Sam: Hey, Sam from the Future here. Just a quick note, a whole bunch of times during
Sam: the show that you're about to hear,
Sam: Yvonne and I talk about the Curmudgeon's Corner meetup scheduled for Wednesday,
Sam: July 2nd, and how if you're interested, let us know, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: Well, as it turns out, Yvonne had something happen that kept him from actually
Sam: leaving Florida on Sunday night.
Sam: So he's not going to be around on Tuesday after all, or Wednesday after all,
Sam: or any of the days in between.
Sam: He may or may not want to talk about that next week. I don't know.
Sam: But in any case, he's not going to be around.
Sam: If anyone wants to hang out with me, still feel free to let me know.
Sam: I'm happy to do something Wednesday night, July 2nd. And maybe we can like,
Sam: I don't know, FaceTime Yvonne or something.
Sam: But he's not going to be in town after all. Plans got shifted around and canceled
Sam: at the last minute, and yeah, so maybe we'll do that another time.
Sam: Who knows when Yvonne and I will be in the same place at the same time again,
Sam: but it's not going to be this coming week.
Sam: And the only reason you have this note at the beginning is because I am also
Sam: late getting this stupid podcast out.
Sam: It's not stupid. It's a very intelligent, amazing podcast.
Sam: But in any case, yeah, so keep that in mind. When you hear all the notes about
Sam: that, like, let me know if you want to hang out, but it'll just be me.
Sam: You know, we did have a couple of people express interest, but I don't know
Sam: if we'll still do the same thing in the same way when it's just me.
Sam: It is what it is. Here comes the real show. Do, do, do.
Ivan: Zero. Liftoff.
Sam: Whoa. It's going, it's going, it's blowing up.
Ivan: It's blowing up. Yes. If this were a Elon Musk record, that's exactly what it'd be doing. Yes.
Ivan: We're kind of, you know.
Sam: Yeah, there we go. Our stream is going.
Ivan: Streaming.
Sam: Streaming.
Ivan: Streaming it.
Sam: All of the lovely streamers of the world. And this thing is here.
Ivan: A strong, powerful stream.
Sam: Sure.
Ivan: God.
Sam: Got a nice little cough going. I got a nice little cough going this morning too. I don't know why.
Ivan: Well, I, I, okay. I am sure that our reasons are different.
Sam: Uh-huh.
Ivan: I, I, I, I just finished a, a very strenuous workout. And, uh, I don't know.
Sam: I did not. I did not.
Ivan: And I, and I.
Sam: I, I just woke up.
Ivan: I tend to, you know, after doing extreme cardio to have a bit of a cough afterwards.
Sam: Okay. There we go. The little notice just went out. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
Sam: blah, blah, I got it. Okay.
Sam: I guess, i guess we can just go yes yes yes here here here goes the going here.
Ivan: Goes the going okay.
Sam: Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, June 28th, 2025.
Sam: It's just after 17 UTC as we're starting to record. I am Sam Minter,
Sam: Yvonne Boas here. Hello, Yvonne.
Ivan: Hello.
Sam: Before I forget, before we say anything else, I just want to mention again,
Sam: I put this in the Sam from the Future at the beginning of last week's show, but I'll say it here too.
Sam: We are going to have a curmudgeon's corner meetup in Seattle in the next few days. So Wednesday.
Ivan: In the next few days. On Wednesday.
Sam: Well, I'm not saying it's going to last several days. We're not having like
Sam: a fire festival of curmudgeon's corner. You know.
Ivan: That would be.
Ivan: Let me call that fire fest guy and say, hey, look, we're trying to organize an event.
Ivan: And can you organize, you know, the Firefest Carbungeon's Corner special?
Sam: Yes, exactly. No, Wednesday, July 2nd, we will be getting together in the Seattle area,
Sam: probably in Seattle proper, although
Sam: we haven't decided the exact time and venue yet. It'll be July 2nd.
Sam: That's Wednesday. Yes. In the evening.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Um, you know, and we will settle an exact time and place based on interest and who's coming.
Sam: Uh, so, you know, basically, uh, if, you know, if, if you're on our curmudgeon's
Sam: corner slack, you have heard about this already.
Sam: If you're on the email list that I use to get like substitute co-hosts,
Sam: you've heard about this already. But if you are just listening,
Sam: you may not have heard about this, especially if you hadn't listened to last week's show yet.
Sam: So here's the deal. Um, yeah.
Sam: We always tell you to go to curmudgeons-corner.com and find all the ways to contact us.
Sam: Pick any way of contacting us that you would like, and let us know that you're interested in coming.
Sam: And if you do that, we will make sure to get back to you with the exact time and place.
Sam: Again, it's going to be July 2nd in the evening in Seattle, probably in Seattle, in the proper Seattle.
Ivan: I mean, you go to work in the city.
Sam: Like, I'll be at work in Seattle during the day.
Ivan: And I'm staying in the city, so, yeah.
Sam: And, you know, now, we realize a couple of our listeners are north of Seattle.
Sam: I actually live north of Seattle.
Sam: So if we had, like, massive demand, maybe we'd move it slightly north.
Sam: But I think downtown Seattle is probably where it's going to be.
Sam: We're probably going to pick some restaurant.
Sam: But if you are interested in coming, please pick any one of the ways of contacting
Sam: us on curmudgeons-corner.com.
Sam: let us know and we will put you on the list to tell you exactly where and when
Sam: it's going to be and also if you have any constraints like hey i'd really love
Sam: to come but i can only come if let us know we'll see if we can accommodate we
Sam: may be able to we may not we'll.
Ivan: Try to be flexible.
Sam: So far we have confirmation from uh bruce i.
Ivan: Think bob didn't bob say he was going to try to figure it.
Sam: Out but bob said he'd try to figure it out too but we don't have final confirmation
Sam: yet okay so but we get we probably got bruce and bob okay there may be others
Sam: there may not be like i think my wife has said she can come oh yeah oh cool so uh okay so.
Ivan: That way because i was telling my wife i'm like hey so she was asked is brandy
Ivan: gonna be there and i said well uh it's,
Ivan: I hope so.
Sam: I think so. We shall see. Nothing's final. Nothing's final.
Ivan: Nothing's final. Nothing's final. This is fluid. Plans are fluid.
Ivan: You know, it was like, well, I, of course, realized this was now,
Ivan: but Sam was also kind of like me where it seemed like, oh, I'm flying up there. It's like months away.
Sam: Yeah, it's the future.
Ivan: It's the future. Somewhere in the future. You know, and I'm like,
Ivan: no, the future is like now. I'm flying Sunday.
Sam: Yes. Which, as we're recording, is now tomorrow.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: So, you know, there is a good chance Yvonne will actually be in Seattle before I push out this podcast.
Ivan: It's possible.
Sam: You know, because I got other things to do today after we record.
Sam: So I'm probably not going to get to it until tomorrow. So, anyway.
Ivan: Well, I mean, I'm flying at night. So, you know, I'm flying at night.
Ivan: I'm taking this flight that leaves at 8 o'clock, which is the flight that I
Ivan: took six years ago to get there. That was delayed to oblivion. Okay?
Ivan: That was literally left like 10 hours, 8 to 10 hours late.
Ivan: Hopefully, that won't be the case this time.
Sam: Right. Yes.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Hopefully.
Ivan: That was bad.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah, so this is one of the few times Yvonne and I are in the same part
Sam: of the world at the same time. So we're having a meetup.
Sam: So let's see. And we know we have a few listeners in the Seattle area.
Sam: So, you know, come on board.
Ivan: Come on down.
Sam: I just yelled for no reason there. Okay, so the show as a whole,
Sam: we will do the usual thing.
Sam: But first, I'll do a couple of movies.
Sam: Yvonne will use the timer to keep me honest.
Ivan: Oh, oh, oh, shit. Let me get the, yeah, hold on.
Sam: And then we'll do more serious things. And, you know, this is the kind of week
Sam: I figure, like, we will let each other choose and maybe somebody will go rogue.
Sam: But really, I think there's three big things this week, right?
Ivan: I like, I have no idea. I gotta be honest. I don't know.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: No, no. In terms of, like, look, I know a lot of stuff's happened.
Ivan: But I'm in a little bit of a blur, like right now, because so much,
Ivan: so much shit's been going on.
Ivan: I, I, I'm like, I, I.
Ivan: It seems like a blur.
Sam: To me, the three big things of the week seem like, first of all,
Sam: you'll be amazed. Wait, wait, wait.
Ivan: This week, did we bomb? Was this?
Sam: Yes. The bombing of Iran was since we recorded the last show.
Ivan: Since we recorded the last show. Okay.
Sam: I did insert a Sam from the Future at the beginning saying we bombed Iran.
Ivan: Right, right, right, right.
Sam: Because we recorded Friday night and then the bombing was Saturday.
Ivan: Okay. That's why I said it's a blur. I wasn't even sure.
Ivan: Hey, did this happen since the last show? The answer is yes.
Sam: Yes. Yes. So we bombed Iran. We had the New York mayor primaries. That's right.
Ivan: That was this week, too.
Sam: That was this week, too. And we had a bunch of SCOTUS rulings at the end of
Sam: the week. I think those are the three big things.
Ivan: You know, I am debating something. I came home. My wife tries to avoid the news.
Ivan: It gives her a lot of anxiety. and i totally get it i can.
Sam: See that yeah.
Ivan: I i look i i get it i i get
Ivan: it there's this just you know yeah so i
Ivan: came home i don't know she saw something in the news and and
Ivan: i'm like i could see her face like something's but i'm like and i'm
Ivan: like what happened i'm like i don't know i just saw something in
Ivan: the news and i was just like oh fuck what the fuck you know it's
Ivan: all i am like yeah okay i i get that okay all right
Ivan: yeah i i get it so i i i
Ivan: was debating sam yes let me give you if i gave you an offer right now say look
Ivan: we got a mission to jupiter i and in order to do this we need to put you in
Ivan: a cryogenic sleep for three years okay,
Ivan: To make it there. So right now, we will put you on a cryo sleep.
Ivan: Basically, you will not age.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: So we will send you to Jupiter. Okay?
Sam: To Jupiter.
Ivan: Basically, you're not going to lose those three years. Actually,
Ivan: I would like to see if I could take my family so that way I'm like,
Ivan: you know, they don't lose time either.
Ivan: Take a family. We're going to put you on a cryo sleep.
Sam: So we're taking the whole family. We're doing like lost in space style going
Sam: to the flying saucer. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. I'll put you in a three-year cryo sleep.
Sam: And the question is, does Mr. Smith speak in and send us off course? Okay, go ahead.
Ivan: Well, but hopefully not. Okay. So we'll put you in a cryo sleep.
Ivan: So the question is, would you take the gamble now on taking a three-year cryo
Ivan: sleep and that when you wake up, things will be better than it is now?
Ivan: Which, you know, say you're not going to age.
Sam: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So you're saying that gamble.
Sam: You're just saying right now that in the end, the end of the scenario is if
Sam: you could just jump forward three years, do you think it'll be better or worse than now?
Ivan: Right.
Sam: It's going to be worse. No question.
Ivan: You think it's going to be worse three.
Sam: Years from now? It's going to be worse.
Ivan: I actually think that we will hit the bottom somewhere through the three years.
Ivan: So then it's going to be at least the one thing is that while it may be worse,
Ivan: there will be the pendulum swing starting to hit the other way.
Ivan: So it won't feel as bad.
Sam: OK, so for instance, Dems take the House.
Ivan: Right. Dems take the president.
Sam: At least that. Well, three, three years. were not going to be passed.
Ivan: Oh, well, I meant four years. Well, yeah, four years, not three. Yeah, right.
Sam: Well, there's a difference there.
Ivan: Yeah, four, four, four, four. Sorry, sorry. My math got fucked up. Yeah. Four, four years.
Sam: Math is hard, like Barbie once said.
Ivan: No, if I gave you the gamble, this is the gamble. Sam, Sam, I'm going to give
Ivan: you the gamble right now.
Ivan: Listen, you're not going to age one day.
Sam: No, no. I still think it'll be worse in four years. Here's the thing.
Sam: You may be right that we may have turned the corner. Maybe.
Ivan: That's what I'm saying.
Sam: But it'll still be worse than today.
Ivan: It'll be worse, but here's the thing. Don't you prefer that it'd be worse,
Ivan: but eggs. You see what I'm saying?
Sam: Well, this is that thing that, I mean, I've mentioned a few times.
Ivan: Because it is going to get worse. You're just not going to know.
Ivan: You're just not going to be living all those moments.
Ivan: You understand what I'm saying? So when you wake up, you're going to be like
Ivan: with people that are like trying to fix the mess. I mean, that's the gamble.
Ivan: Or the problem is, right, that you're taking that gamble and whether you wake
Ivan: up four years from now, and not only is it worse, but they're making it worse.
Ivan: So which one are you betting on?
Ivan: Because remember, yes, you're right. It is going to get worse.
Ivan: The question is whether at that moment the swing is still.
Sam: It's great that that part's not even a question. The question is only is it
Sam: getting better or worse when you wake up? There's no question whatsoever.
Sam: It's going to be worse. Sorry.
Ivan: It's going to be worse. The question is whether we turn a corner or we're kind
Ivan: of like heading again in the other direction.
Sam: Here's the deal. even if we're heading the right direction again it's gonna
Sam: be a very very long slog i get that but here's what.
Ivan: I'm the option.
Sam: You just want to you just want to skip the trauma of watching it get worse day yes yes um yes.
Ivan: I'm just like oh look i know it's gonna get worse why do i need the details.
Ivan: I don't need the fucking details.
Ivan: I don't need the damn details, okay? I know it's happening.
Sam: I would not skip it.
Sam: I would stick around.
Ivan: No, but wait. But you see, the thing is, I'm sending you on a trip to Jupiter.
Sam: Yes, I know.
Ivan: So when you wake up, we're going to be at the Jupiter star base.
Sam: Uh-huh.
Ivan: That is not by Elon Musk because Elon Musk will be dead in Mars.
Ivan: Hopefully when you wake up.
Ivan: He will have crashed. You wake up. And part of the good news is,
Ivan: Trump is, okay, you wake up. Imagine you skip all of this. You wake up.
Ivan: Okay. Everything's the shit, but Trump is dead.
Ivan: Musk crash landed into Mars.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And yeah, everything else is worse, but you get those two bits of news when
Ivan: you wake up. Shit. I'm like, ah, thank God.
Sam: See, I would still like to experience the four intervening years and be awake
Sam: when those things happened.
Sam: If they happen. I don't think Elon's actually getting to Mars and Trump will live until he's 193.
Sam: So, but it's an interesting thought exercise.
Sam: And look, it does, it does tie into,
Sam: like, I was going to say, yeah, I keep coming back to this conversation I had
Sam: with a friend of my son's,
Sam: like a number of years back at this point who was talking about how they would
Sam: have loved to live in the 80s because things were better in the 80s and they
Sam: they they were and i was like no things were not better in the 80s and they were imagine.
Ivan: If you're listen think about if you're gay by imagine being gay,
Ivan: You know, say you're a gay person now. Move to how gay people were treated in the 80s.
Sam: Well, and here's the thing.
Ivan: Holy shit.
Sam: You know, I'm not going to go out of school.
Sam: This person is one of the letters on the LGBTQ spectrum.
Sam: And the thing that I did not think to say at the time.
Sam: Like I got to the point of saying, no, things weren't better in the 80s,
Sam: especially because they said, especially for people like me.
Sam: And I'm like, no, things were not better.
Sam: However, what I didn't realize until weeks later or at least days later,
Sam: and I never went back and finished the conversation with this person.
Sam: But the difference is the direction of change.
Ivan: Well, that is. Yes. But still, you know.
Sam: It was worse. It was worse.
Ivan: One of those things that I know.
Sam: It was worse.
Ivan: It's way worse.
Sam: Whereas now it's objectively better in some ways, but rapidly getting worse.
Ivan: And well, okay, Sam, I think you're minimizing how really bad it was.
Sam: Oh, I know. I know. But what I'm saying is the levels, it was worse than better now.
Sam: The direction is the difference. It was getting better than and getting worse now.
Ivan: This is one of these things where it's like, hey, I lived in a mud hut with no running water, okay?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Because literally that's where gay people were. And, oh, by the way,
Ivan: there were people trying to kill me regularly and attack me and harass me and refuse me jobs.
Ivan: These literally we would refuse people jobs over being gay. but I still remember,
Ivan: One story about an AIDS patient that, well, this is at the beginning of the AIDS epidemic.
Ivan: When they came to our store, okay, to purchase medication at the pharmacy counter,
Ivan: people were so freaked out because nobody understood anything about this,
Ivan: that after the person left,
Ivan: cornered off the prescription counter and like Clorox bleached the entire area.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Because they were scared they were going to get AIDS from touching the counter. All right?
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, think about... I mean,
Ivan: that's...
Sam: No, no. Look, I get it.
Ivan: So my point is that right now, they have jobs.
Ivan: They have power. They have a lot of things. But, obviously, a lot of those things are being attacked.
Ivan: But it is from a position that is like exponentially,
Ivan: exponentially better than it was.
Sam: Two things. How successful that is depends a lot on where you are.
Sam: But also, my whole point was this is exactly parallel to your Jupiter.
Ivan: But globally, Sam, it's not just here.
Sam: No, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know.
Sam: But my point is just this is exactly parallel to your Jupiter scenario, right?
Sam: It is that what you're talking about is not the absolute levels. It's the direction.
Sam: You want to skip the years because you hope it's getting better instead of worse, you know?
Ivan: No, I get that. No, but my point is that, yeah, but look, one thing that I always, you know,
Ivan: always have to be reminded is, unfortunately, how, you know,
Ivan: because we look at it from the perspective of,
Ivan: you know, our humanity and how our lives are relatively short in the grand scheme
Ivan: of things. Because that's just the reality.
Ivan: And that historically, you know, progress has never been linear.
Ivan: And that's just the damn reality of it, you know?
Sam: What was it? Hegel's dialectic.
Ivan: Okay, I'm not familiar with that one.
Sam: It's basically that you make progress and then there's a counterreaction and
Sam: you end up in the middle and then you make progress and there's a counterreaction
Sam: and you end up in the middle and this process continues.
Sam: Continues. I will look up whether I'm remembering the right thing or if I just made something up.
Ivan: It sounds, you know.
Sam: Well, I know it's the thing, right?
Sam: That I just don't know if that's the right name. Hold on. Okay.
Sam: Hegel's dialectic.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: And the answer is... I am making sure... From Wikipedia.
Sam: Dialectic, also known as the dialectical method, refers originally to dialogue
Sam: between people holding different points of view about a subject but wishing
Sam: to derive at the truth through reasoned argument. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: Hegelianism... We figured dialectic to no longer refer to a literal dialogue.
Sam: Instead, the term takes on the specialized meaning of development by way of
Sam: overcoming internal contradictions.
Sam: Dialectical materialism, a theory advanced by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels,
Sam: adapted the Hegelian dialectic into a materialist theory of history.
Sam: The legacy of Hegelian and Marxian dialectics has been criticized by philosophers
Sam: such as Karl Popper and Mario Bungi,
Sam: who considered it unscientific.
Sam: It implies a developmental process and so does not fit naturally within classical logic.
Sam: Nevertheless, some 20th century logicians have attempted to formalize it. Let's see.
Ivan: That was a very big word salad that didn't actually say anything,
Ivan: can I be honest? Sounds like AI wrote that damn thing.
Sam: Here we go. The dialectic is sometimes—this is the part I was saying about it in the middle.
Sam: The dialectic is sometimes presented in a threefold manner as first stated by
Sam: Heinrich Mortise Chalibaus—I'm sure
Sam: I murdered that—as comprising three dialectical stages of development.
Sam: a thesis giving rise to its reaction, an antithesis, which contradicts or negates
Sam: the thesis and the tension between the two being resolved by means of a synthesis,
Sam: although Hegel opposed those terms.
Ivan: Anyway.
Sam: So yes, thesis, antithesis, synthesis. We also talk about this as the pendulum
Sam: swinging back and forth. I think you even started talking about that.
Ivan: Yeah, I did say that.
Sam: But it adds the notion that each time the pendulum swings, you're actually moving
Sam: a little bit forward. You don't end up exactly where you were before.
Sam: Of course, I think that's sort of optimistic.
Sam: There are certainly periods of history where, yeah, your pendulum is swinging
Sam: back and forth, but you end up worse than you were for a long time.
Ivan: Well, it's for a long time, but like I said, you know, one of the things that
Ivan: go back to the fact that, yeah, we don't, the relative,
Ivan: grand scheme of things in terms of the history of the universe,
Ivan: you know, our lives are just a minor spec in
Ivan: the in in in that time frame yeah and
Ivan: so if you look at it like overall you know
Ivan: through the hundreds of thousands of millions of years
Ivan: well yeah things have moved forward in some way you know people aren't just
Ivan: hunter gatherers you know doing subsistence out like you know attacking i don't
Ivan: know i keep thinking about this there's visual when you go on spaceship earth
Ivan: at epcot which goes through the history of, uh,
Ivan: of humanity as shows, shows humans communicating for the first time and like
Ivan: attacking some kind of very large animal, you know, to try to kill it and eat it, you know?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Uh, yeah. So, so it's kind of like that visual that I, that I keep thinking
Ivan: about, you know, back then in the middle of like a winter storm, you know, you know.
Sam: I mean, eventually we'll get another asteroid killing us. like they killed the
Sam: dinosaurs and then, you know, we'll be done.
Sam: Unless we've all moved to Elon's Mars colony. But, you know, the thing is,
Sam: You know, we talk about these swings back and forth, but it is,
Sam: you have to remember that sometimes the swings are very, very long.
Sam: Arguably, after the Civil War, we had Reconstruction, and then we had the end
Sam: of Reconstruction, and arguably we didn't get back to the same place in terms
Sam: of civil rights progress for 100 years,
Sam: or nearly 100 years.
Sam: and then you know and hell you know the roman empire fell
Sam: and europe didn't get back to the same levels of technology and
Sam: enlightenment and blah blah blah years for hundreds of years you know so you
Sam: know and hopefully this is a pendulum swing that lasts you know well one thing
Sam: that is i suspect i will say we're not going generations i.
Ivan: I don't know about generations i mean well Well, generations,
Ivan: well, generations are really short, so that's like.
Sam: General generation usually means about 20 years.
Ivan: Yeah, 20 years. I think that one of the things that I see from a lot of what's,
Ivan: you know, what's going on is that you see,
Ivan: you shared a recent survey that showed like, hey, how do you feel about this
Ivan: whole immigration policy right now, now that it's in force?
Ivan: And like literally like 70% of people say they hate it. 70%.
Ivan: 70%. I mean, it's not like kind of like this isn't like like many other divisive
Ivan: issues where people are like, whatever people in theory thought it sounded great
Ivan: in practice. They like we hate this.
Ivan: So, you know, it doesn't even take that long in terms of like getting the general populace to hate it.
Ivan: Of course, now now, of course, it's how this turns into some kind of a political change.
Ivan: But, you know, I don't know. I'm an optimist.
Ivan: So I think that somehow, even through all of this fucking bullshit that we'll figure out.
Sam: I, I, I'm a long-term optimist. Like if you come back in 50 years,
Sam: I'm fairly sure things will be better.
Ivan: But I, you know, I, but I, I say I am.
Sam: I am less optimistic if we're talking five or 10.
Ivan: I think it's, I think if you look at how things have progressed,
Ivan: you look at, look at every 10 decade, every 10 year mark of the last 50 years.
Ivan: and you see how things radically moved each one of those 10 years.
Ivan: I mean, think about it. Look, just 10 years ago, who was president?
Sam: Abraham Lincoln. What? Am I wrong?
Ivan: You're a little bit off. It was Obama, for God's sakes.
Sam: Oh, yes, yes. That guy.
Ivan: I mean, think about what we thought. Listen, let me put it this way.
Ivan: Think about if you were a conservative back then, how you thought,
Ivan: how bleak it was for your thinking.
Ivan: and think about the opposite how we thought at that time I was like ah,
Ivan: they're done it's over and look at that the flip in 10 years and look at the
Ivan: flip 10 years before and look at the flip 10 years before that look I don't
Ivan: I think we're always prisoners of the moment okay alright,
Ivan: and you know so we'll see 10 years from now hopefully we're still both alive and we'll be 64 years old,
Ivan: and recording this podcast at 64.
Sam: There's a song being 64.
Ivan: There's a song about 64? Fuck, I don't know that song.
Sam: The Beatles song. I hate the Beatles.
Ivan: I gotta admit, I don't like the fucking Beatles.
Ivan: I'm sure that is an unpopular opinion. I'll get roasted on.
Ivan: But I'm just not a big... I'm not gonna say I hate the Beatles,
Ivan: but I'm just like, the Beatles, I'm like, eh.
Sam: The song is when i'm 64 by the
Sam: beatles written by paul mccartney he it was one of the first songs he ever wrote
Sam: when he he wrote it when he was about 14 years old jeez but the song came out
Sam: in 1966 when he was a little bit older than 14 so he's 83.
Ivan: Now paul mccartney so yeah.
Sam: So anyway very popular beatles song and you're you're like i've never heard
Sam: of it i don't know what they're talking about.
Ivan: I don't, I don't, I don't particularly, I, I, look, like I said,
Ivan: I'm, I have never been big.
Ivan: I, I'm just like the Beatles. I'm just, to me, I'm like, eh, whatever.
Sam: Yeah. Okay.
Ivan: I'm not a big Beatles guy. Never have been.
Sam: How about the actual insects?
Ivan: Oh, I like those better than the, than the actual musical Beatles.
Sam: I'll mail you some.
Ivan: And there's plenty here. We're good. Okay. We don't need any in the mail.
Sam: Oh, no.
Ivan: Okay. No, no. We're good. We're good.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: You can give them to me when I get there. There you go. You don't have to mail them.
Sam: Oh, right.
Ivan: Oh, that would be so nice for me. Oh, hi. I haven't seen you in a few years. Here's some Beatles.
Sam: I'm sure the restaurant we'll be at will appreciate it, too.
Ivan: Oh, yeah. They'll be so thrilled by this. Yeah, absolutely. Of course.
Sam: When I open up the box at the table and they start running around.
Ivan: Oh, yeah. I'm sure the restaurant will be just thrilled with us there.
Ivan: Okay. All right. So let's move into movies.
Sam: Movies. I got two.
Ivan: So I got to give you your seven and a half minutes.
Sam: Give me five minutes each.
Ivan: Seven and a half. Five minutes. All right. I got five minutes.
Ivan: Okay. You're on the clock.
Sam: I do. Wait, wait, wait. No, don't start again. I need to mention something.
Sam: Alex has been bugging me. He hijacked the curmudgeon's corner Mastodon to post
Sam: a poll after last week's show.
Sam: for who should host the next episode of Curmudgeon's Corner and I need to report the results.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Because he is mad at me because I am talking to you right now rather than respecting
Sam: the results of this poll.
Ivan: Okay, so how many people voted on the poll?
Sam: Two. And they were both my son. Okay.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: Stealing various other people's iPads.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: Or various accounts. So the choices were Yvonne Yeah. got zero votes. Sorry.
Sam: Screw GPT.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: So not Yvonne GPT. Screw GPT. Screw GPT, which is a custom GPT that Alex has
Sam: constructed on his chat GPT account, or on mine, yours, right?
Sam: On his chat GPT account, that he is, I guess, trained in some specific way that
Sam: I guess he wants it to be the co-host.
Sam: I don't know what he's trained it on or why, but anyway. then
Sam: choice also got zero votes choice three
Sam: was yvonne and screw gpt okay together and zero votes zero fine and the fourth
Sam: choice which got two votes a hundred percent was yvonne and screw gpt special victims unit.
Ivan: There's a screw gpt special victims unit.
Sam: Apparently, apparently. Oh? I don't know.
Ivan: Okay.
Ivan: Okay, I guess I have to talk to Special Victims Unit to see what its opinions are on stuff.
Sam: Yeah. Anyway, so I needed to report on that.
Ivan: And so those are all the polls we got?
Sam: That's all the polls we got right now. And maybe...
Ivan: I guess we should start doing polls.
Sam: Maybe the next time you're out, Yvonne, I will try to talk to ScrewGPT.
Sam: You know, after the experiment with YvonneGPT, I figured, let it go at least
Sam: a year before I try to talk to AI again. because it was an interesting experiment,
Sam: but it wasn't quite good enough yet.
Sam: But after a year, it will have improved.
Sam: Yeah, it was dull.
Ivan: He was not there.
Sam: Yeah, yeah. And, you know, I told him.
Ivan: And he was very agreeable. He just agreed with you on everything.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: That's all he did.
Sam: Well, and I gave a transcript and said, try to be like Yvonne.
Sam: And I think that failed entirely. Maybe.
Ivan: And then curse once.
Sam: No, and maybe what Alex has done is trained it more specifically,
Sam: telling it characteristics of you it wants it to follow. I don't know.
Sam: But the screw thing, like, it may be somebody else. He may be training it on.
Sam: He's got a character called Screwdriver in one of his stories.
Sam: Maybe he's training it on that. I don't even know. Anyway, movies. Movies.
Ivan: All right, five minutes. Okay, you're on the clock. Go.
Sam: Got two films, five minutes each. The next one is, once again,
Sam: from the AFI list. This was number 18 in the 1999 AFI 100 Years 100 Movies list.
Sam: In 2007, it moved up to 14th place.
Sam: Anyway, Psycho from 1960.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: You ever seen it?
Ivan: Yes. It's obviously a big show. Long, long, long time ago.
Sam: So this is when I— Yeah.
Ivan: What's his name? Who was the star—I know the guy was Norman Bates as the character.
Sam: Anthony Perkins. Anthony Perkins and of course it was an Alfred Hitchcock movie,
Sam: you know this is here's the thing,
Sam: I, of course, had heard of this movie.
Sam: I had seen clips of the famous shower scene, but I had never actually watched the entire movie.
Sam: I think I'd had spoilers for certain key, like, ideas from the film.
Sam: You know, like, I wasn't entirely surprised by the ending because,
Sam: you know, this thing's been in the cultural zeitgeist
Sam: for what 65 years so
Sam: is that right 65 40
Sam: plus 20 yeah yeah 65 yeah you know but i'll give it a thumbs up it was it didn't
Sam: i don't know like i don't know how much of it was like okay i knew some of the
Sam: main beats so it wasn't as surprising as it would have been for new viewers in 1960 Uh,
Sam: it's also, you know, it does move slowly, you know, it, but that's the style of the time.
Sam: It's the Hitchcock. It's sort of a slowly building tension, et cetera,
Sam: that gets resolved at the end.
Sam: I didn't know any of the, you know, the main plot and the main characters,
Sam: you know, like what was going on with the woman that ended up in the shower?
Ivan: You know what.
Sam: Was going on you know with with her boyfriend you.
Ivan: Know who's.
Sam: Also a main character in the movie i had no idea about any.
Ivan: Of that well shit i haven't i mean i've i watched this movie i have to be honest
Ivan: it has to be well over 40 years ago i have not re-watched it since so the details
Ivan: of it other than some of the,
Ivan: The scenes are famous.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: I don't, shit, I don't remember.
Sam: Yeah, so it was interesting to me. I'm giving it a thumbs up.
Sam: It was interesting to fill in the blanks from, you know,
Sam: the knowing just those famous scenes and knowing some of the twists,
Sam: but not actually knowing the plot of the movie, not having any idea about the
Sam: actual main characters of the movie.
Sam: Norman Bates is not the main character of the movie.
Sam: Like there's, there's this couple who's on the run who ends up stopping at that
Sam: motel in the middle of the night.
Sam: And then the things happen to him with Norman Bates and, and Norman Bates' mother
Sam: comes into the plot as well in a famous way.
Ivan: Yeah. The mother. Yes.
Sam: You know, so all of that, but it was, it was interesting to fill in the gaps
Sam: and it was well constructed and it's,
Sam: it's a good movie it deserves to be high on
Sam: the list here but you know it you do
Sam: have to put yourself into that 1950s 1960s
Sam: sensibility of movies that do the the
Sam: pacing is slower and you know all of this kind
Sam: of stuff but that doesn't make it bad like these
Sam: slow burn movies that sort of gradually build
Sam: up over the space of you know the length of the movie this is 109 minutes i'm
Sam: looking you know can be good and it's it's done well here you know so uh good
Sam: movie okay i didn't even use my five minutes you know you didn't you.
Ivan: Still got a minute you still got a minute.
Sam: Left you got any comments on no comments on psycho okay no next a very different
Sam: kind of movie and by the way we're we're still in movies i watched like last
Sam: september or something okay we got.
Ivan: Some time to catch up.
Sam: Yeah guy this yeah september 22nd and 24th for these two movies very different
Sam: kind of movie from 1992 under siege with steven seagal.
Ivan: Oh shit you watch that movie now okay you know oh okay.
Sam: You have an interesting reaction here. Did you restart the five minutes?
Ivan: Yes, I did restart the five minutes. Well, the thing is, it has fucking Steven Seagal.
Ivan: That, you know, right now, as much as I remember that that movie was,
Ivan: to my mind in the past, a good movie, okay, that was my opinion.
Ivan: I can't get past the fact that it's fucking Steven Seagal, who is a complete
Ivan: and utter douchebag right now.
Sam: Yeah, I mean, I didn't think about that.
Sam: I didn't even look it up. I am sort of remembering that that's going on.
Ivan: Like, I mean, he got Russian citizenship, Sam.
Sam: Yeah, I'm looking. I'm looking.
Ivan: I mean, he was at a Putin parade like a couple of months ago.
Ivan: The guy is like a complete fucking Putin psychophant.
Ivan: and oh by the way all the stories that
Ivan: have come out about him being a fucking
Ivan: asshole to everybody on a set treating people like shit left and right overstating
Ivan: all his martial arts you know training which everybody then found out that it
Ivan: was all a fucking lie that people would come up and he would just lie about
Ivan: all his skills okay yeah this guy is an asshole,
Ivan: but the Putin part is he is a fucking
Ivan: Fucking absolute, as been for over a decade, a Russian psychophant.
Sam: Okay. Lovely. Lovely man. So, have you seen the movie, though?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: What did you think of the movie?
Ivan: I liked it.
Sam: I must admit, I liked it, too.
Ivan: It had, the plot was, you know,
Ivan: other than some gratuitous, like, stupid sex, you know, There was like some
Ivan: added, like, I don't know, the whole thing with the playmate coming onto the
Ivan: ship and the blah, blah, blah.
Sam: He jumped out of a cake or whatever.
Ivan: Cheesy, he's kind of cheesy. But it was par for the course at the time.
Ivan: I think the entire plot was actually pretty good about the whole damn thing. I mean, you know.
Sam: There was a lot that was like clear, and just for anybody who doesn't know,
Sam: action thriller film, 1992.
Sam: The fundamental thing is that there is a battleship and there is an attack on
Sam: the battleship where they sort of take over the ship.
Ivan: As it was on its way to being mothballed, basically.
Sam: Yeah, or whatever. It was like the final thing on it, blah, blah, blah. And they...
Ivan: They wanted to steal nuclear weapons.
Sam: They wanted to steal stuff. There was a whole thing. They wanted,
Sam: they had a nefarious plot that was going to do all kinds of horrible things.
Sam: This guy, Steven Seagal's character, was a cook.
Sam: And, but he was formally, before
Sam: he was a cook, he was like special forces and all this kind of stuff.
Sam: And he ends up in a scenario where they take over the entire ship,
Sam: except the damn kitchen.
Sam: And then it's a one-man operation where he has to rescue the day, you know, basically.
Ivan: Well, he did recruit a number of help.
Sam: Along the way, he recruits people. But, like, he starts out as— He started out
Sam: by himself. He started out by himself.
Ivan: Yeah, because what had happened was that he had basically done something that
Ivan: got him reprimanded, you know, significantly.
Ivan: You know, he had done some insubordination of a high level and it wound up with
Ivan: him basically that the only post after he's he like as punishment was that he
Ivan: could be only a yeoman or a cook. I remember the line specifically.
Ivan: And it was like, and that's how we wound up. We decided, well,
Ivan: instead of just being some shipmate that just like, you know,
Ivan: I don't know, carries lines and like just, you know, ties ties the boat up or
Ivan: something. I'd rather just cook.
Ivan: So he wound up being the cook on the ship.
Sam: Yeah so anyway very unrealistic of course but movies like this always are right
Sam: like you know if this scenario actually played out in real life this is not how it would he.
Ivan: Probably would have been like well it starts off with the fact that if he had
Ivan: been that bad probably he would have been you know forced out of.
Sam: Oh there's our five minutes yeah okay so what's.
Ivan: Your conclusion on the movie wait.
Sam: I give it a thumbs up it was a fine like again this was one of these We had.
Ivan: One minute left from the other one. So there you go. So you can.
Sam: Okay. This is, you know, it's, it's the kind of brainless action movie.
Sam: That's kind of fun to watch, but it's not like, it's not deep in any way, shape or form.
Sam: It's just, you know, the whatever action movie. I thought the premise was fun.
Sam: You know, it was, it was like, you know, okay.
Ivan: And they almost do Honolulu.
Sam: 103 minutes of like escapism. Yeah.
Ivan: They almost knew Conolulu, and it got stopped at the last minute.
Sam: Oh, spoilers, Yvonne. You just gave away the ending of the movie.
Ivan: The movie was from 1992, okay? 1992.
Ivan: Okay, people? I mean, give me a fucking break, okay?
Sam: And I'm sure no one could possibly have imagined that a movie like this ends
Sam: with the hero succeeding.
Ivan: Yeah! I mean, my God!
Sam: As opposed to...
Ivan: I mean, because of course, in all the Steven Seagal movies, he actually fails
Ivan: at the end! That's the one part that's very predictable about all of them.
Sam: The five-minute montage of people dying painfully in Honolulu after he's failed his mission.
Ivan: Yes! Yes, of course.
Sam: That's how movies like the nuclear holocaust.
Ivan: Yeah and that's it and then they they knew conolulu and the end.
Sam: Exactly that's how it is yes that's
Sam: how it ends okay let's take a break and then when we come back unless you have
Sam: other things yvonne i'm thinking i ran then the new york mayor then scotus okay
Sam: all right okay sounds good okay uh break time break time. We're going to start out with this one.
Break: AlexMZilla.com by Alex and Dad.
Break: Gaming videos and more from Alex. Elementary School by day. YouTube by night. AlexMZilla.com,
Break: AlexMZilla is A-L-E-X-M-X-E-L-A and .com is period F-M-C-O-M.
Sam: Okay, we are back.
Ivan: So we're back.
Sam: We obliterated Iran or something like that.
Ivan: We obliterated. Okay, listen, this
Ivan: is the wackiest entire sequence
Ivan: of events involving some kind of
Ivan: an attack on another country because
Ivan: okay so after we finished recording
Ivan: the podcast that we kept thinking that trump was
Ivan: going to not taco this yeah he was going to taco this thing all of a sudden
Ivan: we start getting news alerts that we we that you know we had set launched b2
Ivan: bombers they got there undetected they they dropped a ton that dropped a whole bunch of bombs.
Ivan: We can't be exactly sure what bombs they drop, but we think it's the Bunker Busters. Okay.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Most of them were on the big site on...
Sam: Frodo.
Ivan: Frodo. Frodo. Frodo.
Sam: Frodo. It's not Frodo.
Ivan: Frodo. Fredo. Okay, not Fredo. Okay. Okay.
Sam: And apparently we did do the thing where we dropped it into the AirVent Star Wars style.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Because there was the one vulnerability of the, you know, ventilation shaft.
Ivan: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, it's from the visuals that you can see.
Ivan: It's very difficult to assess what the damage is because these bombs are meant
Ivan: to burrow into the ground and explode underground.
Ivan: And so even from a satellite view, you can't really see what the hell happened underground.
Sam: And also there's a lot of question about like how deep were the actual facilities
Sam: versus how deep these bombs are supposed to go. So, you know,
Sam: although they do a strategy where they drop multiple.
Sam: So the first one will dig down a certain amount and then the second one will dig down more.
Ivan: Right, right.
Sam: Yeah. So unclear.
Ivan: Unclear.
Sam: Well, let me say this. Part of what came out is there was a leak of an initial
Sam: assessment that said that we didn't get them.
Sam: There was damage, but maybe not a lot.
Sam: they basically, hey, we might have set them back a few months,
Sam: but not like set them back years or completely eliminated the capabilities.
Sam: There are also reports that since, you know, Donald Trump was talking about like,
Sam: hey, evacuate Tehran and we might do this, we might not, we might do this,
Sam: we might not, for like a week before we did it,
Sam: that they'd actually taken some or all of the actual refined uranium that they
Sam: had there out and moved it to locations unknown.
Sam: And one thing to keep in mind,
Sam: The estimates of how much highly refined uranium that the Iranians had,
Sam: I've seen vary from 600 to 900 pounds.
Sam: Most estimates around 600, 900 pounds. That's not a lot.
Ivan: And the thing is— You can move that one truck.
Sam: Well, not just one truck, but also remember, like, size-wise,
Sam: I made a joke under Commissions Corner Slack of I'd hate to be the one, like,
Sam: military guy, low-level military guy who got the assignment of,
Sam: like, taking this out in his pants.
Sam: But, you know, look, that amount of uranium, uranium is very dense.
Ivan: Right, it's very heavy. That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: It would fit in three shoeboxes.
Ivan: So that's not a hell of a whole lot.
Sam: Volume-wise, this is not a lot. It would be easy to, you know,
Sam: three very heavy shoeboxes, you know.
Ivan: Well, so I'm saying you still need a truck because it's 900 pounds.
Ivan: You can't just put it in the truck and the car.
Sam: You split it up into a lot of smaller bits, right?
Ivan: Yeah, you got to, right, right, Zach. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: You know, so you could actually smuggle it out in your pants,
Sam: putting it in your pocket. You just, each person takes a small amount, you know?
Ivan: Yeah, a very small amount.
Sam: Of course, you probably don't want to be sticking highly radioactive uranium
Sam: in your pockets, but, you know, to each their own.
Ivan: Especially lead-lined pants.
Sam: Yeah, there you go. But anyway, so there's a question about all this.
Sam: The administration, of course, went nuts about the leaked preliminary report
Sam: and blah, blah, blah, and how bad that was.
Sam: And the CIA put out a report a few days later saying, no, no,
Sam: no, we did tons and tons of damage.
Ivan: Now, I will say that, look, the thing is, I think right now, very difficult to know.
Ivan: I mean, for us, I'm sure that there are certain people that know really what
Ivan: the damage is. Here's the thing.
Sam: Yeah, here's the thing. The Iranians themselves know we probably have some good
Sam: intelligence somewhere, but nobody involved in this entire picture,
Sam: and I put this in the Sam from the Future last week.
Sam: Nobody involved in this is a trusted narrator.
Sam: You cannot trust what's coming out of the Trump administration.
Sam: You cannot trust what's coming out of the Iranians until or unless we have a
Sam: neutral third party evaluation by like the IEA or whatever the acronym is or
Sam: whatever. We don't know, Jack.
Ivan: No, no, no. I don't know. It could be far more out of commission than the assessment.
Ivan: I mean, it could be not even because I'm saying I'm lying at that assessment.
Ivan: I think in part because, you know, it's very difficult to get that information
Ivan: when we're not, you know, it's not like we sent troops on the ground to go and
Ivan: dig in there and, you know, find out exactly, take pictures and tell me what
Ivan: exactly what the damage is.
Ivan: We got to be gathering intel probably from second or third sources.
Sam: And honestly, even if you don't, even if you do do that, you don't know for
Sam: sure if there's not another undetected facility that we didn't know about.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: You know?
Ivan: Right. Right. So, so, so yeah. So it's, it's a tough assessment.
Ivan: Okay. You know, no matter how you slice it.
Sam: But anyway, so we, we've had the, the, the sort of the people who,
Sam: when you listen to experts talking about this and, and again,
Sam: understanding the exact damage, who knows.
Sam: But the experts who talk about this say, like, even if the attack was massively
Sam: successful, you're still probably only putting them back a year or something
Sam: because they could rebuild from scratch if they needed to,
Sam: you know, and and that it would take some time, but not forever. Right.
Sam: But you've you. And meanwhile, you've got the administration has their talking points from Donald.
Sam: It's like you all have to say obliterate every time. That's just like, it's obliterate.
Ivan: Well, we had that amazing press conference the other day at 8 a.m.
Sam: Hegseth?
Ivan: Yeah, who gave a press conference basically to an audience of one.
Ivan: I mean, that was just all so he could, so Fox could put it on TV so Trump could
Ivan: see it at the White House so he could see that on Fox,
Ivan: what he wanted said was being said. That's it, right?
Sam: Yeah. And meanwhile, by the way, we did have an Iranian response,
Sam: which apparently, like Donald Trump's own description of this.
Ivan: Oh, fuck.
Sam: This is comedic. They called up and said.
Ivan: Hey, we're going to, hey, guys, yo. Okay, yeah, you know, yeah,
Ivan: you bombed us. Hey, listen.
Ivan: All right, look, we're going to bomb you at 8 o'clock, 8.30 tomorrow at this place.
Sam: They asked what time would be good.
Ivan: Oh, no, oh, wait, well, no, I forgot. Yes, what time would be good for us to bomb you?
Ivan: Oh, okay. What place?
Ivan: Oh, okay. Oh, great. Okay, well, all right, so it's a date. All right,
Ivan: we'll send the bombs at that time.
Ivan: Make sure to be ready, okay? Yeah. Okay, great. Bye.
Ivan: What the fuck is going on, Sam? The hell is this?
Sam: I think I think George Conway actually put this best, that it looks like both
Sam: what Donald Trump did and the Iranian response were both primarily performative.
Sam: Like it is all about like, OK, let's do the show of doing this. Like and again.
Ivan: It's the same thing that happened. Remember when when when when Trump went and
Ivan: like killed that that general?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: And then we had the attack on the military base by the Iranians.
Ivan: And then everything was like, you know, whatever. I'm just like, what?
Sam: Right. And look, the thing, again, and the attack on the nuclear facilities
Sam: may have done a lot of damage. Again, we don't know.
Sam: We just don't have a trusted source there. But even if it did,
Sam: it does not, quote unquote, end their nuclear program forever.
Ivan: Wait, wait, wait. But listen, here's the thing important about that program.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Almost all the information that we had leading up to that attack said that it
Ivan: seems that the Ayatollah and his, they didn't want to build a nuclear bomb.
Sam: Well, yes.
Ivan: Everything's indicated that they
Ivan: weren't really trying to build a fucking nuclear bomb in the first place.
Sam: Well, here's the, yes, but I think this comes down to the key difference between,
Sam: you know, we talked last week about the intelligence saying exactly what you
Sam: just said versus the rhetoric about they could have a bomb in two weeks.
Sam: And I think the actual reality From,
Sam: again, when you listen to expert experts Is the actual time frame If they decided
Sam: they wanted a bomb Would have been six months to a year Like if they made the
Sam: decision And I think that the key is that,
Sam: On the one hand, you have people saying, look, there's no evidence they're actually building a bomb.
Sam: They've actually got mandates saying they're not going to from their religious leader.
Sam: And so this isn't an urgent situation. And the other side saying,
Sam: we don't care about whether or not they've made that final decision.
Sam: We want to make sure that if they decide that, they can't actually do it at
Sam: that point in any sort of reasonable time frame, that we couldn't stop them.
Sam: Because we don't want to be in a situation where, okay, they've not built a
Sam: bomb, they haven't decided to build a bomb, but suddenly one Wednesday,
Sam: you know, the Ayatollah wakes up and says, okay, now I want a bomb,
Sam: and they have it two weeks later.
Sam: You know, they want to prevent that scenario. And people have pointed out,
Sam: by the way, if you want countries that are in that scenario,
Sam: like Japan's probably in that scenario.
Sam: Basically, any country with a large-scale civilian nuclear power capability,
Sam: if they decided to, okay, we need bombs, they could do that fairly quickly.
Ivan: No, and that's true, but the one thing is that even though those bombs,
Ivan: I mean, they're kind of like, look,
Ivan: uranium bombs are like very basic nuclear bombs in the grand scheme of things.
Ivan: They're not, they're, they're.
Sam: They're, we have much better bombs now that could have like a thousand times
Sam: the destructive capability.
Sam: But having said that, I mean, even Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not,
Sam: nothing to be sneezed at.
Ivan: No, no, no. True, true. But the thing is, is the size, it's the delivery of the bomb.
Ivan: It's, you know, all of these things, you know, right? It's not a very sophisticated
Ivan: bomb. It's not one that...
Sam: Let me get back to my point, because we've gotten far afield.
Sam: My point was simply that it looks like from both the American and Iranian sides in this...
Ivan: We're just trying to do a firework show using the military.
Sam: Now, look, I do.
Ivan: Between the U.S. and Iran.
Sam: Do I think Donald Trump actually wanted to obliterate the Iranian nuclear program?
Sam: Yes. And he was probably told that this would do it. But I think in the end,
Sam: it doesn't matter because what matters is the show.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. Number one is the show.
Ivan: And then he could say it was a blitz. But that's the one thing.
Ivan: Sam, listen, Sam, come on, man.
Ivan: Since when does Trump need facts? Look, here's what he needed. He needed a show.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: And let's face it, sending a squad of B2, what is more showing?
Ivan: That sending an entire fucking squadron of fucking B2 bombers undetected,
Ivan: you know, all the way over there and back, okay, and dropping Bunker Buster
Ivan: bombs, and then whatever the fuck really happened,
Ivan: hey, you just say whatever the hell you want to happen from it anyway, right?
Ivan: I mean, it's about the biggest spectacle you can do.
Sam: Now, here's a couple things in terms of what has gone on since then as well.
Sam: First of all, you get the show.
Sam: He was feeling shown up by the Israelis, and so this helps do that.
Sam: But Donald Trump doesn't want this hanging on.
Sam: He doesn't he he does not want the big war with Iran.
Sam: You know, like people were saying, oh, look, anti-war Donald just did some bombing.
Sam: But he very much wanted this to be a one and done.
Sam: So immediately afterwards, he signaled it was a one and done.
Sam: He then like did that whole back and forth with the Iranians,
Sam: say, you know, to make sure that their retaliation caused no real damage.
Sam: And then he announces a peace deal.
Sam: He announces that, you know, there's a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Sam: And let's just, everybody's done what they need to do. Let's call this a...
Ivan: Okay, I haven't checked. Well, I haven't heard anything else.
Ivan: Did the Israelis and Iranians stop shooting at each other?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: The peace deal is holding. There was one thing, and this is where Donald Trump
Sam: ended up saying they don't know what the fuck they're doing,
Sam: where after the time set for the peace deal, Iran sent one more missile.
Sam: And that missile got intercepted, but then the Israelis retaliated for that
Sam: one missile with another barrage on Iran.
Sam: And Donald Trump was really upset because they'd both broken the ceasefire.
Sam: he was mad at Israel because he's like look they shot one missile it might not
Sam: even have been on purpose and you intercepted it it did nothing why did you
Sam: even bother retaliating so he was mad at both of them he yelled at both of them
Sam: he said they don't know what the fuck they're doing but since then,
Sam: the ceasefire's held they both look,
Sam: and well.
Ivan: I mean BB got what he wanted.
Sam: BB got what he wanted absolutely now I mean still no ceasefire Gaza,
Sam: by the way, that's still going on.
Sam: Different story.
Ivan: Like Trump gives a shit about that. Yeah. I mean, actually, he believes already
Ivan: he should be getting the Nobel Peace Prize, right?
Ivan: I mean, he's going over, what is it, Copenhagen, right? Where they get the nobles?
Sam: He has lined up. He and his people have been stating that he should get a Nobel
Sam: Peace Prize for the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Rwanda coming together
Sam: that he's apparently working on.
Sam: although when somebody asked him about details he had no
Sam: idea what was going on there but but apparently they
Sam: are working on something there and it's his usual it's
Sam: his usual thing where he's trying to Oslo I
Sam: guess he's trying to buy them off just like he did with the Abraham Accords
Sam: in the in the Middle East he wants a he wants a peace prize for that as well
Sam: by the way and he wants a peace prize for India and Pakistan and he's is is
Sam: he's been nominated by Pakistan Yeah,
Sam: well, and he was nominated for a couple—remember, anybody can nominate for the
Sam: Nobel Peace Prize and— I know.
Ivan: I know, I know.
Sam: But, yeah, he's been nominated for a few of these at this point.
Sam: I don't think he's going to get one right now, but, you know,
Sam: look, here's the thing, though.
Sam: You know, his little peace thing—I mean, it's been holding so far between Iran and Israel.
Sam: It's been less than a week, but, you know, it's been holding.
Sam: Who knows what's happening with the Congo and Rwanda?
Sam: I have not read very much about this, but it seems to be the bottom line is
Sam: he's offering both sides a whole lot of investment from people that he will
Sam: make money off of in order to come into their countries and flood them with
Sam: money in exchange for them to stop shooting at each other.
Ivan: Trump phones. They're going to make the Trump phones over there.
Sam: No, it's it's it's mining rights and things like that.
Sam: But yes, not Trump phones, mining rights, real estate, whatever,
Sam: you know, the usual kinds of thing or resorts.
Ivan: Casino, golf courses. But honestly, because that is, you know,
Ivan: I mean, casinos and golf courses are really the crux of our economy. You do realize that.
Sam: But look, here's the thing. If he can actually, like, go to one of these places
Sam: and flood it with money and get them to stop shooting each other,
Sam: I guess I have to reluctantly say, okay, like, fine.
Sam: But anyway, no, he's rooting for his Nobel Peace Prize.
Sam: But, you know, in the end, if this does end up completely performative,
Sam: like sort of everybody does a couple shots at each other and then a week later it's done.
Sam: He's calling the Israel-Iran thing the 12-day war. and then I,
Sam: he won. I mean, he got exactly what he wanted out of it. It looks good for him in the end.
Sam: And, you know, we, we, and all the people, once again, all the people talking
Sam: about the worst case scenario end up looking like, oh, you're a bunch of fools. None of that happened.
Sam: It was fine. He, he, he hit the place in Iran. He wanted to,
Sam: he had some good results. He obliterated it.
Sam: And now we, now two weeks later, we've moved on and we're talking about other things.
Ivan: You know, this is the thing about, I hate about people playing Russian roulette, okay?
Ivan: You know, just because, you know, you hit a fucking empty chamber,
Ivan: okay, this time, it doesn't mean it was a reasonable thing to do!
Sam: It was fine, Yvonne. It was just fine.
Ivan: Yeah, it's fine. Keep playing Russian roulette with this shit,
Ivan: you know, oh, yeah, the chamber was empty. You see? There's nothing to worry about.
Sam: Well, and this is, I mean, we're seeing this over and over and over again where
Sam: Donald Trump does the very risky thing and he either tacos or he gets lucky.
Ivan: Speaking of risky things, which wasn't on the agenda, but since you're talking
Ivan: about risky things, okay, look, everybody keeps talking about how,
Ivan: well, oh, yeah, well, you see, the economy hasn't crashed, right?
Ivan: Listen, every fucking sign right now is pointing to a seriously deteriorating economy, Sam.
Ivan: And it's just, you know, oh, he hasn't crashed. You see, he hasn't crashed it yet.
Ivan: I mean, the inflation, he keeps insisting on the Fed-loving rates.
Ivan: Inflation is showing higher.
Ivan: New college graduates are finding the worst job market they have ever found.
Ivan: Housing sales are slowed into the crapper.
Ivan: I mean, every, you know, by the way, the revision on Q1 GDP came in and it showed
Ivan: that it was even slower than originally thought.
Sam: It was negative, right?
Ivan: Yeah, it was negative in the first one, but the horizon more negative,
Ivan: okay? I mean, I, and I'm like.
Sam: You know, when do we get the Q2 number? When do we know if we've got the two
Sam: quarters in a row of decline?
Ivan: Well, soon. Quarter ends now. It's soon. It's in a few weeks.
Sam: A few weeks. Yeah.
Ivan: Like, yeah.
Sam: Yeah. I wasn't sure what the delay was on the June numbers. Like we got sometime in July.
Ivan: Yeah. It's sometime in July. It's like mid July.
Sam: So what's your bet? Two negative quarters in a row or no?
Ivan: I think that the answer is going to be yes, because there's been quite a lot of layoffs and things.
Ivan: And, you know, this economy is not firing an all cylinder, Sam.
Ivan: You know, all these immigration raids are causing problems to farmers,
Ivan: problems in a whole bunch of industries,
Ivan: construction, all over the place.
Ivan: You know, this is, you know, this is not, this is all bad.
Ivan: It's all bad right now. And the thing is, it's like everything.
Ivan: It's not happening at the snap of a finger right now.
Ivan: A lot of what we're seeing is a lot of stagflation.
Ivan: OK, and so, you know, they're all saying, hey, right now, you know,
Ivan: I haven't seen the prices go up.
Ivan: Just listen, just wait.
Ivan: You know, anybody is going to shop for toys this Christmas.
Ivan: What we got in tariffs right now is going to be in for one hell of a surprise.
Sam: So, there was a specific report on toy prices in, I don't know,
Sam: the New York Times or somewhere the other day.
Sam: And it's saying, oh, toys are starting to really go up, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And then you read the article and it was only like 2% or something on average.
Sam: Now, there's some things like they're going up more, some less.
Sam: But, and I was like, oh, 2%, that's not that high yet.
Sam: Like, because what we've been hearing is things like, things are going to double.
Sam: We're not seeing that.
Ivan: But here's the thing. Right. But, you know, look, like this is,
Ivan: man, this is a repeat of 2020 with inflation.
Sam: Okay?
Ivan: Where we had the shortages and whatever and the prices didn't spike immediately.
Ivan: Then six to 12 months later, everything started shooting up. It's not immediate.
Ivan: This is, you know, people are the worst at what shit that has delayed effects.
Sam: But just to be fair, though, like just a couple of months ago on this show,
Sam: we kept talking about when are we going to actually start seeing the effects of this?
Ivan: And I said, wait till July. We're not July yet. OK, listen.
Sam: I remember early conversations where you gave earlier dates. They've moved back.
Ivan: No, no, no, no. Go back and look. I said that you're going to start seeing the
Ivan: effects trending into July. And the reason I said that was because of the huge
Ivan: inventory buildup that happened prior to that, okay?
Ivan: Because, well, we also had, remember, we also had the delay on a whole bunch of them as well.
Sam: This is what I was going to say. It's like we talked a number of times very
Sam: early on about potential effects hitting as early as like March or whatever.
Sam: But what's happened, and this is where the taco comes in, right?
Ivan: Right.
Sam: We, things keep getting pushed back, delayed, lowered, whatever.
Sam: So at one point we were talking about the, you know, okay, the,
Sam: the, the, the tariffs on China that would be like, I don't know,
Sam: 8,000% or whatever the high number was 150, whatever they, and they were lowered.
Sam: after one of the back and forths. There have been multiple delays where there's
Sam: going to be this big high tariff as of this, oh, 60-day delay,
Sam: 90-day delay, 30-day delay, whatever.
Sam: And then by the time we get almost to the point where it's going to hit again,
Sam: oh, guess what? It's delayed again or it's modified again.
Sam: And so a lot of things that were going to be 30, 40, 50, 80,
Sam: 100 percent are the actual tariffs that have really been in place have been
Sam: much lower, like 10%, 20%.
Ivan: Yeah, right. We're at the baseline of the 10.
Sam: And this is the kind of thing, by the way, where lots of folks have said,
Sam: you know, the 10% to 20% tariffs, things in those ranges,
Sam: a lot of businesses can absorb some of that in their profit margin.
Sam: And a lot of people don't, the 10% difference is harder to notice.
Sam: And the question is, when or if do the really big ones actually hit that,
Sam: you know, that people will notice right away.
Ivan: Listen, right now we are getting close to the.
Sam: Even by the way, the 10, 20% people will eventually notice and,
Sam: oh shit, this is more expensive.
Ivan: But here's the one thing.
Sam: Remember, again, inventories, inventories.
Ivan: Inventories, price protection, inventories. Companies are kind of like gambling.
Ivan: Listen, a lot of companies right now have been gambling a little bit on, oh, the taco thing.
Ivan: OK, so at first, remember, a lot of companies went and said,
Ivan: no, we're going to hold prices until so and so forth.
Ivan: New model year for vehicles is coming up pretty soon.
Ivan: OK, a lot of the deadlines are coming up like right now.
Ivan: OK, so so you're going to have it's just because he keeps negotiating.
Ivan: But if not, listen, right now, we are not close to any deals with anybody,
Ivan: any real deals, okay, at all.
Ivan: So, and the other effect that you're seeing is that in the economy,
Ivan: this is where it starts really, people are not hiring.
Ivan: They're not spending. They're not investing.
Ivan: This gets, you know.
Ivan: This starts translating into it. And by the way, the labor shortages, Sam.
Ivan: What happened the last time we had labor shortages?
Ivan: What was the thing that happened relatively quickly?
Sam: You mean you're talking to employers?
Ivan: They started desperately paying people more.
Sam: Yeah, and you're talking more in pandemic during that period.
Ivan: Yeah. Listen, at some point, that's going to start translating into stuff.
Ivan: It's just, it's kind of hard to predict.
Ivan: It's something that, because the supply, because things don't happen like in
Ivan: some kind of like a linear pattern. It's kind of like, it's like kind of pushing on a string.
Ivan: Okay. As these things happen. Okay. So the effect exactly, hey,
Ivan: you know, you do this over here and it has to translate through so many channels.
Ivan: When exactly do you see it at the other end?
Ivan: Predicting that exact timeline is, is, is, is hard. But listen,
Ivan: you've already done all those shocks over here.
Ivan: It's reverberating through the damn supply chain.
Ivan: At some point, as, you know, the other day, Ford went and said,
Ivan: hey, we just had to shut down a factory for several factories for three weeks
Ivan: because we can't get magnets.
Ivan: Okay? Hey, you've got farmers continually saying, hey, we can't pick fields.
Ivan: We don't have people. Okay?
Ivan: These are the fucking waves in the middle. Those don't translate immediately to the field.
Ivan: But this shit keeps piling up. And more and more and more of it.
Ivan: Listen, I can't tell you exactly when, but I can tell you it will happen.
Ivan: It's just a question of when, but it's tough to tell you exactly when it gets through it.
Sam: And also, like, it's hard to say how, just how bad, especially with a lot of
Sam: these numbers fluctuating and policies changing all the time.
Sam: Like, are we going to have, you know, is inflation going to spike to 5% or is
Sam: it going to spike to 30%? Exactly.
Sam: And there's a big difference in how those would be experienced by the general public.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: You know.
Ivan: Listen, we've already seen that people, 10% inflation, might as well be 100% in the U.S.
Sam: Well, because, I mean, eggs. That's why Harris lost, right? Right. Eggs.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Which, by the way, have not gone back down. At least not in a lasting way.
Ivan: So wait, so he didn't, I thought, they would go down on day one. Wasn't that the thing?
Sam: Eggs. Yes, yes. Yeah.
Ivan: So no, no, no, he didn't get the price of eggs down on day one.
Sam: You know, Donald Trump could solve the egg problem with, you know,
Sam: a WKRP-style helicopter drop.
Ivan: Oh, yeah, that would be. Anyway. All right. So moving on.
Sam: Or an egg's out of the helicopter. Give it to the masses.
Ivan: It's like I inserted a subject in the middle. Okay, moving on.
Ivan: What are we going to talk about now?
Sam: Yeah, we were supposed to be talking about Iran. Did we finish Iran?
Ivan: Yeah, we finished Iran. Okay, we ran it out of town.
Sam: Then let's take a break.
Sam: And then we will come back and talk about the New York City mayor and all of
Sam: the implications because, you know,
Sam: Some people are very happy. Some people are freaking out. Let's,
Sam: let's, we'll, we'll talk about all that.
Sam: Here we go.
Break: Okie dokie. Here it comes.
Break: It's just my internet being stupid. My internet being stupid is a new song we will make.
Break: more than you believe it oh oh,
Break: oh oh oh oh oh oh oh Come on,
Break: come on, come on, come on, come on.
Break: I'm tired. What's wrong? I'm really tired.
Break: It's amazing to get the show on the road. There's a road? There's a road?
Break: Oh my God, there's a road.
Sam: Okay, we're back.
Ivan: We are back. So what do we got now? The New York City mayor.
Sam: Yeah, now we have not talked about this at all on the show, and it's barely
Sam: even showed up on the first time.
Ivan: So communism, Sam, well, here's one thing. I had seen that a lot of the polls
Ivan: showed Osio. I mean, Cuomo.
Ivan: I'm sorry. Get that name confused.
Ivan: Anybody that read the book Primary Colors understands why they call him Osio.
Sam: That was about his father.
Ivan: It wasn't even him.
Ivan: Well, Cuomo was in the lead, but, you know, polling for these is kind of like,
Ivan: especially with the ranked choice. Well, it was, you know.
Sam: Here's what people expected.
Ivan: People expected to go into a second round.
Sam: Well, here's what people expected, even with the ranked choice,
Sam: was that Cuomo would lead in the first round.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: And then once you added up all the ranked choice, it would be really close between Cuomo and Mamdani.
Sam: Now, that had changed over the last few weeks.
Sam: If you had looked two to three weeks ago, everybody was sure this was just Cuomo. Done.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Cuomo would win.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Mamdani, over the last few weeks, closed the gap to the point where people thought
Sam: he would lose the first round. but after ranked choice it could go either way.
Ivan: So he got some key endorsements. AOC came out for him. Bernie came out for him.
Ivan: You know. And lo and behold, Sam, he won!
Sam: He won. Now, he has not officially won yet because they haven't done the ranked
Sam: choice calculations but he had enough of a lead and enough of sort of cross
Sam: endorsements from people at third place and below that he, everyone expects that he's.
Ivan: Cuomo conceded.
Sam: Yes. Cuomo conceded the primary, but has not yet ruled out running as an independent in the general.
Ivan: I mean.
Sam: And Adams is running as an independent in the general.
Ivan: You know, I listen.
Sam: And of course, there's a Republican.
Ivan: This is, by the way, when, when people tell me about we're going to,
Ivan: we want to do something to get rid of certain people in the Democratic leadership.
Ivan: This is the kind of people I do, I agree, we need to get out of the fucking
Ivan: Democratic leadership, okay?
Sam: Like Cuomo.
Ivan: Like Cuomo. Cuomo.
Sam: Listen, listen, fuck a Cuomo.
Ivan: Okay? Listen, Cuomo, the Cuomos need to be gone, okay?
Ivan: The Schumers, the Cuomos, you know, those people need to be gone.
Sam: This is the thing that was extremely disappointing to me about this,
Sam: looking at the New York race, is not just Cuomo himself, but all the endorsement
Sam: Cuomo had from the Democratic establishment.
Ivan: Listen, I'm sorry. Fucking Cuomo.
Sam: There was a reason he quit for being governor.
Ivan: The guy is a fucking scumbag. I don't care if he has the positions I have.
Ivan: Now, look, if you're telling me that we're running fucking Cuomo versus Trump,
Ivan: would I hold my nose and vote for Cuomo? Yeah.
Ivan: shit, man. This guy is shit. It's just he's less shit than the other guy.
Ivan: It's the only reason I would wind up voting for him, but I don't want him.
Sam: The only acceptable response from the quote-unquote Democratic establishment
Sam: to Cuomo even trying to run is that they.
Ivan: Should have just said, fuck you, get out.
Sam: Yeah. I mean, there should have been endorsements.
Ivan: There shouldn't.
Sam: Have been money you.
Ivan: Know what we had what's his name up in minnesota franken
Ivan: franken franken fucking i
Ivan: mean jesus christ what the fuck what the hell did we make franken resign for
Ivan: over what what over some pictures that were like kind of suggestive because
Ivan: everybody around there actually said no he wasn't like that it's just the pictures
Ivan: kind of like made it look bad and i'm like i got But this motherfucker who,
Ivan: on the record, there is a series of serious accusations against this bastard.
Ivan: And then we've got people all endorsing him. I do think that there is a number
Ivan: of them that I've seen that flipped already and have already endorsed.
Ivan: I can't pronounce his last name.
Sam: Momdani.
Ivan: Momdani. I've got to pronounce it. That have already flipped and have endorsed Momdani after he won.
Ivan: Okay. Or, you know, Elise is projected to win. at this point that I've already done that, okay?
Ivan: And, you know, they need to get with the program, but it's just,
Ivan: we can't be running these assholes. We can't be running Cuomo's.
Sam: Well, even afterwards, you mentioned there are some people that have flipped.
Sam: There are some people hedging their bets who have congratulated him but not endorsed him.
Sam: And it's like, come on, people.
Ivan: I mean, the voters have loudly told you, okay?
Ivan: we don't want more fucking cuomos end the story and and you know what and and
Ivan: what what this guy is bringing to the table,
Ivan: I don't, you know, he keeps being said that, you know, he's some kind of fucking communist.
Ivan: He's bringing to the table the energy and the kind of stuff that we need right now.
Sam: We have talked before about energy and fight and just being, getting it.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And Mom Donnie does those things.
Ivan: All those things.
Sam: Like he's charismatic. He's, yes, he's young.
Sam: and he is unapologetic about his views.
Sam: Now, you know, people have, you know, oh, he's way to the left.
Sam: He's talking about, like, government-run grocery stores.
Sam: He's talking about free buses. He's crazy. He's, he's...
Ivan: Mike, I'm sorry. Here's my problem with people.
Ivan: Would they think that, for example, free buses are some kind of fucking,
Ivan: you know, like fidel castro kind of program i mean what what the fuck i'm sorry
Ivan: you know what i actually i thought about it like he's totally right why the
Ivan: fuck aren't the buses free the only people that take the fucking buses are the
Ivan: poorest that we have out there,
Ivan: You know, I know towns that have free trolleys and shit and whatever,
Ivan: whatnot for people to move around town. Okay?
Ivan: Why the fuck shouldn't the goddamn buses be free?
Ivan: We're charging the people that can least afford that and that are the ones that
Ivan: use the damn service the most.
Sam: Just to be clear, in a city like New York City, buses and subways are used by
Sam: lots of people who aren't just the bottom line.
Ivan: No, subways more. Buses not as much. Okay?
Ivan: And it's very important to make that distinction because the subway is far more,
Ivan: you know, across the economic spectrum, but not as much the buses.
Ivan: OK, if you go to almost any city, the buses are usually, you know,
Ivan: because some guy that, you know, you see like people go into the train station. Right.
Ivan: And they drive their car to take a transit to take, you know,
Ivan: the top metro, but, you know, on railways, pass, whatever those right. They go in a car.
Ivan: Then you've got the people that need to take the bus to get to the damn station. Okay.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Those people are far lower in the economic strata. So you know what?
Ivan: They should be getting a damn bus for free.
Sam: Well, and there was an interesting thing where I think it was,
Sam: was it Bill Kristol, famous conservative?
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Who like made a comment on one of the social medias this time around saying,
Sam: actually, you know, So free buses might be okay.
Ivan: Yes. What the hell?
Sam: Because he's like, it's a common good. It's positive externalities.
Sam: It might actually make sense to use taxes for this instead of user fees.
Ivan: Sam, I cannot come up with a good fucking reason.
Ivan: Why the hell we need to charge for the fucking buses?
Ivan: Can you?
Sam: Well, the counter-argument would, of course, you would have to raise taxes to
Sam: cover it a different way.
Ivan: Oh, by how much, Sam? Come on. Give me a fucking break.
Sam: Yeah, anyway, like, the point is, my point is, even if, like,
Sam: if you actually look at the policies he's proposing, none of them are actually all that crazy.
Ivan: No! None of them! But listen, this whole thing is, Sam, the whole thing about,
Ivan: first, to start off with this, I do think that, African-Americans in New York
Ivan: City voted more for Cuomo than from than for him.
Ivan: But I do think that in part that is because African-Americans and I and I understand
Ivan: why they they tend to vote more for the Democratic establishment more than others
Ivan: because they've gotten burned so many times by other fucking people.
Ivan: OK, so they are loathe to vote against the people that for the most part have delivered for them.
Ivan: okay and i get that and i
Ivan: get that concern okay given that in our
Ivan: country probably the class that has gotten the shittiest deal
Ivan: over our history has
Ivan: been them okay you know i i
Ivan: i get it so you don't what why do you want to vote against
Ivan: the guys that have consistently delivered for you even if it's fucking cuomo
Ivan: okay all right so i get that so that's one group that i understand I also think
Ivan: that some people like Bloomberg probably in their head are more like thinking of, ah,
Ivan: general election, electability.
Sam: Well, look.
Ivan: You know, the kind of like.
Sam: Here's the thing. Here's the thing.
Ivan: That bullshit. You know what I'm saying?
Sam: Yeah, I know completely. And this ties exactly to what we've been saying and
Sam: why Zamdani is a breath of fresh air again here.
Ivan: Zamdani? Zamdani?
Sam: Did i did i mangle it mom mom donnie what are you doing.
Ivan: To the poor guy.
Sam: I like the guy i got to.
Ivan: Pronounce his name i i like this guy i really like this guy by the way.
Sam: I gotta find this stupid clip from his debate
Sam: and i'll maybe when we take the next break
Sam: i'll i'll like find the clip of of when
Sam: he spells his name and stuff but anyway people have
Sam: like done like remixes into music and
Sam: all this kind of stuff of mispronunciations of his
Sam: name yeah it's it's a clip from the debate where he starts out
Sam: slamming cuomo about like all the things that
Sam: cuomo has done that you know that are
Sam: bad and and then he and because cuomo was
Sam: also routinely mispronouncing his name and so he ends the whole things by saying
Sam: by the way it's donnie m-a-m-d-a-n-i you should learn how to pronounce it anyway i love.
Ivan: That you see i love that energy fuck you know yeah.
Sam: Here's the thing with all of those positions whether you agree with them or
Sam: not he doesn't apologize for them he owns his position and he defends them like
Sam: and one of the things that and i mentioned this last week and the week before
Sam: and probably more often,
Sam: there was a brief moment where it looked like the Democrats had learned their
Sam: lesson and would actually stand up and defend their positions.
Sam: But then they started retreating again from all kinds of things.
Ivan: Yep. Yep. This has been happening in recent time. Yes.
Sam: You have them running from defending You had like.
Ivan: You had fucking like Newsom for a couple of months like, you know,
Ivan: trying to ingratiate himself with like fucking like right-wing lunatic and stuff
Ivan: or whatever, bringing him on the podcast or whatever right now.
Ivan: I did more than once, like, you know, and he has completely done a 180 on that.
Ivan: I give him credit because he's completely done a 180 on that.
Sam: The thing is, like, Mom Donnie, like, in New York City with lots of Jewish people,
Sam: was asked about whether he believed Israel should exist as a Jewish state. And his answer was,
Sam: I believe Israel should exist as a state with equal rights for everyone.
Sam: I don't believe in states based on ethnicity or religion. I don't think that should be a thing.
Sam: And he said it outright and defended that position.
Sam: He didn't run from it.
Sam: He's being accused of being a socialist for the buses and the grocery stores and all this other.
Sam: He embraces the positions and goes for them. Whereas you've got like all kinds
Sam: of Democrats like running from the trans issue, running from the immigration
Sam: issue, running from all kinds of issues where where they are.
Ivan: Like I said, it's like this whole thing about instead of like explaining,
Ivan: oh, well, you're pro abortion. No, I'm not pro abortion. I'm by choice.
Ivan: Then they go like, well, we need to consider the, you know, the religion.
Ivan: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, asshole.
Ivan: No, stop fucking like apologizing for being pro choice. Stop fucking apologizing
Ivan: for being pro-human rights.
Sam: Yes. For a while, they were running from guns, too.
Sam: Like, no, just don't. You know, and this is the thing that one of the reasons everybody,
Sam: and I hate sounding like a 2016 Bernie Sanders supporter,
Sam: But one of the things that the Democratic establishment is like pissing their
Sam: entire base off is because they're trying to do this triangulation.
Sam: They're trying to. They're being so afraid of alienating the median voter.
Sam: They're they want to like they're all focused on how do we get back the Trump voters. Yeah.
Sam: And so we have to moderate and we have to be more conservative and we have to
Sam: run away from all the liberal views, let alone progressive or socialist views.
Sam: And in the process, they make themselves seem like weasels who don't actually believe in anything.
Sam: They're doing polls and trying to modify their positions to match the polls
Sam: and all that. No, you want to lead and you want to lead with a bold vision.
Sam: And I mean, look, fucking Donald Trump, you know,
Sam: like it's, it, I hate the stuff that he is one on, but the thing is he,
Sam: he will unapologetically come
Sam: out there and say the Mexicans are fucking rapists and, and, and people,
Sam: even when, you know, he lies constantly, but people view him as authentic and
Sam: they resonate with that.
Sam: And Mandani, the same thing. Like he's, he's just.
Ivan: Well, he's not doing the lying part.
Sam: No, no, no. But the same thing.
Ivan: No, but not about, not apologizing.
Sam: Not apologizing for his views. I have this view. I have this position and I will defend it.
Sam: I'm not going to go in there and, oh no, some donor said that this made them
Sam: uncomfortable. So I'm going to change my position or I'm going to hide it or
Sam: I'm going to do whatever or, oh, no, there was an attack ad.
Sam: No, own it. Run with it.
Sam: Defend it. Say. And again, like maybe some of his position, I mean,
Sam: so far I haven't heard anything actually too unreasonable from this guy.
Sam: But let's say some of his positions are too far left for me.
Sam: He is still, I still will respect him because of this, because he will come through and because,
Sam: and also just from a other stylistic point of view, he's interacting directly
Sam: with the people he's doing, he's doing social media well.
Sam: He's, he's, you know, walking up and down, you know, Manhattan,
Sam: like saying hi to people on the street and stuff.
Sam: And, you know, doing all of that. He, I mean, it all comes back to, he's not hiding.
Sam: He's not like everybody on the democratic side. No, I shouldn't say everybody.
Sam: big chunk of the leadership on the democratic side. And like some of this,
Sam: I know Yvonne gets testy when people say this, some of it does correspond to age, but not entirely.
Ivan: Not entirely.
Sam: Like the key, you know, I'd say there is a tendency for the people who've been
Sam: there for 30, 40 years to be less in touch with the, than the newer people, but it's not universal.
Sam: There's some older folks that get it. There's some younger folks who don't.
Ivan: But like, there's a whole bunch younger folks that don't. Look at fucking Steve
Ivan: Miller, for God's sakes.
Sam: Yes, yes.
Ivan: The fuck, you know, look at all these fucking people, like, you know.
Sam: No, but my point is, though, like, this whole tendency in a lot of the Democratic
Sam: leadership to be so shell-shocked, and even more so after they lost this last election.
Sam: They're all, like, in a defensive of Crouch again and not willing to actually
Sam: be bold about fucking anything.
Ivan: There is one thing about all of this. But there is one thing about this.
Ivan: It's only been a few months. As much as we want to make it, oh my god,
Ivan: whatever, in real terms, it's only been a few months.
Ivan: And I think that what needs to happen and what
Ivan: is starting to happen is guys like him
Ivan: okay start getting support okay
Ivan: guys like newsom start fighting
Ivan: the people like aoc keep the
Ivan: fucking pressure like bernie all these people get out of this fucking like ridiculous
Ivan: position of trying to and and no and go out and tell these people to go fuck
Ivan: themselves okay literally this is what starts happening. But I do think that the voters...
Ivan: The significant thing about New York is to show you, hey,
Ivan: stop being a fucking chicken and go out and fucking fight instead of trying
Ivan: to ingratiate yourselves with these ridiculous positions and people, period.
Sam: And look, there's some people saying that, look, hey, this may work in New York,
Sam: but it's not going to work in the rest of the country.
Ivan: Bullshit.
Sam: And look, there are two things here. One, you know, calling yourself a democratic
Sam: socialist and pushing for government-run grocery stores might not work in,
Sam: you know, purple parts of the country. No.
Sam: Maybe it would, honestly, but maybe not. But the thing that matters,
Sam: and this is another democratic wonk thing, they all get back to like,
Sam: well, this policy, that policy, this policy, that.
Sam: The important thing here is attitude.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: You know, now, of course, I don't
Sam: want somebody with a great attitude with policies I absolutely despise.
Sam: But you need someone with the right attitude coming into this.
Sam: And Mamdani shows that. And the folks we have in leadership are, like, paralyzed.
Sam: And maybe you're right. Give them a little time. They'll snap out of it.
Sam: But I feel like you need to have the Mamdani's of the world actually win.
Sam: And like, he's still got a general election.
Sam: He may, I think he's got a good shot, but you know, who knows what will happen in November.
Ivan: I mean, let me, can I be honest? Eric Adams way overestimates his popularity.
Sam: Oh, I think so.
Ivan: I mean, and Cuomo is going to find that his popularity right now after people realize that Thank you.
Ivan: How do I say his name again?
Sam: Mamdani.
Ivan: Mamdani?
Sam: Mamdani.
Ivan: Mamdani. I promise to get it right in the future.
Ivan: After Mamdani's real polls and numbers and support comes clear,
Ivan: Cuomo is going to collapse very quick. That's my feel.
Sam: I, I, I know he, from what I understand, he's waiting until he sees,
Sam: does he close the gap a little bit after the rank choice calculation happens?
Sam: And if he makes it closer, he may do the run as an independent thing.
Sam: I hope he doesn't. But here, but here's the thing too, that you've seen so much panic,
Sam: like there are lots of democratic establishment folks who have been like,
Sam: mom, Donnie is going to hurt the Democrats overall.
Sam: This is the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Democrats.
Sam: You've got like wall street types, like expressing panic over,
Sam: oh my God, the socialist one, you know, they need to get the fuck over that.
Sam: And I think, you know, you've got a lot of these establishment folks who just
Sam: fundamentally are stuck in, we're going to do it the way we've always done it.
Sam: And part of this is you have to be next in line and you have to wait your turn and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And so, you know, of course, the person who's been there 30 years is going to
Sam: do stuff and be the one in charge.
Sam: There has to be a pragmatic, what works, what doesn't, what excites people.
Sam: I've seen people criticize. They're commissioning all sorts of studies and stuff
Sam: to try to figure out why Democrats lost young male votes and why the base wasn't excited and blah,
Sam: blah, blah, blah, blah. Just take a look.
Sam: Take a look at what's actually working here.
Ivan: Um
Sam: Yeah this isn't something you need to spend millions of dollars on consultants
Sam: to tell you you need like a joe rogan of the left or whatever no.
Ivan: By the way to see joe rogan has been lately like ripping trump and the administration
Ivan: over and over on a whole bunch of different things he had bernie sanders on recently.
Sam: By the way.
Ivan: And all of a sudden he's been,
Ivan: I don't know. He's been... Yeah, but you don't need these studies.
Ivan: I mean, it's very... The reason why is very...
Ivan: It's right in front of your face. And they're fighting it for no good reason whatsoever.
Ivan: I mean, they're fighting the solution for no good reason whatsoever.
Sam: Right. Okay. And as promised, I looked up that debate clip of Mamdani.
Sam: So here's a little bit of the mayoral debate. It includes Mamdami talking,
Sam: then a little bit of Cuomo, then Mamdami's response. It's about a minute long. Here we go.
Mamdani: My name is Assemblymember Zahran Mamdani, and I am running to make the city affordable.
Mamdani: I'll freeze the rent for millions of tenants, make buses fast and free,
Mamdani: and deliver universal childcare.
Mamdani: And before you ask, I'll pay for it by taxing the rich.
Cuomo: To put a person in this seat at this time with no experience is reckless and dangerous.
Mamdani: To Mr. Cuomo, I have never had to resign in disgrace. I have never cut Medicaid.
Mamdani: I have never stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the MTA.
Mamdani: I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment.
Mamdani: I have never sued for their gynecological records, and I have never done those
Mamdani: things because I am not you, Mr.
Mamdani: Cuomo. And furthermore, the name is Mamdani, M-A-M-D-A-N-I.
Mamdani: You should learn how to say it because we got to get it right.
Ivan: Oh, my God, he would abolish stuff. Jesus Christ.
Sam: Yeah, I mean, and that has been that's the one I've seen the most.
Sam: And like I said, people have been making remixes of it, putting a beat behind
Sam: it, all this kind of other stuff. but that is typical of how he is responding
Sam: to things and and again it's it's about the energy.
Ivan: Yeah you.
Sam: Know and yeah.
Ivan: No and it's about you know like how he didn't you know let it pass for example
Ivan: the fact that he's a accused credibly accused sexual assaulter who resigned
Ivan: in disgrace and all the other.
Sam: Things he listed.
Ivan: And all the other things he listed it's like the same thing It's like when you
Ivan: approach Donald Trump and you normalize him instead of, like,
Ivan: you know, basically referring to him as Mr. 37 felonies.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, because that's who he is. He is a convicted felon who happens to be
Ivan: president of the United States and a convicted rapist also,
Ivan: because he was found to be a rapist by a civil court as well and liable for it. OK, OK.
Ivan: And the famer.
Sam: Technically not convicted. It's found liable. But yes, yes.
Ivan: That's what I said. Found liable.
Sam: Yeah, I know.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: You said convicted first. I was making it clear for the record.
Ivan: Well, convicted. But it was, but you know, it was in a, I said civil court. I did not say criminal.
Sam: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ivan: Okay. You know, you know. So, you know.
Sam: Let's take a quick break and then zoom through some SCOTUS stuff.
Sam: We're, you know, and then wrap this sucker up.
Sam: Back after this.
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Sam: Okay. Supreme Court. There were a number of cases.
Sam: As usual, the majority of them were bad in one way or another.
Sam: There was, the Supreme Court upheld age verification for porn in Texas.
Sam: The Supreme Court ruled that a law requiring parental opt-out for any book with
Sam: gay characters was legitimate in schools.
Sam: There were a couple others. But the one that got the biggest attention,
Sam: people have been calling it the birthright citizenship case,
Sam: but it's not actually about birthright citizenship because it is prompted by that case.
Sam: But the appeal that was in front of the Supreme Court was about nationwide injunctions. Yeah.
Sam: and whether or not those were appropriate. And basically the court said,
Sam: no, no more nationwide injunctions.
Sam: I think they allowed some very limited cases to it.
Ivan: Well, no more nationwide injunctions unless the cases were class action suits.
Sam: Well, no, the class action suit wouldn't be a nationwide injunction.
Sam: It would be an injunction on the class action.
Ivan: Against the class. Against the class. So the thing is that they just said that
Ivan: you couldn't get blanket injunctions like that unless, A, I guess you filed in every jurisdiction.
Ivan: You had to like, or B, it was against a class, a specified class that was nationwide.
Ivan: There was a whole bunch of things.
Ivan: Here's my, look, listen, here's my problem with this case.
Ivan: My hot take is very simple, okay? During the Biden administration,
Ivan: during the Obama administration, we had we had a lot of we had a lot of people,
Ivan: conservatives specifically,
Ivan: went and shopped for certain jurisdictions that would go and like look at certain
Ivan: cases and issue this kind of injunction because they would find one friendly
Ivan: jurisdiction that would take it and they would always go there.
Ivan: In Texas, there was one specifically that was famous for basically taking a
Ivan: lot of these cases, and they would wind up blocking a lot of actions like on
Ivan: student debt and a whole bunch of stuff or whatever using this tool, okay?
Ivan: And it was very, I mean, it was very obstructive, okay?
Ivan: I don't and so I found it
Ivan: that you know I remember that one of the things that kept one
Ivan: of the changes that happened during time was that
Ivan: it was making it more difficult for people to shop jurisdictions that could
Ivan: give those injunctions okay for a while because those injunctions were very
Ivan: they were happening by some low-level court on some fucking case where all of
Ivan: a sudden presidential you know any policy could get blocked real quickly okay.
Ivan: And so now, of course, Trump is the one that goes, challenges it.
Sam: Well, no, just to be clear, this had been- Challenging the policy.
Sam: No, no, but just to be clear, nationwide injunctions had been challenged before
Sam: by Biden most recently, but the Supreme Court declined to do anything about
Sam: it while Biden was president.
Ivan: Right. And now they did it when Trump was president.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: And so the thing is that in a vacuum, This had been something that, yeah,
Ivan: Democrats had challenged repeatedly over had failed.
Ivan: And now the thing is that's annoying is that it happened now in this way.
Ivan: So in a vacuum, it's, you know, I'm like, okay, this kind of makes sense.
Ivan: But in terms, in practical terms, what it's what you said, they declined to
Ivan: hear it when Biden was president, and then Trump is president.
Ivan: And then all of a sudden, oh, yeah, you're right. This shouldn't happen.
Sam: So here's the thing. A lot of these can go through as class actions instead.
Sam: And so that's already happened in the birthright citizenship.
Ivan: That's already happened.
Sam: There have been several cases already filed just within the first 48 hours, right?
Ivan: Right.
Sam: To do this as a class action instead. um but
Sam: this affects potentially all kinds of policies of
Sam: all different sorts that some of them are
Sam: maybe more amenable to class actions than others right
Sam: and so where what we end up in is potentially a situation because what they
Sam: said specifically is you can enjoin an action but only in respect to the specific
Sam: plaintiffs that have a complaint at a given time right now if you have a natural class,
Sam: then, oh, okay, we'll do a class action lawsuit.
Sam: And then if we get an injunction, it'll be against the whole class. Right.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: But in cases where it's harder to clearly identify who will be affected as a class,
Sam: what it essentially ends up being is that until or unless you actually sue and
Sam: get an injunction individually, one by one.
Sam: your rights can't be respected. Yes, exactly. Because what we've said here is
Sam: the court can't just say, this law fundamentally violates people's rights.
Sam: So nobody can act on this law until it finishes going through the legal process.
Sam: And by the way, even with all of these other injunctions, of course,
Sam: typically speaking, they would make their way up through the courts and they
Sam: would eventually get resolved one way or another. The injunction was until it
Sam: could be resolved in that way.
Sam: But in this case, it's potentially saying like the birthright citizenship case can be done as a class.
Sam: So it may not be the best example, but let me use it as an example for simplicity.
Sam: What it would be saying right now is that Trump's policy of saying,
Sam: you are not a citizen just because you were born here.
Sam: You have to have had parents that were born here in certain circumstances,
Sam: blah, blah, blah, as well.
Sam: You couldn't have been under certain visas. You couldn't have been here illegally.
Sam: All of the things he's trying to put in there. you couldn't just say,
Sam: no, no, no, until that's all legally resolved by the Supreme Court,
Sam: you guys are, you still have all your full citizenship rights.
Sam: Instead, you could say, none of these people have citizenship rights unless
Sam: they sue for them and win the first round in court to get an injunction.
Sam: And so what some of the dissents from the liberals said is basically this automatically says, essentially.
Sam: That the government can violate rights left and right unless you are savvy enough
Sam: to get a lawyer, you can afford to get a lawyer, and it can be a good lawyer who gets you in.
Sam: Like, the default is, you know, government decides to start violating some rights,
Sam: they get to do so in total or in less.
Sam: And so it just puts a lot more power on the government. And you're absolutely
Sam: right. both Democrats and Republicans, assuming we have a Democratic president
Sam: again sometime in the future, it puts a lot more power in the executive.
Sam: And this is in complete keeping with this court's general philosophy of expansive executive power.
Sam: They are reducing the power of the courts. They are reducing the power of Congress.
Sam: Generally speaking, they, well, with a few notable exceptions,
Sam: But they, generally speaking,
Sam: believe that, yes, the president should hold very, very strong powers to be
Sam: able to do a lot of things unsupervised and without checks and balances.
Ivan: Yep.
Sam: You know, fundamentally, like, back when I was listening to Schoolhouse Rock,
Sam: it seemed like, you know,
Sam: checks and balances were the entire fucking point of the Constitution,
Sam: you know, is to make things hard, to make sure you didn't have concentration.
Ivan: Well, but let's be clear about this. The biggest problem here has been,
Ivan: like, over time, the fucking Congress has abdicated their fault.
Sam: And now the courts are too.
Ivan: Grisbop. Well...
Ivan: To a certain extent, yes, the courts have said, well, we shouldn't have jurisdiction on it.
Ivan: And Congress, you know, has basically washed our hands and said,
Ivan: you know, it's not our thing.
Sam: And look, this has been a continuous trend since the country was founded.
Sam: Slowly but surely, more and more power has gone to the executive.
Sam: It's just with, you know, some ups and downs along the way. But if you compare to, you know,
Sam: the amount of power George Washington had to the amount of power Donald Trump
Sam: is accumulating and look at the trend in between, it's gone one way, basically.
Sam: The president accumulating more and more power over time.
Ivan: Well, we had a minor blip.
Sam: We've had a few blips along the way.
Ivan: We've had a few blips.
Sam: But the overall trend is not.
Ivan: We had two blips. I think FDR had a pushback. Well, think about,
Ivan: for example, how we had the amendment limiting presidential terms to two.
Sam: After he died.
Ivan: After, yeah, after he died. But yeah.
Sam: There wasn't any pushback while he was alive.
Ivan: But hey, it happened. Okay. All right. So, you know, so you had that and then Watergate.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I do think it's like everything, man. I don't know. I have to believe the pendulum will be a pushback.
Sam: Pendulums.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Pendulums.
Ivan: There's going to be a pushback against. this because it's
Ivan: just you know it's just ridiculous i mean at
Ivan: some point you're gonna get another speaker at a house that's more tippo neil
Ivan: less this loser that we've got right now what's his name you know johnson whatever
Ivan: johnson whatever fucking name and i'm supposed to know his name i he's so forgettable
Ivan: you know we'll get some guy but he's lost it we.
Sam: All thought he would be gone much much.
Ivan: Sooner listen i gotta give him credit for survival but i also think it's it's
Ivan: i I also believe that part of it has to do with the fact that nobody wants the fucking job.
Ivan: Because I've seen this happen before, like in companies, where all of a sudden,
Ivan: so how did this guy get to have ESV paid?
Ivan: It's like, well, nobody really wanted that fucking job.
Sam: Yeah. Anyway, the SCOTUS stuff ties back into the optimism and pessimism we started the show with.
Sam: Because this is one of the things where even if, you know, we end up in 2029
Sam: with a democratic trifecta.
Sam: They take the presidency, they take the Senate, they take the House,
Sam: which, you know, look, if Donald Trump keeps screwing things up and makes things
Sam: worse, then that's the natural reaction to that, right?
Sam: But even if we have that, it's still going to be a long time before the balance in SCOTUS changes,
Sam: unless you have a Democratic Congress and president who's actually willing to
Sam: reform the court, which we did not have. Last time around.
Ivan: No, but I got to tell you something. Whoever is a Democrat wins.
Ivan: I foresee far more... Momdami?
Sam: Momdami.
Ivan: Momdami?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: For sure.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: And look, I'm not going to... I'll say this again because I love Joe.
Ivan: I think Joe had a good idea.
Ivan: His idea of what he wanted is an idea that, I mean, in a vacuum appealed to me.
Sam: Going back to, like.
Ivan: Decades-old Republicans and Democrats working together. That appealed to me.
Sam: Blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: But unfortunately, the reality wasn't that.
Sam: Well, and I think that's one of the things we have to see is how all of this
Sam: plays out between establishment Democrats and the new wave as it is.
Sam: At this point, I'm rooting for the new wave.
Ivan: I'm rooting for the new wave. I'm new wave. Fuck this shit.
Sam: Don't have what it takes.
Ivan: Catch the wave. Coke.
Sam: Coke. Yes.
Ivan: Oh, no, it's not. That's not the wave we're talking about.
Sam: Catch the wave.
Ivan: That's Coke. That was the slogan for Coke for a while.
Sam: Oh, that's right.
Ivan: Catch the wave, Coke.
Sam: It was. It was. But Pepsi's got the little wave on their bottles,
Sam: too. The little ball. The little ball has a wave in the middle.
Ivan: You're like a yin-yang ball, isn't it?
Sam: Sort of. But yes, Coke has the wave. Like, yes. Yes.
Sam: Anyway, yeah, I feel like the Supreme Court is one of the reasons why the damage
Sam: from Trump, both terms, I think has a lifespan of many decades.
Ivan: Not something that gets flipped right away. Hillary's emails, man. Come on. Oh, my God.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: They're fucking emails.
Sam: I mean.
Ivan: In an unsecure server. Yes.
Sam: You know, those recipes.
Ivan: Sam.
Sam: Yes. Even after like after the 2016 election, I said it would be take decades
Sam: to recover this, recover from one term of Donald Trump.
Sam: Hell, even before the election, I said even the fact that he was the nominee
Sam: would take a long time to recover from, even if he lost in 2016.
Sam: I think the fact that not only did he win, but then he won again,
Sam: admittedly after a break, but he won again after January 6th,
Sam: after a completely disastrous first term.
Sam: He still won again. And, you know, the damage that we are going to see over
Sam: this is going to last a long time.
Sam: I hope your optimistic view is right and that,
Sam: you know, we get a lot of dramatic change to undo this stuff quickly once he's no longer in power,
Sam: but I'm not sure.
Sam: I think it's going to take a lot longer than that because we also have to remember
Sam: that what he's stirred up is not just him anymore. You know,
Sam: it is an entire movement.
Sam: It is more than half of the voters.
Sam: I'm not going to say they wanted this because there were a lot of ignorant people
Sam: who at this point are being like, I didn't vote for that.
Ivan: But I do think that, OK, I know that there is a lot of it tied to that,
Ivan: but I think that there is a significant, significant portion that is just a cult of Trump.
Ivan: And so that's one of the things about getting rid of Trump, that despite the
Ivan: fact that I know that it is a big movement, it's a cult.
Ivan: It's a cult of the person.
Sam: Yeah. Listen, so far, nobody else in MAGA has shown like Vance.
Ivan: No.
Sam: I mean, and I know he's been pumping up like Trump Jr.
Sam: or something. But really, you know, nobody else on that side has yet to show
Sam: a lot of strong signs of being able to be the natural air to pick up in the same way as Donald has.
Sam: And so we'll see. You're right. Lots of times when these personality driven
Sam: movements have the leader die or otherwise move off the stage,
Sam: they fall apart. cross my fingers.
Ivan: Okay, I need to stop for one second. An alarm is going off. I don't know what the hell's going on.
Ivan: We need to wrap this up. I don't know. Quickly. Two seconds.
Ivan: I don't have time for this.
Sam: I hear you. Okay. Well, that's about it.
Sam: Yeah. Well, as usual, we'll see how the future plays out. Like we don't get
Sam: to actually skip ahead years like you suggested at the beginning.
Sam: Anyway, curmudgeons-corner.com. You know where to find us.
Sam: All the ways to contact us. Again, if you are interested in the Curmudgeons
Sam: Corner meetup on Wednesday, July 2nd.
Sam: Contact us in any of those ways there. Let us know, and we will let you know
Sam: the exact place and time as soon as we know it.
Sam: And, you know, just give us feedback anyway. Tell us what you think of the show.
Sam: Also on there, you can find our transcripts, all of that.
Sam: Archive of old shows. You can, what? Oh, yes, you can give us money on the Patreon.
Ivan: Met up. I need to go. Thank you, everybody. I need to go. Okay?
Ivan: All right. Goodbye, everybody.
Sam: I'll wrap it up without you, Yvonne. Go.
Ivan: Okay. But how is that going to work?
Sam: I will still be here once you just hang up. And, of course, go to our Patreon.
Sam: You know, give us money. We like money. Money, money, money,
Sam: money, money, money, money, money.
Sam: And at various levels, we will mention you on the show. We will send you a postcard.
Sam: We will send you a mug. The mugs are nice.
Sam: I've been drinking out of the mug during the podcast here.
Sam: and at $2 a month or more, or if you just ask us, we will invite you to the
Sam: Commudgence Chorus Slack where
Sam: Yvonne and I and a bunch of listeners are chatting throughout the week.
Sam: Normally I would ask Yvonne right now to give a highlight from the Commudgence
Sam: Chorus Slack, but he had to run because like an alarm was going off at his house
Sam: or something. So I'm closing up without him.
Sam: And yeah, if you are in the Seattle area, we would love to see you.
Sam: drop us a line. We'll let you know where we're meeting.
Sam: It'd be great to see you and talk to you in person.
Sam: Other than that, hey, everybody, have a great week. Have a fun time. Do good things.
Sam: All that goody, goody gumdrop stuff. Gumdrop stuff.
Sam: Anyway, have a great week. We'll talk to you next time. Hopefully we'll see
Sam: some of you in person between now and then.
Sam: And We'll see you on the next show. Goodbye.
Sam: Hey, forgot the outro. Here we go. Once again, goodbye.
Sam: Test one, two, three. Okay, folks, for anybody wondering after Yvonne disappeared so abruptly,
Sam: what had happened was his son was opening or closing a window or something, bumped into it wrong,
Sam: set off the alarm, and Yvonne tried to turn it off and struggled with it,
Sam: eventually got the sound off, but was still worried that it was going to call
Sam: the police because that's what alarm systems do.
Sam: and the mechanism that was on the alarm had gotten knocked out of position or
Sam: something, something, something.
Sam: Anyway, he eventually got it all fixed. He texted me later, reported all is good, all is fine.
Sam: But yeah, he had to run.
Sam: Anyway, goodbye for real. Wait, let me try that again. Goodbye for real.