Sam: Testing one, two, three. There we go. Hey folks, this is Sam from the future.
Sam: I'm recording this intro message on November 7th at 1537 UTC,
Sam: but just wanted to let you know,
Sam: as we mentioned on the show last week, we recorded a curmudgeons corner sort
Sam: of live show reaction to election results as they came in.
Sam: And by the time you're listening to this, I'm sure you know the results of that election.
Sam: President Trump handily won re-election. The Republicans took over the Senate.
Sam: The results in the House haven't fully been official yet. The Democrats still
Sam: have some hope there, but it's not looking good for them, to be honest.
Sam: It's probably going to be the Republicans taking the House.
Sam: But those are the overall results. but Yvonne and I recorded a six and a half
Sam: hour live show reaction.
Sam: And, you know, Yvonne, Yvonne's basically like, I have no energy left to talk
Sam: about any of this stuff anymore.
Sam: And, you know, frankly, we already did six and a half hours.
Sam: That's, that's a lot of stuff.
Sam: So what we're going to do here, I was going to put the live show at the end
Sam: of any new show we recorded this week anyway, but I think we're just going to
Sam: leave that live show as the show.
Sam: So this I'll be including like, it's not going to be the whole six and a half
Sam: hours because I'm going to run it through software that like eliminates like
Sam: gaps where nobody's talking and stuff like that. So it'll be shorter.
Sam: I don't know how much shorter, but I'm not actually going to go through and
Sam: like carefully edit it or anything.
Sam: I'm just going to dump it into my software that takes out the ums and ahs and
Sam: takes out the silences and it is what it is. So you'll get to sort of hear the
Sam: slightly abbreviated version of our live show.
Sam: If you actually attended the live show, there were about eight people listening
Sam: and commenting and interacting with us as we recorded, which was a lot of fun.
Sam: Then obviously you've heard a lot of this already. So maybe you skip this.
Sam: We will be back for our full sort of normal reactions and talking about things
Sam: next week. Give a little bit more time to digest the results and the implications
Sam: and all of this kind of stuff.
Sam: But I think, you know, rather than record a brand new normal show,
Sam: we're just going to let the live stream be our show this week because,
Sam: you know, it was a lot anyway.
Sam: That's the idea. So folks, here's our live stream recorded starting at just
Sam: about zero UTC on November 6th, 2024.
Sam: So election night, basically, and Tuesday night in the US. Here we go.
Sam: Hello, everyone. Let's wait till we got the thingy and do the checks.
Sam: Okay, we are here. My live stream checker thing isn't working.
Sam: So I'm gonna have to manually tell curmudgeon's corner chat that we're live.
Sam: And Yvonne's late. Yvonne is late.
Sam: um posts copy post.
Sam: Okay so everybody as this goes through and i know there's nobody actually here
Sam: on the live stream yet yvonne's not even here but we'll just be reacting to
Sam: the various things as we go So there have been two states called so far, Vermont and,
Sam: or three, Vermont, Kentucky, and Indiana, it looks like, from various places.
Sam: No surprises there. I'm actually working in another window in getting my little
Sam: spreadsheet set up so I can track the, you know, when we actually get any swing
Sam: states called, how that reduces the range of possibilities.
Sam: But it'll be a little while in the evening till we get that, I think.
Sam: Hello, Yvonne. Oh, welcome.
Sam: We've had a few states called already, but none that are surprises.
Sam: Kentucky, Indiana, and Vermont.
Ivan: I see that. Yes.
Sam: I'm in the other window setting up my little spreadsheet, which I didn't do
Sam: beforehand to track these as they get called.
Ivan: But I am very glum at this moment. It's not that I'm just not.
Ivan: It's it's not that I I I'm just I I'm I'm dreading just.
Sam: Yeah, I mean, I am.
Ivan: I am. I am just not.
Sam: Let's talk about like, I mean, let me let me throw this in.
Ivan: Come on, you stupid thing. Stop doing that.
Sam: So what do you think right now? Like right now, I am cautiously optimistic.
Sam: I feel like there's been a lot of stuff building in the last week that seems
Sam: like semi-evidence that the polls have been underestimating Harris.
Sam: On the other hand, I don't feel like I can trust my feelings on any of that stuff.
Ivan: Here is my whole problem is that it's just.
Sam: You know, yes, yes.
Ivan: It's just, you know, it's very, very, you know, the results are, you know.
Sam: Are, yes.
Ivan: It's just that the outcome of this is very binary.
Sam: Yes, it is. Like, if it really is as close as everyone thinks it might be,
Sam: if it's not a blowout by one side or the other,
Sam: then it's just going to be like a few votes on one side or the other makes a
Sam: massive difference for the rest of our lives.
Ivan: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, yeah, and I guess that's it.
Ivan: So I just, I don't know. I, you know, so I don't know.
Ivan: I'm just, I don't know. My emotions the whole day ran the gamut.
Ivan: I'm not going to, you know, I was feeling, I said, I felt surprisingly not stressed.
Ivan: Like I will say like a two in the afternoon, but as the hour that polls were
Ivan: to close, started approaching my level of anxiety grew exponentially.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: And so, you know, I, yeah, I, I.
Sam: I, I, I, I'm using all of this right now.
Ivan: And so that's, yeah.
Sam: You need your phone located. I'll locate your phone. Hi.
Sam: yeah i mean and i i've i've.
Ivan: I will say that i i there is a surprise i mean you know we're talking about
Ivan: that trump was ahead in florida by it's beeping by a lot and right now it's
Ivan: 51 48 in florida and the first returns that are in.
Sam: Well yeah i mean you can't.
Ivan: I'm first first returns are first returns i know and first returns for first
Ivan: returns he can't really you know,
Ivan: but well i'm not i'm not saying you know trump is winning florida i'm just just
Ivan: i mean i i think yeah i i don't know who the fuck knows why the fuck am i i mean this is just,
Ivan: i hate this uh yeah i'm just i i i i i i this this this whole thing has just been,
Ivan: so fucking trading to get to this point. You know,
Ivan: I'm really probably channeling the anxiety of millions right now at this moment
Ivan: where it's just fuck, I mean, what is going to be the outcome?
Ivan: You know, what the fuck is going to be the outcome?
Sam: And look, the vibes for Harris in the last week have been good,
Sam: but you know, you can't trust vibes.
Sam: No, that's the thing. I mean, the, the, the story of the last week has been
Sam: that the Harris folks are like two weeks ago.
Sam: The Harris folks were all sort of sort of depressed Democrats were wetting their
Sam: pants. As they say, everyone was nervous.
Sam: The poll numbers were bad, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
Sam: blah. And then in the last week, vibe wise, that reversed and the Harris people
Sam: got all excited and the Trump people started getting it.
Ivan: But vibes don't win, you know, vibes don't win, you know, votes win.
Ivan: So I don't know, man, you know, it's.
Sam: And people are trying to read tea leaves into the early vote numbers, the attendance.
Sam: And that's never been a good indicator.
Ivan: Of anything you know i mean it's it's you know so we sit here and we you know
Ivan: we're here a little bit earlier than that that we thought because we we're idiots.
Sam: I mean well i i am an idiot i i had it fixed in my head fixed in my head the
Sam: week we changed time was next weekend,
Sam: I don't know why I had that stuck in my head because I knew they moved it because
Sam: it used to be the last year.
Sam: It used to be earlier and they moved it later, but they didn't move it as far
Sam: as I thought they moved it. And I was just like confused.
Sam: And so I said the time wrong on last week's curmudgeon score.
Sam: I said the zero UTC correct, but I converted it into Eastern correct.
Ivan: Yeah, we converted it to Eastern time incorrectly.
Sam: I said 5 p.m. where it's really, well, 5 p.m. Pacific where it's really 4 p.m. Pacific.
Sam: and you know that that translates accordingly to whatever three hours later is on the east coast.
Ivan: I'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i think i'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i i i really i'm just.
Sam: By the way people on the live stream feel free to introduce yourself in the comments oh shit right.
Ivan: That that yeah wait hold on i have to go on the i have to open that link as well.
Sam: Was one of them so that you can view our own? Oh, so you can see the chat.
Ivan: Oh, so you can see the chat.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, look, this is a live stream of us reacting to results
Sam: as they happen. So there's going to be a lot of like nothing.
Sam: And, and actually like I I'm, I'm, I'm figuring like I've got,
Sam: I've got my four up screen of like the, the four news channels on my phone,
Sam: like in front of me, like I've got, I've got four screens of computer,
Sam: but YouTube TV on the computer doesn't do the four up. so i've got the four.
Ivan: Up on my phone yeah it's so weird there are choices on that i know i i mean
Ivan: they're both baffling fucking choices but.
Sam: Here's the thing is i have the volume way down so like i'm not actually hearing
Sam: if they say something important you know so so oh hey bruce is on.
Ivan: Yeah bruce and bob bruce and bob hi both.
Sam: Of you and uh yeah go oliver yeah right right bruce.
Ivan: I think he got some votes somewhere i saw oh.
Sam: I'm sure i i predict he will be the worst performing libertarian in 20 years.
Ivan: Wow well i i did see some i i can't remember where i was which state i was looking
Ivan: at but they were showing whatchamacallit stein had gotten some votes somewhere
Ivan: uh let's see i think was in kentucky i'm.
Sam: Sure she's getting.
Ivan: Votes i mean no no but it wasn't no it wasn't stein no i it was actually rfk
Ivan: jr and i'm like you know he got like 20 votes or something and i'm just like you know uh hi hi.
Sam: I am cuckoo too i am cuckoo too wants to know are orlando's numbers really better
Sam: for trump this is richard.
Ivan: Ah yeah richard as far as i went in i said the answer is no i'm looking at it
Ivan: right now but here's a problem look you can't look too much into these numbers
Ivan: they don't consider mail-in ballots yet i thought the mail-in.
Sam: Was the first ones that is that in florida are they last in.
Ivan: Some states they do the mail-in first and some they add them last so and and
Ivan: every precinct has to report numbers tonight, still.
Ivan: I mean, I'm looking at it like right now and it's saying Orange County is 5841.
Ivan: So I don't I don't recall off the top of my head what that number was the last time.
Ivan: I don't have it here, but but but certainly that's, you know,
Ivan: so that's now that they don't they don't they add those at the end.
Ivan: So now now there's a lot of the tabulation.
Ivan: the tabulation that the florida pulls in
Ivan: large part is electronic i mean they they they
Ivan: calculate and scan everything with these
Ivan: machines and so they they yeah so now because you could because you could deposit
Ivan: like mail-in ballots i remember just up until today right so yeah so i don't
Ivan: i I don't think that's got that in there, but like what we were just mentioning,
Ivan: you shouldn't read much into anything into these first early numbers yet,
Ivan: even though you've got a lot of like returns already in.
Ivan: So I don't know. I will say that.
Ivan: I don't know. I don't know.
Ivan: Um you know but but look getting florida was i mean anybody you know in this
Ivan: election cycle the way things had been going i mean a couple of cycles is always
Ivan: a stretch i mean it's nothing there's no polls that really indicated that florida
Ivan: was i mean that that harris had i mean We were counting on,
Ivan: an error, but Florida polls were not great.
Ivan: So, I don't know.
Ivan: Do I seem happy?
Sam: I'm not sure. You seem stressed, which is understandable.
Sam: Like you said earlier, I think everybody in the country was,
Sam: yeah, like regardless of which side you're on, you're probably stressed about
Sam: this. Like what's going to happen where?
Sam: Like, well, I don't know. It's like if you've bought into the idea on either
Sam: side that, oh, we got this, then maybe you're feeling good right now.
Sam: And maybe as the night progresses, you'll feel less.
Sam: So maybe we'll feel less. So, but yeah.
Ivan: I'm going to look at the answer.
Ivan: What was the result in it in Orange County showed 61 38 the last time.
Ivan: And so let's see. What does it say? Oh, why did this thing move on me?
Ivan: Right now, it is showing, from what's been reported, Orange County, 58, 40, 41.
Ivan: So it's close, but it's only 60% of the vote in.
Ivan: Osceola County, 51, 48, which is just south.
Ivan: That one actually, right now, does look better. But again, this is a problem
Ivan: where you've still got so much of the vote.
Ivan: outstanding that it's no I don't I don't know so,
Ivan: I don't know. And one of the things about anything that happened late in the
Ivan: election with Florida specifically, which made it very difficult for Florida,
Ivan: is that if you weren't registered 30 days before the election,
Ivan: anything that happened late wasn't, you know, you couldn't go and register late.
Ivan: That just wasn't a possibility.
Ivan: So that was something that was definitely not a possibility.
Sam: So um so i finished
Sam: i finished my little spreadsheet i probably should have done it in google
Sam: sheets so i could share it but i did it in excel
Sam: because i'm dumb and so just as the starting point like what i've what i've
Sam: done is taken basically only the ones that were classified as weak in my averages
Sam: the ones under five percent which in the end and it varied over the course of
Sam: time but in the end ended up being exactly the seven states that everybody is
Sam: talking about everything else sorted it out to the sides.
Sam: But that leaves us at, because the only states called right now are completely
Sam: unsurprising states, Vermont, Indiana, and Kentucky, none of which anybody thought was in contention.
Sam: So we still have the range of possibilities, depending on how these seven states
Sam: go right now, are from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86. You know, so.
Ivan: We've got to narrow down.
Sam: Yeah. And like, you know, that won't narrow down until the,
Sam: one of those seven states gets called, which may be a while yet.
Sam: But in the meantime, I think what we're looking for is from the other states
Sam: that aren't one of the core seven, can we gather hints of what's happening based
Sam: on is that, are there states,
Sam: you know, whether it's a red or blue state, is it redder or bluer than expected,
Sam: you know, in terms of what's happening?
Sam: now the problem is with those kinds of stuff like okay indiana has been called
Sam: that doesn't mean we can look at indiana and get any sense of is it redder or
Sam: bluer than we thought it was going to be correct because it's just they can
Sam: call it early because right because they don't flow out.
Ivan: Right but they don't expect well but they don't expect that whatever the end result.
Sam: Is going to.
Ivan: Be even if it's narrower is going to.
Sam: Matter right like right for the for the call that
Sam: like my estimate has indiana at 14.4 percent
Sam: in my average right now but all they're
Sam: all they are saying when they declare it done is it's
Sam: definitely going to be trump like they're not gonna say like
Sam: no they're not gonna be like oh yeah indiana is you know it's coming in 18 instead
Sam: of 14 so trump's doing really well or or the other way around i mean maybe we
Sam: can dig into some of those numbers
Sam: but the thing is those numbers are going to be slow to come in too.
Sam: It's easy to tell if a majorly red state is going to stay red or stay blue.
Sam: The things that might give some hints are if they don't call states like Ohio fairly quickly.
Sam: Ohio is, it's not like Wyoming.
Sam: It's red, but not that red. And so, but they still should be able to,
Sam: if Ohio, like my average has Ohio at 7.8.
Sam: If Ohio is anything like 7.8, they should be able to call it really quickly after Ohio closes.
Sam: If it takes them a while.
Ivan: Bruce is asking the question about, and I think you were just mentioning it,
Ivan: that it's too soon to tell whether they are tracking close to the polls yet.
Ivan: What the information they have provided is not enough to say.
Ivan: because we just know they just know they're
Ivan: they're going to win i mean if you look at indiana which has been called for
Ivan: for trump only 15 percent of the
Ivan: vote is in right i mean it's just you know but which they don't expect scientists
Ivan: you know right so it's just not yeah we just can't tell yet i mean what what
Ivan: it means so now i mean we just really can't tell what it means.
Sam: So what's your favorite site this time around to track these numbers as they come in? New York?
Ivan: Well, I've got, I have three of them up right now.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: So I've got this, you know, for, I got on one screen here, I got Decision Desk HQ.
Sam: That's a good one. That's a good one.
Ivan: I've got the New York Times to the right. And I've got the Washington Post over here.
Ivan: i have a bloomberg up on
Ivan: one screen but they pretty much feed off i'm pretty sure off decision desk so
Ivan: uh it's just more for the video news of what's going on so basically those are
Ivan: the ones that i'm pretty much looking at right now uh but i i don't know i just feel sick.
Sam: Yes oh oh let's see how.
Ivan: Has decision.
Sam: Desk called more they've they've
Sam: got uh trumpet 28 already instead of some teens. So are they calling?
Ivan: I see 28. South Carolina.
Sam: South Carolina. Let me move South Carolina into the column. Another non-surprise.
Ivan: Right. Yeah, they called South Carolina, yeah.
Sam: Decision Desk HQ, by the way, usually calls things faster than almost anybody else.
Sam: Not always, but a lot of the times. But they haven't gotten them wrong,
Sam: but they're more aggressive about calling things relatively quickly.
Ivan: Yeah.
Ivan: my witty repartee today is fantastic I mean right now Georgia accounting is,
Ivan: Florida accounting is going pretty quickly they're at 64% but I know that there's
Ivan: a lot of votes that come in late from some of the bigger counties that's just
Ivan: been historically the case,
Ivan: but we just don't Thank you.
Ivan: But it's, you know, like, see, or some of the bigger counties,
Ivan: like Orange County has 60% of the votes in Palm Beach County,
Ivan: 74% of the vote in, like right now,
Ivan: Broward has 72%, Miami has 77%.
Ivan: now so i mean it's 64 percent of the vote in florida right now so but i mean
Ivan: it's 53 46 to trump i mean it's not that's that that's kind of like in line
Ivan: with a lot of the pollings polls so,
Ivan: uh yeah i'm not not not does new.
Sam: York times have a needle this time.
Ivan: No they did not part of it had to do with i don't know it failed.
Sam: Utterly the last couple of times.
Ivan: Well no they were talking about part of it that they were had
Ivan: been working on setting it up but the tech guild strike that they had had impacted
Ivan: them oh right uh and setting it up and they said that they were going to try
Ivan: to see if they could do it but but that they maybe not you know it it It seemed
Ivan: like that might not be the case.
Ivan: So as far as I checked multiple times, and yeah, they don't seem to be gearing up for the need.
Sam: Right. So we have a few polls closing in just a few seconds.
Ivan: Well, we got a full 730. We got the time coming in right now.
Sam: Oh, yeah. I had, I had a nice little page somewhere with like all of the closing times.
Ivan: I had it up somewhere and I forgot where the hell I put it.
Sam: Yeah. I'm finding it here. Here it is.
Sam: I'll share, I'll share it in the, the chat for everybody. I just have to, of course I, here we go.
Sam: You know, I hate how they go. We can now project that the race in North Carolina is too close to call.
Ivan: Thank you. Thank you so much. That's so, that's so.
Sam: Uh, it's, or worse when it's just, they can project it's too early to call.
Sam: Like that's not a projection.
Sam: Just say you can't project North Carolina yet.
Ivan: Yeah, that would be nice.
Ivan: 7.30 p.m. Poll closings. Four states.
Ivan: North Carolina. Who else? I don't know. Look at the map. North Carolina.
Sam: So Bruce mentions initial CNN exit poll. Georgia independent voters favor Trump over Harris.
Ivan: Oh, let's see.
Sam: My take of just looking.
Ivan: Exit polls have been terrible like the last few years. It's been one of those. with it.
Ivan: I mean, I'm not saying that they may be wrong like right now,
Ivan: but it's just, it's just never, I mean, it's just not been a good indicator.
Sam: Well, yeah. And just poll average wise. And I put this in my latest blog post
Sam: on electiongraphs.com that I posted like less than an hour ago.
Sam: But like, if you'd look at the trends in each state, rather than looking at
Sam: just the final average, just to see where it's been hovering,
Sam: I would still give Georgia to Trump.
Sam: If there is not a systematic polling error,
Sam: if there's a systematic polling error that everything's underestimating Harris
Sam: or even everything's underestimating Trump,
Sam: it looks like Georgia was just averaging a very narrow Trump lead consistently
Sam: for the last couple months.
Sam: so the all the only way harris wins georgia is
Sam: if there's a systematic error and it the polling was just missing some harris
Sam: voting voting like the the the close ones the ones that in the end like if you
Sam: look at those trends the three blue wall states all really look too close to call unless okay.
Ivan: We got another state called you're gonna be it's a shocker i know.
Sam: Okay i'm ready to log it.
Ivan: Trump when it's west virginia.
Sam: Oh my goodness i never ever
Sam: ever would have guessed that yeah stunning
Sam: we uh so we have still not changed the
Sam: overall picture like every
Sam: call is an expected call and that's probably going to be
Sam: like the first couple hours of this is every call is an expected
Sam: call like because anything that's at all surprising even
Sam: if the initial things look like that they're going
Sam: to hold off until they're really really sure you know like if there are indications
Sam: that wait a second iowa really is going to be blue like the seltzer poll said
Sam: they're not going to actually call it the first time it looks like it might be blue and.
Ivan: Another non-surprising call they're calling that the senate that the west virginia
Ivan: democratic Senate seat is going to, you know, the Republican, whatever his name is.
Sam: Yeah. No one was surprised by that. I mean, as we've said for years on the show,
Sam: like the fact that Manchin held that seat as long as he did was somewhat of a miracle.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah.
Ivan: So, um, so those are the only ones that see any returns on North Carolina.
Ivan: I don't see any, any numbers feeding into anybody here yet. North Carolina.
Ivan: No, no.
Sam: One thing about Georgia and Jim justice in West Virginia was his name.
Ivan: Yeah. Whatever fucking name is. It gives a fuck. Sure.
Ivan: Cause one of the things that many were concerned.
Ivan: and polls had shown this before is about
Ivan: it and it's it really you know
Ivan: talks about what the demographic change that's happened in florida especially
Ivan: with many new arrivals into miami is that right now trump is winning miami um
Ivan: 55 44 now palm beach county where i live he's losing and he's losing broward
Ivan: county which is in the middle like by a wide margin 60 40,
Ivan: But that had been, you know,
Ivan: data had shown that he had the possibility of capturing Miami-Dade.
Ivan: And right now, with 80% of the vote in, it's showing he's up 55-44.
Ivan: Like Broward County is the polar opposite, which is like 60, 30, 90 the other way.
Ivan: And, you know, where I live is like 52, 47 right now, based on the polling that's
Ivan: been, has been reported.
Sam: So, so Harris is leaving North Carolina at the moment with 2% in.
Ivan: Oh, well, yeah, well, it doesn't mean anything.
Sam: No, it doesn't mean anything yet. because and i
Sam: mean i'm sure if i was actually listening to the talking heads on
Sam: the various channels like i see steve kornacki on msnbc and
Sam: uh what what's his name uh king was it king on cnn i
Sam: forget but they're going through their maps and
Sam: pointing county by county and like where are the returns in and when or when
Sam: they aren't and they would be telling you a little bit about like you know are
Sam: the places that are in so far is this what we're expecting to see from those
Sam: places or is it a surprise but i've got the volume down pretty low so i can't
Sam: actually tell what they're saying well.
Ivan: I mean well you're asking about that i'm looking at like wake county which is raleigh.
Sam: I mean it's.
Ivan: 70 30 harris like right now.
Sam: Well right the quick but are all the places that are returning votes so far
Sam: north carolina the cities basically yeah yeah.
Ivan: Basically if you look at the map the the the places that you've got is really
Ivan: raleigh and the biggest one that's that's returned as Raleigh and a whole bunch
Ivan: of actually other small places.
Ivan: Actually, a lot of other small places, and they're all showing blue.
Ivan: And these are a lot of small, smaller areas.
Ivan: Yeah. Wow. Okay.
Ivan: I mean, yeah. I mean, like Watauga County, pretty small county right now,
Ivan: only 4%, but 60-40 to Harris.
Ivan: So yeah, you've got that going on.
Ivan: No, Virginia with 8% of the vote in Harris is ahead 65 to 32%. I mean, it's...
Ivan: I mean, Virginia is one that Harris is expected to take.
Sam: Oh, what? There we go. I was wondering why my electoral vote count of what was called was off by one.
Sam: And it was because I eyeballed wrong.
Sam: And instead of moving South Carolina to the called category,
Sam: I moved Missouri. Let me fix that.
Ivan: Okay. Well, that would, yeah.
Sam: Now everything's good. Not that
Sam: either one of those would have been surprising states in any way, but.
Sam: so let me look at that poll closing times
Sam: when is the first that we actually think is gonna i mean well florida but like
Sam: when's the first real swing state it's it's i mean north carolina is the first
Sam: one that's a swing state that's open and obviously they're starting to trickle
Sam: in results uh well like 7 30.
Ivan: North carolina ohio.
Sam: Yeah it's early eight o'clock it's eight o'clock 8 p.m. we get Pennsylvania
Sam: and Michigan, and those will be big.
Sam: But those are also ones where you get like these weird effects of like,
Sam: like in Pennsylvania, like they can't, they couldn't start counting the mail-in
Sam: ballots until polls close.
Sam: So they haven't even started that. So like some other states,
Sam: like as soon as polls close, they dump the results for all the mail-in ballots.
Sam: Pennsylvania can't do that. Pennsylvania starts counting at that point.
Sam: Okay. Bob says, ABC says Harris isn't doing as well in Florida as Biden did, at least so far.
Sam: I got a thing on Twitter. Trump is not Twitter on Mastodon.
Sam: Trump is underperforming in Georgia, a red County Trump down versus a blue County
Sam: Harris up recalled Trump lost Georgia in 2020. So he has to improve his numbers.
Sam: Otherwise he loses again.
Sam: And they're like passing along some looks like some maps from MSNBC.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: So we'll see.
Sam: I mean, actual count wise though, Trump is still ahead in Georgia.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, but if you look at where it is being reported, Georgia,
Ivan: it's mostly very rural areas, like right now.
Sam: The opposite of what you were saying in North Carolina, where the cities are reporting first.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah. You had like Raleigh reporting first. Yeah, so that was like the thing.
Ivan: I mean, the biggest one was like around Raleigh, where you had that first, so that impacted.
Ivan: But yeah, Georgia is totally the opposite at this point. Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, the interesting thing is that, as I'm looking at these.
Ivan: yeah i mean i don't know florida not looking at the end i forget about florida
Ivan: florida's like i i would right now just don't don't even bother just put it
Ivan: in the trump i would at this.
Sam: Point yeah 75 percent of votes in 54 45 right now yeah.
Ivan: Yeah it's not happening.
Sam: That that's like a bigger that like just in terms of whether it's on i was it's around.
Ivan: The same as the last it's it's looking pretty close.
Sam: Well yeah but i'm just saying the poll averages were just over five percent
Sam: right now so if it's a 10 margin it's he's doing better than the polling said correct.
Ivan: Yeah yeah yeah.
Sam: Oh that's nice some county some county in georgia has gotten seven bomb threats
Sam: in the last hour that's nice at the vote you know the the voting office or whatever,
Sam: always lovely they are extending you know in the places affected by bomb threats
Sam: they're giving them more time to vote.
Ivan: No I would,
Ivan: Well, Ohio with 4% of the vote in, it's not surprising right now. Trump's ahead.
Ivan: So, ah, it's almost a surprise.
Sam: I'm playing around with the interfaces for New York Times, Washington Post,
Sam: and Decision Desk. I don't like the Washington Post one.
Ivan: Yeah, it's not great.
Sam: Just the UI on it kind of sucks.
Ivan: So far, the one that I've used that has the best UI is New York Times.
Sam: Yeah, I would agree with that. DDHQ does have a president win chance percentage that's updating live.
Sam: They have Trump at 64.3% right now. Hey, which is really close to where I had him.
Sam: My final average, 63.6%, or not average.
Sam: That was from my uniform states model was at that.
Sam: So, ta-da.
Sam: Let's see, does New York Times have anything like that? You know,
Sam: that's what their needle would have been, but they don't have.
Ivan: Right, but they, no needle. Well, we really got 15 minutes before,
Ivan: really, we get an important data dump
Ivan: of anything that is going to be consequential right now at this point.
Sam: Where's the, how do we get to the main stupid election page?
Sam: I'm just on the homepage of the New York Times right now, and they've got all the key information.
Ivan: No, there is a link. If you go to election, it clicked on president.
Sam: Looked on president. Okay. There we go. Ah, yes. Same thing, but bigger. Nice.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And let's see. Yeah. Florida is looking like a decisive win for Trump.
Sam: Uh, so the one thing we can say about Florida is that the fact that Florida
Sam: is not looking like it's where its polls are, is that,
Sam: We're probably not talking the scenario where there's a blowout.
Sam: I think we're looking more like that. It's going to be a nail biter after all.
Ivan: Oh yeah. Um, I think, well.
Sam: One thing, unless it's the Trump blowout, the Trump blowout could still be indicated by this.
Ivan: Well, here's one thing. It also, I will say it, the Harris campaign never actively campaigned here.
Ivan: They, they, they, They did not.
Sam: It was like one visit. They came once.
Ivan: I mean, and I have to say that, yeah.
Sam: They did a little bit of advertising, but it was aimed at Donald Trump personally.
Sam: It was like, it was on shows they knew he was watching meant to irritate him.
Sam: It wasn't actually selling to the state.
Ivan: Point is that, obviously, their internals told them that there was no point
Ivan: in doing it. And, and, you know, they, they had, I mean, I had not even been,
Ivan: I, you know, I've heard of so many people canvassing and working and doing stuff or whatever.
Ivan: And in other cycles, I had been approached to do that.
Ivan: I was never even approached in this cycle and I know I'm in their database to do that.
Ivan: So, so that indicated to me that they, they, they pretty much,
Ivan: you know, knew that this was, you know, whatever the result was going to be, it was going to be bad.
Ivan: And I did not see them really make any effort whatsoever.
Sam: Well, and I heard someone on TV earlier today, once again, it was somebody who
Sam: used to work for Howard Dean and lamenting, as we often do, the death of the
Sam: 50-state strategy during the early Obama administration.
Ivan: Sure.
Sam: It's like such a lost opportunity that, I mean, and I realize it costs money,
Sam: but like you kind of got to play everywhere.
Sam: It's not just for the short term. It's for building up for long term.
Sam: And if you completely abandon entire areas of the country and basically just
Sam: say, well, I can't, we're not going to win there this year, so we're not going to do anything.
Ivan: I think that is a way to make it worse over time. The future is worse.
Ivan: And that's what they've been doing in Florida.
Ivan: You know, that's just a reality. I mean, there was no, there was no canvassing.
Ivan: I mean, there's just no, no, nothing. There was just no activity. Nothing was done.
Ivan: So, you know, I'm not surprised. You know, even with messaging that may have
Ivan: turned positive for certain things, it's just, you know, there was nothing to
Ivan: turn that into, into votes. Right. Really.
Ivan: So, yeah. I mean, so, so we're now some 49 Eastern.
Sam: Oh, here we go.
Ivan: Yeah. Oh, 10 more.
Sam: 49, not 50.
Ivan: 49. You got me excited for a second. 49, not 59. 49 so um.
Sam: Yeah, I keep looking at the numbers in the states that are open,
Sam: but they're like North North Carolina is dribbling and it's only at 2%.
Sam: You can't say anything about that.
Ivan: George is at 14%.
Sam: Virginia is coming out as as a healthy Harris by 10, which like the average
Sam: the poll average there was Harris.
Ivan: Five. so.
Sam: So we have like on the one hand trump overperforming by like five percent in.
Ivan: Florida and harris overperforming but in virginia in.
Sam: Virginia so no overall like trend yet.
Ivan: Right right right and.
Sam: Then maybe there won't be you know each state could go its own way you know.
Ivan: Well that's i mean that's one of the
Ivan: things where i i you know i know that you you had your uniform
Ivan: swing versus individual saying and i have to
Ivan: say that seeing the dynamic difference that's happened between georgia and florida
Ivan: over the last 10 years yeah it really shows me that man there is no uniform
Ivan: swing hey i it it really i mean there there is here's the thing so this is why
Ivan: something that moves like one or two points i always usually say it's somewhere.
Sam: In between those two extremes.
Ivan: Right but.
Sam: I think it's closer to uniform swing and even though you have individual states
Sam: go all over the place and wild in general like if the pollsters are systematically
Sam: doing something wrong the same pollsters play in all of the swing states.
Ivan: But they tend to get between georgia and florida they've gone listen georgia
Ivan: was predicted for trump last time and it went the other way and and democrats
Ivan: have overperformed in Georgia,
Ivan: whereas it's been the opposite the last couple of election cycles in Florida.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: It's just been, they've been swinging, they've been swinging a different,
Ivan: in polar opposite directions.
Ivan: And so, I mean, I do listen, there is a thing of like, hey, is there some uniform effect?
Ivan: Yes, there is. But I do think that the bigger effects right now that we're having
Ivan: in the in the polls are far more local 80 to 90 percent than any of the uniform swing that it does.
Ivan: There is some gravitational pull, like, at the large extent,
Ivan: but, man, there are certainly very big local dynamics that are in play in these
Ivan: states, like, right now.
Ivan: Because I just don't see how these two states, you know, in this region have
Ivan: moved in such polar opposite directions.
Sam: Well, if it makes you feel better, Yvonne, like, my independent states odds
Sam: for Harris, like, uniform swing, I have it at 36.4%.
Sam: independent states is down at 13.5 because it
Sam: makes it so that like you know all it takes is one of the the the key blue whatever
Sam: it is the the blue belt whatever the yeah yeah yeah you know wisconsin uh michigan
Sam: and pennsylvania the blue wall all it takes is one of them going the other way and you're done.
Ivan: The blue belt.
Sam: And so if they all move in the same direction then the chances of one of them going the wrong way.
Sam: Like if you only did one of the three, you basically have a one in three chance
Sam: that one or two in three chance that one of them goes the other way.
Sam: You know, I'm not doing the math right, but it's easier for one of them to lose
Sam: than for all three of them to go the wrong way.
Ivan: So, you know, it's like Arizona, take 10 to 13 days, Nevada,
Ivan: November 9th, Georgia says several days. I'm looking at when they could have
Ivan: final tallies for these states.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Depending on where they are. Florida, because they've tightened it up pretty quickly.
Ivan: So they're getting everything in like right now pretty quick.
Ivan: They're at 80% right now reporting.
Sam: Florida's fast. Florida's fast. I imagine they'll call Florida pretty soon.
Ivan: Yeah. Well, I already did.
Sam: I know you did. But I'm not a, you know, I wait for somebody official to call Florida.
Ivan: Somebody official.
Ivan: I'll do these two calls. You can make a column of my calls. I'm calling Virginia right now for Harris.
Sam: There you go.
Ivan: And I'll call Florida for Trump. There you go. All right, I'll do my two calls.
Ivan: And I'm going to call New Hampshire for Harris, too. There you go.
Sam: So, uh, DDHQ has, let's see, Paris is ahead in Ohio now with 11% reporting.
Sam: That would be interesting if that happened.
Ivan: Okay. That would be, I mean, that would be, I mean, that would be,
Ivan: you know, uh, uh, uh, uh, an earthquake.
Sam: I think, I think we're still early because we've got Columbus and Akron have
Sam: reported and then a bunch of rural areas. So, yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. No Cleveland, though.
Sam: No Cincinnati.
Ivan: No Dayton. So that still leaves a lot unreported from the big areas.
Ivan: But here's the interesting thing.
Ivan: In Decision Desk, they have Harris up 55 to 44 on Decision Desk.
Ivan: Looking at New York Times, they have it Trump up.
Ivan: They have only 8% of the vote reporting in New York Times, whereas we got about 11% in on Decision Desk.
Ivan: So they've Now Ohio is up to 10% and New York Times just updated.
Ivan: Still Trump ahead there, but yeah.
Sam: Yeah. And Decision Desk's version of the needle is swinging up.
Sam: They're up to 65% Trump now.
Ivan: Mm-hmm.
Sam: Four minutes till the next batch of states. See, the thing is,
Sam: of course, the states you care about are all the close states that will take the longest to call.
Ivan: Hey pennsylvania what does it say here about the vote counting in pennsylvania
Ivan: counting is not expected to extend beyond election night primarily because election
Ivan: workers are not allowed to start pressing mail ballots until election day oh
Ivan: no counting is expected to extend
Ivan: beyond election night so yeah so they're not going to finish tonight,
Ivan: michigan says oh it's also slow okay all right by the way we're up to five people.
Sam: Here thanks Everybody who's here,
Sam: feel free to introduce yourself in the chat. I see Pete has joined us.
Sam: Yeah. He says, please repeat everything we said for the last hour. Only funnier.
Ivan: Oh, only funnier. I fucking hate this. We don't know shit yet.
Ivan: And I called Florida for Trump and Virginia for Harris and New Hampshire for Harris.
Sam: I also mentioned that both Florida and Virginia have wider margins than expected.
Ivan: But in the opposite direction.
Sam: But in the opposite direction. So Virginia is bluer than the polls indicated.
Sam: Florida is redder than the polls indicated.
Ivan: Right. yeah i mean in decision deaths right now harris is up 54 to 40 54.8 to
Ivan: 43 percent in virginia so yeah.
Sam: Which by the way is yeah the same percentage as ohio at the moment,
Sam: yeah that's 11 percent in yeah the problem with these 11 percent in and things
Sam: like that is it matters which 11%, you know?
Sam: And it also matters the balance of male versus in person.
Ivan: Fulton County has reported 767 votes. 700, not 767,000. I mean, 767.
Ivan: Where are we now? It's 758.45. So we'll get a batch of information pretty soon. we'll.
Sam: Probably get some quick calls on a few non-surprising states and then a bunch
Sam: of calls that say too soon to call on any state that matters yeah.
Ivan: Bob is saying that he posted a link that is showing the moves i'm not i don't
Ivan: i don't see where you posted that link though bob uh it's not on the slack or
Ivan: we're like i don't i don't i don't see it on yeah i don't see it post it again
Ivan: post it again yeah post it again.
Sam: Oh, less than a minute till the next batch of states.
Ivan: Oh, I also called, you know, oh no, that's, that's officially called.
Ivan: Well, Trump went one West Virginia. Surprise, surprise.
Sam: I just got an alert about the South Carolina call, but that was a long time ago, at least from DDHQ.
Ivan: Yeah. It's been a while. Yeah. But it's probably somebody else because I know
Ivan: I saw it a lot of times and Washington Post didn't have it called.
Sam: But yeah. Yeah.
Ivan: All right. It's eight o'clock.
Sam: Officially in the east what.
Ivan: Do we know we know nothing oh well okay decision desk called oklahoma and tennessee.
Sam: Not missouri no i.
Ivan: See oklahoma and tennessee for.
Sam: I'm looking i'm looking at decision jose i don't see i have.
Ivan: It up here what do you.
Sam: Want okay there we go i you know they're it's out of obviously got an auto refresh
Sam: every few seconds and you got an update before me uh oklahoma missouri maryland.
Ivan: Is for harris.
Sam: Okay big surprise there too shocker uh
Sam: let me move all of these over we got maryland we
Sam: got massachusetts we got rhode island all as expected we got as you said oklahoma
Sam: oklahoma missouri oh we'd already moved Kentucky,
Sam: Indiana, already moved.
Sam: Who did I miss? That's it. That's all the new ones, right?
Ivan: Mm-hmm.
Sam: Oh, no, Mississippi and Alabama.
Ivan: Oh, Mississippi and Alabama, too. Yeah. Also shocking developments.
Ivan: But no additional data. Okay,
Ivan: I see some data trickling in in Washington Post on, I mean,
Ivan: on the New York Times on on pennsylvania they've
Ivan: got uh three percent reporting harris up
Ivan: 72 27 with three percent but three percent means nothing i know where is it
Ivan: it's pittsburgh go go go go pete there you go 72 27 you guys are knocking it
Ivan: out at a park there you go connecticut and massachusetts i've been called for harris okay.
Sam: I already got massachusetts i'll move connecticut.
Ivan: And rhode i already.
Sam: Got rhode island who called connecticut.
Ivan: Uh i see it here in the new york times they got they got connecticut okay.
Sam: I'm moving mine over if anybody calls them decision dust doesn't have connecticut
Sam: yet yeah just compare and new york times doesn't have missouri yet but nine
Sam: percent of the vote in in texas and harris is leading.
Ivan: Yeah yeah yeah it's all dallas yeah.
Sam: North Carolina is up to 6%. Harris still ahead. All still cities,
Sam: I presume, even though I haven't clicked.
Ivan: Jesus, Harris. I mean, with 20% in Ohio, the lead is big.
Sam: Still leading. Yeah. With 26%, according to New York Times, and Harris is still ahead by 10%. Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, it's a large number of votes. It's 140,000 votes.
Sam: Is it still all cities, though? Let's click through.
Ivan: There's some rural areas reporting, too, but the cities. but mostly where to
Ivan: most of the people are. Yeah.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: But that's where most of the people are. I mean, how much was the total?
Ivan: I mean, I mean, yeah, it's a lot of ground to make up as well.
Sam: Well, yeah. But what, what we need to know is for all those counties,
Sam: how does it compare to what is expected in each county? And I don't know that we have that yet.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Okay. I'm going to listen to this for a second.
Sam: Yeah. This time, maybe Texas for Democrats, Pete says.
Ivan: I'm not holding my breath pete.
Sam: No he he was saying my entire life this is what i've heard is what he's oh yeah.
Ivan: Well yeah yeah.
Sam: Well within our lifetimes texas did have blue people like blue people yeah blue
Sam: man group what it was only the the 80s that still had like that's right they.
Ivan: Had a democratic governor.
Sam: Yeah and senators and such.
Ivan: And senators yeah i forgot about that.
Sam: Called florida no wow gee yeah i know you'd already called florida,
Sam: oh let me do that um i think i'm yeah i'm not i just don't like the washington
Sam: post interface every time i click it i'm like i don't like this no it's it's.
Ivan: Terrible it's really terrible it's it's really bad i i just i have it up but
Ivan: i'm not i'm just looking at what they update but I'm barely using it.
Ivan: I'm really more toggling between New.
Sam: York times and DDHQ.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: For anybody else following along, let me, let me, I'll put the links in the
Sam: chat to both the DDHQ page and the New York times page.
Sam: If you haven't followed them, found them yourself just so we can do that.
Sam: Where's my mouse? There's my, of course, every once in a while I should flip
Sam: over to Senate and stuff, but.
Ivan: Ah, fuck the Senate.
Sam: Oh, Rick Scott wins. Speaking of Senate.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. Well, Michigan has some votes and I see 2% New York times.
Ivan: See what it says. Harris way up.
Sam: 2% and it's all.
Ivan: It doesn't actually show where. Oh, near Detroit. Oh, Detroit suburb.
Ivan: Yeah. But not, not Detroit itself, but Detroit suburb.
Sam: This Ohio one is really intriguing.
Ivan: I know.
Sam: Like that would, that one would be a surprise.
Ivan: That one would be a shocker. Yes, absolutely.
Sam: And I mean, only 30% in, but it it's that leads hanging on so far.
Ivan: But yeah, I mean, because North Carolina Harris is up, but it's only 7% reporting.
Ivan: So that's not, you know, that much, but, but Ohio is, is, is there's,
Ivan: they've got 30, they got a third of the vote in and it's, it's a,
Ivan: it's a substantial lead it's 140 000 lead you know vote lead it's not a small lead so and and.
Sam: If if ohio goes that's a indication of michigan and pennsylvania.
Ivan: Yeah and wisconsin yeah um but.
Sam: Like i don't know this is one.
Ivan: Of those where i i don't know it's just too yeah it's still too early And most of it's from the.
Sam: The, yeah.
Ivan: I know.
Sam: Well, Donald Trump has taken the lead in Texas with 17% in.
Ivan: Yeah. Jeez. Okay. Pete, there you go.
Ivan: There goes, there, there goes your, yeah, no, no more leading in Texas.
Sam: I think what everybody's looking for, for Texas is Ted Cruz.
Ivan: It's the 50, 50, 49, by the way. Oh, yeah, I know.
Sam: It's still close, but.
Ivan: But, but yeah. Ah, how counties
Ivan: are shifting there you go so so bob just
Ivan: shared that map also let's see i got
Ivan: that up now or here another screen so
Ivan: okay this is a good thing so florida is showing that it went redder which that
Ivan: was like the information that we saw but dude this thing is showing ohio is
Ivan: going way bluer yeah big time bluer yeah that.
Sam: Would be huge.
Ivan: Yeah and it's showing big time bluer in ohio holy shit and.
Sam: That's 17 electoral votes that's almost as big as pennsylvania.
Ivan: And and and in in in in
Ivan: georgia it's also showing that you know
Ivan: where biden won is also
Ivan: bluer as well but the ohio
Ivan: number is the one that's really interesting we're showing that it
Ivan: is significantly bluer shit oh
Ivan: god don't don't fuck don't don't don't don't fuck with me don't don't play with
Ivan: me numbers man don't don't fuck with me don't don't don't don't play this game
Ivan: come on well at least that mob map from from the washington post is better than
Ivan: that yes that one is good Yeah, their main one is terrible, but this is good.
Ivan: Yeah, this one is definitely very good. But damn.
Ivan: Virginia, 31%. Let's see. Ugh, come on.
Sam: Let's see what you get. 1% in Kansas trumps ahead.
Ivan: Oh, well. Well, the margin in Virginia has gotten tighter. It's now about 51.47.
Ivan: So that's about four points.
Sam: Which is about what was expected.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I mean, my, let's see, what was my Virginia average? 6.1, Harris by 6.1.
Ivan: Now, the interesting thing is that the map that they produced for in here,
Ivan: it's not showing North Carolina.
Ivan: swings yet but actually there are some that is showing that it's definitely
Ivan: two some of the votes that are coming in well no the the one but the ones that
Ivan: are showing up is showing that north carolina definitely bluer in the places
Ivan: that it that votes have been coming in than before.
Sam: Well bottom left hand corner of north carolina look there's some red arrows there.
Ivan: Yeah but if you look at the top like around where
Ivan: raleigh where the big population center it's got a blue arrow there the other
Ivan: way so but it's just very but very little data very little data very little
Ivan: data ohio they've got a lot more data and they're showing it's that that map
Ivan: is like it's is the polar opposite of of uh of of florida.
Sam: Right i've got i've got my four up news channels here on the the phone and none
Sam: of the four have mentioned ohio yet as that as i can see so i'm wondering why not because it just.
Ivan: It does seem interesting i mean i don't know these fucking people older talking
Ivan: about is bullshit all days.
Ivan: Why don't I'm not even listening to what the fuck they're saying, for God's sakes.
Ivan: I don't know. There's like just a lot of dribble gibberish.
Sam: Okay, they're talking about Michigan.
Ivan: Well, the Michigan votes then, but that's 2%. I mean, whatever.
Sam: Yeah, no.
Ivan: Pennsylvania is up to 5%. The margin is ridiculous.
Sam: Yeah, yeah.
Ivan: I mean, no, no, no, no, no.
Sam: It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
Ivan: Yeah, but dude, dude, it's 76 to 23. Okay, all right, that's not, you know...
Ivan: I mean, it's 76 to 23. It's not, you know, it's, I mean, that number is like beyond overwhelming.
Sam: Right. Yeah. Well, yeah, the New York Times definitely has the best interface
Sam: here for like clicking into states and seeing details and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: Like DDHQ is sometimes faster with some of the information, but New York Times has the best interface.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. In order to dive into what's going on. Yeah.
Sam: And oh, oh, DDHQ.
Ivan: By the way, the DDHQ margin, the chance is dropping like a rock all of a sudden.
Sam: Yeah, and they've colored in Ohio leaning blue. They haven't called it yet,
Sam: but they've colored it in leaning blue.
Ivan: They've got Pennsylvania leaning blue.
Sam: And North Carolina.
Ivan: They've got Michigan leaning blue. And Virginia and North Carolina.
Sam: That's right.
Ivan: That's game over.
Sam: That's game over if that's the case.
Ivan: Holy fuck.
Ivan: It's a Christmas miracle.
Sam: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Ivan: Listen, if that's true, I'm going to cry. I mean, I'm serious.
Ivan: You're going to have me crying here.
Sam: I'll take losing Georgia if you get North Carolina and Ohio.
Sam: Like, no, Ohio wasn't on anybody's radar.
Ivan: No! No!
Ivan: I mean, I mean.
Sam: There were a couple of points. Let me, let me look at my Ohio graph for a second.
Sam: There were a couple of polls showing it close, but they look, they were outliers.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Like there was a, there was a Miami university poll in Ohio that actually just
Sam: came out a few days ago, but was in the field like the last week is in the field,
Sam: October 28th to October 30th that had Trump only had by 3%.
Sam: But also in the last week, there were a whole bunch of other polls showing him
Sam: up six, up seven, up as high as 12, like in Ohio.
Sam: So that Trump only up by three in Ohio was definitely an outlier.
Sam: So I don't know if this is a situation. Oh, Ohio's down to 51-48,
Sam: according to New York Times, or 37.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I get that.
Sam: So this may slip away. like that though.
Ivan: This by the way decision desk has it at at 54 to 45 still okay by the way but
Ivan: but i do they do they don't have as many votes yeah yeah so that yeah it's 1.6
Ivan: million versus let's see what's the number so.
Sam: I think i think this is a blue.
Ivan: Moron wait no no no no wait they have more yes yes yes they're looking at 1.6
Ivan: million votes in in in ddhq versus oh versus new york times only has about two
Ivan: now they're up to two million now they're up to two million okay.
Sam: New york times is 36 percent in uh.
Ivan: Yeah now that oh.
Sam: Man that was exciting to think about for a few seconds.
Ivan: It's still that it's still you know still.
Sam: In play it's still in play it's still closer than people thought maybe but.
Ivan: No and the map listen like i said the the the the map that we're looking at
Ivan: is still showing that ohio is definitely bluer right the the the the map on
Ivan: the on the washington post is showing that that is that that is still the case
Ivan: it that that has not changed,
Ivan: And the change in Georgia, the changes look slight.
Ivan: You know how they show the arrows where there is some slight red movement,
Ivan: but there's also a blue movement in Georgia.
Ivan: But if you look at where the blue movement is, it's in areas of larger population.
Ivan: So that one is, you know.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Well, by the way, North Carolina is still four point lead, but 9% in,
Ivan: but I'm not, I'm not sure where.
Sam: Pete says Ohio always does this. The cities report first and then a 98% rural
Sam: counties overwhelm them.
Ivan: No, but, but, but the one thing is Pete, the different, the thing is that the
Ivan: Washington Post map is showing that there is a substantial swing towards blue
Ivan: votes in everywhere. which doesn't ohio which.
Sam: Doesn't mean harris will win but it looks like it's going to be closer than it was.
Ivan: Correct four years ago right but but
Ivan: basically all the arrows are blue i mean
Ivan: every single one and and and and and and and the shifts are here's the one thing
Ivan: it's not just the shift the shifts that they're showing are large i don't know
Ivan: if you're looking at you know the size of the arrow in terms of size of the
Ivan: shift if you look at it there's a lot of very large arrows in in that ohio map they're not small new.
Sam: York times calls hi a likely r they have a little they don't have the real needle
Sam: but they have like a little icon of the needle they're calling pennsylvania
Sam: toss-up michigan a toss-up north carolina toss-up.
Ivan: Oh i oh yeah yeah i see georgia.
Sam: Toss-up that's not really.
Ivan: Helpful it's not very helpful new york times and there's a reason apparently
Ivan: why you fucking shut this thing off let's see what about north carolina toss-up
Ivan: yeah they got north carolina toss-up what time is wisconsin close well.
Sam: Let me check my map wisconsin 9 p.m eastern 9 p.m.
Ivan: Eastern listen i will say this though the ddhq percent chance is that it is
Ivan: swung substantially hard the other way.
Sam: Yeah they are now at well 61 percent trump.
Ivan: Yeah but that but that's actually down from 72 yeah and but no but it's it's
Ivan: down from like where it started this is like the lowest it is it started tracking
Ivan: is what i'm looking at right now yeah their their.
Sam: Current projection is 276 electoral votes for trump 262 for harris.
Ivan: They started at around 61.60 they started they started around 60 and right now
Ivan: it's well it's it's around the same number it swung up but then it it it pushed
Ivan: back down as these returns came in oh what says.
Sam: Pete says the needle just came back there it is the needle is there.
Ivan: I'm gonna call new jersey for for,
Ivan: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. There it is. Basically, yeah. And what is a show? Toss-up.
Sam: With a slight lean towards Trump. Which is what the polling said before we started tonight.
Ivan: Correct. Basically, that is not new information.
Sam: Yeah. Now, of course, what everybody on the Harris side was all hyped about
Sam: was, looks like the polls are all wrong and they're missing something.
Ivan: We don't know that yet.
Sam: We still don't know. We still don't know.
Ivan: Yeah, we still don't know that yet. So, I mean, that's the one thing.
Ivan: None of that we will know tonight, or the polls, right?
Sam: I think the one thing we're seeing now, unless we get a real huge surprise somewhere,
Sam: is that it really is close.
Ivan: It really is close.
Sam: Like we had said, there's a whole range of possibilities. Well,
Sam: there's still a whole range of possibilities, but that whole range could be
Sam: determined by a whole bunch of states that really are close. like the problem.
Ivan: Is the electoral college magnifies things did you create my column of called states i i did.
Sam: Not create a column for you.
Ivan: I'm you're an asshole.
Sam: You can create your own damn spreadsheet.
Ivan: You have a spreadsheet hi manu well he can't hear you but yeah mono he said
Ivan: he said hi can you say hi i'm.
Sam: On i'm on headphones too yeah.
Ivan: You want to say hi talk to a microphone hi oh there you go okay all right there
Ivan: you go kansas is showing blue in one map but but uh yeah the legal says very
Ivan: likely are but it's showing it's hilarious seven.
Sam: Percent still close is it city oh much more data on the like changing states
Sam: the changing counties thing.
Ivan: Lots lots.
Sam: Of virginia redder than last time.
Ivan: Kentucky redder.
Sam: Than last time florida redder yeah redder and georgia so far.
Ivan: Kansas is showing bluer the arrows that have come up way bluer ddhq.
Sam: Has kansas leaning blue at the moment.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: They still have a violating blue needle needle needle.
Ivan: Here's an interesting thing you know we're
Ivan: talking about cleveland ohio with 40 percent of the votes reported
Ivan: right yeah well the reality is that
Ivan: even from the cities they've only reported 40 percent of the votes
Ivan: from the cities and and that margin is overwhelming in the cities still but
Ivan: but they're reporting it's not like they already it's 100 of columbus or hamilton
Ivan: county or cuyahoga that's reported it's cuyahoga is 33% and Harris is up by 70 to 30.
Ivan: We got Franklin County is 70-30 as well, but only 40% of the votes.
Ivan: So there is still quite a lot of, and Toledo, the same 40% of the votes, 63-36.
Ivan: So you've got, yeah, I mean, that margin in Ohio has been shrinking.
Ivan: And right now it's like, actually in in the new york times
Ivan: data showing like right now trump leading by
Ivan: 0.1 but but there's still
Ivan: a lot of votes also from from it's not
Ivan: like they they shot their load from from the big counties and there are still
Ivan: not votes to be counted right that's what it's it's looking at right right now
Ivan: so and actually i'm looking at the smaller counties they've reported larger
Ivan: percentages are you looking at ohio still yeah yeah donald.
Sam: Trump has taken the lead in ohio now.
Ivan: Yeah by 0.1 yeah yeah yeah.
Sam: That's why they didn't talk about ohio yet but it is closer it is close oh it's
Sam: way closer florida abortion thing lost wow wow florida rejects proposal to include
Sam: right to abortion in state's constitution.
Ivan: I'm speechless about that one. I mean, if you won't even vote for that, then... Wow.
Sam: Toss up.
Sam: Scanning all these states.
Ivan: I mean, I figured that even if they voted for this orange clown in Florida, they would have...
Ivan: By the way, legalized marijuana is only 55% as well. The abortion rights won 57%.
Ivan: so yeah no they didn't uh it's yeah so they they needed it's the threshold is
Ivan: well over 60 percent in order for that to trump's.
Sam: Taking the lead in virginia 40 in still expected to go the other way but if
Sam: you look at that county swing map virginia is all heading red.
Ivan: Yeah yeah yeah of course it It also depends on who's reporting right now.
Sam: Yep.
Sam: DDHQ's Trump win odds are back up to 71%.
Ivan: Yeah, I see that. Well, Harris has a healthy lead in Michigan right now with 5% of the vote in.
Ivan: And with 80% of the vote in Pennsylvania as well, but very early still.
Sam: Yeah, those are still tiny numbers.
Ivan: Yeah. I mean, the needle has Virginia still lean deep, even with those votes,
Ivan: and North Carolina is still a toss-up.
Sam: I'm not feeling as good as I was an hour and a half ago.
Sam: Next poll's closing in five seconds.
Ivan: Who's closing now? Well, I didn't feel very good to start, so not exactly.
Ivan: I didn't feel good at all the entire time.
Sam: Arkansas.
Ivan: Well Arkansas got called by DDHQ for Trump.
Sam: Yeah I just added that I am off by one electoral vote what am I missing for
Sam: oh okay now that's right four to 30 South Carolina okay.
Ivan: I will call Illinois for but you're not tracking me every rural county that
Ivan: they are showing in Ohio Look, in the Washington Post map, it shows the shift by,
Ivan: and it's, all the small counties are D plus a significant amount.
Sam: But probably not enough.
Ivan: I mean, like D plus 9, D plus 8, D plus 8.
Ivan: die i mean it's not insignificant that's what i'm trying to say.
Sam: Who do we have here what else did they do delaware uh.
Ivan: Okay yeah sure.
Sam: Like my total i have the same states marked off as like these sites but my total
Sam: doesn't add up the same and i've checked the votes in each state and they match
Sam: so i'm like where did i get like where did i get 101 one.
Sam: That doesn't match the states they lit up.
Sam: You know, whatever. Okay.
Sam: Hey, to the folks watching on the live stream, I see there are seven of you now.
Sam: So if you haven't introduced yourself on the chat, feel free to jump in and say hi on the chat.
Sam: Or not. You can stay quiet if you want. It's fine.
Sam: Oh, the needle says Harris is on track to win the popular vote, though.
Ivan: Great. Thanks.
Sam: Trump has pulled ahead in North Carolina with 14% in. Still ahead in Virginia.
Ivan: Oh, yeah. By 20 votes. Yes. In North Carolina.
Sam: I know. I see it. I see it.
Ivan: I see it. It's not a good...
Ivan: Yeah, by 20 votes.
Sam: Imagine if that was what the margin ended up as. You know, Donald Trump's lawsuits would go nuts.
Ivan: Oh, God.
Sam: Or Harris's if it went the other way. Yeah. A 20-vote margin, anybody would sue over.
Ivan: Well, I think it's automatic recount.
Sam: Well, that depends on the state. I don't know about North Carolina.
Ivan: But I don't know what the North Carolina rules are either. Yeah.
Ivan: So here's the interesting thing, Sam.
Ivan: Decision Desk is receiving more vote totals for Ohio.
Ivan: And Harris is ahead. And Harris continues to be ahead in Ohio at 35%.
Sam: Well, but New York has 42% in.
Ivan: Yeah, but my question is, of course, which percentage should they have?
Ivan: Because the thing is that they keep, it's, you know, depending on where they're sourcing their data.
Ivan: the one thing is that the ohio one in in decision desk is consistently showed,
Ivan: showing it the other way so but but obviously you know it all depends on where
Ivan: you know the votes are that they're collecting are being reported from i'm gonna
Ivan: try to see if i can look at some of the.
Sam: Oh dc that's the one vote that i'm missing they they gave dc dc has been called.
Ivan: Yeah well oh my god i'm so shocked sam yeah wait no that's that's.
Sam: Not what i was missing but what i'm missing a red, I'm really missing a red. Let's see, for example.
Ivan: I'm looking at in the New York times.
Ivan: Okay. So I'm just comparing, I haven't looked at both, both,
Ivan: both, uh, both of the data Franklin County, which is where Columbus is.
Ivan: And they've got 40% of the vote in, okay.
Ivan: And in New York times and decision desk, they've, yeah, they've only got 38% of the vote in.
Ivan: So that's the big difference between one or the other.
Ivan: However, here's the thing. I would add a lot more votes to.
Ivan: So I don't know. So that's the one thing.
Ivan: It's very interesting how they're getting their data because they're obviously
Ivan: sourcing it significantly differently at this point.
Sam: Jonathan wants to know when Trump is going to declare victory.
Ivan: Tonight?
Sam: No, but what time?
Ivan: Oh, gosh, I don't know.
Sam: I'd say Bannon chastised him like last week for waiting till two in the morning
Sam: to declare victory last time and said he should do it at 10 p.m.
Sam: So I'm going to guess 10 p.m. Eastern.
Ivan: Oh, 250,000 votes over here.
Ivan: They've got, it's very interesting. They've got the same number of votes in Columbus.
Sam: Oh, they've got Illinois. Illinois just called, you called that a while ago, but.
Ivan: Oh, geez. Well, North Carolina right now in, in, it's a much bigger lead for,
Ivan: for in, in New York times, like right now that, uh, that it was, and they they've got it.
Ivan: They've got it shaded leaning red on, on DDHQ right now.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: 51 to 48. Virginia is a lot closer. Fuck.
Sam: Robinson lost in North Carolina, though. Expected.
Ivan: Robinson was a Republican?
Sam: The crazy governor. The crazy governor who, like, Nazi porn or whatever it was.
Ivan: Oh, okay. All right. Well.
Sam: This is going to come back to the blue wall states again, because it doesn't
Sam: look good so far for the other potential pickups that Harris had.
Ivan: No. No. No. Not at all. No.
Ivan: Yeah, this is crazy, but you realize that right now Texas is close.
Ivan: I mean, which I guess makes sense given how much effort put into the states.
Ivan: I mean, Texas is closer than Florida.
Ivan: Florida is a blowout number.
Sam: Well, there wasn't a lot of effort put into Texas either, except for Allred,
Sam: but not necessarily for Harris.
Ivan: Yeah, but geez, it's not even, I mean.
Sam: Just checking just checking senate results cruise is a head right with 50 of
Sam: the votes in by how much 59.4 to 48.7.
Ivan: Wait 51.4 to 48 you said 49.4.
Sam: To 48.7.
Ivan: 49.4 to 48.7 49.4 to 48.7 it's that fucking close yeah with two with how much
Ivan: reported uh 50 holy shit that's Tight.
Sam: Needle is moving redder.
Ivan: Not by much.
Ivan: say 43 what what are the next states that close at nine o'clock.
Sam: Let me check my map you want nine o'clock closings louisiana iowa wisconsin
Sam: new york minnesota nebraska south dakota wyoming colorado new mexico arizona.
Ivan: That's an interesting bunch at nine o'clock yeah i'll tell you what But Ohio is still super tight.
Ivan: I mean, what they're saying here in the data,
Ivan: which is that Columbus County still only reported, I don't care which source
Ivan: you look at, New York Times or so, only 40% of their votes.
Ivan: Cleveland only shows 33.
Ivan: And Cincinnati with only 37. I mean,
Ivan: Harris is winning all three by 65 to 30, you know, 35 March,
Ivan: 70. I mean, almost like 70% to 30.
Ivan: I mean, if that's accurate, that's a big number of votes that have still not come in there in those.
Ivan: Whereas I'm looking at a lot of the
Ivan: smaller counties, their percentages of reported votes are a lot higher.
Ivan: They're north of 50% almost every small county that I've that I've clicked on.
Sam: But there are a lot of them. They add up.
Ivan: No, but but Sam, it's not. It's I know what you're saying. I know what I'm saying.
Ivan: I'm the it's it's.
Ivan: it makes it very close. It doesn't, it's, it's, it makes it extremely close.
Ivan: Give it because yeah, Sam. Yeah. There are a lot of them. Yeah.
Ivan: Great. But you know, you know.
Sam: I mean the bottom line from that Washington post chart is Trump lost a lot of
Sam: ground in Ohio, no matter what the, but the thing is he had a lot of ground to lose.
Ivan: The question is, hello.
Sam: Margin in Texas is up to 6% now.
Ivan: More, more like expected.
Sam: More like what? Oh, for Cruz. Cruz. 2%.
Ivan: I really hate him.
Sam: The house map is slowly filling in too, but it'll be a long time until we know what's going on.
Sam: I mean, some of the key purple seats are in California.
Sam: California takes weeks.
Sam: And New York isn't all that speedy either.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Harris is still ahead in Kansas. 28% in.
Ivan: Let me see what's reported in Kansas.
Ivan: Not Wichita. Hey, my wife is home from pole duty.
Ivan: What? Hey, where are you going? What happened? No, we won't. We're live.
Ivan: well well you can you can save you're tired,
Ivan: I can get a kiss. Is that allowed? Yes. All right. Thank you.
Sam: What the hell? New York Times doesn't have the county breakdowns in Maine.
Sam: I'm not county. Congressional district breakdowns.
Ivan: Oh.
Sam: And they matter in Maine and Nebraska. Does DDHQ have it? No.
Sam: DDHQ has changed Ohio to leaning red.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, they did. Well, now they've got, now their number,
Ivan: yeah, they're reporting. they're at about the same reporting 43 45 percent.
Sam: Or it's 65 in Georgia now and 5
Sam: percent more do I think see unless all the missing votes are in Kansas is.
Ivan: Showing extremely I mean Oklahoma actually I'm looking at Oklahoma and I'm looking
Ivan: Kansas both of them are showing extreme moves to blue but but.
Sam: But but they're so red it doesn't you know matter but
Sam: yeah wow well not enough like that the whole thing we were talking about earlier
Sam: about the 50 states strategy it should not be ignored even if they don't flip
Sam: blue if ohio and kansas and oklahoma are bluer than they were four years ago
Sam: that's something to pay attention that.
Ivan: Helps with the house.
Sam: Well maybe not.
Ivan: You know, when, when you, when you invest enough time over time, over time,
Ivan: not, not in one cycle, but it's just, the problem is that you can't just not
Ivan: invest in it and just leave it, you know, um.
Ivan: Yeah, I mean, they did call Oklahoma for him.
Sam: MSNBC is saying what we were talking about like an hour ago,
Sam: that it does look like the public polling that said things are close was roughly right.
Sam: Like the idea that it could be off in one direction and either Donald Trump
Sam: or Harris could actually end up with a blowout tonight.
Ivan: So basically, the HLs that they did made it be closer to accurate.
Sam: It looks that way.
Ivan: It's looking that way so far.
Sam: Now, even still, if we've got a bunch of close states, the electoral college
Sam: margin could still be big on either side. Correct.
Sam: Because, you know, a 0.01% difference in a close state moves the entire set
Sam: of electoral votes from one side to the other.
Sam: but i hear you but it looks like this
Sam: is going to potentially come down to several
Sam: really close states now we're already like unless
Sam: something changes dramatically and soon it looks like north carolina and georgia
Sam: are not going to be two of those close states it could well be like what i'm
Sam: in unless we see like a surprise in arizona or something and recent polling
Sam: and if it looks like polling has been accurate.
Sam: Arizona was getting red over the last couple of weeks, but unless we have a
Sam: surprise from out there somewhere, Arizona, Nevada, whatever,
Sam: it's the blue wall states again.
Sam: It's Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the ones that it's all going to come down to here.
Sam: I had Michigan and Wisconsin slightly bluer than Pennsylvania.
Sam: So if they come through, it'll all be Pennsylvania.
Sam: So we'll see. But of course, At this point, any one of those three could still
Sam: go red, too. They could all go red.
Sam: Donald Trump could still sweep all the close states. That's still very possible right now.
Sam: Oh, New York Times has a shift page, too.
Ivan: Hmm?
Sam: New York Times has a shift from 2020 page as well.
Ivan: Oh, they didn't. Okay.
Sam: Except I just lost it. I hit them.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Oh, there you go. Yeah. Now they only have, like, they don't,
Sam: they're missing a bunch of states that Washington Post has the,
Sam: for that margin by county live forecast. Yeah.
Sam: Interesting pages.
Ivan: Ah, well, this page, those are good. Wisconsin close at nine,
Ivan: Iowa at nine, Minnesota at nine. Okay. Yes.
Sam: Pennsylvania is so misleading. It's all the, it's all the population center.
Sam: It's Pittsburgh and Philly. It's Pittsburgh and Philly and the suburbs. They're on.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Oh, did I, I already have New Jersey. New Jersey has been called. Did I? Nope.
Ivan: Yeah. New Jersey has been called. it is but not a lot of their votes only like
Ivan: for example philadelphia is only like 16 percent of vote 13 percent of the vote
Ivan: it's still but it's still a small percentage of the uh.
Sam: Of the of the ones where the total vote of
Sam: the ones where the expected margin was under 10 the only one called yet is florida
Sam: and it went and it went in the direction it was expected to go but by more than
Sam: it was expected to go yeah by by a decent amount if florida is an indication
Sam: of anywhere else but again ohio is going to opposite direction um ohio.
Ivan: Is going to totally opposite direction so that's.
Sam: And and virginia is virginia as well well virginia is going in the red direction
Sam: virginia is much closer i mean trump's in the lead in virginia right now so
Sam: now they still have it as lead d on new york times yeah.
Ivan: Yeah and so it.
Sam: Must be well and wait wait usually that wait wait ddhq has
Sam: called virginia for harris though okay so
Sam: no wait wait wait like yo i
Sam: i respect ddhq for their early calls they they look at the trends early but
Sam: they called it for harris while she was behind you know and i well i know but
Sam: i think because of why it's because of where it is where the remaining votes
Sam: are i know i know but it's just it's just like it just seems in congress well actually by.
Ivan: The way in in in in uh new york times right now.
Sam: I'm gonna move it though no.
Ivan: She's still behind no she's still behind she's still behind but but,
Ivan: She's still behind it.
Sam: Okay, so Virginia is the second state that's been called that had a margin under 10.
Sam: Although, like I said, DDA HQ feels early on this one, but DDA HQ is very good. Very good.
Sam: I wish Pennsylvania and Michigan would report faster, but I know they're both
Sam: going to be reporting for days, probably.
Ivan: Yeah, and Ohio. margin is definitely moving the other way the one thing is that
Ivan: i and i saw this in the last,
Ivan: election where ohio is very confusing
Ivan: in the in the way that i've seen how they report
Ivan: percentage of votes that that are yet
Ivan: to be counted okay where i
Ivan: the last couple of times i've seen these where it
Ivan: says that oh but there's a lot of votes leaving in the cities
Ivan: for whatever reason what i recall is that it didn't materialize in that way
Ivan: right which is why i think that that that you know the new york times is showing
Ivan: it as likely are right now period because of now that of that information tennessee.
Sam: Called to another non-surprise.
Ivan: A non-surprise i see did you put down kentucky because i see kentucky.
Sam: Yeah it was one of the very first ones called.
Ivan: I see missouri also called yep.
Sam: Got that it was also a while ago oh i get it though the ddhq's number bars on
Sam: the top the 128 versus 67 include all the leaning states not just the called states.
Ivan: Okay they.
Sam: They should there should be two colors there oh oh michigan is leaning blue.
Ivan: Not called.
Sam: Yet like by ddhq they just changed the color.
Ivan: No but yeah but it's leaning blue yeah yeah oh 15.
Sam: And 9 come on It's all going to come down to these three fucking midwest states
Sam: and they're going to be like, we're going to be waiting days.
Sam: Which, by the way, everything so far is lining up with the poll averages as
Sam: they were. Without corrections.
Ivan: We're not having... The one thing is, we're not having...
Ivan: I mean, we're not having the situation.
Sam: Yeah, we're not having the situation where, oh, my God, the polls were missing X, Y, Z.
Sam: And really, it's 5% bluer or 5% redder than what the polls were saying.
Ivan: Except in Florida. Except in Florida.
Sam: Except in Florida.
Ivan: Yeah, except in Florida.
Sam: Well, and Virginia. Virginia is about 5% redder than it was looking to.
Ivan: Well, not with the final tally. At this point, it's like, obviously,
Ivan: I mean, the fact that the DHQ called it is because they believe that that's
Ivan: going to wind back up again. So, you know.
Sam: Yeah, but we don't know by how much. But yeah.
Ivan: We don't know by how much, but yeah. All right. So.
Sam: Nebraska, too early to call. They're making some calls now. We just passed nine o'clock.
Ivan: Well, Nebraska over here says it's called.
Sam: Colorado, too early.
Ivan: No, Nebraska over here says called. Okay.
Sam: MSNBC.
Ivan: Both New York Times and whatever have Nebraska, South America.
Sam: But they're not splitting Nebraska. Oh, my God. Like, is Nebraska 2 going to
Sam: go blue like everyone expects or not?
Sam: It needs to be separated out. Okay.
Ivan: They have two electoral. How much?
Sam: Well, it's got four. It's got Nebraska has five. So two are for the statewide
Sam: number and then one for each.
Ivan: Okay. All right. So they've got one that is two of them are.
Sam: Okay. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming. We got all kinds of states happening.
Sam: Let's see, Wyoming, and let's do the North and South Dakota,
Sam: Nebraska, all moving not over.
Ivan: Look, the one interesting thing that, you know, Ohio, the needle has it.
Sam: There they go. New York Times, I didn't notice. They have the congressional
Sam: districts over in the right-hand corner for Maine.
Ivan: Oh, okay. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. They have them at the bottom. Yeah, that's right.
Ivan: So, Ohio, New York Times does have it, likely are.
Ivan: Yeah. But North Carolina, no. They just have a toss-up.
Sam: Slightly leaner.
Ivan: It's been toss-up. It's still a toss-up.
Ivan: That's the one that's... Decision Desk is calling Ohio for Trump. They just did.
Sam: Okay. I'm moving Ohio. Okay.
Ivan: So whatever they're seeing.
Sam: Closer than expected, but still are.
Ivan: Still are. Yeah. Yeah.
Sam: Oh, and they called Nebraska three as well, which is not surprising.
Sam: It is the reddest electoral vote in the country.
Ivan: Arizona polls closed, right?
Sam: Yeah. Arizona polls just closed. The few counties with arrows in Pennsylvania
Sam: are towards the blue side.
Sam: and pennsylvania was a was in 2020 was super super close so maybe that's a good sign and.
Ivan: Not just some the big blue arrows too.
Sam: Oh bunch of yellow things indicating updates see how's ted cruz doing leading
Sam: by four percent now with 56 percent in ted cruz is going to pull.
Ivan: I'm not gonna make a choke about.
Sam: It bruce would like this new mexico so far donald trump and chase oliver are
Sam: tied for the lead in new mexico yeah yeah yeah no votes for harris at all yet oh.
Ivan: Okay they've got 656 to 655 votes there you go.
Sam: That can't be real that can't even be.
Ivan: Real i don't know.
Sam: I mean even at less than one percent that can't be real and zero for harris yeah right uh yeah.
Ivan: Whoa must be some libertarian colony.
Sam: Kansas harris still leading in kansas with 35 of the vote in but i'm sure that's all from the cities,
Sam: i mean dbhq called kansas already for missouri is also harris ahead but likely
Sam: not to stay that way because it's
Sam: all st louis i iowa with less than one percent in trump is leading yeah.
Ivan: All right let's see.
Sam: Louisiana louisiana no louisiana was called a while ago.
Ivan: Yeah colorado well colorado results are in i i heavily.
Sam: Heavily blue yeah as expected but not called yet no.
Ivan: I think it'll be called soon though.
Sam: Trump wins texas louisiana north dakota south dakota wyoming and kansas according
Sam: to alert texas is now called let's move that over wait that number okay that
Sam: didn't change okay okay we're still waiting for the big seven,
Sam: So far, Michigan and PA leaning blue, which is what they need to be doing.
Sam: But the percentages in are so small. Well,
Sam: Fox is actually talking about Ohio right now. Do we have Ohio Senate?
Ivan: I mean, the decision has called up.
Sam: Ohio Senate? Not New York Times. Marino is ahead of shared broad.
Sam: DDHQ called it for Marino?
Ivan: No, no, no, no, no, no. I was just talking about the.
Sam: Presidential.
Ivan: But they haven't called the Senate. DDSQ called the presidential,
Ivan: but definitely not the Senate. They still got it. It's undecided.
Sam: Bruce just said woohoo, so he must have just seen. There's a few minutes.
Sam: The stream delays a little bit. There's some buffering.
Sam: So we get the responses on the chat potentially a couple minutes after we say something.
Ivan: Of course. Oops. It's a few minutes delayed right now? I don't think it's a
Ivan: few minutes. i think it's a few seconds.
Sam: Let's see i'm gonna i'm gonna put my hand up one two three four five six seven
Sam: eight nine nine seconds behind that's not that okay that's not that bad.
Ivan: That's not that.
Sam: Well at least to my interface over here like who knows well to me.
Ivan: It was about five or six more seconds later so yeah but but still it's 20 seconds it's not minutes.
Sam: Yeah, Karnacki is talking about various counties that are redder now than they
Sam: were four years ago in North Carolina, which is why it's toss up but leaning Trump right now.
Sam: The blue part of the needle is getting smaller, which basically says Harris
Sam: can still pull it out, but it's going to be a narrow electoral college victory
Sam: if he does, which it goes back to what I was saying.
Sam: It looks like all of the potential pickups, well, not pickup even, Georgia was, you know,
Sam: but it looks like Georgia and North Carolina are staying red this time,
Sam: which basically means you need Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.
Sam: There are some scenarios that involve Arizona, but Arizona was looking worse
Sam: for Harris than Georgia was.
Sam: So, you know, so if Georgia goes red, Arizona probably does too.
Sam: Although this is one of the cases where they are very different states on very
Sam: different parts of the country, but same time.
Sam: Okay. New Mexico's fixed now. Now, Trump is ahead with 2% of the votes in,
Sam: but we no longer have the situation with Harris nothing and the Libertarian tied for number one.
Sam: And Jonathan asks about Florida. Yes, they rejected the pro-choice thing and
Sam: they rejected marijuana.
Ivan: They rejected both, yeah. Wisconsin has like a tiny amount of votes in,
Ivan: nothing, like 700 votes.
Sam: New york times has about 3 000 now but still.
Ivan: Still tiny yeah nothing whatever trump.
Sam: Leading those 3 000 though.
Ivan: Yeah,
Ivan: yeah john but we we didn't answer that right yeah they rejected both yeah john
Ivan: yeah you know you're ready oh well i mean let's see new york times called a
Ivan: few more states nothing Like North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska.
Sam: They did that a while ago. I got those.
Ivan: Wyoming. But something added. Texas.
Sam: I got that. But it was the most recent one, I think.
Sam: Hey, why are you in my chair? Once the food arrives, I'm taking my chair. Really?
Sam: This is going to be one of those things where even if Harris pulls it out,
Sam: it's going to be incredibly depressing that it was so close and of course there's
Sam: still the very real possibility that Trump wins which will be even more depressing.
Ivan: Well New Hampshire do you have New Hampshire for Harris?
Sam: No did DDHQ just call it? Yeah okay I'm moving it over oops,
Sam: Still, none of the big seven. And no state has been a surprise so far.
Sam: Some of the margins have been surprising, but no actual state has gone.
Ivan: But let's be clear. We can call California, Washington, and Oregon for Harris. Okay. You know, why?
Sam: Well, my counts, like the count I have that says the range of possibilities
Sam: is from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86 still remains because it does call all
Sam: of those states effectively.
Sam: It calls every state except the seven.
Ivan: So what I'm saying is that if you want to your EV count right now,
Ivan: look, I think I think I can safely say right now without the polls having closed
Ivan: that those three are going to and I can safely say that Utah is going to Trump,
Ivan: Idaho and Montana. I can call.
Sam: Well, I'll call for you. hawaii california
Sam: maine's first washington new york colorado
Sam: oregon maine maine at large also
Sam: nebraska's first kansas louisiana montana
Sam: utah and ida there you
Sam: go those those are all the no-brainers that like
Sam: right it would take a universe shaking event
Sam: for one of those states to go the opposite direction exact exact
Sam: you know and so far we haven't had
Sam: a surprise in the next tier either that's like
Sam: states like new hampshire and virginia and florida
Sam: ohio texas yeah we haven't had a surprise in that next year and we haven't gotten
Sam: we have yet to have the first call in one of the core seven um but at the moment
Sam: we have you know it looks like north carolina and georgia are probably doing Trump,
Sam: and the others are still too close to call not enough votes so yeah.
Ivan: Now, look, well, I don't know. I was going to say, look, Georgia the last time.
Ivan: Well, the way that it went and why they are calling it is that.
Sam: It came back late.
Ivan: Very late. Yeah, it was very late.
Ivan: So that's the thing like where we're like right now when it happened, it was super late.
Ivan: So that's I think that's the that's the critical part to know about this,
Ivan: where I'm looking at Gwinnett County right now is only 18% of the vote and that has a lot of votes.
Ivan: I mean that has and Harris that is a very blue county,
Ivan: they've got 20% of those 60,000 so far it's like 300,000 votes to count still
Ivan: and that's not that's not in yet Fulton is in for the most part so that's a
Ivan: big one but that's a very big one that is not reported.
Ivan: And what I'm seeing is that most of the small counties are over 95% reported,
Ivan: which is why I think nobody's called Georgia because of that and what the margin is.
Ivan: So it's leaning R, but it's looking once again, as usual, as a fucking nail biter.
Ivan: In North Carolina, still 50-49. The margin is 40,000 votes. It's a very narrow margin as well.
Sam: If you remember in 2020, it was the closest state that Biden lost. It was also very narrow.
Ivan: Yeah. So it's definitely a good reason why this isn't called yet because it's
Ivan: definitely, the margin is still super tight.
Ivan: so yeah it's it's reasonable that neither ddhq or new york times haven't called
Ivan: these because of how the margins have been there so pennsylvania michigan still
Ivan: toss up wisconsin toss up,
Ivan: i mean with you know the votes in pennsylvania michigan harris is still in a solid lead but and the.
Sam: So in terms of percent win chance, DDHQ has Trump up to 69.2,
Sam: and New York Times has him at 66, which again, I'll say, very close to what election graphs had,
Sam: which doesn't make me happy, by the way.
Sam: I was hoping that there was a massive underestimation of Harris and that we'd
Sam: have a Harris blowout. That is not happening.
Ivan: Well well the one thing that you know
Ivan: we we're trying to make sure is that you know how many you
Ivan: know we know the pollsters have compensated and the
Ivan: question was by did they overcompensate compensate
Ivan: right that was the question it doesn't look like they overcompensated it looks
Ivan: like they've got it closer to what they've got it close to reality more than
Ivan: anything else um so the first arrows in iowa are showing big blue swings.
Sam: Yep well and iowa at the moment does have harris ahead at the moment but only
Sam: 10 percent in and all from cities.
Ivan: Yeah all from des moines but still yeah but
Ivan: but they're showing arrows from like the smaller areas
Ivan: and those are i i see yeah
Ivan: yeah the air yeah that so the the blue arrow isn't
Ivan: from there from des moines it's showing okay you know whatever like plus six
Ivan: but it's showing some of the smaller counties like a d plus 12 yeah i'm looking
Ivan: at the other one is a d plus 11 another small county so so what is coming in,
Ivan: doorbell go off so much well.
Sam: Right now i think pizza's being delivered.
Ivan: Ah, okay.
Sam: Well, and the little ringy noise
Sam: is not the doorbell. It's just motion detection in front of the house.
Ivan: Oh, okay.
Sam: Which makes the dog go crazy.
Ivan: Well, that's what I'm saying. It's very sensitive. Mine doesn't go off that often.
Sam: Well, I mean, someone was actually here. Although the most entertaining thing
Sam: with the motion detection is when a spider builds a web directly in front of
Sam: it and sets it off. like all the time until you go out and move the spider.
Sam: New bomb threats at polling sites in Pennsylvania. Yay.
Sam: Well, one thing I think I can say at this point is I kept saying,
Sam: don't be surprised by anything in the range from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86.
Sam: I think we're going to be in that range.
Sam: We're not going outside of the range in either direction, I don't think.
Ivan: Well, that's for certain, Sam.
Sam: Well, I don't know. Trump could still surprise in Virginia or something.
Ivan: No, it's not happening.
Sam: I know. It's not happening.
Ivan: No, it's not happening.
Sam: Both New York Times and DDHQ have their odds in the high 60s for Donald Trump right now.
Ivan: It's got to be super close, Sam. My gut, this is going to be.
Sam: We're going to come down to one or more states that take days to come back.
Sam: I think my bet is it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania,
Sam: which is what it's been looking like for months.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Like the the assuming the polls was right view had this all coming down to pennsylvania,
Sam: consistent yeah for a long consistent.
Ivan: Yeah and that's what it's.
Sam: Now at the moment trump is actually leaving wisconsin which would break that but.
Ivan: Yeah that's very early he's still that.
Sam: Doesn't make uh pete feel good as a pennsylvanian,
Sam: time to lower the chair lower the desk and sit down I've been standing up till now,
Sam: sorry Pete I already read your redacted message.
Ivan: Oh my my well at least one thing my.
Sam: Gut basically.
Ivan: Was not wrong about how I felt coming into tonight.
Sam: No, I had managed to get up a, a buildup of optimism over the last few days.
Ivan: And no, no, but my gut was just completely just, there is no,
Ivan: there is, I mean, Brandy, it's not going to be.
Sam: You know, you can fill it in the upstairs sink. It's fine. I got pizza.
Ivan: Oh, there you go. I already, I'm not really hungry. Can I be honest?
Ivan: i ate a late lunch i'm.
Sam: Not liking the needles prepare you know i had had as a topic the potential topic
Sam: the last few weeks preparing for a trump second term and we never actually discussed it.
Ivan: I didn't want to talk about it i know i know what i i don't i don't want to
Ivan: talk about it i don't want to fucking talk about it i don't want to fucking
Ivan: talk about it i mean i i i I mean, I don't know.
Sam: If and when it becomes real, then we'll talk about it.
Ivan: But I don't want to fucking talk about it.
Sam: Pete says Lucy in the football. But yeah,
Sam: it's feeling, well, I was going to say, it's feeling more like 2016 than 2020,
Sam: but I'm trying to remember 2020 in those three to four days.
Ivan: It was that that night was terrible. We thought, you know, it took three days for that to lift.
Sam: It was Friday before it was clear to anybody who was paying attention and Saturday
Sam: until they made the calls on the network.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: I wouldn't be surprised if we're waiting until Saturday again.
Sam: And it could go either way.
Sam: Yeah, Jonathan says it looked bad for a while in 2020.
Ivan: Yeah, it did look bad. He's not wrong. I mean, I remember it looked bad.
Ivan: It looked, I mean, basically, this is deja vu all over again to that.
Sam: Pennsylvania is narrowing 26% in. It's 55-44 now.
Sam: 53-45 in Michigan with 13%.
Sam: Wisconsin's up to 11, and Trump's still ahead of 54-45. But Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah, I know. Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah.
Sam: Hey, we're up to eight people watching. So if anybody hasn't said hi yet,
Sam: say hi in the comments. Nice to have you.
Ivan: Hi, guys. Nice to have you here. Sorry, we don't have better news.
Sam: We do have now maybe 40% of the.
Ivan: Voting I was hoping for better news but I well that probably I don't know how
Ivan: many could have been at the beginning of the stream I described as I came into
Ivan: this that the word I used to describe myself was completely I was glum I was
Ivan: not coming in optimistic,
Ivan: I had this terrible feeling I'm just you know so I mean,
Ivan: It's just, I'm not, I don't, I mean, I see a clear path based on where we are.
Ivan: It's just, you know, it's just.
Ivan: complicated i mean it's it's gonna be very tight.
Sam: Ddhq is called north carolina.
Ivan: Yep they did i mean and ddhq has harris ahead now in wisconsin so,
Ivan: who daddy's doing god damn,
Ivan: arizona nevada and all these well arizona closed at nine,
Ivan: eastern but i guess they're not reporting anything yet interesting who isn't
Ivan: arizona oh right polls are closed in arizona but they haven't first results expected.
Sam: Around 10 p.m eastern yeah most voters cast ballots by mail and counting typically
Sam: takes days full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days,
Sam: jonathan says i really thought women would save us it was
Sam: real that was looking really big
Sam: in the early vote numbers but same day
Sam: maybe going the other way yeah or
Sam: a lot of those women were voting trump well let
Sam: me check in on the senate still no call
Sam: in either the ohio race marina is still ahead to republican still no call in
Sam: texas cruz is still ahead by about eight now eight percent now and marina's
Sam: had by about three i keep looking at pennsylvania michigan wisconsin pennsylvania
Sam: michigan wisconsin there's.
Ivan: Nothing there's too close to.
Sam: I know i know and small numbers in still pa is up to 31 but still but still yeah,
Sam: New York times still has all three at pure toss up.
Sam: Now there's NBC is just doing Illinois. I had that a long time ago.
Ivan: Yeah. That, that, uh.
Sam: I saw a tick tock earlier today about Florida, Yvonne, where this woman was
Sam: like, you know, Florida could be a blue state.
Sam: If you just stopped sending your old racists here to die.
Ivan: To. Okay. Okay, I did a quick count.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Okay. For Kamala to win, okay, this is what needs to happen right now. Okay.
Ivan: Just to get to 273. Okay.
Sam: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
Ivan: Well, we'll start Maine. You know, okay, so.
Sam: I'm assuming.
Ivan: But in the ones, it's that, but plus Nevada. I don't see how you get to because
Ivan: I went and I'm like if I go with you can.
Sam: Get to a win without Nevada if you win every.
Ivan: Place she's.
Sam: Ahead in plus Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania just barely mind you and she needs
Sam: that Nebraska congressional district without the Nebraska congressional district you.
Ivan: Have you need the Nebraska congressional district that's right I'm saying one
Ivan: of the Nebraska congressional district What I add that up is Nebraska congressional district.
Ivan: Okay. So let me just show you what I, what I, Maine congressional district. Okay.
Ivan: Uh, and I'll look at a New York times map and where it's at versus just to look
Ivan: at one where it's called. Okay.
Ivan: They got 99, 178 main, the two plus the one, one separate congressional district, New Hampshire.
Ivan: Okay. All right. Which that's, that's not called, but that should be.
Sam: You know, DDSQ called it.
Ivan: Nebraska too. Yeah, DDSU called it, but the New York Times hadn't.
Ivan: So I was just doing the math based on their account.
Ivan: Nebraska, too, which that should be, that's leaning that, okay? Yeah.
Ivan: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, okay? Colorado, New Mexico, okay?
Ivan: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Nevada.
Ivan: That gets you to 273. It's not impossible, based on where the numbers are right
Ivan: now, but it's nerve-wracking, as all fucking can be.
Sam: And I'm looking at that moves, the Washington Post county moves map.
Ivan: And it's like.
Sam: The entire southeast is red.
Ivan: Oh yeah oh yeah yeah yeah the entire southeast went red as all can be well actually
Ivan: there's some there's some caveats north carolina north carolina actually didn't
Ivan: okay well if you're looking at well no look look there's a big hole in the middle but.
Sam: There's lots of red around the edges of north carolina.
Ivan: Yeah but but they're but but those are small it's it's not it's not like what
Ivan: you're seeing in in say you know tennessee no okay no The shifts in North Carolina
Ivan: have been more minor, okay, is what I'm saying.
Ivan: Georgia's got some deep blue moves in the big population centers and got red
Ivan: moves in the rest of the state.
Ivan: Ohio, as the night progressed, less blue arrows, but there's still a lot of
Ivan: blue with some red arrows.
Ivan: Pennsylvania is mixed.
Ivan: Definitely a redder Texas that you're seeing in this map.
Ivan: it's i mean new york is bluer pennsylvania seems to be looking bluer oh we got
Ivan: from the arrows that are coming in got.
Sam: A ddhq call for colorado.
Ivan: Okay well not a surprise not not another not shocking call,
Ivan: experts to figure that one out bottom line is that the result is as nail-bitingly as the polls,
Ivan: showed which some minor exceptions in some states where they didn't get it exactly
Ivan: right yeah that's uh yeah.
Sam: With yeah with the same rough breakdown of where the states were with Wisconsin,
Sam: Michigan, and Pennsylvania being right on the line very close.
Sam: In my blog post earlier today, I said both of those I thought were true toss-ups.
Sam: If the polls were roughly right, all three of those were true toss-ups,
Sam: and then the rest of the seven were probably going to Trump,
Sam: and that's what we're seeing right now.
Sam: Yeah.
Sam: That scenario... I don't know if you could hear rachel maddow behind me but
Sam: now she just went over the scenario we just said trump wins georgia north carolina
Sam: arizona nevada but and all the rest of the states go as expected,
Sam: but harris wins pennsylvania michigan wisconsin that's a 270 to 268 win.
Ivan: Oh my god jesus christ,
Ivan: by the way.
Sam: Even the assuming the assuming Nebraska, if she loses that Nebraska congressional
Sam: district, it turns into 269-269 and goes into the House.
Ivan: Well, right now, by the way, the 43% of the vote in Kamala is overwhelmingly ahead on the basket too.
Sam: Yeah, I know.
Ivan: Overwhelming.
Sam: I know.
Ivan: So it's not, that's, yeah, so that's, that's, that's that seems to be a given.
Ivan: Okay, she's going to get that one.
Sam: Hasn't been called yet, but yes.
Ivan: Hasn't been called yet but yeah but that but that looks like a gift okay that's
Ivan: that's and main district one as well so yeah those look like a gift and.
Sam: Main two is expected to go to trump.
Ivan: Yeah exactly yeah and.
Sam: Of course given what the rest of the map is looking at like harris has to win
Sam: all three of wisconsin michigan.
Ivan: Pennsylvania oh no no they she's got to there's no you lose any one of them
Ivan: it's over it's all it's all over yeah yeah yeah sayonara yeah yeah She has to win those three.
Ivan: Now, thankfully, smartly, I will say, they fucking invested the shit out of China Windows 3.
Sam: Now, one, you could swap Wisconsin for Arizona, but she wasn't looking good
Sam: in the polls in Arizona, so I'm not holding out a lot for that.
Ivan: Yeah, you need those three. You can't.
Sam: John asks, how do you think Joe would be doing right now?
Ivan: I honestly think pretty much the same.
Sam: I think he'd be doing worse. I think he might have been able to just barely
Sam: pull it out in a world where Harris was doing much better than this.
Sam: In the scenario we're seeing right now, I think this would be a clear Biden loss.
Ivan: I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
Ivan: I think, well, if actually, I'll take that back.
Ivan: Given what we have learned from the polling we're looking at right now,
Ivan: and that it seems to have been pretty close to what, so far,
Ivan: it's coming in pretty close to expectation.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Okay?
Sam: I mean, that's the one thing to say so far.
Ivan: It's very clear that Harris is performing better than how Biden would have performed.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Yes. So the reality is, yes, that Harris is definitely doing better than Biden would have done. Yes.
Sam: Bruce is pointing out that Bitcoin is apparently reacting positively to the
Sam: potential of Trump win. What are those noises?
Ivan: He's ahead right now. My son is playing with his ringtones.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: There you go.
Ivan: well i mean she is right now ahead in all three.
Sam: And and i and i think the uh which we i predicted last week but i i the democrat
Sam: position does not look like they're on track to keep the senate either.
Ivan: No no that's definitely a reality.
Sam: House unclear so far I can't tell on the house.
Ivan: Yeah, that's just, we can't, we won't on the house. I mean, honestly,
Ivan: it's not looking like we're going to know about this tonight.
Sam: We may narrow it down a little bit more. But like, I expect there'll probably
Sam: be calls in Georgia and North Carolina before too long.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, North Carolina, I mean, DDHQ called it.
Ivan: I mean, you know, but like I said, but even if they call, yeah,
Ivan: but even if they call Georgia, okay, I mean, it comes down to,
Ivan: you know, But when we're talking that it comes down to Pennsylvania,
Ivan: Michigan, Wisconsin,
Ivan: Minnesota.
Ivan: I mean, and, you know, we need to know what happens in Arizona and Nevada as well.
Sam: You know, in most scenarios, Nevada ends up not making a difference because it's so small there.
Sam: You know, you can get scenarios where Nevada makes a difference,
Sam: but most scenarios it doesn't.
Ivan: I mean harris is still leading in iowa but but only 12 percent of the vote.
Sam: Yeah and still all almost all des moines.
Ivan: Yeah yeah okay.
Sam: You know listen for a second,
Sam: Huh? Yeah. What's, what's amazing by these swing maps to me.
Sam: And, and of course this is because, you know, I'm in my Washington state liberal
Sam: bubble or whatever, but looking at like, I just fundamentally,
Sam: like I have, I understand where the core of Trump's support is,
Sam: but I have a hard time understanding how he built more support over the last four years.
Sam: you know like where who who
Sam: was not for trump four years ago and is now i mean is it really all people who
Sam: like just i don't know like are thinking like hey donald biden brought inflation
Sam: and that's all i don't know could.
Ivan: Be i mean that's not an unreasonable uh not a not an unreasonable belief i mean
Ivan: you know a lot of people definitely believe that so yeah it's not.
Sam: And meanwhile donald trump uh signed their stimmy checks yeah.
Ivan: Right exactly and you got that too.
Sam: Bruce is saying bitcoin is close to its all-time high now bruce says it's covered
Sam: lockdowns and mandates but that happened during trump that did not happen during maiden right.
Ivan: But i for whatever reason they still blame it on on on on the democrats though.
Sam: And the u.s never had actual lockdowns right it was or actual mandates and even
Sam: state by states there's not a single state in the united states that had anything
Sam: close to what most of europe had.
Ivan: Yeah it's just yeah.
Sam: Let alone like china so.
Ivan: Right right right so yeah so i i think it's just you know.
Sam: But but i think that is a good point for some reason like even though most of
Sam: the things that people complain about in terms of covid happened during the administration they.
Ivan: Still blame the democrats.
Sam: Yep yeah.
Ivan: Georgia's pretty much stuck at 77%, which is why nobody's calling it.
Sam: Yeah, it may well be.
Ivan: And that's what happened the last time.
Sam: Yeah, they stopped for the night, and then they continued the next day. So, yes.
Ivan: DDHQ isn't calling it?
Sam: And to answer Jonathan's question, do we need Minnesota? Yes, absolutely.
Ivan: Oh, we need Minnesota. Absolutely.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: For some reason, we went Georgia.
Sam: Minnesota is one that, yeah, the polling averages were up over 5% for Harris.
Sam: And it's absolutely needed. Like, if you lose Minnesota, everything's falling in place.
Ivan: Yeah, if you lose Minnesota, you need to win Georgia or something like that to make up for it.
Ivan: Or Georgia or Arizona, for that matter.
Ivan: You know, one of those. You know, you can't just.
Sam: But also, Minnesota is expected to be bluer than the blue wall.
Sam: So if you're losing Minnesota, you're probably losing the blue wall and you're done.
Sam: Trump's ahead in Wisconsin again by a very small number.
Ivan: Not on DDHQ yet.
Sam: Let's see. New York Times has 35%. What does DDHQ have?
Ivan: How much they got?
Sam: 35.
Ivan: 35? Yeah, they're a little bit behind. They got 30. Yeah. Let's see where they're reporting here.
Ivan: Still a lot of votes to come in.
Sam: Which state?
Ivan: Oh, Minnesota.
Sam: Oh, yeah, there are 2%.
Ivan: I mean, no, I'm sorry, Wisconsin, I meant.
Sam: Oh, yeah. Bruce says, according to the House map he's looking at,
Sam: the Republicans have gained one seat so far.
Sam: Nevada, too early to call.
Ivan: Oh, oh, good news.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Utah.
Sam: Oh, Utah has been called.
Ivan: For Trump. Can you believe it?
Sam: Oh, shocker.
Ivan: Trump is now slightly ahead in Pennsylvania.
Sam: Oh, well.
Ivan: By 0.1%. Good news is that around the Philly area, a percentage of votes reported
Ivan: is actually pretty low right now.
Ivan: Like 30%. So below the state.
Sam: Jonathan says in PA, the small places report faster.
Ivan: Yeah, that's what I figured.
Sam: Oh, what did we? Something just changed. What changed? DDHQ calls Montana,
Sam: You notice I don't have to say who for, but do we have a Montana Senate results yet? No.
Sam: Bob wants to say, it says, I wonder how Lickman is feeling tonight.
Sam: He's the one with the keys, the keys.
Sam: He was really, really confident in the Harris one.
Ivan: Only one county in Arizona is reported.
Sam: The Democrat did win the Senate race in Maryland.
Ivan: Yes.
Ivan: montana greg gina ford is re-elected as governor of montana.
Sam: Oh bernie won re-election 64 to 31 well.
Ivan: Camel is back up in pennsylvania so.
Sam: It's gonna be a fucking roller coaster,
Sam: my stepmother kathy spent most of the month of october uh canvassing in near
Sam: harrisburg knocking on doors getting out the vote is there even a display of
Sam: the bipolar vote anywhere oh i haven't been looking but uh i.
Ivan: I i saw it somewhere.
Sam: Like no one cares because it doesn't 1 million.
Ivan: 727941 to 35 million 609 641.
Sam: Trump has more.
Ivan: More of those well arizona's up to 36 And it's a dead tie.
Sam: It is 40 votes apart. Fuck. 40 votes apart.
Ivan: Fuck.
Sam: With Trump ahead by 40 votes.
Ivan: Fucking hell. Oh, for God's sake. Oh, for fuck.
Ivan: Oh, Jesus fucking Christ.
Sam: Oh, wait, do I have Wyoming? Yeah, I already had Wyoming.
Ivan: Okay, so 37% of the vote in in Iowa. Okay.
Sam: In Iowa? Yep, okay.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: 50-40.
Ivan: Yes, and the margin's really tiny. And I'm seeing that Cedar Rapids and some
Ivan: of the big blue counties haven't finished reporting yet.
Sam: Well, mainly Cedar Rapids.
Ivan: No, you got, oh, it's this other one. Black Hawk County, Cedar Rapids.
Ivan: Jesus. Well, here's the one thing.
Ivan: The Iowa, obviously, being at where it's looking at, what it's showing is that
Ivan: what's happening in Iowa is only happening in Iowa.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. It's not, yeah. I mean, it wasn't, that was one of the things that I think
Ivan: in the last few days, was it a generalized thing? thing but no what it's looking
Ivan: at is what it's happening in iowa is only happening in i.
Sam: Know by the way if you look at the swing map the blue ohio is now mostly red.
Ivan: Yeah it's like yeah it's it's got it's it's definitely tapered down yeah yeah
Ivan: right now the margin in ohio is now 56 43 for trump yeah ohio had fate had faked
Ivan: us before like this so Bob says.
Sam: Cedar Rapid isn't quite as blue as Des Moines or Iowa City.
Ivan: Well, they got a low percentage of people reporting is the only thing about that.
Sam: Let's see. New York Times just called Colorado, but DDHQ did that a while ago. Well,
Sam: so New York Times has Trump up to a 77% chance of victory. and their range of
Sam: estimates for the darker color here is all in the red now.
Sam: And did...
Sam: So New York Times' little needle for Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Sam: and Wisconsin is all still at toss-up, but leaning slightly towards Trump in all three.
Ivan: And their needle right now in Arizona is leaning slightly.
Ivan: Well, okay, I don't, I'm looking at this, I don't know if that,
Ivan: when it's at toss, if there's anything to read from that.
Ivan: the one that's gray, I'm not sure, because I see that in Arizona,
Ivan: you see how it's lean R right now for Arizona, but it looks about the same.
Ivan: I can't tell if there's a fucking difference.
Sam: I think there is.
Ivan: But yeah, I can't tell if there's really a difference.
Sam: Margin in Wisconsin with 44% vote in is 200 votes.
Ivan: No i'm looking at 2000 over here right now.
Sam: What new york new york.
Ivan: New york times 44 percent and yeah i'm looking at 732-690-730896 oh yep yep
Ivan: she's up in michigan she is behind pennsylvania right now and.
Sam: Pennsylvania is up to 51 percent.
Ivan: Yeah but again Yeah.
Sam: So Karnacki on MSNBC is going through various counties in Pennsylvania and showing
Sam: basically Harris is a couple percent behind where Joe Biden was in a bunch of
Sam: these counties, which would,
Sam: since Biden just barely won Pennsylvania, if that's a consistent pattern across
Sam: the board, that means Harris loses PA.
Sam: And there is no path without PA at the moment.
Ivan: But there is no pants without PA.
Sam: DGHQ puts Iowa to Trump.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. They called it. Yeah. Harris is ahead now in Arizona with 50% of
Ivan: the vote report, 51% of the vote reportings.
Sam: Yeah. That would be nice if that held on. Yeah.
Ivan: I know.
Sam: We're going to be waiting for vote by mail and crap like that over the next few days.
Ivan: Yeah. The problem is, of course, with Pennsylvania, with the margin where it
Ivan: is right now, it's just that it.
Ivan: So, so yeah, because they didn't start counting all those vote by mail.
Ivan: So it's what happened the last time too.
Ivan: That's why they, they, they got into the shouting match.
Sam: But, but also vote by mail this time is not expected to be quite as disproportionate
Sam: as it was before because Trump has been pushing remote options as well this time around.
Ivan: Wow. Question is, of course, if they did it, now one thing is it talking about
Ivan: it is he talked about it through both, both sides, you know, the mouth.
Sam: Well, yeah, but at least according to the number of ballots ordered in their
Sam: early vote numbers, the Republicans were leading Democrats in early vote, including mail.
Ivan: No no but but my thing is it just also depends on where you
Ivan: know where the okay the mail-in votes are or the the
Ivan: the amount but also where you know where they were ordered
Ivan: from yeah yeah what i'm saying i mean because when when you've got like
Ivan: montgomery county that's only 29 percent of the votes in right which is right
Ivan: i mean how much is that mail-in i mean which is that's you know it's very solidly
Ivan: blue i i don't know i don't know those are the key questions no What.
Sam: Do you think?
Sam: you wanted ulcers right,
Sam: okay so jonathan updates only 11 of philadelphia counted when i was canvassing
Sam: there they said there were about a hundred thousand registered dems in west
Sam: philly that did not vote in the last election the canvassing there was very thorough i.
Ivan: Mean i think he's right that's why you know This is like still in a toss up
Ivan: because it's just so many of those votes are there.
Ivan: I mean, that's, that's the, that's the, that's the key.
Ivan: I mean, I don't know. Some other state got called for Harris by, yeah. They got her 112.
Ivan: Let me see over in New York.
Sam: New York.
Ivan: Nah, DC and Colorado.
Sam: Yeah, I had DC, but New York has been called too.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Which again, not a surprise. you're not surprised so richard wants to know how
Sam: is wisconsin looking too.
Ivan: Close to call.
Sam: Too close to call but trump is leading with 48 of the votes in 49.7 to 48.8.
Ivan: I mean we're talking about 13 000 votes basically out of 1.5.
Sam: Million so yeah but again it's very tight need wisconsin,
Sam: any wisconsin i mean you could trade wisconsin for arizona but it seems unlikely
Sam: any wisconsin oh there it goes bitcoin hits all-time high as u.s election results
Sam: come in they they like donald,
Sam: pete says every four years i ask myself why do i do this to myself.
Ivan: Yeah i don't blame you jesus christ.
Sam: What do you got.
Ivan: New York Times has Michigan lean R right now.
Sam: No path without Michigan. You need all three of those.
Sam: And you know, if you get a situation where Harris pulls out Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
Sam: but loses Michigan, everyone's going to say it's all about Gaza.
Ivan: Well, one thing is that Wayne County is only 1% reported.
Sam: New York Times odds are up to 82% Trump. So DDHQ is down a little at 72.
Ivan: Georgia, pretty sure. The Gwinnett reported a large batch tonight.
Ivan: It's not enough to overcome Georgia.
Sam: Yeah, they're at 91%, and it's a three-point margin.
Ivan: Yeah, and DDHQ called, DDHQ called Georgia. Now that Gwinnett came in,
Ivan: DDHQ called Georgia for Trump.
Sam: Richard asks, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, PA, is all we are watching.
Sam: Pretty much. Bob says no one else is even close to that.
Sam: Yeah. And really, it's Wisconsin, Michigan, PA. Like...
Sam: me, me, Paris is still.
Ivan: I mean, say you lost Michigan and you get got Arizona and Nevada.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's I mean, that could be, but can't.
Sam: You know, Wisconsin blue again reported by Jonathan. I don't see it yet on my update.
Ivan: But no, I do see on DDHQ.
Sam: Yeah, but New York Times is ahead of DDHQ, though.
Sam: There are New York Times says 50 ddhq and we got 48 back red yeah and trump
Sam: is currently leading in ca as well,
Sam: john says philly's still at 11 i don't know at the moment i'm it's the michigan
Sam: lean czar that bugs me that means that new york times thinks that there are
Sam: more red votes outstanding than blue,
Sam: Harris did finally pull ahead in Virginia at 74% of the vote just fucking barely though.
Ivan: Yeah but there's still a lot of votes left.
Sam: New York Times has Michigan back at toss up Arizona.
Ivan: Has a 4,000.
Sam: Vote margin that's what I was about to say.
Ivan: Arizona is so retarded.
Sam: Trump has taken the lead by 0.2% in Arizona.
Ivan: Sorry. Fucking God damn it. I used the damn R word. Slap me, Sam.
Sam: Boom, boom, boom, boom.
Ivan: Sorry.
Sam: With 53% of the vote in. And yeah, New York Times has it lean R based on where those votes are.
Sam: Which is what I was saying in terms of like, don't count on Arizona to make
Sam: up a loss in the blue wall.
Ivan: I don't know. You know, I'm looking at this. And once again,
Ivan: a lot of the votes, you know, Maricopa is the, is, is, you know,
Ivan: the, uh, elephant in the room there.
Sam: It's only half in.
Ivan: It's, it's a, yeah, it's only half in. And the margin is 4,000 votes.
Ivan: I, it's just, you know, that's, yeah.
Ivan: Me, even Pima, you know, they, they're still, so that's, that's another one where.
Sam: Nebraska.
Ivan: Thanks. Yeah. Thank you for, thank you for, you know.
Sam: We had that a long time ago for the whole state.
Ivan: Yeah, fuck all of you. I mean, seriously. Thanks for nothing.
Sam: AOC was re-elected handling.
Sam: Philadelphia is now 56% reporting, by the way, John.
Ivan: Are they?
Sam: Philadelphia County, 56% of votes in.
Ivan: Montgomery at 39. Bucks at 35.
Sam: Philadelphia County.
Ivan: Philadelphia County at 56. Yeah.
Sam: And Trump currently up by 3% in Pennsylvania, sorry, not Philly.
Ivan: I mean, the good news is that 56%, and given that Bucks and those that have
Ivan: reported only 11%, 39% and whatever,
Ivan: and the remainder in Philadelphia County, which is like basically half,
Ivan: that's why it's a toss-up because it's...
Sam: New York Times up to 86% chance from three-hour lines in Nevada to vote still.
Sam: They're holding polls open to clear the lines. so no don't don't expect reports
Sam: of votes from nevada for hours again nevada.
Ivan: Dd dd hq has not really moved their estimate in any significant way.
Sam: Their percent odd.
Ivan: Yeah they're still it's yeah they're still around 70 30 which is around where
Ivan: it started yeah there and.
Sam: Reminder i was at 6436 on election graphs when it started.
Sam: I at least feel justified that I wasn't as far off. I wish I had been far off.
Ivan: No, but you're good. I may not like the results, but the data says what the data is.
Sam: Yeah. Margin in Arizona is down to 1,000 with 53% of votes in.
Sam: With Trump ahead.
Ivan: Yeah, by 1,000 votes. i don't like.
Sam: This is another one by the way and one of the reasons it feels like 2016 is
Sam: it seems like in the last week trump had given up yeah.
Ivan: I know which he did yeah he did that and i mean he was shocked when he won.
Sam: Yeah,
Sam: and this this ties into the you know i i didn't include it in my last blog post
Sam: on election graphs but I included it over and over and over in previous blog posts,
Sam: how Biden first and then Harris was consistently underperforming both Biden
Sam: and Clinton from the last two cycles.
Sam: And that's what we're seeing.
Sam: Yeah, Trump currently head in both Wisconsin and PA. If that holds up, all done.
Sam: Oh, no, all three now. Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA all have Trump leads at the moment.
Sam: They've got both. New York Times has both Wisconsin and Michigan as lean R right now.
Ivan: Yeah, I know. I saw.
Sam: And so does DDHQ. Jonathan says it'll be a long fucking time before a party runs a woman again.
Ivan: I sure hope not.
Sam: I don't know but it may be one of those things where the first one to win has
Sam: to be a Republican yes great,
Sam: oh we got Kansas did I already have Kansas no I didn't have Kansas,
Sam: not a surprise of course yeah Karnacki keeps pointing out like numbers in various
Sam: counties in like Michigan are looking like 2016 not like 2020 20 uh main one
Sam: goes to as expected to uh harris there's.
Ivan: One of the things so michigan's only at 26.
Sam: Bob's dropping out thanks bye bye bob bye.
Ivan: Bye bob good night.
Sam: Good night it.
Ivan: Tightened up a little bit now with the last batch of votes in michigan dow futures
Ivan: jump 500 points russell 2000 futures rise two percent as traders spent trump winning that's the.
Sam: You know the fact that the markets like
Sam: like are happy about a republican potential
Sam: win here even though the markets tend
Sam: to do better under democrats is just weird although i saw someone saying that
Sam: their expectation was the market would go up no matter what just because of
Sam: the resolution of the uncertainty but new york times is getting close to 90%
Sam: on their odds and DDHQ up to 78.5.
Ivan: Yeah. DDHQ number has been going up again.
Sam: Well, and it's all cause it's cause you know, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are red right now.
Ivan: Yeah, I know.
Sam: Well, so is Michigan. They're all red right now. Oh yeah. Bedtime for tea leaves as well. Good night.
Ivan: All right. Good night.
Sam: Good night, Pete.
Sam: John is dropping too, hoping for better news in the morning.
Sam: Me too, but it's not looking good, John.
Ivan: Not looking good right now. The DTHQ forecast is basically 254, 284 right now.
Ivan: The New York Times a little bit more. Not what we were expecting,
Ivan: what we were hoping right now.
Ivan: Tell you what, the margin in Pennsylvania has tightened up a little bit.
Ivan: They're all very tight. I mean, Wisconsin's 30,000 votes.
Ivan: Michigan, 50,000 votes right now, with only 28% of the vote in, by the way, in Michigan.
Ivan: PA is, what, 100,000 votes with 67% of the vote in.
Ivan: Montgomery County is the one that, I mean, oh, Jesus Christ.
Ivan: Well, I mean, the New York Times still has Pennsylvania as a toss-up for a reason.
Ivan: I mean, they definitely believe that that's getting tighter.
Sam: But the thing is.
Ivan: Michigan and Wisconsin are- The theme.
Sam: Though, as Kornacki goes over his boards on all of these states is,
Sam: over and over and over again, Harris is underperforming Biden in 2020.
Sam: And Biden won by the skin of his teeth.
Ivan: I mean, technically, you could lose one of Michigan and Wisconsin and gain Arizona
Ivan: and Nevada, but that's tough.
Sam: Yeah, but Arizona's not looking good.
Ivan: I mean, 53% of the vote in is 3,000 vote margin right now. Yeah.
Ivan: Not looking impossible.
Sam: But they have it as lean R for a reason as well.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: DDHQ gives Marino, Ohio for Senate, which looking at the numbers was like...
Sam: Brown was never ahead. McCormick is also leading Casey in Pennsylvania for Senate as well.
Ivan: Oh, get the fuck out of here. Yeah, one of the dissonances, you remember talking about.
Sam: The- Rodgers beating Slotkin in Michigan. Hovda beating Baldwin in Wisconsin.
Ivan: I'm looking at a DDHQ.
Sam: I'm looking at New York Times for those.
Ivan: Baldwin is ahead. I'm looking at, they have both, they have the opposite.
Sam: New York Times has 60%,
Sam: in the Senate race for those votes.
Ivan: I mean, Pennsylvania is getting tighter. It's down to 90,000 votes right now,
Ivan: but the needle's got it to lean R now.
Sam: Lean R for all three.
Ivan: Yeah, lean R for all three. Let me go make some more teeth.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Who is still on?
Sam: I know. Say hi for whoever's still on. There are three people here. One of them's you.
Ivan: No, one of them's me, so only two. Ah, all right, Bruce. No.
Ivan: Well, yeah, now we're down to two. So that would be... Ah, okay, it's only Bruce.
Sam: Bruce and us.
Ivan: I'm going to go make some tea.
Sam: All right, see you in a few minutes.
Ivan: I'll be right back.
Sam: Once you get back, I'll get something for me. California projected oh big shocker there.
Sam: Idaho, too early to call in Washington.
Sam: Well, Washington has one data dump today and then tomorrow.
Sam: Oh, feel free to make your comments and questions, Bruce. I will probably keep going.
Sam: I wouldn't be surprised if Yvonne drops at midnight Eastern,
Sam: but I have nothing else to do.
Sam: I plan to do this all night until there's nothing else useful.
Sam: So for your questions, let's see. Is there anyone else who could have done better
Sam: than Harris? Should they have had a brokered convention?
Sam: I think even if there is somebody that theoretically could have done better than Harris,
Sam: if like Biden had decided not to run two years ago and they'd had like an open battle,
Sam: if they had done anyone else other than Harris in some sort of brokered convention,
Sam: abbreviated primary or whatever, I think they would have ended up doing worse.
Sam: because it would have been divisive.
Sam: Harris was about as unifying as you could possibly get within the Democrats.
Sam: You, of course, had the issue with some of the left wing sort of holding back
Sam: because of Gaza, but you would have had that with any Democratic candidate who would have won.
Sam: So that was not different.
Sam: But yeah, I think Harris was their best bet.
Sam: And yeah, I think if If you were going to go for anybody else,
Sam: it would have had to have been in a scenario where Biden had announced way,
Sam: way back that he wasn't going anywhere or sorry that he wasn't running.
Ivan: The thing about this is it's just the results, what they are showing is that it didn't matter.
Ivan: I don't think it really, there wasn't any candidate that Democrats could have
Ivan: put up that would have won.
Ivan: For whatever reason, a large percentage of this country wanted Trump to be president again.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, they for some reason really truly believe that they were better.
Sam: They.
Ivan: Were better off with trump.
Sam: And as we were pointing out with that swing map like huge
Sam: portions of the country redder than
Sam: they were four years ago and specifically more
Sam: trumpy than they were four years ago even the blue even in the blue states they've
Sam: moved trumpier which is you know like and again from from the point of view
Sam: of yvonne and i at least like this would be perfectly understandable if the
Sam: nominee was Haley or somebody,
Sam: but it's, it's completely baffling with Trump.
Ivan: I think it's just extremely baffling to me that in the middle of an economy
Ivan: that has actually recovered so much from where it was.
Sam: Washington called, by the way.
Ivan: You know, an economy that improved vastly from where it was in Oregon too.
Sam: I think.
Ivan: And, and people in people's incomes are up there.
Ivan: There's a lot of things that are not Oregon yet are positive that people still,
Ivan: for whatever reason felt that if they were that, that the Democrats didn't do anything for them.
Ivan: And I mean, the stock market is up.
Ivan: Inflation came down. Wages are up.
Ivan: I, you know, I don't, I don't know what the hell else you, you do.
Ivan: I, I, I don't know. And, and I mean, I mean, this guy is a convicted felon and
Ivan: they wanted the convicted felon. Oh, oh, Richard is back. Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. Well, I don't know if you're hearing us, but Sam and I right now are very pessimistic.
Sam: The 88 seems about right like honestly yeah the odds they're giving we we and and ddhq has it it takes.
Ivan: It it takes a miracle right now.
Sam: I mean for.
Ivan: Harris to pull it out.
Sam: Yeah she has to catch up in wisconsin wisconsin wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania
Sam: they're all behind in all She's right under.
Ivan: She's, you know, behind in Pennsylvania by over a hundred thousand votes.
Ivan: I mean, she's behind in Michigan by 80,000 and she's behind in Wisconsin now by 50,000 votes.
Ivan: There is no, there is no path to get around that.
Ivan: You could, like I said, you could lose one and maybe there's a path around it,
Ivan: but not all three, not, not two. Definitely not all three.
Sam: We got Maine, Maine for.
Ivan: By the way, they call California.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah. That happened while you were gone. I mentioned it.
Ivan: No. Okay. I thought you said Washington State.
Sam: Oh, I, I, that was after I mentioned the others earlier.
Sam: and we got Maine all where's Maine all there
Sam: it is and and Oregon
Sam: as well okay still theoretically uncalled we could go from Harris by 68 to Trump
Sam: by 86 but that involves catching up in several uncalled states okay talk for
Sam: a minute Yvonne I'm gonna be back in just a minute so.
Ivan: I don't know because Richard came back in let me just do a recap of where the
Ivan: hell we are right now in the states that haven't been like officially like, like the, for example,
Ivan: Georgia decision desk called it already for, for Trump. New York times.
Ivan: Hasn't margin. The margin there is about a hundred thousand votes,
Ivan: but you got 93% of the vote in.
Ivan: I mean, highly unlikely you can overcome that right now at this point,
Ivan: North Carolina is about the same.
Ivan: Uh, you got 87% of the votes. Trump is up by about 100,000 votes Don't see a
Ivan: path there either at this point Pennsylvania's got 72% of the votes in and Trump is up by Jesus,
Ivan: now about 180,000 votes.
Ivan: There could be a way to make that up, but it's not looking good with 72%.
Ivan: Michigan, 90,000 vote difference right now. Trump ahead, 30% of the vote in.
Ivan: I mean, what the models are stating from this, that they've got them like all
Ivan: three at leaning Republican, is basically that from where the rest of the votes are coming,
Ivan: it's not expected to be able to make up that that gap right now you got 50 000 votes,
Ivan: wisconsin was 63 percent of the vote in but you know the one thing is that without
Ivan: pennsylvania forget about it i and and right now pennsylvania is 51 to 48 i
Ivan: mean it's not it's i mean unless,
Ivan: Pennsylvania somehow comes back.
Ivan: I mean, there is no path with Pennsylvania. You could theoretically do something
Ivan: losing one of Michigan or Wisconsin, but you can't lose both.
Ivan: Arizona right now, 4,000 vote gap, but still, I mean, you can't,
Ivan: yeah, that's not enough.
Ivan: You have that turns back. so so yeah so you know nevada's not in yet but none
Ivan: of that matters i mean if if if went with these three with with pennsylvania
Ivan: michigan and wisconsin it just doesn't really matter.
Ivan: So, I mean, oh, I.
Sam: Sorry, I'm back, but I can't hear yet. Headphones on.
Ivan: Hello, hello. Hello, hello.
Sam: Joe Biden, one year by eight points. And right now, we'll see in Lehigh County,
Sam: the city of Ballantown is in the majority.
Ivan: I mean, the trouncing in Florida is just ridiculous.
Ivan: I mean, by the way, Texas is not even close. Texas is about the same.
Ivan: It's 14 points, like right now, for Texas.
Ivan: Not, not, can you hear me?
Ivan: Sam? No, he can't hear me. And he's scrambling over there with cables.
Sam: Something else I would see tonight, this is, this is really,
Sam: I keep pulling it out because I keep seeing it.
Sam: I think it's important to know. and michigan and wisconsin or donald trump either
Sam: there we go i can hear again hello yvonne.
Ivan: Okay so i was mentioning that right now by the way texas the current vote at
Ivan: 81 percent reported uh trump is winning by 14 points so it's not not it's not
Ivan: even narrowly same as florida last time no not at all no.
Sam: Like last yeah yeah it's widening.
Ivan: His margin not at all.
Sam: 2020 significantly like the narrative.
Ivan: Has been for a while that like.
Sam: You know yeah texas is the white whale but it's getting closer each time no apparently not.
Ivan: No not not i mean basically it wound up looking the same as florida yeah and yeah georgia is,
Ivan: definitely very tight, but now North Carolina, the same, very tight, but now it's just.
Sam: You know, the 63. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
Sam: At the moment, you know, we were talking about the Colt, the polls are pretty
Sam: close to on. If anything, at this point, they underestimated Trump again.
Ivan: Yeah. Well, in certain places.
Sam: Well, well, no, I mean, even in like, no.
Ivan: In Wisconsin and Michigan. Yeah. They, they, they had Wisconsin,
Ivan: michigan and pennsylvania.
Sam: You know my average is that.
Ivan: Well pennsylvania was the average was slight uh trump slightly ahead but by 0.1.
Sam: It looks like he's gonna win by
Sam: three yeah i mean i mean that could still narrow that could work exactly.
Ivan: Yeah but but you know it's about where it was but the reality is in these three
Ivan: the margins are still within the margin you know when you look at.
Sam: Yeah they're all.
Ivan: They call it they were they were like relatively in the range of.
Sam: I mean we said the range of the air but texas and florida we said repeatedly
Sam: that all of these seven states could easily go either way they're easily going to the trump side,
Sam: but but yeah like the the ones that are off by a lot more yeah it will it'll
Sam: take a while to get final results i mean at some point i'll go through and compare
Sam: the final poll averages in every state to the actual vote results and fold them into,
Sam: you know, my preparations for 2028.
Sam: Honestly, I, that may take me a while. I don't know that I'll be doing that.
Ivan: By the way, Virginia is only Harris is ahead, but it's only by two points in Virginia.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Maryland in Virginia. Now Maryland is, she's up by 22 points.
Sam: Which is about what was expected.
Ivan: New York. It's like, it's a blowout too. It's about 14 points.
Ivan: So is Massachusetts. you know, those are,
Ivan: In, in the ballpark, Colorado is also a blowout 55, 43.
Sam: I'll point out, I'll point out too, assuming Trump wins this,
Sam: which is what looks likely at this point, it's a legit win.
Sam: You know, there's no like, oh my God, he cheated. No, it's a legit win.
Sam: It's just that a, you know, a huge portion of the population of this country wants this.
Sam: now he's still well actually like what are they updated uh and and harris will
Sam: still probably i think he's going to.
Ivan: Still lose the way yeah he's still she's still looking like she's going to win the popular vote.
Sam: Yeah when when when now it may
Sam: take a while for us to get to that count because california is slow but.
Ivan: Yeah right but but it's looking like it because the margin right now is only
Ivan: five million votes yeah without california which is only three percent of the votes and so yeah.
Sam: And california will take weeks to finish their count so right.
Ivan: But it's it's you know not just that if this is the case the republicans are going to keep.
Sam: That yeah they're going to have a trifecta you'll have and i can only imagine
Sam: the damage that's going to do we're gonna we're yeah,
Sam: we'll undoubtedly have this conversation in more detail on the on the main show
Sam: but like A Republican trifecta with Donald Trump,
Sam: a Republican Senate, and not just any Republican Senate and House,
Sam: but a MAGA Republican Senate and House is going to be absolutely disastrous.
Ivan: For the world.
Sam: Yep. I saw one post on Mastodon about an hour ago saying, well,
Sam: Europe, get ready to say hello to Putin. Yeah.
Sam: Yeah, Richard says this is catastrophic for Ukraine. Yep.
Ivan: Oh, hell yeah. Oh, yeah. And by the way, the idiots in Michigan that decided
Ivan: that they voted against heirs because of Gaza.
Sam: It's disastrous for Gaza.
Ivan: Yeah, just wait.
Sam: I mean, they want to build resorts there, right? Tear it all down and build resorts.
Ivan: Yeah. I mean, right now, Michigan is like right now, the margins up to like
Ivan: about almost 100,000 votes.
Sam: Yeah. And 6%.
Ivan: It's not even.
Sam: Bruce mentions on Rogan, Trump said that he'd start negotiation with Putin before
Sam: the inauguration, which is, of course, illegal. But who cares?
Ivan: Yeah. Nobody's going to prosecute him on anything.
Sam: We may, you know, that that's that his sentencing in New York may even be delayed
Sam: till after his presidency.
Sam: now i'm not sure he makes it through his four years but that's a whole other story.
Ivan: That's a whole other story and.
Sam: Then we get vance.
Ivan: Yeah great well i oh this is going to be a problem what.
Sam: Are your batteries running.
Ivan: Um my yeah my headphone batteries while recording you cannot change speaker
Ivan: settings of course because you have are a stupid Good application.
Ivan: Oh, God, Joe. He's got to be dying.
Sam: Yeah. And despite our conversation that he probably would have done worse,
Sam: you know he's there thinking, I could have won this.
Ivan: Okay, you know what? You want to argue that one now?
Ivan: Because I hate to break it to you, but these numbers look worse than what was
Ivan: in the polls before the switch to Harris.
Sam: Mm-hmm.
Ivan: Right now, these numbers look worse.
Sam: They were pretty bad. Like, he was behind by more than 5%.
Ivan: These are worse.
Sam: Well, and he's behind by 6%. Yeah, so it's about the same.
Ivan: These look worse.
Sam: I have to bring up the comparisons one by one, but yeah.
Ivan: Like I said, it was never a good idea to change candidates in the middle of
Ivan: the fucking thing. And to fucking, like, get rid of the incumbency.
Ivan: I'm sorry. But you know what? I love Harris.
Ivan: You know, I voted for her in the last election, but I said vehemently since
Ivan: the beginning that this was suicidal and it's showing exactly that right now. So fucking stupid.
Sam: So, of course, the the Harris campaign is saying, you know, they the absentee
Sam: ballots that are coming going to come in over the next few days are going to
Sam: turn things around. Blah, blah, blah. We'll see. We'll see.
Ivan: What is biden's to-do list probably going to try to do some executive actions
Ivan: on certain things i'm sure to try to start make things difficult in a certain
Ivan: way but i don't know who's going to stop trump right now basically when he's
Ivan: got the courts the house and the senate all on on his side to to do whatever
Ivan: the fuck he wants yeah there's no so um and.
Sam: And and as we've said before none of the people who acted as guardrails in the
Sam: trump first term will be there.
Ivan: Are there there.
Sam: Will the entire staffing of the administration will be in 100% based on loyalty and loyalty only.
Sam: And the willingness to say, yes, sir, I'll do whatever you want regardless.
Sam: And, and the court will back him up on anything too.
Sam: Like they made it clear through their immunity thing that there's no,
Sam: they don't believe there's no guard, no guard.
Sam: They believe the president, she should have close to absolute power.
Sam: They don't believe that Congress should have the ability to write laws that
Sam: restrict the president in how they manage their official duties.
Sam: And not that anyone, you know, not that like Congress would fight them over
Sam: if you've got a Republican trifecta as well.
Sam: So, yeah, it's just going to be, you know, they're going to do whatever they
Sam: want for four years, at least, maybe longer.
Sam: Because part of what they will do is,
Sam: and this is typical of the illiberal democracies like Orban and Hungary,
Sam: which they've specifically said they want to model off of, is they dismantle
Sam: institutions that would enable a robust opposition and make it harder and harder
Sam: for anybody to go against the power.
Sam: That's how these work. It's not an outright like quote unquote dictatorship.
Sam: It's a, you break down all the institutions of the state so there are no protections
Sam: against the people in power doing whatever the hell they want.
Sam: no guardrails that's what
Sam: the deep state is for and yeah
Sam: it's going to be a rough four years you will
Sam: see you'll probably also see a lot of state versus federal battles in blue states
Sam: like this one like washington state where the blue states try to maintain some
Sam: level of what they want and the federal government fights against it and well.
Ivan: Those fights are going to be.
Sam: Horrific so.
Ivan: Yeah could biden force netanyahu wrap things up probably he could.
Sam: No no he would have some no there are no.
Ivan: Actually there there are certain things where well okay hear me out here depends on you you kept.
Sam: Talking about unchecked presidential power well biden has it right now yeah but.
Ivan: Okay exactly so you know what you could fuck hell hell i'll fucking like put
Ivan: an aircraft carrier outside tel aviv and fucking tell him i'm gonna start fucking
Ivan: bombing the shit out of your military unless you stop right.
Sam: Now but it's not gonna happen you know it's not gonna happen.
Ivan: Well and i know biden is not gonna do it i'm saying that that could be i don't know i would.
Sam: The the needle is now at 90 so the harris campaign is uh saying they're not
Sam: conceding tonight there's too much outstanding.
Sam: They're going to continue to wait to see how the votes come in.
Sam: Harris's theory of the case in Pennsylvania is that they may be underperforming
Sam: Biden elsewhere in the state, but they're overperforming in Philadelphia,
Sam: and they're hoping that'll be enough to make up for it.
Sam: I don't know. Seems like grasping at straws at this point.
Ivan: There's just not enough votes left. The margins right now are 200,000 votes.
Ivan: There's not enough votes left.
Sam: So here's the quote from the Harris team.
Sam: Let's see. I'll read you the whole memo. In Pennsylvania, we overperformed turnout
Sam: expectations in Philadelphia and overperformed in our early vote expectations in Bucks County.
Sam: We don't have election day results from Philadelphia, but we do know that we
Sam: overperformed turnout expectations there and have seen especially high turnout
Sam: in places with large non-white and student populations.
Sam: We expect to see higher turnout in Philadelphia than in 2020.
Sam: Outside of Philadelphia, we have limited data on turnout and support right now,
Sam: but what we do have is tracking with our expectations.
Sam: We are awaiting more results like everyone else and hope to get a closer read in the coming hours.
Sam: In Michigan, we are awaiting a significant amount of votes to come in.
Sam: The city of Detroit won't be reported out until roughly midnight,
Sam: but we have seen strong turnout throughout early vote and election day there.
Sam: Other results in Michigan are harder to parse since results are coming in more
Sam: piecemeal than elsewhere.
Ivan: They're right about that. I'm looking at indefinitely. There's like Wayne County
Ivan: only reported 1% of the votes.
Sam: In Wisconsin, we know there is a significant amount of vote remaining in Dade
Sam: and Milwaukee counties, and we are seeing signs of strong performance in the
Sam: Wow counties where we have partial data.
Sam: We don't expect complete results from Wisconsin until tomorrow morning between 3 and 5 a.m.
Sam: And then a summary of all this. While we continue to see data trickle in from
Sam: the Sunbelt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral
Sam: votes lies through the Blue Wall states, and we feel good about what we're seeing.
Ivan: Not neither of them look good. There's just, I just don't.
Ivan: There's a 200,000 vote gap in Pennsylvania. You might make it close.
Ivan: You're not going to get over that. In Michigan right now, it's 120,000 vote gap.
Ivan: I know it's only 36%, but that's also a massive gap.
Ivan: And in Wisconsin, it's a 70,000 vote gap with 70% of the vote in.
Ivan: I mean, it has the possibility that the New York Times is giving it right now.
Sam: Yeah, that's about 10%. I think that's reasonable, given what we're seeing.
Sam: Impossible, no. Likely, no.
Ivan: Not likely.
Sam: I will report at least my unopposed wife won re-election.
Ivan: Wow. That's good news. It is. I'm not being facetious.
Sam: I haven't actually checked the results since she was unopposed,
Sam: but because there was no even registered write-in vote, even if there were write-in
Sam: votes, they wouldn't be counted.
Sam: So I just asked her, she's, she's at a, an election night party for her district.
Sam: So I just asked her what the mood is there, given what everyone's seeing and
Sam: how at least the local people were doing.
Ivan: I mean, literally right now, every swing state is looking like it's going to Trump.
Sam: Yep. I think we said, yeah.
Ivan: I mean, every.
Sam: Single— And by the way, going back to election graphs, if you looked at not
Sam: the straight-up values, but my probabilistic thing,
Sam: the median result was Trump by 86, which is what he would get if he won every swing state.
Ivan: I mean literally every swing state.
Sam: Yes yeah the the only ones that i was reading is even competitive in my final
Sam: blog post were wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania and she's behind all of those.
Ivan: She's behind on all three.
Sam: I shouldn't say even competitive all seven were competitive they were all within
Sam: the range of margin of error the.
Ivan: Tightest one but the tight those were the.
Sam: Yeah like if if you looked at like where not just where the current number is
Sam: but where they'd been bouncing around those were the only three that spent a
Sam: significant amount of time on the blue side of the line our senator can't well
Sam: won re-election that wasn't really a surprise,
Sam: and barb and and.
Ivan: And and here's the crazy thing gallego is running far ahead of cary lake which
Ivan: by the way this is what the data was.
Sam: Showing yeah it was like.
Ivan: I remember talking about how the hell you know but slotkin is losing against rogers in michigan,
Ivan: montana she is crushing tester right now very few of the votes in but still,
Ivan: Cormac is beating Casey.
Sam: Yep. I mentioned that a while back and it hasn't changed.
Ivan: No. And Texas cruises cruising by 10 points. It's not that close.
Sam: Yeah. No, it looked close for a little bit, but no.
Ivan: And Baldwin is losing too.
Sam: I mentioned that a while ago too, and it's sticking. Yeah. Across the ball.
Ivan: It's just updating right now where it is.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: No. Yeah. Like, so they're going to have a decent,
Sam: i mean we all expected the most likely outcome was the republicans would take
Sam: the senate because the democrats had to like be perfect across the board but
Sam: they yeah they're picking up a decent number it's not just they're gonna take
Sam: the senate they're gonna no they're gonna take it with a decent margins.
Ivan: Yeah yeah and looking.
Sam: At the house district first battleground house flip of the night per ap the
Sam: democrat one in new york's new york's 22nd.
Ivan: That's good i'm looking at the house and for whatever reason the house is not looking as bad.
Sam: You think that yeah that would be a mute no.
Ivan: That would be yeah i'm looking at it's not looking as as as bad no whatever
Ivan: the fuck reason this fucking.
Sam: Psychopathic goddamn election.
Ivan: Yeah it isn't actually looking as bad no oh it's fucking ridiculous how.
Sam: AP finally called North Carolina long time after GDHQ did,
Sam: Let's see, are there any states I'm missing in your little log?
Sam: Let's see. No Hawaii yet, of course.
Sam: Nebraska, too, isn't called by anybody. New Mexico, not called yet.
Sam: Minnesota, not called yet.
Ivan: Not called, but yeah, she's way ahead. Yeah, she's taking Minnesota.
Ivan: Okay, the margin in Michigan is narrowing for whatever reason.
Sam: And Michigan is only at 39. but and.
Ivan: Wisconsin is also narrowing too.
Sam: Actually it's.
Ivan: Narrowed a little in.
Sam: Pennsylvania but not i was about to say that pennsylvania has narrowed a little
Sam: bit too but probably not enough but it's narrow enough.
Ivan: But it's narrowed but yeah i mean michigan has definitely narrowed a lot,
Ivan: now wisconsin is narrowed by about 20 30 000 votes too so well i mean i'm guessing
Ivan: there is a reason why because dvhq usually i mean we'll call them like.
Sam: They're they're aggressive about i'm assuming.
Ivan: They're yeah i mean there's gotta be a reason they haven't called them yet.
Sam: Well i i mean i i i
Sam: presume it is just the straightforward there's a lot of mail-in ballots that
Sam: are going to be called over the night counted over the next few days yeah and
Sam: they're and one of the things that is an unknown at this point is the breakdown
Sam: of like of those ballots yeah we who.
Ivan: The fuck knows.
Sam: Because we don't know because the behavior is not the same as 2020 and is not
Sam: the same as 2022 no so that's got to be the reason that's and that's what the
Sam: harris campaign said uh they just new mexico for harris duh,
Sam: For some reason, I was missing Louisiana and moving over. That was a long time
Sam: ago. Okay, that's taken care of.
Sam: Virginia for Harris, we already had that a long time ago.
Sam: Okay, so this means the only solid places where their margins were over 10%
Sam: and the averages that haven't been called yet are Hawaii,
Sam: just because their polls are still open for who knows how many more hours,
Sam: and nebraska cd1 which is undoubtedly just because they're lazy and haven't called it yet.
Ivan: I'm guessing simply like trump.
Sam: Hasn't declared.
Ivan: Victory right now because he sees that that.
Sam: Cd nebraska cd1 is actually really close
Sam: right now oh fuck but
Sam: not that it would make a difference to anything but it's actually
Sam: this is one of the ones where i remember on their curmudgeon
Sam: scored slack i said oh look at this 49 points might be a surprise harris win
Sam: but trump is still ahead there just barely yeah and they have it rated as very
Sam: likely r so i presume they have some knowledge of what parts i.
Ivan: Mean and even with more votes in an arizona it's still only a couple of thousand votes so.
Sam: We're going to have another generation of left-leaning people who in four years
Sam: are going to be like don't make the mistake i made in 2024,
Sam: the people who wanted purity and couldn't possibly vote for harris well.
Ivan: But i look i i Look, on another point,
Ivan: and, you know, see when the vote totals are finally tallied up,
Ivan: but seeing how so many places turned redder, I mean…,
Ivan: Obviously, there's a lot more of the MAGA people.
Ivan: It's not just people that sat on the sidelines not looking like that.
Sam: It's a big game. It's not just.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And like I said, even in the blue states, they've moved red.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Sam: I mean, I'm looking at the arrows start to show up for here in Washington and in California.
Ivan: Yeah, I can see. I can see. they're.
Sam: All trending red.
Ivan: Yeah you know
Ivan: i was talking the other day talking to
Ivan: somebody saying what's wrong with the with the
Ivan: u.s look what's wrong with the u.s look we voted the germans
Ivan: had the biggest turnout of far-right
Ivan: candidates that had in a long time it's a worldwide the italians voted for maloney
Ivan: the french you know had even though you know they held on they had they had
Ivan: a very big turnout on that side as well the reality is that the uk,
Ivan: had to spend a significant period of damage
Ivan: you know we we spent four years with trump but
Ivan: the ruse spent like over a decade with the conservatives in in charge and it
Ivan: wasn't really until after the entire wholesale destruction from from brexit
Ivan: that it became painfully obvious to everybody that they had gotten completely
Ivan: screwed over and they finally tossed them out in mass,
Ivan: but it took them to reach rock bottom from that.
Sam: I'll look at a look into our future. I just saw a post on Mastodon from Kim Schreitenberg.
Sam: So, uh, going, going to what I was speaking about, about gains,
Sam: even in blue areas, Trump made double digit gains in New York city,
Sam: up 5% in Manhattan, up 10% in Queens, up 6% in Brooklyn. Uh,
Sam: Sorry, what were you going to say? You looked like you saw something interesting.
Ivan: No, I saw something, but the decision desk has some bad data on their thing
Ivan: where it showed, like, Michigan that Harris is ahead, but they double counted something.
Sam: Oh, yeah, that's clearly bullshit. I'm looking at it, too.
Ivan: No, I'm like, what?
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: And I'm like, no.
Sam: It jumped to 60-30, Harris. No, no, no.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. That's not true.
Sam: You know, the other thing people are pointing out is once again,
Sam: Trump, the gains with Latinos were real.
Sam: Now you always point out differs by where they're from, but yeah,
Sam: but they, you know, despite like the whole, oh, he burned a whole lot of bridges
Sam: in that rally at MSG, apparently not as much as people liked him.
Ivan: Okay. DDHQ fixed it.
Sam: Oh and their their minnesota numbers went to.
Ivan: Zero wait but but wait yeah but but wait but they're showing that the margin
Ivan: in michigan is down to only 30 000 votes.
Sam: But they've only got 42 percent in new york times has 71 percent in.
Ivan: No for michigan sorry.
Sam: Michigan yeah 43 percent at new york times too then.
Ivan: Yeah they're they're at the same percent but they're showing only a margin of
Ivan: 30,000 votes in Michigan.
Ivan: Actually, they got 75% for Wisconsin. They're showing 100,000 vote margin in Wisconsin.
Ivan: But Michigan, I mean, am I reading this right?
Ivan: Yeah. They're showing only the margin narrowed to 20,000 votes in Michigan.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: But Pennsylvania is not getting any tighter.
Sam: Well, yeah. I mean, and it sounds like the Harris campaign isn't even expecting
Sam: it to tonight they're like counting on mail ballots that aren't even going to get counted tonight,
Sam: now even then like it seems like a really freaking tall order which is why we're
Sam: like like new york times is down to nine percent now and i still think that
Sam: sounds about right what's ddhq's number now uh.
Ivan: It's close to that.
Sam: 12%. Oh, and we got main two and main one called.
Sam: Main both in this expected direction.
Sam: Main two Oh, wait, I already had main one. Main two is called now.
Ivan: It's not like people voted for Jill Stein or something. I mean,
Ivan: Jill Stein, I'm looking at Wisconsin, 9,000 votes. Bobby Kennedy got 12. Chase Oliver got seven.
Sam: Much smaller than the margin between the candidates right now.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Michigan maybe.
Ivan: Like, Jill Stein's got 18,000. Bobby Kennedy's got 11,000. Chase Oliver's got 20,000. That may be.
Ivan: But not in Pennsylvania. It's like 200,000. Chase Oliver's got 27,000. Jill Stein got 27,000.
Ivan: I mean, not, not enough to really.
Ivan: Okay. There's an interesting one. Okay. So we couldn't get the abortion ban done.
Ivan: Apparently in Missouri that they voted to end the state's abortion ban.
Sam: Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's just interesting.
Sam: The, the, the swings in the last couple of weeks in confidence,
Sam: like the reporting was two weeks ago, the Trump campaign was super, super confident.
Sam: And the Harris campaign was shaky. One week ago, the Trump campaign was feeling
Sam: despondent, and the Harris campaign was on top of the world.
Sam: And now, obviously, it's the reverse again. Jeez.
Ivan: Anything. Well, Arizona's abortion measure also passed. So that's two.
Sam: It's just your state that failed.
Ivan: Yeah. They did vote 57% for it, but the threshold was much higher.
Sam: 60%.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. But they did vote 57% for it.
Ivan: I mean, it's weird. I mean, you got 57% for Trump, but 57% for the fucking abortion
Ivan: measure, but still not enough.
Ivan: A Republican won the governor in New Hampshire.
Sam: That's normal for New Hampshire.
Ivan: Yeah, I was remembering that.
Sam: I mean, he's replacing Sununu or something, isn't he? Or was Sununu with that gap?
Ivan: Yeah, I think it was Sununu. Yeah, I think it was Sununu.
Ivan: coloradons voted uh also passed abortion rights this is not good my headphones
Ivan: are about to die i don't know what the hell well.
Sam: It's about midnight are you gonna tap out.
Ivan: I i i can't sleep right now so i'll stay and stick around for a bit but i i
Ivan: gotta have to switch i don't know what the hell i'm gonna do just.
Sam: Put it on speaker see if it's a bad echo.
Ivan: Okay well hang on okay Okay, well, let me try.
Sam: You don't have any wired headphones around?
Sam: Bub's recording has stopped due to media disconnect.
Ivan: Yeah, I know.
Sam: Disconnect and reconnect.
Ivan: Yeah. Okay.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Well, the live feed seems to have stopped. No, it's gone.
Sam: Hopefully, did it say your recording uploaded?
Ivan: Yes, it did.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: The Harris margin right now in Virginia has gone to four.
Ivan: So, yeah, I mean, the projections were back up. Yeah, back up to what the.
Sam: I mean, I expected just over five, but four is close.
Ivan: It's still 88%. And so, yeah, I mean, it's trending towards what, you know.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: What was expected.
Sam: Well, Harris wins Hawaii.
Ivan: Wow. Another shocker.
Sam: I'm surprised their polls are already closed.
Ivan: You know, what time is it? Why right now? It's like five hours.
Ivan: Well, it's seven, right?
Sam: Yeah. Okay. That means the only area with a greater than 10% margin in the polls
Sam: that is yet uncalled is Nebraska one.
Ivan: I mean, Arizona is really like stupidly tight, but it doesn't matter.
Ivan: i mean without fucking and.
Sam: People keep calling out the only swing state that has been called so far is
Sam: actually north carolina but the trends everywhere else are like okay yeah it hasn't been.
Ivan: Called yet well decision desk called georgia and i trust their judgment on that
Ivan: yeah yeah i'm not you know i.
Sam: Agree i agree.
Ivan: I i i trust their judgment it's so a the.
Sam: Ap and the major networks haven't yet called georgia but.
Ivan: But it's it's it's it's it's done yeah it's done it's done,
Ivan: 95 of the vote is in and the
Ivan: margin is 200 plus thousand votes now and
Ivan: i mean it's not not not happening pennsylvania might as well be done soon i
Ivan: mean i well but but again that goes back the fucking mail-in ballots i don't
Ivan: know how many of those there are and i and i'm guessing that DDHQ also has the
Ivan: same doubt, which is why they're not calling it either.
Ivan: Right. Because otherwise they would have called it like Georgia.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: So they've got, that's gotta be their thinking. There's no other reason they
Ivan: wouldn't have called it. I mean, they don't hold back.
Ivan: And Michigan is back to like 60,000 votes.
Ivan: And Wisconsin is like 80,000 votes.
Ivan: But is there anything special about mail-in ballots, complete unofficial results
Ivan: until the morning after the election?
Ivan: In some places, absentee ballots are counted as central facility reported in large batches.
Ivan: So that's also another thing with Wisconsin, where, shit, he had a lot of late ballots too.
Ivan: So I guess I have to, you know, I would be looking at it right now,
Ivan: and I would have been, like I said, with other states, fuck it, whatever.
Ivan: But I know that DDHQ, if they thought it was so in the bag, they would have
Ivan: pulled the trigger on it, and they haven't. So obviously they,
Ivan: and they do know something that we don't.
Sam: Yes. Yes.
Ivan: So, oh, I just realized it's funny. I got it. Where am I?
Ivan: Why am I? Do you have the sound on or what? What is that? You have the TV sound over there.
Sam: Yeah, that's TV sound over here.
Ivan: I'm like wondering where the fuck is that sound coming from?
Sam: I don't have it that loud. I have it so I can.
Ivan: No, no, no. But that's the thing. So I was like wondering, do I have like something
Ivan: like very faint going on around here?
Sam: Not that it's very much, but just to say, both New York Times and DDDHQ have
Sam: moved slightly back on their needles from where they were a few minutes ago.
Ivan: Yeah, I'm seeing that.
Sam: Slightly. Well, like, instead of a 10% chance.
Ivan: A 12% chance. Again, there's something they're seeing that we're not. Okay?
Ivan: I mean, there is something they are seeing that we're not.
Ivan: I mean and also with Arizona look most okay so,
Ivan: Arizona 7,000 vote margin most voters cast ballots by mail full tabulation takes 10 to 13 days so,
Ivan: that's you know up in the air.
Sam: I don't even have that set up a plug.
Ivan: Nevada they haven't released anything so we don't know about that but And the
Ivan: thing is that if you look at, and I, and I, you see, let's see Georgia, for example, right?
Ivan: If you look at the needle, how Georgia is showing at New York times,
Ivan: look at Georgia, it's flat pinned to R. Okay.
Ivan: All right. Even though they haven't called it, it's flat pinned to R. All right. Okay.
Ivan: But look at the PA, Michigan and Wisconsin ones. They're just. Yeah.
Sam: The margin is close to the same.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, they're very tiny.
Sam: Well, presumably it's all about knowing which districts have yet to report.
Ivan: Yeah, no, and they know that and they know how many ballots are coming in and
Ivan: what the potential margin of those are.
Ivan: And so, which is why they can't call it.
Ivan: Because it's enough to move the needle, so to speak. Fuck.
Ivan: You know, at least it's not Florida that did, as everybody like on pins and
Ivan: needles. Although I wish it was.
Ivan: I mean, we really had a lot of MAGA people move into the state.
Ivan: I mean, it's just, they really came from other places in the last five years.
Ivan: I mean, it's just crazy.
Ivan: Well, the incumbent party candidate won the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election. Okay.
Ivan: The 39% of the vote. The second place came this candidate that he is for independence,
Ivan: but he did a coalition with another party that isn't for independence to try to beat them.
Ivan: But they came in second at 32%. The party that advocates the current status,
Ivan: they came in third at 21%. So, yeah, they got that.
Ivan: Now, I'm going to see something interesting.
Ivan: Apparently, they also pulled the people on a symbolic presidential vote to see what they voted for.
Ivan: I'm very curious to see what the vote was. Okay.
Ivan: Puerto Rico, the symbolic vote, 73% for Harris, 26% for Trump.
Sam: By the way, alert just hit. The Republicans are officially called in enough
Sam: states to take the Senate.
Ivan: Oh, well, I already said that.
Sam: We already said this like an hour ago, but it's like the alert just came across the wire.
Ivan: Fucking slow people.
Sam: Yeah. So, you know, this goes back to like when the Democrats had the trifecta
Sam: a couple years back, they needed to be aggressive.
Sam: They needed to like kill the filibuster, make states, expand the court, all that kind of stuff.
Sam: Okay, Bruce has another question. Could COVID migrations have affected the political map?
Sam: North Carolina, Georgia, more red because of a migration.
Ivan: I don't think so much Georgia and North Carolina. I mean, Georgia and North
Ivan: Carolina got tighter, I would say, but Florida for sure.
Ivan: There is just, you know, we've had so many incoming migrations that there is
Ivan: no other way that the state flipped that hard, you know, in that direction without
Ivan: those incoming migrations.
Ivan: Because we really, really had, during COVID, and with a lot of people,
Ivan: and I will add also a lot of people that decided to work remotely,
Ivan: that happened to be Republican-leaning, for the most part.
Ivan: You know, no state income taxes, no whatever, whatnot.
Ivan: You had all those things. And that, you know, basically a lot of people,
Ivan: hedge funds, other things, whatever, they moved here. Okay?
Ivan: And so, yeah, I mean, I do think that that definitely is something that had done that.
Ivan: But even though Georgia and North Carolina are a little bit tighter, not by that much.
Ivan: It's not the way that it's in Florida.
Ivan: I mean, Florida, the last time, the margin was five, six points.
Ivan: This is 13 points right now.
Ivan: This is, you know, it was six points the last time around.
Ivan: We went from two points with Hillary, six points in 2020 to 13.
Ivan: Now that's, that's, that's just, that's a vicious move.
Ivan: That's, you know, Georgia and North Carolina, you know, they,
Ivan: they moved maybe a point or two, but that's it.
Ivan: So, so no, they, they, I mean, they, you know, North Carolina Democrats have
Ivan: never won Georgia. Unfortunately, they won in 2020 once, but they hadn't won it before.
Ivan: Obama had won Florida in 2012, but it's gone from an Obama won in 08, Obama won in 2012,
Ivan: but Hillary lost by a narrow margin, and then that just accelerated into 2020 and 2024.
Sam: So Bruce wants, Bruce also said North Carolina, Georgia close, but more red than 20.
Sam: And Bruce wants to know, is the left coast more blue now than,
Sam: than 20? Let's look at the map.
Sam: No, all three West coast states got redder than 2020.
Sam: I'll put the link back in the, in the chat for the, the thing,
Sam: but there's practically no place in the country so far.
Sam: No full state in the country.
Ivan: Yeah, I'm looking at the election shift map, and it's across the board.
Sam: It's across the board, redder everywhere. I mean, they're scattered blue arrows,
Sam: but almost every place has moved redder than it was in 2020.
Sam: I mean, and this is the bottom line summary of the race is Harris underperformed
Sam: Biden in 2020, and Biden barely won.
Sam: And this is like, I keep going back to that tipping point chart comparison I
Sam: had on election graphs over and over showing 2024 versus 2020 versus 2016.
Sam: There was consistently that Donald Trump was doing better this time around than
Sam: either of his two previous runs.
Sam: And the only way to square that situation with the reality is,
Sam: well, the only way to square that was a possible Harris win was the polling
Sam: error at the end was different.
Sam: Like the polling underestimated him and maybe this time it would underestimate
Sam: her without a polling error.
Sam: Nope. You know, it's that picture of the race where Harris was running behind
Sam: both the paces of Clinton and of Biden was accurate, was accurate.
Sam: Now, in terms of comparing to Biden, Biden was also before he dropped out way
Sam: behind that his pace for four years ago.
Ivan: Right yeah and.
Sam: People have said like look there are lots of headwinds like despite the guy
Sam: with the keys there were a lot of headwinds in terms of you know the economic
Sam: situation and some other stuff even though the economy was theoretically doing
Sam: well like repeatedly people were people were saying over and over in polls they didn't feel like it.
Ivan: But look look look again facts don't matter look
Ivan: facts don't matter it's all about feeling it's it's it's it's all
Ivan: listen it's all about what what the messaging was that people people believed
Ivan: the message okay you know it's like i said when you look to the polls you you
Ivan: pull the people 70 percent of them say they're doing great better than ever
Ivan: and then those same people say that the country's doing like shit that means that that you know it,
Ivan: As has been shown by other, how do I say other propaganda, other people that
Ivan: have used propaganda widely against, you know, to win support and propaganda works.
Ivan: I mean, you, you just lie through your teeth and there's a lot of people that
Ivan: if you create the lie, that really fits the narrative.
Sam: Well, and this is, this is one thing that specifically Trump broke the taboo against.
Sam: I mean, like, it used to be that Republican, Democrat alike,
Sam: there was a modicum of you had to base your arguments in truth in some way.
Ivan: Some way, yeah.
Sam: Trump proved that that was completely unnecessary.
Ivan: Yep.
Sam: You could say whatever the hell you wanted, repeat it over and over again,
Sam: and people would believe it.
Ivan: And people would buy it. Yep. Yep, yep, yep. By the way, DDHQ has moved out the other way to 8%.
Sam: Okay. Yep.
Ivan: But still haven't called but still haven't called any of them right um they've
Ivan: got rich rich rich says the economy.
Sam: Is going to be a shit show by the way.
Ivan: Yeah i i i i do expect at some point that he is going to cause a significant
Ivan: recession because a lot of the things that he has proposed every economist is
Ivan: analyst analyze do you think he's actually.
Sam: Going to do all the tariff stuff he said he was going to do.
Ivan: It's tough to tough to know with him i don't know Because part of.
Sam: His theory of the case was a lot of that is under presidential power that he
Sam: doesn't even need congressional authorization.
Ivan: Well, he already did. He already imposed tariffs.
Sam: He did a bunch, right? Like he wants to do like much, much more.
Ivan: But, but look, as we have known before, you know, it's all about the grift. So I don't know.
Sam: Oh, Nebraska too, officially called.
Ivan: So I don't know. Will he? I don't know.
Ivan: I mean, who knows with him what he's really going to do.
Ivan: So I see on New York times, Wisconsin at 78% of votes in, and it's a margin
Ivan: of about a hundred thousand votes. Okay.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: I'm looking at DDHQ they've got a little bit more of the votes reported and
Ivan: they actually have about the same margin there are about 100,000 I'm just trying
Ivan: to compare what they are both showing,
Ivan: Michigan DDHQ has more votes in than New York Times they got 55% of the vote
Ivan: they're showing a margin of about 70,000 votes in Michigan okay,
Ivan: New York Times has 52% in they're now showing a margin of about,
Ivan: 85,000. It's a little bit wider. Okay. The issues margins are narrower.
Ivan: Let's see. Pennsylvania, 87% of the votes in. Margin now is,
Ivan: it's narrowed down to 170,000.
Sam: That's still a lot.
Ivan: That's still a lot. Still a lot. DDHQ has basically around the same number.
Ivan: 84% in, 170,000 votes. 6 million counted.
Ivan: But again, neither of them have called it.
Ivan: I mean, I would expect, I mean, I see that, I mean, I mean, the issue obviously
Ivan: feels it's trending towards that, but this has got it at 8% chance,
Ivan: but obviously they don't feel comfortable with saying it's not.
Sam: Yeah, I see I see someone on Mastodon saying, hey, I remember in 2020 going
Sam: to bed with all things pointing towards Trump and Biden still won.
Sam: But remind me, because I'm having trouble remembering, like it was looking not
Sam: great for Biden at this time four years ago, but not this bad.
Ivan: I, I, I, I.
Ivan: It was looking bad. I just don't remember how exactly bad it looked.
Ivan: but it looked better because that
Ivan: night they had called arizona for him so i
Ivan: think that that definitely was uh
Ivan: what was was different and georgia was not called i mean i know most haven't
Ivan: called it but ddhq hadn't called it now they haven't called they they called
Ivan: it and i'm pretty sure that they're they're right i looked at the numbers i
Ivan: mean new york times hasn't called it but I mean, they got, I mean, Trump's got George.
Sam: We got Nebraska one called finally by DDHQ.
Sam: So this means we now have all of the states, all of the states and congressional
Sam: districts with margins over 10% have now officially been called.
Sam: What's left uncalled officially.
Sam: Minnesota has not been called. Wisconsin has not been called.
Sam: michigan pennsylvania georgia nevada arizona and alaska that's all that's left uncalled.
Ivan: The margin has narrowed to 100 you know somewhere around 150 000 votes 170 000
Ivan: votes depending on pennsylvania but it's not,
Ivan: but i'm looking at yeah mich
Ivan: the one michigan has i mean new york
Ivan: times has a lot wider a margin
Ivan: than than ddhq but they are behind ddhq in terms of how much vote they're they've
Ivan: tabulated they're only at 50 now they've moved up to 54 they were 52 now they
Ivan: moved up to 54 ddhq's at 56 yeah so bruce.
Sam: Says gotta go thanks for having this thank you for joining us Bruce it's good to.
Ivan: Have you I think.
Sam: That leaves you me and Richard thank you also Richard for joining us I am cuckoo too.
Ivan: Well look,
Ivan: Richard just said he's going crazy look I mean over what I mean I mean are you going crazy because,
Ivan: Trump won yeah there are very likely one maybe that's.
Sam: Waiting on PA numbers that we're supposed to drop around midnight.
Ivan: Yeah well I I mean unfortunately I'm in my I even though there is a narrow very narrow,
Ivan: path to a victory perhaps less than 10%.
Ivan: I don't see it likely right now at this point.
Ivan: At this point, I am at the point that I am accepting.
Ivan: I have bargained into my acceptance of the fact the people of our nation have
Ivan: duly democratically decided that this is the country that they want.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: And so that's...
Sam: So it's... It's...
Ivan: Not it's not by it's not a cheat it's not whatever it's not uh that's what people voted for.
Sam: Stupid electoral college but that's the rules everyone was playing under.
Ivan: But like when it fucked the electoral college when i'm looking at that the majority
Ivan: of people in the states of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin yeah have decided
Ivan: that this is what they want and florida well florida Your neighbors.
Ivan: Yeah. Well, I'm saying those because...
Sam: Because those are the ones that make the difference. Yeah.
Ivan: Those were the ones that really made the difference tonight.
Ivan: I mean, nobody expected Florida. I mean, it would have been a miracle.
Ivan: But that... It's not even my neighbors directly. You know? I saw in our county, Harris won.
Sam: Right.
Sam: So Richard says, I work alongside many mega folks, so I have been apprehensive for some time.
Sam: The people of our nation apparently do not listen to anything he says. He doesn't mean that.
Ivan: Yeah. Well, it's, it's, it's like I mentioned what happened to the British leaving
Ivan: the Tories running their country for so long until they completely jammed it into the ground.
Ivan: And unfortunately, the people in this country, I mean, they let W did it, do it.
Ivan: Then the Republicans decided that their way out of it was just to lie about
Ivan: who did it, then blame Obama for not fixing it fast enough.
Sam: Richard says, I'm literally the bottom of the barrel, Puerto Rican and Haitian.
Ivan: Yeah well i know but i
Ivan: mean we are i mean they they like
Ivan: like like sam was saying we are
Ivan: with a candidate that has succeeded in convincing all of these people through
Ivan: a barrel load of full-throated lies and and you know he's figured out that propaganda
Ivan: that works, and they'll believe it.
Ivan: If he repeats it often enough with conviction, they'll believe it.
Sam: Well, and as Richard said, also key to this is A, well, a few more keys to this.
Sam: A, they don't often believe it. When he says the worst things,
Sam: they still say, yeah, he says that.
Sam: That's just him talking. He doesn't mean that. He's not going to do that for real.
Sam: and whereas we tend to take him deadly
Sam: seriously as in he
Sam: may not he may or may not succeed and do it but he wants
Sam: to do it he was stopped so many times
Sam: from doing worse things in his first administration and those
Sam: guardrails are all gone and second a lot of them haven't heard the stuff in
Sam: the first place no you know that because their media ecosystem completely insulates
Sam: them from the worst of what he does and says. So they haven't even heard it.
Sam: They just think, you know, he's the one standing up for us.
Sam: He says the things we think, the racist things we think, the sexist things we think. But yeah.
Ivan: No, transphobic things we think, homophobic things we think,
Ivan: xenophobic things we think.
Sam: And so, I mean, the things that he has explicitly said over the last few weeks
Sam: that he intends to do right away when he hits office are horrific.
Sam: They're going to, if he even remotely succeeds in 10% of them,
Sam: so many people are going to be hurt badly.
Sam: And if he does the things he says he's going to do on the economy,
Sam: he's going to tank the economy immediately too.
Sam: So, you know, our best hope at this point is he doesn't actually do all the
Sam: things he said he was going to do or once again he ends up you know surrounded
Sam: by incompetence who can actually pull it off.
Ivan: I'm not watching this fucking inauguration i i avoided watching the last one
Ivan: i'm not fucking watching this one i don't.
Sam: I mean.
Ivan: I actually got forced into watching the last fucking.
Sam: Inauguration i well you mean i was at an airport you mean trump's or not biden's
Sam: i well and and look i presume biden's gonna attend i.
Ivan: Presume biden will attend.
Sam: Yep and harris yeah They're going to sit there and do their duty in a way that
Sam: Donald Trump will not, would not.
Sam: And I presume Donald Trump is going to treat them with complete disdain at that event too.
Ivan: Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Sam: Jon Stewart ended his live daily show tonight with, I just scrolled away. Hold on.
Sam: I get it back. With, this is not the end. We have to continue to fight.
Ivan: I'm tired, Sam.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: And I'm very tired.
Sam: Yeah. And I presume you mean existentially, not just because it's 1230.
Ivan: Yeah, exactly.
Sam: Yeah. I mean, it's depressing. Like, it's not going to be good.
Ivan: Kathy mentioned that apparently somebody's trying to make money,
Ivan: at least on this. So she's put into Slack that apparently, uh,
Ivan: there was a call mat on CNN tonight. Apparently.
Ivan: Yeah. I'm sure that that'll get some good.
Sam: Good timing. Yeah.
Ivan: Well, the AP, the AP just called New Mexico for Harris, according to something I just saw.
Sam: They're a little slow too, but you know.
Ivan: I can fuck you. The fuck?
Sam: Uh, yeah. Yeah. I'm looking at all these.
Sam: There's no substantial change in the situation in any of these states in the last hour.
Ivan: No, no, nope.
Ivan: What's that beeping? What do you got beeping over there?
Sam: Nothing. Nothing exciting.
Ivan: Nothing interesting?
Sam: Nothing interesting. I'm thinking we might still get a call in Minnesota today.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I think they're...
Ivan: I will say this.
Sam: They're going to hold off on...
Ivan: The margin in Georgia has narrowed
Ivan: somehow a lot. is down now to about 140,000 votes, but not enough.
Sam: Yeah, we're still talking 3%.
Ivan: About 120,000 votes. I mean, there's 5% of the vote outstanding,
Ivan: but 5% out of, what, 5-6 million votes?
Sam: Well, this is why DDHQ is called that one.
Ivan: Yeah, I know.
Sam: I don't know why New York Times is being slow, but... Same with they're being
Sam: slow with New Hampshire for some reason.
Ivan: How many votes were in Pennsylvania last time around?
Sam: The total votes? I don't know.
Ivan: Yeah. I'll look that up. Let's take a look.
Ivan: 3. 6.7 million votes. Okay. 6.7 million.
Ivan: We are at six.
Ivan: so basically it's reasonable to expect yeah it's reasonable to expect another
Ivan: 700 800 000 more votes to count for pennsylvania yeah for pennsylvania that's
Ivan: you know yeah that's a decent number but that's a decent number um so.
Sam: You in order to think you would flip it though you need to have a good expectation
Sam: that those are going to be predominantly d.
Ivan: Or you just don't know what they are which is why you're not which is why you're
Ivan: you're holding up on calling okay right well yeah,
Ivan: so yeah because it is a it is a decent chunk of votes i i just i looked up the
Ivan: number because yeah that's it's a lot michigan 2020 so then shall let's see
Ivan: what how much let's see how many we got,
Ivan: okay okay,
Ivan: Michigan had about about 5.4 million votes okay so where are we now Michigan.
Sam: Richard by the way says the American carnage speech will be like a fairy tale
Sam: compared to the next inauguration that's.
Ivan: What I yeah that's why I said I'm not watching the.
Sam: I read the comments out loud because anybody just watching the video.
Ivan: Oh yeah, sorry. Oh yeah.
Sam: Or listening when I attach this to the end of our next podcast.
Ivan: All right, Michigan. There are over 2 million votes to be counted.
Ivan: right yeah holy shit yeah out.
Sam: Of compared to three already in so.
Ivan: Yeah so there's like two million votes to be counted.
Sam: Which is why like 58 of votes.
Ivan: And yeah which is why okay which that goes why the dhq hasn't called it okay
Ivan: all right so because that's a lot of fucking votes and apparently there's a
Ivan: lot of uncertainty of where they are okay so wisconsin let's see,
Ivan: 2.7 million counted right now. Let's see how much we got last election.
Ivan: Okay.
Ivan: 3.2 million around there. 3.25 million.
Ivan: How many we got in Wisconsin counted so far? 3.25, 3.25?
Sam: About three. A little under three.
Ivan: Well, no, I'm saying 2.7.
Sam: Yeah, a little under three. That's what I said. 2.7.
Ivan: So we got half a million votes in in wisconsin but really i mean in pennsylvania
Ivan: michigan there's i mean pennsylvania is showing 89 but the reality is i guess
Ivan: it's i don't know how they're doing.
Sam: Well the thing is a lot of it's.
Ivan: 89 that percentage has always been a little bit tricky.
Sam: Well it's often in the past it was often precincts reporting which isn't really
Sam: right percent of votes but precincts reporting doesn't really make sense for
Sam: mail-in ballots so it's it's a really rough estimate and like and they can guess
Sam: what the total turnout will be but they won't know so right so that's.
Ivan: Why yeah so so.
Sam: So my i'm getting here's what i'm thinking i think we might get a call from
Sam: minnesota tonight but they are not going to call arizona wisconsin michigan
Sam: or pennsylvania tonight no i don't think I don't think anybody's going to call
Sam: any of those states tonight.
Ivan: No, and I see the amount of votes left over. Yeah, and I see the amount of leftover
Ivan: votes, and that's why they're not calling it.
Ivan: Because it's a lot of votes.
Ivan: I mean, is it looking good for Harris to win, like I said?
Sam: No.
Ivan: No. But there's definitely a lot of fucking votes left, which is why they're not calling it.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Fuck. And Arizona is not going to probably release any results right now.
Ivan: So...
Sam: I'll be back in just a minute.
Ivan: Okay oh.
Sam: Nbc is finally getting around to saying the senate's going republican.
Ivan: Oh god well too jesus you know welcome to the party assholes uh harris.
Sam: Not expected to speak at her thing in howard university today pictures of the
Sam: crowd with everyone looking glum.
Ivan: Oh so i i i richard i i know that you're very this is very upsetting uh but,
Ivan: i don't you text richard texted me to see if i can say something that was comforting
Ivan: in some way i don't i can uh i don't i don't really have there's.
Sam: Nothing comforting to say right now,
Sam: no harris's campaign chair is speaking at howard right now.
Ivan: What i can what i can,
Ivan: it's just not much that I can say that is positive.
Ivan: I mean all I can say is that trying to think what it is John Stewart said the
Ivan: fight's not over but I'm exhausted.
Ivan: I think that the one thing is that just make sure to take care of yourself take
Ivan: care of your families take care of your friends,
Ivan: and do what you can just to make sure that you those around you are safe as
Ivan: best as possible because unfortunately,
Ivan: not and look especially we can control especially.
Sam: For those in your life who are in minorities that will be endangered by this.
Ivan: Yeah you.
Sam: Know because,
Sam: people's lives, I'm losing my voice. People's lives will be destroyed by this.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: You are already seeing it with people dying because of the abortion bans,
Sam: but the way that they are,
Sam: Cracking down on trans people, making it harder for gay people,
Sam: making, you know, and despite the increases in minorities who apparently voted
Sam: for Trump tonight, making it harder for all minorities.
Ivan: I was trying to say something to make them feel better. You're not helping them.
Sam: Yes, yes. Yes, yes. You're right. Take care of each other. That's what you were saying. Indeed.
Ivan: Yes. um i mean that's the best we can do you know and it's not even a thing
Ivan: oh yeah i don't know it's just that simple and like i was saying before i mean we've got a fucking,
Ivan: surge of authoritarianism that is on around the fucking world.
Sam: Yeah while i was gone richard had mentioned the courts being further packed
Sam: hello Judge Cannon I would not be surprised in the slightest.
Ivan: By Justice Cannon I know I thought.
Sam: You were done reassuring.
Ivan: People and now we can.
Sam: Like slam people.
Ivan: Again now we can go like oh yeah thumbs up no I'm not giving a fucking thumbs
Ivan: up I'm giving this fucking finger where did you get my fucking thumbs up stupid computer thumbs up,
Ivan: stupid fucking thing.
Sam: New York Times up to 93 percent ddhq up to 94.
Ivan: Well how.
Sam: Did we call oh george has been called too so let me just move that over.
Ivan: Oh yeah yeah finally yeah yeah post on that i'll globe and char one that i called
Ivan: it at least this is so weird,
Ivan: ddhq has the michigan margin with
Ivan: 64 in at 50 000 votes okay new york times with 62 percent reporting has them
Ivan: at jesus over 200 000 votes swing so ddhq has it much tighter in michigan are they are they behind or.
Sam: Ahead in their count.
Ivan: They're ahead okay two point two percentage points So.
Sam: Richard has two questions. One, Fannie Willis got reelected.
Sam: How bold will she try to be? My answer to that is it won't matter.
Sam: Once he's sworn in, all state proceedings will be paused until the end of his presidency.
Ivan: It won't matter.
Sam: It won't matter.
Ivan: None of this will matter.
Sam: And I expect the same on New York, too. Like when they delayed the sentencing
Sam: till after the election, like at this point, I would not be surprised if the
Sam: sentencing is further delayed until after the presidency.
Sam: So, you know, we've only got a couple of weeks until that sentencing is supposed to happen.
Sam: I will be surprised if it does.
Sam: He, he also, Richard also says, if I were Jack Smith, I'd be afraid for my life.
Sam: There are a bunch of folks. I mean, I, I saw Cohen.
Sam: You know, Trump's former right hand man has said explicitly that he's already
Sam: been making plans to leave the country and already has a place that he is going to go.
Sam: He's already arranged for the documents and it's his contingency plan that as
Sam: soon as if Donald Trump was reelected, he'd be leaving immediately.
Sam: There are a number of people, I think, who will feel like they're in danger.
Sam: This also reiterates, by the way, the importance of like, it's inexcusable how
Sam: slow the process to deal with January 6th was after it happened. It's also like.
Ivan: All these people are getting pardoned.
Sam: All of these people are going to get pardoned. Absolutely. All of the January
Sam: 6th people are going to get pardoned.
Sam: He's going to end the prosecutions against himself, obviously, as soon as he's sworn in.
Sam: but you know all of that stuff should have happened faster and more aggressively and all.
Ivan: Right i don't want to keep talking about this.
Sam: You know there's all kinds of stuff you know woulda coulda shoulda right but
Sam: didn't so yeah yeah i'm actually surprised donald trump hasn't officially announced
Sam: his victory yet but he's i'm.
Ivan: Gonna i'm gonna tell you why because.
Sam: Because he doesn't know he.
Ivan: Was gonna do it exactly he doesn't have.
Sam: To he doesn't have to he can wait he can wait he can wait like the whole the
Sam: whole announce early thing was if he was behind he's not yeah this is a this
Sam: is a legitimate straight up win he doesn't have to play shenanigans yeah up
Sam: to 95 percent at new york times for.
Ivan: Oh yeah,
Ivan: when are you going back to work.
Sam: Monday Hey, but Yvonne, look at the bright side. You're going to have RFK Jr.
Sam: in charge of health care.
Ivan: Yeah, that's going to be very helpful, of course.
Sam: NBC is slow. New Mexico, they're calling.
Sam: Oh, Alaska's about to close. Yay.
Ivan: By the way, right now, Trump is winning Bucks County, 50 to 49%.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: I don't see where any of this comes from. There isn't anywhere in Pennsylvania
Ivan: where there's enough votes to make this change.
Ivan: I mean, if he's got Pennsylvania, he's got it. He's done.
Sam: Well, and he's got all three. He's got all three.
Ivan: It's just you know which i mean it's just they're ahead in account i mean they're
Ivan: ahead and counting i mean so it's
Ivan: like 92 yeah you know once you call pennsylvania that's it it's done so,
Ivan: like everybody said tipping point was pennsylvania well you know where you have
Ivan: it yet i mean technically.
Sam: Technically speaking you move pennsylvania over right now there's still a couple
Sam: paths if you know but impossible not realistic paths given the rest of the map we're seeing.
Ivan: Yeah i mean yeah you take pennsylvania you'd.
Sam: Have to give them back michigan wisconsin arizona nevada.
Ivan: And that there's just the numbers aren't i
Ivan: mean there's such a huge discrepancy between ddhq
Ivan: michigan vote counts and new york time vote counts is as they were ahead i mean
Ivan: ddhq has more i mean ddhq shows a much tighter race oh okay and they've counted more okay votes.
Sam: Oh, yeah. In Michigan?
Ivan: Yeah. It's a big difference. It's not small.
Sam: Yeah, I can see why you aren't going to be calling Michigan.
Ivan: No.
Sam: Pennsylvania is harder to justify. Unless you know there's a lot of...
Sam: Well, you mentioned the expected number outstanding is a lot still.
Ivan: Yeah, it's still a lot. you probably got about at least half a million votes
Ivan: in Pennsylvania right now where they're at right now in Michigan you got about 1.5 million,
Ivan: Wisconsin though,
Ivan: I mean well and I'm looking at early reporting Nevada but only 17% Donald's
Ivan: up Arizona Donald's up I mean he's up on.
Sam: Everything on all so
Sam: nate cohen's summary from 35 minutes ago another
Sam: hour has gone by but the story is still the same trump is
Sam: favored in each of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin and
Sam: we'll just have to wait longer to see whether maybe just maybe harris will do
Sam: better than expected in key democratic areas but the the and it's better than
Sam: expected not just in general but because she's been under underperforming everywhere today i.
Ivan: Don't know how i'm gonna try to get some sleep the fuck do i got what's my calendar
Ivan: looking like tomorrow jesus.
Sam: Richard says i have to be at the hospital in seven hours and have no idea how i can sleep yeah try.
Ivan: To get some rest richard because it's not.
Sam: I um you guys call a night okay bub's recording failed recording has stopped
Sam: but everything up till now has been saved tell them to stop and restart well
Sam: i guess i lost okay i'm holding on,
Sam: and yvonne is back.
Ivan: Well the youtube recording is keeping the recording going right yeah.
Sam: Well the riverside said it saved your stuff okay.
Ivan: I don't know it's just for some reason.
Sam: I should have multiple copies of everything here if needed i'm.
Ivan: Just um fab.
Sam: Yeah i mean it's yeah i i mean,
Sam: i i am in i don't know i was gonna say disbelief but not really i mean i knew
Sam: this was a possibility yeah.
Ivan: We knew we knew.
Sam: It was a possibility.
Ivan: We i mean.
Sam: But i i really really hoped that this was not the path that would be taken like
Sam: i continue to be dumbfounded and disappointed by my fellow Americans.
Sam: I mean, this is, this is a very, very dark path we are heading down.
Sam: New York Times now has Pennsylvania as very likely are, pegged on that side.
Sam: Michigan at lean. Wisconsin at lean.
Sam: They're up to greater than 95% chance on their odds. And DDHQ is at 94%.
Ivan: I don't know. I don't get people.
Ivan: I don't understand why. They're just seduced by this.
Sam: You want us out of time to stop, Yvonne? I'll go another 15 minutes.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Okay. You got work in the morning?
Sam: Where's my mouse? Okay.
Ivan: Yeah. In 2020.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Hillary Clinton got in Florida 4.5 million votes. Kamala Harris got this time around 4.647 votes.
Sam: Which state was that?
Ivan: Florida. know that harris got
Ivan: 150 000 more votes than clinton right trump
Ivan: got 4.6 million in 2016 he got 6.1 million this year i mean 1.5 million more
Ivan: votes and this is and and this is while harris got also 150,000 more votes over,
Ivan: you know, what's his face?
Ivan: 2020, Harris way has underperformed, but 5.3 million votes, 4.6 million.
Ivan: Trump went from 5.6 to 6.1 million. I mean, he got more votes.
Ivan: He just got more people.
Ivan: It's not like Dems, I mean, that's what I was saying about people moving,
Ivan: it's not like Dems turned away as much, well some did, I guess,
Ivan: because we've got 5.3 million from Harris, but I mean, shit,
Ivan: I mean Harris got more votes than Hillary Clinton still not enough right,
Ivan: I mean by the way, Trump won the Tampa area Okay,
Ivan: that had been reliably democratic in the past.
Ivan: I mean, I'm looking through every election.
Sam: Trump is about to give a speech.
Ivan: Oh, God, I don't want to hear it. I don't fucking care. I don't want to listen to this clown.
Ivan: Not just the day did we lose Tampa. It went Republican, but Miami-Dade went
Ivan: also, which even in 2020 was Democratic.
Ivan: I highly doubt he's going to be magnanimous.
Sam: No, he doesn't have that in him. Roger Stone's back.
Ivan: Oh fuck who is talking now.
Sam: Some random reporter at the venue that Trump is heading towards.
Ivan: Isn't he at fucking Mar-a-Lago I mean I would have assumed.
Sam: Yeah I think he's at Mar-a-Lago well now he's coming from Mar-a-Lago the event
Sam: is at some larger place some big looks like a hangar or something,
Sam: uh fox declares pennsylvania for trump.
Ivan: I mean actually ddhq just did as well actually ddhq has declared trump the winner.
Sam: Yep well what okay yep that will do it.
Ivan: Yeah that's it.
Sam: So the range at this point is the best harris could do is to lose by two electoral
Sam: votes if she ran the table on everything that hasn't been called yet,
Sam: which isn't going to happen.
Sam: And Trump's best is still to win by 86, which is what looks like will probably
Sam: happen unless some of these states flip from where they are right now.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. That's what I'm still going to like.
Sam: Which is what the median case of my uniform swing model said was Trump by 86.
Sam: So DDHQ hasn't officially declared him the winner yet. Cause they haven't died.
Sam: Their red bar to two 70 includes states that he's ahead, but they haven't called yet. But.
Ivan: No, I was actually looking at the one that they declare Trump's.
Ivan: They have a check mark right beside the two 70.
Sam: Oh yeah, they do. Well, but yeah, but that, but the two 70 is based on including
Sam: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona.
Ivan: I don't know.
Sam: No, you're right.
Ivan: No, no, it doesn't.
Sam: No, I didn't know you're right. And they have the same count I have. So what am I saying?
Sam: I have 270 as well in that Harris's best case is the 268 to 270 case,
Sam: which is what they have there.
Sam: But that is assuming a couple of the states that are really ahead.
Ivan: Yeah, Minnesota. So that's 223. I mean, she's not ahead in Nevada.
Ivan: She's not ahead in Arizona.
Ivan: Maybe she pulls one of those out. Well, he got 223 plus.
Ivan: Oh, he hasn't called Maine. Harris is ahead.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: And by the way, I'm not even sure if this time he doesn't really win the popular vote.
Sam: He might at this point. It's going to be close.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I mean, I think there's probably a significant chunk in California that might put Harris.
Sam: Like, it's going to be close. It's going to be close. So popular vote could still go either way.
Ivan: Yeah because he's ahead by five million votes like right now oh god i got some,
Ivan: It's stupid columns already out.
Ivan: Could a Trump victory offer an unlikely opening to an American renewal?
Sam: You can be quiet, Chetsky.
Ivan: California has repealed Proposition 8, which I don't know which one it was,
Ivan: and enshrined same-sex marriage rights in the state constitution.
Ivan: So I don't remember which one was Proposition 8.
Sam: There we go.
Ivan: I guess it's time for me to try to...
Sam: Okay we'll close this out any.
Ivan: Parting shots you want to record for posterity.
Sam: No we'll collect our thoughts a little bit record a show later in the week but just,
Sam: this is i i keep
Sam: thinking about the quote about the
Sam: start of the cold war about the the lights going off
Sam: or was that start of world war two anyway the
Sam: lights going off around europe or whatever this is
Sam: this is ushering in what's going to be a very dark period in u.s and world history
Sam: i don't see any way around that like one way or another it's going to be bad
Sam: and just like a lot of these other dark periods in world history people voted it in.
Ivan: They wanted it.
Sam: Yep these.
Ivan: People wanted it.
Sam: Yep and we'll see how it
Sam: goes i mean i i my
Sam: the best hope at this point is
Sam: that all of us are wrong and that it won't be
Sam: nearly as bad as we fear i mean
Sam: you know people people pointed out over and
Sam: over again for the last trump administration see all
Sam: the things you said would happen didn't all happen it wasn't
Sam: that bad but it was
Sam: it was really bad for a lot of people it was really bad
Sam: for a lot of people yes and you know most of the like the majors haven't done
Sam: the final calls yet but it but you know ddhq and the hill have and it's clear
Sam: if you combine If you combine the calls from the various people who've made calls,
Sam: it's clear, like, we're done here.
Sam: So, it is what it is.
Sam: And we'll all have to figure out how to live in that universe.
Ivan: Okay. All right. Well, I'm signing out. Okay.
Sam: And I'm just going to sign out, too. So, thank you, everybody who joined the
Sam: live stream. and anybody who listens to this later as well.
Sam: I'll include some version of all this at the end of our next episode, undoubtedly.
Sam: And that's it. Prepare yourself for Trump too.
Ivan: All right. Good night.
Sam: Good night all.