WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:05.270 Testing one, two, three. There we go. Hey folks, this is Sam from the future. 00:00:05.270 --> 00:00:11.390 I'm recording this intro message on November 7th at 1537 UTC, 00:00:11.390 --> 00:00:12.890 but just wanted to let you know, 00:00:13.050 --> 00:00:18.530 as we mentioned on the show last week, we recorded a curmudgeons corner sort 00:00:18.530 --> 00:00:24.030 of live show reaction to election results as they came in. 00:00:24.730 --> 00:00:29.270 And by the time you're listening to this, I'm sure you know the results of that election. 00:00:29.850 --> 00:00:35.030 President Trump handily won re-election. The Republicans took over the Senate. 00:00:35.430 --> 00:00:41.770 The results in the House haven't fully been official yet. The Democrats still 00:00:41.770 --> 00:00:45.830 have some hope there, but it's not looking good for them, to be honest. 00:00:46.010 --> 00:00:48.790 It's probably going to be the Republicans taking the House. 00:00:48.950 --> 00:00:55.850 But those are the overall results. but Yvonne and I recorded a six and a half 00:00:55.850 --> 00:00:58.550 hour live show reaction. 00:01:00.010 --> 00:01:06.390 And, you know, Yvonne, Yvonne's basically like, I have no energy left to talk 00:01:06.390 --> 00:01:07.970 about any of this stuff anymore. 00:01:08.610 --> 00:01:13.330 And, you know, frankly, we already did six and a half hours. 00:01:13.590 --> 00:01:15.510 That's, that's a lot of stuff. 00:01:15.950 --> 00:01:20.150 So what we're going to do here, I was going to put the live show at the end 00:01:20.150 --> 00:01:23.970 of any new show we recorded this week anyway, but I think we're just going to 00:01:23.970 --> 00:01:26.450 leave that live show as the show. 00:01:27.570 --> 00:01:33.010 So this I'll be including like, it's not going to be the whole six and a half 00:01:33.010 --> 00:01:37.370 hours because I'm going to run it through software that like eliminates like 00:01:37.370 --> 00:01:41.810 gaps where nobody's talking and stuff like that. So it'll be shorter. 00:01:41.930 --> 00:01:45.750 I don't know how much shorter, but I'm not actually going to go through and 00:01:45.750 --> 00:01:47.430 like carefully edit it or anything. 00:01:47.430 --> 00:01:51.010 I'm just going to dump it into my software that takes out the ums and ahs and 00:01:51.010 --> 00:01:55.450 takes out the silences and it is what it is. So you'll get to sort of hear the 00:01:55.450 --> 00:01:59.550 slightly abbreviated version of our live show. 00:02:00.030 --> 00:02:05.930 If you actually attended the live show, there were about eight people listening 00:02:05.930 --> 00:02:10.450 and commenting and interacting with us as we recorded, which was a lot of fun. 00:02:10.630 --> 00:02:14.390 Then obviously you've heard a lot of this already. So maybe you skip this. 00:02:14.510 --> 00:02:19.750 We will be back for our full sort of normal reactions and talking about things 00:02:19.750 --> 00:02:25.830 next week. Give a little bit more time to digest the results and the implications 00:02:25.830 --> 00:02:27.890 and all of this kind of stuff. 00:02:28.050 --> 00:02:34.370 But I think, you know, rather than record a brand new normal show, 00:02:34.370 --> 00:02:39.750 we're just going to let the live stream be our show this week because, 00:02:40.010 --> 00:02:42.410 you know, it was a lot anyway. 00:02:42.970 --> 00:02:50.930 That's the idea. So folks, here's our live stream recorded starting at just 00:02:50.930 --> 00:02:58.770 about zero UTC on November 6th, 2024. 00:02:59.990 --> 00:03:05.930 So election night, basically, and Tuesday night in the US. Here we go. 00:03:37.590 --> 00:03:44.010 Hello, everyone. Let's wait till we got the thingy and do the checks. 00:03:46.370 --> 00:03:53.430 Okay, we are here. My live stream checker thing isn't working. 00:03:53.670 --> 00:03:59.330 So I'm gonna have to manually tell curmudgeon's corner chat that we're live. 00:03:59.610 --> 00:04:02.670 And Yvonne's late. Yvonne is late. 00:04:04.090 --> 00:04:07.530 um posts copy post. 00:04:19.970 --> 00:04:25.110 Okay so everybody as this goes through and i know there's nobody actually here 00:04:25.110 --> 00:04:29.530 on the live stream yet yvonne's not even here but we'll just be reacting to 00:04:29.530 --> 00:04:33.810 the various things as we go So there have been two states called so far, Vermont and, 00:04:34.130 --> 00:04:38.230 or three, Vermont, Kentucky, and Indiana, it looks like, from various places. 00:04:39.270 --> 00:04:44.230 No surprises there. I'm actually working in another window in getting my little 00:04:44.230 --> 00:04:50.450 spreadsheet set up so I can track the, you know, when we actually get any swing 00:04:50.450 --> 00:04:53.090 states called, how that reduces the range of possibilities. 00:04:53.510 --> 00:04:56.750 But it'll be a little while in the evening till we get that, I think. 00:04:59.750 --> 00:05:02.690 Hello, Yvonne. Oh, welcome. 00:05:03.630 --> 00:05:06.850 We've had a few states called already, but none that are surprises. 00:05:07.070 --> 00:05:08.650 Kentucky, Indiana, and Vermont. 00:05:09.110 --> 00:05:11.630 I see that. Yes. 00:05:12.130 --> 00:05:15.790 I'm in the other window setting up my little spreadsheet, which I didn't do 00:05:15.790 --> 00:05:18.570 beforehand to track these as they get called. 00:05:20.630 --> 00:05:26.890 But I am very glum at this moment. It's not that I'm just not. 00:05:27.830 --> 00:05:33.250 It's it's not that I I I'm just I I'm I'm dreading just. 00:05:33.690 --> 00:05:35.490 Yeah, I mean, I am. 00:05:35.630 --> 00:05:37.390 I am. I am just not. 00:05:38.010 --> 00:05:43.370 Let's talk about like, I mean, let me let me throw this in. 00:05:43.750 --> 00:05:46.330 Come on, you stupid thing. Stop doing that. 00:05:47.290 --> 00:05:52.910 So what do you think right now? Like right now, I am cautiously optimistic. 00:05:53.490 --> 00:05:59.050 I feel like there's been a lot of stuff building in the last week that seems 00:05:59.050 --> 00:06:03.650 like semi-evidence that the polls have been underestimating Harris. 00:06:03.870 --> 00:06:09.050 On the other hand, I don't feel like I can trust my feelings on any of that stuff. 00:06:09.050 --> 00:06:20.650 Here is my whole problem is that it's just. 00:06:20.750 --> 00:06:23.330 You know, yes, yes. 00:06:23.710 --> 00:06:33.510 It's just, you know, it's very, very, you know, the results are, you know. 00:06:35.150 --> 00:06:36.590 Are, yes. 00:06:37.170 --> 00:06:41.030 It's just that the outcome of this is very binary. 00:06:41.710 --> 00:06:49.070 Yes, it is. Like, if it really is as close as everyone thinks it might be, 00:06:49.070 --> 00:06:51.270 if it's not a blowout by one side or the other, 00:06:51.730 --> 00:06:58.170 then it's just going to be like a few votes on one side or the other makes a 00:06:58.170 --> 00:07:01.730 massive difference for the rest of our lives. 00:07:02.270 --> 00:07:02.850 Yeah. 00:07:05.270 --> 00:07:08.110 I mean, yeah, and I guess that's it. 00:07:11.750 --> 00:07:18.870 So I just, I don't know. I, you know, so I don't know. 00:07:19.170 --> 00:07:24.650 I'm just, I don't know. My emotions the whole day ran the gamut. 00:07:25.710 --> 00:07:34.570 I'm not going to, you know, I was feeling, I said, I felt surprisingly not stressed. 00:07:34.570 --> 00:07:42.230 Like I will say like a two in the afternoon, but as the hour that polls were 00:07:42.230 --> 00:07:49.550 to close, started approaching my level of anxiety grew exponentially. 00:07:50.370 --> 00:07:50.890 Right. 00:07:51.310 --> 00:07:55.870 And so, you know, I, yeah, I, I. 00:07:55.950 --> 00:07:59.030 I, I, I, I'm using all of this right now. 00:07:59.330 --> 00:08:00.550 And so that's, yeah. 00:08:00.610 --> 00:08:03.390 You need your phone located. I'll locate your phone. Hi. 00:08:05.550 --> 00:08:09.410 yeah i mean and i i've i've. 00:08:09.410 --> 00:08:14.690 I will say that i i there is a surprise i mean you know we're talking about 00:08:14.690 --> 00:08:23.810 that trump was ahead in florida by it's beeping by a lot and right now it's 00:08:23.810 --> 00:08:27.350 51 48 in florida and the first returns that are in. 00:08:27.350 --> 00:08:29.790 Well yeah i mean you can't. 00:08:29.790 --> 00:08:34.470 I'm first first returns are first returns i know and first returns for first 00:08:34.470 --> 00:08:35.990 returns he can't really you know, 00:08:36.850 --> 00:08:41.470 but well i'm not i'm not saying you know trump is winning florida i'm just just 00:08:41.470 --> 00:08:48.470 i mean i i think yeah i i don't know who the fuck knows why the fuck am i i mean this is just, 00:08:49.510 --> 00:08:56.590 i hate this uh yeah i'm just i i i i i i this this this whole thing has just been, 00:08:58.920 --> 00:09:05.500 so fucking trading to get to this point. You know, 00:09:07.700 --> 00:09:15.720 I'm really probably channeling the anxiety of millions right now at this moment 00:09:15.720 --> 00:09:20.740 where it's just fuck, I mean, what is going to be the outcome? 00:09:21.580 --> 00:09:23.980 You know, what the fuck is going to be the outcome? 00:09:24.440 --> 00:09:31.680 And look, the vibes for Harris in the last week have been good, 00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:35.060 but you know, you can't trust vibes. 00:09:35.700 --> 00:09:41.920 No, that's the thing. I mean, the, the, the story of the last week has been 00:09:41.920 --> 00:09:45.740 that the Harris folks are like two weeks ago. 00:09:46.220 --> 00:09:51.140 The Harris folks were all sort of sort of depressed Democrats were wetting their 00:09:51.140 --> 00:09:53.480 pants. As they say, everyone was nervous. 00:09:53.700 --> 00:09:55.760 The poll numbers were bad, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, 00:09:55.780 --> 00:10:01.020 blah. And then in the last week, vibe wise, that reversed and the Harris people 00:10:01.020 --> 00:10:03.440 got all excited and the Trump people started getting it. 00:10:03.460 --> 00:10:08.500 But vibes don't win, you know, vibes don't win, you know, votes win. 00:10:08.640 --> 00:10:11.660 So I don't know, man, you know, it's. 00:10:12.100 --> 00:10:17.040 And people are trying to read tea leaves into the early vote numbers, the attendance. 00:10:18.440 --> 00:10:21.240 And that's never been a good indicator. 00:10:21.240 --> 00:10:28.800 Of anything you know i mean it's it's you know so we sit here and we you know 00:10:28.800 --> 00:10:36.060 we're here a little bit earlier than that that we thought because we we're idiots. 00:10:36.060 --> 00:10:44.040 I mean well i i am an idiot i i had it fixed in my head fixed in my head the 00:10:44.040 --> 00:10:47.140 week we changed time was next weekend, 00:10:47.640 --> 00:10:51.320 I don't know why I had that stuck in my head because I knew they moved it because 00:10:51.320 --> 00:10:53.060 it used to be the last year. 00:10:53.160 --> 00:10:58.380 It used to be earlier and they moved it later, but they didn't move it as far 00:10:58.380 --> 00:11:01.260 as I thought they moved it. And I was just like confused. 00:11:01.580 --> 00:11:05.520 And so I said the time wrong on last week's curmudgeon score. 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:09.280 I said the zero UTC correct, but I converted it into Eastern correct. 00:11:09.280 --> 00:11:11.120 Yeah, we converted it to Eastern time incorrectly. 00:11:11.440 --> 00:11:16.860 I said 5 p.m. where it's really, well, 5 p.m. Pacific where it's really 4 p.m. Pacific. 00:11:17.140 --> 00:11:22.580 and you know that that translates accordingly to whatever three hours later is on the east coast. 00:11:23.220 --> 00:11:31.300 I'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i think i'm gonna have a fucking ulcer i i i really i'm just. 00:11:32.580 --> 00:11:38.000 By the way people on the live stream feel free to introduce yourself in the comments oh shit right. 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:43.240 That that yeah wait hold on i have to go on the i have to open that link as well. 00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:46.960 Was one of them so that you can view our own? Oh, so you can see the chat. 00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:48.080 Oh, so you can see the chat. 00:11:49.230 --> 00:11:53.890 Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, look, this is a live stream of us reacting to results 00:11:53.890 --> 00:11:56.350 as they happen. So there's going to be a lot of like nothing. 00:11:56.830 --> 00:12:00.510 And, and actually like I I'm, I'm, I'm figuring like I've got, 00:12:00.650 --> 00:12:07.110 I've got my four up screen of like the, the four news channels on my phone, 00:12:07.230 --> 00:12:11.350 like in front of me, like I've got, I've got four screens of computer, 00:12:11.650 --> 00:12:18.430 but YouTube TV on the computer doesn't do the four up. so i've got the four. 00:12:18.430 --> 00:12:24.290 Up on my phone yeah it's so weird there are choices on that i know i i mean 00:12:24.290 --> 00:12:27.030 they're both baffling fucking choices but. 00:12:27.030 --> 00:12:31.090 Here's the thing is i have the volume way down so like i'm not actually hearing 00:12:31.090 --> 00:12:36.830 if they say something important you know so so oh hey bruce is on. 00:12:36.830 --> 00:12:39.990 Yeah bruce and bob bruce and bob hi both. 00:12:39.990 --> 00:12:43.810 Of you and uh yeah go oliver yeah right right bruce. 00:12:43.810 --> 00:12:47.390 I think he got some votes somewhere i saw oh. 00:12:47.390 --> 00:12:53.190 I'm sure i i predict he will be the worst performing libertarian in 20 years. 00:12:53.190 --> 00:13:01.690 Wow well i i did see some i i can't remember where i was which state i was looking 00:13:01.690 --> 00:13:06.790 at but they were showing whatchamacallit stein had gotten some votes somewhere 00:13:06.790 --> 00:13:11.590 uh let's see i think was in kentucky i'm. 00:13:11.590 --> 00:13:12.290 Sure she's getting. 00:13:12.290 --> 00:13:17.710 Votes i mean no no but it wasn't no it wasn't stein no i it was actually rfk 00:13:17.710 --> 00:13:27.570 jr and i'm like you know he got like 20 votes or something and i'm just like you know uh hi hi. 00:13:27.570 --> 00:13:33.490 I am cuckoo too i am cuckoo too wants to know are orlando's numbers really better 00:13:33.490 --> 00:13:34.970 for trump this is richard. 00:13:34.970 --> 00:13:40.830 Ah yeah richard as far as i went in i said the answer is no i'm looking at it 00:13:40.830 --> 00:13:45.150 right now but here's a problem look you can't look too much into these numbers 00:13:45.150 --> 00:13:50.610 they don't consider mail-in ballots yet i thought the mail-in. 00:13:50.610 --> 00:13:54.090 Was the first ones that is that in florida are they last in. 00:13:54.090 --> 00:13:59.950 Some states they do the mail-in first and some they add them last so and and 00:13:59.950 --> 00:14:02.990 every precinct has to report numbers tonight, still. 00:14:04.430 --> 00:14:09.970 I mean, I'm looking at it like right now and it's saying Orange County is 5841. 00:14:10.550 --> 00:14:16.490 So I don't I don't recall off the top of my head what that number was the last time. 00:14:16.650 --> 00:14:21.810 I don't have it here, but but but certainly that's, you know, 00:14:22.190 --> 00:14:26.470 so that's now that they don't they don't they add those at the end. 00:14:27.370 --> 00:14:30.530 So now now there's a lot of the tabulation. 00:14:30.530 --> 00:14:34.330 the tabulation that the florida pulls in 00:14:34.330 --> 00:14:37.630 large part is electronic i mean they they they 00:14:37.630 --> 00:14:40.790 calculate and scan everything with these 00:14:40.790 --> 00:14:46.150 machines and so they they yeah so now because you could because you could deposit 00:14:46.150 --> 00:14:55.690 like mail-in ballots i remember just up until today right so yeah so i don't 00:14:55.690 --> 00:15:00.250 i I don't think that's got that in there, but like what we were just mentioning, 00:15:00.510 --> 00:15:06.390 you shouldn't read much into anything into these first early numbers yet, 00:15:06.390 --> 00:15:11.450 even though you've got a lot of like returns already in. 00:15:12.050 --> 00:15:15.670 So I don't know. I will say that. 00:15:16.310 --> 00:15:18.630 I don't know. I don't know. 00:15:23.070 --> 00:15:29.530 Um you know but but look getting florida was i mean anybody you know in this 00:15:29.530 --> 00:15:33.390 election cycle the way things had been going i mean a couple of cycles is always 00:15:33.390 --> 00:15:38.490 a stretch i mean it's nothing there's no polls that really indicated that florida 00:15:38.490 --> 00:15:42.930 was i mean that that harris had i mean We were counting on, 00:15:44.010 --> 00:15:48.170 an error, but Florida polls were not great. 00:15:48.890 --> 00:15:51.810 So, I don't know. 00:15:53.730 --> 00:15:54.810 Do I seem happy? 00:15:55.970 --> 00:16:00.310 I'm not sure. You seem stressed, which is understandable. 00:16:01.210 --> 00:16:06.090 Like you said earlier, I think everybody in the country was, 00:16:06.390 --> 00:16:10.970 yeah, like regardless of which side you're on, you're probably stressed about 00:16:10.970 --> 00:16:13.230 this. Like what's going to happen where? 00:16:13.510 --> 00:16:17.470 Like, well, I don't know. It's like if you've bought into the idea on either 00:16:17.470 --> 00:16:22.530 side that, oh, we got this, then maybe you're feeling good right now. 00:16:22.530 --> 00:16:25.590 And maybe as the night progresses, you'll feel less. 00:16:25.650 --> 00:16:29.110 So maybe we'll feel less. So, but yeah. 00:16:32.010 --> 00:16:35.250 I'm going to look at the answer. 00:16:38.110 --> 00:16:47.650 What was the result in it in Orange County showed 61 38 the last time. 00:16:48.670 --> 00:16:54.850 And so let's see. What does it say? Oh, why did this thing move on me? 00:16:55.250 --> 00:17:04.650 Right now, it is showing, from what's been reported, Orange County, 58, 40, 41. 00:17:05.870 --> 00:17:10.450 So it's close, but it's only 60% of the vote in. 00:17:11.070 --> 00:17:15.010 Osceola County, 51, 48, which is just south. 00:17:15.610 --> 00:17:19.390 That one actually, right now, does look better. But again, this is a problem 00:17:19.390 --> 00:17:21.750 where you've still got so much of the vote. 00:17:22.250 --> 00:17:27.370 outstanding that it's no I don't I don't know so, 00:17:29.330 --> 00:17:33.010 I don't know. And one of the things about anything that happened late in the 00:17:33.010 --> 00:17:36.830 election with Florida specifically, which made it very difficult for Florida, 00:17:36.830 --> 00:17:40.490 is that if you weren't registered 30 days before the election, 00:17:40.890 --> 00:17:49.150 anything that happened late wasn't, you know, you couldn't go and register late. 00:17:49.410 --> 00:17:52.430 That just wasn't a possibility. 00:17:53.490 --> 00:17:57.690 So that was something that was definitely not a possibility. 00:17:57.690 --> 00:18:00.470 So um so i finished 00:18:00.470 --> 00:18:03.270 i finished my little spreadsheet i probably should have done it in google 00:18:03.270 --> 00:18:06.170 sheets so i could share it but i did it in excel 00:18:06.170 --> 00:18:10.270 because i'm dumb and so just as the starting point like what i've what i've 00:18:10.270 --> 00:18:15.010 done is taken basically only the ones that were classified as weak in my averages 00:18:15.010 --> 00:18:19.370 the ones under five percent which in the end and it varied over the course of 00:18:19.370 --> 00:18:22.950 time but in the end ended up being exactly the seven states that everybody is 00:18:22.950 --> 00:18:25.910 talking about everything else sorted it out to the sides. 00:18:26.090 --> 00:18:31.030 But that leaves us at, because the only states called right now are completely 00:18:31.030 --> 00:18:37.550 unsurprising states, Vermont, Indiana, and Kentucky, none of which anybody thought was in contention. 00:18:37.930 --> 00:18:43.570 So we still have the range of possibilities, depending on how these seven states 00:18:43.570 --> 00:18:51.550 go right now, are from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86. You know, so. 00:18:51.550 --> 00:18:52.690 We've got to narrow down. 00:18:53.110 --> 00:18:57.490 Yeah. And like, you know, that won't narrow down until the, 00:18:58.790 --> 00:19:03.750 one of those seven states gets called, which may be a while yet. 00:19:03.930 --> 00:19:10.630 But in the meantime, I think what we're looking for is from the other states 00:19:10.630 --> 00:19:17.070 that aren't one of the core seven, can we gather hints of what's happening based 00:19:17.070 --> 00:19:18.790 on is that, are there states, 00:19:19.670 --> 00:19:23.610 you know, whether it's a red or blue state, is it redder or bluer than expected, 00:19:23.910 --> 00:19:26.230 you know, in terms of what's happening? 00:19:26.230 --> 00:19:31.130 now the problem is with those kinds of stuff like okay indiana has been called 00:19:31.130 --> 00:19:36.170 that doesn't mean we can look at indiana and get any sense of is it redder or 00:19:36.170 --> 00:19:39.790 bluer than we thought it was going to be correct because it's just they can 00:19:39.790 --> 00:19:42.950 call it early because right because they don't flow out. 00:19:42.950 --> 00:19:47.610 Right but they don't expect well but they don't expect that whatever the end result. 00:19:47.610 --> 00:19:48.730 Is going to. 00:19:48.730 --> 00:19:51.330 Be even if it's narrower is going to. 00:19:51.330 --> 00:19:54.350 Matter right like right for the for the call that 00:19:54.350 --> 00:19:58.250 like my estimate has indiana at 14.4 percent 00:19:58.250 --> 00:20:01.410 in my average right now but all they're 00:20:01.410 --> 00:20:05.350 all they are saying when they declare it done is it's 00:20:05.350 --> 00:20:08.610 definitely going to be trump like they're not gonna say like 00:20:08.610 --> 00:20:16.230 no they're not gonna be like oh yeah indiana is you know it's coming in 18 instead 00:20:16.230 --> 00:20:22.290 of 14 so trump's doing really well or or the other way around i mean maybe we 00:20:22.290 --> 00:20:23.430 can dig into some of those numbers 00:20:23.430 --> 00:20:25.770 but the thing is those numbers are going to be slow to come in too. 00:20:25.970 --> 00:20:32.290 It's easy to tell if a majorly red state is going to stay red or stay blue. 00:20:32.790 --> 00:20:44.010 The things that might give some hints are if they don't call states like Ohio fairly quickly. 00:20:44.590 --> 00:20:47.670 Ohio is, it's not like Wyoming. 00:20:47.810 --> 00:20:52.930 It's red, but not that red. And so, but they still should be able to, 00:20:53.130 --> 00:20:56.070 if Ohio, like my average has Ohio at 7.8. 00:20:56.350 --> 00:21:02.470 If Ohio is anything like 7.8, they should be able to call it really quickly after Ohio closes. 00:21:02.810 --> 00:21:04.490 If it takes them a while. 00:21:04.630 --> 00:21:08.710 Bruce is asking the question about, and I think you were just mentioning it, 00:21:08.810 --> 00:21:14.050 that it's too soon to tell whether they are tracking close to the polls yet. 00:21:14.610 --> 00:21:17.490 What the information they have provided is not enough to say. 00:21:17.490 --> 00:21:20.450 because we just know they just know they're 00:21:20.450 --> 00:21:23.430 they're going to win i mean if you look at indiana which has been called for 00:21:23.430 --> 00:21:26.030 for trump only 15 percent of the 00:21:26.030 --> 00:21:31.350 vote is in right i mean it's just you know but which they don't expect scientists 00:21:31.350 --> 00:21:39.030 you know right so it's just not yeah we just can't tell yet i mean what what 00:21:39.030 --> 00:21:44.170 it means so now i mean we just really can't tell what it means. 00:21:45.770 --> 00:21:50.770 So what's your favorite site this time around to track these numbers as they come in? New York? 00:21:50.950 --> 00:21:54.810 Well, I've got, I have three of them up right now. 00:21:55.110 --> 00:21:55.550 Okay. 00:21:55.970 --> 00:22:02.750 So I've got this, you know, for, I got on one screen here, I got Decision Desk HQ. 00:22:03.450 --> 00:22:04.790 That's a good one. That's a good one. 00:22:04.790 --> 00:22:10.050 I've got the New York Times to the right. And I've got the Washington Post over here. 00:22:10.050 --> 00:22:12.730 i have a bloomberg up on 00:22:12.730 --> 00:22:17.150 one screen but they pretty much feed off i'm pretty sure off decision desk so 00:22:17.150 --> 00:22:23.870 uh it's just more for the video news of what's going on so basically those are 00:22:23.870 --> 00:22:31.270 the ones that i'm pretty much looking at right now uh but i i don't know i just feel sick. 00:22:32.970 --> 00:22:35.530 Yes oh oh let's see how. 00:22:35.530 --> 00:22:36.430 Has decision. 00:22:36.430 --> 00:22:38.250 Desk called more they've they've 00:22:38.250 --> 00:22:41.630 got uh trumpet 28 already instead of some teens. So are they calling? 00:22:42.670 --> 00:22:45.110 I see 28. South Carolina. 00:22:45.430 --> 00:22:50.470 South Carolina. Let me move South Carolina into the column. Another non-surprise. 00:22:50.650 --> 00:22:53.350 Right. Yeah, they called South Carolina, yeah. 00:22:54.190 --> 00:22:59.090 Decision Desk HQ, by the way, usually calls things faster than almost anybody else. 00:22:59.550 --> 00:23:04.590 Not always, but a lot of the times. But they haven't gotten them wrong, 00:23:04.590 --> 00:23:08.670 but they're more aggressive about calling things relatively quickly. 00:23:09.150 --> 00:23:09.610 Yeah. 00:23:12.110 --> 00:23:19.790 my witty repartee today is fantastic I mean right now Georgia accounting is, 00:23:20.950 --> 00:23:25.870 Florida accounting is going pretty quickly they're at 64% but I know that there's 00:23:25.870 --> 00:23:32.790 a lot of votes that come in late from some of the bigger counties that's just 00:23:32.790 --> 00:23:34.270 been historically the case, 00:23:37.450 --> 00:23:39.950 but we just don't Thank you. 00:23:41.780 --> 00:23:46.180 But it's, you know, like, see, or some of the bigger counties, 00:23:46.320 --> 00:23:49.160 like Orange County has 60% of the votes in Palm Beach County, 00:23:49.460 --> 00:23:52.540 74% of the vote in, like right now, 00:23:53.340 --> 00:23:58.400 Broward has 72%, Miami has 77%. 00:24:00.800 --> 00:24:06.340 now so i mean it's 64 percent of the vote in florida right now so but i mean 00:24:06.340 --> 00:24:10.600 it's 53 46 to trump i mean it's not that's that that's kind of like in line 00:24:10.600 --> 00:24:14.580 with a lot of the pollings polls so, 00:24:15.520 --> 00:24:21.500 uh yeah i'm not not not does new. 00:24:21.500 --> 00:24:22.920 York times have a needle this time. 00:24:22.920 --> 00:24:29.060 No they did not part of it had to do with i don't know it failed. 00:24:29.060 --> 00:24:30.480 Utterly the last couple of times. 00:24:31.040 --> 00:24:33.820 Well no they were talking about part of it that they were had 00:24:33.820 --> 00:24:38.960 been working on setting it up but the tech guild strike that they had had impacted 00:24:38.960 --> 00:24:44.460 them oh right uh and setting it up and they said that they were going to try 00:24:44.460 --> 00:24:50.460 to see if they could do it but but that they maybe not you know it it It seemed 00:24:50.460 --> 00:24:53.260 like that might not be the case. 00:24:53.560 --> 00:25:03.180 So as far as I checked multiple times, and yeah, they don't seem to be gearing up for the need. 00:25:03.640 --> 00:25:08.080 Right. So we have a few polls closing in just a few seconds. 00:25:08.520 --> 00:25:12.800 Well, we got a full 730. We got the time coming in right now. 00:25:13.140 --> 00:25:20.400 Oh, yeah. I had, I had a nice little page somewhere with like all of the closing times. 00:25:20.860 --> 00:25:24.800 I had it up somewhere and I forgot where the hell I put it. 00:25:25.240 --> 00:25:27.960 Yeah. I'm finding it here. Here it is. 00:25:28.800 --> 00:25:35.260 I'll share, I'll share it in the, the chat for everybody. I just have to, of course I, here we go. 00:25:36.680 --> 00:25:43.880 You know, I hate how they go. We can now project that the race in North Carolina is too close to call. 00:25:44.160 --> 00:25:47.720 Thank you. Thank you so much. That's so, that's so. 00:25:47.840 --> 00:25:53.640 Uh, it's, or worse when it's just, they can project it's too early to call. 00:25:53.780 --> 00:25:55.440 Like that's not a projection. 00:25:55.780 --> 00:25:58.280 Just say you can't project North Carolina yet. 00:25:59.660 --> 00:26:01.120 Yeah, that would be nice. 00:26:02.730 --> 00:26:07.370 7.30 p.m. Poll closings. Four states. 00:26:08.490 --> 00:26:13.970 North Carolina. Who else? I don't know. Look at the map. North Carolina. 00:26:14.570 --> 00:26:20.370 So Bruce mentions initial CNN exit poll. Georgia independent voters favor Trump over Harris. 00:26:21.290 --> 00:26:22.470 Oh, let's see. 00:26:23.150 --> 00:26:24.950 My take of just looking. 00:26:25.150 --> 00:26:30.430 Exit polls have been terrible like the last few years. It's been one of those. with it. 00:26:30.690 --> 00:26:33.350 I mean, I'm not saying that they may be wrong like right now, 00:26:33.430 --> 00:26:37.870 but it's just, it's just never, I mean, it's just not been a good indicator. 00:26:38.150 --> 00:26:42.450 Well, yeah. And just poll average wise. And I put this in my latest blog post 00:26:42.450 --> 00:26:45.510 on electiongraphs.com that I posted like less than an hour ago. 00:26:46.210 --> 00:26:52.150 But like, if you'd look at the trends in each state, rather than looking at 00:26:52.150 --> 00:26:56.090 just the final average, just to see where it's been hovering, 00:26:56.350 --> 00:26:58.210 I would still give Georgia to Trump. 00:26:58.610 --> 00:27:02.830 If there is not a systematic polling error, 00:27:03.190 --> 00:27:08.030 if there's a systematic polling error that everything's underestimating Harris 00:27:08.030 --> 00:27:09.990 or even everything's underestimating Trump, 00:27:10.250 --> 00:27:17.710 it looks like Georgia was just averaging a very narrow Trump lead consistently 00:27:17.710 --> 00:27:19.290 for the last couple months. 00:27:19.290 --> 00:27:23.130 so the all the only way harris wins georgia is 00:27:23.130 --> 00:27:27.990 if there's a systematic error and it the polling was just missing some harris 00:27:27.990 --> 00:27:33.590 voting voting like the the the close ones the ones that in the end like if you 00:27:33.590 --> 00:27:39.810 look at those trends the three blue wall states all really look too close to call unless okay. 00:27:39.810 --> 00:27:43.510 We got another state called you're gonna be it's a shocker i know. 00:27:43.510 --> 00:27:45.450 Okay i'm ready to log it. 00:27:45.450 --> 00:27:47.330 Trump when it's west virginia. 00:27:47.330 --> 00:27:50.630 Oh my goodness i never ever 00:27:50.630 --> 00:27:54.450 ever would have guessed that yeah stunning 00:27:54.450 --> 00:27:58.370 we uh so we have still not changed the 00:27:58.370 --> 00:28:02.130 overall picture like every 00:28:02.130 --> 00:28:04.810 call is an expected call and that's probably going to be 00:28:04.810 --> 00:28:07.810 like the first couple hours of this is every call is an expected 00:28:07.810 --> 00:28:11.810 call like because anything that's at all surprising even 00:28:11.810 --> 00:28:15.170 if the initial things look like that they're going 00:28:15.170 --> 00:28:21.530 to hold off until they're really really sure you know like if there are indications 00:28:21.530 --> 00:28:25.510 that wait a second iowa really is going to be blue like the seltzer poll said 00:28:25.510 --> 00:28:32.370 they're not going to actually call it the first time it looks like it might be blue and. 00:28:32.370 --> 00:28:37.210 Another non-surprising call they're calling that the senate that the west virginia 00:28:37.210 --> 00:28:43.530 democratic Senate seat is going to, you know, the Republican, whatever his name is. 00:28:44.370 --> 00:28:49.610 Yeah. No one was surprised by that. I mean, as we've said for years on the show, 00:28:49.810 --> 00:28:55.650 like the fact that Manchin held that seat as long as he did was somewhat of a miracle. 00:28:56.270 --> 00:28:57.210 Yeah. Yeah. 00:28:59.330 --> 00:29:04.370 So, um, so those are the only ones that see any returns on North Carolina. 00:29:04.370 --> 00:29:11.030 I don't see any, any numbers feeding into anybody here yet. North Carolina. 00:29:11.830 --> 00:29:13.350 No, no. 00:29:14.330 --> 00:29:18.370 One thing about Georgia and Jim justice in West Virginia was his name. 00:29:18.370 --> 00:29:23.270 Yeah. Whatever fucking name is. It gives a fuck. Sure. 00:29:23.470 --> 00:29:29.050 Cause one of the things that many were concerned. 00:29:29.050 --> 00:29:31.970 and polls had shown this before is about 00:29:31.970 --> 00:29:35.270 it and it's it really you know 00:29:35.270 --> 00:29:39.190 talks about what the demographic change that's happened in florida especially 00:29:39.190 --> 00:29:45.450 with many new arrivals into miami is that right now trump is winning miami um 00:29:45.450 --> 00:29:51.890 55 44 now palm beach county where i live he's losing and he's losing broward 00:29:51.890 --> 00:29:54.910 county which is in the middle like by a wide margin 60 40, 00:29:55.470 --> 00:29:58.790 But that had been, you know, 00:29:59.390 --> 00:30:03.630 data had shown that he had the possibility of capturing Miami-Dade. 00:30:03.730 --> 00:30:08.590 And right now, with 80% of the vote in, it's showing he's up 55-44. 00:30:09.940 --> 00:30:15.020 Like Broward County is the polar opposite, which is like 60, 30, 90 the other way. 00:30:15.880 --> 00:30:20.460 And, you know, where I live is like 52, 47 right now, based on the polling that's 00:30:20.460 --> 00:30:22.240 been, has been reported. 00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:28.580 So, so Harris is leaving North Carolina at the moment with 2% in. 00:30:28.980 --> 00:30:32.940 Oh, well, yeah, well, it doesn't mean anything. 00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:36.100 No, it doesn't mean anything yet. because and i 00:30:36.100 --> 00:30:38.880 mean i'm sure if i was actually listening to the talking heads on 00:30:38.880 --> 00:30:42.780 the various channels like i see steve kornacki on msnbc and 00:30:42.780 --> 00:30:45.780 uh what what's his name uh king was it king on cnn i 00:30:45.780 --> 00:30:48.520 forget but they're going through their maps and 00:30:48.520 --> 00:30:52.020 pointing county by county and like where are the returns in and when or when 00:30:52.020 --> 00:30:55.980 they aren't and they would be telling you a little bit about like you know are 00:30:55.980 --> 00:31:02.100 the places that are in so far is this what we're expecting to see from those 00:31:02.100 --> 00:31:05.740 places or is it a surprise but i've got the volume down pretty low so i can't 00:31:05.740 --> 00:31:07.360 actually tell what they're saying well. 00:31:07.360 --> 00:31:12.380 I mean well you're asking about that i'm looking at like wake county which is raleigh. 00:31:12.380 --> 00:31:13.440 I mean it's. 00:31:13.440 --> 00:31:15.800 70 30 harris like right now. 00:31:15.800 --> 00:31:20.460 Well right the quick but are all the places that are returning votes so far 00:31:20.460 --> 00:31:23.440 north carolina the cities basically yeah yeah. 00:31:23.440 --> 00:31:27.860 Basically if you look at the map the the the places that you've got is really 00:31:27.860 --> 00:31:32.420 raleigh and the biggest one that's that's returned as Raleigh and a whole bunch 00:31:32.420 --> 00:31:34.220 of actually other small places. 00:31:34.420 --> 00:31:37.660 Actually, a lot of other small places, and they're all showing blue. 00:31:37.920 --> 00:31:41.440 And these are a lot of small, smaller areas. 00:31:42.180 --> 00:31:44.920 Yeah. Wow. Okay. 00:31:45.680 --> 00:31:52.340 I mean, yeah. I mean, like Watauga County, pretty small county right now, 00:31:52.500 --> 00:31:57.820 only 4%, but 60-40 to Harris. 00:31:57.820 --> 00:32:01.500 So yeah, you've got that going on. 00:32:02.940 --> 00:32:09.260 No, Virginia with 8% of the vote in Harris is ahead 65 to 32%. I mean, it's... 00:32:10.990 --> 00:32:14.650 I mean, Virginia is one that Harris is expected to take. 00:32:15.910 --> 00:32:21.910 Oh, what? There we go. I was wondering why my electoral vote count of what was called was off by one. 00:32:22.010 --> 00:32:25.390 And it was because I eyeballed wrong. 00:32:25.670 --> 00:32:28.230 And instead of moving South Carolina to the called category, 00:32:28.230 --> 00:32:30.510 I moved Missouri. Let me fix that. 00:32:31.230 --> 00:32:32.250 Okay. Well, that would, yeah. 00:32:33.530 --> 00:32:35.490 Now everything's good. Not that 00:32:35.490 --> 00:32:39.250 either one of those would have been surprising states in any way, but. 00:32:41.810 --> 00:32:45.290 so let me look at that poll closing times 00:32:45.290 --> 00:32:52.210 when is the first that we actually think is gonna i mean well florida but like 00:32:52.210 --> 00:32:57.130 when's the first real swing state it's it's i mean north carolina is the first 00:32:57.130 --> 00:33:01.330 one that's a swing state that's open and obviously they're starting to trickle 00:33:01.330 --> 00:33:04.790 in results uh well like 7 30. 00:33:04.790 --> 00:33:05.830 North carolina ohio. 00:33:05.830 --> 00:33:10.910 Yeah it's early eight o'clock it's eight o'clock 8 p.m. we get Pennsylvania 00:33:10.910 --> 00:33:13.090 and Michigan, and those will be big. 00:33:13.710 --> 00:33:18.010 But those are also ones where you get like these weird effects of like, 00:33:18.090 --> 00:33:24.950 like in Pennsylvania, like they can't, they couldn't start counting the mail-in 00:33:24.950 --> 00:33:27.390 ballots until polls close. 00:33:27.570 --> 00:33:30.770 So they haven't even started that. So like some other states, 00:33:30.990 --> 00:33:34.710 like as soon as polls close, they dump the results for all the mail-in ballots. 00:33:35.050 --> 00:33:37.930 Pennsylvania can't do that. Pennsylvania starts counting at that point. 00:33:38.970 --> 00:33:44.390 Okay. Bob says, ABC says Harris isn't doing as well in Florida as Biden did, at least so far. 00:33:46.070 --> 00:33:50.190 I got a thing on Twitter. Trump is not Twitter on Mastodon. 00:33:50.330 --> 00:33:54.630 Trump is underperforming in Georgia, a red County Trump down versus a blue County 00:33:54.630 --> 00:33:58.270 Harris up recalled Trump lost Georgia in 2020. So he has to improve his numbers. 00:33:58.430 --> 00:33:59.470 Otherwise he loses again. 00:33:59.790 --> 00:34:04.250 And they're like passing along some looks like some maps from MSNBC. 00:34:04.730 --> 00:34:05.290 Okay. 00:34:05.750 --> 00:34:06.770 So we'll see. 00:34:10.010 --> 00:34:14.070 I mean, actual count wise though, Trump is still ahead in Georgia. 00:34:14.810 --> 00:34:18.850 Yeah. Yeah, but if you look at where it is being reported, Georgia, 00:34:19.110 --> 00:34:22.370 it's mostly very rural areas, like right now. 00:34:23.050 --> 00:34:26.410 The opposite of what you were saying in North Carolina, where the cities are reporting first. 00:34:26.590 --> 00:34:30.330 Yeah, yeah. You had like Raleigh reporting first. Yeah, so that was like the thing. 00:34:30.430 --> 00:34:35.490 I mean, the biggest one was like around Raleigh, where you had that first, so that impacted. 00:34:35.670 --> 00:34:38.390 But yeah, Georgia is totally the opposite at this point. Yeah. 00:34:40.170 --> 00:34:43.270 I mean, the interesting thing is that, as I'm looking at these. 00:34:44.350 --> 00:34:49.110 yeah i mean i don't know florida not looking at the end i forget about florida 00:34:49.110 --> 00:34:55.330 florida's like i i would right now just don't don't even bother just put it 00:34:55.330 --> 00:34:58.830 in the trump i would at this. 00:34:58.830 --> 00:35:03.410 Point yeah 75 percent of votes in 54 45 right now yeah. 00:35:03.410 --> 00:35:04.590 Yeah it's not happening. 00:35:04.590 --> 00:35:11.250 That that's like a bigger that like just in terms of whether it's on i was it's around. 00:35:11.250 --> 00:35:14.230 The same as the last it's it's looking pretty close. 00:35:14.230 --> 00:35:18.150 Well yeah but i'm just saying the poll averages were just over five percent 00:35:18.150 --> 00:35:22.950 right now so if it's a 10 margin it's he's doing better than the polling said correct. 00:35:22.950 --> 00:35:24.250 Yeah yeah yeah. 00:35:24.250 --> 00:35:30.690 Oh that's nice some county some county in georgia has gotten seven bomb threats 00:35:30.690 --> 00:35:35.350 in the last hour that's nice at the vote you know the the voting office or whatever, 00:35:36.670 --> 00:35:42.750 always lovely they are extending you know in the places affected by bomb threats 00:35:42.750 --> 00:35:44.070 they're giving them more time to vote. 00:35:44.070 --> 00:35:45.150 No I would, 00:35:46.690 --> 00:35:51.670 Well, Ohio with 4% of the vote in, it's not surprising right now. Trump's ahead. 00:35:52.230 --> 00:35:55.890 So, ah, it's almost a surprise. 00:35:57.470 --> 00:36:01.050 I'm playing around with the interfaces for New York Times, Washington Post, 00:36:01.210 --> 00:36:03.270 and Decision Desk. I don't like the Washington Post one. 00:36:04.710 --> 00:36:06.290 Yeah, it's not great. 00:36:07.110 --> 00:36:09.490 Just the UI on it kind of sucks. 00:36:11.050 --> 00:36:16.270 So far, the one that I've used that has the best UI is New York Times. 00:36:16.690 --> 00:36:23.130 Yeah, I would agree with that. DDHQ does have a president win chance percentage that's updating live. 00:36:23.410 --> 00:36:28.710 They have Trump at 64.3% right now. Hey, which is really close to where I had him. 00:36:32.170 --> 00:36:37.810 My final average, 63.6%, or not average. 00:36:38.070 --> 00:36:42.790 That was from my uniform states model was at that. 00:36:43.330 --> 00:36:45.350 So, ta-da. 00:36:46.690 --> 00:36:49.090 Let's see, does New York Times have anything like that? You know, 00:36:49.190 --> 00:36:51.170 that's what their needle would have been, but they don't have. 00:36:51.410 --> 00:36:56.170 Right, but they, no needle. Well, we really got 15 minutes before, 00:36:56.370 --> 00:36:58.810 really, we get an important data dump 00:36:58.810 --> 00:37:03.130 of anything that is going to be consequential right now at this point. 00:37:03.530 --> 00:37:07.790 Where's the, how do we get to the main stupid election page? 00:37:07.830 --> 00:37:11.610 I'm just on the homepage of the New York Times right now, and they've got all the key information. 00:37:11.710 --> 00:37:15.830 No, there is a link. If you go to election, it clicked on president. 00:37:16.690 --> 00:37:21.970 Looked on president. Okay. There we go. Ah, yes. Same thing, but bigger. Nice. 00:37:22.650 --> 00:37:22.810 Yeah. 00:37:24.010 --> 00:37:29.070 And let's see. Yeah. Florida is looking like a decisive win for Trump. 00:37:33.670 --> 00:37:39.870 Uh, so the one thing we can say about Florida is that the fact that Florida 00:37:39.870 --> 00:37:46.450 is not looking like it's where its polls are, is that, 00:37:47.630 --> 00:37:54.190 We're probably not talking the scenario where there's a blowout. 00:37:54.330 --> 00:37:58.150 I think we're looking more like that. It's going to be a nail biter after all. 00:37:58.350 --> 00:38:00.570 Oh yeah. Um, I think, well. 00:38:00.790 --> 00:38:05.570 One thing, unless it's the Trump blowout, the Trump blowout could still be indicated by this. 00:38:05.690 --> 00:38:15.750 Well, here's one thing. It also, I will say it, the Harris campaign never actively campaigned here. 00:38:16.050 --> 00:38:18.370 They, they, they, They did not. 00:38:18.550 --> 00:38:21.550 It was like one visit. They came once. 00:38:21.710 --> 00:38:25.410 I mean, and I have to say that, yeah. 00:38:25.910 --> 00:38:31.830 They did a little bit of advertising, but it was aimed at Donald Trump personally. 00:38:32.170 --> 00:38:37.330 It was like, it was on shows they knew he was watching meant to irritate him. 00:38:37.450 --> 00:38:39.230 It wasn't actually selling to the state. 00:38:39.570 --> 00:38:45.470 Point is that, obviously, their internals told them that there was no point 00:38:45.470 --> 00:38:50.650 in doing it. And, and, you know, they, they had, I mean, I had not even been, 00:38:50.950 --> 00:38:54.330 I, you know, I've heard of so many people canvassing and working and doing stuff or whatever. 00:38:54.970 --> 00:38:57.790 And in other cycles, I had been approached to do that. 00:38:58.170 --> 00:39:01.910 I was never even approached in this cycle and I know I'm in their database to do that. 00:39:01.990 --> 00:39:05.350 So, so that indicated to me that they, they, they pretty much, 00:39:05.490 --> 00:39:11.450 you know, knew that this was, you know, whatever the result was going to be, it was going to be bad. 00:39:11.570 --> 00:39:14.410 And I did not see them really make any effort whatsoever. 00:39:14.410 --> 00:39:20.270 Well, and I heard someone on TV earlier today, once again, it was somebody who 00:39:20.270 --> 00:39:24.850 used to work for Howard Dean and lamenting, as we often do, the death of the 00:39:24.850 --> 00:39:28.250 50-state strategy during the early Obama administration. 00:39:28.570 --> 00:39:28.670 Sure. 00:39:28.810 --> 00:39:34.450 It's like such a lost opportunity that, I mean, and I realize it costs money, 00:39:34.470 --> 00:39:37.930 but like you kind of got to play everywhere. 00:39:38.110 --> 00:39:40.890 It's not just for the short term. It's for building up for long term. 00:39:41.310 --> 00:39:45.810 And if you completely abandon entire areas of the country and basically just 00:39:45.810 --> 00:39:50.370 say, well, I can't, we're not going to win there this year, so we're not going to do anything. 00:39:51.070 --> 00:39:54.110 I think that is a way to make it worse over time. The future is worse. 00:39:54.270 --> 00:39:55.950 And that's what they've been doing in Florida. 00:39:56.290 --> 00:40:00.350 You know, that's just a reality. I mean, there was no, there was no canvassing. 00:40:00.570 --> 00:40:03.450 I mean, there's just no, no, nothing. There was just no activity. Nothing was done. 00:40:04.090 --> 00:40:09.130 So, you know, I'm not surprised. You know, even with messaging that may have 00:40:09.130 --> 00:40:13.490 turned positive for certain things, it's just, you know, there was nothing to 00:40:13.490 --> 00:40:17.890 turn that into, into votes. Right. Really. 00:40:18.730 --> 00:40:26.770 So, yeah. I mean, so, so we're now some 49 Eastern. 00:40:27.450 --> 00:40:28.250 Oh, here we go. 00:40:28.870 --> 00:40:30.010 Yeah. Oh, 10 more. 00:40:30.210 --> 00:40:31.170 49, not 50. 00:40:31.390 --> 00:40:37.610 49. You got me excited for a second. 49, not 59. 49 so um. 00:40:38.270 --> 00:40:41.930 Yeah, I keep looking at the numbers in the states that are open, 00:40:42.090 --> 00:40:46.070 but they're like North North Carolina is dribbling and it's only at 2%. 00:40:46.630 --> 00:40:48.490 You can't say anything about that. 00:40:49.410 --> 00:40:51.450 George is at 14%. 00:40:51.450 --> 00:40:59.170 Virginia is coming out as as a healthy Harris by 10, which like the average 00:40:59.170 --> 00:41:00.770 the poll average there was Harris. 00:41:00.830 --> 00:41:02.150 Five. so. 00:41:02.150 --> 00:41:06.730 So we have like on the one hand trump overperforming by like five percent in. 00:41:06.730 --> 00:41:10.330 Florida and harris overperforming but in virginia in. 00:41:10.330 --> 00:41:14.330 Virginia so no overall like trend yet. 00:41:14.330 --> 00:41:16.850 Right right right and. 00:41:16.850 --> 00:41:20.930 Then maybe there won't be you know each state could go its own way you know. 00:41:20.930 --> 00:41:23.550 Well that's i mean that's one of the 00:41:23.550 --> 00:41:26.550 things where i i you know i know that you you had your uniform 00:41:26.550 --> 00:41:29.430 swing versus individual saying and i have to 00:41:29.430 --> 00:41:34.450 say that seeing the dynamic difference that's happened between georgia and florida 00:41:34.450 --> 00:41:39.530 over the last 10 years yeah it really shows me that man there is no uniform 00:41:39.530 --> 00:41:44.270 swing hey i it it really i mean there there is here's the thing so this is why 00:41:44.270 --> 00:41:48.590 something that moves like one or two points i always usually say it's somewhere. 00:41:48.590 --> 00:41:50.370 In between those two extremes. 00:41:50.370 --> 00:41:51.110 Right but. 00:41:51.110 --> 00:41:55.690 I think it's closer to uniform swing and even though you have individual states 00:41:55.690 --> 00:42:02.230 go all over the place and wild in general like if the pollsters are systematically 00:42:02.230 --> 00:42:07.730 doing something wrong the same pollsters play in all of the swing states. 00:42:07.730 --> 00:42:12.950 But they tend to get between georgia and florida they've gone listen georgia 00:42:12.950 --> 00:42:18.690 was predicted for trump last time and it went the other way and and democrats 00:42:18.690 --> 00:42:20.830 have overperformed in Georgia, 00:42:20.830 --> 00:42:25.870 whereas it's been the opposite the last couple of election cycles in Florida. 00:42:26.110 --> 00:42:26.410 Right. 00:42:26.550 --> 00:42:31.550 It's just been, they've been swinging, they've been swinging a different, 00:42:31.810 --> 00:42:33.450 in polar opposite directions. 00:42:34.770 --> 00:42:40.130 And so, I mean, I do listen, there is a thing of like, hey, is there some uniform effect? 00:42:40.910 --> 00:42:47.390 Yes, there is. But I do think that the bigger effects right now that we're having 00:42:47.390 --> 00:42:54.610 in the in the polls are far more local 80 to 90 percent than any of the uniform swing that it does. 00:42:54.610 --> 00:42:57.830 There is some gravitational pull, like, at the large extent, 00:42:57.990 --> 00:43:04.730 but, man, there are certainly very big local dynamics that are in play in these 00:43:04.730 --> 00:43:05.790 states, like, right now. 00:43:05.810 --> 00:43:11.090 Because I just don't see how these two states, you know, in this region have 00:43:11.090 --> 00:43:13.150 moved in such polar opposite directions. 00:43:13.770 --> 00:43:19.430 Well, if it makes you feel better, Yvonne, like, my independent states odds 00:43:19.430 --> 00:43:23.150 for Harris, like, uniform swing, I have it at 36.4%. 00:43:23.670 --> 00:43:26.490 independent states is down at 13.5 because it 00:43:26.490 --> 00:43:35.210 makes it so that like you know all it takes is one of the the the key blue whatever 00:43:35.210 --> 00:43:41.330 it is the the blue belt whatever the yeah yeah yeah you know wisconsin uh michigan 00:43:41.330 --> 00:43:45.450 and pennsylvania the blue wall all it takes is one of them going the other way and you're done. 00:43:45.450 --> 00:43:46.670 The blue belt. 00:43:46.670 --> 00:43:54.150 And so if they all move in the same direction then the chances of one of them going the wrong way. 00:43:54.350 --> 00:43:59.510 Like if you only did one of the three, you basically have a one in three chance 00:43:59.510 --> 00:44:02.530 that one or two in three chance that one of them goes the other way. 00:44:02.650 --> 00:44:06.570 You know, I'm not doing the math right, but it's easier for one of them to lose 00:44:06.570 --> 00:44:08.270 than for all three of them to go the wrong way. 00:44:08.530 --> 00:44:13.030 So, you know, it's like Arizona, take 10 to 13 days, Nevada, 00:44:13.990 --> 00:44:19.890 November 9th, Georgia says several days. I'm looking at when they could have 00:44:19.890 --> 00:44:21.470 final tallies for these states. 00:44:21.770 --> 00:44:22.170 Right. 00:44:22.390 --> 00:44:27.190 Depending on where they are. Florida, because they've tightened it up pretty quickly. 00:44:27.330 --> 00:44:29.950 So they're getting everything in like right now pretty quick. 00:44:30.170 --> 00:44:31.810 They're at 80% right now reporting. 00:44:32.410 --> 00:44:36.830 Florida's fast. Florida's fast. I imagine they'll call Florida pretty soon. 00:44:37.150 --> 00:44:38.950 Yeah. Well, I already did. 00:44:39.170 --> 00:44:44.690 I know you did. But I'm not a, you know, I wait for somebody official to call Florida. 00:44:45.330 --> 00:44:46.290 Somebody official. 00:44:49.510 --> 00:44:56.410 I'll do these two calls. You can make a column of my calls. I'm calling Virginia right now for Harris. 00:44:56.650 --> 00:44:57.330 There you go. 00:44:57.710 --> 00:45:01.690 And I'll call Florida for Trump. There you go. All right, I'll do my two calls. 00:45:02.510 --> 00:45:06.350 And I'm going to call New Hampshire for Harris, too. There you go. 00:45:07.970 --> 00:45:17.250 So, uh, DDHQ has, let's see, Paris is ahead in Ohio now with 11% reporting. 00:45:17.550 --> 00:45:19.510 That would be interesting if that happened. 00:45:19.590 --> 00:45:24.110 Okay. That would be, I mean, that would be, I mean, that would be, 00:45:24.270 --> 00:45:26.970 you know, uh, uh, uh, uh, an earthquake. 00:45:27.370 --> 00:45:33.330 I think, I think we're still early because we've got Columbus and Akron have 00:45:33.330 --> 00:45:36.690 reported and then a bunch of rural areas. So, yeah. 00:45:36.690 --> 00:45:38.550 Yeah. No Cleveland, though. 00:45:38.950 --> 00:45:39.670 No Cincinnati. 00:45:40.330 --> 00:45:46.030 No Dayton. So that still leaves a lot unreported from the big areas. 00:45:46.230 --> 00:45:47.870 But here's the interesting thing. 00:45:48.190 --> 00:45:52.910 In Decision Desk, they have Harris up 55 to 44 on Decision Desk. 00:45:53.330 --> 00:45:56.430 Looking at New York Times, they have it Trump up. 00:45:56.550 --> 00:46:04.370 They have only 8% of the vote reporting in New York Times, whereas we got about 11% in on Decision Desk. 00:46:04.490 --> 00:46:09.230 So they've Now Ohio is up to 10% and New York Times just updated. 00:46:09.550 --> 00:46:12.490 Still Trump ahead there, but yeah. 00:46:13.730 --> 00:46:18.730 Yeah. And Decision Desk's version of the needle is swinging up. 00:46:18.870 --> 00:46:20.750 They're up to 65% Trump now. 00:46:20.990 --> 00:46:21.470 Mm-hmm. 00:46:22.610 --> 00:46:26.730 Four minutes till the next batch of states. See, the thing is, 00:46:26.810 --> 00:46:32.030 of course, the states you care about are all the close states that will take the longest to call. 00:46:34.810 --> 00:46:38.530 Hey pennsylvania what does it say here about the vote counting in pennsylvania 00:46:38.530 --> 00:46:42.750 counting is not expected to extend beyond election night primarily because election 00:46:42.750 --> 00:46:47.390 workers are not allowed to start pressing mail ballots until election day oh 00:46:47.390 --> 00:46:49.230 no counting is expected to extend 00:46:49.230 --> 00:46:52.110 beyond election night so yeah so they're not going to finish tonight, 00:46:53.450 --> 00:47:00.470 michigan says oh it's also slow okay all right by the way we're up to five people. 00:47:00.470 --> 00:47:02.050 Here thanks Everybody who's here, 00:47:02.170 --> 00:47:05.290 feel free to introduce yourself in the chat. I see Pete has joined us. 00:47:05.850 --> 00:47:09.850 Yeah. He says, please repeat everything we said for the last hour. Only funnier. 00:47:10.450 --> 00:47:17.810 Oh, only funnier. I fucking hate this. We don't know shit yet. 00:47:19.040 --> 00:47:28.580 And I called Florida for Trump and Virginia for Harris and New Hampshire for Harris. 00:47:28.800 --> 00:47:37.660 I also mentioned that both Florida and Virginia have wider margins than expected. 00:47:37.700 --> 00:47:39.420 But in the opposite direction. 00:47:39.600 --> 00:47:43.140 But in the opposite direction. So Virginia is bluer than the polls indicated. 00:47:43.360 --> 00:47:45.220 Florida is redder than the polls indicated. 00:47:45.540 --> 00:47:52.040 Right. yeah i mean in decision deaths right now harris is up 54 to 40 54.8 to 00:47:52.040 --> 00:47:54.960 43 percent in virginia so yeah. 00:47:54.960 --> 00:48:01.880 Which by the way is yeah the same percentage as ohio at the moment, 00:48:03.620 --> 00:48:09.120 yeah that's 11 percent in yeah the problem with these 11 percent in and things 00:48:09.120 --> 00:48:13.300 like that is it matters which 11%, you know? 00:48:13.700 --> 00:48:16.620 And it also matters the balance of male versus in person. 00:48:17.180 --> 00:48:24.780 Fulton County has reported 767 votes. 700, not 767,000. I mean, 767. 00:48:26.980 --> 00:48:36.900 Where are we now? It's 758.45. So we'll get a batch of information pretty soon. we'll. 00:48:36.900 --> 00:48:42.480 Probably get some quick calls on a few non-surprising states and then a bunch 00:48:42.480 --> 00:48:48.040 of calls that say too soon to call on any state that matters yeah. 00:48:48.040 --> 00:48:53.540 Bob is saying that he posted a link that is showing the moves i'm not i don't 00:48:53.540 --> 00:48:58.460 i don't see where you posted that link though bob uh it's not on the slack or 00:48:58.460 --> 00:49:04.780 we're like i don't i don't i don't see it on yeah i don't see it post it again 00:49:04.780 --> 00:49:06.620 post it again yeah post it again. 00:49:08.080 --> 00:49:10.360 Oh, less than a minute till the next batch of states. 00:49:11.300 --> 00:49:15.380 Oh, I also called, you know, oh no, that's, that's officially called. 00:49:15.480 --> 00:49:17.940 Well, Trump went one West Virginia. Surprise, surprise. 00:49:19.000 --> 00:49:23.820 I just got an alert about the South Carolina call, but that was a long time ago, at least from DDHQ. 00:49:24.200 --> 00:49:27.000 Yeah. It's been a while. Yeah. But it's probably somebody else because I know 00:49:27.000 --> 00:49:30.580 I saw it a lot of times and Washington Post didn't have it called. 00:49:30.720 --> 00:49:31.380 But yeah. Yeah. 00:49:35.840 --> 00:49:37.300 All right. It's eight o'clock. 00:49:38.280 --> 00:49:40.880 Officially in the east what. 00:49:40.880 --> 00:49:49.720 Do we know we know nothing oh well okay decision desk called oklahoma and tennessee. 00:49:49.720 --> 00:49:52.040 Not missouri no i. 00:49:52.040 --> 00:49:53.880 See oklahoma and tennessee for. 00:49:53.880 --> 00:49:57.340 I'm looking i'm looking at decision jose i don't see i have. 00:49:57.340 --> 00:49:58.680 It up here what do you. 00:49:58.680 --> 00:50:03.800 Want okay there we go i you know they're it's out of obviously got an auto refresh 00:50:03.800 --> 00:50:09.140 every few seconds and you got an update before me uh oklahoma missouri maryland. 00:50:09.140 --> 00:50:10.460 Is for harris. 00:50:10.460 --> 00:50:14.580 Okay big surprise there too shocker uh 00:50:14.580 --> 00:50:17.860 let me move all of these over we got maryland we 00:50:17.860 --> 00:50:27.980 got massachusetts we got rhode island all as expected we got as you said oklahoma 00:50:27.980 --> 00:50:35.380 oklahoma missouri oh we'd already moved Kentucky, 00:50:36.140 --> 00:50:39.640 Indiana, already moved. 00:50:40.240 --> 00:50:42.920 Who did I miss? That's it. That's all the new ones, right? 00:50:43.480 --> 00:50:44.000 Mm-hmm. 00:50:44.940 --> 00:50:46.540 Oh, no, Mississippi and Alabama. 00:50:46.960 --> 00:50:51.640 Oh, Mississippi and Alabama, too. Yeah. Also shocking developments. 00:50:54.200 --> 00:50:57.060 But no additional data. Okay, 00:50:57.140 --> 00:51:01.760 I see some data trickling in in Washington Post on, I mean, 00:51:01.840 --> 00:51:05.220 on the New York Times on on pennsylvania they've 00:51:05.220 --> 00:51:08.780 got uh three percent reporting harris up 00:51:08.780 --> 00:51:14.880 72 27 with three percent but three percent means nothing i know where is it 00:51:14.880 --> 00:51:21.740 it's pittsburgh go go go go pete there you go 72 27 you guys are knocking it 00:51:21.740 --> 00:51:28.160 out at a park there you go connecticut and massachusetts i've been called for harris okay. 00:51:28.160 --> 00:51:30.840 I already got massachusetts i'll move connecticut. 00:51:30.840 --> 00:51:32.760 And rhode i already. 00:51:32.760 --> 00:51:35.240 Got rhode island who called connecticut. 00:51:35.240 --> 00:51:39.900 Uh i see it here in the new york times they got they got connecticut okay. 00:51:39.900 --> 00:51:44.860 I'm moving mine over if anybody calls them decision dust doesn't have connecticut 00:51:44.860 --> 00:51:51.500 yet yeah just compare and new york times doesn't have missouri yet but nine 00:51:51.500 --> 00:51:53.920 percent of the vote in in texas and harris is leading. 00:51:53.920 --> 00:51:56.800 Yeah yeah yeah it's all dallas yeah. 00:51:58.540 --> 00:52:03.220 North Carolina is up to 6%. Harris still ahead. All still cities, 00:52:03.240 --> 00:52:04.760 I presume, even though I haven't clicked. 00:52:04.760 --> 00:52:10.560 Jesus, Harris. I mean, with 20% in Ohio, the lead is big. 00:52:10.860 --> 00:52:16.520 Still leading. Yeah. With 26%, according to New York Times, and Harris is still ahead by 10%. Yeah. 00:52:16.920 --> 00:52:22.320 I mean, it's a large number of votes. It's 140,000 votes. 00:52:22.460 --> 00:52:24.460 Is it still all cities, though? Let's click through. 00:52:24.760 --> 00:52:28.580 There's some rural areas reporting, too, but the cities. but mostly where to 00:52:28.580 --> 00:52:29.920 most of the people are. Yeah. 00:52:30.060 --> 00:52:30.120 Yeah. 00:52:30.120 --> 00:52:33.860 But that's where most of the people are. I mean, how much was the total? 00:52:34.040 --> 00:52:37.580 I mean, I mean, yeah, it's a lot of ground to make up as well. 00:52:37.700 --> 00:52:40.580 Well, yeah. But what, what we need to know is for all those counties, 00:52:41.040 --> 00:52:46.260 how does it compare to what is expected in each county? And I don't know that we have that yet. 00:52:47.240 --> 00:52:47.600 No. 00:52:48.440 --> 00:52:50.060 Okay. I'm going to listen to this for a second. 00:52:52.280 --> 00:52:55.860 Yeah. This time, maybe Texas for Democrats, Pete says. 00:52:56.540 --> 00:52:58.380 I'm not holding my breath pete. 00:52:58.380 --> 00:53:03.800 No he he was saying my entire life this is what i've heard is what he's oh yeah. 00:53:03.800 --> 00:53:05.300 Well yeah yeah. 00:53:05.300 --> 00:53:13.400 Well within our lifetimes texas did have blue people like blue people yeah blue 00:53:13.400 --> 00:53:18.100 man group what it was only the the 80s that still had like that's right they. 00:53:18.100 --> 00:53:19.180 Had a democratic governor. 00:53:19.180 --> 00:53:21.540 Yeah and senators and such. 00:53:21.540 --> 00:53:23.800 And senators yeah i forgot about that. 00:53:27.420 --> 00:53:32.780 Called florida no wow gee yeah i know you'd already called florida, 00:53:33.620 --> 00:53:41.520 oh let me do that um i think i'm yeah i'm not i just don't like the washington 00:53:41.520 --> 00:53:44.940 post interface every time i click it i'm like i don't like this no it's it's. 00:53:44.940 --> 00:53:49.620 Terrible it's really terrible it's it's really bad i i just i have it up but 00:53:49.620 --> 00:53:53.300 i'm not i'm just looking at what they update but I'm barely using it. 00:53:53.400 --> 00:53:56.560 I'm really more toggling between New. 00:53:56.560 --> 00:53:57.920 York times and DDHQ. 00:53:58.260 --> 00:53:58.740 Yeah. 00:53:59.180 --> 00:54:03.520 For anybody else following along, let me, let me, I'll put the links in the 00:54:03.520 --> 00:54:07.360 chat to both the DDHQ page and the New York times page. 00:54:07.540 --> 00:54:13.020 If you haven't followed them, found them yourself just so we can do that. 00:54:13.280 --> 00:54:17.220 Where's my mouse? There's my, of course, every once in a while I should flip 00:54:17.220 --> 00:54:18.720 over to Senate and stuff, but. 00:54:19.060 --> 00:54:20.220 Ah, fuck the Senate. 00:54:23.120 --> 00:54:25.720 Oh, Rick Scott wins. Speaking of Senate. 00:54:26.460 --> 00:54:33.560 Yeah. Yeah. Well, Michigan has some votes and I see 2% New York times. 00:54:33.800 --> 00:54:36.240 See what it says. Harris way up. 00:54:36.500 --> 00:54:38.640 2% and it's all. 00:54:39.020 --> 00:54:42.520 It doesn't actually show where. Oh, near Detroit. Oh, Detroit suburb. 00:54:42.780 --> 00:54:45.060 Yeah. But not, not Detroit itself, but Detroit suburb. 00:54:46.910 --> 00:54:49.190 This Ohio one is really intriguing. 00:54:49.670 --> 00:54:50.330 I know. 00:54:50.950 --> 00:54:53.650 Like that would, that one would be a surprise. 00:54:54.090 --> 00:54:56.390 That one would be a shocker. Yes, absolutely. 00:54:57.830 --> 00:55:03.070 And I mean, only 30% in, but it it's that leads hanging on so far. 00:55:03.090 --> 00:55:07.750 But yeah, I mean, because North Carolina Harris is up, but it's only 7% reporting. 00:55:07.890 --> 00:55:12.550 So that's not, you know, that much, but, but Ohio is, is, is there's, 00:55:12.610 --> 00:55:16.310 they've got 30, they got a third of the vote in and it's, it's a, 00:55:16.910 --> 00:55:23.550 it's a substantial lead it's 140 000 lead you know vote lead it's not a small lead so and and. 00:55:23.550 --> 00:55:28.090 If if ohio goes that's a indication of michigan and pennsylvania. 00:55:28.090 --> 00:55:32.090 Yeah and wisconsin yeah um but. 00:55:32.090 --> 00:55:34.690 Like i don't know this is one. 00:55:34.690 --> 00:55:41.490 Of those where i i don't know it's just too yeah it's still too early And most of it's from the. 00:55:41.490 --> 00:55:42.450 The, yeah. 00:55:44.230 --> 00:55:45.190 I know. 00:55:45.910 --> 00:55:50.050 Well, Donald Trump has taken the lead in Texas with 17% in. 00:55:50.650 --> 00:55:53.450 Yeah. Jeez. Okay. Pete, there you go. 00:55:53.630 --> 00:55:58.810 There goes, there, there goes your, yeah, no, no more leading in Texas. 00:55:59.050 --> 00:56:02.470 I think what everybody's looking for, for Texas is Ted Cruz. 00:56:02.710 --> 00:56:05.590 It's the 50, 50, 49, by the way. Oh, yeah, I know. 00:56:05.730 --> 00:56:06.750 It's still close, but. 00:56:07.110 --> 00:56:10.570 But, but yeah. Ah, how counties 00:56:10.570 --> 00:56:13.510 are shifting there you go so so bob just 00:56:13.510 --> 00:56:16.490 shared that map also let's see i got 00:56:16.490 --> 00:56:20.690 that up now or here another screen so 00:56:20.690 --> 00:56:26.570 okay this is a good thing so florida is showing that it went redder which that 00:56:26.570 --> 00:56:30.650 was like the information that we saw but dude this thing is showing ohio is 00:56:30.650 --> 00:56:36.710 going way bluer yeah big time bluer yeah that. 00:56:36.710 --> 00:56:38.370 Would be huge. 00:56:38.370 --> 00:56:43.590 Yeah and it's showing big time bluer in ohio holy shit and. 00:56:43.590 --> 00:56:47.050 That's 17 electoral votes that's almost as big as pennsylvania. 00:56:47.050 --> 00:56:50.330 And and and in in in in 00:56:50.330 --> 00:56:53.210 georgia it's also showing that you know 00:56:53.210 --> 00:56:56.330 where biden won is also 00:56:56.330 --> 00:56:59.330 bluer as well but the ohio 00:56:59.330 --> 00:57:02.870 number is the one that's really interesting we're showing that it 00:57:02.870 --> 00:57:07.430 is significantly bluer shit oh 00:57:07.430 --> 00:57:12.870 god don't don't fuck don't don't don't don't fuck with me don't don't play with 00:57:12.870 --> 00:57:16.310 me numbers man don't don't fuck with me don't don't don't don't play this game 00:57:16.310 --> 00:57:21.290 come on well at least that mob map from from the washington post is better than 00:57:21.290 --> 00:57:27.250 that yes that one is good Yeah, their main one is terrible, but this is good. 00:57:28.030 --> 00:57:31.610 Yeah, this one is definitely very good. But damn. 00:57:34.210 --> 00:57:38.710 Virginia, 31%. Let's see. Ugh, come on. 00:57:40.590 --> 00:57:44.650 Let's see what you get. 1% in Kansas trumps ahead. 00:57:45.370 --> 00:57:50.630 Oh, well. Well, the margin in Virginia has gotten tighter. It's now about 51.47. 00:57:50.830 --> 00:57:52.090 So that's about four points. 00:57:52.450 --> 00:57:54.250 Which is about what was expected. 00:57:54.690 --> 00:57:54.930 Yeah. 00:57:55.290 --> 00:58:02.270 I mean, my, let's see, what was my Virginia average? 6.1, Harris by 6.1. 00:58:02.570 --> 00:58:08.110 Now, the interesting thing is that the map that they produced for in here, 00:58:08.250 --> 00:58:09.770 it's not showing North Carolina. 00:58:10.590 --> 00:58:14.530 swings yet but actually there are some that is showing that it's definitely 00:58:14.530 --> 00:58:18.570 two some of the votes that are coming in well no the the one but the ones that 00:58:18.570 --> 00:58:21.530 are showing up is showing that north carolina definitely bluer in the places 00:58:21.530 --> 00:58:23.890 that it that votes have been coming in than before. 00:58:23.890 --> 00:58:27.930 Well bottom left hand corner of north carolina look there's some red arrows there. 00:58:28.430 --> 00:58:31.850 Yeah but if you look at the top like around where 00:58:31.850 --> 00:58:35.490 raleigh where the big population center it's got a blue arrow there the other 00:58:35.490 --> 00:58:39.750 way so but it's just very but very little data very little data very little 00:58:39.750 --> 00:58:44.090 data ohio they've got a lot more data and they're showing it's that that map 00:58:44.090 --> 00:58:50.230 is like it's is the polar opposite of of uh of of florida. 00:58:50.230 --> 00:58:54.590 Right i've got i've got my four up news channels here on the the phone and none 00:58:54.590 --> 00:59:01.170 of the four have mentioned ohio yet as that as i can see so i'm wondering why not because it just. 00:59:01.170 --> 00:59:06.050 It does seem interesting i mean i don't know these fucking people older talking 00:59:06.050 --> 00:59:07.210 about is bullshit all days. 00:59:07.330 --> 00:59:10.850 Why don't I'm not even listening to what the fuck they're saying, for God's sakes. 00:59:12.310 --> 00:59:15.910 I don't know. There's like just a lot of dribble gibberish. 00:59:17.150 --> 00:59:18.350 Okay, they're talking about Michigan. 00:59:19.050 --> 00:59:22.050 Well, the Michigan votes then, but that's 2%. I mean, whatever. 00:59:22.550 --> 00:59:22.870 Yeah, no. 00:59:22.970 --> 00:59:25.970 Pennsylvania is up to 5%. The margin is ridiculous. 00:59:26.570 --> 00:59:26.990 Yeah, yeah. 00:59:27.150 --> 00:59:28.670 I mean, no, no, no, no, no. 00:59:29.350 --> 00:59:31.450 It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. It's Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. 00:59:31.470 --> 00:59:37.910 Yeah, but dude, dude, it's 76 to 23. Okay, all right, that's not, you know... 00:59:38.880 --> 00:59:45.980 I mean, it's 76 to 23. It's not, you know, it's, I mean, that number is like beyond overwhelming. 00:59:46.540 --> 00:59:51.420 Right. Yeah. Well, yeah, the New York Times definitely has the best interface 00:59:51.420 --> 00:59:55.260 here for like clicking into states and seeing details and blah, blah, blah. 00:59:56.620 --> 01:00:01.440 Like DDHQ is sometimes faster with some of the information, but New York Times has the best interface. 01:00:01.720 --> 01:00:04.520 Yeah. Yeah. In order to dive into what's going on. Yeah. 01:00:05.120 --> 01:00:06.960 And oh, oh, DDHQ. 01:00:06.960 --> 01:00:12.820 By the way, the DDHQ margin, the chance is dropping like a rock all of a sudden. 01:00:12.960 --> 01:00:18.360 Yeah, and they've colored in Ohio leaning blue. They haven't called it yet, 01:00:18.500 --> 01:00:19.900 but they've colored it in leaning blue. 01:00:21.000 --> 01:00:23.000 They've got Pennsylvania leaning blue. 01:00:23.200 --> 01:00:23.920 And North Carolina. 01:00:24.160 --> 01:00:26.440 They've got Michigan leaning blue. And Virginia and North Carolina. 01:00:26.560 --> 01:00:26.980 That's right. 01:00:27.720 --> 01:00:28.740 That's game over. 01:00:28.860 --> 01:00:30.600 That's game over if that's the case. 01:00:31.220 --> 01:00:32.160 Holy fuck. 01:00:34.300 --> 01:00:35.780 It's a Christmas miracle. 01:00:36.360 --> 01:00:38.340 Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. 01:00:38.660 --> 01:00:42.320 Listen, if that's true, I'm going to cry. I mean, I'm serious. 01:00:42.900 --> 01:00:44.840 You're going to have me crying here. 01:00:45.440 --> 01:00:48.900 I'll take losing Georgia if you get North Carolina and Ohio. 01:00:49.620 --> 01:00:52.460 Like, no, Ohio wasn't on anybody's radar. 01:00:52.680 --> 01:00:53.300 No! No! 01:00:54.430 --> 01:00:56.290 I mean, I mean. 01:00:56.410 --> 01:01:01.070 There were a couple of points. Let me, let me look at my Ohio graph for a second. 01:01:01.770 --> 01:01:07.810 There were a couple of polls showing it close, but they look, they were outliers. 01:01:08.130 --> 01:01:08.610 Right. 01:01:09.010 --> 01:01:14.530 Like there was a, there was a Miami university poll in Ohio that actually just 01:01:14.530 --> 01:01:19.390 came out a few days ago, but was in the field like the last week is in the field, 01:01:19.570 --> 01:01:23.230 October 28th to October 30th that had Trump only had by 3%. 01:01:23.230 --> 01:01:29.210 But also in the last week, there were a whole bunch of other polls showing him 01:01:29.210 --> 01:01:33.810 up six, up seven, up as high as 12, like in Ohio. 01:01:34.270 --> 01:01:38.930 So that Trump only up by three in Ohio was definitely an outlier. 01:01:39.330 --> 01:01:45.250 So I don't know if this is a situation. Oh, Ohio's down to 51-48, 01:01:45.450 --> 01:01:46.750 according to New York Times, or 37. 01:01:47.050 --> 01:01:48.490 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I get that. 01:01:48.570 --> 01:01:51.730 So this may slip away. like that though. 01:01:51.730 --> 01:01:57.790 This by the way decision desk has it at at 54 to 45 still okay by the way but 01:01:57.790 --> 01:02:02.870 but i do they do they don't have as many votes yeah yeah so that yeah it's 1.6 01:02:02.870 --> 01:02:05.290 million versus let's see what's the number so. 01:02:05.290 --> 01:02:06.430 I think i think this is a blue. 01:02:06.430 --> 01:02:15.490 Moron wait no no no no wait they have more yes yes yes they're looking at 1.6 01:02:15.490 --> 01:02:22.710 million votes in in in ddhq versus oh versus new york times only has about two 01:02:22.710 --> 01:02:25.090 now they're up to two million now they're up to two million okay. 01:02:25.790 --> 01:02:28.630 New york times is 36 percent in uh. 01:02:28.630 --> 01:02:30.790 Yeah now that oh. 01:02:30.790 --> 01:02:32.970 Man that was exciting to think about for a few seconds. 01:02:32.970 --> 01:02:35.610 It's still that it's still you know still. 01:02:35.610 --> 01:02:39.390 In play it's still in play it's still closer than people thought maybe but. 01:02:39.390 --> 01:02:45.390 No and the map listen like i said the the the the map that we're looking at 01:02:45.390 --> 01:02:51.110 is still showing that ohio is definitely bluer right the the the the map on 01:02:51.110 --> 01:02:55.510 the on the washington post is showing that that is that that is still the case 01:02:55.510 --> 01:02:57.370 it that that has not changed, 01:02:58.490 --> 01:03:02.790 And the change in Georgia, the changes look slight. 01:03:03.010 --> 01:03:08.850 You know how they show the arrows where there is some slight red movement, 01:03:08.890 --> 01:03:12.230 but there's also a blue movement in Georgia. 01:03:12.870 --> 01:03:19.930 But if you look at where the blue movement is, it's in areas of larger population. 01:03:20.230 --> 01:03:23.230 So that one is, you know. 01:03:24.370 --> 01:03:25.010 Yeah. 01:03:25.890 --> 01:03:29.430 Well, by the way, North Carolina is still four point lead, but 9% in, 01:03:29.550 --> 01:03:31.810 but I'm not, I'm not sure where. 01:03:32.990 --> 01:03:38.470 Pete says Ohio always does this. The cities report first and then a 98% rural 01:03:38.470 --> 01:03:39.490 counties overwhelm them. 01:03:39.930 --> 01:03:43.970 No, but, but, but the one thing is Pete, the different, the thing is that the 01:03:43.970 --> 01:03:48.230 Washington Post map is showing that there is a substantial swing towards blue 01:03:48.230 --> 01:03:51.570 votes in everywhere. which doesn't ohio which. 01:03:51.570 --> 01:03:56.390 Doesn't mean harris will win but it looks like it's going to be closer than it was. 01:03:56.390 --> 01:03:59.950 Correct four years ago right but but 01:03:59.950 --> 01:04:02.650 basically all the arrows are blue i mean 01:04:02.650 --> 01:04:08.470 every single one and and and and and and and the shifts are here's the one thing 01:04:08.470 --> 01:04:11.390 it's not just the shift the shifts that they're showing are large i don't know 01:04:11.390 --> 01:04:13.930 if you're looking at you know the size of the arrow in terms of size of the 01:04:13.930 --> 01:04:21.150 shift if you look at it there's a lot of very large arrows in in that ohio map they're not small new. 01:04:21.150 --> 01:04:25.450 York times calls hi a likely r they have a little they don't have the real needle 01:04:25.450 --> 01:04:30.510 but they have like a little icon of the needle they're calling pennsylvania 01:04:30.510 --> 01:04:34.570 toss-up michigan a toss-up north carolina toss-up. 01:04:34.570 --> 01:04:37.650 Oh i oh yeah yeah i see georgia. 01:04:37.650 --> 01:04:39.470 Toss-up that's not really. 01:04:39.470 --> 01:04:43.290 Helpful it's not very helpful new york times and there's a reason apparently 01:04:43.290 --> 01:04:48.750 why you fucking shut this thing off let's see what about north carolina toss-up 01:04:48.750 --> 01:04:55.310 yeah they got north carolina toss-up what time is wisconsin close well. 01:04:55.310 --> 01:05:00.450 Let me check my map wisconsin 9 p.m eastern 9 p.m. 01:05:00.450 --> 01:05:06.690 Eastern listen i will say this though the ddhq percent chance is that it is 01:05:06.690 --> 01:05:09.510 swung substantially hard the other way. 01:05:09.510 --> 01:05:13.670 Yeah they are now at well 61 percent trump. 01:05:13.670 --> 01:05:18.510 Yeah but that but that's actually down from 72 yeah and but no but it's it's 01:05:18.510 --> 01:05:23.090 down from like where it started this is like the lowest it is it started tracking 01:05:23.090 --> 01:05:26.030 is what i'm looking at right now yeah their their. 01:05:26.030 --> 01:05:30.670 Current projection is 276 electoral votes for trump 262 for harris. 01:05:30.670 --> 01:05:36.450 They started at around 61.60 they started they started around 60 and right now 01:05:36.450 --> 01:05:41.210 it's well it's it's around the same number it swung up but then it it it pushed 01:05:41.210 --> 01:05:46.810 back down as these returns came in oh what says. 01:05:46.810 --> 01:05:50.370 Pete says the needle just came back there it is the needle is there. 01:05:50.370 --> 01:05:53.150 I'm gonna call new jersey for for, 01:05:54.880 --> 01:05:59.520 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. There it is. Basically, yeah. And what is a show? Toss-up. 01:06:00.580 --> 01:06:06.540 With a slight lean towards Trump. Which is what the polling said before we started tonight. 01:06:07.200 --> 01:06:10.820 Correct. Basically, that is not new information. 01:06:11.420 --> 01:06:15.140 Yeah. Now, of course, what everybody on the Harris side was all hyped about 01:06:15.140 --> 01:06:18.800 was, looks like the polls are all wrong and they're missing something. 01:06:19.680 --> 01:06:21.340 We don't know that yet. 01:06:21.360 --> 01:06:22.880 We still don't know. We still don't know. 01:06:22.880 --> 01:06:28.700 Yeah, we still don't know that yet. So, I mean, that's the one thing. 01:06:28.860 --> 01:06:32.380 None of that we will know tonight, or the polls, right? 01:06:32.920 --> 01:06:38.720 I think the one thing we're seeing now, unless we get a real huge surprise somewhere, 01:06:39.040 --> 01:06:41.680 is that it really is close. 01:06:41.860 --> 01:06:43.000 It really is close. 01:06:43.140 --> 01:06:45.660 Like we had said, there's a whole range of possibilities. Well, 01:06:45.760 --> 01:06:50.380 there's still a whole range of possibilities, but that whole range could be 01:06:50.380 --> 01:06:55.020 determined by a whole bunch of states that really are close. like the problem. 01:06:55.020 --> 01:07:00.880 Is the electoral college magnifies things did you create my column of called states i i did. 01:07:00.880 --> 01:07:02.120 Not create a column for you. 01:07:02.120 --> 01:07:03.200 I'm you're an asshole. 01:07:03.200 --> 01:07:05.900 You can create your own damn spreadsheet. 01:07:05.900 --> 01:07:13.420 You have a spreadsheet hi manu well he can't hear you but yeah mono he said 01:07:13.420 --> 01:07:14.600 he said hi can you say hi i'm. 01:07:14.600 --> 01:07:16.380 On i'm on headphones too yeah. 01:07:16.380 --> 01:07:22.040 You want to say hi talk to a microphone hi oh there you go okay all right there 01:07:22.040 --> 01:07:29.320 you go kansas is showing blue in one map but but uh yeah the legal says very 01:07:29.320 --> 01:07:33.460 likely are but it's showing it's hilarious seven. 01:07:33.460 --> 01:07:40.700 Percent still close is it city oh much more data on the like changing states 01:07:40.700 --> 01:07:42.440 the changing counties thing. 01:07:42.440 --> 01:07:43.820 Lots lots. 01:07:43.820 --> 01:07:45.880 Of virginia redder than last time. 01:07:45.880 --> 01:07:47.360 Kentucky redder. 01:07:47.360 --> 01:07:54.100 Than last time florida redder yeah redder and georgia so far. 01:07:54.100 --> 01:08:00.940 Kansas is showing bluer the arrows that have come up way bluer ddhq. 01:08:00.940 --> 01:08:03.340 Has kansas leaning blue at the moment. 01:08:03.340 --> 01:08:04.160 Yeah. 01:08:06.180 --> 01:08:10.500 They still have a violating blue needle needle needle. 01:08:10.500 --> 01:08:13.240 Here's an interesting thing you know we're 01:08:13.240 --> 01:08:16.300 talking about cleveland ohio with 40 percent of the votes reported 01:08:16.300 --> 01:08:19.060 right yeah well the reality is that 01:08:19.060 --> 01:08:21.800 even from the cities they've only reported 40 percent of the votes 01:08:21.800 --> 01:08:26.780 from the cities and and that margin is overwhelming in the cities still but 01:08:26.780 --> 01:08:31.300 but they're reporting it's not like they already it's 100 of columbus or hamilton 01:08:31.300 --> 01:08:39.980 county or cuyahoga that's reported it's cuyahoga is 33% and Harris is up by 70 to 30. 01:08:40.820 --> 01:08:45.820 We got Franklin County is 70-30 as well, but only 40% of the votes. 01:08:46.260 --> 01:08:55.060 So there is still quite a lot of, and Toledo, the same 40% of the votes, 63-36. 01:08:55.300 --> 01:08:59.420 So you've got, yeah, I mean, that margin in Ohio has been shrinking. 01:08:59.640 --> 01:09:02.400 And right now it's like, actually in in the new york times 01:09:02.400 --> 01:09:05.300 data showing like right now trump leading by 01:09:05.300 --> 01:09:08.080 0.1 but but there's still 01:09:08.080 --> 01:09:11.300 a lot of votes also from from it's not 01:09:11.300 --> 01:09:16.820 like they they shot their load from from the big counties and there are still 01:09:16.820 --> 01:09:21.060 not votes to be counted right that's what it's it's looking at right right now 01:09:21.060 --> 01:09:25.460 so and actually i'm looking at the smaller counties they've reported larger 01:09:25.460 --> 01:09:30.640 percentages are you looking at ohio still yeah yeah donald. 01:09:30.640 --> 01:09:32.420 Trump has taken the lead in ohio now. 01:09:32.420 --> 01:09:35.120 Yeah by 0.1 yeah yeah yeah. 01:09:35.120 --> 01:09:42.360 That's why they didn't talk about ohio yet but it is closer it is close oh it's 01:09:42.360 --> 01:09:51.020 way closer florida abortion thing lost wow wow florida rejects proposal to include 01:09:51.020 --> 01:09:52.720 right to abortion in state's constitution. 01:09:57.110 --> 01:10:02.930 I'm speechless about that one. I mean, if you won't even vote for that, then... Wow. 01:10:04.370 --> 01:10:05.270 Toss up. 01:10:07.690 --> 01:10:09.210 Scanning all these states. 01:10:09.950 --> 01:10:14.870 I mean, I figured that even if they voted for this orange clown in Florida, they would have... 01:10:15.390 --> 01:10:23.070 By the way, legalized marijuana is only 55% as well. The abortion rights won 57%. 01:10:23.770 --> 01:10:32.310 so yeah no they didn't uh it's yeah so they they needed it's the threshold is 01:10:32.310 --> 01:10:35.190 well over 60 percent in order for that to trump's. 01:10:35.190 --> 01:10:42.150 Taking the lead in virginia 40 in still expected to go the other way but if 01:10:42.150 --> 01:10:45.730 you look at that county swing map virginia is all heading red. 01:10:45.730 --> 01:10:51.170 Yeah yeah yeah of course it It also depends on who's reporting right now. 01:10:51.810 --> 01:10:51.930 Yep. 01:10:55.750 --> 01:10:58.450 DDHQ's Trump win odds are back up to 71%. 01:10:58.450 --> 01:11:06.130 Yeah, I see that. Well, Harris has a healthy lead in Michigan right now with 5% of the vote in. 01:11:06.490 --> 01:11:10.790 And with 80% of the vote in Pennsylvania as well, but very early still. 01:11:11.090 --> 01:11:12.990 Yeah, those are still tiny numbers. 01:11:13.410 --> 01:11:19.930 Yeah. I mean, the needle has Virginia still lean deep, even with those votes, 01:11:20.050 --> 01:11:21.450 and North Carolina is still a toss-up. 01:11:21.930 --> 01:11:24.410 I'm not feeling as good as I was an hour and a half ago. 01:11:28.330 --> 01:11:30.470 Next poll's closing in five seconds. 01:11:31.190 --> 01:11:39.110 Who's closing now? Well, I didn't feel very good to start, so not exactly. 01:11:40.470 --> 01:11:43.470 I didn't feel good at all the entire time. 01:11:46.510 --> 01:11:47.210 Arkansas. 01:11:47.210 --> 01:11:51.250 Well Arkansas got called by DDHQ for Trump. 01:11:51.250 --> 01:11:56.910 Yeah I just added that I am off by one electoral vote what am I missing for 01:11:56.910 --> 01:12:01.690 oh okay now that's right four to 30 South Carolina okay. 01:12:01.690 --> 01:12:09.210 I will call Illinois for but you're not tracking me every rural county that 01:12:09.210 --> 01:12:16.070 they are showing in Ohio Look, in the Washington Post map, it shows the shift by, 01:12:16.690 --> 01:12:22.830 and it's, all the small counties are D plus a significant amount. 01:12:23.010 --> 01:12:24.170 But probably not enough. 01:12:24.530 --> 01:12:29.030 I mean, like D plus 9, D plus 8, D plus 8. 01:12:32.070 --> 01:12:38.330 die i mean it's not insignificant that's what i'm trying to say. 01:12:40.190 --> 01:12:46.150 Who do we have here what else did they do delaware uh. 01:12:46.150 --> 01:12:47.330 Okay yeah sure. 01:12:47.330 --> 01:12:54.550 Like my total i have the same states marked off as like these sites but my total 01:12:54.550 --> 01:12:59.070 doesn't add up the same and i've checked the votes in each state and they match 01:12:59.070 --> 01:13:01.970 so i'm like where did i get like where did i get 101 one. 01:13:02.210 --> 01:13:04.370 That doesn't match the states they lit up. 01:13:04.670 --> 01:13:06.730 You know, whatever. Okay. 01:13:07.650 --> 01:13:11.810 Hey, to the folks watching on the live stream, I see there are seven of you now. 01:13:11.910 --> 01:13:16.850 So if you haven't introduced yourself on the chat, feel free to jump in and say hi on the chat. 01:13:17.090 --> 01:13:20.110 Or not. You can stay quiet if you want. It's fine. 01:13:21.010 --> 01:13:24.730 Oh, the needle says Harris is on track to win the popular vote, though. 01:13:26.170 --> 01:13:27.130 Great. Thanks. 01:13:28.110 --> 01:13:33.390 Trump has pulled ahead in North Carolina with 14% in. Still ahead in Virginia. 01:13:34.270 --> 01:13:40.210 Oh, yeah. By 20 votes. Yes. In North Carolina. 01:13:40.510 --> 01:13:42.210 I know. I see it. I see it. 01:13:42.330 --> 01:13:45.550 I see it. It's not a good... 01:13:47.770 --> 01:13:49.070 Yeah, by 20 votes. 01:13:49.930 --> 01:13:55.190 Imagine if that was what the margin ended up as. You know, Donald Trump's lawsuits would go nuts. 01:13:55.610 --> 01:13:56.430 Oh, God. 01:13:57.610 --> 01:14:02.790 Or Harris's if it went the other way. Yeah. A 20-vote margin, anybody would sue over. 01:14:02.970 --> 01:14:04.610 Well, I think it's automatic recount. 01:14:04.830 --> 01:14:06.750 Well, that depends on the state. I don't know about North Carolina. 01:14:06.750 --> 01:14:09.730 But I don't know what the North Carolina rules are either. Yeah. 01:14:09.950 --> 01:14:11.970 So here's the interesting thing, Sam. 01:14:14.410 --> 01:14:21.610 Decision Desk is receiving more vote totals for Ohio. 01:14:23.350 --> 01:14:29.850 And Harris is ahead. And Harris continues to be ahead in Ohio at 35%. 01:14:29.850 --> 01:14:32.490 Well, but New York has 42% in. 01:14:32.690 --> 01:14:36.150 Yeah, but my question is, of course, which percentage should they have? 01:14:36.310 --> 01:14:40.410 Because the thing is that they keep, it's, you know, depending on where they're sourcing their data. 01:14:40.410 --> 01:14:44.990 the one thing is that the ohio one in in decision desk is consistently showed, 01:14:45.850 --> 01:14:49.190 showing it the other way so but but obviously you know it all depends on where 01:14:49.190 --> 01:14:52.770 you know the votes are that they're collecting are being reported from i'm gonna 01:14:52.770 --> 01:14:54.150 try to see if i can look at some of the. 01:14:54.150 --> 01:14:59.190 Oh dc that's the one vote that i'm missing they they gave dc dc has been called. 01:14:59.190 --> 01:15:05.990 Yeah well oh my god i'm so shocked sam yeah wait no that's that's. 01:15:05.990 --> 01:15:10.190 Not what i was missing but what i'm missing a red, I'm really missing a red. Let's see, for example. 01:15:10.370 --> 01:15:13.450 I'm looking at in the New York times. 01:15:13.870 --> 01:15:16.070 Okay. So I'm just comparing, I haven't looked at both, both, 01:15:16.230 --> 01:15:20.310 both, uh, both of the data Franklin County, which is where Columbus is. 01:15:20.490 --> 01:15:22.390 And they've got 40% of the vote in, okay. 01:15:22.870 --> 01:15:29.410 And in New York times and decision desk, they've, yeah, they've only got 38% of the vote in. 01:15:29.550 --> 01:15:32.230 So that's the big difference between one or the other. 01:15:32.470 --> 01:15:35.970 However, here's the thing. I would add a lot more votes to. 01:15:36.510 --> 01:15:39.370 So I don't know. So that's the one thing. 01:15:39.470 --> 01:15:43.470 It's very interesting how they're getting their data because they're obviously 01:15:43.470 --> 01:15:47.350 sourcing it significantly differently at this point. 01:15:47.750 --> 01:15:50.830 Jonathan wants to know when Trump is going to declare victory. 01:15:51.550 --> 01:15:52.070 Tonight? 01:15:52.490 --> 01:15:53.490 No, but what time? 01:15:54.050 --> 01:15:55.410 Oh, gosh, I don't know. 01:15:56.410 --> 01:16:01.470 I'd say Bannon chastised him like last week for waiting till two in the morning 01:16:01.470 --> 01:16:04.410 to declare victory last time and said he should do it at 10 p.m. 01:16:04.790 --> 01:16:06.490 So I'm going to guess 10 p.m. Eastern. 01:16:07.350 --> 01:16:11.730 Oh, 250,000 votes over here. 01:16:12.670 --> 01:16:17.670 They've got, it's very interesting. They've got the same number of votes in Columbus. 01:16:18.170 --> 01:16:22.450 Oh, they've got Illinois. Illinois just called, you called that a while ago, but. 01:16:22.710 --> 01:16:29.570 Oh, geez. Well, North Carolina right now in, in, it's a much bigger lead for, 01:16:29.770 --> 01:16:33.730 for in, in New York times, like right now that, uh, that it was, and they they've got it. 01:16:34.210 --> 01:16:38.010 They've got it shaded leaning red on, on DDHQ right now. 01:16:38.190 --> 01:16:38.490 Yep. 01:16:40.230 --> 01:16:44.370 51 to 48. Virginia is a lot closer. Fuck. 01:16:44.870 --> 01:16:47.750 Robinson lost in North Carolina, though. Expected. 01:16:48.670 --> 01:16:50.570 Robinson was a Republican? 01:16:50.890 --> 01:16:55.130 The crazy governor. The crazy governor who, like, Nazi porn or whatever it was. 01:16:55.370 --> 01:16:56.310 Oh, okay. All right. Well. 01:16:57.070 --> 01:17:01.730 This is going to come back to the blue wall states again, because it doesn't 01:17:01.730 --> 01:17:06.190 look good so far for the other potential pickups that Harris had. 01:17:06.710 --> 01:17:09.430 No. No. No. Not at all. No. 01:17:10.230 --> 01:17:14.630 Yeah, this is crazy, but you realize that right now Texas is close. 01:17:14.810 --> 01:17:18.730 I mean, which I guess makes sense given how much effort put into the states. 01:17:18.910 --> 01:17:21.750 I mean, Texas is closer than Florida. 01:17:22.190 --> 01:17:24.490 Florida is a blowout number. 01:17:25.450 --> 01:17:30.370 Well, there wasn't a lot of effort put into Texas either, except for Allred, 01:17:30.610 --> 01:17:32.310 but not necessarily for Harris. 01:17:33.090 --> 01:17:36.710 Yeah, but geez, it's not even, I mean. 01:17:36.710 --> 01:17:42.990 Just checking just checking senate results cruise is a head right with 50 of 01:17:42.990 --> 01:17:48.150 the votes in by how much 59.4 to 48.7. 01:17:48.150 --> 01:17:54.370 Wait 51.4 to 48 you said 49.4. 01:17:54.370 --> 01:17:55.830 To 48.7. 01:17:55.830 --> 01:18:01.930 49.4 to 48.7 49.4 to 48.7 it's that fucking close yeah with two with how much 01:18:01.930 --> 01:18:07.030 reported uh 50 holy shit that's Tight. 01:18:08.070 --> 01:18:09.690 Needle is moving redder. 01:18:10.770 --> 01:18:12.090 Not by much. 01:18:22.390 --> 01:18:26.370 say 43 what what are the next states that close at nine o'clock. 01:18:26.370 --> 01:18:31.730 Let me check my map you want nine o'clock closings louisiana iowa wisconsin 01:18:31.730 --> 01:18:38.250 new york minnesota nebraska south dakota wyoming colorado new mexico arizona. 01:18:38.250 --> 01:18:46.810 That's an interesting bunch at nine o'clock yeah i'll tell you what But Ohio is still super tight. 01:18:47.110 --> 01:18:55.010 I mean, what they're saying here in the data, 01:18:55.290 --> 01:19:00.670 which is that Columbus County still only reported, I don't care which source 01:19:00.670 --> 01:19:04.070 you look at, New York Times or so, only 40% of their votes. 01:19:04.510 --> 01:19:06.630 Cleveland only shows 33. 01:19:08.170 --> 01:19:13.050 And Cincinnati with only 37. I mean, 01:19:13.510 --> 01:19:21.970 Harris is winning all three by 65 to 30, you know, 35 March, 01:19:22.170 --> 01:19:24.630 70. I mean, almost like 70% to 30. 01:19:25.150 --> 01:19:33.450 I mean, if that's accurate, that's a big number of votes that have still not come in there in those. 01:19:33.910 --> 01:19:35.710 Whereas I'm looking at a lot of the 01:19:35.710 --> 01:19:40.290 smaller counties, their percentages of reported votes are a lot higher. 01:19:41.490 --> 01:19:47.210 They're north of 50% almost every small county that I've that I've clicked on. 01:19:48.950 --> 01:19:50.930 But there are a lot of them. They add up. 01:19:51.610 --> 01:19:56.850 No, but but Sam, it's not. It's I know what you're saying. I know what I'm saying. 01:19:57.190 --> 01:19:59.810 I'm the it's it's. 01:20:01.280 --> 01:20:05.960 it makes it very close. It doesn't, it's, it's, it makes it extremely close. 01:20:06.180 --> 01:20:09.360 Give it because yeah, Sam. Yeah. There are a lot of them. Yeah. 01:20:09.480 --> 01:20:10.720 Great. But you know, you know. 01:20:10.800 --> 01:20:16.440 I mean the bottom line from that Washington post chart is Trump lost a lot of 01:20:16.440 --> 01:20:21.420 ground in Ohio, no matter what the, but the thing is he had a lot of ground to lose. 01:20:21.900 --> 01:20:24.560 The question is, hello. 01:20:26.140 --> 01:20:28.360 Margin in Texas is up to 6% now. 01:20:28.800 --> 01:20:30.440 More, more like expected. 01:20:30.440 --> 01:20:37.040 More like what? Oh, for Cruz. Cruz. 2%. 01:20:37.040 --> 01:20:40.060 I really hate him. 01:20:40.640 --> 01:20:45.680 The house map is slowly filling in too, but it'll be a long time until we know what's going on. 01:20:45.960 --> 01:20:54.060 I mean, some of the key purple seats are in California. 01:20:54.280 --> 01:20:55.280 California takes weeks. 01:20:56.480 --> 01:20:58.800 And New York isn't all that speedy either. 01:20:59.560 --> 01:20:59.760 Yeah. 01:21:02.040 --> 01:21:05.040 Harris is still ahead in Kansas. 28% in. 01:21:06.140 --> 01:21:07.900 Let me see what's reported in Kansas. 01:21:13.340 --> 01:21:20.220 Not Wichita. Hey, my wife is home from pole duty. 01:21:20.900 --> 01:21:26.520 What? Hey, where are you going? What happened? No, we won't. We're live. 01:21:27.400 --> 01:21:30.160 well well you can you can save you're tired, 01:21:33.100 --> 01:21:38.880 I can get a kiss. Is that allowed? Yes. All right. Thank you. 01:21:39.760 --> 01:21:43.280 What the hell? New York Times doesn't have the county breakdowns in Maine. 01:21:43.580 --> 01:21:46.520 I'm not county. Congressional district breakdowns. 01:21:46.920 --> 01:21:47.320 Oh. 01:21:47.740 --> 01:21:52.280 And they matter in Maine and Nebraska. Does DDHQ have it? No. 01:21:53.780 --> 01:21:56.000 DDHQ has changed Ohio to leaning red. 01:21:56.640 --> 01:22:00.460 Yeah. Yeah, they did. Well, now they've got, now their number, 01:22:00.720 --> 01:22:06.500 yeah, they're reporting. they're at about the same reporting 43 45 percent. 01:22:06.500 --> 01:22:10.820 Or it's 65 in Georgia now and 5 01:22:10.820 --> 01:22:15.960 percent more do I think see unless all the missing votes are in Kansas is. 01:22:15.960 --> 01:22:21.260 Showing extremely I mean Oklahoma actually I'm looking at Oklahoma and I'm looking 01:22:21.260 --> 01:22:25.600 Kansas both of them are showing extreme moves to blue but but. 01:22:25.600 --> 01:22:28.960 But but they're so red it doesn't you know matter but 01:22:28.960 --> 01:22:34.720 yeah wow well not enough like that the whole thing we were talking about earlier 01:22:34.720 --> 01:22:40.600 about the 50 states strategy it should not be ignored even if they don't flip 01:22:40.600 --> 01:22:46.880 blue if ohio and kansas and oklahoma are bluer than they were four years ago 01:22:46.880 --> 01:22:48.440 that's something to pay attention that. 01:22:48.440 --> 01:22:49.280 Helps with the house. 01:22:49.280 --> 01:22:51.220 Well maybe not. 01:22:51.320 --> 01:22:58.420 You know, when, when you, when you invest enough time over time, over time, 01:22:58.760 --> 01:23:03.580 not, not in one cycle, but it's just, the problem is that you can't just not 01:23:03.580 --> 01:23:06.520 invest in it and just leave it, you know, um. 01:23:08.020 --> 01:23:09.960 Yeah, I mean, they did call Oklahoma for him. 01:23:11.360 --> 01:23:15.340 MSNBC is saying what we were talking about like an hour ago, 01:23:15.340 --> 01:23:23.060 that it does look like the public polling that said things are close was roughly right. 01:23:23.300 --> 01:23:29.620 Like the idea that it could be off in one direction and either Donald Trump 01:23:29.620 --> 01:23:33.220 or Harris could actually end up with a blowout tonight. 01:23:33.220 --> 01:23:39.660 So basically, the HLs that they did made it be closer to accurate. 01:23:40.060 --> 01:23:41.920 It looks that way. 01:23:42.160 --> 01:23:43.420 It's looking that way so far. 01:23:43.540 --> 01:23:49.360 Now, even still, if we've got a bunch of close states, the electoral college 01:23:49.360 --> 01:23:53.220 margin could still be big on either side. Correct. 01:23:53.360 --> 01:24:00.040 Because, you know, a 0.01% difference in a close state moves the entire set 01:24:00.040 --> 01:24:02.060 of electoral votes from one side to the other. 01:24:02.060 --> 01:24:05.500 but i hear you but it looks like this 01:24:05.500 --> 01:24:09.080 is going to potentially come down to several 01:24:09.080 --> 01:24:12.940 really close states now we're already like unless 01:24:12.940 --> 01:24:18.060 something changes dramatically and soon it looks like north carolina and georgia 01:24:18.060 --> 01:24:23.720 are not going to be two of those close states it could well be like what i'm 01:24:23.720 --> 01:24:28.020 in unless we see like a surprise in arizona or something and recent polling 01:24:28.020 --> 01:24:29.880 and if it looks like polling has been accurate. 01:24:30.420 --> 01:24:34.320 Arizona was getting red over the last couple of weeks, but unless we have a 01:24:34.320 --> 01:24:37.700 surprise from out there somewhere, Arizona, Nevada, whatever, 01:24:38.560 --> 01:24:40.280 it's the blue wall states again. 01:24:40.600 --> 01:24:45.920 It's Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the ones that it's all going to come down to here. 01:24:46.620 --> 01:24:50.220 I had Michigan and Wisconsin slightly bluer than Pennsylvania. 01:24:50.220 --> 01:24:52.820 So if they come through, it'll all be Pennsylvania. 01:24:53.700 --> 01:24:59.060 So we'll see. But of course, At this point, any one of those three could still 01:24:59.060 --> 01:25:01.580 go red, too. They could all go red. 01:25:02.160 --> 01:25:06.280 Donald Trump could still sweep all the close states. That's still very possible right now. 01:25:07.460 --> 01:25:09.440 Oh, New York Times has a shift page, too. 01:25:10.400 --> 01:25:10.540 Hmm? 01:25:11.120 --> 01:25:13.840 New York Times has a shift from 2020 page as well. 01:25:14.460 --> 01:25:16.040 Oh, they didn't. Okay. 01:25:16.420 --> 01:25:19.140 Except I just lost it. I hit them. 01:25:19.640 --> 01:25:19.920 Okay. 01:25:20.960 --> 01:25:26.700 Oh, there you go. Yeah. Now they only have, like, they don't, 01:25:26.740 --> 01:25:30.240 they're missing a bunch of states that Washington Post has the, 01:25:30.380 --> 01:25:34.640 for that margin by county live forecast. Yeah. 01:25:36.440 --> 01:25:37.480 Interesting pages. 01:25:38.760 --> 01:25:43.420 Ah, well, this page, those are good. Wisconsin close at nine, 01:25:43.620 --> 01:25:45.920 Iowa at nine, Minnesota at nine. Okay. Yes. 01:25:47.240 --> 01:25:50.860 Pennsylvania is so misleading. It's all the, it's all the population center. 01:25:51.580 --> 01:25:55.320 It's Pittsburgh and Philly. It's Pittsburgh and Philly and the suburbs. They're on. 01:25:56.540 --> 01:25:56.960 Yeah. 01:25:58.020 --> 01:26:03.480 Oh, did I, I already have New Jersey. New Jersey has been called. Did I? Nope. 01:26:03.660 --> 01:26:08.820 Yeah. New Jersey has been called. it is but not a lot of their votes only like 01:26:08.820 --> 01:26:12.880 for example philadelphia is only like 16 percent of vote 13 percent of the vote 01:26:12.880 --> 01:26:17.920 it's still but it's still a small percentage of the uh. 01:26:17.920 --> 01:26:20.900 Of the of the ones where the total vote of 01:26:20.900 --> 01:26:25.520 the ones where the expected margin was under 10 the only one called yet is florida 01:26:25.520 --> 01:26:30.500 and it went and it went in the direction it was expected to go but by more than 01:26:30.500 --> 01:26:35.660 it was expected to go yeah by by a decent amount if florida is an indication 01:26:35.660 --> 01:26:40.680 of anywhere else but again ohio is going to opposite direction um ohio. 01:26:40.680 --> 01:26:42.680 Is going to totally opposite direction so that's. 01:26:42.680 --> 01:26:48.020 And and virginia is virginia as well well virginia is going in the red direction 01:26:48.020 --> 01:26:52.880 virginia is much closer i mean trump's in the lead in virginia right now so 01:26:52.880 --> 01:26:57.160 now they still have it as lead d on new york times yeah. 01:26:57.160 --> 01:26:58.040 Yeah and so it. 01:26:58.040 --> 01:27:01.540 Must be well and wait wait usually that wait wait ddhq has 01:27:01.540 --> 01:27:04.960 called virginia for harris though okay so 01:27:04.960 --> 01:27:08.300 no wait wait wait like yo i 01:27:08.300 --> 01:27:13.780 i respect ddhq for their early calls they they look at the trends early but 01:27:13.780 --> 01:27:19.000 they called it for harris while she was behind you know and i well i know but 01:27:19.000 --> 01:27:22.780 i think because of why it's because of where it is where the remaining votes 01:27:22.780 --> 01:27:27.640 are i know i know but it's just it's just like it just seems in congress well actually by. 01:27:27.640 --> 01:27:30.880 The way in in in in uh new york times right now. 01:27:30.880 --> 01:27:31.900 I'm gonna move it though no. 01:27:31.900 --> 01:27:34.700 She's still behind no she's still behind she's still behind but but, 01:27:36.040 --> 01:27:36.780 She's still behind it. 01:27:37.800 --> 01:27:41.960 Okay, so Virginia is the second state that's been called that had a margin under 10. 01:27:42.860 --> 01:27:53.100 Although, like I said, DDA HQ feels early on this one, but DDA HQ is very good. Very good. 01:27:54.440 --> 01:27:59.420 I wish Pennsylvania and Michigan would report faster, but I know they're both 01:27:59.420 --> 01:28:01.860 going to be reporting for days, probably. 01:28:04.320 --> 01:28:08.520 Yeah, and Ohio. margin is definitely moving the other way the one thing is that 01:28:08.520 --> 01:28:10.020 i and i saw this in the last, 01:28:11.160 --> 01:28:14.380 election where ohio is very confusing 01:28:14.380 --> 01:28:17.300 in the in the way that i've seen how they report 01:28:17.300 --> 01:28:20.600 percentage of votes that that are yet 01:28:20.600 --> 01:28:24.260 to be counted okay where i 01:28:24.260 --> 01:28:27.220 the last couple of times i've seen these where it 01:28:27.220 --> 01:28:30.320 says that oh but there's a lot of votes leaving in the cities 01:28:30.320 --> 01:28:35.360 for whatever reason what i recall is that it didn't materialize in that way 01:28:35.360 --> 01:28:40.660 right which is why i think that that that you know the new york times is showing 01:28:40.660 --> 01:28:49.480 it as likely are right now period because of now that of that information tennessee. 01:28:49.480 --> 01:28:52.440 Called to another non-surprise. 01:28:52.440 --> 01:28:57.740 A non-surprise i see did you put down kentucky because i see kentucky. 01:28:57.740 --> 01:28:59.600 Yeah it was one of the very first ones called. 01:28:59.600 --> 01:29:02.200 I see missouri also called yep. 01:29:02.200 --> 01:29:08.940 Got that it was also a while ago oh i get it though the ddhq's number bars on 01:29:08.940 --> 01:29:13.620 the top the 128 versus 67 include all the leaning states not just the called states. 01:29:13.620 --> 01:29:15.380 Okay they. 01:29:15.380 --> 01:29:20.100 They should there should be two colors there oh oh michigan is leaning blue. 01:29:20.100 --> 01:29:21.460 Not called. 01:29:21.460 --> 01:29:23.700 Yet like by ddhq they just changed the color. 01:29:23.700 --> 01:29:29.000 No but yeah but it's leaning blue yeah yeah oh 15. 01:29:29.000 --> 01:29:34.820 And 9 come on It's all going to come down to these three fucking midwest states 01:29:34.820 --> 01:29:38.080 and they're going to be like, we're going to be waiting days. 01:29:43.080 --> 01:29:49.760 Which, by the way, everything so far is lining up with the poll averages as 01:29:49.760 --> 01:29:51.960 they were. Without corrections. 01:29:52.460 --> 01:29:56.680 We're not having... The one thing is, we're not having... 01:29:58.190 --> 01:30:00.710 I mean, we're not having the situation. 01:30:01.390 --> 01:30:06.310 Yeah, we're not having the situation where, oh, my God, the polls were missing X, Y, Z. 01:30:06.670 --> 01:30:11.550 And really, it's 5% bluer or 5% redder than what the polls were saying. 01:30:11.570 --> 01:30:13.150 Except in Florida. Except in Florida. 01:30:13.410 --> 01:30:13.950 Except in Florida. 01:30:13.970 --> 01:30:14.710 Yeah, except in Florida. 01:30:14.710 --> 01:30:18.970 Well, and Virginia. Virginia is about 5% redder than it was looking to. 01:30:19.190 --> 01:30:24.650 Well, not with the final tally. At this point, it's like, obviously, 01:30:24.950 --> 01:30:28.710 I mean, the fact that the DHQ called it is because they believe that that's 01:30:28.710 --> 01:30:32.710 going to wind back up again. So, you know. 01:30:33.010 --> 01:30:35.730 Yeah, but we don't know by how much. But yeah. 01:30:36.110 --> 01:30:39.350 We don't know by how much, but yeah. All right. So. 01:30:39.690 --> 01:30:42.910 Nebraska, too early to call. They're making some calls now. We just passed nine o'clock. 01:30:43.510 --> 01:30:45.330 Well, Nebraska over here says it's called. 01:30:45.470 --> 01:30:46.390 Colorado, too early. 01:30:46.990 --> 01:30:49.710 No, Nebraska over here says called. Okay. 01:30:51.210 --> 01:30:51.610 MSNBC. 01:30:52.450 --> 01:30:55.790 Both New York Times and whatever have Nebraska, South America. 01:30:55.990 --> 01:31:00.790 But they're not splitting Nebraska. Oh, my God. Like, is Nebraska 2 going to 01:31:00.790 --> 01:31:02.710 go blue like everyone expects or not? 01:31:03.230 --> 01:31:05.690 It needs to be separated out. Okay. 01:31:05.770 --> 01:31:07.250 They have two electoral. How much? 01:31:07.710 --> 01:31:12.070 Well, it's got four. It's got Nebraska has five. So two are for the statewide 01:31:12.070 --> 01:31:13.590 number and then one for each. 01:31:14.010 --> 01:31:16.990 Okay. All right. So they've got one that is two of them are. 01:31:17.250 --> 01:31:21.110 Okay. North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming. We got all kinds of states happening. 01:31:21.730 --> 01:31:27.810 Let's see, Wyoming, and let's do the North and South Dakota, 01:31:28.890 --> 01:31:31.970 Nebraska, all moving not over. 01:31:32.730 --> 01:31:36.550 Look, the one interesting thing that, you know, Ohio, the needle has it. 01:31:36.550 --> 01:31:40.070 There they go. New York Times, I didn't notice. They have the congressional 01:31:40.070 --> 01:31:42.970 districts over in the right-hand corner for Maine. 01:31:43.050 --> 01:31:45.990 Oh, okay. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. They have them at the bottom. Yeah, that's right. 01:31:47.170 --> 01:31:50.470 So, Ohio, New York Times does have it, likely are. 01:31:50.890 --> 01:31:55.510 Yeah. But North Carolina, no. They just have a toss-up. 01:31:55.630 --> 01:31:56.270 Slightly leaner. 01:31:56.290 --> 01:31:59.630 It's been toss-up. It's still a toss-up. 01:31:59.910 --> 01:32:05.850 That's the one that's... Decision Desk is calling Ohio for Trump. They just did. 01:32:06.210 --> 01:32:07.490 Okay. I'm moving Ohio. Okay. 01:32:09.480 --> 01:32:11.520 So whatever they're seeing. 01:32:12.460 --> 01:32:14.560 Closer than expected, but still are. 01:32:14.860 --> 01:32:16.860 Still are. Yeah. Yeah. 01:32:17.160 --> 01:32:20.920 Oh, and they called Nebraska three as well, which is not surprising. 01:32:21.100 --> 01:32:23.280 It is the reddest electoral vote in the country. 01:32:24.280 --> 01:32:25.840 Arizona polls closed, right? 01:32:26.160 --> 01:32:33.180 Yeah. Arizona polls just closed. The few counties with arrows in Pennsylvania 01:32:33.180 --> 01:32:34.980 are towards the blue side. 01:32:34.980 --> 01:32:42.160 and pennsylvania was a was in 2020 was super super close so maybe that's a good sign and. 01:32:42.160 --> 01:32:44.900 Not just some the big blue arrows too. 01:32:44.900 --> 01:32:52.100 Oh bunch of yellow things indicating updates see how's ted cruz doing leading 01:32:52.100 --> 01:32:57.740 by four percent now with 56 percent in ted cruz is going to pull. 01:32:59.120 --> 01:33:00.700 I'm not gonna make a choke about. 01:33:00.700 --> 01:33:07.040 It bruce would like this new mexico so far donald trump and chase oliver are 01:33:07.040 --> 01:33:14.860 tied for the lead in new mexico yeah yeah yeah no votes for harris at all yet oh. 01:33:14.860 --> 01:33:20.620 Okay they've got 656 to 655 votes there you go. 01:33:20.620 --> 01:33:22.520 That can't be real that can't even be. 01:33:22.520 --> 01:33:23.740 Real i don't know. 01:33:23.740 --> 01:33:32.440 I mean even at less than one percent that can't be real and zero for harris yeah right uh yeah. 01:33:32.440 --> 01:33:36.140 Whoa must be some libertarian colony. 01:33:36.140 --> 01:33:43.840 Kansas harris still leading in kansas with 35 of the vote in but i'm sure that's all from the cities, 01:33:44.580 --> 01:33:52.440 i mean dbhq called kansas already for missouri is also harris ahead but likely 01:33:52.440 --> 01:33:53.760 not to stay that way because it's 01:33:53.760 --> 01:34:00.560 all st louis i iowa with less than one percent in trump is leading yeah. 01:34:00.560 --> 01:34:02.420 All right let's see. 01:34:02.420 --> 01:34:07.080 Louisiana louisiana no louisiana was called a while ago. 01:34:07.080 --> 01:34:12.540 Yeah colorado well colorado results are in i i heavily. 01:34:12.540 --> 01:34:18.700 Heavily blue yeah as expected but not called yet no. 01:34:18.700 --> 01:34:21.120 I think it'll be called soon though. 01:34:21.120 --> 01:34:27.020 Trump wins texas louisiana north dakota south dakota wyoming and kansas according 01:34:27.020 --> 01:34:35.000 to alert texas is now called let's move that over wait that number okay that 01:34:35.000 --> 01:34:39.420 didn't change okay okay we're still waiting for the big seven, 01:34:43.670 --> 01:34:47.890 So far, Michigan and PA leaning blue, which is what they need to be doing. 01:34:48.070 --> 01:34:51.390 But the percentages in are so small. Well, 01:34:54.150 --> 01:34:58.730 Fox is actually talking about Ohio right now. Do we have Ohio Senate? 01:34:59.790 --> 01:35:01.570 I mean, the decision has called up. 01:35:02.190 --> 01:35:05.450 Ohio Senate? Not New York Times. Marino is ahead of shared broad. 01:35:06.690 --> 01:35:08.510 DDHQ called it for Marino? 01:35:09.070 --> 01:35:11.870 No, no, no, no, no, no. I was just talking about the. 01:35:12.090 --> 01:35:12.530 Presidential. 01:35:13.670 --> 01:35:17.350 But they haven't called the Senate. DDSQ called the presidential, 01:35:17.650 --> 01:35:21.370 but definitely not the Senate. They still got it. It's undecided. 01:35:22.210 --> 01:35:26.270 Bruce just said woohoo, so he must have just seen. There's a few minutes. 01:35:27.410 --> 01:35:30.070 The stream delays a little bit. There's some buffering. 01:35:31.450 --> 01:35:36.370 So we get the responses on the chat potentially a couple minutes after we say something. 01:35:36.910 --> 01:35:42.390 Of course. Oops. It's a few minutes delayed right now? I don't think it's a 01:35:42.390 --> 01:35:43.590 few minutes. i think it's a few seconds. 01:35:43.590 --> 01:35:52.870 Let's see i'm gonna i'm gonna put my hand up one two three four five six seven 01:35:52.870 --> 01:35:58.110 eight nine nine seconds behind that's not that okay that's not that bad. 01:35:58.110 --> 01:35:58.750 That's not that. 01:35:59.310 --> 01:36:03.210 Well at least to my interface over here like who knows well to me. 01:36:03.210 --> 01:36:07.230 It was about five or six more seconds later so yeah but but still it's 20 seconds it's not minutes. 01:36:08.990 --> 01:36:13.330 Yeah, Karnacki is talking about various counties that are redder now than they 01:36:13.330 --> 01:36:20.310 were four years ago in North Carolina, which is why it's toss up but leaning Trump right now. 01:36:22.040 --> 01:36:27.820 The blue part of the needle is getting smaller, which basically says Harris 01:36:27.820 --> 01:36:31.540 can still pull it out, but it's going to be a narrow electoral college victory 01:36:31.540 --> 01:36:34.700 if he does, which it goes back to what I was saying. 01:36:34.900 --> 01:36:41.440 It looks like all of the potential pickups, well, not pickup even, Georgia was, you know, 01:36:42.400 --> 01:36:46.500 but it looks like Georgia and North Carolina are staying red this time, 01:36:46.520 --> 01:36:52.080 which basically means you need Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. 01:36:52.380 --> 01:36:56.580 There are some scenarios that involve Arizona, but Arizona was looking worse 01:36:56.580 --> 01:36:57.860 for Harris than Georgia was. 01:36:58.560 --> 01:37:02.400 So, you know, so if Georgia goes red, Arizona probably does too. 01:37:02.600 --> 01:37:07.160 Although this is one of the cases where they are very different states on very 01:37:07.160 --> 01:37:09.840 different parts of the country, but same time. 01:37:11.860 --> 01:37:18.120 Okay. New Mexico's fixed now. Now, Trump is ahead with 2% of the votes in, 01:37:18.280 --> 01:37:24.200 but we no longer have the situation with Harris nothing and the Libertarian tied for number one. 01:37:25.860 --> 01:37:30.200 And Jonathan asks about Florida. Yes, they rejected the pro-choice thing and 01:37:30.200 --> 01:37:31.240 they rejected marijuana. 01:37:31.660 --> 01:37:37.340 They rejected both, yeah. Wisconsin has like a tiny amount of votes in, 01:37:37.760 --> 01:37:39.760 nothing, like 700 votes. 01:37:40.400 --> 01:37:43.980 New york times has about 3 000 now but still. 01:37:43.980 --> 01:37:46.520 Still tiny yeah nothing whatever trump. 01:37:46.520 --> 01:37:47.880 Leading those 3 000 though. 01:37:47.880 --> 01:37:48.760 Yeah, 01:37:52.980 --> 01:37:57.440 yeah john but we we didn't answer that right yeah they rejected both yeah john 01:37:57.440 --> 01:38:03.420 yeah you know you're ready oh well i mean let's see new york times called a 01:38:03.420 --> 01:38:07.660 few more states nothing Like North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska. 01:38:07.880 --> 01:38:09.120 They did that a while ago. I got those. 01:38:09.900 --> 01:38:14.140 Wyoming. But something added. Texas. 01:38:14.640 --> 01:38:18.220 I got that. But it was the most recent one, I think. 01:38:20.680 --> 01:38:26.460 Hey, why are you in my chair? Once the food arrives, I'm taking my chair. Really? 01:38:27.660 --> 01:38:31.220 This is going to be one of those things where even if Harris pulls it out, 01:38:31.820 --> 01:38:36.600 it's going to be incredibly depressing that it was so close and of course there's 01:38:36.600 --> 01:38:41.300 still the very real possibility that Trump wins which will be even more depressing. 01:38:42.020 --> 01:38:46.440 Well New Hampshire do you have New Hampshire for Harris? 01:38:46.660 --> 01:38:52.200 No did DDHQ just call it? Yeah okay I'm moving it over oops, 01:38:53.420 --> 01:39:00.460 Still, none of the big seven. And no state has been a surprise so far. 01:39:00.980 --> 01:39:05.740 Some of the margins have been surprising, but no actual state has gone. 01:39:06.580 --> 01:39:13.680 But let's be clear. We can call California, Washington, and Oregon for Harris. Okay. You know, why? 01:39:13.940 --> 01:39:18.380 Well, my counts, like the count I have that says the range of possibilities 01:39:18.380 --> 01:39:24.220 is from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86 still remains because it does call all 01:39:24.220 --> 01:39:25.300 of those states effectively. 01:39:25.680 --> 01:39:28.300 It calls every state except the seven. 01:39:29.340 --> 01:39:32.360 So what I'm saying is that if you want to your EV count right now, 01:39:32.520 --> 01:39:37.120 look, I think I think I can safely say right now without the polls having closed 01:39:37.120 --> 01:39:43.400 that those three are going to and I can safely say that Utah is going to Trump, 01:39:43.600 --> 01:39:46.080 Idaho and Montana. I can call. 01:39:46.260 --> 01:39:49.680 Well, I'll call for you. hawaii california 01:39:49.680 --> 01:39:53.240 maine's first washington new york colorado 01:39:53.240 --> 01:39:57.020 oregon maine maine at large also 01:39:57.020 --> 01:40:00.760 nebraska's first kansas louisiana montana 01:40:00.760 --> 01:40:03.540 utah and ida there you 01:40:03.540 --> 01:40:06.660 go those those are all the no-brainers that like 01:40:06.660 --> 01:40:09.860 right it would take a universe shaking event 01:40:09.860 --> 01:40:13.500 for one of those states to go the opposite direction exact exact 01:40:13.500 --> 01:40:16.380 you know and so far we haven't had 01:40:16.380 --> 01:40:20.000 a surprise in the next tier either that's like 01:40:20.000 --> 01:40:24.580 states like new hampshire and virginia and florida 01:40:24.580 --> 01:40:29.360 ohio texas yeah we haven't had a surprise in that next year and we haven't gotten 01:40:29.360 --> 01:40:36.680 we have yet to have the first call in one of the core seven um but at the moment 01:40:36.680 --> 01:40:43.480 we have you know it looks like north carolina and georgia are probably doing Trump, 01:40:44.340 --> 01:40:50.420 and the others are still too close to call not enough votes so yeah. 01:40:51.420 --> 01:40:56.440 Now, look, well, I don't know. I was going to say, look, Georgia the last time. 01:40:56.800 --> 01:41:01.080 Well, the way that it went and why they are calling it is that. 01:41:01.340 --> 01:41:02.740 It came back late. 01:41:03.380 --> 01:41:06.340 Very late. Yeah, it was very late. 01:41:06.860 --> 01:41:12.140 So that's the thing like where we're like right now when it happened, it was super late. 01:41:13.980 --> 01:41:19.680 So that's I think that's the that's the critical part to know about this, 01:41:19.700 --> 01:41:27.300 where I'm looking at Gwinnett County right now is only 18% of the vote and that has a lot of votes. 01:41:28.200 --> 01:41:32.720 I mean that has and Harris that is a very blue county, 01:41:34.440 --> 01:41:40.680 they've got 20% of those 60,000 so far it's like 300,000 votes to count still 01:41:40.680 --> 01:41:48.900 and that's not that's not in yet Fulton is in for the most part so that's a 01:41:48.900 --> 01:41:53.800 big one but that's a very big one that is not reported. 01:41:54.100 --> 01:41:58.820 And what I'm seeing is that most of the small counties are over 95% reported, 01:41:58.860 --> 01:42:05.780 which is why I think nobody's called Georgia because of that and what the margin is. 01:42:06.920 --> 01:42:14.160 So it's leaning R, but it's looking once again, as usual, as a fucking nail biter. 01:42:15.780 --> 01:42:23.300 In North Carolina, still 50-49. The margin is 40,000 votes. It's a very narrow margin as well. 01:42:23.580 --> 01:42:30.880 If you remember in 2020, it was the closest state that Biden lost. It was also very narrow. 01:42:31.700 --> 01:42:38.840 Yeah. So it's definitely a good reason why this isn't called yet because it's 01:42:38.840 --> 01:42:41.900 definitely, the margin is still super tight. 01:42:41.900 --> 01:42:48.280 so yeah it's it's reasonable that neither ddhq or new york times haven't called 01:42:48.280 --> 01:42:54.120 these because of how the margins have been there so pennsylvania michigan still 01:42:54.120 --> 01:42:55.700 toss up wisconsin toss up, 01:42:56.520 --> 01:43:04.000 i mean with you know the votes in pennsylvania michigan harris is still in a solid lead but and the. 01:43:06.000 --> 01:43:11.700 So in terms of percent win chance, DDHQ has Trump up to 69.2, 01:43:11.940 --> 01:43:19.580 and New York Times has him at 66, which again, I'll say, very close to what election graphs had, 01:43:20.520 --> 01:43:23.360 which doesn't make me happy, by the way. 01:43:23.420 --> 01:43:30.040 I was hoping that there was a massive underestimation of Harris and that we'd 01:43:30.040 --> 01:43:31.880 have a Harris blowout. That is not happening. 01:43:31.880 --> 01:43:34.560 Well well the one thing that you know 01:43:34.560 --> 01:43:37.880 we we're trying to make sure is that you know how many you 01:43:37.880 --> 01:43:40.500 know we know the pollsters have compensated and the 01:43:40.500 --> 01:43:43.840 question was by did they overcompensate compensate 01:43:43.840 --> 01:43:47.840 right that was the question it doesn't look like they overcompensated it looks 01:43:47.840 --> 01:43:52.240 like they've got it closer to what they've got it close to reality more than 01:43:52.240 --> 01:44:03.260 anything else um so the first arrows in iowa are showing big blue swings. 01:44:05.060 --> 01:44:11.680 Yep well and iowa at the moment does have harris ahead at the moment but only 01:44:11.680 --> 01:44:13.380 10 percent in and all from cities. 01:44:13.380 --> 01:44:16.900 Yeah all from des moines but still yeah but 01:44:16.900 --> 01:44:20.380 but they're showing arrows from like the smaller areas 01:44:20.380 --> 01:44:23.280 and those are i i see yeah 01:44:23.280 --> 01:44:26.540 yeah the air yeah that so the the blue arrow isn't 01:44:26.540 --> 01:44:31.760 from there from des moines it's showing okay you know whatever like plus six 01:44:31.760 --> 01:44:37.380 but it's showing some of the smaller counties like a d plus 12 yeah i'm looking 01:44:37.380 --> 01:44:43.960 at the other one is a d plus 11 another small county so so what is coming in, 01:45:04.120 --> 01:45:06.540 doorbell go off so much well. 01:45:06.540 --> 01:45:08.020 Right now i think pizza's being delivered. 01:45:08.760 --> 01:45:09.200 Ah, okay. 01:45:10.720 --> 01:45:12.480 Well, and the little ringy noise 01:45:12.480 --> 01:45:17.620 is not the doorbell. It's just motion detection in front of the house. 01:45:17.960 --> 01:45:18.600 Oh, okay. 01:45:19.660 --> 01:45:22.760 Which makes the dog go crazy. 01:45:23.500 --> 01:45:26.820 Well, that's what I'm saying. It's very sensitive. Mine doesn't go off that often. 01:45:27.180 --> 01:45:32.120 Well, I mean, someone was actually here. Although the most entertaining thing 01:45:32.120 --> 01:45:36.700 with the motion detection is when a spider builds a web directly in front of 01:45:36.700 --> 01:45:40.960 it and sets it off. like all the time until you go out and move the spider. 01:45:43.100 --> 01:45:46.640 New bomb threats at polling sites in Pennsylvania. Yay. 01:45:50.500 --> 01:45:54.300 Well, one thing I think I can say at this point is I kept saying, 01:45:54.500 --> 01:45:58.600 don't be surprised by anything in the range from Harris by 100 to Trump by 86. 01:45:59.200 --> 01:46:00.980 I think we're going to be in that range. 01:46:02.300 --> 01:46:05.400 We're not going outside of the range in either direction, I don't think. 01:46:05.640 --> 01:46:07.300 Well, that's for certain, Sam. 01:46:09.080 --> 01:46:12.620 Well, I don't know. Trump could still surprise in Virginia or something. 01:46:13.480 --> 01:46:14.860 No, it's not happening. 01:46:15.100 --> 01:46:16.800 I know. It's not happening. 01:46:17.400 --> 01:46:18.260 No, it's not happening. 01:46:19.660 --> 01:46:26.580 Both New York Times and DDHQ have their odds in the high 60s for Donald Trump right now. 01:46:27.400 --> 01:46:32.540 It's got to be super close, Sam. My gut, this is going to be. 01:46:33.400 --> 01:46:39.260 We're going to come down to one or more states that take days to come back. 01:46:39.680 --> 01:46:43.720 I think my bet is it's all going to come down to Pennsylvania, 01:46:43.720 --> 01:46:46.660 which is what it's been looking like for months. 01:46:47.280 --> 01:46:47.840 Yeah. 01:46:47.840 --> 01:46:54.300 Like the the assuming the polls was right view had this all coming down to pennsylvania, 01:46:54.960 --> 01:46:56.940 consistent yeah for a long consistent. 01:46:56.940 --> 01:46:59.340 Yeah and that's what it's. 01:46:59.340 --> 01:47:04.840 Now at the moment trump is actually leaving wisconsin which would break that but. 01:47:04.840 --> 01:47:08.580 Yeah that's very early he's still that. 01:47:08.580 --> 01:47:12.200 Doesn't make uh pete feel good as a pennsylvanian, 01:47:14.460 --> 01:47:21.540 time to lower the chair lower the desk and sit down I've been standing up till now, 01:47:24.400 --> 01:47:27.200 sorry Pete I already read your redacted message. 01:47:29.120 --> 01:47:35.200 Oh my my well at least one thing my. 01:47:35.200 --> 01:47:36.360 Gut basically. 01:47:36.360 --> 01:47:39.300 Was not wrong about how I felt coming into tonight. 01:47:39.300 --> 01:47:46.040 No, I had managed to get up a, a buildup of optimism over the last few days. 01:47:46.220 --> 01:47:52.480 And no, no, but my gut was just completely just, there is no, 01:47:52.700 --> 01:47:56.880 there is, I mean, Brandy, it's not going to be. 01:47:56.880 --> 01:48:02.700 You know, you can fill it in the upstairs sink. It's fine. I got pizza. 01:48:03.300 --> 01:48:09.120 Oh, there you go. I already, I'm not really hungry. Can I be honest? 01:48:09.960 --> 01:48:12.700 i ate a late lunch i'm. 01:48:12.700 --> 01:48:19.360 Not liking the needles prepare you know i had had as a topic the potential topic 01:48:19.360 --> 01:48:26.300 the last few weeks preparing for a trump second term and we never actually discussed it. 01:48:26.300 --> 01:48:31.160 I didn't want to talk about it i know i know what i i don't i don't want to 01:48:31.160 --> 01:48:34.380 talk about it i don't want to fucking talk about it i don't want to fucking 01:48:34.380 --> 01:48:37.960 talk about it i mean i i i I mean, I don't know. 01:48:39.380 --> 01:48:42.000 If and when it becomes real, then we'll talk about it. 01:48:43.430 --> 01:48:45.050 But I don't want to fucking talk about it. 01:48:45.530 --> 01:48:48.830 Pete says Lucy in the football. But yeah, 01:48:49.210 --> 01:48:55.470 it's feeling, well, I was going to say, it's feeling more like 2016 than 2020, 01:48:55.470 --> 01:49:01.050 but I'm trying to remember 2020 in those three to four days. 01:49:01.650 --> 01:49:08.010 It was that that night was terrible. We thought, you know, it took three days for that to lift. 01:49:08.110 --> 01:49:13.810 It was Friday before it was clear to anybody who was paying attention and Saturday 01:49:13.810 --> 01:49:16.430 until they made the calls on the network. 01:49:16.770 --> 01:49:18.370 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:49:19.110 --> 01:49:21.850 I wouldn't be surprised if we're waiting until Saturday again. 01:49:22.350 --> 01:49:23.690 And it could go either way. 01:49:24.490 --> 01:49:27.150 Yeah, Jonathan says it looked bad for a while in 2020. 01:49:27.390 --> 01:49:33.230 Yeah, it did look bad. He's not wrong. I mean, I remember it looked bad. 01:49:33.410 --> 01:49:37.330 It looked, I mean, basically, this is deja vu all over again to that. 01:49:39.030 --> 01:49:42.790 Pennsylvania is narrowing 26% in. It's 55-44 now. 01:49:43.930 --> 01:49:47.350 53-45 in Michigan with 13%. 01:49:48.330 --> 01:49:54.470 Wisconsin's up to 11, and Trump's still ahead of 54-45. But Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah. 01:49:55.210 --> 01:49:57.390 Yeah, I know. Milwaukee isn't reporting. Yeah. 01:49:58.490 --> 01:50:02.750 Hey, we're up to eight people watching. So if anybody hasn't said hi yet, 01:50:02.870 --> 01:50:05.090 say hi in the comments. Nice to have you. 01:50:05.130 --> 01:50:09.410 Hi, guys. Nice to have you here. Sorry, we don't have better news. 01:50:10.070 --> 01:50:13.070 We do have now maybe 40% of the. 01:50:13.070 --> 01:50:19.290 Voting I was hoping for better news but I well that probably I don't know how 01:50:19.290 --> 01:50:23.350 many could have been at the beginning of the stream I described as I came into 01:50:23.350 --> 01:50:28.010 this that the word I used to describe myself was completely I was glum I was 01:50:28.010 --> 01:50:30.850 not coming in optimistic, 01:50:32.210 --> 01:50:38.610 I had this terrible feeling I'm just you know so I mean, 01:50:39.530 --> 01:50:45.990 It's just, I'm not, I don't, I mean, I see a clear path based on where we are. 01:50:46.210 --> 01:50:47.490 It's just, you know, it's just. 01:50:50.250 --> 01:50:53.650 complicated i mean it's it's gonna be very tight. 01:50:53.650 --> 01:50:55.730 Ddhq is called north carolina. 01:50:55.730 --> 01:51:01.670 Yep they did i mean and ddhq has harris ahead now in wisconsin so, 01:51:05.950 --> 01:51:08.990 who daddy's doing god damn, 01:51:11.450 --> 01:51:15.030 arizona nevada and all these well arizona closed at nine, 01:51:15.690 --> 01:51:21.930 eastern but i guess they're not reporting anything yet interesting who isn't 01:51:21.930 --> 01:51:28.670 arizona oh right polls are closed in arizona but they haven't first results expected. 01:51:28.670 --> 01:51:35.090 Around 10 p.m eastern yeah most voters cast ballots by mail and counting typically 01:51:35.090 --> 01:51:39.090 takes days full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days, 01:51:42.150 --> 01:51:45.450 jonathan says i really thought women would save us it was 01:51:45.450 --> 01:51:48.950 real that was looking really big 01:51:48.950 --> 01:51:52.270 in the early vote numbers but same day 01:51:52.270 --> 01:51:55.370 maybe going the other way yeah or 01:51:55.370 --> 01:51:59.930 a lot of those women were voting trump well let 01:51:59.930 --> 01:52:02.890 me check in on the senate still no call 01:52:02.890 --> 01:52:08.070 in either the ohio race marina is still ahead to republican still no call in 01:52:08.070 --> 01:52:14.730 texas cruz is still ahead by about eight now eight percent now and marina's 01:52:14.730 --> 01:52:20.150 had by about three i keep looking at pennsylvania michigan wisconsin pennsylvania 01:52:20.150 --> 01:52:22.450 michigan wisconsin there's. 01:52:22.450 --> 01:52:23.830 Nothing there's too close to. 01:52:23.830 --> 01:52:31.770 I know i know and small numbers in still pa is up to 31 but still but still yeah, 01:52:33.410 --> 01:52:35.890 New York times still has all three at pure toss up. 01:52:38.270 --> 01:52:42.190 Now there's NBC is just doing Illinois. I had that a long time ago. 01:52:42.970 --> 01:52:44.450 Yeah. That, that, uh. 01:52:45.610 --> 01:52:50.950 I saw a tick tock earlier today about Florida, Yvonne, where this woman was 01:52:50.950 --> 01:52:54.910 like, you know, Florida could be a blue state. 01:52:55.130 --> 01:52:59.270 If you just stopped sending your old racists here to die. 01:53:00.810 --> 01:53:04.970 To. Okay. Okay, I did a quick count. 01:53:05.150 --> 01:53:05.330 Yeah. 01:53:05.530 --> 01:53:11.570 Okay. For Kamala to win, okay, this is what needs to happen right now. Okay. 01:53:12.230 --> 01:53:14.730 Just to get to 273. Okay. 01:53:15.830 --> 01:53:17.390 Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. 01:53:17.970 --> 01:53:21.650 Well, we'll start Maine. You know, okay, so. 01:53:21.770 --> 01:53:22.170 I'm assuming. 01:53:24.390 --> 01:53:31.450 But in the ones, it's that, but plus Nevada. I don't see how you get to because 01:53:31.450 --> 01:53:35.270 I went and I'm like if I go with you can. 01:53:35.270 --> 01:53:38.750 Get to a win without Nevada if you win every. 01:53:38.750 --> 01:53:39.310 Place she's. 01:53:39.310 --> 01:53:45.950 Ahead in plus Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania just barely mind you and she needs 01:53:45.950 --> 01:53:50.530 that Nebraska congressional district without the Nebraska congressional district you. 01:53:50.530 --> 01:53:55.470 Have you need the Nebraska congressional district that's right I'm saying one 01:53:55.470 --> 01:54:00.450 of the Nebraska congressional district What I add that up is Nebraska congressional district. 01:54:00.690 --> 01:54:04.550 Okay. So let me just show you what I, what I, Maine congressional district. Okay. 01:54:05.330 --> 01:54:09.310 Uh, and I'll look at a New York times map and where it's at versus just to look 01:54:09.310 --> 01:54:10.590 at one where it's called. Okay. 01:54:11.130 --> 01:54:19.710 They got 99, 178 main, the two plus the one, one separate congressional district, New Hampshire. 01:54:20.070 --> 01:54:23.350 Okay. All right. Which that's, that's not called, but that should be. 01:54:23.670 --> 01:54:25.070 You know, DDSQ called it. 01:54:25.210 --> 01:54:28.850 Nebraska too. Yeah, DDSU called it, but the New York Times hadn't. 01:54:28.850 --> 01:54:32.190 So I was just doing the math based on their account. 01:54:32.810 --> 01:54:37.750 Nebraska, too, which that should be, that's leaning that, okay? Yeah. 01:54:39.060 --> 01:54:45.280 Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, okay? Colorado, New Mexico, okay? 01:54:45.820 --> 01:54:50.600 California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Nevada. 01:54:50.960 --> 01:54:56.820 That gets you to 273. It's not impossible, based on where the numbers are right 01:54:56.820 --> 01:55:00.620 now, but it's nerve-wracking, as all fucking can be. 01:55:01.600 --> 01:55:07.940 And I'm looking at that moves, the Washington Post county moves map. 01:55:07.940 --> 01:55:09.040 And it's like. 01:55:09.040 --> 01:55:11.800 The entire southeast is red. 01:55:11.800 --> 01:55:17.420 Oh yeah oh yeah yeah yeah the entire southeast went red as all can be well actually 01:55:17.420 --> 01:55:22.860 there's some there's some caveats north carolina north carolina actually didn't 01:55:22.860 --> 01:55:27.640 okay well if you're looking at well no look look there's a big hole in the middle but. 01:55:27.640 --> 01:55:29.460 There's lots of red around the edges of north carolina. 01:55:29.460 --> 01:55:33.040 Yeah but but they're but but those are small it's it's not it's not like what 01:55:33.040 --> 01:55:38.440 you're seeing in in say you know tennessee no okay no The shifts in North Carolina 01:55:38.440 --> 01:55:40.980 have been more minor, okay, is what I'm saying. 01:55:41.540 --> 01:55:45.680 Georgia's got some deep blue moves in the big population centers and got red 01:55:45.680 --> 01:55:46.840 moves in the rest of the state. 01:55:47.600 --> 01:55:53.400 Ohio, as the night progressed, less blue arrows, but there's still a lot of 01:55:53.400 --> 01:55:54.860 blue with some red arrows. 01:55:55.580 --> 01:55:57.140 Pennsylvania is mixed. 01:55:58.860 --> 01:56:01.900 Definitely a redder Texas that you're seeing in this map. 01:56:03.520 --> 01:56:10.200 it's i mean new york is bluer pennsylvania seems to be looking bluer oh we got 01:56:10.200 --> 01:56:11.680 from the arrows that are coming in got. 01:56:11.680 --> 01:56:13.460 A ddhq call for colorado. 01:56:13.460 --> 01:56:19.380 Okay well not a surprise not not another not shocking call, 01:56:21.000 --> 01:56:30.920 experts to figure that one out bottom line is that the result is as nail-bitingly as the polls, 01:56:32.420 --> 01:56:37.460 showed which some minor exceptions in some states where they didn't get it exactly 01:56:37.460 --> 01:56:39.460 right yeah that's uh yeah. 01:56:39.460 --> 01:56:48.480 With yeah with the same rough breakdown of where the states were with Wisconsin, 01:56:48.840 --> 01:56:51.760 Michigan, and Pennsylvania being right on the line very close. 01:56:51.900 --> 01:56:56.060 In my blog post earlier today, I said both of those I thought were true toss-ups. 01:56:56.160 --> 01:57:00.280 If the polls were roughly right, all three of those were true toss-ups, 01:57:00.280 --> 01:57:04.540 and then the rest of the seven were probably going to Trump, 01:57:04.580 --> 01:57:06.180 and that's what we're seeing right now. 01:57:09.160 --> 01:57:09.680 Yeah. 01:57:12.100 --> 01:57:17.080 That scenario... I don't know if you could hear rachel maddow behind me but 01:57:17.080 --> 01:57:22.720 now she just went over the scenario we just said trump wins georgia north carolina 01:57:22.720 --> 01:57:29.080 arizona nevada but and all the rest of the states go as expected, 01:57:30.200 --> 01:57:36.620 but harris wins pennsylvania michigan wisconsin that's a 270 to 268 win. 01:57:36.620 --> 01:57:40.400 Oh my god jesus christ, 01:57:42.820 --> 01:57:43.460 by the way. 01:57:43.640 --> 01:57:49.000 Even the assuming the assuming Nebraska, if she loses that Nebraska congressional 01:57:49.000 --> 01:57:52.900 district, it turns into 269-269 and goes into the House. 01:57:53.380 --> 01:57:59.480 Well, right now, by the way, the 43% of the vote in Kamala is overwhelmingly ahead on the basket too. 01:57:59.700 --> 01:58:00.140 Yeah, I know. 01:58:00.320 --> 01:58:00.720 Overwhelming. 01:58:00.720 --> 01:58:00.960 I know. 01:58:01.160 --> 01:58:05.320 So it's not, that's, yeah, so that's, that's, that's that seems to be a given. 01:58:05.560 --> 01:58:06.940 Okay, she's going to get that one. 01:58:07.440 --> 01:58:08.960 Hasn't been called yet, but yes. 01:58:09.400 --> 01:58:13.160 Hasn't been called yet but yeah but that but that looks like a gift okay that's 01:58:13.160 --> 01:58:18.360 that's and main district one as well so yeah those look like a gift and. 01:58:18.360 --> 01:58:19.780 Main two is expected to go to trump. 01:58:19.780 --> 01:58:23.500 Yeah exactly yeah and. 01:58:23.500 --> 01:58:29.540 Of course given what the rest of the map is looking at like harris has to win 01:58:29.540 --> 01:58:31.240 all three of wisconsin michigan. 01:58:31.240 --> 01:58:34.320 Pennsylvania oh no no they she's got to there's no you lose any one of them 01:58:34.320 --> 01:58:40.240 it's over it's all it's all over yeah yeah yeah sayonara yeah yeah She has to win those three. 01:58:40.660 --> 01:58:49.120 Now, thankfully, smartly, I will say, they fucking invested the shit out of China Windows 3. 01:58:49.640 --> 01:58:55.420 Now, one, you could swap Wisconsin for Arizona, but she wasn't looking good 01:58:55.420 --> 01:58:58.040 in the polls in Arizona, so I'm not holding out a lot for that. 01:59:00.210 --> 01:59:02.030 Yeah, you need those three. You can't. 01:59:02.690 --> 01:59:06.670 John asks, how do you think Joe would be doing right now? 01:59:07.970 --> 01:59:09.890 I honestly think pretty much the same. 01:59:10.550 --> 01:59:16.370 I think he'd be doing worse. I think he might have been able to just barely 01:59:16.370 --> 01:59:20.470 pull it out in a world where Harris was doing much better than this. 01:59:20.630 --> 01:59:26.450 In the scenario we're seeing right now, I think this would be a clear Biden loss. 01:59:27.350 --> 01:59:31.030 I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. 01:59:31.490 --> 01:59:36.430 I think, well, if actually, I'll take that back. 01:59:36.970 --> 01:59:41.330 Given what we have learned from the polling we're looking at right now, 01:59:41.370 --> 01:59:45.730 and that it seems to have been pretty close to what, so far, 01:59:45.830 --> 01:59:48.490 it's coming in pretty close to expectation. 01:59:48.650 --> 01:59:48.810 Yeah. 01:59:48.950 --> 01:59:49.150 Okay? 01:59:49.530 --> 01:59:51.130 I mean, that's the one thing to say so far. 01:59:51.150 --> 01:59:56.030 It's very clear that Harris is performing better than how Biden would have performed. 01:59:56.390 --> 01:59:56.610 Yeah. 01:59:56.710 --> 02:00:07.470 Yes. So the reality is, yes, that Harris is definitely doing better than Biden would have done. Yes. 02:00:08.130 --> 02:00:12.310 Bruce is pointing out that Bitcoin is apparently reacting positively to the 02:00:12.310 --> 02:00:16.110 potential of Trump win. What are those noises? 02:00:16.250 --> 02:00:19.670 He's ahead right now. My son is playing with his ringtones. 02:00:19.830 --> 02:00:20.110 Okay. 02:00:22.990 --> 02:00:23.790 There you go. 02:00:25.910 --> 02:00:29.130 well i mean she is right now ahead in all three. 02:00:29.130 --> 02:00:36.750 And and i and i think the uh which we i predicted last week but i i the democrat 02:00:36.750 --> 02:00:41.190 position does not look like they're on track to keep the senate either. 02:00:41.190 --> 02:00:45.250 No no that's definitely a reality. 02:00:45.250 --> 02:00:49.770 House unclear so far I can't tell on the house. 02:00:49.850 --> 02:00:54.210 Yeah, that's just, we can't, we won't on the house. I mean, honestly, 02:00:54.330 --> 02:00:56.110 it's not looking like we're going to know about this tonight. 02:00:56.990 --> 02:01:02.430 We may narrow it down a little bit more. But like, I expect there'll probably 02:01:02.430 --> 02:01:04.870 be calls in Georgia and North Carolina before too long. 02:01:05.510 --> 02:01:08.610 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, North Carolina, I mean, DDHQ called it. 02:01:08.750 --> 02:01:12.490 I mean, you know, but like I said, but even if they call, yeah, 02:01:12.590 --> 02:01:15.930 but even if they call Georgia, okay, I mean, it comes down to, 02:01:16.170 --> 02:01:21.930 you know, But when we're talking that it comes down to Pennsylvania, 02:01:22.510 --> 02:01:24.290 Michigan, Wisconsin, 02:01:25.310 --> 02:01:25.730 Minnesota. 02:01:26.230 --> 02:01:30.030 I mean, and, you know, we need to know what happens in Arizona and Nevada as well. 02:01:31.230 --> 02:01:36.930 You know, in most scenarios, Nevada ends up not making a difference because it's so small there. 02:01:37.170 --> 02:01:40.450 You know, you can get scenarios where Nevada makes a difference, 02:01:40.610 --> 02:01:42.050 but most scenarios it doesn't. 02:01:42.050 --> 02:01:47.310 I mean harris is still leading in iowa but but only 12 percent of the vote. 02:01:47.310 --> 02:01:50.610 Yeah and still all almost all des moines. 02:01:50.610 --> 02:01:53.850 Yeah yeah okay. 02:01:53.850 --> 02:01:54.810 You know listen for a second, 02:01:57.270 --> 02:02:01.190 Huh? Yeah. What's, what's amazing by these swing maps to me. 02:02:01.390 --> 02:02:05.610 And, and of course this is because, you know, I'm in my Washington state liberal 02:02:05.610 --> 02:02:09.850 bubble or whatever, but looking at like, I just fundamentally, 02:02:10.090 --> 02:02:15.550 like I have, I understand where the core of Trump's support is, 02:02:15.730 --> 02:02:22.650 but I have a hard time understanding how he built more support over the last four years. 02:02:22.650 --> 02:02:26.510 you know like where who who 02:02:26.510 --> 02:02:33.370 was not for trump four years ago and is now i mean is it really all people who 02:02:33.370 --> 02:02:40.670 like just i don't know like are thinking like hey donald biden brought inflation 02:02:40.670 --> 02:02:44.910 and that's all i don't know could. 02:02:44.910 --> 02:02:51.350 Be i mean that's not an unreasonable uh not a not an unreasonable belief i mean 02:02:51.350 --> 02:02:56.670 you know a lot of people definitely believe that so yeah it's not. 02:02:56.670 --> 02:03:01.230 And meanwhile donald trump uh signed their stimmy checks yeah. 02:03:01.230 --> 02:03:03.250 Right exactly and you got that too. 02:03:04.090 --> 02:03:09.690 Bruce is saying bitcoin is close to its all-time high now bruce says it's covered 02:03:09.690 --> 02:03:15.250 lockdowns and mandates but that happened during trump that did not happen during maiden right. 02:03:15.250 --> 02:03:21.110 But i for whatever reason they still blame it on on on on the democrats though. 02:03:21.110 --> 02:03:27.230 And the u.s never had actual lockdowns right it was or actual mandates and even 02:03:27.230 --> 02:03:31.210 state by states there's not a single state in the united states that had anything 02:03:31.210 --> 02:03:32.850 close to what most of europe had. 02:03:32.850 --> 02:03:34.230 Yeah it's just yeah. 02:03:34.230 --> 02:03:35.770 Let alone like china so. 02:03:35.770 --> 02:03:40.190 Right right right so yeah so i i think it's just you know. 02:03:40.190 --> 02:03:47.170 But but i think that is a good point for some reason like even though most of 02:03:47.170 --> 02:03:53.430 the things that people complain about in terms of covid happened during the administration they. 02:03:53.430 --> 02:03:54.750 Still blame the democrats. 02:03:54.750 --> 02:03:55.930 Yep yeah. 02:03:58.520 --> 02:04:02.960 Georgia's pretty much stuck at 77%, which is why nobody's calling it. 02:04:03.480 --> 02:04:04.680 Yeah, it may well be. 02:04:04.880 --> 02:04:06.460 And that's what happened the last time. 02:04:06.460 --> 02:04:12.360 Yeah, they stopped for the night, and then they continued the next day. So, yes. 02:04:13.120 --> 02:04:14.380 DDHQ isn't calling it? 02:04:14.700 --> 02:04:18.220 And to answer Jonathan's question, do we need Minnesota? Yes, absolutely. 02:04:18.820 --> 02:04:20.300 Oh, we need Minnesota. Absolutely. 02:04:20.460 --> 02:04:20.580 Yeah. 02:04:20.900 --> 02:04:22.640 For some reason, we went Georgia. 02:04:23.360 --> 02:04:30.360 Minnesota is one that, yeah, the polling averages were up over 5% for Harris. 02:04:31.140 --> 02:04:35.080 And it's absolutely needed. Like, if you lose Minnesota, everything's falling in place. 02:04:35.480 --> 02:04:39.780 Yeah, if you lose Minnesota, you need to win Georgia or something like that to make up for it. 02:04:40.000 --> 02:04:43.960 Or Georgia or Arizona, for that matter. 02:04:44.620 --> 02:04:47.840 You know, one of those. You know, you can't just. 02:04:48.420 --> 02:04:52.060 But also, Minnesota is expected to be bluer than the blue wall. 02:04:52.060 --> 02:04:55.820 So if you're losing Minnesota, you're probably losing the blue wall and you're done. 02:04:56.780 --> 02:05:00.300 Trump's ahead in Wisconsin again by a very small number. 02:05:01.120 --> 02:05:02.920 Not on DDHQ yet. 02:05:03.260 --> 02:05:07.140 Let's see. New York Times has 35%. What does DDHQ have? 02:05:07.480 --> 02:05:08.360 How much they got? 02:05:08.460 --> 02:05:08.800 35. 02:05:09.020 --> 02:05:15.300 35? Yeah, they're a little bit behind. They got 30. Yeah. Let's see where they're reporting here. 02:05:15.960 --> 02:05:17.620 Still a lot of votes to come in. 02:05:18.260 --> 02:05:18.680 Which state? 02:05:19.840 --> 02:05:20.480 Oh, Minnesota. 02:05:21.080 --> 02:05:22.540 Oh, yeah, there are 2%. 02:05:23.140 --> 02:05:24.860 I mean, no, I'm sorry, Wisconsin, I meant. 02:05:25.380 --> 02:05:30.320 Oh, yeah. Bruce says, according to the House map he's looking at, 02:05:30.480 --> 02:05:32.320 the Republicans have gained one seat so far. 02:05:34.200 --> 02:05:35.520 Nevada, too early to call. 02:05:36.960 --> 02:05:38.600 Oh, oh, good news. 02:05:38.760 --> 02:05:39.040 Yes. 02:05:39.340 --> 02:05:39.780 Utah. 02:05:40.420 --> 02:05:42.040 Oh, Utah has been called. 02:05:42.760 --> 02:05:44.460 For Trump. Can you believe it? 02:05:44.520 --> 02:05:45.640 Oh, shocker. 02:05:46.540 --> 02:05:48.680 Trump is now slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. 02:05:49.480 --> 02:05:49.900 Oh, well. 02:05:50.480 --> 02:05:59.120 By 0.1%. Good news is that around the Philly area, a percentage of votes reported 02:05:59.120 --> 02:06:01.080 is actually pretty low right now. 02:06:01.380 --> 02:06:07.520 Like 30%. So below the state. 02:06:08.680 --> 02:06:11.980 Jonathan says in PA, the small places report faster. 02:06:12.600 --> 02:06:14.220 Yeah, that's what I figured. 02:06:15.160 --> 02:06:20.720 Oh, what did we? Something just changed. What changed? DDHQ calls Montana, 02:06:23.580 --> 02:06:29.480 You notice I don't have to say who for, but do we have a Montana Senate results yet? No. 02:06:31.160 --> 02:06:35.160 Bob wants to say, it says, I wonder how Lickman is feeling tonight. 02:06:35.160 --> 02:06:37.460 He's the one with the keys, the keys. 02:06:37.660 --> 02:06:39.640 He was really, really confident in the Harris one. 02:06:40.520 --> 02:06:44.480 Only one county in Arizona is reported. 02:06:45.540 --> 02:06:48.320 The Democrat did win the Senate race in Maryland. 02:06:49.440 --> 02:06:49.960 Yes. 02:06:52.080 --> 02:06:56.220 montana greg gina ford is re-elected as governor of montana. 02:06:56.220 --> 02:07:02.160 Oh bernie won re-election 64 to 31 well. 02:07:02.160 --> 02:07:04.100 Camel is back up in pennsylvania so. 02:07:04.100 --> 02:07:07.040 It's gonna be a fucking roller coaster, 02:07:07.780 --> 02:07:14.400 my stepmother kathy spent most of the month of october uh canvassing in near 02:07:14.400 --> 02:07:20.160 harrisburg knocking on doors getting out the vote is there even a display of 02:07:20.160 --> 02:07:24.780 the bipolar vote anywhere oh i haven't been looking but uh i. 02:07:24.780 --> 02:07:26.740 I i saw it somewhere. 02:07:26.740 --> 02:07:30.540 Like no one cares because it doesn't 1 million. 02:07:30.540 --> 02:07:36.460 727941 to 35 million 609 641. 02:07:36.460 --> 02:07:38.080 Trump has more. 02:07:38.080 --> 02:07:45.140 More of those well arizona's up to 36 And it's a dead tie. 02:07:45.400 --> 02:07:49.300 It is 40 votes apart. Fuck. 40 votes apart. 02:07:49.560 --> 02:07:50.160 Fuck. 02:07:50.980 --> 02:07:52.860 With Trump ahead by 40 votes. 02:07:56.320 --> 02:08:03.640 Fucking hell. Oh, for God's sake. Oh, for fuck. 02:08:06.050 --> 02:08:08.250 Oh, Jesus fucking Christ. 02:08:09.810 --> 02:08:14.370 Oh, wait, do I have Wyoming? Yeah, I already had Wyoming. 02:08:15.230 --> 02:08:19.470 Okay, so 37% of the vote in in Iowa. Okay. 02:08:19.810 --> 02:08:21.190 In Iowa? Yep, okay. 02:08:21.570 --> 02:08:22.030 Yeah. 02:08:22.570 --> 02:08:23.310 50-40. 02:08:24.690 --> 02:08:31.290 Yes, and the margin's really tiny. And I'm seeing that Cedar Rapids and some 02:08:31.290 --> 02:08:34.730 of the big blue counties haven't finished reporting yet. 02:08:34.730 --> 02:08:36.310 Well, mainly Cedar Rapids. 02:08:37.170 --> 02:08:40.810 No, you got, oh, it's this other one. Black Hawk County, Cedar Rapids. 02:08:42.470 --> 02:08:45.470 Jesus. Well, here's the one thing. 02:08:45.870 --> 02:08:50.330 The Iowa, obviously, being at where it's looking at, what it's showing is that 02:08:50.330 --> 02:08:53.890 what's happening in Iowa is only happening in Iowa. 02:08:54.810 --> 02:08:55.230 Yeah. 02:08:56.230 --> 02:09:01.430 Yeah. It's not, yeah. I mean, it wasn't, that was one of the things that I think 02:09:01.430 --> 02:09:05.530 in the last few days, was it a generalized thing? thing but no what it's looking 02:09:05.530 --> 02:09:07.850 at is what it's happening in iowa is only happening in i. 02:09:07.850 --> 02:09:15.250 Know by the way if you look at the swing map the blue ohio is now mostly red. 02:09:16.530 --> 02:09:21.810 Yeah it's like yeah it's it's got it's it's definitely tapered down yeah yeah 02:09:21.810 --> 02:09:28.530 right now the margin in ohio is now 56 43 for trump yeah ohio had fate had faked 02:09:28.530 --> 02:09:30.910 us before like this so Bob says. 02:09:30.910 --> 02:09:33.670 Cedar Rapid isn't quite as blue as Des Moines or Iowa City. 02:09:35.190 --> 02:09:39.030 Well, they got a low percentage of people reporting is the only thing about that. 02:09:39.950 --> 02:09:46.150 Let's see. New York Times just called Colorado, but DDHQ did that a while ago. Well, 02:09:48.150 --> 02:09:54.690 so New York Times has Trump up to a 77% chance of victory. and their range of 02:09:54.690 --> 02:10:00.330 estimates for the darker color here is all in the red now. 02:10:01.970 --> 02:10:03.150 And did... 02:10:05.880 --> 02:10:09.380 So New York Times' little needle for Pennsylvania, Michigan, 02:10:09.380 --> 02:10:13.820 and Wisconsin is all still at toss-up, but leaning slightly towards Trump in all three. 02:10:14.720 --> 02:10:18.280 And their needle right now in Arizona is leaning slightly. 02:10:18.720 --> 02:10:22.800 Well, okay, I don't, I'm looking at this, I don't know if that, 02:10:22.960 --> 02:10:27.940 when it's at toss, if there's anything to read from that. 02:10:27.940 --> 02:10:34.620 the one that's gray, I'm not sure, because I see that in Arizona, 02:10:35.040 --> 02:10:41.140 you see how it's lean R right now for Arizona, but it looks about the same. 02:10:41.280 --> 02:10:43.480 I can't tell if there's a fucking difference. 02:10:44.280 --> 02:10:45.560 I think there is. 02:10:45.760 --> 02:10:49.860 But yeah, I can't tell if there's really a difference. 02:10:51.520 --> 02:10:55.460 Margin in Wisconsin with 44% vote in is 200 votes. 02:10:55.460 --> 02:10:58.500 No i'm looking at 2000 over here right now. 02:10:58.500 --> 02:11:00.660 What new york new york. 02:11:00.660 --> 02:11:09.700 New york times 44 percent and yeah i'm looking at 732-690-730896 oh yep yep 02:11:09.700 --> 02:11:15.480 she's up in michigan she is behind pennsylvania right now and. 02:11:15.480 --> 02:11:17.680 Pennsylvania is up to 51 percent. 02:11:17.680 --> 02:11:22.180 Yeah but again Yeah. 02:11:22.420 --> 02:11:28.160 So Karnacki on MSNBC is going through various counties in Pennsylvania and showing 02:11:28.160 --> 02:11:36.040 basically Harris is a couple percent behind where Joe Biden was in a bunch of 02:11:36.040 --> 02:11:37.780 these counties, which would, 02:11:38.160 --> 02:11:43.940 since Biden just barely won Pennsylvania, if that's a consistent pattern across 02:11:43.940 --> 02:11:45.540 the board, that means Harris loses PA. 02:11:46.300 --> 02:11:48.720 And there is no path without PA at the moment. 02:11:48.720 --> 02:11:50.860 But there is no pants without PA. 02:11:52.380 --> 02:11:53.960 DGHQ puts Iowa to Trump. 02:11:54.920 --> 02:12:01.720 Yeah. Yeah. They called it. Yeah. Harris is ahead now in Arizona with 50% of 02:12:01.720 --> 02:12:03.960 the vote report, 51% of the vote reportings. 02:12:04.360 --> 02:12:07.520 Yeah. That would be nice if that held on. Yeah. 02:12:08.360 --> 02:12:08.840 I know. 02:12:10.840 --> 02:12:15.640 We're going to be waiting for vote by mail and crap like that over the next few days. 02:12:15.740 --> 02:12:18.480 Yeah. The problem is, of course, with Pennsylvania, with the margin where it 02:12:18.480 --> 02:12:20.160 is right now, it's just that it. 02:12:22.590 --> 02:12:26.630 So, so yeah, because they didn't start counting all those vote by mail. 02:12:26.750 --> 02:12:28.130 So it's what happened the last time too. 02:12:28.770 --> 02:12:32.130 That's why they, they, they got into the shouting match. 02:12:32.330 --> 02:12:36.690 But, but also vote by mail this time is not expected to be quite as disproportionate 02:12:36.690 --> 02:12:41.430 as it was before because Trump has been pushing remote options as well this time around. 02:12:42.330 --> 02:12:45.890 Wow. Question is, of course, if they did it, now one thing is it talking about 02:12:45.890 --> 02:12:49.270 it is he talked about it through both, both sides, you know, the mouth. 02:12:49.270 --> 02:12:53.350 Well, yeah, but at least according to the number of ballots ordered in their 02:12:53.350 --> 02:12:59.130 early vote numbers, the Republicans were leading Democrats in early vote, including mail. 02:12:59.630 --> 02:13:02.750 No no but but my thing is it just also depends on where you 02:13:02.750 --> 02:13:06.730 know where the okay the mail-in votes are or the the 02:13:06.730 --> 02:13:09.570 the amount but also where you know where they were ordered 02:13:09.570 --> 02:13:12.430 from yeah yeah what i'm saying i mean because when when you've got like 02:13:12.430 --> 02:13:16.590 montgomery county that's only 29 percent of the votes in right which is right 02:13:16.590 --> 02:13:22.510 i mean how much is that mail-in i mean which is that's you know it's very solidly 02:13:22.510 --> 02:13:29.750 blue i i don't know i don't know those are the key questions no What. 02:13:29.750 --> 02:13:29.790 Do you think? 02:13:37.880 --> 02:13:39.360 you wanted ulcers right, 02:13:41.720 --> 02:13:48.500 okay so jonathan updates only 11 of philadelphia counted when i was canvassing 02:13:48.500 --> 02:13:51.720 there they said there were about a hundred thousand registered dems in west 02:13:51.720 --> 02:13:57.980 philly that did not vote in the last election the canvassing there was very thorough i. 02:13:57.980 --> 02:14:02.700 Mean i think he's right that's why you know This is like still in a toss up 02:14:02.700 --> 02:14:04.960 because it's just so many of those votes are there. 02:14:05.120 --> 02:14:08.180 I mean, that's, that's the, that's the, that's the key. 02:14:09.340 --> 02:14:15.480 I mean, I don't know. Some other state got called for Harris by, yeah. They got her 112. 02:14:16.100 --> 02:14:17.920 Let me see over in New York. 02:14:18.720 --> 02:14:19.460 New York. 02:14:20.380 --> 02:14:22.700 Nah, DC and Colorado. 02:14:23.060 --> 02:14:24.980 Yeah, I had DC, but New York has been called too. 02:14:25.700 --> 02:14:26.140 Okay. 02:14:27.260 --> 02:14:33.420 Which again, not a surprise. you're not surprised so richard wants to know how 02:14:33.420 --> 02:14:35.880 is wisconsin looking too. 02:14:35.880 --> 02:14:36.500 Close to call. 02:14:36.500 --> 02:14:43.860 Too close to call but trump is leading with 48 of the votes in 49.7 to 48.8. 02:14:43.860 --> 02:14:50.980 I mean we're talking about 13 000 votes basically out of 1.5. 02:14:50.980 --> 02:14:54.860 Million so yeah but again it's very tight need wisconsin, 02:14:55.740 --> 02:15:02.300 any wisconsin i mean you could trade wisconsin for arizona but it seems unlikely 02:15:02.300 --> 02:15:08.440 any wisconsin oh there it goes bitcoin hits all-time high as u.s election results 02:15:08.440 --> 02:15:10.740 come in they they like donald, 02:15:12.820 --> 02:15:16.840 pete says every four years i ask myself why do i do this to myself. 02:15:19.400 --> 02:15:22.880 Yeah i don't blame you jesus christ. 02:15:22.880 --> 02:15:24.160 What do you got. 02:15:25.120 --> 02:15:28.360 New York Times has Michigan lean R right now. 02:15:29.120 --> 02:15:32.860 No path without Michigan. You need all three of those. 02:15:34.920 --> 02:15:40.980 And you know, if you get a situation where Harris pulls out Wisconsin and Pennsylvania 02:15:40.980 --> 02:15:44.200 but loses Michigan, everyone's going to say it's all about Gaza. 02:15:45.000 --> 02:15:48.440 Well, one thing is that Wayne County is only 1% reported. 02:15:49.980 --> 02:15:56.120 New York Times odds are up to 82% Trump. So DDHQ is down a little at 72. 02:15:57.080 --> 02:16:01.460 Georgia, pretty sure. The Gwinnett reported a large batch tonight. 02:16:01.460 --> 02:16:03.940 It's not enough to overcome Georgia. 02:16:04.320 --> 02:16:07.320 Yeah, they're at 91%, and it's a three-point margin. 02:16:07.540 --> 02:16:10.680 Yeah, and DDHQ called, DDHQ called Georgia. Now that Gwinnett came in, 02:16:10.780 --> 02:16:12.180 DDHQ called Georgia for Trump. 02:16:12.400 --> 02:16:16.680 Richard asks, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, PA, is all we are watching. 02:16:17.160 --> 02:16:20.460 Pretty much. Bob says no one else is even close to that. 02:16:21.620 --> 02:16:26.120 Yeah. And really, it's Wisconsin, Michigan, PA. Like... 02:16:27.140 --> 02:16:29.840 me, me, Paris is still. 02:16:30.040 --> 02:16:35.580 I mean, say you lost Michigan and you get got Arizona and Nevada. 02:16:37.480 --> 02:16:41.480 Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's I mean, that could be, but can't. 02:16:41.680 --> 02:16:46.880 You know, Wisconsin blue again reported by Jonathan. I don't see it yet on my update. 02:16:47.060 --> 02:16:49.220 But no, I do see on DDHQ. 02:16:50.120 --> 02:16:53.100 Yeah, but New York Times is ahead of DDHQ, though. 02:16:53.700 --> 02:17:00.820 There are New York Times says 50 ddhq and we got 48 back red yeah and trump 02:17:00.820 --> 02:17:02.780 is currently leading in ca as well, 02:17:03.580 --> 02:17:10.860 john says philly's still at 11 i don't know at the moment i'm it's the michigan 02:17:10.860 --> 02:17:14.920 lean czar that bugs me that means that new york times thinks that there are 02:17:14.920 --> 02:17:17.800 more red votes outstanding than blue, 02:17:19.920 --> 02:17:27.560 Harris did finally pull ahead in Virginia at 74% of the vote just fucking barely though. 02:17:27.560 --> 02:17:29.860 Yeah but there's still a lot of votes left. 02:17:31.740 --> 02:17:36.880 New York Times has Michigan back at toss up Arizona. 02:17:36.880 --> 02:17:38.840 Has a 4,000. 02:17:38.840 --> 02:17:41.060 Vote margin that's what I was about to say. 02:17:42.600 --> 02:17:45.280 Arizona is so retarded. 02:17:45.280 --> 02:17:48.860 Trump has taken the lead by 0.2% in Arizona. 02:17:49.140 --> 02:17:54.840 Sorry. Fucking God damn it. I used the damn R word. Slap me, Sam. 02:17:55.020 --> 02:17:56.060 Boom, boom, boom, boom. 02:17:56.880 --> 02:17:57.160 Sorry. 02:17:57.300 --> 02:18:03.260 With 53% of the vote in. And yeah, New York Times has it lean R based on where those votes are. 02:18:04.140 --> 02:18:07.980 Which is what I was saying in terms of like, don't count on Arizona to make 02:18:07.980 --> 02:18:09.180 up a loss in the blue wall. 02:18:10.180 --> 02:18:13.140 I don't know. You know, I'm looking at this. And once again, 02:18:13.400 --> 02:18:17.160 a lot of the votes, you know, Maricopa is the, is, is, you know, 02:18:17.340 --> 02:18:19.520 the, uh, elephant in the room there. 02:18:19.520 --> 02:18:20.480 It's only half in. 02:18:20.660 --> 02:18:25.240 It's, it's a, yeah, it's only half in. And the margin is 4,000 votes. 02:18:25.460 --> 02:18:29.280 I, it's just, you know, that's, yeah. 02:18:30.080 --> 02:18:34.840 Me, even Pima, you know, they, they're still, so that's, that's another one where. 02:18:36.060 --> 02:18:36.500 Nebraska. 02:18:37.640 --> 02:18:40.740 Thanks. Yeah. Thank you for, thank you for, you know. 02:18:40.740 --> 02:18:42.660 We had that a long time ago for the whole state. 02:18:42.820 --> 02:18:47.060 Yeah, fuck all of you. I mean, seriously. Thanks for nothing. 02:18:48.000 --> 02:18:49.740 AOC was re-elected handling. 02:18:52.100 --> 02:18:55.780 Philadelphia is now 56% reporting, by the way, John. 02:18:56.560 --> 02:18:57.140 Are they? 02:18:57.560 --> 02:19:00.580 Philadelphia County, 56% of votes in. 02:19:01.700 --> 02:19:05.500 Montgomery at 39. Bucks at 35. 02:19:06.140 --> 02:19:07.140 Philadelphia County. 02:19:07.400 --> 02:19:09.900 Philadelphia County at 56. Yeah. 02:19:13.180 --> 02:19:19.160 And Trump currently up by 3% in Pennsylvania, sorry, not Philly. 02:19:20.910 --> 02:19:28.690 I mean, the good news is that 56%, and given that Bucks and those that have 02:19:28.690 --> 02:19:32.110 reported only 11%, 39% and whatever, 02:19:32.330 --> 02:19:36.030 and the remainder in Philadelphia County, which is like basically half, 02:19:36.230 --> 02:19:38.170 that's why it's a toss-up because it's... 02:19:38.850 --> 02:19:45.110 New York Times up to 86% chance from three-hour lines in Nevada to vote still. 02:19:45.310 --> 02:19:51.030 They're holding polls open to clear the lines. so no don't don't expect reports 02:19:51.030 --> 02:19:54.630 of votes from nevada for hours again nevada. 02:19:54.630 --> 02:20:00.190 Dd dd hq has not really moved their estimate in any significant way. 02:20:00.190 --> 02:20:01.890 Their percent odd. 02:20:01.890 --> 02:20:05.690 Yeah they're still it's yeah they're still around 70 30 which is around where 02:20:05.690 --> 02:20:08.890 it started yeah there and. 02:20:08.890 --> 02:20:14.830 Reminder i was at 6436 on election graphs when it started. 02:20:15.570 --> 02:20:21.230 I at least feel justified that I wasn't as far off. I wish I had been far off. 02:20:21.990 --> 02:20:28.330 No, but you're good. I may not like the results, but the data says what the data is. 02:20:28.630 --> 02:20:34.010 Yeah. Margin in Arizona is down to 1,000 with 53% of votes in. 02:20:35.950 --> 02:20:37.190 With Trump ahead. 02:20:38.190 --> 02:20:41.050 Yeah, by 1,000 votes. i don't like. 02:20:41.050 --> 02:20:47.270 This is another one by the way and one of the reasons it feels like 2016 is 02:20:47.270 --> 02:20:51.550 it seems like in the last week trump had given up yeah. 02:20:51.550 --> 02:20:56.950 I know which he did yeah he did that and i mean he was shocked when he won. 02:20:56.950 --> 02:20:57.230 Yeah, 02:21:00.250 --> 02:21:06.030 and this this ties into the you know i i didn't include it in my last blog post 02:21:06.030 --> 02:21:09.910 on election graphs but I included it over and over and over in previous blog posts, 02:21:09.950 --> 02:21:18.850 how Biden first and then Harris was consistently underperforming both Biden 02:21:18.850 --> 02:21:21.030 and Clinton from the last two cycles. 02:21:21.850 --> 02:21:23.130 And that's what we're seeing. 02:21:27.210 --> 02:21:31.810 Yeah, Trump currently head in both Wisconsin and PA. If that holds up, all done. 02:21:32.150 --> 02:21:37.390 Oh, no, all three now. Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA all have Trump leads at the moment. 02:21:38.550 --> 02:21:42.850 They've got both. New York Times has both Wisconsin and Michigan as lean R right now. 02:21:43.410 --> 02:21:44.670 Yeah, I know. I saw. 02:21:45.670 --> 02:21:53.770 And so does DDHQ. Jonathan says it'll be a long fucking time before a party runs a woman again. 02:21:54.670 --> 02:21:55.990 I sure hope not. 02:21:55.990 --> 02:22:01.750 I don't know but it may be one of those things where the first one to win has 02:22:01.750 --> 02:22:05.270 to be a Republican yes great, 02:22:06.650 --> 02:22:10.970 oh we got Kansas did I already have Kansas no I didn't have Kansas, 02:22:11.970 --> 02:22:18.090 not a surprise of course yeah Karnacki keeps pointing out like numbers in various 02:22:18.090 --> 02:22:25.590 counties in like Michigan are looking like 2016 not like 2020 20 uh main one 02:22:25.590 --> 02:22:30.950 goes to as expected to uh harris there's. 02:22:30.950 --> 02:22:33.050 One of the things so michigan's only at 26. 02:22:33.050 --> 02:22:37.750 Bob's dropping out thanks bye bye bob bye. 02:22:37.750 --> 02:22:39.270 Bye bob good night. 02:22:39.270 --> 02:22:40.830 Good night it. 02:22:40.830 --> 02:22:46.570 Tightened up a little bit now with the last batch of votes in michigan dow futures 02:22:46.570 --> 02:22:56.090 jump 500 points russell 2000 futures rise two percent as traders spent trump winning that's the. 02:22:56.090 --> 02:22:59.890 You know the fact that the markets like 02:22:59.890 --> 02:23:03.630 like are happy about a republican potential 02:23:03.630 --> 02:23:06.770 win here even though the markets tend 02:23:06.770 --> 02:23:11.870 to do better under democrats is just weird although i saw someone saying that 02:23:11.870 --> 02:23:15.090 their expectation was the market would go up no matter what just because of 02:23:15.090 --> 02:23:20.310 the resolution of the uncertainty but new york times is getting close to 90% 02:23:20.310 --> 02:23:24.270 on their odds and DDHQ up to 78.5. 02:23:24.610 --> 02:23:27.910 Yeah. DDHQ number has been going up again. 02:23:28.310 --> 02:23:34.970 Well, and it's all cause it's cause you know, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are red right now. 02:23:35.710 --> 02:23:36.530 Yeah, I know. 02:23:37.310 --> 02:23:44.910 Well, so is Michigan. They're all red right now. Oh yeah. Bedtime for tea leaves as well. Good night. 02:23:45.390 --> 02:23:46.410 All right. Good night. 02:23:46.450 --> 02:23:46.870 Good night, Pete. 02:23:48.390 --> 02:23:51.470 John is dropping too, hoping for better news in the morning. 02:23:51.930 --> 02:23:54.070 Me too, but it's not looking good, John. 02:23:54.870 --> 02:24:01.010 Not looking good right now. The DTHQ forecast is basically 254, 284 right now. 02:24:02.190 --> 02:24:07.890 The New York Times a little bit more. Not what we were expecting, 02:24:07.990 --> 02:24:09.470 what we were hoping right now. 02:24:09.870 --> 02:24:15.110 Tell you what, the margin in Pennsylvania has tightened up a little bit. 02:24:15.630 --> 02:24:20.330 They're all very tight. I mean, Wisconsin's 30,000 votes. 02:24:21.450 --> 02:24:26.110 Michigan, 50,000 votes right now, with only 28% of the vote in, by the way, in Michigan. 02:24:26.670 --> 02:24:33.510 PA is, what, 100,000 votes with 67% of the vote in. 02:24:34.690 --> 02:24:38.590 Montgomery County is the one that, I mean, oh, Jesus Christ. 02:24:39.230 --> 02:24:43.130 Well, I mean, the New York Times still has Pennsylvania as a toss-up for a reason. 02:24:43.370 --> 02:24:47.170 I mean, they definitely believe that that's getting tighter. 02:24:47.290 --> 02:24:48.670 But the thing is. 02:24:48.970 --> 02:24:53.150 Michigan and Wisconsin are- The theme. 02:24:53.270 --> 02:24:57.750 Though, as Kornacki goes over his boards on all of these states is, 02:24:57.910 --> 02:25:02.670 over and over and over again, Harris is underperforming Biden in 2020. 02:25:03.590 --> 02:25:05.870 And Biden won by the skin of his teeth. 02:25:06.610 --> 02:25:14.490 I mean, technically, you could lose one of Michigan and Wisconsin and gain Arizona 02:25:14.490 --> 02:25:17.030 and Nevada, but that's tough. 02:25:17.530 --> 02:25:21.590 Yeah, but Arizona's not looking good. 02:25:23.070 --> 02:25:28.210 I mean, 53% of the vote in is 3,000 vote margin right now. Yeah. 02:25:29.630 --> 02:25:31.070 Not looking impossible. 02:25:31.270 --> 02:25:33.170 But they have it as lean R for a reason as well. 02:25:33.950 --> 02:25:34.130 Yeah. 02:25:35.930 --> 02:25:41.710 DDHQ gives Marino, Ohio for Senate, which looking at the numbers was like... 02:25:43.400 --> 02:25:49.200 Brown was never ahead. McCormick is also leading Casey in Pennsylvania for Senate as well. 02:25:50.020 --> 02:25:55.620 Oh, get the fuck out of here. Yeah, one of the dissonances, you remember talking about. 02:25:55.620 --> 02:26:02.780 The- Rodgers beating Slotkin in Michigan. Hovda beating Baldwin in Wisconsin. 02:26:03.340 --> 02:26:04.820 I'm looking at a DDHQ. 02:26:05.180 --> 02:26:07.720 I'm looking at New York Times for those. 02:26:08.720 --> 02:26:13.320 Baldwin is ahead. I'm looking at, they have both, they have the opposite. 02:26:13.400 --> 02:26:15.280 New York Times has 60%, 02:26:18.840 --> 02:26:22.100 in the Senate race for those votes. 02:26:23.140 --> 02:26:28.160 I mean, Pennsylvania is getting tighter. It's down to 90,000 votes right now, 02:26:28.240 --> 02:26:30.760 but the needle's got it to lean R now. 02:26:31.680 --> 02:26:32.660 Lean R for all three. 02:26:33.360 --> 02:26:37.580 Yeah, lean R for all three. Let me go make some more teeth. 02:26:38.120 --> 02:26:38.260 Yeah. 02:26:39.120 --> 02:26:40.720 Who is still on? 02:26:41.400 --> 02:26:46.440 I know. Say hi for whoever's still on. There are three people here. One of them's you. 02:26:46.600 --> 02:26:52.340 No, one of them's me, so only two. Ah, all right, Bruce. No. 02:26:53.740 --> 02:27:01.200 Well, yeah, now we're down to two. So that would be... Ah, okay, it's only Bruce. 02:27:01.400 --> 02:27:02.060 Bruce and us. 02:27:04.600 --> 02:27:05.900 I'm going to go make some tea. 02:27:07.220 --> 02:27:08.440 All right, see you in a few minutes. 02:27:08.480 --> 02:27:09.100 I'll be right back. 02:27:09.680 --> 02:27:17.780 Once you get back, I'll get something for me. California projected oh big shocker there. 02:27:20.800 --> 02:27:25.560 Idaho, too early to call in Washington. 02:27:25.740 --> 02:27:28.920 Well, Washington has one data dump today and then tomorrow. 02:27:29.680 --> 02:27:35.160 Oh, feel free to make your comments and questions, Bruce. I will probably keep going. 02:27:35.640 --> 02:27:39.100 I wouldn't be surprised if Yvonne drops at midnight Eastern, 02:27:39.100 --> 02:27:40.940 but I have nothing else to do. 02:27:41.060 --> 02:27:45.060 I plan to do this all night until there's nothing else useful. 02:27:45.800 --> 02:27:50.080 So for your questions, let's see. Is there anyone else who could have done better 02:27:50.080 --> 02:27:52.060 than Harris? Should they have had a brokered convention? 02:27:52.320 --> 02:27:58.640 I think even if there is somebody that theoretically could have done better than Harris, 02:27:58.660 --> 02:28:05.700 if like Biden had decided not to run two years ago and they'd had like an open battle, 02:28:05.700 --> 02:28:12.820 if they had done anyone else other than Harris in some sort of brokered convention, 02:28:12.820 --> 02:28:17.020 abbreviated primary or whatever, I think they would have ended up doing worse. 02:28:17.020 --> 02:28:18.740 because it would have been divisive. 02:28:19.240 --> 02:28:23.140 Harris was about as unifying as you could possibly get within the Democrats. 02:28:24.200 --> 02:28:31.200 You, of course, had the issue with some of the left wing sort of holding back 02:28:31.200 --> 02:28:35.320 because of Gaza, but you would have had that with any Democratic candidate who would have won. 02:28:35.500 --> 02:28:37.580 So that was not different. 02:28:38.320 --> 02:28:41.420 But yeah, I think Harris was their best bet. 02:28:42.420 --> 02:28:46.440 And yeah, I think if If you were going to go for anybody else, 02:28:46.520 --> 02:28:51.900 it would have had to have been in a scenario where Biden had announced way, 02:28:52.220 --> 02:28:56.480 way back that he wasn't going anywhere or sorry that he wasn't running. 02:28:56.480 --> 02:29:04.500 The thing about this is it's just the results, what they are showing is that it didn't matter. 02:29:04.700 --> 02:29:08.300 I don't think it really, there wasn't any candidate that Democrats could have 02:29:08.300 --> 02:29:11.300 put up that would have won. 02:29:11.680 --> 02:29:18.100 For whatever reason, a large percentage of this country wanted Trump to be president again. 02:29:18.620 --> 02:29:18.780 Yeah. 02:29:19.420 --> 02:29:26.460 I mean, they for some reason really truly believe that they were better. 02:29:26.480 --> 02:29:26.980 They. 02:29:26.980 --> 02:29:28.040 Were better off with trump. 02:29:28.040 --> 02:29:31.880 And as we were pointing out with that swing map like huge 02:29:31.880 --> 02:29:35.160 portions of the country redder than 02:29:35.160 --> 02:29:38.260 they were four years ago and specifically more 02:29:38.260 --> 02:29:43.680 trumpy than they were four years ago even the blue even in the blue states they've 02:29:43.680 --> 02:29:48.980 moved trumpier which is you know like and again from from the point of view 02:29:48.980 --> 02:29:54.340 of yvonne and i at least like this would be perfectly understandable if the 02:29:54.340 --> 02:29:55.620 nominee was Haley or somebody, 02:29:56.040 --> 02:29:59.180 but it's, it's completely baffling with Trump. 02:29:59.640 --> 02:30:03.800 I think it's just extremely baffling to me that in the middle of an economy 02:30:03.800 --> 02:30:08.860 that has actually recovered so much from where it was. 02:30:09.180 --> 02:30:10.180 Washington called, by the way. 02:30:12.400 --> 02:30:15.820 You know, an economy that improved vastly from where it was in Oregon too. 02:30:15.980 --> 02:30:16.260 I think. 02:30:16.820 --> 02:30:20.060 And, and people in people's incomes are up there. 02:30:20.160 --> 02:30:25.140 There's a lot of things that are not Oregon yet are positive that people still, 02:30:25.360 --> 02:30:33.840 for whatever reason felt that if they were that, that the Democrats didn't do anything for them. 02:30:34.380 --> 02:30:38.080 And I mean, the stock market is up. 02:30:38.880 --> 02:30:41.460 Inflation came down. Wages are up. 02:30:42.460 --> 02:30:48.980 I, you know, I don't, I don't know what the hell else you, you do. 02:30:50.320 --> 02:30:58.400 I, I, I don't know. And, and I mean, I mean, this guy is a convicted felon and 02:30:58.400 --> 02:31:02.380 they wanted the convicted felon. Oh, oh, Richard is back. Yeah. 02:31:02.980 --> 02:31:08.880 Yeah. Well, I don't know if you're hearing us, but Sam and I right now are very pessimistic. 02:31:08.880 --> 02:31:17.840 The 88 seems about right like honestly yeah the odds they're giving we we and and ddhq has it it takes. 02:31:17.840 --> 02:31:20.500 It it takes a miracle right now. 02:31:20.500 --> 02:31:22.340 I mean for. 02:31:22.340 --> 02:31:23.160 Harris to pull it out. 02:31:23.160 --> 02:31:29.720 Yeah she has to catch up in wisconsin wisconsin wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania 02:31:29.720 --> 02:31:32.530 they're all behind in all She's right under. 02:31:32.810 --> 02:31:37.770 She's, you know, behind in Pennsylvania by over a hundred thousand votes. 02:31:38.110 --> 02:31:46.350 I mean, she's behind in Michigan by 80,000 and she's behind in Wisconsin now by 50,000 votes. 02:31:48.050 --> 02:31:52.050 There is no, there is no path to get around that. 02:31:53.130 --> 02:31:57.550 You could, like I said, you could lose one and maybe there's a path around it, 02:31:57.690 --> 02:32:03.170 but not all three, not, not two. Definitely not all three. 02:32:03.330 --> 02:32:05.430 We got Maine, Maine for. 02:32:05.930 --> 02:32:07.610 By the way, they call California. 02:32:07.770 --> 02:32:10.610 Yeah. Yeah. That happened while you were gone. I mentioned it. 02:32:11.290 --> 02:32:13.350 No. Okay. I thought you said Washington State. 02:32:13.470 --> 02:32:16.370 Oh, I, I, that was after I mentioned the others earlier. 02:32:17.090 --> 02:32:20.030 and we got Maine all where's Maine all there 02:32:20.030 --> 02:32:23.090 it is and and Oregon 02:32:23.090 --> 02:32:29.750 as well okay still theoretically uncalled we could go from Harris by 68 to Trump 02:32:29.750 --> 02:32:36.690 by 86 but that involves catching up in several uncalled states okay talk for 02:32:36.690 --> 02:32:40.290 a minute Yvonne I'm gonna be back in just a minute so. 02:32:40.290 --> 02:32:44.090 I don't know because Richard came back in let me just do a recap of where the 02:32:44.090 --> 02:32:49.990 hell we are right now in the states that haven't been like officially like, like the, for example, 02:32:50.150 --> 02:32:55.330 Georgia decision desk called it already for, for Trump. New York times. 02:32:55.810 --> 02:32:59.390 Hasn't margin. The margin there is about a hundred thousand votes, 02:32:59.470 --> 02:33:01.010 but you got 93% of the vote in. 02:33:01.310 --> 02:33:04.730 I mean, highly unlikely you can overcome that right now at this point, 02:33:05.430 --> 02:33:07.290 North Carolina is about the same. 02:33:07.530 --> 02:33:13.430 Uh, you got 87% of the votes. Trump is up by about 100,000 votes Don't see a 02:33:13.430 --> 02:33:21.570 path there either at this point Pennsylvania's got 72% of the votes in and Trump is up by Jesus, 02:33:22.830 --> 02:33:25.290 now about 180,000 votes. 02:33:27.960 --> 02:33:33.800 There could be a way to make that up, but it's not looking good with 72%. 02:33:35.720 --> 02:33:41.140 Michigan, 90,000 vote difference right now. Trump ahead, 30% of the vote in. 02:33:41.600 --> 02:33:50.100 I mean, what the models are stating from this, that they've got them like all 02:33:50.100 --> 02:33:55.060 three at leaning Republican, is basically that from where the rest of the votes are coming, 02:33:55.680 --> 02:34:02.680 it's not expected to be able to make up that that gap right now you got 50 000 votes, 02:34:03.240 --> 02:34:10.600 wisconsin was 63 percent of the vote in but you know the one thing is that without 02:34:10.600 --> 02:34:16.420 pennsylvania forget about it i and and right now pennsylvania is 51 to 48 i 02:34:16.420 --> 02:34:19.580 mean it's not it's i mean unless, 02:34:21.160 --> 02:34:22.780 Pennsylvania somehow comes back. 02:34:23.740 --> 02:34:28.260 I mean, there is no path with Pennsylvania. You could theoretically do something 02:34:28.260 --> 02:34:34.200 losing one of Michigan or Wisconsin, but you can't lose both. 02:34:34.740 --> 02:34:42.740 Arizona right now, 4,000 vote gap, but still, I mean, you can't, 02:34:43.340 --> 02:34:45.200 yeah, that's not enough. 02:34:45.620 --> 02:34:53.940 You have that turns back. so so yeah so you know nevada's not in yet but none 02:34:53.940 --> 02:35:00.040 of that matters i mean if if if went with these three with with pennsylvania 02:35:00.040 --> 02:35:03.400 michigan and wisconsin it just doesn't really matter. 02:35:04.990 --> 02:35:08.950 So, I mean, oh, I. 02:35:09.990 --> 02:35:14.490 Sorry, I'm back, but I can't hear yet. Headphones on. 02:35:14.670 --> 02:35:17.450 Hello, hello. Hello, hello. 02:35:18.450 --> 02:35:23.230 Joe Biden, one year by eight points. And right now, we'll see in Lehigh County, 02:35:23.390 --> 02:35:26.350 the city of Ballantown is in the majority. 02:35:26.770 --> 02:35:31.830 I mean, the trouncing in Florida is just ridiculous. 02:35:33.430 --> 02:35:39.890 I mean, by the way, Texas is not even close. Texas is about the same. 02:35:40.290 --> 02:35:42.650 It's 14 points, like right now, for Texas. 02:35:43.330 --> 02:35:45.110 Not, not, can you hear me? 02:35:46.030 --> 02:35:51.310 Sam? No, he can't hear me. And he's scrambling over there with cables. 02:35:51.930 --> 02:35:54.210 Something else I would see tonight, this is, this is really, 02:35:54.350 --> 02:35:56.430 I keep pulling it out because I keep seeing it. 02:35:56.470 --> 02:36:01.270 I think it's important to know. and michigan and wisconsin or donald trump either 02:36:01.270 --> 02:36:04.790 there we go i can hear again hello yvonne. 02:36:05.690 --> 02:36:12.350 Okay so i was mentioning that right now by the way texas the current vote at 02:36:12.350 --> 02:36:18.270 81 percent reported uh trump is winning by 14 points so it's not not it's not 02:36:18.270 --> 02:36:22.410 even narrowly same as florida last time no not at all no. 02:36:22.410 --> 02:36:25.830 Like last yeah yeah it's widening. 02:36:25.830 --> 02:36:26.770 His margin not at all. 02:36:26.770 --> 02:36:29.170 2020 significantly like the narrative. 02:36:29.170 --> 02:36:30.530 Has been for a while that like. 02:36:30.530 --> 02:36:36.310 You know yeah texas is the white whale but it's getting closer each time no apparently not. 02:36:36.310 --> 02:36:45.970 No not not i mean basically it wound up looking the same as florida yeah and yeah georgia is, 02:36:47.380 --> 02:36:54.820 definitely very tight, but now North Carolina, the same, very tight, but now it's just. 02:36:54.920 --> 02:36:59.140 You know, the 63. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. 02:36:59.780 --> 02:37:04.440 At the moment, you know, we were talking about the Colt, the polls are pretty 02:37:04.440 --> 02:37:07.700 close to on. If anything, at this point, they underestimated Trump again. 02:37:08.360 --> 02:37:10.440 Yeah. Well, in certain places. 02:37:10.920 --> 02:37:13.820 Well, well, no, I mean, even in like, no. 02:37:13.980 --> 02:37:16.820 In Wisconsin and Michigan. Yeah. They, they, they had Wisconsin, 02:37:16.820 --> 02:37:18.020 michigan and pennsylvania. 02:37:18.020 --> 02:37:20.020 You know my average is that. 02:37:20.020 --> 02:37:24.740 Well pennsylvania was the average was slight uh trump slightly ahead but by 0.1. 02:37:24.740 --> 02:37:26.080 It looks like he's gonna win by 02:37:26.080 --> 02:37:30.700 three yeah i mean i mean that could still narrow that could work exactly. 02:37:30.700 --> 02:37:35.840 Yeah but but you know it's about where it was but the reality is in these three 02:37:35.840 --> 02:37:39.140 the margins are still within the margin you know when you look at. 02:37:39.140 --> 02:37:39.940 Yeah they're all. 02:37:39.940 --> 02:37:43.580 They call it they were they were like relatively in the range of. 02:37:43.580 --> 02:37:48.800 I mean we said the range of the air but texas and florida we said repeatedly 02:37:48.800 --> 02:37:55.260 that all of these seven states could easily go either way they're easily going to the trump side, 02:37:56.920 --> 02:38:03.680 but but yeah like the the ones that are off by a lot more yeah it will it'll 02:38:03.680 --> 02:38:07.920 take a while to get final results i mean at some point i'll go through and compare 02:38:07.920 --> 02:38:13.940 the final poll averages in every state to the actual vote results and fold them into, 02:38:14.360 --> 02:38:17.300 you know, my preparations for 2028. 02:38:17.680 --> 02:38:22.300 Honestly, I, that may take me a while. I don't know that I'll be doing that. 02:38:22.520 --> 02:38:26.660 By the way, Virginia is only Harris is ahead, but it's only by two points in Virginia. 02:38:26.860 --> 02:38:26.980 Yeah. 02:38:27.560 --> 02:38:31.740 Maryland in Virginia. Now Maryland is, she's up by 22 points. 02:38:31.900 --> 02:38:32.940 Which is about what was expected. 02:38:33.400 --> 02:38:37.040 New York. It's like, it's a blowout too. It's about 14 points. 02:38:37.960 --> 02:38:42.260 So is Massachusetts. you know, those are, 02:38:43.520 --> 02:38:47.400 In, in the ballpark, Colorado is also a blowout 55, 43. 02:38:47.820 --> 02:38:51.800 I'll point out, I'll point out too, assuming Trump wins this, 02:38:51.980 --> 02:38:55.600 which is what looks likely at this point, it's a legit win. 02:38:56.300 --> 02:39:01.160 You know, there's no like, oh my God, he cheated. No, it's a legit win. 02:39:01.960 --> 02:39:10.140 It's just that a, you know, a huge portion of the population of this country wants this. 02:39:11.120 --> 02:39:17.620 now he's still well actually like what are they updated uh and and harris will 02:39:17.620 --> 02:39:19.600 still probably i think he's going to. 02:39:19.600 --> 02:39:23.260 Still lose the way yeah he's still she's still looking like she's going to win the popular vote. 02:39:23.260 --> 02:39:25.160 Yeah when when when now it may 02:39:25.160 --> 02:39:28.420 take a while for us to get to that count because california is slow but. 02:39:28.420 --> 02:39:32.140 Yeah right but but it's looking like it because the margin right now is only 02:39:32.140 --> 02:39:38.640 five million votes yeah without california which is only three percent of the votes and so yeah. 02:39:38.640 --> 02:39:42.940 And california will take weeks to finish their count so right. 02:39:42.940 --> 02:39:50.640 But it's it's you know not just that if this is the case the republicans are going to keep. 02:39:50.640 --> 02:39:55.700 That yeah they're going to have a trifecta you'll have and i can only imagine 02:39:55.700 --> 02:39:58.980 the damage that's going to do we're gonna we're yeah, 02:40:00.160 --> 02:40:04.600 we'll undoubtedly have this conversation in more detail on the on the main show 02:40:04.600 --> 02:40:08.120 but like A Republican trifecta with Donald Trump, 02:40:08.320 --> 02:40:11.760 a Republican Senate, and not just any Republican Senate and House, 02:40:11.900 --> 02:40:17.900 but a MAGA Republican Senate and House is going to be absolutely disastrous. 02:40:18.700 --> 02:40:19.780 For the world. 02:40:20.340 --> 02:40:26.140 Yep. I saw one post on Mastodon about an hour ago saying, well, 02:40:26.840 --> 02:40:30.540 Europe, get ready to say hello to Putin. Yeah. 02:40:34.760 --> 02:40:38.140 Yeah, Richard says this is catastrophic for Ukraine. Yep. 02:40:38.720 --> 02:40:45.120 Oh, hell yeah. Oh, yeah. And by the way, the idiots in Michigan that decided 02:40:45.120 --> 02:40:49.400 that they voted against heirs because of Gaza. 02:40:50.100 --> 02:40:51.740 It's disastrous for Gaza. 02:40:52.200 --> 02:40:53.720 Yeah, just wait. 02:40:54.440 --> 02:41:00.980 I mean, they want to build resorts there, right? Tear it all down and build resorts. 02:41:01.600 --> 02:41:05.640 Yeah. I mean, right now, Michigan is like right now, the margins up to like 02:41:05.640 --> 02:41:07.640 about almost 100,000 votes. 02:41:08.580 --> 02:41:10.040 Yeah. And 6%. 02:41:11.340 --> 02:41:12.240 It's not even. 02:41:13.260 --> 02:41:17.140 Bruce mentions on Rogan, Trump said that he'd start negotiation with Putin before 02:41:17.140 --> 02:41:19.920 the inauguration, which is, of course, illegal. But who cares? 02:41:20.780 --> 02:41:22.760 Yeah. Nobody's going to prosecute him on anything. 02:41:23.880 --> 02:41:28.820 We may, you know, that that's that his sentencing in New York may even be delayed 02:41:28.820 --> 02:41:29.920 till after his presidency. 02:41:31.140 --> 02:41:36.320 now i'm not sure he makes it through his four years but that's a whole other story. 02:41:36.320 --> 02:41:39.100 That's a whole other story and. 02:41:39.100 --> 02:41:39.880 Then we get vance. 02:41:39.880 --> 02:41:46.980 Yeah great well i oh this is going to be a problem what. 02:41:46.980 --> 02:41:47.760 Are your batteries running. 02:41:47.760 --> 02:41:54.560 Um my yeah my headphone batteries while recording you cannot change speaker 02:41:54.560 --> 02:41:58.160 settings of course because you have are a stupid Good application. 02:41:59.900 --> 02:42:02.460 Oh, God, Joe. He's got to be dying. 02:42:03.260 --> 02:42:06.260 Yeah. And despite our conversation that he probably would have done worse, 02:42:06.360 --> 02:42:08.620 you know he's there thinking, I could have won this. 02:42:09.460 --> 02:42:12.520 Okay, you know what? You want to argue that one now? 02:42:14.080 --> 02:42:20.860 Because I hate to break it to you, but these numbers look worse than what was 02:42:20.860 --> 02:42:24.040 in the polls before the switch to Harris. 02:42:24.040 --> 02:42:24.500 Mm-hmm. 02:42:25.570 --> 02:42:27.630 Right now, these numbers look worse. 02:42:28.170 --> 02:42:32.710 They were pretty bad. Like, he was behind by more than 5%. 02:42:32.710 --> 02:42:33.550 These are worse. 02:42:34.230 --> 02:42:38.690 Well, and he's behind by 6%. Yeah, so it's about the same. 02:42:38.890 --> 02:42:39.470 These look worse. 02:42:39.470 --> 02:42:42.310 I have to bring up the comparisons one by one, but yeah. 02:42:43.190 --> 02:42:47.050 Like I said, it was never a good idea to change candidates in the middle of 02:42:47.050 --> 02:42:50.170 the fucking thing. And to fucking, like, get rid of the incumbency. 02:42:50.810 --> 02:42:54.530 I'm sorry. But you know what? I love Harris. 02:42:54.530 --> 02:42:58.810 You know, I voted for her in the last election, but I said vehemently since 02:42:58.810 --> 02:43:07.410 the beginning that this was suicidal and it's showing exactly that right now. So fucking stupid. 02:43:08.670 --> 02:43:14.470 So, of course, the the Harris campaign is saying, you know, they the absentee 02:43:14.470 --> 02:43:17.370 ballots that are coming going to come in over the next few days are going to 02:43:17.370 --> 02:43:20.070 turn things around. Blah, blah, blah. We'll see. We'll see. 02:43:20.070 --> 02:43:23.950 What is biden's to-do list probably going to try to do some executive actions 02:43:23.950 --> 02:43:27.690 on certain things i'm sure to try to start make things difficult in a certain 02:43:27.690 --> 02:43:31.370 way but i don't know who's going to stop trump right now basically when he's 02:43:31.370 --> 02:43:35.950 got the courts the house and the senate all on on his side to to do whatever 02:43:35.950 --> 02:43:38.870 the fuck he wants yeah there's no so um and. 02:43:38.870 --> 02:43:44.910 And and as we've said before none of the people who acted as guardrails in the 02:43:44.910 --> 02:43:46.190 trump first term will be there. 02:43:46.190 --> 02:43:47.430 Are there there. 02:43:47.430 --> 02:43:55.390 Will the entire staffing of the administration will be in 100% based on loyalty and loyalty only. 02:43:55.810 --> 02:44:00.750 And the willingness to say, yes, sir, I'll do whatever you want regardless. 02:44:01.630 --> 02:44:05.030 And, and the court will back him up on anything too. 02:44:05.190 --> 02:44:09.390 Like they made it clear through their immunity thing that there's no, 02:44:09.390 --> 02:44:12.510 they don't believe there's no guard, no guard. 02:44:12.710 --> 02:44:16.350 They believe the president, she should have close to absolute power. 02:44:16.550 --> 02:44:20.150 They don't believe that Congress should have the ability to write laws that 02:44:20.150 --> 02:44:23.770 restrict the president in how they manage their official duties. 02:44:24.760 --> 02:44:30.180 And not that anyone, you know, not that like Congress would fight them over 02:44:30.180 --> 02:44:32.760 if you've got a Republican trifecta as well. 02:44:33.600 --> 02:44:37.440 So, yeah, it's just going to be, you know, they're going to do whatever they 02:44:37.440 --> 02:44:40.720 want for four years, at least, maybe longer. 02:44:41.140 --> 02:44:44.260 Because part of what they will do is, 02:44:44.380 --> 02:44:49.480 and this is typical of the illiberal democracies like Orban and Hungary, 02:44:49.620 --> 02:44:55.100 which they've specifically said they want to model off of, is they dismantle 02:44:55.100 --> 02:45:00.900 institutions that would enable a robust opposition and make it harder and harder 02:45:00.900 --> 02:45:04.480 for anybody to go against the power. 02:45:04.620 --> 02:45:10.780 That's how these work. It's not an outright like quote unquote dictatorship. 02:45:11.300 --> 02:45:17.940 It's a, you break down all the institutions of the state so there are no protections 02:45:17.940 --> 02:45:21.860 against the people in power doing whatever the hell they want. 02:45:21.920 --> 02:45:25.160 no guardrails that's what 02:45:25.160 --> 02:45:29.240 the deep state is for and yeah 02:45:29.240 --> 02:45:32.760 it's going to be a rough four years you will 02:45:32.760 --> 02:45:38.540 see you'll probably also see a lot of state versus federal battles in blue states 02:45:38.540 --> 02:45:45.800 like this one like washington state where the blue states try to maintain some 02:45:45.800 --> 02:45:50.920 level of what they want and the federal government fights against it and well. 02:45:50.920 --> 02:45:51.720 Those fights are going to be. 02:45:51.720 --> 02:45:52.760 Horrific so. 02:45:52.760 --> 02:45:58.260 Yeah could biden force netanyahu wrap things up probably he could. 02:45:58.260 --> 02:46:02.960 No no he would have some no there are no. 02:46:02.960 --> 02:46:10.180 Actually there there are certain things where well okay hear me out here depends on you you kept. 02:46:10.180 --> 02:46:15.120 Talking about unchecked presidential power well biden has it right now yeah but. 02:46:15.120 --> 02:46:22.760 Okay exactly so you know what you could fuck hell hell i'll fucking like put 02:46:22.760 --> 02:46:26.440 an aircraft carrier outside tel aviv and fucking tell him i'm gonna start fucking 02:46:26.440 --> 02:46:28.920 bombing the shit out of your military unless you stop right. 02:46:28.920 --> 02:46:31.120 Now but it's not gonna happen you know it's not gonna happen. 02:46:31.120 --> 02:46:36.340 Well and i know biden is not gonna do it i'm saying that that could be i don't know i would. 02:46:36.340 --> 02:46:42.560 The the needle is now at 90 so the harris campaign is uh saying they're not 02:46:42.560 --> 02:46:44.420 conceding tonight there's too much outstanding. 02:46:44.760 --> 02:46:47.040 They're going to continue to wait to see how the votes come in. 02:46:48.220 --> 02:46:52.760 Harris's theory of the case in Pennsylvania is that they may be underperforming 02:46:52.760 --> 02:46:56.060 Biden elsewhere in the state, but they're overperforming in Philadelphia, 02:46:56.060 --> 02:46:58.640 and they're hoping that'll be enough to make up for it. 02:46:59.400 --> 02:47:02.400 I don't know. Seems like grasping at straws at this point. 02:47:03.200 --> 02:47:09.420 There's just not enough votes left. The margins right now are 200,000 votes. 02:47:10.140 --> 02:47:11.560 There's not enough votes left. 02:47:11.560 --> 02:47:15.820 So here's the quote from the Harris team. 02:47:17.490 --> 02:47:22.090 Let's see. I'll read you the whole memo. In Pennsylvania, we overperformed turnout 02:47:22.090 --> 02:47:26.550 expectations in Philadelphia and overperformed in our early vote expectations in Bucks County. 02:47:26.790 --> 02:47:30.430 We don't have election day results from Philadelphia, but we do know that we 02:47:30.430 --> 02:47:34.310 overperformed turnout expectations there and have seen especially high turnout 02:47:34.310 --> 02:47:37.010 in places with large non-white and student populations. 02:47:37.330 --> 02:47:40.490 We expect to see higher turnout in Philadelphia than in 2020. 02:47:40.950 --> 02:47:44.370 Outside of Philadelphia, we have limited data on turnout and support right now, 02:47:44.510 --> 02:47:46.670 but what we do have is tracking with our expectations. 02:47:47.130 --> 02:47:51.510 We are awaiting more results like everyone else and hope to get a closer read in the coming hours. 02:47:51.950 --> 02:47:55.130 In Michigan, we are awaiting a significant amount of votes to come in. 02:47:55.210 --> 02:47:58.090 The city of Detroit won't be reported out until roughly midnight, 02:47:58.090 --> 02:48:01.970 but we have seen strong turnout throughout early vote and election day there. 02:48:02.270 --> 02:48:05.750 Other results in Michigan are harder to parse since results are coming in more 02:48:05.750 --> 02:48:06.830 piecemeal than elsewhere. 02:48:07.930 --> 02:48:13.070 They're right about that. I'm looking at indefinitely. There's like Wayne County 02:48:13.070 --> 02:48:14.530 only reported 1% of the votes. 02:48:14.530 --> 02:48:18.010 In Wisconsin, we know there is a significant amount of vote remaining in Dade 02:48:18.010 --> 02:48:21.750 and Milwaukee counties, and we are seeing signs of strong performance in the 02:48:21.750 --> 02:48:23.710 Wow counties where we have partial data. 02:48:23.930 --> 02:48:29.010 We don't expect complete results from Wisconsin until tomorrow morning between 3 and 5 a.m. 02:48:29.810 --> 02:48:33.190 And then a summary of all this. While we continue to see data trickle in from 02:48:33.190 --> 02:48:37.570 the Sunbelt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral 02:48:37.570 --> 02:48:41.930 votes lies through the Blue Wall states, and we feel good about what we're seeing. 02:48:44.850 --> 02:48:48.850 Not neither of them look good. There's just, I just don't. 02:48:50.980 --> 02:48:56.320 There's a 200,000 vote gap in Pennsylvania. You might make it close. 02:48:56.620 --> 02:49:03.080 You're not going to get over that. In Michigan right now, it's 120,000 vote gap. 02:49:03.400 --> 02:49:09.740 I know it's only 36%, but that's also a massive gap. 02:49:10.300 --> 02:49:15.520 And in Wisconsin, it's a 70,000 vote gap with 70% of the vote in. 02:49:16.260 --> 02:49:23.320 I mean, it has the possibility that the New York Times is giving it right now. 02:49:23.540 --> 02:49:27.640 Yeah, that's about 10%. I think that's reasonable, given what we're seeing. 02:49:28.280 --> 02:49:30.880 Impossible, no. Likely, no. 02:49:31.160 --> 02:49:33.280 Not likely. 02:49:35.680 --> 02:49:39.660 I will report at least my unopposed wife won re-election. 02:49:40.480 --> 02:49:44.460 Wow. That's good news. It is. I'm not being facetious. 02:49:45.520 --> 02:49:48.380 I haven't actually checked the results since she was unopposed, 02:49:48.480 --> 02:49:54.220 but because there was no even registered write-in vote, even if there were write-in 02:49:54.220 --> 02:49:55.400 votes, they wouldn't be counted. 02:49:55.720 --> 02:50:03.800 So I just asked her, she's, she's at a, an election night party for her district. 02:50:03.940 --> 02:50:08.500 So I just asked her what the mood is there, given what everyone's seeing and 02:50:08.500 --> 02:50:10.440 how at least the local people were doing. 02:50:11.480 --> 02:50:18.660 I mean, literally right now, every swing state is looking like it's going to Trump. 02:50:18.680 --> 02:50:21.420 Yep. I think we said, yeah. 02:50:22.000 --> 02:50:22.860 I mean, every. 02:50:22.860 --> 02:50:28.800 Single— And by the way, going back to election graphs, if you looked at not 02:50:28.800 --> 02:50:34.660 the straight-up values, but my probabilistic thing, 02:50:34.880 --> 02:50:39.940 the median result was Trump by 86, which is what he would get if he won every swing state. 02:50:40.660 --> 02:50:42.900 I mean literally every swing state. 02:50:42.900 --> 02:50:49.220 Yes yeah the the only ones that i was reading is even competitive in my final 02:50:49.220 --> 02:50:54.440 blog post were wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania and she's behind all of those. 02:50:54.440 --> 02:50:56.180 She's behind on all three. 02:50:56.180 --> 02:51:01.440 I shouldn't say even competitive all seven were competitive they were all within 02:51:01.440 --> 02:51:02.840 the range of margin of error the. 02:51:02.840 --> 02:51:04.720 Tightest one but the tight those were the. 02:51:04.720 --> 02:51:09.540 Yeah like if if you looked at like where not just where the current number is 02:51:09.540 --> 02:51:13.540 but where they'd been bouncing around those were the only three that spent a 02:51:13.540 --> 02:51:18.980 significant amount of time on the blue side of the line our senator can't well 02:51:18.980 --> 02:51:21.180 won re-election that wasn't really a surprise, 02:51:22.260 --> 02:51:24.200 and barb and and. 02:51:24.200 --> 02:51:30.140 And and here's the crazy thing gallego is running far ahead of cary lake which 02:51:30.140 --> 02:51:31.660 by the way this is what the data was. 02:51:31.660 --> 02:51:33.040 Showing yeah it was like. 02:51:33.040 --> 02:51:40.540 I remember talking about how the hell you know but slotkin is losing against rogers in michigan, 02:51:42.600 --> 02:51:48.780 montana she is crushing tester right now very few of the votes in but still, 02:51:50.120 --> 02:51:51.200 Cormac is beating Casey. 02:51:51.540 --> 02:51:53.780 Yep. I mentioned that a while back and it hasn't changed. 02:51:54.740 --> 02:52:01.960 No. And Texas cruises cruising by 10 points. It's not that close. 02:52:02.600 --> 02:52:06.100 Yeah. No, it looked close for a little bit, but no. 02:52:06.420 --> 02:52:07.740 And Baldwin is losing too. 02:52:07.940 --> 02:52:11.900 I mentioned that a while ago too, and it's sticking. Yeah. Across the ball. 02:52:12.060 --> 02:52:13.740 It's just updating right now where it is. 02:52:13.980 --> 02:52:14.120 Yeah. Yeah. 02:52:14.260 --> 02:52:14.560 Yeah. 02:52:14.760 --> 02:52:18.980 No. Yeah. Like, so they're going to have a decent, 02:52:19.620 --> 02:52:23.620 i mean we all expected the most likely outcome was the republicans would take 02:52:23.620 --> 02:52:27.440 the senate because the democrats had to like be perfect across the board but 02:52:27.440 --> 02:52:30.900 they yeah they're picking up a decent number it's not just they're gonna take 02:52:30.900 --> 02:52:34.320 the senate they're gonna no they're gonna take it with a decent margins. 02:52:34.320 --> 02:52:37.400 Yeah yeah and looking. 02:52:37.400 --> 02:52:42.320 At the house district first battleground house flip of the night per ap the 02:52:42.320 --> 02:52:45.960 democrat one in new york's new york's 22nd. 02:52:45.960 --> 02:52:52.020 That's good i'm looking at the house and for whatever reason the house is not looking as bad. 02:52:52.020 --> 02:52:55.620 You think that yeah that would be a mute no. 02:52:55.620 --> 02:53:02.560 That would be yeah i'm looking at it's not looking as as as bad no whatever 02:53:02.560 --> 02:53:04.840 the fuck reason this fucking. 02:53:04.840 --> 02:53:07.840 Psychopathic goddamn election. 02:53:09.080 --> 02:53:16.460 Yeah it isn't actually looking as bad no oh it's fucking ridiculous how. 02:53:21.820 --> 02:53:26.320 AP finally called North Carolina long time after GDHQ did, 02:53:29.010 --> 02:53:32.490 Let's see, are there any states I'm missing in your little log? 02:53:32.790 --> 02:53:35.390 Let's see. No Hawaii yet, of course. 02:53:36.730 --> 02:53:43.070 Nebraska, too, isn't called by anybody. New Mexico, not called yet. 02:53:43.970 --> 02:53:45.970 Minnesota, not called yet. 02:53:46.330 --> 02:53:50.670 Not called, but yeah, she's way ahead. Yeah, she's taking Minnesota. 02:53:51.470 --> 02:53:54.890 Okay, the margin in Michigan is narrowing for whatever reason. 02:53:56.450 --> 02:54:00.090 And Michigan is only at 39. but and. 02:54:00.090 --> 02:54:01.910 Wisconsin is also narrowing too. 02:54:01.910 --> 02:54:03.870 Actually it's. 02:54:03.870 --> 02:54:04.910 Narrowed a little in. 02:54:04.910 --> 02:54:08.230 Pennsylvania but not i was about to say that pennsylvania has narrowed a little 02:54:08.230 --> 02:54:12.310 bit too but probably not enough but it's narrow enough. 02:54:12.310 --> 02:54:18.070 But it's narrowed but yeah i mean michigan has definitely narrowed a lot, 02:54:18.710 --> 02:54:26.170 now wisconsin is narrowed by about 20 30 000 votes too so well i mean i'm guessing 02:54:26.170 --> 02:54:30.390 there is a reason why because dvhq usually i mean we'll call them like. 02:54:30.390 --> 02:54:32.990 They're they're aggressive about i'm assuming. 02:54:32.990 --> 02:54:36.910 They're yeah i mean there's gotta be a reason they haven't called them yet. 02:54:36.910 --> 02:54:40.190 Well i i mean i i i 02:54:40.190 --> 02:54:46.890 presume it is just the straightforward there's a lot of mail-in ballots that 02:54:46.890 --> 02:54:50.910 are going to be called over the night counted over the next few days yeah and 02:54:50.910 --> 02:54:56.730 they're and one of the things that is an unknown at this point is the breakdown 02:54:56.730 --> 02:54:59.930 of like of those ballots yeah we who. 02:54:59.930 --> 02:55:00.670 The fuck knows. 02:55:00.670 --> 02:55:05.250 Because we don't know because the behavior is not the same as 2020 and is not 02:55:05.250 --> 02:55:11.130 the same as 2022 no so that's got to be the reason that's and that's what the 02:55:11.130 --> 02:55:17.010 harris campaign said uh they just new mexico for harris duh, 02:55:21.390 --> 02:55:25.470 For some reason, I was missing Louisiana and moving over. That was a long time 02:55:25.470 --> 02:55:28.610 ago. Okay, that's taken care of. 02:55:30.170 --> 02:55:33.010 Virginia for Harris, we already had that a long time ago. 02:55:33.450 --> 02:55:40.990 Okay, so this means the only solid places where their margins were over 10% 02:55:40.990 --> 02:55:43.870 and the averages that haven't been called yet are Hawaii, 02:55:43.890 --> 02:55:47.170 just because their polls are still open for who knows how many more hours, 02:55:47.170 --> 02:55:55.130 and nebraska cd1 which is undoubtedly just because they're lazy and haven't called it yet. 02:55:55.130 --> 02:55:56.570 I'm guessing simply like trump. 02:55:56.570 --> 02:55:57.490 Hasn't declared. 02:55:57.490 --> 02:55:59.890 Victory right now because he sees that that. 02:55:59.890 --> 02:56:02.930 Cd nebraska cd1 is actually really close 02:56:02.930 --> 02:56:06.210 right now oh fuck but 02:56:06.210 --> 02:56:09.070 not that it would make a difference to anything but it's actually 02:56:09.070 --> 02:56:12.170 this is one of the ones where i remember on their curmudgeon 02:56:12.170 --> 02:56:18.730 scored slack i said oh look at this 49 points might be a surprise harris win 02:56:18.730 --> 02:56:25.830 but trump is still ahead there just barely yeah and they have it rated as very 02:56:25.830 --> 02:56:31.590 likely r so i presume they have some knowledge of what parts i. 02:56:31.590 --> 02:56:37.370 Mean and even with more votes in an arizona it's still only a couple of thousand votes so. 02:56:37.370 --> 02:56:44.330 We're going to have another generation of left-leaning people who in four years 02:56:44.330 --> 02:56:48.050 are going to be like don't make the mistake i made in 2024, 02:56:50.290 --> 02:56:55.930 the people who wanted purity and couldn't possibly vote for harris well. 02:56:55.930 --> 02:57:00.470 But i look i i Look, on another point, 02:57:00.710 --> 02:57:05.830 and, you know, see when the vote totals are finally tallied up, 02:57:05.950 --> 02:57:11.170 but seeing how so many places turned redder, I mean…, 02:57:13.040 --> 02:57:17.800 Obviously, there's a lot more of the MAGA people. 02:57:18.060 --> 02:57:23.780 It's not just people that sat on the sidelines not looking like that. 02:57:23.940 --> 02:57:26.400 It's a big game. It's not just. 02:57:27.080 --> 02:57:27.560 Yeah. 02:57:27.780 --> 02:57:31.080 And like I said, even in the blue states, they've moved red. 02:57:31.620 --> 02:57:34.440 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 02:57:34.640 --> 02:57:39.900 I mean, I'm looking at the arrows start to show up for here in Washington and in California. 02:57:40.120 --> 02:57:41.940 Yeah, I can see. I can see. they're. 02:57:41.940 --> 02:57:43.000 All trending red. 02:57:43.000 --> 02:57:46.200 Yeah you know 02:57:46.200 --> 02:57:49.160 i was talking the other day talking to 02:57:49.160 --> 02:57:51.820 somebody saying what's wrong with the with the 02:57:51.820 --> 02:57:55.460 u.s look what's wrong with the u.s look we voted the germans 02:57:55.460 --> 02:57:58.700 had the biggest turnout of far-right 02:57:58.700 --> 02:58:03.580 candidates that had in a long time it's a worldwide the italians voted for maloney 02:58:03.580 --> 02:58:10.620 the french you know had even though you know they held on they had they had 02:58:10.620 --> 02:58:16.000 a very big turnout on that side as well the reality is that the uk, 02:58:16.700 --> 02:58:20.780 had to spend a significant period of damage 02:58:20.780 --> 02:58:24.280 you know we we spent four years with trump but 02:58:24.280 --> 02:58:29.960 the ruse spent like over a decade with the conservatives in in charge and it 02:58:29.960 --> 02:58:34.920 wasn't really until after the entire wholesale destruction from from brexit 02:58:34.920 --> 02:58:38.780 that it became painfully obvious to everybody that they had gotten completely 02:58:38.780 --> 02:58:41.260 screwed over and they finally tossed them out in mass, 02:58:41.280 --> 02:58:45.580 but it took them to reach rock bottom from that. 02:58:46.260 --> 02:58:53.220 I'll look at a look into our future. I just saw a post on Mastodon from Kim Schreitenberg. 02:58:53.440 --> 02:58:58.320 So, uh, going, going to what I was speaking about, about gains, 02:58:58.500 --> 02:59:02.220 even in blue areas, Trump made double digit gains in New York city, 02:59:02.700 --> 02:59:06.840 up 5% in Manhattan, up 10% in Queens, up 6% in Brooklyn. Uh, 02:59:07.730 --> 02:59:10.410 Sorry, what were you going to say? You looked like you saw something interesting. 02:59:11.070 --> 02:59:15.910 No, I saw something, but the decision desk has some bad data on their thing 02:59:15.910 --> 02:59:22.130 where it showed, like, Michigan that Harris is ahead, but they double counted something. 02:59:22.130 --> 02:59:25.230 Oh, yeah, that's clearly bullshit. I'm looking at it, too. 02:59:25.390 --> 02:59:27.130 No, I'm like, what? 02:59:27.650 --> 02:59:27.950 Yeah. 02:59:28.410 --> 02:59:29.250 And I'm like, no. 02:59:29.690 --> 02:59:32.770 It jumped to 60-30, Harris. No, no, no. 02:59:32.890 --> 02:59:35.850 Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. That's not true. 02:59:35.850 --> 02:59:40.250 You know, the other thing people are pointing out is once again, 02:59:41.250 --> 02:59:44.330 Trump, the gains with Latinos were real. 02:59:44.550 --> 02:59:49.050 Now you always point out differs by where they're from, but yeah, 02:59:49.550 --> 02:59:54.310 but they, you know, despite like the whole, oh, he burned a whole lot of bridges 02:59:54.310 --> 02:59:59.630 in that rally at MSG, apparently not as much as people liked him. 03:00:00.330 --> 03:00:02.150 Okay. DDHQ fixed it. 03:00:03.870 --> 03:00:06.090 Oh and their their minnesota numbers went to. 03:00:06.090 --> 03:00:11.090 Zero wait but but wait yeah but but wait but they're showing that the margin 03:00:11.090 --> 03:00:13.150 in michigan is down to only 30 000 votes. 03:00:13.150 --> 03:00:17.810 But they've only got 42 percent in new york times has 71 percent in. 03:00:17.810 --> 03:00:19.850 No for michigan sorry. 03:00:19.850 --> 03:00:23.070 Michigan yeah 43 percent at new york times too then. 03:00:23.070 --> 03:00:27.330 Yeah they're they're at the same percent but they're showing only a margin of 03:00:27.330 --> 03:00:28.570 30,000 votes in Michigan. 03:00:29.130 --> 03:00:37.070 Actually, they got 75% for Wisconsin. They're showing 100,000 vote margin in Wisconsin. 03:00:37.410 --> 03:00:41.290 But Michigan, I mean, am I reading this right? 03:00:41.730 --> 03:00:47.370 Yeah. They're showing only the margin narrowed to 20,000 votes in Michigan. 03:00:47.570 --> 03:00:47.670 Right. 03:00:48.710 --> 03:00:50.290 But Pennsylvania is not getting any tighter. 03:00:51.410 --> 03:00:56.350 Well, yeah. I mean, and it sounds like the Harris campaign isn't even expecting 03:00:56.350 --> 03:01:02.190 it to tonight they're like counting on mail ballots that aren't even going to get counted tonight, 03:01:02.890 --> 03:01:07.790 now even then like it seems like a really freaking tall order which is why we're 03:01:07.790 --> 03:01:13.470 like like new york times is down to nine percent now and i still think that 03:01:13.470 --> 03:01:17.690 sounds about right what's ddhq's number now uh. 03:01:17.690 --> 03:01:18.930 It's close to that. 03:01:21.070 --> 03:01:25.710 12%. Oh, and we got main two and main one called. 03:01:27.070 --> 03:01:30.210 Main both in this expected direction. 03:01:30.910 --> 03:01:36.790 Main two Oh, wait, I already had main one. Main two is called now. 03:01:37.530 --> 03:01:40.870 It's not like people voted for Jill Stein or something. I mean, 03:01:42.480 --> 03:01:49.940 Jill Stein, I'm looking at Wisconsin, 9,000 votes. Bobby Kennedy got 12. Chase Oliver got seven. 03:01:50.580 --> 03:01:53.560 Much smaller than the margin between the candidates right now. 03:01:54.160 --> 03:01:58.420 Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Michigan maybe. 03:01:59.220 --> 03:02:04.920 Like, Jill Stein's got 18,000. Bobby Kennedy's got 11,000. Chase Oliver's got 20,000. That may be. 03:02:05.220 --> 03:02:12.280 But not in Pennsylvania. It's like 200,000. Chase Oliver's got 27,000. Jill Stein got 27,000. 03:02:12.920 --> 03:02:15.360 I mean, not, not enough to really. 03:02:16.140 --> 03:02:21.080 Okay. There's an interesting one. Okay. So we couldn't get the abortion ban done. 03:02:22.160 --> 03:02:25.420 Apparently in Missouri that they voted to end the state's abortion ban. 03:02:25.840 --> 03:02:30.440 Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's just interesting. 03:02:30.640 --> 03:02:34.220 The, the, the swings in the last couple of weeks in confidence, 03:02:34.220 --> 03:02:39.400 like the reporting was two weeks ago, the Trump campaign was super, super confident. 03:02:40.140 --> 03:02:46.260 And the Harris campaign was shaky. One week ago, the Trump campaign was feeling 03:02:46.260 --> 03:02:50.620 despondent, and the Harris campaign was on top of the world. 03:02:50.840 --> 03:02:54.160 And now, obviously, it's the reverse again. Jeez. 03:02:55.360 --> 03:03:01.740 Anything. Well, Arizona's abortion measure also passed. So that's two. 03:03:02.300 --> 03:03:04.200 It's just your state that failed. 03:03:04.860 --> 03:03:09.760 Yeah. They did vote 57% for it, but the threshold was much higher. 03:03:10.160 --> 03:03:10.500 60%. 03:03:10.500 --> 03:03:14.740 Yeah. Yeah. But they did vote 57% for it. 03:03:15.220 --> 03:03:20.560 I mean, it's weird. I mean, you got 57% for Trump, but 57% for the fucking abortion 03:03:20.560 --> 03:03:21.800 measure, but still not enough. 03:03:22.580 --> 03:03:25.500 A Republican won the governor in New Hampshire. 03:03:26.120 --> 03:03:27.580 That's normal for New Hampshire. 03:03:28.280 --> 03:03:30.760 Yeah, I was remembering that. 03:03:31.040 --> 03:03:35.400 I mean, he's replacing Sununu or something, isn't he? Or was Sununu with that gap? 03:03:35.540 --> 03:03:38.580 Yeah, I think it was Sununu. Yeah, I think it was Sununu. 03:03:40.000 --> 03:03:46.740 coloradons voted uh also passed abortion rights this is not good my headphones 03:03:46.740 --> 03:03:48.640 are about to die i don't know what the hell well. 03:03:48.640 --> 03:03:50.880 It's about midnight are you gonna tap out. 03:03:50.880 --> 03:03:57.720 I i i can't sleep right now so i'll stay and stick around for a bit but i i 03:03:57.720 --> 03:04:00.980 gotta have to switch i don't know what the hell i'm gonna do just. 03:04:00.980 --> 03:04:03.640 Put it on speaker see if it's a bad echo. 03:04:03.640 --> 03:04:05.900 Okay well hang on okay Okay, well, let me try. 03:04:06.460 --> 03:04:08.060 You don't have any wired headphones around? 03:04:10.120 --> 03:04:13.440 Bub's recording has stopped due to media disconnect. 03:04:13.920 --> 03:04:14.820 Yeah, I know. 03:04:15.260 --> 03:04:16.140 Disconnect and reconnect. 03:04:16.660 --> 03:04:18.640 Yeah. Okay. 03:04:19.160 --> 03:04:19.600 Okay. 03:04:20.380 --> 03:04:24.060 Well, the live feed seems to have stopped. No, it's gone. 03:04:25.080 --> 03:04:27.860 Hopefully, did it say your recording uploaded? 03:04:28.300 --> 03:04:29.260 Yes, it did. 03:04:29.620 --> 03:04:29.820 Okay. 03:04:33.150 --> 03:04:36.550 The Harris margin right now in Virginia has gone to four. 03:04:36.990 --> 03:04:43.670 So, yeah, I mean, the projections were back up. Yeah, back up to what the. 03:04:44.090 --> 03:04:48.190 I mean, I expected just over five, but four is close. 03:04:48.350 --> 03:04:52.210 It's still 88%. And so, yeah, I mean, it's trending towards what, you know. 03:04:52.730 --> 03:04:52.950 Yeah. 03:04:53.750 --> 03:04:54.630 What was expected. 03:04:55.710 --> 03:04:57.230 Well, Harris wins Hawaii. 03:04:58.330 --> 03:05:01.030 Wow. Another shocker. 03:05:01.830 --> 03:05:03.990 I'm surprised their polls are already closed. 03:05:05.790 --> 03:05:09.650 You know, what time is it? Why right now? It's like five hours. 03:05:09.790 --> 03:05:11.310 Well, it's seven, right? 03:05:11.450 --> 03:05:18.870 Yeah. Okay. That means the only area with a greater than 10% margin in the polls 03:05:18.870 --> 03:05:22.370 that is yet uncalled is Nebraska one. 03:05:23.470 --> 03:05:29.290 I mean, Arizona is really like stupidly tight, but it doesn't matter. 03:05:29.930 --> 03:05:33.010 i mean without fucking and. 03:05:33.010 --> 03:05:36.930 People keep calling out the only swing state that has been called so far is 03:05:36.930 --> 03:05:42.470 actually north carolina but the trends everywhere else are like okay yeah it hasn't been. 03:05:42.470 --> 03:05:47.550 Called yet well decision desk called georgia and i trust their judgment on that 03:05:47.550 --> 03:05:49.670 yeah yeah i'm not you know i. 03:05:49.670 --> 03:05:50.430 Agree i agree. 03:05:50.430 --> 03:05:54.210 I i i trust their judgment it's so a the. 03:05:54.210 --> 03:05:57.610 Ap and the major networks haven't yet called georgia but. 03:05:57.610 --> 03:06:02.110 But it's it's it's it's it's done yeah it's done it's done, 03:06:02.890 --> 03:06:05.610 95 of the vote is in and the 03:06:05.610 --> 03:06:09.110 margin is 200 plus thousand votes now and 03:06:09.110 --> 03:06:14.770 i mean it's not not not happening pennsylvania might as well be done soon i 03:06:14.770 --> 03:06:20.450 mean i well but but again that goes back the fucking mail-in ballots i don't 03:06:20.450 --> 03:06:25.250 know how many of those there are and i and i'm guessing that DDHQ also has the 03:06:25.250 --> 03:06:27.470 same doubt, which is why they're not calling it either. 03:06:27.770 --> 03:06:29.990 Right. Because otherwise they would have called it like Georgia. 03:06:30.710 --> 03:06:30.830 Yep. 03:06:31.430 --> 03:06:35.630 So they've got, that's gotta be their thinking. There's no other reason they 03:06:35.630 --> 03:06:38.270 wouldn't have called it. I mean, they don't hold back. 03:06:39.090 --> 03:06:42.230 And Michigan is back to like 60,000 votes. 03:06:43.270 --> 03:06:46.930 And Wisconsin is like 80,000 votes. 03:06:47.050 --> 03:06:51.410 But is there anything special about mail-in ballots, complete unofficial results 03:06:51.410 --> 03:06:53.090 until the morning after the election? 03:06:53.570 --> 03:06:57.410 In some places, absentee ballots are counted as central facility reported in large batches. 03:06:57.790 --> 03:07:05.770 So that's also another thing with Wisconsin, where, shit, he had a lot of late ballots too. 03:07:06.270 --> 03:07:12.130 So I guess I have to, you know, I would be looking at it right now, 03:07:12.230 --> 03:07:14.770 and I would have been, like I said, with other states, fuck it, whatever. 03:07:14.990 --> 03:07:20.850 But I know that DDHQ, if they thought it was so in the bag, they would have 03:07:20.850 --> 03:07:23.770 pulled the trigger on it, and they haven't. So obviously they, 03:07:23.870 --> 03:07:25.990 and they do know something that we don't. 03:07:26.190 --> 03:07:26.890 Yes. Yes. 03:07:28.160 --> 03:07:33.940 So, oh, I just realized it's funny. I got it. Where am I? 03:07:35.560 --> 03:07:43.500 Why am I? Do you have the sound on or what? What is that? You have the TV sound over there. 03:07:43.600 --> 03:07:44.840 Yeah, that's TV sound over here. 03:07:44.980 --> 03:07:47.160 I'm like wondering where the fuck is that sound coming from? 03:07:47.380 --> 03:07:49.320 I don't have it that loud. I have it so I can. 03:07:49.420 --> 03:07:53.140 No, no, no. But that's the thing. So I was like wondering, do I have like something 03:07:53.140 --> 03:07:55.560 like very faint going on around here? 03:07:56.480 --> 03:08:03.440 Not that it's very much, but just to say, both New York Times and DDDHQ have 03:08:03.440 --> 03:08:08.360 moved slightly back on their needles from where they were a few minutes ago. 03:08:08.520 --> 03:08:09.720 Yeah, I'm seeing that. 03:08:10.760 --> 03:08:15.700 Slightly. Well, like, instead of a 10% chance. 03:08:15.760 --> 03:08:21.560 A 12% chance. Again, there's something they're seeing that we're not. Okay? 03:08:22.540 --> 03:08:25.160 I mean, there is something they are seeing that we're not. 03:08:28.340 --> 03:08:33.140 I mean and also with Arizona look most okay so, 03:08:34.160 --> 03:08:43.420 Arizona 7,000 vote margin most voters cast ballots by mail full tabulation takes 10 to 13 days so, 03:08:44.500 --> 03:08:47.480 that's you know up in the air. 03:08:47.480 --> 03:08:49.240 I don't even have that set up a plug. 03:08:49.240 --> 03:08:56.460 Nevada they haven't released anything so we don't know about that but And the 03:08:56.460 --> 03:09:03.860 thing is that if you look at, and I, and I, you see, let's see Georgia, for example, right? 03:09:04.260 --> 03:09:08.220 If you look at the needle, how Georgia is showing at New York times, 03:09:08.660 --> 03:09:12.580 look at Georgia, it's flat pinned to R. Okay. 03:09:12.840 --> 03:09:16.100 All right. Even though they haven't called it, it's flat pinned to R. All right. Okay. 03:09:16.440 --> 03:09:21.500 But look at the PA, Michigan and Wisconsin ones. They're just. Yeah. 03:09:21.560 --> 03:09:23.460 The margin is close to the same. 03:09:23.820 --> 03:09:26.620 Yeah. Yeah, they're very tiny. 03:09:27.000 --> 03:09:31.960 Well, presumably it's all about knowing which districts have yet to report. 03:09:32.240 --> 03:09:36.200 Yeah, no, and they know that and they know how many ballots are coming in and 03:09:36.200 --> 03:09:38.040 what the potential margin of those are. 03:09:38.260 --> 03:09:41.500 And so, which is why they can't call it. 03:09:42.800 --> 03:09:47.140 Because it's enough to move the needle, so to speak. Fuck. 03:09:48.020 --> 03:09:53.580 You know, at least it's not Florida that did, as everybody like on pins and 03:09:53.580 --> 03:09:56.080 needles. Although I wish it was. 03:09:57.160 --> 03:10:01.940 I mean, we really had a lot of MAGA people move into the state. 03:10:02.180 --> 03:10:07.440 I mean, it's just, they really came from other places in the last five years. 03:10:07.700 --> 03:10:10.420 I mean, it's just crazy. 03:10:11.140 --> 03:10:19.120 Well, the incumbent party candidate won the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election. Okay. 03:10:20.360 --> 03:10:29.220 The 39% of the vote. The second place came this candidate that he is for independence, 03:10:29.220 --> 03:10:33.440 but he did a coalition with another party that isn't for independence to try to beat them. 03:10:33.620 --> 03:10:38.160 But they came in second at 32%. The party that advocates the current status, 03:10:38.320 --> 03:10:43.840 they came in third at 21%. So, yeah, they got that. 03:10:44.080 --> 03:10:46.900 Now, I'm going to see something interesting. 03:10:47.280 --> 03:10:57.240 Apparently, they also pulled the people on a symbolic presidential vote to see what they voted for. 03:10:57.400 --> 03:11:00.180 I'm very curious to see what the vote was. Okay. 03:11:00.940 --> 03:11:07.940 Puerto Rico, the symbolic vote, 73% for Harris, 26% for Trump. 03:11:08.700 --> 03:11:13.520 By the way, alert just hit. The Republicans are officially called in enough 03:11:13.520 --> 03:11:14.520 states to take the Senate. 03:11:15.060 --> 03:11:16.780 Oh, well, I already said that. 03:11:17.020 --> 03:11:22.260 We already said this like an hour ago, but it's like the alert just came across the wire. 03:11:23.140 --> 03:11:24.280 Fucking slow people. 03:11:25.980 --> 03:11:32.040 Yeah. So, you know, this goes back to like when the Democrats had the trifecta 03:11:32.040 --> 03:11:35.260 a couple years back, they needed to be aggressive. 03:11:36.000 --> 03:11:42.100 They needed to like kill the filibuster, make states, expand the court, all that kind of stuff. 03:11:43.230 --> 03:11:48.230 Okay, Bruce has another question. Could COVID migrations have affected the political map? 03:11:48.550 --> 03:11:51.570 North Carolina, Georgia, more red because of a migration. 03:11:51.570 --> 03:11:55.570 I don't think so much Georgia and North Carolina. I mean, Georgia and North 03:11:55.570 --> 03:11:58.710 Carolina got tighter, I would say, but Florida for sure. 03:11:58.930 --> 03:12:04.590 There is just, you know, we've had so many incoming migrations that there is 03:12:04.590 --> 03:12:11.950 no other way that the state flipped that hard, you know, in that direction without 03:12:11.950 --> 03:12:13.490 those incoming migrations. 03:12:13.490 --> 03:12:19.850 Because we really, really had, during COVID, and with a lot of people, 03:12:20.030 --> 03:12:24.550 and I will add also a lot of people that decided to work remotely, 03:12:24.550 --> 03:12:28.430 that happened to be Republican-leaning, for the most part. 03:12:28.930 --> 03:12:32.650 You know, no state income taxes, no whatever, whatnot. 03:12:33.250 --> 03:12:38.630 You had all those things. And that, you know, basically a lot of people, 03:12:39.130 --> 03:12:43.250 hedge funds, other things, whatever, they moved here. Okay? 03:12:44.730 --> 03:12:51.090 And so, yeah, I mean, I do think that that definitely is something that had done that. 03:12:51.230 --> 03:12:59.850 But even though Georgia and North Carolina are a little bit tighter, not by that much. 03:13:01.870 --> 03:13:05.510 It's not the way that it's in Florida. 03:13:05.950 --> 03:13:10.390 I mean, Florida, the last time, the margin was five, six points. 03:13:10.570 --> 03:13:13.390 This is 13 points right now. 03:13:13.970 --> 03:13:16.970 This is, you know, it was six points the last time around. 03:13:17.450 --> 03:13:23.750 We went from two points with Hillary, six points in 2020 to 13. 03:13:24.030 --> 03:13:27.970 Now that's, that's, that's just, that's a vicious move. 03:13:28.130 --> 03:13:31.710 That's, you know, Georgia and North Carolina, you know, they, 03:13:31.930 --> 03:13:35.250 they moved maybe a point or two, but that's it. 03:13:35.450 --> 03:13:41.170 So, so no, they, they, I mean, they, you know, North Carolina Democrats have 03:13:41.170 --> 03:13:46.330 never won Georgia. Unfortunately, they won in 2020 once, but they hadn't won it before. 03:13:47.630 --> 03:13:58.950 Obama had won Florida in 2012, but it's gone from an Obama won in 08, Obama won in 2012, 03:13:59.530 --> 03:14:04.770 but Hillary lost by a narrow margin, and then that just accelerated into 2020 and 2024. 03:14:07.430 --> 03:14:12.810 So Bruce wants, Bruce also said North Carolina, Georgia close, but more red than 20. 03:14:13.270 --> 03:14:17.850 And Bruce wants to know, is the left coast more blue now than, 03:14:17.850 --> 03:14:20.330 than 20? Let's look at the map. 03:14:20.830 --> 03:14:25.410 No, all three West coast states got redder than 2020. 03:14:25.830 --> 03:14:30.350 I'll put the link back in the, in the chat for the, the thing, 03:14:30.430 --> 03:14:34.110 but there's practically no place in the country so far. 03:14:34.330 --> 03:14:36.410 No full state in the country. 03:14:36.410 --> 03:14:39.590 Yeah, I'm looking at the election shift map, and it's across the board. 03:14:39.690 --> 03:14:44.590 It's across the board, redder everywhere. I mean, they're scattered blue arrows, 03:14:44.790 --> 03:14:49.910 but almost every place has moved redder than it was in 2020. 03:14:51.030 --> 03:14:57.810 I mean, and this is the bottom line summary of the race is Harris underperformed 03:14:57.810 --> 03:15:00.630 Biden in 2020, and Biden barely won. 03:15:00.630 --> 03:15:05.610 And this is like, I keep going back to that tipping point chart comparison I 03:15:05.610 --> 03:15:10.590 had on election graphs over and over showing 2024 versus 2020 versus 2016. 03:15:10.990 --> 03:15:17.490 There was consistently that Donald Trump was doing better this time around than 03:15:17.490 --> 03:15:19.450 either of his two previous runs. 03:15:19.450 --> 03:15:27.570 And the only way to square that situation with the reality is, 03:15:27.750 --> 03:15:34.770 well, the only way to square that was a possible Harris win was the polling 03:15:34.770 --> 03:15:37.390 error at the end was different. 03:15:37.390 --> 03:15:41.590 Like the polling underestimated him and maybe this time it would underestimate 03:15:41.590 --> 03:15:43.970 her without a polling error. 03:15:44.350 --> 03:15:50.790 Nope. You know, it's that picture of the race where Harris was running behind 03:15:50.790 --> 03:15:56.870 both the paces of Clinton and of Biden was accurate, was accurate. 03:15:57.050 --> 03:16:03.630 Now, in terms of comparing to Biden, Biden was also before he dropped out way 03:16:03.630 --> 03:16:06.550 behind that his pace for four years ago. 03:16:06.550 --> 03:16:08.910 Right yeah and. 03:16:08.910 --> 03:16:12.190 People have said like look there are lots of headwinds like despite the guy 03:16:12.190 --> 03:16:18.450 with the keys there were a lot of headwinds in terms of you know the economic 03:16:18.450 --> 03:16:21.490 situation and some other stuff even though the economy was theoretically doing 03:16:21.490 --> 03:16:28.010 well like repeatedly people were people were saying over and over in polls they didn't feel like it. 03:16:28.010 --> 03:16:30.950 But look look look again facts don't matter look 03:16:30.950 --> 03:16:33.830 facts don't matter it's all about feeling it's it's it's it's all 03:16:33.830 --> 03:16:38.950 listen it's all about what what the messaging was that people people believed 03:16:38.950 --> 03:16:44.110 the message okay you know it's like i said when you look to the polls you you 03:16:44.110 --> 03:16:47.510 pull the people 70 percent of them say they're doing great better than ever 03:16:47.510 --> 03:16:53.070 and then those same people say that the country's doing like shit that means that that you know it, 03:16:54.060 --> 03:17:01.680 As has been shown by other, how do I say other propaganda, other people that 03:17:01.680 --> 03:17:07.860 have used propaganda widely against, you know, to win support and propaganda works. 03:17:08.000 --> 03:17:11.660 I mean, you, you just lie through your teeth and there's a lot of people that 03:17:11.660 --> 03:17:13.800 if you create the lie, that really fits the narrative. 03:17:14.020 --> 03:17:19.520 Well, and this is, this is one thing that specifically Trump broke the taboo against. 03:17:19.520 --> 03:17:23.680 I mean, like, it used to be that Republican, Democrat alike, 03:17:23.680 --> 03:17:31.000 there was a modicum of you had to base your arguments in truth in some way. 03:17:31.480 --> 03:17:32.080 Some way, yeah. 03:17:32.180 --> 03:17:34.820 Trump proved that that was completely unnecessary. 03:17:35.280 --> 03:17:35.720 Yep. 03:17:35.880 --> 03:17:39.380 You could say whatever the hell you wanted, repeat it over and over again, 03:17:39.480 --> 03:17:40.320 and people would believe it. 03:17:40.320 --> 03:17:45.820 And people would buy it. Yep. Yep, yep, yep. By the way, DDHQ has moved out the other way to 8%. 03:17:46.480 --> 03:17:47.740 Okay. Yep. 03:17:47.740 --> 03:17:53.480 But still haven't called but still haven't called any of them right um they've 03:17:53.480 --> 03:17:56.280 got rich rich rich says the economy. 03:17:56.280 --> 03:17:57.640 Is going to be a shit show by the way. 03:17:58.360 --> 03:18:03.880 Yeah i i i i do expect at some point that he is going to cause a significant 03:18:03.880 --> 03:18:07.400 recession because a lot of the things that he has proposed every economist is 03:18:07.400 --> 03:18:09.340 analyst analyze do you think he's actually. 03:18:09.340 --> 03:18:11.660 Going to do all the tariff stuff he said he was going to do. 03:18:12.340 --> 03:18:16.360 It's tough to tough to know with him i don't know Because part of. 03:18:16.360 --> 03:18:20.000 His theory of the case was a lot of that is under presidential power that he 03:18:20.000 --> 03:18:21.600 doesn't even need congressional authorization. 03:18:21.760 --> 03:18:23.900 Well, he already did. He already imposed tariffs. 03:18:24.060 --> 03:18:27.420 He did a bunch, right? Like he wants to do like much, much more. 03:18:28.680 --> 03:18:35.640 But, but look, as we have known before, you know, it's all about the grift. So I don't know. 03:18:36.000 --> 03:18:37.940 Oh, Nebraska too, officially called. 03:18:38.660 --> 03:18:41.860 So I don't know. Will he? I don't know. 03:18:42.380 --> 03:18:45.500 I mean, who knows with him what he's really going to do. 03:18:45.860 --> 03:18:53.960 So I see on New York times, Wisconsin at 78% of votes in, and it's a margin 03:18:53.960 --> 03:18:56.120 of about a hundred thousand votes. Okay. 03:18:56.780 --> 03:18:57.100 Yeah. 03:18:57.100 --> 03:19:04.140 I'm looking at DDHQ they've got a little bit more of the votes reported and 03:19:04.140 --> 03:19:06.900 they actually have about the same margin there are about 100,000 I'm just trying 03:19:06.900 --> 03:19:09.000 to compare what they are both showing, 03:19:10.260 --> 03:19:15.980 Michigan DDHQ has more votes in than New York Times they got 55% of the vote 03:19:15.980 --> 03:19:19.960 they're showing a margin of about 70,000 votes in Michigan okay, 03:19:21.960 --> 03:19:26.820 New York Times has 52% in they're now showing a margin of about, 03:19:29.200 --> 03:19:33.500 85,000. It's a little bit wider. Okay. The issues margins are narrower. 03:19:34.400 --> 03:19:39.560 Let's see. Pennsylvania, 87% of the votes in. Margin now is, 03:19:39.560 --> 03:19:41.640 it's narrowed down to 170,000. 03:19:42.040 --> 03:19:43.080 That's still a lot. 03:19:43.580 --> 03:19:49.500 That's still a lot. Still a lot. DDHQ has basically around the same number. 03:19:49.640 --> 03:19:54.540 84% in, 170,000 votes. 6 million counted. 03:19:56.780 --> 03:20:01.500 But again, neither of them have called it. 03:20:02.840 --> 03:20:08.020 I mean, I would expect, I mean, I see that, I mean, I mean, the issue obviously 03:20:08.020 --> 03:20:12.480 feels it's trending towards that, but this has got it at 8% chance, 03:20:12.600 --> 03:20:16.260 but obviously they don't feel comfortable with saying it's not. 03:20:16.260 --> 03:20:21.100 Yeah, I see I see someone on Mastodon saying, hey, I remember in 2020 going 03:20:21.100 --> 03:20:24.380 to bed with all things pointing towards Trump and Biden still won. 03:20:24.840 --> 03:20:30.420 But remind me, because I'm having trouble remembering, like it was looking not 03:20:30.420 --> 03:20:34.280 great for Biden at this time four years ago, but not this bad. 03:20:35.680 --> 03:20:38.540 I, I, I, I. 03:20:39.540 --> 03:20:43.980 It was looking bad. I just don't remember how exactly bad it looked. 03:20:44.600 --> 03:20:49.120 but it looked better because that 03:20:49.120 --> 03:20:52.760 night they had called arizona for him so i 03:20:52.760 --> 03:20:56.000 think that that definitely was uh 03:20:56.000 --> 03:21:03.160 what was was different and georgia was not called i mean i know most haven't 03:21:03.160 --> 03:21:07.220 called it but ddhq hadn't called it now they haven't called they they called 03:21:07.220 --> 03:21:10.820 it and i'm pretty sure that they're they're right i looked at the numbers i 03:21:10.820 --> 03:21:15.100 mean new york times hasn't called it but I mean, they got, I mean, Trump's got George. 03:21:15.380 --> 03:21:18.740 We got Nebraska one called finally by DDHQ. 03:21:18.960 --> 03:21:26.960 So this means we now have all of the states, all of the states and congressional 03:21:26.960 --> 03:21:30.440 districts with margins over 10% have now officially been called. 03:21:30.840 --> 03:21:34.280 What's left uncalled officially. 03:21:34.620 --> 03:21:37.800 Minnesota has not been called. Wisconsin has not been called. 03:21:37.800 --> 03:21:44.140 michigan pennsylvania georgia nevada arizona and alaska that's all that's left uncalled. 03:21:44.140 --> 03:21:50.340 The margin has narrowed to 100 you know somewhere around 150 000 votes 170 000 03:21:50.340 --> 03:21:51.900 votes depending on pennsylvania but it's not, 03:21:53.450 --> 03:21:56.690 but i'm looking at yeah mich 03:21:56.690 --> 03:21:59.890 the one michigan has i mean new york 03:21:59.890 --> 03:22:02.790 times has a lot wider a margin 03:22:02.790 --> 03:22:08.490 than than ddhq but they are behind ddhq in terms of how much vote they're they've 03:22:08.490 --> 03:22:13.350 tabulated they're only at 50 now they've moved up to 54 they were 52 now they 03:22:13.350 --> 03:22:21.570 moved up to 54 ddhq's at 56 yeah so bruce. 03:22:21.570 --> 03:22:26.170 Says gotta go thanks for having this thank you for joining us Bruce it's good to. 03:22:26.170 --> 03:22:28.610 Have you I think. 03:22:28.610 --> 03:22:34.350 That leaves you me and Richard thank you also Richard for joining us I am cuckoo too. 03:22:35.410 --> 03:22:36.610 Well look, 03:22:38.670 --> 03:22:47.990 Richard just said he's going crazy look I mean over what I mean I mean are you going crazy because, 03:22:48.610 --> 03:22:55.990 Trump won yeah there are very likely one maybe that's. 03:22:58.610 --> 03:23:02.090 Waiting on PA numbers that we're supposed to drop around midnight. 03:23:02.090 --> 03:23:15.750 Yeah well I I mean unfortunately I'm in my I even though there is a narrow very narrow, 03:23:17.230 --> 03:23:22.070 path to a victory perhaps less than 10%. 03:23:22.070 --> 03:23:25.330 I don't see it likely right now at this point. 03:23:25.550 --> 03:23:28.830 At this point, I am at the point that I am accepting. 03:23:29.270 --> 03:23:37.390 I have bargained into my acceptance of the fact the people of our nation have 03:23:37.390 --> 03:23:42.670 duly democratically decided that this is the country that they want. 03:23:43.450 --> 03:23:44.010 Yep. 03:23:45.130 --> 03:23:46.850 And so that's... 03:23:46.850 --> 03:23:49.510 So it's... It's... 03:23:49.850 --> 03:23:57.810 Not it's not by it's not a cheat it's not whatever it's not uh that's what people voted for. 03:23:57.810 --> 03:24:02.250 Stupid electoral college but that's the rules everyone was playing under. 03:24:02.250 --> 03:24:07.410 But like when it fucked the electoral college when i'm looking at that the majority 03:24:07.410 --> 03:24:12.610 of people in the states of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin yeah have decided 03:24:12.610 --> 03:24:17.210 that this is what they want and florida well florida Your neighbors. 03:24:17.730 --> 03:24:20.570 Yeah. Well, I'm saying those because... 03:24:21.210 --> 03:24:22.910 Because those are the ones that make the difference. Yeah. 03:24:23.410 --> 03:24:25.650 Those were the ones that really made the difference tonight. 03:24:26.010 --> 03:24:28.630 I mean, nobody expected Florida. I mean, it would have been a miracle. 03:24:30.990 --> 03:24:37.350 But that... It's not even my neighbors directly. You know? I saw in our county, Harris won. 03:24:37.710 --> 03:24:38.190 Right. 03:24:40.110 --> 03:24:46.090 So Richard says, I work alongside many mega folks, so I have been apprehensive for some time. 03:24:46.290 --> 03:24:51.750 The people of our nation apparently do not listen to anything he says. He doesn't mean that. 03:24:52.090 --> 03:24:59.910 Yeah. Well, it's, it's, it's like I mentioned what happened to the British leaving 03:24:59.910 --> 03:25:04.490 the Tories running their country for so long until they completely jammed it into the ground. 03:25:05.690 --> 03:25:12.090 And unfortunately, the people in this country, I mean, they let W did it, do it. 03:25:12.630 --> 03:25:16.650 Then the Republicans decided that their way out of it was just to lie about 03:25:16.650 --> 03:25:20.770 who did it, then blame Obama for not fixing it fast enough. 03:25:22.910 --> 03:25:26.690 Richard says, I'm literally the bottom of the barrel, Puerto Rican and Haitian. 03:25:26.690 --> 03:25:30.570 Yeah well i know but i 03:25:30.570 --> 03:25:34.370 mean we are i mean they they like 03:25:34.370 --> 03:25:37.250 like like sam was saying we are 03:25:37.250 --> 03:25:44.510 with a candidate that has succeeded in convincing all of these people through 03:25:44.510 --> 03:25:52.790 a barrel load of full-throated lies and and you know he's figured out that propaganda 03:25:52.790 --> 03:25:54.450 that works, and they'll believe it. 03:25:54.830 --> 03:25:58.110 If he repeats it often enough with conviction, they'll believe it. 03:25:58.190 --> 03:26:05.910 Well, and as Richard said, also key to this is A, well, a few more keys to this. 03:26:07.010 --> 03:26:10.530 A, they don't often believe it. When he says the worst things, 03:26:10.690 --> 03:26:12.850 they still say, yeah, he says that. 03:26:12.910 --> 03:26:16.270 That's just him talking. He doesn't mean that. He's not going to do that for real. 03:26:16.270 --> 03:26:19.670 and whereas we tend to take him deadly 03:26:19.670 --> 03:26:22.810 seriously as in he 03:26:22.810 --> 03:26:25.730 may not he may or may not succeed and do it but he wants 03:26:25.730 --> 03:26:28.870 to do it he was stopped so many times 03:26:28.870 --> 03:26:32.070 from doing worse things in his first administration and those 03:26:32.070 --> 03:26:38.150 guardrails are all gone and second a lot of them haven't heard the stuff in 03:26:38.150 --> 03:26:45.450 the first place no you know that because their media ecosystem completely insulates 03:26:45.450 --> 03:26:51.570 them from the worst of what he does and says. So they haven't even heard it. 03:26:52.250 --> 03:26:55.130 They just think, you know, he's the one standing up for us. 03:26:55.550 --> 03:27:01.170 He says the things we think, the racist things we think, the sexist things we think. But yeah. 03:27:02.230 --> 03:27:05.590 No, transphobic things we think, homophobic things we think, 03:27:06.230 --> 03:27:07.670 xenophobic things we think. 03:27:08.920 --> 03:27:13.880 And so, I mean, the things that he has explicitly said over the last few weeks 03:27:13.880 --> 03:27:17.840 that he intends to do right away when he hits office are horrific. 03:27:18.620 --> 03:27:22.840 They're going to, if he even remotely succeeds in 10% of them, 03:27:23.040 --> 03:27:25.220 so many people are going to be hurt badly. 03:27:26.380 --> 03:27:28.980 And if he does the things he says he's going to do on the economy, 03:27:29.160 --> 03:27:31.140 he's going to tank the economy immediately too. 03:27:32.140 --> 03:27:37.160 So, you know, our best hope at this point is he doesn't actually do all the 03:27:37.160 --> 03:27:41.960 things he said he was going to do or once again he ends up you know surrounded 03:27:41.960 --> 03:27:44.720 by incompetence who can actually pull it off. 03:27:44.720 --> 03:27:48.900 I'm not watching this fucking inauguration i i avoided watching the last one 03:27:48.900 --> 03:27:51.560 i'm not fucking watching this one i don't. 03:27:51.560 --> 03:27:51.900 I mean. 03:27:51.900 --> 03:27:54.360 I actually got forced into watching the last fucking. 03:27:54.360 --> 03:27:59.440 Inauguration i well you mean i was at an airport you mean trump's or not biden's 03:27:59.440 --> 03:28:02.880 i well and and look i presume biden's gonna attend i. 03:28:02.880 --> 03:28:03.960 Presume biden will attend. 03:28:03.960 --> 03:28:10.800 Yep and harris yeah They're going to sit there and do their duty in a way that 03:28:10.800 --> 03:28:13.140 Donald Trump will not, would not. 03:28:13.180 --> 03:28:20.140 And I presume Donald Trump is going to treat them with complete disdain at that event too. 03:28:20.820 --> 03:28:22.380 Mm-hmm. Yeah. 03:28:23.400 --> 03:28:29.720 Jon Stewart ended his live daily show tonight with, I just scrolled away. Hold on. 03:28:30.840 --> 03:28:36.140 I get it back. With, this is not the end. We have to continue to fight. 03:28:37.260 --> 03:28:38.180 I'm tired, Sam. 03:28:39.300 --> 03:28:39.760 Yep. 03:28:40.500 --> 03:28:41.580 And I'm very tired. 03:28:42.340 --> 03:28:48.480 Yeah. And I presume you mean existentially, not just because it's 1230. 03:28:48.880 --> 03:28:50.040 Yeah, exactly. 03:28:50.980 --> 03:28:57.740 Yeah. I mean, it's depressing. Like, it's not going to be good. 03:28:58.380 --> 03:29:01.000 Kathy mentioned that apparently somebody's trying to make money, 03:29:01.080 --> 03:29:04.140 at least on this. So she's put into Slack that apparently, uh, 03:29:04.700 --> 03:29:07.600 there was a call mat on CNN tonight. Apparently. 03:29:07.920 --> 03:29:11.980 Yeah. I'm sure that that'll get some good. 03:29:12.100 --> 03:29:14.760 Good timing. Yeah. 03:29:14.980 --> 03:29:20.260 Well, the AP, the AP just called New Mexico for Harris, according to something I just saw. 03:29:20.460 --> 03:29:22.900 They're a little slow too, but you know. 03:29:23.500 --> 03:29:26.600 I can fuck you. The fuck? 03:29:27.600 --> 03:29:30.880 Uh, yeah. Yeah. I'm looking at all these. 03:29:31.320 --> 03:29:37.180 There's no substantial change in the situation in any of these states in the last hour. 03:29:37.720 --> 03:29:40.960 No, no, nope. 03:29:44.970 --> 03:29:47.150 What's that beeping? What do you got beeping over there? 03:29:47.270 --> 03:29:48.750 Nothing. Nothing exciting. 03:29:49.150 --> 03:29:50.070 Nothing interesting? 03:29:50.350 --> 03:29:56.970 Nothing interesting. I'm thinking we might still get a call in Minnesota today. 03:29:57.650 --> 03:29:58.270 Yeah. 03:29:58.650 --> 03:30:00.510 I think they're... 03:30:01.670 --> 03:30:03.150 I will say this. 03:30:05.090 --> 03:30:07.790 They're going to hold off on... 03:30:07.790 --> 03:30:11.750 The margin in Georgia has narrowed 03:30:11.750 --> 03:30:18.630 somehow a lot. is down now to about 140,000 votes, but not enough. 03:30:19.210 --> 03:30:21.550 Yeah, we're still talking 3%. 03:30:21.550 --> 03:30:27.310 About 120,000 votes. I mean, there's 5% of the vote outstanding, 03:30:27.550 --> 03:30:33.750 but 5% out of, what, 5-6 million votes? 03:30:34.210 --> 03:30:37.290 Well, this is why DDHQ is called that one. 03:30:37.630 --> 03:30:38.370 Yeah, I know. 03:30:38.570 --> 03:30:44.890 I don't know why New York Times is being slow, but... Same with they're being 03:30:44.890 --> 03:30:46.530 slow with New Hampshire for some reason. 03:30:46.870 --> 03:30:52.570 How many votes were in Pennsylvania last time around? 03:30:53.130 --> 03:30:54.970 The total votes? I don't know. 03:30:55.090 --> 03:30:58.650 Yeah. I'll look that up. Let's take a look. 03:30:59.490 --> 03:31:06.030 3. 6.7 million votes. Okay. 6.7 million. 03:31:06.630 --> 03:31:08.230 We are at six. 03:31:08.870 --> 03:31:15.050 so basically it's reasonable to expect yeah it's reasonable to expect another 03:31:15.050 --> 03:31:21.250 700 800 000 more votes to count for pennsylvania yeah for pennsylvania that's 03:31:21.250 --> 03:31:26.270 you know yeah that's a decent number but that's a decent number um so. 03:31:26.270 --> 03:31:30.810 You in order to think you would flip it though you need to have a good expectation 03:31:30.810 --> 03:31:32.930 that those are going to be predominantly d. 03:31:32.930 --> 03:31:37.790 Or you just don't know what they are which is why you're not which is why you're 03:31:37.790 --> 03:31:40.850 you're holding up on calling okay right well yeah, 03:31:41.710 --> 03:31:46.950 so yeah because it is a it is a decent chunk of votes i i just i looked up the 03:31:46.950 --> 03:31:53.670 number because yeah that's it's a lot michigan 2020 so then shall let's see 03:31:53.670 --> 03:31:55.950 what how much let's see how many we got, 03:31:56.710 --> 03:31:59.190 okay okay, 03:32:00.550 --> 03:32:10.070 Michigan had about about 5.4 million votes okay so where are we now Michigan. 03:32:11.290 --> 03:32:15.970 Richard by the way says the American carnage speech will be like a fairy tale 03:32:15.970 --> 03:32:18.290 compared to the next inauguration that's. 03:32:18.290 --> 03:32:20.170 What I yeah that's why I said I'm not watching the. 03:32:20.170 --> 03:32:25.390 I read the comments out loud because anybody just watching the video. 03:32:25.670 --> 03:32:27.090 Oh yeah, sorry. Oh yeah. 03:32:27.170 --> 03:32:31.770 Or listening when I attach this to the end of our next podcast. 03:32:31.870 --> 03:32:35.630 All right, Michigan. There are over 2 million votes to be counted. 03:32:36.810 --> 03:32:39.690 right yeah holy shit yeah out. 03:32:39.690 --> 03:32:41.970 Of compared to three already in so. 03:32:41.970 --> 03:32:45.010 Yeah so there's like two million votes to be counted. 03:32:45.010 --> 03:32:48.450 Which is why like 58 of votes. 03:32:48.450 --> 03:32:53.530 And yeah which is why okay which that goes why the dhq hasn't called it okay 03:32:53.530 --> 03:32:57.650 all right so because that's a lot of fucking votes and apparently there's a 03:32:57.650 --> 03:33:00.970 lot of uncertainty of where they are okay so wisconsin let's see, 03:33:01.710 --> 03:33:05.770 2.7 million counted right now. Let's see how much we got last election. 03:33:07.590 --> 03:33:08.110 Okay. 03:33:10.490 --> 03:33:14.630 3.2 million around there. 3.25 million. 03:33:15.030 --> 03:33:19.010 How many we got in Wisconsin counted so far? 3.25, 3.25? 03:33:19.010 --> 03:33:20.910 About three. A little under three. 03:33:21.630 --> 03:33:24.050 Well, no, I'm saying 2.7. 03:33:24.490 --> 03:33:27.110 Yeah, a little under three. That's what I said. 2.7. 03:33:28.250 --> 03:33:35.510 So we got half a million votes in in wisconsin but really i mean in pennsylvania 03:33:35.510 --> 03:33:40.670 michigan there's i mean pennsylvania is showing 89 but the reality is i guess 03:33:40.670 --> 03:33:42.170 it's i don't know how they're doing. 03:33:42.170 --> 03:33:45.050 Well the thing is a lot of it's. 03:33:45.050 --> 03:33:48.130 89 that percentage has always been a little bit tricky. 03:33:48.130 --> 03:33:52.690 Well it's often in the past it was often precincts reporting which isn't really 03:33:52.690 --> 03:33:56.410 right percent of votes but precincts reporting doesn't really make sense for 03:33:56.410 --> 03:34:01.990 mail-in ballots so it's it's a really rough estimate and like and they can guess 03:34:01.990 --> 03:34:06.730 what the total turnout will be but they won't know so right so that's. 03:34:06.730 --> 03:34:09.030 Why yeah so so. 03:34:09.030 --> 03:34:13.590 So my i'm getting here's what i'm thinking i think we might get a call from 03:34:13.590 --> 03:34:18.350 minnesota tonight but they are not going to call arizona wisconsin michigan 03:34:18.350 --> 03:34:21.910 or pennsylvania tonight no i don't think I don't think anybody's going to call 03:34:21.910 --> 03:34:22.950 any of those states tonight. 03:34:23.150 --> 03:34:28.770 No, and I see the amount of votes left over. Yeah, and I see the amount of leftover 03:34:28.770 --> 03:34:31.890 votes, and that's why they're not calling it. 03:34:32.250 --> 03:34:34.930 Because it's a lot of votes. 03:34:35.930 --> 03:34:39.430 I mean, is it looking good for Harris to win, like I said? 03:34:39.510 --> 03:34:39.710 No. 03:34:39.830 --> 03:34:47.670 No. But there's definitely a lot of fucking votes left, which is why they're not calling it. 03:34:47.990 --> 03:34:48.450 Right. 03:34:49.610 --> 03:34:55.530 Fuck. And Arizona is not going to probably release any results right now. 03:34:57.330 --> 03:34:58.050 So... 03:34:59.340 --> 03:35:00.840 I'll be back in just a minute. 03:35:00.840 --> 03:35:03.460 Okay oh. 03:35:03.460 --> 03:35:06.480 Nbc is finally getting around to saying the senate's going republican. 03:35:06.480 --> 03:35:14.140 Oh god well too jesus you know welcome to the party assholes uh harris. 03:35:14.140 --> 03:35:19.260 Not expected to speak at her thing in howard university today pictures of the 03:35:19.260 --> 03:35:20.980 crowd with everyone looking glum. 03:35:20.980 --> 03:35:29.120 Oh so i i i richard i i know that you're very this is very upsetting uh but, 03:35:30.440 --> 03:35:35.080 i don't you text richard texted me to see if i can say something that was comforting 03:35:35.080 --> 03:35:42.540 in some way i don't i can uh i don't i don't really have there's. 03:35:42.540 --> 03:35:43.980 Nothing comforting to say right now, 03:35:46.300 --> 03:35:49.540 no harris's campaign chair is speaking at howard right now. 03:35:49.540 --> 03:35:52.480 What i can what i can, 03:35:55.540 --> 03:35:59.100 it's just not much that I can say that is positive. 03:35:59.320 --> 03:36:06.360 I mean all I can say is that trying to think what it is John Stewart said the 03:36:06.360 --> 03:36:09.340 fight's not over but I'm exhausted. 03:36:09.620 --> 03:36:15.160 I think that the one thing is that just make sure to take care of yourself take 03:36:15.160 --> 03:36:18.080 care of your families take care of your friends, 03:36:19.140 --> 03:36:26.040 and do what you can just to make sure that you those around you are safe as 03:36:26.040 --> 03:36:28.980 best as possible because unfortunately, 03:36:30.360 --> 03:36:34.480 not and look especially we can control especially. 03:36:34.480 --> 03:36:40.000 For those in your life who are in minorities that will be endangered by this. 03:36:40.000 --> 03:36:42.160 Yeah you. 03:36:42.160 --> 03:36:43.960 Know because, 03:36:47.000 --> 03:36:52.560 people's lives, I'm losing my voice. People's lives will be destroyed by this. 03:36:53.040 --> 03:36:53.520 Yeah. 03:36:54.040 --> 03:37:00.460 You are already seeing it with people dying because of the abortion bans, 03:37:01.280 --> 03:37:03.980 but the way that they are, 03:37:05.490 --> 03:37:11.510 Cracking down on trans people, making it harder for gay people, 03:37:12.670 --> 03:37:17.790 making, you know, and despite the increases in minorities who apparently voted 03:37:17.790 --> 03:37:20.830 for Trump tonight, making it harder for all minorities. 03:37:21.050 --> 03:37:24.490 I was trying to say something to make them feel better. You're not helping them. 03:37:24.730 --> 03:37:31.750 Yes, yes. Yes, yes. You're right. Take care of each other. That's what you were saying. Indeed. 03:37:32.030 --> 03:37:39.470 Yes. um i mean that's the best we can do you know and it's not even a thing 03:37:39.470 --> 03:37:48.670 oh yeah i don't know it's just that simple and like i was saying before i mean we've got a fucking, 03:37:49.390 --> 03:37:54.730 surge of authoritarianism that is on around the fucking world. 03:37:56.550 --> 03:38:00.670 Yeah while i was gone richard had mentioned the courts being further packed 03:38:00.670 --> 03:38:04.770 hello Judge Cannon I would not be surprised in the slightest. 03:38:04.770 --> 03:38:08.150 By Justice Cannon I know I thought. 03:38:08.150 --> 03:38:09.250 You were done reassuring. 03:38:09.250 --> 03:38:10.250 People and now we can. 03:38:10.250 --> 03:38:11.250 Like slam people. 03:38:11.250 --> 03:38:15.710 Again now we can go like oh yeah thumbs up no I'm not giving a fucking thumbs 03:38:15.710 --> 03:38:23.510 up I'm giving this fucking finger where did you get my fucking thumbs up stupid computer thumbs up, 03:38:25.630 --> 03:38:27.110 stupid fucking thing. 03:38:29.550 --> 03:38:34.290 New York Times up to 93 percent ddhq up to 94. 03:38:34.290 --> 03:38:37.370 Well how. 03:38:37.370 --> 03:38:42.050 Did we call oh george has been called too so let me just move that over. 03:38:42.050 --> 03:38:51.010 Oh yeah yeah finally yeah yeah post on that i'll globe and char one that i called 03:38:51.010 --> 03:38:53.170 it at least this is so weird, 03:38:54.630 --> 03:38:58.970 ddhq has the michigan margin with 03:38:58.970 --> 03:39:07.850 64 in at 50 000 votes okay new york times with 62 percent reporting has them 03:39:07.850 --> 03:39:17.110 at jesus over 200 000 votes swing so ddhq has it much tighter in michigan are they are they behind or. 03:39:17.110 --> 03:39:17.950 Ahead in their count. 03:39:17.950 --> 03:39:22.410 They're ahead okay two point two percentage points So. 03:39:22.410 --> 03:39:26.410 Richard has two questions. One, Fannie Willis got reelected. 03:39:26.470 --> 03:39:29.690 How bold will she try to be? My answer to that is it won't matter. 03:39:30.370 --> 03:39:35.970 Once he's sworn in, all state proceedings will be paused until the end of his presidency. 03:39:36.230 --> 03:39:36.930 It won't matter. 03:39:37.170 --> 03:39:37.550 It won't matter. 03:39:37.590 --> 03:39:38.450 None of this will matter. 03:39:38.930 --> 03:39:43.890 And I expect the same on New York, too. Like when they delayed the sentencing 03:39:43.890 --> 03:39:48.130 till after the election, like at this point, I would not be surprised if the 03:39:48.130 --> 03:39:51.230 sentencing is further delayed until after the presidency. 03:39:51.230 --> 03:39:56.590 So, you know, we've only got a couple of weeks until that sentencing is supposed to happen. 03:39:56.930 --> 03:39:59.110 I will be surprised if it does. 03:39:59.590 --> 03:40:03.570 He, he also, Richard also says, if I were Jack Smith, I'd be afraid for my life. 03:40:04.490 --> 03:40:09.690 There are a bunch of folks. I mean, I, I saw Cohen. 03:40:10.950 --> 03:40:16.290 You know, Trump's former right hand man has said explicitly that he's already 03:40:16.290 --> 03:40:23.530 been making plans to leave the country and already has a place that he is going to go. 03:40:23.770 --> 03:40:29.730 He's already arranged for the documents and it's his contingency plan that as 03:40:29.730 --> 03:40:34.190 soon as if Donald Trump was reelected, he'd be leaving immediately. 03:40:34.830 --> 03:40:38.010 There are a number of people, I think, who will feel like they're in danger. 03:40:38.010 --> 03:40:44.510 This also reiterates, by the way, the importance of like, it's inexcusable how 03:40:44.510 --> 03:40:51.130 slow the process to deal with January 6th was after it happened. It's also like. 03:40:51.130 --> 03:40:52.810 All these people are getting pardoned. 03:40:52.850 --> 03:40:56.150 All of these people are going to get pardoned. Absolutely. All of the January 03:40:56.150 --> 03:40:57.530 6th people are going to get pardoned. 03:40:57.690 --> 03:41:03.190 He's going to end the prosecutions against himself, obviously, as soon as he's sworn in. 03:41:04.110 --> 03:41:09.270 but you know all of that stuff should have happened faster and more aggressively and all. 03:41:09.270 --> 03:41:11.270 Right i don't want to keep talking about this. 03:41:13.150 --> 03:41:18.390 You know there's all kinds of stuff you know woulda coulda shoulda right but 03:41:18.390 --> 03:41:25.390 didn't so yeah yeah i'm actually surprised donald trump hasn't officially announced 03:41:25.390 --> 03:41:27.430 his victory yet but he's i'm. 03:41:27.430 --> 03:41:29.450 Gonna i'm gonna tell you why because. 03:41:29.450 --> 03:41:30.330 Because he doesn't know he. 03:41:30.330 --> 03:41:32.930 Was gonna do it exactly he doesn't have. 03:41:32.930 --> 03:41:37.130 To he doesn't have to he can wait he can wait he can wait like the whole the 03:41:37.130 --> 03:41:42.170 whole announce early thing was if he was behind he's not yeah this is a this 03:41:42.170 --> 03:41:47.710 is a legitimate straight up win he doesn't have to play shenanigans yeah up 03:41:47.710 --> 03:41:51.350 to 95 percent at new york times for. 03:41:51.350 --> 03:41:52.110 Oh yeah, 03:41:54.290 --> 03:41:55.830 when are you going back to work. 03:41:55.830 --> 03:42:02.170 Monday Hey, but Yvonne, look at the bright side. You're going to have RFK Jr. 03:42:02.270 --> 03:42:03.550 in charge of health care. 03:42:04.270 --> 03:42:06.930 Yeah, that's going to be very helpful, of course. 03:42:08.030 --> 03:42:10.890 NBC is slow. New Mexico, they're calling. 03:42:13.590 --> 03:42:16.050 Oh, Alaska's about to close. Yay. 03:42:19.630 --> 03:42:25.150 By the way, right now, Trump is winning Bucks County, 50 to 49%. 03:42:26.070 --> 03:42:26.590 Yep. 03:42:27.270 --> 03:42:32.130 I don't see where any of this comes from. There isn't anywhere in Pennsylvania 03:42:32.130 --> 03:42:35.230 where there's enough votes to make this change. 03:42:35.910 --> 03:42:38.630 I mean, if he's got Pennsylvania, he's got it. He's done. 03:42:38.950 --> 03:42:41.790 Well, and he's got all three. He's got all three. 03:42:41.790 --> 03:42:45.510 It's just you know which i mean it's just they're ahead in account i mean they're 03:42:45.510 --> 03:42:47.150 ahead and counting i mean so it's 03:42:47.150 --> 03:42:51.870 like 92 yeah you know once you call pennsylvania that's it it's done so, 03:42:53.310 --> 03:42:59.350 like everybody said tipping point was pennsylvania well you know where you have 03:42:59.350 --> 03:43:02.910 it yet i mean technically. 03:43:02.910 --> 03:43:07.150 Technically speaking you move pennsylvania over right now there's still a couple 03:43:07.150 --> 03:43:15.270 paths if you know but impossible not realistic paths given the rest of the map we're seeing. 03:43:15.270 --> 03:43:19.310 Yeah i mean yeah you take pennsylvania you'd. 03:43:19.310 --> 03:43:22.250 Have to give them back michigan wisconsin arizona nevada. 03:43:22.250 --> 03:43:26.150 And that there's just the numbers aren't i 03:43:26.150 --> 03:43:30.570 mean there's such a huge discrepancy between ddhq 03:43:30.570 --> 03:43:38.370 michigan vote counts and new york time vote counts is as they were ahead i mean 03:43:38.370 --> 03:43:46.430 ddhq has more i mean ddhq shows a much tighter race oh okay and they've counted more okay votes. 03:43:48.890 --> 03:43:50.650 Oh, yeah. In Michigan? 03:43:51.170 --> 03:43:55.790 Yeah. It's a big difference. It's not small. 03:43:56.210 --> 03:43:58.810 Yeah, I can see why you aren't going to be calling Michigan. 03:43:59.690 --> 03:44:00.210 No. 03:44:01.430 --> 03:44:05.670 Pennsylvania is harder to justify. Unless you know there's a lot of... 03:44:05.670 --> 03:44:10.570 Well, you mentioned the expected number outstanding is a lot still. 03:44:10.990 --> 03:44:18.890 Yeah, it's still a lot. you probably got about at least half a million votes 03:44:18.890 --> 03:44:25.230 in Pennsylvania right now where they're at right now in Michigan you got about 1.5 million, 03:44:26.270 --> 03:44:27.370 Wisconsin though, 03:44:28.730 --> 03:44:36.210 I mean well and I'm looking at early reporting Nevada but only 17% Donald's 03:44:36.210 --> 03:44:41.470 up Arizona Donald's up I mean he's up on. 03:44:41.470 --> 03:44:45.490 Everything on all so 03:44:45.490 --> 03:44:49.030 nate cohen's summary from 35 minutes ago another 03:44:49.030 --> 03:44:51.950 hour has gone by but the story is still the same trump is 03:44:51.950 --> 03:44:55.330 favored in each of pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin and 03:44:55.330 --> 03:44:58.570 we'll just have to wait longer to see whether maybe just maybe harris will do 03:44:58.570 --> 03:45:04.170 better than expected in key democratic areas but the the and it's better than 03:45:04.170 --> 03:45:12.290 expected not just in general but because she's been under underperforming everywhere today i. 03:45:12.290 --> 03:45:17.990 Don't know how i'm gonna try to get some sleep the fuck do i got what's my calendar 03:45:17.990 --> 03:45:19.570 looking like tomorrow jesus. 03:45:20.670 --> 03:45:27.710 Richard says i have to be at the hospital in seven hours and have no idea how i can sleep yeah try. 03:45:27.710 --> 03:45:30.250 To get some rest richard because it's not. 03:45:36.960 --> 03:45:45.880 I um you guys call a night okay bub's recording failed recording has stopped 03:45:45.880 --> 03:45:51.460 but everything up till now has been saved tell them to stop and restart well 03:45:51.460 --> 03:45:54.380 i guess i lost okay i'm holding on, 03:45:56.000 --> 03:45:57.540 and yvonne is back. 03:45:57.540 --> 03:46:03.180 Well the youtube recording is keeping the recording going right yeah. 03:46:03.180 --> 03:46:07.500 Well the riverside said it saved your stuff okay. 03:46:07.500 --> 03:46:09.900 I don't know it's just for some reason. 03:46:09.900 --> 03:46:14.760 I should have multiple copies of everything here if needed i'm. 03:46:14.760 --> 03:46:17.160 Just um fab. 03:46:17.160 --> 03:46:23.340 Yeah i mean it's yeah i i mean, 03:46:24.520 --> 03:46:31.160 i i am in i don't know i was gonna say disbelief but not really i mean i knew 03:46:31.160 --> 03:46:32.640 this was a possibility yeah. 03:46:32.640 --> 03:46:33.440 We knew we knew. 03:46:33.440 --> 03:46:34.360 It was a possibility. 03:46:34.360 --> 03:46:35.000 We i mean. 03:46:35.000 --> 03:46:41.720 But i i really really hoped that this was not the path that would be taken like 03:46:41.720 --> 03:46:47.240 i continue to be dumbfounded and disappointed by my fellow Americans. 03:46:47.440 --> 03:46:54.540 I mean, this is, this is a very, very dark path we are heading down. 03:46:56.980 --> 03:47:02.540 New York Times now has Pennsylvania as very likely are, pegged on that side. 03:47:02.880 --> 03:47:05.460 Michigan at lean. Wisconsin at lean. 03:47:06.240 --> 03:47:13.480 They're up to greater than 95% chance on their odds. And DDHQ is at 94%. 03:47:13.480 --> 03:47:17.300 I don't know. I don't get people. 03:47:17.500 --> 03:47:22.660 I don't understand why. They're just seduced by this. 03:47:23.680 --> 03:47:28.260 You want us out of time to stop, Yvonne? I'll go another 15 minutes. 03:47:28.920 --> 03:47:29.060 Yeah. 03:47:29.640 --> 03:47:32.100 Okay. You got work in the morning? 03:47:38.500 --> 03:47:40.440 Where's my mouse? Okay. 03:47:41.260 --> 03:47:43.580 Yeah. In 2020. 03:47:44.300 --> 03:47:44.860 Yeah. 03:47:45.340 --> 03:47:52.840 Hillary Clinton got in Florida 4.5 million votes. Kamala Harris got this time around 4.647 votes. 03:47:53.380 --> 03:47:54.400 Which state was that? 03:47:54.620 --> 03:47:57.440 Florida. know that harris got 03:47:57.440 --> 03:48:01.740 150 000 more votes than clinton right trump 03:48:01.740 --> 03:48:11.240 got 4.6 million in 2016 he got 6.1 million this year i mean 1.5 million more 03:48:11.240 --> 03:48:19.360 votes and this is and and this is while harris got also 150,000 more votes over, 03:48:19.360 --> 03:48:23.240 you know, what's his face? 03:48:23.840 --> 03:48:32.480 2020, Harris way has underperformed, but 5.3 million votes, 4.6 million. 03:48:33.840 --> 03:48:41.460 Trump went from 5.6 to 6.1 million. I mean, he got more votes. 03:48:42.380 --> 03:48:44.660 He just got more people. 03:48:46.660 --> 03:48:51.500 It's not like Dems, I mean, that's what I was saying about people moving, 03:48:51.640 --> 03:48:57.100 it's not like Dems turned away as much, well some did, I guess, 03:48:57.160 --> 03:49:00.960 because we've got 5.3 million from Harris, but I mean, shit, 03:49:01.340 --> 03:49:06.020 I mean Harris got more votes than Hillary Clinton still not enough right, 03:49:07.700 --> 03:49:15.860 I mean by the way, Trump won the Tampa area Okay, 03:49:16.620 --> 03:49:20.900 that had been reliably democratic in the past. 03:49:24.830 --> 03:49:27.490 I mean, I'm looking through every election. 03:49:27.670 --> 03:49:29.970 Trump is about to give a speech. 03:49:30.370 --> 03:49:35.310 Oh, God, I don't want to hear it. I don't fucking care. I don't want to listen to this clown. 03:49:36.030 --> 03:49:41.270 Not just the day did we lose Tampa. It went Republican, but Miami-Dade went 03:49:41.270 --> 03:49:45.050 also, which even in 2020 was Democratic. 03:49:46.170 --> 03:49:48.670 I highly doubt he's going to be magnanimous. 03:49:49.410 --> 03:49:54.970 No, he doesn't have that in him. Roger Stone's back. 03:49:56.350 --> 03:49:59.950 Oh fuck who is talking now. 03:50:01.490 --> 03:50:06.130 Some random reporter at the venue that Trump is heading towards. 03:50:07.570 --> 03:50:10.870 Isn't he at fucking Mar-a-Lago I mean I would have assumed. 03:50:10.870 --> 03:50:16.630 Yeah I think he's at Mar-a-Lago well now he's coming from Mar-a-Lago the event 03:50:16.630 --> 03:50:21.470 is at some larger place some big looks like a hangar or something, 03:50:24.330 --> 03:50:27.330 uh fox declares pennsylvania for trump. 03:50:27.330 --> 03:50:35.370 I mean actually ddhq just did as well actually ddhq has declared trump the winner. 03:50:35.370 --> 03:50:40.030 Yep well what okay yep that will do it. 03:50:41.170 --> 03:50:42.130 Yeah that's it. 03:50:42.130 --> 03:50:50.030 So the range at this point is the best harris could do is to lose by two electoral 03:50:50.030 --> 03:50:53.690 votes if she ran the table on everything that hasn't been called yet, 03:50:53.890 --> 03:50:54.650 which isn't going to happen. 03:50:56.130 --> 03:51:02.250 And Trump's best is still to win by 86, which is what looks like will probably 03:51:02.250 --> 03:51:06.130 happen unless some of these states flip from where they are right now. 03:51:06.430 --> 03:51:09.410 Yeah. Yeah. That's what I'm still going to like. 03:51:09.710 --> 03:51:17.790 Which is what the median case of my uniform swing model said was Trump by 86. 03:51:19.060 --> 03:51:23.540 So DDHQ hasn't officially declared him the winner yet. Cause they haven't died. 03:51:24.060 --> 03:51:28.560 Their red bar to two 70 includes states that he's ahead, but they haven't called yet. But. 03:51:29.260 --> 03:51:33.220 No, I was actually looking at the one that they declare Trump's. 03:51:33.400 --> 03:51:35.700 They have a check mark right beside the two 70. 03:51:35.900 --> 03:51:40.080 Oh yeah, they do. Well, but yeah, but that, but the two 70 is based on including 03:51:40.080 --> 03:51:42.800 Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona. 03:51:43.020 --> 03:51:43.640 I don't know. 03:51:43.700 --> 03:51:44.500 No, you're right. 03:51:44.600 --> 03:51:46.360 No, no, it doesn't. 03:51:46.500 --> 03:51:49.860 No, I didn't know you're right. And they have the same count I have. So what am I saying? 03:51:50.020 --> 03:51:59.160 I have 270 as well in that Harris's best case is the 268 to 270 case, 03:51:59.340 --> 03:52:00.160 which is what they have there. 03:52:00.520 --> 03:52:07.220 But that is assuming a couple of the states that are really ahead. 03:52:07.400 --> 03:52:13.480 Yeah, Minnesota. So that's 223. I mean, she's not ahead in Nevada. 03:52:13.480 --> 03:52:14.960 She's not ahead in Arizona. 03:52:16.040 --> 03:52:20.940 Maybe she pulls one of those out. Well, he got 223 plus. 03:52:22.060 --> 03:52:25.680 Oh, he hasn't called Maine. Harris is ahead. 03:52:26.120 --> 03:52:26.380 Yeah. 03:52:28.980 --> 03:52:32.840 And by the way, I'm not even sure if this time he doesn't really win the popular vote. 03:52:33.180 --> 03:52:36.220 He might at this point. It's going to be close. 03:52:36.600 --> 03:52:37.000 Yeah. 03:52:37.300 --> 03:52:42.920 I mean, I think there's probably a significant chunk in California that might put Harris. 03:52:43.160 --> 03:52:47.560 Like, it's going to be close. It's going to be close. So popular vote could still go either way. 03:52:48.280 --> 03:52:54.600 Yeah because he's ahead by five million votes like right now oh god i got some, 03:52:56.290 --> 03:52:59.030 It's stupid columns already out. 03:52:59.470 --> 03:53:05.030 Could a Trump victory offer an unlikely opening to an American renewal? 03:53:08.370 --> 03:53:10.090 You can be quiet, Chetsky. 03:53:11.150 --> 03:53:15.630 California has repealed Proposition 8, which I don't know which one it was, 03:53:15.750 --> 03:53:19.170 and enshrined same-sex marriage rights in the state constitution. 03:53:19.650 --> 03:53:22.190 So I don't remember which one was Proposition 8. 03:53:22.670 --> 03:53:23.550 There we go. 03:53:23.970 --> 03:53:26.130 I guess it's time for me to try to... 03:53:26.290 --> 03:53:30.710 Okay we'll close this out any. 03:53:30.710 --> 03:53:33.490 Parting shots you want to record for posterity. 03:53:34.170 --> 03:53:41.350 No we'll collect our thoughts a little bit record a show later in the week but just, 03:53:42.830 --> 03:53:45.590 this is i i keep 03:53:45.590 --> 03:53:49.490 thinking about the quote about the 03:53:49.490 --> 03:53:52.610 start of the cold war about the the lights going off 03:53:52.610 --> 03:53:55.390 or was that start of world war two anyway the 03:53:55.390 --> 03:53:58.250 lights going off around europe or whatever this is 03:53:58.250 --> 03:54:05.290 this is ushering in what's going to be a very dark period in u.s and world history 03:54:05.290 --> 03:54:09.790 i don't see any way around that like one way or another it's going to be bad 03:54:09.790 --> 03:54:18.090 and just like a lot of these other dark periods in world history people voted it in. 03:54:18.090 --> 03:54:19.870 They wanted it. 03:54:19.870 --> 03:54:21.590 Yep these. 03:54:21.590 --> 03:54:22.630 People wanted it. 03:54:22.630 --> 03:54:25.250 Yep and we'll see how it 03:54:25.250 --> 03:54:28.590 goes i mean i i my 03:54:28.590 --> 03:54:31.990 the best hope at this point is 03:54:31.990 --> 03:54:34.690 that all of us are wrong and that it won't be 03:54:34.690 --> 03:54:37.650 nearly as bad as we fear i mean 03:54:37.650 --> 03:54:40.330 you know people people pointed out over and 03:54:40.330 --> 03:54:44.370 over again for the last trump administration see all 03:54:44.370 --> 03:54:47.490 the things you said would happen didn't all happen it wasn't 03:54:47.490 --> 03:54:50.490 that bad but it was 03:54:50.490 --> 03:54:53.490 it was really bad for a lot of people it was really bad 03:54:53.490 --> 03:55:01.730 for a lot of people yes and you know most of the like the majors haven't done 03:55:01.730 --> 03:55:06.850 the final calls yet but it but you know ddhq and the hill have and it's clear 03:55:06.850 --> 03:55:11.370 if you combine If you combine the calls from the various people who've made calls, 03:55:11.650 --> 03:55:15.270 it's clear, like, we're done here. 03:55:15.730 --> 03:55:18.070 So, it is what it is. 03:55:18.810 --> 03:55:22.470 And we'll all have to figure out how to live in that universe. 03:55:23.530 --> 03:55:26.830 Okay. All right. Well, I'm signing out. Okay. 03:55:26.970 --> 03:55:31.450 And I'm just going to sign out, too. So, thank you, everybody who joined the 03:55:31.450 --> 03:55:35.970 live stream. and anybody who listens to this later as well. 03:55:36.750 --> 03:55:42.470 I'll include some version of all this at the end of our next episode, undoubtedly. 03:55:42.990 --> 03:55:48.710 And that's it. Prepare yourself for Trump too. 03:55:49.870 --> 03:55:50.950 All right. Good night. 03:55:51.370 --> 03:55:52.150 Good night all.