WEBVTT 00:00:00.730 --> 00:00:04.630 Greetings, Mr. Bo. Hold on, let me make sure the singe is singing. 00:00:05.890 --> 00:00:07.530 Greetings and salutations. 00:00:08.490 --> 00:00:09.410 Whoa, echo. 00:00:10.050 --> 00:00:14.110 No, no, I'm very far from the microphone. There we go. Now, greetings and salutations. There we go. 00:00:14.670 --> 00:00:16.650 Do you have another hard stop this week or no? 00:00:16.950 --> 00:00:17.350 Yes. 00:00:18.030 --> 00:00:18.530 Same time? 00:00:18.590 --> 00:00:19.370 Same. Same. 00:00:19.490 --> 00:00:19.670 Okay. 00:00:19.810 --> 00:00:24.370 Same. All same, because I got to take my new month. So everything is the same. Yeah. 00:00:25.110 --> 00:00:28.190 Hold on. I just did something stupid. Okay, there we go. 00:00:29.070 --> 00:00:36.410 Sorry. me this wasn't there we go hit the button okay let's start this and just go, 00:00:37.470 --> 00:00:45.470 ready for me to hit the button hit the button long ago ready okay come on, 00:01:08.250 --> 00:01:18.290 welcome to curmudgeon's corner for saturday november 2nd 2024 it is 1507 utc 00:01:18.290 --> 00:01:23.270 as we're starting to record this so once again it's an 8 a.m morning call for 00:01:23.270 --> 00:01:25.770 me 11 a.m i guess for yvonne, 00:01:26.930 --> 00:01:29.990 And, yeah, I'm Sam Menter, Yvonne Bowes here, Curmudgeon's Corner, 00:01:30.150 --> 00:01:30.930 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:01:31.450 --> 00:01:32.310 Blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:01:32.790 --> 00:01:36.550 This is our last show before the election, Yvonne. 00:01:37.610 --> 00:01:41.370 Yvonne, once again, has a hard stop. So this will be a shorter show than normal. 00:01:41.410 --> 00:01:44.130 And we're going to sort of try to rush through things. 00:01:44.310 --> 00:01:48.450 Our normal structure is this. But first, I don't know how much we'll do in order 00:01:48.450 --> 00:01:49.470 to save time today, maybe. 00:01:49.670 --> 00:01:54.870 But then after that, look, it'll be all election stuff. 00:01:54.870 --> 00:01:56.910 I'll be you know i'll. 00:01:56.910 --> 00:02:02.090 I'll do an update on polls and then we'll talk about everything else but that's the plan. 00:02:02.090 --> 00:02:09.630 That's the plan that's it's a plan you know so uh i mentioned i i think i mentioned 00:02:09.630 --> 00:02:17.250 on the slack that and i've noticed this is elections approach in the last couple 00:02:17.250 --> 00:02:22.050 of presidential cycles where basically I, you know, 00:02:22.950 --> 00:02:31.770 almost everything that involves people talking, even if it's, 00:02:31.910 --> 00:02:39.670 if I tune into a business show or a podcast of some other nature or program, 00:02:40.110 --> 00:02:43.150 people start talking about the election. 00:02:43.610 --> 00:02:46.270 One thing that I realized is that, 00:02:47.250 --> 00:02:50.870 I mean, a long, long time ago, not recently, 00:02:50.870 --> 00:02:58.930 I pretty much got fed up with most of the public talk on any of these subjects 00:02:58.930 --> 00:03:05.530 because it involves a lot of people that just have no clue about anything. 00:03:06.150 --> 00:03:09.890 And all it does is, for the most part, just aggravate me. 00:03:10.230 --> 00:03:10.870 Okay. 00:03:10.870 --> 00:03:18.250 And it becomes far more aggravating as we close in on an election like this. 00:03:18.250 --> 00:03:23.610 And these last elections have been far more aggravating than any other elections 00:03:23.610 --> 00:03:26.210 that I have ever lived through. 00:03:27.930 --> 00:03:34.190 And so, like, this week, I wound up getting in a rental car, 00:03:34.410 --> 00:03:38.590 or I was, and choosing to absolutely just... 00:03:38.590 --> 00:03:43.350 I didn't want to hear anything in the car, which is not normal. 00:03:43.350 --> 00:03:46.610 I usually would be playing music, something or whatever. And I was just like, 00:03:46.710 --> 00:03:48.110 okay, just turn it all off. 00:03:48.210 --> 00:03:52.470 I don't want to, I don't want to hear anybody talking. I don't want to hear 00:03:52.470 --> 00:03:54.590 any music. I just, I don't want to hear anything. 00:03:56.370 --> 00:04:01.530 And I will give credit to ESPN for one thing. 00:04:02.330 --> 00:04:08.490 A few years ago, they got into some issues with some announcers that decided, 00:04:08.590 --> 00:04:12.910 that they wanted to talk about politics during sports. 00:04:13.610 --> 00:04:17.410 And you can debate whatever the merits of what ESPN was doing or not, 00:04:17.410 --> 00:04:20.090 because they actually reprimanded a few of them. Some of them quit, 00:04:20.230 --> 00:04:21.190 some of them left or whatever. 00:04:21.690 --> 00:04:28.730 But one thing that I could do to watch something where people would actually 00:04:28.730 --> 00:04:34.830 act like the election doesn't exist was to tune into ESPN. 00:04:34.830 --> 00:04:42.050 And they reliably, regardless who was on, it was like it didn't exist. 00:04:42.350 --> 00:04:52.070 And so I don't really watch ESPN that much anymore because or because one of 00:04:52.070 --> 00:04:55.590 the things that's happened with the current media landscape is you can get so 00:04:55.590 --> 00:04:59.230 much other and probably more. 00:05:00.440 --> 00:05:06.260 Attuned to your tastes information from a whole bunch of other sources. Okay. 00:05:07.060 --> 00:05:11.940 And so, you know, it used to be that 20, 30 years ago, if you wanted to find 00:05:11.940 --> 00:05:16.300 out what was going on in sports, the only place you could really go to was ESPN. 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:21.860 I mean, because they were like the worldwide leader, but now there's so many 00:05:21.860 --> 00:05:26.560 little websites, podcasts, this YouTube, whatever. 00:05:26.920 --> 00:05:31.200 There's quite a lot of very creative people on YouTube doing some fun content 00:05:31.200 --> 00:05:35.800 and sports and whatnot, you know, that I can just get whatever the heck I want without, 00:05:36.100 --> 00:05:40.240 in the style I want, and probably focused on specifically what I want to find 00:05:40.240 --> 00:05:44.500 out is going on, without having to go through a lot of other generic information, 00:05:44.500 --> 00:05:47.640 which a channel with large, 00:05:47.900 --> 00:05:52.640 not just national, includes a global audience, even though they have like European 00:05:52.640 --> 00:05:56.540 ESPN, they have ESPN in Espanol, They have other versions, but, 00:05:56.560 --> 00:05:59.760 but that channel is played in many places in the world. 00:05:59.960 --> 00:06:02.960 It's got to be far more generic. And so that's the one thing about that. 00:06:03.460 --> 00:06:09.660 But I could tune in to ESPN this week and listen to not one mention, 00:06:09.920 --> 00:06:14.980 not one of anything that was happening in the election. I was like, oh, this is good. 00:06:15.660 --> 00:06:21.680 I mean, because right now all we're doing, including us at this point, mind you, is. 00:06:22.320 --> 00:06:27.220 Is repeating over and over and over. It's too close to call and we'll see what 00:06:27.220 --> 00:06:35.160 happens on election night and trying to read meaning into little bits of noisy data that like. 00:06:35.220 --> 00:06:42.160 You know, yeah, we're going, look, look, there's a 0.01 move here and another little one there. 00:06:42.380 --> 00:06:45.420 And oh my God, who's the pollster that came into the thing? 00:06:45.540 --> 00:06:49.480 Oh, and here's some early vote numbers that may or may not mean anything. 00:06:49.480 --> 00:06:52.320 Oh, may not mean anything. Look, look, look, you've got, oh my God, 00:06:52.440 --> 00:06:54.140 look at the numbers and the turnout. 00:06:54.220 --> 00:06:58.080 Out like, hey, Sam, you know, 50% of the people in Florida have already voted. 00:06:58.280 --> 00:06:59.120 Does that mean anything? 00:07:00.240 --> 00:07:00.620 Maybe. 00:07:04.520 --> 00:07:11.900 You know, I, it's, it's, it's down to just, you know, such by douche. 00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:17.160 So that was the one thing I was doing. The second thing is my wife is working early voting. 00:07:17.640 --> 00:07:23.820 Okay. So she has done this now. It's, it's early voting will be finished in 00:07:23.820 --> 00:07:26.600 Florida on Sunday before the election. 00:07:26.740 --> 00:07:30.320 Monday, no, no voting. Then, then Tuesday, the poll. 00:07:30.320 --> 00:07:36.140 So at least one thing is that they've had already about 50% of registered voters 00:07:36.140 --> 00:07:42.080 turn out at this point, but, but that still leaves quite a lot of people to turn out on Tuesday. 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:46.240 Yeah. So, so that leaves that, that big a number. 00:07:46.400 --> 00:07:49.640 Well, one of the things is that because my wife was out of town, 00:07:49.780 --> 00:07:52.320 she actually asked her aunt, but because I, because my wife, 00:07:52.480 --> 00:07:59.100 I'm not out of town because she's been working and I have had to go out of town for a couple of days. 00:07:59.100 --> 00:08:02.720 My wife's aunt from colombia uh 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:05.480 came and has stayed with us to help us help us with 00:08:05.480 --> 00:08:09.100 mon okay um since since that's 00:08:09.100 --> 00:08:14.300 been going on one interesting thing i asked her yesterday because i wanted to 00:08:14.300 --> 00:08:20.880 get her take she has not been she's rarely visited the u.s in recent decades 00:08:20.880 --> 00:08:25.860 okay she she she did live in the uk for many years but has lived in colombia 00:08:25.860 --> 00:08:29.020 most of her life and one of the interesting things that I had, 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:32.820 she's around 70-something years old, was, 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:37.380 okay, what was the impression that you had of what you expected to see when 00:08:37.380 --> 00:08:40.280 you came to Florida versus, 00:08:40.760 --> 00:08:45.640 you know, what is it that you've seen versus what you thought in your head, okay? 00:08:46.140 --> 00:08:50.660 Or would you be based on what you heard? I will say that there was one very 00:08:50.660 --> 00:08:55.720 interesting thing, and it revolves around immigrants, especially about Hispanic immigrants. 00:08:55.720 --> 00:09:00.440 Because as you know, there is so much propaganda going around of what's going 00:09:00.440 --> 00:09:02.400 on with immigration in the U.S. 00:09:03.060 --> 00:09:07.080 And from a lot of what she had heard, she's a very well-educated person, by the way. 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:12.140 Okay, so this isn't, you know, this is just the reality is of where she gets 00:09:12.140 --> 00:09:15.240 her news and what she sees. It's just, you know, what she hears. 00:09:15.560 --> 00:09:19.180 You know, always perception is not reality. I mean, I remember when I came to the U.S. 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:22.820 For the first time, what I thought that I would see versus what you see in reality 00:09:22.820 --> 00:09:27.840 is always different. And so for me, I wanted to see what she heard. 00:09:28.040 --> 00:09:35.160 And one thing is that she admitted, look, this comes from the fact that I hadn't been here. 00:09:35.780 --> 00:09:41.400 Well, I hadn't been in Florida, period. I expected that I would see all these 00:09:41.400 --> 00:09:46.980 Latino immigrants all over the place, like on street corners and everywhere begging them. 00:09:47.590 --> 00:09:50.370 Like like homeless like harassing people because of 00:09:50.370 --> 00:09:53.250 all this shit that i've heard about that's what she expected to see yeah because 00:09:53.250 --> 00:09:56.310 that's what's because that's that's the message that keeps being 00:09:56.310 --> 00:09:59.570 probably spread more loudly about 00:09:59.570 --> 00:10:02.450 how immigrants in this country and how they're trying to throw them 00:10:02.450 --> 00:10:05.250 out and blah blah blah and the mass deportations blah 00:10:05.250 --> 00:10:08.390 blah blah and so what she got in her head from all 00:10:08.390 --> 00:10:11.330 of this very loud messaging that's 00:10:11.330 --> 00:10:14.490 going on right now which you know it goes about the messaging 00:10:14.490 --> 00:10:17.250 versus reality right is that oh my 00:10:17.250 --> 00:10:20.730 god i just expected all of these people to be panhandling and 00:10:20.730 --> 00:10:24.190 like harassing people because of all the complaints i heard and i've 00:10:24.190 --> 00:10:29.650 been here for two weeks i haven't seen a single one no one and i was like and 00:10:29.650 --> 00:10:35.690 that was like a very shocking thing to her to see and actually to get somebody 00:10:35.690 --> 00:10:41.750 with the fresh eyes of seeing what the right-wing propaganda. 00:10:42.410 --> 00:10:48.130 Has made as the message of what is going on with the immigrants and how it's 00:10:48.130 --> 00:10:49.910 seen by people who don't see it. 00:10:50.110 --> 00:10:54.830 And when they actually come in and see it and they're like, what the fuck are they talking about? 00:10:55.590 --> 00:11:00.030 And so to me, that was a very shocking thing. 00:11:00.150 --> 00:11:04.410 The other thing I think that she heard repeatedly is how, because of America 00:11:04.410 --> 00:11:06.270 is some kind of like a hellscape, 00:11:06.270 --> 00:11:09.090 like of something you know based on what's been 00:11:09.090 --> 00:11:12.030 going on recently and she was like 00:11:12.030 --> 00:11:15.330 and especially you hear that a lot not just 00:11:15.330 --> 00:11:18.250 from right-wing people like trump who keeps 00:11:18.250 --> 00:11:20.990 calling places that the u.s is garbage and whatever or 00:11:20.990 --> 00:11:24.990 not because that's what they're saying very loudly right now violent this 00:11:24.990 --> 00:11:28.210 violent cesspools garbage cities you 00:11:28.210 --> 00:11:31.030 know destroyed blah blah blah and you get that 00:11:31.030 --> 00:11:33.930 a lot also from the ultra left in in 00:11:33.930 --> 00:11:37.730 in uh latin america and she was like holy 00:11:37.730 --> 00:11:41.050 shit everything is like so perfect 00:11:41.050 --> 00:11:44.230 i i i'm right i'm still like everything is 00:11:44.230 --> 00:11:48.350 like beyond perfect i could never imagine that things anywhere 00:11:48.350 --> 00:11:51.630 could be so perfect that she went to 00:11:51.630 --> 00:11:55.990 visit his school and she worked in public schools in columbia okay and she had 00:11:55.990 --> 00:11:59.150 heard all this shit about u.s education whatever about whatever she went to 00:11:59.150 --> 00:12:03.350 manu school and she was like this place is a fucking palace the fuck are they 00:12:03.350 --> 00:12:10.470 talking about and it's and i i just thought that these things and the perspective of. 00:12:11.110 --> 00:12:19.470 What it is that is said in the in the propaganda war because sam because we 00:12:19.470 --> 00:12:26.510 are in the middle of what truly is a massive propaganda war. Okay? 00:12:26.710 --> 00:12:27.010 Mm-hmm. 00:12:27.090 --> 00:12:34.170 It has nothing to do with facts. It has everything to do with what the propaganda 00:12:34.170 --> 00:12:40.030 is and what the effect of that propaganda has on people and the perspective of what they see. 00:12:40.770 --> 00:12:47.670 Well, we haven't talked about it as much this time around as in 2016, obviously, 00:12:47.910 --> 00:12:52.550 but the sort of international players trying to, quote-unquote, 00:12:52.750 --> 00:12:55.970 interfere with elections is actually only part of it. 00:12:56.210 --> 00:12:59.510 First of all, international players, including our government, 00:12:59.570 --> 00:13:05.050 I am goddamn sure, are working to interfere with elections all over the freaking world. 00:13:05.050 --> 00:13:05.850 They always have. 00:13:05.850 --> 00:13:10.450 And they all are. So we had a lot of focus on Russia. 00:13:10.590 --> 00:13:14.470 Russia's still at it. But so is China. 00:13:15.210 --> 00:13:18.750 So is Saudi Arabia. So is Iran. So is Israel. 00:13:19.370 --> 00:13:24.710 Israel. I would be surprised if there is any major country that isn't. 00:13:24.710 --> 00:13:25.270 Yeah. 00:13:25.530 --> 00:13:30.070 And they're and they're doing it to every election for every country that they 00:13:30.070 --> 00:13:34.210 care about in whatever way, shape or form to some degree or another, 00:13:34.390 --> 00:13:37.130 but also completely outside of elections. 00:13:37.450 --> 00:13:37.690 Yeah. 00:13:37.750 --> 00:13:43.810 They're still trying to influence the internal politics of countries who are relevant to their own. 00:13:44.010 --> 00:13:44.190 Yes. 00:13:44.350 --> 00:13:50.910 You know, because you want to move things in a direction that's positive towards you. 00:13:51.070 --> 00:13:51.190 Right. 00:13:51.490 --> 00:13:56.490 And or or you just want to foment chaos. In countries that are your adversary. 00:13:56.710 --> 00:13:59.810 So they won't be as effective as being at being your adversary. 00:14:00.030 --> 00:14:00.290 Absolutely. 00:14:00.810 --> 00:14:06.870 And, and, and this is absolutely like, even though we're talking about it less 00:14:06.870 --> 00:14:11.930 than we did eight years ago, it's happening a lot more than it was eight years ago. 00:14:12.030 --> 00:14:16.410 This is happening so much more. It's happening way, way, way more. Yeah. 00:14:16.820 --> 00:14:19.180 But it's just, and this. 00:14:19.400 --> 00:14:24.440 And this, by the way, leads to the increase in people feeling that, 00:14:24.800 --> 00:14:26.500 well, they can't trust anything. 00:14:26.840 --> 00:14:30.820 Facts don't, facts don't matter because there's no way to know what's true because 00:14:30.820 --> 00:14:32.680 everybody's bullshitting you. 00:14:32.980 --> 00:14:37.860 You know, and the thing is that what, well, I had first, I had that as a, 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:42.320 but first I wanted to mention this before I got this, but making a segue into 00:14:42.320 --> 00:14:45.740 some of the, you know, what the punditry is doing out there. 00:14:45.740 --> 00:14:53.620 Nate Cohn, who is the data analyst at the New York Times, put out a column today 00:14:53.620 --> 00:14:56.240 on why it's so hard to defeat Trump. 00:14:56.420 --> 00:15:02.120 And I read it, and I didn't even share it because he's a good data analyst. 00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:06.360 But I'll tell you that that was the most disingenuous note I ever read in my life. 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:11.260 Because it was one of these things where what he said, well, 00:15:11.360 --> 00:15:15.280 the issue is that – and I actually heard somebody else this week, Bob Costas on another. 00:15:15.880 --> 00:15:18.600 On a sport podcast went and veered into this 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:21.340 for a little bit and i wound up having to hear a little bit of 00:15:21.340 --> 00:15:24.100 this and it's this whole disingenuous thing well 00:15:24.100 --> 00:15:27.100 the problem is that the democrats have 00:15:27.100 --> 00:15:33.920 been on the wrong side of certain positions and and policy and i'll and i'm 00:15:33.920 --> 00:15:41.380 like i'm looking at this and i'm like how how how in today still to this day 00:15:41.380 --> 00:15:46.260 i still keep hearing people saying this complete sheer nonsense. 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:52.020 It's got nothing to do with any of the fucking democratic positions. 00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:56.400 Most of them that if you actually poll, you find that most people support. 00:15:56.580 --> 00:16:02.220 It's all the fake straw man that are being built up and all the fake propaganda 00:16:02.220 --> 00:16:04.940 that says that the main issue is America, 00:16:04.940 --> 00:16:09.000 is that you're going to send your child to school and they're going to make 00:16:09.000 --> 00:16:12.460 a sex change operation and return it to him as a girl, or a boy, 00:16:12.560 --> 00:16:13.700 or whatever other thing. 00:16:14.210 --> 00:16:16.810 This is the problem. 00:16:17.290 --> 00:16:20.330 And immigrants are coming to, like, rape your children as well. 00:16:20.350 --> 00:16:25.970 And eat your cats and dogs. And they're overrunning the country. 00:16:26.170 --> 00:16:27.830 And they're panhandling and every day. 00:16:28.230 --> 00:16:32.310 Amcorner doing nothing and taking government benefits and voting illegally. 00:16:32.590 --> 00:16:40.230 It has nothing, nothing, nothing to do with actual facts. 00:16:40.230 --> 00:16:50.390 It has to do with the entire GOP being in on absolute propaganda of shit that 00:16:50.390 --> 00:16:53.710 isn't real and that the facts have not mattered. 00:16:53.870 --> 00:16:58.730 And it doesn't matter because Bob Costas on this podcast saying, 00:16:58.910 --> 00:17:04.110 well, the thing is that they take some positions or whatever that feed Fox. No, no, no. 00:17:04.330 --> 00:17:11.170 They will make it up. It doesn't matter. You could sit over there and not say one damn thing. 00:17:11.230 --> 00:17:15.310 And they will say that you are out there going and say, hey, 00:17:15.430 --> 00:17:18.970 violent criminals, go crime all you want. Hey, you know what? 00:17:19.210 --> 00:17:23.070 You know, we want pedophile teachers, you know, gay pedophile teachers that 00:17:23.070 --> 00:17:24.390 are fucking every child at school. 00:17:24.530 --> 00:17:30.010 They will make they will make right now there you you can sit there. 00:17:30.530 --> 00:17:34.930 90% of the shit that you're talking about is not based on any talking point 00:17:34.930 --> 00:17:37.050 that the Democrats have actually ever made. 00:17:37.210 --> 00:17:43.630 It's completely made of bullshit that they repeat and they repeat and they push. I mean, I don't know. 00:17:44.090 --> 00:17:49.910 Well, and I'll add one thing that even in the best of days, people didn't really 00:17:49.910 --> 00:17:53.190 ever make their decision on policy anyway. 00:17:53.590 --> 00:17:57.510 They based their voting decision on two things. 00:17:57.510 --> 00:18:02.030 One is sort of a, and this has increased over the last few decades, 00:18:02.090 --> 00:18:03.550 it used to be a lot less like this, 00:18:03.890 --> 00:18:09.450 but sort of tribal association with a party, like everybody you know and all 00:18:09.450 --> 00:18:12.510 your friends are with this party, so you are too. 00:18:13.650 --> 00:18:18.430 And like I said, this didn't used to be that way. We used to have radical swings, 00:18:18.430 --> 00:18:21.190 election from election, where lots of people switched parties. 00:18:21.190 --> 00:18:22.850 It would go for Democrats. Yep, yep. 00:18:22.850 --> 00:18:29.850 Yeah. People were not set in stone with a particular party and lots of people 00:18:29.850 --> 00:18:32.810 actually would switch election from election. Not anymore. 00:18:33.070 --> 00:18:36.890 Now that tribalism is a very strong part of what's going on. 00:18:37.330 --> 00:18:47.550 But then beyond that, it's about vibes and emotion and feeling and that kind of thing. 00:18:47.550 --> 00:18:54.890 And that is very, very susceptible to all of the stuff you're talking about, 00:18:55.110 --> 00:18:59.310 even more so than sort of facts and policy and blah, blah, blah, 00:18:59.310 --> 00:19:05.590 because you're not really trying to get people to agree on any sort of policy position. 00:19:05.590 --> 00:19:08.890 You're just trying to pull the 00:19:08.890 --> 00:19:12.090 right emotional strings you know 00:19:12.090 --> 00:19:20.270 and and whether that's you know fear or hope or whatever you're it's it's about 00:19:20.270 --> 00:19:25.950 like getting that emotional resonance that people feel like you're the one that's 00:19:25.950 --> 00:19:29.570 speaking to them and how they feel about life. 00:19:29.570 --> 00:19:33.950 Look it's like the whole 20 plus years ago, James Carville had to, 00:19:34.050 --> 00:19:35.930 it's the economy, stupid thing, right? 00:19:36.430 --> 00:19:40.970 Here's the one thing. Back then, at least, one big difference was that if the 00:19:40.970 --> 00:19:45.370 economy was bad, everybody would acknowledge the economy was bad for the most part. 00:19:45.510 --> 00:19:48.250 It wasn't like the Republicans were trying to say, oh, no, no, 00:19:48.290 --> 00:19:49.570 no, the economy is great. 00:19:49.810 --> 00:19:54.050 They were like, no, yeah, no, we've got these issues, but we're going to do 00:19:54.050 --> 00:19:55.030 this to fix it, whatever. 00:19:55.410 --> 00:19:57.430 And the Democrats would say, well, we're going to do this to fix it. 00:19:57.550 --> 00:19:59.450 Right now, we have a completely different problem. 00:19:59.710 --> 00:20:03.750 Right now, like as a few polls that I've seen, poll people and say, 00:20:03.890 --> 00:20:06.370 hey, how are you doing economically? You. 00:20:06.890 --> 00:20:11.410 70% of them say, we're doing great. Then you take that exact same sample. 00:20:11.550 --> 00:20:14.750 Hey, what do you think? How do you think the economy's doing? 00:20:15.090 --> 00:20:17.190 70% of them say it's terrible. 00:20:17.550 --> 00:20:19.790 And you're like, what? 00:20:20.370 --> 00:20:22.610 How? It's the same group. 00:20:23.590 --> 00:20:26.850 And they, I mean, 70% of them say they're doing great. 00:20:27.250 --> 00:20:30.550 And then 70% say the economy is terrible. There, there could, 00:20:30.910 --> 00:20:35.750 if there isn't anything that can show you the massive effect of the fucking 00:20:35.750 --> 00:20:39.130 current propaganda environment that we're in, like right now, 00:20:39.550 --> 00:20:44.110 as that, there is no, no other data point that to me crystallized it. 00:20:44.950 --> 00:20:49.330 The other one that immediately comes to mind for me is crime. 00:20:49.530 --> 00:20:54.330 Oh, where every crime, where everybody, like, if you poll people, 00:20:54.530 --> 00:20:57.050 crime is up. Crime is horrible. 00:20:57.350 --> 00:21:02.590 Crime is like a big, huge problem that's worse than it's ever been before in their lives. 00:21:02.950 --> 00:21:07.290 When in fact, there was a little bit of an upswing over the course of the pandemic 00:21:07.290 --> 00:21:09.710 in a couple of years that we're mostly back down from. 00:21:10.010 --> 00:21:14.010 But if you look decade over decade over decade, it's practically the safest 00:21:14.010 --> 00:21:16.290 it's ever fucking been in the United States. 00:21:16.910 --> 00:21:20.190 You know, maybe we're slightly up for Marlowe's a couple of years ago, 00:21:20.190 --> 00:21:23.830 but it's slightly, you know, and, but that's not the perception. 00:21:24.070 --> 00:21:27.930 No, you know, you're like. 00:21:28.670 --> 00:21:29.110 Oh, 00:21:33.010 --> 00:21:36.690 same, same, same thing. Crime related. I just want to say people's perceptions 00:21:36.690 --> 00:21:45.650 are, you know, the cities are hell escapes a cesspool of crime and the cities 00:21:45.650 --> 00:21:47.910 are dangerous and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:21:47.910 --> 00:21:52.990 If you actually look at it on a per capita basis, the cities are safer than rural areas. 00:21:53.130 --> 00:21:54.070 Yes, that's correct. 00:21:54.690 --> 00:21:56.090 You know, I mean. 00:21:56.230 --> 00:21:59.590 Well, well, the problem also about immigration, right? 00:22:00.370 --> 00:22:05.930 Oh, my God. We're having more illegal immigrants than ever, Sam. 00:22:06.330 --> 00:22:09.510 Ever, ever, ever, ever. 00:22:10.410 --> 00:22:11.770 Ever, ever, ever. 00:22:12.210 --> 00:22:13.810 No, no, we're not. 00:22:13.810 --> 00:22:22.850 So, your butt first immediately started getting into actual things related to the election. I... 00:22:23.990 --> 00:22:26.910 I almost want to skip mine so we can keep the election focused, 00:22:26.930 --> 00:22:32.070 but I do want to briefly mention one thing, because I had an actual non-newsy but first. 00:22:33.110 --> 00:22:34.330 The only relation to the... 00:22:34.330 --> 00:22:38.470 Well, mine was kind of... Well, you know, I was... 00:22:39.270 --> 00:22:43.830 Unfortunately, my but first, the issue was that it got kind of like got spun 00:22:43.830 --> 00:22:47.770 into an issue because of what the fuck is going on. 00:22:48.330 --> 00:22:48.930 Yeah, yeah. 00:22:49.310 --> 00:22:49.930 Yeah, I'm sorry. 00:22:49.930 --> 00:22:58.710 Okay, so the one relation I can give to the election is that because of what I'm about to mention, 00:22:58.710 --> 00:23:07.110 I got like a day and a half behind on putting in data for election graphs. 00:23:07.250 --> 00:23:09.510 And I caught up last night, actually, by the way. 00:23:11.970 --> 00:23:16.750 I've only had two hours sleep last night. I finished catching up on the election 00:23:16.750 --> 00:23:20.950 graphs poll, slept for actually, yeah, more like 90 minutes, 00:23:21.050 --> 00:23:22.890 then got up and I'm doing this podcast. 00:23:23.030 --> 00:23:25.150 So I'll probably crash again afterwards. 00:23:25.490 --> 00:23:28.770 Yeah, we'll see. But no, I wanted to mention this. 00:23:28.910 --> 00:23:39.090 My son, Alex, for years now, he's 15 now, probably since he was like seven or eight, 00:23:40.090 --> 00:23:43.290 for his quote unquote Halloween costume, 00:23:43.670 --> 00:23:50.730 has ridden around the neighborhood, pulled in a radio flyer wagon, 00:23:50.910 --> 00:23:56.670 a heavy duty radio flyer wagon, that my wife, way back years ago, 00:23:57.130 --> 00:23:58.970 dressed up as a train. 00:23:59.250 --> 00:24:03.490 And the first version for one year was basically just cardboard. 00:24:03.670 --> 00:24:07.790 The second year, it was more elaborate, sort of a more elaborate foam board 00:24:07.790 --> 00:24:11.390 kind of thing and handcrafted by my wife. But, 00:24:12.130 --> 00:24:18.750 My son has, and my son, you know, very much wanted to, this is what he wants every freaking year. 00:24:18.910 --> 00:24:21.010 He wants the train. He doesn't want to do anything different. 00:24:21.010 --> 00:24:22.370 He wants to do that. Okay. 00:24:23.330 --> 00:24:29.670 And, but there's a little bit of a problem in that he's now six foot one. 00:24:30.050 --> 00:24:30.530 Yeah. 00:24:30.950 --> 00:24:36.730 He does not fit into the train that my wife built him when he was seven. 00:24:36.950 --> 00:24:38.670 Probably. Okay. 00:24:39.910 --> 00:24:44.030 And there are two problems. One was doesn't fit. 00:24:44.030 --> 00:24:53.670 The other is that him plus the train are now heavy enough that pulling this thing is, 00:24:53.910 --> 00:25:01.590 let's just say, at the absolute limits of my ability to pull even a short distance. Okay. 00:25:01.890 --> 00:25:05.790 But here's the thing. and last 00:25:05.790 --> 00:25:08.570 year last year well two years ago we 00:25:08.570 --> 00:25:11.610 warned him like we won't be able to pull this thing anymore it's it's too 00:25:11.610 --> 00:25:14.450 hard you barely fit in it we're you know 00:25:14.450 --> 00:25:17.410 and and i can barely pull the thing but two years 00:25:17.410 --> 00:25:22.890 ago we did take them around the neighborhood one year ago we stuck to our guns 00:25:22.890 --> 00:25:26.530 and we're like no i can't can't do that i can't pull you around in this thing 00:25:26.530 --> 00:25:32.470 you you don't really fit in it and you're too heavy and so we didn't pull them 00:25:32.470 --> 00:25:35.950 around the neighborhood We took the train out and it was in our driveway. 00:25:36.130 --> 00:25:38.130 All the trick-or-treaters could see the train, blah, blah, blah. 00:25:38.430 --> 00:25:40.190 But I did not pull him around it. 00:25:40.770 --> 00:25:44.790 He was devastatingly upset last year. 00:25:46.250 --> 00:25:56.130 So he remembered this year, but not until a few weeks before Halloween that he wanted to do this. 00:25:56.210 --> 00:25:58.570 And we kept saying, look, we're not pulling you. 00:25:58.710 --> 00:26:04.690 We're not going to do this and you don't fit in the train. And so he started 00:26:04.690 --> 00:26:09.210 probably a month before Halloween and, 00:26:09.760 --> 00:26:13.540 wanting me to like move stuff around in the garage. 00:26:14.040 --> 00:26:18.300 And I didn't understand exactly what, but I cooperated and every few days I'd 00:26:18.300 --> 00:26:22.240 spend like an hour moving some stuff in their garage, going through some boxes. 00:26:22.320 --> 00:26:30.100 It took me a couple of weeks of doing this before I realized that he was trying to A, 00:26:30.320 --> 00:26:37.680 extract the train from where it was in the garage and to make room so he could work on the train. 00:26:38.140 --> 00:26:41.500 Once I knew what he wanted, which of course he refused to communicate in any 00:26:41.500 --> 00:26:43.680 way other than he wanted me to move stuff around in the garage, 00:26:43.860 --> 00:26:49.220 I was able to extract the train and make room for in a few hours in one burst. 00:26:49.920 --> 00:26:54.060 And then from that moment on, he wanted to work on the train. 00:26:54.780 --> 00:26:58.460 He had us go to Lowe's. We got a whole bunch of supplies. 00:26:58.860 --> 00:27:04.720 Like I'm talking lumber, tools, all this kind of stuff and he he would not communicate 00:27:04.720 --> 00:27:08.240 his detailed plans to me he would not like say that. 00:27:08.240 --> 00:27:09.100 Makes it a lot easier. 00:27:09.100 --> 00:27:14.760 No no he's just like you know he we go he would indicate that he wanted to go 00:27:14.760 --> 00:27:17.920 to lowes we would go to lowes he would wander around lowes putting stuff into 00:27:17.920 --> 00:27:25.220 the cart i have no idea what the various things are for i agree i realize it's 00:27:25.220 --> 00:27:27.640 related to the train, but that's all I realized. 00:27:28.040 --> 00:27:32.840 And I willing, you know, I let him spend a bunch of his own allowance money 00:27:32.840 --> 00:27:34.040 and then I'm like, okay, fine. 00:27:34.360 --> 00:27:37.860 I realize you're doing something. It's important to you. I'll put in some of my money too. 00:27:38.040 --> 00:27:42.760 Because like this ended up being a few hundred dollars in the end of supplies 00:27:42.760 --> 00:27:44.580 from Lowe's over several different trips. 00:27:45.520 --> 00:27:50.860 But in any case, and I'm going to go through this quickly so we can get back 00:27:50.860 --> 00:27:54.520 to election stuff, but he He ended up building... 00:27:55.520 --> 00:28:05.180 A new version of the train designed to be a replica of the one that my wife made him years ago, 00:28:05.500 --> 00:28:11.380 but scaled up so that it was big enough for him to get inside again. 00:28:11.880 --> 00:28:15.980 Now, this, by the way, does not solve the weight problem. It, 00:28:16.060 --> 00:28:18.240 in fact, makes the weight problem worse. 00:28:19.360 --> 00:28:24.540 Because not only did he scale it up, but he also made it out of beefier materials. 00:28:24.540 --> 00:28:31.780 So like stuff that was just foam board before now has a frame made out of lumber okay. 00:28:31.780 --> 00:28:34.760 Well you could have like uh you know what you 00:28:34.760 --> 00:28:40.800 need is uh some to find you know they have these like wheels that have these 00:28:40.800 --> 00:28:46.040 ball bearings that are super super super super slick yeah yeah you would need 00:28:46.040 --> 00:28:50.580 to find well the thing is set of those the thing is this is that basically make 00:28:50.580 --> 00:28:52.960 this thing like glide we I mean. 00:28:53.080 --> 00:28:56.940 It's built off the regular radio flyer off the shelf thing. 00:28:57.180 --> 00:29:00.960 Now it is the heavy duty one, but like replacing the wheels would, 00:29:01.140 --> 00:29:05.140 it's not just you need wheels. You need the whole assembly to attach. 00:29:05.300 --> 00:29:06.840 You need the whole, yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:29:07.160 --> 00:29:11.380 Now, another thing we've offered him, by the way, we offered him. 00:29:11.560 --> 00:29:18.060 And the thing is, like the time to bring all this stuff up is not October before Halloween. 00:29:18.580 --> 00:29:22.400 And I told him this previous years, it's like, if you want to do this, 00:29:22.540 --> 00:29:24.760 like do it months in advance. 00:29:24.800 --> 00:29:27.980 I've told my wife the same thing too, about like Halloween prep she wants to 00:29:27.980 --> 00:29:29.980 do, but of course it always ends up in the last few hours. 00:29:29.980 --> 00:29:33.060 But we offered like, hey, 00:29:33.660 --> 00:29:39.020 instead of the radio flyer wagon that I have to drag around, 00:29:39.340 --> 00:29:45.160 let's buy you a fucking go-kart to build this thing on top of that has an actual 00:29:45.160 --> 00:29:46.980 engine that you can drive. 00:29:47.870 --> 00:29:53.290 You know, you know that and one that's built for your size and weight. Right. 00:29:53.450 --> 00:29:56.710 So that you and you build that and then you can build it on top of that. 00:29:56.870 --> 00:29:59.750 And it would be and then, you know, you eliminate the problem. 00:30:00.170 --> 00:30:06.070 Anyway, the bottom line, he spent for the last week before Halloween on the 00:30:06.070 --> 00:30:13.110 order of close to 12 hours a day working on this freaking train between going to the store, 00:30:13.790 --> 00:30:15.310 building stuff, cutting stuff, whatever. 00:30:15.310 --> 00:30:21.210 Now, of course, I got roped into helping with lots of it. There were power tools involved. 00:30:21.470 --> 00:30:27.170 I mean, he used the power tools. I used the power tools. There was cutting. I, I, I, I. 00:30:27.310 --> 00:30:32.350 I, this is really scary to hear that the both of you using power tools, 00:30:32.390 --> 00:30:33.890 because I don't really see that. 00:30:34.170 --> 00:30:43.370 I see more Alex, like inheriting your clumsiness with those things rather than your wife's aptitude. 00:30:43.370 --> 00:30:49.850 Well, I'll tell you what he's got is he's got the, the, the creative handiness. 00:30:50.030 --> 00:30:54.590 Like he designed this whole fucking thing and he had a plan from the very beginning. 00:30:54.690 --> 00:30:59.070 Like it was unclear to me until it started coming together, but he clearly had 00:30:59.070 --> 00:31:02.770 a detailed plan of exactly how this thing was going to be built. 00:31:03.150 --> 00:31:07.410 Exactly what like parts he needed, exactly what tools he needed. 00:31:07.870 --> 00:31:11.030 And you know, he had it all worked out in his head. 00:31:11.570 --> 00:31:13.590 Um, okay. and so what. 00:31:13.590 --> 00:31:14.410 About the execution. 00:31:14.410 --> 00:31:20.510 Uh it was good now the the people watching will not be able to see this but 00:31:20.510 --> 00:31:26.830 i am going to send to the curmudgeon yeah listening the well even the people 00:31:26.830 --> 00:31:29.870 watching on the live stream because i'm just i'm just going to text it to the 00:31:29.870 --> 00:31:31.630 let's see do i still have this here, 00:31:33.380 --> 00:31:37.720 paste. I'm going to have to do this. Hold on. I didn't have it. 00:31:40.620 --> 00:31:42.100 This one's the right one. 00:31:44.120 --> 00:31:47.940 Okay. So I just sent it to the random channel on the curmudgeons corner slack 00:31:47.940 --> 00:31:53.760 for anybody who goes there and everybody else you're going to miss out. 00:31:53.920 --> 00:31:56.380 Sorry. But anyway, so he succeeded. 00:31:56.820 --> 00:32:04.120 He built this thing. Now he was a little, go ahead that's a choo-choo train yeah so it really. 00:32:04.120 --> 00:32:04.920 Looks like it. 00:32:04.920 --> 00:32:10.220 It's a train it's got lights it's got whatever it's painted you know he did 00:32:10.220 --> 00:32:12.360 all all the painting how long. 00:32:12.360 --> 00:32:12.980 Did this take. 00:32:12.980 --> 00:32:15.660 Well he was working about 12 hours a day for a 00:32:15.660 --> 00:32:18.980 week wow you know maybe not 00:32:18.980 --> 00:32:22.240 quite that maybe eight hours a day for a week and it 00:32:22.240 --> 00:32:25.300 wasn't all efficient time right like it wasn't 00:32:25.300 --> 00:32:28.800 like non-stop go go go go go and sometime and 00:32:28.800 --> 00:32:31.640 for most of it i was working along with him there were 00:32:31.640 --> 00:32:34.720 lots of late nights there was whatever he didn't quite make 00:32:34.720 --> 00:32:41.200 it in time for for trick-or-treat like we ended up this thing got finished i 00:32:41.200 --> 00:32:45.900 would say about an hour after the last trick-or-treater came to our house okay 00:32:45.900 --> 00:32:51.340 and close enough we got about we we got about 150 trick-or-treaters each time 00:32:51.340 --> 00:32:53.600 around and it was busy and lots of people. 00:32:53.780 --> 00:32:56.700 But so after he was finally done, 00:32:57.080 --> 00:33:05.780 we wheeled the thing out and I did manage to pull this thing with him in it 00:33:05.780 --> 00:33:08.980 from our house, up the driveway. 00:33:09.460 --> 00:33:14.560 Two houses over, turn around, come back, and then go back down to driveway. 00:33:14.760 --> 00:33:17.960 He was thrilled. He was happy. He accomplished his goal, even 00:33:17.960 --> 00:33:21.380 though we didn't actually trick or treat at any houses or whatever because 00:33:21.380 --> 00:33:24.100 all that was up all that it was late it 00:33:24.100 --> 00:33:30.000 was over and look if one of the two houses right next to us had had like just 00:33:30.000 --> 00:33:34.180 a bowl of candy left out for like anybody stragglers just take the candy we 00:33:34.180 --> 00:33:42.500 would have done that but no now i will say me pulling at that distance what was roughly Yeah. 00:33:43.040 --> 00:33:52.500 You know, I would pull for maybe 10 feet and then, and then I would like have to catch my breath. 00:33:52.620 --> 00:34:02.120 I'd be leaning over and then like, and then try again after we went up and back, 00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:07.780 like I sat in a chair in the freaking rain for 20 minutes to recover before 00:34:07.780 --> 00:34:09.880 I like did anything else. 00:34:09.880 --> 00:34:13.600 But anyway, I just wanted to point out he succeeded. He did his task. 00:34:13.780 --> 00:34:19.300 He built a freaking train. Now it is basically like modeled in every single 00:34:19.300 --> 00:34:26.360 detail after the old one my wife built, but just scaled up heftier, stronger materials, 00:34:26.580 --> 00:34:31.120 all of that kind of stuff, which again, it solves the problem of him being able to fit in it. 00:34:31.120 --> 00:34:37.660 It does not solve the problem of the combination is too heavy for me to pull around. 00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:41.580 It's also probably over the weight limit of the wagon itself. 00:34:41.880 --> 00:34:48.660 At any moment, I'm waiting for like it to collapse under the weight or for parts of it. 00:34:48.780 --> 00:34:52.580 Like the little pull handle you pull the wagon with feels like it could break 00:34:52.580 --> 00:34:55.320 off at any moment because it just can't handle pulling that much. 00:34:55.320 --> 00:35:02.840 And the floor of the wagon feels like it could break too under his weight. 00:35:03.020 --> 00:35:07.060 So I told him for next year, he has to motorize it. 00:35:07.300 --> 00:35:09.840 Like if he's going to do this again next year, it must be motorized. 00:35:10.100 --> 00:35:12.720 Okay, anyway, that was... 00:35:12.720 --> 00:35:17.160 Or like I said, you need to find lower friction. 00:35:17.620 --> 00:35:21.560 Lower friction wheels. Yeah, well, the thing is he insisted too on building 00:35:21.560 --> 00:35:23.200 it on top of the same wagon. 00:35:23.860 --> 00:35:29.080 Like, you know, we offered like, let's get a new wagon that's built for more 00:35:29.080 --> 00:35:34.040 weight and is intended for like this because they make they make heavier duty 00:35:34.040 --> 00:35:40.580 ones that are made for like lugging hundreds of pounds of cargo or whatever, you know. 00:35:40.840 --> 00:35:43.880 Sure. I mean, that's how how do you think those people do that? 00:35:44.000 --> 00:35:49.400 Exactly. I mean, the wheels on those basically are extremely low friction wheels 00:35:49.400 --> 00:35:55.020 that allow, you know, somebody to be able that isn't, you know, Hulk Hogan. 00:35:55.200 --> 00:35:58.560 Oh, God, bad reference. Somebody very strong. Not that asshole. 00:35:58.920 --> 00:36:03.760 Okay. He's probably like, you know, probably not really as strong as he is. Yeah. 00:36:04.100 --> 00:36:07.380 You know, but it's a very strong. You don't have to be a very strong person 00:36:07.380 --> 00:36:08.600 to push a couple of hundred pounds. 00:36:08.640 --> 00:36:12.260 Yeah, no, he insisted on building it on top of the same old platform that was 00:36:12.260 --> 00:36:15.820 on before. I am hoping if he really wants to do this next year, 00:36:16.020 --> 00:36:21.760 that he will be convinced to move to a motorized platform. 00:36:22.060 --> 00:36:25.860 Like maybe what you're talking about, but ideally a motorized platform that he can. 00:36:26.000 --> 00:36:30.480 Ideally motorized, but yeah. But, you know, the one thing I will say is like, 00:36:30.560 --> 00:36:35.420 think about, you know, cars ride on those. Okay. Just to give an example. 00:36:35.680 --> 00:36:43.540 Okay. Because if you think about this, a car, most people on a flat surface can push a car. 00:36:44.620 --> 00:36:50.620 Now, why would that be? I mean, 4,000, 5,000 pounds, 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 pounds. 00:36:50.780 --> 00:36:56.820 It really is in large part, the biggest thing is because the bearings on which the wheels sit, 00:36:57.450 --> 00:37:03.890 are extremely low friction, okay? It allows for, you know, somebody, 00:37:04.150 --> 00:37:12.290 just a, usually, you know, a normal person putting enough force behind it can move a car. 00:37:12.390 --> 00:37:16.630 I mean, and you could move a car a pretty significant distance, by the way, okay? 00:37:16.870 --> 00:37:20.630 Just pushing it, okay? So that's what I'm saying. 00:37:20.670 --> 00:37:22.610 Let me give you one thing. 00:37:22.710 --> 00:37:22.870 The wheels make a difference. 00:37:23.050 --> 00:37:25.530 Let me give you one thing, and we'll wrap this up. I'll take the break, 00:37:25.530 --> 00:37:26.590 and we'll start talking election. 00:37:26.590 --> 00:37:29.730 But i will say along the 00:37:29.730 --> 00:37:32.490 lines of you can push a car i will 00:37:32.490 --> 00:37:35.250 say i i i we never got to 00:37:35.250 --> 00:37:40.410 talk about it on a show but i did have an opportunity to deal with a situation 00:37:40.410 --> 00:37:46.050 where my car had to be pushed a couple months ago and without going into detail 00:37:46.050 --> 00:37:52.650 i was a dumbass i ran out of gas okay uh okay let's just surprise surprise just 00:37:52.650 --> 00:37:53.950 but well it was the first time, 00:37:57.110 --> 00:38:02.490 I had it on my topic list. I listed it as the Taco Bell incident, 00:38:02.490 --> 00:38:05.090 but like it did not come up. 00:38:05.230 --> 00:38:07.770 It did not come up on the show. We have other things going on. 00:38:08.090 --> 00:38:12.130 But look, I was a dumbass. I ran out of gas. The car had to be pushed out of 00:38:12.130 --> 00:38:14.670 the way while I waited to like get gas. 00:38:14.670 --> 00:38:15.990 Were you able to push the car? 00:38:16.290 --> 00:38:21.230 Well, here's what I was going to say. Here is an important tip when trying to 00:38:21.230 --> 00:38:24.710 push the car. Because of course I had the, you know, I was sitting in the driver's 00:38:24.710 --> 00:38:26.050 seat and someone tried to push it. 00:38:26.790 --> 00:38:29.290 Here's an important, important tip. 00:38:29.770 --> 00:38:31.730 Leave the ignition key on. 00:38:32.030 --> 00:38:35.250 Well, no, I was going to say, not only do you need to put it in neutral, 00:38:35.510 --> 00:38:40.910 but importantly, important tip, you must take your foot off the brake. 00:38:42.110 --> 00:38:42.990 No shit. 00:38:43.570 --> 00:38:50.530 Which I did not do initially. So, and so it was like, we couldn't push it. 00:38:50.530 --> 00:38:53.330 We could no shit anyway. 00:38:53.330 --> 00:38:55.430 Yes okay with that. 00:38:55.430 --> 00:39:01.470 Top another top tip for us if you're going to have somebody push you in the 00:39:01.470 --> 00:39:08.690 car lift your foot off the brake and that's the kind of quality analysis and 00:39:08.690 --> 00:39:13.350 insight that you get from a top quality show like curmudgeon's corner. 00:39:13.350 --> 00:39:15.610 Exactly okay and. 00:39:15.610 --> 00:39:16.270 Yes and. 00:39:16.270 --> 00:39:20.230 It's time for a break and i swear i didn't rig this because last time i played 00:39:20.230 --> 00:39:22.910 And I was like, this is probably going to be the last time for four years. 00:39:23.090 --> 00:39:28.450 But no, no, it came up randomly one last time. 00:39:28.670 --> 00:39:30.790 So here comes the election graph 00:39:30.790 --> 00:39:34.670 break. And then I'll give the update from election graphs back after this. 00:39:37.950 --> 00:39:42.470 Do you want to understand what is really going on with the presidential election cycle? 00:39:42.990 --> 00:39:46.810 Then go to electiongraphs.com right away. 00:39:47.610 --> 00:39:51.910 There you'll find charts and graphs covering the nomination processes in both 00:39:51.910 --> 00:39:55.650 parties and the general election race for electoral college votes. 00:39:56.510 --> 00:40:01.130 For the delegate races, we track not just delegate totals, but also the ever-important 00:40:01.130 --> 00:40:06.250 analysis of how each candidate has to do with the remaining delegates in order to actually win. 00:40:06.510 --> 00:40:10.990 For the Electoral College, we track state-by-state poll averages to categorize 00:40:10.990 --> 00:40:15.230 which states are actually in play and which are not in order to show you the 00:40:15.230 --> 00:40:19.530 range of likely electoral results and how that changes over time. 00:40:20.430 --> 00:40:24.350 Sure, you can get some of this stuff elsewhere, but not in exactly the same 00:40:24.350 --> 00:40:28.410 way. and not from me, Sam, your prime curmudgeon. 00:40:28.530 --> 00:40:35.050 I think my election trackers are better than the rest, so come look at mine, electiongraphs.com. 00:40:38.030 --> 00:40:42.570 Okay, we are back. And so starting with the polling update, we are, 00:40:42.870 --> 00:40:51.670 as we are recording this, let me refresh, get 3.3 days from the polls starting to close. 00:40:52.450 --> 00:40:55.570 And oh first before anything else i 00:40:55.570 --> 00:40:58.670 meant to say this at the beginning of the show but we yvonne and 00:40:58.670 --> 00:41:01.570 i have agreed to do the live stream on election night again 00:41:01.570 --> 00:41:09.910 so if you are interested in that mark your calendars and all of that kind of 00:41:09.910 --> 00:41:18.170 stuff to come see like us yammer as election results come in youtube.com slash 00:41:18.170 --> 00:41:21.270 at curmudgeons hyphen corner. 00:41:21.670 --> 00:41:25.550 That'll get you there. And the live stream will show up there. 00:41:25.690 --> 00:41:31.510 There'll also be an announcement posted on their curmudgeons corner Mastodon when we start. 00:41:31.990 --> 00:41:36.430 But yeah, I think we will, my 00:41:36.430 --> 00:41:41.370 plan is I will start the live stream approximately zero UTC that evening. 00:41:41.410 --> 00:41:46.750 So on election night that is 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. 00:41:48.150 --> 00:41:54.950 And yeah, you'll get to hear Yvonne and I react in real time as results start to come in. 00:41:56.010 --> 00:42:00.010 We'll see how that goes. And Yvonne, I don't know if you'll be able to join 00:42:00.010 --> 00:42:01.910 at exactly that time, but that's when I'll start. 00:42:02.350 --> 00:42:09.530 I should be joined. I'm just, like I said before, I'm just not, 00:42:09.770 --> 00:42:12.070 right now, I'm just dreading this. 00:42:12.070 --> 00:42:12.570 Whole thing. 00:42:12.570 --> 00:42:14.470 I i i just i. 00:42:14.470 --> 00:42:19.090 So the poll update and then we'll take a break and then we'll talk about everything 00:42:19.090 --> 00:42:24.750 else the the poll update really the summary is close to what and i said at the 00:42:24.750 --> 00:42:28.190 very beginning of the show it is still too freaking close to call, 00:42:28.810 --> 00:42:34.590 there are still let's see what's the current count yes we're we are back at all at, 00:42:35.500 --> 00:42:38.840 Yeah, all seven, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. 00:42:39.900 --> 00:42:46.320 Well, six states under a 2% margin in my averages and seven under 2.5. 00:42:46.500 --> 00:42:50.200 Arizona is at 2.1. So it's Trump ahead by 2.1. 00:42:51.020 --> 00:42:54.280 And then there are a couple other close states. We now have New Hampshire in 00:42:54.280 --> 00:42:59.380 the game where Harris only has a 3.3% lead in the average. 00:43:00.040 --> 00:43:06.460 And there still hasn't been a second poll. there's still only been one freaking poll in Iowa. 00:43:07.220 --> 00:43:10.640 And so it's still showing up in this swing state category. Although really, 00:43:10.760 --> 00:43:16.740 I think it's probably not, but the one poll we had was remarkably close. 00:43:16.920 --> 00:43:20.040 So maybe Iowa really isn't playing. I don't know. There's just not enough polling 00:43:20.040 --> 00:43:21.660 to say for sure. I guess there were two polls. 00:43:23.020 --> 00:43:27.580 Anyway, bottom line, we are still in the same damn situation. 00:43:27.580 --> 00:43:34.880 If you trust the polls as they are, there is still a slight Trump advantage. 00:43:35.180 --> 00:43:39.720 Like if, if with these averages as they exist, as we are recording right now, 00:43:39.760 --> 00:43:44.360 uh, if you just gave every state to whoever's ahead by even the tiniest amount, 00:43:44.600 --> 00:43:48.460 you would end up with Trump winning by 36 electoral votes. 00:43:49.340 --> 00:43:52.060 Okay but that's tons of these 00:43:52.060 --> 00:43:57.480 close states now if you assume as well like my models do right now that since 00:43:57.480 --> 00:44:02.020 over the last four elections more often than not polls have underestimated the 00:44:02.020 --> 00:44:07.360 republican then you give it even more to him you know as okay this is probably 00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:10.580 a trump thing um but but yeah i. 00:44:10.580 --> 00:44:12.180 Will say what i will say one thing. 00:44:12.180 --> 00:44:14.880 That i was thinking about this thing about us underestimating Trump. 00:44:15.160 --> 00:44:18.780 You know, I was thinking about this underestimating of Trump the last couple 00:44:18.780 --> 00:44:22.600 of years and what would be the reaction, say, if I'm a pollster, right? 00:44:22.780 --> 00:44:23.200 Okay. 00:44:23.720 --> 00:44:31.580 And I kept thinking, man, look, I keep having to think that we got this wrong. 00:44:33.400 --> 00:44:38.200 We're not going to do this a third time. We're going to, we're going to shift 00:44:38.200 --> 00:44:43.840 our model to, to be more on the other side. So we don't underestimate them anymore. 00:44:44.080 --> 00:44:49.440 And of course, the result of that could wind up being, 00:44:50.070 --> 00:44:55.070 The totally opposite of what they expect, because and in such a close election, 00:44:55.350 --> 00:44:56.850 it winds up mattering a lot. 00:44:57.010 --> 00:44:57.170 Yeah. 00:44:57.350 --> 00:45:01.450 OK, is is the problem. And I keep thinking, man, if they got it, 00:45:01.570 --> 00:45:03.710 they under accounted him twice. 00:45:04.190 --> 00:45:11.210 There's no fucking way that they didn't compensate significantly on that side. 00:45:11.350 --> 00:45:13.110 There's no way. There's no way. 00:45:13.310 --> 00:45:16.850 I mean, that would be this normal human reaction. 00:45:17.170 --> 00:45:17.310 Yeah. 00:45:17.490 --> 00:45:22.270 OK. Even if they're not explicitly saying it, I don't know. 00:45:22.530 --> 00:45:28.970 Look, I know myself, for example, as a financial analyst who kept doing forecasts all the time. 00:45:29.210 --> 00:45:33.730 And I remember a couple of times where I kept like either – that actually what 00:45:33.730 --> 00:45:37.870 I wound up doing was over forecasting, over forecasting, and we came in under. 00:45:37.870 --> 00:45:42.910 Believe me, after I did that a couple of times, you bet your ass that the next 00:45:42.910 --> 00:45:45.770 time around, I way under forecasted. 00:45:45.910 --> 00:45:48.310 And then we overshot that we kept overshooting it. 00:45:48.350 --> 00:45:48.510 Right. 00:45:48.710 --> 00:45:52.350 And that was because that's human nature. You don't want to keep fucking, 00:45:52.550 --> 00:45:54.550 you know, hitting the number wrong. 00:45:54.550 --> 00:46:02.150 And so I, man, if, if there wasn't a significant moving of that in the other 00:46:02.150 --> 00:46:05.590 direction by all these pollsters, which either makes it two things, 00:46:05.870 --> 00:46:07.750 two, two possibilities out of this, 00:46:08.390 --> 00:46:13.630 A, they're right on the money, which means that, that, that in so many of these 00:46:13.630 --> 00:46:17.050 where Harris has this tiny margin, that's actually the right number. 00:46:17.270 --> 00:46:19.470 Okay. Or B, they're right on the money. 00:46:20.260 --> 00:46:24.440 They did it way over on the other direction, which means that they're way over 00:46:24.440 --> 00:46:27.580 counting Trump and Harris is really significantly ahead. 00:46:27.860 --> 00:46:31.640 Those are the only two possible outcomes I see based on this. 00:46:31.740 --> 00:46:35.420 Now, listen, do I have hard data that can show this? 00:46:35.820 --> 00:46:39.780 No, no, no, because there isn't because the margins are that small. 00:46:39.880 --> 00:46:41.420 We'll find out in a couple of days. 00:46:41.620 --> 00:46:46.940 But we'll find out in a couple of days. But all I've got to go on is just too 00:46:46.940 --> 00:46:50.980 many years of seeing how humans react to this kind of mistakes of how the hell they reacted. 00:46:51.060 --> 00:46:55.580 Usually the way that they react is, well, shit, if we underestimated them the 00:46:55.580 --> 00:46:57.980 last two times, we're sure as hell not going to do it again. 00:46:58.540 --> 00:47:03.020 Yeah, no, absolutely. There are a few indications. And to be clear, 00:47:03.820 --> 00:47:08.940 either way, let's say there's a couple point error. 00:47:09.600 --> 00:47:15.080 I mean, look, this is the whole reason I do this whole category of all the states 00:47:15.080 --> 00:47:17.800 under 5%, assume they could go either way, right? 00:47:18.140 --> 00:47:23.780 Because assume there's a systematic error of a few percentage in each direction. 00:47:24.060 --> 00:47:26.200 That's where you get this range of outcomes. 00:47:26.500 --> 00:47:31.680 At the moment, my range of quote-unquote reasonable outcomes saying that any 00:47:31.680 --> 00:47:36.680 close state could go either way goes from Harris winning by 112 electoral votes 00:47:36.680 --> 00:47:38.880 to Trump winning by 94 electoral votes. 00:47:39.320 --> 00:47:39.620 Right. 00:47:39.880 --> 00:47:44.440 Yes. If everybody wins the states they're ahead on, has Trump slightly ahead 00:47:44.440 --> 00:47:48.160 of Biden right now, but really that whole range is possible. 00:47:48.320 --> 00:47:50.140 Now I will be completely honest. 00:47:50.850 --> 00:47:58.770 I would feel, oh, so much better if the straight poll average had Harris ahead, 00:47:58.770 --> 00:48:04.470 even if it was a small amount, right? I would feel better if we did that. 00:48:04.830 --> 00:48:09.370 But look, but also, you know, you talked about last week, the analysis that 00:48:09.370 --> 00:48:14.050 you did on in terms of the number of shit polls that have been coming out. 00:48:14.110 --> 00:48:17.050 And there was an article this week also in the New York Times that specifically 00:48:17.050 --> 00:48:20.850 talked about this as well, how they have noticed this as well. 00:48:20.850 --> 00:48:24.670 I think the effect this has is about a percent on the tipping point, 00:48:24.870 --> 00:48:30.310 although that's going to vary day to day as the new polls come in and what's in and out. 00:48:30.790 --> 00:48:34.670 I'm probably going to do another election graphs update this afternoon, 00:48:34.890 --> 00:48:36.590 so after this is all recorded and done. 00:48:36.730 --> 00:48:40.350 So go check electiongraphs.com on Sunday or something and see, 00:48:40.450 --> 00:48:42.350 because I am going to repeat that analysis. 00:48:42.510 --> 00:48:47.350 I did not repeat it in the most recent post I put out, but I will repeat it in the next one. 00:48:47.510 --> 00:48:52.070 And probably also in the final, I'll probably do two more posts before election 00:48:52.070 --> 00:48:53.310 results start to come in. 00:48:53.390 --> 00:48:56.130 And I will include that analysis in both to see what that's doing. 00:48:56.550 --> 00:49:01.630 But from the previous analysis, it was about a point. It was about one percentage point. 00:49:01.950 --> 00:49:07.930 And when you, and if you move all the, if you move all the polls by a percent, 00:49:08.130 --> 00:49:09.010 it makes a big difference. 00:49:09.310 --> 00:49:14.210 Well, right now, this very second, if you moved all the polls 1% to the left, 00:49:14.410 --> 00:49:19.570 it would only add Pennsylvania to Harris's totals, but that would be enough 00:49:19.570 --> 00:49:21.710 to switch it from a Trump win to a Harris win. 00:49:22.250 --> 00:49:30.610 Exactly. I mean, that's it. This is how the ridiculously stupidly closest stupid 00:49:30.610 --> 00:49:33.090 thing is. This is just why it's just not. 00:49:33.570 --> 00:49:39.590 I hate this thing and and i think and i think that we will know in a few days 00:49:39.590 --> 00:49:43.290 but like i i feel i feel like, 00:49:44.350 --> 00:49:51.530 you know my my my odds right now are giving harris let's see according to my models, 00:49:52.270 --> 00:49:56.190 and and accounting for the fact that i trust the uniform swing run a little 00:49:56.190 --> 00:50:01.430 bit better or the truth is closer to that one about a 25 chance a one in four 00:50:01.430 --> 00:50:05.690 chance if like the polling errors are like they have been the last four years. 00:50:05.990 --> 00:50:11.710 But I think there's a lot of good arguments for what you just said, 00:50:11.710 --> 00:50:15.730 that the polling errors are probably the other direction this time around. 00:50:16.350 --> 00:50:21.850 Now, I'm not putting that in my models. The models assume that the past is a 00:50:21.850 --> 00:50:23.070 good predictor of the future. 00:50:23.350 --> 00:50:27.770 But as they always say, you know, past performance is not an indicator of future results. 00:50:28.510 --> 00:50:31.310 You know, it goes back to the gambler's fallacy, man. 00:50:31.570 --> 00:50:32.390 Yeah. So, okay. 00:50:32.510 --> 00:50:35.730 So, you know, it's like, hey, just, you know, hey, you know, 00:50:35.830 --> 00:50:38.930 oh, well, I didn't hit a six the last few times. I'm definitely, 00:50:39.150 --> 00:50:40.230 you know, the last 20 times. 00:50:40.310 --> 00:50:40.710 I'm due. 00:50:40.910 --> 00:50:44.570 Yeah. My odds, I'm due for a six. No, no, you never are. No, 00:50:44.710 --> 00:50:47.170 the odds are still the same. Every damn time. 00:50:47.430 --> 00:50:53.890 Well, the thing is with this kind of problem, though, the kinds of logic, it's not independent. 00:50:54.150 --> 00:50:57.630 Like for the gambler's fallacy, it's each time is independent. 00:50:57.950 --> 00:51:02.010 Like, but the argument you gave, wait, wait, the argument you gave is a prime 00:51:02.010 --> 00:51:03.350 example why that's not the case. 00:51:03.570 --> 00:51:09.690 There is an expectation you can build that it will be wrong in a certain way 00:51:09.690 --> 00:51:11.650 because of what's happened in the past. 00:51:12.350 --> 00:51:18.170 Now, sometimes it's like the intention of me using the last four elections was 00:51:18.170 --> 00:51:21.990 sort of like, hey, over the course of four, and I intend next time around in 00:51:21.990 --> 00:51:24.110 four years, I'll use five. 00:51:24.430 --> 00:51:28.550 Like I was going to, the desired timeframe was five elections, 00:51:28.690 --> 00:51:31.990 but I hadn't been doing this yet for five elections. So I had to use four. 00:51:32.790 --> 00:51:37.250 But the idea is over the course of that much time, there'll probably be errors 00:51:37.250 --> 00:51:43.330 in both directions. and you're basically measuring the magnitude of the variance and blah, blah, blah. 00:51:43.630 --> 00:51:45.690 And, you know, and it'll sort of wash out. 00:51:46.050 --> 00:51:50.450 The reality of the last four election cycles is that if you average them out, 00:51:50.650 --> 00:51:55.290 they've underestimated a Republican more than a Democrat. So that's the way it works this time. 00:51:55.410 --> 00:52:00.550 But like, but yeah, it's not completely random, but it's still... 00:52:01.370 --> 00:52:06.830 Yeah, maybe it's more likely, slightly, that they, all things being equal, 00:52:06.830 --> 00:52:11.690 that the Republicans would be underestimated again, but all things aren't equal. 00:52:12.470 --> 00:52:16.870 Right. Exactly. All of the things that you talked about before, 00:52:16.870 --> 00:52:22.110 and I'll also add now that we do have the early voting tea leaves and bones 00:52:22.110 --> 00:52:25.930 to shake and read like the entrails and all this kind of stuff. 00:52:26.910 --> 00:52:32.530 Like the one thing, like most of the early vote stuff at this point, I discount. 00:52:32.950 --> 00:52:37.810 Like they do partisan breakdowns, like how many Republicans have returned, 00:52:37.970 --> 00:52:39.970 how many Democrats have returned, blah, blah, blah. 00:52:40.770 --> 00:52:43.810 But that is impacted by a whole bunch of things. 00:52:43.990 --> 00:52:47.610 That involves cases where you're just moving votes and like, 00:52:47.930 --> 00:52:52.790 you know, people are early voting this time that that in person a day of voted 00:52:52.790 --> 00:52:55.470 last time and the other way around. And so it washes out. 00:52:55.870 --> 00:53:00.510 Also, you know, a big part of the Harris campaign is trying to appeal to Republicans. 00:53:00.510 --> 00:53:06.430 So you may have registered Republicans voting for Harris at numbers that are unknown right now. 00:53:07.090 --> 00:53:10.850 You know, and maybe some the other way, registered Democrats voting for Trump. 00:53:10.850 --> 00:53:16.470 And so it's hard to read that into the partisan numbers, but we have had some 00:53:16.470 --> 00:53:20.450 numbers on gender and age. 00:53:20.590 --> 00:53:26.970 And those right now are looking really good for Harris in terms of women are 00:53:26.970 --> 00:53:30.030 way overrepresented in those numbers. 00:53:31.870 --> 00:53:38.370 The last numbers i saw were in terms of early vote it's like 55 45 women right now, 00:53:39.610 --> 00:53:47.590 and women on all the other polling when you look at crosstabs the gender gap is huge this year, 00:53:48.570 --> 00:53:54.110 and you know of course a lot of that is due to abortion a lot of that is just 00:53:54.110 --> 00:53:57.790 you know donald Trump is a misogynist pig, you know? 00:53:58.450 --> 00:54:02.250 And so you, you have that effect. 00:54:02.550 --> 00:54:06.090 Now I did see one thing that showed in at least some States. 00:54:06.390 --> 00:54:10.810 Yeah, it's 55, 45, but it was four years ago too. 00:54:11.710 --> 00:54:16.110 Like apparently women just like early voting more than men, you know? 00:54:16.410 --> 00:54:21.550 So maybe it's hard to read that it does look like younger people are, 00:54:21.550 --> 00:54:26.090 are at higher percentages than normal as well. 00:54:26.290 --> 00:54:30.690 They were really high in 2020 and 2022 as well, by the way. 00:54:30.990 --> 00:54:38.570 But younger folks are also another demographic that is highly skewed to Democrats right now. 00:54:39.130 --> 00:54:42.890 And so those, those all look good. So those all make me feel optimistic. 00:54:43.270 --> 00:54:44.710 I really hope. 00:54:45.480 --> 00:54:52.340 I, I, I, I, that young people turn out a lot more than they have before and 00:54:52.340 --> 00:54:54.360 not, and, and not with the bullshit that. 00:54:54.580 --> 00:54:56.260 And no, no Jill Stein votes. 00:54:56.600 --> 00:55:02.020 Yeah. And, and I do think that from what, you know, we talk about vibes and 00:55:02.020 --> 00:55:03.240 we talk about what we hear. 00:55:03.440 --> 00:55:03.740 Yeah. 00:55:04.180 --> 00:55:08.700 The vibes in this election are totally different than 2016 in terms of who the 00:55:08.700 --> 00:55:09.960 woman is at the top of the ticket. 00:55:10.180 --> 00:55:13.480 A lot of young, a lot of young people distrusted Hillary. 00:55:13.960 --> 00:55:17.040 Well. Well, it's not just young people. 00:55:17.220 --> 00:55:22.740 Remember, before she ran for president, there's been a campaign going decades 00:55:22.740 --> 00:55:24.740 to vilify Hillary Clinton. 00:55:24.740 --> 00:55:28.460 But I'm talking specifically about the younger demographic. 00:55:28.760 --> 00:55:34.820 They did not see Hillary the way that they see Kamala. 00:55:35.180 --> 00:55:35.320 Right. 00:55:35.420 --> 00:55:39.880 Okay? There is a totally different vibe. 00:55:39.880 --> 00:55:46.760 And another thing, younger people in general, in these generations, 00:55:47.260 --> 00:55:55.020 have been far more known to publicly express their sexual orientation, 00:55:55.560 --> 00:56:00.980 their sexual preference, to know a lot more people that are transgender, 00:56:00.980 --> 00:56:03.780 that are gay, than previous generations. 00:56:04.020 --> 00:56:04.400 Absolutely. 00:56:04.400 --> 00:56:13.580 And I really hope that they take that messaging that the GOP is doing, 00:56:13.760 --> 00:56:20.640 which is basically vilifying so many of them, so many of their friends, 00:56:21.020 --> 00:56:23.560 so many of their family. 00:56:23.560 --> 00:56:31.840 And understand how important it is to not allow somebody that wants to make 00:56:31.840 --> 00:56:34.960 their expression of their true self a crime. 00:56:35.810 --> 00:56:40.990 Yeah. I mean, like for, I mean, and of course this is going to vary from red 00:56:40.990 --> 00:56:43.850 state to blue state to purple state and from community to community, 00:56:43.850 --> 00:56:48.330 but there are huge portions of that generation, 00:56:48.730 --> 00:56:54.270 well over half, huge portions of that generation, that the fact this is even 00:56:54.270 --> 00:56:57.570 a question is offensive to their core. 00:56:57.930 --> 00:56:58.470 Yeah. 00:56:58.470 --> 00:57:04.510 You know, the fact that it's even being discussed as opposed to taken as the 00:57:04.510 --> 00:57:10.070 absolute default that, of course, these people should be who they are. 00:57:10.450 --> 00:57:10.910 Yeah. 00:57:11.450 --> 00:57:19.570 You know, and, and, you know, a whole bunch of the, this is why right now, the, that generation, 00:57:19.990 --> 00:57:24.910 well, this is why, this is one of the reasons why that generation is skewed 00:57:24.910 --> 00:57:26.930 highly Democrat right now. 00:57:26.930 --> 00:57:30.050 Now at some 00:57:30.050 --> 00:57:37.090 point presumably parties evolve and change and the republicans will evolve their 00:57:37.090 --> 00:57:41.450 positions to something different in response to the public pressure but that's 00:57:41.450 --> 00:57:45.410 not right now right now that's not right now right now they are doubling down 00:57:45.410 --> 00:57:48.110 on all this stuff doubling doubling down. 00:57:48.110 --> 00:57:53.010 They're they're they're advocating violence against these people they're they're 00:57:53.010 --> 00:57:58.550 they're criminalizing being who they are and let's not forget about women's rights. 00:57:58.550 --> 00:57:59.270 As well. 00:57:59.270 --> 00:58:07.350 Shit man there's a whole bunch of republicans this week talking about you know 00:58:07.350 --> 00:58:09.030 they want to get rid of the 13th amendment. 00:58:09.030 --> 00:58:11.750 Well and and more i mean. 00:58:11.750 --> 00:58:15.430 They really they they they they wanted to eliminate the. 00:58:15.430 --> 00:58:18.110 Women's right to vote there have been i was like 00:58:18.110 --> 00:58:20.890 said that specifically there have been but even more 00:58:20.890 --> 00:58:23.730 so this week what has been going around i mean is that 00:58:23.730 --> 00:58:27.470 extreme is is the the harris campaign that built 00:58:27.470 --> 00:58:30.250 off this was building on social media anyway but the harris 00:58:30.250 --> 00:58:37.270 campaign actually put out an ad basically talking to women whose husbands were 00:58:37.270 --> 00:58:42.290 diehard maga saying you know this is private you don't have to tell them you 00:58:42.290 --> 00:58:47.110 know right you can vote for harris you know you don't have to tell them it's 00:58:47.110 --> 00:58:49.050 private it's completely like whatever, 00:58:49.890 --> 00:58:56.430 and a whole bunch of conservative men including high profile oh my god like 00:58:56.430 --> 00:59:04.550 burst a gasket over this that the the mere conception that their wife might 00:59:04.550 --> 00:59:08.810 not vote the way they want them to was throwing them into conniption fits. 00:59:10.050 --> 00:59:17.630 You know, it's so ridiculous. My mom and my dad, since I was very little, have not voted aligned. 00:59:17.890 --> 00:59:21.490 My mom in Puerto Rico voted for the statehood party. 00:59:21.690 --> 00:59:27.250 My dad voted for the party that wanted to remain in the current status quo. And that was a known... 00:59:27.970 --> 00:59:31.590 And by the way, those... Listen, those back then... 00:59:32.520 --> 00:59:37.080 It was so controversial. I mean, listen, this is the kind of stuff that erupted 00:59:37.080 --> 00:59:39.760 into violent fights, okay, in places. 00:59:40.140 --> 00:59:43.900 But my mom and dad showed me that, hey, you know what? 00:59:44.180 --> 00:59:51.100 You can't be, you know, now neither of those parties had positions like these psychopaths, okay? 00:59:51.260 --> 00:59:57.920 It was just about, you know, about the status of our political relationship with the United States. 00:59:58.080 --> 01:00:03.960 But they voted. it man my mom was very pro one party my dad was very pro the 01:00:03.960 --> 01:00:08.340 other party and that was perfectly fine that's okay when i hear people in 2024 01:00:08.340 --> 01:00:13.620 where i got raised in a family that had that happen regularly and i hear this 01:00:13.620 --> 01:00:17.540 and i am like well i mean i'm like what the hell well. 01:00:17.540 --> 01:00:23.420 Look at this at this point by the way like i honestly see like a difference 01:00:23.420 --> 01:00:27.220 of that sort like if you're if you're a diehard mega on one side of the couple 01:00:27.220 --> 01:00:29.320 and on the other side of the couple you're like. 01:00:29.320 --> 01:00:34.520 I don't even know how the hell the thing is i'm like hard maga the diehard maga 01:00:34.520 --> 01:00:39.700 right now is holding positions that basically are that women have no value yeah 01:00:39.700 --> 01:00:44.820 like i and i i don't see how you i don't see how you i see. 01:00:44.820 --> 01:00:49.640 This as a perfectly valid reason for divorce i mean this is what happened to george conway right. 01:00:49.640 --> 01:00:51.120 Yes but. 01:00:51.120 --> 01:00:57.140 Like i don't see how that survives in unless you really like don't care much, 01:00:57.280 --> 01:01:02.500 but if, but the point is, I see it as a legitimate reason to like dump your damn husband. 01:01:02.900 --> 01:01:08.980 But the, the idea that the sort of the, the thing that is being openly expressed 01:01:08.980 --> 01:01:13.500 by many of these conservative men is that I am the head of the household. 01:01:13.700 --> 01:01:20.600 I am the leader. I get to decide what is happening here. And it is my wife's duty. 01:01:21.260 --> 01:01:26.420 To vote the way i tell her to um you know uh what what's his name uh one of 01:01:26.420 --> 01:01:32.320 the people on fox i forget which one it was waters uh waters waters said specifically 01:01:32.320 --> 01:01:37.780 that if my wife was voting against my issues that's the same as cheating on me. 01:01:37.780 --> 01:01:43.220 Well let me let me break it to mr waters you know i know his mom despises his political. 01:01:43.220 --> 01:01:44.120 Positions as well. 01:01:44.120 --> 01:01:49.120 And has openly said it on television, that basically his son is a fucking grifter loser. 01:01:49.800 --> 01:01:53.880 That's pretty bad. I'll tell you what, man, if I had my mom going out there 01:01:53.880 --> 01:01:59.580 calling me out that bad, you would think that you would be embarrassed, but that guy is just... 01:01:59.580 --> 01:02:02.200 We need to move on to other things. So one more polling thing. 01:02:02.200 --> 01:02:02.420 Other things? 01:02:02.580 --> 01:02:03.120 One more polling thing. 01:02:03.120 --> 01:02:03.960 One more polling thing. 01:02:04.180 --> 01:02:07.400 You had talked about the potential effects, and we'll talk more about this in 01:02:07.400 --> 01:02:12.780 the next segment, I'm sure, but potential effects of the Donald Trump rally 01:02:12.780 --> 01:02:14.260 at Madison Square Garden. 01:02:14.340 --> 01:02:17.040 And we'll talk about the actual rally later. I'm only going to talk about polling. 01:02:17.260 --> 01:02:20.640 There has been a bunch of polls since then. 01:02:21.480 --> 01:02:28.760 The effect was somewhat mixed in the polls, but overall, 01:02:28.780 --> 01:02:32.440 it did seem like that caused 01:02:32.440 --> 01:02:37.420 a significant approximately one 01:02:37.420 --> 01:02:40.900 percentage point dip in the tipping point in 01:02:40.900 --> 01:02:45.960 the days immediately after that event that in 01:02:45.960 --> 01:02:48.860 in the polls afterward and by the 01:02:48.860 --> 01:02:52.520 tipping point by the way this means primarily pennsylvania because 01:02:52.520 --> 01:02:56.180 you know because pennsylvania has been the tipping point for the last week or 01:02:56.180 --> 01:03:00.580 two yeah well occasionally other things but mostly pennsylvania pennsylvania 01:03:00.580 --> 01:03:06.060 yeah like so it looks like about a one percent move because of that towards 01:03:06.060 --> 01:03:11.820 harris but since then that's popped back up in the other direction, 01:03:12.100 --> 01:03:14.120 back to almost where it was. 01:03:14.540 --> 01:03:19.540 But, but, and I want to put this out there explicitly, it looks like. 01:03:20.060 --> 01:03:25.660 That is due to a couple of outliers that I don't necessarily believe. 01:03:25.660 --> 01:03:32.520 If you take them out, I think we're actually seeing approximately a 1% move 01:03:32.520 --> 01:03:37.820 so far, and we may see more of a move as more polls come in. 01:03:38.000 --> 01:03:41.760 Now, we have had a bunch of polls that are after that event. 01:03:41.760 --> 01:03:44.720 However like it takes a 01:03:44.720 --> 01:03:47.520 while for those like for those things 01:03:47.520 --> 01:03:50.580 to soak in to everybody who might care 01:03:50.580 --> 01:03:53.920 like there's some people who hear about it right away and change their minds 01:03:53.920 --> 01:03:59.260 and blah blah blah but it takes a while to soak in so we still have three days 01:03:59.260 --> 01:04:03.340 left we might see a little bit more of an effect from that like because because 01:04:03.340 --> 01:04:08.000 i think here's one thing here's my bottom line i think there was a 1% effect from it. 01:04:08.240 --> 01:04:12.340 That looks, it looks in the numbers that it's been reversed, 01:04:12.400 --> 01:04:16.700 but I think that's due to outliers that probably aren't real. So there you go. 01:04:17.540 --> 01:04:20.740 Here's one thing about what I'm seeing about the effect of this. 01:04:20.840 --> 01:04:24.840 There was a poll down here in Florida where they pulled Puerto Ricans. 01:04:25.260 --> 01:04:28.700 They only pulled Puerto Ricans. They didn't pull Latinos, but they pulled Puerto Ricans. 01:04:29.260 --> 01:04:34.000 And there was a massive shift against Trump because I had mentioned before that 01:04:34.000 --> 01:04:37.660 puerto ricans had been like supporting trump in some 70 percent rate. 01:04:37.660 --> 01:04:43.300 And by the way they're in florida there haven't been any polls that are entirely after this. 01:04:43.300 --> 01:04:48.060 Event now and so there is but but they did do a poll of puerto rican specifically 01:04:48.060 --> 01:04:53.580 to see that you know to track what the shift was it was a 20 shift amongst puerto 01:04:53.580 --> 01:04:58.220 ricans it was not a small shift and and and by and a 20 shift is a couple of 01:04:58.220 --> 01:05:01.520 hundred thousand votes it's not it's not in consequence Well. 01:05:01.600 --> 01:05:06.340 Yeah, I was going to say, in Pennsylvania specifically, there are about 500,000 Puerto Ricans. 01:05:06.420 --> 01:05:08.840 Yeah, Puerto Ricans are going to be voters. Okay, right. 01:05:09.000 --> 01:05:10.080 Yeah, Puerto Rican voters. 01:05:10.200 --> 01:05:13.740 Right. So it was a pretty significant shift. 01:05:13.840 --> 01:05:19.220 But there is one thing that I think probably polling is probably not able to 01:05:19.220 --> 01:05:21.580 capture, especially at this late time. 01:05:21.860 --> 01:05:23.560 Yeah, because there's just not enough time. 01:05:23.560 --> 01:05:30.680 No, but it's not just, the thing is that there has been a lot of other Latino groups that had been, 01:05:30.920 --> 01:05:33.660 you know, they have talked about the effect that Trump was having in grabbing 01:05:33.660 --> 01:05:39.100 Latino voters and how he had been, you know, successful in grabbing them. 01:05:39.900 --> 01:05:44.340 This thing, the effect it had in Puerto Rico is there has been many other Latino 01:05:44.340 --> 01:05:50.380 groups that have also, I've seen the public... 01:05:51.260 --> 01:05:57.560 Messaging has been extremely supportive of Puerto Ricans in the face of this, 01:05:57.660 --> 01:05:58.860 how they have been in sympathy. 01:05:59.060 --> 01:06:05.080 So I would not be surprised that this isn't just, this thing didn't just have 01:06:05.080 --> 01:06:10.420 an impact in terms of Puerto Rican voters, which is a significant block, okay? 01:06:10.660 --> 01:06:15.220 The thing is that it's very misunderstood, okay, which is another issue, okay? 01:06:15.560 --> 01:06:22.080 But the fact that many, many of the other Latino groups, I would, 01:06:22.200 --> 01:06:27.480 based on what I've seen in the public comments, I've also had a shift. 01:06:27.700 --> 01:06:32.600 I am going to surmise that when you aggregate all the Latino groups, 01:06:32.760 --> 01:06:36.940 that this had a significant impact on their voting intention, 01:06:37.240 --> 01:06:40.240 okay? It was just that shocking of a statement. 01:06:40.600 --> 01:06:47.960 You know, very few, very, very few candidates I have seen, or campaigns in this 01:06:47.960 --> 01:06:53.960 case specifically, have made a statement that has been so polarizing to one group specifically. 01:06:54.320 --> 01:06:59.640 Now, Yvonne, Trump says he had nothing to do with that. Even this morning, 01:06:59.640 --> 01:07:01.600 he was saying he still hasn't even seen the joke. 01:07:02.120 --> 01:07:05.080 Uh-huh. Yeah, sure. Uh-huh. 01:07:05.820 --> 01:07:11.300 Because it wasn't him, it was some jackass comedian, but his script was vetted by the campaign. 01:07:11.460 --> 01:07:15.320 They made him take out a reference to Kamala. All being a cunt. 01:07:16.460 --> 01:07:23.160 I was going to say the c word thank you ivan but yeah to kamala being yes they 01:07:23.160 --> 01:07:26.580 they they made him take out that reference but leave all the other stuff in 01:07:26.580 --> 01:07:29.700 so obviously at least someone on the campaign was like. 01:07:29.700 --> 01:07:34.040 Oh yeah porto ricans are garbage yeah yeah that's good uh yeah kamala being 01:07:34.040 --> 01:07:38.100 a cut uh no no no that's good no no no that's too far that's too far i'm like 01:07:38.100 --> 01:07:43.680 you know who the hell goes through that and it like arrives at such a fucking 01:07:43.680 --> 01:07:48.040 you know conclusion it's like just has to be the most. 01:07:49.320 --> 01:07:49.800 Okay, okay. 01:07:49.860 --> 01:07:50.280 But anyway. 01:07:50.540 --> 01:07:52.920 We're running out of time. We're running out of time before you have to go. 01:07:53.060 --> 01:07:56.160 I'm going to run the next break, and then we will come back. 01:07:56.360 --> 01:07:59.880 All I wanted to say on the polling for that event was it looked like about a 01:07:59.880 --> 01:08:05.340 1% effect before it reversed, but the reversal may be an illusion to the outliners. Maybe. 01:08:05.900 --> 01:08:10.600 Anyway, here comes a break. It's a wiki of the day, and when we come back, 01:08:10.780 --> 01:08:16.200 we'll power run through as much as we can get through before Yvonne has to leave. Here we go. 01:08:16.720 --> 01:08:20.080 Do, do, do. Hello. this is Neural Kimberly. 01:08:20.500 --> 01:08:24.380 I'm here to let you know about Sam the Curmudgeon's other podcasts, 01:08:24.600 --> 01:08:26.400 the Wiki of the Day podcasts. 01:08:26.760 --> 01:08:31.720 Wiki of the Day comes in three varieties, popular, random, and featured. 01:08:32.060 --> 01:08:37.680 Each highlights a new Wikipedia article each day, they just pick the articles differently. 01:08:37.940 --> 01:08:42.860 This week on popular Wiki of the Day, you would have heard this summary for Singham Again. 01:08:43.400 --> 01:08:49.120 Singam Again is a 2024 Indian Hindi language action film written and directed 01:08:49.120 --> 01:08:53.160 by Rohit Shetty, who also co-produced it under Rohit Shetty Pictures, 01:08:53.660 --> 01:08:55.620 alongside Reliance Entertainment, 01:08:56.160 --> 01:09:00.460 Geo Studios, and Daivin Films. The film stars A.J. 01:09:00.660 --> 01:09:06.120 Daivin, Akshay Kumar, Ranveer Singh, Tiger Shroff, Kareena Kapoor Khan, 01:09:06.540 --> 01:09:10.120 Deepika Padukone, Arjun Kapoor, and Jackie Shroff. 01:09:10.120 --> 01:09:14.940 It is the fifth installment of Shetty's Cop Universe franchise and a direct 01:09:14.940 --> 01:09:17.420 sequel to Singham Returns, 2014. 01:09:18.140 --> 01:09:23.080 The film was announced in September 2017 under the working title Singham 3, 01:09:23.340 --> 01:09:26.620 and the official title was announced in December 2022. 01:09:27.400 --> 01:09:33.520 Principal photography began in September 2023, and wrapped in September 2024. 01:09:34.180 --> 01:09:39.140 The film was shot in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Kashmir, and Sri Lanka. 01:09:39.140 --> 01:09:46.300 It was released on November 1, 2024, coinciding with the Volley in standard and IMAX formats. 01:09:47.190 --> 01:09:52.730 That's all there is to it. See? Fun, entertaining, educational. 01:09:53.150 --> 01:09:58.890 And short. Okay, now look for and subscribe to the Wiki of the Day family of 01:09:58.890 --> 01:10:04.650 podcasts on your podcast playing software of choice, or just go to wikioftheday.com 01:10:04.650 --> 01:10:06.050 to check out our archives. 01:10:06.370 --> 01:10:09.750 Now back to curmudgeon's corner. Do do do. 01:10:10.550 --> 01:10:15.410 Okay, one thing I forgot to say on the polling, just to, and I did this in my 01:10:15.410 --> 01:10:18.610 last blog post on electiongraphs.com if you want to look at that. 01:10:19.490 --> 01:10:21.710 But that was titled, what did I call it? 01:10:22.850 --> 01:10:26.870 More of the same, six days out, more of the same. But I did an exercise where 01:10:26.870 --> 01:10:29.090 instead of just looking at the current values, 01:10:29.290 --> 01:10:33.790 I took all of the central seven states and just looked at the overall trends 01:10:33.790 --> 01:10:37.910 and said, okay, if you actually trust the polling is roughly on, 01:10:38.070 --> 01:10:41.230 but don't look at the current value, look at sort of where they've been bouncing 01:10:41.230 --> 01:10:43.290 around and what's the center of that range. 01:10:43.890 --> 01:10:49.870 Here's my take on where you'd be. I'd give Wisconsin, Michigan to Harris for sure. 01:10:50.250 --> 01:10:53.910 I'd say Pennsylvania and Nevada are true toss up states. 01:10:54.110 --> 01:10:58.370 And you probably end up giving Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to Trump. 01:10:58.590 --> 01:11:03.430 If the polls are roughly on track, and you just take the center of the ranges 01:11:03.430 --> 01:11:05.010 that they've been bouncing around on. 01:11:05.250 --> 01:11:08.430 And if you do that, if they're in that order. 01:11:08.730 --> 01:11:12.970 Nevada doesn't matter. It's too small. And guess what? It all comes down to Pennsylvania. 01:11:13.210 --> 01:11:16.190 Yeah. That's what I was thinking. It all fucking comes down to Pennsylvania. 01:11:17.250 --> 01:11:22.910 If that's where it is. If the polls are systematically underestimating Harris, then Harris wins. 01:11:23.110 --> 01:11:26.230 If the polls are systematically underestimating Trump, then Trump wins. 01:11:26.710 --> 01:11:31.850 So there you go. That scenario that all comes down to Pennsylvania is the scenario 01:11:31.850 --> 01:11:33.450 where the polls are roughly right. 01:11:33.630 --> 01:11:35.130 So let me get this clear, Sam. 01:11:35.290 --> 01:11:35.650 Yes. 01:11:36.010 --> 01:11:39.630 We don't know what the fuck is going on, and then we'll just bite our nails 01:11:39.630 --> 01:11:41.510 until the fucking night of the election. 01:11:41.690 --> 01:11:45.470 That's right. That's right. And maybe the week of the election. 01:11:45.610 --> 01:11:49.250 It might take a while to get results in key states if they really do. 01:11:49.250 --> 01:11:51.370 It might take a while. 01:11:52.730 --> 01:11:56.570 And by the way, even the popular vote margin has narrowed. 01:11:56.710 --> 01:12:01.010 So I fully expect Harris will win the popular vote no matter what. 01:12:01.210 --> 01:12:08.610 But if it's really close, at first it will look like Trump is ahead in the popular vote. 01:12:08.750 --> 01:12:14.790 And Harris will only catch up once California finishes counting the votes, which takes like weeks. 01:12:15.830 --> 01:12:16.870 Yeah, they're super slow. 01:12:17.730 --> 01:12:24.510 Okay. So what else should we have? I do want to, there's more presidential stuff, 01:12:24.630 --> 01:12:28.090 but I don't want to ignore, like, what are our final thoughts on the House and Senate? 01:12:29.230 --> 01:12:30.590 It's too close to call. 01:12:30.770 --> 01:12:34.170 We also don't know. Same damn thing. We don't know. 01:12:34.610 --> 01:12:38.430 It's too close to call. I mean, I just, you know. 01:12:39.050 --> 01:12:44.590 If I had to guess, my guess is the same as it was at our prediction show last December. 01:12:45.370 --> 01:12:49.930 Democrats take back the House, but they lose the Senate. If I had to guess. 01:12:49.930 --> 01:12:56.590 But these are also too close, and it depends on if they're all too close to call. And if Polo. 01:12:56.790 --> 01:13:01.310 They're all too effing close to call. I mean, look, you know what I was talking 01:13:01.310 --> 01:13:05.090 about, you know, and some of the coattails related to some of the stuff. 01:13:06.270 --> 01:13:09.510 You know, I don't know, man. I don't know. 01:13:10.290 --> 01:13:15.670 You know, Ted Cruz is a deeply unpopular guy. Ted Cruz is unpopular amongst Republicans. 01:13:16.630 --> 01:13:20.090 And the guy who's been running against them has been running a very good campaign 01:13:20.090 --> 01:13:22.030 and that campaign was close that 01:13:22.030 --> 01:13:26.390 fan pain was in close i mean a lot closer than it would be with the same, 01:13:27.410 --> 01:13:33.070 republican okay it always say if i would put mitt romney in texas okay he would 01:13:33.070 --> 01:13:39.030 probably be ahead by 15 points okay but instead it's ted cruz and so you've 01:13:39.030 --> 01:13:43.650 got this this nail biter the same in florida But look, 01:13:44.810 --> 01:13:47.390 some of the recent polls had Rick Scott ahead by four. 01:13:47.890 --> 01:13:55.990 Rick Scott isn't as hated as Ted Cruz, but man, that guy is not loved either. 01:13:56.230 --> 01:14:02.530 There is no, you know, passionate Rick Scott supporters don't really exist. 01:14:03.190 --> 01:14:07.910 Okay. The guy is just one of these like real weasels. 01:14:08.930 --> 01:14:12.990 And it's just, you know, he managed to win. 01:14:13.250 --> 01:14:18.550 The 2018 by less than 20,000 votes. 01:14:18.790 --> 01:14:22.730 It was super thin. It was paper thin, the margin. 01:14:24.070 --> 01:14:29.550 He has a woman running against him. There's an abortion thing on the ballot. 01:14:30.410 --> 01:14:37.810 Rick Scott this week was scrambling to disassociate himself to all the Puerto 01:14:37.810 --> 01:14:40.230 Rico is garbage comments this week. 01:14:40.270 --> 01:14:46.090 Because he knows that this can be close because he's lived it before. 01:14:46.670 --> 01:14:52.930 And so I don't know. But, I mean, given how the state has been, 01:14:53.430 --> 01:14:56.050 I mean, you have to give the edge to Scott there. 01:14:57.990 --> 01:15:00.950 I just don't, I don't know. I don't know. 01:15:01.150 --> 01:15:06.970 Look, in 2020, we thought that we wouldn't get a single Georgia seat. 01:15:07.270 --> 01:15:08.490 Right. And you ended up with two. 01:15:08.630 --> 01:15:13.250 And we got, and we ended up with two. So that's the whole thing about this. 01:15:13.870 --> 01:15:19.510 The data tells you that the odds are stacked against the Democrats, 01:15:19.510 --> 01:15:22.930 but at the same time, that's what we thought four years ago, 01:15:22.930 --> 01:15:26.370 and it turned out that, well, we got the Senate. 01:15:26.790 --> 01:15:30.690 Well, I think there is potentially a coattails effect here, right? 01:15:31.290 --> 01:15:37.570 If we, in fact, if polls are systematically understating Harris, Kamala. 01:15:37.610 --> 01:15:37.750 Right. 01:15:38.570 --> 01:15:41.910 I've been saying Harris because I keep messing up her first name. Sorry. 01:15:43.590 --> 01:15:48.070 But if the polls are systematically underestimating her and she's actually doing 01:15:48.070 --> 01:15:54.850 strongly in all of these states, then that there may be Senate coattails that go along with that. 01:15:55.150 --> 01:15:59.030 On the other hand, if they're underestimating Trump again, remember what happened 01:15:59.030 --> 01:16:01.530 to the Senate races four years ago. 01:16:01.830 --> 01:16:04.990 Like we thought like Lindsey Graham was in danger. 01:16:05.530 --> 01:16:10.330 We, you know, there are a whole bunch of Republican senators we thought were 01:16:10.330 --> 01:16:15.330 in danger that it was going to be close. It was going to be way closer than it had been in the past. 01:16:15.490 --> 01:16:20.570 And instead, the Republicans handily won those races. It wasn't close. 01:16:20.810 --> 01:16:22.450 Yeah, but we won Arizona. 01:16:22.970 --> 01:16:23.510 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:16:24.090 --> 01:16:29.550 But there were counters to that. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. 01:16:29.810 --> 01:16:33.430 I mean, we had a number of those that turned the other way. 01:16:33.870 --> 01:16:36.950 And it's just because it's so close. So therefore, it's like, 01:16:37.030 --> 01:16:41.030 I wouldn't be surprised by any of the outcomes like right now at this point 01:16:41.030 --> 01:16:42.930 in the Senate. But I just would not. 01:16:43.330 --> 01:16:47.010 And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome in the House either. 01:16:47.210 --> 01:16:50.650 Although I think the Democrats have a stronger case there. 01:16:50.930 --> 01:16:55.270 But again, the same effects make this close too and could go either way. 01:16:55.710 --> 01:16:57.070 Okay, we got the House and the Senate. 01:16:57.270 --> 01:16:57.670 Yeah. 01:16:58.660 --> 01:17:02.620 And we've talked the presidential to death. 01:17:02.820 --> 01:17:09.700 A final prediction for me. I'm going to say, despite what my models say, 01:17:09.980 --> 01:17:14.320 that she only has a 25% chance, I'm going to say Harris pulls it out and wins. 01:17:14.600 --> 01:17:21.920 And maybe it's not even close. Maybe she wins easily. But I'll be fully honest. 01:17:22.660 --> 01:17:26.620 A lot of this is my hope speaking. 01:17:26.620 --> 01:17:33.540 Like i i have reasons that seem rational to do that but maybe i'm like i'm trying 01:17:33.540 --> 01:17:37.120 to find the reasons to get the answer i want but i'm gonna predict harris wins 01:17:37.120 --> 01:17:43.540 because frankly the alternative is really bad you know i well. 01:17:43.540 --> 01:17:47.400 I i'm gonna go with like look i'm not gonna make any. 01:17:47.400 --> 01:17:48.140 Predictions right. 01:17:48.140 --> 01:17:56.100 Now uh i i i i sincerely hope that harris wins but my prediction already for this year i I already. 01:17:56.100 --> 01:17:58.380 Lost. 01:17:59.020 --> 01:18:00.480 Well, that was pain was one. 01:18:00.680 --> 01:18:01.660 Fidel Castro will die. 01:18:01.680 --> 01:18:01.900 Always. 01:18:02.240 --> 01:18:02.440 Again. 01:18:03.140 --> 01:18:07.840 Fidel Castro will die again. Okay. I think he's still dead. But I believe, 01:18:08.100 --> 01:18:10.180 I predicted that Biden would win. 01:18:10.500 --> 01:18:13.660 Obviously, already wrong. I already lost. 01:18:13.800 --> 01:18:14.740 My prediction. 01:18:14.920 --> 01:18:17.580 I don't think I'm allowed. I don't think I'm allowed. 01:18:17.740 --> 01:18:18.360 No substitution. 01:18:18.920 --> 01:18:23.640 No, I said, but no substitution. So I already lost that prediction. 01:18:23.640 --> 01:18:25.680 My prediction was Trump was going to win back from in December. 01:18:25.820 --> 01:18:29.620 I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. 01:18:30.780 --> 01:18:35.320 I, you know, so I, I'm already lost on that one. 01:18:36.180 --> 01:18:43.280 I am, you know, I am really hoping that, you know, that, that, that Trump loses. 01:18:43.560 --> 01:18:46.020 I don't know if that's going to happen. 01:18:46.860 --> 01:18:51.720 I i don't know what's going to happen all i know is what i hope is going to 01:18:51.720 --> 01:18:56.280 happen that's all okay and in other news just to just to provide an update because 01:18:56.280 --> 01:19:01.040 we used to go to this restaurant very much okay newsflash just came in fridays 01:19:01.040 --> 01:19:03.760 file for break fridays file for break yep i see. 01:19:03.760 --> 01:19:05.060 It on my screen right now too. 01:19:05.060 --> 01:19:11.160 It just popped up in the news you know and man we used to go very we talked. 01:19:11.160 --> 01:19:15.600 We talked a little while ago about like uh the closest one to me and i got it 01:19:15.600 --> 01:19:18.660 wrong and then we looked it up and the closest one to me is. 01:19:18.660 --> 01:19:19.540 Spokane. The Chili's. 01:19:19.640 --> 01:19:23.720 Oh, that was Chili's? No, that was Chili's. No, no, it was about Chili's. 01:19:23.720 --> 01:19:26.520 Oh, that was Chili's. You're right, you're right. That wasn't Friday's. 01:19:26.900 --> 01:19:30.360 But yeah, Friday's, Friday's filing for bankruptcy. Now, filing for bankruptcy 01:19:30.360 --> 01:19:35.420 does not mean necessarily that all the stores will disappear. They might. 01:19:35.600 --> 01:19:40.020 But they've been doing terribly for a long, long time. 01:19:40.040 --> 01:19:46.460 I think that many of the restaurant chains that have been doing poorly before 01:19:46.460 --> 01:19:49.360 the pandemic with all the changes that happened. 01:19:49.700 --> 01:19:51.660 It just really, if they were like. 01:19:51.760 --> 01:19:55.320 Okay, you got to go soon. Let's finish up the election stuff. 01:19:55.980 --> 01:19:58.220 Because you got to leave very soon. 01:19:58.440 --> 01:20:00.380 Well, sorry, but we had a- Breaking news. 01:20:00.580 --> 01:20:01.800 Breaking news. It's important. 01:20:01.920 --> 01:20:02.760 Breaking news. 01:20:03.720 --> 01:20:04.120 Okay. 01:20:05.020 --> 01:20:08.400 Isn't that the place that Rebecca threatened Pete with a knife? 01:20:08.760 --> 01:20:09.340 I don't know. 01:20:10.080 --> 01:20:13.940 Well, anyway, Pete, if he listens to this, I think it was Rebecca that threatened Pete with a knife. 01:20:13.940 --> 01:20:14.380 Out of Friday. 01:20:14.500 --> 01:20:19.340 Not somewhere i think it was a fridays i think it was at a fridays that's it 01:20:19.340 --> 01:20:22.840 yeah well this is the kind of stuff that happened we're in college and drunk sorry. 01:20:23.360 --> 01:20:25.260 Yeah okay anyway anyway, 01:20:26.370 --> 01:20:32.210 And anything more about the Madison Square Garden Nazi slash Klan rally that 01:20:32.210 --> 01:20:34.470 had there? I mean, aside from Puerto Rico comment. 01:20:35.050 --> 01:20:40.610 Aside from aside from that, you know, the thing is that what that probably wasn't 01:20:40.610 --> 01:20:43.690 even the most offensive thing that happened as far as I could tell. 01:20:44.650 --> 01:20:48.290 It just happened to be the one that Greg on our Commudgeon's Corner Slack just 01:20:48.290 --> 01:20:55.790 pointed out, in addition to the PR garbage, it had somebody who called Harris the Antichrist. 01:20:55.790 --> 01:20:56.370 Harris. 01:20:56.530 --> 01:20:59.750 Tucker made a racist statement about her as well. 01:21:00.590 --> 01:21:07.370 There were practically, oh, and Giuliani said some really unhinged stuff there too. 01:21:07.890 --> 01:21:13.430 It was just the whole thing. I've seen people describe it as just, 01:21:13.490 --> 01:21:19.310 it was just a hate speech event from beginning to end practically. 01:21:19.930 --> 01:21:26.310 It was alienating to anybody who is not a straight white male Christian, 01:21:27.670 --> 01:21:31.130 like, was pushed away by that. 01:21:31.270 --> 01:21:35.150 I try to see if I can find somebody summarizing all the things, 01:21:35.430 --> 01:21:41.230 the offensive things that happened, but, you know, I haven't found it yet. 01:21:41.350 --> 01:21:47.150 But it's just, but I, you know, you know, but there were just, 01:21:49.110 --> 01:21:56.250 somebody said msg rallies right sets a bar not as bad as hitler. 01:21:58.670 --> 01:22:08.390 This is this is this is the bar at or or at you know it's just i i, 01:22:09.890 --> 01:22:15.950 you know i don't know what what what to say about this it's just you know when that's the bar, 01:22:17.270 --> 01:22:20.950 oh it's just i i just you 01:22:20.950 --> 01:22:23.830 know it's just crazy i mean this is the bar 01:22:23.830 --> 01:22:26.770 that we're at this is you know oh 01:22:26.770 --> 01:22:29.450 oh oh yeah i i mean and by 01:22:29.450 --> 01:22:32.530 the way i you know they say 01:22:32.530 --> 01:22:36.690 it's not as bad as hitler but mass deportations 01:22:36.690 --> 01:22:39.930 you know was a big part of 01:22:39.930 --> 01:22:42.570 what hitler did now he's not he's not saying that they're going 01:22:42.570 --> 01:22:48.250 to get sent to you know the gas chambers maybe that's about the only thing that 01:22:48.250 --> 01:22:52.170 we he's not he hasn't purported that he's going to set up gas chambers but but 01:22:52.170 --> 01:22:57.730 hey you know don't put it past them um yeah i mean he didn't want he didn't 01:22:57.730 --> 01:23:01.410 want a firing squad for for liz cheney this week well. 01:23:01.410 --> 01:23:07.690 And in terms of the deportation they they've explicitly said they want like 01:23:07.690 --> 01:23:11.010 camps to put these people in before they can deport them. 01:23:11.010 --> 01:23:12.430 And what. 01:23:12.430 --> 01:23:15.890 The hell you're and you're talking millions of people that they want to do. 01:23:15.890 --> 01:23:19.890 And by the way concentration camps okay good and and and. 01:23:19.890 --> 01:23:24.430 Basically and by the way they've made it clear at this point that they're not 01:23:24.430 --> 01:23:29.550 just talking illegal immigrants, there's a significant chunk of legal immigrants 01:23:29.550 --> 01:23:31.070 that they want to deport to. 01:23:31.270 --> 01:23:31.630 Correct. 01:23:31.690 --> 01:23:35.210 They want to revoke their immigration status and send them the hell out of here. 01:23:35.370 --> 01:23:40.210 And they've previously made statements. They want to get rid of birthright citizenship as well. 01:23:40.650 --> 01:23:40.950 Correct. 01:23:41.330 --> 01:23:46.170 You know, so it's not even legal and illegal. 01:23:46.430 --> 01:23:50.410 It's not just illegal immigrants. It's not just legal immigrants. 01:23:50.410 --> 01:23:55.010 It's also people who are born citizens but they don't think you had the right parents. 01:23:55.730 --> 01:23:58.090 Yeah you don't have the right parents that's right. 01:23:58.090 --> 01:24:05.370 And and so yeah this is okay uh at the at the rally one other thing trump made 01:24:05.370 --> 01:24:09.170 a comment about some sort of secret plan he had with speaker johnson. 01:24:09.170 --> 01:24:14.470 Oh here's one here's a good one i found hinge one other hinge clip go hey when 01:24:14.470 --> 01:24:18.970 it comes to israel and palace by the way i am quoting a joke i do not endorse 01:24:18.970 --> 01:24:20.210 this joke i want to be clear, 01:24:20.850 --> 01:24:26.850 I think it's I think it's disgusting when it comes to Israel and Palestine we're 01:24:26.850 --> 01:24:29.770 all thinking the same thing send all your stuff already best out of three rock 01:24:29.770 --> 01:24:33.350 paper scissors you know Palestinians will throw a rock every time and also we 01:24:33.350 --> 01:24:35.150 know Jews have a hard time throwing that paper, 01:24:36.700 --> 01:24:42.720 you know these are the kind of i saw one person and and these latinos they love 01:24:42.720 --> 01:24:47.220 this is they some other speaker and these latinos they love making babies too 01:24:47.220 --> 01:24:51.280 just know that they do they do there's no pulling out they don't do that they 01:24:51.280 --> 01:24:54.120 come inside just like they did to our country i. 01:24:54.120 --> 01:24:55.600 Think that was the same guy actually. 01:24:55.600 --> 01:24:59.960 I don't know if that's the same guys like i guess it kind of looks like the 01:24:59.960 --> 01:25:05.540 same guy well it's got an asshole face i saw one person say that she's some 01:25:05.540 --> 01:25:07.320 Some sick bastard that Hillary Clinton. 01:25:07.500 --> 01:25:10.480 What a sick son of a bitch. The whole fucking party. A bunch of degenerates, 01:25:10.560 --> 01:25:14.740 low-life Jew haters, and low-lifes. Every one of them. Every one of them. Let's see. 01:25:16.280 --> 01:25:22.860 Da-da-da. America. Steve Miller. America is for Americans, and Americans only. Steve Miller. 01:25:24.560 --> 01:25:31.880 Let's see. Grant Cardone. Grant Cardone calls Mark Cuban a simp and says Kamala has pimp handlers. 01:25:32.100 --> 01:25:35.260 He then says of Democrats, we need to slaughter those other people. 01:25:35.540 --> 01:25:40.340 Okay. We get, we get the point. I saw one person try to say, 01:25:40.520 --> 01:25:44.680 I don't know how serious they were, but basically that one comedian, 01:25:44.880 --> 01:25:47.220 like half of the things you read were from that one comedian. 01:25:48.460 --> 01:25:53.240 Like that he was actually, he, he must actually be a plant that is trying to 01:25:53.240 --> 01:25:55.040 make them look bad and hurt them. 01:25:55.260 --> 01:26:00.120 Uh, I don't think so. I think he met every single one of those things. 01:26:00.120 --> 01:26:02.920 You know it's a sam it's this whole thing where there 01:26:02.920 --> 01:26:05.800 is there is a very big divide amongst comedians right now 01:26:05.800 --> 01:26:08.540 related to this and you and i talked about this a 01:26:08.540 --> 01:26:12.960 while back where one of the things that what why we don't support this kind 01:26:12.960 --> 01:26:16.920 i don't support this kind of comp more i thought like maybe 30 years ago ha 01:26:16.920 --> 01:26:21.860 ha ha they were they were just trying to make jokes whatever is that we've i 01:26:21.860 --> 01:26:26.800 i have come and and you as well to the realization these guys yeah never they actually mean. 01:26:26.920 --> 01:26:31.080 They're using, oh, it's a joke as a cover to say what they actually believe. 01:26:31.220 --> 01:26:34.440 As a cover to say what they actually believe. Exactly. So no. 01:26:34.780 --> 01:26:37.460 No. These guys are not joking. And that's the problem. 01:26:38.360 --> 01:26:40.060 And there have been some, 01:26:40.630 --> 01:26:44.490 this has created a significant divide amongst the comedian community where some 01:26:44.490 --> 01:26:47.890 comedians will defend this guy but some others that have been around and said 01:26:47.890 --> 01:26:51.510 listen stop the bullshit these guys really mean it they're using comedy as a 01:26:51.510 --> 01:26:56.730 way to hide you know which is you realize you gotta you gotta stop giving them any slack yeah. 01:26:56.730 --> 01:27:02.630 I i mean vance said people need to get over it and not be so offended by every little thing. 01:27:02.630 --> 01:27:08.790 Oh yeah i mean and they got offended by by by a a made up By them taking comment 01:27:08.790 --> 01:27:15.070 that Biden did, okay, and framing it differently and saying that he called them garbage. 01:27:15.130 --> 01:27:18.670 And they're all like, oh, my God, look, I call me garbage. 01:27:18.970 --> 01:27:20.970 Oh, my God, Jesus Christ. 01:27:22.390 --> 01:27:27.430 These Democrats, they're getting me. I'm like, you know, they love to have it 01:27:27.430 --> 01:27:29.550 both ways every fucking time. I'm sick and tired of them. 01:27:29.550 --> 01:27:36.190 Yeah, just to be clear, this was Biden says what he said was that the only garbage 01:27:36.190 --> 01:27:41.310 he saw was Trump's supporters, supporter apostrophe S garbage, 01:27:41.650 --> 01:27:44.350 speaking about the comedian spewing garbage. 01:27:44.630 --> 01:27:44.810 Correct. 01:27:44.810 --> 01:27:50.290 But of course, this was taken as Trump supporters are garbage, 01:27:50.770 --> 01:27:57.510 which took over the media cycle right when all of the stuff about Madison Square Garden. 01:27:57.730 --> 01:28:01.730 Yeah, for a short amount of time. But like maybe that little reversal I saw 01:28:01.730 --> 01:28:04.630 wasn't like fake outliers. 01:28:04.910 --> 01:28:08.590 It's really like a reversal based on like people stopped talking about Madison 01:28:08.590 --> 01:28:10.270 Square Garden and started talking about this. 01:28:10.390 --> 01:28:13.810 I don't know. But like we'll see what the next few polls say. 01:28:13.810 --> 01:28:16.050 We've got time for a couple more polls before the election. 01:28:16.190 --> 01:28:22.230 But the bottom line, though, is I think anybody who is pushing that narrative 01:28:22.230 --> 01:28:23.550 was completely disingenuous. 01:28:24.270 --> 01:28:29.090 But at the same time, like for 24 hours, everybody was talking about this Joe 01:28:29.090 --> 01:28:32.930 Biden gaffe and how it changed everything and blah, blah, blah. 01:28:33.130 --> 01:28:37.550 And it pissed me off. The worst thing is that people that are Democrats were 01:28:37.550 --> 01:28:40.690 saying it was a gaffe instead of like, no, that's not what he said. 01:28:40.690 --> 01:28:41.970 I heard it specifically. 01:28:42.250 --> 01:28:46.830 It's not what he said. And you guys are saying that he's made a gaffe when he 01:28:46.830 --> 01:28:48.830 didn't. That's not what he said. Damn it. 01:28:49.090 --> 01:28:52.530 And so Harris had to distance herself from it and say, look, 01:28:52.610 --> 01:28:56.210 I would never say anything about that based on how people vote, blah, blah, blah. 01:28:56.450 --> 01:28:59.570 I will, though. Trump supporters are garbage. Sorry. 01:28:59.770 --> 01:29:03.290 I will, too. Some Trump supporters are garbage. Fuck. Fuck. OK. 01:29:03.450 --> 01:29:07.750 All right. But Biden didn't say that because he's a much classier guy than I am. 01:29:07.930 --> 01:29:10.750 Yeah. There you go. OK. All right. 01:29:10.810 --> 01:29:11.250 We got to go. 01:29:11.250 --> 01:29:17.650 I know the Trump Johnson secret. I think if basically this is being assumed 01:29:17.650 --> 01:29:22.390 to be as if the house goes Republican again, 01:29:22.770 --> 01:29:29.490 that Johnson will use his powers to try to gum up the works on this January 6th. 01:29:30.140 --> 01:29:33.500 In a way that did not succeed last time around, but they'll try again. 01:29:33.660 --> 01:29:34.760 That's how it's being interpreted. 01:29:35.860 --> 01:29:41.460 And I will say also on that there's massive setting the stage for that, 01:29:41.660 --> 01:29:46.940 because while on all of the sort of mainstream and liberal media, 01:29:47.100 --> 01:29:48.540 everybody is like, we have been today. 01:29:48.680 --> 01:29:51.280 It's too close to call. It's too close to call. It's too close to call. 01:29:51.380 --> 01:29:54.420 If you go on any conservative media whatsoever. 01:29:54.420 --> 01:29:56.280 They're saying that Trump is winning. 01:29:56.440 --> 01:30:00.120 That Trump is winning. He's got it in the bag. It's not even going to be close. 01:30:00.340 --> 01:30:06.240 Trump's ahead. And all of that is setting up the narrative that if Harris quote 01:30:06.240 --> 01:30:11.080 unquote wins, it's because she cheated and it's stolen and there's shenanigans 01:30:11.080 --> 01:30:14.880 and it's setting up to repeat what we'd had four years ago. 01:30:15.640 --> 01:30:20.100 Um, that's exactly right. Uh, Bruce asked if there was an October surprise this time around. 01:30:20.200 --> 01:30:23.440 If so, what I would say there've been attempts at an October surprise, 01:30:23.620 --> 01:30:25.340 but none that have really been there. 01:30:25.420 --> 01:30:28.200 If the Madison square Garden is the closest thing there 01:30:28.200 --> 01:30:31.640 is to an October surprise to Trump's October 01:30:31.640 --> 01:30:38.360 surprising himself but really self but yeah 01:30:38.360 --> 01:30:43.160 basically but but honestly I don't think there's been a successful October surprise 01:30:43.160 --> 01:30:48.740 there is no Comey letter this time around no um no uh we have the tide of Harrison 01:30:48.740 --> 01:30:53.500 endorsements after Madison Square Garden we talked about the vibes the European 01:30:53.500 --> 01:30:55.520 Green parties asked Jill Stein to drop out. 01:30:55.620 --> 01:30:58.060 Of course, she's not going to end. It's too late anyway, even if she did. 01:30:58.740 --> 01:31:00.340 And that's the end of our list. 01:31:00.640 --> 01:31:01.840 So that's the end of the list. 01:31:02.060 --> 01:31:08.020 So I will remind people again, we will be live streaming election night. 01:31:08.700 --> 01:31:14.720 So zero UTC as polls are closing, which is 8 p.m. 01:31:15.180 --> 01:31:19.500 Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific U.S. time. We will be live streaming. 01:31:19.680 --> 01:31:22.800 The place to go look for that is... 01:31:23.390 --> 01:31:28.350 Youtube.com slash at sign curmudgeons hyphen corner. 01:31:28.630 --> 01:31:34.390 Go there for our live stream. We will be on for hours while we watch the stuff come in. 01:31:34.550 --> 01:31:38.130 We'll probably include a shortened edited down version of that at the end of 01:31:38.130 --> 01:31:42.710 our next actual show, which we will record at the usual time later in the week. 01:31:43.290 --> 01:31:47.850 Otherwise, curmudgeons hyphen corner.com. You can find our transcripts, 01:31:47.970 --> 01:31:53.170 links to all the ways to contact us, a link to our Patreon where you can give us money. 01:31:53.390 --> 01:31:56.850 At various levels. We'll send you a postcard, a mug. 01:31:57.030 --> 01:32:00.390 We'll mention you on the show, all that kind of stuff at $2 a month or more. 01:32:00.530 --> 01:32:03.250 Or if you just ask, we will invite you to our Commissions Corner Slack where 01:32:03.250 --> 01:32:07.410 you can hang out with Yvonne and I and other listeners to share links and chat 01:32:07.410 --> 01:32:08.550 and all that kind of stuff. 01:32:08.870 --> 01:32:12.670 I'm assuming you don't have time for a highlight from the Slack, right, Yvonne? 01:32:14.270 --> 01:32:14.670 Gosh. 01:32:17.710 --> 01:32:19.250 No, no, no. 01:32:20.230 --> 01:32:27.590 No. And so that's it. Uh, next time we talk, well, if you listen to the live 01:32:27.590 --> 01:32:31.150 stream, you'll hear our reactions live for election night. 01:32:31.330 --> 01:32:35.410 Otherwise our next regular show will be after the election. 01:32:36.070 --> 01:32:41.910 In the meantime, check election graphs.com daily for my poll updates and check the blog section. 01:32:42.010 --> 01:32:46.190 I'll probably do two more blog posts before election night with updates. 01:32:46.390 --> 01:32:49.270 And that's it. Hey, good luck, everybody. 01:32:49.910 --> 01:32:54.130 If you haven't voted yet and you are going to vote for Harris, 01:32:54.390 --> 01:33:00.270 please go vote if you're going to vote for Donald Trump, go fuck yourself and leave yeah, 01:33:01.730 --> 01:33:10.250 sorry the same, yes okay, and that's it good luck, have a great week stay safe, 01:33:10.410 --> 01:33:15.530 vote blah blah blah, here comes the outro, are you ready to say goodbye Yvonne? 01:33:15.630 --> 01:33:16.350 Bye bye Okay. 01:33:16.530 --> 01:33:19.990 Goodbye, goodbye, goodbye. One more goodbye from Yorban. 01:33:20.290 --> 01:33:20.810 Bye. 01:33:51.050 --> 01:33:55.370 Okay, I'm off to put in all the polls that have come in while we were recording. 01:33:55.770 --> 01:33:59.310 There were like a half dozen. Okay, bye, Vaughn. 01:33:59.590 --> 01:33:59.870 Bye. 01:34:00.210 --> 01:34:01.510 Here comes the stop button. 01:34:01.710 --> 01:34:02.610 Okay, go, go, go.