WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:01.570 Greetings, Mr. Bow. 00:00:02.130 --> 00:00:02.890 Good morning! 00:00:03.750 --> 00:00:04.070 Yeah. 00:00:04.750 --> 00:00:08.290 Rise and shine! Your eyes look like it's 8am. 00:00:08.970 --> 00:00:16.770 Oh, I wonder why that might be. Yes, I've been... Hold on. Let's let the livestream start. 00:00:19.970 --> 00:00:22.510 Your cough is wonderful as usual. 00:00:23.210 --> 00:00:27.630 Yeah, yeah. I'm going to push this button here. Where is this? 00:00:30.010 --> 00:00:33.530 Not yet. Yeah, I've been awake for maybe 10, 15 minutes. 00:00:33.910 --> 00:00:40.550 And after probably only being asleep like four hours, maybe. I don't know. We'll see. 00:00:41.210 --> 00:00:46.770 Well, you're not doing too bad. Okay. And I have to, because Juana's working 00:00:46.770 --> 00:00:51.310 early voting, I have a hard stop in one hour and 30 minutes from now, exactly. 00:00:51.530 --> 00:00:51.730 Okay. 00:00:51.770 --> 00:00:53.610 Because I have to take Manu to music. 00:00:53.990 --> 00:00:58.790 Okay. So let's get this thing going. Here it comes. 00:01:00.010 --> 00:01:00.850 . 00:01:22.500 --> 00:01:27.680 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner. I'm messing up already. Seconds in. 00:01:27.780 --> 00:01:28.920 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner. 00:01:30.940 --> 00:01:39.800 Yeah, exactly. For Saturday, October 26th, 2024, it is just after 15 UTC as 00:01:39.800 --> 00:01:43.880 we're starting to record, which is early for me. 00:01:44.500 --> 00:01:47.440 I'm not, you know, but I'm here. 00:01:47.440 --> 00:01:52.320 It is quite early for Sam. Yeah. I did request that we do it at this hour. 00:01:52.500 --> 00:01:54.680 Thanks to exigent circumstances. 00:01:54.980 --> 00:02:00.300 But you know, you could have asked for one or two hours earlier than this. 00:02:00.700 --> 00:02:04.760 And I would have been, I would have done it. 00:02:04.940 --> 00:02:07.000 Awake. You still would have awake? 00:02:07.420 --> 00:02:11.540 Well, I mean, I wasn't awake for this. I'm not awake right now. 00:02:11.620 --> 00:02:14.120 I'm asleep. I'm asleep at this very moment. 00:02:14.520 --> 00:02:20.480 And yes. Anyway, we're going to do our normal. We'll do a butt first with random crap. 00:02:20.480 --> 00:02:25.040 And then what did you tell our audience last week? Unfortunately, 00:02:25.340 --> 00:02:27.540 folks, last week at the last minute. 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:34.580 All I said, let me finish with we'll do the other stuff and then we'll do newsy 00:02:34.580 --> 00:02:39.220 stuff, which I mean, given the date, given it is the end of October in an election 00:02:39.220 --> 00:02:41.300 year, you know what we're going to be talking about. 00:02:41.820 --> 00:02:42.680 But college football. 00:02:44.380 --> 00:02:44.900 Exactly. 00:02:45.660 --> 00:02:47.740 Yes. anyway so no. 00:02:47.740 --> 00:02:53.080 All i told you all i told people yvonne was that you you at the last minute 00:02:53.080 --> 00:02:55.860 were not feeling well and could not make it that's all. 00:02:55.860 --> 00:03:01.740 Well well that's that's that's an understatement at the last minute okay when 00:03:01.740 --> 00:03:06.640 i woke up i we i'd agreed with sam to record this on saturday and actually had 00:03:06.640 --> 00:03:12.160 been because i had not been feeling well all week i'd gone on a business trip and i I felt sick. 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:18.880 And I basically worked on Friday when I got back, but I was in bed. I was not well. 00:03:19.620 --> 00:03:24.360 And Saturday morning, I woke up and it felt instead of better, 00:03:24.600 --> 00:03:28.400 which I hope, hey, I'm getting some rest and drinking fluids. Fine. 00:03:28.860 --> 00:03:34.360 It felt way worse. And at that moment, I said, well, I'll go into the emergency room. 00:03:34.540 --> 00:03:40.360 This cannot be, this is not right. 00:03:40.640 --> 00:03:45.880 And at first I thought, ah, just give me some medicines and send me back home. 00:03:46.320 --> 00:03:49.680 Well, they did a CAT scan and they said, no, you're staying here. 00:03:51.110 --> 00:03:58.850 Because I got a bout of diverticulitis, which is an issue with the lower intestine 00:03:58.850 --> 00:04:00.470 in which it gets infected. 00:04:00.830 --> 00:04:03.790 You know, one thing is interesting that I kept reading about it, 00:04:03.850 --> 00:04:05.190 and nobody really understands why. 00:04:05.510 --> 00:04:12.090 It's more prevalent in Asian and European men, and the location is not exactly 00:04:12.090 --> 00:04:13.750 the same for Asian and European men. 00:04:14.750 --> 00:04:18.030 And it's very painful. and it 00:04:18.030 --> 00:04:20.810 can and and if if you don't really 00:04:20.810 --> 00:04:23.510 treat it and i i you know according to 00:04:23.510 --> 00:04:31.650 the doctor i did notice it i i didn't like you know i didn't wait i went quickly 00:04:31.650 --> 00:04:35.930 that they noticed that it was like at a very early stage because it in many 00:04:35.930 --> 00:04:40.850 cases it can require surgery okay it's not good in order to treat it, 00:04:40.950 --> 00:04:42.350 they have to remove part of the, 00:04:42.550 --> 00:04:46.790 it require removing part of your lower intestine. 00:04:47.150 --> 00:04:48.110 You don't want that. 00:04:48.670 --> 00:04:57.590 No, no. Yeah. So, you know, I actually, you know, my last couple of months, 00:04:57.590 --> 00:04:59.450 I've had some gastro issues. 00:04:59.710 --> 00:05:04.510 You guys remember a podcast I did late August. I was definitely sick recovering 00:05:04.510 --> 00:05:12.090 from specifically something about of this. And I have to think that that played 00:05:12.090 --> 00:05:14.110 a part into this at this point. 00:05:14.430 --> 00:05:17.750 I don't see how it didn't. I don't think it could be a coincidence. 00:05:17.750 --> 00:05:20.790 I haven't had a gastrointestinal virus like that in years. 00:05:20.930 --> 00:05:26.590 And then all of a sudden I get one that's like that bad. And then I wind up with an infection. 00:05:26.790 --> 00:05:29.390 But the good news is that I'm on the mend. 00:05:29.890 --> 00:05:36.510 I am not going to say that I am 100% because I am not. I can feel that I'm still a little bit. 00:05:38.730 --> 00:05:41.330 Lethargic I think that's the right word overall, 00:05:42.700 --> 00:05:48.020 So, and I have to take, I'm still in the middle of taking treatment because 00:05:48.020 --> 00:05:53.040 I, okay, they gave me IV antibiotics, but now I have to go in through a round 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:55.220 of like 10 days of antibiotics. 00:05:55.500 --> 00:06:01.180 And then, and I have to go back to my GI for a checkup. 00:06:01.320 --> 00:06:05.340 And the thing is that, you know, I had a colonoscopy like this year. 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:08.180 They didn't really see anything to be worried about. 00:06:10.320 --> 00:06:13.360 So and you know the doctor said that well hey sometimes 00:06:13.360 --> 00:06:16.360 this thing happens just like that 00:06:16.360 --> 00:06:19.620 it just happened in in a snap so but the 00:06:19.620 --> 00:06:25.620 good news is that i didn't have to get surgery the er here thank god i went 00:06:25.620 --> 00:06:31.340 to you know was very quick i didn't really they didn't really make me wait i 00:06:31.340 --> 00:06:36.480 was like there you know i got i got put into an attending room real quick i mean probably i was, 00:06:37.340 --> 00:06:40.300 i mean in a couple of hours they already had 00:06:40.300 --> 00:06:43.600 me in the you know you know it's like yeah they 00:06:43.600 --> 00:06:46.620 did the cat scan they did the ivs and they 00:06:46.620 --> 00:06:51.240 had put me in a room and the main reason to put me in a room was they just wanted 00:06:51.240 --> 00:06:55.620 to make sure that i was recovering that uh that uh medicine was taking effect 00:06:55.620 --> 00:07:00.900 and i will say that the iv antibiotics had took in less than six hours the pain 00:07:00.900 --> 00:07:04.100 had subsided like I would say 80 plus percent. 00:07:04.980 --> 00:07:08.040 So, so that was, so that was good. 00:07:08.280 --> 00:07:11.280 So how long were you there for total? 00:07:11.500 --> 00:07:15.900 Well, thankfully only, I only had to spend, like I got there a Saturday morning 00:07:15.900 --> 00:07:20.040 pretty early and they let me go Sunday afternoon. 00:07:20.180 --> 00:07:24.080 They wanted to see that I could have a meal because they saw that the antibiotics 00:07:24.080 --> 00:07:25.900 were having the effect that they desired. 00:07:26.240 --> 00:07:29.160 And they, they did a check and they said, you know in the morning and they said okay 00:07:29.160 --> 00:07:31.920 look let's get you real food now because i 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:35.120 had not eaten my god that week i i barely 00:07:35.120 --> 00:07:38.720 ate um and so 00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:42.100 i i was able to eat they they 00:07:42.100 --> 00:07:46.100 what they said is look we're going to give you another round of ivs and 00:07:46.100 --> 00:07:49.300 then we're going to give you this prescription for bills and 00:07:49.300 --> 00:07:52.240 then on your way home so so i am here now 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:55.100 so yes well i'm not you know usually at this hour 00:07:55.100 --> 00:07:58.340 on saturdays i go exercise but right now i'm like 00:07:58.340 --> 00:08:01.200 i said i'm not i can't do that right now 00:08:01.200 --> 00:08:09.500 i can't do that right now so i i i gotta i gotta get some rest and get a follow-up 00:08:09.500 --> 00:08:16.560 and hopefully then next week i can i'll try some lighter activity but not you 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:19.100 know not like a full workout. 00:08:19.560 --> 00:08:23.680 So, yeah. But anyway, I'm here. I'm alive. 00:08:24.380 --> 00:08:28.020 Glad you're feeling better. Glad whatever they're doing to you is working. 00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:29.000 Yeah. 00:08:29.440 --> 00:08:30.780 Glad you didn't need surgery. 00:08:31.300 --> 00:08:34.260 Oh, God. Yeah, that would have been really... 00:08:35.010 --> 00:08:39.030 That would have been, but anyway, I mean, I think that's good enough for a, 00:08:39.130 --> 00:08:40.550 but first Sam, you got a movie? 00:08:41.170 --> 00:08:45.570 No, I still haven't gone through and done the thing, but I do have an update 00:08:45.570 --> 00:08:47.830 for you. An important update. 00:08:48.350 --> 00:08:51.190 An important update. I like important updates. 00:08:51.470 --> 00:08:52.490 It is related. 00:08:52.910 --> 00:08:56.810 Just don't do it like my wife. My wife freaks me out by calling me and says. 00:08:57.090 --> 00:08:57.670 We need to talk. 00:08:58.090 --> 00:09:02.490 We need to talk. And I'm like, oh my God, what? But, you know, 00:09:02.690 --> 00:09:06.350 I think the ice cubes are, you know, they're kind of stuck. 00:09:06.650 --> 00:09:10.890 Like, that's what you need to talk about? Sound like somebody's dying. 00:09:11.230 --> 00:09:15.450 No, no, this is an update, but it is media related update. It is on this. 00:09:16.170 --> 00:09:17.090 On this? 00:09:19.230 --> 00:09:19.750 Oh. 00:09:19.970 --> 00:09:27.290 So I normally only talk about a TV show if I've finished it, the whole damn thing. 00:09:27.290 --> 00:09:32.230 But I did want to update you, since I know you have a specific interest in Law 00:09:32.230 --> 00:09:37.690 & Order, that Alex and I have finished Season 1. 00:09:38.450 --> 00:09:39.490 Oh my God. 00:09:40.330 --> 00:09:49.030 And looking at my notes here, we started Season 1 in, let me make sure I have 00:09:49.030 --> 00:09:52.950 this right, on July 9th, 2023. 00:09:53.670 --> 00:09:58.570 And we finished in the last couple weeks. I would have mentioned this last week. So that took, well. 00:09:58.690 --> 00:10:04.150 That, that, I mean, that, that, I mean, so, so, so, so watching it like a regular TV show. 00:10:04.150 --> 00:10:09.970 I have done the, I have done the math. It took us 15 months to finish season one of law and order. 00:10:10.870 --> 00:10:17.530 At that rate, if they made no additional new episodes, which, 00:10:17.670 --> 00:10:18.930 of course, they are making new episodes. 00:10:19.050 --> 00:10:23.750 But if they made no— The problem is that now they started making new episodes, 00:10:23.850 --> 00:10:28.070 so all of a sudden, you know, this has become—you know, you're like on a moving 00:10:28.070 --> 00:10:31.590 sidewalk all of a sudden. Right, but like— And you're going slower than the sidewalk. 00:10:31.590 --> 00:10:41.630 But if they made no new episodes, it would take us an additional 26 years to 00:10:41.630 --> 00:10:43.130 catch up to where they are now. 00:10:43.470 --> 00:10:50.390 Look, at this point, I see you in like some convalescent home and Alex coming to visit you. 00:10:50.490 --> 00:10:57.030 And you guys are on season, you know, like, I don't know, 18 still. 00:10:57.550 --> 00:11:00.890 Dad, dad, we still got, come on, come on. 00:11:00.890 --> 00:11:01.270 We 00:11:01.270 --> 00:11:03.910 Still got we still got we still gotta catch up. 00:11:03.910 --> 00:11:05.090 Come on let's. 00:11:05.090 --> 00:11:05.990 Go let's do this. 00:11:05.990 --> 00:11:12.190 Yeah yeah so that that's that that's my update like you know because i i don't 00:11:12.190 --> 00:11:16.550 think like you know my rule of like we'll talk about the show once i've finished 00:11:16.550 --> 00:11:22.370 it it'll be a while it'll be a while yet for it'll be a while it'll be quite. 00:11:22.370 --> 00:11:25.850 A while yes it's gonna you know um. 00:11:25.850 --> 00:11:29.090 I will say we have enjoyed season one Yeah. 00:11:29.450 --> 00:11:33.870 It's a good show. We're now actually a couple episodes into season two. But, yeah. 00:11:34.070 --> 00:11:40.990 So, I don't know. Out of some boredom the other day, I started, I'm going through. 00:11:41.050 --> 00:11:45.870 So, I actually have, I'm pretty sure I double checked, but it's correct. 00:11:46.170 --> 00:11:53.470 On my YouTube TV DVR, I am pretty confident I have every episode recorded right now. 00:11:53.670 --> 00:12:01.090 All of them. on the Cloud DVR. Because I have not seen one missing right now. I have all the seasons. 00:12:01.290 --> 00:12:05.250 So I started going back, and I did rewatch season... 00:12:06.250 --> 00:12:12.530 I've watched season one and that's the one that has, I think George the Zunza is a cop. 00:12:12.790 --> 00:12:13.570 Yes. Yes. 00:12:13.950 --> 00:12:18.450 Uh, so, so I, I've been like going through it, double checking like, 00:12:19.010 --> 00:12:20.990 Hey, which episodes haven't I watched? 00:12:21.570 --> 00:12:26.030 Just double checking. Okay. You know, so I've been like going through it. 00:12:26.030 --> 00:12:26.750 Just making sure. 00:12:26.890 --> 00:12:28.790 Which was, don't, don't I remember what happened? 00:12:28.910 --> 00:12:29.830 Did you get the pilot? 00:12:31.050 --> 00:12:32.670 Yes, I have watched the pilot. 00:12:32.850 --> 00:12:37.630 Okay. Okay. Cause, cause sometimes like it was originally aired in the first 00:12:37.630 --> 00:12:38.850 season, but out of order. 00:12:39.050 --> 00:12:42.910 Like they, you know, it was the, and so we watched it properly watching the 00:12:42.910 --> 00:12:48.090 pilot first, but you know, when it was originally aired, the pilot was, 00:12:48.350 --> 00:12:50.150 I don't know, episode four or five or something. 00:12:50.170 --> 00:12:53.830 It was just like stuck in, in the middle and it would have seemed out of place 00:12:53.830 --> 00:13:01.090 because it's a slightly different style than they actually settled on for the show proper. So anyway. 00:13:01.090 --> 00:13:03.890 So so yeah so so i'm i'm going 00:13:03.890 --> 00:13:13.690 back through it and uh i i think i'm on uh season six right now okay okay something 00:13:13.690 --> 00:13:22.770 around there so yeah so yeah so hi well here's the thing i don't know i especially you know i was like, 00:13:25.130 --> 00:13:26.570 I've been, like, a little bit bored. 00:13:26.870 --> 00:13:27.370 Mm-hmm. 00:13:29.630 --> 00:13:33.190 Let me take that back. I've been super busy with work things or whatever one now. 00:13:33.310 --> 00:13:37.190 But when I went to sit down and watch any television content, 00:13:37.390 --> 00:13:41.230 one of the things, there are a couple of shows that I do like and some that have new episodes. 00:13:41.410 --> 00:13:44.890 But it's not like, okay, okay, I watched third. Okay, they had the new shrinking 00:13:44.890 --> 00:13:47.670 on Apple TV+, which is a great show. 00:13:47.850 --> 00:13:50.210 I think you mentioned it before a while back. 00:13:50.250 --> 00:13:54.030 And so they have the new season now. And so, okay, great. But that's, 00:13:54.050 --> 00:13:57.030 okay, half hour. Okay, I'm done. Now what? 00:13:57.610 --> 00:14:00.510 Okay, so, all right. Well, let's just go back and fucking watch, 00:14:00.510 --> 00:14:08.070 you know, old Law and Order episodes. Because I went through all the Air Disasters shows. 00:14:08.230 --> 00:14:08.410 Right. 00:14:09.130 --> 00:14:14.570 This year. I went back and I watched through every, so I did that. So now I'm back. 00:14:14.570 --> 00:14:18.250 Are you at the point where you're like, God damn it, they need to crash some 00:14:18.250 --> 00:14:20.230 more fucking planes so they can make more episodes? 00:14:20.430 --> 00:14:25.050 Well, there's actually a whole bunch of, you see, the thing is that Air Disasters, 00:14:25.130 --> 00:14:31.810 doesn't, in many cases, involves planes that, you know, maybe had bad incidents, 00:14:32.090 --> 00:14:33.650 not necessarily crashes. 00:14:33.930 --> 00:14:35.730 So there's a whole bunch of those. 00:14:36.070 --> 00:14:39.630 But for some reason, they've been very slow in production recently. 00:14:39.870 --> 00:14:44.250 I don't know if the pandemic impacted that because I know a lot of shows were impacted by that. 00:14:44.450 --> 00:14:51.070 The last season of Law & Order, for example, wound up being very short because of the strike. 00:14:51.290 --> 00:14:51.550 Yep. 00:14:51.850 --> 00:14:58.230 Okay? So there's been the pandemic, strike all these things that have slowed 00:14:58.230 --> 00:15:01.270 down tv production so i don't know if that's this what's going on. 00:15:01.270 --> 00:15:03.470 Yeah i don't know so maybe. 00:15:03.470 --> 00:15:09.230 Who knows but but you know other than that i now yeah. 00:15:09.230 --> 00:15:10.710 So i don't. 00:15:10.710 --> 00:15:13.370 Have anything but but you're season one. 00:15:13.370 --> 00:15:19.530 Season one is complete and we've started season two so as you mentioned spoiler 00:15:19.530 --> 00:15:22.870 spoilers people the the one detective from season, 00:15:23.610 --> 00:15:29.250 one was killed in the first episode of season two they killed him off yeah and 00:15:29.250 --> 00:15:32.790 and so they switched so i'm still not used to the new guy they replaced him 00:15:32.790 --> 00:15:37.490 with but you know whatever and i and i haven't looked it up do you know like 00:15:37.490 --> 00:15:43.130 did did did the actor just not want to come back or did they fire him or did he die he. 00:15:43.130 --> 00:15:44.290 Didn't want to come back. 00:15:44.290 --> 00:15:49.530 Yeah he didn't want to come back okay yeah yeah so he was like uh this is not. 00:15:49.530 --> 00:15:53.550 What i really signed up for blah blah blah i didn't want to come back so that's 00:15:53.550 --> 00:15:56.650 the way hey you know what do we do with the doctor well we'll just fucking kill him. 00:15:57.140 --> 00:15:57.920 Right. OK. 00:15:58.520 --> 00:16:00.860 There was a movie. I still I always loved this. 00:16:01.000 --> 00:16:05.600 Was this nevertheless like the peak of his career and then he never did anything useful again? 00:16:05.720 --> 00:16:06.920 Basically, as far as I can tell. 00:16:07.100 --> 00:16:07.920 So it's a good choice. 00:16:08.200 --> 00:16:12.820 That was one of the worst career decisions I've seen, like for somebody. I'll tell you this. 00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:16.980 You know, there was a movie called Soap Dish that is hilarious. 00:16:17.180 --> 00:16:22.620 And I that that I don't know. I will say that probably some of the humor right now could not. 00:16:23.520 --> 00:16:26.300 In retrospect right now there are some 00:16:26.300 --> 00:16:32.560 choices of humor there that are poor choices but one funny thing is that at 00:16:32.560 --> 00:16:36.560 one point they decide to try to bring back a character and the character had 00:16:36.560 --> 00:16:42.140 been written off 30 years ago and one of the writers goes back and because it's 00:16:42.140 --> 00:16:46.020 a soap the writer goes to go, 00:16:46.160 --> 00:16:50.620 this is a writer that had not been at the show 30 years before because he's 00:16:50.620 --> 00:16:52.320 long running soap operas. 00:16:52.460 --> 00:16:56.980 They run for so long that the people like some of them that are still on the 00:16:56.980 --> 00:17:01.560 air now, I mean, they're not the same writers or people or shit that actors, 00:17:01.760 --> 00:17:04.240 none of the people are the same as there were 30 years before. 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:07.620 But they want to bring this back, the guy back that was written off 20. 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:09.500 You know, whatever, a long time ago. 00:17:09.660 --> 00:17:12.960 So the writer goes back to see how the hell did the guy get written off? 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:17.120 And the guy apparently was in a car accident where he got decapitated. 00:17:17.440 --> 00:17:20.420 And so the thing is that he's going to the but the 00:17:20.420 --> 00:17:23.620 producer is adamant about bringing this guy back 00:17:23.620 --> 00:17:26.720 to the show and i'm like how the hell do 00:17:26.720 --> 00:17:29.720 we bring this guy back the guy was 00:17:29.720 --> 00:17:32.620 literally in the show we said he was 00:17:32.620 --> 00:17:36.000 decapitated he doesn't have a head how do 00:17:36.000 --> 00:17:40.920 i write for a guy that doesn't have a head he said no we'll say that he went 00:17:40.920 --> 00:17:47.860 to some clinic in europe and he did they reattached his head and you know everything 00:17:47.860 --> 00:17:54.020 is fine and by the way the writer was Whoopi Goldberg earlier I'm like. 00:17:54.580 --> 00:17:58.660 What the fuck am I doing with this? Okay, fine. Whatever. We'll write him back 00:17:58.660 --> 00:18:00.260 in. He's back from Europe. 00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:01.600 There you go. 00:18:02.960 --> 00:18:05.060 Apparently, Europe, they can attach your head. 00:18:05.140 --> 00:18:06.380 He was misdiagnosed. 00:18:06.920 --> 00:18:13.880 Yes, it was misdiagnosed. So, yeah. You know, so this is anyway. 00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:19.020 All right. So, Yvonne has a hard stop today. So, we're going to go ahead and 00:18:19.020 --> 00:18:22.800 cut this short, even though I'm sure we can find more TV to talk about. 00:18:22.800 --> 00:18:30.420 And we will be back to talk about the election for however long it takes. 00:18:30.920 --> 00:18:34.840 I'll probably start with poll updates and then we'll move on to everything else. 00:18:35.280 --> 00:18:40.960 Okay, here we go. This is a wiki of the day break. This is for random wiki of the day. 00:18:41.680 --> 00:18:45.280 And I actually, like, I had selected this to be on the agenda, 00:18:45.280 --> 00:18:50.220 like, last week, and it would have been, no one cares. 00:18:51.020 --> 00:18:56.040 The point is, it is the current random wiki of the day as we are recording this, 00:18:56.120 --> 00:18:57.060 not one I picked earlier. 00:18:57.880 --> 00:18:59.620 Anyway, here we go. 00:19:00.720 --> 00:19:03.900 Do do do. Hello, this is Neural Kajal. 00:19:04.200 --> 00:19:07.700 I'm here to let you know about Sam the Kamajan's other podcasts, 00:19:07.920 --> 00:19:09.400 the Wiki of the Day podcasts. 00:19:09.720 --> 00:19:13.860 Wiki of the Day comes in three varieties, popular, random, and featured. 00:19:14.440 --> 00:19:19.100 Each highlights a new Wikipedia article each day, they just pick the articles differently. 00:19:19.380 --> 00:19:24.100 This week on Random Wiki of the Day, you would have heard this summary for Beta Sabab Rebellion. 00:19:24.480 --> 00:19:28.700 The Beta Sabab Rebellion, Turkish, Beta Sabab Esien, Kurdish, 00:19:28.700 --> 00:19:33.160 Sir Hildana Elka, was the first Kurdish rebellion in the modern Republic of Turkey. 00:19:33.400 --> 00:19:36.980 The revolt was led by Halid Bek Sibran of the Sibran tribe. 00:19:37.280 --> 00:19:40.900 Other prominent commanders were Isan Nuri and Yusuf Ziyabe. 00:19:41.520 --> 00:19:45.620 Its causes laid in opposition to the abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate by Adatürk 00:19:45.620 --> 00:19:50.180 on 3 March 1924, the repressive Turkish policies towards Kurdish identity, 00:19:50.400 --> 00:19:53.300 the prohibition of public use and teaching of the Kurdish languages, 00:19:53.520 --> 00:19:57.280 and the resettling of Kurdish landowners and tribal chiefs in the west of the country, 00:19:57.520 --> 00:20:00.920 numerous officers of the Turkish army deserted for the rebellion. 00:20:01.140 --> 00:20:06.320 The rebellion began in August 1924, when the garrison of Betasabaq revolted 00:20:06.320 --> 00:20:07.600 against the Turkish government. 00:20:08.220 --> 00:20:12.180 The rebellion proved unsuccessful and ended shortly after it began. 00:20:12.840 --> 00:20:18.460 Yusuf Ziyabi was arrested on 10 October 1924 and reportedly accused Khalid Bekzibran 00:20:18.460 --> 00:20:20.500 of having been also involved in the revolt. 00:20:20.880 --> 00:20:25.160 Khalid Bekzibran was captured in a suram in December 1924. 00:20:25.840 --> 00:20:30.080 Both were court-martialed in Beatleys. Although the rebellion was suppressed, 00:20:30.320 --> 00:20:36.440 another Kurdish uprising, the Sheikh said rebellion, would begin the next year. That's it. See? 00:20:37.240 --> 00:20:42.220 Fun, entertaining, and educational, right? Okay, now look for and subscribe 00:20:42.220 --> 00:20:46.000 to the Wiki of the Day family of podcasts on your podcast-playing software of 00:20:46.000 --> 00:20:49.520 choice, or just go to wikioftheday.com to check out our archives. 00:20:49.960 --> 00:20:53.200 Now back to Kamajan's Corner. Do do do. 00:20:53.900 --> 00:20:58.940 Okay, we're back. So now, first of all, I hope everybody out there listening 00:20:58.940 --> 00:21:02.740 can now fully understand whatever the hell it was they were talking about, 00:21:02.880 --> 00:21:04.620 because I admit I like tuned out. 00:21:05.310 --> 00:21:07.510 After a few seconds and was preparing. 00:21:07.510 --> 00:21:12.690 For next sentence so i i i was not paying attention well you know was this picked 00:21:12.690 --> 00:21:16.470 because of our recent discussion about bringing back the ottoman no no. 00:21:16.470 --> 00:21:18.690 No this was random wiki of the day. 00:21:18.690 --> 00:21:21.550 No that's well i i imagine so that was it's very 00:21:21.550 --> 00:21:24.590 interesting because our discussion that we had a couple a few weeks ago 00:21:24.590 --> 00:21:29.750 we were talking about not well wait maybe we should bring back the ottoman empire 00:21:29.750 --> 00:21:33.430 okay in order to solve the middle east problems of course which we were being 00:21:33.430 --> 00:21:37.990 facetious we had i really don't think that that would really be a solution but 00:21:37.990 --> 00:21:44.190 you know it's one of those things but yeah you know no so so. 00:21:44.190 --> 00:21:48.830 And this was the kurds and turkey and stuff like that and but it was it was 00:21:48.830 --> 00:21:50.770 post-ottoman though but it wasn't. 00:21:50.770 --> 00:21:53.810 No no it was post-ottoman yeah no i know because it was the it was the kurdish 00:21:53.810 --> 00:21:57.330 rebellion in turkey yeah no i i get that but but it talked a little bit how 00:21:57.330 --> 00:22:02.410 about it part of this originated with you know, with the fall of the Ottoman empire and stuff. 00:22:03.370 --> 00:22:04.810 No, the anyway. 00:22:05.330 --> 00:22:08.850 Yeah. Anyway. So let, let, let me start out this sucker. 00:22:09.010 --> 00:22:17.070 So first of all, I'll say on just over 24 hours ago, I posted the latest of 00:22:17.070 --> 00:22:18.690 my blog post updates on election graph. 00:22:18.790 --> 00:22:25.070 So if you go to election graphs.com and hit the blog section, you will see 12 days out. 00:22:25.230 --> 00:22:29.390 What about junk polls? And so let me summarize what was there. 00:22:29.490 --> 00:22:33.710 The situation has not changed in any substantial way since I made this post. 00:22:34.510 --> 00:22:41.890 As I speak, there's probably about six to eight new polls I haven't done the 00:22:41.890 --> 00:22:47.410 data entry for yet that happened since I did it yesterday before now. 00:22:47.410 --> 00:22:51.170 And yeah, I'll get them in after the show, but I scanned through the states 00:22:51.170 --> 00:22:53.390 that they are part of and nothing substantially. 00:22:53.650 --> 00:22:56.750 They're all states that don't matter, you know, which, you know, 00:22:56.890 --> 00:23:01.150 tangent, like the fact that there are states that don't matter in our presidential 00:23:01.150 --> 00:23:03.670 elections is actually a problem, but whatever. 00:23:03.670 --> 00:23:12.110 But anyway, the basic thing I did was the fundamental situation of the polls 00:23:12.110 --> 00:23:16.430 hasn't just not changed since I made this post like a day and a half ago, 00:23:16.430 --> 00:23:21.290 but really has been the same for a long time. 00:23:21.830 --> 00:23:28.070 Basically, for the last month or so, it's been best characterized as too close 00:23:28.070 --> 00:23:30.350 to call with a very slight Trump advantage. 00:23:30.350 --> 00:23:33.030 For the month and a half before that it was too 00:23:33.030 --> 00:23:36.690 close to call with a very slight harris advantage but either 00:23:36.690 --> 00:23:40.570 way it's too close to call you're just maybe the slight advantage to one or 00:23:40.570 --> 00:23:46.130 the other based on current polling but it fundamentally has not changed very 00:23:46.130 --> 00:23:52.870 much in like three months basically harris harris jumped into the race and instantly 00:23:52.870 --> 00:23:55.250 the dynamics changed from when biden was in. 00:23:55.470 --> 00:23:58.370 And then things settled down. 00:23:58.650 --> 00:24:02.190 Let's be clear. I think that it swung from... 00:24:03.270 --> 00:24:09.730 Trump with a slight lead to, depending on the averages and the estimates, 00:24:10.110 --> 00:24:13.370 you have Trump with a slight lead. 00:24:13.810 --> 00:24:17.510 Others have Harris with a slight lead. 00:24:17.670 --> 00:24:23.330 But the reality is that it was, I think, almost everybody had consistently Trump 00:24:23.330 --> 00:24:27.590 with a slight lead before Harris jumped. 00:24:27.670 --> 00:24:30.210 Well, with Biden, it was a little bit more than a slight lead. 00:24:30.370 --> 00:24:34.530 It was not a huge lead. But it was more than slight. 00:24:34.790 --> 00:24:38.370 It was more than slight. It was probably like a... 00:24:38.370 --> 00:24:43.590 I mean, basically, Harris moving in, Harris taking over from Biden, moved us from... 00:24:43.590 --> 00:24:44.250 Made it a toss-up. 00:24:44.750 --> 00:24:54.470 Yeah, moved it from Trump has a small but consistent lead to it's a tie race. 00:24:54.650 --> 00:25:00.270 And then, depending on exactly how you're looking at the swing states and exactly 00:25:00.270 --> 00:25:04.650 what the polling is the most recent week, and which pollsters you include and 00:25:04.650 --> 00:25:05.890 which pollsters you don't. 00:25:06.550 --> 00:25:10.690 You'll get, you know, whether you give Harris a slight advantage or Trump a 00:25:10.690 --> 00:25:11.790 slight advantage varies. 00:25:12.030 --> 00:25:20.570 I think most places have, you know, things have moved very, very slightly towards Trump. 00:25:21.330 --> 00:25:25.830 If you compare now to a month and a half ago, like in between it's noisy, 00:25:25.990 --> 00:25:28.730 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, but very slightly towards Trump. 00:25:28.950 --> 00:25:34.110 So like the way, the way I have it has moved from too close to call with a very 00:25:34.110 --> 00:25:38.530 slight Harris lead to too close to call with a very slight Trump lead. 00:25:38.790 --> 00:25:44.370 And that's all about a handful of states. And I'll get into that. 00:25:44.650 --> 00:25:47.110 Well, let me do that first, since we're there. 00:25:47.770 --> 00:25:54.570 If you just take the state averages, like my election graphs averages are based 00:25:54.570 --> 00:25:55.950 on last five poll averages. 00:25:55.990 --> 00:25:59.290 And so most of the swing states at 00:25:59.290 --> 00:26:02.930 this point, that means you're taking approximately the last week of polls. 00:26:03.470 --> 00:26:06.310 Now they're there you know and i i base it based 00:26:06.310 --> 00:26:09.170 on the mid date of the dates the polls were in 00:26:09.170 --> 00:26:12.210 the field not when the polls actually came out so a 00:26:12.210 --> 00:26:15.150 couple of annoying things happen sometimes like there was a there was 00:26:15.150 --> 00:26:18.350 a franklin and marshall poll that came out a big pollster 00:26:18.350 --> 00:26:21.170 well trusted in pennsylvania blah blah blah 00:26:21.170 --> 00:26:24.230 but they used like a two-week time period 00:26:24.230 --> 00:26:27.210 in how long they were in the field so the very 00:26:27.210 --> 00:26:29.890 moment it came out it was already too old to be 00:26:29.890 --> 00:26:32.850 in current included in my current averages you know 00:26:32.850 --> 00:26:35.670 because like there were other pollsters that were out in the 00:26:35.670 --> 00:26:39.010 field for only a few days and put their results out quickly whereas 00:26:39.010 --> 00:26:43.550 franklin and marshall you know had a longer period out there and is careful 00:26:43.550 --> 00:26:48.170 and like double checks their stuff and but the result of that is by the time 00:26:48.170 --> 00:26:54.910 their results were out they were old right but but anyway the bottom line let 00:26:54.910 --> 00:26:58.930 me read you the seven states and this is well Now, 00:26:59.170 --> 00:27:02.190 you know, let me, I was going to read it off the blog post, but let me read 00:27:02.190 --> 00:27:03.590 this one off the live post. 00:27:03.770 --> 00:27:08.870 And this, again, is including everything but like a handful of polls that came 00:27:08.870 --> 00:27:14.230 out in the last 12 hours or so that I have not entered. 00:27:14.370 --> 00:27:16.870 But none of those new polls were in swing states, I don't think. 00:27:16.950 --> 00:27:20.050 So here are the seven swing states right now, according to my averages. 00:27:21.630 --> 00:27:30.150 Michigan, Harris by 0.3%. Wisconsin rounds to Trump by 0.0. 00:27:30.510 --> 00:27:33.050 It's actually like Trump by 0.02 or something. 00:27:33.790 --> 00:27:38.390 You know, Georgia, Georgia, 00:27:39.530 --> 00:27:52.610 Georgia, Georgia by 0.6%, Nevada, Trump by 0.7%, Pennsylvania, Trump by 1.2%. 00:27:52.610 --> 00:28:03.130 Arizona, Trump by 1.2%. North Carolina, 1.3%. Now, the key to all of that is that... 00:28:07.010 --> 00:28:12.810 I mean, it's a toss-up. Nobody has a clear lead. I mean, all of those. 00:28:13.470 --> 00:28:17.010 The New York Times did this thing where they had this chart that I shared. 00:28:18.170 --> 00:28:20.730 Yeah, they've had this chart out for the last few months. It's a good chart. 00:28:20.770 --> 00:28:25.790 Well, last few months, it's a good chart that goes and shows each state that's 00:28:25.790 --> 00:28:30.330 close and what the biggest recent polling miss was, for example. 00:28:30.530 --> 00:28:35.570 And it shows the range of what it is. So, so you go say Michigan, for example. Okay. 00:28:35.970 --> 00:28:40.370 It shows, it shows that the polling miss, the biggest one was in 2022. 00:28:40.990 --> 00:28:44.390 It was a six point polling miss. Okay. 00:28:44.750 --> 00:28:48.010 And so, and this was recent. 00:28:48.290 --> 00:28:52.290 Okay. So it's not like, you know, this is not, you know, not from like 10 years 00:28:52.290 --> 00:28:55.190 ago or something, but they missed by six points. 00:28:55.410 --> 00:28:59.870 Okay. So right now, when you're looking at that number and how tight it is, 00:29:00.010 --> 00:29:03.570 it's basically flip a coin in the fucking air because it's too much. 00:29:03.890 --> 00:29:07.130 Wisconsin 2020, a nine point miss. 00:29:07.810 --> 00:29:13.770 Again, not, you know, not Asian history. This is the last election cycles. Okay. 00:29:14.430 --> 00:29:18.190 Nevada, this one is an old miss. It was four points as a 2012. 00:29:18.490 --> 00:29:21.010 So that, so they're not showing that that would, but for example, 00:29:21.390 --> 00:29:26.250 Pennsylvania, again, 2022, a five point miss again. 00:29:26.490 --> 00:29:32.830 So all of these are so important and And Arizona had a three-point miss in 2022. 00:29:33.670 --> 00:29:41.810 And if you remember, Arizona, 2020, Trump was supposedly, that was like people 00:29:41.810 --> 00:29:46.910 had been picking Trump to win and Biden won Arizona. 00:29:47.170 --> 00:29:53.110 Which is what enraged Trump when it was called that Biden won Arizona early 00:29:53.110 --> 00:29:59.310 on Fox because that had been, you know, they had thought that they had Arizona in the bag. 00:29:59.310 --> 00:30:04.810 So we add up all those fucking states and how close they are on those averages. 00:30:04.890 --> 00:30:08.910 What the fuck recently happened? Basically, it's like. 00:30:09.610 --> 00:30:13.010 Yes. And look, here's the thing. 00:30:13.170 --> 00:30:22.490 With that range, if you take, well, throw Iowa and Maine CD2 into the mix too. 00:30:22.810 --> 00:30:26.710 The range at the moment, if you take all of those states and say they could 00:30:26.710 --> 00:30:31.250 go either way, because right now I have Iowa at Trump up 4.4%, 00:30:31.250 --> 00:30:33.450 that still has been lightly polled. 00:30:33.450 --> 00:30:38.010 There have only been two polls this cycle, but they showed it closer than you 00:30:38.010 --> 00:30:39.450 would have thought. So I'm keeping it in there. 00:30:39.570 --> 00:30:42.050 And then main CD2, Trump by 4.4. 00:30:42.190 --> 00:30:46.070 If you take all of those and say they could go either way, then you go from 00:30:46.070 --> 00:30:51.830 Trump winning by 86 all the way to Harris winning by 114, being well within 00:30:51.830 --> 00:30:54.130 the range of, okay, that could happen. 00:30:54.650 --> 00:30:56.890 Those could happen. Those could happen. 00:30:59.230 --> 00:31:03.070 Anywhere within that range, you should not be surprised. No. 00:31:03.070 --> 00:31:09.710 You know, it's like, OK, so like and so I hate this election. 00:31:09.850 --> 00:31:15.370 Sam. I fucking hate this election. I have never hated an election with such passion. 00:31:15.550 --> 00:31:21.390 This is this has been a crescendo of 2016, 2020. 00:31:21.570 --> 00:31:27.510 And now we get this whole fucking thing again with with even more razor thin 00:31:27.510 --> 00:31:29.370 numbers and shit and whatever. 00:31:29.610 --> 00:31:32.330 I hate it, Sam. I fucking hate it. 00:31:33.070 --> 00:31:38.230 Right. And one thing, since you said razor-thin numbers, I want to point out 00:31:38.230 --> 00:31:45.530 again, razor-thin numbers in these polling does not necessarily mean the actual 00:31:45.530 --> 00:31:46.850 result will be razor-thin. 00:31:47.610 --> 00:31:54.730 It might well be that this whole election hinges on multiple states that are 00:31:54.730 --> 00:31:57.750 within the realm of recounts and it gets really fucking messy. 00:31:57.930 --> 00:32:01.370 But it could easily be the ranges of that extreme. 00:32:01.790 --> 00:32:03.430 It could be a blowout for all we fucking know. 00:32:03.570 --> 00:32:05.570 It could be a blowout by either side. 00:32:06.220 --> 00:32:13.820 Like, that is very possible. Like, there's so many states that are like within, 00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:21.100 because again, it's not that, oh my God, this state really is 0.03% or whatever the hell it is. 00:32:21.380 --> 00:32:27.040 It's, that's the polling average, but it could be anywhere from one side winning 00:32:27.040 --> 00:32:30.120 by 5% to the other side winning by 5%. Right. 00:32:30.580 --> 00:32:34.760 You know, we just don't know. Polling's not good enough to tell us the difference 00:32:34.760 --> 00:32:40.660 there. So anyway, the bottom line is the overall, there has not been a huge 00:32:40.660 --> 00:32:44.640 movement in that situation in a few months. 00:32:44.840 --> 00:32:49.420 So one thing I did look at, though, because like lots of people, 00:32:49.980 --> 00:32:54.960 lots of people were talking about how, oh my God, the conservative pollsters 00:32:54.960 --> 00:33:02.860 are flooding the zone with crap polls to make it look like Trump is doing better than he really is. 00:33:02.860 --> 00:33:05.920 So I did some looking at that. 00:33:06.040 --> 00:33:12.520 And so I'll go through what I found using using my averages, but also like, yeah. 00:33:12.760 --> 00:33:16.540 And look, there's some people who do it by specifically saying, 00:33:16.760 --> 00:33:25.900 OK, this pollster is a known conservative that has been known to put their thumb on the on the scales. 00:33:26.640 --> 00:33:32.340 And, you know, like Rasmussen or Trafalgar or like a half dozen others. 00:33:33.040 --> 00:33:37.180 I'm like, you know, I'm not comfortable sort of making a case-by-case decision 00:33:37.180 --> 00:33:42.820 of like, okay, these guys are obviously trying to manipulate things. Let's throw that out. 00:33:43.300 --> 00:33:43.400 Sure, sure. 00:33:43.520 --> 00:33:48.940 But, you know, Handy Dandy 538 runs a set of pollster ratings. 00:33:49.700 --> 00:33:55.260 Their ratings are not based on sort of, are they partisan or not? 00:33:56.080 --> 00:33:57.040 They're based on accuracy. 00:33:57.280 --> 00:34:03.360 Their quotation is the historical track record and the methodological transparency. 00:34:03.700 --> 00:34:04.100 Okay. 00:34:04.540 --> 00:34:05.900 So basically like it's, 00:34:06.300 --> 00:34:12.520 It's not just how accurate they've been, but also how open are they about how 00:34:12.520 --> 00:34:14.280 do they get the results they do? 00:34:14.640 --> 00:34:19.580 Sure, sure. So even if someone had gotten the exact election results every single 00:34:19.580 --> 00:34:23.560 time, if they're a black box and don't tell you anything, they would lower their rating. 00:34:24.040 --> 00:34:28.880 Okay, so using these ratings, I figured I could filter out my averages. 00:34:28.880 --> 00:34:32.560 Like use my same technique for figuring out the averages, you know, 00:34:32.640 --> 00:34:37.420 last five polls, blah, blah, blah, wait, wait it when they produce multiple 00:34:37.420 --> 00:34:41.140 results, all that kind of crap, but filter it based on those ratings. 00:34:41.600 --> 00:34:44.520 So the first thing I did, and this was like a week and a half ago, 00:34:44.680 --> 00:34:49.640 when somebody asked a question on Max, Max, on Mastodon, um. 00:34:50.180 --> 00:34:51.560 Max, I want that name though. 00:34:51.760 --> 00:34:57.120 Max, Max, yeah, there you go. That we should, we should build something. 00:34:57.400 --> 00:34:59.280 We should build something with that. But yeah, I like it. 00:35:00.160 --> 00:35:06.120 Anyway, I used Pennsylvania as an example and used different cutoffs. 00:35:06.300 --> 00:35:09.800 Like 538 scale is on a zero to three scale, basically. 00:35:10.500 --> 00:35:15.040 Whereas three is the best and zero is your utter crap. 00:35:15.620 --> 00:35:19.680 And they actually have like, there are also pollsters that don't get a rating 00:35:19.680 --> 00:35:21.960 at all. And there can be two reasons for that. 00:35:22.120 --> 00:35:26.220 One is they've been expelled from the 538 averages because they just suck so badly. 00:35:26.760 --> 00:35:31.680 And the other reason something could have no ratings is no track record like it's a new yeah. 00:35:31.680 --> 00:35:32.960 It's a brand new pull yeah yeah. 00:35:32.960 --> 00:35:36.300 Right okay so with that using pennsylvania 00:35:36.300 --> 00:35:42.400 as an example at that time pennsylvania with my average that i i just philosophically 00:35:42.400 --> 00:35:45.760 include fucking everything i don't care i include everything let the averages 00:35:45.760 --> 00:35:54.700 watch it out i had harris up by 0.1 percent If I restricted that to only pollsters rated 1.5 and above, 00:35:54.920 --> 00:35:57.080 it moved to Harris up by 0.4%. 00:35:57.950 --> 00:36:04.950 If I further restricted it to only pollsters 2.0 and above, it went up to Harris up by 0.8%. 00:36:05.790 --> 00:36:13.370 And if I restricted it to the very highest tier, pollsters only 2.5 and above, Harris up by 1.5%. 00:36:13.370 --> 00:36:15.170 Still within the margin of error. 00:36:15.750 --> 00:36:19.230 Right. Well, the thing is, with the averages, there isn't really a margin of error anymore. 00:36:19.490 --> 00:36:24.590 The margin of error applies to a single poll. But yes, let me say it is within 00:36:24.590 --> 00:36:27.610 the realm of the variation of averages like this. 00:36:27.610 --> 00:36:28.190 Exactly. 00:36:28.590 --> 00:36:33.910 Like averages like this differ by more than one and a half percent day over 00:36:33.910 --> 00:36:36.250 day as polls come in and out of the average. 00:36:36.410 --> 00:36:39.910 As a new poll comes in, there's an outlier that does this, whatever. 00:36:41.350 --> 00:36:45.650 Polls move by a couple percent up and down. They vary within a range. 00:36:46.610 --> 00:36:49.470 I guess a margin of error isn't the right term for that. 00:36:49.650 --> 00:36:54.790 It's really within the range of what, you know, when I was talking earlier about 00:36:54.790 --> 00:36:59.770 the range of polling errors that you've had before with the average is all combined. 00:36:59.950 --> 00:37:02.710 It is within that range of that historic. 00:37:02.710 --> 00:37:08.310 And here's the thing. And I did something better than just looking at one state 00:37:08.310 --> 00:37:10.550 like this. In a second, I'll talk about that. 00:37:10.770 --> 00:37:17.370 But just using that as an example, that is saying that using high quality pollsters 00:37:17.370 --> 00:37:23.450 only made Harris look 1.4% better. 00:37:23.970 --> 00:37:25.530 And as you were mentioning. 00:37:25.750 --> 00:37:28.290 Like- That's a big boom in terms of averages. 00:37:28.290 --> 00:37:31.830 Well, what I was going to say is, as you were saying, 1.4 is small, 00:37:31.970 --> 00:37:33.690 it's within the margin of error, blah, blah, blah. 00:37:34.090 --> 00:37:40.650 But when you have seven fucking states that are less than 2%, 1.4 is huge. 00:37:40.650 --> 00:37:45.470 And so the example at the time that I did that initial analysis, 00:37:45.470 --> 00:37:55.870 it moves like moves the election from Trump winning by 56 electoral votes to Harris winning by 100. 00:37:56.450 --> 00:38:02.650 If you if you move, if you just moved everything by 1.4 percent towards Harris. 00:38:02.990 --> 00:38:07.650 OK, you know, now what I did, though, like that was just one state that was 00:38:07.650 --> 00:38:08.650 like a week and a half ago. 00:38:08.650 --> 00:38:15.030 I redid the analysis, but I did that same exercise for all seven swing states 00:38:15.030 --> 00:38:21.190 because, frankly, the other states, unless we are in one of those blowout situations, 00:38:21.190 --> 00:38:23.190 the other states are not going to matter. 00:38:24.620 --> 00:38:28.760 And so here's what we got from there. 00:38:28.940 --> 00:38:32.520 Like the range, it differed by state. 00:38:32.680 --> 00:38:36.840 And I'm sure this would, if I repeated the analysis like several times, 00:38:37.020 --> 00:38:39.580 I'd get different, like over the course of a week or something, 00:38:39.620 --> 00:38:42.880 I'd get different results because it depends on which pollsters were in the 00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:47.140 field at the moment, blah, blah, blah, which ones I had included in my average, which ones I hadn't. 00:38:47.140 --> 00:38:54.260 But it ranged from helping Harris by 1.6% to helping Trump by 1.4 at 1.5%. 00:38:54.260 --> 00:39:03.640 So like if you averaged out those seven states on average, they helped Harris, but only by 0.2%. Okay. 00:39:04.260 --> 00:39:10.920 But, you know, if you look at, if you look instead at how it would change the 00:39:10.920 --> 00:39:15.620 tipping point, it ends up moving the tipping point by 0.7%. 00:39:15.620 --> 00:39:21.560 And in the case of when I did this blog post, that moved the tipping point from 00:39:21.560 --> 00:39:25.160 Trump by 0.6% to Harris by 0.01%. 00:39:25.160 --> 00:39:32.480 So it moves it from a small Trump advantage to a very small Harris advantage. 00:39:32.640 --> 00:39:35.700 But either way, we are not comfortable. 00:39:36.220 --> 00:39:38.200 Exactly. It's not comfortable for anybody. 00:39:38.440 --> 00:39:42.640 And we're still in the too close to call situation, no matter what you do with 00:39:42.640 --> 00:39:49.420 these. So like the people who are saying that the junk polls are making it look a little bit better. 00:39:49.620 --> 00:39:53.720 Well, a lot of people are saying ignore the polls of junk, ignore the averages. 00:39:54.000 --> 00:40:00.640 The, the junk conservative polls are making it look much better for Trump than it would otherwise. 00:40:00.900 --> 00:40:06.400 From what I can tell, the junk polls are making it look slightly, 00:40:07.060 --> 00:40:12.160 slightly better for Trump than if you left them out. But either way. 00:40:12.840 --> 00:40:19.120 It's not overwhelming. It's a relatively small change, but it's a small change 00:40:19.120 --> 00:40:21.240 within the realm of too close to call. 00:40:21.500 --> 00:40:25.020 So it's all too close to call no matter what. 00:40:25.200 --> 00:40:31.120 It may shift you from saying too close to call with one side having a slight 00:40:31.120 --> 00:40:34.860 edge to too close to call with the other side having a slight edge. 00:40:34.980 --> 00:40:37.700 But either way, it's too close to call. 00:40:38.120 --> 00:40:43.160 My numbers actually, and going back to at the moment rather than at the blog 00:40:43.160 --> 00:40:49.760 post I had, I have my two models that allow for time left. 00:40:50.200 --> 00:40:56.420 And the more pessimistic of them for Harris gives Harris a 17.8% chance of winning. 00:40:56.660 --> 00:41:02.000 The more optimistic one gives her a 28.5% chance of winning. 00:41:02.280 --> 00:41:05.880 I'm a little bit more pessimistic than And if you look at FiveThirtyEight, 00:41:06.000 --> 00:41:13.040 The Economist, The Hill, which is DDHQ, all of those are much, much closer to 50-50. 00:41:13.240 --> 00:41:15.700 And the reason is very specific. 00:41:16.140 --> 00:41:18.980 Like they all make a going in assumption. 00:41:19.690 --> 00:41:24.850 That the direction of the polling error could be either way. 00:41:25.010 --> 00:41:30.230 Like, and they're not even going to make any assumptions about like equal chances 00:41:30.230 --> 00:41:34.010 of the polling error going towards Harris or the polling error going towards Trump. 00:41:34.430 --> 00:41:40.150 Mine looks at the last four elections and says over the course of the last four 00:41:40.150 --> 00:41:45.210 elections, on average, the polls have underestimated the Republicans. 00:41:45.210 --> 00:41:52.870 So it sort of says the lower chance for the Democrat is based on saying, 00:41:53.070 --> 00:41:57.330 okay, you need the polls to be underestimating the Democrat. 00:41:57.630 --> 00:42:02.710 And that has happened less often than underestimating the Republican over the 00:42:02.710 --> 00:42:04.110 last four elections. That's why. 00:42:04.290 --> 00:42:08.390 Now, having said that, there are a couple things to note. 00:42:09.590 --> 00:42:13.770 One is that, what was I going to say? 00:42:13.910 --> 00:42:24.490 Oh, first of all, even if you, let's say you assume, oh, I'm confusing myself. 00:42:24.670 --> 00:42:28.730 I did want to make one point. If you compare, like I've got this other thing 00:42:28.730 --> 00:42:34.170 that if the election was now, okay, if you go back two or three months, 00:42:34.370 --> 00:42:38.110 these were very different from each other because they allowed for, 00:42:38.590 --> 00:42:41.530 okay, the polling averages can change in the time remaining. 00:42:41.830 --> 00:42:46.450 The events can happen that change people's opinion. 00:42:46.730 --> 00:42:51.170 At this point, those two are very close to each other. 00:42:51.310 --> 00:42:55.870 Like they only differ by like a handful of percent in the odds. 00:42:56.410 --> 00:43:04.110 And that's basically indicating we got like only 10 days left. Okay. 00:43:04.910 --> 00:43:06.290 But here's one thing. 00:43:06.350 --> 00:43:06.470 Sam. 00:43:06.590 --> 00:43:12.050 Wait, wait, wait. Let me finish my presentation. Let me finish my presentation, and then you can talk. 00:43:12.410 --> 00:43:17.430 No, so what's left, all of these odds at this point are basically –, 00:43:18.090 --> 00:43:23.150 no longer saying things will change. Is there some chance things will change 00:43:23.150 --> 00:43:24.490 in the last week and a half? Sure. 00:43:24.650 --> 00:43:29.190 But for the most part, the odds are now entirely based on what you think might 00:43:29.190 --> 00:43:30.490 happen to the polling errors. 00:43:30.750 --> 00:43:34.790 And so that's why mine is more biased because in the past few elections, 00:43:35.350 --> 00:43:39.610 again, the Republicans have been underestimated more often than the Democrats, 00:43:39.710 --> 00:43:40.690 and my odds reflect that. 00:43:41.130 --> 00:43:47.010 Now, getting beyond that, like moving beyond the polls in time to sort of shift to other things. 00:43:47.350 --> 00:43:54.210 Here's why I think my own numbers are probably more pessimistic for Harris than 00:43:54.210 --> 00:43:57.850 we could say, than like my gut. 00:43:57.970 --> 00:44:02.530 And I've said before, if you waterboarded me, my gut says the polls are underestimating Harris. 00:44:02.830 --> 00:44:08.070 Okay. I'm going to, we'll hold off on waterboarding you for now. 00:44:08.450 --> 00:44:12.530 For now. Like, and here's, here's the thing. 00:44:12.710 --> 00:44:19.530 Like I, I have a gut And Nate Silver put out a post as well, like this week, 00:44:20.490 --> 00:44:24.690 saying basically, he said, my gut is Trump is slightly favored here, 00:44:24.710 --> 00:44:27.750 but don't trust my gut because nobody fucking knows anything. 00:44:28.070 --> 00:44:31.950 You know, and so, yeah. 00:44:32.890 --> 00:44:39.090 Look, I mentioned last week when Yvonne wasn't here, the enthusiasm gap. That's one thing. 00:44:40.510 --> 00:44:43.950 And I still see that, even though, and I'm sure we'll get into this more, 00:44:44.090 --> 00:44:45.930 the Democrats are wetting their pants right now. 00:44:46.070 --> 00:44:51.050 I'm a little bit nervous myself, but there's still an enthusiasm gap. 00:44:51.210 --> 00:44:57.650 You're seeing the Trump folks just don't seem to have the same level of excitement 00:44:57.650 --> 00:44:59.570 as they did the last couple of times around. 00:44:59.690 --> 00:45:04.690 And that's one big thing. But another that I'll put out there that, 00:45:04.690 --> 00:45:10.010 you know, Yvonne had put on our list of potential topics a while back, 00:45:10.190 --> 00:45:12.050 something we haven't talked about yet, 00:45:12.350 --> 00:45:16.270 which is underestimating female anger. 00:45:17.830 --> 00:45:21.150 And i think this is something where 00:45:21.150 --> 00:45:24.290 like all polling models and i'm 00:45:24.290 --> 00:45:27.510 not not talking about the kind of aggregating models 00:45:27.510 --> 00:45:32.370 that i do to come up with my odds and that 538 and all those are to do i'm talking 00:45:32.370 --> 00:45:38.670 about when you are conducting a poll you have to have a model of turnout that 00:45:38.670 --> 00:45:45.150 transforms your raw polls into what you are actually describing. 00:45:45.310 --> 00:45:50.290 Because like nobody, absolutely no pollsters at this point, call people until 00:45:50.290 --> 00:45:53.990 they get a thousand people to respond and then just divide. 00:45:54.410 --> 00:45:58.170 Okay. Because the problem is if you do that, either, 00:45:58.370 --> 00:46:03.630 you know, either the old fashioned by phone stuff or text or web or whatever, 00:46:03.630 --> 00:46:09.630 You end up with a group that is not representative of the overall population 00:46:09.630 --> 00:46:14.630 because you're looking at the subset of people who are likely to be engaged with polls. 00:46:15.070 --> 00:46:19.710 You know, and that's that's automatically like you're going to get a different 00:46:19.710 --> 00:46:24.510 like breakdown than you would expect in the overall voting population. 00:46:24.510 --> 00:46:31.510 So every single pollster has some form of, they ask those people demographic 00:46:31.510 --> 00:46:39.110 information about themselves, race, gender, education, a bunch of other factors. 00:46:39.390 --> 00:46:46.330 And then they reweight their results to try to match what they expect the turnout to look like. 00:46:46.550 --> 00:46:50.090 But they're guessing at the turnout model. 00:46:50.350 --> 00:46:52.750 And they base some of that on like, 00:46:52.810 --> 00:46:59.750 what if it looks like last time? And I think if you've got an issue, 00:46:59.970 --> 00:47:04.610 I heard one person talking the other day, and I'm not going to be able to give 00:47:04.610 --> 00:47:12.890 a sight, but talking about why exactly did pollsters underestimate Republicans in 2016 and 2020. 00:47:13.810 --> 00:47:22.370 And in 2016, it was basically that Trump's campaign spoke to a group of voters 00:47:22.370 --> 00:47:25.750 who traditionally didn't vote. 00:47:25.950 --> 00:47:33.970 Like there were a whole bunch of disaffected, less educated white folks who 00:47:33.970 --> 00:47:39.190 turned out in 2016 that had not historically turned out in other elections. 00:47:39.410 --> 00:47:44.030 And so all of the pollsters were wrong in their demographic models of who would 00:47:44.030 --> 00:47:47.430 turn out in 2016 because they underestimated that group. 00:47:47.590 --> 00:47:50.710 It 2020 was slightly different. 00:47:51.070 --> 00:47:56.970 It was the Trump campaign specifically was going after a base strategy where 00:47:56.970 --> 00:48:03.010 they were trying to get out the vote in very red counties and get more people, 00:48:03.190 --> 00:48:08.490 more of their sort of base to just come out and vote in, in places that typically 00:48:08.490 --> 00:48:13.290 were not competitive areas, but they just wanted to get the very red places 00:48:13.290 --> 00:48:16.250 to come out and vote and do their thing. 00:48:16.930 --> 00:48:19.670 And so that's why they underestimated those folks. 00:48:20.890 --> 00:48:25.430 My gut, and again, this is my gut, I would never put this directly on election 00:48:25.430 --> 00:48:27.830 graphs, but I'll mention it on the curmudgeon's corner, 00:48:28.070 --> 00:48:36.530 is that this time, the models that pollsters are using are underrepresenting women. 00:48:37.030 --> 00:48:42.470 I think you're going to get a big turnout boost in women and some of the early vote numbers. 00:48:42.650 --> 00:48:46.010 Like, early vote is really, really fucking hard to interpret. 00:48:47.130 --> 00:48:49.990 Because like, you know, so for instance, there are lots of, 00:48:50.080 --> 00:48:53.800 early vote numbers that are coming out in terms of how many Republicans have 00:48:53.800 --> 00:48:57.620 returned their ballots versus Democrats in states where there is a partisan registration. 00:48:58.860 --> 00:49:03.080 But the thing is with that, you're sort of gambling of, okay, 00:49:03.260 --> 00:49:07.980 but what's the messaging this year in terms of how people are going to vote? 00:49:08.120 --> 00:49:14.400 Because on the one hand, it looks like last time around in 2020, 00:49:14.680 --> 00:49:20.340 Democrats were heavily skewed towards early vote and mail-in and all the Republicans 00:49:20.340 --> 00:49:23.940 were doing day of because Donald Trump was going out there saying, 00:49:23.940 --> 00:49:27.940 don't trust anything but day of, go day of. 00:49:28.020 --> 00:49:30.320 And so that was massively skewed. 00:49:30.620 --> 00:49:35.600 And so when you see numbers that say, you know, hey, Democrats are returning 00:49:35.600 --> 00:49:39.940 a lot of return of early vote, you're like, oh, well, that's good for Democrats, right? 00:49:40.080 --> 00:49:45.160 But it's unclear because this time there are a lot of reports that Democrats 00:49:45.160 --> 00:49:51.300 are deciding that they want to vote in person and they don't want to do the early vote as much. 00:49:51.420 --> 00:49:56.540 Whereas this time around, the Republicans are doing all kinds of pushes nationwide 00:49:56.540 --> 00:49:59.580 to get their folks to early vote. So that's more muddled. 00:49:59.920 --> 00:50:06.140 However, there also are some early vote stats on male versus female, 00:50:06.140 --> 00:50:16.580 And it looks like women are participating in early vote at like 55 to 45 at the moment. 00:50:16.880 --> 00:50:22.280 And unlike the Republican versus Democrat, where like the partisan messaging 00:50:22.280 --> 00:50:23.920 of like, should you early vote? 00:50:24.080 --> 00:50:27.680 Should you vote day of whatever muddles things up? 00:50:27.800 --> 00:50:31.760 There shouldn't be a gap there for male versus female. 00:50:31.760 --> 00:50:39.100 Like, and so I, I, I feel, and again, gut feel could be completely wrong, 00:50:39.100 --> 00:50:45.860 but my gut feel is that the, the, the models of turnout are underestimating. 00:50:46.820 --> 00:50:50.820 The angry women about the overturn of Roe v. Wade. 00:50:51.040 --> 00:50:59.700 And that will be one factor that makes me bet, well, bet, I don't know, 00:51:00.160 --> 00:51:06.320 makes me think that there's a good chance we're underestimating Harris this time around. 00:51:06.600 --> 00:51:08.920 But again, who the fuck knows? 00:51:09.360 --> 00:51:13.500 You know, here's one thing that I want to point out. 00:51:13.500 --> 00:51:19.520 And I made a note that you were talking about the errors and how in 2020 it 00:51:19.520 --> 00:51:23.280 undercounted the Republicans in terms of absolute votes, 00:51:23.420 --> 00:51:27.600 especially the margin of victory in like Pennsylvania and a few states that 00:51:27.600 --> 00:51:31.560 look like they were more Democrat, that look more Democratic according to the 00:51:31.560 --> 00:51:35.920 polls than the actual final results were. But here's a flip side to that. 00:51:36.440 --> 00:51:40.060 They misjudged the margin of victory, but not the victory itself. 00:51:40.700 --> 00:51:45.160 The one thing is that that happened at that election that was interesting from 00:51:45.160 --> 00:51:49.700 my perspective was those margins didn't change the result because it's based 00:51:49.700 --> 00:51:51.120 on winner-take-all electoral vote. 00:51:51.240 --> 00:51:54.960 But what did happen was that all of a sudden we thought both Georgia and Arizona 00:51:54.960 --> 00:52:00.400 were not going to be, were going to be Republican and both wound up Democratic. 00:52:01.460 --> 00:52:04.360 And so the one thing about this 00:52:04.360 --> 00:52:11.140 is that, yes, the 2020 election did underestimate the margins of victory. 00:52:11.340 --> 00:52:16.960 They were closer in some states that won't, but the changes did not impact the 00:52:16.960 --> 00:52:20.220 final result in terms of those states. What it did was it made it narrower. 00:52:20.520 --> 00:52:26.200 But but in in other cases, what we wound up doing is in states that were wound 00:52:26.200 --> 00:52:31.380 up being probably, you know, you know, that made a made a big difference in 00:52:31.380 --> 00:52:32.980 what the final result was. 00:52:34.180 --> 00:52:40.540 It moved a couple of states that people had as Republican and want to moving 00:52:40.540 --> 00:52:41.980 them, moving them Democrats. 00:52:42.160 --> 00:52:47.580 So I thought that that was one of the more interesting results of that election. 00:52:47.580 --> 00:52:52.360 And, of course, the question is, when we talk about this, is how have people 00:52:52.360 --> 00:52:53.840 compensated for that, number one? 00:52:54.000 --> 00:52:54.240 Yeah. 00:52:54.240 --> 00:52:54.480 Okay? 00:52:54.640 --> 00:53:01.180 Well, this is the other thing. I feel like pollsters have said, 00:53:01.180 --> 00:53:02.860 we got it wrong two years in a row. 00:53:03.080 --> 00:53:07.160 How do we fix that? Right. And they've probably overcompensated. 00:53:07.780 --> 00:53:11.780 And the other part is, like, you reiterated. 00:53:11.900 --> 00:53:14.900 How much of all this argument that we just made over the last couple of minutes 00:53:14.900 --> 00:53:16.920 is us trying to make ourselves feel better? 00:53:17.580 --> 00:53:23.740 You know, I don't I don't think it's well, I don't I don't feel any better by 00:53:23.740 --> 00:53:26.900 making any of these arguments. I got to I got to be honest with you. 00:53:27.540 --> 00:53:32.780 My it goes back to what you were saying yesterday on the Slack. 00:53:32.920 --> 00:53:37.700 And Sam is like, well, you know, this, that I mean, we're so down or whatever. 00:53:37.700 --> 00:53:40.680 And I don't think it has anything to do with. 00:53:42.660 --> 00:53:52.240 What I said specifically was that compared to a month and a half, 00:53:52.380 --> 00:53:57.800 two months ago, I was specifically talking about, there was this point in time shortly after. 00:53:58.800 --> 00:53:59.840 Yeah. Right. 00:54:00.200 --> 00:54:00.220 Right. 00:54:01.300 --> 00:54:01.940 Right. 00:54:03.040 --> 00:54:07.300 Right. Right. Right around where right around when Harris pick walls, 00:54:07.300 --> 00:54:13.960 right around when the VP choice was the where there's all of there was this 00:54:13.960 --> 00:54:17.260 sort of what was described as the joyous campaign. 00:54:17.480 --> 00:54:20.780 Right. We had like it looked exciting and positive and whatever. 00:54:20.780 --> 00:54:23.540 And Walls was doing their weird thing. 00:54:23.740 --> 00:54:27.640 And that seemed to be hitting. And I'm not talking about on polls. 00:54:27.780 --> 00:54:30.520 I'm just talking about vibes, essentially. 00:54:30.780 --> 00:54:37.540 That method of argument seemed to be getting traction that, hey, 00:54:38.420 --> 00:54:42.940 Trump is dangerous, Trump is scary, had not gotten. 00:54:43.440 --> 00:54:50.360 And then it seems like more recently that that sort of their weird stuff seems 00:54:50.360 --> 00:54:55.360 to be a thing of the past and we're back to sort of trump is scary and and at 00:54:55.360 --> 00:55:00.260 the same time like the like i said the the democrats are wetting the bed they're 00:55:00.260 --> 00:55:03.060 they're but but it's because we're all saying but it's very. 00:55:03.060 --> 00:55:04.200 Simple here here's. 00:55:04.200 --> 00:55:08.100 It's because it's because no but but i. 00:55:08.100 --> 00:55:09.620 I think it's also more than that. 00:55:09.620 --> 00:55:10.300 Yeah we're. 00:55:10.300 --> 00:55:16.460 All what that these motherfucking right-wingers are complaining and bitching and moaning about. 00:55:16.900 --> 00:55:17.020 Right? 00:55:17.400 --> 00:55:18.460 You know what? 00:55:19.250 --> 00:55:24.570 No, Harris isn't out there saying that she is going to jail her opponents. 00:55:25.130 --> 00:55:30.650 She isn't going out there and saying that she's going to take any any of the Republicans rights. 00:55:31.010 --> 00:55:36.850 None of this shit, whatever straw man they have, they have, they have, they have made up. 00:55:37.130 --> 00:55:39.350 The reality is that for the Democrats, 00:55:39.750 --> 00:55:43.990 I mean, this guy is literally said that he wants to turn the U.S. 00:55:44.130 --> 00:55:45.450 Military against his own people. 00:55:45.890 --> 00:55:46.270 Right. 00:55:46.530 --> 00:55:53.990 Flat out. I mean, you know, you've got women suffering from the health care 00:55:53.990 --> 00:55:59.890 decisions, from the health care positions that the Republican Party has pushed forward. 00:56:00.270 --> 00:56:06.190 And, you know, the only hopes to make perhaps a change in the future is not 00:56:06.190 --> 00:56:09.630 to reelect Republicans like right now. 00:56:09.790 --> 00:56:14.350 And if you do that, you're entrenching that further. Okay? 00:56:15.390 --> 00:56:20.110 All of these things. I mean, listen, the attacks on the transgender community, Sam. 00:56:20.670 --> 00:56:27.590 Fuck, man. If you're a transgender person and you're not petrified of a fucking 00:56:27.590 --> 00:56:31.550 Republican administration, you're Caitlyn Jenner, basically. 00:56:32.530 --> 00:56:36.030 That's the only fucking person. Because it's like the same thing as the Peter 00:56:36.030 --> 00:56:37.350 Thiel's and the Caitlyn Jenner's. 00:56:37.450 --> 00:56:41.010 They're rich enough that they think, ah, you know, I'll get my taxes. 00:56:41.210 --> 00:56:42.530 None of that shit's going to affect me. 00:56:42.950 --> 00:56:43.410 Right. 00:56:44.530 --> 00:56:49.390 Those are the people that you know, it's not happening to me you know, 00:56:49.490 --> 00:56:52.550 fuck them fuck those poor people you know, 00:56:53.890 --> 00:56:58.890 and I gotta be honest you know, we are in a world right now that even fucking 00:56:58.890 --> 00:57:01.010 Bill Gates is sick of fucking billionaires, 00:57:02.910 --> 00:57:07.610 seriously, he basically just flat out said, fuck it take most of my money away, 00:57:07.730 --> 00:57:10.950 this is not worth it not with all these other clowns fuck this, 00:57:10.970 --> 00:57:15.250 you know what I'd rather just give up all my fucking money and take their fucking 00:57:15.250 --> 00:57:17.130 money because they're just fucking everything up. 00:57:17.570 --> 00:57:18.070 Right. 00:57:18.570 --> 00:57:22.950 I mean, that's the fucking world we're in, where Bill Gates basically said, 00:57:23.410 --> 00:57:28.210 shit, tax me, take it all away. Out loud. 00:57:28.710 --> 00:57:35.690 Right. Okay. So we're moving on at this point from the polls and the horse race 00:57:35.690 --> 00:57:38.330 to all the other campaign related stuff. 00:57:38.330 --> 00:57:44.090 So let's take a quick break and we'll, we'll go through some of the other things 00:57:44.090 --> 00:57:49.630 that are affecting this last 10 days of this race. 00:57:49.890 --> 00:57:51.990 Back after this. 00:57:52.930 --> 00:58:02.190 Do, do, do. This podcast is sponsored by AlexMzilla.com. 00:58:02.970 --> 00:58:11.790 Alex Mzilla is great. It's on YouTube, and it has lots of fun videos. 00:58:12.740 --> 00:58:16.640 Alex Emsola is awesome and great. 00:58:17.040 --> 00:58:22.120 I love his videos, and they are obviously better than Curmudgeon's Corner. 00:58:22.580 --> 00:58:26.680 While they're funnier, they're more interesting. And frankly, 00:58:26.940 --> 00:58:31.980 he seems at least a little smarter than either of the hosts of Curmudgeon's Corner. 00:58:32.440 --> 00:58:42.180 Honestly, it's ridiculous how endlessly talented and phenomenal Alex Emsola is. 00:58:42.740 --> 00:58:46.000 That's how great his YouTube channel is. 00:58:46.380 --> 00:58:54.060 A-L-E-X-M-X-E-L-A dot com. 00:58:54.420 --> 00:58:56.720 Yes. Do, do, do. 00:58:57.500 --> 00:59:02.640 Okay, we are back. And real quick, just during the break, I thought of something 00:59:02.640 --> 00:59:04.080 responding to what you were talking 00:59:04.080 --> 00:59:10.800 about in how in 2020, the polls in Pennsylvania underestimated Trump. 00:59:10.800 --> 00:59:16.200 But the polls in Arizona and Georgia underestimated Biden, for instance. 00:59:17.440 --> 00:59:25.560 This is exactly why I have two models, one that's independent states and one that's uniform swing. 00:59:25.740 --> 00:59:34.180 It's because basically, when we're talking about the polling error underestimated 00:59:34.180 --> 00:59:37.420 Trump in 2020, we're talking on average. 00:59:37.740 --> 00:59:42.680 It's actually different state by state. And the difference between my two models 00:59:42.680 --> 00:59:47.080 is the independent states assumes that there's completely no relation whatsoever 00:59:47.080 --> 00:59:48.860 to the errors in every state, 00:59:49.020 --> 00:59:54.740 whereas the uniform swing one assumes that the errors are the same in every state. 00:59:54.740 --> 00:59:59.480 And obviously neither one of those things is actually true. They are correlated. 00:59:59.920 --> 01:00:04.820 Like if the, if, if the same pollsters are doing the same thing in a whole bunch 01:00:04.820 --> 01:00:07.120 of states that are likely going to make the same kind of error, 01:00:07.360 --> 01:00:13.220 but you get this kind of effect where like not every state is going to be the exact same way. 01:00:13.360 --> 01:00:16.940 So that's exactly why I have those two. Now, at some point I'd like to like 01:00:16.940 --> 01:00:20.460 merge them and maybe for 2028, I'll figure that out. Anyway, 01:00:21.220 --> 01:00:22.560 let's hit some of the other stuff. 01:00:23.680 --> 01:00:26.240 So this week we had like... 01:00:26.560 --> 01:00:32.440 John Kelly, who was Trump's chief of staff and had a whole bunch of other things 01:00:32.440 --> 01:00:35.780 that he did before that, but basically he came out on the record. 01:00:35.900 --> 01:00:39.680 We'd heard some of these things off the record before, but he came out on the 01:00:39.680 --> 01:00:47.160 record, on audio, there were recordings of him talking about basically how Trump 01:00:47.160 --> 01:00:49.260 wants to be a dictator, how he loved Hitler. 01:00:49.260 --> 01:00:53.080 He wants his generals to be more like Hitler's generals, how like, 01:00:53.360 --> 01:00:57.960 you know, he had agreed to pay for this one funeral of of a military person 01:00:57.960 --> 01:01:05.280 who had been not killed in combat, but killed on their own base by people beating her up, apparently. 01:01:05.760 --> 01:01:09.860 But like then then he found out how much a funeral would cost and was like, 01:01:09.980 --> 01:01:14.540 you know, it doesn't cost 60,000 fucking doesn't cost $60,000. 01:01:14.540 --> 01:01:16.380 To bury a fucking Mexican. 01:01:16.380 --> 01:01:17.520 Well to. 01:01:17.520 --> 01:01:23.700 Be fair okay in his assessment of burying anybody i mean he did bury his ex-wife 01:01:23.700 --> 01:01:25.980 in his side his fucking golf course. 01:01:25.980 --> 01:01:31.840 Yes he did but look because we all know he's a cheap bastard like oh my god 01:01:31.840 --> 01:01:42.560 but here's the thing like this is another one of those things where in any previous 01:01:42.560 --> 01:01:45.200 universe prior to the last 10 years, 01:01:45.460 --> 01:01:48.760 this kind of thing would be the end immediately for a candidate. 01:01:48.980 --> 01:01:52.140 Immediately. The candidate would be, oh, it's over. It's over. 01:01:52.540 --> 01:01:56.400 But that is not true of Donald Trump. Like all this stuff. 01:01:56.400 --> 01:01:57.140 It's so ridiculous. 01:01:57.900 --> 01:02:02.620 You know, this is all sort of baked in, as they say. 01:02:02.980 --> 01:02:07.320 And, you know, I've seen people saying, you know, we shouldn't, 01:02:07.560 --> 01:02:11.940 the whole normalized thing, we shouldn't normalize it, we shouldn't whatever but it's like at this. 01:02:11.940 --> 01:02:17.520 Point listen people are saying about normalizing it it is blasted you know headlines 01:02:17.520 --> 01:02:22.800 you know yeah and the kind of blasted headlines in the past brought down a immediately 01:02:22.800 --> 01:02:30.300 and right now the mega folks are like so what whatever yeah whatever that's. 01:02:30.300 --> 01:02:32.860 Fine well and and part of this and and, 01:02:33.820 --> 01:02:37.720 I've said this before, but it's worth saying again and again and again. 01:02:38.140 --> 01:02:46.460 There's this, the Democrats going back all the way to 2015 when Trump first came down to escalator. 01:02:46.720 --> 01:02:52.120 And hell, at first the mainstream Republicans were doing this too before they all got crushed. 01:02:52.800 --> 01:02:59.960 Kept sort of feeling like all we have to do is expose how shitty a person Trump 01:02:59.960 --> 01:03:04.400 is better. We need to show the bad things he's done. 01:03:04.540 --> 01:03:09.820 We show that he's an asshole, show that he's all the bad things we know. 01:03:09.960 --> 01:03:13.800 And then at some point, all his supporters will abandon him. 01:03:14.560 --> 01:03:22.660 And look, long ago, it became absolutely clear that was never going to happen. 01:03:22.660 --> 01:03:31.780 And the reason is the Trump supporters are not Trump supporters because they don't know this stuff. 01:03:32.140 --> 01:03:35.740 They're not even Trump supporters despite this stuff. 01:03:36.120 --> 01:03:39.620 They're Trump supporters because of this stuff. 01:03:39.780 --> 01:03:45.320 They like it. They want it. So being like, oh, did you know Trump loves Hitler? 01:03:46.000 --> 01:03:51.520 That's not like, oh, crap. Well, I can't support him now. That's like, good. So do I. 01:03:52.860 --> 01:03:55.640 Look last week i did not not me to 01:03:55.640 --> 01:03:58.460 be clear i'm not yeah yeah you're you're acting in third 01:03:58.460 --> 01:04:01.680 person yes let's be clear sam does not like hitler uh let's 01:04:01.680 --> 01:04:04.620 clarify that for anybody who got confused and maybe all 01:04:04.620 --> 01:04:08.180 of a sudden we wind up getting a clip of sam out there how he loves hitler which 01:04:08.180 --> 01:04:16.180 that would be just hilarious but anyway you know i was thinking about how i 01:04:16.180 --> 01:04:21.880 i think a large subset of people that like Trump are like the, 01:04:22.940 --> 01:04:27.200 high school clique kind of people. 01:04:27.940 --> 01:04:32.620 They're really like you know, the guys who. 01:04:34.040 --> 01:04:39.120 People in high school that used to put down everybody, make fun of people, 01:04:39.780 --> 01:04:45.340 beat up on the weaker people, kind of a thing. The thing. 01:04:45.640 --> 01:04:50.060 That's what they did. You had these groups of people who would just get together 01:04:50.060 --> 01:04:57.720 and just beat up on anybody that wasn't the so-called cool people. 01:04:58.820 --> 01:05:03.600 And those people, they don't give a shit about the weak. 01:05:04.040 --> 01:05:08.440 They don't give a shit about the poor. They don't give a shit about these people. 01:05:08.860 --> 01:05:13.280 And like you said, when Trump comes out and says all these things, 01:05:13.620 --> 01:05:17.180 these are things that they, that this is what they like. 01:05:18.180 --> 01:05:23.360 You know, and, and this, this last week, you know, I had mentioned that there 01:05:23.360 --> 01:05:27.700 was a couple of teenage girls over here that, that, that made their, 01:05:28.020 --> 01:05:32.120 their got themselves a little bit famous because they're really good at driving a boat. 01:05:32.720 --> 01:05:33.240 Okay. 01:05:33.540 --> 01:05:36.540 All right. twins young 01:05:36.540 --> 01:05:39.840 you know there's a 01:05:39.840 --> 01:05:42.500 whole bunch of people here that watch boats coming in and out of the 01:05:42.500 --> 01:05:45.640 inlet and some of our inlets are very tricky and man 01:05:45.640 --> 01:05:51.140 they were really good okay at driving a boat and then you know so i i followed 01:05:51.140 --> 01:05:54.820 them because it's pretty cool like watching you know they started doing a whole 01:05:54.820 --> 01:05:58.940 because so many people in the boating industry know about them followed them 01:05:58.940 --> 01:06:03.060 and they were doing like you know boat shows and stuff and whatnot you know which just, 01:06:03.140 --> 01:06:05.480 I was like, oh, that's kind of cool, you know, and you know, 01:06:05.620 --> 01:06:08.580 look, I'm one that drives a boat, and I was just, honestly, 01:06:08.740 --> 01:06:11.540 I was very impressed with how they drove a boat. 01:06:11.640 --> 01:06:16.180 I will tell you, better than me, and they were very young, okay? So. 01:06:17.530 --> 01:06:24.230 And then this weekend, like a whole bunch of them that seem like exactly this 01:06:24.230 --> 01:06:29.630 kind of high school, like, cool clique together got together. 01:06:29.750 --> 01:06:31.590 And they're all having this party. 01:06:31.930 --> 01:06:34.450 And a bunch of them are wearing MAGA hats. 01:06:34.910 --> 01:06:39.250 And they got Trump flags and all these stuff. And these people are like 20. 01:06:39.510 --> 01:06:43.910 And a whole bunch of them are like women. And they're all like, 01:06:44.150 --> 01:06:47.650 you know, oh yeah, Trump is cool. 01:06:48.670 --> 01:06:55.790 And I'm just like, oh yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's this whole high school thing, man. 01:06:56.010 --> 01:07:00.770 It's, it's literal. Look, honestly, I've said this before. I'll repeat it. 01:07:01.110 --> 01:07:04.230 Look, this is like back to the future part two, man. 01:07:04.650 --> 01:07:08.630 It's really Biff Tannen fucking becoming president. 01:07:09.110 --> 01:07:11.030 Literally the casino. 01:07:12.130 --> 01:07:16.550 The, you know, you know, controlling the government, sending us everything. 01:07:17.210 --> 01:07:20.950 It might as well, you know, fuck. It's exactly the same. 01:07:21.350 --> 01:07:26.230 Because, of course, Biff Tannen was based on Donald Trump in Back to the Future 2. But yes. 01:07:27.110 --> 01:07:28.770 Wait, are you shitting me? 01:07:29.250 --> 01:07:33.370 No, no. His character was based on Donald Trump. Get the fuck out of here. 01:07:33.490 --> 01:07:36.270 Not in Back to the Future 1 when he was just a kid. 01:07:36.570 --> 01:07:40.450 But the character that they made him into when he became famous in Back to the 01:07:40.450 --> 01:07:42.750 Future 2 was based directly on Donald Trump? 01:07:43.370 --> 01:07:43.510 Yeah. 01:07:43.910 --> 01:07:45.010 Motherfucking hell! 01:07:47.550 --> 01:07:49.110 Well, that explains a lot. 01:07:52.570 --> 01:07:53.210 Shit! 01:07:53.710 --> 01:07:54.270 Yes. 01:07:54.750 --> 01:07:59.730 Okay. So, yeah! It's that future! I don't know! 01:08:00.050 --> 01:08:03.090 Now, there are... I've seen some polling. 01:08:03.570 --> 01:08:06.130 But my point... But I didn't finish one thing. 01:08:06.450 --> 01:08:07.190 Oh, yeah. Finish, finish. 01:08:07.610 --> 01:08:10.570 You know, this group of people, the whole 01:08:10.570 --> 01:08:13.570 thing is about being the 01:08:13.570 --> 01:08:17.110 it people you know we're the 01:08:17.110 --> 01:08:19.810 you know we're the ones that go 01:08:19.810 --> 01:08:23.530 to mar-a-lago so i've heard some of these people talk what you know and we're 01:08:23.530 --> 01:08:28.250 we're with the famous people and we're you know and you know we're we're hot 01:08:28.250 --> 01:08:35.430 you know you know and you know they all like you know dress very you know provocatively 01:08:35.430 --> 01:08:39.290 and you know and then they visualize trump as some sexy guy, 01:08:39.430 --> 01:08:41.690 which he isn't because he is, 01:08:42.150 --> 01:08:46.750 old and fat and out of shape, which I don't understand. 01:08:46.830 --> 01:08:50.930 I mean, I don't understand how they idealize him in that way when the guy is 01:08:50.930 --> 01:08:52.550 just an out of shape, fat fuck. 01:08:54.370 --> 01:08:59.310 I don't get it. Not that there is anything wrong with it, but the thing is that 01:08:59.310 --> 01:09:02.570 he puts himself out there like some Adonis. 01:09:02.950 --> 01:09:09.010 His followers literally draw him and caricature him as something looking like 01:09:09.010 --> 01:09:11.690 that when he is not anywhere like that. 01:09:12.010 --> 01:09:15.790 And honestly, that's one trait that he shares with Hitler. Because think about Hitler, right? 01:09:16.470 --> 01:09:23.010 Did Hitler have blonde hair, blue eyes? Was he tall? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. No! 01:09:23.850 --> 01:09:30.310 No, this whole Aryan race that he talked about, he had none of those traits. 01:09:31.270 --> 01:09:33.210 These fucking people, they drive me nuts. 01:09:36.110 --> 01:09:41.450 Yvonne's about to run out of time. So just on the sort of, 01:09:41.630 --> 01:09:46.630 this is what they like, this is what his supporters like, I have seen some polling 01:09:46.630 --> 01:09:51.530 and a lot of anecdotal stuff about how lots of Trump supporters, 01:09:52.370 --> 01:09:57.730 just don't believe he's going to do the things he says he's going to do that 01:09:57.730 --> 01:10:02.270 people on the other side are all like upset about like oh you know he's going 01:10:02.270 --> 01:10:06.110 to use the military this way he's going to politicize he's going to go after 01:10:06.110 --> 01:10:08.910 his political opponents there is a significant. 01:10:08.910 --> 01:10:10.450 Number of them that do. 01:10:10.450 --> 01:10:11.310 That are in the large. 01:10:11.310 --> 01:10:14.790 Yeah i think there is a significant number i'm totally sure of that. 01:10:14.790 --> 01:10:19.870 That they just don't believe it like when they they're like you know oh all 01:10:19.870 --> 01:10:23.450 of these all of these liberals who are crying about, 01:10:24.490 --> 01:10:29.390 Trump derangement syndrome, the death of democracy, Trump's going to be a dictator, 01:10:29.630 --> 01:10:31.350 Trump's going to do this, Trump's going to do that. 01:10:31.530 --> 01:10:33.830 It's all bullshit. And look, 01:10:34.470 --> 01:10:40.730 I certainly hope the worst case scenarios pointed out by liberals will not come 01:10:40.730 --> 01:10:47.910 to true, come to true, not come to reality, even if Donald Trump wins. It will be bad. 01:10:48.150 --> 01:10:50.230 I hope it's not that bad. 01:10:50.510 --> 01:10:59.290 But, you know, the the fact that people are I mean, look, we saw what he did when he was president. 01:10:59.290 --> 01:11:05.010 And I guess the difference is like folks like Yvonne and I think that was an 01:11:05.010 --> 01:11:09.510 absolutely horrid four years where there were bad things happening practically 01:11:09.510 --> 01:11:11.690 every week due to his presidency, 01:11:12.370 --> 01:11:14.970 including, of course, January 6th at the end. 01:11:15.550 --> 01:11:18.570 And it was building. 01:11:18.850 --> 01:11:19.410 That's the thing. 01:11:19.630 --> 01:11:19.970 Yes. 01:11:20.670 --> 01:11:25.210 I think people are missing the point that it was building because at the beginning 01:11:25.210 --> 01:11:29.090 there were a lot of people that were actively trying really hard. 01:11:29.290 --> 01:11:32.370 To stop him from doing the worst things. And as time went along. 01:11:32.810 --> 01:11:36.710 People in the administration who were trying to be breaks on him. 01:11:36.810 --> 01:11:41.970 Yes. And as time went along, he started getting rid of every single person that 01:11:41.970 --> 01:11:43.210 told him he can't do this. 01:11:43.750 --> 01:11:50.710 Right. And so it was getting worse. And, you know, look, and January 6th denial 01:11:50.710 --> 01:11:52.330 is out there too. I heard... 01:11:53.310 --> 01:11:55.170 Nobody died on January 6th, Sam. 01:11:55.650 --> 01:11:58.830 Yeah. Except the people who did. Yes. 01:11:59.710 --> 01:12:03.430 I saw one TikTok from somebody who outlined, 01:12:03.630 --> 01:12:08.130 he bumped into an old friend at a grocery store or something like that of someone 01:12:08.130 --> 01:12:14.810 who was a Trump supporter and who asked him why he wasn't because he had like 01:12:14.810 --> 01:12:16.110 Harris hat on or something. 01:12:16.390 --> 01:12:19.150 And he described January 6th and he's like, oh, I'm sorry. 01:12:19.630 --> 01:12:22.270 The other guy was like, January 6th, what are you talking about? 01:12:22.410 --> 01:12:23.670 Nothing happened there. 01:12:23.990 --> 01:12:25.370 A day of love. A day of love. 01:12:25.370 --> 01:12:31.530 It was just a protest, whatever. And haven't you seen the videos of the police 01:12:31.530 --> 01:12:34.290 letting them in? It's all hyped. It's all made up. 01:12:34.470 --> 01:12:37.510 And he's like, haven't you seen the videos? 01:12:37.530 --> 01:12:37.870 The videos? 01:12:38.350 --> 01:12:41.430 Of them being violent. And he's like, he hadn't. 01:12:41.550 --> 01:12:45.750 So he pulled out his phone and showed him some of those videos and says, 01:12:45.870 --> 01:12:48.970 by the reaction, it was absolutely obvious that he'd 01:12:48.970 --> 01:12:52.370 never seen any of that and had 01:12:52.370 --> 01:12:55.550 no idea that any of that had happened now he 01:12:55.550 --> 01:12:59.170 ends with like i don't know if i changed his vote or not probably not but like 01:12:59.170 --> 01:13:06.430 at the very least i i was showing him something he had no idea he had zero idea 01:13:06.430 --> 01:13:10.730 because in the media ecosystem he was in which was a doesn't pay attention for 01:13:10.730 --> 01:13:13.210 to news very much and when he does it's Fox. 01:13:13.890 --> 01:13:17.670 That was the description of this guy. And that's the description of lots of people. 01:13:17.830 --> 01:13:19.790 Lots of people. A lot of people. 01:13:20.370 --> 01:13:25.590 Now, I know you got to go, Yvonne. There are a few more bullet points I wanted 01:13:25.590 --> 01:13:27.090 to hit. I could hit them after you're gone. 01:13:28.030 --> 01:13:32.550 Well, can we hit quick before we go? I got a few minutes. 01:13:33.210 --> 01:13:37.930 One, there was a report this week that was going through the ecosystem. 01:13:38.170 --> 01:13:41.990 Mark Halperin started this saying that there's a story being shopped around 01:13:41.990 --> 01:13:45.930 of something absolutely devastating to Donald Trump. 01:13:46.250 --> 01:13:49.890 And then further rumors said, wait, let me say this. And then I'll, 01:13:50.010 --> 01:13:53.410 I think I'm where with you are based on Yvonne's making faces. 01:13:54.830 --> 01:14:00.070 There were further rumors that what this was specifically was there was video 01:14:00.070 --> 01:14:08.270 of Donald Trump at a recent fundraising event, groping a teenager, okay? 01:14:08.870 --> 01:14:12.990 I will say, listen, in terms of devastating, I don't know. But this is kind 01:14:12.990 --> 01:14:15.710 of like Comey letter type of stuff, okay? 01:14:15.870 --> 01:14:20.350 So I will say this. If you've got a video that you can circulate of this being 01:14:20.350 --> 01:14:23.650 true, it has that level of impact, okay? 01:14:24.630 --> 01:14:28.430 Honestly, where I am at this point, it could have that impact. 01:14:28.630 --> 01:14:33.730 It's a small marginal impact, like all of these, because it's like all of the 01:14:33.730 --> 01:14:37.050 Christian conservatives will be like, ah, he's still giving my judges. 01:14:37.470 --> 01:14:41.710 Right. And look, like you can imagine also a video that's somewhat ambiguous, right? 01:14:41.890 --> 01:14:45.370 Like maybe there's a video, but like, you know, from the angle, 01:14:45.530 --> 01:14:47.750 it's like, well, was he really doing that on purpose? 01:14:48.110 --> 01:14:53.230 Or look, look, we've had videos of Donald Trump groping his daughter on stage 01:14:53.230 --> 01:14:55.330 at Republican convention and stuff. 01:14:56.110 --> 01:15:01.050 You know, like, did that change anything? No. 01:15:01.450 --> 01:15:05.230 But like, here's the thing. I actually think this is bullshit. 01:15:05.470 --> 01:15:08.230 I don't think there is any such tape. If there was such a tape, 01:15:08.410 --> 01:15:09.350 we would have seen it by now. 01:15:09.990 --> 01:15:13.150 You know, I don't know. This is all just disinformation. 01:15:13.570 --> 01:15:16.490 I don't know. Here's the answer. I don't know. 01:15:16.610 --> 01:15:22.590 I will say that it's very plausible that such a video exists. 01:15:23.090 --> 01:15:27.270 It is plausible. It is absolutely plausible. but I mean this guy basically. 01:15:27.270 --> 01:15:32.070 Said you know in the one that you know didn't bring him that one of the first 01:15:32.070 --> 01:15:36.630 ones that didn't bring him down how did he say hi to women just grab him by the pussy right. 01:15:36.630 --> 01:15:38.210 Yeah so. 01:15:38.210 --> 01:15:39.590 What the fuck you know. 01:15:39.590 --> 01:15:42.430 Oh look I I'm sure he is engaged in this 01:15:42.430 --> 01:15:45.450 behavior at various times I I would not it is 01:15:45.450 --> 01:15:49.810 completely plausible that a video exists I'm just saying like if this video 01:15:49.810 --> 01:15:55.570 existed i am surprised like it would be surprising to me that we have not seen 01:15:55.570 --> 01:15:59.070 it already like that we would get all of these rumors about they're shopping 01:15:59.070 --> 01:16:04.610 around this story but no one's taken it maybe somebody's trying to take it. 01:16:04.610 --> 01:16:07.330 Maybe somebody's just trying to make money off the fucking thing. 01:16:07.330 --> 01:16:11.430 I i could see that too i could see that too like you can have this video you 01:16:11.430 --> 01:16:16.910 go where's my two million dollar give me give me my money yeah whereas reputable 01:16:16.910 --> 01:16:19.030 news organizations of course won't pay that won't. 01:16:19.030 --> 01:16:20.630 Pay for it right exactly so. 01:16:20.630 --> 01:16:21.330 That so you. 01:16:21.330 --> 01:16:22.450 Wind up in this situation. 01:16:22.450 --> 01:16:26.630 So somebody would pay that you know i don't know if. 01:16:26.630 --> 01:16:30.950 I had the money and i could validate it's real i'll fucking pay for it. 01:16:30.950 --> 01:16:34.190 Yeah and and of course like our you 01:16:34.190 --> 01:16:38.270 know maybe validation is part of it too are we sure it's not ai generated you 01:16:38.270 --> 01:16:43.290 know all this kind of stuff you know i don't know but like yeah it falls into 01:16:43.290 --> 01:16:48.230 the category of the other stuff like i mean we are we are 100 percent in i could 01:16:48.230 --> 01:16:50.930 shoot somebody on fifth avenue and it wouldn't change a single fucking vote 01:16:50.930 --> 01:16:53.210 you know and it's true and it's true i. 01:16:53.210 --> 01:16:58.090 Can't believe how this guy i he was so right about himself in that way. 01:16:58.090 --> 01:17:05.730 I mean there are those marginal folks the the other the other just maybe we shot. 01:17:05.730 --> 01:17:06.830 Ivanka on stage. 01:17:06.830 --> 01:17:15.770 Well you know if ivanka came out and on camera said, yeah, he molested me my 01:17:15.770 --> 01:17:18.110 entire childhood, maybe that would move. 01:17:18.210 --> 01:17:21.290 That'll move a few points. Honestly, seriously. 01:17:21.570 --> 01:17:22.110 I know. 01:17:22.290 --> 01:17:23.870 Oh, it's only a few points. 01:17:24.910 --> 01:17:31.630 Ah, yes. No, I'm not necessarily, I obviously have no evidence about that. 01:17:32.550 --> 01:17:33.090 Yeah, whatever. 01:17:33.650 --> 01:17:35.690 And I got to be honest. 01:17:36.290 --> 01:17:37.610 But would anybody be surprised? 01:17:37.630 --> 01:17:42.070 I wouldn't be surprised, but for the love of God, I really wish that that didn't happen. 01:17:42.550 --> 01:17:43.670 Yeah, yeah, obviously. 01:17:43.830 --> 01:17:48.350 Okay, all right. You know, to be clear. Okay, nobody's wishing that Ivanka was 01:17:48.350 --> 01:17:50.190 molested by this monster. Okay? 01:17:50.850 --> 01:17:54.910 Right. Absolutely. Okay, real quick. 01:17:55.070 --> 01:17:59.950 Other things that came out this week. both Elon Musk and Donald Trump apparently 01:17:59.950 --> 01:18:02.990 talking to Putin on a regular basis over the last couple years? 01:18:03.390 --> 01:18:08.590 Well, now we understand why. Now it finally makes sense. 01:18:08.930 --> 01:18:13.630 Why Elon said in that interview it slipped out that said that the Democrats 01:18:13.630 --> 01:18:18.390 went, one, that he was worried that he was going to jail. 01:18:18.890 --> 01:18:24.350 And now it all adds up. Because that son of a bitch had to have that in the back of his head. 01:18:24.350 --> 01:18:30.610 And also, apparently, Donald Trump says he's talking to Bibi almost every day. 01:18:30.830 --> 01:18:33.870 That's not surprising. I will say that, 01:18:34.250 --> 01:18:40.650 look, especially from Bibi, because like I said before, Bibi fucking came to 01:18:40.650 --> 01:18:46.430 Congress to campaign basically against fucking Obama in 2012. 01:18:46.530 --> 01:18:52.350 He gave a speech against him here. So what the hell is going to make me feel 01:18:52.350 --> 01:18:54.710 like this has changed in any way, 01:18:54.770 --> 01:19:01.190 shape or form that he's going and like talking to to Trump, who apparently wants 01:19:01.190 --> 01:19:05.990 to flatten Gaza and like develop it into some kind of like real estate and just 01:19:05.990 --> 01:19:08.210 kill all the Palestinians or something like that? 01:19:08.550 --> 01:19:15.490 Yeah, the ethnic cleansing plan is almost completely out in the open now. 01:19:16.030 --> 01:19:18.250 Yeah, it's like it's yeah. 01:19:20.050 --> 01:19:25.530 Anyway, speaking of that, just to toss up a couple of last bullet points, 01:19:26.030 --> 01:19:29.750 Israel did do their attack on Iran. 01:19:30.670 --> 01:19:34.070 It looks like it was relatively limited, military targets only. 01:19:34.490 --> 01:19:37.330 Hopefully, we're done for the moment. We shall see. 01:19:38.850 --> 01:19:44.050 And also, North Korea is apparently putting troops in Ukraine now. 01:19:44.790 --> 01:19:49.150 Oh, and that's that's such a sign of strength by Putin that he has to grab North 01:19:49.150 --> 01:19:54.070 Korean malnourished troops to put in the front line in fucking Ukraine. 01:19:54.490 --> 01:19:58.710 I mean, you want to you want to tell me how this this is? And I guess it's just 01:19:58.710 --> 01:20:01.950 an exchange. You know, what's his name needs energy and stuff and whatever. 01:20:02.230 --> 01:20:05.730 And so, oh, well, here, I'll just send some soldiers for you to sacrifice in 01:20:05.730 --> 01:20:07.810 the front line of Ukraine. Here we go there. 01:20:08.830 --> 01:20:13.910 Yeah. And I don't think either of those two things are going to affect the election. 01:20:13.910 --> 01:20:15.370 It's too little, too late. 01:20:15.770 --> 01:20:21.290 Like whatever's baked in there. I think the whole situation in the Middle East 01:20:21.290 --> 01:20:23.810 probably does not help Harris at all. 01:20:24.130 --> 01:20:31.090 Like the big drop in Biden's numbers actually came after October 7th of last year. 01:20:31.410 --> 01:20:39.050 I don't know. Like there seems to still be that continuous drag from very left-leaning 01:20:39.050 --> 01:20:43.210 people who are like, I can't vote for Harris because she supports genocide. 01:20:43.910 --> 01:20:49.650 That are just withholding their vote entirely, which, you know, I'm sorry. 01:20:50.170 --> 01:20:55.990 Yeah, to support a guy who has basically made it his banner campaign to go and 01:20:55.990 --> 01:20:58.230 ethnically cleanse the whole damn place. 01:20:58.390 --> 01:21:00.910 Yes, that's very helpful. Yes. 01:21:01.430 --> 01:21:05.710 Well, they're either withholding their vote or voting for Stein or whatever. 01:21:06.010 --> 01:21:09.150 And, you know, look, I sympathize. 01:21:09.550 --> 01:21:13.030 Like, the situation is horrible. like we 01:21:13.030 --> 01:21:16.750 should i've i've said on this show we should be withholding military 01:21:16.750 --> 01:21:20.150 support from israel at this point but you still 01:21:20.150 --> 01:21:23.630 have two people to choose from and 01:21:23.630 --> 01:21:30.870 you and one is worse and one is worse i'm sorry i'm sorry like this whole like 01:21:30.870 --> 01:21:34.750 i don't want to pick the lesser of two evils i'm sorry if that's your choice 01:21:34.750 --> 01:21:39.190 you pick if somebody offers you yeah i'm sorry you have to vote for either Hitler 01:21:39.190 --> 01:21:41.710 or Stalin who do you want to be in charge you have you still, 01:21:43.090 --> 01:21:49.910 Jesus Christ you still have to pick like you pick which one you think will be 01:21:49.910 --> 01:21:55.110 least damaging even if they both are horrible I'm sorry that well those are pretty much. 01:21:55.110 --> 01:22:00.050 Equally bad I gotta be honest can I be honest I mean I would say that I would 01:22:00.050 --> 01:22:08.130 say more a choice between Hitler Mussolini and probably Mussolini was less worse than Hitler, 01:22:08.810 --> 01:22:12.630 because if I recall correctly, and I may be corrected the next time, 01:22:12.770 --> 01:22:17.710 but a lot of the stuff with regards to minorities and stuff and whatever, 01:22:17.890 --> 01:22:21.530 Mussolini just went along because Hitler was basically egging him on about it, 01:22:21.530 --> 01:22:24.790 not exactly because he was all jumping up and down. 01:22:24.930 --> 01:22:28.250 So headline out of this show, Ivan is a Mussolini apologist. 01:22:29.020 --> 01:22:33.700 No, you support Mussolini. You think Mussolini was great. 01:22:33.960 --> 01:22:38.660 No, all I'm saying is if my only choices were Mussolini and Hitler, 01:22:39.020 --> 01:22:41.140 I guess I'm taking fucking Mussolini. 01:22:44.160 --> 01:22:50.360 Anyway. Yeah. So we'll see. Anyway, I got to go. Yvonne has to go. 01:22:50.760 --> 01:22:55.600 The usual, the curmudgeons-corner.com. Go there for our transcripts, 01:22:55.660 --> 01:22:58.480 our archives, all the ways to contact us, blah, blah, blah. 01:22:58.480 --> 01:23:01.340 Including our patreon where you can 01:23:01.340 --> 01:23:04.240 give us money at various levels we will mention you 01:23:04.240 --> 01:23:07.040 on the show we will send you a postcard we will send you a mug all of that 01:23:07.040 --> 01:23:11.500 sort of thing all very fun stuff at two dollars a month or more or if you just 01:23:11.500 --> 01:23:16.060 ask we will invite you to our invite you to our patreon no that's wrong invite 01:23:16.060 --> 01:23:20.900 you to our slack where yvonne and i and a bunch of listeners are chatting sharing 01:23:20.900 --> 01:23:25.320 links doing all that kind of stuff all week long we would love to have more of you, 01:23:25.980 --> 01:23:28.360 Yvonne, do you have a highlight or do you just need to run? 01:23:28.680 --> 01:23:31.240 No, I need to run. I need to run. No highlight this week. 01:23:31.300 --> 01:23:36.540 No highlight this week. You need to join and then you don't need the highlights 01:23:36.540 --> 01:23:37.740 because you will have already seen them. 01:23:38.380 --> 01:23:43.080 And so for once, this actually is a short show. Amazing. 01:23:43.860 --> 01:23:49.300 But I hope you guys appreciate it. And we will come back next week with a regular show. 01:23:49.460 --> 01:23:54.520 And I think more details next week if it's true. But I think we're once again 01:23:54.520 --> 01:23:57.420 going to live stream election night as the results come in. 01:23:57.600 --> 01:23:58.060 Yeah. 01:23:58.200 --> 01:24:01.520 So we'll give you more details next week. And that's it. 01:24:01.600 --> 01:24:06.600 Hey, everybody have a great week and stay safe. We'll see you next time. 01:24:06.960 --> 01:24:08.980 Goodbye. Say goodbye, Yvonne. 01:24:09.320 --> 01:24:09.600 Bye.