Sam: Okay, here we go. Intro, go!
Sam: Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Friday, February 14th, 2025.
Sam: It's just after three UTC.
Sam: I'm Sam Minter and Yvonne Boas here. Hello, Yvonne.
Ivan: Hello.
Sam: So as usual, I guess we're going to do a but first.
Sam: And as I've promised, I am ready to resume media and talking about movies and TV and stuff.
Sam: And then we'll do more serious topics later on, as time allows.
Sam: Some from Yvonne, some from me. so you got any light and frothy stuff to start
Sam: with or should i jump in i don't.
Ivan: Have time today so i i've got a
Ivan: 5 a.m flight i'm back in puerto rico again i don't i don't i don't know what
Ivan: what's what what what is you know i know i okay i guess the the only one tidbit
Ivan: now we'll mention this and I'll make sure I keep it super short like right now for one minute.
Ivan: I keep coming back to San Juan. There is one thing. This island's too fucking small.
Ivan: Because I keep going to places and I keep bumping into people I know from high
Ivan: school. I go around where I live.
Sam: I think one recent time like last year when you were in Puerto Rico you mentioned the same thing.
Ivan: This fucking island is way too damn small man. Look,
Ivan: I mean I go to like the gym in Boca and
Ivan: I bump into people i know but the reality is that
Ivan: me going to a restaurant there whatever blah
Ivan: blah blah bumping up people that doesn't happen okay it
Ivan: doesn't fucking happen okay and i went to i went to a restaurant last week for
Ivan: lunch and one of my high school classmates was there and came across from the
Ivan: other side hey how you doing and then you know and then um and then it's a very
Ivan: loud dog And then yesterday,
Ivan: I went to work out at – there's a local – I go to Orange Theory Fitness.
Ivan: There's one actually near the hotel.
Ivan: And I went there, and there's another high school classmate of mine there saying
Ivan: hi to me. I'm like, what the fuck is this?
Ivan: We're only 90 – listen, dude. We're only 90 people and about 100 people that
Ivan: went – my high school class. It's not like we're 3,000.
Ivan: It's like two in two straight weeks. Like, you know, two straight weeks here.
Ivan: It's fucking ridiculous.
Ivan: So, yeah, this fucking island is way too damn small is what I realized.
Sam: Very good. Okay. Good enough. I will do one.
Sam: I may, I mean, going forward, need to do like two a week to catch up.
Sam: But I'm only going to do one. I'm going to do one.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And that is Mitchell and the Machines.
Ivan: I thought you were going to talk about Mitch McConnell for a second, but no. Okay.
Sam: No, not this time. Now, to be fair, I have talked about Mitchell versus the
Sam: Machines. Let me get it right.
Sam: But I have talked about it on the show once before. I watched it in 2022,
Sam: and apparently, for whatever reason, it came up again, and I watched it again in 2024, in May.
Sam: And I'm going to give this one a thumbs up. It is a, it was a movie that was
Sam: here in the U S it was a Netflix movie.
Sam: I don't know if they introduced it internationally and other places,
Sam: but it was, uh, it was, it was a Netflix movie.
Ivan: I see 2021.
Sam: Yeah. And it's a cartoon. It's sort of a, it's a little bit of a comedy slash
Sam: adventure slash whatever. Anyway, big thumbs up.
Sam: I, I, I really enjoyed this movie. Like I watched it twice. I enjoyed it just
Sam: as much the second time around.
Ivan: What was it about?
Sam: Okay, so basically...
Ivan: You know, just took the super short, short cliff notes.
Sam: The super high-level version of it. There is this guy who is clearly modeled
Sam: on Steve Jobs and Apple. Okay.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And he is introducing the newest version of the personal assistant.
Sam: So the old one was like Siri and he's on a phone.
Sam: The new one, the new one is like an actual robot.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And so the thing is, surprise, surprise, the robots turn evil and try to take over the world.
Ivan: Such an original plot at this point.
Sam: And basically, this one family, you know, ends up being the family that ends
Sam: up having to fight and deal with this invasion.
Ivan: Beat the robot.
Sam: Like, because for whatever reason, and you see it happen in the thing,
Sam: they end up not captured by the robots.
Sam: Whereas, like, the entire rest of the population of Earth was captured by the robots.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And the thing is, it's funny. It's heartwarming in the right places because
Sam: it's got like, you know, there's the thing about them going,
Sam: going off, you know, fighting the robots and all that kind of stuff.
Sam: But also there's a thing about the daughter's relationship with her dad and
Sam: the, you know, and there's, you know, some family dynamic stuff going on because
Sam: it's all, they're also having a road trip together and not getting along while
Sam: they're having the road trip.
Sam: And then there's a couple of robots that are comic relief type of things.
Sam: Furbies make a cameo at one point.
Ivan: Oh, Furby! Furby! Yeah!
Sam: Anyway, I give it a thumbs up. I enjoyed the movie. Let's see.
Sam: Reception, 53 million households watched it in the first 28 days.
Sam: The Rotten Tomatoes score is 97%.
Ivan: Milds, pretty good. Okay.
Sam: That's pretty good. The site's critic consensus reads,
Sam: eye-catching and energetic, the Mitchells versus the machines delivers a funny
Sam: feel-good story that the whole family can enjoy. There you go. Anyway.
Ivan: Okay. There you go.
Sam: There's my media. So we can wrap up the but first really fast and get to the
Sam: serious stuff so you can get the hell out of here.
Ivan: Go sleep.
Sam: Leave.
Ivan: Oh, come on. Yeah, we have to be up early.
Sam: Okay, well, this break will do. Here we go.
Sam: I need to make more music. That's clearly my real career.
Ivan: Yes. That's my future. Yes.
Sam: That thing right there, it's amazing. It hasn't won a Grammy already.
Ivan: I know. I'm shocked.
Sam: Yeah, exactly.
Ivan: Shocked and appalled. Just like Susan.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Always shocked and appalled.
Sam: She's concerned.
Ivan: Concerned. She's always concerned. Very concerned. It's always very concerned.
Sam: Okay. So a lot has actually happened this week. including some stuff just in
Sam: the last few hours. Where do you want to start, Yvonne?
Ivan: Which stuff are you talking about the last few hours? Which ones? The tariffs?
Sam: No, the last few hours is the Mayor Adams stuff with all the people resigning.
Ivan: Well, no, there was other tariff stuff that happened during those hours,
Ivan: too, if you didn't notice.
Sam: Oh, so why don't you start with tariffs, and then I can talk about Mayor Adams
Sam: and some of the other stuff in the next thing.
Ivan: Well, the thing is that Trump went and announced this whole thing about,
Ivan: reciprocal tariffs, which Sam remembered that it wasn't a Clancy novel back
Ivan: in the 90s, but you remembered the wrong novel.
Sam: Yeah, I said some of all fears, because that's really the one I always go to
Sam: whenever I mention a Clancy novel.
Ivan: It was the one after it was a debt of honor, not some of all fears,
Ivan: which that was the start of a conflict with Japan specifically was the reciprocal tariffs.
Ivan: And so he did the announcement,
Ivan: And then very shortly after, but they were starting immediately,
Ivan: then said that he postponed them. I don't know.
Sam: This is what he's done with every tariff so far. Every single one so far.
Ivan: Except the China ones.
Sam: True China did go into effect.
Ivan: Yeah, except the China one. But every single other one, it's been,
Ivan: I mean, he literally went, like, not, like, I mean,
Ivan: it's probably why you missed it, because it happened almost like,
Ivan: I'm like, I'm reading the announcement first about the tariffs and then I'm going to wait. Huh?
Sam: Well, I missed the immediate part because I saw an update earlier today.
Sam: There's like some group is going to study it and blah, blah,
Sam: blah, and come back with recommendations, blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: So look, this was...
Sam: I mean, I know a few days ago he said it was going to start today.
Ivan: 1910 UTC.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Trump moved... Bloomberg News, breaking news.
Ivan: trump moved to impose reciprocal
Ivan: tariffs on u.s training partners with no clear doubt
Ivan: there okay yeah because then he said with no clear date
Ivan: when it would take effect because originally said immediate and so
Ivan: that's why it actually happened so quickly then bloomberg
Ivan: was able to combine it into
Ivan: the one breaking news thing
Ivan: because others said oh trump announced let
Ivan: me see it's got to be let me see in
Ivan: in in in in cnbc they
Ivan: because they went and i saw hey tariffs tariffs tariffs are coming okay trump
Ivan: signed sweeping reciprocal tariff plan says more coming that was seven hours
Ivan: ago okay okay and then so that one that i wrote from Bloomberg was a little bit later.
Ivan: Oh, yeah, we don't know the date.
Ivan: So, people said that the stock market went up today because they were like, yeah, whatever.
Ivan: He's just going to say every week there's fucking tariffs to somebody.
Ivan: I'm like, whatever. Who cares?
Ivan: And then he's going to back off most of them. And so, who the fuck cares?
Sam: Well, yeah, and this, like, at least in theory, the notion is for each one of
Sam: these individual countries, they'll give some sort of concession and it'll result
Sam: in the backing off or there'll be the holes and exceptions.
Ivan: There'll be some victory, yeah. Well, I mean, I'm sure that,
Ivan: you know, also we had the aluminum and steel tariffs that he announced.
Sam: Right, right. Those were like a day.
Ivan: Which those were also a couple of days ago. I'm going to guess that he's going
Ivan: to back them off pretty quick.
Ivan: Coke Cola today. You know, we know he loves Diet Coke.
Ivan: And I don't know if you've noticed that for the most part, he drinks it out
Ivan: of a can. And I don't know if you've noticed that.
Sam: I have not noticed, but okay.
Ivan: But usually he is drinking it out of a can.
Ivan: Coke said today that if they do put those aluminum tariffs in,
Ivan: that they may have to reduce making almost any of their products in aluminum
Ivan: and have to use plastic in the U.S.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: So if he gets a hold of that, well, that will put a hole already in the aluminum tariffs right away.
Sam: Just Donald Trump's consumption of Diet Coke.
Ivan: Yes.
Ivan: oh you don't think i'm being you don't think i'm being rational i'm not analyzing
Ivan: this rationally of course he's like if they tell him hey boss yeah he said they
Ivan: can't make the diet coke anymore because of your aluminum tears i'll cancel him it.
Sam: Wouldn't be surprising.
Ivan: I mean And I mean, I fully expect that's going to be the case.
Sam: Look, I mean, the things to remember here are all of these are performative
Sam: and all of them are transactional and nothing is well thought out either.
Ivan: No, no, no.
Sam: Yeah. And this applies not just to the tariffs, but practically anything else
Sam: he's been doing so far, because the whole theory of operations is, hey, nobody can stop me.
Sam: I can do whatever the fuck I want. So I'm just going to like order what I want
Sam: and then figure it out later.
Sam: and so sometimes that means things are getting stopped by the courts sometimes
Sam: that means things are having unintended consequences beyond what he wanted.
Ivan: Sometimes it means that here's another one that he said today well here's another
Ivan: one that he said today that led to a massive drop in defense stocks real quickly
Ivan: this was today this is all fucking today this fucking i hate this goddamn administration,
Ivan: today this was at 3.53pm this was like after the fucking tarot thing the Fed
Ivan: stocks dropped after Trump says pentabon,
Ivan: Pentagon spending. Yes, Pentagon spending.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Halved. Okay?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: And then a couple of hours later, he's telling the Europeans,
Ivan: hey, you need to buy more American weapons.
Ivan: And then right afterwards, he tells Modi, hey, can I tell you some F-35s?
Ivan: That was this afternoon.
Sam: I don't even know what to say. Like, look.
Ivan: What the heck did he talk to? Was that today, too?
Sam: I think so. Wasn't it this morning?
Ivan: What the heck did this goddamn illustration?
Sam: For those of you on audio only, Yvonne is, like, holding his head in his hands. And, yeah.
Ivan: That was all today!
Sam: Yes. That is all today. Like, he...
Sam: And here's the thing. And this, this, this comes back to several themes we've
Sam: had before. Like we've talked about, look at what they do, not what they say.
Sam: And we've, we've talked about, you know, I don't know, like I have a note here.
Sam: One of the things I wanted to talk about process versus results versus appearance.
Sam: Like, because on the one hand, he's saying all of these really alarming things,
Sam: but only some of them actually end up translating into actions.
Sam: Now, the ones that do translate into actions are almost universally bad.
Sam: But even when it's just him talking like you're it's the president of the fucking United States.
Ivan: Exactly.
Sam: You know, when he says something, people can't just ignore it.
Sam: They have. Yeah. So. So, yes, he says something about, you know,
Sam: cutting the Pentagon spending in half and the stock market goes crazy.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: You know, and, and, and, and meanwhile, people are also having to take seriously,
Sam: okay, if you actually did cut it in half, what would that look like?
Sam: What would happen? Like, what, what would that mean to our defense posture and
Sam: all of this kind of stuff? And,
Sam: So you have to pay some attention to what he says, even if it doesn't, like, happen.
Sam: But you also have to, like, sort of calm down, wait a little bit, see what does happen.
Sam: Because, like you said, announce tariffs and then unannounce them five minutes later.
Ivan: Did you see what Elon's kid said? I sent the video. I don't think that was doctored.
Sam: No, he said several things. One of them was sort of like, you're,
Sam: you're not the real president. You have to get out of here.
Ivan: Uh, one of the things he said.
Sam: Yes, yes, he did.
Sam: He, I think he also said something about you have to shut up now as well.
Sam: At one point it was something similar. I might not be word for word.
Sam: Um, you know, and, and people are like, of course he's just imitating his dad. what his dad says.
Ivan: Right? It has to be. I didn't come up with that shit. He's like, what, four?
Sam: Something like that four.
Ivan: I'm sure you're his dad.
Sam: Named Axe, of course. His name is Axe.
Ivan: Fuck, I swear to God. You know, that kid, when he turns into a teenager,
Ivan: will fucking hate his father.
Ivan: I mean, I can put money right now down and guarantee that one right now.
Sam: Like the rest of Elon's kids.
Ivan: Like the rest of his kids. I mean, not exactly. I'm not exactly.
Sam: What's he got now, like 15 or something?
Ivan: Oh, who knows? I don't know.
Sam: You know, because Elon's also, of course, said that, you know,
Sam: it's part of his mission to sort of impregnate as many women as possible with
Sam: as many kids as possible.
Sam: You know, you know, you have to preserve his magnificent genes.
Ivan: Well, speaking of of this whole thing with with with how, you know,
Ivan: what he says versus what actually happened on that.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Right. You know, we've heard all the noise around what he's done,
Ivan: you know, with Elon in terms of job cuts and stuff. Right. OK,
Ivan: so we've heard a lot of that.
Ivan: And there was the New York Times had an actual like little tracker that they
Ivan: put on how much he's actually done so far.
Ivan: And, you know, we're talking really at this point.
Ivan: Really a handful of employees. Okay. And the thing is that the big thing was USAID.
Ivan: Where he did take that agency. You know, it's been, all their work has been stopped.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: And there was a financial impact to a lot of farmers.
Ivan: Because they were, there was a big buyer of U.S.
Ivan: farm products. Billions of dollars of it.
Ivan: And so he completely screwed, Elon, a whole bunch of farmers that are now,
Ivan: of course, that they voted for Trump and now are pissed off.
Sam: We mentioned that last week. Part of it was the USAID, but apparently there
Sam: are other grants to farmers that were also paused.
Sam: So they're basically getting screwed left and right.
Ivan: No, no, no. They were buying those farm products to give away the vote.
Sam: No, I'm saying, yeah, yes, the USAID thing that you were mentioning,
Sam: but also other grants to farmers were also paused.
Sam: So they're getting screwed left and right, you know?
Ivan: Yeah, so the farmers are like, you know, but all of a sudden,
Ivan: as we have been mentioning,
Ivan: this is, the only people that seem to be MAGA that are complaining about stuff
Ivan: is when, now that they're actually, because they're not hurting the other people
Ivan: they expected to get hurt, because they're getting hurt, okay? Right.
Ivan: That's the only reason. That's the only reason.
Ivan: But the number of employees right now that has been impacted has been relatively
Ivan: small at this at this stage.
Ivan: I know that they're asking for, you know, you know, the all these people to be cut.
Ivan: The one group of employees that seems to be really getting hammered like right
Ivan: away is anybody that, you know, I don't even know.
Ivan: I've never been at a company that puts employees on probation for more than 30 days.
Ivan: Well, I didn't realize that the federal government like does that for,
Ivan: you know, for so many employees that for such.
Ivan: I saw that some provisions in federal government can last up to two years.
Sam: Oh, OK. Yeah, because I was reading that and I was thinking,
Sam: OK, that's just the 60 days or something.
Ivan: No, it was like probations that could be one to two years.
Sam: That's crazy.
Ivan: It is a crazy amount of time. You
Ivan: know, yeah, I mean, I've never heard of probations that were that long.
Ivan: So so a lot of those people have been getting, you know, getting,
Ivan: you know, just just yeah, just fireball, which is just, you know,
Ivan: the whole thing about a lot of this.
Ivan: It's just There's just so There's just so,
Ivan: There's no thought to it. And, you know, it goes into, like,
Ivan: what Elon already did at Twitter, where he got rid of a whole bunch of people
Ivan: and then had to go call him.
Ivan: Hey, can you come back? We can't run this shit without you. You know?
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Kind of a thing. So there's no method to the madness in any of this.
Ivan: And like you mentioned, they talk about the deficit, talk about the deficit,
Ivan: and that's why they're cutting the employees. The current annual deficit is
Ivan: about to be two trillion dollars.
Ivan: You fired all the employees in the federal government. You could fire them all, all, all.
Ivan: My estimate is that maybe you could save 100 to 200 billion dollars total.
Ivan: That's it. That's firing them all. all of
Ivan: them the employee head count and the
Ivan: federal government is is like not even
Ivan: i mean it's like it's you know the the budget
Ivan: the budget is like four trillion dollars if i remember correctly right right
Ivan: now five trillion no more like five six trillion dollars 200 billion dollars
Ivan: is nothing it's nothing out of that budget it's just nothing so they are going
Ivan: it's the entire performative thing because this goes and does shock and awe.
Ivan: This shows that we are in charge.
Ivan: We are going in and we're marching in and we're doing this.
Ivan: But really in terms of addressing the deficit, it's a complete joke.
Ivan: And it's a total joke, especially with the tax cuts they're talking about trying
Ivan: to do on the other end because, I mean, all of that will be eaten up with one
Ivan: of those tax cuts like that. Okay? Okay.
Sam: So, so that's what I was going to say.
Sam: Like lately, like, yes, in the past, there has been a lot of talk about deficits recently.
Sam: Like when you hear Elon talk or whatever, it's all about like waste and inefficiency
Sam: and fraud. That's what he keeps saying.
Sam: Like, and saying that this, this or that is like, we shouldn't be spending money
Sam: on that. We shouldn't be spending money on this.
Sam: Of course, ignoring the fact that in almost all cases we're
Sam: spending money because there was a law passed that said we should but yeah
Sam: but you know basically fraud efficiency blah blah blah blah blah but that that's
Sam: clearly not what they're actually doing and like you said like it's not about
Sam: deficit either if anything it's about trying to pay for his tax cuts that he wants to do but now but.
Ivan: Even that isn't enough here here's a problem and i and i pulled this information
Ivan: today to try to understand why we are where we are related to the deficit in
Ivan: taxes. And look, since 2015.
Ivan: The last 10 years, our U.S.
Ivan: GDP has grown about somewhere over 50 odd percent.
Ivan: Okay. So the economy has had huge growth over the last 10 years.
Ivan: The problem is tax receipts have barely gone up less than 10 percent.
Ivan: And that does not compute. That is not sustainable.
Ivan: You can't be in an economy that is growing that added $10 trillion,
Ivan: okay, to the economy over that
Ivan: time period and only collect an extra few hundred billion in extra taxes.
Ivan: There's just no way. It shouldn't be that way.
Ivan: And that's a big thing with all these damn tax cuts that have come in with the
Ivan: Trump administration and, you know,
Ivan: in his administration at first that went and like took revenues down 2020 you
Ivan: know the the pandemic also caused an expansion of the deficit,
Ivan: and the reality is that tax receipts did not start growing again until biden
Ivan: came into office again okay because there were some tax increases there were
Ivan: some loophole schools there were because he went and he put people in the irs
Ivan: so they would go after collecting taxes from people,
Ivan: These guys, what they want, they want to move IRS agents to go do immigration shit.
Ivan: Like, they don't even know what the fuck they're doing.
Ivan: And so, that's going to dent receipts. You can't run a fucking business where
Ivan: you don't get money. I mean, you need to collect money.
Ivan: It's not just about spending money. Of course, Elon's doing that with Twitter.
Ivan: I mean, right now, we basically, you know, fucking like drove revenue down 90%.
Ivan: And also, he's doing a great job with Tesla right now because in January,
Ivan: globally, electric car sales were soared and his sales plummeted.
Ivan: Great job, Elon. You're doing great. I really am looking forward to the next
Ivan: quarter's fucking financial results from Tesla.
Ivan: Because unless there's a head fake somewhere in those numbers,
Ivan: it's going to be a monumental disaster for the company.
Ivan: Why? Because he's fucking around with a whole bunch of goddamn Nazi teenagers
Ivan: going around, pulling reports, ordering people to do shit, and none of them
Ivan: have any clue about what the fuck they're telling them to do.
Sam: Well, look, the key important part to remember on what the Trumpies are trying
Sam: to do to the government is that, of course, they're not looking to make it more efficient.
Sam: Of course, they're not looking to make it work better.
Sam: Of course, fundamentally, what they want is to break it.
Sam: They're anti-government. They want to break it. It's not about money.
Sam: It's not about deficits. It's not about any of that stuff.
Sam: It's about breaking it, with the possible exception of any parts of government
Sam: that they can directly use for their personal benefit.
Ivan: The thing is that those things and those goals will wind up hurting a lot of people.
Ivan: And I mean, it's going to happen.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: It's going to happen. It's not kind of like it's going to happen.
Sam: It's already happening.
Ivan: Like, small scale stuff. Look, what I'm talking, I'm talking about recession,
Ivan: financial crisis, kind of fucking horse shit again.
Ivan: I mean, that's the kind of level shit I'm talking about.
Sam: I mean, there, if you ramp up the firing of government employees,
Sam: you got to remember the government's a significant employer in this country. You're going to have.
Ivan: It's going to create a recession.
Sam: You're you're gonna drive up unemployment you're gonna
Sam: cause people to not spend money other folks
Sam: are gonna panic like you said it's all psychological
Sam: and this stuff builds on itself and yeah you're you're
Sam: gonna cause a recession and it's like
Sam: you know you you and when these folks came in things were actually in pretty
Sam: good shape it's like they're purposely cracking it yes yes i mean the tariffs
Sam: too for that matter yeah you know if any of them ever actually get put on and
Sam: stay on of course it's inflationary.
Ivan: Yes,
Ivan: loud kaboom.
Sam: Yes there was a loud kaboom on my side okay i don't know who knows they happen
Sam: here I don't know. Can't tell you why.
Ivan: Okay, as long as you're not worried. Okay.
Sam: I am not worried at the moment. No bullet has come through the window.
Ivan: No, that did not sound like a bullet. I've heard bullets. That sounded more like an explosion.
Sam: There are explosions here all the time. I don't know what to tell you. Okay, all right.
Sam: Unlike last time you heard an explosion while we were recording,
Sam: we determined the Seahawks had just won a game. I don't think that's the case right now.
Ivan: No, that's not. That's right. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's true.
Ivan: Yes. Yeah, there's no. Okay. All right.
Ivan: Anyway, you know, I had shared this polling data about how people reacted,
Ivan: have been reacting to this.
Ivan: You go did this, did this survey of they were doing the, you know,
Ivan: is the country on a good track, bad track bullshit thing? OK, right.
Ivan: Pretty interesting inflections that happened over the last.
Sam: Which, by the way, I've always disliked that particular. metric.
Ivan: It's a terrible metric.
Sam: Because you can be unhappy with the right track,
Sam: wrong track because you think they're not doing enough of something or they're
Sam: doing too much of something and either way you think it's wrong track. Go ahead.
Ivan: The interesting thing was just because I also always find a question also it's
Ivan: kind of like it's not, I don't think it's the right question the way it's posed.
Sam: OK, but it's useful because this this particular question has been tracked for
Sam: decades and decades and decades.
Ivan: But regardless, the one thing that was more important that I that I found with
Ivan: this was the trends that were in it.
Ivan: OK, because it did it did have, you know, it did have things that were done
Ivan: by by age group and other things and so forth.
Ivan: And it had what happened, say, since the election.
Ivan: okay and what's happened at the inaugural and
Ivan: post the election okay very interesting
Ivan: things that i saw in there about this like one thing
Ivan: was the reaction by a lot of people after
Ivan: the election okay how wrong track like uh good you know on the right track surged
Ivan: by quite a lot okay according the day before the election it was like uh let's
Ivan: see it was like somewhere in the uh 54.
Ivan: It was like you know let me see 21st
Ivan: of january 2021 54.5 to 30.5 i'm looking at on my phone because i don't another
Ivan: place to look at it where i can look at more in detail but you look at right
Ivan: after the election it dipped like like it went down to like it was like at 48
Ivan: or 42 so it was Whereas before,
Ivan: there was a 40-point gap to it.
Ivan: It closed to a 7-point gap right after the election.
Ivan: So that was a big shift in sentiment.
Ivan: Now, the one thing that I found interesting was how the move really was different by age group.
Ivan: The biggest mover in the age groups that I saw was under 30 years old.
Ivan: The under 30 years old, okay, before the election, now I finally was able to narrow it here.
Ivan: Right before the election, they were at 54.6 wrong track, 35.2 right track.
Ivan: The day after the election, it flipped 54% right track, 32% wrong track,
Ivan: right after the election. Okay?
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Now, but, but, since, you know, stuff has been happening, and especially you
Ivan: can see that after the inauguration, it started just flipping again.
Ivan: I mean, in the weeks just post the inauguration, it's like the wrong track is
Ivan: now it took like a dull it was like it seems like, according to this,
Ivan: like sometime in 30th by by December,
Ivan: by the 23rd of December, about about then late December, wrong track was back
Ivan: ahead on the young group.
Ivan: I guess, like, 40 days later, they realize, oh, fuck, okay, after the election,
Ivan: this was really bad that we voted for this clown, okay?
Ivan: So it was back to 47-38.
Ivan: Right now, it's at 49-36. So basically, the right track went down from the election day.
Ivan: From 54, they went green right track, to 36, two months later.
Ivan: I mean, it's a 20-point drop. But that under 30 group is nuts.
Ivan: It's all I can say about this right now. This fucking group is fucked up.
Ivan: Because if you look at the older groups, here's the one thing.
Ivan: The 65 group did have a change.
Ivan: It was post-election more than anything.
Ivan: It was actually post-inauguration. Where it was 67, wrong track,
Ivan: and it's dropped now to 55. Okay?
Ivan: It's still they think it's mostly wrong track But only went from 67 to 55 After
Ivan: he got he got voted 45 to 64 45.
Ivan: We were at 68% wrong track before the inauguration.
Ivan: Now it's like 50-40 still, you know, wrong track, you know, but,
Ivan: but, you know, yeah, it's like for some reason that group, you know, now 30 to 44.
Ivan: Here's the interesting thing. They went, they were.
Sam: There's an interesting thing. Go ahead.
Ivan: There's a very interesting thing about this one. They were right before inauguration.
Ivan: they had been wrong track 60 percent
Ivan: right track 30 right after the
Ivan: inauguration they went they were half of that 50 50
Ivan: 44 44 they tied it now two weeks later wrong track surged to get the 58 percent
Ivan: to 33 they're back in the other way okay so it's like that those that young
Ivan: group under 40 The volatility of how they are seeing this,
Ivan: Is ridiculously wide I guess what it looks like is that Oh my god,
Ivan: we're changing the government We're getting rid of the old guy Biden Yeah,
Ivan: yeah, yeah, Trump's gonna come in and fix it Yeah, yeah, yeah,
Ivan: then like a little bit later,
Ivan: Holy shit, what the fuck were we talking about?
Ivan: Oh my god, this is terrible Okay, so now they're going back the other way Only
Ivan: in a span of like three months.
Sam: Yeah i i think i think there are a few things there i mean one is the younger
Sam: you are the less you've seen and this is a truism but like there's been less
Sam: back and forth that is within your experience more of that massive.
Ivan: Insight so the younger you are the less you've seen really.
Sam: Okay thank you thanks sam okay yeah we're.
Ivan: Really giving the people you know the.
Sam: The point is, if it's the first new president since you've really been paying
Sam: attention, for instance, then like, oh, everything's going to change,
Sam: new president, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: Once you've been through four or five presidents.
Sam: You're like, okay, it's a new president until proven otherwise.
Sam: We assume things are going to basically be the same with a few little changes here and there.
Sam: And then of course you get Donald Trump blowing everything fucking up,
Sam: but you know where, and so I think that's part of it.
Sam: And I think part of it is like what we've talked about before,
Sam: just in terms of attention economy and people are paying attention at all or
Sam: knowing what, or understanding what they're seeing or the import of it you know you have all.
Ivan: Believing trump in his word like for example yes i mean like i don't know i
Ivan: guess in the last the chinese pay.
Sam: The tariffs right.
Ivan: The chinese pay the tariffs he was gonna he's gonna eliminate inflation on day
Ivan: one or a day what i don't know 20 something how's inflation doing sam should.
Sam: We do an egg price check.
Ivan: Yeah should we do an egg price check as a matter of fact i heard that eggs are
Ivan: at a record high right now so he he was not able They've.
Sam: Been in record highs for like at least a week, maybe two now.
Sam: I thought I saw someone say that like the average price nationwide was like
Sam: double what it was a few weeks ago.
Ivan: Correct. So so so he didn't just lower egg prices.
Ivan: And oh, by the way, how is that Palestinian?
Ivan: How is that that plan? So because many people turned on Biden because he didn't
Ivan: have the right plan to stop Israel and what they were doing in Gaza.
Ivan: How is that new plan coming, Sam?
Sam: Um, we're going to bulldoze the whole place and make all the condos.
Sam: Oh, by, by the way, based on like I had said last week, like if Donald Trump
Sam: really was at all sincere on this, he'd invite all the Palestinians to the U
Sam: S he specifically set was asked that question.
Sam: It was like, no, no, it's too far away. They, they need to go somewhere closer.
Sam: Like it's, you know, they, it wouldn't know. So yeah, no, he doesn't want any of them here.
Ivan: Oh my god you didn't want him here oh you know poor thing you know so yeah so
Ivan: I mean you know I don't know,
Ivan: he's doing what he said he was I mean he's doing what he said he was gonna do
Ivan: many people didn't believe him now all of a sudden people are realizing oh he
Ivan: is really gonna eat our faces like he said he was oh I mean shit I thought he was just kidding.
Sam: Yeah it's all bluster well and look some of it is bluster that's the thing you like what.
Ivan: No some of it is bluster but a lot of it is really hurting well and frankly even.
Sam: The thing even the things that are bluster like if he could do it he would.
Ivan: Oh yeah like.
Sam: Like you know like you could.
Ivan: Like the citizen like a birthright citizenship thing like.
Sam: Birthright citizenship like canada the 51st state Like Greenland,
Sam: like you can give all these reasons why these things might not happen,
Sam: but you like more than one person has now said like Trudeau on Canada was like,
Sam: was caught on an off mic moment this week,
Sam: basically telling people, oh yeah, Donald's completely serious about the 51st state thing.
Ivan: Well, that they should be, you know, that he said that they should be rightfully
Ivan: concerned about it. Absolutely. Yes.
Ivan: No, absolutely. They shouldn't just, like, ignore the threat. Yes.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Absolutely.
Ivan: So, I derailed you at one point. You wanted to talk about Eric Adams.
Sam: Well, I said you could do this stuff for this segment, and we can take a break,
Sam: and we'll come back and talk about that other stuff.
Sam: And I was just about to say, let's take that break.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And, you know, we'll come back. I'll start with Eric Adams and maybe a couple
Sam: other little things. We'll see back after this.
Sam: Okay, before I get to Eric Adams, I'm just noticing one piece of unconfirmed breaking news.
Ivan: Oh, God, now what?
Sam: Well, it's just weird, and maybe it's not even real.
Sam: I haven't—usually I would wait until see confirmation from somewhere else.
Sam: But what the hell, we're recording.
Sam: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's plane, which was on the way to Germany
Sam: for the Munich Security Conference, has turned around for unknown reasons.
Sam: Yeah, well, we should be happy.
Ivan: It's just a problem.
Sam: Could be anything. Mechanical issue.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Somebody threw up on the plane and they need to clean the rug. You know.
Ivan: Your shit is bad. I mean, who knows?
Sam: Probably nothing, but just still weird. Like, usually for these,
Sam: like, diplomatic flights, they're fairly, you know, it's notable when anything happens, you know?
Ivan: Okay. Well.
Sam: Okay. Anyway, Eric Adams, mayor of New York, indicted for a variety of corruption-related
Sam: stuff. I think he was doing some work for the government of Turkey.
Sam: He was taking, you know, all kinds of stuff. Basically, guy's shady as fuck, okay?
Ivan: Yes. And, you know, the— That much is certain.
Sam: Yeah. I mean, and, like, New York elected him anyway because he was anti-crime,
Sam: whatever, whatever, but, like— I mean.
Ivan: There were some questions about him, but he wasn't.
Sam: There were already questions.
Ivan: No, no, no. There were questions. There's no doubt a question.
Sam: But no answer.
Ivan: But it wasn't like there were like some clear smoking guns. He was a cop.
Ivan: He's whatever. There were some questions about some of this stuff.
Ivan: But, you know, they didn't seem to be.
Ivan: They didn't seem to reach the level of like, OK, we need to be really,
Ivan: you know. Well, he still voted me, basically. That's what I see.
Sam: So anyway, he was indicted by the Justice Department, and the court things were
Sam: still going on. But basically, he looks really guilty.
Sam: Yes. I know he has not yet been convicted by a jury of his peers.
Ivan: But look, there's been a lot of investigations around him by a lot of the local
Ivan: media that uncovered quite a lot of shady things. and he was associated with
Ivan: quite a lot of shady people.
Ivan: And it pretty much seems that, yeah, based on what we have seen,
Ivan: yeah, he looks pretty good.
Sam: Yes. So now here's the thing. Starting...
Sam: even before the inauguration, but accelerating after the inauguration,
Sam: there was talk about how Adams was trying to negotiate with Trump to get the charges dropped.
Sam: And a few days ago, Trump did indeed announce that they were dropping the charges.
Sam: And very specifically, they were going to, and by the way, the way it works,
Sam: you have to request the Judd. You have to make a request to the judge to dismiss the case.
Sam: So it's not, you know, they can't do it unilaterally.
Sam: The judge has to agree. But they were making a request specifically to dismiss
Sam: without prejudice, which means that they could bring back charges.
Ivan: By the way, update is a crack in the windshield. And there will be a point.
Sam: Ah, OK. There you go. Answer given. So presumably they're going to land and
Sam: switch planes and then he's going to go.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: No one dead?
Ivan: No.
Sam: No. Oh, well. No, that sounded wrong. Not, oh, well, like sad,
Sam: you know, too bad at that, you know. Anyway.
Sam: All the best to Mr. Rubio and his staff and other people on the plane. Okay.
Sam: Adams, so they said, we're going to do it without prejudice.
Sam: And so people started pointing out, look, what this means is essentially that
Sam: the Trump administration has leverage.
Sam: Like there's this stuff going on all over the country where they're trying to
Sam: pressure states and cities to cooperate with the immigration stuff,
Sam: you know, to help kick people out.
Sam: And now they've basically got something that says, hey, Eric Adams,
Sam: you do what the administration wants.
Sam: These charges never come back. But if, on the other hand, you don't do what we want, guess what?
Sam: We're going to charge you again.
Sam: And in the memo announcing that they were going to do these pardons,
Sam: it even explicitly said that one of the reasons is that the mayor could not
Sam: properly execute on his duties while he was under indictment and had to go to
Sam: trial and this was politically motivated.
Sam: Oh, and we will reassess whether or not to put these charges after the next
Sam: mayoral election in New York.
Sam: So, but, so it was almost explicit, right?
Sam: And, but then today we're, we're basically getting one of these Saturday night massacre situations.
Sam: Of course it's Thursday night, but the, because central department of justice
Sam: told the, you know, the, the New York AG to drop the case.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: And she wouldn't.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: She issued a long memo.
Ivan: And by the way, this is a Trump-appointed AG.
Sam: Yeah, this is an acting AG that's only been on a job a few weeks because she
Sam: was appointed by Trump to be acting during this time period.
Sam: And she refused, basically saying that there's no basis in law to drop this
Sam: and I'm not going to cooperate.
Sam: And then there's this footnote that she added. She just threw this in a footnote.
Sam: Did you read the footnote, Yvonne?
Ivan: I did not get to read the footnote. What did the footnote say?
Sam: Footnote on her message that said, by the way, I'm not going to do this.
Sam: And if you have a problem with that, I will submit my resignation.
Sam: Footnote. I attended a meeting on January 31st, 2025 with Mr.
Sam: Bove, Adams' counsel, and members of my office.
Sam: Adams' attorney repeatedly urged what amounted to a quid pro quo,
Sam: indicating that Adams would be in a position to assist with the department's
Sam: enforcement priorities only if the indictment were dismissed.
Sam: Mr. Bove admonished a member of my team who took notes during that meeting and
Sam: directed the collection of those notes at the meeting's conclusions.
Sam: So, basically, in her letter saying no, she provided witness testimony of the
Sam: fact that they were making this.
Sam: Well, at least that the quid pro quo was offered.
Ivan: Offered.
Sam: And then add that to the text of the memo itself.
Ivan: And then dismiss it without prejudice, which means, yeah, we're, yeah.
Sam: And so, she refused. Apparently, a couple other members of her staff also refused
Sam: and also resigned when asked to do this.
Sam: Then the request was sent back to Maine Justice, and I guess three more people
Sam: at Maine Justice also resigned over this.
Sam: Last I heard, which was like an hour and a half ago, we were up to six Department
Sam: of Justice attorneys refusing to do this.
Sam: and as of now the paperwork has not actually been filed to request the dismissal
Sam: of charges which makes you after all of this also wonder even if they get a
Sam: lawyer i mean i'm sure they'll eventually fire enough people they'll get the judge.
Ivan: Will dismiss it because the one thing is the judge may go and just say fuck
Ivan: you know this is not being dismissed which.
Sam: They can do and they can also appoint somebody else to be the prosecutor correct
Sam: yes like that that has happened in a couple of cases before where the government
Sam: has it's very unusual from what i understand and i think yeah but this.
Ivan: Is this but this but this is a kind of situation that.
Sam: Basically and i'm not i'm not sure yeah i'm not sure i've heard of it happening
Sam: in criminal charges i know i've had it's happened in civil cases i've.
Ivan: Heard it in criminal charges.
Sam: Okay yeah,
Sam: So, so yeah, I I'm thinking like the judge is going to be like, screw you.
Sam: I read all this stuff, you know, because, because even the memo from Pam Bondi
Sam: or whatever, saying that they were going to do this specifically said,
Sam: this is not because of the law or the facts. This is because of this other stuff.
Sam: And, and so like, so I don't know what,
Sam: what's interesting here is that this is one of the first cases where we're seeing
Sam: this level of resistance to the Trump orders from Trumpies.
Sam: Like you said, this was a Trump nominee.
Sam: She apparently has the acting New York AG, whatever her title was,
Sam: was apparently full of conservative credentials.
Sam: She clerked for Scalia. She's on the Federalist Society.
Sam: She's like, blah, blah, blah. All of the things you could see.
Sam: And she's still like, no, no.
Ivan: But look, man, I mean, it's one of those things where Trump is not surrounding
Ivan: himself with conservatives.
Sam: No.
Ivan: He is surrounding himself with criminals. If you're a criminal, you're a friend.
Ivan: I mean, he went and he pardoned Blagojevic, okay?
Sam: Yes. who he commuted previously four years ago.
Ivan: And now he fully pardoned, okay?
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: You know, now he wants to pardon Adams. He pardoned all the J6ers.
Ivan: He pardoned a whole bunch of other fucking criminals.
Ivan: I mean, it's people that were out and out fucking criminals.
Ivan: And just because, hey, if you're a criminal, you're with me. We're in a crime family.
Sam: Yes. I mean, there's so many moves here that are directly related to enabling corruption.
Ivan: Jesus Christ, talk about, you want to talk about, and I was talking about this
Ivan: week, a move to enable corruption.
Ivan: It's this whole thing where they ordered the DOJ to not investigate violations
Ivan: of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Which is basically the act that makes it that people that work at multinational
Ivan: companies doing business in other countries cannot go and bribe foreign government officials.
Ivan: You cannot. And if you do so, you will be prosecuted in the United States.
Ivan: I had a boss of mine that was prosecuted and jailed for FCPA violations. Okay.
Sam: All right. And by the way, this is not like a new law that came up under Biden
Sam: or something. This has been a long time.
Ivan: It was from the 70s.
Sam: Okay?
Ivan: Many people I know have been investigated and gone to jail for this,
Ivan: okay? Companies have been investigated.
Ivan: But here is the thing about this. The fact that they order to not prosecute
Ivan: doesn't mean the law is gone.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: So what does that make? So what creates is a situation where,
Ivan: If you are a company that is friends with this administration,
Ivan: you can go to try to earn business in another country.
Ivan: You can feel probably free to provide any of the bribes that you want to earn that business.
Ivan: And you will not be prosecuted. Hell, you'll probably be pardoned,
Ivan: even if you just in case, just to cover your tracks.
Ivan: OK, and if you're a competitor of them and try to offer the same money,
Ivan: you might wind up being the one being prosecuted because you're going against
Ivan: it because you're going against the guy that wants that they want to win the business.
Sam: Right. Because it can be completely selective.
Ivan: Exactly. So this is this is an it just creates an insane situation.
Ivan: I mean, all I know is that anybody, look, I know that I'm not,
Ivan: I, listen, if I'm an employee of a company that is under, you know,
Ivan: that does this, I mean, I would be,
Ivan: look, I don't care that they're not being prosecuted.
Ivan: And I can't, we can't be involved in this, but the reality is that there will
Ivan: be companies that will completely disregard this because they have gone to Mar-a-Lago
Ivan: many times and wine and dine them and whatever,
Ivan: and they feel confident that, you know, they're not going to be prosecuted.
Ivan: And so, therefore, they will go all out, basically pay off anybody they got
Ivan: to get the business, and their competitors can't do anything about it.
Ivan: This is the kind of Robert Barron capitalism that we haven't had in this country
Ivan: for really more for 100 years at that level.
Sam: And by the way, the one thing you mentioned, the Farah law or whatever,
Sam: is only one of like half a dozen examples of them eliminating groups that do
Sam: enforcement of these things.
Sam: Or telling them not to. Or openly saying, well, this is how we're going to do it.
Sam: I mean, the stupid Adams thing that we started this conversation.
Sam: Right. How this is like as blatant a corruption is okay with us.
Sam: As long as you do what we want, what we want you to message as you possibly can do.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: You know? And so I expect more like, you know, it's just blatant and open.
Sam: And this is something that has been part of Donald's modus operandi for years and years and years.
Sam: He refined it some during his first presidency, but he'd been doing it even before,
Sam: is that if you do the crime out in the open, then just people are like,
Sam: oh, well, he did that, I guess.
Sam: I guess it must be okay. Like, if it was wrong, he'd be hiding it.
Sam: But instead, it is completely about like, hey, no, yes, I'm doing quid pro quos.
Sam: That's just how you do business. That's how it should be.
Sam: That's how it should be. You know, if you want something from me,
Sam: you give me something, you know?
Ivan: By the way, apparently this news at 6 o'clock Eastern had come out on inflation,
Ivan: just a newsflash. Wholesale prices also in January rose by a,
Ivan: way higher number than expected so.
Sam: Okay so moving away from
Sam: uh corruption for a minute or to a different kind of corruption uh
Sam: we we we mentioned musk's kid
Sam: in the oval office but let's talk
Sam: about that whole thing for a little bit because i was
Sam: i was actually listening to like last week's show and i
Sam: said something about how yeah musk was doing xyz
Sam: and he was tweeting and stuff but he wasn't as much like
Sam: you know on tv and stuff and then
Sam: like right after we put out that show he
Sam: goes and like has this media thing
Sam: in the oval office donald trump like
Sam: basically introduces him and says like okay elon's gonna
Sam: talk now and then donald trump just sits there
Sam: while elon talks for like 90 minutes or something wasn't
Sam: that long maybe not quite but it was a long
Sam: time it was like at least
Sam: more than half an hour i think it was like 45 minutes or something
Sam: i i'm making shit up i'm pulling numbers out of my ass so it was long let's
Sam: just say that it was a long time i there were there were uh people like covering
Sam: on the news going like is he still talking he's still talking i guess he's still talking i didn't watch.
Ivan: It but but.
Sam: Well obviously i didn't watch it either. But, you know, from the highlights,
Sam: I mean, he's doing the same kind of bullshit Trump does.
Sam: And Elon does it too. He's known for it.
Sam: Like making stuff up, telling, I mean, he was called on one of the things that
Sam: came out of his effort that had spread all over the right-wing media ecosystem,
Sam: including Donald Trump saying it himself,
Sam: was this whole thing about one of the things USAID doing being spending $50
Sam: million for condoms to Gaza.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Turns out there were condoms,
Sam: But it was going to a different Gaza. There's a Gaza province in Mozambique.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: Okay. Now, I think the 50 million number was wrong, too, because it was condoms
Sam: to a larger area. Yeah, because that's how.
Sam: And, like, Elon, when asked about this, there were a couple things he said.
Sam: One was, well, you know, I'm going to make mistakes.
Sam: I'll correct them when I find them. But, you know, I'll make mistakes occasionally.
Sam: That's okay. But I don't understand why we're buying condoms for anybody.
Sam: And of course, it's part of the anti-AIDS program.
Sam: It's part of the program to reduce the spread of AIDS.
Sam: And of course, nobody in this, not that they would care anyway that it was about
Sam: reducing the spread of AIDS, but there's not even looking at things deeply enough to know that.
Sam: They've got the wrong physical location. They've got the wrong number.
Sam: They understand, oh, condoms were bought. They don't understand why.
Sam: They didn't even bother to look into it, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Sam: And you could make an argument that says, okay, maybe we shouldn't be buying
Sam: condoms as part of an anti-AIDS effort in Southern Africa.
Sam: You could make that argument. I would probably disagree with you and say it's
Sam: actually a good use of money. but you could make that argument in a,
Sam: in a honest way. They're not even close to that.
Sam: They're just like, they don't know. They're just, they're just like,
Sam: Oh, look at this number. This is funny.
Sam: And this doesn't make sense. And so we'll, we'll, we'll make a stink about it
Sam: without even looking into it.
Sam: But the thing is with, you know, not Elon took over the Oval Office for that time period.
Sam: Donald Trump was just sitting there twiddling his freaking thumbs.
Sam: Musk was pontificating. Musk, as I think Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC pointed
Sam: out, he also sort of exerted his influence by the fact that he dressed down. He was not in a suit.
Sam: He did sort of the billionaire casual sort of thing.
Sam: He brought his kid in and brought his kid in in a way where he just let his
Sam: kid run around and say stuff and tell the president he wasn't really the president.
Sam: All of these are sort of power dominance moves.
Sam: I'm going to come in there without a suit, I'm going to come in there without
Sam: a kid, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it.
Ivan: With a kid.
Sam: With a kid. With, you know, yes. With a kid who's not being,
Sam: like, politely behaved, by the way.
Sam: Like, there are appropriate places to bring kids to the White House.
Sam: I mean, you know, there's all kinds of pictures of all presidents going back,
Sam: as long as there were photographs, of kids in the White House doing stuff with the president.
Ivan: You know, I'm sure Elon knows this. Donald Trump doesn't really like kids.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Either.
Sam: Yes. The only thing he could have done worse than bringing a kid would be to bring a dog.
Ivan: Right. He doesn't like dogs either. So, you know, bringing an eagle,
Ivan: like, you know, that eagle that he had that picture of that scared the shit
Ivan: out of him at his office, you know, Trump Tower.
Sam: So here's the thing, Yvonne. What do you think is going on with this dynamic?
Sam: Because we talked even before Inauguration Day about how eventually this Donald
Sam: Elon thing is going to break.
Ivan: I think that right now he sees them as useful because the reality is so much.
Sam: Donald thinks Elon is useful or the other way around.
Ivan: Donald thinks that Elon is useful because who's taking the heat for most of
Ivan: this right now for all the doge stuff for all the government like stuff for.
Ivan: And by the way, stuff that that shit is popular with his base.
Ivan: They owe, you know, all these lazy federal federal employees.
Ivan: You know, we need to get rid of these bastards. too many of them, you know?
Sam: Yeah, it's one of those things, and this goes back to the, I'll talk a little
Sam: bit more about this in a second, but it all comes down to process versus results
Sam: versus appearance kind of stuff. Right.
Sam: You know, because the thing that his base loves is the, yeah,
Sam: we hate government, kill government, kill the waste, like eliminate.
Sam: Oh, let's get rid of the Department of Education. What good could that possibly
Sam: be? Let's get rid of USAID.
Sam: What good could it possibly be? which is entirely separate from a couple of
Sam: weeks later, the farmers figure out no one's buying their crops anymore.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: You know, because the dots are not connected.
Ivan: They're not connecting the dots. Right. They're not connecting dots until they get screwed.
Sam: So, so let me talk about this process versus results versus appearance thing for a second.
Sam: And I know we've, we've touched on things like this before, but specifically
Sam: what got me this week is like, look, there, Donald Trump is losing more court cases every day.
Sam: While we've been sitting here, I saw a news alert about some judge saying that
Sam: the foreign aid stuff had to resume. They had been frozen.
Sam: But he's losing more cases every day. And a lot of this is because he is trying to just...
Sam: Bull in a China shop kind of thing. Just do stuff. Don't worry about the process.
Sam: That'll all work out later.
Sam: But I realize this goes with the tariffs and how he won against Colombia and
Sam: Mexico and Canada the other week with tariffs, even though he didn't actually get anything,
Sam: is that the perception among, what did we call them, low information voters,
Sam: is just that there's action.
Sam: and he's doing stuff and he won in the end, like the details never get through.
Sam: Whereas the process stuff, like, you know, there, and I think this was a fundamental
Sam: problem with the Democrats during the election season, when they,
Sam: when they pivoted to, he's a danger to democracy.
Sam: And even now, when, when you hear people complain, like,
Sam: well, Elon doesn't actually have the authority to do that is that a lot of people
Sam: just hear, so wait, you're just complaining about the way he did it?
Sam: Like, you agree that we should get rid of waste and corruption,
Sam: right? You're just complaining that Elon's doing it wrong?
Sam: Who cares that Donald Trump is doing it wrong, that Elon is doing it wrong?
Sam: What matters is he's doing stuff and he's going to fix the problem.
Sam: Now, whether or not he actually fixes the problem is a separate issue.
Sam: But I think fundamentally, like a lot of people.
Sam: Like if you start talking about, well, he's just not following the right process,
Sam: they completely tune that out.
Sam: And I think the whole democracy thing was that it's like, that's just the process.
Sam: What about what you're trying to, what he's trying to do, What are the results?
Sam: And, and, you know, and I think one of Trump's master strokes of realization,
Sam: besides realizing how many people were racist and sexist,
Sam: was figuring out that, like, it's, it's all about it.
Sam: It's all about no one cares about process, the number of people who really and
Sam: truly care about process to the point where they will depend,
Sam: defend the process vigorously, even if it results in something they don't like. is very small.
Sam: Most people view process only instrumentally.
Sam: We like the process because it helps us get what we want.
Sam: And if it doesn't help us get what we want, then we don't like the process.
Sam: And the process is a problem, and we should figure out how to get around it.
Sam: So the number of people who sort of on a principled level care about having
Sam: a good process is vanishingly small.
Sam: And meanwhile, what gets through the media ecosystem, especially like when you add in, you know,
Sam: sort of the motivated media ecosystem is just action are.
Ivan: They doing something are they doing something yeah and that's and what's our first impression.
Sam: So like if he if his first impression is like oh he was really tough on them
Sam: he put on the sanctions the fact that like less than.
Ivan: 24 hours later he undid it.
Sam: All and without getting any real.
Ivan: Concessions and he claims the win anyway i'm
Ivan: seeing a whole bunch of people like posting about getting
Ivan: laid off support fire getting fired for
Ivan: cause okay uh you know
Ivan: terminations like at the federal government i
Ivan: was looking at somebody to post something about being at the usda and
Ivan: four out of five people in the area got fired for cause listen
Ivan: uh for cause you know termination
Ivan: like that the federal government isn't just something that happens in one day
Ivan: there's a there is a process documentation not all
Ivan: of this shit whatever all of these things if you take them
Ivan: to even the shittiest labor lawyer okay
Ivan: all right they will go to court they will win this
Ivan: case okay it's not even it's a slam dunk
Ivan: of a win but like you said he is going to put them through that he's going to
Ivan: put them through that he's going to make them go to court he's going to make
Ivan: them get their money and and it'll probably wind of costing a federal government
Ivan: a ton more money instead of like them having to do something like with the law, working with Congress.
Ivan: Figuring out how to cut employees.
Ivan: Somebody was talking about that Bill Clinton together with Newt Greenwich back
Ivan: in the 90s. They actually cut like a few hundred thousand federal employees.
Ivan: Okay. You know, they did it, but they agreed to it. There was a process.
Ivan: How are we going to do this? Blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: But that's not what we have right now. This is not thought out, planned, whatever.
Ivan: This is just, you know, we'll fire them now, we'll deal with the consequences later, sue us.
Sam: Right. Yeah. And also news alerts while we've been recording.
Sam: I saw some with some additional, like, another thousand people at the VA were
Sam: cut, apparently, today. Got their notices.
Sam: I don't know if it was for cause or what excuse they used this time.
Sam: You know, but, you know, it's just boom, boom, boom.
Sam: There's more of this. And like you said, small, tiny numbers compared to the
Sam: overall federal workforce, even more so according to the deficit.
Ivan: Yeah, the VA, which we know has been historically an area that has been super
Ivan: overfunded because veterans have been getting such great care from the federal
Ivan: government that definitely that's a place where they need to cut.
Sam: Exactly.
Ivan: And I mean, if there's a group of people have gotten fucked in this country, it's veterans.
Sam: Mm hmm.
Sam: Yeah. Okay. One, one more thing and then let's wrap it up so you can go to sleep.
Sam: I just wanted to mention that we did have, how do you say his name? Hogarth.
Sam: Hogarth. The secretary of defense guy.
Ivan: Hagseth. Is it Hagseth?
Sam: Yeah, Hagseth.
Ivan: Whatever the fuck his name is. Okay.
Sam: Whatever. Anyway.
Ivan: Hogarth? I don't know.
Sam: Uh-uh. Wow. I had an H. I was good enough.
Ivan: You didn't start with an H. Okay.
Sam: Anyway, he apparently, he was in Europe talking about the Ukraine situation
Sam: and about Europe more generally.
Sam: The key elements he said is he explicitly, this had been implied for a long
Sam: time, but he very explicitly said that, you know, going back to pre-2014 borders
Sam: for Ukraine is not going to happen.
Sam: He explicitly said Ukraine being in NATO is not going to happen.
Sam: and he he basically laid all that out and look we've been we've been talking that's probably true,
Sam: even without that even without him saying that but he's basically kick-starting
Sam: the negotiations with russia that they're going to force ukraine into by saying
Sam: right off the bat you know those those things aren't even on the table you know which is a dumb.
Ivan: Negotiating stance to start from But by the way, they're doing this without
Ivan: Ukraine being at the fucking table.
Sam: Exactly. Ukraine is not even at the table. They are negotiating.
Sam: The Trump administration.
Ivan: Which is another fucking. I mean, and I'm like, okay.
Sam: They're doing the same thing they did like in Israel about the Palestinians
Sam: where like in the first administration when they did the Abraham Accords or
Sam: whatever, didn't even ask the Palestinians. Didn't talk to them at all.
Sam: You know, we're going to make a deal about you without you. And that's what
Sam: they're doing so far with Ukraine
Sam: too. Apparently, he's going to talk to Zelensky tomorrow or something.
Sam: But, you know, but they're starting out this process clearly with the mode of, look,
Sam: Russia and the U.S. are going to carve this up how they want and then just tell
Sam: the Ukrainians that they have to deal with it.
Sam: The other thing that he said at that same conversation was he went further than that and said,
Sam: Europe is going to have to get
Sam: used to the idea that their primary defense does not come from the U.S.
Ivan: Listen, he is basically trying to put a stake in the heart of NATO.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: So he said that, you know, there are going to be in NATO, but at the same time,
Ivan: I'm like, I mean, is NATO going to survive this administration?
Sam: I mean, Trump has said repeatedly he wants to leave NATO. He thinks it's a useless organization.
Sam: And his current thing is he's trying to push them to go from a target of 3%
Sam: of GDP spending on defense to 5% now.
Ivan: Where we're not even at that!
Sam: Where we're not even with that. And of course he keeps, maybe he's slightly better.
Sam: He keeps saying that it's the amount they have to pay, the dues they have to
Sam: pay. Or that's not how it works.
Ivan: That is complete horse shit. I mean, we're not even at that.
Ivan: We're like at 3.3% ourselves.
Sam: But wait, Ivan. He's going to cut it in half.
Ivan: Right, so he wants to take us down to 1.5!
Sam: Well, if we're not defending Europe anymore, why do we need that?
Ivan: I guess.
Sam: I mean, and look, there are a lot of reasons that, you know,
Sam: look, maybe it would have been smart for Europe to be doing more of their own
Sam: defense for a long time, maybe.
Sam: But at the same time, like the whole thing with all of this is like,
Sam: There's no sense of the history of it at all or the reasons that was in place in the first place.
Ivan: No.
Sam: You know, all of this was set up post-World War II, not just to defend against the Soviet Union.
Ivan: But against everybody else.
Sam: I remember to say Soviet Union instead of Russia because we were talking about the past there.
Sam: But no, but also to tame Europe itself.
Sam: Yeah. You know, Europe had— From all the fucking wars! At two major world wars
Sam: in the 20th century, and if you go back to the 19th or 18th century,
Sam: there were wars all the time.
Ivan: There were wars all the time.
Sam: And the time period from World War II until the invasion of Ukraine by Russia
Sam: was the longest period of peace in that continent in centuries ever, probably.
Ivan: Ever. I'm sure.
Sam: Maybe Roman Empire times. I don't know.
Ivan: Maybe, maybe. There was that Pax Romana.
Sam: Pax Romana. Yeah. So there were reasons for this.
Sam: The same thing we were talking about, USAID being sort of the soft diplomacy stuff.
Sam: The existence of NATO and all of the arrangements there that we had and,
Sam: you know, help to stabilize the continent.
Sam: And, you know, if we're saying, if we essentially end up saying,
Sam: okay, we're done with NATO, we're out of here, you guys are on your own.
Sam: It's just inviting. I mean, I don't know if Putin would be crazy enough to go
Sam: after the Baltics or to invade more countries.
Sam: Certainly, he's going to lick his wounds for a while after Ukraine,
Sam: because that, like, in the end, that has not worked out great for him.
Sam: But if we end up saying, okay,
Sam: you can keep part of Ukraine and we're clearly retreating from Europe,
Sam: is it going to embolden him for whatever the next thing is? I don't know.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: You know? And if the end result of this is Europe itself militarizing further,
Sam: which is already happening, is that good?
Sam: You know? I don't think so. Anyway.
Sam: I think that's it, Yvonne. I mean, it's short, but it's late for you. We should let you go.
Sam: Unless you have something else that we missed that you want to make sure we hit.
Ivan: No, no, but I do have my one thing. Okay.
Sam: The Slack. Oh, okay. Yes.
Ivan: Okay. Well, you know, we're all concerned about our investments.
Ivan: And I think I mentioned recently that I was buying gold.
Ivan: Okay. Because of my concerns, which I did do that.
Ivan: One thing that came in the news.
Ivan: global funds turned to Pakistan as an 84% stock rally set to an extent.
Ivan: Some of the world's top money managers are once again favoring Pakistani stocks
Ivan: after market returns last year were among the best globally. So, Sam?
Sam: Put it all in Pakistan.
Ivan: All our money.
Sam: All our money. But I already put it all in Trump coin.
Ivan: Well, I saw here somewhere. I have bad news for you.
Ivan: uh if i read over here correctly i can't remember what the losses were but they
Ivan: were talking about over here i mean 80 percent losses and like people that invested
Ivan: in the trump coin so i'm sorry it's.
Sam: Okay i'm gonna shift it all over to the hawk to a coin and make it all back.
Ivan: That way go up right now it's already plunged like 90 nobody knows where hawk
Ivan: to what is do you realize that after I thought she resurfaced a couple of days ago. Did she?
Sam: I thought so, but I could be wrong.
Ivan: Maybe? I don't know. But she basically took the money and just disappeared.
Ivan: And you know what? She really got a whole bunch of crypto bros for all money.
Ivan: And so I'm like, I hear what I hear is here something in the news was that Hawk
Ivan: Tua's girl boyfriend wants money back after MeanCoin Fallout that's the one story I'm seeing,
Ivan: so I see that that her ex-boyfriend apparently,
Ivan: there was something in the news about it but not that she appeared it's that
Ivan: her ex-boyfriend Hawk Tua girl's boyfriend wants money backed after MeanCoin
Ivan: Fallout That's the news story I found right now when I Googled her.
Ivan: Not that she reappeared.
Ivan: It's that also apparently probably someone of these.
Ivan: Oh, no, no, there it is six days ago. Off to a girl, Hayley Winsch breaks her
Ivan: two-month silence and addresses her cryptocurrency scandal. There she is.
Sam: There?
Ivan: Yeah, there you go. So, yes. I think she apologized.
Sam: I mean, basically her excuse, which I completely buy, is that, like,
Sam: She didn't know what she was doing. She was manipulated into it by all these
Sam: crypto folks around her trying to do this.
Ivan: I totally, I 100% believe.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I 100% believe.
Sam: And meanwhile, like if you get that moment of fame from your viral moment,
Sam: absolutely cash in in every fucking way you can.
Ivan: Yeah. And just, you know, whatever. I mean, you know, look, I'm pretty sure
Ivan: she didn't know anything about Quaint. they put it here to her.
Ivan: She got some money and then these people screwed everybody and she's like,
Ivan: well, what the fuck? I didn't even do this. I didn't even understand what the fuck was going on.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: I believe that.
Sam: Anyway, that was the thing you usually do after I tell people to go to the website.
Sam: I'll tell people to go to the website now.
Sam: curmudgeons-corner.com There you can find all the ways to contact us.
Sam: You can find our archives and our transcripts.
Sam: We have not made the curmudgeons coin.
Ivan: You know, we should make one. I mean, what the hell? Why not?
Sam: I know. And then we have to orchestrate the rug pull correctly.
Sam: I mean, that's, you know, that's what these are for, right?
Ivan: But you're not supposed to be saying that up front.
Sam: Oh, oh, but if we say it up front and just tell everybody right up front,
Sam: then it's not fraud, right?
Ivan: Well, that is true. Yes. I mean, the reality is that we're telling you that we're doing it.
Ivan: so basically we're adopting the trump like strategy hey i'm.
Sam: Telling you.
Ivan: That i'm gonna fuck you over so oh there you go so why are you surprised.
Sam: Exactly so anyway you
Sam: can find all that stuff there you can also find a link to our patreon where
Sam: you can give us money for us to invest in trump coin and hawk to a girl coin
Sam: and uh you know that that's that's what we'll do yeah So give us more Patreon money.
Ivan: No, no, no. Pakistan. What are you talking about?
Sam: Oh, yes, Pakistan.
Ivan: What are you talking about? I'm going to have you in Pakistan.
Sam: Can we invest in Pakistani stocks denominated in Trump coins?
Ivan: You know what? I'd have to research that one. I'm not sure.
Sam: Oh, well. Okay. I think we're done here.
Ivan: I'm done. At this point, if I am able to fall asleep right away,
Ivan: I'll have a beautiful four and a half hours of sleep.
Sam: Beautiful. Okay. We're letting you go. Thanks, everybody, for joining us.
Sam: Stay safe. Have a great week. We will talk to you next time.
Sam: Goodbye. Let us know if you like shows this length. Maybe we should do this
Sam: more often. Anyway, bye! Bye.
Sam: Okay, that be it. I'm hitting stop. Go to sleep, Yvonne.