Sam: Greetings, Mr. Bo. Hold on, let me make sure the singe is singing.
Ivan: Greetings and salutations.
Sam: Whoa, echo.
Ivan: No, no, I'm very far from the microphone. There we go. Now, greetings and salutations. There we go.
Sam: Do you have another hard stop this week or no?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Same time?
Ivan: Same. Same.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Same. All same, because I got to take my new month. So everything is the same. Yeah.
Sam: Hold on. I just did something stupid. Okay, there we go.
Sam: Sorry. me this wasn't there we go hit the button okay let's start this and just go,
Sam: ready for me to hit the button hit the button long ago ready okay come on,
Sam: welcome to curmudgeon's corner for saturday november 2nd 2024 it is 1507 utc
Sam: as we're starting to record this so once again it's an 8 a.m morning call for
Sam: me 11 a.m i guess for yvonne,
Sam: And, yeah, I'm Sam Menter, Yvonne Bowes here, Curmudgeon's Corner,
Sam: blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: Blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: This is our last show before the election, Yvonne.
Sam: Yvonne, once again, has a hard stop. So this will be a shorter show than normal.
Sam: And we're going to sort of try to rush through things.
Sam: Our normal structure is this. But first, I don't know how much we'll do in order
Sam: to save time today, maybe.
Sam: But then after that, look, it'll be all election stuff.
Ivan: I'll be you know i'll.
Sam: I'll do an update on polls and then we'll talk about everything else but that's the plan.
Ivan: That's the plan that's it's a plan you know so uh i mentioned i i think i mentioned
Ivan: on the slack that and i've noticed this is elections approach in the last couple
Ivan: of presidential cycles where basically I, you know,
Ivan: almost everything that involves people talking, even if it's,
Ivan: if I tune into a business show or a podcast of some other nature or program,
Ivan: people start talking about the election.
Ivan: One thing that I realized is that,
Ivan: I mean, a long, long time ago, not recently,
Ivan: I pretty much got fed up with most of the public talk on any of these subjects
Ivan: because it involves a lot of people that just have no clue about anything.
Ivan: And all it does is, for the most part, just aggravate me.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And it becomes far more aggravating as we close in on an election like this.
Ivan: And these last elections have been far more aggravating than any other elections
Ivan: that I have ever lived through.
Ivan: And so, like, this week, I wound up getting in a rental car,
Ivan: or I was, and choosing to absolutely just...
Ivan: I didn't want to hear anything in the car, which is not normal.
Ivan: I usually would be playing music, something or whatever. And I was just like,
Ivan: okay, just turn it all off.
Ivan: I don't want to, I don't want to hear anybody talking. I don't want to hear
Ivan: any music. I just, I don't want to hear anything.
Ivan: And I will give credit to ESPN for one thing.
Ivan: A few years ago, they got into some issues with some announcers that decided,
Ivan: that they wanted to talk about politics during sports.
Ivan: And you can debate whatever the merits of what ESPN was doing or not,
Ivan: because they actually reprimanded a few of them. Some of them quit,
Ivan: some of them left or whatever.
Ivan: But one thing that I could do to watch something where people would actually
Ivan: act like the election doesn't exist was to tune into ESPN.
Ivan: And they reliably, regardless who was on, it was like it didn't exist.
Ivan: And so I don't really watch ESPN that much anymore because or because one of
Ivan: the things that's happened with the current media landscape is you can get so
Ivan: much other and probably more.
Ivan: Attuned to your tastes information from a whole bunch of other sources. Okay.
Ivan: And so, you know, it used to be that 20, 30 years ago, if you wanted to find
Ivan: out what was going on in sports, the only place you could really go to was ESPN.
Ivan: I mean, because they were like the worldwide leader, but now there's so many
Ivan: little websites, podcasts, this YouTube, whatever.
Ivan: There's quite a lot of very creative people on YouTube doing some fun content
Ivan: and sports and whatnot, you know, that I can just get whatever the heck I want without,
Ivan: in the style I want, and probably focused on specifically what I want to find
Ivan: out is going on, without having to go through a lot of other generic information,
Ivan: which a channel with large,
Ivan: not just national, includes a global audience, even though they have like European
Ivan: ESPN, they have ESPN in Espanol, They have other versions, but,
Ivan: but that channel is played in many places in the world.
Ivan: It's got to be far more generic. And so that's the one thing about that.
Ivan: But I could tune in to ESPN this week and listen to not one mention,
Ivan: not one of anything that was happening in the election. I was like, oh, this is good.
Ivan: I mean, because right now all we're doing, including us at this point, mind you, is.
Sam: Is repeating over and over and over. It's too close to call and we'll see what
Sam: happens on election night and trying to read meaning into little bits of noisy data that like.
Ivan: You know, yeah, we're going, look, look, there's a 0.01 move here and another little one there.
Ivan: And oh my God, who's the pollster that came into the thing?
Sam: Oh, and here's some early vote numbers that may or may not mean anything.
Ivan: Oh, may not mean anything. Look, look, look, you've got, oh my God,
Ivan: look at the numbers and the turnout.
Ivan: Out like, hey, Sam, you know, 50% of the people in Florida have already voted.
Ivan: Does that mean anything?
Sam: Maybe.
Ivan: You know, I, it's, it's, it's down to just, you know, such by douche.
Ivan: So that was the one thing I was doing. The second thing is my wife is working early voting.
Ivan: Okay. So she has done this now. It's, it's early voting will be finished in
Ivan: Florida on Sunday before the election.
Ivan: Monday, no, no voting. Then, then Tuesday, the poll.
Ivan: So at least one thing is that they've had already about 50% of registered voters
Ivan: turn out at this point, but, but that still leaves quite a lot of people to turn out on Tuesday.
Ivan: Yeah. So, so that leaves that, that big a number.
Ivan: Well, one of the things is that because my wife was out of town,
Ivan: she actually asked her aunt, but because I, because my wife,
Ivan: I'm not out of town because she's been working and I have had to go out of town for a couple of days.
Ivan: My wife's aunt from colombia uh
Ivan: came and has stayed with us to help us help us with
Ivan: mon okay um since since that's
Ivan: been going on one interesting thing i asked her yesterday because i wanted to
Ivan: get her take she has not been she's rarely visited the u.s in recent decades
Ivan: okay she she she did live in the uk for many years but has lived in colombia
Ivan: most of her life and one of the interesting things that I had,
Ivan: she's around 70-something years old, was,
Ivan: okay, what was the impression that you had of what you expected to see when
Ivan: you came to Florida versus,
Ivan: you know, what is it that you've seen versus what you thought in your head, okay?
Ivan: Or would you be based on what you heard? I will say that there was one very
Ivan: interesting thing, and it revolves around immigrants, especially about Hispanic immigrants.
Ivan: Because as you know, there is so much propaganda going around of what's going
Ivan: on with immigration in the U.S.
Ivan: And from a lot of what she had heard, she's a very well-educated person, by the way.
Ivan: Okay, so this isn't, you know, this is just the reality is of where she gets
Ivan: her news and what she sees. It's just, you know, what she hears.
Ivan: You know, always perception is not reality. I mean, I remember when I came to the U.S.
Ivan: For the first time, what I thought that I would see versus what you see in reality
Ivan: is always different. And so for me, I wanted to see what she heard.
Ivan: And one thing is that she admitted, look, this comes from the fact that I hadn't been here.
Ivan: Well, I hadn't been in Florida, period. I expected that I would see all these
Ivan: Latino immigrants all over the place, like on street corners and everywhere begging them.
Ivan: Like like homeless like harassing people because of
Ivan: all this shit that i've heard about that's what she expected to see yeah because
Ivan: that's what's because that's that's the message that keeps being
Ivan: probably spread more loudly about
Ivan: how immigrants in this country and how they're trying to throw them
Ivan: out and blah blah blah and the mass deportations blah
Ivan: blah blah and so what she got in her head from all
Ivan: of this very loud messaging that's
Ivan: going on right now which you know it goes about the messaging
Ivan: versus reality right is that oh my
Ivan: god i just expected all of these people to be panhandling and
Ivan: like harassing people because of all the complaints i heard and i've
Ivan: been here for two weeks i haven't seen a single one no one and i was like and
Ivan: that was like a very shocking thing to her to see and actually to get somebody
Ivan: with the fresh eyes of seeing what the right-wing propaganda.
Ivan: Has made as the message of what is going on with the immigrants and how it's
Ivan: seen by people who don't see it.
Ivan: And when they actually come in and see it and they're like, what the fuck are they talking about?
Ivan: And so to me, that was a very shocking thing.
Ivan: The other thing I think that she heard repeatedly is how, because of America
Ivan: is some kind of like a hellscape,
Ivan: like of something you know based on what's been
Ivan: going on recently and she was like
Ivan: and especially you hear that a lot not just
Ivan: from right-wing people like trump who keeps
Ivan: calling places that the u.s is garbage and whatever or
Ivan: not because that's what they're saying very loudly right now violent this
Ivan: violent cesspools garbage cities you
Ivan: know destroyed blah blah blah and you get that
Ivan: a lot also from the ultra left in in
Ivan: in uh latin america and she was like holy
Ivan: shit everything is like so perfect
Ivan: i i i'm right i'm still like everything is
Ivan: like beyond perfect i could never imagine that things anywhere
Ivan: could be so perfect that she went to
Ivan: visit his school and she worked in public schools in columbia okay and she had
Ivan: heard all this shit about u.s education whatever about whatever she went to
Ivan: manu school and she was like this place is a fucking palace the fuck are they
Ivan: talking about and it's and i i just thought that these things and the perspective of.
Ivan: What it is that is said in the in the propaganda war because sam because we
Ivan: are in the middle of what truly is a massive propaganda war. Okay?
Sam: Mm-hmm.
Ivan: It has nothing to do with facts. It has everything to do with what the propaganda
Ivan: is and what the effect of that propaganda has on people and the perspective of what they see.
Sam: Well, we haven't talked about it as much this time around as in 2016, obviously,
Sam: but the sort of international players trying to, quote-unquote,
Sam: interfere with elections is actually only part of it.
Sam: First of all, international players, including our government,
Sam: I am goddamn sure, are working to interfere with elections all over the freaking world.
Ivan: They always have.
Sam: And they all are. So we had a lot of focus on Russia.
Sam: Russia's still at it. But so is China.
Sam: So is Saudi Arabia. So is Iran. So is Israel.
Sam: Israel. I would be surprised if there is any major country that isn't.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And they're and they're doing it to every election for every country that they
Sam: care about in whatever way, shape or form to some degree or another,
Sam: but also completely outside of elections.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: They're still trying to influence the internal politics of countries who are relevant to their own.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: You know, because you want to move things in a direction that's positive towards you.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: And or or you just want to foment chaos. In countries that are your adversary.
Sam: So they won't be as effective as being at being your adversary.
Ivan: Absolutely.
Sam: And, and, and this is absolutely like, even though we're talking about it less
Sam: than we did eight years ago, it's happening a lot more than it was eight years ago.
Ivan: This is happening so much more. It's happening way, way, way more. Yeah.
Ivan: But it's just, and this.
Sam: And this, by the way, leads to the increase in people feeling that,
Sam: well, they can't trust anything.
Sam: Facts don't, facts don't matter because there's no way to know what's true because
Sam: everybody's bullshitting you.
Ivan: You know, and the thing is that what, well, I had first, I had that as a,
Ivan: but first I wanted to mention this before I got this, but making a segue into
Ivan: some of the, you know, what the punditry is doing out there.
Ivan: Nate Cohn, who is the data analyst at the New York Times, put out a column today
Ivan: on why it's so hard to defeat Trump.
Ivan: And I read it, and I didn't even share it because he's a good data analyst.
Ivan: But I'll tell you that that was the most disingenuous note I ever read in my life.
Ivan: Because it was one of these things where what he said, well,
Ivan: the issue is that – and I actually heard somebody else this week, Bob Costas on another.
Ivan: On a sport podcast went and veered into this
Ivan: for a little bit and i wound up having to hear a little bit of
Ivan: this and it's this whole disingenuous thing well
Ivan: the problem is that the democrats have
Ivan: been on the wrong side of certain positions and and policy and i'll and i'm
Ivan: like i'm looking at this and i'm like how how how in today still to this day
Ivan: i still keep hearing people saying this complete sheer nonsense.
Ivan: It's got nothing to do with any of the fucking democratic positions.
Ivan: Most of them that if you actually poll, you find that most people support.
Ivan: It's all the fake straw man that are being built up and all the fake propaganda
Ivan: that says that the main issue is America,
Ivan: is that you're going to send your child to school and they're going to make
Ivan: a sex change operation and return it to him as a girl, or a boy,
Ivan: or whatever other thing.
Ivan: This is the problem.
Sam: And immigrants are coming to, like, rape your children as well.
Ivan: And eat your cats and dogs. And they're overrunning the country.
Ivan: And they're panhandling and every day.
Ivan: Amcorner doing nothing and taking government benefits and voting illegally.
Ivan: It has nothing, nothing, nothing to do with actual facts.
Ivan: It has to do with the entire GOP being in on absolute propaganda of shit that
Ivan: isn't real and that the facts have not mattered.
Ivan: And it doesn't matter because Bob Costas on this podcast saying,
Ivan: well, the thing is that they take some positions or whatever that feed Fox. No, no, no.
Ivan: They will make it up. It doesn't matter. You could sit over there and not say one damn thing.
Ivan: And they will say that you are out there going and say, hey,
Ivan: violent criminals, go crime all you want. Hey, you know what?
Ivan: You know, we want pedophile teachers, you know, gay pedophile teachers that
Ivan: are fucking every child at school.
Ivan: They will make they will make right now there you you can sit there.
Ivan: 90% of the shit that you're talking about is not based on any talking point
Ivan: that the Democrats have actually ever made.
Ivan: It's completely made of bullshit that they repeat and they repeat and they push. I mean, I don't know.
Sam: Well, and I'll add one thing that even in the best of days, people didn't really
Sam: ever make their decision on policy anyway.
Sam: They based their voting decision on two things.
Sam: One is sort of a, and this has increased over the last few decades,
Sam: it used to be a lot less like this,
Sam: but sort of tribal association with a party, like everybody you know and all
Sam: your friends are with this party, so you are too.
Sam: And like I said, this didn't used to be that way. We used to have radical swings,
Sam: election from election, where lots of people switched parties.
Ivan: It would go for Democrats. Yep, yep.
Sam: Yeah. People were not set in stone with a particular party and lots of people
Sam: actually would switch election from election. Not anymore.
Sam: Now that tribalism is a very strong part of what's going on.
Sam: But then beyond that, it's about vibes and emotion and feeling and that kind of thing.
Sam: And that is very, very susceptible to all of the stuff you're talking about,
Sam: even more so than sort of facts and policy and blah, blah, blah,
Sam: because you're not really trying to get people to agree on any sort of policy position.
Sam: You're just trying to pull the
Sam: right emotional strings you know
Sam: and and whether that's you know fear or hope or whatever you're it's it's about
Sam: like getting that emotional resonance that people feel like you're the one that's
Sam: speaking to them and how they feel about life.
Ivan: Look it's like the whole 20 plus years ago, James Carville had to,
Ivan: it's the economy, stupid thing, right?
Ivan: Here's the one thing. Back then, at least, one big difference was that if the
Ivan: economy was bad, everybody would acknowledge the economy was bad for the most part.
Ivan: It wasn't like the Republicans were trying to say, oh, no, no,
Ivan: no, the economy is great.
Ivan: They were like, no, yeah, no, we've got these issues, but we're going to do
Ivan: this to fix it, whatever.
Ivan: And the Democrats would say, well, we're going to do this to fix it.
Ivan: Right now, we have a completely different problem.
Ivan: Right now, like as a few polls that I've seen, poll people and say,
Ivan: hey, how are you doing economically? You.
Ivan: 70% of them say, we're doing great. Then you take that exact same sample.
Ivan: Hey, what do you think? How do you think the economy's doing?
Ivan: 70% of them say it's terrible.
Ivan: And you're like, what?
Ivan: How? It's the same group.
Ivan: And they, I mean, 70% of them say they're doing great.
Ivan: And then 70% say the economy is terrible. There, there could,
Ivan: if there isn't anything that can show you the massive effect of the fucking
Ivan: current propaganda environment that we're in, like right now,
Ivan: as that, there is no, no other data point that to me crystallized it.
Sam: The other one that immediately comes to mind for me is crime.
Sam: Oh, where every crime, where everybody, like, if you poll people,
Sam: crime is up. Crime is horrible.
Sam: Crime is like a big, huge problem that's worse than it's ever been before in their lives.
Sam: When in fact, there was a little bit of an upswing over the course of the pandemic
Sam: in a couple of years that we're mostly back down from.
Sam: But if you look decade over decade over decade, it's practically the safest
Sam: it's ever fucking been in the United States.
Sam: You know, maybe we're slightly up for Marlowe's a couple of years ago,
Sam: but it's slightly, you know, and, but that's not the perception.
Ivan: No, you know, you're like.
Sam: Oh,
Sam: same, same, same thing. Crime related. I just want to say people's perceptions
Sam: are, you know, the cities are hell escapes a cesspool of crime and the cities
Sam: are dangerous and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: If you actually look at it on a per capita basis, the cities are safer than rural areas.
Ivan: Yes, that's correct.
Sam: You know, I mean.
Ivan: Well, well, the problem also about immigration, right?
Ivan: Oh, my God. We're having more illegal immigrants than ever, Sam.
Ivan: Ever, ever, ever, ever.
Sam: Ever, ever, ever.
Ivan: No, no, we're not.
Sam: So, your butt first immediately started getting into actual things related to the election. I...
Sam: I almost want to skip mine so we can keep the election focused,
Sam: but I do want to briefly mention one thing, because I had an actual non-newsy but first.
Sam: The only relation to the...
Ivan: Well, mine was kind of... Well, you know, I was...
Ivan: Unfortunately, my but first, the issue was that it got kind of like got spun
Ivan: into an issue because of what the fuck is going on.
Sam: Yeah, yeah.
Ivan: Yeah, I'm sorry.
Sam: Okay, so the one relation I can give to the election is that because of what I'm about to mention,
Sam: I got like a day and a half behind on putting in data for election graphs.
Sam: And I caught up last night, actually, by the way.
Sam: I've only had two hours sleep last night. I finished catching up on the election
Sam: graphs poll, slept for actually, yeah, more like 90 minutes,
Sam: then got up and I'm doing this podcast.
Sam: So I'll probably crash again afterwards.
Sam: Yeah, we'll see. But no, I wanted to mention this.
Sam: My son, Alex, for years now, he's 15 now, probably since he was like seven or eight,
Sam: for his quote unquote Halloween costume,
Sam: has ridden around the neighborhood, pulled in a radio flyer wagon,
Sam: a heavy duty radio flyer wagon, that my wife, way back years ago,
Sam: dressed up as a train.
Sam: And the first version for one year was basically just cardboard.
Sam: The second year, it was more elaborate, sort of a more elaborate foam board
Sam: kind of thing and handcrafted by my wife. But,
Sam: My son has, and my son, you know, very much wanted to, this is what he wants every freaking year.
Sam: He wants the train. He doesn't want to do anything different.
Sam: He wants to do that. Okay.
Sam: And, but there's a little bit of a problem in that he's now six foot one.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: He does not fit into the train that my wife built him when he was seven.
Ivan: Probably. Okay.
Sam: And there are two problems. One was doesn't fit.
Sam: The other is that him plus the train are now heavy enough that pulling this thing is,
Sam: let's just say, at the absolute limits of my ability to pull even a short distance. Okay.
Sam: But here's the thing. and last
Sam: year last year well two years ago we
Sam: warned him like we won't be able to pull this thing anymore it's it's too
Sam: hard you barely fit in it we're you know
Sam: and and i can barely pull the thing but two years
Sam: ago we did take them around the neighborhood one year ago we stuck to our guns
Sam: and we're like no i can't can't do that i can't pull you around in this thing
Sam: you you don't really fit in it and you're too heavy and so we didn't pull them
Sam: around the neighborhood We took the train out and it was in our driveway.
Sam: All the trick-or-treaters could see the train, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: But I did not pull him around it.
Sam: He was devastatingly upset last year.
Sam: So he remembered this year, but not until a few weeks before Halloween that he wanted to do this.
Sam: And we kept saying, look, we're not pulling you.
Sam: We're not going to do this and you don't fit in the train. And so he started
Sam: probably a month before Halloween and,
Sam: wanting me to like move stuff around in the garage.
Sam: And I didn't understand exactly what, but I cooperated and every few days I'd
Sam: spend like an hour moving some stuff in their garage, going through some boxes.
Sam: It took me a couple of weeks of doing this before I realized that he was trying to A,
Sam: extract the train from where it was in the garage and to make room so he could work on the train.
Sam: Once I knew what he wanted, which of course he refused to communicate in any
Sam: way other than he wanted me to move stuff around in the garage,
Sam: I was able to extract the train and make room for in a few hours in one burst.
Sam: And then from that moment on, he wanted to work on the train.
Sam: He had us go to Lowe's. We got a whole bunch of supplies.
Sam: Like I'm talking lumber, tools, all this kind of stuff and he he would not communicate
Sam: his detailed plans to me he would not like say that.
Ivan: Makes it a lot easier.
Sam: No no he's just like you know he we go he would indicate that he wanted to go
Sam: to lowes we would go to lowes he would wander around lowes putting stuff into
Sam: the cart i have no idea what the various things are for i agree i realize it's
Sam: related to the train, but that's all I realized.
Sam: And I willing, you know, I let him spend a bunch of his own allowance money
Sam: and then I'm like, okay, fine.
Sam: I realize you're doing something. It's important to you. I'll put in some of my money too.
Sam: Because like this ended up being a few hundred dollars in the end of supplies
Sam: from Lowe's over several different trips.
Sam: But in any case, and I'm going to go through this quickly so we can get back
Sam: to election stuff, but he He ended up building...
Sam: A new version of the train designed to be a replica of the one that my wife made him years ago,
Sam: but scaled up so that it was big enough for him to get inside again.
Sam: Now, this, by the way, does not solve the weight problem. It,
Sam: in fact, makes the weight problem worse.
Sam: Because not only did he scale it up, but he also made it out of beefier materials.
Sam: So like stuff that was just foam board before now has a frame made out of lumber okay.
Ivan: Well you could have like uh you know what you
Ivan: need is uh some to find you know they have these like wheels that have these
Ivan: ball bearings that are super super super super slick yeah yeah you would need
Ivan: to find well the thing is set of those the thing is this is that basically make
Ivan: this thing like glide we I mean.
Sam: It's built off the regular radio flyer off the shelf thing.
Sam: Now it is the heavy duty one, but like replacing the wheels would,
Sam: it's not just you need wheels. You need the whole assembly to attach.
Ivan: You need the whole, yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sam: Now, another thing we've offered him, by the way, we offered him.
Sam: And the thing is, like the time to bring all this stuff up is not October before Halloween.
Sam: And I told him this previous years, it's like, if you want to do this,
Sam: like do it months in advance.
Sam: I've told my wife the same thing too, about like Halloween prep she wants to
Sam: do, but of course it always ends up in the last few hours.
Sam: But we offered like, hey,
Sam: instead of the radio flyer wagon that I have to drag around,
Sam: let's buy you a fucking go-kart to build this thing on top of that has an actual
Sam: engine that you can drive.
Sam: You know, you know that and one that's built for your size and weight. Right.
Sam: So that you and you build that and then you can build it on top of that.
Sam: And it would be and then, you know, you eliminate the problem.
Sam: Anyway, the bottom line, he spent for the last week before Halloween on the
Sam: order of close to 12 hours a day working on this freaking train between going to the store,
Sam: building stuff, cutting stuff, whatever.
Sam: Now, of course, I got roped into helping with lots of it. There were power tools involved.
Sam: I mean, he used the power tools. I used the power tools. There was cutting. I, I, I, I.
Ivan: I, this is really scary to hear that the both of you using power tools,
Ivan: because I don't really see that.
Ivan: I see more Alex, like inheriting your clumsiness with those things rather than your wife's aptitude.
Sam: Well, I'll tell you what he's got is he's got the, the, the creative handiness.
Sam: Like he designed this whole fucking thing and he had a plan from the very beginning.
Sam: Like it was unclear to me until it started coming together, but he clearly had
Sam: a detailed plan of exactly how this thing was going to be built.
Sam: Exactly what like parts he needed, exactly what tools he needed.
Sam: And you know, he had it all worked out in his head.
Sam: Um, okay. and so what.
Ivan: About the execution.
Sam: Uh it was good now the the people watching will not be able to see this but
Sam: i am going to send to the curmudgeon yeah listening the well even the people
Sam: watching on the live stream because i'm just i'm just going to text it to the
Sam: let's see do i still have this here,
Sam: paste. I'm going to have to do this. Hold on. I didn't have it.
Sam: This one's the right one.
Sam: Okay. So I just sent it to the random channel on the curmudgeons corner slack
Sam: for anybody who goes there and everybody else you're going to miss out.
Sam: Sorry. But anyway, so he succeeded.
Sam: He built this thing. Now he was a little, go ahead that's a choo-choo train yeah so it really.
Ivan: Looks like it.
Sam: It's a train it's got lights it's got whatever it's painted you know he did
Sam: all all the painting how long.
Ivan: Did this take.
Sam: Well he was working about 12 hours a day for a
Sam: week wow you know maybe not
Sam: quite that maybe eight hours a day for a week and it
Sam: wasn't all efficient time right like it wasn't
Sam: like non-stop go go go go go and sometime and
Sam: for most of it i was working along with him there were
Sam: lots of late nights there was whatever he didn't quite make
Sam: it in time for for trick-or-treat like we ended up this thing got finished i
Sam: would say about an hour after the last trick-or-treater came to our house okay
Sam: and close enough we got about we we got about 150 trick-or-treaters each time
Sam: around and it was busy and lots of people.
Sam: But so after he was finally done,
Sam: we wheeled the thing out and I did manage to pull this thing with him in it
Sam: from our house, up the driveway.
Sam: Two houses over, turn around, come back, and then go back down to driveway.
Sam: He was thrilled. He was happy. He accomplished his goal, even
Sam: though we didn't actually trick or treat at any houses or whatever because
Sam: all that was up all that it was late it
Sam: was over and look if one of the two houses right next to us had had like just
Sam: a bowl of candy left out for like anybody stragglers just take the candy we
Sam: would have done that but no now i will say me pulling at that distance what was roughly Yeah.
Sam: You know, I would pull for maybe 10 feet and then, and then I would like have to catch my breath.
Sam: I'd be leaning over and then like, and then try again after we went up and back,
Sam: like I sat in a chair in the freaking rain for 20 minutes to recover before
Sam: I like did anything else.
Sam: But anyway, I just wanted to point out he succeeded. He did his task.
Sam: He built a freaking train. Now it is basically like modeled in every single
Sam: detail after the old one my wife built, but just scaled up heftier, stronger materials,
Sam: all of that kind of stuff, which again, it solves the problem of him being able to fit in it.
Sam: It does not solve the problem of the combination is too heavy for me to pull around.
Sam: It's also probably over the weight limit of the wagon itself.
Sam: At any moment, I'm waiting for like it to collapse under the weight or for parts of it.
Sam: Like the little pull handle you pull the wagon with feels like it could break
Sam: off at any moment because it just can't handle pulling that much.
Sam: And the floor of the wagon feels like it could break too under his weight.
Sam: So I told him for next year, he has to motorize it.
Sam: Like if he's going to do this again next year, it must be motorized.
Sam: Okay, anyway, that was...
Ivan: Or like I said, you need to find lower friction.
Sam: Lower friction wheels. Yeah, well, the thing is he insisted too on building
Sam: it on top of the same wagon.
Sam: Like, you know, we offered like, let's get a new wagon that's built for more
Sam: weight and is intended for like this because they make they make heavier duty
Sam: ones that are made for like lugging hundreds of pounds of cargo or whatever, you know.
Ivan: Sure. I mean, that's how how do you think those people do that?
Ivan: Exactly. I mean, the wheels on those basically are extremely low friction wheels
Ivan: that allow, you know, somebody to be able that isn't, you know, Hulk Hogan.
Ivan: Oh, God, bad reference. Somebody very strong. Not that asshole.
Ivan: Okay. He's probably like, you know, probably not really as strong as he is. Yeah.
Ivan: You know, but it's a very strong. You don't have to be a very strong person
Ivan: to push a couple of hundred pounds.
Sam: Yeah, no, he insisted on building it on top of the same old platform that was
Sam: on before. I am hoping if he really wants to do this next year,
Sam: that he will be convinced to move to a motorized platform.
Sam: Like maybe what you're talking about, but ideally a motorized platform that he can.
Ivan: Ideally motorized, but yeah. But, you know, the one thing I will say is like,
Ivan: think about, you know, cars ride on those. Okay. Just to give an example.
Ivan: Okay. Because if you think about this, a car, most people on a flat surface can push a car.
Ivan: Now, why would that be? I mean, 4,000, 5,000 pounds, 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 pounds.
Ivan: It really is in large part, the biggest thing is because the bearings on which the wheels sit,
Ivan: are extremely low friction, okay? It allows for, you know, somebody,
Ivan: just a, usually, you know, a normal person putting enough force behind it can move a car.
Ivan: I mean, and you could move a car a pretty significant distance, by the way, okay?
Ivan: Just pushing it, okay? So that's what I'm saying.
Sam: Let me give you one thing.
Ivan: The wheels make a difference.
Sam: Let me give you one thing, and we'll wrap this up. I'll take the break,
Sam: and we'll start talking election.
Sam: But i will say along the
Sam: lines of you can push a car i will
Sam: say i i i we never got to
Sam: talk about it on a show but i did have an opportunity to deal with a situation
Sam: where my car had to be pushed a couple months ago and without going into detail
Sam: i was a dumbass i ran out of gas okay uh okay let's just surprise surprise just
Sam: but well it was the first time,
Sam: I had it on my topic list. I listed it as the Taco Bell incident,
Sam: but like it did not come up.
Sam: It did not come up on the show. We have other things going on.
Sam: But look, I was a dumbass. I ran out of gas. The car had to be pushed out of
Sam: the way while I waited to like get gas.
Ivan: Were you able to push the car?
Sam: Well, here's what I was going to say. Here is an important tip when trying to
Sam: push the car. Because of course I had the, you know, I was sitting in the driver's
Sam: seat and someone tried to push it.
Sam: Here's an important, important tip.
Ivan: Leave the ignition key on.
Sam: Well, no, I was going to say, not only do you need to put it in neutral,
Sam: but importantly, important tip, you must take your foot off the brake.
Ivan: No shit.
Sam: Which I did not do initially. So, and so it was like, we couldn't push it.
Ivan: We could no shit anyway.
Sam: Yes okay with that.
Ivan: Top another top tip for us if you're going to have somebody push you in the
Ivan: car lift your foot off the brake and that's the kind of quality analysis and
Ivan: insight that you get from a top quality show like curmudgeon's corner.
Sam: Exactly okay and.
Ivan: Yes and.
Sam: It's time for a break and i swear i didn't rig this because last time i played
Sam: And I was like, this is probably going to be the last time for four years.
Sam: But no, no, it came up randomly one last time.
Sam: So here comes the election graph
Sam: break. And then I'll give the update from election graphs back after this.
Break: Do you want to understand what is really going on with the presidential election cycle?
Break: Then go to electiongraphs.com right away.
Break: There you'll find charts and graphs covering the nomination processes in both
Break: parties and the general election race for electoral college votes.
Break: For the delegate races, we track not just delegate totals, but also the ever-important
Break: analysis of how each candidate has to do with the remaining delegates in order to actually win.
Break: For the Electoral College, we track state-by-state poll averages to categorize
Break: which states are actually in play and which are not in order to show you the
Break: range of likely electoral results and how that changes over time.
Break: Sure, you can get some of this stuff elsewhere, but not in exactly the same
Break: way. and not from me, Sam, your prime curmudgeon.
Break: I think my election trackers are better than the rest, so come look at mine, electiongraphs.com.
Sam: Okay, we are back. And so starting with the polling update, we are,
Sam: as we are recording this, let me refresh, get 3.3 days from the polls starting to close.
Sam: And oh first before anything else i
Sam: meant to say this at the beginning of the show but we yvonne and
Sam: i have agreed to do the live stream on election night again
Sam: so if you are interested in that mark your calendars and all of that kind of
Sam: stuff to come see like us yammer as election results come in youtube.com slash
Sam: at curmudgeons hyphen corner.
Sam: That'll get you there. And the live stream will show up there.
Sam: There'll also be an announcement posted on their curmudgeons corner Mastodon when we start.
Sam: But yeah, I think we will, my
Sam: plan is I will start the live stream approximately zero UTC that evening.
Sam: So on election night that is 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific.
Sam: And yeah, you'll get to hear Yvonne and I react in real time as results start to come in.
Sam: We'll see how that goes. And Yvonne, I don't know if you'll be able to join
Sam: at exactly that time, but that's when I'll start.
Ivan: I should be joined. I'm just, like I said before, I'm just not,
Ivan: right now, I'm just dreading this.
Sam: Whole thing.
Ivan: I i i just i.
Sam: So the poll update and then we'll take a break and then we'll talk about everything
Sam: else the the poll update really the summary is close to what and i said at the
Sam: very beginning of the show it is still too freaking close to call,
Sam: there are still let's see what's the current count yes we're we are back at all at,
Sam: Yeah, all seven, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
Sam: Well, six states under a 2% margin in my averages and seven under 2.5.
Sam: Arizona is at 2.1. So it's Trump ahead by 2.1.
Sam: And then there are a couple other close states. We now have New Hampshire in
Sam: the game where Harris only has a 3.3% lead in the average.
Sam: And there still hasn't been a second poll. there's still only been one freaking poll in Iowa.
Sam: And so it's still showing up in this swing state category. Although really,
Sam: I think it's probably not, but the one poll we had was remarkably close.
Sam: So maybe Iowa really isn't playing. I don't know. There's just not enough polling
Sam: to say for sure. I guess there were two polls.
Sam: Anyway, bottom line, we are still in the same damn situation.
Sam: If you trust the polls as they are, there is still a slight Trump advantage.
Sam: Like if, if with these averages as they exist, as we are recording right now,
Sam: uh, if you just gave every state to whoever's ahead by even the tiniest amount,
Sam: you would end up with Trump winning by 36 electoral votes.
Sam: Okay but that's tons of these
Sam: close states now if you assume as well like my models do right now that since
Sam: over the last four elections more often than not polls have underestimated the
Sam: republican then you give it even more to him you know as okay this is probably
Sam: a trump thing um but but yeah i.
Ivan: Will say what i will say one thing.
Sam: That i was thinking about this thing about us underestimating Trump.
Ivan: You know, I was thinking about this underestimating of Trump the last couple
Ivan: of years and what would be the reaction, say, if I'm a pollster, right?
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And I kept thinking, man, look, I keep having to think that we got this wrong.
Ivan: We're not going to do this a third time. We're going to, we're going to shift
Ivan: our model to, to be more on the other side. So we don't underestimate them anymore.
Ivan: And of course, the result of that could wind up being,
Ivan: The totally opposite of what they expect, because and in such a close election,
Ivan: it winds up mattering a lot.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: OK, is is the problem. And I keep thinking, man, if they got it,
Ivan: they under accounted him twice.
Ivan: There's no fucking way that they didn't compensate significantly on that side.
Ivan: There's no way. There's no way.
Ivan: I mean, that would be this normal human reaction.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: OK. Even if they're not explicitly saying it, I don't know.
Ivan: Look, I know myself, for example, as a financial analyst who kept doing forecasts all the time.
Ivan: And I remember a couple of times where I kept like either – that actually what
Ivan: I wound up doing was over forecasting, over forecasting, and we came in under.
Ivan: Believe me, after I did that a couple of times, you bet your ass that the next
Ivan: time around, I way under forecasted.
Ivan: And then we overshot that we kept overshooting it.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: And that was because that's human nature. You don't want to keep fucking,
Ivan: you know, hitting the number wrong.
Ivan: And so I, man, if, if there wasn't a significant moving of that in the other
Ivan: direction by all these pollsters, which either makes it two things,
Ivan: two, two possibilities out of this,
Ivan: A, they're right on the money, which means that, that, that in so many of these
Ivan: where Harris has this tiny margin, that's actually the right number.
Ivan: Okay. Or B, they're right on the money.
Ivan: They did it way over on the other direction, which means that they're way over
Ivan: counting Trump and Harris is really significantly ahead.
Ivan: Those are the only two possible outcomes I see based on this.
Ivan: Now, listen, do I have hard data that can show this?
Ivan: No, no, no, because there isn't because the margins are that small.
Sam: We'll find out in a couple of days.
Ivan: But we'll find out in a couple of days. But all I've got to go on is just too
Ivan: many years of seeing how humans react to this kind of mistakes of how the hell they reacted.
Ivan: Usually the way that they react is, well, shit, if we underestimated them the
Ivan: last two times, we're sure as hell not going to do it again.
Sam: Yeah, no, absolutely. There are a few indications. And to be clear,
Sam: either way, let's say there's a couple point error.
Sam: I mean, look, this is the whole reason I do this whole category of all the states
Sam: under 5%, assume they could go either way, right?
Sam: Because assume there's a systematic error of a few percentage in each direction.
Sam: That's where you get this range of outcomes.
Sam: At the moment, my range of quote-unquote reasonable outcomes saying that any
Sam: close state could go either way goes from Harris winning by 112 electoral votes
Sam: to Trump winning by 94 electoral votes.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Yes. If everybody wins the states they're ahead on, has Trump slightly ahead
Sam: of Biden right now, but really that whole range is possible.
Sam: Now I will be completely honest.
Sam: I would feel, oh, so much better if the straight poll average had Harris ahead,
Sam: even if it was a small amount, right? I would feel better if we did that.
Ivan: But look, but also, you know, you talked about last week, the analysis that
Ivan: you did on in terms of the number of shit polls that have been coming out.
Ivan: And there was an article this week also in the New York Times that specifically
Ivan: talked about this as well, how they have noticed this as well.
Sam: I think the effect this has is about a percent on the tipping point,
Sam: although that's going to vary day to day as the new polls come in and what's in and out.
Sam: I'm probably going to do another election graphs update this afternoon,
Sam: so after this is all recorded and done.
Sam: So go check electiongraphs.com on Sunday or something and see,
Sam: because I am going to repeat that analysis.
Sam: I did not repeat it in the most recent post I put out, but I will repeat it in the next one.
Sam: And probably also in the final, I'll probably do two more posts before election
Sam: results start to come in.
Sam: And I will include that analysis in both to see what that's doing.
Sam: But from the previous analysis, it was about a point. It was about one percentage point.
Sam: And when you, and if you move all the, if you move all the polls by a percent,
Sam: it makes a big difference.
Sam: Well, right now, this very second, if you moved all the polls 1% to the left,
Sam: it would only add Pennsylvania to Harris's totals, but that would be enough
Sam: to switch it from a Trump win to a Harris win.
Ivan: Exactly. I mean, that's it. This is how the ridiculously stupidly closest stupid
Ivan: thing is. This is just why it's just not.
Sam: I hate this thing and and i think and i think that we will know in a few days
Sam: but like i i feel i feel like,
Sam: you know my my my odds right now are giving harris let's see according to my models,
Sam: and and accounting for the fact that i trust the uniform swing run a little
Sam: bit better or the truth is closer to that one about a 25 chance a one in four
Sam: chance if like the polling errors are like they have been the last four years.
Sam: But I think there's a lot of good arguments for what you just said,
Sam: that the polling errors are probably the other direction this time around.
Sam: Now, I'm not putting that in my models. The models assume that the past is a
Sam: good predictor of the future.
Sam: But as they always say, you know, past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Ivan: You know, it goes back to the gambler's fallacy, man.
Sam: Yeah. So, okay.
Ivan: So, you know, it's like, hey, just, you know, hey, you know,
Ivan: oh, well, I didn't hit a six the last few times. I'm definitely,
Ivan: you know, the last 20 times.
Sam: I'm due.
Ivan: Yeah. My odds, I'm due for a six. No, no, you never are. No,
Ivan: the odds are still the same. Every damn time.
Sam: Well, the thing is with this kind of problem, though, the kinds of logic, it's not independent.
Sam: Like for the gambler's fallacy, it's each time is independent.
Sam: Like, but the argument you gave, wait, wait, the argument you gave is a prime
Sam: example why that's not the case.
Sam: There is an expectation you can build that it will be wrong in a certain way
Sam: because of what's happened in the past.
Sam: Now, sometimes it's like the intention of me using the last four elections was
Sam: sort of like, hey, over the course of four, and I intend next time around in
Sam: four years, I'll use five.
Sam: Like I was going to, the desired timeframe was five elections,
Sam: but I hadn't been doing this yet for five elections. So I had to use four.
Sam: But the idea is over the course of that much time, there'll probably be errors
Sam: in both directions. and you're basically measuring the magnitude of the variance and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And, you know, and it'll sort of wash out.
Sam: The reality of the last four election cycles is that if you average them out,
Sam: they've underestimated a Republican more than a Democrat. So that's the way it works this time.
Sam: But like, but yeah, it's not completely random, but it's still...
Sam: Yeah, maybe it's more likely, slightly, that they, all things being equal,
Sam: that the Republicans would be underestimated again, but all things aren't equal.
Sam: Right. Exactly. All of the things that you talked about before,
Sam: and I'll also add now that we do have the early voting tea leaves and bones
Sam: to shake and read like the entrails and all this kind of stuff.
Sam: Like the one thing, like most of the early vote stuff at this point, I discount.
Sam: Like they do partisan breakdowns, like how many Republicans have returned,
Sam: how many Democrats have returned, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: But that is impacted by a whole bunch of things.
Sam: That involves cases where you're just moving votes and like,
Sam: you know, people are early voting this time that that in person a day of voted
Sam: last time and the other way around. And so it washes out.
Sam: Also, you know, a big part of the Harris campaign is trying to appeal to Republicans.
Sam: So you may have registered Republicans voting for Harris at numbers that are unknown right now.
Sam: You know, and maybe some the other way, registered Democrats voting for Trump.
Sam: And so it's hard to read that into the partisan numbers, but we have had some
Sam: numbers on gender and age.
Sam: And those right now are looking really good for Harris in terms of women are
Sam: way overrepresented in those numbers.
Sam: The last numbers i saw were in terms of early vote it's like 55 45 women right now,
Sam: and women on all the other polling when you look at crosstabs the gender gap is huge this year,
Sam: and you know of course a lot of that is due to abortion a lot of that is just
Sam: you know donald Trump is a misogynist pig, you know?
Sam: And so you, you have that effect.
Sam: Now I did see one thing that showed in at least some States.
Sam: Yeah, it's 55, 45, but it was four years ago too.
Sam: Like apparently women just like early voting more than men, you know?
Sam: So maybe it's hard to read that it does look like younger people are,
Sam: are at higher percentages than normal as well.
Sam: They were really high in 2020 and 2022 as well, by the way.
Sam: But younger folks are also another demographic that is highly skewed to Democrats right now.
Sam: And so those, those all look good. So those all make me feel optimistic.
Ivan: I really hope.
Ivan: I, I, I, I, that young people turn out a lot more than they have before and
Ivan: not, and, and not with the bullshit that.
Sam: And no, no Jill Stein votes.
Ivan: Yeah. And, and I do think that from what, you know, we talk about vibes and
Ivan: we talk about what we hear.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: The vibes in this election are totally different than 2016 in terms of who the
Ivan: woman is at the top of the ticket.
Ivan: A lot of young, a lot of young people distrusted Hillary.
Sam: Well. Well, it's not just young people.
Sam: Remember, before she ran for president, there's been a campaign going decades
Sam: to vilify Hillary Clinton.
Ivan: But I'm talking specifically about the younger demographic.
Ivan: They did not see Hillary the way that they see Kamala.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Okay? There is a totally different vibe.
Ivan: And another thing, younger people in general, in these generations,
Ivan: have been far more known to publicly express their sexual orientation,
Ivan: their sexual preference, to know a lot more people that are transgender,
Ivan: that are gay, than previous generations.
Sam: Absolutely.
Ivan: And I really hope that they take that messaging that the GOP is doing,
Ivan: which is basically vilifying so many of them, so many of their friends,
Ivan: so many of their family.
Ivan: And understand how important it is to not allow somebody that wants to make
Ivan: their expression of their true self a crime.
Sam: Yeah. I mean, like for, I mean, and of course this is going to vary from red
Sam: state to blue state to purple state and from community to community,
Sam: but there are huge portions of that generation,
Sam: well over half, huge portions of that generation, that the fact this is even
Sam: a question is offensive to their core.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: You know, the fact that it's even being discussed as opposed to taken as the
Sam: absolute default that, of course, these people should be who they are.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: You know, and, and, you know, a whole bunch of the, this is why right now, the, that generation,
Sam: well, this is why, this is one of the reasons why that generation is skewed
Sam: highly Democrat right now.
Sam: Now at some
Sam: point presumably parties evolve and change and the republicans will evolve their
Sam: positions to something different in response to the public pressure but that's
Sam: not right now right now that's not right now right now they are doubling down
Sam: on all this stuff doubling doubling down.
Ivan: They're they're they're advocating violence against these people they're they're
Ivan: they're criminalizing being who they are and let's not forget about women's rights.
Sam: As well.
Ivan: Shit man there's a whole bunch of republicans this week talking about you know
Ivan: they want to get rid of the 13th amendment.
Sam: Well and and more i mean.
Ivan: They really they they they they wanted to eliminate the.
Sam: Women's right to vote there have been i was like
Sam: said that specifically there have been but even more
Sam: so this week what has been going around i mean is that
Sam: extreme is is the the harris campaign that built
Sam: off this was building on social media anyway but the harris
Sam: campaign actually put out an ad basically talking to women whose husbands were
Sam: diehard maga saying you know this is private you don't have to tell them you
Sam: know right you can vote for harris you know you don't have to tell them it's
Sam: private it's completely like whatever,
Sam: and a whole bunch of conservative men including high profile oh my god like
Sam: burst a gasket over this that the the mere conception that their wife might
Sam: not vote the way they want them to was throwing them into conniption fits.
Ivan: You know, it's so ridiculous. My mom and my dad, since I was very little, have not voted aligned.
Ivan: My mom in Puerto Rico voted for the statehood party.
Ivan: My dad voted for the party that wanted to remain in the current status quo. And that was a known...
Ivan: And by the way, those... Listen, those back then...
Ivan: It was so controversial. I mean, listen, this is the kind of stuff that erupted
Ivan: into violent fights, okay, in places.
Ivan: But my mom and dad showed me that, hey, you know what?
Ivan: You can't be, you know, now neither of those parties had positions like these psychopaths, okay?
Ivan: It was just about, you know, about the status of our political relationship with the United States.
Ivan: But they voted. it man my mom was very pro one party my dad was very pro the
Ivan: other party and that was perfectly fine that's okay when i hear people in 2024
Ivan: where i got raised in a family that had that happen regularly and i hear this
Ivan: and i am like well i mean i'm like what the hell well.
Sam: Look at this at this point by the way like i honestly see like a difference
Sam: of that sort like if you're if you're a diehard mega on one side of the couple
Sam: and on the other side of the couple you're like.
Ivan: I don't even know how the hell the thing is i'm like hard maga the diehard maga
Ivan: right now is holding positions that basically are that women have no value yeah
Ivan: like i and i i don't see how you i don't see how you i see.
Sam: This as a perfectly valid reason for divorce i mean this is what happened to george conway right.
Ivan: Yes but.
Sam: Like i don't see how that survives in unless you really like don't care much,
Sam: but if, but the point is, I see it as a legitimate reason to like dump your damn husband.
Sam: But the, the idea that the sort of the, the thing that is being openly expressed
Sam: by many of these conservative men is that I am the head of the household.
Sam: I am the leader. I get to decide what is happening here. And it is my wife's duty.
Sam: To vote the way i tell her to um you know uh what what's his name uh one of
Sam: the people on fox i forget which one it was waters uh waters waters said specifically
Sam: that if my wife was voting against my issues that's the same as cheating on me.
Ivan: Well let me let me break it to mr waters you know i know his mom despises his political.
Sam: Positions as well.
Ivan: And has openly said it on television, that basically his son is a fucking grifter loser.
Ivan: That's pretty bad. I'll tell you what, man, if I had my mom going out there
Ivan: calling me out that bad, you would think that you would be embarrassed, but that guy is just...
Sam: We need to move on to other things. So one more polling thing.
Ivan: Other things?
Sam: One more polling thing.
Ivan: One more polling thing.
Sam: You had talked about the potential effects, and we'll talk more about this in
Sam: the next segment, I'm sure, but potential effects of the Donald Trump rally
Sam: at Madison Square Garden.
Sam: And we'll talk about the actual rally later. I'm only going to talk about polling.
Sam: There has been a bunch of polls since then.
Sam: The effect was somewhat mixed in the polls, but overall,
Sam: it did seem like that caused
Sam: a significant approximately one
Sam: percentage point dip in the tipping point in
Sam: the days immediately after that event that in
Sam: in the polls afterward and by the
Sam: tipping point by the way this means primarily pennsylvania because
Sam: you know because pennsylvania has been the tipping point for the last week or
Sam: two yeah well occasionally other things but mostly pennsylvania pennsylvania
Sam: yeah like so it looks like about a one percent move because of that towards
Sam: harris but since then that's popped back up in the other direction,
Sam: back to almost where it was.
Sam: But, but, and I want to put this out there explicitly, it looks like.
Sam: That is due to a couple of outliers that I don't necessarily believe.
Sam: If you take them out, I think we're actually seeing approximately a 1% move
Sam: so far, and we may see more of a move as more polls come in.
Sam: Now, we have had a bunch of polls that are after that event.
Sam: However like it takes a
Sam: while for those like for those things
Sam: to soak in to everybody who might care
Sam: like there's some people who hear about it right away and change their minds
Sam: and blah blah blah but it takes a while to soak in so we still have three days
Sam: left we might see a little bit more of an effect from that like because because
Sam: i think here's one thing here's my bottom line i think there was a 1% effect from it.
Sam: That looks, it looks in the numbers that it's been reversed,
Sam: but I think that's due to outliers that probably aren't real. So there you go.
Ivan: Here's one thing about what I'm seeing about the effect of this.
Ivan: There was a poll down here in Florida where they pulled Puerto Ricans.
Ivan: They only pulled Puerto Ricans. They didn't pull Latinos, but they pulled Puerto Ricans.
Ivan: And there was a massive shift against Trump because I had mentioned before that
Ivan: puerto ricans had been like supporting trump in some 70 percent rate.
Sam: And by the way they're in florida there haven't been any polls that are entirely after this.
Ivan: Event now and so there is but but they did do a poll of puerto rican specifically
Ivan: to see that you know to track what the shift was it was a 20 shift amongst puerto
Ivan: ricans it was not a small shift and and and by and a 20 shift is a couple of
Ivan: hundred thousand votes it's not it's not in consequence Well.
Sam: Yeah, I was going to say, in Pennsylvania specifically, there are about 500,000 Puerto Ricans.
Ivan: Yeah, Puerto Ricans are going to be voters. Okay, right.
Sam: Yeah, Puerto Rican voters.
Ivan: Right. So it was a pretty significant shift.
Ivan: But there is one thing that I think probably polling is probably not able to
Ivan: capture, especially at this late time.
Sam: Yeah, because there's just not enough time.
Ivan: No, but it's not just, the thing is that there has been a lot of other Latino groups that had been,
Ivan: you know, they have talked about the effect that Trump was having in grabbing
Ivan: Latino voters and how he had been, you know, successful in grabbing them.
Ivan: This thing, the effect it had in Puerto Rico is there has been many other Latino
Ivan: groups that have also, I've seen the public...
Ivan: Messaging has been extremely supportive of Puerto Ricans in the face of this,
Ivan: how they have been in sympathy.
Ivan: So I would not be surprised that this isn't just, this thing didn't just have
Ivan: an impact in terms of Puerto Rican voters, which is a significant block, okay?
Ivan: The thing is that it's very misunderstood, okay, which is another issue, okay?
Ivan: But the fact that many, many of the other Latino groups, I would,
Ivan: based on what I've seen in the public comments, I've also had a shift.
Ivan: I am going to surmise that when you aggregate all the Latino groups,
Ivan: that this had a significant impact on their voting intention,
Ivan: okay? It was just that shocking of a statement.
Ivan: You know, very few, very, very few candidates I have seen, or campaigns in this
Ivan: case specifically, have made a statement that has been so polarizing to one group specifically.
Sam: Now, Yvonne, Trump says he had nothing to do with that. Even this morning,
Sam: he was saying he still hasn't even seen the joke.
Ivan: Uh-huh. Yeah, sure. Uh-huh.
Sam: Because it wasn't him, it was some jackass comedian, but his script was vetted by the campaign.
Sam: They made him take out a reference to Kamala. All being a cunt.
Sam: I was going to say the c word thank you ivan but yeah to kamala being yes they
Sam: they they made him take out that reference but leave all the other stuff in
Sam: so obviously at least someone on the campaign was like.
Ivan: Oh yeah porto ricans are garbage yeah yeah that's good uh yeah kamala being
Ivan: a cut uh no no no that's good no no no that's too far that's too far i'm like
Ivan: you know who the hell goes through that and it like arrives at such a fucking
Ivan: you know conclusion it's like just has to be the most.
Sam: Okay, okay.
Ivan: But anyway.
Sam: We're running out of time. We're running out of time before you have to go.
Sam: I'm going to run the next break, and then we will come back.
Sam: All I wanted to say on the polling for that event was it looked like about a
Sam: 1% effect before it reversed, but the reversal may be an illusion to the outliners. Maybe.
Sam: Anyway, here comes a break. It's a wiki of the day, and when we come back,
Sam: we'll power run through as much as we can get through before Yvonne has to leave. Here we go.
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Sam: Okay, one thing I forgot to say on the polling, just to, and I did this in my
Sam: last blog post on electiongraphs.com if you want to look at that.
Sam: But that was titled, what did I call it?
Sam: More of the same, six days out, more of the same. But I did an exercise where
Sam: instead of just looking at the current values,
Sam: I took all of the central seven states and just looked at the overall trends
Sam: and said, okay, if you actually trust the polling is roughly on,
Sam: but don't look at the current value, look at sort of where they've been bouncing
Sam: around and what's the center of that range.
Sam: Here's my take on where you'd be. I'd give Wisconsin, Michigan to Harris for sure.
Sam: I'd say Pennsylvania and Nevada are true toss up states.
Sam: And you probably end up giving Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to Trump.
Sam: If the polls are roughly on track, and you just take the center of the ranges
Sam: that they've been bouncing around on.
Sam: And if you do that, if they're in that order.
Sam: Nevada doesn't matter. It's too small. And guess what? It all comes down to Pennsylvania.
Ivan: Yeah. That's what I was thinking. It all fucking comes down to Pennsylvania.
Sam: If that's where it is. If the polls are systematically underestimating Harris, then Harris wins.
Sam: If the polls are systematically underestimating Trump, then Trump wins.
Sam: So there you go. That scenario that all comes down to Pennsylvania is the scenario
Sam: where the polls are roughly right.
Ivan: So let me get this clear, Sam.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: We don't know what the fuck is going on, and then we'll just bite our nails
Ivan: until the fucking night of the election.
Sam: That's right. That's right. And maybe the week of the election.
Sam: It might take a while to get results in key states if they really do.
Ivan: It might take a while.
Sam: And by the way, even the popular vote margin has narrowed.
Sam: So I fully expect Harris will win the popular vote no matter what.
Sam: But if it's really close, at first it will look like Trump is ahead in the popular vote.
Sam: And Harris will only catch up once California finishes counting the votes, which takes like weeks.
Ivan: Yeah, they're super slow.
Sam: Okay. So what else should we have? I do want to, there's more presidential stuff,
Sam: but I don't want to ignore, like, what are our final thoughts on the House and Senate?
Ivan: It's too close to call.
Sam: We also don't know. Same damn thing. We don't know.
Ivan: It's too close to call. I mean, I just, you know.
Sam: If I had to guess, my guess is the same as it was at our prediction show last December.
Sam: Democrats take back the House, but they lose the Senate. If I had to guess.
Sam: But these are also too close, and it depends on if they're all too close to call. And if Polo.
Ivan: They're all too effing close to call. I mean, look, you know what I was talking
Ivan: about, you know, and some of the coattails related to some of the stuff.
Ivan: You know, I don't know, man. I don't know.
Ivan: You know, Ted Cruz is a deeply unpopular guy. Ted Cruz is unpopular amongst Republicans.
Ivan: And the guy who's been running against them has been running a very good campaign
Ivan: and that campaign was close that
Ivan: fan pain was in close i mean a lot closer than it would be with the same,
Ivan: republican okay it always say if i would put mitt romney in texas okay he would
Ivan: probably be ahead by 15 points okay but instead it's ted cruz and so you've
Ivan: got this this nail biter the same in florida But look,
Ivan: some of the recent polls had Rick Scott ahead by four.
Ivan: Rick Scott isn't as hated as Ted Cruz, but man, that guy is not loved either.
Ivan: There is no, you know, passionate Rick Scott supporters don't really exist.
Ivan: Okay. The guy is just one of these like real weasels.
Ivan: And it's just, you know, he managed to win.
Ivan: The 2018 by less than 20,000 votes.
Ivan: It was super thin. It was paper thin, the margin.
Ivan: He has a woman running against him. There's an abortion thing on the ballot.
Ivan: Rick Scott this week was scrambling to disassociate himself to all the Puerto
Ivan: Rico is garbage comments this week.
Ivan: Because he knows that this can be close because he's lived it before.
Ivan: And so I don't know. But, I mean, given how the state has been,
Ivan: I mean, you have to give the edge to Scott there.
Ivan: I just don't, I don't know. I don't know.
Ivan: Look, in 2020, we thought that we wouldn't get a single Georgia seat.
Sam: Right. And you ended up with two.
Ivan: And we got, and we ended up with two. So that's the whole thing about this.
Ivan: The data tells you that the odds are stacked against the Democrats,
Ivan: but at the same time, that's what we thought four years ago,
Ivan: and it turned out that, well, we got the Senate.
Sam: Well, I think there is potentially a coattails effect here, right?
Sam: If we, in fact, if polls are systematically understating Harris, Kamala.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: I've been saying Harris because I keep messing up her first name. Sorry.
Sam: But if the polls are systematically underestimating her and she's actually doing
Sam: strongly in all of these states, then that there may be Senate coattails that go along with that.
Sam: On the other hand, if they're underestimating Trump again, remember what happened
Sam: to the Senate races four years ago.
Sam: Like we thought like Lindsey Graham was in danger.
Sam: We, you know, there are a whole bunch of Republican senators we thought were
Sam: in danger that it was going to be close. It was going to be way closer than it had been in the past.
Sam: And instead, the Republicans handily won those races. It wasn't close.
Ivan: Yeah, but we won Arizona.
Sam: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ivan: But there were counters to that. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.
Ivan: I mean, we had a number of those that turned the other way.
Ivan: And it's just because it's so close. So therefore, it's like,
Ivan: I wouldn't be surprised by any of the outcomes like right now at this point
Ivan: in the Senate. But I just would not.
Sam: And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome in the House either.
Sam: Although I think the Democrats have a stronger case there.
Sam: But again, the same effects make this close too and could go either way.
Sam: Okay, we got the House and the Senate.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And we've talked the presidential to death.
Sam: A final prediction for me. I'm going to say, despite what my models say,
Sam: that she only has a 25% chance, I'm going to say Harris pulls it out and wins.
Sam: And maybe it's not even close. Maybe she wins easily. But I'll be fully honest.
Sam: A lot of this is my hope speaking.
Sam: Like i i have reasons that seem rational to do that but maybe i'm like i'm trying
Sam: to find the reasons to get the answer i want but i'm gonna predict harris wins
Sam: because frankly the alternative is really bad you know i well.
Ivan: I i'm gonna go with like look i'm not gonna make any.
Sam: Predictions right.
Ivan: Now uh i i i i sincerely hope that harris wins but my prediction already for this year i I already.
Sam: Lost.
Ivan: Well, that was pain was one.
Sam: Fidel Castro will die.
Ivan: Always.
Sam: Again.
Ivan: Fidel Castro will die again. Okay. I think he's still dead. But I believe,
Ivan: I predicted that Biden would win.
Ivan: Obviously, already wrong. I already lost.
Sam: My prediction.
Ivan: I don't think I'm allowed. I don't think I'm allowed.
Sam: No substitution.
Ivan: No, I said, but no substitution. So I already lost that prediction.
Sam: My prediction was Trump was going to win back from in December.
Sam: I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong.
Ivan: I, you know, so I, I'm already lost on that one.
Ivan: I am, you know, I am really hoping that, you know, that, that, that Trump loses.
Ivan: I don't know if that's going to happen.
Ivan: I i don't know what's going to happen all i know is what i hope is going to
Ivan: happen that's all okay and in other news just to just to provide an update because
Ivan: we used to go to this restaurant very much okay newsflash just came in fridays
Ivan: file for break fridays file for break yep i see.
Sam: It on my screen right now too.
Ivan: It just popped up in the news you know and man we used to go very we talked.
Sam: We talked a little while ago about like uh the closest one to me and i got it
Sam: wrong and then we looked it up and the closest one to me is.
Ivan: Spokane. The Chili's.
Sam: Oh, that was Chili's? No, that was Chili's. No, no, it was about Chili's.
Sam: Oh, that was Chili's. You're right, you're right. That wasn't Friday's.
Sam: But yeah, Friday's, Friday's filing for bankruptcy. Now, filing for bankruptcy
Sam: does not mean necessarily that all the stores will disappear. They might.
Ivan: But they've been doing terribly for a long, long time.
Ivan: I think that many of the restaurant chains that have been doing poorly before
Ivan: the pandemic with all the changes that happened.
Ivan: It just really, if they were like.
Sam: Okay, you got to go soon. Let's finish up the election stuff.
Sam: Because you got to leave very soon.
Ivan: Well, sorry, but we had a- Breaking news.
Sam: Breaking news. It's important.
Ivan: Breaking news.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Isn't that the place that Rebecca threatened Pete with a knife?
Sam: I don't know.
Ivan: Well, anyway, Pete, if he listens to this, I think it was Rebecca that threatened Pete with a knife.
Sam: Out of Friday.
Ivan: Not somewhere i think it was a fridays i think it was at a fridays that's it
Ivan: yeah well this is the kind of stuff that happened we're in college and drunk sorry.
Sam: Yeah okay anyway anyway,
Sam: And anything more about the Madison Square Garden Nazi slash Klan rally that
Sam: had there? I mean, aside from Puerto Rico comment.
Ivan: Aside from aside from that, you know, the thing is that what that probably wasn't
Ivan: even the most offensive thing that happened as far as I could tell.
Sam: It just happened to be the one that Greg on our Commudgeon's Corner Slack just
Sam: pointed out, in addition to the PR garbage, it had somebody who called Harris the Antichrist.
Ivan: Harris.
Sam: Tucker made a racist statement about her as well.
Sam: There were practically, oh, and Giuliani said some really unhinged stuff there too.
Sam: It was just the whole thing. I've seen people describe it as just,
Sam: it was just a hate speech event from beginning to end practically.
Sam: It was alienating to anybody who is not a straight white male Christian,
Sam: like, was pushed away by that.
Ivan: I try to see if I can find somebody summarizing all the things,
Ivan: the offensive things that happened, but, you know, I haven't found it yet.
Ivan: But it's just, but I, you know, you know, but there were just,
Ivan: somebody said msg rallies right sets a bar not as bad as hitler.
Ivan: This is this is this is the bar at or or at you know it's just i i,
Ivan: you know i don't know what what what to say about this it's just you know when that's the bar,
Ivan: oh it's just i i just you
Ivan: know it's just crazy i mean this is the bar
Ivan: that we're at this is you know oh
Ivan: oh oh yeah i i mean and by
Ivan: the way i you know they say
Ivan: it's not as bad as hitler but mass deportations
Ivan: you know was a big part of
Ivan: what hitler did now he's not he's not saying that they're going
Ivan: to get sent to you know the gas chambers maybe that's about the only thing that
Ivan: we he's not he hasn't purported that he's going to set up gas chambers but but
Ivan: hey you know don't put it past them um yeah i mean he didn't want he didn't
Ivan: want a firing squad for for liz cheney this week well.
Sam: And in terms of the deportation they they've explicitly said they want like
Sam: camps to put these people in before they can deport them.
Ivan: And what.
Sam: The hell you're and you're talking millions of people that they want to do.
Ivan: And by the way concentration camps okay good and and and.
Sam: Basically and by the way they've made it clear at this point that they're not
Sam: just talking illegal immigrants, there's a significant chunk of legal immigrants
Sam: that they want to deport to.
Ivan: Correct.
Sam: They want to revoke their immigration status and send them the hell out of here.
Sam: And they've previously made statements. They want to get rid of birthright citizenship as well.
Ivan: Correct.
Sam: You know, so it's not even legal and illegal.
Sam: It's not just illegal immigrants. It's not just legal immigrants.
Sam: It's also people who are born citizens but they don't think you had the right parents.
Ivan: Yeah you don't have the right parents that's right.
Sam: And and so yeah this is okay uh at the at the rally one other thing trump made
Sam: a comment about some sort of secret plan he had with speaker johnson.
Ivan: Oh here's one here's a good one i found hinge one other hinge clip go hey when
Ivan: it comes to israel and palace by the way i am quoting a joke i do not endorse
Ivan: this joke i want to be clear,
Ivan: I think it's I think it's disgusting when it comes to Israel and Palestine we're
Ivan: all thinking the same thing send all your stuff already best out of three rock
Ivan: paper scissors you know Palestinians will throw a rock every time and also we
Ivan: know Jews have a hard time throwing that paper,
Ivan: you know these are the kind of i saw one person and and these latinos they love
Ivan: this is they some other speaker and these latinos they love making babies too
Ivan: just know that they do they do there's no pulling out they don't do that they
Ivan: come inside just like they did to our country i.
Sam: Think that was the same guy actually.
Ivan: I don't know if that's the same guys like i guess it kind of looks like the
Ivan: same guy well it's got an asshole face i saw one person say that she's some
Ivan: Some sick bastard that Hillary Clinton.
Ivan: What a sick son of a bitch. The whole fucking party. A bunch of degenerates,
Ivan: low-life Jew haters, and low-lifes. Every one of them. Every one of them. Let's see.
Ivan: Da-da-da. America. Steve Miller. America is for Americans, and Americans only. Steve Miller.
Ivan: Let's see. Grant Cardone. Grant Cardone calls Mark Cuban a simp and says Kamala has pimp handlers.
Ivan: He then says of Democrats, we need to slaughter those other people.
Sam: Okay. We get, we get the point. I saw one person try to say,
Sam: I don't know how serious they were, but basically that one comedian,
Sam: like half of the things you read were from that one comedian.
Sam: Like that he was actually, he, he must actually be a plant that is trying to
Sam: make them look bad and hurt them.
Sam: Uh, I don't think so. I think he met every single one of those things.
Ivan: You know it's a sam it's this whole thing where there
Ivan: is there is a very big divide amongst comedians right now
Ivan: related to this and you and i talked about this a
Ivan: while back where one of the things that what why we don't support this kind
Ivan: i don't support this kind of comp more i thought like maybe 30 years ago ha
Ivan: ha ha they were they were just trying to make jokes whatever is that we've i
Ivan: i have come and and you as well to the realization these guys yeah never they actually mean.
Sam: They're using, oh, it's a joke as a cover to say what they actually believe.
Ivan: As a cover to say what they actually believe. Exactly. So no.
Ivan: No. These guys are not joking. And that's the problem.
Ivan: And there have been some,
Ivan: this has created a significant divide amongst the comedian community where some
Ivan: comedians will defend this guy but some others that have been around and said
Ivan: listen stop the bullshit these guys really mean it they're using comedy as a
Ivan: way to hide you know which is you realize you gotta you gotta stop giving them any slack yeah.
Sam: I i mean vance said people need to get over it and not be so offended by every little thing.
Ivan: Oh yeah i mean and they got offended by by by a a made up By them taking comment
Ivan: that Biden did, okay, and framing it differently and saying that he called them garbage.
Ivan: And they're all like, oh, my God, look, I call me garbage.
Ivan: Oh, my God, Jesus Christ.
Ivan: These Democrats, they're getting me. I'm like, you know, they love to have it
Ivan: both ways every fucking time. I'm sick and tired of them.
Sam: Yeah, just to be clear, this was Biden says what he said was that the only garbage
Sam: he saw was Trump's supporters, supporter apostrophe S garbage,
Sam: speaking about the comedian spewing garbage.
Ivan: Correct.
Sam: But of course, this was taken as Trump supporters are garbage,
Sam: which took over the media cycle right when all of the stuff about Madison Square Garden.
Sam: Yeah, for a short amount of time. But like maybe that little reversal I saw
Sam: wasn't like fake outliers.
Sam: It's really like a reversal based on like people stopped talking about Madison
Sam: Square Garden and started talking about this.
Sam: I don't know. But like we'll see what the next few polls say.
Sam: We've got time for a couple more polls before the election.
Sam: But the bottom line, though, is I think anybody who is pushing that narrative
Sam: was completely disingenuous.
Sam: But at the same time, like for 24 hours, everybody was talking about this Joe
Sam: Biden gaffe and how it changed everything and blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: And it pissed me off. The worst thing is that people that are Democrats were
Ivan: saying it was a gaffe instead of like, no, that's not what he said.
Ivan: I heard it specifically.
Ivan: It's not what he said. And you guys are saying that he's made a gaffe when he
Ivan: didn't. That's not what he said. Damn it.
Sam: And so Harris had to distance herself from it and say, look,
Sam: I would never say anything about that based on how people vote, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: I will, though. Trump supporters are garbage. Sorry.
Ivan: I will, too. Some Trump supporters are garbage. Fuck. Fuck. OK.
Ivan: All right. But Biden didn't say that because he's a much classier guy than I am.
Sam: Yeah. There you go. OK. All right.
Ivan: We got to go.
Sam: I know the Trump Johnson secret. I think if basically this is being assumed
Sam: to be as if the house goes Republican again,
Sam: that Johnson will use his powers to try to gum up the works on this January 6th.
Sam: In a way that did not succeed last time around, but they'll try again.
Sam: That's how it's being interpreted.
Sam: And I will say also on that there's massive setting the stage for that,
Sam: because while on all of the sort of mainstream and liberal media,
Sam: everybody is like, we have been today.
Sam: It's too close to call. It's too close to call. It's too close to call.
Sam: If you go on any conservative media whatsoever.
Ivan: They're saying that Trump is winning.
Sam: That Trump is winning. He's got it in the bag. It's not even going to be close.
Sam: Trump's ahead. And all of that is setting up the narrative that if Harris quote
Sam: unquote wins, it's because she cheated and it's stolen and there's shenanigans
Sam: and it's setting up to repeat what we'd had four years ago.
Sam: Um, that's exactly right. Uh, Bruce asked if there was an October surprise this time around.
Sam: If so, what I would say there've been attempts at an October surprise,
Sam: but none that have really been there.
Sam: If the Madison square Garden is the closest thing there
Sam: is to an October surprise to Trump's October
Sam: surprising himself but really self but yeah
Sam: basically but but honestly I don't think there's been a successful October surprise
Sam: there is no Comey letter this time around no um no uh we have the tide of Harrison
Sam: endorsements after Madison Square Garden we talked about the vibes the European
Sam: Green parties asked Jill Stein to drop out.
Sam: Of course, she's not going to end. It's too late anyway, even if she did.
Sam: And that's the end of our list.
Ivan: So that's the end of the list.
Sam: So I will remind people again, we will be live streaming election night.
Sam: So zero UTC as polls are closing, which is 8 p.m.
Sam: Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific U.S. time. We will be live streaming.
Sam: The place to go look for that is...
Sam: Youtube.com slash at sign curmudgeons hyphen corner.
Sam: Go there for our live stream. We will be on for hours while we watch the stuff come in.
Sam: We'll probably include a shortened edited down version of that at the end of
Sam: our next actual show, which we will record at the usual time later in the week.
Sam: Otherwise, curmudgeons hyphen corner.com. You can find our transcripts,
Sam: links to all the ways to contact us, a link to our Patreon where you can give us money.
Sam: At various levels. We'll send you a postcard, a mug.
Sam: We'll mention you on the show, all that kind of stuff at $2 a month or more.
Sam: Or if you just ask, we will invite you to our Commissions Corner Slack where
Sam: you can hang out with Yvonne and I and other listeners to share links and chat
Sam: and all that kind of stuff.
Sam: I'm assuming you don't have time for a highlight from the Slack, right, Yvonne?
Ivan: Gosh.
Ivan: No, no, no.
Sam: No. And so that's it. Uh, next time we talk, well, if you listen to the live
Sam: stream, you'll hear our reactions live for election night.
Sam: Otherwise our next regular show will be after the election.
Sam: In the meantime, check election graphs.com daily for my poll updates and check the blog section.
Sam: I'll probably do two more blog posts before election night with updates.
Sam: And that's it. Hey, good luck, everybody.
Sam: If you haven't voted yet and you are going to vote for Harris,
Sam: please go vote if you're going to vote for Donald Trump, go fuck yourself and leave yeah,
Sam: sorry the same, yes okay, and that's it good luck, have a great week stay safe,
Sam: vote blah blah blah, here comes the outro, are you ready to say goodbye Yvonne?
Ivan: Bye bye Okay.
Sam: Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye. One more goodbye from Yorban.
Ivan: Bye.
Sam: Okay, I'm off to put in all the polls that have come in while we were recording.
Sam: There were like a half dozen. Okay, bye, Vaughn.
Ivan: Bye.
Sam: Here comes the stop button.
Ivan: Okay, go, go, go.