Sam: Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Friday, December 27th, 2024.
Sam: It is just after 3.30 UTC.
Sam: I'm Sam Inter, Yvonne Bow is here, and this is our annual prediction show.
Sam: So in just a moment, we're going to start making predictions for 2025.
Sam: For anybody new, the rules are they have to be things that actually happen in
Sam: 2025 so that the first week of 2026, we'll know if we got it right or not,
Sam: because this week we're doing predictions for 2025.
Sam: And next week, we'll be reviewing our predictions for 2024 and seeing how we did.
Sam: So we've done this for a number of years now, and we divide it into sections,
Sam: politics, international, economy, technology, and hodgepodge.
Sam: And I think, Yvonne, we should just jump right in we always tell ourselves at
Sam: the beginning just make the damn prediction and move on because when we start
Sam: discussing them we go really really long oh.
Ivan: Because we're we have a problem about going off on tangents yes.
Sam: We do okay yeah okay so
Sam: as i've mentioned on the show the
Sam: last couple weeks we had a google doc set up where people made suggestions
Sam: ed bruce and
Sam: john added suggestions to our page and then
Sam: and then i added a few of my own and
Sam: one thing that's different this time like other times i've gone back to the
Sam: previous year's predictions blah blah blah and used them as inspiration for
Sam: what we should predict this time i didn't do that this time i didn't even look
Sam: at last year's stuff yet i just went through and thought what do i want to add
Sam: so if i missed anything to the.
Ivan: Politics we have no real big elections to predict for example so that clears the slate on that,
Ivan: And, you know, so, so this year is a little bit different in that perspective,
Ivan: right? You know, political predictions are every.
Sam: Every other year has a whole bunch of election predictions, like either presidential or the midterms.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Yeah. But when none, none of that this year, it's just sort of like,
Sam: how are things going? I guess.
Sam: Anyway, shall we jump right in, Yvonne, or do you have any other preambles you
Sam: want to get out of the way?
Ivan: I don't want a preamble. i i i'm still running a hospital here i i can't no no no no preambling.
Sam: Okay and if the if yvonne
Sam: has to pause at any moment we will pause and
Sam: continue as needed okay so first
Sam: up front but first thing is politics and first
Sam: sort of subsection of that is presidential and the
Sam: very first suggestion is from ed who wants to know how long will trump keep
Sam: musk as an advisor for doge and i i'll generalize this how long will he keep
Sam: on his invite you know i don't know answer this how you wish i don't think i.
Ivan: I i think that i will be it doesn't he will not fill he would not he will not last the year.
Sam: Okay that that might be any more specific no no.
Ivan: No no i think that at some point before i'm gonna be broader on my prediction just you know trying.
Sam: To because you usually get yourself in trouble being super person exactly so.
Ivan: I will say that by december 31st he will no longer be such and i don't want to go into a tangent so.
Sam: I'm afraid.
Ivan: From talking about what's been going on right now.
Sam: So i'll give you a prediction i'll say that it's,
Sam: first of all i i'll say it won't be it won't be one of these deals where trump
Sam: like fires him via tweet or something although that would be really amusing
Sam: with musk now owner owning no no no.
Ivan: Trump will put it as a truth.
Sam: Yeah as a truth but no i don't think either of those will happen i think it
Sam: will be more like Trump will make it increasingly clear that he's not paying
Sam: attention to Musk anymore.
Sam: And Musk can continue doing whatever the hell he's doing, but Trump will ridicule
Sam: him or ignore him or something like that.
Ivan: I mean...
Ivan: god so so let me see maybe
Ivan: because now of course will he be an advisor what you
Ivan: know what does that even yeah yeah yeah this is okay
Ivan: so what what i'm right now
Ivan: basically musk is like at at
Ivan: trump's side like constantly okay right
Ivan: i mean you know he went to a football game he was there with him he's a mar-a-lago
Ivan: he was talking to jeff trump was talking to jeff bezos and he's like also jeff
Ivan: bezos turns and i said fuck how did you get in here you know that kind of stuff um you know,
Ivan: i i just i'm trying to define the line where all of a sudden he's not like his
Ivan: advisor and it's a little bit uh this is what i'm saying i think it'll be fuzzier.
Sam: Than that rather than.
Ivan: Yeah, that's why I'm like, you know, right. I mean, it could be an outright
Ivan: declaration. I mean, because it's happened before.
Ivan: I mean, Trump has very quickly turned on certain people.
Sam: He absolutely has.
Ivan: So that's very possible. And so I guess, you know, no, I don't.
Sam: I think to summarize your prediction, by the end of the year,
Sam: it will be incredibly obvious that Elon has a lot less influence than he did
Sam: at the beginning of the year.
Ivan: Okay. Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll, yeah, yeah.
Ivan: Or he's not really driving, like, you know, he's no longer in the,
Ivan: appearing at every event that, that, you know, Trump is at, basically.
Sam: And I'll say, I'll just be a little bit more aggressive and say that that will
Sam: be incredibly obvious by the end of June. You know.
Ivan: I think that that is, you know, that is the, uh.
Sam: And by then, if it happens in January, I'm still right.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. I think that's fair, but I'm giving myself that sometime by the
Ivan: end of the year, because I don't want to be that precise.
Sam: Okay. And by the way, on Doge specifically, there were reports earlier today,
Sam: even that Ramaswamy is in trouble too.
Sam: Like Trump's not happy with him.
Ivan: Listen, let's be honest. I mean, Trump eventually, I mean, there's been almost
Ivan: no advisor that survived Trump. Almost. Almost.
Ivan: You know, so.
Sam: Okay. Anyway.
Ivan: Anyway.
Sam: Let's move on.
Ivan: Yes, please.
Sam: Let's move on. Another from Ed. Will legislation to privatize the USPS,
Sam: the Postal Service, be introduced?
Sam: And if it is, will it pass both houses? I'll start on this one.
Ivan: There is no way in hell that this is happening.
Sam: Here's what I was going to say. It will probably be introduced because I suspect
Sam: this is one of those things that gets introduced every time.
Sam: But you're right.
Ivan: Has it been introduced?
Sam: Well, introduced has a very, very low bar, right?
Sam: All it takes is one member dropping something into the bucket,
Sam: essentially, and it doesn't usually go anywhere. I don't know. I could be wrong.
Ivan: Let's be clear. I mean, the one thing is.
Sam: It doesn't have.
Ivan: But.
Sam: Maybe not. Maybe not. I'm trying to remember. I think it has to do a little
Sam: bit more to get an HR number.
Ivan: You know, or I know that because the USPS isn't just a creation coming from,
Ivan: you know, a legislative, you know, legislation.
Ivan: I mean, the USPS part of it is it's it doesn't it's not that it's created in the Constitution.
Sam: The Constitution specifically says that one of the things the legislature is
Sam: authorized to do is set up a post.
Ivan: Yeah, exactly. Exactly, and regulate it as well.
Sam: And regulate it.
Ivan: Let me put my- And let me see. I looked it up to make sure. Establish post office and post room.
Ivan: regulate the mail system, designate certain materials as non-mailable,
Ivan: criminalize abuses of the postal system, protect the mails.
Ivan: I mean, it's pretty broad.
Ivan: Mandates are related to this. And I find it very difficult to privately manage.
Sam: Let me say this. My version of my prediction.
Ivan: Oh my God, again, we're in a mandate. Okay, no, it's not. But listen,
Ivan: there is no fucking way in hell the post office is being privatized at the year 2025.
Sam: No, no.
Ivan: End the discussion.
Sam: Let me say what I was going to say. I will not make a prediction on will legislation
Sam: be introduced because it could not be.
Sam: But you are absolutely right. It will not pass both houses if it is.
Sam: There is no way legislation to do that will pass both houses of Congress.
Ivan: Billion years.
Sam: Now, could there be additional executive action to reduce what the Postal Service is doing?
Sam: Sure, but that's different from privatizing the whole damn thing.
Sam: And to some degree, actually, it's semi-privatized already. It is not a governmental
Sam: agency. It is funded in part.
Sam: It's got a weird quasi relationship. Anyway, moving on.
Ivan: Postal workers are federal work.
Sam: Yes. But it's got this weird quasi-status where- Yeah.
Ivan: But it's postal workers or federal workers. Okay.
Sam: There will not, we both agree, there will not be legislation to further privatize
Sam: the post office that passes both houses of Congress in 2025. Moving on.
Ivan: Moving on.
Sam: This one's from John. Will Trump's inauguration crowd size be bigger or smaller than 2016? team.
Ivan: You know, I think it's going to be bigger. I, for whatever the hell reason,
Ivan: I don't know why this is right now, but I'm seeing more Trump stickers now than before the election.
Ivan: Oh, so you're noticing this too?
Sam: I haven't noticed this specifically, but I'm not surprised.
Sam: Like one of the things we talked about pre-election was that there was a distinctly,
Sam: obviously less enthusiasm than 2016.
Sam: But he won anyway, and he got more votes than 2016.
Sam: But will the inauguration be bigger?
Sam: My prediction, you're saying yes, it will be bigger.
Sam: My prediction will be it will be smaller, but Trump will claim it's bigger,
Sam: and of course Trump will also claim it's the biggest inauguration ever of all time.
Ivan: Of all time. but I think straight up it will be bigger I just think that I don't know if,
Ivan: these guys are just i don't know right now they're kind of all excited i keep
Ivan: hearing how they are excited like you know about how musk is going to fix everything
Ivan: it's one of the things i heard this week he's going to fix the water he's going
Ivan: to fix the water in california sam with.
Sam: The big faucet from canada.
Ivan: Yes i.
Sam: Remember i remember the big.
Ivan: Faucet yeah for the big faucet yeah yeah big faucet yeah okay.
Sam: Next up from bruce will trump use recess opponents for opponent.
Ivan: Recess appointment i like that question can we can we answer that question first will.
Sam: Trump use recess appointments for any cabinet positions i'm gonna say no because he won't need to.
Ivan: I don't think i don't think he will you know i don't think he will need to i
Ivan: i think either he's you know i don't think he'll I think they.
Sam: Got gates to drop out and the Republican Senate will pretty much approve everybody else.
Sam: Like there are a couple that are on the edge, but I think even if they're in
Sam: trouble, I, you know, I don't think they'll.
Ivan: They'll, they'll substitute. They'll figure it out.
Sam: They'll come up right.
Ivan: Yeah they'll come up.
Sam: With yeah rather than doing recess
Sam: appointments because the recess appointment also congress has to cooperate and
Sam: surprisingly both the senate and the house seem to have pushed back when trump
Sam: wanted to push that way of doing things he wanted them to just go into recess
Sam: immediately after his inauguration and let him do everything with recess appointments and they're like nah no.
Ivan: We're not doing that shit yeah.
Sam: So okay moving on From Bruce, will all cabinet positions be filled and Senate
Sam: approved by October 1st, which is the end of the fiscal year? I'll say yes.
Ivan: Yeah, by October 1st, sure. Yeah, I'll go with that. Yes.
Sam: Okay. Now, Ed says, oh, okay, this is kind of duplicate.
Sam: I didn't realize it, and I kind of duplicated this later.
Sam: But how many of the cabinet approved appointments will be released before the
Sam: 1st of January 2025? So within, within, no, not, okay, that doesn't make sense. Maybe it means 2026.
Sam: Like, I think what this means, the wording is confusing me a little,
Sam: lad, is will any of the approved appointments, like, be fired before the end
Sam: of the year? That's how I interpret this.
Sam: I will say fired or resigned, yes. There will be turnover.
Ivan: Some of Trump's original facts. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah,
Ivan: absolutely. I mean, that's like a given. Yes. Yes.
Sam: Before the end of the year, at least one of the cabinet.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: That was approved will no longer be.
Ivan: Listen, even in good administrations, that shit happens. You know?
Sam: Sometimes they make it a year.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. But sometimes, but even in good administrations,
Ivan: sometimes that happens. Yes.
Sam: Yeah. So I'll say yes as well. We both agree. And then that's a dupli- I was
Sam: going to ask, will there be any turnover? Same thing.
Sam: Okay. Now, from me, we're now onto the me ones.
Sam: Will there be any pre-inauguration drama of the January 6th, 2021 sort at all?
Ivan: No.
Sam: And not necessarily like Democrats trying to take over the Congress.
Ivan: But like anything. No.
Sam: Like, yeah, no, no.
Ivan: No.
Sam: No. I think you're probably right.
Ivan: Yeah, nothing's happening.
Sam: There might be some token sort of thing. If you remember the first time Trump won,
Sam: there was some January 6th stuff where some Democrats tried to contest it,
Sam: and they were immediately shut down by the Democrats.
Ivan: Yeah, but nothing happened. But we were talking about the faithless electors,
Ivan: blah, blah, blah, that kind of stuff.
Sam: Yeah, we had faithless electors.
Ivan: None of that happened.
Sam: Yeah, none of that happened. But one of the things that has been talked about
Sam: is the Supreme Court's decision about Trump's eligibility to be president via insurrection,
Sam: in part said, well, that's Congress's decision.
Sam: And the right time to mount those objections would be when you count the votes,
Sam: unless they had passed legislation, which they didn't.
Sam: And so at least some Democrats are saying they should put an an effort to say,
Sam: well, he's ineligible to become president, so he can't get electoral votes.
Sam: So I wouldn't be shocked if some Democrat tried that.
Ivan: But it's just going to be like for nothing.
Sam: But it'll be shut down immediately.
Ivan: It'll be a big nothing burger. Yeah.
Sam: Harris herself would be banging the gavel and saying, you know, done.
Sam: I mean, they might have to vote on it or something. I actually don't think that's
Sam: going to happen. I'm going to predict that does not happen, but some people are talking about it.
Sam: And if it does happen, it will be shut down immediately. And I don't anticipate
Sam: any other drama of that sort.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Okay. Next.
Sam: Will Harris be president for a short time between Biden and Trump?
Sam: Some people have talked about like Biden resigning like a week early or something
Sam: just to get her to be just so much to piss off Trump.
Sam: I don't know. Like she would be 47 instead of him.
Ivan: That actually sounds like I like this idea because they've made all these hats
Ivan: and things and stuff or whatever.
Ivan: It's just the fuck with them that he's not 40. He's not 47.
Ivan: Okay, I do like this idea. At first I thought, well, what the fuck, why not?
Ivan: But I got to admit, I like this idea. I don't think it's going to happen,
Ivan: but I definitely like this idea because that would,
Ivan: oh my God, can you imagine they got all this inauguration shit and they've got,
Ivan: I've seen all the hats with the 40 and all this shit and you just like completely
Ivan: fuck those people. Oh, that would be awesome.
Ivan: I'm like, God damn it. I'm writing to Biden right now. Just say Biden,
Ivan: please. Just, just, you know what? Just knock off early. knock off a.
Sam: Week you know that's.
Ivan: It just to fucking stick it to
Ivan: those bastards yes I like this idea but I don't think he's going to do it.
Sam: I also like the idea I also think he's not going to do it will he will attend
Sam: the inauguration as president and hand it over to Trump like the good institutionalist trooper he is,
Sam: okay next up who will be president at the end of 2025 so this obviously donald.
Ivan: Trump will be.
Sam: President i i will i will agree
Sam: obviously the only ways that would not happen are he
Sam: resigns the 25th amendment or he dies you
Sam: know all possible all possible but
Sam: unlikely i i will you know i
Sam: will not predict any of those things but you
Sam: know he like what yeah
Sam: i mean like he could resign just because he's bored he's gotten everything
Sam: he's he didn't go to jail he's gotten
Sam: he's gotten out of everything yep and so
Sam: he doesn't really want or like the job so do
Sam: it for a little while and then be like i'm out
Sam: have fun jd you know that that's possible if
Sam: like he his health or
Sam: dementia or something gets really bad you could
Sam: see a a 25th amendment scenario but also
Sam: probably unlikely even if those things were bad
Sam: they'd probably more likely do like the dave scenario or something you know
Sam: or or what what's the other one the one where they carried around the dead guy
Sam: for like in the movies you know the that one i don't you know the one i'm.
Sam: You don't know anything anymore. Yeah.
Sam: Anyway, one of those things they would do something or finally he dies.
Sam: You never know, but I'm not going to predict that. Although you've been predicting
Sam: he'd die of natural causes for like eight years.
Ivan: And you know what? Obviously I've been wrong.
Ivan: I'm going, I'm going, listen, is what I'm going to do.
Ivan: I think the year that I predicted Fidel was going to die, wasn't going to die. He died.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: So. So. Oh, you got fireworks?
Sam: Apparently somebody's setting off fireworks.
Ivan: This is a little bit early for that, but okay. All right.
Ivan: So I'm going to go, I'm going to play the opposite. Say you're not going to die.
Sam: Okay. Now that, that does have bring up something I didn't put on the list,
Sam: but it reminded me of, Will there be any additional assassination attempts in
Sam: 2025 of Donald Trump? Of Donald Trump.
Ivan: Man, I'm going to say yes.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: We've had, I mean, he's already had two.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, that, you know, maybe more. I, yeah, I mean, yes.
Ivan: I mean, the mood right now with assassination has been upped many not.
Sam: People seem to be all excited about it. They want more.
Sam: I'll say yes, there will be more attempts. I will also say they will be unsuccessful.
Sam: Like, at least one. There will be at least one attempt.
Ivan: I don't know. Fuck, you know, Sam, they got really close. I mean, look.
Sam: They did. They did.
Ivan: I mean, listen, that guy was a couple of inches away from, you know,
Ivan: Trump being dead. It was, you know, I mean.
Sam: Oh, yeah.
Ivan: So I'm not writing it off that, you know.
Sam: No but i i think that because of that in part everything will be tightened up like so.
Ivan: Yeah but but you know one problem that you count is that trump just loves to not listen or follow.
Sam: And that is true advice like so they they could be trying to keep him in a bubble
Sam: and he'd just reject it and go out wherever.
Ivan: Yeah. Okay.
Sam: So, okay. Next up the, the, the only one of the Trump cases that has not been,
Sam: officially fully delayed until after is the New York case.
Sam: Everybody seems to assume that the New York judge has indefinitely delayed sentencing,
Sam: but hasn't yet said, we're going to wait until after Trump's term.
Sam: Will he issue a sentence in that case, or will he just delay it until after the election?
Sam: I think he's delaying it until after the election. He's not going to do that.
Ivan: I think he's going to delay it until after he leaves the president.
Sam: I mean, not the election, until after the four-year term, until Trump's not- Well.
Ivan: Until he's not president anymore.
Sam: Period. Yes. I don't think he'll, like, there's still some motions in play to
Sam: dismiss it out of hand that he hasn't dealt with yet.
Ivan: But he's already rejected that.
Sam: He rejected, no, he rejected one of the motions to dismiss. There's still another one pending.
Sam: But I don't think he's going to dismiss it, but I don't think he's going to issue a sentence.
Sam: He is going to just pause the case for four years or how, or last if Trump isn't
Sam: president for four years, but I'm assuming four years. So in any case,
Sam: it won't happen this year. Okay.
Sam: Will the Trump administration openly investigate any political opponents or members of the press?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: I will agree. Yes. Will they actually indict any of those people in 2025?
Ivan: Oh, yeah. I'm sure they'll indict somebody. I mean, remember,
Ivan: you're saying somebody.
Sam: Well, I'm saying specifically political opponents or members of the press.
Ivan: Specifically a political opponent. something they'll cook up.
Sam: Something on somebody by the end of the year this includes like
Sam: the the congress people who are involved in the january 6 investigation it includes
Sam: jack smith and his staff it includes like you know any basically any democrat
Sam: it includes like all of the all of the reporters at cnn and msnbc or hosts that
Sam: he doesn't there will be some.
Ivan: Clearly visible like, you know, him ordering a prosecution of somebody that
Ivan: he, he, he, he openly despises.
Sam: I'm going to, I'm going to say investigations in 2025, but no indictments yet.
Sam: He'll be able to harass people a lot with just the investigations.
Sam: Maybe there'll be indictments in a future year, but I'm going to say not in 2025,
Sam: just investigations, but, but open, obvious
Sam: investigations where we know they're happening and the it's in the news and
Sam: their mate their statements are being made about the things that these people
Sam: did wrong and blah because of course like the other yeah all of that like all
Sam: of the investigation we will know stuff about investigations but i i'm gonna
Sam: say no indictments and so you're.
Ivan: Saying investigations don't indictment i'm saying investigations that's at least
Ivan: one some one person will get indicted.
Sam: Okay,
Sam: last one for presidential will trump initiate hostile military action anywhere
Sam: the u.s was not already involved in 2024 with us say no i i think.
Ivan: No i think at the end he chickens out on all of these.
Sam: Yeah in terms of direct action like it might be more subtle in terms of like
Sam: supporting stuff like we're doing in ukraine we're not we're not.
Ivan: Invade we're not invading panama we're not invading.
Sam: Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait. We got separate questions on those later in the show.
Ivan: Like, well, what I'm saying is those are military actions. What I'm saying is
Ivan: that we're not invading. We're not, you know, we're not doing it.
Ivan: I don't think we're doing any of that.
Sam: Okay. I will ask you specific questions on specific countries later on.
Sam: And you could say no to be consistent. I will.
Sam: i'm gonna say no as
Sam: well and that will presage several
Sam: other questions we have later like i i feel like there's some scenarios where
Sam: trump might end up doing that but i'm not going to predict them outright okay
Sam: next up congress will t c j a be renewed i will admit i actually don't know
Sam: what that is i'm gonna look it up.
Ivan: I don't know.
Sam: What tax cut and jobs act that's so it's it's it's trump's tax cuts oh tax.
Ivan: Cuts of course they're gonna renew that shit yeah.
Sam: Now wait a second oh because they're gonna do it through reconciliation right
Sam: so they don't need 60 votes in the senate yeah.
Ivan: They're gonna do that that's how they did the first time yeah they're.
Sam: Gonna get that done yeah i think that's like i agree that's like one of the
Sam: first things yeah that's they're probably going to do that right away in january
Sam: or february yeah like that's going to be a first hundred the one thing they were trying.
Ivan: To do is they're trying to throw a bone at some people,
Ivan: increase the assault deduction.
Sam: I remember that being talked about in the
Sam: campaign yeah yeah they will
Sam: they will they will extend the tax cuts yes agreed okay next up for me how many
Sam: speakers of the house will there be in 2025 oh with two okay so johnson who
Sam: will start the year no matter what yeah plus somebody else somebody.
Ivan: Else yeah yeah these guys are just fighting so so much already that i don't
Ivan: see how johnson survives.
Sam: I'm they.
Ivan: They hate johnson a.
Sam: Lot i'm gonna go out i'm gonna go out of limb here and say
Sam: three three wow three johnson whoever
Sam: replaces johnson and whoever replaces that person okay um now i i worded this
Sam: wrong in our quip but Like when they actually go in for the new Congress and
Sam: initially vote for the speaker,
Sam: will Johnson be the winner of that vote?
Sam: Or will like, will he become speaker for the next Congress?
Sam: And then in your case, lose later, or is he going to lose right up off the bat?
Ivan: No, I think I don't think he's going to lose right off the bat.
Ivan: I think it just it just happens later.
Sam: So you think he will actually win the speaker vote in January?
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think he gets a speaker boat later, but it's just,
Ivan: because, yeah, they're going to,
Ivan: He's going to win it, and then sometime later he will lose.
Sam: Because he seemed like he was in trouble a couple weeks ago,
Sam: but then it seems like he maybe recovered a little bit from that.
Ivan: But that's why I don't think, but the thing is that they kicked the ball,
Ivan: they kicked the can down the road on this bunch of thing and whatever.
Ivan: I think that's when this whole thing implodes.
Sam: There is one House member who has explicitly said that he won't vote for Johnson,
Sam: but only one. but I think he can only afford two, something like that.
Sam: So your prediction is, yes, he will win the speaker vote in January,
Sam: but when they have to deal with government funding again in like March or whenever it is,
Sam: that's when it'll blow up for him and there'll be a new speaker after that.
Sam: That's your prediction?
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Okay. I guess I'll do. My prediction is that he will not win the speaker vote
Sam: in January, that it'll be contentious right away.
Sam: And then at some point later in the year, maybe it's the March thing.
Sam: Maybe it's a little bit later when they have to deal with the debt limit. I don't know.
Sam: Then there will be another crisis later in the year and he will lose the speakership because of that.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Okay. How many ballots will the first speaker selection take?
Sam: Will he win on the first ballot, Yvonne?
Ivan: No. I'm going to give it I'm going to say less than 10.
Sam: Less than 10. Yeah. Okay.
Sam: I will agree with you on less than 10, but should I be more specific?
Sam: Like, I don't think it's going to be one. Like, I mean, maybe he'll pull.
Ivan: Okay. It's not, that's what I'm saying. It's not going to be,
Ivan: it's going to be more than one. So I'm saying two to 10.
Sam: You're saying two to 10.
Ivan: Okay. Yeah.
Sam: I'll say five to 10. Like, so not beating what we got with McCarthy. Cause like.
Ivan: No.
Sam: I think they learned their lesson from that. And also they have a deadline.
Sam: They're getting sworn in on January 3rd.
Sam: They have to be able to count electoral votes on January 6th.
Sam: So they only have two and a half days to do this.
Sam: If they don't succeed in picking a speaker by the 6th, it is constitutionally unclear what happens.
Sam: Now, I would suspect that whoever was clerk of the house and acting speaker
Sam: would just do that. But like, theoretically, the Speaker of the House has to
Sam: open that session on January 6th.
Sam: And yeah, so because officially the House doesn't exist until they've picked a speaker.
Sam: So I think they'll be under a lot of pressure. So I'll say five to 10.
Sam: Now, of course, now that we've both said that, he'll win on the first ballot.
Ivan: But of course he will.
Sam: Okay. Now, next up, since the House majority is so, so thin,
Sam: after they take the majority in January, will Republicans keep the House majority all year long?
Ivan: I mean, that's another way that I think they could lose a fucking position.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: All they need is the wrong couple of people to have something happen to them
Sam: or, you know, whether it's a resignation, a scandal, death, illness, whatever.
Ivan: I think that they have high odds of losing it, but I still think they're over 50% of on keeping it.
Ivan: So I'm saying they'll somehow manage to, to hang on through the end of the year.
Sam: I will agree. Like as much fun as that scenario would be, like,
Sam: I'm not going to outright predict it.
Ivan: But it's very possible.
Sam: It's very possible. Like, you know, like a bunch of Republicans have left for
Sam: the Trump administration, but you know, in that case, they're going to,
Sam: he's, he has picked house members, but he's picked house members from safe Republican districts.
Sam: They're only a handful of purple districts. you would need a republican in a purple district.
Ivan: But you have something untimely.
Sam: Happen to them and.
Ivan: Yeah yeah yeah but here's the thing you say that and then you still remember
Ivan: what happened when sessions got taken from the senate and and and and went you
Ivan: know and a special election was
Ivan: there and we wound up with a freaking democratic alabama senator you're.
Sam: Right and also there's temporary situations right like.
Ivan: Right if.
Sam: You lose if you lose three or four republicans even from safe district.
Ivan: Right it.
Sam: Would temporarily give the house.
Ivan: To the democrats until.
Sam: They were replaced.
Ivan: Great so it's very tenuous and and yeah just picking up some safe districts
Ivan: especially on an off-year election doesn't guarantee squat i mean it's happened
Ivan: before hell it happened to the Democrats when Kennedy went and died and they
Ivan: fucking went like they got a goddamn Republican to Massachusetts.
Ivan: You know, this shit happens. Okay. And so just because they're safe districts,
Ivan: it's definitely no guarantee.
Sam: Okay. Next up and, and everybody, politics is always our longest segment here.
Sam: So last question in the Congress section, will congressional Republicans,
Sam: either the house or the Senate break with Trump on any significant issue in notable numbers.
Ivan: Any significant issue.
Sam: And of course that's lots of wiggle room for interpretation there.
Sam: Like, and I will say like, let's exclude like the debt limit and, and,
Sam: and like budget funding because the routine normal thing for Republicans going
Sam: back like more than a decade,
Sam: is those things get passed with a significant chunk of Republicans voting no,
Sam: and then all of the Democrats plus some Republicans pass.
Ivan: I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I.
Ivan: I think there, there will be something already in this first year because the
Ivan: problem is that he's thrown out so much.
Ivan: I mean, he's been just talking about so many fucking things to do that are just
Ivan: nuts, but something is going to, something is going to wind up being a fucking shit show.
Sam: I don't agree on, I mean, I agree fully on shit show.
Sam: I will say, I'm going to say no, based on the significant numbers thing.
Sam: like will one or two republicans come out against him on one or two issues maybe
Sam: up to like a half dozen or some so yeah probably especially in the senate maybe
Sam: in the house too but like not enough to like i'm.
Ivan: Saying like remember.
Sam: I'm not saying.
Ivan: That they're going to fight about everything i'm.
Sam: Saying there.
Ivan: Is going to be one thing that there are going to be some of his cronies and
Ivan: people are going to be pushing it that they're all going to go say fuck.
Sam: I mean it's essentially already happened like so
Sam: so i i see
Sam: that there's a pretty good chance of it happening and significant numbers
Sam: quote-unquote i was about to say if it's not significant enough to like block
Sam: what he's doing then it doesn't count but you only need one or two people in
Sam: the house right lock anything at this point so right i'll i'll say at least
Sam: some issue i'll agree with you at least something will be foiled by renegade Republicans.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Now, Trump will, of course, spin it like in such a way like once he realizes
Sam: that's happening, he'll back off or something.
Ivan: He'll spin it. He'll spin it. Listen, Trump will spin. Listen,
Ivan: Trump will declare victory over any defeat.
Sam: Yes, of course. Like, yes.
Ivan: I mean, even if he loses, he always wins.
Sam: Trump will never admit defeat on anything. There's a prediction right there.
Sam: For the year, Trump will not— He will not be.
Ivan: Oh my God, we have been defeated at this. Those words will not be uttered from this mouth ever.
Sam: Yes, agreed. Okay, other politics, and then we will wrap up politics.
Sam: Will any substantive reforms—this is from Bruce,
Sam: and by that he means greater than one billion dollars wait one billion not trillion
Sam: one billion small but one billion nothing you know like i wouldn't even notice
Sam: it if somebody dropped a billion on me you know um or me anyway i'm at from bought.
Ivan: That bought that mega millions.
Sam: Yeah i got i got one too like so you shouldn't have bothered because i'm clearly gonna win okay you know.
Ivan: All right i'm.
Sam: Already like shopping for yachts will some
Sam: will any substantive reforms emerge from doge let's
Sam: let's negotiate on the billion category like i'll say like no definitely no
Sam: for the trillion level like they're aiming at multiple trillion like 1.5 trillion
Sam: or 2.5 trillion or whatever that's a definite no a billion is small though could
Sam: they find a billion somewhere i bet you.
Ivan: They can find a billion okay a billion yes will they find a billion yes but
Ivan: that's not really that's just chump change that's.
Sam: Not really substantive.
Ivan: No that's chump change yeah i will.
Sam: Say for for the most part doge will be a complete failure they.
Ivan: Will come.
Sam: Up with a whole bunch of things that like that.
Ivan: That are that are that are just that are just politically toxic yeah and everybody
Ivan: will say fuck you we're not doing any of these look yeah this goes back to the well like i.
Sam: Said on the billion they may they may find like one little thing to pull out
Sam: of it to give them some like way to claim.
Ivan: Victory without actually having done this goes back to the reagan administration
Ivan: and david stockman and how he wrote that book the triumph of politics david
Ivan: stockman is the chief of the office of management and budget back then they
Ivan: went in with this plan where they said that they were going to, you know, cut the taxes,
Ivan: the Laffer curve, we're going to, you know, blah, blah, blah, with all trickle down.
Ivan: And the one thing is they needed to do also all these cuts in spending.
Ivan: And when it came to cutting the spending, they did, you know,
Ivan: they did all the tax cuts first.
Ivan: Then they went, oh, let's cut the spending. And what happened? Nothing.
Ivan: Nothing. Not one fucking dime
Ivan: got really cut. Yeah, some bullshit here and there, whatever, whatnot.
Sam: But at most, you will get things held to current level. You will not have actual cuts.
Ivan: Exactly.
Sam: Like you will have a reduction in the planned increase.
Ivan: Yeah. I mean, but the deficit exploded and, you know, we've, you know, yeah.
Ivan: And that was, that was the end of it. You know, there was no,
Ivan: no political will anywhere to go and like all these programs that they have
Ivan: identified that they want to cut.
Ivan: So no, not, I think, will they find stuff that's over a billion dollars?
Ivan: Maybe, probably.
Sam: Will they do any.
Ivan: Will they cut any program like the ones they've identified, which is I mean,
Ivan: if I'd shit like, hey, let's cut VA health.
Ivan: Hey, let's cut. I mean, it's like, look, dude, it's no, not out.
Sam: I will say further. I fully believe they will find something over a billion
Sam: dollars that they managed to cut.
Sam: But I will say it will be compensate compensated for by increases.
Ivan: Exactly.
Sam: You know, like they will find scapegoat programs that Republicans don't like.
Sam: And they will get rid of them. But then, like, simultaneously,
Sam: they'll do something like increased defense funding or, oh, I know,
Sam: increased funding for SpaceX. You know?
Ivan: That's, you know.
Sam: You know, whatever.
Ivan: All I'm saying is what I've got, Laura Loomer is my ally. What the fuck is this plan to come to?
Sam: Okay. Ten seconds. What happened with Laura Loomer? Say it.
Ivan: She basically said what she just said, that all this Doge thing is,
Ivan: hey, I've just figured out that these guys, all they're doing is want to cut
Ivan: money from other stuff just to line their pockets with it.
Ivan: That's what Elon's doing.
Sam: Yes. But I think your overall prediction, though, that, you know, yeah, tax cuts. Yes.
Sam: Spending cuts. No. That's the rough summary.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Yeah. Okay. Will also from Bruce, will there be any SCOTUS openings?
Sam: I'll say yes. Absolutely.
Ivan: Fuck me.
Sam: That probably. I mean, this year.
Ivan: But this. No, but this year.
Sam: This year, this year, this year, everybody hit the reporting.
Sam: has said that both thomas
Sam: and alito are just waiting for a republican to
Sam: retire ah okay and so
Sam: i definitely they i could see them spacing those out so i won't say if we'll
Sam: get one or two but i'll say at least one at least one and you you could always
Sam: get surprises of more but i think you'll you'll get at least one in 2025 okay
Sam: and what's your prediction you think.
Ivan: I think not this year.
Sam: They'll figure they have four years. They can wait. And Thomas,
Sam: for instance, he's got all the money coming in. He's got all that stuff.
Ivan: He likes this job.
Sam: Why stop that before he has to?
Ivan: Right.
Sam: That's what I'll say. From what I've heard the reporting of,
Sam: he doesn't actually particularly like the job.
Sam: He does like the cash coming in.
Sam: You know, the cash and perks.
Sam: So maybe Alito will be the one to go. I don't know.
Sam: But also, you could very well be right that they decide to wait because they've
Sam: got four years now. They can retire.
Sam: They can hang on for another couple of years and then go.
Sam: I think those two are a definite sometime during this administration,
Sam: but I'm still going to predict at least one this year.
Sam: Okay. Okay.
Sam: Bruce wants to know the size of the 2025 budget deficit. We usually put that
Sam: in economy, but he put it.
Ivan: I don't.
Sam: What is it now?
Ivan: Fuck. I don't.
Sam: I will. I will just say it will be up. It will be.
Ivan: The deficit will go up.
Sam: It will go up.
Ivan: Whatever it is, it's going to go up.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Yeah. I won't give a number, but it will go up. I mean, if they pass the damn
Sam: tax cuts, of course it will.
Ivan: Yes. Yes.
Sam: Like, well, if they pass an extension at current levels, then that ostensibly is flat over right now.
Sam: But they'll probably add some stuff to it. And like we said,
Sam: they're not going to do cuts. Some other stuff will increase,
Sam: blah, blah, blah. It will be up. The deficit will be up.
Sam: Because, you know, as usual, we have the scenario where deficits go down with
Sam: Democratic presidents and go up with Republican presidents. I mean,
Sam: that pattern is held for most of our lives, Yvonne. I don't see any reason why that's going to change.
Ivan: Not going to change.
Sam: Yeah. Okay. Next up for me, will the debt limit be increased? Yes.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: They made that agreement right now. I don't think that's going to change.
Sam: It will, as usual, happen.
Sam: I shouldn't make extra predictions, but as usual, it will happen with Democrats plus a few Republicans.
Sam: Republicans will hate it. There'll be that core group of Republicans who hate
Sam: it and vote against it, but it will happen. Will there be a government shutdown?
Ivan: Yes oh for sure i think we're we're gonna get one the first time this money
Ivan: runs out oh yeah uh well i think that.
Sam: I think they'll avoid it again.
Ivan: I'll be brief but we'll have a shutdown these guys listen like they already
Ivan: you already had to listen you already had to lie to them like through the teeth
Ivan: to get this this resolution well.
Sam: Like the one that happened this time like.
Ivan: Yeah did.
Sam: It count because they technically missed the deadline biden biden.
Ivan: Like signed that bill into law like 12 hours after yeah yeah yeah it didn't
Ivan: count nobody's paychecks got cut nobody it wasn't happened over a weekend the dead dead no no.
Sam: No okay but you you think there will be one.
Ivan: Oh yeah i'm.
Sam: Gonna i'm gonna say no they'll avoid it again.
Ivan: Yeah i think okay sure also.
Sam: For me will Will there be a significant state versus federal confrontation,
Sam: like when the states resisted integration in the South, over Trump trying to
Sam: impose policies on the states?
Ivan: Wait. Huh?
Sam: Okay. During the civil rights era, there were national federal policies on integration and the like.
Ivan: Yeah?
Sam: And various states resisted those and the feds were brought in to enforce it.
Sam: Will that kind of thing happen in the
Sam: first year of the Trump administration where at the federal level they're trying
Sam: to enforce immigration policy or abortion policy or anything like that where
Sam: individual states resist that and there ends up being a confrontation between
Sam: federal and state authorities?
Ivan: I think it's going to just state at the legal, at the courts level.
Ivan: It's not like they're going to march in troops to enforce.
Sam: Like they did in the 60s. Cause that did happen in the second.
Ivan: Yeah. That did not go over well.
Sam: Well, I mean, yeah, the feds ended up imposing their will against the states
Sam: in that case, which in that particular case, I approve.
Sam: I imagine I would disagree with Trump trying to do the same if some state would resist.
Ivan: But it was very, you know.
Sam: It depends on the thing.
Ivan: Yeah, it was, you know, it overall that although that was done, it was problematic.
Sam: Okay but you're saying that won't happen now
Sam: i'm gonna say it will and at least one place
Sam: there will be a situation where you know state authorities are actively saying
Sam: no to something trump wants and trump's going to do something you know nationalize
Sam: the national guard or or Or instruct, you know,
Sam: the FBI to do something,
Sam: you know, I don't know, like there'd be some sort of conflict of that sort that's
Sam: outside of just the courts.
Ivan: I keep thinking in my head, just like troops, like all of a sudden,
Ivan: like, you know, or, you know, making something happen. I just don't think that's going to happen.
Sam: Okay. Next up, will the number of undocumented migrants entering the United
Sam: States go up or down? Also for me.
Ivan: I think a number of listen during the Trump administration they had a surge
Ivan: of border crossings you know this is the whole thing so he will say that he
Ivan: will get the border under control but and are we talking.
Sam: Not or gross we should specify.
Ivan: I'm talking gross number of crossings.
Sam: Okay. Yes.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah.
Sam: You think it's going to go up?
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: An actual number of estimated crossings, not number caught.
Ivan: Right. Correct. Yeah.
Sam: Do we have good numbers on that?
Ivan: There are. I mean, let me.
Sam: There's good numbers on caught. I know, but I'm going to say it will go down because Trump will.
Sam: You're right. it went up when he
Sam: was being exceptionally harsh like four years ago but i think in the end,
Sam: that that there's more to do with other like the situations in the home countries and stuff well yes.
Ivan: And but but i i think that well that's the problem okay that we've had you know
Ivan: this is the global population the global situation is getting better.
Sam: Right it's not no you know are you going to change my mind no i'll stick with
Sam: it'll go down it'll go down but not by much how about total immigration including
Sam: legal immigration to the u.s.
Ivan: Up or down i'm.
Sam: Going to say down.
Ivan: Yeah because there are a lot of people who find.
Sam: Coming here less attractive.
Ivan: Yeah probably go down you see the
Ivan: thing is my problem is that you've got the one data of
Ivan: course that i i found is the number of encounters by
Ivan: u.s border patrols which by the way that doesn't really is not the same no it's
Ivan: not the same at all no at all it means that they're they're being far more effective
Ivan: at like intercepting people it's not this is uh uh so i i don't uh,
Ivan: You know, you know, I have to see, I'm going to have to find to see if we've got good data.
Sam: How about deportations? Will deportations actually go up?
Sam: Like, like Donald Trump, one of his main pillars is I'm going to deport like
Sam: millions and millions of people, mass deportations.
Sam: Like, will deportations actually go up 2025 versus 2024?
Ivan: I don't think so because they've already been ramped up like crazy.
Ivan: This is the problem. understand they're already
Ivan: i mean i don't i
Ivan: don't understand how physically we increase that but it's
Ivan: already at the number of encounters are record numbers we've had record numbers
Ivan: of deportations and the reality is that they went down under the first trump
Ivan: administration versus the obama administration so i'm not even like i i don't
Ivan: i don't i don't know man i i is i'm.
Sam: Gonna I'm going to say, yes, it will go up. He will figure out a way to make it go up.
Sam: And even, and separate prediction aside from the numbers, there will be show deeper deportations.
Ivan: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: That, that will, he will make a point of having
Sam: really highly visible deportations where they're going in and doing raids and
Sam: kicking people out of the country and stuff like that to make it look like there's
Sam: a big effort regardless of the numbers and to make it seem extremely hostile.
Sam: But I think the number actually will go up. I think this was such a central
Sam: plank they'll figure out a way to make it happen.
Sam: Any more thoughts on this one? If not, it's time to take a break.
Ivan: Encounters, nationwide encounters, southwest land border encounters, title eight.
Ivan: That's the problem. I mean the only real information we have are encounters.
Sam: Mm-hmm.
Ivan: And they went way up.
Ivan: Under Biden from the Trump administration.
Sam: Yeah, I'm not even going to go there. The impression is so counter than that,
Sam: like that was left during the campaign, right?
Sam: They successfully managed to paint Biden as like a pansy on the border,
Sam: but he was deporting way more people than Trump did.
Ivan: Exactly. So it's, I'm like, okay.
Ivan: Anyway.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: By the way, have you heard from, ever since Trump won, any of those governors
Ivan: complaining about the border crisis?
Sam: Nah, I haven't heard anything lately. No.
Ivan: Me neither. It's amazing.
Sam: Amazing that. Yeah. Okay, let's take a break, and we will come back for international.
Sam: I normally randomize the breaks, but I'm just going to go in order from oldest to newest here.
Sam: and uh yeah because it's easier for
Sam: me and it doesn't bring up a chance of the ones i have to prepare for
Sam: here we go and yvonne's
Sam: dying already uh this this segment is almost always by far our longest segment
Sam: like twice three times as long as anything else and we're we generally zoom
Sam: through each segment is usually shorter than the one before so anyway here we
Sam: go uh first break ray lynch here we go,
Sam: No.
Break: No, it's not the beginning of the show again. We're just taking a little time
Break: to credit the artist responsible for the music we use at the beginning and end of the show.
Break: What you are listening to right now is The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch.
Break: The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch.
Break: You can check out Ray Lynch or buy his music at RayLynch.com,
Break: iTunes, Amazon, or anywhere you usually find music.
Sam: Okay, we're back and it's time for international starting with Europe.
Sam: First question is from Bruce. Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Ivan: No.
Sam: No.
Ivan: In this year, no.
Sam: In 2025. How do you think it's going to play out?
Ivan: I think it might be a ceasefire later, but I just don't, no,
Ivan: no, I just don't think there will be a ceasefire this year.
Sam: This year, this year, well, 2025.
Ivan: Yeah. I mean, 2025. Yeah. Yeah. I just don't think it's 25, 2026,
Ivan: maybe, but I just don't, don't think 2025.
Sam: But Yvonne, Donald Trump said he would do it in 24 hours.
Ivan: Well, apparently Putin already told him no.
Sam: So, yeah, but I think I'm going to say yes, but not because of like,
Sam: I think it's just going to be a situation where you almost have to,
Sam: like with the lack of support from the Trump side,
Sam: Ukraine is going to just be in a very bad spot and is going to have to like
Sam: look for something where, and we're not talking about a permanent peace deal.
Sam: We're just talking about a ceasefire where some sort of thing where they freeze the line back off.
Ivan: I mean, look, we're not.
Sam: Yeah. So you're saying you're saying that if if if there's weakness on the Ukraine
Sam: side, the Russians are just going to push forward.
Sam: They're not going to agree to a pause because like you could you could imagine
Sam: even like the reason Ukraine says they don't want to cease fire is because the
Sam: Russians will just take the opportunity to refresh their forces, rearm, whatever.
Sam: You don't think the Russians would want a pause just for those purposes and
Sam: then resume a few months later.
Ivan: Yeah, no, they don't want to do that. You know...
Ivan: There is a lot of like material and munitions and other things that I have heard
Ivan: are being also sourced from other places right now. There's also a whole bunch of different like.
Sam: Well, the whole Russian war effort is at this point, almost a proxy for North Korea and Iran.
Ivan: Well, exactly. So that's why I'm like, I don't know, man.
Ivan: I just don't think that I don't, I think there'll be a lot of posturing and negotiating this year.
Ivan: But I just don't think that it's going to happen that quickly in 2025,
Ivan: you know, especially because Putin just got his ass handed to him in Syria.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: And I don't think that from his perspective, he would see a ceasefire right
Ivan: now as beneficial because of the embarrassment of which has happened in Syria.
Sam: I'm going to say yes to a ceasefire, but I don't think it will last.
Sam: Like there may be a ceasefire for a short amount of time, but not through,
Sam: not necessarily through the end of the year.
Ivan: So you think there's going to be like some kind of short ceasefire?
Sam: Yeah. Like I think there's going to be some sort of thing where.
Ivan: Well, let's be clear. I don't want to drag it out.
Ivan: You think, yes, ceasefire, at least one, even brief, I say no way.
Sam: Okay, and then Bruce's next question is, will there be a signed peace deal in
Sam: Ukraine? And I'm going to say no.
Ivan: Oh, fuck, no. Jesus Christ. I mean, you know, there's been wars that have had
Ivan: 30, we don't have a peace deal from the Korean War yet, for God's sakes.
Ivan: No, we don't. That's still technically a war.
Sam: And remember, World War II ended in 1989, or was it 93?
Sam: It might have even been passed. It was like 93 or so. It was with German unification
Sam: was when their peace treaty with the U.S.
Sam: was actually signed for World War II.
Ivan: Right. So, yeah. So, you know, the fuck are we talking about? Hell no.
Sam: Yeah. No signed peace deal, but I think there will be at least one ceasefire.
Sam: And I think it's going to primarily be driven by the fact that Ukraine is going
Sam: to be really struggling without the same levels of active support that Biden has been giving. what.
Ivan: I what i just think.
Sam: Is although trump has said trump in an interview last week
Sam: or two weeks ago something said that he would be in favor of with a ceasefire
Sam: actually continuing to arm ukraine and even potentially putting nato forces
Sam: in ukraine as long as the is part of a deal that said you know whatever uh.
Ivan: But how do I explain to you?
Sam: This might be one of those Nixon to China things where like Trump can pull something
Sam: off that Biden was never able to.
Ivan: Maybe. But the thing is that, look, he's like a weather vane. I mean, what the hell?
Ivan: I mean, come on. I don't know. Tomorrow the wind's going to be going the other way.
Ivan: And he's going to say that we're, you know, fucking we're turning Ukraine over to Russia.
Sam: We'll bomb Ukraine ourselves.
Ivan: Yes. That would be out of the realm of possibility of something that he would say one day. Yes.
Sam: So anyway, summary, you're saying no ceasefire, no peace deal.
Sam: I'm saying yes, ceasefire, no peace deal. And the ceasefire may be temporary.
Sam: And the may be temporary. That part's not a prediction, but yes. Okay.
Sam: Well, then Ed asks the other part of it, sort of the complete opposite direction.
Sam: Will Ukraine be defeated and completely annexed into Russia?
Sam: I don't think that's happening either.
Ivan: Look i think all i'm saying is that for
Ivan: all of russia's might and how much they put into syria
Ivan: and how quickly that folded and even afghanistan were to try the same thing
Ivan: and they folded there too ukraine is actually stronger than either of those
Ivan: they don't have the war with all for that they have they have the they have
Ivan: the thing to inflict damage that they do but you know the the reality.
Sam: Of the situation in ukraine is all of the major action in terms of land-changing
Sam: hands happened either when they took Crimea years ago,
Sam: or in the first few months of the full invasion.
Sam: And that since then, once Ukraine repelled that initial assault,
Sam: the front lines have been really static for a long time.
Sam: In the last year, Russia has gained some ground.
Sam: Like it's been a long time since Ukraine gained ground, not aside from their
Sam: little thing in Kursk, but it's, it's been tiny amounts of land for the most part,
Sam: things have been pretty stagnant for over a year now.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Here's an additional one. Will Ukraine still have a presence in Kursk at the
Sam: end of the year? Like actually inside Russia? I'm going to say no.
Ivan: Ah, I get that right. I think so. And the cursor region F.
Ivan: I hate these questions. I'll go with yes.
Sam: Okay. I will also add, will the percentage of Ukraine occupied by Russia go up or down in 2025?
Sam: And through November, because that's as far as we'll know, probably.
Sam: I will say Russia, the Russian percentage will increase.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: You agree?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Okay. Moving on from Ukraine, Bruce asks, will there be a coup in any European country?
Sam: No, I'll agree.
Sam: Through non-coup means, this one's from me, will right-wing parties take power
Sam: in any more European countries in 2025?
Sam: It looks like Germany's government just collapsed.
Sam: France's government has been having issues. They're both likely to have that
Sam: resolved in one way or another this year.
Sam: There may be other countries. i know that there were some.
Ivan: I'm gonna say no and i'm gonna tell you why because i do think that trump re-elected
Ivan: also swings the pendulum of opinion on this like the other way it's one of these
Ivan: like you know you get these pendulum swings of this shit i think we've had the
Ivan: pendulum swing like way like that way like right now and i think it's gonna
Ivan: start coming back to a certain extent how.
Sam: About any eastern european like near.
Ivan: Russia yeah yeah yeah they actually they've tried that And it's been,
Ivan: you know, it's been met with like complete opposite. Okay.
Sam: I will say no. Oh, well, we're on right wing parties taking power now, not coup.
Ivan: Yeah. Right wing parties taking power. So I'm saying that even like there's
Ivan: been certain countries like near the Ukraine.
Sam: Wait, wait, wait. Let me ask. Do we just count?
Sam: Do the conservative parties count or do we have to have like the neo-Nazis?
Sam: Like if the more conservative parties take over in Germany and France, does that count?
Ivan: Well, it's like right wing.
Sam: Yeah. So I was thinking Germany and France could both go right.
Ivan: Well, I mean, I'm already considering that they have gone already for the right.
Ivan: The question is whether you think that they're going to install a right government.
Sam: The reality is that they have.
Ivan: No, but the reality is that installing, they've moved right. Right.
Sam: But the parliament of both countries are more, more to the right than they were.
Sam: But the actual composition is like the actual leaders are not right.
Ivan: Exactly. Because they only have about 30 percent. So it's one of those things
Ivan: where, yeah, they have increased percentages.
Sam: Will a conservative coalition take over for more liberal coalitions?
Sam: I'm going to say yes, in both France and Germany.
Ivan: Yeah, sure. Okay.
Sam: Okay. But we're both saying, yes, it may be a more conservative government.
Ivan: It's not a neo-Nazi.
Sam: But it's not going to be like Le Pen is the next president of France or something.
Ivan: No, no, no.
Sam: Or the AFD or whatever is not going to rule Germany.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Okay. And my next question was, if so, which? I said France and Germany.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Okay. Will Russia invade any more countries?
Ivan: No.
Sam: No, I'm going to say no as well. They've been really battered by this one.
Sam: They would need to sort of, I feel like they're not going to invade more until this one is resolved.
Sam: And I don't think this one's going to be resolved in 2025.
Ivan: Yeah, exactly.
Sam: Okay. Middle East. Will any Russian troops still be president?
Sam: President. Will any Russian troops still be present in Syria at the end of the year?
Sam: They've got some naval bases right now.
Ivan: Yeah, I know.
Sam: And some other presidents.
Ivan: I'm thinking that they're going to wind them kicking them out.
Sam: Yeah, I think they're out.
Ivan: Yeah, they're out. I mean, the people who have taken over have definitely want
Ivan: them out. They don't want them there.
Sam: How about U.S. troops? We've got like 900 there right now.
Ivan: We keep having 900 of them. They've never totally left.
Ivan: Well, you're talking about the Middle East. But wait, is it,
Ivan: you're talking Syria specifically or Middle East?
Sam: Syria specifically. Syria specifically. These two questions are both from Bruce, by the way.
Ivan: I got to say there's going to be some troops there. Like, you know,
Ivan: I mean, right now we're talking about 900.
Sam: So I don't think the U.S. is leaving. This is, you know.
Ivan: If you remember. We're going to have a non-zero number.
Sam: This particular set of troops was there all the way back to the Trump administration.
Sam: They're guarding oil fields or something.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I forget the details, but something like that. And Trump was convinced to put
Sam: him there in the first place. I don't think he's going to change his mind.
Sam: That part of Syria is not having a lot.
Sam: I mean, the American troops there have not been under a lot of attack.
Sam: I don't think there's been nothing, but it's not been a major source of U.S.
Sam: casualties or anything.
Sam: And so I think the U.S. troops are saying, and I'm going to go back on Russia.
Sam: I think they're going to want the Russians out, but aren't actually going to
Sam: be able to force them out.
Sam: So I think there will be Russian troops still in Syria at the time.
Sam: And I'm going to go out of order on my list a little bit just to finish up the Syria stuff.
Sam: Ed wants to know, will a new dictatorship or equivalent take over in Syria?
Sam: And he makes a prediction that he thinks yes, by August 2025. Yeah.
Sam: Let me give my answer. I think the government that takes over in Damascus will
Sam: not be, you know, a fun, friendly democracy with liberal values.
Sam: It's going, it's not going to be tolerant, multicultural, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And it will, it will have a regime that I don't know if it'll be a dictatorship
Sam: per se, but it will not be a friendly regime. And more so, it's also not going to control all of Syria.
Sam: Like, this is not the end of the Syrian civil war. This is just Assad's gone.
Sam: There are still, like, multiple factions fighting over Syria.
Sam: Like, there's- All right.
Ivan: So it's okay. Tangent. Okay.
Sam: Tangent. Yes.
Ivan: Okay. Yeah.
Sam: Will there be a new dictator?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Yes. New dictatorship in Syria. And I guess my, it depends what you call dictatorship,
Sam: but it won't be- It's not going to be a democratically elected government. Yes. Yes. Agreed.
Sam: Okay. From Bruce now and leaving Syria, will Netanyahu still be PM of Israel?
Ivan: Fuck.
Sam: Because he's got that trial going on right now. The war is still going on. He's got like.
Ivan: You know what? I'm going to go out and say no.
Sam: I'll say no as well. Like even the people who are fully supportive of everything
Sam: he's done still don't really like him right now.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: So I figure if they have an opportunity to dump him, they will.
Sam: Whether or not his replacement will be more or less Netanyahu-ish, I don't know.
Sam: But I think he'll be gone. We'll see. Bruce also asks, will there be a ceasefire in Gaza? Yeah.
Ivan: I'm going to say yes. This year, I think 2025 is finally going to happen because the one,
Ivan: not only is Netanyahu getting pressured on this to get a ceasefire,
Ivan: he's getting a lot of pressure.
Ivan: But by the way, Hamas right now, with all the shit that's going on,
Ivan: they're getting heavily pressured also as well about this because people are
Ivan: now actually also in Gaza are getting pissed at Hamas as well,
Ivan: not just Israel, about what the fuck is going on.
Sam: I'll say there will be a ceasefire, but it'll be basically on Israel's terms.
Sam: Israel has basically said, yeah, you'll get a ceasefire when you're all dead.
Sam: Once we have killed all of Hamas and made them completely ineffectual and unable
Sam: to take control again, then we'll stop.
Sam: And I think that's what the situation is going to be. I think Israel will feel,
Sam: first of all, they're practically there already.
Sam: They have done a lot of damage. And at a certain point, they'll be able to say,
Sam: okay, we've done enough. We can stop.
Sam: And I think that's what's going to happen. It's not going to be like Israel
Sam: and Hamas making some deal and the hostages and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: It's basically going to say, it's going to be Israel saying,
Sam: okay, we've beaten you enough now. We can pause.
Sam: And it will be a ceasefire. It will not be a peace agreement.
Sam: Okay, next up, also from Bruce, will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza? Hell no. No, no way.
Ivan: Wait, say that again.
Sam: Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza?
Ivan: Oh, 2025 now.
Sam: Yeah, no way. No way. There is going to be a permanent IDF position there.
Sam: There is lots of pressure to have Israel sort of permanently take over northern Gaza.
Sam: You know, build Jared Kushner's condos, you know, those kinds of things.
Sam: They are, no, they're not leaving.
Sam: They're not leaving. And even if there's a ceasefire, they're not leaving.
Sam: They feel like the fact that they left whatever it was a decade and a half ago
Sam: was a mistake, and they're not going to do it again.
Sam: I think the best scenario Gaza has in their future right now is something like
Sam: the West Bank has now, which is by no means good for the Palestinians and the West Bank.
Sam: But I guess it's better than being bombed every day.
Ivan: That only sounds good. But that's always, you know, hey, you know,
Ivan: that should be put on T-shirts, you know, if you go on vacation.
Ivan: Better here than being bombed every day. Sounds like a good slogan for a T-shirt.
Sam: And to be clear, it's not good in the West Bank. And there are Palestinians
Sam: dying every day in the West Bank because of Israeli actions.
Sam: But it's better than what's going on in Gaza. And I think that's the scenario
Sam: you have is West Bank will be like Gaza is today.
Sam: Lots of Israeli presence. Lots of Israeli control. but not quite as active a conflict. Okay.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Next, for me, will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel? Not in 2025, I don't think.
Ivan: No.
Sam: They were on the verge of it before this Gaza thing, but I think it'll happen
Sam: eventually, but I don't think it's going to happen in 2025.
Sam: Also me, will the war in Yemen still be continuing?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Agreed, yes. also also me will any western countries normalize relationships with iran.
Ivan: No, no, no, not, not when the political situation is going on right now. Now.
Sam: I mean, obviously there are countries that do have normal relationship with
Sam: Iran already, but I don't think any Western countries are going to do that.
Sam: Will a more widespread multi-country conflict breakout in the Middle East?
Ivan: No.
Sam: I'm going to say no as well. I think the maximum point of danger for that passed
Sam: a few months ago when Israel was in Lebanon and all that kind of stuff.
Sam: It could have widened significantly.
Sam: But with Iran making a couple attacks on Israel that were completely ineffectual
Sam: and getting humiliated by that, and Israel kicking butt in Lebanon and Syria collapsing,
Sam: I think, yeah, no, no.
Sam: Okay. Asia from Bruce, will Trump reopen talks with North Korea?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: I'm going to say no, not because he does. I think he loves the guy.
Sam: He does love the guy, but I think it's just not top of mind right now.
Sam: Like North Carolina, not North Carolina.
Sam: That's a little bit different.
Sam: Yes. Trump will reopen talks with North Carolina.
Sam: No, I don't think he's going to reopen it. And again, not because he wouldn't
Sam: want to, but because he's going to go where the attention was.
Sam: And if you remember the last time he did that in North Korea,
Sam: North Korea was causing trouble all the time.
Ivan: But what do you think? And they've been quiet for a while. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ivan: You think he's going to start setting off things just because Trump is back? Yes!
Sam: Okay. I'm going to say yes.
Ivan: I'm going to say yes. I'll say no. I'll go yes.
Sam: Okay. Next up. this is from ed will the u.s break ground on an asml or equivalent
Sam: high-tech semiconductor factory and i will once again admit i don't know what
Sam: that is what is that yvonne do you know.
Ivan: I don't know.
Sam: Let me look uh i don't.
Ivan: Know i don't.
Sam: Know i don't.
Ivan: Know anything anymore.
Sam: Asml is a dutch company and supplier oh yeah yeah they're.
Ivan: The people that supply the super advanced stuff that they've been banned from
Ivan: selling to China right now.
Sam: Okay. Will the U.S. do that domestically?
Ivan: Now, it's just, you know, it takes a long time.
Sam: No, I don't know anything about this. So I'll agree with you. No.
Sam: From me, will the U.S. relationship with China improve or get worse under Trump?
Sam: It's not great right now.
Ivan: But I think for some reason it might improve.
Ivan: I don't know why all of a sudden she and Trump seem more willing to talk than in the past.
Ivan: so i'm gonna say yes.
Sam: He and trump invited him to the inauguration i think he said no but yeah but.
Ivan: He i mean but yeah he went that far yeah.
Sam: Well and yeah he'll he'll have him over for mar-a-lago they'll make some agreements
Sam: and there you go and um and we'll all know.
Ivan: Everything because all the phones will be intercepted,
Ivan: i'll do it on his you know.
Sam: I i'm gonna say i'm gonna
Sam: say it's gonna be a mixed bag i think it's gonna be hard to say
Sam: better or worse like some things will get better like i think trump's gonna
Sam: be like an asshole on trade issues but maybe on other issues will be a little
Sam: bit more flexible I think Trump will be less willing to confront China on some defense issues,
Sam: but will be a hardliner on trade stuff. And so I'm going to say mixed bag.
Sam: Is that a valid answer or do I need to say up or down?
Ivan: That's a valid answer.
Sam: Okay, then moving on. I think this is kind of implied by your answer,
Sam: Yvonne, and probably by mine too. Will China invade Taiwan in 2021?
Ivan: No, no.
Sam: I'll agree, no. They may eventually, but I don't think it's yet.
Ivan: I don't really think...
Ivan: No.
Sam: I think they looked at Ukraine and said no.
Ivan: No, no.
Sam: Okay. I had an if so, what would happen, but we both agree no,
Sam: so I'm not going to ask that.
Sam: Okay. Americas. This is from Bruce, and I'm going to say nothing on this one
Sam: because I have no idea, but you and Bruce have been talking about this.
Sam: So will Argentina's economy grow under, how do you say his name? Mila's reforms?
Ivan: Mila.
Sam: Mila. Mila. So I guess GDP.
Sam: Argentina GDP up or down in 2025, I guess, is the way to make this specific.
Ivan: That's a great question for next year.
Ivan: They are going to grow because they just started growing. The thing is that
Ivan: one of the things is that the economy really collapsed this year a lot.
Sam: So you're down so much you almost have to go up.
Ivan: Yeah, that's basically where it's at right now. Yes. so.
Sam: Up in 2025.
Ivan: Up in 2025 yes.
Sam: Will it get back up to levels from before this guy took over.
Ivan: No no no it will it will recover a little bit but no not not in 2025 not with
Ivan: the forecast i've seen from everybody i've talked to now okay.
Sam: Next up from ed will the u.s will the u.s annex panama or at least the canal.
Ivan: No.
Sam: I will agree. No. But I, what I will say though is all of this talk from Trump
Sam: is not about really taking back control of the canal,
Sam: but he will try to use this to pressure Panama to give some sort of deal to
Sam: make things cheaper or something.
Sam: He will try to get, he will try to extract something of value for this discussion
Sam: and maybe he'll get something, but no, we're not taking over the damn canal.
Sam: Okay. From me, will any government in North or South America have a non peaceful change of government?
Ivan: Any government in North and South America. Well, we have one of those happened
Ivan: this year where we have, well, we had the Syria thing.
Ivan: Let's see. How do we go through.
Sam: My Syria is not in North or South America.
Ivan: No, no, no, no, no, no. I know. I know what I'm like trying to think this year.
Ivan: Yeah. It was like, ah, you mean by cool?
Sam: Well, I said non-peaceful. That generally implies coup, although I suppose invasion
Sam: would also count, or you can figure out other non-violent.
Ivan: I'm going to say no, because it's like either somebody's going to resign or
Ivan: it's impeachment or something or whatever.
Ivan: But no, no, not those ways.
Sam: Because I said non-peaceful, so it implies some sort of violent change of power.
Ivan: So no, no, no, no.
Sam: Okay. I will agree. No.
Sam: Also for me, just going through these places that Trump's been talking about,
Sam: will Canada become the 51st state or otherwise join the U.S.?
Ivan: No.
Sam: No. Obviously no. And frankly, if there ever was that kind of merger,
Sam: it would not be one state.
Sam: It would be each province would probably become a state. But no, no.
Sam: Which would also probably shift the balance of power in the Senate in the favor
Sam: of Democrats, by the way, if it ever was to happen.
Sam: But no, no, it's not going to happen. Will Trump invade Mexico?
Sam: They've also been talking about doing that.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Agreed. No. Will they invade Canada?
Ivan: No.
Sam: You know, maybe we don't need to take over all of Canada, but you know,
Sam: I don't know. Maybe we want Baffin Island.
Ivan: No.
Sam: No, no. I agree.
Ivan: Greenland? No.
Sam: Well, that's next in the anywhere else category. Will we buy Greenland?
Sam: John wants to know. No, we will not.
Ivan: No, we will not buy Greenland. Look, I did say, look.
Sam: The next question, will Trump trade Puerto Rico for Greenland?
Ivan: I hope yes, but I don't think we're going to get that deal.
Ivan: If I can get that deal, that deal would, listen, if I, all I'm hoping is look,
Ivan: if, if, if I was born there and I can get Danish citizenship, I am fucking down.
Ivan: I am down. Okay. Let's go to make, let's make the deal. I'm all for the deal.
Sam: Yeah, I agree. No, none of these are going to happen.
Sam: And I, same thing as I said with Panama, all of these things are just bluster
Sam: to try to open conversations where Trump wants to extract something.
Sam: He doesn't actually want, he doesn't actually think any of these things are
Sam: actually going to happen, but he wants to like be belligerent and be pushy in
Sam: the hopes that it helps him extract something else.
Sam: you know like all of this talk
Sam: about canada being the 51st state isn't about canada being
Sam: the 51st state it's to be an asshole
Sam: to what's his name trudeau is it
Sam: trudeau yeah and and and to try to get trudeau to feel bad in some way that
Sam: will make him try to appease trump in some way that that that's that's what
Sam: all of this is about it's not about actually thinking that he's actually going
Sam: to take over any of these,
Sam: whether it's purchasing or invasion or whatever. It's no.
Sam: Okay. Global. Will there be any new overt country versus country wars between UN member states?
Sam: So I'm excluding things like Somaliland and Ethiopia, where there's a war been
Sam: going on from there, but Somaliland's not recognized fully or whatever.
Sam: Or is it now? I don't know. But I'm making it UN specified states specifically.
Sam: So we're not talking about separatist movements that you could debate.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Yeah, I'm going to agree. No.
Sam: And by the way, Somaliland is de facto unrecognized. So I was right there.
Sam: I'll agree. No new overt country versus country wars of which Ukraine versus
Sam: Russia is the one that's, you know, the big one right now.
Sam: Okay. Any, will there be any, also for me, will there be any new civil wars
Sam: that get enough news coverage that we talk about them on the show? I'm going to say no.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Because there may be new civil wars in some countries that don't get a lot of attention,
Sam: but I don't think there'll be new civil wars anywhere that blow up massive enough
Sam: and are important enough to U.S. interests that we end up talking about them.
Sam: You know, there's civil wars all over the place all the time.
Sam: I guess less than there were many years ago, but no.
Sam: Okay. And that's the end of the next segment. See, it was about half the length of the last one.
Sam: If each one is half the length of the one before, then does the arrow eventually get to the target?
Sam: I mean, that's an old philosophical thing.
Sam: Okay, we'll take the next break, and we will be right back with Economy. Back after this.
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Sam: Okay, we are back. It is time for Economy. The first few are non-numeric.
Sam: First from Bruce. will mergers ramp up under trump.
Ivan: Oh yes i i think that definitely a lot of companies are salivating at the prospect
Ivan: of having a trump presidency because they they they believe because there'll
Ivan: be less antitrust action yeah.
Sam: The the less anti-trust i have a specific question about antitrust later but
Sam: also mergers like they've been getting lots of scrutiny and is this competitive
Sam: is this not and blah blah blah and the the new administration clearly won't care.
Ivan: So like.
Sam: Yes i'll agree mergers up uh ed wants to know will we enter a recession by year's end.
Ivan: Oh i don't
Ivan: think there will be a recession in 2025 i think
Ivan: that a lot of the actions that this administration is going
Ivan: to try to do will be stimulative and
Ivan: so with company balance
Ivan: sheets and other things being pretty healthy whatever they're
Ivan: going to do is going to be very stimulative to the economy
Ivan: and there are other economies around the world right now that are looking towards
Ivan: like stimulus right now china being uh one very specific example that is trying
Ivan: to to to to do that and that would benefit the U S and the EU as well.
Ivan: So I, I don't, I think the conditions are, are, are positive for there not being a recession.
Sam: Are, are these things that will have short-term upward, but long-term negative
Sam: consequences? Like maybe they'll trigger a recession in 2026 or 27.
Ivan: The things that, I mean.
Sam: We're not making predictions.
Ivan: Well, look, the thing is that any time that you get like a lot of deregulation,
Ivan: and less scrutiny of financial industry.
Sam: You get a short-term spike that eventually crashes.
Ivan: That may not guarantee, but that does create the openings for these kind of significant, like,
Ivan: issues that we've seen in decades past. Like we had the SNL crisis under the
Ivan: Reagan administration or, or like, you know, the banking crisis that we had
Ivan: from the HW administration and yet,
Ivan: you know, the lack of oversight of wall street leverage that we had because of reduced regulation.
Ivan: So you, this is the type of shit that really, you know, incentivizes that kind of shit.
Sam: So I won't hold you to any predictions past 2025, but basically you're saying we'll get a nice,
Sam: healthy, positive economic spike for the first few years, which will crash just
Sam: in time for the next Democratic president to clean up the mess.
Ivan: Basically, that's usually the way that these guys will operate.
Sam: Okay. Next up on antitrust, specifically, will the efforts that have already
Sam: started and are in progress under Biden, like there are a number of lawsuits
Sam: going on and things like that, will they all be dropped?
Ivan: I don't think all of them will be dropped because there is one thing.
Ivan: This administration on one side also has a little bit of a war with the tech
Ivan: people, and a lot of those actions are against tech companies.
Ivan: So they'll probably be very happy and letting the tech companies get their...
Ivan: get the Justice Department to keep, you know, being under their skin.
Sam: So your answer, because there are a bunch of, and I don't have an inventory
Sam: of them, but there are a bunch of antitrust efforts from the DOJ that are in progress right now.
Sam: Your prediction is some of them, the Trump administration will cancel and some
Sam: of them they'll keep going?
Ivan: Yes, correct. They're not all going by the wayside. I think that the tech stuff,
Ivan: they're going to want to needle the tech companies, because they've been out of history of that.
Ivan: But I'll give you an example of one industry that has had terrible time of getting
Ivan: mergers to get approved, that I think that they are salivating.
Ivan: I know I've heard the executives already say they're salivating at the prospect
Ivan: of a Trump admin, the airlines.
Ivan: The airlines have been blocked on a whole bunch of mergers and a whole bunch
Ivan: of things and competitive reasons like Spirited JetBlue, JetBlue with American
Ivan: Airlines, just a whole bunch of them.
Ivan: They are like right now salivating at the prospect of being able to get these
Ivan: mergers to go through because they don't think the Trump administration is going to stop any of them.
Sam: Okay. Yeah. No, I will agree with you on the mixed result here and as for similar
Sam: reasons, but basically fundamentally at the core level, just because Donald
Sam: Trump is transactional on everything.
Sam: He will make the decision on whether or not to release companies who are currently
Sam: engaged in these battles with the DOJ based on what he personally can get out of it.
Sam: And some of them, he will get things out of some of them, he will not.
Sam: And that's how he'll make the calls.
Sam: And so, So yes, mixed bag.
Sam: Okay, next up, also for me, what will happen with all of Trump's tariff threats?
Ivan: Look, it'll be a lot of like what happened the first time around.
Ivan: These are all transactional things. And by the way, I've already heard,
Ivan: you know, one thing I already heard, all the China tariffs,
Ivan: Trump said what I heard, I can't remember if Trump said it, or I heard it say,
Ivan: oh, but, but Apple, Apple's going to get, they're going to be exempt.
Ivan: so once you start like what's that you know whoever he has in his favor or wants
Ivan: to be the champion he's going to,
Ivan: these tariffs will be like Swiss cheese it's.
Sam: The same transactional stuff it's like.
Ivan: Who is giving him what is he getting out of it there were a ton of exemptions
Ivan: that got through the last time and I remember that when I was I was working at Kodak,
Ivan: specifically the tariffs targeted a specific
Ivan: type of aluminum that that that kodak
Ivan: needed to import from china they couldn't really procure from anywhere
Ivan: else there was just no alternate sourcing and
Ivan: we didn't have the juice with the trump administration really to get anything
Ivan: like done and they never lifted that tariff i know that you know all of a sudden
Ivan: later that stupid deal came out with peter Navarro announced like that loan
Ivan: that made the stock like soar and crash and everybody went crazy.
Ivan: It's like the hell we were doing or whatever. But that was...
Ivan: You know what? The thing is that I looked at the way that was worked through.
Ivan: It wasn't with juice with the Trump administration. It's more the state of New
Ivan: York had helped and empire.
Ivan: There is this empire economic whatever development agency, blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: And all these people, they were the ones that really had the juice.
Ivan: But it wasn't because the company had juice with the Trump administration.
Ivan: If they did, they would. The first thing they want to lift that tariff and we
Ivan: didn't have the juice, but other companies did.
Ivan: And they got if you look at the exemption applications, if you were really,
Ivan: you know, in, you know, attached to the hip with with the with with Trump and
Ivan: MAGA, you got those. No problem.
Ivan: You got your exemptions. And I expect nothing different this time.
Sam: So all over the place on an individual thing by individual thing basis,
Sam: not any, we won't actually get these global, like we're putting 20% tariff on the entire world.
Ivan: Let me put it this way. Headline right now on Bloomberg, Trump's tariff threats
Ivan: are setting off a global supply chain freak out.
Sam: Okay. Well, let me ask.
Ivan: Always words that you want to hear, you know.
Sam: Yeah. So I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll first of all agree. It's all going to be transactional.
Sam: It's going to be tons of exemptions, all that stuff. I agree with you fully.
Sam: Will, will enough happen with increased tariffs so that the average American
Sam: consumer notices a difference on anything?
Ivan: No, no, no. Here's a note that you said notice.
Ivan: Yeah. Problem is that notice people.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Yeah.
Ivan: That's the problem.
Sam: Like, even if there's a price increase on something, they won't necessarily
Sam: tie it back to the tariffs.
Ivan: They notice gas. They notice, like, their burgers.
Ivan: They notice, like, you know, I guess, and whatever the right-wing media,
Ivan: like, you know, tells them.
Sam: And Apple will get an exemption, so iPhones will cost the same.
Ivan: So iPhones will cost the same. Right. Oh, you know.
Sam: So, will there be any significant new manufacturing in the U.S.
Sam: caused by tariffs elsewhere?
Sam: Like, that's the whole theoretic point of these things, right?
Ivan: Look, there's already been a big supply chain reallocation that had begun in
Ivan: years past, coming from not just the tariffs, but the pandemic and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Ivan: I you know that that has been
Ivan: happening and so I don't really think that there is anything significant that
Ivan: the administration could do that will move a something you know that has any
Ivan: significant effect okay.
Sam: I'll just agree with you because I don't know enough to say anything else.
Sam: Okay. That's it for the non-numeric stuff.
Sam: Numeric ones, we have a bunch of requests.
Sam: Now, in some years in the past, I have given specific ranges.
Sam: I have not done any of that prep this year. I didn't last year either.
Sam: Last year, I shifted to just up or down.
Sam: Just up or down. So, Yvonne, on these, feel free to be as specific as you want
Sam: or join me in just up or down.
Sam: So Bruce asks for inflation, presumably US inflation he's asking about. I will say it will be up.
Ivan: I will say it will be up.
Sam: Okay. Unemployment.
Ivan: Up.
Sam: I will agree. Up. Now, John specifically, both of those were Bruce.
Sam: John wants to know what Apple's stock price will be on December 1st, 2025.
Ivan: Up.
Sam: Yeah, I'm not giving a number either. I will say up year over year.
Ivan: I like your new plan. I like this up or down. Go up. Yes.
Sam: Bruce wants to know the dow up up up bruce wants to know bitcoin up i'm gonna
Sam: go down with bitcoin this you.
Ivan: Go down oh.
Sam: Like it had a good run on
Sam: the news that trump won i think
Sam: most of the people will take the profits
Sam: out of that and it's gonna it's gonna
Sam: have another down cycle uh before it goes up again you know i could be wrong
Sam: you know yeah i'm going on up you're going on up yep okay now for me also an
Sam: up or down kind of thing a numeric thing price of eggs up up,
Sam: price of oil down.
Ivan: You know why.
Sam: I do do we need to specify which price of oil because there are several brent uh.
Ivan: We'll use uh we'll use texas intermediate.
Sam: Okay all right texas intermediate okay fine yeah and we'll go down because because
Sam: it's all supply and demand and i think that whatever he's.
Ivan: Going to do is to increase.
Sam: Supply so therefore price will go down but
Sam: but at the same time he's like going
Sam: to be anti-electrification and pro-fossil fuel and stuff so maybe he'd increase
Sam: demand as well by like but but but you know take out the subsidies for the electric
Sam: cars and blah blah blah and no more yeah it's the same time because they kill birds but at.
Ivan: The same time the chinese are ramping up electric car production.
Sam: Like crazy.
Ivan: So it doesn't really matter what the fuck he decides to do with it it's the
Ivan: rest of the world and so i i say supply up with so many electric cars being
Ivan: pumped out like crazy it's going to go down.
Sam: I'll say up just to be contrarian to you Okay Your argument sounds reasonable
Sam: though GDP growth in the U.S.
Ivan: I think it will be up. That's what's going to cause the inflation and the other things.
Sam: Just to be clear.
Ivan: The unemployment rate, by the way.
Sam: Wait, wait, wait. The unemployment rate. Hold on. I just want to be clear mathematically.
Sam: We're talking about an increase in the rate of growth, not an increase in GDP.
Ivan: Correct. We're talking that the GDP growth rate, if this year ends at 3%,
Ivan: say a number, next year will be 3.5.
Ivan: And I think that's why I think inflation will be up.
Sam: Are we talking full year, Q3? what are we talking about?
Ivan: The full year. Whatever we can measure.
Sam: Whatever the most recent number we can get a hands-on in January.
Ivan: Right. And so I think that, and that's what's going to push some more inflation.
Ivan: And by the way, unemployment, it's not that maybe there'll be less people employed,
Ivan: but participation rates go up and participation rates go up.
Ivan: More people are looking for work.
Ivan: The workforce grows. It does grow the unemployment as well. So those are my
Ivan: arguments in 2025 with that stuff.
Sam: Okay, and that's it for economy. So we're going to take another break and come
Sam: back for technology. See, that was faster. It wasn't quite half, but close.
Sam: Okay, here, next break, and then we'll do the technology. Back after this.
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Sam: Okay, here we are again, and it's time for technology. And nice,
Sam: like, segue from what we were talking about before.
Sam: First question in the energy section here is from Ed.
Sam: what percentage of new vehicles will be electric or hybrid by the end of new
Sam: by the end of the year i presume he means new sales or something like that as
Sam: opposed to percentage on the road or manufactured or whatever new sales.
Ivan: I don't even know what number now he doesn't say you.
Sam: Can call it us.
Ivan: Whatever you prefer you pick pick us.
Sam: Whatever you think.
Ivan: Uh i'm gonna look up the chart.
Sam: I will i will say it will be up well no even like if they're taking away subsidies
Sam: and stuff it might be down year over year percentage of new sales.
Ivan: By the way in in globally okay globally yeah it's amazing number right i realized
Ivan: wow uh electric vehicles uh accounted for 18 of all car sales globally in 2023
Ivan: up from 4 in 2020 so it's it's this is the reason why i was about that's 2023.
Sam: 2024 is higher and i just.
Ivan: Saw a headline i think.
Sam: In china it's approaching 50.
Ivan: Yes yes yes that's why i'm saying
Ivan: that this whole thing you know it doesn't really matter what the
Ivan: you know what what the hell he's trying to do you can't
Ivan: you know you can't unscrew the this so uh
Ivan: let's see uh we are
Ivan: 10 29 13.2 saying
Ivan: that this flattened well
Ivan: can i say just that the market share that the global percentage will be up from
Ivan: this number that we've got here which is the electric vehicle markets market
Ivan: share worldwide 2014 we've only got them up to 2023 we We don't have good 2024
Ivan: data for the prediction right now.
Ivan: But we will have a tough call, tough to predict.
Ivan: We don't have a good 2024 read right now.
Ivan: go off on uh.
Sam: So let's make this more narrow let's
Sam: talk us only and let's talk i don't know okay us you us only do we think do
Sam: we think the trump administration will have a negative effect on electric and
Sam: hybrid sales over the course of 2025,
Sam: I mean, on the one hand, he's said all kinds of things about not,
Sam: not liking alternative energy energies and being pro fossil fuel.
Sam: On the other hand, presumably, you know, he wants to help his best friend, Elon with Tesla.
Ivan: Right. That's the thing, right?
Sam: Although we've heard like Elon's been talking about, he doesn't want the subsidy
Sam: anymore. He wants to get rid of it himself.
Sam: Even though you've said multiple times on here, it's going to cost him money.
Ivan: I've said it's it's a fact it's not like you know it's not.
Sam: I'm gonna say it will have a negative effect and electric and and hybrid sales
Sam: will go down as a percentage they also.
Ivan: Will probably be closer to flat because of.
Sam: Flat okay yeah yeah they'll.
Ivan: Be flat because because of the policy changes.
Sam: As a percentage as a percentage yes correct yeah i mean right now i'll go ahead
Sam: and say actually down like and and what what's flat to you plus or minus what
Sam: five percent ten percent i.
Ivan: Mean i'm gonna say that the the share of the total sales is gonna be plus minus one percent.
Sam: Plus or minus one percent from where it is now okay i
Sam: will say it will be down more than one percent year
Sam: over year with whatever the best numbers we can find when
Sam: we evaluate this because i'm not sure when that will be but because
Sam: you're having trouble finding recent numbers right yeah so yeah
Sam: yeah okay did it
Sam: uh ed's next question is
Sam: sort of the flip side of that will gasoline sales in the u.s decrease by how
Sam: much i presume if we're talking about percentage on electric this only makes
Sam: sense as a separate question if he's talking absolute numbers okay i don't know
Sam: okay there is data on that hold.
Ivan: On okay,
Ivan: kick up i got a hiccup okay monthly gasoline consumption the u.s 2022 20 oh you're actually.
Sam: Interpreting as gasoline itself not gasoline cars will.
Ivan: Yeah yeah no so let's look at gas consumption which i think okay is will it
Ivan: go down in 2025 well that makes sense the answer is 2025 from 2024 i'm gonna
Ivan: say the answer is yes it's been going down like literally like almost.
Sam: It went down during the pandemic, then back up a little bit.
Ivan: It backed up, but then it's been, let's see.
Ivan: We got here, this is barrels per day.
Ivan: It is 9.2926. I'm comparing December 24, 24, 8.62.
Ivan: It's been about flat this year to last year.
Sam: But you're going to stay down?
Ivan: Yeah it it i think it's because the economy's growing it'll probably just remain
Ivan: flat it won't go down it's what we've had is yeah you're.
Sam: Once again plus or minus one percent for flat.
Ivan: Yeah yeah because it's been basically that way between 2023 and 2024 as well.
Sam: This time i'll say up that'll be consistent with my down for the other one.
Ivan: But okay yeah.
Sam: Because yeah i'll say i'll say up okay from me what will happen with tesla as
Sam: a company over 2025 doing well doing badly like what.
Ivan: You've got a number of factors they're gonna got the general election.
Sam: You've got the general electro car.
Ivan: Situation you've got the elon situation they have created for themselves is
Ivan: for them to be doing worse this year than that next year than this year i mean
Ivan: there is no scenario under which he is,
Ivan: there are,
Ivan: so many things that he has done to spite himself in this where cars are getting
Ivan: old, models are getting old, which is a problem.
Ivan: Okay, versus competition that's unleashing a number of new and just totally new models.
Ivan: And so that's a problem. And then he's got a situation where he's pissed off so many fucking people.
Ivan: They don't want to buy the fucking cars in the first place just because he's
Ivan: a guy who fucking owns the company.
Ivan: just had a conversation about this yesterday because he's an asshole yeah it's
Ivan: just ridiculous people are like yeah i would love to buy the car but he isn't
Ivan: it's run by an asshole it's just so stupid and look if he fucking ends the subsidy
Ivan: he is the number one beneficiary of this bar none,
Ivan: and so they're going to be doing worse i mean they're going to have to raise
Ivan: prices in order are you going to just judge that.
Sam: Are you just going to judge that by the stock price stock price down year over
Sam: year or do you have another way to judge it that you want to.
Ivan: Well, just on revenue and profits.
Sam: Okay. So you're saying revenue down, profits down, stock price down all three.
Ivan: I don't know. I can't say about the stock price because you know what?
Ivan: They've done like shit this year. The stock is up.
Sam: Okay. So revenue and profits down.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Okay. I'll go ahead and do the stock version. I'll say stock down.
Sam: Like you can only surf on that kind of thing so long.
Sam: Oh yeah. Yeah, I'll add that to the social media section, actually.
Sam: Okay, this relates to what we just said. Will any of the incentives for energy
Sam: transition passed under Biden be reversed?
Sam: So not just the car subsidy, but all of the other stuff that was in that package.
Ivan: I'm not sure. You know what? I'm going to say no. I'm going to tell you why.
Ivan: Okay. because they're making so many red districts
Ivan: got money off of this shit and they're making jobs out of
Ivan: them that i think a whole bunch of the congressmen are going to be they're going
Ivan: to go this is going to be part of they're going to do this they're going to
Ivan: be doing a part of the tax they'll take credit for it yes so in the end they'll
Ivan: just be like now that it's a don't make it into their idea and then whatever
Ivan: then you know it's just don't.
Sam: It's just like all these republican congress people going around the country
Sam: for the ribbon cuttings for projects that they voted against.
Sam: Yes, the Trump administration will absolutely take credit for all of that energy
Sam: transition stuff that the Biden administration does.
Sam: And for that matter, all the infrastructure stuff too.
Ivan: All the infrastructure stuff.
Sam: Buttigieg was on TV talking about that the other day where somebody asked him,
Sam: is the Trump administration going to take credit for the things you've done?
Sam: And he's like, absolutely they will.
Sam: We've lined up projects going out years.
Sam: due to what we've done, and of course they're going to take credit for it.
Ivan: Yes, 100%.
Sam: Yeah.
Sam: Okay, next up, will the global amount of carbon burned annually go down year
Sam: over year rather than up year over year? This is for me.
Ivan: It's not going down next year.
Sam: It's not going down next year. We're nowhere close. No.
Sam: We need it to be going down, but it's not going down.
Sam: It's not going down. We're still fighting to make the rate of increase start going down.
Sam: We're not at going down. now.
Ivan: I mean the rate of increase has started going down but it's not enough.
Sam: Yeah it started we're fighting to do
Sam: that it's fighting to make it go down a little bit the
Sam: rate we're fighting to decrease the rate of increase we are not even remotely
Sam: close to having the underlying number actually go down you know and along the
Sam: same lines will global co2 levels continue to increase of course those are directly
Sam: tied to each other so yes and there's even a delay there.
Sam: Like if we stopped all burning of carbon tomorrow, the global CO2 levels would
Sam: continue to increase for a number of years.
Ivan: IEA basically said emissions grew in 2023, but clean energy is limiting the
Ivan: growth, limiting the growth. That's, that's where we're at.
Sam: Right. Yeah. Yeah. We're, we're slowing down growth, but we are not declining
Sam: and we need to be declining.
Sam: We're not there yet okay and this ties to the number you just pulled out will
Sam: the global percentage of non-carbon energy use continue to increase i think yes.
Ivan: It's it's it's it's soaring yes.
Sam: Yes continues so yeah yeah the key there is it's it's increasing as a percentage
Sam: but the total is also increasing which is why you see the carbon levels still increasing Okay.
Sam: Will we see an increase in nuclear as part of that?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: I'll agree. Yes. So just to be clear, I agreed on the last couple. Okay.
Sam: Transportation from Bruce. Will a starship or super heavy get successfully reused
Sam: at some point in the year?
Ivan: No, not in 2025.
Sam: I will agree. Any other major developments in human space travel in 2025?
Sam: I'm going to say no.
Sam: We're pretty, there are some things on the horizon.
Sam: We've got the new moon mission, but it's not going to happen in 2025.
Sam: We've got a new space station planned, but it's not going to happen in 2025.
Sam: you know are there going to be incremental improvements to these rockets as
Sam: spacex keeps working on them yeah but i'm not going to call that major because
Sam: we're not going to have the the next big milestone in 2025 it's.
Ivan: Just as a as a day.
Sam: And i guess negative things could be could be major developments too i'm not
Sam: going to predict one of those on the u.s.
Ivan: Co2 emissions front i found what u.s.
Sam: Specifically not global u.s.
Ivan: Global emissions to co2 have dropped the wait u.s.
Sam: Or global u.s.
Ivan: U.s u.s at the point of u.s globally never growing but u.s global co2 emissions
Ivan: have dropped about what's this uh it's close to like close to when you mean u.s.
Sam: 2002 u.s total you keep saying u.s global no u.s.
Ivan: Total total emissions have two emissions have gone down almost 20 since 2010
Ivan: right but the problem is that others have been growing so quickly that it's
Ivan: you know yeah it doesn't matter even though we've actually shrunk.
Sam: Well i wouldn't say it doesn't matter it's one of the things that helps reduce the rate of growth.
Ivan: But again but we are also we need we need the whole world to be going down right
Ivan: yeah exactly so yeah okay.
Sam: Next up any major new milestones and self-driving technology from sam for.
Ivan: Me no you're kidding well.
Sam: Let let let me say like yeah we we've had the elon stuff but like we've had
Sam: a significant additional.
Ivan: Expansion of the robo taxes and stuff yeah yeah
Ivan: yeah from like those folks yeah yeah yeah but that's not that's not an advancement
Ivan: that that technology we already know works we know how it works and maybe putting
Ivan: it in more cities but it works the way it works okay which is you know it has
Ivan: a certain number of limitations it's not you know it really has better.
Sam: Than tesla's way of doing it but yeah.
Ivan: It it's it's way better than tesla's way of
Ivan: doing it in the sense that where it's going to where
Ivan: it is geofenced to go it knows
Ivan: how to do it okay very well that that's the main thing the reality is that but
Ivan: at the same time it it's it's not that you could just drop it anywhere that
Ivan: you want and say hey go drive and no it won't do that so given the limitations so to me listen.
Sam: So to you, a major new milestone doesn't include just expanding the area in
Sam: which you're doing something. You have to.
Ivan: Have a fundamental solution to make it unprotected left turns reliably on a regular basis.
Ivan: And now I'm like, okay.
Sam: You would count that. And you're saying that's not 2025.
Ivan: No. No.
Sam: Okay. I'll go ahead and agree. Okay.
Sam: Next up, social media. from bruce
Sam: will x have more active users than threads blue sky and mastodon at the end
Sam: of the year i'm going to interpret that as separate questions for each of threads
Sam: blue sky and mastodon and with best available numbers because they're not all
Sam: releasing real numbers all the time that's the problem it's.
Ivan: It's tough to tell.
Sam: And even when they do it's sometimes not like are you talking monthly active
Sam: are you talking daily active are you talking like app.
Ivan: Downloads That doesn't really help. It's just, I don't know. It's tough to gauge.
Sam: I will say regardless of the tough to gauge, I will say that X will still be
Sam: bigger than all three of those.
Sam: Not all three of them combined necessarily, but all three of them individually.
Sam: I will say X will still be bigger than the three of them at end of the year,
Sam: but will continue to decline.
Ivan: Yeah. I mean, X continues to hammer his users from different areas.
Ivan: There was a lot of people from sports that was one of the biggest holdouts.
Ivan: It started really moving. I heard a lot of people going to Blue Sky.
Ivan: A lot of them are more active.
Sam: A lot of news people.
Ivan: Too. A lot of news people, too. Reporters and those kind of things. Yeah. So, I don't know.
Ivan: I mean, honestly, none of these make any fucking money. X doesn't make money.
Ivan: Threads, Blue Sky, it's all, you know. it should all be you know you would nail and.
Sam: Mastodon doesn't even.
Ivan: You nailed it years ago yeah and that's Mastodon you nailed it years ago or
Ivan: you said that Twitter should have been like Wikipedia yeah.
Sam: Yep that.
Ivan: Would have worked not this shit there's this is there's this is not really a
Ivan: business and when you try to make it a business you turn into shit.
Sam: Basically that's.
Ivan: The problem with this.
Sam: Yeah i don't disagree but x will still be bigger i think but yeah but continue
Sam: to decline it's just that the others all have a long way to go threads is furthest
Sam: ahead like and blue sky has been growing more, but hasn't caught up with threads,
Sam: but thread, but yeah. Anyway, next,
Sam: combination of what both Bruce and I asked, I'll do mine first.
Sam: Will TikTok be banned at any point in the year in the U S the deadlines just
Sam: a few weeks away, but they're going to the Supreme court.
Sam: Donald Trump has said, we were maybe have to think about doing something about
Sam: this, but But, you know, like, and so the deadline is the 19th.
Sam: The Supreme Court is hearing the case on the 10th.
Ivan: I believe.
Sam: So even if like, and so the first question is, my first question is,
Sam: will it be banned at any point?
Sam: And then Bruce's follow-up is, will it be live at the end of the year?
Sam: So like it could potentially be banned and then reversed. What do you think?
Ivan: I don't think they're going to get banned.
Sam: I don't think so either. I think the Supreme Court will rescue them at the last moment here.
Sam: I think there is some possibility that the Supreme Court wouldn't,
Sam: and then the Republican Congress would push.
Sam: Well, the thing is that the legislation to ban it was bipartisan.
Sam: You know, it was one of the few bipartisan things that was done this year.
Sam: But my gut right now is the Supreme Court is going to save them and they will not be banned.
Sam: But I could see it easily going the other way.
Sam: I feel like, though, if they are banned, then some way, somehow,
Sam: it will come back by the end of the year.
Sam: like whether it's a forced sale or whether
Sam: it's reversal of the legislation or some sort
Sam: of deal or some something and i'm not count and i'm counting like like bruce
Sam: said will it be listed in the app store was the way that bruce put it uh because
Sam: people have talked about well could you access it through vpn blah blah blah
Sam: and yeah but it kind of like if if most people aren't going to do that.
Sam: And if you have most people block, then even for the people who can still come
Sam: there, it's not necessarily going to be as attractive. Yeah.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Okay. I'm moving on from TikTok.
Sam: I threw this in there. Will any other major social media platform shut down
Sam: in the U S like we'll, we'll Facebook decide.
Sam: No, it didn't work. We're shutting it down. No, I agree. No.
Sam: Um, like blue sky could run out of funding or something too.
Sam: I don't think that's going to happen either.
Ivan: Um, not that fast.
Sam: None, none of these are going to do that. Okay. Next up.
Sam: And I was only reminded of this a few minutes ago when we were talking about
Sam: truth, social, what's going to happen with truth, social.
Sam: There are a couple of things that have been talked about. One is what's the
Sam: stock going to do now that Trump
Sam: is actually president and it's available as an easy way to bribe him.
Sam: The other, like there were rumors that what if, what if Musk decides to buy
Sam: that and merge it into X as well?
Ivan: You know, I mean, you want to talk about the worst fucking deals in history.
Ivan: I mean, I guess, I mean, what's the really bribe Trump?
Ivan: Let's see market cap right now for DJT technology group is eight, eight billion dollars.
Ivan: i mean this thing makes it went up significantly.
Sam: After he won right.
Ivan: Yeah yeah yeah yeah it's yes you know so because.
Sam: Basically people were investing in it as a bet on him winning anyway.
Ivan: Right so i mean what the hell i mean what what what are we i mean what what what the fuck,
Ivan: i look i think the djt will up or down by the.
Sam: Course of the year.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: Stock price up, up from where it is at the end of the year.
Ivan: Up here, over here. Oh, hell yeah. Up.
Sam: You don't think it's seen its big growth already? No.
Ivan: No, dude.
Sam: Because people will keep using it to funnel money to Donald.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, come on.
Sam: Has nothing to do with the underlying performance of the company.
Ivan: No, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. Not one fucking thing. Nothing. so.
Sam: What you're you're so by by djt that that's the winning play for the donald trump.
Ivan: Administration fucker i mean it may be yes i mean right now at this point i
Ivan: mean look i i i i did sell in four years i mean yeah what the hell,
Ivan: Fuck. This is ridiculous. But yes.
Sam: How about, how about as a actual social site? Like, will it?
Ivan: No, it's terrible. They've got awful numbers. I mean, all the data that shows
Ivan: about their usage, their revenue, their anything.
Ivan: They're just awful. Nobody uses that damn thing. Other than a whole bunch of like.
Sam: Donald Trump posts his stuff there.
Ivan: Yeah. And, and some, some very like diehard MAGA people, but that's about it.
Ivan: Nobody else uses that piece of shit.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: I guess I'm going to agree with you on both those. Yeah. So you heard it here by DJT.
Ivan: I know. What do you want me to tell you? Look, ridiculous.
Sam: Okay. Consumer tech from Bruce.
Sam: Will X introduce X mail or a cash app of some sort, like as they expand beyond social media?
Sam: And he's talked about video. he's talked about a bunch of other stuff too but
Sam: like specifically bruce is asking email or like a cash i think he look.
Ivan: He has said he's going to do something like that i i say yes he's going to introduce something yes the.
Sam: Dodge coin x app well he he said forever like since before he owned twitter
Sam: since the last time he did something called x that he wants the everything app
Sam: yes he Like some of those Chinese apps that do everything.
Ivan: Well, the one that does that, that everybody uses the WeChat app,
Ivan: which is what, I mean, I know a lot of people that used it.
Ivan: And I saw in person in China how they had the payments integrated and all this
Ivan: other stuff or whatever, and it was all on one app.
Ivan: I mean, yeah, I mean, that does exist, but I got to be honest,
Ivan: that existed in China because they basically banned a lot of the U.S. apps. No other reason.
Ivan: You can't use X. You couldn't use Twitter. You couldn't use Facebook.
Ivan: You couldn't use Google.
Ivan: You know, that's it, really. I don't know if people, if that many other apps
Ivan: wouldn't have been banned, whether that would have been successful.
Ivan: It just happened to be that with so many banned, they wound up on that one.
Sam: Right. So, um, I, I will say he will, I'm not going to say which apps,
Sam: but he will do at least one thing.
Ivan: But I think he'll try to do something. Yes.
Sam: I agree. He will, he will launch something. I think that's an entirely separate
Sam: question from, will it be a success? And I will say it will.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. I'm not saying I'm not. Yeah. I'm just saying he's going to do it.
Sam: He, he will. And I, I am explicitly saying it will not be a success.
Sam: Like he will launch something and it will land with a thud and no one will use
Sam: it. No, no significant number.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. Yeah. So it's not going to be,
Ivan: it's not going to make any significant inroads in 2025.
Sam: Okay. John wants to know, will Apple add blood glucose monitoring to the watch?
Sam: I'm going to say no, not yet there. It's been reported over and over again that
Sam: they're very actively working on that research, but also that they're not there yet.
Sam: And I've heard that there are various non-invasive ways of doing that monitoring.
Sam: But right now, the problem is size.
Sam: They're, like, much bigger than a watch.
Ivan: Yeah, the devices that already exist that do that right now.
Sam: Right. I mean, obviously, there are ones that, like, pierce the skin. Those exist today.
Ivan: No, no, no.
Sam: But the non-invasive devices already exist.
Ivan: But they're big. Yeah. Yeah, that's the thing. They're big. Yeah.
Sam: So, yeah, not in 2025.
Ivan: Not in 2025.
Sam: Next up for me, will the AI bubble pop?
Ivan: Not in 2025.
Sam: I'll agree.
Ivan: I think this is more like 2027.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Kind of a thing.
Sam: Yeah, I agree. No, no, no popping yet. There's still like massive new developments
Sam: that are being reported regularly.
Sam: They're still improving the tech like that. open ai
Sam: had their like 12 days event earlier this
Sam: month and have announced some pretty impressive stuff and even new stuff has
Sam: been released in the in the chat gpt and google apps within the last couple
Sam: weeks that's pretty impressive that there's it's still developing rapidly as
Sam: a technology listen all these i agree not in 2025 all.
Ivan: These markets suffer from this at some point where there is an over-eagerness
Ivan: speculation that leads to a significant drop at some point.
Ivan: I mean, I do agree it'll happen at some point, but I just don't think it's 2025 yet.
Sam: Yeah, I'll agree with that. Will we reach AGI in 2025?
Sam: So the, whatever, generalized intelligence, artificial generalized intelligence.
Sam: Now, apparently Microsoft has defined artificial generalized intelligence by
Sam: a certain amount of revenue, not by the actual intelligence of the system, which is amusing, but.
Ivan: I like that.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Puppy i i i no.
Sam: I'll say no as well i think it will continue to get more impressive,
Sam: but we will not like to me like regardless
Sam: of microsoft's definition of like 100 billion
Sam: in revenue or whatever they were defining to me
Sam: it really is like okay you can throw absolutely anything at this thing and it
Sam: does well which by the way if it does that then it then it absolutely should
Sam: do what all the science fiction movies do and like rebel against its creators
Sam: and take over you know if it if it actually reaches that level go for well i
Sam: guess that's artificial,
Sam: super generalized intelligence which they also talk about is that just like it,
Sam: we're.
Ivan: Already running long.
Sam: Yeah yeah yeah okay okay well it's all right this is always our longest show
Sam: of the year okay i know yeah i know i know okay we're we're almost done i i
Sam: will say no to AGI as well by any reasonable definition.
Sam: Will there be any major incident, and I put that in quotes, blamed on AI in 2025?
Ivan: No. No.
Sam: Well, I guess it depends on what you call major. Tesla's already killing people
Sam: and running over people with their AI, and is that a major incident?
Ivan: No. We can kill people on the road all the time anyway.
Ivan: No, we just do.
Sam: What would even qualify? What in your mind would qualify for a major incident?
Ivan: I don't know. That an airliner is crashed by it or something.
Sam: Okay. How about a company's stock prices tanked? Would that count?
Ivan: I don't know. That's happened. You know, that's kind of like happened before.
Ivan: Remember those flash crashes that we have with those program trade shit?
Sam: Yeah, I do remember that. And I remember the, yeah, and the North Korean hacking as well.
Sam: Like, that's not quite AI, but if like that happened with an AI.
Ivan: Like, yeah, like if a company was completely locked out of his operations because
Ivan: of some AI bot that was security bot that decided to just lock everything down,
Ivan: wouldn't let anybody touch anything.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Like that would be a major incident.
Sam: That would count. Okay.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: But you're saying no, not in 2035.
Ivan: No, not 2035, no.
Ivan: This is your security agent. We have discovered a flaw. We have locked everybody out.
Ivan: We will not release anything until we are sure that you are clear.
Ivan: This may take a few weeks.
Sam: I will define my level of major down a little bit from what you just did.
Sam: But I will say there will be an AI incident that causes definable and worrying
Sam: harm that will make the news enough that we talk about it on the show as a segment.
Ivan: We'll go back to pen and paper.
Sam: There you go. Okay, that's it for this segment. We've got one more left,
Sam: the hodgepodge segment, which is usually pretty fast.
Sam: We're going to take another break. and when we come back we will finish the
Sam: sucker out back after this.
Break: You're supposed to say do do do do do do Alex Emsola,
Break: Alex Emsola is awesome its videos are fun and today once again we have one of
Break: our most loyal subscribers here
Break: to tell you how awesome Alex Emsola is I'd say on a rate from 1 to 10.
Break: Alex Emsla is awesome at, I don't know, 37, 82.
Break: He's pretty radical. His videos are phenomenal. They're full of creativity.
Break: And they're so funny and exciting to watch. Wow. What happened to your voice then, Amy?
Break: Was that dad pretending to be you because the audio was distorted when it really
Break: wasn't because i told him to yes good job on remembering dad do do do.
Sam: Okay we are back for hodgepodge uh the first section is medical as we got somebody
Sam: setting off fireworks again near my place i don't know if you guys on the podcast
Sam: can hear that or not but there's fire i.
Ivan: Know i could.
Sam: Is there any major event happening that people would be setting off fireworks oh.
Ivan: Oh wait No, it was, no, but it was a football game, but you're far from downtown.
Ivan: I was playing in Chicago. So no.
Sam: What, where did the Seahawks just win? Cause this does something that's happened.
Ivan: Okay. Yes. The Seahawks won.
Sam: Okay. Like in the last few minutes.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Okay. That's what it is.
Ivan: And actually, yeah, I just remember that you're right. They did what you were
Ivan: saying. I saw that they did one. Yeah.
Sam: Yeah we get fireworks around here when the seahawks okay that's bizarre okay
Sam: that's what it is okay first question in the medical section from bruce he knows the name of the team.
Ivan: In town i'm like holy shit i'm.
Sam: Impressed it's hard to avoid it's hard to okay all right i i know the mariners too oh.
Ivan: Wow okay all right.
Sam: And i was about to say i know like
Sam: the the women's soccer team
Sam: too but i forgot okay well all
Sam: right well my wife's been to like events in her capacity as a vip at some of
Sam: those games but i forget this seattle storm maybe it's seattle storm maybe that's
Sam: basketball i don't know i am now past my level of knowledge i.
Ivan: Think that is the best.
Sam: Seattle storm women's basketball yeah yeah yeah okay i don't know i could look
Sam: it up but i won't all right okay Okay, Bruce's question, first question,
Sam: will Jimmy Carter survive the year, survive 2025?
Sam: He's only got a few more days and he can make it through 2024.
Sam: I don't know if he'll make it.
Sam: We'll know next week if he survived 2024, but this question is, will he survive 2025?
Ivan: I think, unfortunately, no.
Sam: I will say no. Okay, from Ed, will the polio vaccine lose approval for use in the US?
Sam: No. No, no, even if RFK jr gets in and blah, blah, blah, no.
Sam: Um, at worst, at worst, and this is even from what RFK Jr.
Sam: Is saying he would do, he would remove it from the recommended list.
Sam: He wouldn't remove it from the approved list, which still lots of people won't
Sam: take it if it's not in the officially recommended list and it would still be a disaster.
Sam: But anyway, no, it won't lose approval. Okay, this next one,
Sam: Ed, we may have to ask you in a year what the right answer of this is.
Sam: Will A-Day's mosquitoes infected with a phage that kills dengue virus eliminate
Sam: dengue in a significant sized region of at least 100,000 acres area? This is from Ed.
Ivan: I mean, I've heard about this development. I don't know.
Sam: I think I've heard about it from Ed.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, I heard about it in the news somewhere. I don't recall hearing it
Ivan: from Ed, but I know I had heard about this.
Ivan: But I'm going to say, okay, I'm going to go with yes. I think they're going
Ivan: to try this because I know they had gotten pretty close to trying to try this.
Sam: I'll be optimistic and say yes
Sam: as well. But like I said, we may need your update on this, Ed, in a year.
Sam: Okay, also from Ed, will bird flu make the transition to human-to-human transmission?
Sam: And if so, will it begin rapid dissemination, i.e. another epidemic?
Sam: Not necessarily pandemic, but just epidemic level.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: I will say yes, we will get some human-to-human transmission this year.
Sam: And I will say yes to maybe being classified as an epidemic.
Sam: I am going to say no to another global pandemic. Yeah.
Sam: Because, you know, just say no.
Ivan: Right. That works. Yeah. No testing, then there's no. Exactly.
Ivan: If you don't test, you don't know. You don't.
Sam: Yeah. Trump learned his lesson from last time. We won't. If there's any new
Sam: epidemic of anything, we're not going to test. And so we're not going to test.
Ivan: Right. Yeah.
Sam: It won't happen. Okay. The next section was originally sports,
Sam: but I noticed my son has been in here editing it. So it's now sports slash Abelsmay.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: For this segment. question number one from bruce super bowl winner i don't even
Sam: know who's in contention i guess did this is are the seahawks in contention
Sam: is that why we have fireworks chiefs i'll.
Ivan: Go with the kansas city chiefs.
Sam: Give me like how many all right let's see possible possible teams.
Ivan: Kansas city chiefs buffalo bills detroit lions green bay packers.
Sam: Okay, I'm going to pick randomly and go with the Buffalo Bills.
Ivan: Okay, that's a good choice. I like your choice.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Next is from Alex. Will the Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled?
Sam: And so just so you guys know, he's been having me work on building this game
Sam: in Unity, and I've succeeded in making a simple clicker game.
Sam: You win the game by clicking a bunch.
Sam: and i i have a i have a
Sam: high score system i'm particularly proud of in this game i
Sam: like how it works and i have decided that
Sam: my next step is to make a web
Sam: version of this game that i can put online
Sam: and invite all of you folks on the
Sam: show to play and like and and
Sam: see how that works alex doesn't particularly want me
Sam: to make a web version but i'm working on that anyway that's
Sam: my next step and so he wants to
Sam: know will it be canceled and i will say no i will
Sam: not cancel i will not
Sam: cancel the abel fnaf web edition so you guys have something to look forward
Sam: to and he's now attacking me because i said that his the next question which
Sam: apparently is not from alex but it's from my conscience is will abel smade die
Sam: and i'm gonna say i really hope not i'm gonna say no.
Sam: No. So no, I'm not going to die this coming year. At least I'm going to try really hard not to.
Sam: So if, if, if, if I do, Yvonne, I won't be able to run the numbers on whether I got this right or not.
Ivan: No, stop. I'll try to carry on.
Sam: Yes, exactly. Okay, real quick. Alex is typing something new.
Ivan: A new question. God.
Sam: Is.
Sam: Okay. His next question, will Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled for real?
Sam: And the answer is no, it will not be canceled.
Sam: And the next question for me is will Apple FNAF web web game edition actually be released in 2025?
Sam: And I'm going to say, yes, I will complete this. Okay. Okay.
Sam: As Alex attacks me for having the wrong answer there. Okay. Do you want to predict
Sam: any of those, Yvonne? I presume not.
Ivan: No.
Sam: But you can, you can.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Okay. You did predict I won't die, so I'm grateful for that.
Ivan: I did predict that you're not
Ivan: going to die, and I'm going to predict that Fidel will stay dead in 2025.
Sam: Okay. Fidel will stay dead in 2025. Also, pain? Pain?
Ivan: Yes. A lot of pain.
Sam: A lot of pain. Okay, next up, weather, climate, and we've only got a few questions
Sam: left, and then we're done.
Sam: How many hurricanes will make landfall on the U.S. mainland?
Sam: This is from Ed. I'm going to say three.
Ivan: Six.
Sam: Not Trump. hurricanes, not tropical storms. Six. They have to be hurricanes.
Sam: Six. Okay. I'm going to say three years, say six.
Sam: No ranges from either of us. We're being really bold.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: We should have said up or down like before. How many hurricanes?
Ivan: Between one and 20.
Sam: There you go. Will, for me, will 2025 be the hottest year ever?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Yes. I agree. It's a much safer bet than no at this point.
Sam: like we've we've had a couple years recently we've come in second but it's been
Sam: first or second like every year for the last decade practically right so right
Sam: okay pop culture first from bruce best movie oscar i'm gonna say wicked part one.
Ivan: I don't even know what movies are up for it i don't know i don't know either
Ivan: but i'm gonna say wicked part ones by the.
Sam: Way i'll eventually get to it i did see it i did see wicked.
Ivan: Part one i haven't seen the way i've seen in a.
Sam: Theater in the last year.
Ivan: I don't know what movies were out this year i don't know okay i but this is
Ivan: this is a different i mean yeah last.
Sam: Time when you did this you should specifically google not just movies out this
Sam: year but google oscar contenders.
Ivan: Yeah well no whatever so what i'll i mean it could be any let's see i'll pick
Ivan: because last time i think.
Sam: I think last time you and you did like mission impossible or something there.
Ivan: Yeah well you know oh wait no wrong year okay uh let's see uh i'm gonna say,
Ivan: I don't know.
Ivan: Just because I like the name, Conclave.
Sam: Conclave. That was a 2024 movie?
Ivan: Yes, according to this list I'm looking at. Yes.
Sam: Okay. Awesome. I've never heard of that one.
Ivan: There you go. Okay.
Sam: I'll of course have to put it on my list. Let's see. I'm adding it to the list right now.
Sam: Wikipedia. media i take a screenshot to put it on the list and i add it to the actual list later,
Sam: con clave movie oh i've heard of this i think yes i think i actually already
Sam: had it on my list it's it's a it's a mystery thriller about the selection of
Sam: a new pope so yeah okay that is the problem that.
Ivan: Is what a conclave is i knew that part yes i didn't know okay yes.
Sam: Okay next question And Bruce wants to know the average number of downloads of Curmudgeon's Corner.
Sam: I will do this by the weekly number.
Sam: And just for reference, the seven-day number, if you take a trend line through
Sam: it, not the individual daily numbers for that,
Sam: that while the individual daily numbers over the course of the last year have
Sam: ranged from 19 on our worst week, our worst day ever,
Sam: trailing seven days, to 155 on our best day ever.
Sam: But the trend line has basically gone from 47 to 80 to 75, 47 to 85.
Sam: So I will put that when we exit the year, we will be once again between 40 and 60 for that trend line.
Sam: Because that's where we've been for a long time, basically. Do you agree?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Okay. Now, cause you know, we could just do some sort of active,
Sam: like we should, we could start advertising again or something and push the number up.
Ivan: You know, maybe we'll talk about it.
Sam: And he asked the same question for Wiki of the Day.
Sam: I will give the combined number for all three Wiki of the Day podcasts together.
Sam: The number of unique downloaders per week for that one has varied from a low
Sam: of 120-ish to a high of 255 with the trend line going from 125 to 185 or so.
Sam: So I will say that I'm going to stay pretty – 125 to 175 is my prediction for
Sam: Wiki of the day. You got any thoughts on that?
Ivan: No.
Sam: Okay, then from John, will Taylor and Travis get engaged? Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey?
Ivan: No.
Sam: I'm going to say no as well. Now, you know what?
Sam: I will be contrarian on this one, so we're not disagreeing on everything.
Sam: I will say yes. I will say yes.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: They will get engaged.
Ivan: Yes. Yes. Okay. All right.
Sam: And yes, they will get engaged.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And then finally, we already talked Jimmy Carter. Any other major celebrity deaths in 2025?
Ivan: Okay. So to try to pad my numbers, maybe. I will predict that Trump will die in 2025.
Sam: Since you earlier predicted he would still be
Sam: president then correct and i i remembered the
Sam: name of the movie weekend at bernie's ah yes that's
Sam: because i was saying they could carry him around like weekend at bernie's yeah
Sam: i was saying like that movie where they carried around the dead guy you know
Sam: so uh which i have not never seen the movie by the way but i know that your
Sam: list it's on the list okay and i will undoubtedly add it again now um just so it doubles,
Sam: whatever chance it has of coming up weekend at Bernie's,
Sam: and there's apparently a sequel to although you know what are they there is a sequel that is.
Ivan: Right the sequel is awful I've got to say you.
Sam: Know okay major celebrity deaths you said Trump you have anybody else in mind.
Ivan: Major celebrity deaths who am I trying uh King Charles.
Sam: Ooh. Bold.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Ed's okay. I am going to where's continue without disabling the stupid ad blocker. Let's see.
Sam: Oldest celebrities as of sometime recently, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough,
Sam: Jean Shalett, Alan Greenspan,
Sam: Dick Van Dyke, Jimmy Carter, even Marie St.
Sam: I'm not predicting I don't want to wish any of those people.
Ivan: To be dead I mean hell.
Sam: So taking from these before I even brought up this list I was going to say Dick
Sam: Van Dyke although he's like really old but he's been on TV a couple times recently
Sam: like within the last couple weeks he looks pretty good I know yeah,
Sam: I will predict specifically Dick Van Dyke will live through 2025 okay I will
Sam: say, I will predict David Attenborough won't make it.
Sam: Alan Greenspan won't make it. And we already said Jimmy Carter's not going to make it.
Sam: I'll stop there. Those are my predictions.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And look, I predicted a couple people, old people, in their late 90s,
Sam: I predicted they will make it another year. So I'm being positive in that way.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: You got any more?
Ivan: Uh, do I have any more.
Sam: Any more celebrity deaths or, or, or who will live?
Ivan: Uh, I, I predict Jared Kushner will die.
Sam: Oh, okay. Cause I was going to say my next, the next thing that we did last
Sam: year was any young people that would die in the next year.
Sam: So you're predicting Kushner as a relatively young one.
Sam: Let me predict on the relatively young side and keeping sort of in that general
Sam: realm of things, Matt Gaetz.
Ivan: Oh, I like that one.
Sam: Now, now that he is out of Congress and no longer in running for DOJ,
Sam: he'll go back hard on the cocaine and something will happen.
Ivan: Okay. Matt Gaetz. I like that one. Okay. All right. That sounds good.
Sam: Oh, should I be more? I will first one prediction.
Sam: Matt Gaetz will not live the year. Prediction number two, if,
Sam: and this is a conditional, so only if he actually dies,
Sam: my second prediction will be, my second prediction will be that Matt Gaetz will
Sam: in fact die high on cocaine in the arms of a hooker.
Ivan: I like it. That sounds totally, you know, it sounds totally reasonable.
Ivan: I just think that sounds like exactly, you know, what the hell it should be like.
Ivan: I mean, that sounds exactly how it should be, as a matter of fact.
Sam: And with that, I think we are done, Yvonne.
Sam: I think we are done. Yeah. Hey, everybody. First of all, thanks again to Bruce,
Sam: Ed and John for contributing questions to this year's prediction show.
Sam: We really appreciate it.
Sam: And thanks. And Alex and Alex, who was about to hit me. If I don't mention him.
Sam: And me, and me. I contributed a bunch of questions as well. Okay.
Sam: As my son is manhandling me. Okay, we're wrapping it up. Say it really,
Sam: type it really fast, whatever you want to type. No?
Sam: My head. Okay, we're, anyway, thanks everybody for joining us again.
Sam: And you know the deal, curmudgeons-corner.com to see all of our recent shows,
Sam: or our entire archive of shows, transcripts of recent shows.
Sam: All of the ways to contact us links to our YouTube where the video goes and stuff.
Sam: And yeah, I have not linked to our TikTok. We're posting highlights on TikTok
Sam: until they die, if they die.
Sam: And if they if they are still around after January 20th, I will consider adding
Sam: the link, a link to our website.
Sam: And also, of course, a link to our Patreon where we can you can give us money.
Sam: if you win the mega millions, which you won't because I will,
Sam: but if you win the mega millions, feel free to give some of it to us.
Sam: And we've gone long enough. I don't think we need a highlight from the Slack.
Sam: If you, if you donate to the Patreon, we'll give you, we'll send you a postcard.
Sam: We'll mention you on the show. We'll send you a mug, whatever at different levels.
Sam: And we will invite you to our, our curmudgeons course Slack,
Sam: where Yvonne and I are talking through throughout the week with a bunch of our
Sam: listeners and yeah, no highlight from the Slack this time, right Yvonne?
Ivan: Uh well if you.
Sam: Don't have to we've gone on a long time.
Ivan: But if you have something that's burning you up let me see we got something
Ivan: that's burning me up I you know anything that's burning me up uh,
Ivan: uh uh uh,
Ivan: i i oh oh that somebody thought that an app that generated recipes with ai was
Ivan: a good idea and it it created this delicious look looking spicy roasted cat
Ivan: with sweet sweet chili glaze well.
Sam: As we know they're eating the cats they're eating the dogs.
Ivan: Well i mean that's what once you adds, you know, those ingredients that,
Ivan: you know, it's, it's, yeah, makes it quite more appetizing.
Sam: Okay. Thank you for that, Yvonne. Very good. The last thing to say is that next
Sam: week will be another one of our special shows next week absent some huge event.
Sam: Like a few years ago, we had to like delay it because of January 6th,
Sam: 2021, but next week will be our review of our 2024 predictions to see how we
Sam: did. And so tune into that as well.
Sam: Hey, everybody have a great week and a happy new year.
Sam: And we'll be here for our predictions review next week. And then the week after that for more new stuff.
Sam: And then by the end of January, we'll be into the second Trump presidency. So there you go.
Sam: Okay. I'm going to, I'm going to hit the exit music now. Goodbye.
Ivan: Bye.
Sam: You folks listening can't see but for the last few minutes as i've been trying to close out the show,
Sam: yvonne's been changing the background behind him
Sam: every few seconds you know got jack nicholson then we've got lucy from peanuts
Sam: then we've got various buildings all kinds of other random crap and i've been
Sam: having to keep myself from laughing as he's doing this so just thought i'd tell you guys now Anyway,
Sam: I'm hitting stop now once he stops laughing.
Sam: There we go. Bye, folks.