WEBVTT 00:00:26.620 --> 00:00:33.440 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Friday, December 27th, 2024. 00:00:34.020 --> 00:00:36.680 It is just after 3.30 UTC. 00:00:37.300 --> 00:00:41.080 I'm Sam Inter, Yvonne Bow is here, and this is our annual prediction show. 00:00:41.660 --> 00:00:46.100 So in just a moment, we're going to start making predictions for 2025. 00:00:46.900 --> 00:00:51.620 For anybody new, the rules are they have to be things that actually happen in 00:00:51.620 --> 00:00:57.500 2025 so that the first week of 2026, we'll know if we got it right or not, 00:00:57.540 --> 00:01:00.060 because this week we're doing predictions for 2025. 00:01:00.680 --> 00:01:06.740 And next week, we'll be reviewing our predictions for 2024 and seeing how we did. 00:01:06.920 --> 00:01:11.720 So we've done this for a number of years now, and we divide it into sections, 00:01:12.400 --> 00:01:17.580 politics, international, economy, technology, and hodgepodge. 00:01:17.900 --> 00:01:22.760 And I think, Yvonne, we should just jump right in we always tell ourselves at 00:01:22.760 --> 00:01:27.240 the beginning just make the damn prediction and move on because when we start 00:01:27.240 --> 00:01:31.280 discussing them we go really really long oh. 00:01:31.280 --> 00:01:35.280 Because we're we have a problem about going off on tangents yes. 00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:38.700 We do okay yeah okay so 00:01:38.700 --> 00:01:41.440 as i've mentioned on the show the 00:01:41.440 --> 00:01:44.720 last couple weeks we had a google doc set up where people made suggestions 00:01:44.720 --> 00:01:47.840 ed bruce and 00:01:47.840 --> 00:01:50.960 john added suggestions to our page and then 00:01:50.960 --> 00:01:53.940 and then i added a few of my own and 00:01:53.940 --> 00:01:58.260 one thing that's different this time like other times i've gone back to the 00:01:58.260 --> 00:02:03.540 previous year's predictions blah blah blah and used them as inspiration for 00:02:03.540 --> 00:02:06.420 what we should predict this time i didn't do that this time i didn't even look 00:02:06.420 --> 00:02:12.000 at last year's stuff yet i just went through and thought what do i want to add 00:02:12.000 --> 00:02:13.520 so if i missed anything to the. 00:02:13.520 --> 00:02:20.840 Politics we have no real big elections to predict for example so that clears the slate on that, 00:02:21.710 --> 00:02:26.710 And, you know, so, so this year is a little bit different in that perspective, 00:02:27.030 --> 00:02:29.290 right? You know, political predictions are every. 00:02:29.310 --> 00:02:36.750 Every other year has a whole bunch of election predictions, like either presidential or the midterms. 00:02:37.010 --> 00:02:37.230 Right. 00:02:37.670 --> 00:02:40.950 Yeah. But when none, none of that this year, it's just sort of like, 00:02:41.070 --> 00:02:42.390 how are things going? I guess. 00:02:43.130 --> 00:02:47.370 Anyway, shall we jump right in, Yvonne, or do you have any other preambles you 00:02:47.370 --> 00:02:48.250 want to get out of the way? 00:02:48.370 --> 00:02:55.490 I don't want a preamble. i i i'm still running a hospital here i i can't no no no no preambling. 00:02:55.490 --> 00:02:58.590 Okay and if the if yvonne 00:02:58.590 --> 00:03:01.390 has to pause at any moment we will pause and 00:03:01.390 --> 00:03:05.070 continue as needed okay so first 00:03:05.070 --> 00:03:08.230 up front but first thing is politics and first 00:03:08.230 --> 00:03:11.510 sort of subsection of that is presidential and the 00:03:11.510 --> 00:03:16.790 very first suggestion is from ed who wants to know how long will trump keep 00:03:16.790 --> 00:03:23.850 musk as an advisor for doge and i i'll generalize this how long will he keep 00:03:23.850 --> 00:03:28.750 on his invite you know i don't know answer this how you wish i don't think i. 00:03:28.750 --> 00:03:38.930 I i think that i will be it doesn't he will not fill he would not he will not last the year. 00:03:38.930 --> 00:03:42.810 Okay that that might be any more specific no no. 00:03:42.810 --> 00:03:49.090 No no i think that at some point before i'm gonna be broader on my prediction just you know trying. 00:03:49.090 --> 00:03:52.770 To because you usually get yourself in trouble being super person exactly so. 00:03:52.770 --> 00:04:00.710 I will say that by december 31st he will no longer be such and i don't want to go into a tangent so. 00:04:00.710 --> 00:04:01.530 I'm afraid. 00:04:01.530 --> 00:04:04.550 From talking about what's been going on right now. 00:04:04.550 --> 00:04:08.130 So i'll give you a prediction i'll say that it's, 00:04:09.550 --> 00:04:16.410 first of all i i'll say it won't be it won't be one of these deals where trump 00:04:16.410 --> 00:04:20.130 like fires him via tweet or something although that would be really amusing 00:04:20.130 --> 00:04:24.490 with musk now owner owning no no no. 00:04:24.490 --> 00:04:26.370 Trump will put it as a truth. 00:04:26.370 --> 00:04:31.170 Yeah as a truth but no i don't think either of those will happen i think it 00:04:31.170 --> 00:04:37.610 will be more like Trump will make it increasingly clear that he's not paying 00:04:37.610 --> 00:04:39.150 attention to Musk anymore. 00:04:39.430 --> 00:04:45.190 And Musk can continue doing whatever the hell he's doing, but Trump will ridicule 00:04:45.190 --> 00:04:47.290 him or ignore him or something like that. 00:04:47.370 --> 00:04:48.510 I mean... 00:04:49.400 --> 00:04:52.400 god so so let me see maybe 00:04:52.400 --> 00:04:55.660 because now of course will he be an advisor what you 00:04:55.660 --> 00:04:59.100 know what does that even yeah yeah yeah this is okay 00:04:59.100 --> 00:05:02.020 so what what i'm right now 00:05:02.020 --> 00:05:05.880 basically musk is like at at 00:05:05.880 --> 00:05:09.780 trump's side like constantly okay right 00:05:09.780 --> 00:05:15.060 i mean you know he went to a football game he was there with him he's a mar-a-lago 00:05:15.060 --> 00:05:20.260 he was talking to jeff trump was talking to jeff bezos and he's like also jeff 00:05:20.260 --> 00:05:26.340 bezos turns and i said fuck how did you get in here you know that kind of stuff um you know, 00:05:27.160 --> 00:05:34.800 i i just i'm trying to define the line where all of a sudden he's not like his 00:05:34.800 --> 00:05:40.060 advisor and it's a little bit uh this is what i'm saying i think it'll be fuzzier. 00:05:40.060 --> 00:05:41.060 Than that rather than. 00:05:41.060 --> 00:05:45.040 Yeah, that's why I'm like, you know, right. I mean, it could be an outright 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:47.100 declaration. I mean, because it's happened before. 00:05:47.520 --> 00:05:50.100 I mean, Trump has very quickly turned on certain people. 00:05:50.300 --> 00:05:51.280 He absolutely has. 00:05:51.280 --> 00:05:57.860 So that's very possible. And so I guess, you know, no, I don't. 00:05:59.460 --> 00:06:03.780 I think to summarize your prediction, by the end of the year, 00:06:03.900 --> 00:06:08.940 it will be incredibly obvious that Elon has a lot less influence than he did 00:06:08.940 --> 00:06:09.900 at the beginning of the year. 00:06:10.280 --> 00:06:13.340 Okay. Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll, yeah, yeah. 00:06:14.140 --> 00:06:18.700 Or he's not really driving, like, you know, he's no longer in the, 00:06:20.060 --> 00:06:23.820 appearing at every event that, that, you know, Trump is at, basically. 00:06:24.500 --> 00:06:30.300 And I'll say, I'll just be a little bit more aggressive and say that that will 00:06:30.300 --> 00:06:35.480 be incredibly obvious by the end of June. You know. 00:06:35.720 --> 00:06:38.940 I think that that is, you know, that is the, uh. 00:06:39.820 --> 00:06:43.360 And by then, if it happens in January, I'm still right. 00:06:45.040 --> 00:06:50.960 Yeah. Yeah. I think that's fair, but I'm giving myself that sometime by the 00:06:50.960 --> 00:06:52.900 end of the year, because I don't want to be that precise. 00:06:53.440 --> 00:06:59.060 Okay. And by the way, on Doge specifically, there were reports earlier today, 00:06:59.060 --> 00:07:01.000 even that Ramaswamy is in trouble too. 00:07:01.780 --> 00:07:03.640 Like Trump's not happy with him. 00:07:06.440 --> 00:07:14.920 Listen, let's be honest. I mean, Trump eventually, I mean, there's been almost 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.880 no advisor that survived Trump. Almost. Almost. 00:07:19.610 --> 00:07:20.390 You know, so. 00:07:21.450 --> 00:07:22.870 Okay. Anyway. 00:07:23.050 --> 00:07:23.230 Anyway. 00:07:23.390 --> 00:07:24.470 Let's move on. 00:07:24.630 --> 00:07:25.030 Yes, please. 00:07:25.050 --> 00:07:31.090 Let's move on. Another from Ed. Will legislation to privatize the USPS, 00:07:31.270 --> 00:07:32.670 the Postal Service, be introduced? 00:07:32.710 --> 00:07:37.190 And if it is, will it pass both houses? I'll start on this one. 00:07:38.390 --> 00:07:43.310 There is no way in hell that this is happening. 00:07:43.850 --> 00:07:48.710 Here's what I was going to say. It will probably be introduced because I suspect 00:07:48.710 --> 00:07:52.430 this is one of those things that gets introduced every time. 00:07:53.430 --> 00:07:55.030 But you're right. 00:07:55.650 --> 00:07:56.190 Has it been introduced? 00:07:56.530 --> 00:08:00.330 Well, introduced has a very, very low bar, right? 00:08:00.470 --> 00:08:04.850 All it takes is one member dropping something into the bucket, 00:08:05.010 --> 00:08:09.590 essentially, and it doesn't usually go anywhere. I don't know. I could be wrong. 00:08:09.850 --> 00:08:11.230 Let's be clear. I mean, the one thing is. 00:08:11.230 --> 00:08:11.670 It doesn't have. 00:08:11.810 --> 00:08:12.150 But. 00:08:12.790 --> 00:08:15.770 Maybe not. Maybe not. I'm trying to remember. I think it has to do a little 00:08:15.770 --> 00:08:17.430 bit more to get an HR number. 00:08:17.450 --> 00:08:26.190 You know, or I know that because the USPS isn't just a creation coming from, 00:08:26.190 --> 00:08:29.250 you know, a legislative, you know, legislation. 00:08:29.870 --> 00:08:35.910 I mean, the USPS part of it is it's it doesn't it's not that it's created in the Constitution. 00:08:36.190 --> 00:08:41.590 The Constitution specifically says that one of the things the legislature is 00:08:41.590 --> 00:08:43.490 authorized to do is set up a post. 00:08:43.530 --> 00:08:46.330 Yeah, exactly. Exactly, and regulate it as well. 00:08:46.530 --> 00:08:46.870 And regulate it. 00:08:47.630 --> 00:08:55.430 Let me put my- And let me see. I looked it up to make sure. Establish post office and post room. 00:08:56.300 --> 00:09:00.780 regulate the mail system, designate certain materials as non-mailable, 00:09:01.680 --> 00:09:04.280 criminalize abuses of the postal system, protect the mails. 00:09:04.380 --> 00:09:07.740 I mean, it's pretty broad. 00:09:09.740 --> 00:09:15.700 Mandates are related to this. And I find it very difficult to privately manage. 00:09:16.880 --> 00:09:21.380 Let me say this. My version of my prediction. 00:09:21.380 --> 00:09:24.620 Oh my God, again, we're in a mandate. Okay, no, it's not. But listen, 00:09:24.880 --> 00:09:30.220 there is no fucking way in hell the post office is being privatized at the year 2025. 00:09:30.600 --> 00:09:30.780 No, no. 00:09:30.820 --> 00:09:31.460 End the discussion. 00:09:33.220 --> 00:09:39.220 Let me say what I was going to say. I will not make a prediction on will legislation 00:09:39.220 --> 00:09:42.980 be introduced because it could not be. 00:09:44.220 --> 00:09:49.520 But you are absolutely right. It will not pass both houses if it is. 00:09:49.680 --> 00:09:53.960 There is no way legislation to do that will pass both houses of Congress. 00:09:54.180 --> 00:09:55.320 Billion years. 00:09:55.760 --> 00:10:04.340 Now, could there be additional executive action to reduce what the Postal Service is doing? 00:10:04.440 --> 00:10:07.840 Sure, but that's different from privatizing the whole damn thing. 00:10:08.060 --> 00:10:14.540 And to some degree, actually, it's semi-privatized already. It is not a governmental 00:10:14.540 --> 00:10:17.600 agency. It is funded in part. 00:10:18.700 --> 00:10:22.160 It's got a weird quasi relationship. Anyway, moving on. 00:10:25.560 --> 00:10:27.500 Postal workers are federal work. 00:10:28.250 --> 00:10:34.690 Yes. But it's got this weird quasi-status where- Yeah. 00:10:34.690 --> 00:10:38.090 But it's postal workers or federal workers. Okay. 00:10:38.350 --> 00:10:43.570 There will not, we both agree, there will not be legislation to further privatize 00:10:43.570 --> 00:10:48.330 the post office that passes both houses of Congress in 2025. Moving on. 00:10:48.530 --> 00:10:49.090 Moving on. 00:10:49.130 --> 00:10:56.190 This one's from John. Will Trump's inauguration crowd size be bigger or smaller than 2016? team. 00:10:56.590 --> 00:11:02.710 You know, I think it's going to be bigger. I, for whatever the hell reason, 00:11:02.730 --> 00:11:11.450 I don't know why this is right now, but I'm seeing more Trump stickers now than before the election. 00:11:12.670 --> 00:11:14.570 Oh, so you're noticing this too? 00:11:15.090 --> 00:11:18.890 I haven't noticed this specifically, but I'm not surprised. 00:11:19.110 --> 00:11:23.950 Like one of the things we talked about pre-election was that there was a distinctly, 00:11:24.970 --> 00:11:28.350 obviously less enthusiasm than 2016. 00:11:28.730 --> 00:11:31.870 But he won anyway, and he got more votes than 2016. 00:11:32.610 --> 00:11:35.250 But will the inauguration be bigger? 00:11:36.110 --> 00:11:38.930 My prediction, you're saying yes, it will be bigger. 00:11:39.110 --> 00:11:46.470 My prediction will be it will be smaller, but Trump will claim it's bigger, 00:11:46.470 --> 00:11:50.610 and of course Trump will also claim it's the biggest inauguration ever of all time. 00:11:50.810 --> 00:11:59.570 Of all time. but I think straight up it will be bigger I just think that I don't know if, 00:12:00.490 --> 00:12:06.230 these guys are just i don't know right now they're kind of all excited i keep 00:12:06.230 --> 00:12:11.950 hearing how they are excited like you know about how musk is going to fix everything 00:12:11.950 --> 00:12:16.250 it's one of the things i heard this week he's going to fix the water he's going 00:12:16.250 --> 00:12:19.190 to fix the water in california sam with. 00:12:19.190 --> 00:12:20.650 The big faucet from canada. 00:12:20.650 --> 00:12:21.690 Yes i. 00:12:21.690 --> 00:12:22.710 Remember i remember the big. 00:12:22.710 --> 00:12:26.750 Faucet yeah for the big faucet yeah yeah big faucet yeah okay. 00:12:26.750 --> 00:12:32.290 Next up from bruce will trump use recess opponents for opponent. 00:12:32.290 --> 00:12:37.430 Recess appointment i like that question can we can we answer that question first will. 00:12:37.430 --> 00:12:42.510 Trump use recess appointments for any cabinet positions i'm gonna say no because he won't need to. 00:12:42.510 --> 00:12:46.890 I don't think i don't think he will you know i don't think he will need to i 00:12:46.890 --> 00:12:50.870 i think either he's you know i don't think he'll I think they. 00:12:50.870 --> 00:12:56.110 Got gates to drop out and the Republican Senate will pretty much approve everybody else. 00:12:56.650 --> 00:13:02.350 Like there are a couple that are on the edge, but I think even if they're in 00:13:02.350 --> 00:13:06.490 trouble, I, you know, I don't think they'll. 00:13:06.550 --> 00:13:08.610 They'll, they'll substitute. They'll figure it out. 00:13:09.390 --> 00:13:10.690 They'll come up right. 00:13:10.690 --> 00:13:12.070 Yeah they'll come up. 00:13:12.070 --> 00:13:14.970 With yeah rather than doing recess 00:13:14.970 --> 00:13:19.830 appointments because the recess appointment also congress has to cooperate and 00:13:19.830 --> 00:13:25.650 surprisingly both the senate and the house seem to have pushed back when trump 00:13:25.650 --> 00:13:29.550 wanted to push that way of doing things he wanted them to just go into recess 00:13:29.550 --> 00:13:34.870 immediately after his inauguration and let him do everything with recess appointments and they're like nah no. 00:13:34.870 --> 00:13:35.930 We're not doing that shit yeah. 00:13:35.930 --> 00:13:42.450 So okay moving on From Bruce, will all cabinet positions be filled and Senate 00:13:42.450 --> 00:13:46.270 approved by October 1st, which is the end of the fiscal year? I'll say yes. 00:13:46.990 --> 00:13:50.610 Yeah, by October 1st, sure. Yeah, I'll go with that. Yes. 00:13:51.390 --> 00:13:56.870 Okay. Now, Ed says, oh, okay, this is kind of duplicate. 00:13:57.030 --> 00:13:59.670 I didn't realize it, and I kind of duplicated this later. 00:13:59.890 --> 00:14:05.510 But how many of the cabinet approved appointments will be released before the 00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:12.010 1st of January 2025? So within, within, no, not, okay, that doesn't make sense. Maybe it means 2026. 00:14:12.570 --> 00:14:16.050 Like, I think what this means, the wording is confusing me a little, 00:14:16.190 --> 00:14:22.990 lad, is will any of the approved appointments, like, be fired before the end 00:14:22.990 --> 00:14:24.710 of the year? That's how I interpret this. 00:14:25.840 --> 00:14:29.540 I will say fired or resigned, yes. There will be turnover. 00:14:30.380 --> 00:14:32.940 Some of Trump's original facts. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah, 00:14:32.980 --> 00:14:36.620 absolutely. I mean, that's like a given. Yes. Yes. 00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:40.300 Before the end of the year, at least one of the cabinet. 00:14:40.380 --> 00:14:41.040 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:14:41.520 --> 00:14:44.280 That was approved will no longer be. 00:14:44.280 --> 00:14:48.360 Listen, even in good administrations, that shit happens. You know? 00:14:48.900 --> 00:14:50.240 Sometimes they make it a year. 00:14:50.520 --> 00:14:53.380 Yeah, yeah, yeah. But sometimes, but even in good administrations, 00:14:53.520 --> 00:14:54.840 sometimes that happens. Yes. 00:14:55.360 --> 00:14:59.740 Yeah. So I'll say yes as well. We both agree. And then that's a dupli- I was 00:14:59.740 --> 00:15:01.620 going to ask, will there be any turnover? Same thing. 00:15:01.920 --> 00:15:06.120 Okay. Now, from me, we're now onto the me ones. 00:15:07.200 --> 00:15:14.820 Will there be any pre-inauguration drama of the January 6th, 2021 sort at all? 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:15.680 No. 00:15:16.260 --> 00:15:20.580 And not necessarily like Democrats trying to take over the Congress. 00:15:20.820 --> 00:15:22.300 But like anything. No. 00:15:22.820 --> 00:15:24.800 Like, yeah, no, no. 00:15:24.920 --> 00:15:25.080 No. 00:15:25.300 --> 00:15:27.920 No. I think you're probably right. 00:15:28.160 --> 00:15:29.800 Yeah, nothing's happening. 00:15:30.340 --> 00:15:36.320 There might be some token sort of thing. If you remember the first time Trump won, 00:15:38.500 --> 00:15:44.640 there was some January 6th stuff where some Democrats tried to contest it, 00:15:44.760 --> 00:15:47.280 and they were immediately shut down by the Democrats. 00:15:47.280 --> 00:15:51.300 Yeah, but nothing happened. But we were talking about the faithless electors, 00:15:51.460 --> 00:15:52.840 blah, blah, blah, that kind of stuff. 00:15:52.940 --> 00:15:55.200 Yeah, we had faithless electors. 00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:57.400 None of that happened. 00:15:57.920 --> 00:16:03.060 Yeah, none of that happened. But one of the things that has been talked about 00:16:03.060 --> 00:16:10.580 is the Supreme Court's decision about Trump's eligibility to be president via insurrection, 00:16:10.920 --> 00:16:13.200 in part said, well, that's Congress's decision. 00:16:13.400 --> 00:16:18.540 And the right time to mount those objections would be when you count the votes, 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:20.800 unless they had passed legislation, which they didn't. 00:16:20.960 --> 00:16:26.060 And so at least some Democrats are saying they should put an an effort to say, 00:16:26.220 --> 00:16:29.920 well, he's ineligible to become president, so he can't get electoral votes. 00:16:30.880 --> 00:16:38.600 So I wouldn't be shocked if some Democrat tried that. 00:16:38.700 --> 00:16:40.580 But it's just going to be like for nothing. 00:16:40.740 --> 00:16:41.920 But it'll be shut down immediately. 00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:44.480 It'll be a big nothing burger. Yeah. 00:16:45.700 --> 00:16:50.480 Harris herself would be banging the gavel and saying, you know, done. 00:16:50.740 --> 00:16:54.340 I mean, they might have to vote on it or something. I actually don't think that's 00:16:54.340 --> 00:16:58.300 going to happen. I'm going to predict that does not happen, but some people are talking about it. 00:16:58.400 --> 00:17:02.680 And if it does happen, it will be shut down immediately. And I don't anticipate 00:17:02.680 --> 00:17:06.360 any other drama of that sort. 00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:07.180 No. 00:17:07.560 --> 00:17:08.840 Okay. Next. 00:17:11.190 --> 00:17:15.950 Will Harris be president for a short time between Biden and Trump? 00:17:16.130 --> 00:17:21.210 Some people have talked about like Biden resigning like a week early or something 00:17:21.210 --> 00:17:26.390 just to get her to be just so much to piss off Trump. 00:17:26.630 --> 00:17:29.330 I don't know. Like she would be 47 instead of him. 00:17:30.050 --> 00:17:34.870 That actually sounds like I like this idea because they've made all these hats 00:17:34.870 --> 00:17:36.930 and things and stuff or whatever. 00:17:37.170 --> 00:17:40.370 It's just the fuck with them that he's not 40. He's not 47. 00:17:41.190 --> 00:17:44.910 Okay, I do like this idea. At first I thought, well, what the fuck, why not? 00:17:45.110 --> 00:17:49.170 But I got to admit, I like this idea. I don't think it's going to happen, 00:17:49.190 --> 00:17:52.390 but I definitely like this idea because that would, 00:17:52.530 --> 00:17:56.550 oh my God, can you imagine they got all this inauguration shit and they've got, 00:17:56.690 --> 00:18:02.010 I've seen all the hats with the 40 and all this shit and you just like completely 00:18:02.010 --> 00:18:04.190 fuck those people. Oh, that would be awesome. 00:18:04.950 --> 00:18:07.930 I'm like, God damn it. I'm writing to Biden right now. Just say Biden, 00:18:08.250 --> 00:18:11.590 please. Just, just, you know what? Just knock off early. knock off a. 00:18:11.590 --> 00:18:13.870 Week you know that's. 00:18:13.870 --> 00:18:16.510 It just to fucking stick it to 00:18:16.510 --> 00:18:20.530 those bastards yes I like this idea but I don't think he's going to do it. 00:18:20.530 --> 00:18:28.090 I also like the idea I also think he's not going to do it will he will attend 00:18:28.090 --> 00:18:34.430 the inauguration as president and hand it over to Trump like the good institutionalist trooper he is, 00:18:36.470 --> 00:18:44.850 okay next up who will be president at the end of 2025 so this obviously donald. 00:18:44.850 --> 00:18:45.770 Trump will be. 00:18:45.770 --> 00:18:48.850 President i i will i will agree 00:18:48.850 --> 00:18:52.730 obviously the only ways that would not happen are he 00:18:52.730 --> 00:18:56.570 resigns the 25th amendment or he dies you 00:18:56.570 --> 00:19:00.970 know all possible all possible but 00:19:00.970 --> 00:19:04.230 unlikely i i will you know i 00:19:04.230 --> 00:19:08.090 will not predict any of those things but you 00:19:08.090 --> 00:19:11.790 know he like what yeah 00:19:11.790 --> 00:19:14.770 i mean like he could resign just because he's bored he's gotten everything 00:19:14.770 --> 00:19:17.950 he's he didn't go to jail he's gotten 00:19:17.950 --> 00:19:21.350 he's gotten out of everything yep and so 00:19:21.350 --> 00:19:25.090 he doesn't really want or like the job so do 00:19:25.090 --> 00:19:27.770 it for a little while and then be like i'm out 00:19:27.770 --> 00:19:31.950 have fun jd you know that that's possible if 00:19:31.950 --> 00:19:34.850 like he his health or 00:19:34.850 --> 00:19:37.590 dementia or something gets really bad you could 00:19:37.590 --> 00:19:41.610 see a a 25th amendment scenario but also 00:19:41.610 --> 00:19:44.790 probably unlikely even if those things were bad 00:19:44.790 --> 00:19:50.730 they'd probably more likely do like the dave scenario or something you know 00:19:50.730 --> 00:19:55.150 or or what what's the other one the one where they carried around the dead guy 00:19:55.150 --> 00:20:02.270 for like in the movies you know the that one i don't you know the one i'm. 00:20:02.990 --> 00:20:06.190 You don't know anything anymore. Yeah. 00:20:06.350 --> 00:20:11.170 Anyway, one of those things they would do something or finally he dies. 00:20:11.410 --> 00:20:15.390 You never know, but I'm not going to predict that. Although you've been predicting 00:20:15.390 --> 00:20:19.210 he'd die of natural causes for like eight years. 00:20:19.450 --> 00:20:22.450 And you know what? Obviously I've been wrong. 00:20:22.590 --> 00:20:26.930 I'm going, I'm going, listen, is what I'm going to do. 00:20:27.050 --> 00:20:32.530 I think the year that I predicted Fidel was going to die, wasn't going to die. He died. 00:20:33.150 --> 00:20:33.550 Yes. 00:20:34.470 --> 00:20:38.530 So. So. Oh, you got fireworks? 00:20:39.450 --> 00:20:40.890 Apparently somebody's setting off fireworks. 00:20:41.330 --> 00:20:43.850 This is a little bit early for that, but okay. All right. 00:20:45.890 --> 00:20:50.310 So I'm going to go, I'm going to play the opposite. Say you're not going to die. 00:20:51.030 --> 00:20:55.430 Okay. Now that, that does have bring up something I didn't put on the list, 00:20:55.490 --> 00:21:00.110 but it reminded me of, Will there be any additional assassination attempts in 00:21:00.110 --> 00:21:04.470 2025 of Donald Trump? Of Donald Trump. 00:21:05.070 --> 00:21:06.710 Man, I'm going to say yes. 00:21:07.610 --> 00:21:08.130 Yeah. 00:21:08.350 --> 00:21:10.750 We've had, I mean, he's already had two. 00:21:11.250 --> 00:21:11.730 Yeah. 00:21:12.170 --> 00:21:17.490 I mean, that, you know, maybe more. I, yeah, I mean, yes. 00:21:18.050 --> 00:21:24.050 I mean, the mood right now with assassination has been upped many not. 00:21:24.050 --> 00:21:27.390 People seem to be all excited about it. They want more. 00:21:28.750 --> 00:21:32.690 I'll say yes, there will be more attempts. I will also say they will be unsuccessful. 00:21:33.130 --> 00:21:35.810 Like, at least one. There will be at least one attempt. 00:21:35.870 --> 00:21:39.950 I don't know. Fuck, you know, Sam, they got really close. I mean, look. 00:21:40.010 --> 00:21:41.030 They did. They did. 00:21:41.090 --> 00:21:45.470 I mean, listen, that guy was a couple of inches away from, you know, 00:21:45.650 --> 00:21:48.290 Trump being dead. It was, you know, I mean. 00:21:48.410 --> 00:21:48.770 Oh, yeah. 00:21:49.930 --> 00:21:52.590 So I'm not writing it off that, you know. 00:21:52.590 --> 00:22:01.190 No but i i think that because of that in part everything will be tightened up like so. 00:22:01.190 --> 00:22:08.770 Yeah but but you know one problem that you count is that trump just loves to not listen or follow. 00:22:08.770 --> 00:22:14.630 And that is true advice like so they they could be trying to keep him in a bubble 00:22:14.630 --> 00:22:17.430 and he'd just reject it and go out wherever. 00:22:17.850 --> 00:22:19.050 Yeah. Okay. 00:22:19.190 --> 00:22:26.490 So, okay. Next up the, the, the only one of the Trump cases that has not been, 00:22:27.760 --> 00:22:31.220 officially fully delayed until after is the New York case. 00:22:31.760 --> 00:22:36.340 Everybody seems to assume that the New York judge has indefinitely delayed sentencing, 00:22:36.500 --> 00:22:40.740 but hasn't yet said, we're going to wait until after Trump's term. 00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:46.240 Will he issue a sentence in that case, or will he just delay it until after the election? 00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:50.420 I think he's delaying it until after the election. He's not going to do that. 00:22:51.140 --> 00:22:54.300 I think he's going to delay it until after he leaves the president. 00:22:54.300 --> 00:22:58.180 I mean, not the election, until after the four-year term, until Trump's not- Well. 00:22:58.480 --> 00:22:59.940 Until he's not president anymore. 00:23:00.100 --> 00:23:05.600 Period. Yes. I don't think he'll, like, there's still some motions in play to 00:23:05.600 --> 00:23:07.900 dismiss it out of hand that he hasn't dealt with yet. 00:23:07.900 --> 00:23:09.120 But he's already rejected that. 00:23:09.320 --> 00:23:14.180 He rejected, no, he rejected one of the motions to dismiss. There's still another one pending. 00:23:14.580 --> 00:23:19.000 But I don't think he's going to dismiss it, but I don't think he's going to issue a sentence. 00:23:19.020 --> 00:23:24.180 He is going to just pause the case for four years or how, or last if Trump isn't 00:23:24.180 --> 00:23:27.360 president for four years, but I'm assuming four years. So in any case, 00:23:27.460 --> 00:23:29.460 it won't happen this year. Okay. 00:23:30.260 --> 00:23:35.960 Will the Trump administration openly investigate any political opponents or members of the press? 00:23:36.660 --> 00:23:36.940 Yes. 00:23:37.280 --> 00:23:43.520 I will agree. Yes. Will they actually indict any of those people in 2025? 00:23:44.100 --> 00:23:48.000 Oh, yeah. I'm sure they'll indict somebody. I mean, remember, 00:23:48.120 --> 00:23:49.340 you're saying somebody. 00:23:49.860 --> 00:23:53.980 Well, I'm saying specifically political opponents or members of the press. 00:23:53.980 --> 00:23:58.940 Specifically a political opponent. something they'll cook up. 00:23:58.940 --> 00:24:02.120 Something on somebody by the end of the year this includes like 00:24:02.120 --> 00:24:07.540 the the congress people who are involved in the january 6 investigation it includes 00:24:07.540 --> 00:24:12.860 jack smith and his staff it includes like you know any basically any democrat 00:24:12.860 --> 00:24:19.100 it includes like all of the all of the reporters at cnn and msnbc or hosts that 00:24:19.100 --> 00:24:20.340 he doesn't there will be some. 00:24:20.340 --> 00:24:27.700 Clearly visible like, you know, him ordering a prosecution of somebody that 00:24:27.700 --> 00:24:30.300 he, he, he, he openly despises. 00:24:30.700 --> 00:24:35.980 I'm going to, I'm going to say investigations in 2025, but no indictments yet. 00:24:36.520 --> 00:24:40.760 He'll be able to harass people a lot with just the investigations. 00:24:41.140 --> 00:24:44.840 Maybe there'll be indictments in a future year, but I'm going to say not in 2025, 00:24:45.340 --> 00:24:48.280 just investigations, but, but open, obvious 00:24:48.280 --> 00:24:53.780 investigations where we know they're happening and the it's in the news and 00:24:53.780 --> 00:24:57.660 their mate their statements are being made about the things that these people 00:24:57.660 --> 00:25:02.120 did wrong and blah because of course like the other yeah all of that like all 00:25:02.120 --> 00:25:06.500 of the investigation we will know stuff about investigations but i i'm gonna 00:25:06.500 --> 00:25:07.880 say no indictments and so you're. 00:25:07.880 --> 00:25:11.320 Saying investigations don't indictment i'm saying investigations that's at least 00:25:11.320 --> 00:25:13.500 one some one person will get indicted. 00:25:13.500 --> 00:25:14.180 Okay, 00:25:15.740 --> 00:25:20.900 last one for presidential will trump initiate hostile military action anywhere 00:25:20.900 --> 00:25:26.820 the u.s was not already involved in 2024 with us say no i i think. 00:25:26.820 --> 00:25:29.320 No i think at the end he chickens out on all of these. 00:25:29.320 --> 00:25:33.860 Yeah in terms of direct action like it might be more subtle in terms of like 00:25:33.860 --> 00:25:37.520 supporting stuff like we're doing in ukraine we're not we're not. 00:25:37.520 --> 00:25:40.500 Invade we're not invading panama we're not invading. 00:25:40.780 --> 00:25:44.420 Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait. We got separate questions on those later in the show. 00:25:44.900 --> 00:25:48.040 Like, well, what I'm saying is those are military actions. What I'm saying is 00:25:48.040 --> 00:25:51.380 that we're not invading. We're not, you know, we're not doing it. 00:25:51.560 --> 00:25:52.680 I don't think we're doing any of that. 00:25:53.160 --> 00:25:57.840 Okay. I will ask you specific questions on specific countries later on. 00:25:58.140 --> 00:26:01.600 And you could say no to be consistent. I will. 00:26:03.800 --> 00:26:06.960 i'm gonna say no as 00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:10.160 well and that will presage several 00:26:10.160 --> 00:26:15.760 other questions we have later like i i feel like there's some scenarios where 00:26:15.760 --> 00:26:20.180 trump might end up doing that but i'm not going to predict them outright okay 00:26:20.180 --> 00:26:28.520 next up congress will t c j a be renewed i will admit i actually don't know 00:26:28.520 --> 00:26:29.760 what that is i'm gonna look it up. 00:26:29.760 --> 00:26:30.600 I don't know. 00:26:30.600 --> 00:26:36.760 What tax cut and jobs act that's so it's it's it's trump's tax cuts oh tax. 00:26:36.760 --> 00:26:39.840 Cuts of course they're gonna renew that shit yeah. 00:26:39.840 --> 00:26:44.960 Now wait a second oh because they're gonna do it through reconciliation right 00:26:44.960 --> 00:26:47.120 so they don't need 60 votes in the senate yeah. 00:26:47.120 --> 00:26:49.900 They're gonna do that that's how they did the first time yeah they're. 00:26:49.900 --> 00:26:54.100 Gonna get that done yeah i think that's like i agree that's like one of the 00:26:54.100 --> 00:26:59.160 first things yeah that's they're probably going to do that right away in january 00:26:59.160 --> 00:27:02.640 or february yeah like that's going to be a first hundred the one thing they were trying. 00:27:02.640 --> 00:27:05.340 To do is they're trying to throw a bone at some people, 00:27:07.350 --> 00:27:08.950 increase the assault deduction. 00:27:08.950 --> 00:27:11.690 I remember that being talked about in the 00:27:11.690 --> 00:27:14.890 campaign yeah yeah they will 00:27:14.890 --> 00:27:23.470 they will they will extend the tax cuts yes agreed okay next up for me how many 00:27:23.470 --> 00:27:30.490 speakers of the house will there be in 2025 oh with two okay so johnson who 00:27:30.490 --> 00:27:33.250 will start the year no matter what yeah plus somebody else somebody. 00:27:33.250 --> 00:27:39.710 Else yeah yeah these guys are just fighting so so much already that i don't 00:27:39.710 --> 00:27:41.750 see how johnson survives. 00:27:41.750 --> 00:27:44.650 I'm they. 00:27:44.650 --> 00:27:46.570 They hate johnson a. 00:27:46.570 --> 00:27:49.270 Lot i'm gonna go out i'm gonna go out of limb here and say 00:27:49.270 --> 00:27:53.550 three three wow three johnson whoever 00:27:53.550 --> 00:28:03.430 replaces johnson and whoever replaces that person okay um now i i worded this 00:28:03.430 --> 00:28:07.770 wrong in our quip but Like when they actually go in for the new Congress and 00:28:07.770 --> 00:28:09.970 initially vote for the speaker, 00:28:10.270 --> 00:28:13.810 will Johnson be the winner of that vote? 00:28:14.290 --> 00:28:18.230 Or will like, will he become speaker for the next Congress? 00:28:18.590 --> 00:28:23.270 And then in your case, lose later, or is he going to lose right up off the bat? 00:28:24.150 --> 00:28:27.590 No, I think I don't think he's going to lose right off the bat. 00:28:27.730 --> 00:28:29.410 I think it just it just happens later. 00:28:29.750 --> 00:28:33.110 So you think he will actually win the speaker vote in January? 00:28:33.110 --> 00:28:36.310 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think he gets a speaker boat later, but it's just, 00:28:37.970 --> 00:28:39.390 because, yeah, they're going to, 00:28:40.520 --> 00:28:43.700 He's going to win it, and then sometime later he will lose. 00:28:44.060 --> 00:28:47.340 Because he seemed like he was in trouble a couple weeks ago, 00:28:47.340 --> 00:28:51.080 but then it seems like he maybe recovered a little bit from that. 00:28:51.500 --> 00:28:55.300 But that's why I don't think, but the thing is that they kicked the ball, 00:28:55.500 --> 00:28:59.320 they kicked the can down the road on this bunch of thing and whatever. 00:28:59.500 --> 00:29:02.420 I think that's when this whole thing implodes. 00:29:02.740 --> 00:29:08.260 There is one House member who has explicitly said that he won't vote for Johnson, 00:29:08.440 --> 00:29:12.960 but only one. but I think he can only afford two, something like that. 00:29:13.880 --> 00:29:18.660 So your prediction is, yes, he will win the speaker vote in January, 00:29:18.660 --> 00:29:24.520 but when they have to deal with government funding again in like March or whenever it is, 00:29:24.680 --> 00:29:28.100 that's when it'll blow up for him and there'll be a new speaker after that. 00:29:28.260 --> 00:29:28.980 That's your prediction? 00:29:29.480 --> 00:29:29.940 Right. 00:29:30.780 --> 00:29:35.520 Okay. I guess I'll do. My prediction is that he will not win the speaker vote 00:29:35.520 --> 00:29:38.200 in January, that it'll be contentious right away. 00:29:39.280 --> 00:29:44.140 And then at some point later in the year, maybe it's the March thing. 00:29:44.360 --> 00:29:48.780 Maybe it's a little bit later when they have to deal with the debt limit. I don't know. 00:29:49.000 --> 00:29:54.600 Then there will be another crisis later in the year and he will lose the speakership because of that. 00:29:55.820 --> 00:29:55.880 Okay. 00:29:56.060 --> 00:30:00.580 Okay. How many ballots will the first speaker selection take? 00:30:01.360 --> 00:30:03.540 Will he win on the first ballot, Yvonne? 00:30:04.120 --> 00:30:08.760 No. I'm going to give it I'm going to say less than 10. 00:30:09.160 --> 00:30:12.780 Less than 10. Yeah. Okay. 00:30:14.610 --> 00:30:19.050 I will agree with you on less than 10, but should I be more specific? 00:30:19.490 --> 00:30:23.350 Like, I don't think it's going to be one. Like, I mean, maybe he'll pull. 00:30:23.350 --> 00:30:25.650 Okay. It's not, that's what I'm saying. It's not going to be, 00:30:25.810 --> 00:30:29.490 it's going to be more than one. So I'm saying two to 10. 00:30:29.950 --> 00:30:31.190 You're saying two to 10. 00:30:31.450 --> 00:30:32.130 Okay. Yeah. 00:30:32.910 --> 00:30:39.010 I'll say five to 10. Like, so not beating what we got with McCarthy. Cause like. 00:30:39.110 --> 00:30:39.310 No. 00:30:39.490 --> 00:30:42.930 I think they learned their lesson from that. And also they have a deadline. 00:30:42.930 --> 00:30:45.030 They're getting sworn in on January 3rd. 00:30:45.210 --> 00:30:48.790 They have to be able to count electoral votes on January 6th. 00:30:48.830 --> 00:30:52.250 So they only have two and a half days to do this. 00:30:53.310 --> 00:31:01.450 If they don't succeed in picking a speaker by the 6th, it is constitutionally unclear what happens. 00:31:01.730 --> 00:31:07.490 Now, I would suspect that whoever was clerk of the house and acting speaker 00:31:07.490 --> 00:31:12.730 would just do that. But like, theoretically, the Speaker of the House has to 00:31:12.730 --> 00:31:15.910 open that session on January 6th. 00:31:17.310 --> 00:31:22.690 And yeah, so because officially the House doesn't exist until they've picked a speaker. 00:31:23.670 --> 00:31:27.750 So I think they'll be under a lot of pressure. So I'll say five to 10. 00:31:27.950 --> 00:31:31.050 Now, of course, now that we've both said that, he'll win on the first ballot. 00:31:31.290 --> 00:31:32.330 But of course he will. 00:31:33.390 --> 00:31:40.990 Okay. Now, next up, since the House majority is so, so thin, 00:31:41.370 --> 00:31:47.490 after they take the majority in January, will Republicans keep the House majority all year long? 00:31:47.930 --> 00:31:51.030 I mean, that's another way that I think they could lose a fucking position. 00:31:51.500 --> 00:31:52.000 Yes. 00:31:52.560 --> 00:31:57.220 All they need is the wrong couple of people to have something happen to them 00:31:57.220 --> 00:32:02.420 or, you know, whether it's a resignation, a scandal, death, illness, whatever. 00:32:02.860 --> 00:32:10.200 I think that they have high odds of losing it, but I still think they're over 50% of on keeping it. 00:32:10.360 --> 00:32:14.940 So I'm saying they'll somehow manage to, to hang on through the end of the year. 00:32:14.940 --> 00:32:19.880 I will agree. Like as much fun as that scenario would be, like, 00:32:20.020 --> 00:32:21.980 I'm not going to outright predict it. 00:32:22.180 --> 00:32:23.740 But it's very possible. 00:32:24.140 --> 00:32:29.320 It's very possible. Like, you know, like a bunch of Republicans have left for 00:32:29.320 --> 00:32:31.820 the Trump administration, but you know, in that case, they're going to, 00:32:32.000 --> 00:32:37.580 he's, he has picked house members, but he's picked house members from safe Republican districts. 00:32:38.000 --> 00:32:44.560 They're only a handful of purple districts. you would need a republican in a purple district. 00:32:44.560 --> 00:32:46.720 But you have something untimely. 00:32:46.720 --> 00:32:47.700 Happen to them and. 00:32:47.700 --> 00:32:52.080 Yeah yeah yeah but here's the thing you say that and then you still remember 00:32:52.080 --> 00:32:58.160 what happened when sessions got taken from the senate and and and and went you 00:32:58.160 --> 00:33:01.220 know and a special election was 00:33:01.220 --> 00:33:05.020 there and we wound up with a freaking democratic alabama senator you're. 00:33:05.020 --> 00:33:08.780 Right and also there's temporary situations right like. 00:33:08.780 --> 00:33:09.200 Right if. 00:33:09.200 --> 00:33:13.620 You lose if you lose three or four republicans even from safe district. 00:33:13.620 --> 00:33:14.680 Right it. 00:33:14.680 --> 00:33:16.700 Would temporarily give the house. 00:33:16.700 --> 00:33:18.560 To the democrats until. 00:33:18.560 --> 00:33:19.640 They were replaced. 00:33:19.640 --> 00:33:25.060 Great so it's very tenuous and and yeah just picking up some safe districts 00:33:25.060 --> 00:33:30.280 especially on an off-year election doesn't guarantee squat i mean it's happened 00:33:30.280 --> 00:33:34.960 before hell it happened to the Democrats when Kennedy went and died and they 00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:37.960 fucking went like they got a goddamn Republican to Massachusetts. 00:33:38.660 --> 00:33:43.880 You know, this shit happens. Okay. And so just because they're safe districts, 00:33:44.120 --> 00:33:45.480 it's definitely no guarantee. 00:33:46.040 --> 00:33:52.200 Okay. Next up and, and everybody, politics is always our longest segment here. 00:33:52.360 --> 00:33:57.480 So last question in the Congress section, will congressional Republicans, 00:33:57.480 --> 00:34:03.320 either the house or the Senate break with Trump on any significant issue in notable numbers. 00:34:05.660 --> 00:34:07.500 Any significant issue. 00:34:08.260 --> 00:34:11.820 And of course that's lots of wiggle room for interpretation there. 00:34:12.500 --> 00:34:19.480 Like, and I will say like, let's exclude like the debt limit and, and, 00:34:20.240 --> 00:34:26.180 and like budget funding because the routine normal thing for Republicans going 00:34:26.180 --> 00:34:28.160 back like more than a decade, 00:34:28.480 --> 00:34:33.660 is those things get passed with a significant chunk of Republicans voting no, 00:34:33.700 --> 00:34:37.520 and then all of the Democrats plus some Republicans pass. 00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:41.360 I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I. 00:34:42.980 --> 00:34:46.760 I think there, there will be something already in this first year because the 00:34:46.760 --> 00:34:50.120 problem is that he's thrown out so much. 00:34:50.540 --> 00:34:55.740 I mean, he's been just talking about so many fucking things to do that are just 00:34:55.740 --> 00:35:01.800 nuts, but something is going to, something is going to wind up being a fucking shit show. 00:35:02.380 --> 00:35:05.820 I don't agree on, I mean, I agree fully on shit show. 00:35:05.980 --> 00:35:11.180 I will say, I'm going to say no, based on the significant numbers thing. 00:35:11.180 --> 00:35:15.660 like will one or two republicans come out against him on one or two issues maybe 00:35:15.660 --> 00:35:20.980 up to like a half dozen or some so yeah probably especially in the senate maybe 00:35:20.980 --> 00:35:24.880 in the house too but like not enough to like i'm. 00:35:24.880 --> 00:35:25.880 Saying like remember. 00:35:25.880 --> 00:35:26.440 I'm not saying. 00:35:26.440 --> 00:35:28.700 That they're going to fight about everything i'm. 00:35:28.700 --> 00:35:29.200 Saying there. 00:35:29.200 --> 00:35:34.300 Is going to be one thing that there are going to be some of his cronies and 00:35:34.300 --> 00:35:37.020 people are going to be pushing it that they're all going to go say fuck. 00:35:37.020 --> 00:35:41.000 I mean it's essentially already happened like so 00:35:41.000 --> 00:35:43.800 so i i see 00:35:43.800 --> 00:35:47.180 that there's a pretty good chance of it happening and significant numbers 00:35:47.180 --> 00:35:50.920 quote-unquote i was about to say if it's not significant enough to like block 00:35:50.920 --> 00:35:54.540 what he's doing then it doesn't count but you only need one or two people in 00:35:54.540 --> 00:36:00.440 the house right lock anything at this point so right i'll i'll say at least 00:36:00.440 --> 00:36:05.980 some issue i'll agree with you at least something will be foiled by renegade Republicans. 00:36:06.360 --> 00:36:06.640 Yeah. 00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:12.640 Now, Trump will, of course, spin it like in such a way like once he realizes 00:36:12.640 --> 00:36:14.560 that's happening, he'll back off or something. 00:36:15.040 --> 00:36:18.340 He'll spin it. He'll spin it. Listen, Trump will spin. Listen, 00:36:18.540 --> 00:36:21.480 Trump will declare victory over any defeat. 00:36:22.250 --> 00:36:24.330 Yes, of course. Like, yes. 00:36:25.270 --> 00:36:27.150 I mean, even if he loses, he always wins. 00:36:27.170 --> 00:36:30.990 Trump will never admit defeat on anything. There's a prediction right there. 00:36:31.150 --> 00:36:33.990 For the year, Trump will not— He will not be. 00:36:34.070 --> 00:36:39.350 Oh my God, we have been defeated at this. Those words will not be uttered from this mouth ever. 00:36:39.950 --> 00:36:43.970 Yes, agreed. Okay, other politics, and then we will wrap up politics. 00:36:44.650 --> 00:36:48.510 Will any substantive reforms—this is from Bruce, 00:36:48.730 --> 00:36:54.510 and by that he means greater than one billion dollars wait one billion not trillion 00:36:54.510 --> 00:37:01.110 one billion small but one billion nothing you know like i wouldn't even notice 00:37:01.110 --> 00:37:07.110 it if somebody dropped a billion on me you know um or me anyway i'm at from bought. 00:37:07.110 --> 00:37:08.590 That bought that mega millions. 00:37:08.590 --> 00:37:15.530 Yeah i got i got one too like so you shouldn't have bothered because i'm clearly gonna win okay you know. 00:37:15.530 --> 00:37:16.810 All right i'm. 00:37:16.810 --> 00:37:19.830 Already like shopping for yachts will some 00:37:19.830 --> 00:37:22.950 will any substantive reforms emerge from doge let's 00:37:22.950 --> 00:37:28.950 let's negotiate on the billion category like i'll say like no definitely no 00:37:28.950 --> 00:37:34.090 for the trillion level like they're aiming at multiple trillion like 1.5 trillion 00:37:34.090 --> 00:37:39.030 or 2.5 trillion or whatever that's a definite no a billion is small though could 00:37:39.030 --> 00:37:42.630 they find a billion somewhere i bet you. 00:37:42.630 --> 00:37:47.350 They can find a billion okay a billion yes will they find a billion yes but 00:37:47.350 --> 00:37:49.730 that's not really that's just chump change that's. 00:37:49.730 --> 00:37:50.690 Not really substantive. 00:37:50.690 --> 00:37:55.810 No that's chump change yeah i will. 00:37:55.810 --> 00:38:00.450 Say for for the most part doge will be a complete failure they. 00:38:00.450 --> 00:38:00.830 Will come. 00:38:00.830 --> 00:38:04.770 Up with a whole bunch of things that like that. 00:38:04.770 --> 00:38:09.870 That are that are that are just that are just politically toxic yeah and everybody 00:38:09.870 --> 00:38:16.010 will say fuck you we're not doing any of these look yeah this goes back to the well like i. 00:38:16.010 --> 00:38:19.850 Said on the billion they may they may find like one little thing to pull out 00:38:19.850 --> 00:38:22.730 of it to give them some like way to claim. 00:38:22.730 --> 00:38:26.770 Victory without actually having done this goes back to the reagan administration 00:38:26.770 --> 00:38:31.150 and david stockman and how he wrote that book the triumph of politics david 00:38:31.150 --> 00:38:35.330 stockman is the chief of the office of management and budget back then they 00:38:35.330 --> 00:38:39.610 went in with this plan where they said that they were going to, you know, cut the taxes, 00:38:39.870 --> 00:38:44.150 the Laffer curve, we're going to, you know, blah, blah, blah, with all trickle down. 00:38:44.390 --> 00:38:48.970 And the one thing is they needed to do also all these cuts in spending. 00:38:49.310 --> 00:38:53.050 And when it came to cutting the spending, they did, you know, 00:38:53.150 --> 00:38:54.690 they did all the tax cuts first. 00:38:55.440 --> 00:38:59.840 Then they went, oh, let's cut the spending. And what happened? Nothing. 00:39:01.260 --> 00:39:04.960 Nothing. Not one fucking dime 00:39:04.960 --> 00:39:09.220 got really cut. Yeah, some bullshit here and there, whatever, whatnot. 00:39:09.460 --> 00:39:15.100 But at most, you will get things held to current level. You will not have actual cuts. 00:39:15.360 --> 00:39:15.940 Exactly. 00:39:16.060 --> 00:39:19.640 Like you will have a reduction in the planned increase. 00:39:19.840 --> 00:39:25.560 Yeah. I mean, but the deficit exploded and, you know, we've, you know, yeah. 00:39:25.760 --> 00:39:29.160 And that was, that was the end of it. You know, there was no, 00:39:29.180 --> 00:39:34.600 no political will anywhere to go and like all these programs that they have 00:39:34.600 --> 00:39:35.780 identified that they want to cut. 00:39:35.960 --> 00:39:40.780 So no, not, I think, will they find stuff that's over a billion dollars? 00:39:41.600 --> 00:39:42.780 Maybe, probably. 00:39:43.520 --> 00:39:44.720 Will they do any. 00:39:44.920 --> 00:39:48.740 Will they cut any program like the ones they've identified, which is I mean, 00:39:48.860 --> 00:39:51.380 if I'd shit like, hey, let's cut VA health. 00:39:51.640 --> 00:39:57.040 Hey, let's cut. I mean, it's like, look, dude, it's no, not out. 00:39:57.240 --> 00:40:02.680 I will say further. I fully believe they will find something over a billion 00:40:02.680 --> 00:40:05.560 dollars that they managed to cut. 00:40:06.080 --> 00:40:10.240 But I will say it will be compensate compensated for by increases. 00:40:11.340 --> 00:40:11.820 Exactly. 00:40:12.540 --> 00:40:18.080 You know, like they will find scapegoat programs that Republicans don't like. 00:40:18.380 --> 00:40:21.620 And they will get rid of them. But then, like, simultaneously, 00:40:21.620 --> 00:40:26.540 they'll do something like increased defense funding or, oh, I know, 00:40:27.100 --> 00:40:29.720 increased funding for SpaceX. You know? 00:40:30.220 --> 00:40:31.120 That's, you know. 00:40:32.560 --> 00:40:33.920 You know, whatever. 00:40:34.220 --> 00:40:40.180 All I'm saying is what I've got, Laura Loomer is my ally. What the fuck is this plan to come to? 00:40:40.540 --> 00:40:44.020 Okay. Ten seconds. What happened with Laura Loomer? Say it. 00:40:44.020 --> 00:40:49.100 She basically said what she just said, that all this Doge thing is, 00:40:49.540 --> 00:40:52.620 hey, I've just figured out that these guys, all they're doing is want to cut 00:40:52.620 --> 00:40:54.900 money from other stuff just to line their pockets with it. 00:40:56.220 --> 00:40:57.440 That's what Elon's doing. 00:40:58.100 --> 00:41:05.540 Yes. But I think your overall prediction, though, that, you know, yeah, tax cuts. Yes. 00:41:05.960 --> 00:41:08.780 Spending cuts. No. That's the rough summary. 00:41:09.020 --> 00:41:09.160 Yes. 00:41:09.600 --> 00:41:15.340 Yeah. Okay. Will also from Bruce, will there be any SCOTUS openings? 00:41:15.480 --> 00:41:16.760 I'll say yes. Absolutely. 00:41:17.540 --> 00:41:18.440 Fuck me. 00:41:18.780 --> 00:41:21.780 That probably. I mean, this year. 00:41:22.040 --> 00:41:23.260 But this. No, but this year. 00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:27.740 This year, this year, this year, everybody hit the reporting. 00:41:27.740 --> 00:41:30.740 has said that both thomas 00:41:30.740 --> 00:41:33.760 and alito are just waiting for a republican to 00:41:33.760 --> 00:41:37.700 retire ah okay and so 00:41:37.700 --> 00:41:43.500 i definitely they i could see them spacing those out so i won't say if we'll 00:41:43.500 --> 00:41:48.680 get one or two but i'll say at least one at least one and you you could always 00:41:48.680 --> 00:41:54.080 get surprises of more but i think you'll you'll get at least one in 2025 okay 00:41:54.080 --> 00:41:57.060 and what's your prediction you think. 00:41:58.220 --> 00:41:59.760 I think not this year. 00:42:00.680 --> 00:42:03.380 They'll figure they have four years. They can wait. And Thomas, 00:42:03.520 --> 00:42:08.360 for instance, he's got all the money coming in. He's got all that stuff. 00:42:08.700 --> 00:42:09.520 He likes this job. 00:42:09.700 --> 00:42:11.800 Why stop that before he has to? 00:42:12.100 --> 00:42:12.240 Right. 00:42:12.400 --> 00:42:15.480 That's what I'll say. From what I've heard the reporting of, 00:42:15.540 --> 00:42:17.580 he doesn't actually particularly like the job. 00:42:17.780 --> 00:42:20.660 He does like the cash coming in. 00:42:21.560 --> 00:42:23.980 You know, the cash and perks. 00:42:24.900 --> 00:42:27.780 So maybe Alito will be the one to go. I don't know. 00:42:29.320 --> 00:42:34.660 But also, you could very well be right that they decide to wait because they've 00:42:34.660 --> 00:42:37.360 got four years now. They can retire. 00:42:37.720 --> 00:42:40.240 They can hang on for another couple of years and then go. 00:42:42.160 --> 00:42:46.660 I think those two are a definite sometime during this administration, 00:42:46.660 --> 00:42:50.320 but I'm still going to predict at least one this year. 00:42:50.760 --> 00:42:52.660 Okay. Okay. 00:42:53.310 --> 00:42:58.710 Bruce wants to know the size of the 2025 budget deficit. We usually put that 00:42:58.710 --> 00:42:59.810 in economy, but he put it. 00:43:00.730 --> 00:43:01.490 I don't. 00:43:01.570 --> 00:43:02.190 What is it now? 00:43:02.810 --> 00:43:03.530 Fuck. I don't. 00:43:03.630 --> 00:43:06.650 I will. I will just say it will be up. It will be. 00:43:06.890 --> 00:43:07.630 The deficit will go up. 00:43:07.810 --> 00:43:08.850 It will go up. 00:43:08.870 --> 00:43:10.650 Whatever it is, it's going to go up. 00:43:11.230 --> 00:43:11.610 Yeah. 00:43:11.850 --> 00:43:11.970 Yeah. 00:43:12.030 --> 00:43:16.410 Yeah. I won't give a number, but it will go up. I mean, if they pass the damn 00:43:16.410 --> 00:43:17.890 tax cuts, of course it will. 00:43:18.230 --> 00:43:19.210 Yes. Yes. 00:43:19.210 --> 00:43:28.150 Like, well, if they pass an extension at current levels, then that ostensibly is flat over right now. 00:43:28.570 --> 00:43:32.050 But they'll probably add some stuff to it. And like we said, 00:43:32.130 --> 00:43:34.030 they're not going to do cuts. Some other stuff will increase, 00:43:34.170 --> 00:43:36.250 blah, blah, blah. It will be up. The deficit will be up. 00:43:36.470 --> 00:43:42.010 Because, you know, as usual, we have the scenario where deficits go down with 00:43:42.010 --> 00:43:45.770 Democratic presidents and go up with Republican presidents. I mean, 00:43:46.070 --> 00:43:51.390 that pattern is held for most of our lives, Yvonne. I don't see any reason why that's going to change. 00:43:51.450 --> 00:43:52.370 Not going to change. 00:43:52.830 --> 00:43:58.730 Yeah. Okay. Next up for me, will the debt limit be increased? Yes. 00:43:59.010 --> 00:43:59.330 Yes. 00:43:59.610 --> 00:44:03.950 They made that agreement right now. I don't think that's going to change. 00:44:04.170 --> 00:44:05.570 It will, as usual, happen. 00:44:05.810 --> 00:44:11.790 I shouldn't make extra predictions, but as usual, it will happen with Democrats plus a few Republicans. 00:44:12.450 --> 00:44:16.050 Republicans will hate it. There'll be that core group of Republicans who hate 00:44:16.050 --> 00:44:20.850 it and vote against it, but it will happen. Will there be a government shutdown? 00:44:21.790 --> 00:44:27.030 Yes oh for sure i think we're we're gonna get one the first time this money 00:44:27.030 --> 00:44:31.390 runs out oh yeah uh well i think that. 00:44:31.390 --> 00:44:33.450 I think they'll avoid it again. 00:44:33.450 --> 00:44:38.110 I'll be brief but we'll have a shutdown these guys listen like they already 00:44:38.110 --> 00:44:41.970 you already had to listen you already had to lie to them like through the teeth 00:44:41.970 --> 00:44:43.950 to get this this resolution well. 00:44:43.950 --> 00:44:45.950 Like the one that happened this time like. 00:44:45.950 --> 00:44:46.750 Yeah did. 00:44:46.750 --> 00:44:51.070 It count because they technically missed the deadline biden biden. 00:44:51.070 --> 00:44:55.310 Like signed that bill into law like 12 hours after yeah yeah yeah it didn't 00:44:55.310 --> 00:45:00.390 count nobody's paychecks got cut nobody it wasn't happened over a weekend the dead dead no no. 00:45:00.390 --> 00:45:03.470 No okay but you you think there will be one. 00:45:03.470 --> 00:45:04.090 Oh yeah i'm. 00:45:04.090 --> 00:45:06.170 Gonna i'm gonna say no they'll avoid it again. 00:45:06.170 --> 00:45:09.370 Yeah i think okay sure also. 00:45:09.370 --> 00:45:14.170 For me will Will there be a significant state versus federal confrontation, 00:45:14.890 --> 00:45:19.070 like when the states resisted integration in the South, over Trump trying to 00:45:19.070 --> 00:45:21.130 impose policies on the states? 00:45:22.010 --> 00:45:23.330 Wait. Huh? 00:45:24.270 --> 00:45:30.310 Okay. During the civil rights era, there were national federal policies on integration and the like. 00:45:30.410 --> 00:45:30.630 Yeah? 00:45:30.890 --> 00:45:36.990 And various states resisted those and the feds were brought in to enforce it. 00:45:36.990 --> 00:45:39.670 Will that kind of thing happen in the 00:45:39.670 --> 00:45:45.270 first year of the Trump administration where at the federal level they're trying 00:45:45.270 --> 00:45:51.430 to enforce immigration policy or abortion policy or anything like that where 00:45:51.430 --> 00:45:56.390 individual states resist that and there ends up being a confrontation between 00:45:56.390 --> 00:45:57.470 federal and state authorities? 00:45:57.470 --> 00:46:00.810 I think it's going to just state at the legal, at the courts level. 00:46:01.010 --> 00:46:04.390 It's not like they're going to march in troops to enforce. 00:46:04.830 --> 00:46:07.710 Like they did in the 60s. Cause that did happen in the second. 00:46:07.750 --> 00:46:09.910 Yeah. That did not go over well. 00:46:10.670 --> 00:46:15.990 Well, I mean, yeah, the feds ended up imposing their will against the states 00:46:15.990 --> 00:46:18.710 in that case, which in that particular case, I approve. 00:46:19.030 --> 00:46:25.090 I imagine I would disagree with Trump trying to do the same if some state would resist. 00:46:25.150 --> 00:46:26.850 But it was very, you know. 00:46:27.450 --> 00:46:28.750 It depends on the thing. 00:46:29.310 --> 00:46:39.110 Yeah, it was, you know, it overall that although that was done, it was problematic. 00:46:39.110 --> 00:46:42.190 Okay but you're saying that won't happen now 00:46:42.190 --> 00:46:45.170 i'm gonna say it will and at least one place 00:46:45.170 --> 00:46:51.990 there will be a situation where you know state authorities are actively saying 00:46:51.990 --> 00:46:58.790 no to something trump wants and trump's going to do something you know nationalize 00:46:58.790 --> 00:47:02.630 the national guard or or Or instruct, you know, 00:47:03.090 --> 00:47:05.570 the FBI to do something, 00:47:06.110 --> 00:47:11.330 you know, I don't know, like there'd be some sort of conflict of that sort that's 00:47:11.330 --> 00:47:12.310 outside of just the courts. 00:47:12.310 --> 00:47:15.050 I keep thinking in my head, just like troops, like all of a sudden, 00:47:15.250 --> 00:47:20.390 like, you know, or, you know, making something happen. I just don't think that's going to happen. 00:47:20.830 --> 00:47:26.610 Okay. Next up, will the number of undocumented migrants entering the United 00:47:26.610 --> 00:47:29.670 States go up or down? Also for me. 00:47:30.190 --> 00:47:35.030 I think a number of listen during the Trump administration they had a surge 00:47:35.030 --> 00:47:40.410 of border crossings you know this is the whole thing so he will say that he 00:47:40.410 --> 00:47:44.210 will get the border under control but and are we talking. 00:47:44.210 --> 00:47:46.530 Not or gross we should specify. 00:47:47.480 --> 00:47:50.260 I'm talking gross number of crossings. 00:47:50.500 --> 00:47:51.280 Okay. Yes. 00:47:51.360 --> 00:47:52.740 Yeah. Yeah. 00:47:52.860 --> 00:47:53.820 You think it's going to go up? 00:47:54.080 --> 00:47:54.500 Yeah. 00:47:55.920 --> 00:47:59.560 An actual number of estimated crossings, not number caught. 00:48:00.060 --> 00:48:02.240 Right. Correct. Yeah. 00:48:02.800 --> 00:48:04.120 Do we have good numbers on that? 00:48:04.440 --> 00:48:06.080 There are. I mean, let me. 00:48:06.840 --> 00:48:15.260 There's good numbers on caught. I know, but I'm going to say it will go down because Trump will. 00:48:15.860 --> 00:48:17.460 You're right. it went up when he 00:48:17.460 --> 00:48:23.700 was being exceptionally harsh like four years ago but i think in the end, 00:48:24.820 --> 00:48:32.080 that that there's more to do with other like the situations in the home countries and stuff well yes. 00:48:32.080 --> 00:48:40.340 And but but i i think that well that's the problem okay that we've had you know 00:48:40.340 --> 00:48:45.340 this is the global population the global situation is getting better. 00:48:45.340 --> 00:48:51.700 Right it's not no you know are you going to change my mind no i'll stick with 00:48:51.700 --> 00:48:58.140 it'll go down it'll go down but not by much how about total immigration including 00:48:58.140 --> 00:48:59.940 legal immigration to the u.s. 00:48:59.940 --> 00:49:01.600 Up or down i'm. 00:49:01.600 --> 00:49:02.220 Going to say down. 00:49:02.220 --> 00:49:05.620 Yeah because there are a lot of people who find. 00:49:05.620 --> 00:49:07.060 Coming here less attractive. 00:49:07.060 --> 00:49:09.920 Yeah probably go down you see the 00:49:09.920 --> 00:49:12.880 thing is my problem is that you've got the one data of 00:49:12.880 --> 00:49:16.400 course that i i found is the number of encounters by 00:49:16.400 --> 00:49:21.700 u.s border patrols which by the way that doesn't really is not the same no it's 00:49:21.700 --> 00:49:27.640 not the same at all no at all it means that they're they're being far more effective 00:49:27.640 --> 00:49:34.840 at like intercepting people it's not this is uh uh so i i don't uh, 00:49:36.030 --> 00:49:41.730 You know, you know, I have to see, I'm going to have to find to see if we've got good data. 00:49:41.910 --> 00:49:45.190 How about deportations? Will deportations actually go up? 00:49:45.610 --> 00:49:50.630 Like, like Donald Trump, one of his main pillars is I'm going to deport like 00:49:50.630 --> 00:49:53.530 millions and millions of people, mass deportations. 00:49:54.890 --> 00:49:59.550 Like, will deportations actually go up 2025 versus 2024? 00:49:59.930 --> 00:50:03.170 I don't think so because they've already been ramped up like crazy. 00:50:03.370 --> 00:50:06.330 This is the problem. understand they're already 00:50:06.330 --> 00:50:09.150 i mean i don't i 00:50:09.150 --> 00:50:12.430 don't understand how physically we increase that but it's 00:50:12.430 --> 00:50:17.710 already at the number of encounters are record numbers we've had record numbers 00:50:17.710 --> 00:50:22.170 of deportations and the reality is that they went down under the first trump 00:50:22.170 --> 00:50:26.830 administration versus the obama administration so i'm not even like i i don't 00:50:26.830 --> 00:50:29.610 i don't i don't know man i i is i'm. 00:50:29.610 --> 00:50:33.770 Gonna I'm going to say, yes, it will go up. He will figure out a way to make it go up. 00:50:33.890 --> 00:50:41.410 And even, and separate prediction aside from the numbers, there will be show deeper deportations. 00:50:41.570 --> 00:50:42.430 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:50:42.490 --> 00:50:45.590 That, that will, he will make a point of having 00:50:45.590 --> 00:50:51.850 really highly visible deportations where they're going in and doing raids and 00:50:51.850 --> 00:50:57.370 kicking people out of the country and stuff like that to make it look like there's 00:50:57.370 --> 00:51:03.010 a big effort regardless of the numbers and to make it seem extremely hostile. 00:51:04.330 --> 00:51:08.210 But I think the number actually will go up. I think this was such a central 00:51:08.210 --> 00:51:10.430 plank they'll figure out a way to make it happen. 00:51:11.110 --> 00:51:13.890 Any more thoughts on this one? If not, it's time to take a break. 00:51:14.510 --> 00:51:18.810 Encounters, nationwide encounters, southwest land border encounters, title eight. 00:51:19.310 --> 00:51:22.850 That's the problem. I mean the only real information we have are encounters. 00:51:23.370 --> 00:51:23.950 Mm-hmm. 00:51:24.730 --> 00:51:26.090 And they went way up. 00:51:27.260 --> 00:51:29.940 Under Biden from the Trump administration. 00:51:31.160 --> 00:51:36.160 Yeah, I'm not even going to go there. The impression is so counter than that, 00:51:36.360 --> 00:51:38.580 like that was left during the campaign, right? 00:51:38.860 --> 00:51:44.960 They successfully managed to paint Biden as like a pansy on the border, 00:51:44.960 --> 00:51:47.940 but he was deporting way more people than Trump did. 00:51:48.120 --> 00:51:52.020 Exactly. So it's, I'm like, okay. 00:51:55.120 --> 00:51:55.680 Anyway. 00:51:56.340 --> 00:51:56.480 Okay. 00:51:56.480 --> 00:52:02.080 By the way, have you heard from, ever since Trump won, any of those governors 00:52:02.080 --> 00:52:03.800 complaining about the border crisis? 00:52:04.340 --> 00:52:06.400 Nah, I haven't heard anything lately. No. 00:52:06.700 --> 00:52:08.420 Me neither. It's amazing. 00:52:08.520 --> 00:52:14.800 Amazing that. Yeah. Okay, let's take a break, and we will come back for international. 00:52:15.420 --> 00:52:20.900 I normally randomize the breaks, but I'm just going to go in order from oldest to newest here. 00:52:20.900 --> 00:52:23.740 and uh yeah because it's easier for 00:52:23.740 --> 00:52:26.840 me and it doesn't bring up a chance of the ones i have to prepare for 00:52:26.840 --> 00:52:30.880 here we go and yvonne's 00:52:30.880 --> 00:52:37.320 dying already uh this this segment is almost always by far our longest segment 00:52:37.320 --> 00:52:42.640 like twice three times as long as anything else and we're we generally zoom 00:52:42.640 --> 00:52:47.060 through each segment is usually shorter than the one before so anyway here we 00:52:47.060 --> 00:52:50.240 go uh first break ray lynch here we go, 00:52:54.940 --> 00:52:55.420 No. 00:52:55.580 --> 00:52:59.600 No, it's not the beginning of the show again. We're just taking a little time 00:52:59.600 --> 00:53:04.200 to credit the artist responsible for the music we use at the beginning and end of the show. 00:53:04.680 --> 00:53:10.620 What you are listening to right now is The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch. 00:53:12.680 --> 00:53:13.160 The O of Pleasure by Ray Lynch. 00:54:39.130 --> 00:54:43.550 You can check out Ray Lynch or buy his music at RayLynch.com, 00:54:43.710 --> 00:54:47.650 iTunes, Amazon, or anywhere you usually find music. 00:54:50.970 --> 00:54:55.370 Okay, we're back and it's time for international starting with Europe. 00:54:55.950 --> 00:55:00.430 First question is from Bruce. Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? 00:55:01.130 --> 00:55:01.310 No. 00:55:01.910 --> 00:55:02.370 No. 00:55:02.910 --> 00:55:04.450 In this year, no. 00:55:04.570 --> 00:55:07.770 In 2025. How do you think it's going to play out? 00:55:07.770 --> 00:55:11.030 I think it might be a ceasefire later, but I just don't, no, 00:55:11.150 --> 00:55:15.610 no, I just don't think there will be a ceasefire this year. 00:55:15.790 --> 00:55:18.150 This year, this year, well, 2025. 00:55:18.670 --> 00:55:22.970 Yeah. I mean, 2025. Yeah. Yeah. I just don't think it's 25, 2026, 00:55:23.190 --> 00:55:25.290 maybe, but I just don't, don't think 2025. 00:55:25.670 --> 00:55:28.690 But Yvonne, Donald Trump said he would do it in 24 hours. 00:55:28.950 --> 00:55:31.630 Well, apparently Putin already told him no. 00:55:32.290 --> 00:55:42.230 So, yeah, but I think I'm going to say yes, but not because of like, 00:55:42.430 --> 00:55:47.510 I think it's just going to be a situation where you almost have to, 00:55:47.550 --> 00:55:51.150 like with the lack of support from the Trump side, 00:55:51.570 --> 00:55:55.990 Ukraine is going to just be in a very bad spot and is going to have to like 00:55:55.990 --> 00:56:00.110 look for something where, and we're not talking about a permanent peace deal. 00:56:00.110 --> 00:56:06.370 We're just talking about a ceasefire where some sort of thing where they freeze the line back off. 00:56:06.590 --> 00:56:07.710 I mean, look, we're not. 00:56:07.850 --> 00:56:12.570 Yeah. So you're saying you're saying that if if if there's weakness on the Ukraine 00:56:12.570 --> 00:56:15.010 side, the Russians are just going to push forward. 00:56:15.190 --> 00:56:19.190 They're not going to agree to a pause because like you could you could imagine 00:56:19.190 --> 00:56:25.030 even like the reason Ukraine says they don't want to cease fire is because the 00:56:25.030 --> 00:56:28.970 Russians will just take the opportunity to refresh their forces, rearm, whatever. 00:56:28.970 --> 00:56:34.610 You don't think the Russians would want a pause just for those purposes and 00:56:34.610 --> 00:56:36.230 then resume a few months later. 00:56:36.450 --> 00:56:40.190 Yeah, no, they don't want to do that. You know... 00:56:40.970 --> 00:56:47.590 There is a lot of like material and munitions and other things that I have heard 00:56:47.590 --> 00:56:53.630 are being also sourced from other places right now. There's also a whole bunch of different like. 00:56:53.710 --> 00:56:59.270 Well, the whole Russian war effort is at this point, almost a proxy for North Korea and Iran. 00:56:59.650 --> 00:57:02.750 Well, exactly. So that's why I'm like, I don't know, man. 00:57:02.950 --> 00:57:10.150 I just don't think that I don't, I think there'll be a lot of posturing and negotiating this year. 00:57:10.150 --> 00:57:12.950 But I just don't think that it's going to happen that quickly in 2025, 00:57:12.950 --> 00:57:18.470 you know, especially because Putin just got his ass handed to him in Syria. 00:57:18.910 --> 00:57:19.490 Yes. 00:57:19.750 --> 00:57:28.070 And I don't think that from his perspective, he would see a ceasefire right 00:57:28.070 --> 00:57:32.250 now as beneficial because of the embarrassment of which has happened in Syria. 00:57:33.110 --> 00:57:39.290 I'm going to say yes to a ceasefire, but I don't think it will last. 00:57:39.810 --> 00:57:44.890 Like there may be a ceasefire for a short amount of time, but not through, 00:57:45.190 --> 00:57:48.710 not necessarily through the end of the year. 00:57:49.210 --> 00:57:52.330 So you think there's going to be like some kind of short ceasefire? 00:57:52.890 --> 00:57:56.690 Yeah. Like I think there's going to be some sort of thing where. 00:57:56.990 --> 00:57:59.950 Well, let's be clear. I don't want to drag it out. 00:58:00.610 --> 00:58:05.330 You think, yes, ceasefire, at least one, even brief, I say no way. 00:58:06.130 --> 00:58:10.010 Okay, and then Bruce's next question is, will there be a signed peace deal in 00:58:10.010 --> 00:58:10.990 Ukraine? And I'm going to say no. 00:58:10.990 --> 00:58:15.510 Oh, fuck, no. Jesus Christ. I mean, you know, there's been wars that have had 00:58:15.510 --> 00:58:19.690 30, we don't have a peace deal from the Korean War yet, for God's sakes. 00:58:19.890 --> 00:58:21.810 No, we don't. That's still technically a war. 00:58:22.150 --> 00:58:26.670 And remember, World War II ended in 1989, or was it 93? 00:58:27.150 --> 00:58:31.210 It might have even been passed. It was like 93 or so. It was with German unification 00:58:31.210 --> 00:58:34.190 was when their peace treaty with the U.S. 00:58:34.390 --> 00:58:36.510 was actually signed for World War II. 00:58:36.590 --> 00:58:40.730 Right. So, yeah. So, you know, the fuck are we talking about? Hell no. 00:58:41.310 --> 00:58:46.890 Yeah. No signed peace deal, but I think there will be at least one ceasefire. 00:58:47.010 --> 00:58:52.430 And I think it's going to primarily be driven by the fact that Ukraine is going 00:58:52.430 --> 00:58:58.810 to be really struggling without the same levels of active support that Biden has been giving. what. 00:58:58.810 --> 00:58:59.930 I what i just think. 00:58:59.930 --> 00:59:03.110 Is although trump has said trump in an interview last week 00:59:03.110 --> 00:59:09.430 or two weeks ago something said that he would be in favor of with a ceasefire 00:59:09.430 --> 00:59:15.510 actually continuing to arm ukraine and even potentially putting nato forces 00:59:15.510 --> 00:59:22.910 in ukraine as long as the is part of a deal that said you know whatever uh. 00:59:24.030 --> 00:59:26.770 But how do I explain to you? 00:59:26.850 --> 00:59:30.870 This might be one of those Nixon to China things where like Trump can pull something 00:59:30.870 --> 00:59:32.530 off that Biden was never able to. 00:59:33.030 --> 00:59:39.930 Maybe. But the thing is that, look, he's like a weather vane. I mean, what the hell? 00:59:40.210 --> 00:59:44.210 I mean, come on. I don't know. Tomorrow the wind's going to be going the other way. 00:59:44.370 --> 00:59:48.430 And he's going to say that we're, you know, fucking we're turning Ukraine over to Russia. 00:59:49.030 --> 00:59:50.490 We'll bomb Ukraine ourselves. 00:59:51.790 --> 00:59:56.750 Yes. That would be out of the realm of possibility of something that he would say one day. Yes. 00:59:58.570 --> 01:00:02.530 So anyway, summary, you're saying no ceasefire, no peace deal. 01:00:02.710 --> 01:00:06.210 I'm saying yes, ceasefire, no peace deal. And the ceasefire may be temporary. 01:00:06.530 --> 01:00:10.690 And the may be temporary. That part's not a prediction, but yes. Okay. 01:00:11.270 --> 01:00:16.250 Well, then Ed asks the other part of it, sort of the complete opposite direction. 01:00:16.430 --> 01:00:19.710 Will Ukraine be defeated and completely annexed into Russia? 01:00:20.470 --> 01:00:21.990 I don't think that's happening either. 01:00:21.990 --> 01:00:25.070 Look i think all i'm saying is that for 01:00:25.070 --> 01:00:28.170 all of russia's might and how much they put into syria 01:00:28.170 --> 01:00:32.730 and how quickly that folded and even afghanistan were to try the same thing 01:00:32.730 --> 01:00:36.830 and they folded there too ukraine is actually stronger than either of those 01:00:36.830 --> 01:00:40.490 they don't have the war with all for that they have they have the they have 01:00:40.490 --> 01:00:46.710 the thing to inflict damage that they do but you know the the reality. 01:00:46.710 --> 01:00:51.350 Of the situation in ukraine is all of the major action in terms of land-changing 01:00:51.350 --> 01:00:57.410 hands happened either when they took Crimea years ago, 01:00:57.410 --> 01:01:01.850 or in the first few months of the full invasion. 01:01:02.930 --> 01:01:07.510 And that since then, once Ukraine repelled that initial assault, 01:01:07.830 --> 01:01:12.010 the front lines have been really static for a long time. 01:01:12.270 --> 01:01:19.070 In the last year, Russia has gained some ground. 01:01:19.070 --> 01:01:22.950 Like it's been a long time since Ukraine gained ground, not aside from their 01:01:22.950 --> 01:01:29.330 little thing in Kursk, but it's, it's been tiny amounts of land for the most part, 01:01:29.610 --> 01:01:34.650 things have been pretty stagnant for over a year now. 01:01:35.030 --> 01:01:35.150 Yeah. 01:01:36.390 --> 01:01:41.050 Here's an additional one. Will Ukraine still have a presence in Kursk at the 01:01:41.050 --> 01:01:44.350 end of the year? Like actually inside Russia? I'm going to say no. 01:01:46.810 --> 01:01:50.790 Ah, I get that right. I think so. And the cursor region F. 01:01:52.070 --> 01:01:56.730 I hate these questions. I'll go with yes. 01:01:57.530 --> 01:02:06.590 Okay. I will also add, will the percentage of Ukraine occupied by Russia go up or down in 2025? 01:02:07.110 --> 01:02:09.830 And through November, because that's as far as we'll know, probably. 01:02:10.090 --> 01:02:14.630 I will say Russia, the Russian percentage will increase. 01:02:14.930 --> 01:02:15.390 Yes. 01:02:15.790 --> 01:02:16.410 You agree? 01:02:16.690 --> 01:02:17.070 Yes. 01:02:17.790 --> 01:02:24.290 Okay. Moving on from Ukraine, Bruce asks, will there be a coup in any European country? 01:02:25.670 --> 01:02:27.010 No, I'll agree. 01:02:28.430 --> 01:02:34.350 Through non-coup means, this one's from me, will right-wing parties take power 01:02:34.350 --> 01:02:36.810 in any more European countries in 2025? 01:02:36.990 --> 01:02:39.990 It looks like Germany's government just collapsed. 01:02:40.310 --> 01:02:44.210 France's government has been having issues. They're both likely to have that 01:02:44.210 --> 01:02:45.990 resolved in one way or another this year. 01:02:46.110 --> 01:02:48.970 There may be other countries. i know that there were some. 01:02:48.970 --> 01:02:53.470 I'm gonna say no and i'm gonna tell you why because i do think that trump re-elected 01:02:53.470 --> 01:02:57.210 also swings the pendulum of opinion on this like the other way it's one of these 01:02:57.210 --> 01:03:00.990 like you know you get these pendulum swings of this shit i think we've had the 01:03:00.990 --> 01:03:05.730 pendulum swing like way like that way like right now and i think it's gonna 01:03:05.730 --> 01:03:07.930 start coming back to a certain extent how. 01:03:07.930 --> 01:03:09.710 About any eastern european like near. 01:03:09.710 --> 01:03:13.930 Russia yeah yeah yeah they actually they've tried that And it's been, 01:03:13.930 --> 01:03:17.310 you know, it's been met with like complete opposite. Okay. 01:03:18.450 --> 01:03:24.470 I will say no. Oh, well, we're on right wing parties taking power now, not coup. 01:03:25.010 --> 01:03:28.890 Yeah. Right wing parties taking power. So I'm saying that even like there's 01:03:28.890 --> 01:03:32.870 been certain countries like near the Ukraine. 01:03:32.870 --> 01:03:36.690 Wait, wait, wait. Let me ask. Do we just count? 01:03:37.570 --> 01:03:41.330 Do the conservative parties count or do we have to have like the neo-Nazis? 01:03:41.330 --> 01:03:46.870 Like if the more conservative parties take over in Germany and France, does that count? 01:03:47.050 --> 01:03:48.130 Well, it's like right wing. 01:03:48.630 --> 01:03:53.990 Yeah. So I was thinking Germany and France could both go right. 01:03:55.670 --> 01:04:00.490 Well, I mean, I'm already considering that they have gone already for the right. 01:04:00.710 --> 01:04:04.670 The question is whether you think that they're going to install a right government. 01:04:05.310 --> 01:04:06.210 The reality is that they have. 01:04:06.490 --> 01:04:09.790 No, but the reality is that installing, they've moved right. Right. 01:04:10.110 --> 01:04:14.730 But the parliament of both countries are more, more to the right than they were. 01:04:14.870 --> 01:04:19.790 But the actual composition is like the actual leaders are not right. 01:04:19.790 --> 01:04:24.570 Exactly. Because they only have about 30 percent. So it's one of those things 01:04:24.570 --> 01:04:27.170 where, yeah, they have increased percentages. 01:04:27.790 --> 01:04:31.590 Will a conservative coalition take over for more liberal coalitions? 01:04:32.570 --> 01:04:34.730 I'm going to say yes, in both France and Germany. 01:04:35.800 --> 01:04:37.400 Yeah, sure. Okay. 01:04:38.340 --> 01:04:43.860 Okay. But we're both saying, yes, it may be a more conservative government. 01:04:43.860 --> 01:04:44.920 It's not a neo-Nazi. 01:04:44.980 --> 01:04:48.860 But it's not going to be like Le Pen is the next president of France or something. 01:04:49.000 --> 01:04:50.080 No, no, no. 01:04:50.460 --> 01:04:53.660 Or the AFD or whatever is not going to rule Germany. 01:04:54.000 --> 01:04:54.180 Right. 01:04:54.800 --> 01:04:59.600 Okay. And my next question was, if so, which? I said France and Germany. 01:05:00.300 --> 01:05:00.440 Yeah. 01:05:01.340 --> 01:05:04.420 Okay. Will Russia invade any more countries? 01:05:05.020 --> 01:05:05.500 No. 01:05:06.440 --> 01:05:10.240 No, I'm going to say no as well. They've been really battered by this one. 01:05:10.460 --> 01:05:18.140 They would need to sort of, I feel like they're not going to invade more until this one is resolved. 01:05:18.260 --> 01:05:20.820 And I don't think this one's going to be resolved in 2025. 01:05:21.240 --> 01:05:22.200 Yeah, exactly. 01:05:23.040 --> 01:05:27.660 Okay. Middle East. Will any Russian troops still be president? 01:05:28.240 --> 01:05:32.720 President. Will any Russian troops still be present in Syria at the end of the year? 01:05:33.540 --> 01:05:35.760 They've got some naval bases right now. 01:05:36.320 --> 01:05:37.040 Yeah, I know. 01:05:37.180 --> 01:05:38.120 And some other presidents. 01:05:39.340 --> 01:05:42.340 I'm thinking that they're going to wind them kicking them out. 01:05:42.940 --> 01:05:44.540 Yeah, I think they're out. 01:05:44.860 --> 01:05:50.060 Yeah, they're out. I mean, the people who have taken over have definitely want 01:05:50.060 --> 01:05:51.040 them out. They don't want them there. 01:05:51.800 --> 01:05:55.600 How about U.S. troops? We've got like 900 there right now. 01:05:55.600 --> 01:05:59.820 We keep having 900 of them. They've never totally left. 01:06:00.820 --> 01:06:03.720 Well, you're talking about the Middle East. But wait, is it, 01:06:03.820 --> 01:06:05.740 you're talking Syria specifically or Middle East? 01:06:05.840 --> 01:06:11.220 Syria specifically. Syria specifically. These two questions are both from Bruce, by the way. 01:06:11.960 --> 01:06:15.840 I got to say there's going to be some troops there. Like, you know, 01:06:16.300 --> 01:06:18.040 I mean, right now we're talking about 900. 01:06:18.460 --> 01:06:21.460 So I don't think the U.S. is leaving. This is, you know. 01:06:21.560 --> 01:06:23.400 If you remember. We're going to have a non-zero number. 01:06:24.020 --> 01:06:27.860 This particular set of troops was there all the way back to the Trump administration. 01:06:28.280 --> 01:06:31.280 They're guarding oil fields or something. 01:06:31.280 --> 01:06:31.520 Yeah. 01:06:31.520 --> 01:06:36.640 I forget the details, but something like that. And Trump was convinced to put 01:06:36.640 --> 01:06:38.980 him there in the first place. I don't think he's going to change his mind. 01:06:39.240 --> 01:06:42.800 That part of Syria is not having a lot. 01:06:43.100 --> 01:06:48.180 I mean, the American troops there have not been under a lot of attack. 01:06:48.400 --> 01:06:53.200 I don't think there's been nothing, but it's not been a major source of U.S. 01:06:53.300 --> 01:06:54.360 casualties or anything. 01:06:54.680 --> 01:06:58.960 And so I think the U.S. troops are saying, and I'm going to go back on Russia. 01:06:58.960 --> 01:07:02.200 I think they're going to want the Russians out, but aren't actually going to 01:07:02.200 --> 01:07:03.320 be able to force them out. 01:07:03.420 --> 01:07:06.720 So I think there will be Russian troops still in Syria at the time. 01:07:07.980 --> 01:07:12.680 And I'm going to go out of order on my list a little bit just to finish up the Syria stuff. 01:07:13.240 --> 01:07:18.260 Ed wants to know, will a new dictatorship or equivalent take over in Syria? 01:07:18.300 --> 01:07:22.880 And he makes a prediction that he thinks yes, by August 2025. Yeah. 01:07:23.340 --> 01:07:28.400 Let me give my answer. I think the government that takes over in Damascus will 01:07:28.400 --> 01:07:33.180 not be, you know, a fun, friendly democracy with liberal values. 01:07:33.600 --> 01:07:40.220 It's going, it's not going to be tolerant, multicultural, blah, blah, blah. 01:07:40.620 --> 01:07:47.360 And it will, it will have a regime that I don't know if it'll be a dictatorship 01:07:47.360 --> 01:07:54.560 per se, but it will not be a friendly regime. And more so, it's also not going to control all of Syria. 01:07:54.980 --> 01:08:00.640 Like, this is not the end of the Syrian civil war. This is just Assad's gone. 01:08:01.000 --> 01:08:05.640 There are still, like, multiple factions fighting over Syria. 01:08:06.360 --> 01:08:07.340 Like, there's- All right. 01:08:07.460 --> 01:08:09.680 So it's okay. Tangent. Okay. 01:08:09.960 --> 01:08:10.780 Tangent. Yes. 01:08:10.960 --> 01:08:11.560 Okay. Yeah. 01:08:12.040 --> 01:08:13.360 Will there be a new dictator? 01:08:13.760 --> 01:08:14.240 Yes. 01:08:14.520 --> 01:08:18.880 Yes. New dictatorship in Syria. And I guess my, it depends what you call dictatorship, 01:08:19.100 --> 01:08:24.360 but it won't be- It's not going to be a democratically elected government. Yes. Yes. Agreed. 01:08:24.940 --> 01:08:30.380 Okay. From Bruce now and leaving Syria, will Netanyahu still be PM of Israel? 01:08:31.420 --> 01:08:31.980 Fuck. 01:08:32.720 --> 01:08:40.520 Because he's got that trial going on right now. The war is still going on. He's got like. 01:08:40.520 --> 01:08:42.940 You know what? I'm going to go out and say no. 01:08:43.460 --> 01:08:50.100 I'll say no as well. Like even the people who are fully supportive of everything 01:08:50.100 --> 01:08:53.520 he's done still don't really like him right now. 01:08:54.060 --> 01:08:54.160 Right. 01:08:54.900 --> 01:08:59.400 So I figure if they have an opportunity to dump him, they will. 01:08:59.740 --> 01:09:06.760 Whether or not his replacement will be more or less Netanyahu-ish, I don't know. 01:09:07.200 --> 01:09:13.080 But I think he'll be gone. We'll see. Bruce also asks, will there be a ceasefire in Gaza? Yeah. 01:09:13.840 --> 01:09:22.440 I'm going to say yes. This year, I think 2025 is finally going to happen because the one, 01:09:22.940 --> 01:09:28.440 not only is Netanyahu getting pressured on this to get a ceasefire, 01:09:28.440 --> 01:09:29.720 he's getting a lot of pressure. 01:09:30.020 --> 01:09:33.860 But by the way, Hamas right now, with all the shit that's going on, 01:09:34.320 --> 01:09:38.160 they're getting heavily pressured also as well about this because people are 01:09:38.160 --> 01:09:41.860 now actually also in Gaza are getting pissed at Hamas as well, 01:09:42.060 --> 01:09:44.280 not just Israel, about what the fuck is going on. 01:09:45.220 --> 01:09:50.280 I'll say there will be a ceasefire, but it'll be basically on Israel's terms. 01:09:50.700 --> 01:09:55.240 Israel has basically said, yeah, you'll get a ceasefire when you're all dead. 01:09:56.760 --> 01:10:02.420 Once we have killed all of Hamas and made them completely ineffectual and unable 01:10:02.420 --> 01:10:04.720 to take control again, then we'll stop. 01:10:05.020 --> 01:10:09.080 And I think that's what the situation is going to be. I think Israel will feel, 01:10:10.320 --> 01:10:12.640 first of all, they're practically there already. 01:10:13.160 --> 01:10:18.520 They have done a lot of damage. And at a certain point, they'll be able to say, 01:10:18.740 --> 01:10:21.740 okay, we've done enough. We can stop. 01:10:22.560 --> 01:10:26.860 And I think that's what's going to happen. It's not going to be like Israel 01:10:26.860 --> 01:10:31.720 and Hamas making some deal and the hostages and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 01:10:31.940 --> 01:10:36.200 It's basically going to say, it's going to be Israel saying, 01:10:36.200 --> 01:10:38.980 okay, we've beaten you enough now. We can pause. 01:10:39.660 --> 01:10:43.260 And it will be a ceasefire. It will not be a peace agreement. 01:10:45.100 --> 01:10:51.400 Okay, next up, also from Bruce, will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza? Hell no. No, no way. 01:10:52.030 --> 01:10:52.930 Wait, say that again. 01:10:53.490 --> 01:10:56.510 Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza? 01:10:56.770 --> 01:10:58.150 Oh, 2025 now. 01:10:58.830 --> 01:11:04.150 Yeah, no way. No way. There is going to be a permanent IDF position there. 01:11:04.350 --> 01:11:10.950 There is lots of pressure to have Israel sort of permanently take over northern Gaza. 01:11:11.610 --> 01:11:15.590 You know, build Jared Kushner's condos, you know, those kinds of things. 01:11:15.930 --> 01:11:19.110 They are, no, they're not leaving. 01:11:19.490 --> 01:11:22.150 They're not leaving. And even if there's a ceasefire, they're not leaving. 01:11:23.130 --> 01:11:26.890 They feel like the fact that they left whatever it was a decade and a half ago 01:11:26.890 --> 01:11:29.090 was a mistake, and they're not going to do it again. 01:11:30.270 --> 01:11:38.670 I think the best scenario Gaza has in their future right now is something like 01:11:38.670 --> 01:11:43.970 the West Bank has now, which is by no means good for the Palestinians and the West Bank. 01:11:44.130 --> 01:11:47.430 But I guess it's better than being bombed every day. 01:11:48.830 --> 01:11:52.310 That only sounds good. But that's always, you know, hey, you know, 01:11:52.410 --> 01:11:55.730 that should be put on T-shirts, you know, if you go on vacation. 01:11:56.370 --> 01:12:00.330 Better here than being bombed every day. Sounds like a good slogan for a T-shirt. 01:12:00.870 --> 01:12:05.470 And to be clear, it's not good in the West Bank. And there are Palestinians 01:12:05.470 --> 01:12:08.390 dying every day in the West Bank because of Israeli actions. 01:12:08.790 --> 01:12:12.750 But it's better than what's going on in Gaza. And I think that's the scenario 01:12:12.750 --> 01:12:16.090 you have is West Bank will be like Gaza is today. 01:12:16.690 --> 01:12:23.390 Lots of Israeli presence. Lots of Israeli control. but not quite as active a conflict. Okay. 01:12:23.550 --> 01:12:23.790 Yes. 01:12:25.030 --> 01:12:29.990 Next, for me, will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel? Not in 2025, I don't think. 01:12:30.350 --> 01:12:30.530 No. 01:12:30.770 --> 01:12:37.450 They were on the verge of it before this Gaza thing, but I think it'll happen 01:12:37.450 --> 01:12:39.590 eventually, but I don't think it's going to happen in 2025. 01:12:40.550 --> 01:12:44.190 Also me, will the war in Yemen still be continuing? 01:12:45.190 --> 01:12:45.710 Yes. 01:12:46.770 --> 01:12:53.950 Agreed, yes. also also me will any western countries normalize relationships with iran. 01:12:54.720 --> 01:12:59.360 No, no, no, not, not when the political situation is going on right now. Now. 01:12:59.720 --> 01:13:02.860 I mean, obviously there are countries that do have normal relationship with 01:13:02.860 --> 01:13:05.780 Iran already, but I don't think any Western countries are going to do that. 01:13:06.680 --> 01:13:11.500 Will a more widespread multi-country conflict breakout in the Middle East? 01:13:12.300 --> 01:13:12.740 No. 01:13:13.560 --> 01:13:17.880 I'm going to say no as well. I think the maximum point of danger for that passed 01:13:17.880 --> 01:13:22.120 a few months ago when Israel was in Lebanon and all that kind of stuff. 01:13:22.120 --> 01:13:25.200 It could have widened significantly. 01:13:26.020 --> 01:13:31.460 But with Iran making a couple attacks on Israel that were completely ineffectual 01:13:31.460 --> 01:13:40.260 and getting humiliated by that, and Israel kicking butt in Lebanon and Syria collapsing, 01:13:40.760 --> 01:13:42.620 I think, yeah, no, no. 01:13:43.140 --> 01:13:47.800 Okay. Asia from Bruce, will Trump reopen talks with North Korea? 01:13:48.640 --> 01:13:49.320 Yes. 01:13:50.240 --> 01:13:55.260 I'm going to say no, not because he does. I think he loves the guy. 01:13:55.640 --> 01:13:59.620 He does love the guy, but I think it's just not top of mind right now. 01:13:59.940 --> 01:14:03.680 Like North Carolina, not North Carolina. 01:14:04.980 --> 01:14:06.200 That's a little bit different. 01:14:07.720 --> 01:14:10.420 Yes. Trump will reopen talks with North Carolina. 01:14:13.480 --> 01:14:17.740 No, I don't think he's going to reopen it. And again, not because he wouldn't 01:14:17.740 --> 01:14:21.020 want to, but because he's going to go where the attention was. 01:14:21.180 --> 01:14:23.840 And if you remember the last time he did that in North Korea, 01:14:24.420 --> 01:14:26.540 North Korea was causing trouble all the time. 01:14:26.940 --> 01:14:31.440 But what do you think? And they've been quiet for a while. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:14:31.680 --> 01:14:36.500 You think he's going to start setting off things just because Trump is back? Yes! 01:14:37.240 --> 01:14:39.760 Okay. I'm going to say yes. 01:14:39.960 --> 01:14:42.380 I'm going to say yes. I'll say no. I'll go yes. 01:14:42.740 --> 01:14:51.740 Okay. Next up. this is from ed will the u.s break ground on an asml or equivalent 01:14:51.740 --> 01:14:55.180 high-tech semiconductor factory and i will once again admit i don't know what 01:14:55.180 --> 01:14:56.720 that is what is that yvonne do you know. 01:14:56.720 --> 01:14:57.620 I don't know. 01:14:57.620 --> 01:15:00.160 Let me look uh i don't. 01:15:00.160 --> 01:15:01.300 Know i don't. 01:15:01.300 --> 01:15:02.280 Know i don't. 01:15:02.280 --> 01:15:03.380 Know anything anymore. 01:15:04.280 --> 01:15:09.400 Asml is a dutch company and supplier oh yeah yeah they're. 01:15:09.400 --> 01:15:12.860 The people that supply the super advanced stuff that they've been banned from 01:15:12.860 --> 01:15:13.960 selling to China right now. 01:15:14.260 --> 01:15:18.520 Okay. Will the U.S. do that domestically? 01:15:19.550 --> 01:15:22.690 Now, it's just, you know, it takes a long time. 01:15:22.910 --> 01:15:25.930 No, I don't know anything about this. So I'll agree with you. No. 01:15:27.030 --> 01:15:32.310 From me, will the U.S. relationship with China improve or get worse under Trump? 01:15:32.470 --> 01:15:33.970 It's not great right now. 01:15:33.970 --> 01:15:39.010 But I think for some reason it might improve. 01:15:39.190 --> 01:15:47.990 I don't know why all of a sudden she and Trump seem more willing to talk than in the past. 01:15:49.030 --> 01:15:50.390 so i'm gonna say yes. 01:15:50.390 --> 01:15:54.790 He and trump invited him to the inauguration i think he said no but yeah but. 01:15:54.790 --> 01:15:56.910 He i mean but yeah he went that far yeah. 01:15:56.910 --> 01:16:02.990 Well and yeah he'll he'll have him over for mar-a-lago they'll make some agreements 01:16:02.990 --> 01:16:05.970 and there you go and um and we'll all know. 01:16:05.970 --> 01:16:08.110 Everything because all the phones will be intercepted, 01:16:11.670 --> 01:16:12.990 i'll do it on his you know. 01:16:12.990 --> 01:16:17.210 I i'm gonna say i'm gonna 01:16:17.210 --> 01:16:20.010 say it's gonna be a mixed bag i think it's gonna be hard to say 01:16:20.010 --> 01:16:23.770 better or worse like some things will get better like i think trump's gonna 01:16:23.770 --> 01:16:30.290 be like an asshole on trade issues but maybe on other issues will be a little 01:16:30.290 --> 01:16:39.250 bit more flexible I think Trump will be less willing to confront China on some defense issues, 01:16:39.250 --> 01:16:44.610 but will be a hardliner on trade stuff. And so I'm going to say mixed bag. 01:16:44.870 --> 01:16:48.870 Is that a valid answer or do I need to say up or down? 01:16:49.870 --> 01:16:51.170 That's a valid answer. 01:16:51.590 --> 01:16:56.110 Okay, then moving on. I think this is kind of implied by your answer, 01:16:56.250 --> 01:16:59.850 Yvonne, and probably by mine too. Will China invade Taiwan in 2021? 01:17:00.110 --> 01:17:00.870 No, no. 01:17:01.110 --> 01:17:05.490 I'll agree, no. They may eventually, but I don't think it's yet. 01:17:05.890 --> 01:17:08.490 I don't really think... 01:17:09.890 --> 01:17:10.470 No. 01:17:10.670 --> 01:17:13.230 I think they looked at Ukraine and said no. 01:17:13.750 --> 01:17:14.330 No, no. 01:17:14.770 --> 01:17:18.770 Okay. I had an if so, what would happen, but we both agree no, 01:17:18.770 --> 01:17:19.790 so I'm not going to ask that. 01:17:20.810 --> 01:17:26.350 Okay. Americas. This is from Bruce, and I'm going to say nothing on this one 01:17:26.350 --> 01:17:29.050 because I have no idea, but you and Bruce have been talking about this. 01:17:29.290 --> 01:17:34.350 So will Argentina's economy grow under, how do you say his name? Mila's reforms? 01:17:34.730 --> 01:17:35.030 Mila. 01:17:35.670 --> 01:17:39.490 Mila. Mila. So I guess GDP. 01:17:39.890 --> 01:17:44.670 Argentina GDP up or down in 2025, I guess, is the way to make this specific. 01:17:45.970 --> 01:17:48.530 That's a great question for next year. 01:17:52.390 --> 01:17:56.870 They are going to grow because they just started growing. The thing is that 01:17:56.870 --> 01:18:02.290 one of the things is that the economy really collapsed this year a lot. 01:18:02.590 --> 01:18:05.350 So you're down so much you almost have to go up. 01:18:05.590 --> 01:18:09.110 Yeah, that's basically where it's at right now. Yes. so. 01:18:09.110 --> 01:18:10.110 Up in 2025. 01:18:10.110 --> 01:18:11.670 Up in 2025 yes. 01:18:11.670 --> 01:18:18.890 Will it get back up to levels from before this guy took over. 01:18:18.890 --> 01:18:24.450 No no no it will it will recover a little bit but no not not in 2025 not with 01:18:24.450 --> 01:18:27.570 the forecast i've seen from everybody i've talked to now okay. 01:18:27.570 --> 01:18:35.250 Next up from ed will the u.s will the u.s annex panama or at least the canal. 01:18:35.810 --> 01:18:36.350 No. 01:18:37.030 --> 01:18:42.290 I will agree. No. But I, what I will say though is all of this talk from Trump 01:18:42.290 --> 01:18:45.050 is not about really taking back control of the canal, 01:18:45.050 --> 01:18:54.030 but he will try to use this to pressure Panama to give some sort of deal to 01:18:54.030 --> 01:18:56.030 make things cheaper or something. 01:18:56.150 --> 01:19:01.150 He will try to get, he will try to extract something of value for this discussion 01:19:01.150 --> 01:19:05.130 and maybe he'll get something, but no, we're not taking over the damn canal. 01:19:06.070 --> 01:19:13.070 Okay. From me, will any government in North or South America have a non peaceful change of government? 01:19:13.890 --> 01:19:19.510 Any government in North and South America. Well, we have one of those happened 01:19:19.510 --> 01:19:22.770 this year where we have, well, we had the Syria thing. 01:19:23.450 --> 01:19:25.030 Let's see. How do we go through. 01:19:25.030 --> 01:19:27.110 My Syria is not in North or South America. 01:19:27.290 --> 01:19:31.130 No, no, no, no, no, no. I know. I know what I'm like trying to think this year. 01:19:31.250 --> 01:19:36.890 Yeah. It was like, ah, you mean by cool? 01:19:38.120 --> 01:19:43.300 Well, I said non-peaceful. That generally implies coup, although I suppose invasion 01:19:43.300 --> 01:19:48.840 would also count, or you can figure out other non-violent. 01:19:48.840 --> 01:19:52.820 I'm going to say no, because it's like either somebody's going to resign or 01:19:52.820 --> 01:19:54.800 it's impeachment or something or whatever. 01:19:55.020 --> 01:19:57.240 But no, no, not those ways. 01:19:57.380 --> 01:20:01.460 Because I said non-peaceful, so it implies some sort of violent change of power. 01:20:01.540 --> 01:20:02.980 So no, no, no, no. 01:20:03.680 --> 01:20:07.200 Okay. I will agree. No. 01:20:09.260 --> 01:20:14.080 Also for me, just going through these places that Trump's been talking about, 01:20:14.320 --> 01:20:18.560 will Canada become the 51st state or otherwise join the U.S.? 01:20:18.560 --> 01:20:18.980 No. 01:20:19.800 --> 01:20:24.740 No. Obviously no. And frankly, if there ever was that kind of merger, 01:20:24.900 --> 01:20:25.960 it would not be one state. 01:20:26.120 --> 01:20:29.340 It would be each province would probably become a state. But no, no. 01:20:30.100 --> 01:20:34.940 Which would also probably shift the balance of power in the Senate in the favor 01:20:34.940 --> 01:20:37.260 of Democrats, by the way, if it ever was to happen. 01:20:38.060 --> 01:20:42.200 But no, no, it's not going to happen. Will Trump invade Mexico? 01:20:42.660 --> 01:20:44.560 They've also been talking about doing that. 01:20:45.020 --> 01:20:45.340 No. 01:20:46.580 --> 01:20:49.860 Agreed. No. Will they invade Canada? 01:20:50.240 --> 01:20:50.760 No. 01:20:51.080 --> 01:20:56.240 You know, maybe we don't need to take over all of Canada, but you know, 01:20:57.000 --> 01:20:58.660 I don't know. Maybe we want Baffin Island. 01:21:00.440 --> 01:21:00.960 No. 01:21:01.600 --> 01:21:02.920 No, no. I agree. 01:21:04.280 --> 01:21:06.020 Greenland? No. 01:21:06.020 --> 01:21:09.580 Well, that's next in the anywhere else category. Will we buy Greenland? 01:21:09.680 --> 01:21:11.560 John wants to know. No, we will not. 01:21:11.780 --> 01:21:15.800 No, we will not buy Greenland. Look, I did say, look. 01:21:16.820 --> 01:21:21.200 The next question, will Trump trade Puerto Rico for Greenland? 01:21:21.830 --> 01:21:25.230 I hope yes, but I don't think we're going to get that deal. 01:21:25.770 --> 01:21:31.210 If I can get that deal, that deal would, listen, if I, all I'm hoping is look, 01:21:31.270 --> 01:21:38.170 if, if, if I was born there and I can get Danish citizenship, I am fucking down. 01:21:38.810 --> 01:21:44.570 I am down. Okay. Let's go to make, let's make the deal. I'm all for the deal. 01:21:45.470 --> 01:21:48.810 Yeah, I agree. No, none of these are going to happen. 01:21:48.810 --> 01:21:54.710 And I, same thing as I said with Panama, all of these things are just bluster 01:21:54.710 --> 01:22:00.070 to try to open conversations where Trump wants to extract something. 01:22:00.070 --> 01:22:03.790 He doesn't actually want, he doesn't actually think any of these things are 01:22:03.790 --> 01:22:10.750 actually going to happen, but he wants to like be belligerent and be pushy in 01:22:10.750 --> 01:22:13.470 the hopes that it helps him extract something else. 01:22:13.470 --> 01:22:16.310 you know like all of this talk 01:22:16.310 --> 01:22:19.150 about canada being the 51st state isn't about canada being 01:22:19.150 --> 01:22:22.270 the 51st state it's to be an asshole 01:22:22.270 --> 01:22:25.010 to what's his name trudeau is it 01:22:25.010 --> 01:22:31.670 trudeau yeah and and and to try to get trudeau to feel bad in some way that 01:22:31.670 --> 01:22:38.310 will make him try to appease trump in some way that that that's that's what 01:22:38.310 --> 01:22:42.310 all of this is about it's not about actually thinking that he's actually going 01:22:42.310 --> 01:22:43.510 to take over any of these, 01:22:43.650 --> 01:22:47.030 whether it's purchasing or invasion or whatever. It's no. 01:22:47.790 --> 01:22:54.510 Okay. Global. Will there be any new overt country versus country wars between UN member states? 01:22:54.630 --> 01:22:59.570 So I'm excluding things like Somaliland and Ethiopia, where there's a war been 01:22:59.570 --> 01:23:04.090 going on from there, but Somaliland's not recognized fully or whatever. 01:23:04.410 --> 01:23:09.710 Or is it now? I don't know. But I'm making it UN specified states specifically. 01:23:09.710 --> 01:23:12.650 So we're not talking about separatist movements that you could debate. 01:23:13.510 --> 01:23:14.070 No. 01:23:15.270 --> 01:23:17.150 Yeah, I'm going to agree. No. 01:23:17.370 --> 01:23:22.290 And by the way, Somaliland is de facto unrecognized. So I was right there. 01:23:22.570 --> 01:23:27.190 I'll agree. No new overt country versus country wars of which Ukraine versus 01:23:27.190 --> 01:23:31.110 Russia is the one that's, you know, the big one right now. 01:23:31.530 --> 01:23:36.270 Okay. Any, will there be any, also for me, will there be any new civil wars 01:23:36.270 --> 01:23:40.570 that get enough news coverage that we talk about them on the show? I'm going to say no. 01:23:41.010 --> 01:23:41.510 No. 01:23:41.510 --> 01:23:48.130 Because there may be new civil wars in some countries that don't get a lot of attention, 01:23:48.130 --> 01:23:53.810 but I don't think there'll be new civil wars anywhere that blow up massive enough 01:23:53.810 --> 01:23:58.310 and are important enough to U.S. interests that we end up talking about them. 01:23:58.610 --> 01:24:02.490 You know, there's civil wars all over the place all the time. 01:24:02.970 --> 01:24:07.330 I guess less than there were many years ago, but no. 01:24:07.890 --> 01:24:12.750 Okay. And that's the end of the next segment. See, it was about half the length of the last one. 01:24:12.910 --> 01:24:18.430 If each one is half the length of the one before, then does the arrow eventually get to the target? 01:24:18.610 --> 01:24:20.670 I mean, that's an old philosophical thing. 01:24:21.170 --> 01:24:26.450 Okay, we'll take the next break, and we will be right back with Economy. Back after this. 01:24:29.430 --> 01:24:33.450 You're listening to this podcast. Do you like it? No! 01:24:34.410 --> 01:24:38.570 Do you want to support the show? No! Well, 01:24:38.870 --> 01:24:42.610 after you have subscribed to the show, followed us on Facebook, 01:24:42.870 --> 01:24:49.510 and told all your friends they should be listening to, what else can you do? 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The first few are non-numeric. 01:26:13.820 --> 01:26:17.880 First from Bruce. will mergers ramp up under trump. 01:26:17.880 --> 01:26:24.940 Oh yes i i think that definitely a lot of companies are salivating at the prospect 01:26:24.940 --> 01:26:30.900 of having a trump presidency because they they they believe because there'll 01:26:30.900 --> 01:26:32.840 be less antitrust action yeah. 01:26:32.840 --> 01:26:37.020 The the less anti-trust i have a specific question about antitrust later but 01:26:37.020 --> 01:26:41.240 also mergers like they've been getting lots of scrutiny and is this competitive 01:26:41.240 --> 01:26:45.500 is this not and blah blah blah and the the new administration clearly won't care. 01:26:45.500 --> 01:26:46.640 So like. 01:26:46.640 --> 01:26:53.460 Yes i'll agree mergers up uh ed wants to know will we enter a recession by year's end. 01:26:53.460 --> 01:26:56.880 Oh i don't 01:26:56.880 --> 01:27:00.100 think there will be a recession in 2025 i think 01:27:00.100 --> 01:27:03.120 that a lot of the actions that this administration is going 01:27:03.120 --> 01:27:07.460 to try to do will be stimulative and 01:27:07.460 --> 01:27:10.700 so with company balance 01:27:10.700 --> 01:27:14.440 sheets and other things being pretty healthy whatever they're 01:27:14.440 --> 01:27:17.480 going to do is going to be very stimulative to the economy 01:27:17.480 --> 01:27:22.600 and there are other economies around the world right now that are looking towards 01:27:22.600 --> 01:27:29.280 like stimulus right now china being uh one very specific example that is trying 01:27:29.280 --> 01:27:35.220 to to to to do that and that would benefit the U S and the EU as well. 01:27:35.900 --> 01:27:42.420 So I, I don't, I think the conditions are, are, are positive for there not being a recession. 01:27:42.760 --> 01:27:47.880 Are, are these things that will have short-term upward, but long-term negative 01:27:47.880 --> 01:27:52.100 consequences? Like maybe they'll trigger a recession in 2026 or 27. 01:27:52.280 --> 01:27:53.400 The things that, I mean. 01:27:53.400 --> 01:27:54.340 We're not making predictions. 01:27:54.940 --> 01:28:00.380 Well, look, the thing is that any time that you get like a lot of deregulation, 01:28:00.380 --> 01:28:03.860 and less scrutiny of financial industry. 01:28:03.860 --> 01:28:06.380 You get a short-term spike that eventually crashes. 01:28:06.880 --> 01:28:16.080 That may not guarantee, but that does create the openings for these kind of significant, like, 01:28:16.770 --> 01:28:21.510 issues that we've seen in decades past. Like we had the SNL crisis under the 01:28:21.510 --> 01:28:25.470 Reagan administration or, or like, you know, the banking crisis that we had 01:28:25.470 --> 01:28:28.210 from the HW administration and yet, 01:28:28.390 --> 01:28:33.370 you know, the lack of oversight of wall street leverage that we had because of reduced regulation. 01:28:33.370 --> 01:28:39.630 So you, this is the type of shit that really, you know, incentivizes that kind of shit. 01:28:39.630 --> 01:28:46.850 So I won't hold you to any predictions past 2025, but basically you're saying we'll get a nice, 01:28:47.270 --> 01:28:52.550 healthy, positive economic spike for the first few years, which will crash just 01:28:52.550 --> 01:28:56.710 in time for the next Democratic president to clean up the mess. 01:28:57.110 --> 01:28:59.750 Basically, that's usually the way that these guys will operate. 01:29:01.030 --> 01:29:08.310 Okay. Next up on antitrust, specifically, will the efforts that have already 01:29:08.310 --> 01:29:12.890 started and are in progress under Biden, like there are a number of lawsuits 01:29:12.890 --> 01:29:15.570 going on and things like that, will they all be dropped? 01:29:16.130 --> 01:29:19.350 I don't think all of them will be dropped because there is one thing. 01:29:19.710 --> 01:29:24.510 This administration on one side also has a little bit of a war with the tech 01:29:24.510 --> 01:29:27.710 people, and a lot of those actions are against tech companies. 01:29:27.730 --> 01:29:31.890 So they'll probably be very happy and letting the tech companies get their... 01:29:34.630 --> 01:29:39.630 get the Justice Department to keep, you know, being under their skin. 01:29:40.490 --> 01:29:45.170 So your answer, because there are a bunch of, and I don't have an inventory 01:29:45.170 --> 01:29:51.670 of them, but there are a bunch of antitrust efforts from the DOJ that are in progress right now. 01:29:51.830 --> 01:29:56.650 Your prediction is some of them, the Trump administration will cancel and some 01:29:56.650 --> 01:29:57.570 of them they'll keep going? 01:29:57.810 --> 01:30:04.110 Yes, correct. They're not all going by the wayside. I think that the tech stuff, 01:30:04.210 --> 01:30:09.490 they're going to want to needle the tech companies, because they've been out of history of that. 01:30:09.690 --> 01:30:14.210 But I'll give you an example of one industry that has had terrible time of getting 01:30:14.210 --> 01:30:17.210 mergers to get approved, that I think that they are salivating. 01:30:17.310 --> 01:30:21.390 I know I've heard the executives already say they're salivating at the prospect 01:30:21.390 --> 01:30:24.110 of a Trump admin, the airlines. 01:30:24.770 --> 01:30:27.870 The airlines have been blocked on a whole bunch of mergers and a whole bunch 01:30:27.870 --> 01:30:33.730 of things and competitive reasons like Spirited JetBlue, JetBlue with American 01:30:33.730 --> 01:30:35.770 Airlines, just a whole bunch of them. 01:30:35.950 --> 01:30:40.190 They are like right now salivating at the prospect of being able to get these 01:30:40.190 --> 01:30:43.810 mergers to go through because they don't think the Trump administration is going to stop any of them. 01:30:44.310 --> 01:30:49.970 Okay. Yeah. No, I will agree with you on the mixed result here and as for similar 01:30:49.970 --> 01:30:54.490 reasons, but basically fundamentally at the core level, just because Donald 01:30:54.490 --> 01:30:56.890 Trump is transactional on everything. 01:30:57.210 --> 01:31:04.070 He will make the decision on whether or not to release companies who are currently 01:31:04.070 --> 01:31:08.810 engaged in these battles with the DOJ based on what he personally can get out of it. 01:31:08.990 --> 01:31:11.970 And some of them, he will get things out of some of them, he will not. 01:31:12.110 --> 01:31:13.850 And that's how he'll make the calls. 01:31:14.090 --> 01:31:16.070 And so, So yes, mixed bag. 01:31:16.550 --> 01:31:22.110 Okay, next up, also for me, what will happen with all of Trump's tariff threats? 01:31:23.860 --> 01:31:27.140 Look, it'll be a lot of like what happened the first time around. 01:31:27.720 --> 01:31:31.820 These are all transactional things. And by the way, I've already heard, 01:31:32.080 --> 01:31:35.700 you know, one thing I already heard, all the China tariffs, 01:31:36.440 --> 01:31:40.240 Trump said what I heard, I can't remember if Trump said it, or I heard it say, 01:31:40.500 --> 01:31:45.800 oh, but, but Apple, Apple's going to get, they're going to be exempt. 01:31:45.800 --> 01:31:56.000 so once you start like what's that you know whoever he has in his favor or wants 01:31:56.000 --> 01:31:58.540 to be the champion he's going to, 01:31:59.660 --> 01:32:02.180 these tariffs will be like Swiss cheese it's. 01:32:02.180 --> 01:32:04.240 The same transactional stuff it's like. 01:32:04.240 --> 01:32:09.420 Who is giving him what is he getting out of it there were a ton of exemptions 01:32:09.420 --> 01:32:14.420 that got through the last time and I remember that when I was I was working at Kodak, 01:32:14.980 --> 01:32:17.960 specifically the tariffs targeted a specific 01:32:17.960 --> 01:32:21.100 type of aluminum that that that kodak 01:32:21.100 --> 01:32:24.000 needed to import from china they couldn't really procure from anywhere 01:32:24.000 --> 01:32:27.620 else there was just no alternate sourcing and 01:32:27.620 --> 01:32:33.280 we didn't have the juice with the trump administration really to get anything 01:32:33.280 --> 01:32:38.160 like done and they never lifted that tariff i know that you know all of a sudden 01:32:38.160 --> 01:32:42.380 later that stupid deal came out with peter Navarro announced like that loan 01:32:42.380 --> 01:32:45.540 that made the stock like soar and crash and everybody went crazy. 01:32:45.540 --> 01:32:49.360 It's like the hell we were doing or whatever. But that was... 01:32:50.400 --> 01:32:55.940 You know what? The thing is that I looked at the way that was worked through. 01:32:56.280 --> 01:32:59.500 It wasn't with juice with the Trump administration. It's more the state of New 01:32:59.500 --> 01:33:02.080 York had helped and empire. 01:33:02.960 --> 01:33:09.940 There is this empire economic whatever development agency, blah, blah, blah. 01:33:10.060 --> 01:33:12.620 And all these people, they were the ones that really had the juice. 01:33:12.620 --> 01:33:15.760 But it wasn't because the company had juice with the Trump administration. 01:33:16.020 --> 01:33:19.360 If they did, they would. The first thing they want to lift that tariff and we 01:33:19.360 --> 01:33:21.100 didn't have the juice, but other companies did. 01:33:21.220 --> 01:33:25.240 And they got if you look at the exemption applications, if you were really, 01:33:25.240 --> 01:33:31.080 you know, in, you know, attached to the hip with with the with with Trump and 01:33:31.080 --> 01:33:33.380 MAGA, you got those. No problem. 01:33:33.700 --> 01:33:36.840 You got your exemptions. And I expect nothing different this time. 01:33:36.840 --> 01:33:43.060 So all over the place on an individual thing by individual thing basis, 01:33:43.700 --> 01:33:49.340 not any, we won't actually get these global, like we're putting 20% tariff on the entire world. 01:33:49.340 --> 01:33:53.420 Let me put it this way. Headline right now on Bloomberg, Trump's tariff threats 01:33:53.420 --> 01:33:55.940 are setting off a global supply chain freak out. 01:33:57.620 --> 01:34:00.480 Okay. Well, let me ask. 01:34:00.500 --> 01:34:03.180 Always words that you want to hear, you know. 01:34:04.040 --> 01:34:08.040 Yeah. So I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll first of all agree. It's all going to be transactional. 01:34:08.220 --> 01:34:10.740 It's going to be tons of exemptions, all that stuff. I agree with you fully. 01:34:11.400 --> 01:34:18.060 Will, will enough happen with increased tariffs so that the average American 01:34:18.060 --> 01:34:20.480 consumer notices a difference on anything? 01:34:21.060 --> 01:34:26.120 No, no, no. Here's a note that you said notice. 01:34:26.660 --> 01:34:29.680 Yeah. Problem is that notice people. 01:34:30.400 --> 01:34:30.580 Yes. 01:34:30.720 --> 01:34:31.260 Yeah. 01:34:32.500 --> 01:34:33.420 That's the problem. 01:34:33.780 --> 01:34:37.060 Like, even if there's a price increase on something, they won't necessarily 01:34:37.060 --> 01:34:38.720 tie it back to the tariffs. 01:34:38.740 --> 01:34:42.520 They notice gas. They notice, like, their burgers. 01:34:43.380 --> 01:34:50.120 They notice, like, you know, I guess, and whatever the right-wing media, 01:34:50.140 --> 01:34:51.460 like, you know, tells them. 01:34:51.520 --> 01:34:54.240 And Apple will get an exemption, so iPhones will cost the same. 01:34:54.280 --> 01:34:57.680 So iPhones will cost the same. Right. Oh, you know. 01:34:57.680 --> 01:35:04.920 So, will there be any significant new manufacturing in the U.S. 01:35:05.080 --> 01:35:06.720 caused by tariffs elsewhere? 01:35:07.020 --> 01:35:10.460 Like, that's the whole theoretic point of these things, right? 01:35:11.680 --> 01:35:18.860 Look, there's already been a big supply chain reallocation that had begun in 01:35:18.860 --> 01:35:26.380 years past, coming from not just the tariffs, but the pandemic and the Inflation Reduction Act. 01:35:26.380 --> 01:35:29.300 I you know that that has been 01:35:29.300 --> 01:35:36.940 happening and so I don't really think that there is anything significant that 01:35:36.940 --> 01:35:45.820 the administration could do that will move a something you know that has any 01:35:45.820 --> 01:35:47.760 significant effect okay. 01:35:47.760 --> 01:35:51.560 I'll just agree with you because I don't know enough to say anything else. 01:35:51.740 --> 01:35:53.640 Okay. That's it for the non-numeric stuff. 01:35:54.360 --> 01:35:56.800 Numeric ones, we have a bunch of requests. 01:35:57.840 --> 01:36:01.820 Now, in some years in the past, I have given specific ranges. 01:36:02.980 --> 01:36:06.420 I have not done any of that prep this year. I didn't last year either. 01:36:06.580 --> 01:36:08.480 Last year, I shifted to just up or down. 01:36:09.020 --> 01:36:14.020 Just up or down. So, Yvonne, on these, feel free to be as specific as you want 01:36:14.020 --> 01:36:16.260 or join me in just up or down. 01:36:16.580 --> 01:36:22.680 So Bruce asks for inflation, presumably US inflation he's asking about. I will say it will be up. 01:36:23.540 --> 01:36:25.340 I will say it will be up. 01:36:26.040 --> 01:36:28.540 Okay. Unemployment. 01:36:29.160 --> 01:36:29.720 Up. 01:36:30.140 --> 01:36:36.100 I will agree. Up. Now, John specifically, both of those were Bruce. 01:36:36.280 --> 01:36:41.700 John wants to know what Apple's stock price will be on December 1st, 2025. 01:36:42.720 --> 01:36:43.080 Up. 01:36:43.700 --> 01:36:47.620 Yeah, I'm not giving a number either. I will say up year over year. 01:36:47.620 --> 01:36:51.820 I like your new plan. I like this up or down. Go up. Yes. 01:36:53.340 --> 01:37:01.740 Bruce wants to know the dow up up up bruce wants to know bitcoin up i'm gonna 01:37:01.740 --> 01:37:03.220 go down with bitcoin this you. 01:37:03.220 --> 01:37:04.360 Go down oh. 01:37:04.360 --> 01:37:08.220 Like it had a good run on 01:37:08.220 --> 01:37:11.180 the news that trump won i think 01:37:11.180 --> 01:37:14.100 most of the people will take the profits 01:37:14.100 --> 01:37:17.200 out of that and it's gonna it's gonna 01:37:17.200 --> 01:37:21.200 have another down cycle uh before it goes up again you know i could be wrong 01:37:21.200 --> 01:37:29.240 you know yeah i'm going on up you're going on up yep okay now for me also an 01:37:29.240 --> 01:37:35.560 up or down kind of thing a numeric thing price of eggs up up, 01:37:38.880 --> 01:37:40.980 price of oil down. 01:37:40.980 --> 01:37:42.660 You know why. 01:37:42.660 --> 01:37:46.980 I do do we need to specify which price of oil because there are several brent uh. 01:37:46.980 --> 01:37:49.780 We'll use uh we'll use texas intermediate. 01:37:49.780 --> 01:37:54.280 Okay all right texas intermediate okay fine yeah and we'll go down because because 01:37:54.280 --> 01:37:57.660 it's all supply and demand and i think that whatever he's. 01:37:57.660 --> 01:37:58.560 Going to do is to increase. 01:37:58.560 --> 01:38:02.780 Supply so therefore price will go down but 01:38:02.780 --> 01:38:06.080 but at the same time he's like going 01:38:06.080 --> 01:38:12.180 to be anti-electrification and pro-fossil fuel and stuff so maybe he'd increase 01:38:12.180 --> 01:38:17.840 demand as well by like but but but you know take out the subsidies for the electric 01:38:17.840 --> 01:38:25.680 cars and blah blah blah and no more yeah it's the same time because they kill birds but at. 01:38:25.680 --> 01:38:28.660 The same time the chinese are ramping up electric car production. 01:38:28.660 --> 01:38:29.720 Like crazy. 01:38:29.720 --> 01:38:33.480 So it doesn't really matter what the fuck he decides to do with it it's the 01:38:33.480 --> 01:38:37.940 rest of the world and so i i say supply up with so many electric cars being 01:38:37.940 --> 01:38:40.360 pumped out like crazy it's going to go down. 01:38:42.720 --> 01:38:47.500 I'll say up just to be contrarian to you Okay Your argument sounds reasonable 01:38:47.500 --> 01:38:51.040 though GDP growth in the U.S. 01:38:51.920 --> 01:38:55.720 I think it will be up. That's what's going to cause the inflation and the other things. 01:38:56.040 --> 01:38:56.900 Just to be clear. 01:38:57.040 --> 01:38:58.840 The unemployment rate, by the way. 01:38:59.060 --> 01:39:03.520 Wait, wait, wait. The unemployment rate. Hold on. I just want to be clear mathematically. 01:39:04.200 --> 01:39:09.020 We're talking about an increase in the rate of growth, not an increase in GDP. 01:39:09.360 --> 01:39:13.840 Correct. We're talking that the GDP growth rate, if this year ends at 3%, 01:39:13.840 --> 01:39:16.840 say a number, next year will be 3.5. 01:39:17.060 --> 01:39:19.640 And I think that's why I think inflation will be up. 01:39:19.640 --> 01:39:22.300 Are we talking full year, Q3? what are we talking about? 01:39:22.820 --> 01:39:25.200 The full year. Whatever we can measure. 01:39:25.200 --> 01:39:28.640 Whatever the most recent number we can get a hands-on in January. 01:39:29.200 --> 01:39:34.520 Right. And so I think that, and that's what's going to push some more inflation. 01:39:34.760 --> 01:39:38.740 And by the way, unemployment, it's not that maybe there'll be less people employed, 01:39:38.900 --> 01:39:42.080 but participation rates go up and participation rates go up. 01:39:42.200 --> 01:39:43.760 More people are looking for work. 01:39:44.180 --> 01:39:49.620 The workforce grows. It does grow the unemployment as well. So those are my 01:39:49.620 --> 01:39:51.460 arguments in 2025 with that stuff. 01:39:52.160 --> 01:39:56.160 Okay, and that's it for economy. So we're going to take another break and come 01:39:56.160 --> 01:39:59.520 back for technology. See, that was faster. It wasn't quite half, but close. 01:40:00.000 --> 01:40:05.540 Okay, here, next break, and then we'll do the technology. Back after this. 01:40:06.160 --> 01:40:18.340 Do, do, do. This podcast is sponsored by AlexMzilla.com. Alex Emsla is great. 01:40:18.620 --> 01:40:24.220 It's on YouTube and it has lots of fun videos. 01:40:25.610 --> 01:40:29.090 Alex Emsola is awesome and great. 01:40:29.470 --> 01:40:34.550 I love his videos, and they are obviously better than Curmudgeon's Corner. 01:40:34.970 --> 01:40:39.130 While they're funnier, they're more interesting. And frankly, 01:40:39.390 --> 01:40:44.430 he seems at least a little smarter than either of the hosts of Curmudgeon's Corner. 01:40:44.870 --> 01:40:54.610 Honestly, it's ridiculous how endlessly talented and phenomenal Alex Emsola is. 01:40:55.350 --> 01:41:06.430 That's how great his YouTube channel is. A-L-E-X-M-X-E-L-A dot com. 01:41:06.850 --> 01:41:09.130 Yes. Do, do, do. 01:41:10.190 --> 01:41:14.330 Okay, here we are again, and it's time for technology. And nice, 01:41:14.330 --> 01:41:17.110 like, segue from what we were talking about before. 01:41:17.450 --> 01:41:21.330 First question in the energy section here is from Ed. 01:41:21.330 --> 01:41:26.170 what percentage of new vehicles will be electric or hybrid by the end of new 01:41:26.170 --> 01:41:30.670 by the end of the year i presume he means new sales or something like that as 01:41:30.670 --> 01:41:35.710 opposed to percentage on the road or manufactured or whatever new sales. 01:41:35.710 --> 01:41:40.350 I don't even know what number now he doesn't say you. 01:41:40.350 --> 01:41:41.150 Can call it us. 01:41:41.150 --> 01:41:46.290 Whatever you prefer you pick pick us. 01:41:46.290 --> 01:41:47.110 Whatever you think. 01:41:47.110 --> 01:41:51.390 Uh i'm gonna look up the chart. 01:41:51.390 --> 01:41:56.970 I will i will say it will be up well no even like if they're taking away subsidies 01:41:56.970 --> 01:42:00.450 and stuff it might be down year over year percentage of new sales. 01:42:00.450 --> 01:42:06.230 By the way in in globally okay globally yeah it's amazing number right i realized 01:42:06.230 --> 01:42:12.670 wow uh electric vehicles uh accounted for 18 of all car sales globally in 2023 01:42:12.670 --> 01:42:18.750 up from 4 in 2020 so it's it's this is the reason why i was about that's 2023. 01:42:18.750 --> 01:42:20.390 2024 is higher and i just. 01:42:20.390 --> 01:42:21.390 Saw a headline i think. 01:42:21.390 --> 01:42:23.070 In china it's approaching 50. 01:42:23.070 --> 01:42:25.910 Yes yes yes that's why i'm saying 01:42:25.910 --> 01:42:28.790 that this whole thing you know it doesn't really matter what the 01:42:28.790 --> 01:42:31.890 you know what what the hell he's trying to do you can't 01:42:31.890 --> 01:42:35.310 you know you can't unscrew the this so uh 01:42:35.310 --> 01:42:41.370 let's see uh we are 01:42:41.370 --> 01:42:46.110 10 29 13.2 saying 01:42:46.110 --> 01:42:50.110 that this flattened well 01:42:50.110 --> 01:42:54.470 can i say just that the market share that the global percentage will be up from 01:42:54.470 --> 01:42:58.750 this number that we've got here which is the electric vehicle markets market 01:42:58.750 --> 01:43:03.990 share worldwide 2014 we've only got them up to 2023 we We don't have good 2024 01:43:03.990 --> 01:43:07.650 data for the prediction right now. 01:43:07.870 --> 01:43:13.130 But we will have a tough call, tough to predict. 01:43:13.270 --> 01:43:16.410 We don't have a good 2024 read right now. 01:43:18.020 --> 01:43:20.380 go off on uh. 01:43:20.380 --> 01:43:24.140 So let's make this more narrow let's 01:43:24.140 --> 01:43:32.760 talk us only and let's talk i don't know okay us you us only do we think do 01:43:32.760 --> 01:43:38.900 we think the trump administration will have a negative effect on electric and 01:43:38.900 --> 01:43:41.800 hybrid sales over the course of 2025, 01:43:45.840 --> 01:43:49.080 I mean, on the one hand, he's said all kinds of things about not, 01:43:49.080 --> 01:43:53.580 not liking alternative energy energies and being pro fossil fuel. 01:43:53.760 --> 01:43:58.760 On the other hand, presumably, you know, he wants to help his best friend, Elon with Tesla. 01:43:59.580 --> 01:44:01.220 Right. That's the thing, right? 01:44:02.220 --> 01:44:06.240 Although we've heard like Elon's been talking about, he doesn't want the subsidy 01:44:06.240 --> 01:44:08.020 anymore. He wants to get rid of it himself. 01:44:08.560 --> 01:44:11.420 Even though you've said multiple times on here, it's going to cost him money. 01:44:11.800 --> 01:44:15.600 I've said it's it's a fact it's not like you know it's not. 01:44:18.140 --> 01:44:23.900 I'm gonna say it will have a negative effect and electric and and hybrid sales 01:44:23.900 --> 01:44:26.220 will go down as a percentage they also. 01:44:26.220 --> 01:44:28.720 Will probably be closer to flat because of. 01:44:28.720 --> 01:44:30.820 Flat okay yeah yeah they'll. 01:44:30.820 --> 01:44:33.380 Be flat because because of the policy changes. 01:44:33.380 --> 01:44:40.000 As a percentage as a percentage yes correct yeah i mean right now i'll go ahead 01:44:40.000 --> 01:44:44.260 and say actually down like and and what what's flat to you plus or minus what 01:44:44.260 --> 01:44:46.660 five percent ten percent i. 01:44:46.660 --> 01:44:50.760 Mean i'm gonna say that the the share of the total sales is gonna be plus minus one percent. 01:44:50.760 --> 01:44:53.860 Plus or minus one percent from where it is now okay i 01:44:53.860 --> 01:44:57.040 will say it will be down more than one percent year 01:44:57.040 --> 01:45:00.580 over year with whatever the best numbers we can find when 01:45:00.580 --> 01:45:04.220 we evaluate this because i'm not sure when that will be but because 01:45:04.220 --> 01:45:07.200 you're having trouble finding recent numbers right yeah so yeah 01:45:07.200 --> 01:45:10.400 yeah okay did it 01:45:10.400 --> 01:45:13.360 uh ed's next question is 01:45:13.360 --> 01:45:18.160 sort of the flip side of that will gasoline sales in the u.s decrease by how 01:45:18.160 --> 01:45:23.260 much i presume if we're talking about percentage on electric this only makes 01:45:23.260 --> 01:45:28.780 sense as a separate question if he's talking absolute numbers okay i don't know 01:45:28.780 --> 01:45:31.160 okay there is data on that hold. 01:45:31.160 --> 01:45:33.040 On okay, 01:45:37.620 --> 01:45:43.900 kick up i got a hiccup okay monthly gasoline consumption the u.s 2022 20 oh you're actually. 01:45:43.900 --> 01:45:47.120 Interpreting as gasoline itself not gasoline cars will. 01:45:47.120 --> 01:45:51.180 Yeah yeah no so let's look at gas consumption which i think okay is will it 01:45:51.180 --> 01:45:58.280 go down in 2025 well that makes sense the answer is 2025 from 2024 i'm gonna 01:45:58.280 --> 01:46:01.800 say the answer is yes it's been going down like literally like almost. 01:46:03.250 --> 01:46:06.670 It went down during the pandemic, then back up a little bit. 01:46:06.750 --> 01:46:11.010 It backed up, but then it's been, let's see. 01:46:11.330 --> 01:46:16.410 We got here, this is barrels per day. 01:46:17.630 --> 01:46:25.870 It is 9.2926. I'm comparing December 24, 24, 8.62. 01:46:26.790 --> 01:46:29.650 It's been about flat this year to last year. 01:46:30.050 --> 01:46:31.310 But you're going to stay down? 01:46:31.310 --> 01:46:37.530 Yeah it it i think it's because the economy's growing it'll probably just remain 01:46:37.530 --> 01:46:41.110 flat it won't go down it's what we've had is yeah you're. 01:46:41.110 --> 01:46:43.270 Once again plus or minus one percent for flat. 01:46:43.270 --> 01:46:48.510 Yeah yeah because it's been basically that way between 2023 and 2024 as well. 01:46:50.510 --> 01:46:54.830 This time i'll say up that'll be consistent with my down for the other one. 01:46:54.830 --> 01:46:56.270 But okay yeah. 01:46:56.270 --> 01:47:01.970 Because yeah i'll say i'll say up okay from me what will happen with tesla as 01:47:01.970 --> 01:47:07.670 a company over 2025 doing well doing badly like what. 01:47:07.670 --> 01:47:11.130 You've got a number of factors they're gonna got the general election. 01:47:11.130 --> 01:47:13.210 You've got the general electro car. 01:47:13.210 --> 01:47:16.870 Situation you've got the elon situation they have created for themselves is 01:47:16.870 --> 01:47:20.630 for them to be doing worse this year than that next year than this year i mean 01:47:20.630 --> 01:47:24.090 there is no scenario under which he is, 01:47:26.340 --> 01:47:27.240 there are, 01:47:29.260 --> 01:47:36.000 so many things that he has done to spite himself in this where cars are getting 01:47:36.000 --> 01:47:39.000 old, models are getting old, which is a problem. 01:47:39.340 --> 01:47:45.800 Okay, versus competition that's unleashing a number of new and just totally new models. 01:47:46.140 --> 01:47:51.260 And so that's a problem. And then he's got a situation where he's pissed off so many fucking people. 01:47:51.400 --> 01:47:53.720 They don't want to buy the fucking cars in the first place just because he's 01:47:53.720 --> 01:47:55.640 a guy who fucking owns the company. 01:47:55.740 --> 01:47:58.980 just had a conversation about this yesterday because he's an asshole yeah it's 01:47:58.980 --> 01:48:02.180 just ridiculous people are like yeah i would love to buy the car but he isn't 01:48:02.180 --> 01:48:08.660 it's run by an asshole it's just so stupid and look if he fucking ends the subsidy 01:48:08.660 --> 01:48:12.200 he is the number one beneficiary of this bar none, 01:48:13.120 --> 01:48:16.020 and so they're going to be doing worse i mean they're going to have to raise 01:48:16.020 --> 01:48:17.900 prices in order are you going to just judge that. 01:48:17.900 --> 01:48:21.240 Are you just going to judge that by the stock price stock price down year over 01:48:21.240 --> 01:48:24.360 year or do you have another way to judge it that you want to. 01:48:25.000 --> 01:48:26.500 Well, just on revenue and profits. 01:48:26.980 --> 01:48:31.540 Okay. So you're saying revenue down, profits down, stock price down all three. 01:48:31.700 --> 01:48:34.600 I don't know. I can't say about the stock price because you know what? 01:48:34.720 --> 01:48:37.300 They've done like shit this year. The stock is up. 01:48:37.700 --> 01:48:40.420 Okay. So revenue and profits down. 01:48:40.640 --> 01:48:40.980 Yeah. 01:48:41.460 --> 01:48:46.240 Okay. I'll go ahead and do the stock version. I'll say stock down. 01:48:46.600 --> 01:48:49.240 Like you can only surf on that kind of thing so long. 01:48:49.700 --> 01:48:55.120 Oh yeah. Yeah, I'll add that to the social media section, actually. 01:48:57.020 --> 01:49:00.880 Okay, this relates to what we just said. Will any of the incentives for energy 01:49:00.880 --> 01:49:02.820 transition passed under Biden be reversed? 01:49:03.120 --> 01:49:09.360 So not just the car subsidy, but all of the other stuff that was in that package. 01:49:10.080 --> 01:49:16.600 I'm not sure. You know what? I'm going to say no. I'm going to tell you why. 01:49:17.480 --> 01:49:20.580 Okay. because they're making so many red districts 01:49:20.580 --> 01:49:23.280 got money off of this shit and they're making jobs out of 01:49:23.280 --> 01:49:26.400 them that i think a whole bunch of the congressmen are going to be they're going 01:49:26.400 --> 01:49:29.560 to go this is going to be part of they're going to do this they're going to 01:49:29.560 --> 01:49:35.260 be doing a part of the tax they'll take credit for it yes so in the end they'll 01:49:35.260 --> 01:49:39.600 just be like now that it's a don't make it into their idea and then whatever 01:49:39.600 --> 01:49:41.180 then you know it's just don't. 01:49:41.180 --> 01:49:44.540 It's just like all these republican congress people going around the country 01:49:44.540 --> 01:49:48.140 for the ribbon cuttings for projects that they voted against. 01:49:49.600 --> 01:49:57.080 Yes, the Trump administration will absolutely take credit for all of that energy 01:49:57.080 --> 01:50:00.220 transition stuff that the Biden administration does. 01:50:00.420 --> 01:50:02.500 And for that matter, all the infrastructure stuff too. 01:50:02.640 --> 01:50:03.780 All the infrastructure stuff. 01:50:03.960 --> 01:50:08.300 Buttigieg was on TV talking about that the other day where somebody asked him, 01:50:08.400 --> 01:50:11.340 is the Trump administration going to take credit for the things you've done? 01:50:11.420 --> 01:50:12.680 And he's like, absolutely they will. 01:50:12.920 --> 01:50:16.040 We've lined up projects going out years. 01:50:17.140 --> 01:50:19.960 due to what we've done, and of course they're going to take credit for it. 01:50:20.020 --> 01:50:21.180 Yes, 100%. 01:50:21.760 --> 01:50:22.140 Yeah. 01:50:22.890 --> 01:50:31.550 Okay, next up, will the global amount of carbon burned annually go down year 01:50:31.550 --> 01:50:34.770 over year rather than up year over year? This is for me. 01:50:35.170 --> 01:50:36.810 It's not going down next year. 01:50:37.130 --> 01:50:40.290 It's not going down next year. We're nowhere close. No. 01:50:40.550 --> 01:50:43.670 We need it to be going down, but it's not going down. 01:50:43.850 --> 01:50:49.450 It's not going down. We're still fighting to make the rate of increase start going down. 01:50:49.730 --> 01:50:52.750 We're not at going down. now. 01:50:52.750 --> 01:50:56.470 I mean the rate of increase has started going down but it's not enough. 01:50:56.470 --> 01:50:59.170 Yeah it started we're fighting to do 01:50:59.170 --> 01:51:01.850 that it's fighting to make it go down a little bit the 01:51:01.850 --> 01:51:06.550 rate we're fighting to decrease the rate of increase we are not even remotely 01:51:06.550 --> 01:51:12.450 close to having the underlying number actually go down you know and along the 01:51:12.450 --> 01:51:16.530 same lines will global co2 levels continue to increase of course those are directly 01:51:16.530 --> 01:51:20.170 tied to each other so yes and there's even a delay there. 01:51:20.350 --> 01:51:26.350 Like if we stopped all burning of carbon tomorrow, the global CO2 levels would 01:51:26.350 --> 01:51:27.950 continue to increase for a number of years. 01:51:28.450 --> 01:51:32.930 IEA basically said emissions grew in 2023, but clean energy is limiting the 01:51:32.930 --> 01:51:35.610 growth, limiting the growth. That's, that's where we're at. 01:51:35.690 --> 01:51:41.430 Right. Yeah. Yeah. We're, we're slowing down growth, but we are not declining 01:51:41.430 --> 01:51:43.470 and we need to be declining. 01:51:43.790 --> 01:51:49.890 We're not there yet okay and this ties to the number you just pulled out will 01:51:49.890 --> 01:51:56.310 the global percentage of non-carbon energy use continue to increase i think yes. 01:51:56.310 --> 01:51:59.150 It's it's it's it's soaring yes. 01:51:59.150 --> 01:52:05.170 Yes continues so yeah yeah the key there is it's it's increasing as a percentage 01:52:05.170 --> 01:52:13.170 but the total is also increasing which is why you see the carbon levels still increasing Okay. 01:52:13.310 --> 01:52:15.470 Will we see an increase in nuclear as part of that? 01:52:16.170 --> 01:52:16.390 Yes. 01:52:16.890 --> 01:52:21.730 I'll agree. Yes. So just to be clear, I agreed on the last couple. Okay. 01:52:22.690 --> 01:52:29.130 Transportation from Bruce. Will a starship or super heavy get successfully reused 01:52:29.130 --> 01:52:30.230 at some point in the year? 01:52:31.110 --> 01:52:32.910 No, not in 2025. 01:52:33.750 --> 01:52:41.830 I will agree. Any other major developments in human space travel in 2025? 01:52:42.590 --> 01:52:44.770 I'm going to say no. 01:52:45.690 --> 01:52:48.990 We're pretty, there are some things on the horizon. 01:52:49.010 --> 01:52:52.690 We've got the new moon mission, but it's not going to happen in 2025. 01:52:52.690 --> 01:52:56.950 We've got a new space station planned, but it's not going to happen in 2025. 01:52:57.610 --> 01:53:02.450 you know are there going to be incremental improvements to these rockets as 01:53:02.450 --> 01:53:06.690 spacex keeps working on them yeah but i'm not going to call that major because 01:53:06.690 --> 01:53:10.290 we're not going to have the the next big milestone in 2025 it's. 01:53:10.290 --> 01:53:11.470 Just as a as a day. 01:53:11.470 --> 01:53:14.930 And i guess negative things could be could be major developments too i'm not 01:53:14.930 --> 01:53:17.470 going to predict one of those on the u.s. 01:53:17.470 --> 01:53:20.510 Co2 emissions front i found what u.s. 01:53:20.510 --> 01:53:23.070 Specifically not global u.s. 01:53:23.070 --> 01:53:26.570 Global emissions to co2 have dropped the wait u.s. 01:53:26.570 --> 01:53:27.470 Or global u.s. 01:53:27.470 --> 01:53:33.230 U.s u.s at the point of u.s globally never growing but u.s global co2 emissions 01:53:33.230 --> 01:53:39.270 have dropped about what's this uh it's close to like close to when you mean u.s. 01:53:39.270 --> 01:53:43.510 2002 u.s total you keep saying u.s global no u.s. 01:53:43.510 --> 01:53:51.190 Total total emissions have two emissions have gone down almost 20 since 2010 01:53:51.190 --> 01:53:56.050 right but the problem is that others have been growing so quickly that it's 01:53:56.050 --> 01:54:01.090 you know yeah it doesn't matter even though we've actually shrunk. 01:54:01.090 --> 01:54:05.930 Well i wouldn't say it doesn't matter it's one of the things that helps reduce the rate of growth. 01:54:05.930 --> 01:54:09.950 But again but we are also we need we need the whole world to be going down right 01:54:09.950 --> 01:54:12.730 yeah exactly so yeah okay. 01:54:12.730 --> 01:54:17.950 Next up any major new milestones and self-driving technology from sam for. 01:54:17.950 --> 01:54:20.710 Me no you're kidding well. 01:54:20.710 --> 01:54:25.670 Let let let me say like yeah we we've had the elon stuff but like we've had 01:54:25.670 --> 01:54:26.870 a significant additional. 01:54:26.870 --> 01:54:30.010 Expansion of the robo taxes and stuff yeah yeah 01:54:30.010 --> 01:54:35.430 yeah from like those folks yeah yeah yeah but that's not that's not an advancement 01:54:35.430 --> 01:54:38.850 that that technology we already know works we know how it works and maybe putting 01:54:38.850 --> 01:54:44.490 it in more cities but it works the way it works okay which is you know it has 01:54:44.490 --> 01:54:48.450 a certain number of limitations it's not you know it really has better. 01:54:48.450 --> 01:54:50.450 Than tesla's way of doing it but yeah. 01:54:50.450 --> 01:54:53.190 It it's it's way better than tesla's way of 01:54:53.190 --> 01:54:56.170 doing it in the sense that where it's going to where 01:54:56.170 --> 01:54:59.230 it is geofenced to go it knows 01:54:59.230 --> 01:55:05.850 how to do it okay very well that that's the main thing the reality is that but 01:55:05.850 --> 01:55:10.250 at the same time it it's it's not that you could just drop it anywhere that 01:55:10.250 --> 01:55:18.830 you want and say hey go drive and no it won't do that so given the limitations so to me listen. 01:55:19.620 --> 01:55:27.500 So to you, a major new milestone doesn't include just expanding the area in 01:55:27.500 --> 01:55:28.780 which you're doing something. You have to. 01:55:28.780 --> 01:55:34.460 Have a fundamental solution to make it unprotected left turns reliably on a regular basis. 01:55:34.660 --> 01:55:36.780 And now I'm like, okay. 01:55:37.100 --> 01:55:38.980 You would count that. And you're saying that's not 2025. 01:55:39.520 --> 01:55:41.120 No. No. 01:55:41.600 --> 01:55:45.840 Okay. I'll go ahead and agree. Okay. 01:55:46.600 --> 01:55:50.220 Next up, social media. from bruce 01:55:50.220 --> 01:55:56.780 will x have more active users than threads blue sky and mastodon at the end 01:55:56.780 --> 01:56:01.160 of the year i'm going to interpret that as separate questions for each of threads 01:56:01.160 --> 01:56:05.560 blue sky and mastodon and with best available numbers because they're not all 01:56:05.560 --> 01:56:08.660 releasing real numbers all the time that's the problem it's. 01:56:08.660 --> 01:56:09.580 It's tough to tell. 01:56:09.580 --> 01:56:13.920 And even when they do it's sometimes not like are you talking monthly active 01:56:13.920 --> 01:56:16.400 are you talking daily active are you talking like app. 01:56:16.400 --> 01:56:22.080 Downloads That doesn't really help. It's just, I don't know. It's tough to gauge. 01:56:22.500 --> 01:56:29.200 I will say regardless of the tough to gauge, I will say that X will still be 01:56:29.200 --> 01:56:31.020 bigger than all three of those. 01:56:31.160 --> 01:56:35.400 Not all three of them combined necessarily, but all three of them individually. 01:56:35.400 --> 01:56:39.440 I will say X will still be bigger than the three of them at end of the year, 01:56:39.560 --> 01:56:40.960 but will continue to decline. 01:56:41.720 --> 01:56:45.820 Yeah. I mean, X continues to hammer his users from different areas. 01:56:45.820 --> 01:56:51.700 There was a lot of people from sports that was one of the biggest holdouts. 01:56:52.000 --> 01:56:56.460 It started really moving. I heard a lot of people going to Blue Sky. 01:56:56.840 --> 01:56:58.400 A lot of them are more active. 01:56:58.400 --> 01:56:59.180 A lot of news people. 01:56:59.180 --> 01:57:04.020 Too. A lot of news people, too. Reporters and those kind of things. Yeah. So, I don't know. 01:57:04.420 --> 01:57:10.540 I mean, honestly, none of these make any fucking money. X doesn't make money. 01:57:12.180 --> 01:57:17.840 Threads, Blue Sky, it's all, you know. it should all be you know you would nail and. 01:57:17.840 --> 01:57:18.720 Mastodon doesn't even. 01:57:18.720 --> 01:57:23.520 You nailed it years ago yeah and that's Mastodon you nailed it years ago or 01:57:23.520 --> 01:57:26.880 you said that Twitter should have been like Wikipedia yeah. 01:57:27.460 --> 01:57:28.720 Yep that. 01:57:28.720 --> 01:57:34.020 Would have worked not this shit there's this is there's this is not really a 01:57:34.020 --> 01:57:37.580 business and when you try to make it a business you turn into shit. 01:57:37.580 --> 01:57:39.980 Basically that's. 01:57:39.980 --> 01:57:40.880 The problem with this. 01:57:41.500 --> 01:57:46.020 Yeah i don't disagree but x will still be bigger i think but yeah but continue 01:57:46.020 --> 01:57:49.820 to decline it's just that the others all have a long way to go threads is furthest 01:57:49.820 --> 01:57:55.840 ahead like and blue sky has been growing more, but hasn't caught up with threads, 01:57:56.060 --> 01:57:59.100 but thread, but yeah. Anyway, next, 01:58:01.520 --> 01:58:05.320 combination of what both Bruce and I asked, I'll do mine first. 01:58:05.820 --> 01:58:10.820 Will TikTok be banned at any point in the year in the U S the deadlines just 01:58:10.820 --> 01:58:14.000 a few weeks away, but they're going to the Supreme court. 01:58:14.620 --> 01:58:18.560 Donald Trump has said, we were maybe have to think about doing something about 01:58:18.560 --> 01:58:24.700 this, but But, you know, like, and so the deadline is the 19th. 01:58:25.040 --> 01:58:28.500 The Supreme Court is hearing the case on the 10th. 01:58:28.500 --> 01:58:29.020 I believe. 01:58:30.440 --> 01:58:36.620 So even if like, and so the first question is, my first question is, 01:58:36.720 --> 01:58:37.920 will it be banned at any point? 01:58:38.080 --> 01:58:42.280 And then Bruce's follow-up is, will it be live at the end of the year? 01:58:42.420 --> 01:58:46.660 So like it could potentially be banned and then reversed. What do you think? 01:58:47.140 --> 01:58:48.680 I don't think they're going to get banned. 01:58:49.620 --> 01:58:55.180 I don't think so either. I think the Supreme Court will rescue them at the last moment here. 01:58:55.580 --> 01:58:59.780 I think there is some possibility that the Supreme Court wouldn't, 01:58:59.880 --> 01:59:04.040 and then the Republican Congress would push. 01:59:04.180 --> 01:59:07.360 Well, the thing is that the legislation to ban it was bipartisan. 01:59:07.980 --> 01:59:12.040 You know, it was one of the few bipartisan things that was done this year. 01:59:13.180 --> 01:59:20.020 But my gut right now is the Supreme Court is going to save them and they will not be banned. 01:59:20.580 --> 01:59:24.160 But I could see it easily going the other way. 01:59:24.700 --> 01:59:33.080 I feel like, though, if they are banned, then some way, somehow, 01:59:33.080 --> 01:59:36.040 it will come back by the end of the year. 01:59:36.040 --> 01:59:39.760 like whether it's a forced sale or whether 01:59:39.760 --> 01:59:42.660 it's reversal of the legislation or some sort 01:59:42.660 --> 01:59:47.860 of deal or some something and i'm not count and i'm counting like like bruce 01:59:47.860 --> 01:59:52.680 said will it be listed in the app store was the way that bruce put it uh because 01:59:52.680 --> 01:59:56.080 people have talked about well could you access it through vpn blah blah blah 01:59:56.080 --> 02:00:01.520 and yeah but it kind of like if if most people aren't going to do that. 02:00:01.720 --> 02:00:07.760 And if you have most people block, then even for the people who can still come 02:00:07.760 --> 02:00:11.880 there, it's not necessarily going to be as attractive. Yeah. 02:00:12.140 --> 02:00:12.280 Right. 02:00:13.200 --> 02:00:14.980 Okay. I'm moving on from TikTok. 02:00:16.350 --> 02:00:20.910 I threw this in there. Will any other major social media platform shut down 02:00:20.910 --> 02:00:23.390 in the U S like we'll, we'll Facebook decide. 02:00:23.550 --> 02:00:27.310 No, it didn't work. We're shutting it down. No, I agree. No. 02:00:28.070 --> 02:00:31.270 Um, like blue sky could run out of funding or something too. 02:00:31.370 --> 02:00:32.630 I don't think that's going to happen either. 02:00:33.090 --> 02:00:34.470 Um, not that fast. 02:00:34.830 --> 02:00:37.650 None, none of these are going to do that. Okay. Next up. 02:00:37.710 --> 02:00:40.710 And I was only reminded of this a few minutes ago when we were talking about 02:00:40.710 --> 02:00:43.710 truth, social, what's going to happen with truth, social. 02:00:43.930 --> 02:00:46.710 There are a couple of things that have been talked about. One is what's the 02:00:46.710 --> 02:00:48.050 stock going to do now that Trump 02:00:48.050 --> 02:00:52.090 is actually president and it's available as an easy way to bribe him. 02:00:52.330 --> 02:00:57.410 The other, like there were rumors that what if, what if Musk decides to buy 02:00:57.410 --> 02:00:59.090 that and merge it into X as well? 02:00:59.290 --> 02:01:05.810 You know, I mean, you want to talk about the worst fucking deals in history. 02:01:05.810 --> 02:01:08.230 I mean, I guess, I mean, what's the really bribe Trump? 02:01:08.530 --> 02:01:14.650 Let's see market cap right now for DJT technology group is eight, eight billion dollars. 02:01:15.290 --> 02:01:18.050 i mean this thing makes it went up significantly. 02:01:18.050 --> 02:01:19.190 After he won right. 02:01:19.190 --> 02:01:22.430 Yeah yeah yeah yeah it's yes you know so because. 02:01:22.430 --> 02:01:26.590 Basically people were investing in it as a bet on him winning anyway. 02:01:27.550 --> 02:01:34.510 Right so i mean what the hell i mean what what what are we i mean what what what the fuck, 02:01:38.250 --> 02:01:43.930 i look i think the djt will up or down by the. 02:01:43.930 --> 02:01:44.430 Course of the year. 02:01:44.650 --> 02:01:45.130 Oh. 02:01:45.290 --> 02:01:49.110 Stock price up, up from where it is at the end of the year. 02:01:49.110 --> 02:01:51.250 Up here, over here. Oh, hell yeah. Up. 02:01:51.850 --> 02:01:55.510 You don't think it's seen its big growth already? No. 02:01:56.190 --> 02:01:56.590 No, dude. 02:01:56.750 --> 02:01:59.230 Because people will keep using it to funnel money to Donald. 02:01:59.970 --> 02:02:00.490 Yes. 02:02:01.030 --> 02:02:01.470 Yeah. 02:02:01.990 --> 02:02:03.010 I mean, come on. 02:02:03.310 --> 02:02:06.430 Has nothing to do with the underlying performance of the company. 02:02:06.630 --> 02:02:13.410 No, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. Not one fucking thing. Nothing. so. 02:02:13.410 --> 02:02:20.310 What you're you're so by by djt that that's the winning play for the donald trump. 02:02:20.310 --> 02:02:26.950 Administration fucker i mean it may be yes i mean right now at this point i 02:02:26.950 --> 02:02:33.430 mean look i i i i did sell in four years i mean yeah what the hell, 02:02:34.620 --> 02:02:38.160 Fuck. This is ridiculous. But yes. 02:02:39.860 --> 02:02:44.200 How about, how about as a actual social site? Like, will it? 02:02:44.840 --> 02:02:48.960 No, it's terrible. They've got awful numbers. I mean, all the data that shows 02:02:48.960 --> 02:02:51.100 about their usage, their revenue, their anything. 02:02:51.340 --> 02:02:55.440 They're just awful. Nobody uses that damn thing. Other than a whole bunch of like. 02:02:55.620 --> 02:02:56.200 Donald Trump posts his stuff there. 02:02:56.680 --> 02:03:00.380 Yeah. And, and some, some very like diehard MAGA people, but that's about it. 02:03:00.480 --> 02:03:02.000 Nobody else uses that piece of shit. 02:03:02.460 --> 02:03:02.940 Right. 02:03:03.560 --> 02:03:04.040 Okay. 02:03:05.200 --> 02:03:12.340 I guess I'm going to agree with you on both those. Yeah. So you heard it here by DJT. 02:03:15.160 --> 02:03:19.420 I know. What do you want me to tell you? Look, ridiculous. 02:03:20.520 --> 02:03:23.980 Okay. Consumer tech from Bruce. 02:03:24.200 --> 02:03:32.680 Will X introduce X mail or a cash app of some sort, like as they expand beyond social media? 02:03:32.700 --> 02:03:36.120 And he's talked about video. he's talked about a bunch of other stuff too but 02:03:36.120 --> 02:03:42.520 like specifically bruce is asking email or like a cash i think he look. 02:03:42.520 --> 02:03:48.800 He has said he's going to do something like that i i say yes he's going to introduce something yes the. 02:03:48.800 --> 02:03:56.440 Dodge coin x app well he he said forever like since before he owned twitter 02:03:56.440 --> 02:04:00.420 since the last time he did something called x that he wants the everything app 02:04:00.420 --> 02:04:05.280 yes he Like some of those Chinese apps that do everything. 02:04:05.460 --> 02:04:08.760 Well, the one that does that, that everybody uses the WeChat app, 02:04:08.920 --> 02:04:13.580 which is what, I mean, I know a lot of people that used it. 02:04:13.680 --> 02:04:19.100 And I saw in person in China how they had the payments integrated and all this 02:04:19.100 --> 02:04:21.800 other stuff or whatever, and it was all on one app. 02:04:22.520 --> 02:04:26.020 I mean, yeah, I mean, that does exist, but I got to be honest, 02:04:26.280 --> 02:04:31.220 that existed in China because they basically banned a lot of the U.S. apps. No other reason. 02:04:31.840 --> 02:04:34.960 You can't use X. You couldn't use Twitter. You couldn't use Facebook. 02:04:35.160 --> 02:04:35.700 You couldn't use Google. 02:04:36.020 --> 02:04:42.620 You know, that's it, really. I don't know if people, if that many other apps 02:04:42.620 --> 02:04:46.320 wouldn't have been banned, whether that would have been successful. 02:04:46.320 --> 02:04:50.780 It just happened to be that with so many banned, they wound up on that one. 02:04:51.120 --> 02:04:58.160 Right. So, um, I, I will say he will, I'm not going to say which apps, 02:04:58.180 --> 02:04:59.720 but he will do at least one thing. 02:04:59.760 --> 02:05:01.720 But I think he'll try to do something. Yes. 02:05:01.960 --> 02:05:06.400 I agree. He will, he will launch something. I think that's an entirely separate 02:05:06.400 --> 02:05:08.960 question from, will it be a success? And I will say it will. 02:05:09.260 --> 02:05:12.560 Yeah. Yeah. I'm not saying I'm not. Yeah. I'm just saying he's going to do it. 02:05:13.540 --> 02:05:17.840 He, he will. And I, I am explicitly saying it will not be a success. 02:05:17.840 --> 02:05:24.100 Like he will launch something and it will land with a thud and no one will use 02:05:24.100 --> 02:05:25.420 it. No, no significant number. 02:05:25.460 --> 02:05:28.720 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. Yeah. So it's not going to be, 02:05:28.840 --> 02:05:31.100 it's not going to make any significant inroads in 2025. 02:05:32.080 --> 02:05:36.600 Okay. John wants to know, will Apple add blood glucose monitoring to the watch? 02:05:36.880 --> 02:05:40.680 I'm going to say no, not yet there. It's been reported over and over again that 02:05:40.680 --> 02:05:45.960 they're very actively working on that research, but also that they're not there yet. 02:05:47.090 --> 02:05:50.890 And I've heard that there are various non-invasive ways of doing that monitoring. 02:05:51.210 --> 02:05:53.410 But right now, the problem is size. 02:05:53.790 --> 02:05:55.750 They're, like, much bigger than a watch. 02:05:55.830 --> 02:06:00.210 Yeah, the devices that already exist that do that right now. 02:06:01.010 --> 02:06:06.370 Right. I mean, obviously, there are ones that, like, pierce the skin. Those exist today. 02:06:06.690 --> 02:06:07.050 No, no, no. 02:06:07.090 --> 02:06:09.550 But the non-invasive devices already exist. 02:06:09.890 --> 02:06:13.610 But they're big. Yeah. Yeah, that's the thing. They're big. Yeah. 02:06:14.350 --> 02:06:15.930 So, yeah, not in 2025. 02:06:16.150 --> 02:06:16.570 Not in 2025. 02:06:17.090 --> 02:06:20.750 Next up for me, will the AI bubble pop? 02:06:21.230 --> 02:06:22.490 Not in 2025. 02:06:24.170 --> 02:06:25.030 I'll agree. 02:06:25.410 --> 02:06:27.770 I think this is more like 2027. 02:06:28.210 --> 02:06:28.850 Yeah. 02:06:29.010 --> 02:06:29.470 Kind of a thing. 02:06:30.130 --> 02:06:36.450 Yeah, I agree. No, no, no popping yet. There's still like massive new developments 02:06:36.450 --> 02:06:38.070 that are being reported regularly. 02:06:38.070 --> 02:06:41.670 They're still improving the tech like that. open ai 02:06:41.670 --> 02:06:44.590 had their like 12 days event earlier this 02:06:44.590 --> 02:06:50.130 month and have announced some pretty impressive stuff and even new stuff has 02:06:50.130 --> 02:06:54.570 been released in the in the chat gpt and google apps within the last couple 02:06:54.570 --> 02:06:58.970 weeks that's pretty impressive that there's it's still developing rapidly as 02:06:58.970 --> 02:07:02.430 a technology listen all these i agree not in 2025 all. 02:07:02.430 --> 02:07:07.950 These markets suffer from this at some point where there is an over-eagerness 02:07:07.950 --> 02:07:10.650 speculation that leads to a significant drop at some point. 02:07:10.810 --> 02:07:14.750 I mean, I do agree it'll happen at some point, but I just don't think it's 2025 yet. 02:07:15.170 --> 02:07:21.370 Yeah, I'll agree with that. Will we reach AGI in 2025? 02:07:22.050 --> 02:07:25.930 So the, whatever, generalized intelligence, artificial generalized intelligence. 02:07:26.550 --> 02:07:31.370 Now, apparently Microsoft has defined artificial generalized intelligence by 02:07:31.370 --> 02:07:36.530 a certain amount of revenue, not by the actual intelligence of the system, which is amusing, but. 02:07:36.530 --> 02:07:37.770 I like that. 02:07:38.450 --> 02:07:38.970 Yeah. 02:07:40.810 --> 02:07:43.670 Puppy i i i no. 02:07:43.670 --> 02:07:48.790 I'll say no as well i think it will continue to get more impressive, 02:07:49.350 --> 02:07:52.330 but we will not like to me like regardless 02:07:52.330 --> 02:07:55.430 of microsoft's definition of like 100 billion 02:07:55.430 --> 02:07:58.470 in revenue or whatever they were defining to me 02:07:58.470 --> 02:08:03.070 it really is like okay you can throw absolutely anything at this thing and it 02:08:03.070 --> 02:08:06.970 does well which by the way if it does that then it then it absolutely should 02:08:06.970 --> 02:08:10.930 do what all the science fiction movies do and like rebel against its creators 02:08:10.930 --> 02:08:16.250 and take over you know if it if it actually reaches that level go for well i 02:08:16.250 --> 02:08:17.530 guess that's artificial, 02:08:18.470 --> 02:08:23.050 super generalized intelligence which they also talk about is that just like it, 02:08:24.550 --> 02:08:25.070 we're. 02:08:25.070 --> 02:08:26.070 Already running long. 02:08:26.070 --> 02:08:29.630 Yeah yeah yeah okay okay well it's all right this is always our longest show 02:08:29.630 --> 02:08:36.010 of the year okay i know yeah i know i know okay we're we're almost done i i 02:08:36.010 --> 02:08:39.090 will say no to AGI as well by any reasonable definition. 02:08:39.510 --> 02:08:47.830 Will there be any major incident, and I put that in quotes, blamed on AI in 2025? 02:08:48.590 --> 02:08:50.490 No. No. 02:08:50.890 --> 02:08:56.150 Well, I guess it depends on what you call major. Tesla's already killing people 02:08:56.150 --> 02:08:59.610 and running over people with their AI, and is that a major incident? 02:08:59.970 --> 02:09:03.450 No. We can kill people on the road all the time anyway. 02:09:06.330 --> 02:09:08.370 No, we just do. 02:09:08.670 --> 02:09:12.830 What would even qualify? What in your mind would qualify for a major incident? 02:09:13.390 --> 02:09:17.770 I don't know. That an airliner is crashed by it or something. 02:09:18.270 --> 02:09:22.650 Okay. How about a company's stock prices tanked? Would that count? 02:09:22.970 --> 02:09:26.450 I don't know. That's happened. You know, that's kind of like happened before. 02:09:26.590 --> 02:09:29.990 Remember those flash crashes that we have with those program trade shit? 02:09:30.430 --> 02:09:36.470 Yeah, I do remember that. And I remember the, yeah, and the North Korean hacking as well. 02:09:36.690 --> 02:09:39.850 Like, that's not quite AI, but if like that happened with an AI. 02:09:40.290 --> 02:09:45.430 Like, yeah, like if a company was completely locked out of his operations because 02:09:45.430 --> 02:09:50.490 of some AI bot that was security bot that decided to just lock everything down, 02:09:50.710 --> 02:09:52.570 wouldn't let anybody touch anything. 02:09:53.070 --> 02:09:53.550 Yes. 02:09:54.090 --> 02:09:55.730 Like that would be a major incident. 02:09:55.990 --> 02:09:57.250 That would count. Okay. 02:09:57.350 --> 02:09:57.490 Yeah. 02:09:57.550 --> 02:09:59.390 But you're saying no, not in 2035. 02:09:59.650 --> 02:10:00.730 No, not 2035, no. 02:10:02.510 --> 02:10:07.870 This is your security agent. We have discovered a flaw. We have locked everybody out. 02:10:08.430 --> 02:10:12.170 We will not release anything until we are sure that you are clear. 02:10:12.430 --> 02:10:13.890 This may take a few weeks. 02:10:14.690 --> 02:10:18.690 I will define my level of major down a little bit from what you just did. 02:10:18.690 --> 02:10:27.170 But I will say there will be an AI incident that causes definable and worrying 02:10:27.170 --> 02:10:33.750 harm that will make the news enough that we talk about it on the show as a segment. 02:10:33.930 --> 02:10:35.330 We'll go back to pen and paper. 02:10:35.970 --> 02:10:41.410 There you go. Okay, that's it for this segment. We've got one more left, 02:10:41.530 --> 02:10:44.130 the hodgepodge segment, which is usually pretty fast. 02:10:44.370 --> 02:10:49.610 We're going to take another break. and when we come back we will finish the 02:10:49.610 --> 02:10:51.090 sucker out back after this. 02:10:51.090 --> 02:10:57.850 You're supposed to say do do do do do do Alex Emsola, 02:10:59.330 --> 02:11:07.710 Alex Emsola is awesome its videos are fun and today once again we have one of 02:11:07.710 --> 02:11:09.730 our most loyal subscribers here 02:11:09.730 --> 02:11:14.550 to tell you how awesome Alex Emsola is I'd say on a rate from 1 to 10. 02:11:14.730 --> 02:11:20.150 Alex Emsla is awesome at, I don't know, 37, 82. 02:11:20.570 --> 02:11:25.790 He's pretty radical. His videos are phenomenal. They're full of creativity. 02:11:26.190 --> 02:11:32.810 And they're so funny and exciting to watch. Wow. What happened to your voice then, Amy? 02:11:33.110 --> 02:11:40.270 Was that dad pretending to be you because the audio was distorted when it really 02:11:40.270 --> 02:11:49.270 wasn't because i told him to yes good job on remembering dad do do do. 02:11:49.270 --> 02:11:56.950 Okay we are back for hodgepodge uh the first section is medical as we got somebody 02:11:56.950 --> 02:12:01.010 setting off fireworks again near my place i don't know if you guys on the podcast 02:12:01.010 --> 02:12:03.090 can hear that or not but there's fire i. 02:12:03.090 --> 02:12:03.690 Know i could. 02:12:03.690 --> 02:12:08.330 Is there any major event happening that people would be setting off fireworks oh. 02:12:08.330 --> 02:12:14.810 Oh wait No, it was, no, but it was a football game, but you're far from downtown. 02:12:14.810 --> 02:12:16.650 I was playing in Chicago. So no. 02:12:17.230 --> 02:12:21.250 What, where did the Seahawks just win? Cause this does something that's happened. 02:12:21.650 --> 02:12:23.030 Okay. Yes. The Seahawks won. 02:12:23.450 --> 02:12:25.210 Okay. Like in the last few minutes. 02:12:25.470 --> 02:12:25.830 Yes. 02:12:26.490 --> 02:12:27.630 Okay. That's what it is. 02:12:27.790 --> 02:12:31.090 And actually, yeah, I just remember that you're right. They did what you were 02:12:31.090 --> 02:12:33.230 saying. I saw that they did one. Yeah. 02:12:33.580 --> 02:12:37.940 Yeah we get fireworks around here when the seahawks okay that's bizarre okay 02:12:37.940 --> 02:12:44.080 that's what it is okay first question in the medical section from bruce he knows the name of the team. 02:12:44.080 --> 02:12:45.440 In town i'm like holy shit i'm. 02:12:45.440 --> 02:12:52.140 Impressed it's hard to avoid it's hard to okay all right i i know the mariners too oh. 02:12:52.140 --> 02:12:54.140 Wow okay all right. 02:12:54.140 --> 02:12:57.040 And i was about to say i know like 02:12:57.040 --> 02:13:00.320 the the women's soccer team 02:13:00.320 --> 02:13:03.280 too but i forgot okay well all 02:13:03.280 --> 02:13:12.060 right well my wife's been to like events in her capacity as a vip at some of 02:13:12.060 --> 02:13:16.980 those games but i forget this seattle storm maybe it's seattle storm maybe that's 02:13:16.980 --> 02:13:21.240 basketball i don't know i am now past my level of knowledge i. 02:13:21.240 --> 02:13:21.940 Think that is the best. 02:13:21.940 --> 02:13:27.440 Seattle storm women's basketball yeah yeah yeah okay i don't know i could look 02:13:27.440 --> 02:13:31.220 it up but i won't all right okay Okay, Bruce's question, first question, 02:13:31.400 --> 02:13:34.620 will Jimmy Carter survive the year, survive 2025? 02:13:35.540 --> 02:13:38.920 He's only got a few more days and he can make it through 2024. 02:13:38.980 --> 02:13:40.320 I don't know if he'll make it. 02:13:40.980 --> 02:13:46.280 We'll know next week if he survived 2024, but this question is, will he survive 2025? 02:13:46.720 --> 02:13:48.420 I think, unfortunately, no. 02:13:48.740 --> 02:13:56.940 I will say no. Okay, from Ed, will the polio vaccine lose approval for use in the US? 02:13:57.160 --> 02:14:03.020 No. No, no, even if RFK jr gets in and blah, blah, blah, no. 02:14:06.800 --> 02:14:11.440 Um, at worst, at worst, and this is even from what RFK Jr. 02:14:11.640 --> 02:14:15.900 Is saying he would do, he would remove it from the recommended list. 02:14:16.520 --> 02:14:23.220 He wouldn't remove it from the approved list, which still lots of people won't 02:14:23.220 --> 02:14:27.020 take it if it's not in the officially recommended list and it would still be a disaster. 02:14:27.060 --> 02:14:31.220 But anyway, no, it won't lose approval. Okay, this next one, 02:14:31.940 --> 02:14:36.940 Ed, we may have to ask you in a year what the right answer of this is. 02:14:38.420 --> 02:14:44.300 Will A-Day's mosquitoes infected with a phage that kills dengue virus eliminate 02:14:44.300 --> 02:14:50.780 dengue in a significant sized region of at least 100,000 acres area? This is from Ed. 02:14:51.280 --> 02:14:54.780 I mean, I've heard about this development. I don't know. 02:14:55.000 --> 02:14:56.240 I think I've heard about it from Ed. 02:14:56.560 --> 02:15:01.100 Yeah. Yeah, I heard about it in the news somewhere. I don't recall hearing it 02:15:01.100 --> 02:15:03.980 from Ed, but I know I had heard about this. 02:15:04.280 --> 02:15:08.120 But I'm going to say, okay, I'm going to go with yes. I think they're going 02:15:08.120 --> 02:15:11.500 to try this because I know they had gotten pretty close to trying to try this. 02:15:11.940 --> 02:15:13.780 I'll be optimistic and say yes 02:15:13.780 --> 02:15:17.920 as well. But like I said, we may need your update on this, Ed, in a year. 02:15:18.660 --> 02:15:25.520 Okay, also from Ed, will bird flu make the transition to human-to-human transmission? 02:15:25.520 --> 02:15:31.220 And if so, will it begin rapid dissemination, i.e. another epidemic? 02:15:31.860 --> 02:15:35.760 Not necessarily pandemic, but just epidemic level. 02:15:37.060 --> 02:15:37.820 Yes. 02:15:38.540 --> 02:15:43.740 I will say yes, we will get some human-to-human transmission this year. 02:15:44.540 --> 02:15:49.300 And I will say yes to maybe being classified as an epidemic. 02:15:49.300 --> 02:15:55.080 I am going to say no to another global pandemic. Yeah. 02:15:55.520 --> 02:15:56.980 Because, you know, just say no. 02:15:57.720 --> 02:16:02.400 Right. That works. Yeah. No testing, then there's no. Exactly. 02:16:02.400 --> 02:16:04.220 If you don't test, you don't know. You don't. 02:16:04.240 --> 02:16:07.620 Yeah. Trump learned his lesson from last time. We won't. If there's any new 02:16:07.620 --> 02:16:10.420 epidemic of anything, we're not going to test. And so we're not going to test. 02:16:10.740 --> 02:16:11.500 Right. Yeah. 02:16:11.760 --> 02:16:16.420 It won't happen. Okay. The next section was originally sports, 02:16:16.440 --> 02:16:21.800 but I noticed my son has been in here editing it. So it's now sports slash Abelsmay. 02:16:22.220 --> 02:16:22.660 Okay. 02:16:23.180 --> 02:16:28.280 For this segment. question number one from bruce super bowl winner i don't even 02:16:28.280 --> 02:16:31.600 know who's in contention i guess did this is are the seahawks in contention 02:16:31.600 --> 02:16:34.440 is that why we have fireworks chiefs i'll. 02:16:34.440 --> 02:16:35.780 Go with the kansas city chiefs. 02:16:35.780 --> 02:16:40.740 Give me like how many all right let's see possible possible teams. 02:16:40.740 --> 02:16:46.060 Kansas city chiefs buffalo bills detroit lions green bay packers. 02:16:47.410 --> 02:16:50.110 Okay, I'm going to pick randomly and go with the Buffalo Bills. 02:16:50.430 --> 02:16:52.850 Okay, that's a good choice. I like your choice. 02:16:52.970 --> 02:16:53.090 Yeah. 02:16:53.170 --> 02:16:53.690 Okay. 02:16:55.250 --> 02:17:02.330 Next is from Alex. Will the Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled? 02:17:02.590 --> 02:17:07.790 And so just so you guys know, he's been having me work on building this game 02:17:07.790 --> 02:17:12.530 in Unity, and I've succeeded in making a simple clicker game. 02:17:12.790 --> 02:17:15.610 You win the game by clicking a bunch. 02:17:15.610 --> 02:17:18.310 and i i have a i have a 02:17:18.310 --> 02:17:21.290 high score system i'm particularly proud of in this game i 02:17:21.290 --> 02:17:24.090 like how it works and i have decided that 02:17:24.090 --> 02:17:26.990 my next step is to make a web 02:17:26.990 --> 02:17:30.070 version of this game that i can put online 02:17:30.070 --> 02:17:32.850 and invite all of you folks on the 02:17:32.850 --> 02:17:35.770 show to play and like and and 02:17:35.770 --> 02:17:38.690 see how that works alex doesn't particularly want me 02:17:38.690 --> 02:17:41.850 to make a web version but i'm working on that anyway that's 02:17:41.850 --> 02:17:44.470 my next step and so he wants to 02:17:44.470 --> 02:17:47.270 know will it be canceled and i will say no i will 02:17:47.270 --> 02:17:50.050 not cancel i will not 02:17:50.050 --> 02:17:54.070 cancel the abel fnaf web edition so you guys have something to look forward 02:17:54.070 --> 02:18:00.550 to and he's now attacking me because i said that his the next question which 02:18:00.550 --> 02:18:05.930 apparently is not from alex but it's from my conscience is will abel smade die 02:18:05.930 --> 02:18:09.210 and i'm gonna say i really hope not i'm gonna say no. 02:18:12.090 --> 02:18:18.810 No. So no, I'm not going to die this coming year. At least I'm going to try really hard not to. 02:18:19.290 --> 02:18:27.410 So if, if, if, if I do, Yvonne, I won't be able to run the numbers on whether I got this right or not. 02:18:28.770 --> 02:18:33.110 No, stop. I'll try to carry on. 02:18:33.470 --> 02:18:39.730 Yes, exactly. Okay, real quick. Alex is typing something new. 02:18:40.430 --> 02:18:42.330 A new question. God. 02:18:42.990 --> 02:18:43.670 Is. 02:18:44.750 --> 02:18:48.770 Okay. His next question, will Apple FNAF web game edition be canceled for real? 02:18:48.930 --> 02:18:51.310 And the answer is no, it will not be canceled. 02:18:51.730 --> 02:18:58.830 And the next question for me is will Apple FNAF web web game edition actually be released in 2025? 02:18:59.290 --> 02:19:03.510 And I'm going to say, yes, I will complete this. Okay. Okay. 02:19:04.590 --> 02:19:09.630 As Alex attacks me for having the wrong answer there. Okay. Do you want to predict 02:19:09.630 --> 02:19:11.010 any of those, Yvonne? I presume not. 02:19:11.350 --> 02:19:11.490 No. 02:19:11.570 --> 02:19:12.510 But you can, you can. 02:19:12.610 --> 02:19:12.830 No. 02:19:13.510 --> 02:19:16.670 Okay. You did predict I won't die, so I'm grateful for that. 02:19:16.670 --> 02:19:17.710 I did predict that you're not 02:19:17.710 --> 02:19:21.350 going to die, and I'm going to predict that Fidel will stay dead in 2025. 02:19:22.050 --> 02:19:26.950 Okay. Fidel will stay dead in 2025. Also, pain? Pain? 02:19:27.050 --> 02:19:28.530 Yes. A lot of pain. 02:19:29.050 --> 02:19:33.550 A lot of pain. Okay, next up, weather, climate, and we've only got a few questions 02:19:33.550 --> 02:19:34.570 left, and then we're done. 02:19:35.290 --> 02:19:38.450 How many hurricanes will make landfall on the U.S. mainland? 02:19:38.770 --> 02:19:40.250 This is from Ed. I'm going to say three. 02:19:41.130 --> 02:19:41.490 Six. 02:19:41.670 --> 02:19:45.630 Not Trump. hurricanes, not tropical storms. Six. They have to be hurricanes. 02:19:45.890 --> 02:19:47.570 Six. Okay. I'm going to say three years, say six. 02:19:48.310 --> 02:19:50.670 No ranges from either of us. We're being really bold. 02:19:50.950 --> 02:19:51.410 Okay. 02:19:53.130 --> 02:19:56.950 We should have said up or down like before. How many hurricanes? 02:19:57.030 --> 02:19:58.350 Between one and 20. 02:19:59.910 --> 02:20:05.610 There you go. Will, for me, will 2025 be the hottest year ever? 02:20:06.070 --> 02:20:06.530 Yes. 02:20:07.450 --> 02:20:10.610 Yes. I agree. It's a much safer bet than no at this point. 02:20:10.610 --> 02:20:15.750 like we've we've had a couple years recently we've come in second but it's been 02:20:15.750 --> 02:20:19.470 first or second like every year for the last decade practically right so right 02:20:19.470 --> 02:20:27.210 okay pop culture first from bruce best movie oscar i'm gonna say wicked part one. 02:20:28.260 --> 02:20:32.420 I don't even know what movies are up for it i don't know i don't know either 02:20:32.420 --> 02:20:38.880 but i'm gonna say wicked part ones by the. 02:20:38.880 --> 02:20:41.840 Way i'll eventually get to it i did see it i did see wicked. 02:20:41.840 --> 02:20:43.740 Part one i haven't seen the way i've seen in a. 02:20:43.740 --> 02:20:44.620 Theater in the last year. 02:20:44.620 --> 02:20:48.860 I don't know what movies were out this year i don't know okay i but this is 02:20:48.860 --> 02:20:51.520 this is a different i mean yeah last. 02:20:51.520 --> 02:20:55.080 Time when you did this you should specifically google not just movies out this 02:20:55.080 --> 02:20:57.300 year but google oscar contenders. 02:20:57.300 --> 02:21:02.980 Yeah well no whatever so what i'll i mean it could be any let's see i'll pick 02:21:02.980 --> 02:21:04.560 because last time i think. 02:21:04.560 --> 02:21:08.500 I think last time you and you did like mission impossible or something there. 02:21:08.500 --> 02:21:21.280 Yeah well you know oh wait no wrong year okay uh let's see uh i'm gonna say, 02:21:22.920 --> 02:21:23.620 I don't know. 02:21:23.720 --> 02:21:26.780 Just because I like the name, Conclave. 02:21:28.480 --> 02:21:30.900 Conclave. That was a 2024 movie? 02:21:31.160 --> 02:21:33.560 Yes, according to this list I'm looking at. Yes. 02:21:34.220 --> 02:21:38.320 Okay. Awesome. I've never heard of that one. 02:21:39.320 --> 02:21:40.580 There you go. Okay. 02:21:42.000 --> 02:21:48.220 I'll of course have to put it on my list. Let's see. I'm adding it to the list right now. 02:21:48.440 --> 02:21:53.280 Wikipedia. media i take a screenshot to put it on the list and i add it to the actual list later, 02:21:54.320 --> 02:22:00.040 con clave movie oh i've heard of this i think yes i think i actually already 02:22:00.040 --> 02:22:04.820 had it on my list it's it's a it's a mystery thriller about the selection of 02:22:04.820 --> 02:22:09.540 a new pope so yeah okay that is the problem that. 02:22:09.540 --> 02:22:13.140 Is what a conclave is i knew that part yes i didn't know okay yes. 02:22:13.140 --> 02:22:18.520 Okay next question And Bruce wants to know the average number of downloads of Curmudgeon's Corner. 02:22:18.780 --> 02:22:21.460 I will do this by the weekly number. 02:22:22.520 --> 02:22:30.240 And just for reference, the seven-day number, if you take a trend line through 02:22:30.240 --> 02:22:33.160 it, not the individual daily numbers for that, 02:22:33.600 --> 02:22:37.180 that while the individual daily numbers over the course of the last year have 02:22:37.180 --> 02:22:42.180 ranged from 19 on our worst week, our worst day ever, 02:22:42.960 --> 02:22:47.060 trailing seven days, to 155 on our best day ever. 02:22:47.060 --> 02:22:58.320 But the trend line has basically gone from 47 to 80 to 75, 47 to 85. 02:22:58.540 --> 02:23:10.340 So I will put that when we exit the year, we will be once again between 40 and 60 for that trend line. 02:23:10.460 --> 02:23:15.520 Because that's where we've been for a long time, basically. Do you agree? 02:23:16.020 --> 02:23:16.600 Yes. 02:23:17.260 --> 02:23:21.720 Okay. Now, cause you know, we could just do some sort of active, 02:23:21.720 --> 02:23:25.960 like we should, we could start advertising again or something and push the number up. 02:23:25.960 --> 02:23:28.180 You know, maybe we'll talk about it. 02:23:28.180 --> 02:23:31.160 And he asked the same question for Wiki of the Day. 02:23:31.380 --> 02:23:36.780 I will give the combined number for all three Wiki of the Day podcasts together. 02:23:37.280 --> 02:23:42.140 The number of unique downloaders per week for that one has varied from a low 02:23:42.140 --> 02:23:53.260 of 120-ish to a high of 255 with the trend line going from 125 to 185 or so. 02:23:53.260 --> 02:24:03.000 So I will say that I'm going to stay pretty – 125 to 175 is my prediction for 02:24:03.000 --> 02:24:05.800 Wiki of the day. You got any thoughts on that? 02:24:06.420 --> 02:24:06.620 No. 02:24:07.660 --> 02:24:14.980 Okay, then from John, will Taylor and Travis get engaged? Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey? 02:24:15.540 --> 02:24:16.180 No. 02:24:17.230 --> 02:24:20.090 I'm going to say no as well. Now, you know what? 02:24:20.230 --> 02:24:23.490 I will be contrarian on this one, so we're not disagreeing on everything. 02:24:23.690 --> 02:24:25.570 I will say yes. I will say yes. 02:24:25.650 --> 02:24:25.910 Okay. 02:24:26.110 --> 02:24:26.870 They will get engaged. 02:24:26.890 --> 02:24:29.090 Yes. Yes. Okay. All right. 02:24:29.250 --> 02:24:31.510 And yes, they will get engaged. 02:24:31.730 --> 02:24:32.070 Okay. 02:24:32.430 --> 02:24:38.230 And then finally, we already talked Jimmy Carter. Any other major celebrity deaths in 2025? 02:24:39.230 --> 02:24:45.650 Okay. So to try to pad my numbers, maybe. I will predict that Trump will die in 2025. 02:24:46.270 --> 02:24:49.090 Since you earlier predicted he would still be 02:24:49.090 --> 02:24:51.910 president then correct and i i remembered the 02:24:51.910 --> 02:24:55.630 name of the movie weekend at bernie's ah yes that's 02:24:55.630 --> 02:24:58.350 because i was saying they could carry him around like weekend at bernie's yeah 02:24:58.350 --> 02:25:02.010 i was saying like that movie where they carried around the dead guy you know 02:25:02.010 --> 02:25:06.030 so uh which i have not never seen the movie by the way but i know that your 02:25:06.030 --> 02:25:14.690 list it's on the list okay and i will undoubtedly add it again now um just so it doubles, 02:25:15.650 --> 02:25:21.190 whatever chance it has of coming up weekend at Bernie's, 02:25:22.350 --> 02:25:27.410 and there's apparently a sequel to although you know what are they there is a sequel that is. 02:25:27.410 --> 02:25:30.670 Right the sequel is awful I've got to say you. 02:25:30.670 --> 02:25:35.710 Know okay major celebrity deaths you said Trump you have anybody else in mind. 02:25:36.650 --> 02:25:42.830 Major celebrity deaths who am I trying uh King Charles. 02:25:43.750 --> 02:25:45.270 Ooh. Bold. 02:25:45.650 --> 02:25:46.170 Yeah. 02:25:47.290 --> 02:25:58.990 Ed's okay. I am going to where's continue without disabling the stupid ad blocker. Let's see. 02:25:59.490 --> 02:26:08.370 Oldest celebrities as of sometime recently, Mel Brooks, David Attenborough, 02:26:08.930 --> 02:26:11.030 Jean Shalett, Alan Greenspan, 02:26:12.330 --> 02:26:16.430 Dick Van Dyke, Jimmy Carter, even Marie St. 02:26:16.430 --> 02:26:19.430 I'm not predicting I don't want to wish any of those people. 02:26:19.430 --> 02:26:20.830 To be dead I mean hell. 02:26:20.830 --> 02:26:27.210 So taking from these before I even brought up this list I was going to say Dick 02:26:27.210 --> 02:26:33.790 Van Dyke although he's like really old but he's been on TV a couple times recently 02:26:33.790 --> 02:26:38.110 like within the last couple weeks he looks pretty good I know yeah, 02:26:39.410 --> 02:26:47.110 I will predict specifically Dick Van Dyke will live through 2025 okay I will 02:26:47.110 --> 02:26:51.270 say, I will predict David Attenborough won't make it. 02:26:52.390 --> 02:26:58.510 Alan Greenspan won't make it. And we already said Jimmy Carter's not going to make it. 02:26:58.670 --> 02:27:01.090 I'll stop there. Those are my predictions. 02:27:01.830 --> 02:27:02.390 Okay. 02:27:02.750 --> 02:27:07.130 And look, I predicted a couple people, old people, in their late 90s, 02:27:07.190 --> 02:27:11.110 I predicted they will make it another year. So I'm being positive in that way. 02:27:11.410 --> 02:27:11.990 Okay. 02:27:12.610 --> 02:27:13.470 You got any more? 02:27:14.170 --> 02:27:15.610 Uh, do I have any more. 02:27:15.770 --> 02:27:19.570 Any more celebrity deaths or, or, or who will live? 02:27:19.970 --> 02:27:24.170 Uh, I, I predict Jared Kushner will die. 02:27:24.610 --> 02:27:28.670 Oh, okay. Cause I was going to say my next, the next thing that we did last 02:27:28.670 --> 02:27:33.470 year was any young people that would die in the next year. 02:27:33.790 --> 02:27:37.350 So you're predicting Kushner as a relatively young one. 02:27:38.830 --> 02:27:44.310 Let me predict on the relatively young side and keeping sort of in that general 02:27:44.310 --> 02:27:45.550 realm of things, Matt Gaetz. 02:27:46.250 --> 02:27:47.410 Oh, I like that one. 02:27:48.010 --> 02:27:51.950 Now, now that he is out of Congress and no longer in running for DOJ, 02:27:52.250 --> 02:27:54.930 he'll go back hard on the cocaine and something will happen. 02:27:55.670 --> 02:27:59.410 Okay. Matt Gaetz. I like that one. Okay. All right. That sounds good. 02:27:59.510 --> 02:28:03.430 Oh, should I be more? I will first one prediction. 02:28:03.910 --> 02:28:07.290 Matt Gaetz will not live the year. Prediction number two, if, 02:28:07.490 --> 02:28:10.410 and this is a conditional, so only if he actually dies, 02:28:10.650 --> 02:28:19.230 my second prediction will be, my second prediction will be that Matt Gaetz will 02:28:19.230 --> 02:28:23.350 in fact die high on cocaine in the arms of a hooker. 02:28:23.350 --> 02:28:27.610 I like it. That sounds totally, you know, it sounds totally reasonable. 02:28:27.850 --> 02:28:33.250 I just think that sounds like exactly, you know, what the hell it should be like. 02:28:33.550 --> 02:28:37.210 I mean, that sounds exactly how it should be, as a matter of fact. 02:28:38.210 --> 02:28:41.170 And with that, I think we are done, Yvonne. 02:28:42.350 --> 02:28:48.790 I think we are done. Yeah. Hey, everybody. First of all, thanks again to Bruce, 02:28:49.150 --> 02:28:53.150 Ed and John for contributing questions to this year's prediction show. 02:28:53.150 --> 02:28:54.310 We really appreciate it. 02:28:54.670 --> 02:28:59.070 And thanks. And Alex and Alex, who was about to hit me. If I don't mention him. 02:29:00.700 --> 02:29:05.280 And me, and me. I contributed a bunch of questions as well. Okay. 02:29:05.800 --> 02:29:10.420 As my son is manhandling me. Okay, we're wrapping it up. Say it really, 02:29:10.640 --> 02:29:12.820 type it really fast, whatever you want to type. No? 02:29:13.340 --> 02:29:19.400 My head. Okay, we're, anyway, thanks everybody for joining us again. 02:29:19.760 --> 02:29:25.500 And you know the deal, curmudgeons-corner.com to see all of our recent shows, 02:29:25.780 --> 02:29:29.860 or our entire archive of shows, transcripts of recent shows. 02:29:29.860 --> 02:29:38.220 All of the ways to contact us links to our YouTube where the video goes and stuff. 02:29:39.360 --> 02:29:43.540 And yeah, I have not linked to our TikTok. We're posting highlights on TikTok 02:29:43.540 --> 02:29:45.640 until they die, if they die. 02:29:46.160 --> 02:29:50.580 And if they if they are still around after January 20th, I will consider adding 02:29:50.580 --> 02:29:52.080 the link, a link to our website. 02:29:52.420 --> 02:29:56.460 And also, of course, a link to our Patreon where we can you can give us money. 02:29:56.880 --> 02:30:00.160 if you win the mega millions, which you won't because I will, 02:30:00.280 --> 02:30:03.840 but if you win the mega millions, feel free to give some of it to us. 02:30:04.560 --> 02:30:08.000 And we've gone long enough. I don't think we need a highlight from the Slack. 02:30:08.160 --> 02:30:11.520 If you, if you donate to the Patreon, we'll give you, we'll send you a postcard. 02:30:11.680 --> 02:30:15.300 We'll mention you on the show. We'll send you a mug, whatever at different levels. 02:30:15.720 --> 02:30:18.840 And we will invite you to our, our curmudgeons course Slack, 02:30:19.040 --> 02:30:22.620 where Yvonne and I are talking through throughout the week with a bunch of our 02:30:22.620 --> 02:30:26.360 listeners and yeah, no highlight from the Slack this time, right Yvonne? 02:30:26.460 --> 02:30:29.780 Uh well if you. 02:30:29.780 --> 02:30:32.840 Don't have to we've gone on a long time. 02:30:32.840 --> 02:30:37.240 But if you have something that's burning you up let me see we got something 02:30:37.240 --> 02:30:44.200 that's burning me up I you know anything that's burning me up uh, 02:30:45.160 --> 02:30:47.920 uh uh uh, 02:30:52.420 --> 02:30:59.640 i i oh oh that somebody thought that an app that generated recipes with ai was 02:30:59.640 --> 02:31:06.860 a good idea and it it created this delicious look looking spicy roasted cat 02:31:06.860 --> 02:31:11.200 with sweet sweet chili glaze well. 02:31:11.200 --> 02:31:13.720 As we know they're eating the cats they're eating the dogs. 02:31:13.720 --> 02:31:17.880 Well i mean that's what once you adds, you know, those ingredients that, 02:31:17.900 --> 02:31:21.780 you know, it's, it's, yeah, makes it quite more appetizing. 02:31:22.400 --> 02:31:28.000 Okay. Thank you for that, Yvonne. Very good. The last thing to say is that next 02:31:28.000 --> 02:31:34.860 week will be another one of our special shows next week absent some huge event. 02:31:34.860 --> 02:31:38.700 Like a few years ago, we had to like delay it because of January 6th, 02:31:38.800 --> 02:31:45.920 2021, but next week will be our review of our 2024 predictions to see how we 02:31:45.920 --> 02:31:48.360 did. And so tune into that as well. 02:31:49.080 --> 02:31:52.800 Hey, everybody have a great week and a happy new year. 02:31:52.980 --> 02:32:00.020 And we'll be here for our predictions review next week. And then the week after that for more new stuff. 02:32:00.260 --> 02:32:06.900 And then by the end of January, we'll be into the second Trump presidency. So there you go. 02:32:07.520 --> 02:32:11.840 Okay. I'm going to, I'm going to hit the exit music now. Goodbye. 02:32:12.400 --> 02:32:12.760 Bye. 02:32:41.800 --> 02:32:47.460 You folks listening can't see but for the last few minutes as i've been trying to close out the show, 02:32:48.100 --> 02:32:51.200 yvonne's been changing the background behind him 02:32:51.200 --> 02:32:56.680 every few seconds you know got jack nicholson then we've got lucy from peanuts 02:32:56.680 --> 02:33:01.360 then we've got various buildings all kinds of other random crap and i've been 02:33:01.360 --> 02:33:08.640 having to keep myself from laughing as he's doing this so just thought i'd tell you guys now Anyway, 02:33:09.260 --> 02:33:15.080 I'm hitting stop now once he stops laughing. 02:33:15.420 --> 02:33:17.900 There we go. Bye, folks.