03.800 Like, like McFlurry's with bacon added and stuff like that. 02:15:04.320 --> 02:15:08.400 And then there was another fast food company that did it and somebody was able 02:15:08.400 --> 02:15:13.280 to successfully order 10,000 cups of free water, you know, things like this. 02:15:13.880 --> 02:15:17.360 But like I said, it's getting better. So your experience was good. 02:15:17.900 --> 02:15:21.320 I mean, it was dead on balls accurate. I mean, it was perfect. 02:15:22.140 --> 02:15:25.880 Look, I, you know, I go through these drive-thrus many times. 02:15:26.420 --> 02:15:30.600 The reason I'm not somebody that regularly likes to eat fast food, 02:15:31.780 --> 02:15:38.200 but it's the only drive-thru place that my son can eat their food. 02:15:38.200 --> 02:15:41.340 If we're on the road and we don't have anything else, it's the only one that 02:15:41.340 --> 02:15:46.040 has, It's stuff that is allergy-free. So it's Wendy's. 02:15:46.700 --> 02:15:50.460 And, man, I don't know how I struggled with getting somebody to take my order 02:15:50.460 --> 02:15:52.580 at Wendy's over and over. 02:15:52.800 --> 02:15:59.260 And the damn agent was faster, more accurate to take an order than any person 02:15:59.260 --> 02:16:01.960 that I've had in recent times. Or most of them. 02:16:04.280 --> 02:16:10.540 Okay so how do we how do we even answer this question i don't think we've got i don't think we've got. 02:16:10.540 --> 02:16:12.760 Good metrics i don't know i don't think we got. 02:16:12.760 --> 02:16:20.100 Because most of them are private companies like they're i don't know i i think that's the. 02:16:20.100 --> 02:16:23.760 Problem because most of them are private companies it's not like if we if we 02:16:23.760 --> 02:16:29.540 could go like say hey let's compare open ai's revenue with like xai or whatever 02:16:29.540 --> 02:16:34.180 but even though when it's part of google we can't even break that out anyway so we don't know. 02:16:34.180 --> 02:16:36.940 Let's let's let's try to define it 02:16:36.940 --> 02:16:42.440 this way in the last year or two whenever people have generally been talking 02:16:42.440 --> 02:16:47.340 about the default thing they talk about is chat chat gpt will that will that 02:16:47.340 --> 02:16:55.300 change will we be talking about like clod or gemini i'm gonna say more than chat gpt i. 02:16:55.300 --> 02:16:56.740 Don't think it's changing no. 02:16:56.740 --> 02:17:02.340 I i will agree like and and that hides a bunch of stuff behind the surface like 02:17:02.340 --> 02:17:05.160 that's not the best measure but i think that's what it's. 02:17:05.160 --> 02:17:08.920 The only one that we've got right now because we don't have enough data anywhere else so yeah. 02:17:08.920 --> 02:17:14.300 Okay uh next up for me this is a repeat question i asked it last year too will 02:17:14.300 --> 02:17:16.700 there be any major quote-unquote incident, 02:17:17.760 --> 02:17:20.620 that will be blamed on ai that's like 02:17:20.620 --> 02:17:23.420 big enough that we talk about it on the show and everybody is like 02:17:23.420 --> 02:17:26.100 yeah ai screwed this up and it 02:17:26.100 --> 02:17:30.780 had major real world consequences now we have to define major because we've 02:17:30.780 --> 02:17:35.320 already had like a whole bunch of suicides blamed on people talking to chat 02:17:35.320 --> 02:17:44.300 gpt and other ai agents you know but what do we mean by major and you know what do we think here i. 02:17:44.300 --> 02:17:46.120 Don't know i i, 02:17:47.510 --> 02:17:48.430 I don't know. 02:17:48.810 --> 02:17:53.230 I'm going to define it as we have a major news story where something goes horribly 02:17:53.230 --> 02:18:01.350 wrong that is talked about on this show for like a whole segment where the root 02:18:01.350 --> 02:18:03.810 cause is determined to be an AI screw up. 02:18:04.070 --> 02:18:07.050 Here's a reality. We already had that happen. 02:18:07.570 --> 02:18:08.510 Well, tariffs. 02:18:09.070 --> 02:18:09.530 Yeah. 02:18:13.030 --> 02:18:18.670 Yes, we can argue that, you know, all the initial tariffs on, 02:18:18.750 --> 02:18:22.950 like, the big, like, whatever you call that, Freedom Day or whatever the hell 02:18:22.950 --> 02:18:25.610 he called it, we're all determined by AI. 02:18:25.690 --> 02:18:27.130 Liberation Day. Liberation Day. 02:18:27.310 --> 02:18:28.530 Liberation Day, yes. 02:18:29.650 --> 02:18:32.690 And how we tariffed penguins. 02:18:32.870 --> 02:18:33.970 Penguins, yes. 02:18:34.770 --> 02:18:38.070 So we already had it happen, so it's going to happen again. 02:18:38.070 --> 02:18:41.090 It's gonna happen again okay i i will 02:18:41.090 --> 02:18:44.290 say there will be at least another incident equivalent to 02:18:44.290 --> 02:18:52.190 or greater than the tariffs that are attributed to ai for sure yes okay so now 02:18:52.190 --> 02:19:00.510 it is time for break that is the end of our our our our technology section but 02:19:00.510 --> 02:19:03.710 here's the big mistake i made Because I was about to say, 02:19:03.930 --> 02:19:06.530 and our next segment is hodgepodge, and that's the end. 02:19:07.250 --> 02:19:09.810 But I completely skipped our economy section. 02:19:10.770 --> 02:19:12.510 Yeah, I was wondering when we were going to hit the economy. 02:19:13.090 --> 02:19:17.990 I figured it was coming next. Economy is usually before technology in the order 02:19:17.990 --> 02:19:19.850 we have used for years upon years. 02:19:20.070 --> 02:19:23.210 But I just accidentally skipped the whole damn section. 02:19:23.750 --> 02:19:26.610 It's a relatively short section. We don't have that many questions, 02:19:26.650 --> 02:19:30.530 and most of them are going to be up-down questions. But let's take a break and 02:19:30.530 --> 02:19:36.250 we'll come back and we'll do economy in the wrong order. Sorry, my bad. Here we go. 02:21:20.020 --> 02:21:25.040 Okay, we are back, and now it's time for economy. We divide this into non-numeric and numeric. 02:21:25.160 --> 02:21:29.160 There are only two in the non-numeric category this time. Number one from Ed, 02:21:29.820 --> 02:21:34.340 will we enter into a formal—well, he says depression. I'll just say recession 02:21:34.340 --> 02:21:36.360 at this point. Will we have a recession? 02:21:37.000 --> 02:21:40.140 Yes. I'm predicting a recession in 2026. 02:21:42.420 --> 02:21:45.440 Okay. Yes, I'll agree. Okay. 02:21:46.460 --> 02:21:52.480 That's not a good sign. will it we both agree you know we may be wrong what 02:21:52.480 --> 02:21:56.020 i'm saying right well and to use. 02:21:56.020 --> 02:22:01.380 To use ad's words will it be bad enough that people start comparing it to the depression. 02:22:02.340 --> 02:22:05.340 No i don't think so but but but yeah 02:22:05.340 --> 02:22:10.760 but we we are we are going to have a we're on track to have a recession now 02:22:10.760 --> 02:22:17.080 it may be that it's going to be pushed towards the second half of the year And 02:22:17.080 --> 02:22:22.640 the reason is because the tax cuts, okay, 02:22:23.200 --> 02:22:30.300 people are going to start filing their taxes now based on some preliminary estimates that I did. 02:22:32.170 --> 02:22:41.210 I mean, I, that have not gotten a tax refund in 20 years, may get one, of all crazy things. 02:22:41.830 --> 02:22:46.370 So a lot of people are going to be getting money back somehow. 02:22:47.190 --> 02:22:48.490 So that may... 02:22:48.490 --> 02:22:52.470 But concentrated it more on higher incomes than lower, right? 02:22:52.650 --> 02:22:56.390 Yeah, so it will still do this whole thing. We keep talking about this K-shaped 02:22:56.390 --> 02:23:00.050 economy, you know, where we've got people with money or keep spending, 02:23:00.350 --> 02:23:03.930 but the poor people keep getting fucked, the middle class and the poor. 02:23:04.090 --> 02:23:07.730 So we'll keep getting more of that. But what I'm saying is that that may stave 02:23:07.730 --> 02:23:11.950 off a recession into the second half because of that. 02:23:12.070 --> 02:23:16.950 It's just because we're going to get all that money goosed in from the tax cuts. 02:23:17.070 --> 02:23:23.010 But look, with so many things moving in the other direction, 02:23:23.230 --> 02:23:24.990 it's just a short-term boost. 02:23:25.270 --> 02:23:28.830 And what are the problems with upper-income people? 02:23:29.970 --> 02:23:34.350 getting getting these, which is it's the whole issue with trickle down economics. 02:23:35.090 --> 02:23:38.310 It's it's just that a lot of times it doesn't fucking trickle down. 02:23:38.870 --> 02:23:39.350 Right. 02:23:40.290 --> 02:23:43.590 So that's why I think we're getting a recession. So anyway. 02:23:44.390 --> 02:23:45.730 OK, but no depression. 02:23:46.330 --> 02:23:48.690 I don't think we're going to get a depression in 2026. 02:23:49.250 --> 02:23:54.290 OK, next up for me, we talked about the Supreme Court and tariffs and we agreed 02:23:54.290 --> 02:23:59.450 that whatever they do, it's not going to have a dramatic effect on the actual tariffs. 02:23:59.610 --> 02:24:02.350 But more generally, what's going on with tariffs? 02:24:02.530 --> 02:24:06.810 Because whether the court gets involved or not, you know, is Trump going to 02:24:06.810 --> 02:24:10.350 backslide? Is Trump going to change things? Are you going to screw with them more? 02:24:10.930 --> 02:24:14.490 Has everybody just adapted to them and now they're the reality and no one cares 02:24:14.490 --> 02:24:16.310 anymore? What's going on with tariffs in 2020? 02:24:16.590 --> 02:24:22.450 It's not, listen, tariffs, it's not that people have just whatever and adapted. 02:24:23.030 --> 02:24:27.670 We've had a record number of bankruptcies this year, Sam. 02:24:29.000 --> 02:24:31.120 A lot of those are tariff-driven. 02:24:31.440 --> 02:24:34.480 Right, right. But that was 2025. What's going to happen in 2026? 02:24:35.020 --> 02:24:38.420 Is everybody who's going to go bankrupt already done so and now we're good? 02:24:38.560 --> 02:24:45.080 No, it's just, no, no. The effects of the tariffs, many times, are delayed. 02:24:45.820 --> 02:24:48.620 So we will see more effects of the tariffs coming to the years. 02:24:48.780 --> 02:24:53.960 Part of why I expect a recession, because the reality is that a lot of manufacturers 02:24:53.960 --> 02:24:57.400 had moved in inventory ahead of tariffs. 02:24:57.400 --> 02:25:01.800 Once the inventories run out, once profit margins start getting increased, 02:25:01.960 --> 02:25:06.140 a lot of people had delayed increasing prices because of uncertainty of what 02:25:06.140 --> 02:25:08.220 the final tariffs were going to be. Okay? 02:25:09.620 --> 02:25:14.700 More companies have started announcing more price increases. Like automakers. 02:25:15.500 --> 02:25:19.900 They've been like, some had held the line a couple of months ago on the prices, 02:25:20.140 --> 02:25:24.860 so they've been, you know, sending more price increases. 02:25:24.860 --> 02:25:35.820 So you're going to get more and more effects on inflation and the economy in 2026 tariffs. 02:25:36.060 --> 02:25:39.860 A lot of just just a lot of the effects have been delayed. 02:25:40.380 --> 02:25:41.680 It's just the way it is. 02:25:42.080 --> 02:25:49.920 So what's your what's your one line summary on what's going on with tariffs in 2026? 02:25:50.990 --> 02:25:55.910 I think that there will be, just like it happened a couple of months ago, 02:25:56.650 --> 02:25:59.130 where, didn't you see that the 02:25:59.130 --> 02:26:03.390 Brazil tariffs all of a sudden Trump backtracked on a whole bunch of them? 02:26:04.090 --> 02:26:06.290 On coffee, on bananas. 02:26:06.490 --> 02:26:08.490 And some other stuff. I believe I remember vaguely, yes. 02:26:08.950 --> 02:26:13.590 Yeah, because prices of those goods were getting out of control, okay? 02:26:13.590 --> 02:26:21.210 I think that as the year progresses and as these inventory things start with 02:26:21.210 --> 02:26:23.870 new stuff that keeps prices keep coming up, 02:26:24.090 --> 02:26:29.250 you're going to start seeing more pressure on more backtracking on a number of these tariffs. 02:26:31.610 --> 02:26:39.730 Because it's going to keep, I think the biggest issue is it's going to start 02:26:39.730 --> 02:26:42.410 impacting profit margins of a lot of larger companies. 02:26:42.950 --> 02:26:50.170 now, where they had, but remember, hey, if I stockpiled whatever materials into last year, and then, 02:26:50.890 --> 02:26:55.290 okay, now I've got to use the new, more expensive ones, because right out of 02:26:55.290 --> 02:26:59.550 the old cheap ones, right, that I stockpiled, and all of a sudden, 02:26:59.570 --> 02:27:02.350 I can't just hold off on raising prices. 02:27:02.510 --> 02:27:08.070 I'm going to start raising prices, but maybe consumers can't absorb the bigger 02:27:08.070 --> 02:27:10.590 prices because unemployment is rising. 02:27:11.110 --> 02:27:15.150 And so that's going to start squeezing profit margins. The moment that Wall 02:27:15.150 --> 02:27:18.790 Street starts saying that profits are down, profits are down, 02:27:18.990 --> 02:27:21.850 profits are down, guess where the pressure is going to go to? 02:27:22.610 --> 02:27:24.750 They're going to be lining up at the White House and I guess, 02:27:24.850 --> 02:27:27.670 I don't know, somebody's going to give him, handing out more gold and, 02:27:27.950 --> 02:27:31.670 I don't know, trinkets to get tariff relief. 02:27:32.450 --> 02:27:37.150 Okay. My tariff prediction, I think, is similar to yours. 02:27:37.790 --> 02:27:42.830 we're going to continue to, you know, besides the SCOTUS thing we already talked 02:27:42.830 --> 02:27:46.410 about, we're going to continue to see Donald Trump, 02:27:47.320 --> 02:27:50.960 tinker with them throughout the year up down 02:27:50.960 --> 02:27:53.960 sideways making a deal here making a 02:27:53.960 --> 02:28:00.840 deal there exceptions here exceptions there and it's just one of it's one of 02:28:00.840 --> 02:28:05.920 the toys he likes to play with and he will continue playing it with it yes and 02:28:05.920 --> 02:28:13.420 the the actual results yeah you just went through a litany of various effects we can see. 02:28:13.840 --> 02:28:18.780 But I will say that the actual results will continue to be somewhat muddled 02:28:18.780 --> 02:28:25.200 in that because there's a delay between cause and effect, and because there 02:28:25.200 --> 02:28:27.300 are all kinds of other things going on too, 02:28:27.580 --> 02:28:31.100 there'll always be a little bit of, you know, 02:28:32.320 --> 02:28:34.180 plausible deniability of like, 02:28:34.180 --> 02:28:37.140 whatever's happened, oh, that's not the tariffs, that's something else. 02:28:37.340 --> 02:28:44.300 That's this, that's this, or whatever. And so it won't be completely clear cut. 02:28:44.600 --> 02:28:48.480 But Daniel Trump, that's a new one. 02:28:48.820 --> 02:28:50.500 That's a new one. Daniel. Yeah, Danny. 02:28:51.120 --> 02:28:56.800 Daniel Trump. But Donald Trump will continue to play with his tariffs. It's his favorite toy. 02:28:57.300 --> 02:29:02.860 And we will continue to see general negative effects on the economy that some 02:29:02.860 --> 02:29:08.760 people blame on tariffs, but which other people argue are unrelated. There you go. 02:29:08.800 --> 02:29:13.460 Oh, yeah. A lot of people argue they're unrelated because of how delayed the effect has been. Yes. 02:29:14.060 --> 02:29:18.000 Right. Okay. Numeric economy predictions first. 02:29:18.320 --> 02:29:23.120 First up, this is the first one from my son Alex. He wants to know, 02:29:23.240 --> 02:29:25.160 will one plus one equal two? 02:29:26.080 --> 02:29:26.640 Hmm. 02:29:27.300 --> 02:29:33.280 This is a tough one. For sufficiently large values of one. 02:29:33.980 --> 02:29:39.040 I mean, yeah, I mean, it could be, you know, when you've got a tariff one versus 02:29:39.040 --> 02:29:44.460 a tax one versus a candy one. 02:29:45.430 --> 02:29:49.690 I'm going to say this is the year that one plus one breaks the two. It doesn't add up. 02:29:49.970 --> 02:29:51.370 It doesn't add up this year. 02:29:51.770 --> 02:29:52.070 Yeah. 02:29:53.790 --> 02:29:56.650 So one plus one will be more than two this year. 02:29:56.970 --> 02:29:58.170 Yes. Correct. 02:29:58.910 --> 02:30:02.790 Okay. I'm going to go with one plus one is going to be less than two this year. 02:30:05.050 --> 02:30:05.490 Shit. 02:30:05.970 --> 02:30:07.250 It's going to be that year. 02:30:07.690 --> 02:30:09.210 It's going to be that year. Damn. 02:30:11.050 --> 02:30:16.730 Okay. Next up from Bruce. CPI, that's consumer price index, as of Q3. 02:30:17.410 --> 02:30:21.250 Now, in previous years, I'll just say this, previous years, for all of these 02:30:21.250 --> 02:30:22.710 numeric ones, I've gone through, 02:30:22.810 --> 02:30:27.810 I've used a spreadsheet, I've looked at the last 20 years, and I've done a projection 02:30:27.810 --> 02:30:33.150 of a range that I thought was reasonable based on previous variability, blah, blah, blah. 02:30:33.510 --> 02:30:37.330 The last two years, I've been like, I don't have time for that crap. 02:30:37.710 --> 02:30:39.170 I'm just going to say up or down. 02:30:39.870 --> 02:30:45.310 I'm going to say CPI, which is it's basically inflation, right? 02:30:45.490 --> 02:30:47.270 It's the main measure of inflation. 02:30:47.510 --> 02:30:51.310 Consumer price index, yeah. There's producer price index, there's a consumer 02:30:51.310 --> 02:30:53.430 price index. The one that we look at most of us. 02:30:53.690 --> 02:30:56.210 Inflation is the rate of change of CPI, right? 02:30:57.110 --> 02:31:00.890 Yes, right. I mean, consumer price index would be zero, it's flat. 02:31:01.030 --> 02:31:03.410 It could be deflationary. CPI could be negative. 02:31:03.690 --> 02:31:07.150 I'm going to say we're up. Inflation is going to be up over... 02:31:07.150 --> 02:31:10.250 Q3 next year is going to be higher than Q3 this year. 02:31:10.550 --> 02:31:10.650 Right. 02:31:13.410 --> 02:31:16.790 We're going to have, the CPI will be positive, basically. 02:31:17.010 --> 02:31:19.510 We're going to have inflation. And what you're saying is it's going to be a 02:31:19.510 --> 02:31:22.090 higher inflation rate than 2025. 02:31:23.110 --> 02:31:28.730 Yes. And we're talking year over year number as of the Q3 number because we 02:31:28.730 --> 02:31:30.010 won't have Q4 number yet. 02:31:30.290 --> 02:31:31.670 I'm going with a yes too. 02:31:32.190 --> 02:31:32.610 Okay. 02:31:33.350 --> 02:31:34.550 I'll agree with that one. Okay. 02:31:34.950 --> 02:31:39.650 How about GDP? Now you've predicted an inflation which implies reduction in GDP. 02:31:41.360 --> 02:31:51.380 I'm going to GDP is going to be end of Q3 GDP is going to be is that I mean we're going to have, 02:31:52.060 --> 02:31:57.280 lower growth than 20 so let's let's make sure we're. 02:31:57.280 --> 02:32:01.660 Very specific on here are we talking about the rate of growth of GDP are we 02:32:01.660 --> 02:32:02.960 talking about absolute GDP. 02:32:02.960 --> 02:32:07.640 Yeah so the question is we're going to be negative. Well, if we start a recession, 02:32:08.620 --> 02:32:09.680 here's the thing, right? 02:32:09.920 --> 02:32:16.380 So a recession requires two quarters of negative GDP to be officially called a recession. 02:32:16.380 --> 02:32:20.240 Negative GDP growth. Negative GDP growth. Negative GDP would be an entirely different scenario. 02:32:20.400 --> 02:32:24.580 Yeah, negative GDP, that would be quite a problem. Negative GDP growth. Fuck. 02:32:25.600 --> 02:32:31.060 The thing is that I don't think we're going to be in negative GDP growth until Q3. 02:32:31.800 --> 02:32:40.580 Okay. So are we talking— So I expect— Q3, but we're here, we're just comparing—well, 02:32:40.640 --> 02:32:41.880 actually, do it however you want. 02:32:42.020 --> 02:32:48.660 I'm going to compare and say the rate of GDP growth reported for Q3 will be 02:32:48.660 --> 02:32:53.360 less than the rate of GDP growth reported for Q3 2025. 02:32:54.440 --> 02:32:58.380 So I'm not even saying positive or negative. I'm just saying lower growth. 02:32:58.580 --> 02:33:01.380 We're going to have lower growth. We're going to have way lower growth than 20. 02:33:01.520 --> 02:33:04.160 Now you can you can go beyond that and be more specific. 02:33:04.400 --> 02:33:07.900 I already talked about the recession earlier. So I already I already made a 02:33:07.900 --> 02:33:10.540 recession prediction. I'm going to put all to be consistent. 02:33:10.880 --> 02:33:13.260 We're not not. I'm going to go with your prediction. 02:33:13.980 --> 02:33:19.260 You know, GDP growth will be lower in 2026 and 2025. Absolutely. Yes. 02:33:19.600 --> 02:33:20.960 Comparing the Q3 numbers. 02:33:21.360 --> 02:33:21.840 Yes. 02:33:22.480 --> 02:33:26.560 Okay. Bitcoin at end of year. Also from Bruce. 02:33:28.020 --> 02:33:31.280 I'm going to say that Bitcoin at the end of- How did it do this year? 02:33:31.540 --> 02:33:33.200 Did it actually end down this year? 02:33:34.400 --> 02:33:35.340 I think it's kind of flat. 02:33:35.340 --> 02:33:35.700 Year over year. 02:33:36.260 --> 02:33:36.840 Isn't it? 02:33:37.240 --> 02:33:37.980 Well, yeah. 02:33:37.980 --> 02:33:38.320 Isn't it kind of flat? 02:33:38.380 --> 02:33:42.460 It's not exactly flat. So is it up or down? Let's get a chart up. 02:33:43.200 --> 02:33:43.980 Oh, God. 02:33:45.440 --> 02:33:48.240 Getting up Bitcoin one year. 02:33:49.060 --> 02:33:50.680 It's very close to where it started. 02:33:50.920 --> 02:33:53.280 Last year. Down year over year. Down year over year. 02:33:53.280 --> 02:33:56.800 Yeah, like 5.2%. Yeah, it's very close to where it was last year. 02:33:57.000 --> 02:34:01.860 So it was like it started the year in 92 and it ended the year at 87,000. 02:34:02.140 --> 02:34:05.600 And a fraction in both cases. Yeah. I'm going to say down again. 02:34:05.960 --> 02:34:07.020 Second down year in a row. 02:34:07.980 --> 02:34:09.300 Okay, I'm going with down. 02:34:10.080 --> 02:34:12.420 Okay. Gold. 02:34:13.840 --> 02:34:14.680 Gold up. 02:34:15.640 --> 02:34:16.920 I'll agree with you on up. 02:34:19.460 --> 02:34:22.860 Gas, like, you know, car gas. 02:34:23.100 --> 02:34:23.580 Down. 02:34:23.840 --> 02:34:25.440 In the U.S. Down? 02:34:27.160 --> 02:34:33.500 I'll go with down two. I'm agreeing with you too much. This is not good. No, this is not good. 02:34:35.040 --> 02:34:36.640 This makes for terrible entertainment. 02:34:37.300 --> 02:34:43.060 Terrible entertainment, and it doubles the risk. Like, we calculate an overall score. 02:34:43.340 --> 02:34:46.320 Yes, I know. Whenever we hedge by disagreeing. 02:34:46.440 --> 02:34:50.100 Yeah, but we're, we're. You know, it means we're. 02:34:50.200 --> 02:34:53.100 If we're both wrong, we're screwed. 02:34:53.540 --> 02:34:54.020 Right. 02:34:55.420 --> 02:34:59.380 Okay. Okay, and by down, we're talking average U.S. 02:34:59.540 --> 02:35:04.320 nationwide, blah, blah, blah, whatever, because, of course, it varies location 02:35:04.320 --> 02:35:07.580 to location, and we're talking U.S., not international, et cetera. 02:35:08.320 --> 02:35:12.020 Okay, not on here, but we've always also talked about, generally, 02:35:12.260 --> 02:35:16.280 oil, and we pick Brent Cruz. 02:35:17.100 --> 02:35:18.720 Sometimes we pick the other one. 02:35:19.280 --> 02:35:21.860 Whatever you want. I think we pick West Texas Intermediate. 02:35:23.400 --> 02:35:25.180 We've done both in previous years. 02:35:25.180 --> 02:35:28.360 All right, so let's go with West Texas. Okay. 02:35:28.640 --> 02:35:28.800 Yes. 02:35:31.100 --> 02:35:33.000 I'm going to say up. I'm going to say up. 02:35:33.360 --> 02:35:34.260 I'm going to say down. 02:35:34.820 --> 02:35:38.420 Okay. You know, you don't have to follow my lead and go up and down. 02:35:38.540 --> 02:35:39.560 You could do ranges, too. 02:35:40.320 --> 02:35:44.660 No, no, no. Let's be consistent, because otherwise, then we're doing two different 02:35:44.660 --> 02:35:45.980 predictions on every single one. 02:35:46.060 --> 02:35:48.400 No, this is easier to try. 02:35:49.020 --> 02:35:54.380 Okay, Dow, up or down? I'm going to say down, because we're predicting a recession and all that. 02:35:55.180 --> 02:35:56.040 I'm going to go with down. 02:35:56.540 --> 02:35:58.200 And S&P also down? 02:35:58.760 --> 02:35:59.260 Yes. 02:35:59.960 --> 02:36:04.440 Okay. And we might as well complete the trifecta NASDAQ also down? 02:36:04.860 --> 02:36:05.360 Yes. 02:36:05.720 --> 02:36:09.000 I'm also going down. Oh, God, we're agreeing on all of these. 02:36:09.160 --> 02:36:11.900 I'll go against you. I'll go NASDAQ up. 02:36:12.640 --> 02:36:15.080 NASDAQ up, everything else down. Okay. 02:36:15.180 --> 02:36:15.360 Right. 02:36:16.080 --> 02:36:19.620 And then unemployment up or down? I'm going up. 02:36:20.020 --> 02:36:21.960 No, unemployment's going up. Okay. 02:36:24.260 --> 02:36:28.160 Okay that was rad how about trade deficit from ed. 02:36:28.160 --> 02:36:32.780 Okay let's see where the trade deficit trend line has been by the way trade 02:36:32.780 --> 02:36:35.460 deficit year-to-date september was up by the way. 02:36:36.580 --> 02:36:38.440 Aren't tariffs gonna fix all this. 02:36:38.440 --> 02:36:40.020 Uh-huh yeah that's. 02:36:40.020 --> 02:36:43.500 What tariffs are for right export everything import nothing. 02:36:43.500 --> 02:36:54.960 Uh okay yeah uh uh oh let me check so uh U.S. trade deficit monthly. 02:36:55.260 --> 02:36:58.680 Here's the Y charts. Three year. 02:37:00.480 --> 02:37:00.960 Well, 02:37:03.040 --> 02:37:08.520 I mean, trade deficit has been relatively... It was up this year, 02:37:08.720 --> 02:37:11.540 year to date, in large part because of that surge of imports. 02:37:11.760 --> 02:37:14.920 Yeah, year over year because of that huge surge of imports that we had. 02:37:15.420 --> 02:37:17.960 At the beginning of the year when people were stocking up. 02:37:17.960 --> 02:37:21.760 Yeah. I mean, it was like, it hit like a record. 02:37:21.940 --> 02:37:27.840 I mean, it's a crazy number, Sam. It hit stocking up for the tariffs. 02:37:28.340 --> 02:37:34.180 Like the trade deficit now is at 53 billion and it's been about averaging around 60. 02:37:34.180 --> 02:37:37.220 But there is still deficit. We didn't get to a surplus. 02:37:37.700 --> 02:37:45.440 No, we didn't get to surplus. But in March, it hit $137 billion. 02:37:46.320 --> 02:37:50.960 That's how big that surge of imports was heading into the tariffs. 02:37:52.320 --> 02:37:55.900 $137. That was like March was $137 billion. 02:37:56.600 --> 02:38:02.420 February, $120 billion. And January, $128 billion. So think about this. 02:38:02.420 --> 02:38:04.440 compared to where what was the. 02:38:04.440 --> 02:38:05.340 Baseline like last. 02:38:05.340 --> 02:38:14.460 Year 60 we basically we imported yeah yeah yeah we imported an extra 180 billion 02:38:14.460 --> 02:38:19.780 dollars worth of merchandise over a three month period okay, 02:38:21.150 --> 02:38:22.610 because of the tariffs. 02:38:22.910 --> 02:38:27.290 But it was supposed to go down, Yvonne, because of tariffs. We were supposed to get to surplus. 02:38:27.870 --> 02:38:33.650 Yeah. Now it's down now, of course, because fuck, we imported the shit out of everything. 02:38:34.630 --> 02:38:39.670 Okay, so now that initial bump is out of the way, in 2026, do we go up or down? 02:38:40.050 --> 02:38:42.270 Tread deficit is going to go up again. 02:38:42.810 --> 02:38:44.110 Up again? Yeah. 02:38:44.490 --> 02:38:47.630 He's going to go... Well, no, here's the thing. It's actually going to be down 02:38:47.630 --> 02:38:49.850 on 2025 because of that huge surge of interest. 02:38:50.990 --> 02:38:54.250 And are we talking whole year number, or are we talking quarter over quarter, 02:38:54.250 --> 02:38:54.610 or year over year? Well, at this point. 02:38:54.810 --> 02:39:00.450 Usually what we can get at this point is usually only trade data through September. 02:39:01.090 --> 02:39:05.010 Kind of like the same thing as GDP. Are we going to actually compare Q3 to Q3 02:39:05.010 --> 02:39:06.830 then, as opposed to a full year number? 02:39:06.850 --> 02:39:09.630 Or, I mean, the trailing four quarters. 02:39:10.230 --> 02:39:10.270 Yeah. 02:39:10.950 --> 02:39:13.470 So I'm going to say trailing four quarters. It's going to be down. 02:39:13.610 --> 02:39:17.430 It's going to be down, but simply because we had that ridiculous surge of imports. 02:39:18.010 --> 02:39:23.650 Okay. I'll agree. Next up, two related items. 02:39:24.770 --> 02:39:27.790 Federal budget deficit. It's going to go up again. 02:39:28.050 --> 02:39:31.690 It's up. I mean, we cut taxes like lunatics. Of course, it's going up. 02:39:32.130 --> 02:39:37.590 Yes. And the related question, will... 02:39:37.590 --> 02:39:41.090 You know how bad we've cut taxes, Sam? Did you see that in the last couple of 02:39:41.090 --> 02:39:43.870 weeks that Mitt Romney actually agreed that we needed to raise taxes? 02:39:43.870 --> 02:39:44.910 Yes, I saw that. 02:39:45.130 --> 02:39:48.010 Yes, I did. I mean, this is the timeline that we are in right now, 02:39:48.030 --> 02:39:52.170 where Mitt Romney actually agrees that we need to raise taxes. 02:39:52.690 --> 02:39:54.390 Holy shit, what a time to be alive. 02:39:55.130 --> 02:39:55.530 Okay. 02:39:56.740 --> 02:40:06.580 Next up, related question, will the total federal debt go over $40 trillion? 02:40:06.940 --> 02:40:11.260 I just looked it up on Fred. The most recent number they had is Q2. 02:40:11.680 --> 02:40:15.060 What's the number? But 36. 36 trillion. 02:40:15.080 --> 02:40:19.180 Oh, fuck, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Answers yes. It's going over $40 trillion. Answers yes. 02:40:19.500 --> 02:40:25.140 Okay. I will agree. Yes. Okay. And that's it for econ. 02:40:25.580 --> 02:40:26.160 Okay. 02:40:26.160 --> 02:40:31.400 Okay, so that means it is time for another break. And then it really will be 02:40:31.400 --> 02:40:35.660 our last one, Hodgepodge, which is a bunch of random little stuff. 02:40:35.860 --> 02:40:40.020 And hopefully we'll go pretty quick. We will be back because we are now rapidly 02:40:40.020 --> 02:40:41.480 approaching the three-hour mark. 02:40:42.020 --> 02:40:43.880 Yo, so here we go. 02:40:44.300 --> 02:40:46.140 So much for me hurrying this thing up. 02:40:46.440 --> 02:40:49.640 Well, I don't think we'll make it to four. 02:40:51.600 --> 02:40:52.120 Good. 02:40:52.400 --> 02:40:54.680 Good. So here we go. 02:42:56.040 --> 02:43:01.940 Okay, we are back and we are in hodgepodge and the first subsection of hodgepodge is medical. 02:43:02.360 --> 02:43:07.420 And the first question is from my son, Alex, who asks, will Yvonne die? 02:43:08.340 --> 02:43:09.540 I'm going with a no. 02:43:10.080 --> 02:43:13.760 You know, as tempted as I am, I have to go with no. 02:43:14.520 --> 02:43:18.520 Because if I went with yes, then in order to get this right, 02:43:18.700 --> 02:43:21.640 if in the last week of December you were still alive, I'd have to come down 02:43:21.640 --> 02:43:22.960 to Florida and murder you. 02:43:23.560 --> 02:43:25.660 And that would be a bad set of incentives. 02:43:25.660 --> 02:43:27.740 He's got a co-host with you every fucking week. 02:43:28.400 --> 02:43:34.460 Exactly. So, like, this is not a winning scenario for me. I'd also end up in 02:43:34.460 --> 02:43:35.800 jail, and that would be bad. 02:43:36.000 --> 02:43:37.280 That would be bad. 02:43:37.440 --> 02:43:42.340 That would be bad. And just to get one additional question right on the prediction show. 02:43:42.600 --> 02:43:43.680 It seems like a lot. 02:43:44.360 --> 02:43:49.460 Yeah. So I'm going to have to go with yes, Yvonne will still be alive at the end of the year. 02:43:49.620 --> 02:43:54.940 Okay. Well, by the way, one prediction to add. Fidel Castro will still be dead. 02:43:55.900 --> 02:44:00.820 Now, I put our celebrity deaths at the end, but okay, Fidel Castro will still be dead. 02:44:01.380 --> 02:44:05.980 You didn't qualify as a celebrity death, so I didn't move you to the end. 02:44:07.160 --> 02:44:09.200 I'm fucking deeply offended. 02:44:11.480 --> 02:44:17.620 Okay, next up from John. How many MRIs will Trump have in 2026? 02:44:18.220 --> 02:44:19.400 I'm going with three. 02:44:20.220 --> 02:44:21.540 I will go with four. 02:44:22.100 --> 02:44:23.740 Okay, there you go. 02:44:25.080 --> 02:44:33.860 Okay, next up, Ed, will an mRNA-based care be found effective for treating any form of cancer? 02:44:34.560 --> 02:44:37.480 Now, there have been some that have already been pretty promising. 02:44:37.480 --> 02:44:38.360 That's what I was thinking. 02:44:38.520 --> 02:44:39.560 Ed. Don't we have? 02:44:40.460 --> 02:44:45.080 I mean, I guess the question is where in the trial process they end up being? 02:44:45.240 --> 02:44:50.640 Because I know there are early trials that are already showing good results, right? Or am I wrong? 02:44:50.740 --> 02:44:52.800 Yeah, that's what I thought. No, no, that's what I remember. 02:44:55.200 --> 02:45:00.800 So, I guess, is the question really, like, are they out of trials and available for general use? 02:45:00.940 --> 02:45:10.920 Yeah, I mean, I guess, so there is no approved yet mRNA-based cancer therapy, okay? 02:45:11.200 --> 02:45:13.760 But there's some that are showing promising results in trials. 02:45:13.940 --> 02:45:16.840 Right? Yes, correct, but it's in clinical trials, yes, and that are shown promise. 02:45:17.940 --> 02:45:22.560 Some have reached late stage, yeah, but none are approved. So the question is 02:45:22.560 --> 02:45:24.400 whether we get one approved in 2026. 02:45:24.400 --> 02:45:27.140 Yeah, because I mean, found effective, I would say late stage, 02:45:27.140 --> 02:45:30.000 you're already almost there. But I guess approved. 02:45:30.360 --> 02:45:34.160 I'll go with approved. I don't know. Based on this fucking administration, 02:45:34.160 --> 02:45:37.500 I'm going to say no. Because these guys are sociopaths. 02:45:37.780 --> 02:45:40.180 Well, could they be approved elsewhere in the world? 02:45:41.000 --> 02:45:42.320 Yeah, I'm going to say yes. 02:45:42.960 --> 02:45:50.440 Okay. So yes, elsewhere, no U.S. Because this administration fundamentally thinks 02:45:50.440 --> 02:45:52.580 like mRNA is poisoning you or something. 02:45:52.900 --> 02:45:53.480 Correct. Yes. 02:45:53.920 --> 02:45:55.500 Because they're out of their minds. 02:45:57.410 --> 02:46:01.250 I will agree. Yes, international, no U.S. 02:46:01.690 --> 02:46:08.690 for actual approved usage of mRNA cancer treatments. 02:46:09.170 --> 02:46:13.210 Okay, next up from Ed, will RFK Jr. be thrown out of office? No. 02:46:13.910 --> 02:46:19.090 No. I mean, if they haven't thrown any of them out yet, why are we going to throw them out in 2026? 02:46:19.610 --> 02:46:23.650 I mean, in a normally functioning administration. 02:46:24.490 --> 02:46:27.930 Hackseth, Rubio— Maybe if my prediction comes true and we have President Vance 02:46:27.930 --> 02:46:30.190 by the end, maybe Vance thinks differently about RFK. 02:46:30.290 --> 02:46:33.510 But even then, I don't think so. I think he's going to try to. 02:46:33.550 --> 02:46:39.170 No, no, no. I think that a guy like Vance, who is, remember, 02:46:39.570 --> 02:46:41.910 he just goes with the flow, right? 02:46:42.470 --> 02:46:42.850 Mm-hmm. 02:46:44.750 --> 02:46:51.310 I'm sure that he will get rid of almost all of these people because he will 02:46:51.310 --> 02:46:52.830 want people that sucks up to him. 02:46:52.990 --> 02:46:55.170 Eventually, not like on day one or anything. 02:46:55.310 --> 02:47:00.150 Yeah, not on the... Because you want people that suck up to him, not Trump. 02:47:01.170 --> 02:47:05.110 I can see that. But also, he's going to be very careful about trying to keep 02:47:05.110 --> 02:47:08.190 the Trump base and blah, blah, blah, and, you know, whatever. 02:47:08.770 --> 02:47:12.450 But right now, he's already losing them with these guys anyway. So what the hell? 02:47:12.690 --> 02:47:14.850 Anyway, RFK will still be there at the end of the year. 02:47:14.930 --> 02:47:15.810 RFK will still be there. 02:47:17.270 --> 02:47:21.950 Next up. Oh, God. I'm going to be tempted for ups and downs on these as well, 02:47:22.130 --> 02:47:24.770 rather than numbers. Sorry, Ed, because I haven't done research. 02:47:25.190 --> 02:47:32.710 How many deaths? And I guess these are worldwide. worldwide, maybe U.S. I don't know. 02:47:34.030 --> 02:47:38.830 I'm going to interpret these as U.S. for now. Measles, whooping cough, 02:47:39.030 --> 02:47:40.790 and tetanus, all three up. 02:47:41.730 --> 02:47:42.370 We're all up. 02:47:42.610 --> 02:47:48.170 We're going up. We've got the world's worst public health administration that we've ever seen. 02:47:48.430 --> 02:47:51.570 All the numbers are going to point up. Oh, that's the wrong way. 02:47:51.930 --> 02:47:57.410 Everything about prevention is out the window. Yeah, up, up. 02:47:57.570 --> 02:47:58.930 Make America sick again. 02:47:59.250 --> 02:48:02.570 Right. Okay, that's it for medical. 02:48:02.910 --> 02:48:08.570 The next category was originally sports, but Alex made it sports slash abblesmay. 02:48:09.450 --> 02:48:15.070 First question, will Abelfnaf be finished from Alex? 02:48:15.210 --> 02:48:19.070 This is that game that I was making last year. 02:48:20.620 --> 02:48:25.160 I will say yes, goddammit. I will finish it in 2026. 02:48:25.500 --> 02:48:26.300 I'm going to say no. 02:48:26.600 --> 02:48:31.140 I obviously did not finish it in 2025. I suck. 02:48:32.420 --> 02:48:33.780 I don't want to know. 02:48:34.640 --> 02:48:40.460 Okay. His next question, will Abolfnaf Web Game Edition, because right now it's 02:48:40.460 --> 02:48:44.660 a Mac game, and I was trying to make it a web game, will it be canceled? 02:48:45.200 --> 02:48:52.660 No, it will not be canceled. And furthermore, it will be out by the end of 2026. 02:48:52.680 --> 02:48:53.900 I'm pointing at Alex. 02:48:54.100 --> 02:48:57.560 Of course, I predicted it would be out by the end of 2025, and I was wrong. 02:48:57.720 --> 02:48:59.520 We'll see that next week. 02:49:00.040 --> 02:49:01.600 What do you think, Yvonne Abolf? 02:49:01.720 --> 02:49:02.880 I agree with your prediction. 02:49:03.640 --> 02:49:09.260 And by the way, to avoid jinxing myself, I have not added predictions here for 02:49:09.260 --> 02:49:15.520 Robin letter or juke potter potter or bookshelf or my to-do list manager thing 02:49:15.520 --> 02:49:22.800 or any of the projects i'm actively working on because that would you know i it would be that. 02:49:22.800 --> 02:49:24.140 Could be that would be problematic. 02:49:24.140 --> 02:49:29.620 I i mean you know i i am tempted to just make positive predictions for everything 02:49:29.620 --> 02:49:36.520 but no i'm going to not do that to avoid like bad luck for me predicting things 02:49:36.520 --> 02:49:38.640 like obviously happened with Abolfnaf. 02:49:39.140 --> 02:49:42.340 Okay, next question from Alex. 02:49:43.280 --> 02:49:45.060 Will Abelsmay become an athlete? 02:49:46.040 --> 02:49:47.040 Ha ha ha ha! 02:49:49.090 --> 02:49:50.610 I'm going to go with a no. 02:49:51.390 --> 02:49:57.890 I'm going to say I will be signed by at least one professional sports team in 2026. 02:49:58.250 --> 02:49:58.570 Whoa! 02:50:00.370 --> 02:50:04.710 You know, I don't know, probably hockey, ice hockey, you know? 02:50:04.990 --> 02:50:08.270 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It sounds great. Right. Seattle Kraken, 02:50:08.510 --> 02:50:09.970 right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. 02:50:10.270 --> 02:50:11.150 Yeah, that's it. 02:50:11.470 --> 02:50:14.070 That's my new career. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 02:50:14.070 --> 02:50:15.210 It sounds great. 02:50:15.510 --> 02:50:17.730 You don't need those teeth anyway. What the hell? 02:50:18.270 --> 02:50:23.490 Don't need teeth. You know, I'm sure the fact that my shoulder and hip hurt 02:50:23.490 --> 02:50:25.890 all the time isn't going to affect this in any way. 02:50:26.330 --> 02:50:30.250 The fact that, you know, my maximum 02:50:30.250 --> 02:50:34.450 run without winding myself is like 10 seconds. That doesn't matter. 02:50:35.130 --> 02:50:36.330 You're good. You're fine. 02:50:37.230 --> 02:50:39.270 I'm fine. You're fine. 02:50:39.470 --> 02:50:39.970 You're fine. 02:50:40.830 --> 02:50:41.430 So, yes. 02:50:41.710 --> 02:50:42.030 You're fine. 02:50:42.030 --> 02:50:46.090 Did I just make the—I will become an athlete, and furthermore, 02:50:46.110 --> 02:50:48.150 I will be signed by a professional sports team. 02:50:48.290 --> 02:50:50.130 Yes, that's correct. Yes, that's your—. 02:50:50.870 --> 02:50:53.690 I'm doing wonders for my average for next year. 02:50:53.930 --> 02:50:54.230 Yeah. 02:50:54.350 --> 02:50:54.550 Okay. 02:50:54.610 --> 02:50:56.070 Yeah, this will really help out. 02:50:56.590 --> 02:51:02.770 Next question from John. How many curmudgeons corner mugs will be sold in 2026? 02:51:03.150 --> 02:51:09.610 Now, I will exclude myself. So anything that I purchase for myself or for giving 02:51:09.610 --> 02:51:12.870 mugs to guests on the show and stuff like that, or to people who, 02:51:12.890 --> 02:51:16.890 you know, join the Patreon at an appropriate level, I'm not going to count those. 02:51:17.070 --> 02:51:22.930 I'm going to say two, two mug purchases in 2026. I'll go with one. With one? 02:51:23.950 --> 02:51:27.350 You know, are you making a purchase right now? Because you need to wait till midnight. 02:51:27.730 --> 02:51:30.910 No, no, no. I'm not making a purchase right now. But at least it's one that 02:51:30.910 --> 02:51:36.730 I can, if it's not coming true, I can go and just quickly solve it. 02:51:36.730 --> 02:51:36.990 By a bug. 02:51:37.250 --> 02:51:37.610 Yeah. 02:51:37.750 --> 02:51:38.650 There you go. Okay. 02:51:40.870 --> 02:51:46.930 Okay. Ed wants to know, will the Spurs be the champions? 02:51:47.270 --> 02:51:52.010 And to show my athleticism from the previous question, I don't even know what sport this is. 02:51:52.350 --> 02:51:55.070 Okay, this is NBA, San Antonio Spurs. 02:51:55.630 --> 02:51:58.990 Okay. And Ed says, by the way, go Spurs, go. 02:51:58.990 --> 02:52:03.970 Okay, so he's a big Spurs fan. So they've got this, they've got this guy, 02:52:04.730 --> 02:52:11.090 Wembenyama, who's from France, that has the, he is so tall, Sam, 02:52:11.310 --> 02:52:14.750 and his arms are so long. It's ridiculous. 02:52:16.370 --> 02:52:21.330 It's ridiculous how this guy can move so swiftly. I'm going to say no. 02:52:22.470 --> 02:52:26.970 Because I think my prediction will be that the NBA champs, again, 02:52:27.130 --> 02:52:29.990 will be the same team as last year. Oklahoma City. 02:52:30.950 --> 02:52:35.570 Okay. John asks, will there be an MLB lockout? 02:52:36.310 --> 02:52:40.050 And I'm not going to make any predictions on the Spurs because I have no idea. 02:52:41.070 --> 02:52:45.110 I mean, you can just go throw a dart out at it. Say yes or no. 02:52:45.730 --> 02:52:47.810 Okay. Bruce asks for a Super Bowl winner. 02:52:48.550 --> 02:52:52.970 Oh, fuck. Super Bowl, well, it's going to happen in the Phoenix. Oh, man. 02:52:54.010 --> 02:52:57.270 Shit. Super Bowl winner. Damn. 02:52:57.850 --> 02:53:06.050 I, I, I, I'm going to, let me look again and, I, I, let me look at my options here. 02:53:06.990 --> 02:53:12.290 I don't like my options. Um, uh, let's see. 02:53:12.610 --> 02:53:16.790 Uh, uh, hold on. 02:53:23.090 --> 02:53:29.150 who would I pick? I'm going to pick the Los Angeles Rams. 02:53:29.950 --> 02:53:35.750 Okay. I'm going to do nothing on this one. Do you want to do baseball World Series? 02:53:36.010 --> 02:53:37.630 I'm going to pick the Dodgers again. 02:53:38.870 --> 02:53:45.030 I'm going to avoid this, too. I have no idea. Any other sports you want to make 02:53:45.030 --> 02:53:46.310 a championship prediction for? 02:53:46.330 --> 02:53:48.350 No, no. That's already enough championship predictions. 02:53:48.530 --> 02:53:53.050 Do we have an Olympics this year? Anything going on? Do we have a Winter Olympics? 02:53:53.430 --> 02:54:00.270 Do we? When is the Olympics? No, but we have a World Cup. 02:54:00.610 --> 02:54:01.550 World Cup, yeah. 02:54:03.050 --> 02:54:05.870 Oh, God. No, no. I'm not going to make any more sports predictions. 02:54:06.630 --> 02:54:08.750 I'm done. That's enough sports predictions. 02:54:08.870 --> 02:54:12.490 One more curmudgeons corner prediction since we had the mugs one. 02:54:13.690 --> 02:54:18.090 Traffic, like weekly downloads for curmudgeons corner. 02:54:18.330 --> 02:54:25.050 It is typically for years now hovered around 50 a week, sometimes a little higher, 02:54:25.270 --> 02:54:26.330 sometimes a little lower. 02:54:27.230 --> 02:54:35.190 My prediction is it's still going to be in that range most of the year between 40 and 60. 02:54:35.970 --> 02:54:42.630 Uh, I'm going to predict it's going to stay in that range. 02:54:42.910 --> 02:54:45.970 Now, you know what? No, I'm going to predict it's going to break out over 60. 02:54:46.410 --> 02:54:50.570 Break out over 60. Just once or break out over 60 and stay up over 60? 02:54:50.570 --> 02:54:54.650 No, no, no. Like that. Because we do occasionally go above 60. 02:54:55.010 --> 02:54:55.890 So we have. 02:54:55.890 --> 02:54:58.210 No, no, no. The average will break out over 60. 02:54:58.470 --> 02:54:59.710 And stay over 60. 02:54:59.870 --> 02:55:01.230 Yes. Yes. 02:55:01.390 --> 02:55:08.770 Okay. Okay. Very good. I'm going to say the average will stay between 40 and 60 most of the year. 02:55:08.890 --> 02:55:11.570 It might peak above it, but it won't stay above it. There you go. 02:55:11.630 --> 02:55:15.910 So what I'm saying is that, because you talked about that 40 to 60 range, 02:55:16.090 --> 02:55:20.150 what I'm saying is that the average, when you look at it, will break over that range. 02:55:20.470 --> 02:55:22.330 Right, and stay over. Correct. 02:55:22.330 --> 02:55:23.870 I'm saying it might go over temporarily. 02:55:24.110 --> 02:55:24.670 But won't stay over. 02:55:24.670 --> 02:55:26.690 What I'm saying is the average of the year, yes. 02:55:27.490 --> 02:55:38.830 Okay. Yeah. Just looking at the last year, our smallest weekly number that I 02:55:38.830 --> 02:55:42.170 don't think was a data artifact was only 20 downloads. 02:55:42.510 --> 02:55:47.710 And our highest that I don't think was just bogus data was 130. 02:55:47.710 --> 02:55:58.770 The average number all-time high was around 70, and low for the year was around 35. 02:56:00.090 --> 02:56:06.430 But, yeah. And our current average is inflated by some bogus numbers I haven't 02:56:06.430 --> 02:56:07.690 eliminated from the charts yet. 02:56:07.910 --> 02:56:14.090 So, we had one day that said we had 102 downloads, which was not real. 02:56:14.090 --> 02:56:18.050 and once I take it out, it'll reduce our average. 02:56:18.430 --> 02:56:20.510 Okay. Back to, 02:56:21.160 --> 02:56:21.840 That was you? 02:56:22.260 --> 02:56:24.000 No, no, no. It helps me. 02:56:24.380 --> 02:56:30.200 Oh, right. It helps you. Okay, next up, weather and climate. 02:56:31.020 --> 02:56:34.540 How many Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? 02:56:35.300 --> 02:56:39.300 Man, how many do we have this year? I'm going to go, well, oh. 02:56:40.240 --> 02:56:44.560 And by the way, this is hurricane specifically not named storms. 02:56:48.880 --> 02:56:53.060 See, how many do we have this year? we had two. 02:56:55.100 --> 02:56:55.900 Only two. 02:56:56.180 --> 02:57:00.180 No, we had total hurricanes not named storms. 02:57:00.420 --> 02:57:01.460 Gabrielle and Humberto. 02:57:07.280 --> 02:57:09.200 I'm looking at that HC site. 02:57:12.040 --> 02:57:16.840 We had Tropical Storm Andrea, Tropical Storm Barry, Tropical Storm Dexter, 02:57:17.300 --> 02:57:23.140 Tropical Storm Ferdinand, Hurricane Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Jerry, 02:57:23.620 --> 02:57:27.500 Subtropical Storm Karen, and Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Only two hurricanes. 02:57:27.500 --> 02:57:33.860 No, it says here. No. I'm at the Wikipedia page. Hurricanes, we had five. 02:57:34.420 --> 02:57:39.520 Wait. I'm looking at the NHC. I'm not sure. Wikipedia, too. 02:57:40.700 --> 02:57:41.880 Hurricanes were five. 02:57:42.560 --> 02:57:43.500 Okay. Which ones? 02:57:44.300 --> 02:57:45.220 Let me see. 02:57:45.940 --> 02:57:46.120 Okay. 02:57:46.860 --> 02:57:51.260 Aaron. Okay. Gabriel. Umberto. 02:57:51.600 --> 02:57:55.740 Wait, are you looking at the 2025 season? You're looking at 2024. 02:57:56.340 --> 02:58:00.340 No, I'm looking at 2025. 2025 Hurricane Atlantic. 02:58:00.340 --> 02:58:04.200 What the hell am I looking at then? I'm looking at 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. 02:58:05.020 --> 02:58:10.800 I'm looking at 2025. Let me look at Wikipedia too. So, match. 02:58:11.360 --> 02:58:12.820 You know, this shouldn't be hard. 02:58:13.260 --> 02:58:20.660 No, it should. I trust Wikipedia. So, it got Five major, five hurricanes, four major. 02:58:22.380 --> 02:58:26.280 Barry, Chantel, Dexter, Aaron. 02:58:26.900 --> 02:58:28.500 That's a hurricane. That's one. 02:58:29.200 --> 02:58:36.560 Oh, wait. Okay. I don't, like, I'm missing Aaron from this list entirely. 02:58:37.060 --> 02:58:41.480 I don't know. Okay, I will go with yours. I will go with yours because it's, 02:58:41.560 --> 02:58:43.380 like, I'm clearly missing a couple. 02:58:43.560 --> 02:58:47.800 Like, I'm looking at the— Five was a very low number, by the way. 02:58:48.340 --> 02:58:52.740 All right. Well, that's because probably because of the cutbacks by these assholes. 02:58:53.140 --> 02:58:55.860 But there you go. 02:58:56.400 --> 02:59:00.440 But I'm going to say, look, the average is seven. 02:59:01.640 --> 02:59:05.380 We're going to go over five. I mean, that was a that was a very low number. 02:59:06.580 --> 02:59:10.260 OK, so your prediction is more than five for next year. 02:59:10.560 --> 02:59:10.940 Yeah. 02:59:11.580 --> 02:59:15.860 OK, I I will give a range here. 02:59:16.880 --> 02:59:21.800 that four to seven. I'll go with four to seven. 02:59:22.680 --> 02:59:28.280 Okay, now how many of them will make landfall in the U.S.? 02:59:28.280 --> 02:59:30.320 Oh. Two. 02:59:31.020 --> 02:59:32.960 How many was it this year? Any of those? 02:59:33.260 --> 02:59:35.980 I don't know if any of them made landfall in the U.S. 02:59:36.500 --> 02:59:41.120 Okay. I'm gonna say zero to two. 02:59:42.340 --> 02:59:47.480 Okay, next up. We ask this every year. Will 2020 2026 be the hottest year ever? 02:59:48.040 --> 02:59:48.520 Yes. 02:59:49.340 --> 02:59:52.880 I'll say yes as well. You're more likely to be right with a yes than a no. 02:59:53.420 --> 02:59:57.760 Like, we do have some years that it comes in number two or number three instead 02:59:57.760 --> 03:00:01.300 of number one. But it's number one a lot. 03:00:02.100 --> 03:00:06.000 Okay. My next one is one specific to Yvonne. 03:00:06.970 --> 03:00:12.050 And it was prompted by your complaints at the beginning of the show about the 03:00:12.050 --> 03:00:13.130 coldness of the weather. 03:00:14.450 --> 03:00:21.670 Will Ivan, with his own eyes, in person, see snow in 2026? 03:00:22.370 --> 03:00:26.830 It doesn't have to be snow at your home. You could have traveled somewhere and seen it somewhere. 03:00:26.830 --> 03:00:28.770 I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's happened. 03:00:28.830 --> 03:00:33.870 Obviously. Oh, and I will add, it can't count seeing the top of a mountain from 03:00:33.870 --> 03:00:38.030 a distance. has to be like, you physically, the snow is where you are. 03:00:38.030 --> 03:00:42.010 So it's not like if I'm on an airplane and we fly past a snow-capped peak. 03:00:42.530 --> 03:00:47.830 No, that doesn't count. If you fly over Greenland on the way to Europe, that doesn't count. 03:00:48.050 --> 03:00:51.490 No, you have to be physically present with the snow. 03:00:54.350 --> 03:00:57.490 Shit. You know what? I'm going to go with a no. 03:00:58.130 --> 03:01:03.730 Okay. I will say yes, even if I have to mail you a snowball. 03:01:04.210 --> 03:01:09.590 No, I'm not going to nail you a snowball. You can. I mean, you pack it in dry ice. 03:01:09.950 --> 03:01:13.510 Yeah, yeah. It's possible. I'm not going to do it, though. I promise I will 03:01:13.510 --> 03:01:17.110 not do it. But I will say yes, you will see snow. 03:01:17.370 --> 03:01:18.830 But it will be quince- You may be right. 03:01:19.310 --> 03:01:23.890 You will end up, it won't be at your house. I'm going to make myself- Listen. 03:01:23.890 --> 03:01:27.770 If it's snowing in Boca Raton, it's going to be really a- I mean, 03:01:27.950 --> 03:01:30.710 I know this year's probably going to be very fucked up. But shit, 03:01:30.770 --> 03:01:34.390 if it's snowing in Boca, then it's really, really beyond fucked up. 03:01:36.210 --> 03:01:39.750 No, it's, you're going to travel somewhere and incidentally you're going to 03:01:39.750 --> 03:01:41.070 happen to be there during a cold snap. 03:01:41.070 --> 03:01:43.690 Yeah, I mean that's the way that I normally see snow, so yeah. 03:01:44.170 --> 03:01:46.610 Okay. When is the last time you saw snow? 03:01:47.740 --> 03:01:50.920 How many years ago was the last time you saw snow? 03:01:51.160 --> 03:01:57.640 I think that the last time I saw snow, I think it must have been at a meeting 03:01:57.640 --> 03:02:00.580 in Rochester, New York, where I went for work. 03:02:01.000 --> 03:02:03.600 So like five years, six years ago? 03:02:03.800 --> 03:02:07.700 Yeah, it must have been in 2019. Yeah. 03:02:08.340 --> 03:02:08.640 Okay. 03:02:08.720 --> 03:02:09.480 But I went, yeah. 03:02:11.120 --> 03:02:18.580 Okay pop culture John wants to know will the Rolling Stones release a new album 03:02:18.580 --> 03:02:22.840 and of course my immediate reaction is they're still alive heck. 03:02:22.840 --> 03:02:26.320 I just heard they canceled a tour I think because one of them didn't feel well 03:02:26.320 --> 03:02:28.040 so I'm gonna say no they're not gonna release. 03:02:28.900 --> 03:02:33.900 I'm gonna say no they canceled and they apparently said they're probably never 03:02:33.900 --> 03:02:37.020 gonna tour again they've in you know. 03:02:38.120 --> 03:02:39.560 They're really old now. 03:02:40.020 --> 03:02:43.360 Well, a lot of these bands do the things where they switch out members, 03:02:43.400 --> 03:02:46.440 and they keep going even after none of the original members exist. 03:02:47.000 --> 03:02:50.320 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but no, well, it's not none. Usually, 03:02:50.500 --> 03:02:54.140 at least, the bands stay together because, like, one or two of the key original 03:02:54.140 --> 03:02:56.400 members stay, even though everybody else changes. 03:02:56.400 --> 03:02:56.860 Usually, not always, yeah. 03:02:57.280 --> 03:03:01.480 Okay, but, you know, yeah, yeah, I mean, they're old. 03:03:02.200 --> 03:03:03.340 Yeah, I'm going to say no. 03:03:03.680 --> 03:03:07.600 Hey, Mick Jagger is 82. fuck Jesus 03:03:07.600 --> 03:03:18.860 Christ McJaggar's 82 Keith Richards is 82 as well and Ronnie Wood is 78 the 03:03:18.860 --> 03:03:24.260 youngster I mean yeah these guys are not touring again come on gotta be done. 03:03:24.260 --> 03:03:35.900 Next question from Bruce best picture Oscar winner now I've looked up like contenders. 03:03:36.380 --> 03:03:41.540 And apparently this is from Variety and Rotten Tomatoes with an AI assist from 03:03:41.540 --> 03:03:44.200 something. I don't know, whatever, AI crap. 03:03:45.280 --> 03:03:50.860 It lists the contenders as one battle after another, sinners, 03:03:51.660 --> 03:03:55.900 hamnet, wicked for good, and sentimental value. 03:03:57.320 --> 03:04:02.820 Now, I've only seen one of the five and I've only even heard of a couple of the others. 03:04:03.990 --> 03:04:08.470 So I have seen Wicked for Good. I haven't reviewed it on this show yet, 03:04:08.470 --> 03:04:14.430 but I will say that it was fine, but not as good as the first movie, 03:04:14.750 --> 03:04:17.810 which a lot of people expected because the second half of the musical wasn't 03:04:17.810 --> 03:04:18.890 as good as the first half either. 03:04:19.890 --> 03:04:23.530 but I don't I think if it was going to get an Oscar it should have been for 03:04:23.530 --> 03:04:27.050 the first one so it's going to be one of these others that I've never heard of, 03:04:28.230 --> 03:04:33.130 of these others the only one I've well, the ones I've heard of, 03:04:33.590 --> 03:04:36.730 a little bit of buzz about but not enough to even tell you what they're about 03:04:36.730 --> 03:04:40.870 are One Battle After Another and Sinners I heard more buzz about One Battle 03:04:40.870 --> 03:04:44.590 After Another so I'm going to pick that one just because I've heard about it more Okay. 03:04:44.710 --> 03:04:46.450 So I've not watched any of them, 03:04:47.680 --> 03:04:52.820 I really have very little idea what any of them are about. The only one that 03:04:52.820 --> 03:04:54.720 I've heard of some talk about is Sinners. 03:04:55.060 --> 03:04:55.580 Okay. 03:04:55.780 --> 03:05:00.760 So simply on the basis of the fact that I had heard of the name of the movie, 03:05:01.540 --> 03:05:04.960 and it's not Wicked for Good, which I know is a much bigger movie, 03:05:05.520 --> 03:05:07.320 which I will go with Sinners. 03:05:08.020 --> 03:05:11.340 Someone pointed out recently, I was watching probably a TikTok recently, 03:05:11.540 --> 03:05:17.380 of somebody analyzing how up through about the 1970s, 03:05:17.680 --> 03:05:24.400 The list of Oscar nominees and Oscar winners often aligned very closely to the 03:05:24.400 --> 03:05:25.880 biggest box office winners. 03:05:26.180 --> 03:05:31.980 But starting in the 1980s, that deteriorated. That's right. And so now there's 03:05:31.980 --> 03:05:33.320 almost no correlation at all. 03:05:33.460 --> 03:05:41.460 You almost never see an Oscar winner also be a big box office winner or vice versa. It's very rare. 03:05:42.540 --> 03:05:46.200 Anyway, okay, that's our predictions for that. Obviously not knowing. 03:05:46.200 --> 03:05:49.400 And here is my Epstein files follow up. 03:05:49.720 --> 03:05:54.340 You know, we talked about Trump Epstein files. We talked about other politicians Epstein files. 03:05:54.480 --> 03:06:02.680 So will there be a major impact on any other famous individual from the Epstein 03:06:02.680 --> 03:06:07.820 files that come out this year, whether it be, you know, 03:06:08.180 --> 03:06:14.040 wealthy people or entertainers or anybody who's well known for other reasons? 03:06:15.100 --> 03:06:17.540 I got to believe that the answer is yes. 03:06:17.920 --> 03:06:19.360 I got to say yes, too. 03:06:20.000 --> 03:06:25.980 There's somebody that we hadn't really talked about that is going to get blowback from this. 03:06:27.780 --> 03:06:31.700 You know, and I'm going to, I will say yes. 03:06:31.700 --> 03:06:41.460 I will go further this time because we already know Melinda French Gates specifically 03:06:41.460 --> 03:06:47.960 said that one of the reasons for her divorce was her husband's involvement with Epstein. 03:06:48.040 --> 03:06:49.760 But we've already heard about him. 03:06:49.760 --> 03:06:54.280 He's already gotten some blowback. But we will have something in the Epstein 03:06:54.280 --> 03:07:01.940 files that validates an issue with Bill Gates above and beyond pictures of him 03:07:01.940 --> 03:07:04.960 with Epstein that are arguably innocent. 03:07:05.700 --> 03:07:11.120 We're going to hear something about Bill Gates involved in a way that is not innocent. 03:07:11.800 --> 03:07:16.440 I hope not. I mean, I, you know. 03:07:16.720 --> 03:07:17.160 I hear you. 03:07:17.160 --> 03:07:20.280 And I, and I, and I hope not, not in a way of like, I don't, 03:07:20.320 --> 03:07:22.000 I don't want to hear it if it really happened. 03:07:23.870 --> 03:07:27.070 If it really happened, string him up at his knees, you know, whatever. 03:07:28.930 --> 03:07:34.470 But I'm just going to say, like, if Melinda French Gates believed Bill Gates 03:07:34.470 --> 03:07:37.910 when he said, oh, yeah, I hung out with him, but it was nothing. 03:07:38.930 --> 03:07:43.390 They might not be divorced today. So she's got to know something. 03:07:43.930 --> 03:07:47.270 I'm going to take that as the extra smoke on Bill Gates. 03:07:47.910 --> 03:07:48.390 Okay. 03:07:50.150 --> 03:07:53.150 But whether or not it's actually Bill Gates, I'm going to predict there are 03:07:53.150 --> 03:07:59.410 going to be some other people above and beyond who we have heard about already, 03:07:59.550 --> 03:08:03.850 where there is something that comes out of the files that is extremely bad for them. 03:08:04.190 --> 03:08:07.970 Now, on all of these, Trump, the other politicians, this one, 03:08:08.130 --> 03:08:14.070 I want to caveat this by saying this might not mean proof that would hold up 03:08:14.070 --> 03:08:16.310 in a court of law that they committed a crime. 03:08:16.310 --> 03:08:19.390 that's a really high bar and that 03:08:19.390 --> 03:08:23.170 might not be in there but but allegations 03:08:23.170 --> 03:08:28.630 things that seem credible things that are like okay we may not be able to prove 03:08:28.630 --> 03:08:36.030 it but that looks pretty damn fishy you know that kind of stuff okay okay and 03:08:36.030 --> 03:08:43.130 we are at the very last thing which is our traditional death predictions Transcription by CastingWords. 03:08:43.890 --> 03:08:45.650 Which one broke up? 03:08:46.170 --> 03:08:49.090 People who will die in 2024. 03:08:49.810 --> 03:08:54.170 Oh, the dead. Okay. Our dead pool. Okay. All right. So who are we? 03:08:54.370 --> 03:08:58.450 Okay. Now, we've also typically put this into two categories. 03:09:00.030 --> 03:09:02.990 One are just celebrities that are really old. 03:09:03.510 --> 03:09:07.130 And it's like, okay, at some point, their time will come. 03:09:07.290 --> 03:09:13.710 And then we've always made ourselves go with somebody who's not old that we're still predicting. 03:09:13.890 --> 03:09:17.770 So I will go, let's go with the old ones first. Now I brought up a list. 03:09:18.550 --> 03:09:22.130 IMDb has a list of oldest living actors and celebrities. 03:09:24.010 --> 03:09:29.150 The first few, I don't even, well, Ray Anthony, I have no idea. 03:09:29.710 --> 03:09:33.570 Jacqueline White, no idea. Eva Marie Saint, I've heard the name, 03:09:33.750 --> 03:09:36.030 but I couldn't necessarily bring her up. 03:09:36.270 --> 03:09:39.010 She was apparently in some Hitchcock movies and some other stuff. 03:09:39.570 --> 03:09:44.850 Bridget Ober, no idea. Lee Grant, no idea. First one that I'm like, oh, yeah, definitely. 03:09:45.650 --> 03:09:51.290 Dick Van Dyke just turned 100 a few days ago. There were pictures of his birthday 03:09:51.290 --> 03:09:53.010 party and him doing stuff at his birthday party. 03:09:53.030 --> 03:09:56.170 Yeah, but I tell you what, he looks pretty good. I'm not betting on, 03:09:56.230 --> 03:09:58.790 I guess, Dick Van Dyke. Okay, I'll tell you what. 03:09:59.490 --> 03:10:02.150 I've seen him exercise still. 100 is 100. 03:10:02.150 --> 03:10:03.050 I've seen him drive. 03:10:03.650 --> 03:10:05.710 I know, but I've seen, listen. 03:10:05.850 --> 03:10:06.490 Yeah, I know, I know what you're saying. 03:10:06.490 --> 03:10:10.510 I see a lot of people are getting to 100. What I'm saying is I'm not predicting this year. 03:10:11.070 --> 03:10:11.470 Okay. 03:10:12.110 --> 03:10:14.990 It's just that I've seen him. He's still working out. He's still, 03:10:15.030 --> 03:10:17.990 you're still driving until recently for heaven's sakes. Okay. 03:10:19.270 --> 03:10:23.630 So are you going to explicitly predict he will be alive at the end of the year? 03:10:23.790 --> 03:10:28.490 Yes, I'm going to go with Dick Van Dyke will make it to the end of 2025. 03:10:28.950 --> 03:10:32.390 Okay, I will say Dick Van Dyke will not. But I definitely see- I mean. 03:10:32.390 --> 03:10:33.150 2026, sorry. 03:10:33.670 --> 03:10:38.090 Yeah, 2026. Yeah, he, I mean, you're right. For 100 years old, 03:10:38.210 --> 03:10:40.930 he looks pretty good. He's pretty spry still for 100. 03:10:41.230 --> 03:10:41.550 Yeah. 03:10:42.230 --> 03:10:46.830 The next one I recognize, age 99, Alan Greenspan. 03:10:48.050 --> 03:10:50.310 Shit for real he's. 03:10:50.310 --> 03:10:52.250 99 yep. 03:10:54.310 --> 03:11:01.430 Okay pass I don't want to predict Alan Greenspan's death I think he gets a lot of shit. 03:11:02.130 --> 03:11:06.930 I'm going to say yes to Alan Greenspan I'm going to hit the other 99s and I'm 03:11:06.930 --> 03:11:12.970 not going to go past 99 Gene Shalit, David Attenborough and Mel Brooks Jesus. 03:11:12.970 --> 03:11:14.850 David Attenborough is 99? 03:11:15.730 --> 03:11:20.350 Yes Okay. I'm going to say all three of them die. All three of them die. 03:11:20.690 --> 03:11:21.750 Gene Shallot, David Attenborough. 03:11:21.990 --> 03:11:22.570 You're killing them all. 03:11:22.790 --> 03:11:23.770 I'm killing them all. 03:11:24.610 --> 03:11:27.250 I'm going to just go predict one. Gene Shallot. 03:11:27.690 --> 03:11:33.230 Okay. Will you, are you predicting the Attenborough and Brooks live or just not? 03:11:33.230 --> 03:11:36.910 No, no, no, no, no. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm passing on predicting those. 03:11:37.010 --> 03:11:38.890 I'm just going to predict that Gene Shallot dies. 03:11:39.390 --> 03:11:44.470 Okay. Do you have any other old people that you want to predict? 03:11:44.910 --> 03:11:46.210 And then we'll talk young people. 03:11:46.210 --> 03:11:48.670 I already predicted Fidel would still be dead, so okay. 03:11:48.730 --> 03:11:50.650 Yeah, you already predicted Fidel will still be dead. 03:11:52.410 --> 03:11:57.090 Let's see. Well, one that is old that I saw on the list, Clint Eastwood. 03:11:59.230 --> 03:12:04.530 And he recently stopped working, by the way. 03:12:05.350 --> 03:12:10.850 I mean, you know, I remember he canceled some work recently. 03:12:12.270 --> 03:12:15.270 No, I don't want to predict any more of these people dying right now. 03:12:15.390 --> 03:12:17.830 I'm good with the ones we predicted. 03:12:18.370 --> 03:12:22.510 Okay. And obviously I predicted, well, I didn't predict he'd actually die. 03:12:22.670 --> 03:12:25.530 I predicted a significant health-related issue for Donald Trump. 03:12:27.830 --> 03:12:31.810 Any young people you want to add to our dead pool? Steve Miller. 03:12:31.850 --> 03:12:33.590 I'll say young, under 40, under 40. 03:12:33.670 --> 03:12:34.190 Steve Miller. 03:12:35.310 --> 03:12:36.810 Oh, the one in the administration. 03:12:37.410 --> 03:12:39.370 Yes. That's Steve Miller. 03:12:39.970 --> 03:12:40.890 Is he under 40? 03:12:40.890 --> 03:12:41.310 We have us. 03:12:41.310 --> 03:12:42.270 I just said under 40. 03:12:42.390 --> 03:12:44.510 No, he's under 30. He's under 40. 03:12:45.370 --> 03:12:49.050 Because there's also Steve Miller, the musician, but that's entirely different. 03:12:49.290 --> 03:12:51.750 No, that's not the same Steve Miller I'm talking about. 03:12:52.730 --> 03:12:55.830 Okay, let's see. Born in 1985. 03:12:56.370 --> 03:12:57.070 I told you. 03:12:57.410 --> 03:13:00.650 Oh, that makes him. He was born in August. He is over 40. 03:13:01.890 --> 03:13:02.930 He just turned 40. 03:13:02.930 --> 03:13:04.790 I'll let you have him. I'll let you have him. 03:13:04.810 --> 03:13:05.450 Okay. All right. 03:13:05.670 --> 03:13:09.370 I'll let you have him. Let's see. Do I want to do one of these? 03:13:11.490 --> 03:13:18.250 Okay, fine. I'll do one that I hope is incorrect. But I will do Adriana Grande. 03:13:19.650 --> 03:13:22.230 What? And the reason is... 03:13:22.230 --> 03:13:24.450 Why are you killing her? She's so young. 03:13:25.070 --> 03:13:30.390 The reason is, on her press tour for Wicked 2, she looked really awful. 03:13:30.890 --> 03:13:31.430 Okay. 03:13:31.830 --> 03:13:34.690 She looks like she's going through some stuff. That's why. 03:13:34.850 --> 03:13:35.810 That sucks. 03:13:36.590 --> 03:13:38.330 Now, I don't know... 03:13:38.330 --> 03:13:39.230 I wish her well. 03:13:39.510 --> 03:13:45.470 I wish her well, too. I think, you know, but, you know, she didn't look great. 03:13:45.730 --> 03:13:47.870 Now, and of course, there was a lot of pushback. 03:13:48.170 --> 03:13:50.250 We're like, you know, don't talk about people's appearances. 03:13:50.250 --> 03:13:52.050 You don't know what's going on with them. 03:13:52.390 --> 03:13:56.550 Don't judge them. They've got their own thing going on. Granted, all of that, sorry. 03:13:57.310 --> 03:14:01.050 But she looked unwell. I'm sorry. She didn't look great. 03:14:01.290 --> 03:14:05.790 Like, and hopefully she'll snap out of it and she'll be doing great soon. But anyway. 03:14:07.040 --> 03:14:09.480 Okay, that's all I have. 03:14:09.720 --> 03:14:16.140 Okay, by the way, one guy. I'll predict that Joe Biden's still alive by the end of this year, 2026. 03:14:16.500 --> 03:14:25.580 I will say yes. I will say, in conjunction with my prediction about Trump, 03:14:25.860 --> 03:14:31.540 I will say Joe Biden will continue to look like he's better, 03:14:32.040 --> 03:14:35.280 healthier, and more mentally with it than Donald Trump. 03:14:35.280 --> 03:14:38.020 Yes, I will agree with that as well. 03:14:38.660 --> 03:14:45.640 You know, one thing that I reminded me why I really deeply appreciated that 03:14:45.640 --> 03:14:50.820 man so much is that I am sure that Joe Biden could have found somebody to give 03:14:50.820 --> 03:14:52.680 him a fucking private jet to fly to St. Croix. 03:14:53.340 --> 03:14:56.560 And instead, he flew commercial anyway to go on vacation. 03:14:57.360 --> 03:14:58.040 Okay, yeah. 03:14:59.560 --> 03:15:00.600 I'm sorry, but. 03:15:00.600 --> 03:15:04.400 By the way, people have been criticized, like, there was somebody on Fox complaining 03:15:04.400 --> 03:15:07.800 that he was on vacation in the week between Christmas and New Year's. 03:15:10.360 --> 03:15:12.240 What is he supposed to be doing? 03:15:13.300 --> 03:15:17.760 As, you know, as an ex-president, like, they're like, oh, look, 03:15:17.900 --> 03:15:19.680 Joe Biden's on vacation again. 03:15:21.500 --> 03:15:26.000 What the fuck? Did they explain what the hell he's supposed to be doing? 03:15:26.700 --> 03:15:35.060 I mean, frankly, his entire life should be vacation now. Yes! 03:15:35.060 --> 03:15:36.100 Pretty much! 03:15:36.300 --> 03:15:37.620 Leave him alone. 03:15:38.280 --> 03:15:45.180 That was Tommy Lahren, who has absolutely, I mean, her head has a for rent sign in it. 03:15:45.320 --> 03:15:50.380 I mean, you know, there's just nothing there, so whatever. All right. 03:15:50.680 --> 03:15:55.040 Okay, we're done. Okay, we are done. That was the last question I had. 03:15:55.040 --> 03:16:00.040 And any other last-minute predictions you want to make about anything at all? 03:16:00.180 --> 03:16:02.000 Anything at all? Well, one very important thing. 03:16:02.380 --> 03:16:02.860 Yes. 03:16:03.100 --> 03:16:04.360 I don't want to be remiss. 03:16:04.760 --> 03:16:05.400 Pain. That's right. 03:16:06.260 --> 03:16:08.480 We're in for a lot more of it. Yes. 03:16:09.200 --> 03:16:10.680 Unfortunately, I think you're right. 03:16:14.170 --> 03:16:19.110 Yes, 2026 will be another year for pain. 03:16:21.030 --> 03:16:24.670 Anyway, that's it. Thank you, everybody, for joining us. Next week, 03:16:24.690 --> 03:16:29.950 we will be reviewing the predictions we made about 2025. 03:16:30.950 --> 03:16:35.790 And we will be recording that on January 4th, which means I only got a couple days. 03:16:35.950 --> 03:16:39.750 It usually takes me—this is a three-hour show. It's going to take me like six 03:16:39.750 --> 03:16:45.390 hours to go through last year's show and try to pre-fact check everything that 03:16:45.390 --> 03:16:48.110 we predicted last year, write down every prediction we made. 03:16:48.250 --> 03:16:52.390 Because even though we had like a document like we did have this time, 03:16:52.550 --> 03:16:56.770 the actual set of predictions we make in the show does not exactly match. 03:16:56.870 --> 03:17:02.410 So I listen to the show a little bit at a time, pause it, write down predictions, 03:17:02.670 --> 03:17:05.550 go check whatever I can find, et cetera. 03:17:05.670 --> 03:17:09.890 It takes a long time to prep for this show. So everybody, you better appreciate it. 03:17:10.350 --> 03:17:14.410 Anyway, we'll be recording that show next week and putting it out a couple days 03:17:14.410 --> 03:17:18.030 later. So hope you enjoyed this year's prediction show for 2026. 03:17:18.370 --> 03:17:24.710 Tune in a year and a week from now, and you will hear how we did on our 2026 predictions. 03:17:25.010 --> 03:17:26.710 And tune in next week. 03:17:27.780 --> 03:17:30.820 Do you hear how we did last year? And that is it. 03:17:31.280 --> 03:17:34.980 I think, Yvonne, we can dispense with the highlights from the Slack and all 03:17:34.980 --> 03:17:37.080 that kind of stuff, unless you're really anxious for it. 03:17:37.460 --> 03:17:39.840 You have one? Okay, go for it. Go for it. Go for it. 03:17:40.580 --> 03:17:46.360 Sam shared an article that the headline was, what did we get stuck in our rectums last year? 03:17:46.520 --> 03:17:51.700 Okay, this is the time of year to be grateful for not having things stuck up 03:17:51.700 --> 03:17:55.080 our asses and to think of those less fortunate than us. 03:17:55.080 --> 03:17:58.720 So spare a thought for those Americans who misjudged their capacity, 03:17:59.020 --> 03:18:02.400 the capacity of their own orifices. All reports are taken from U.S. 03:18:02.720 --> 03:18:05.280 Consumer Product Safety Commission's database of emergency room visits. 03:18:06.320 --> 03:18:08.560 Yeah, there is a list of that. 03:18:08.560 --> 03:18:12.120 I'm not going to go into the detail. And they list multiple orifices, not just the one. 03:18:12.460 --> 03:18:12.900 Yeah. 03:18:13.060 --> 03:18:17.440 And things that have been reported in those over the course of last year. 03:18:17.740 --> 03:18:20.640 Apparently quite a lot of things. They may get to the Consumer Product Safety 03:18:20.640 --> 03:18:22.220 Commission for some reason. So there you go. 03:18:22.220 --> 03:18:26.120 Well, because apparently that product is not safe for that use. 03:18:27.300 --> 03:18:32.440 Well, yes, that would be a problem. So anyway, on that note. 03:18:32.440 --> 03:18:36.700 Okay, with that, give the full reference. Where was that publication in case 03:18:36.700 --> 03:18:37.000 people want to look at it? 03:18:37.000 --> 03:18:42.640 This was called on defector.com, D-E-F-E-C-T-O-R.com. 03:18:42.820 --> 03:18:46.840 And that was the name of the article, What Did We Get Stuck in Our Rectums Last Year? 03:18:47.980 --> 03:18:53.100 Excellent. So anybody wanting to go look at that, have fun, it is worth a chuckle 03:18:53.100 --> 03:18:57.840 because you do envision like, what the hell were these people thinking? 03:18:58.800 --> 03:19:02.320 And sometimes you know what they were thinking and you'd rather not. But, you know. 03:19:02.400 --> 03:19:02.660 Exactly. 03:19:04.900 --> 03:19:09.640 Okay, we're done. Thanks, everybody. We're out of here. Have a great week. Oh, a happy new year. 03:19:09.960 --> 03:19:15.080 Well, by the time you listen to this new year, the moment will be passed. 03:19:15.280 --> 03:19:16.800 But I hope you had a good new year. 03:19:16.800 --> 03:19:20.400 Well, you can still, I mean, we still cheer like happy new year to so many people 03:19:20.400 --> 03:19:22.020 like even a week afterwards. So, okay. 03:19:22.100 --> 03:19:27.360 Happy new year. I hope you have a whole great new 2026, despite our prediction 03:19:27.360 --> 03:19:29.000 of pain. We're out of here. 03:19:29.340 --> 03:19:29.560 Yes. 03:19:29.720 --> 03:19:30.040 Goodbye. 03:19:30.460 --> 03:19:30.920 Bye. 03:20:02.440 --> 03:20:06.040 Okay, that's it. Later. Bye. 03:20:06.440 --> 03:20:06.960 Bye.