WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:03.690 Hello, Yvonne. Hello. How's your doing? 00:00:04.070 --> 00:00:07.170 Oh, well, I'm home. 00:00:07.550 --> 00:00:10.470 Oh, that's good. It's been a while. 00:00:11.310 --> 00:00:11.450 Yeah. 00:00:12.550 --> 00:00:15.750 So let me boop, boop, boop. 00:00:16.450 --> 00:00:19.610 Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. Yeah, exactly. 00:00:20.910 --> 00:00:26.810 One thing is that I am trying something radically different today to connect. 00:00:26.810 --> 00:00:29.310 I actually noticed when i went 00:00:29.310 --> 00:00:35.670 to the link that it said that there is a riverside application for mac oh. 00:00:35.670 --> 00:00:37.650 There's a mac app app now okay. 00:00:37.650 --> 00:00:41.990 Yes and i saw the link and i'm like wait why the hell am i firing up a browser 00:00:41.990 --> 00:00:45.310 and doing this shit i downloaded the application and i am doing it from the 00:00:45.310 --> 00:00:48.210 application right now beautiful. 00:00:48.210 --> 00:00:51.970 That like is exciting and. 00:00:51.970 --> 00:00:53.770 Tingling what's. 00:00:53.770 --> 00:00:56.730 No i was thing exciting and new love boat. 00:00:56.730 --> 00:01:11.290 The love boat soon we'll be making another run the love boat exactly. 00:01:11.290 --> 00:01:17.830 Exactly i'm glad you sang it and not me but yeah yeah exactly shall we just jump in and go. 00:01:17.830 --> 00:01:22.970 Sure okay here we go Go. 00:01:49.730 --> 00:01:55.650 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, September 28th, 2024. 00:01:56.650 --> 00:01:59.510 I'm Sam Minter, Yvonne Boas here. Hello, Yvonne. Let's go. 00:02:00.290 --> 00:02:01.030 Let's go. 00:02:03.810 --> 00:02:07.410 There you go. So, uh, high energy. 00:02:07.490 --> 00:02:11.710 Our agenda, as usual, is we're going to have a segment where we talk about non-newsy 00:02:11.710 --> 00:02:16.470 stuff first, and then we will have a couple of segments on newsy stuff. 00:02:16.470 --> 00:02:22.970 Stuff one with stuff yvonne picks and one with stuff i pick and that's the plan that's the plan focus. 00:02:22.970 --> 00:02:24.030 For some reason. 00:02:24.030 --> 00:02:30.230 You know the the people listening to the podcast can't tell the the lot if there 00:02:30.230 --> 00:02:32.870 was a they can't i mean that would be. 00:02:32.870 --> 00:02:34.930 You know well apparently we have. 00:02:34.930 --> 00:02:38.530 People it just it just popped into focus okay there. 00:02:38.530 --> 00:02:42.190 You go yeah we have you know you're saying that but yet we've discovered that 00:02:42.190 --> 00:02:45.370 we have had people that are watching this. 00:02:45.370 --> 00:02:48.350 Yeah let me let me check the stats on 00:02:48.350 --> 00:02:51.990 our youtube channel which by the way youtube.com slash 00:02:51.990 --> 00:02:59.090 at curmudgeons hyphen corner we are we are now up to seven subscribers there 00:02:59.090 --> 00:03:04.770 you go only five of them have names that i can see because they've made their 00:03:04.770 --> 00:03:09.350 subscriptions public but that's okay that's fine and let's Let's see. 00:03:09.490 --> 00:03:15.510 Let's see what our views have looked like on recent episodes. Okay. 00:03:16.510 --> 00:03:19.470 Two million views. We're getting a check soon. 00:03:20.170 --> 00:03:26.770 Yes, that's it. No. So far on this live stream, no views. Last week's episode had one view. 00:03:26.910 --> 00:03:27.370 Well. 00:03:27.530 --> 00:03:31.930 One view. Now, of course, that only means they like looked at a couple seconds, 00:03:32.150 --> 00:03:33.990 not that they watched the whole episode. so. 00:03:33.990 --> 00:03:40.470 It doesn't necessarily mean okay well i mean you see the streaming stats i mean i don't. 00:03:40.470 --> 00:03:44.170 And then we then we had like our our august 31st 00:03:44.170 --> 00:03:47.550 show had five views okay 24th had 00:03:47.550 --> 00:03:50.470 six i can see on the dashboard by 00:03:50.470 --> 00:03:53.950 the way the uh let's now that 00:03:53.950 --> 00:03:59.710 only tells me last week which had no view that is anyway oh oh here we here 00:03:59.710 --> 00:04:11.530 we go oh oh the summary of our watch time from the last 28 days yeah yeah yeah in hours yeah 0.0 hours. 00:04:12.830 --> 00:04:13.750 We're doing great. 00:04:14.650 --> 00:04:15.590 We're doing it. 00:04:15.850 --> 00:04:19.310 Our money's going to be rolling in. I mean, we're going to be rich, 00:04:19.470 --> 00:04:23.390 Sam. We're going to be rich off of YouTube. 00:04:23.870 --> 00:04:28.070 You know, the Patreon wasn't making quite enough. So the YouTube is going to 00:04:28.070 --> 00:04:34.250 like make us billionaires because like, you know, the people are just like, they can't get enough. 00:04:34.690 --> 00:04:38.630 You know, they're going to have to just turn over their stock to us. 00:04:38.830 --> 00:04:44.010 I mean, it's just a door. yet listen you owe so much money just just look just 00:04:44.010 --> 00:04:48.170 right so you know stock used to come to these certificates you could actually 00:04:48.170 --> 00:04:54.030 endorse and give get to somebody just you know they just print the stock certificates just just you know i. 00:04:54.030 --> 00:04:56.870 Have i have a better stat. 00:04:56.870 --> 00:05:00.330 Oh oh oh oh okay i looked. 00:05:00.330 --> 00:05:07.970 It up the top content in the last 28 days the number one was the august 31st 00:05:07.970 --> 00:05:12.290 august 31st episode which which had five views, if you remember. 00:05:12.530 --> 00:05:14.930 Yeah. The average view duration. 00:05:16.010 --> 00:05:16.850 Two minutes. 00:05:17.490 --> 00:05:18.550 15 seconds. 00:05:19.230 --> 00:05:19.770 Wow. 00:05:21.830 --> 00:05:22.370 Damn. 00:05:24.430 --> 00:05:29.550 Impressive. Listen, they probably just popped in. They saw how sick I looked. 00:05:29.670 --> 00:05:32.890 And then they just said, well, we're done. 00:05:33.470 --> 00:05:34.010 Exactly. 00:05:34.290 --> 00:05:38.010 We might just get sick just by looking at them through this screen, for God's sakes. 00:05:38.750 --> 00:05:44.350 Exactly. So, you know, and I look, I do put out the little mastodon too, 00:05:44.450 --> 00:05:48.310 that says we're live, but you know, no one cares. It's okay. I mean, okay. 00:05:49.770 --> 00:05:55.290 I know the time is not, like, good for this kind of thing, you know? 00:05:55.470 --> 00:05:56.610 Oh, well. Anyway. 00:05:57.030 --> 00:05:59.130 We could be big in Japan. 00:06:00.050 --> 00:06:00.530 Yeah. 00:06:00.770 --> 00:06:01.250 Sure. 00:06:01.750 --> 00:06:05.490 Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a good time to be watched in Asia. Sure. 00:06:06.030 --> 00:06:08.510 Sure, sure. Yeah. It's ideal. 00:06:08.930 --> 00:06:14.430 Yeah. So, anyway. But first. What do you have this week, Yvonne? 00:06:14.610 --> 00:06:16.270 Something good, non-newsy? 00:06:16.710 --> 00:06:22.550 Well, I'll say about non-newsy. I mean, it's non-newsy just because it's something 00:06:22.550 --> 00:06:28.910 that, you know, I spoke about how I had that lunch last week. Two weeks. 00:06:29.910 --> 00:06:32.390 Was it? No, yes, it was last week. 00:06:32.410 --> 00:06:34.830 You mean the award thing that you got? 00:06:34.870 --> 00:06:37.610 No, the one that I was in Napa, where I had first guy. 00:06:38.110 --> 00:06:39.590 Oh, yeah, you talked about that last week. 00:06:39.590 --> 00:06:42.370 He told us a story about him just being an irresponsible idiot driving. 00:06:42.490 --> 00:06:45.790 Yes, yes. You talked about that last week. Do you have an update? 00:06:45.790 --> 00:06:48.690 That but well no no the thing is that that 00:06:48.690 --> 00:06:51.630 lunch had so many wide-ranging things and there was another one 00:06:51.630 --> 00:06:56.370 that popped up i mean that was it another stupid person well it was the same 00:06:56.370 --> 00:07:02.750 guy this guy i will say it it seemed to be kind of a dick okay and so but one 00:07:02.750 --> 00:07:07.930 of the things that and i you know probably if i gave more details people could 00:07:07.930 --> 00:07:10.930 maybe like figure out who he is so I won't. 00:07:11.150 --> 00:07:18.230 Okay, no, yeah. But one thing that we were talking at the table about a whole 00:07:18.230 --> 00:07:21.270 bunch of different things. And, you know, we were talking about. 00:07:22.480 --> 00:07:27.080 You know, that area got hit, you know, four years ago by some massive fires. 00:07:27.900 --> 00:07:32.420 Right, okay. Napa and, like, for example, the hotel where I stayed at, 00:07:32.540 --> 00:07:35.120 at least half of it was destroyed by the fire. 00:07:35.240 --> 00:07:38.760 They still have not restored that part. 00:07:38.960 --> 00:07:42.740 And as I was going through there, and we're talking about four years later, 00:07:42.820 --> 00:07:48.160 so many trees and so many things were damaged that there's still work going on. 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:51.960 I mean, we were at this minery, and you could hear trees getting chopped down. 00:07:52.480 --> 00:07:57.140 That were from the fire and how they're doing a lot of work and how honestly 00:07:57.140 --> 00:08:01.240 the damage is so extensive that it's taken years and years. 00:08:01.440 --> 00:08:06.660 I mean, they are, you know, you know, I would say they're not like paralyzed 00:08:06.660 --> 00:08:10.680 by it by any means, but there's a lot of things where, okay, 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:15.380 we cleaned up the, you did probably 80, 90% of the work, 00:08:15.520 --> 00:08:20.400 but there's still a big, big pieces that are not done. 00:08:20.400 --> 00:08:25.860 Um you know and some things that you know aren't coming back there's a there 00:08:25.860 --> 00:08:29.600 is a very big hotel near the one that we were staying called the calistoga ranch 00:08:29.600 --> 00:08:36.180 that was completely destroyed by the fire and basically the owner got paid by 00:08:36.180 --> 00:08:37.940 the insurance company and he was just like. 00:08:38.520 --> 00:08:42.600 Fuck it i'm not i'm i'm i'm taking the money and i'm not building this again 00:08:42.600 --> 00:08:45.960 you know right it it It was that extensive. 00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:52.560 And so we're talking a little bit about just the situation going on and some stuff. 00:08:52.620 --> 00:08:58.720 You know, we were talking about about this and we were talking about for some 00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:00.780 reason with natural disasters. 00:09:01.520 --> 00:09:06.260 I was mentioning that, you know, that this guy that we knew from a long time 00:09:06.260 --> 00:09:14.580 ago, he he he was he owned quite a number of the duty free stores in the Caribbean. 00:09:14.680 --> 00:09:22.080 And one time back in around the early 90s. 00:09:23.360 --> 00:09:29.180 A big part of his stores were shuttered for months because a massive hurricane hit the Virgin Islands. 00:09:30.360 --> 00:09:34.900 And one of the things that we were talking about, natural disasters and the 00:09:34.900 --> 00:09:38.400 conversation coming around with COVID and PPP funds, because people, 00:09:38.500 --> 00:09:39.520 some people are talking about that. 00:09:39.580 --> 00:09:42.540 A lot of the people there were business association taking PPP funds. 00:09:42.620 --> 00:09:43.920 We're talking about what people have done. 00:09:44.040 --> 00:09:47.300 Most of the people at the table, I will, I will say that for the most part, 00:09:47.380 --> 00:09:49.020 they did good, good use of it. 00:09:49.100 --> 00:09:52.140 And even like I mentioned that we hired more people. They said, 00:09:52.180 --> 00:09:53.740 no, yeah, we did the same and so forth. 00:09:53.840 --> 00:09:58.180 So most of the people at the table were, you know, I was like, this is good. 00:09:58.320 --> 00:10:02.220 And so I was mentioning the case of this guy back in the early 90s. 00:10:02.860 --> 00:10:08.260 And I think that he went and when all his stores got shut down by the hurricanes, 00:10:08.580 --> 00:10:10.500 instead of laying off anybody, 00:10:10.920 --> 00:10:17.940 he paid everybody their salaries for months and months and months until all the stores reopened. 00:10:18.040 --> 00:10:22.940 He did not lay off one single person. in in most of these cases that's not typical 00:10:22.940 --> 00:10:27.700 i i i can assure you that most yeah you know hotels are shut down a month late 00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:30.540 they're laying off everybody they're not paying anybody a dime. 00:10:31.560 --> 00:10:36.120 And you know it's one of those things that a few times that you had met him and this guy, 00:10:36.780 --> 00:10:42.040 i didn't realize how much money this guy had okay it's just one of those things 00:10:42.040 --> 00:10:46.580 that you You meet him and he's such, you know, he was so affable, 00:10:46.780 --> 00:10:49.580 open, helping everybody, whatever. 00:10:49.780 --> 00:10:53.060 You know, you heard about this stuff, how he went and like basically out of 00:10:53.060 --> 00:10:54.640 his pocket. He was just like, fuck this, whatever. 00:10:54.820 --> 00:10:57.900 I'm paying everybody. You know, you guys can come and help. We'll do clean up, 00:10:57.940 --> 00:10:59.360 whatever, you know, whatnot. 00:10:59.600 --> 00:11:02.660 Until we're open back. None of you guys are going to miss a paycheck. 00:11:02.820 --> 00:11:07.100 OK, I don't care. Doesn't fucking matter. OK, I'm dead. Yeah. 00:11:07.640 --> 00:11:10.820 And so we're talking about how he was and we talked about that, 00:11:10.860 --> 00:11:19.800 that kind of stuff. And so Tesla boy was complaining because he owns a Tesla boy. 00:11:19.800 --> 00:11:21.920 Being the person you talked about last week who. 00:11:21.920 --> 00:11:26.340 Like slept and yeah, who basically had an accident who put who put a weight 00:11:26.340 --> 00:11:29.720 on his car just would go to sleep to let it drive. Okay. Right. 00:11:29.820 --> 00:11:29.980 Right. 00:11:30.020 --> 00:11:35.560 He, he was complaining that he has the, 00:11:35.640 --> 00:11:42.040 he does deliveries under contract for a very large company in the Pacific Northwest 00:11:42.040 --> 00:11:48.200 that ships a lot of things by. Yes. Yeah. Ships a lot of stuff. 00:11:48.420 --> 00:11:50.480 I wonder who you could possibly be. 00:11:50.520 --> 00:11:54.140 I don't know. I don't know. You know, Costco probably. And then, yeah. 00:11:54.540 --> 00:12:00.040 And, you know, he was complaining that they had made him pay his drivers more 00:12:00.040 --> 00:12:04.940 money, you know, push it up from 20 to 22 bucks, you know, an hour. 00:12:05.180 --> 00:12:09.320 And he was bitching about it. And so a few of us at the table and actually there 00:12:09.320 --> 00:12:11.580 was there was another gentleman at the table who. 00:12:12.650 --> 00:12:15.690 How owned a massive auto dealership group 00:12:15.690 --> 00:12:18.950 in the midwest okay and he 00:12:18.950 --> 00:12:21.630 was like he was almost like we looked at 00:12:21.630 --> 00:12:25.050 him and said dude how much you think a fucking employee costs what 00:12:25.050 --> 00:12:28.390 the hell how much do you want to pay him what what do 00:12:28.390 --> 00:12:31.250 you think what are you gonna they're gonna pay their living expenses 00:12:31.250 --> 00:12:34.330 with what like 10 bucks an hour nobody can afford you 00:12:34.330 --> 00:12:37.270 know nobody can afford a damn thing you know right out 00:12:37.270 --> 00:12:40.230 of that out of that money but it was just the the the 00:12:40.230 --> 00:12:43.770 damn attitude of you 00:12:43.770 --> 00:12:46.650 know hey you're in a major metro with 00:12:46.650 --> 00:12:52.510 very high costs and you think that you can get away with paying full-time people 00:12:52.510 --> 00:12:59.270 like you know 10 11 bucks an hour and then oh by the way expect them not to 00:12:59.270 --> 00:13:03.590 steal packages and do stuff or whatever you're paying them like you know wages 00:13:03.590 --> 00:13:05.070 that they can't afford anything, 00:13:05.410 --> 00:13:10.250 you know, it's just preposterous, you know, but, but obviously there, 00:13:10.370 --> 00:13:14.430 you know, that is an attitude that thankfully at the table, most people were 00:13:14.430 --> 00:13:17.810 like, they looked at him, they were like, dude, what planet are you living on, 00:13:17.870 --> 00:13:19.850 man? Nobody can afford anything on 10 bucks an hour. 00:13:20.110 --> 00:13:24.370 And somebody had posted a sign because I've seen this already. 00:13:24.990 --> 00:13:29.970 Multiple people like complain, oh, we can't, we can't find workers. 00:13:30.130 --> 00:13:35.230 We can't find workers. We are short on workers. And then you look at the wages 00:13:35.230 --> 00:13:37.310 that they're trying to pay, but they're trying to pay. 00:13:37.450 --> 00:13:43.090 And you're like, dude, seriously? I mean, yeah, you're not going to get anybody, you know, at that rate. 00:13:43.150 --> 00:13:48.610 I mean, I talked about how, you know, what a higher maintenance guy like right now. 00:13:48.690 --> 00:13:52.250 Basically, that's what the goal and rate is north of 20 bucks an hour. 00:13:52.310 --> 00:13:56.670 Any damn job, you know, for the most part, you want to get somebody, you know. 00:13:57.330 --> 00:14:02.350 I mean, if you're not paying at least 20 bucks an hour, it really, you know, it's not. 00:14:02.970 --> 00:14:06.310 Financially affordable for these people to work. 00:14:06.310 --> 00:14:09.170 Now this does vary by part of 00:14:09.170 --> 00:14:12.230 the country but yes in general like the what people have 00:14:12.230 --> 00:14:19.290 expected in previous decades is just no longer relevant to the no any anywhere 00:14:19.290 --> 00:14:22.830 in the country now certain certain parts of the country are more expensive than 00:14:22.830 --> 00:14:28.130 others for sure but but still like what what what's the national minimum wage 00:14:28.130 --> 00:14:29.790 is still like Like $750 or something? 00:14:29.870 --> 00:14:30.530 Yes, yes. 00:14:30.870 --> 00:14:31.570 It's like... 00:14:31.570 --> 00:14:38.030 But nobody gets paid $750. It's ridiculous. I mean, I've seen... 00:14:39.030 --> 00:14:44.610 The base wages that I see people get paid right now are... I mean, 00:14:44.650 --> 00:14:47.710 they start... They're north of $10 an hour, okay? 00:14:48.790 --> 00:14:53.990 But it's just the entitled attitude is the thing. You know? Right. 00:14:54.950 --> 00:14:58.870 I just... It's just... from these people. It's just always aggravating. 00:14:58.930 --> 00:15:05.270 But what I will say is that I happen to be with a number of other business owners and people that. 00:15:06.310 --> 00:15:11.330 You know, pretty, you know, with big businesses that they were looking at. 00:15:11.970 --> 00:15:14.630 Thankfully, like most people at the table were looking at it. 00:15:14.650 --> 00:15:16.690 I was like, dude, you're nuts, you know? 00:15:16.910 --> 00:15:20.510 And so I felt relieved that it's not just me that thinks that, 00:15:20.530 --> 00:15:22.610 you know, why does it think this is nuts? 00:15:22.750 --> 00:15:27.050 It's like, you know, it's thankfully the generalized attitude is like, 00:15:27.070 --> 00:15:29.110 oh, dude, you got to pay people. 00:15:29.770 --> 00:15:32.590 So and so i i do think that 00:15:32.590 --> 00:15:35.550 that i i i was just i realized 00:15:35.550 --> 00:15:38.390 that i was like damn it you know you you you tend to hear more of 00:15:38.390 --> 00:15:41.250 the complaining but i realized that it was a business table with about one 00:15:41.250 --> 00:15:44.130 two three four you know we're about 00:15:44.130 --> 00:15:47.070 five business people and basically four the consensus like 80 00:15:47.070 --> 00:15:50.270 was like you know that that you know 00:15:50.270 --> 00:15:52.970 we were right that you know yeah you you can't be 00:15:52.970 --> 00:15:55.630 thinking of paying people 12 bucks an hour and 00:15:55.630 --> 00:15:59.310 expecting to get you know top-notch workers 00:15:59.310 --> 00:16:02.430 i i still will never forget i mean 00:16:02.430 --> 00:16:08.450 this is something that some guy at hp that i i will say that i had it's a conundrum 00:16:08.450 --> 00:16:14.110 to me because i had issues with him but i found out very much that he deeply 00:16:14.110 --> 00:16:17.670 respected my work okay and i i 00:16:17.670 --> 00:16:21.310 didn't think that he did but i i found out later holy shit that he He did. 00:16:21.430 --> 00:16:25.410 And I was just, it's one of those things where it's one of the last people I 00:16:25.410 --> 00:16:27.970 expected to, to, to do so. 00:16:28.070 --> 00:16:33.770 And, but one time he made this statement that I was just, my God, 00:16:33.850 --> 00:16:36.130 this is just the worst statement I've ever heard. 00:16:36.190 --> 00:16:40.930 He flat out went and said, in a meeting with a lot of people, 00:16:40.990 --> 00:16:45.530 we want to hire the best talent at the lowest possible wages. 00:16:46.110 --> 00:16:49.930 And I was just like, what? Come again? end. 00:16:50.740 --> 00:16:55.800 Well, yes. I mean, obviously you're not going to get the best at the lowest, 00:16:55.820 --> 00:16:59.240 but presumably it is, it is something competitive. 00:16:59.680 --> 00:17:02.020 Well, right. But presumably what you want to. 00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:02.660 Right. 00:17:03.680 --> 00:17:09.180 But presumably what you're talking about is you want to optimize to get the, 00:17:09.220 --> 00:17:12.460 the, the, the peak of that curve, right? 00:17:12.540 --> 00:17:18.760 Where you're sort of your employee goodness per dollar is maximized. 00:17:18.760 --> 00:17:24.220 You know, I will say that it's just that my philosophy with hiring people was very different. 00:17:24.340 --> 00:17:31.000 OK, I honestly, I went out and I set out to hire the best damn people I could find. 00:17:31.180 --> 00:17:34.540 And I would set out to pay them more than average. 00:17:34.840 --> 00:17:38.820 But the reality is that I usually wound up with less people on the team because 00:17:38.820 --> 00:17:44.560 I didn't believe that quantity of employees, you know, generally was a way to be productive. 00:17:44.560 --> 00:17:53.640 I figured, you know what, you give me six top guns instead of 15 average kind of people. 00:17:54.100 --> 00:18:00.100 Well, presumably this varies greatly based on the job, right? 00:18:00.340 --> 00:18:04.620 I know, I know. Look, financial analysts. 00:18:05.440 --> 00:18:10.900 Look, you want to hire some person that, I mean, basically struggles with, 00:18:11.020 --> 00:18:14.760 because I've seen these in finance. Oh, yeah, he's got a degree, whatever. 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:15.880 But but what? 00:18:15.880 --> 00:18:19.820 But somebody else takes an hour because they are whatever. It takes this guy 00:18:19.820 --> 00:18:23.000 two days. What's the point of that? No, but no. 00:18:23.060 --> 00:18:25.480 But like your cashier at McDonald's. 00:18:26.260 --> 00:18:27.220 Well, you know, I mean. 00:18:27.220 --> 00:18:31.480 It depends on the different kind of thing, but that's what I said. No, no, no, no. 00:18:31.800 --> 00:18:35.440 Not even at that. Look, let me tell you something. Same thing applies to the retail. 00:18:36.700 --> 00:18:39.860 Look, because one of the things that I that we did with what I had, 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:43.240 like the better cashiers or the better people like at the store, 00:18:43.300 --> 00:18:46.560 you know what? They could multitask and do some other shit. 00:18:46.880 --> 00:18:51.220 OK, yeah, yeah. And so the thing is that I'm like, yeah, they could be OK. 00:18:51.300 --> 00:18:56.100 I use them at the cashier. But all of a sudden a vendor came in and they need to deal with them. 00:18:56.260 --> 00:19:02.140 If I hired the, you know, the person that didn't have the capacity to do that, they could deal with it. 00:19:02.180 --> 00:19:06.160 This guy could say, hey, I'm attending the cashier at a low point. 00:19:06.220 --> 00:19:08.020 The vendor comes in. I can check the order. 00:19:08.140 --> 00:19:11.220 I can sign it off. They can deliver it. And I can trust that person to do it. 00:19:11.260 --> 00:19:12.100 And we're not going to get screwed. 00:19:12.500 --> 00:19:17.900 The bottom line, especially these days, is the kind of roles where you really 00:19:17.900 --> 00:19:20.080 say, like, it's completely interchangeable. 00:19:20.100 --> 00:19:23.540 It's a brainless job are the ones that are all getting automated anyway. 00:19:23.540 --> 00:19:26.420 But even though you know my whole 00:19:26.420 --> 00:19:29.840 point is that you know what you're better 00:19:29.840 --> 00:19:33.040 off getting the better talent 00:19:33.040 --> 00:19:35.840 and paying them more because a lot 00:19:35.840 --> 00:19:40.780 of people are just like ah we'll hire volume oh so we have 200 annual turnover 00:19:40.780 --> 00:19:45.880 shit you're just hiring you know you're paying shit and you're hiring bottom 00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:50.820 of the barrel they're all turning over the trainings you know you're burning 00:19:50.820 --> 00:19:54.240 so much money training and recycling people I remember. 00:19:54.960 --> 00:20:02.780 I remember a couple of years reading about, well, I think it was about one specific 00:20:02.780 --> 00:20:04.940 company, but it has occurred to more than one. 00:20:04.940 --> 00:20:10.940 Where basically because they were doing what you were saying and just rotating 00:20:10.940 --> 00:20:13.400 through people at the lowest volumes, 00:20:13.700 --> 00:20:19.980 they, they were starting to have problems because there were very few people 00:20:19.980 --> 00:20:26.280 left that they hadn't already hired and gotten rid of within their areas that 00:20:26.280 --> 00:20:27.100 they were trying to hide. 00:20:27.120 --> 00:20:29.940 Right. You know, and so exactly. 00:20:32.940 --> 00:20:36.020 I mean, there's always more people, but But there's only a certain number that 00:20:36.020 --> 00:20:39.560 are within the geographic area you're looking for and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:20:39.740 --> 00:20:43.660 And they were just having trouble because it was like, oh, yeah, we are. 00:20:43.940 --> 00:20:45.940 You are already here and gone. 00:20:47.420 --> 00:20:49.040 And yeah, so, yeah. 00:20:49.140 --> 00:20:54.100 I saw this at the damn copier business. OK, look, when I when I worked at Rico, 00:20:54.260 --> 00:20:59.080 dude, I mean, they there are places that had turnover that was like 400 percent, 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:00.740 500 percent annual turnover. 00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:03.920 You understand this, right? Right. They they basically I mean, 00:21:03.940 --> 00:21:07.500 500 percent turnover, Sam. That means there was a team of 40 people. 00:21:07.840 --> 00:21:12.640 And basically to keep that team staffed, they basically went through 200 people 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:14.940 in the whole fucking year. OK, right. 00:21:15.160 --> 00:21:17.080 It's nuts. OK. 00:21:17.480 --> 00:21:21.580 And yeah. And they got to a point that all of a sudden next year. Right. 00:21:21.960 --> 00:21:25.220 They'd already gone through all the fucking copier sales, but already a couple 00:21:25.220 --> 00:21:29.900 of times. All of a sudden, this asshole, they already had fired because he sucked. 00:21:30.020 --> 00:21:33.180 All of a sudden, he's being recycled through the damn thing because they couldn't 00:21:33.180 --> 00:21:35.780 find anybody else who was interested in selling fucking copiers. 00:21:36.740 --> 00:21:37.220 Right. 00:21:37.600 --> 00:21:42.340 So, yeah, I just, no. It's a dumb strategy. 00:21:42.900 --> 00:21:48.960 I just think that you get, I think that when you make those teams that are better, 00:21:49.100 --> 00:21:50.560 the people are also better. 00:21:51.530 --> 00:21:55.490 They're more motivated. They're, they're more, you know, I mean, 00:21:55.550 --> 00:22:00.010 you know, having that kind of turnover gets, gets the moralizing after a certain 00:22:00.010 --> 00:22:02.750 point when you're, you know, when, when you're on a team and all of a sudden 00:22:02.750 --> 00:22:04.850 by in six months, you don't know anybody who was already there. 00:22:05.390 --> 00:22:09.310 Yeah. Well, and like you said, too, below a certain level, it's just like, 00:22:09.310 --> 00:22:15.110 you're not going to get anyone anyway, because no one can live off it. 00:22:15.130 --> 00:22:18.870 It's not worth the amount of time. Like sometimes you're not even paying them 00:22:18.870 --> 00:22:23.210 enough to pay for the cost of getting back and forth to work. 00:22:23.290 --> 00:22:28.010 Yeah. I mean, that was literally a problem. That was literally a fucking problem. Yes. 00:22:28.210 --> 00:22:34.010 And so you have to adjust. 00:22:34.270 --> 00:22:38.250 I mean, and, you know, minimum wage conversations aside at this point, 00:22:38.330 --> 00:22:41.770 because we haven't raised the minimum wage, the market is taking care of it. 00:22:41.770 --> 00:22:44.830 Oh, yeah, the market's taking care of it because it's ridiculous because it's 00:22:44.830 --> 00:22:48.690 just – I mean the minimum wage is just not possible. 00:22:49.270 --> 00:22:58.190 But even there, you do have – if you had like a set minimum wage that was thought about more, 00:22:58.310 --> 00:23:01.670 it might be a little bit higher than the going rates because you still sort 00:23:01.670 --> 00:23:06.590 of have a little bit of – for these employers who aren't thinking the way you're 00:23:06.590 --> 00:23:09.730 talking about and are just like, let's get the cheapest we can possibly get. 00:23:09.730 --> 00:23:12.830 Well, they're trying to pay $11.12 an hour and they're like. 00:23:12.870 --> 00:23:17.010 There's always sort of a race to the bottom where there's, yes, 00:23:17.230 --> 00:23:22.050 at a certain point you won't get anybody, but you can get pretty low and still 00:23:22.050 --> 00:23:26.390 get sort of the most desperate of the desperate, you know, and, 00:23:26.570 --> 00:23:28.910 and that's not serving anyone well. 00:23:29.290 --> 00:23:33.870 No, it's not. So, so anyway, so I, I just, you know, it was just, 00:23:33.910 --> 00:23:40.350 I realized that that for whatever reason that that, uh, the conversations that that table got pretty. 00:23:41.470 --> 00:23:45.510 We talked a wide range of things. It was just, I didn't expect that. 00:23:45.630 --> 00:23:48.890 I mean, you get set to sit at the table, you get assigned with people. 00:23:48.910 --> 00:23:52.890 And I, I did have my brother and my, my, my, and my sister-in-law at the table, 00:23:52.930 --> 00:23:56.250 but you get assigned like 10, 12 random people. 00:23:56.290 --> 00:23:59.650 And you, you're like, you know, you don't know what the heck you're going to find out. 00:23:59.710 --> 00:24:03.110 I mean, I found, I sat down with this other guy who I did have a lot, 00:24:03.150 --> 00:24:06.790 a lot of, a lot of fun with who, you know, confessed that he was there separated 00:24:06.790 --> 00:24:09.050 and he was like going on his fourth divorce. And I was like, 00:24:09.090 --> 00:24:10.750 Oh shit, your fourth divorce. 00:24:11.470 --> 00:24:15.050 Son of a bitch and then you know he was pretty drunk when he told me the next 00:24:15.050 --> 00:24:21.170 day we were making fun of him like shit i told you that yes you did so we had 00:24:21.170 --> 00:24:23.630 a lot yeah we but but i i will say that, 00:24:24.830 --> 00:24:27.570 being i was forced a little bit to 00:24:27.570 --> 00:24:30.590 like interact with people that i that i don't 00:24:30.590 --> 00:24:33.450 know which that is always harder i mean i'm good like a 00:24:33.450 --> 00:24:36.250 lot with people i know but i mean i i will 00:24:36.250 --> 00:24:38.930 admit that with with new people it's a little bit of a thing but i actually 00:24:38.930 --> 00:24:44.450 had a great time excellent so so there you go all right so sam what are we movie 00:24:44.450 --> 00:24:52.690 book book yeah and and also i will say not an audiobook a real book with you 00:24:52.690 --> 00:24:55.050 know like well or at least in digital form. 00:24:55.050 --> 00:24:57.650 Yeah this one i read on a kindle. 00:24:57.650 --> 00:24:59.450 Okay all right but. 00:24:59.450 --> 00:25:04.350 I i do i do just say it's a book when i finish an audiobook i i mean i don't. 00:25:04.350 --> 00:25:08.850 Well, no, no, no, they're books. I just, just checking which, which format is it in? 00:25:09.030 --> 00:25:13.330 This was a digital ebook on a Kindle. 00:25:13.430 --> 00:25:13.910 Okay. 00:25:14.450 --> 00:25:20.850 And before I get into the book itself, I will say also, this is the last item 00:25:20.850 --> 00:25:24.290 I actually have on my backlog of media right now. 00:25:24.510 --> 00:25:27.890 Now that does not mean it's the last thing I've watched or read. 00:25:28.010 --> 00:25:32.010 Cause see what I do is like every two to three months. Okay, 00:25:32.110 --> 00:25:34.810 like, first of all, when I finish something, when I watch a movie, 00:25:34.930 --> 00:25:40.270 when I finish a TV show, when I finish a book, I take a screenshot on my phone. 00:25:41.080 --> 00:25:44.620 To commemorate the fact that I have finished the thing. 00:25:44.840 --> 00:25:50.760 And then once every two to three months, I go through all the screenshots and 00:25:50.760 --> 00:25:57.200 log them onto my wiki page and onto the backlog for curmudgeons corner. 00:25:57.380 --> 00:26:05.000 So at the moment it has been, let's see, I've got, uh, let's see, log. 00:26:05.880 --> 00:26:09.480 It has been 18 weeks, five days and 22 hours. 00:26:09.480 --> 00:26:12.700 Since the last time i did that okay so so 00:26:12.700 --> 00:26:15.920 anything that i have finished in the last 18 weeks 00:26:15.920 --> 00:26:19.160 isn't yet on my backlog list for curmudgeon's 00:26:19.160 --> 00:26:21.980 corner so like i don't off the top of 00:26:21.980 --> 00:26:26.540 my head know what's next after this book eventually i 00:26:26.540 --> 00:26:29.160 will go through and do this and the 00:26:29.160 --> 00:26:32.140 problem is when it gets to 18 weeks like the 00:26:32.140 --> 00:26:35.000 way i do this like okay my 00:26:35.000 --> 00:26:38.300 phone has lots and 00:26:38.300 --> 00:26:41.960 lots and lots and lots of images 00:26:41.960 --> 00:26:49.260 and things of various sorts on it including my son alex likes to take the phone 00:26:49.260 --> 00:26:54.160 and then just do like dozens of pictures of things he's eating and random crap 00:26:54.160 --> 00:26:58.300 like that with your phone not not his He'll do it with his phone, 00:26:58.380 --> 00:27:00.140 too. But if his phone isn't handy, he'll grab mine. 00:27:01.040 --> 00:27:01.680 Oh, God. 00:27:02.730 --> 00:27:08.150 Okay. I, I, one of the reasons he has his own phone is so that he can do this 00:27:08.150 --> 00:27:12.010 stuff on his phone and not clog up my phone with these images. 00:27:12.130 --> 00:27:12.990 I get that. 00:27:13.250 --> 00:27:16.770 Of course I, I, I, and I never delete anything. So they're all there. 00:27:16.850 --> 00:27:21.190 So like, I literally, when I go through this process, I'm opening up my photos 00:27:21.190 --> 00:27:25.990 app and going back one picture at a time and saying, is this a screenshot of 00:27:25.990 --> 00:27:27.270 something I read or watched? 00:27:27.510 --> 00:27:32.430 And so like, I have to go back through like 10 or 15,000. 00:27:32.430 --> 00:27:37.890 Pictures. Yeah, so, okay, I'm sorry, but so you don't know that the phone automatically 00:27:37.890 --> 00:27:39.730 creates a folder with your screenshots. 00:27:39.830 --> 00:27:44.610 Right? Well, they're not all actually screenshots. Like, if something comes 00:27:44.610 --> 00:27:49.630 on TV, because there are two things I do here. Okay, no, no, no. 00:27:49.630 --> 00:27:51.610 This is screenshots first. I'm just playing. 00:27:51.610 --> 00:27:55.050 Yeah, no, you're right. I said screenshots. screenshots generally speaking when 00:27:55.050 --> 00:27:58.530 i finish something it is a screenshot but i combine this process 00:27:58.530 --> 00:28:01.850 with the algorithm i use to add additional 00:28:01.850 --> 00:28:05.410 things to my list ai so for 00:28:05.410 --> 00:28:12.690 instance we need ai for sam sam it's ai yeah just just for example like if if 00:28:12.690 --> 00:28:18.050 i see an article well articles can sometimes be screenshots so let's if i see 00:28:18.050 --> 00:28:21.890 something on tv where like yeah they're interviewing 00:28:21.990 --> 00:28:25.290 an author of a book and I'm like, oh, okay, that sounds interesting. 00:28:25.670 --> 00:28:29.090 I will point my phone at the screen and take a picture of it. 00:28:29.630 --> 00:28:30.090 Okay. 00:28:30.250 --> 00:28:35.570 And so then, so as I'm going back through this list, it's like only a very, 00:28:35.690 --> 00:28:40.130 very small fraction of what I'm logging are things I've actually completed. 00:28:40.730 --> 00:28:45.550 Most of it is books or movies or TV shows that I'm like, oh, 00:28:45.590 --> 00:28:47.810 that's interesting. I will add it to my list. 00:28:48.470 --> 00:28:48.930 Okay. 00:28:49.250 --> 00:28:51.770 Does it, does it, does that make sense now? know. 00:28:51.770 --> 00:28:52.610 Uh yes it does. 00:28:52.610 --> 00:28:58.250 I mean i know i'm insane but like well you understand but you know yes and for 00:28:58.250 --> 00:29:02.570 the for those of you who aren't on video yvonne is playing with the the ios 00:29:02.570 --> 00:29:07.090 slash mac auto reactions we're like what are you talking about i. 00:29:07.090 --> 00:29:10.970 I wonder what i mean me i'm not i'm not doing anything i don't know what's going on over. 00:29:10.970 --> 00:29:15.310 Yeah yeah so so like on the video there's like balloons and thumbs up icons 00:29:15.310 --> 00:29:18.390 and all this kind of stuff i mean i don't know what you're Yes. 00:29:18.890 --> 00:29:21.690 I don't know what you're talking about. I mean, anyway, anyway. 00:29:21.830 --> 00:29:28.150 So anyway, with all of those preliminaries out of the way, the book of the week 00:29:28.150 --> 00:29:34.490 that I finished in May is Big Data from 2013. 00:29:35.350 --> 00:29:38.390 Big Data. Or 2014. 00:29:39.470 --> 00:29:47.450 Okay, so the author of this, let me bring it back up. I had the stupid web page up a second ago. 00:29:48.450 --> 00:29:57.250 Oh, here we go. It is by Victor Meyer Schoenberger and Kenneth Kukier. 00:29:58.520 --> 00:30:01.260 Okay never heard of these people so what okay question. 00:30:01.260 --> 00:30:04.640 So this was this why why did you wind. 00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:05.560 Up reading this book. 00:30:05.560 --> 00:30:13.420 Oh i don't know i like sometime many decades ago like i i saw it and was like many decades. 00:30:13.420 --> 00:30:16.580 Ago it was only 11 years ago so that book came out. 00:30:16.580 --> 00:30:23.240 Okay i will i will tell you exactly it was added to my list on april 24th 2013 okay. 00:30:23.240 --> 00:30:25.580 So yeah uh when was the book written. 00:30:25.580 --> 00:30:32.180 And and actually the i i have a note here uh-huh it was added to my list because 00:30:32.180 --> 00:30:34.320 i saw some random person on twitter mention it. 00:30:34.320 --> 00:30:36.720 Okay there you go all right so that was it okay. 00:30:36.720 --> 00:30:42.200 But but actually i remember at the time this book was kind of like lots of people 00:30:42.200 --> 00:30:45.260 were sort of talking about it and stuff um i kind. 00:30:45.260 --> 00:30:47.900 Of remember having heard it being mentioned yeah. 00:30:47.900 --> 00:30:53.020 So now normally when i do these things like if it's a movie i'll bring up the 00:30:53.020 --> 00:30:56.260 wikipedia page and i'll read the quick summary of it and then talk about it. 00:30:56.360 --> 00:31:04.520 There was no Wikipedia page for this book and the sort of Amazon listing was sort of like lame. 00:31:04.780 --> 00:31:11.820 So I have, as you just suggested a few minutes ago that I asked chat GPT to 00:31:11.820 --> 00:31:14.080 give me a two paragraph summary of this book. 00:31:14.200 --> 00:31:14.640 Wow. 00:31:15.100 --> 00:31:19.600 So I'm going to read that to you and then I will discuss my thoughts on this book. 00:31:19.760 --> 00:31:20.800 Okay. All right. 00:31:21.440 --> 00:31:27.480 Can I make these bigger? Okay. Big data, a revolution that will transform how 00:31:27.480 --> 00:31:33.120 we live, work, and think it, you know, it's both Amazon and this say it was 00:31:33.120 --> 00:31:35.660 2014, but I had a 2013 date. 00:31:35.740 --> 00:31:39.460 I don't know. Maybe it is the difference between paperback and hardcover, 00:31:39.700 --> 00:31:43.420 or maybe I put it on my list in 2013, but it wasn't actually out till two, 00:31:43.500 --> 00:31:44.600 whatever. It doesn't matter. 00:31:45.480 --> 00:31:50.100 Anyway, by, by Victor Meyer Schoenberger and Kenneth Kukier, 00:31:50.220 --> 00:31:55.240 explores the profound shift brought about by the emergence of big data, 00:31:55.940 --> 00:31:59.500 analyzing vast amounts of information to uncover patterns and insights that 00:31:59.500 --> 00:32:00.960 were previously undetectable. 00:32:01.120 --> 00:32:06.160 The authors argue that the rise of big data is changing the way businesses, 00:32:06.440 --> 00:32:11.140 governments, and individuals make decisions, moving away from traditional small-scale 00:32:11.140 --> 00:32:15.080 analysis to focus on correlations within massive data sets. 00:32:15.400 --> 00:32:21.180 This approach allows for new predictive capabilities, even if it sometimes sacrifices 00:32:21.180 --> 00:32:24.700 understanding the why behind certain phenomena. 00:32:25.040 --> 00:32:28.800 By leveraging big data, organizations can optimize operations, 00:32:29.280 --> 00:32:34.520 forecast trends, and create more personalized services, ultimately reshaping industries. 00:32:35.100 --> 00:32:38.400 However, the book also warns of the 00:32:38.400 --> 00:32:42.820 potential risks and ethical challenges associated with big data. Big data. 00:32:43.140 --> 00:32:46.820 Meyer Schoenberger and Kukier. I don't know if I'm pronouncing that right. 00:32:47.360 --> 00:32:50.020 Kukier. Whatever. Cookie Monster. 00:32:50.260 --> 00:32:51.000 Yeah. Okay. Whatever. 00:32:51.140 --> 00:32:56.340 C-U-K-I-E-R. I don't know if I'm pronouncing Schoenberger either correctly. 00:32:57.870 --> 00:33:03.150 S-C-H, the O with the little dots over it, N-B-E-R-G-E-R. 00:33:03.630 --> 00:33:04.730 Sounds good to me. 00:33:04.930 --> 00:33:10.690 So discuss issues like privacy erosion, data ownership, and the danger of blindly 00:33:10.690 --> 00:33:13.410 trusting algorithms without human oversight. 00:33:14.190 --> 00:33:15.550 Gee, I don't know. 00:33:19.070 --> 00:33:22.110 Yeah. It's amazing. 00:33:22.770 --> 00:33:27.690 Wonder what? They stress the importance of developing legal and regulatory frameworks 00:33:27.690 --> 00:33:30.690 to manage these risks while encouraging innovation. 00:33:30.970 --> 00:33:35.290 Despite the challenges, the authors believe that big data holds immense potential 00:33:35.290 --> 00:33:39.570 to revolutionize society, though it must be approached with caution to avoid 00:33:39.570 --> 00:33:41.390 unintended negative consequences. 00:33:42.010 --> 00:33:49.610 Now, that's the summary. This was from 2014. Obviously, things have moved quite a bit since 2014. 00:33:50.830 --> 00:33:54.410 I'll say, actually, it mentions that they talk about the risks. 00:33:54.710 --> 00:34:01.030 I actually like got the feeling while reading this that the section about risks 00:34:01.030 --> 00:34:04.070 was sort of thrown in like, oh, we got to talk about the risks, 00:34:04.110 --> 00:34:05.530 but it was mostly cheerleading. 00:34:05.770 --> 00:34:09.250 You know, it was mostly like, hey, this is going to be awesome. 00:34:09.410 --> 00:34:12.570 We can do all this stuff. And they were talking about all kinds of examples 00:34:12.570 --> 00:34:13.990 that were already at play. 00:34:14.550 --> 00:34:20.890 And while they did talk about risks, I feel like they, they sort of hand waved 00:34:20.890 --> 00:34:23.310 away the risks saying, oh yeah, but we can deal with those. 00:34:23.730 --> 00:34:27.750 And I think that there are a lot of places, 00:34:27.990 --> 00:34:31.150 even before we talk about AI, which obviously this gets into, 00:34:31.310 --> 00:34:38.890 but even before you get to that, there are so many places where they were saying 00:34:38.890 --> 00:34:43.750 things like, look, we don't have to worry about every example being correct. 00:34:43.870 --> 00:34:48.770 We just have to, on average, do a good job with all of this data and have it 00:34:48.770 --> 00:34:52.690 be, And often we can get better results than looking at all the stuff individually 00:34:52.690 --> 00:34:57.290 because you just like doing sort of statistical sampling. 00:34:57.410 --> 00:35:02.790 One of the primary themes of the book is like, you know, in the past you looked 00:35:02.790 --> 00:35:06.590 at individual examples and you did statistical sampling and you did detailed 00:35:06.590 --> 00:35:10.090 analysis of the statistics and you came up with conclusions. 00:35:10.530 --> 00:35:15.390 And they're like in the big data world, you don't have to do that sampling. 00:35:15.710 --> 00:35:18.090 You can actually look at everything. 00:35:18.750 --> 00:35:25.210 You don't have to sample. You just look at all the data and make some conclusions based on it. 00:35:25.790 --> 00:35:29.990 And then often this data is very noisy. 00:35:30.150 --> 00:35:35.530 It's often dirty data where some of it's incomplete or you don't have it. 00:35:35.570 --> 00:35:41.650 But it's still the sheer volume of it often makes it better than your sampling anyway. 00:35:42.710 --> 00:35:46.650 I actually saw it like, we'll undoubtedly talk about election polls later. 00:35:46.650 --> 00:35:52.670 I actually saw someone, an article, man, I only scanned it. 00:35:52.730 --> 00:35:56.030 I didn't read the summary and I didn't share it. So I'm not going to be able to find it. 00:35:56.170 --> 00:36:00.450 But there's a new firm that's trying to do election forecasting. 00:36:00.570 --> 00:36:11.010 And apparently they've gotten some elections already correct with accuracy unknown in the polling world. 00:36:11.470 --> 00:36:15.310 They forecast an election and gotten it right within a couple hundred votes. 00:36:15.310 --> 00:36:23.630 Like not just, and their methodology rather than polling people is just take the census data, 00:36:23.830 --> 00:36:30.690 model little AI agents for every person in the, in the census based on everything 00:36:30.690 --> 00:36:33.750 they can find out about that person, their demographics, 00:36:34.070 --> 00:36:36.510 their family, all of this information. 00:36:36.690 --> 00:36:41.750 And they make a little AI agent that tries to simulate being that person and 00:36:41.750 --> 00:36:45.070 predict how they're going to vote and whether they'll vote. 00:36:45.310 --> 00:36:48.770 And whether they'll vote, because that's one of the most important things, right? 00:36:48.950 --> 00:36:51.710 Yes, whether they'll vote and if they vote, who they'll vote for. 00:36:51.790 --> 00:36:56.270 And apparently they've gotten some insane accuracy in some cases. 00:36:56.470 --> 00:36:58.690 And so this is an example of that kind of thing. 00:36:59.070 --> 00:37:02.870 But basically the idea is just look at everything. We've got the data now. 00:37:02.950 --> 00:37:04.730 You can just look at everything. 00:37:05.090 --> 00:37:07.530 Forget sampling and looking at this stuff. 00:37:07.790 --> 00:37:13.890 I mean, this is something that's been going on in a whole bunch of different industries where... 00:37:14.890 --> 00:37:19.270 You've got so much more data from different sources now that you can, 00:37:19.450 --> 00:37:25.530 that it's, and it's not about, you know, correlation is not causation, okay? 00:37:25.630 --> 00:37:31.070 Right, but one of the main arguments that this book made was correlation is 00:37:31.070 --> 00:37:33.090 not causation, but it doesn't matter. 00:37:33.310 --> 00:37:35.310 You can make decisions based on the correlation. 00:37:35.690 --> 00:37:40.310 No, but the thing is that it's not, it's not, to me, it's not so much about correlation. 00:37:40.310 --> 00:37:48.090 I think that the thing is about how you are able to synthesize a number of data 00:37:48.090 --> 00:37:54.830 points across from different sources and to understand what is happening a certain point in time. 00:37:55.330 --> 00:37:59.250 So, you know, for example, I was reading about retail patterns. 00:37:59.550 --> 00:38:04.470 Right. And so, you know, you correlate weather, you correlate temperature, 00:38:04.710 --> 00:38:09.470 you correlate how many people are coming in, what areas they are buying. 00:38:09.470 --> 00:38:12.390 The demographics of that person and you correlate those a 00:38:12.390 --> 00:38:16.330 certain time and and and there is a whole bunch of data that then allows you 00:38:16.330 --> 00:38:20.910 to predict what purchase patterns are going to happen on certain days and why 00:38:20.910 --> 00:38:25.810 and what and what products are going to sell more and which less man same thing 00:38:25.810 --> 00:38:30.630 i mentioned this airlines for example that one of the oh yeah. 00:38:30.630 --> 00:38:33.990 They they had a bunch of airline examples in this book they had a whole bunch 00:38:33.990 --> 00:38:40.290 other but like what one of the key elements in that is is the prediction doesn't have to be exact. 00:38:40.670 --> 00:38:44.190 Like you don't, like you can say that this thing is going to be, 00:38:44.210 --> 00:38:47.490 you know, rising and that you can take action on that. 00:38:47.690 --> 00:38:50.410 And it can be a probabilistic forecast. 00:38:50.910 --> 00:38:55.090 And that is still something that's actionable. Yeah, and you can get out of 00:38:55.090 --> 00:38:57.810 all this data. And so, I mean. 00:38:57.830 --> 00:39:01.330 But there are things that correlate that do have effects. So don't get me wrong. 00:39:01.370 --> 00:39:05.090 It's not that. It's just that you can't automatically assume that you have to like, 00:39:06.020 --> 00:39:09.940 Go and double check that, you know, that, that, that the relationship is, 00:39:09.940 --> 00:39:13.160 there is a causal relationship and, you know, that, that. 00:39:13.220 --> 00:39:18.660 That happens, but it's. But again, one of the, one of the things in this book 00:39:18.660 --> 00:39:23.460 that they tried to argue, and I, I'm not sure I 100% buy it. 00:39:23.520 --> 00:39:28.140 I found myself a lot of times saying, come on guys, is that basically they were 00:39:28.140 --> 00:39:33.020 saying, look, proving causation is just too damn hard. 00:39:33.020 --> 00:39:38.300 So don't even try if you've got the correlation go on it no no that's bullshit 00:39:38.300 --> 00:39:42.420 no no that that's ridiculous and it's not that you have to prove it it's not 00:39:42.420 --> 00:39:44.200 even that it's hard it's it's. 00:39:44.200 --> 00:39:47.080 That what they were arguing is it doesn't matter you can. 00:39:47.080 --> 00:39:50.940 I don't agree because there's been so many times that i've seen people do stupid 00:39:50.940 --> 00:39:57.780 correlations on shit okay i mean i i bullshit i've seen this is so over and over and over. 00:39:57.940 --> 00:40:03.120 I mean, where you get these dumb correlations that make, you know, 00:40:03.140 --> 00:40:06.760 that you think work, but it's just then all of a sudden something breaks it 00:40:06.760 --> 00:40:11.420 like badly and then you realize, oh, they really weren't connected, huh? 00:40:11.760 --> 00:40:15.680 You know, you have to go through a lot of modeling and a lot of testing to make 00:40:15.680 --> 00:40:19.460 sure that that data pattern, the way that it's happening is related. 00:40:19.620 --> 00:40:22.820 And it's not just, you know, it's not just a coincidence. 00:40:23.160 --> 00:40:25.300 So I don't think. 00:40:25.300 --> 00:40:30.380 So, so there's, there's a famous website called spurious correlations. 00:40:30.720 --> 00:40:33.560 If you Google spurious correlations, you'll find it. 00:40:33.580 --> 00:40:38.760 It lets you pick like random things and it just finds things that have been correlated with. 00:40:40.090 --> 00:40:44.470 That aren't real. So I just hit the random button. So here's an example. 00:40:45.370 --> 00:40:54.470 From 2004 to 2022, the consumption of butter correlates to the amount of wind 00:40:54.470 --> 00:40:57.610 power generated in Lithuania very strongly. 00:40:58.590 --> 00:41:04.510 Okay. Viewing random. Here's another one. The popularity of the dumb ways to 00:41:04.510 --> 00:41:11.270 die meme correlates very strongly from 2006 all the way to 2022 with the number 00:41:11.270 --> 00:41:13.970 of electronics engineers in the state of Utah. 00:41:14.450 --> 00:41:16.190 Ah, okay. 00:41:16.510 --> 00:41:21.490 One more, one more. um from 2002 00:41:21.490 --> 00:41:25.350 to 2022 the number 00:41:25.350 --> 00:41:32.710 of public students in ninth grade yeah as a from the national center of education 00:41:32.710 --> 00:41:38.770 statistics correlates yeah i'm looking at the graph they line up like nearly 00:41:38.770 --> 00:41:42.090 perfectly with the stock price of bank of america, 00:41:45.210 --> 00:41:50.850 so you know now yeah you could take this and be like okay so let me do some 00:41:50.850 --> 00:41:54.950 demographic projections on the number of students that are going to be in ninth 00:41:54.950 --> 00:42:02.090 grade the next few years and based on that decide how much how much bank of america. 00:42:02.090 --> 00:42:04.230 Is going to be worth yeah well good. 00:42:04.230 --> 00:42:06.810 Luck with that investment strategy okay all. 00:42:06.810 --> 00:42:10.850 Right look yeah so anyway so all right. 00:42:10.850 --> 00:42:16.030 What are you going to give this book? What's your rating? Let me finish a couple 00:42:16.030 --> 00:42:18.450 thoughts. A couple more thoughts. Sorry, sorry. 00:42:20.290 --> 00:42:25.490 Throughout this whole thing, of course, this was like 10 years ago, 00:42:25.590 --> 00:42:31.170 the parallels to what's currently going on with AI development were obvious. 00:42:31.790 --> 00:42:37.750 The AI development, especially LLMs, are just taking this to the next level. 00:42:37.870 --> 00:42:39.650 They're sucking up huge amounts of data. 00:42:40.070 --> 00:42:45.250 They've got complicated algorithms trying to pop out conclusions for that. 00:42:45.390 --> 00:42:49.450 I summarized the damn book with an AI at the beginning of this. 00:42:49.450 --> 00:42:53.390 And even more sophisticated, or I shouldn't say more sophisticated, 00:42:53.530 --> 00:42:59.450 even different models that aren't LLM-based also are just, they feed on the 00:42:59.450 --> 00:43:03.090 massive amounts of data in order to make their conclusions. 00:43:03.090 --> 00:43:05.970 And I think the same thing is true 00:43:05.970 --> 00:43:11.790 here, where I think there's still the underestimation of the problems. 00:43:11.790 --> 00:43:17.530 Problems it's it in both of these cases both 10 years ago and now with ai it's 00:43:17.530 --> 00:43:25.150 like everybody's so excited about the thing and willing to run with it that there's the amount of. 00:43:26.790 --> 00:43:31.590 Just pause and slow down a little bit to make sure what you're doing makes sense 00:43:31.590 --> 00:43:37.690 and isn't harmful is for the most part getting thrown by the wayside and and 00:43:37.690 --> 00:43:39.310 maybe we'll get lucky and there's nothing 00:43:39.410 --> 00:43:42.070 really horrible is going to come of it and it's all going to be wonderful. 00:43:42.250 --> 00:43:50.150 I mean, I I'm, I'm at this point using various AI tools on a regular basis for 00:43:50.150 --> 00:43:54.250 one thing or another, and they are saving me tons of time and they're useful, 00:43:54.330 --> 00:43:56.570 but you know, I don't know. 00:43:56.590 --> 00:44:00.510 I feel like it's just the, the main thing about this book. 00:44:00.550 --> 00:44:06.450 And I think about a lot of the AI talk right now is there is so much cheerleading and, 00:44:07.210 --> 00:44:08.810 About how wonderful this is. 00:44:08.910 --> 00:44:13.490 And yeah, the skeptics are definitely making noise too, just to be clear. 00:44:13.730 --> 00:44:19.330 But the industry as a whole seems to just be like full speed ahead. 00:44:19.470 --> 00:44:21.630 This is a gold mine. Let's go. 00:44:22.050 --> 00:44:25.570 And why, and why is that Sam? Why is it? 00:44:27.270 --> 00:44:33.530 Because it is undoubtedly true that there are going to be people making fortunes off this shit. 00:44:34.730 --> 00:44:39.890 Now it, Now, it may well crash after that, but in the meantime, 00:44:40.330 --> 00:44:46.090 there are people who are, you know, exactly like, 00:44:46.230 --> 00:44:51.930 you know, for all of these things, you know, I mean, the same thing has been 00:44:51.930 --> 00:44:55.970 said about a whole bunch of different phases of things. 00:44:55.970 --> 00:44:59.850 Like the most recent before this was crypto where everybody was like oh everything 00:44:59.850 --> 00:45:05.010 has to be crypto let's jump in with crypto on two feet and that is mostly faded 00:45:05.010 --> 00:45:09.110 out at this point let's see if it comes back but most most of the hype around 00:45:09.110 --> 00:45:14.990 that is like in hibernation at least at the moment i mean crypto is still around. 00:45:14.990 --> 00:45:16.030 But it's not. 00:45:16.030 --> 00:45:18.870 Oh no i know i know i mean i know and. 00:45:18.870 --> 00:45:24.710 And one of the the things and the biggest problems is that crypto has not proven to be a. 00:45:24.710 --> 00:45:26.090 Actually useful. 00:45:26.790 --> 00:45:30.750 Well it's not an easy trend easily transactable medium of exchange. 00:45:30.750 --> 00:45:33.330 Right right right right and then. 00:45:33.330 --> 00:45:36.770 And then the other thing is that one of the things that they were trying some 00:45:36.770 --> 00:45:42.970 people the idea was oh it's it's anonymous it's private it's not centralized 00:45:42.970 --> 00:45:46.370 and actually here's the reality it isn't at all. 00:45:46.370 --> 00:45:50.630 Yeah because everything is stored in a public fucking 00:45:50.630 --> 00:45:53.570 public blockchain that people can access 00:45:53.570 --> 00:45:59.370 that's right well and the thing is like and there's always leakage that can 00:45:59.370 --> 00:46:04.810 tie you back like the fbi has now gotten really good at figuring out who actually 00:46:04.810 --> 00:46:10.630 owns various wallets on blockchains and stuff like that uh it's not so that's why Yeah. 00:46:10.670 --> 00:46:14.750 But yeah, that whole anonymity thing is all bullshit. 00:46:14.770 --> 00:46:19.730 But my point is, I used crypto as one example, but you have these hype cycles 00:46:19.730 --> 00:46:24.870 every few years where some new technology is going to be the big new thing. 00:46:25.130 --> 00:46:28.630 And sometimes it works out. Sometimes it's a bubble. 00:46:28.930 --> 00:46:32.790 You know, sometimes it's not. I mean, and even like going back to the original 00:46:32.790 --> 00:46:33.930 Internet bubble, right? 00:46:34.050 --> 00:46:41.550 Like that initial bubble popped. but at this point the entire damn world is built on that. 00:46:41.550 --> 00:46:45.610 Anybody gonna question the value of a lot of this stuff? 00:46:45.730 --> 00:46:50.070 I mean, look, we talk about delivery of merchandise or whatever and one of the 00:46:50.070 --> 00:46:55.750 biggest flameouts that happened at that time was Webvan you know, which you know, they, 00:46:55.910 --> 00:46:59.830 well they were investing billions in warehouses and they never were able to 00:46:59.830 --> 00:47:00.910 monetize it or whatever, 00:47:01.130 --> 00:47:04.170 what a mistake that shit was never gonna work well. 00:47:05.440 --> 00:47:09.740 Yeah well now look well yeah i mean nobody can live. 00:47:09.740 --> 00:47:12.940 Without their delivery of anything i mean you. 00:47:12.940 --> 00:47:15.980 Know a common phenomena in these cycles going 00:47:15.980 --> 00:47:18.860 going back hell all the way to railroads and stuff probably 00:47:18.860 --> 00:47:22.960 even earlier is that the first movers actually 00:47:22.960 --> 00:47:27.580 don't automatically they're not the winners they're not the winners they build 00:47:27.580 --> 00:47:32.040 out a bunch of infrastructure and go bankrupt and then the people who come in 00:47:32.040 --> 00:47:35.520 in the second wave and can build off of that they're the ones who end up being 00:47:35.520 --> 00:47:41.900 the the big the big money makers who become monopolies and all this kind of stuff i still remember. 00:47:41.900 --> 00:47:46.260 What i still remember one of the greatest examples of that was in latin america 00:47:46.260 --> 00:47:54.060 during the 90s there was this huge investment surge in by telecoms across latin america. 00:47:54.060 --> 00:47:56.700 Yep i remember you using the example before and. 00:47:56.700 --> 00:48:02.000 And they they invested heavily in whatever and man And I mean, 00:48:02.000 --> 00:48:04.900 there was this massive bankrupt flame out. 00:48:04.960 --> 00:48:10.880 You had Global Crossing, OptiGlobe. There was Bell South, Latin America. 00:48:11.680 --> 00:48:15.340 And all of these companies sold everything for pennies on the dollar. 00:48:15.460 --> 00:48:20.480 And Carlos Slim in Mexico scooped them up all on pennies at the dollar. 00:48:20.660 --> 00:48:24.700 And right now, Carlos Slim is one of the top 10 richest people in the world. 00:48:25.080 --> 00:48:31.460 Right. And so, anyway, to the rating of the book, I'm actually going to give 00:48:31.460 --> 00:48:37.080 it a thumbs up, even though it's like a decade old, because it's thought-provoking, 00:48:37.080 --> 00:48:39.000 and it has the interesting... 00:48:39.910 --> 00:48:42.730 Dual nature where on the one 00:48:42.730 --> 00:48:46.090 hand they're talking about examples where you 00:48:46.090 --> 00:48:50.350 know what's happened because it's like 10 years of history have gone past that 00:48:50.350 --> 00:48:54.390 so you know like in some cases where they're being very optimistic about what's 00:48:54.390 --> 00:48:58.690 going to happen and you know oh well that flamed out that didn't actually work 00:48:58.690 --> 00:49:05.630 out because because of xyz whereas these other things did work out And meanwhile, 00:49:05.890 --> 00:49:13.650 the parallelism to what is now going on with AI is completely obvious because 00:49:13.650 --> 00:49:19.770 AI is just taking the same big data mindset and moving it to yet another new level. 00:49:19.770 --> 00:49:22.610 So I'm giving it a thumbs up like it's interesting 00:49:22.610 --> 00:49:25.650 because you get that history you 00:49:25.650 --> 00:49:28.430 see what they're talking about and know what they got wrong wrong and 00:49:28.430 --> 00:49:32.450 right but also it is still relevant to 00:49:32.450 --> 00:49:38.490 this new cycle of stuff that's going on right now so thumbs up it was I liked 00:49:38.490 --> 00:49:43.910 it I enjoyed the book it was it was worth the read I should mention as usual 00:49:43.910 --> 00:49:48.950 like this is one of the things that And by the way, I read this out loud to Alex, 00:49:49.190 --> 00:49:54.610 like I do with all my books now, and only occasionally, every once in a while, 00:49:54.650 --> 00:49:58.370 reading for like half an hour, but not on an everyday basis or anything. 00:49:59.070 --> 00:50:06.790 And so this book, which was 244 pages long, took me 271 days to read, 00:50:06.870 --> 00:50:10.970 so 0.9 pages per day was the rate at which this book was read. 00:50:11.090 --> 00:50:12.850 Well, there you go. There you go. 00:50:13.730 --> 00:50:19.370 And it's, I will also say like, you know, sometimes when reading books that 00:50:19.370 --> 00:50:23.010 are nonfiction, like to myself, 00:50:23.150 --> 00:50:27.550 I can find myself like reading a couple of pages and then going back and saying 00:50:27.550 --> 00:50:29.190 like, what was that again? 00:50:29.290 --> 00:50:33.270 I have to go back. Cause I, my mind started to drift and I was still reading. Yeah. 00:50:34.140 --> 00:50:42.140 Reading things out loud, every word, actually helps you stay paying attention 00:50:42.140 --> 00:50:43.320 to what the hell you're reading. 00:50:43.320 --> 00:50:44.320 That's very slow, though. 00:50:44.640 --> 00:50:47.940 It is. Oh, even that, I will add one thing. 00:50:48.340 --> 00:50:56.120 My son is like the mini version of me and insists on being a completist, 00:50:56.140 --> 00:51:03.780 which means we also read every word of the bibliography index and footnotes. 00:51:04.140 --> 00:51:09.120 Oh, fuck you guys. Fuck all of you. Jesus fucking Christ. 00:51:09.920 --> 00:51:12.720 God damn. Jesus. Fuck. 00:51:13.240 --> 00:51:19.300 Every word out loud. Reading the bibliography and the citation of like such 00:51:19.300 --> 00:51:21.980 and such book, page 46 through 47. 00:51:22.040 --> 00:51:24.060 I recognize the pattern. 00:51:27.440 --> 00:51:30.440 Okay. Let's take a break and then talk newsy stuff. 00:51:30.860 --> 00:51:33.720 This is another Apple dream. 00:51:34.140 --> 00:51:42.120 Oh this this is abel dream 41 it is a little bit long it is it's like three 00:51:42.120 --> 00:51:46.140 and a half minutes so just a heads up warning for those of you don't like them 00:51:46.140 --> 00:51:51.160 you can fast forward yvonne is going to have to suffer through it so here we 00:51:51.160 --> 00:51:53.600 go i'm i'm hitting i'm hitting play, 00:51:54.960 --> 00:52:00.460 hold on i hit the button wait oh let me maybe this button. 00:52:02.260 --> 00:52:04.660 Okay i don't like this dream at all, 00:52:07.180 --> 00:52:16.820 myself alex brandy and our dog jetski we're going to a park and we were gonna 00:52:16.820 --> 00:52:22.880 it was more park with like a lot of walking areas than like playgrounds and stuff. 00:52:24.140 --> 00:52:27.180 But we turned a corner and i saw 00:52:27.180 --> 00:52:30.200 a bear it was a black bear so i'm like bear 00:52:30.200 --> 00:52:33.180 bear bear and i'm motioning for everybody to 00:52:33.180 --> 00:52:38.880 turn around and we all turn around and as we turn around a much bigger like 00:52:38.880 --> 00:52:42.880 grizzly bear kind goes running by now there's like a little fence between us 00:52:42.880 --> 00:52:47.100 and where the grizzly bear was but it was one of those like wooden slat fence 00:52:47.100 --> 00:52:51.160 not slat you know where they They put the little pieces of wood, 00:52:51.220 --> 00:52:55.380 like, next to each other and little things. 00:52:55.500 --> 00:52:57.640 Anyway, the kind you could get through easily. Like, it's... 00:52:58.460 --> 00:53:02.080 You could jump over it or somebody could get through it and we're heading back to the car, 00:53:02.740 --> 00:53:09.180 and trying to like the bear is still a little bit of ways and then we're like where's jet ski, 00:53:09.800 --> 00:53:12.820 and then we see like two bears 00:53:12.820 --> 00:53:16.920 off in the distance tossing something and we're like oh no jet ski got between 00:53:16.920 --> 00:53:24.480 the two bears and we make some loud noises and the bears run away but we go 00:53:24.480 --> 00:53:31.480 to get jet ski and his whole back half isn't working right he's still alive though and so then we're. 00:53:32.340 --> 00:53:39.100 Like rushing to get him back into the car like I pick him up and like taking him back to the, 00:53:39.660 --> 00:53:44.440 trying to take him back to the car like I didn't fit I am like I don't know 00:53:44.440 --> 00:53:48.660 if I'm supposed to move him but I have no choice and I was picking him up and 00:53:48.660 --> 00:53:53.900 my wife was on the phone trying to 00:53:53.940 --> 00:53:58.260 figure out the right place to take him and whether our pet insurance would cover 00:53:58.260 --> 00:53:59.940 like being mauled by a bear. 00:54:01.640 --> 00:54:07.760 And Jetski was still breathing but felt like he weighed like two pounds and he's a 150-pound dog. 00:54:10.040 --> 00:54:14.880 And we get him to the car and we're trying to get him into the car. 00:54:15.480 --> 00:54:19.160 And someone who was in the way getting in the car and I yelled at them and I 00:54:19.160 --> 00:54:21.680 apologized for yelling at them and was like, but my dog. 00:54:22.700 --> 00:54:26.520 And as we're getting I think Randy was 00:54:26.520 --> 00:54:29.360 finding out that this kind of thing was not 00:54:29.360 --> 00:54:34.240 covered by insurance so we'd have to figure out the money things and it wasn't 00:54:34.240 --> 00:54:40.620 clear to me if Jet Ski was going to make it but he was struggling he fought 00:54:40.620 --> 00:54:44.480 against me he didn't want to get into the car I guess he wanted to go back to 00:54:44.480 --> 00:54:48.580 the Bears or something I was very upset, very worried, 00:54:49.420 --> 00:54:50.940 this was not a good dream, 00:54:52.220 --> 00:54:58.480 And then I woke up, and it was one of those where I was very, 00:54:58.560 --> 00:55:04.100 very relieved to discover that this was a dream, and it was not really happening. 00:55:05.520 --> 00:55:09.780 So, yeah. I'm gonna go find my dog. Well, no. 00:55:10.180 --> 00:55:13.580 He's asleep downstairs somewhere. I'm gonna leave him alone. I apologize. 00:55:14.510 --> 00:55:17.150 Going to go back to sleep in a second. Bye. 00:55:17.930 --> 00:55:18.850 And that's it. 00:55:19.510 --> 00:55:26.670 You know, recently, I had a dream for some reason that my wife and I were in 00:55:26.670 --> 00:55:28.450 hand-to-hand combat with ninjas. 00:55:28.690 --> 00:55:29.910 Oh, okay. Yep. 00:55:30.010 --> 00:55:36.130 And by the way, you know, at least we were kicking the ninjas' ass. 00:55:36.450 --> 00:55:37.770 Oh, good job. Okay. 00:55:37.790 --> 00:55:42.010 We were repelling the ninjas. 00:55:42.590 --> 00:55:47.950 And i woke up and i'm like okay honey yeah you know hey apparently we're under 00:55:47.950 --> 00:55:52.630 ninja attack apparently we we're gonna kick their asses good. 00:55:52.630 --> 00:55:55.910 Job i mean it's your your training has paid off. 00:55:55.910 --> 00:56:00.450 The training has paid off yes absolutely so anyway so i i don't know what that 00:56:00.450 --> 00:56:06.090 means but anyway all right so uh on to the things uh yeah let's see what do 00:56:06.090 --> 00:56:07.450 we want to cover first yeah. 00:56:07.450 --> 00:56:11.070 It's yeah Yeah, it's your pick first. I can do the traditional, 00:56:11.350 --> 00:56:15.470 like, I'm doing all the election stuff in my segment if you want to cover other stuff now. 00:56:17.010 --> 00:56:19.610 Or shake it up. You can do election stuff. I don't know. 00:56:20.810 --> 00:56:25.970 Now let me see. I'm looking at what we've got here. Well, I had made some notes. 00:56:26.090 --> 00:56:28.870 So we've got Hurricane Helene. 00:56:29.490 --> 00:56:29.910 Yeah. 00:56:31.270 --> 00:56:35.650 So, you know, one thing that I didn't realize about this hurricane, 00:56:35.650 --> 00:56:37.910 And that was the discussion about this. 00:56:38.010 --> 00:56:45.410 And the storm was very large in terms of the wind area that was covered. 00:56:45.550 --> 00:56:50.250 It's not that it doesn't happen, but most hurricanes, usually the wind field 00:56:50.250 --> 00:56:52.590 itself is relatively small. 00:56:52.750 --> 00:56:58.490 So it only affects a pretty relatively narrow band around the storm. 00:56:58.610 --> 00:57:05.210 But in this case, I mean, the winds several hundred miles away were tropical storm winds. 00:57:05.210 --> 00:57:11.430 This was a very big storm, and it caused a lot of storm surge all across the 00:57:11.430 --> 00:57:17.030 west coast of Florida, and actually some difficult weather conditions even in 00:57:17.030 --> 00:57:18.110 the east coast of Florida. 00:57:20.090 --> 00:57:24.710 The airports were impacted with a lot of delays and difficulties. 00:57:24.830 --> 00:57:31.850 The winds and the strength of the winds was pretty stiff, and the thing is that 00:57:31.850 --> 00:57:37.790 you had pretty strong steady winds, but you had very strong gusts, okay? 00:57:38.290 --> 00:57:46.390 And coming from the south, most of the runways at airports in the Florida east 00:57:46.390 --> 00:57:50.650 coast, whether it's Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, or Miami International Airport, 00:57:50.950 --> 00:57:54.010 have east to west running runways, okay? 00:57:54.270 --> 00:57:59.070 Okay. Except Miami, that does have a crossing runway, okay? Okay. 00:58:00.050 --> 00:58:02.510 There is a lot of videos online of 00:58:02.510 --> 00:58:11.550 airplanes trying to land with what were crosswinds at about the maximum, 00:58:11.770 --> 00:58:18.310 you know, close to, you know, the maximum crosswind that you're allowed to land. 00:58:18.430 --> 00:58:21.070 Right. Struggling to do so. Okay. 00:58:21.590 --> 00:58:29.250 And a lot of flights got canceled. And Miami Airport did not gamble with that 00:58:29.250 --> 00:58:30.970 and was just using the crossing runway, 00:58:31.290 --> 00:58:37.030 which made the crosswind vector lower, but it limited then that you had an airport 00:58:37.030 --> 00:58:43.010 that normally operates with three runways down to one for both takeoffs and landings, okay? 00:58:43.010 --> 00:58:47.050 I saw some bigger airplanes say, fuck it, we're going to do it. 00:58:47.110 --> 00:58:52.290 So I did see that an A380 landed on the east-west runway, and they were like, fuck it. 00:58:52.390 --> 00:58:56.470 The Lufthansa was like, you know what, this beast will do it. Whatever. 00:58:56.970 --> 00:59:02.630 We're fucking, we're putting this thing down. But I happened to have been flying 00:59:02.630 --> 00:59:11.790 back yesterday from Puerto Rico. And it made it that it took what an approach to Miami. 00:59:12.230 --> 00:59:17.270 Once you're once we're inside of the airport, you'll be touching down in like 00:59:17.270 --> 00:59:20.130 10 minutes. Max. All right. 00:59:20.830 --> 00:59:26.090 We spent about almost 50 minutes to land because. Yeah. 00:59:26.660 --> 00:59:32.740 Since they were only using one runway, they had to make this massive line of 00:59:32.740 --> 00:59:40.680 airplanes that was stretching all the way to central Florida in order to make 00:59:40.680 --> 00:59:42.460 them, you know, line them up. 00:59:42.560 --> 00:59:46.520 You know, oh, you have to. It's like, listen, you have to go to the back of the line. 00:59:46.660 --> 00:59:51.700 Well, the back of the line kept getting longer and longer and longer and longer 00:59:51.700 --> 00:59:57.220 and longer at the airport. I kept going, and I'm like, how fucking far are we 00:59:57.220 --> 00:59:58.760 going away, for God's sakes? 00:59:58.840 --> 01:00:04.020 And yeah, it was like the furthest away I've ever started an approach into Miami 01:00:04.020 --> 01:00:07.520 International Airport ever in my life. And I will say this again. 01:00:07.980 --> 01:00:13.740 Also, that was one of the bumpiest fucking landings I've ever made at Miami 01:00:13.740 --> 01:00:15.520 International Airport in my life. 01:00:15.520 --> 01:00:20.780 Because even with the fact that we were on runway 12, the winds were coming 01:00:20.780 --> 01:00:24.500 from 180, 190 around there. 01:00:24.600 --> 01:00:30.580 That was still a strong fucking crosswind that was gusting up to 40, 50 knots. 01:00:30.700 --> 01:00:36.160 And that was a ride to get in. 01:00:36.260 --> 01:00:40.760 People on the plane were a little bit unnerved. The landing was hard, okay? 01:00:41.700 --> 01:00:47.020 And so that was going on. on in the west coast of florida the storm surge from 01:00:47.020 --> 01:00:48.420 the storm yeah let's just talk. 01:00:48.420 --> 01:00:51.720 About the actual start like enough about your plane stuff like those were. 01:00:51.720 --> 01:00:54.440 Fine but well well yeah in the end it was 01:00:54.440 --> 01:00:58.160 fine but there was obviously a lot of people but but you know that was my my 01:00:58.160 --> 01:01:03.080 but my personal experience of the but but but the thing is that this was like 01:01:03.080 --> 01:01:08.580 hundreds and hundreds of miles away usually when it's that far away it doesn't 01:01:08.580 --> 01:01:11.860 fucking matter right and this thing was was so far away, 01:01:11.960 --> 01:01:14.560 and we're getting the effects of this thing, and I was like, 01:01:14.600 --> 01:01:15.960 holy shit, what the hell? 01:01:16.380 --> 01:01:22.420 But, man, you know, the storm surge was brutal, that they had all across the 01:01:22.420 --> 01:01:25.680 west coast of Florida, a lot of different places, and, 01:01:26.840 --> 01:01:34.860 This is the third major hurricane that has hit the panhandle in the last 13 months. Right. Okay. 01:01:35.540 --> 01:01:37.880 And this was by far the biggest of the three. 01:01:38.120 --> 01:01:41.660 Yeah. And I mean, it's three of them. 01:01:41.720 --> 01:01:47.400 And one of the damn things about the panhandle and that area in northern Florida, 01:01:47.480 --> 01:01:51.280 which always just made me nervous. 01:01:51.280 --> 01:01:58.720 And I said, I'm never fucking buying a house in this area because even like 01:01:58.720 --> 01:02:05.380 newer houses there are not built to withstand even a cat one cat to hurricane. 01:02:05.600 --> 01:02:11.360 You know, this is this is what like you can understand maybe for like something 01:02:11.360 --> 01:02:14.180 built a long, long time ago. But new construction. 01:02:14.300 --> 01:02:16.920 Come on. There's no excuse now. 01:02:17.040 --> 01:02:22.060 And there is no excuse. I went to, I had some friends or neighbors that moved to Jacksonville. 01:02:22.080 --> 01:02:25.540 They bought a new house over there. They moved up there because to be fair, 01:02:25.540 --> 01:02:28.160 it was a lot more affordable than now here. And I, and I get that. 01:02:28.540 --> 01:02:31.700 And the house is beautiful. But then I realized I'm looking at the fucking house. 01:02:32.360 --> 01:02:36.400 It's all wood. All the walls, every, I mean, yeah, it's, it's, 01:02:36.400 --> 01:02:40.820 it's just a poor, it's a concrete slab at the bottom and the fucking structure is all wood. 01:02:40.860 --> 01:02:43.740 I'm like, fuck this thing in a cat three cat four hurricane. 01:02:43.820 --> 01:02:46.500 It's like, you know, say bye bye, say bye bye to this fucker. 01:02:47.660 --> 01:02:50.680 It's not surviving this is a new construction in the last three or four years 01:02:50.680 --> 01:02:54.280 and so i'm like going i'm like what the fuck is 01:02:54.280 --> 01:02:57.500 with this shit and so you know they were showing videos of these communities 01:02:57.500 --> 01:03:02.700 they got wiped out and you see that every single fucking house uh you know was 01:03:02.700 --> 01:03:07.640 not elevated to accommodate for storm surge was made out of materials that basically 01:03:07.640 --> 01:03:11.280 like the bit wolf could have blown them down and i'm just like you know, 01:03:12.550 --> 01:03:15.390 what the hell people it's just i i mean it's 01:03:15.390 --> 01:03:18.270 like i don't and and and you know i know 01:03:18.270 --> 01:03:21.350 that a lot of those historically have been there for a long time people 01:03:21.350 --> 01:03:24.070 anything about it but i just always felt it's 01:03:24.070 --> 01:03:28.510 like i mean look you've had so many big hurricanes hit that area and i'm just 01:03:28.510 --> 01:03:35.250 like now there is a stat recently i saw that in florida right now of residences 01:03:35.250 --> 01:03:38.150 and a lot of these i assume are paid for because there are a number of these 01:03:38.150 --> 01:03:41.770 25 of homes right now are completely 01:03:41.930 --> 01:03:44.410 uninsured. Okay. 01:03:44.590 --> 01:03:45.450 That's crazy. 01:03:46.210 --> 01:03:49.770 Yeah. They're completely uninsured. So they basically, you know, 01:03:49.770 --> 01:03:54.250 they are running the risk that if they get hit by a, by a hurricane, 01:03:54.410 --> 01:03:58.710 they are out there. They're not going to have any, I mean, they're not going 01:03:58.710 --> 01:04:00.210 to have the resources to rebuild at all. 01:04:01.250 --> 01:04:02.590 And, you know, or. 01:04:02.590 --> 01:04:06.190 Or anything or anything, it's not, it's not just a hurricane. 01:04:06.270 --> 01:04:07.890 Like there are There are all kinds of things that could happen. 01:04:07.970 --> 01:04:13.210 A fire, you know, yeah, absolutely. There's a lot of a lot of other things that 01:04:13.210 --> 01:04:16.650 could happen that that would wind up, you know, leaving them homeless. Yes, absolutely. 01:04:17.770 --> 01:04:26.170 So I, you know, this this state has been suffering through a series of issues 01:04:26.170 --> 01:04:27.530 related to insurance issues. 01:04:29.140 --> 01:04:33.280 The governor basically has just not really done anything about it. 01:04:33.540 --> 01:04:37.320 You know, the governor, obviously, right. Yesterday, I see him. 01:04:37.400 --> 01:04:42.440 I don't understand what, you know, there's another narcissist jerk off. 01:04:42.660 --> 01:04:46.100 Who the fuck wears a shirt with their name on it? 01:04:46.340 --> 01:04:51.520 Like, you're not even running for campaign right now. He was like with a sweater 01:04:51.520 --> 01:04:56.460 vest that has his name like printed in big DeSantis like here. 01:04:56.680 --> 01:04:58.340 Okay, like on his chest. chest. 01:04:58.340 --> 01:04:59.300 You know i. 01:04:59.300 --> 01:05:00.380 I'm sorry to. 01:05:00.380 --> 01:05:06.040 Be fair i i have seen like i i've seen like. 01:05:06.040 --> 01:05:10.540 Who who i i mean he's not running for re-election right now sam he's not running 01:05:10.540 --> 01:05:14.760 for president not running for re-election it's not like it's more like a it's. 01:05:14.760 --> 01:05:16.060 More like a name tag right. 01:05:16.060 --> 01:05:19.220 No no i mean i know. 01:05:19.220 --> 01:05:21.700 It's embroidered but it serves that function right. 01:05:21.700 --> 01:05:27.660 No i don't think so no no no i i don't think so i. 01:05:27.660 --> 01:05:29.520 Know all my clothes say sam you. 01:05:29.520 --> 01:05:35.940 Know actually that would look nice i'll get you a nice little you know get a 01:05:35.940 --> 01:05:38.420 nice little sweater it says sam or. 01:05:38.420 --> 01:05:40.760 My logo my little abelsmay logo. 01:05:40.760 --> 01:05:44.800 You know i get that on all my clothes yeah or an apple yeah that's another one 01:05:44.800 --> 01:05:48.980 i mean i get it i mean i work if you work those are those of you listening. 01:05:48.980 --> 01:05:53.520 Cannot see right now but ivan is currently wearing. 01:05:53.520 --> 01:05:54.980 Something with. 01:05:54.980 --> 01:05:58.100 All kinds of corporate logos all over. 01:05:58.100 --> 01:06:02.760 His shirt yes you know yes i am yes i am now it's. 01:06:02.760 --> 01:06:04.640 Who's it's who's uh paying for him. 01:06:04.640 --> 01:06:08.200 Yeah so it's me these are these are my corporate sponsors right now they're 01:06:08.200 --> 01:06:12.640 paying the bills yes absolutely you know i got ubs securities crowd strike of 01:06:12.640 --> 01:06:16.760 course crowd strike you know they're paying for their i mean you know we we 01:06:16.760 --> 01:06:21.360 had we we had the tapes so they basically had to pay us you know on on how they 01:06:21.360 --> 01:06:22.620 screwed it, everybody. So anyway... 01:06:24.480 --> 01:06:29.820 I it's just the thing is that this bastard is going out there just doing some more self-promotion. 01:06:29.860 --> 01:06:33.140 I guess maybe he's going to think that he's going to battle like take Marco 01:06:33.140 --> 01:06:35.320 Rubio Senate seat or some shit like this. 01:06:35.400 --> 01:06:37.940 I don't know who the hell knows. Maybe I mean, maybe. 01:06:38.240 --> 01:06:43.180 And, you know, he hasn't done anything about the fucking insurance insurance issue. 01:06:43.340 --> 01:06:49.440 He keep doing he keeps talking about climate change doesn't exist. You blah, blah, blah. 01:06:50.400 --> 01:06:55.100 Then he talks about resilience. He gives some money. But it's just that this 01:06:55.100 --> 01:07:00.200 guy just, he builds up straw man. He fights against them, but he doesn't fix anything. 01:07:00.400 --> 01:07:04.660 And the, and the insurance issue has been one that has, you know, 01:07:04.660 --> 01:07:07.680 dragged on and on. It's not fixed. 01:07:08.680 --> 01:07:16.020 You know, our premiums here are up 300% in the last five, six years. 01:07:16.100 --> 01:07:20.960 And part of this, we haven't said the words yet, but like this, 01:07:21.060 --> 01:07:23.180 there's a climate change component here. 01:07:23.580 --> 01:07:25.080 Yes, and that's what I was saying. 01:07:25.820 --> 01:07:33.280 Storms are getting bigger, they're getting more frequent. Not every year. It's all statistical. 01:07:34.020 --> 01:07:37.760 Here's the thing, we haven't gotten hit with them down here in South Florida, 01:07:37.860 --> 01:07:41.060 but the reality is that, you know, 01:07:42.490 --> 01:07:47.310 Down here, we're way better prepared than they are up there, okay? 01:07:47.370 --> 01:07:50.450 And unfortunately, the guys that are getting hammered with three of them in 01:07:50.450 --> 01:07:53.970 the last 15 months, there's a place that's way less prepared and the one that 01:07:53.970 --> 01:07:56.090 least believes in this being real. 01:07:57.010 --> 01:07:58.230 I mean, that's the problem. 01:07:58.830 --> 01:08:01.890 Well and the thing is like you know 01:08:01.890 --> 01:08:05.070 without without interventions 01:08:05.070 --> 01:08:08.610 of some sort it is very possible 01:08:08.610 --> 01:08:17.250 that certain areas it just doesn't make sense to rebuild and so insurance companies 01:08:17.250 --> 01:08:21.990 aren't going to want to voluntarily do business there because it's like we're 01:08:21.990 --> 01:08:24.750 not going to make our money back because of course this is going to get screwed 01:08:24.750 --> 01:08:27.130 up again sooner rather than later right Well. 01:08:27.230 --> 01:08:30.010 It's like what I was mentioning earlier about the guy in California, 01:08:30.210 --> 01:08:32.210 though, because of the wildfires decided to just not rebuild. 01:08:32.390 --> 01:08:33.170 Yeah. Yeah. 01:08:33.210 --> 01:08:38.170 You know, the mitigation that he had to do in order to ensure that he wouldn't 01:08:38.170 --> 01:08:40.910 get damaged again that way was so much. 01:08:40.930 --> 01:08:47.210 And part of the reason why the hotel was staying is still only half an operation 01:08:47.210 --> 01:08:51.770 is because of how much work that will take in order to do it. 01:08:51.790 --> 01:08:55.590 They're planning on doing it, but it's been four years of work and you're still not there yet. 01:08:55.590 --> 01:08:58.590 Yet so that is that is 01:08:58.590 --> 01:09:01.950 a that is a big issue and over here you're just 01:09:01.950 --> 01:09:05.090 not getting in a lot of places that stuff 01:09:05.090 --> 01:09:10.850 done it's just not happening this government isn't putting a focus on that or 01:09:10.850 --> 01:09:15.690 a priority because one of the things that you would have done already if you 01:09:15.690 --> 01:09:20.870 really took this seriously was upgrade the building codes right you wouldn't 01:09:20.870 --> 01:09:23.810 allow those damn house new houses that are being built, 01:09:23.830 --> 01:09:25.930 you know, out of. 01:09:25.930 --> 01:09:28.630 Out of regulation is bad. 01:09:29.210 --> 01:09:33.930 Yes. That's the problem. Regulation is bad. Yes. All regulation is bad. 01:09:34.390 --> 01:09:37.970 No, but yeah, I think you're absolutely right. Like it, it's, 01:09:38.010 --> 01:09:41.010 it's one of those things where you're, you have to make a decision at some point 01:09:41.010 --> 01:09:48.550 that says either you take vast swaths of land and say, this is not actually inhabitable. 01:09:48.790 --> 01:09:49.230 Yeah. 01:09:49.270 --> 01:09:53.070 You You can't live here. Maybe, maybe you could visit, make it a national park 01:09:53.070 --> 01:09:57.590 or something, but like, you're not going to build houses and stores and all 01:09:57.590 --> 01:09:58.590 this kind of stuff in there. 01:09:59.030 --> 01:10:04.870 Or you put requirements in place that say, if you're going to build here, 01:10:05.070 --> 01:10:14.970 you're going to build in a way that will survive any reasonably expectable event that might happen. 01:10:15.350 --> 01:10:18.990 And this goes for other parts of the country too. I mean, where you are, 01:10:19.070 --> 01:10:20.670 it's like hurricanes and stuff like that. 01:10:20.690 --> 01:10:24.170 In other places, it's the wildfires. In other places, it's earthquakes. 01:10:24.390 --> 01:10:27.170 In other places, it's landslides, whatever. 01:10:27.870 --> 01:10:32.870 But, you know, just saying like, hey, there are dangers in this spot. 01:10:33.030 --> 01:10:36.190 If you're going to build here, you have to account for them. 01:10:36.770 --> 01:10:41.490 Right. And, you know, and if you're going to build there and despite the fact 01:10:41.490 --> 01:10:43.870 that we said no build, well, then, you know what? You get destroyed. 01:10:44.110 --> 01:10:46.430 It's your shit out of luck. You're getting nothing. 01:10:46.810 --> 01:10:52.250 I mean, forget it. I'm sorry, but I just we just can't, you know, 01:10:52.250 --> 01:10:56.870 the problem is if they build new, if they build new. What I'm saying is after a disaster. 01:10:57.070 --> 01:11:01.050 I mean, I get that certain people, you know, I've lived in some places that 01:11:01.050 --> 01:11:03.170 right now are 40, 50 years. 01:11:03.290 --> 01:11:06.450 Yeah, there's a difference between historical things and new construction. 01:11:06.790 --> 01:11:10.050 But even then, there's also the flip side of that, right? Like if you make new 01:11:10.050 --> 01:11:13.810 construction more expensive, then you're pricing certain people out of the market. 01:11:13.950 --> 01:11:15.310 And then what do those people do? 01:11:15.310 --> 01:11:19.370 The thing is that the thing is that there are construction methods in order 01:11:19.370 --> 01:11:25.650 to build these, you know, that are more resilient, that don't add that much to the cost. 01:11:25.990 --> 01:11:31.650 But, you know, especially when you're talking about, man, we're not talking about $100,000 houses. 01:11:31.950 --> 01:11:34.630 We're talking about houses worth $450,000. 01:11:35.330 --> 01:11:36.790 Look, I bullshit. 01:11:36.910 --> 01:11:41.730 They're just goosing. They're just goosing. But you also you have to also talk 01:11:41.730 --> 01:11:45.910 about the apartment buildings and things like that. And maybe maybe maybe you 01:11:45.910 --> 01:11:49.670 shouldn't have trailer parks at all, you know, but like if you're going to build that. 01:11:49.890 --> 01:11:54.730 Listen, I've said that. I mean, I'm sorry that all of those should be outlawed. 01:11:54.730 --> 01:11:56.610 I mean, I in the state of Florida. 01:11:56.630 --> 01:12:01.130 I mean, I just you cannot have those as permanent residences. 01:12:01.190 --> 01:12:05.710 Well, shit, we got people trying to ride out storms in every fucking time we get a storm. 01:12:05.990 --> 01:12:08.450 Right. I try to ride them out on fucking sailboats, man. 01:12:08.770 --> 01:12:12.410 And then all we do is fucking pick up the body, fish the bodies of these fucking 01:12:12.410 --> 01:12:18.550 people out of this game. okay it's just stupid it's just stupid there's suicide 01:12:18.550 --> 01:12:22.350 boxes you cannot ride a major storm out in a fucking sailboat. 01:12:22.350 --> 01:12:25.730 Right and yet 01:12:25.730 --> 01:12:31.450 you you end up in a situation by the way like you know when you when you are 01:12:31.450 --> 01:12:35.430 giving the okay everybody evacuate everybody get out this is going to be an 01:12:35.430 --> 01:12:41.270 unsurvivable situation if you don't also provide the support to actually get 01:12:41.270 --> 01:12:45.270 all of those people There are all kinds of people who have situations financially. 01:12:45.830 --> 01:12:49.890 They don't have the resources to get out. Or even if they do, 01:12:50.010 --> 01:12:56.530 like grandma doesn't, and they can't take grandma or the systems in place, 01:12:56.630 --> 01:12:58.530 don't let them take their pats or whatever. 01:12:58.750 --> 01:13:02.690 There's all kinds of things that make it hard. and you 01:13:02.690 --> 01:13:06.010 know you you i don't know yet there are 01:13:06.010 --> 01:13:10.850 ways to be prepared and ways to be resilient to these kinds of things but hey 01:13:10.850 --> 01:13:18.210 part of fixing these problems is indeed you know you have to provide the support 01:13:18.210 --> 01:13:22.830 so even your poorest people can live somewhere that's safe. 01:13:22.830 --> 01:13:29.470 And but i i i think also So, you know, I've been used to living with this since I was a child. 01:13:30.090 --> 01:13:30.410 Okay. 01:13:30.470 --> 01:13:30.630 Okay. 01:13:31.550 --> 01:13:36.630 I remember the first hurricanes that we had to prepare for when I was little 01:13:36.630 --> 01:13:41.090 that were massive storms, you know, that that most of them missed us. 01:13:41.170 --> 01:13:47.190 But, you know, when I was when I was a freshman in college, you know, 01:13:47.210 --> 01:13:48.970 Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico. 01:13:49.450 --> 01:13:52.790 Hurricane Hugo is a category three, category four storm. 01:13:52.990 --> 01:13:55.890 I mean, you know, I remember that I could talk to my parents for weeks. 01:13:56.030 --> 01:14:03.530 I had no idea how they were. I mean, the phones died right as the storm approached, 01:14:03.810 --> 01:14:07.370 and I didn't know anything for two weeks. 01:14:08.630 --> 01:14:17.710 So I've lived with this, but, you know, I don't get, like, the storms themselves, 01:14:17.870 --> 01:14:21.170 they don't scare me because I've lived with this my entire life. 01:14:21.250 --> 01:14:25.010 It's just one of those things that Mother Nature throws at you. 01:14:25.010 --> 01:14:28.750 I mean, if you're in the Midwest, you've got tornadoes, you know, 01:14:28.750 --> 01:14:31.670 if you're in the West Coast, you've got earthquakes, you got wildfires, 01:14:31.850 --> 01:14:36.710 you know, they're mother nature, no matter where the hell you are. 01:14:37.670 --> 01:14:42.290 As a way of getting you one way or another, you know, is the thinking about 01:14:42.290 --> 01:14:47.270 the flash floods in Texas, for example, that happen whenever they get a massive rain event. 01:14:48.090 --> 01:14:53.270 I mean, the flash flooding that happens so quickly, you know, 01:14:53.290 --> 01:14:54.470 it just overwhelms people. 01:14:54.530 --> 01:14:56.970 Like a couple of minutes before, there's nothing, and then all of a sudden, 01:14:57.010 --> 01:14:58.430 people are drowning. So it's crazy. 01:14:59.070 --> 01:15:06.030 So I just think that, you know, me, I, you know, to me, I see people how they 01:15:06.030 --> 01:15:07.850 are stressed and panicked. 01:15:07.870 --> 01:15:11.850 I was seeing somebody in the opinion page talking about it, but they didn't grow up with this, okay? 01:15:12.230 --> 01:15:15.590 They moved there when they were an adult. You know, I had to deal with this 01:15:15.590 --> 01:15:21.050 as a child. And so I, for some reason, my mentality is, look, 01:15:21.150 --> 01:15:26.910 with a hurricane, my feeling is, I know it's coming. I can prepare. 01:15:27.430 --> 01:15:32.170 And in my family, we take preparation seriously. 01:15:33.230 --> 01:15:38.070 I know so many people that don't and then wind up in terrible situations. 01:15:38.070 --> 01:15:43.330 But the key to all of this and like why my parents, maybe there were two weeks 01:15:43.330 --> 01:15:46.290 in Comunicado, but you know what? 01:15:46.370 --> 01:15:49.050 We had generators. We had water stored. They had whatever. 01:15:49.230 --> 01:15:51.890 They had electricity. They had satellite. They had everything. 01:15:52.050 --> 01:15:53.610 The only thing they couldn't do was call out. 01:15:54.110 --> 01:15:57.210 But they had everything because they were prepared. 01:15:57.570 --> 01:16:02.690 And that's the one thing that people just, I don't know, they don't think in advance about it. 01:16:02.790 --> 01:16:07.410 You know, like I was explaining, I've got, I mean, we haven't had a hurricane threat. 01:16:08.070 --> 01:16:13.510 Yet this season, but I've got a whole bunch of massive water bottles stored in our laundry room. 01:16:14.010 --> 01:16:14.450 Right. 01:16:14.550 --> 01:16:18.750 You know what? I have them there. They're already there. I have a gas stove 01:16:18.750 --> 01:16:20.510 in the garage ready to go. 01:16:20.990 --> 01:16:25.610 I got coolers to store stuff ready to go. Yeah. You know, I've got this shit. It's ready. 01:16:25.910 --> 01:16:30.310 Okay. I don't have to start from scratch to get prepared for a damn storm. 01:16:31.030 --> 01:16:34.890 But you see so many people that all of a sudden they see a storm bearing down 01:16:34.890 --> 01:16:38.270 and then all of a sudden they're freaking out trying to prepare for this thing. 01:16:38.410 --> 01:16:43.010 OK, and, you know, it's it's just always to me it's wild. 01:16:43.190 --> 01:16:48.290 OK, it's wild that they just have not taken one second to prepare. 01:16:48.410 --> 01:16:52.610 So why always, you know, they say this right before a hurricane season starts. 01:16:52.710 --> 01:16:54.490 Hey, get prepared to do whatever. 01:16:54.730 --> 01:16:57.750 Man, 90 percent of people don't do shit. 01:16:58.450 --> 01:17:05.850 Well yeah a lot of it is just not yeah no motivation but again i i keep coming 01:17:05.850 --> 01:17:11.970 back to there are also people who you know being prepared takes money you know well. 01:17:11.970 --> 01:17:13.830 Some is cheap i mean. 01:17:13.830 --> 01:17:14.670 How much you think. 01:17:14.670 --> 01:17:16.170 Like a whole bunch listen you think. 01:17:16.170 --> 01:17:18.690 I know i know i got i got like i got i. 01:17:18.690 --> 01:17:22.770 Got five massive jugs of water in my thing what do you think 10 bucks. 01:17:22.770 --> 01:17:28.530 I i know but But for some people, 10 bucks is a big deal, you know? But yeah. 01:17:28.690 --> 01:17:29.110 Fair enough. 01:17:29.650 --> 01:17:30.270 You know? 01:17:30.350 --> 01:17:31.450 Yeah, it's a good point. 01:17:32.470 --> 01:17:38.190 But yeah, like, this is one of those things where, first of all, 01:17:38.230 --> 01:17:40.230 yes, people have to be more aware. 01:17:40.350 --> 01:17:43.930 People have to actually take these things seriously. But also, 01:17:43.990 --> 01:17:48.530 you have to assume that lots of people won't. And so, therefore, 01:17:48.810 --> 01:17:52.310 state and local governments need to be ready to take up the slack. 01:17:52.310 --> 01:17:56.830 And that's where the government of the state of Florida, especially, 01:17:57.050 --> 01:18:01.150 I mean, I will say that more so than ever under this governor, 01:18:01.290 --> 01:18:04.230 has not taken their job with this shit seriously. 01:18:04.510 --> 01:18:08.290 Because I will say that we had a number of Republican governors before, 01:18:08.350 --> 01:18:11.270 and they took this way more seriously than this damn clown. 01:18:11.750 --> 01:18:16.390 This guy is definitely the worst fucking governor we have had in a long time. 01:18:16.390 --> 01:18:20.670 I said state and local, but of course the feds have FEMA, the Red Cross as a 01:18:20.670 --> 01:18:22.670 private organization does a lot of stuff. 01:18:22.950 --> 01:18:31.010 There are all sorts of things out there, but having all of them up and running 01:18:31.010 --> 01:18:34.190 and prepared and making sure they know what they're doing is important. 01:18:34.350 --> 01:18:38.970 And like you're saying, it does matter. If you've got somebody who doesn't take 01:18:38.970 --> 01:18:42.930 it seriously and says, ah, well, we'll deal with that when it happens, 01:18:43.150 --> 01:18:45.430 then you're just asking for it. 01:18:45.430 --> 01:18:48.590 Yeah and that and that's the reality so so 01:18:48.590 --> 01:18:51.570 anyway a lot of people got got and thankfully 01:18:51.570 --> 01:18:58.470 the one thing at least thankfully about where it went the storm like right now 01:18:58.470 --> 01:19:03.230 through florida is that that is one of the least but we had the storm surge 01:19:03.230 --> 01:19:07.070 and it was you know it was damaged but it's not well that is still one of the 01:19:07.070 --> 01:19:08.590 least populated areas of the state, 01:19:09.350 --> 01:19:17.090 OK, and thankfully it veered off further east of Atlanta. It didn't actually go directly to Atlanta. 01:19:17.410 --> 01:19:21.850 I can't report, but I spoke to to Kathy and she told me that, 01:19:21.870 --> 01:19:24.150 yeah, they had a lot of down a mutual friend of ours. 01:19:24.150 --> 01:19:25.390 Who lives near it. 01:19:25.390 --> 01:19:28.970 So it's on is on the slack. Usually, I don't know. I don't think she listens 01:19:28.970 --> 01:19:31.330 to show, but she for some reason somehow got on the slack. 01:19:31.450 --> 01:19:35.050 I don't know. But anyway, but she she she said that, you know, 01:19:35.070 --> 01:19:38.330 they had they had power, you know, flicker in and out. 01:19:38.330 --> 01:19:43.650 They had a lot of trees fallen there was flooding that kind of stuff but but 01:19:43.650 --> 01:19:47.150 you know thankfully nothing more than that but but the power was still on even 01:19:47.150 --> 01:19:50.350 though it had flickered on and off several times during the evening so. 01:19:50.350 --> 01:19:53.630 Yeah but as usual with these things there's lots of places without power 01:19:53.630 --> 01:19:56.410 there's lots of places without internet lots of 01:19:56.410 --> 01:19:59.170 places where cell service is gone you know you 01:19:59.170 --> 01:20:03.510 you mentioned like the hurricane when you were younger where you couldn't get 01:20:03.510 --> 01:20:07.630 a a hold of your parents for weeks uh you know there there are lots of people 01:20:07.630 --> 01:20:12.790 that don't have communications right now at this very second and we'll see how 01:20:12.790 --> 01:20:16.610 long it takes it to to get everything restored currently right. 01:20:16.610 --> 01:20:19.790 Now based on the storm there is this really cool uh web website 01:20:19.790 --> 01:20:22.990 called poweroutage.us okay okay and 01:20:22.990 --> 01:20:28.930 it it shows uh it shows the details of a number of customers without power right 01:20:28.930 --> 01:20:33.790 now so florida has about 500 000 customers without power but the number one 01:20:33.790 --> 01:20:37.450 right now that got really hammered south carolina 1.1 million customers without 01:20:37.450 --> 01:20:39.810 power georgia has 800 000. 01:20:39.810 --> 01:20:44.150 And by the way south south carolina wasn't even one that like you know when 01:20:44.150 --> 01:20:49.010 you it's like this was in florida where's south carolina come in you know and 01:20:49.010 --> 01:20:53.850 yeah yeah you got west virginia tennessee illinois for god's sake yeah yeah. 01:20:53.850 --> 01:21:00.150 Because because the weather system like really went into Tennessee and you know, 01:21:00.150 --> 01:21:02.330 all, all of these places. It was crazy. 01:21:02.430 --> 01:21:07.390 I noticed, I noticed looking at this website, there's some power outages in 01:21:07.390 --> 01:21:09.690 California too, but I think they're probably unrelated. 01:21:11.070 --> 01:21:13.150 Yeah, I don't think that those are related. 01:21:13.970 --> 01:21:14.430 Yeah. 01:21:14.610 --> 01:21:18.730 Yeah. Those are not related. Yeah. So but but yeah, but you've got but you've 01:21:18.730 --> 01:21:23.550 got I mean, basically Florida out of, you know, isn't, you know, 01:21:23.550 --> 01:21:28.230 hell, Ohio had 250,000 people without power because of this. 01:21:28.230 --> 01:21:32.530 So Ohio has half the people out of power than Florida. 01:21:32.670 --> 01:21:37.290 Now, it's because it hit an area less population, but I will say also because 01:21:37.290 --> 01:21:42.730 of, you know, because of how power, you know, the resilience has been built 01:21:42.730 --> 01:21:46.990 into some of the electrical grid in Florida because we've been hit by so many storms. 01:21:47.190 --> 01:21:51.770 So, you know, so that also, that also is a factor. So, but anyway, 01:21:51.930 --> 01:21:53.610 that's my report. Hurricane. 01:21:54.050 --> 01:21:59.650 Okay, done with the hurricane. We'll take a break in just one second and then 01:21:59.650 --> 01:22:06.130 we will talk election and politics and all of that kind of stuff let's see which 01:22:06.130 --> 01:22:07.310 break am i supposed to play now, 01:22:09.190 --> 01:22:15.110 which one this one this one we will be back after this. 01:22:42.840 --> 01:22:49.960 In the box that you found upon my face. 01:22:52.620 --> 01:22:54.620 What? Bye. 01:22:58.400 --> 01:23:06.620 Okay, that's that. So before we get into other stuff, I will mention that while 01:23:06.620 --> 01:23:11.120 Yvonne was talking about the hurricane, we had a breaking news alert. 01:23:11.560 --> 01:23:15.960 That North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, who we talked about, 01:23:16.120 --> 01:23:21.240 he's the one who was posting on the porn site about being a black Nazi last 01:23:21.240 --> 01:23:26.760 week, has been hospitalized after an incident at a campaign event. 01:23:27.320 --> 01:23:33.080 There's not really a lot of detail on that. I've been looking while Yvonne was 01:23:33.080 --> 01:23:34.460 talking for news stories. 01:23:34.560 --> 01:23:38.160 There are a bunch of news stories on a bunch of sites. So this has been confirmed, 01:23:38.300 --> 01:23:44.240 but nobody's really got any detail yet as of the time that we are recording 01:23:44.240 --> 01:23:48.740 in terms of what the incident is, what his condition is, etc. 01:23:49.040 --> 01:23:50.800 But something happened. 01:23:51.320 --> 01:23:53.980 Oh, well, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. 01:23:56.540 --> 01:24:01.180 Yeah. So I don't know if he had like a health issue or somebody attacked him 01:24:01.180 --> 01:24:05.300 or like this is literally breaking news. By the time you listen to this, 01:24:05.360 --> 01:24:09.240 you'll know what's what happened and if it ended up being serious or not. 01:24:09.300 --> 01:24:11.660 Wait. Oh, treated for burns. 01:24:12.460 --> 01:24:14.460 What? Burns. 01:24:14.780 --> 01:24:15.220 Burns. 01:24:16.660 --> 01:24:20.840 He's currently being treated for burns after the incident. He's in good spirit. 01:24:21.440 --> 01:24:24.300 Did somebody throw some hot coffee on him or something? 01:24:24.660 --> 01:24:29.340 I don't know. Anyway, like, obviously, we don't know. By the time you listen 01:24:29.340 --> 01:24:31.000 to this, you'll probably know what happened. 01:24:31.220 --> 01:24:38.380 But and I guess he's going to recover. So but I don't know. Weird. Okay. 01:24:39.440 --> 01:24:45.980 So as usual, I will start with my election graphs update just to see where things are. 01:24:45.980 --> 01:24:51.240 And I will note at the moment that we are recording, there are like two or three 01:24:51.240 --> 01:24:58.200 polls that have come out in the last few hours that I have not had a chance to enter in yet. 01:24:58.240 --> 01:25:02.780 But I don't think there are anything that significantly changes the picture. 01:25:03.040 --> 01:25:09.100 And the picture is actually pretty damn static from where it's been the last 01:25:09.100 --> 01:25:14.340 few weeks. stakes, Harris's position is actually a little bit better than it 01:25:14.340 --> 01:25:17.440 was last time we talked, I think. Well, it depends on the metric. 01:25:17.540 --> 01:25:24.300 But look, the bottom line is we still have all of these damn states that are really, really close. 01:25:24.600 --> 01:25:31.440 And so the range of reasonable possibilities goes from a fairly healthy Trump 01:25:31.440 --> 01:25:34.520 win to a fairly healthy Harris win. 01:25:34.520 --> 01:25:39.680 Win you might even call it you might even call it landslides on each side although 01:25:39.680 --> 01:25:45.140 i landslide to me still means like ronald reagan style landslide landslide to. 01:25:45.140 --> 01:25:49.860 Me is like that harris vance poll that's uh that's out there at like plus 21. 01:25:49.860 --> 01:25:54.680 Yeah i i noted on the curmudgeon's corner slack right before we started recording 01:25:54.680 --> 01:25:58.640 that or a little bit before we started recording uh somebody actually 01:25:58.780 --> 01:26:03.300 polled Harris versus Vance instead of Harris versus Trump and Harris versus 01:26:03.300 --> 01:26:05.160 Trump was a head by a few percent. 01:26:05.200 --> 01:26:08.980 Harris versus Vance was a head by like 21%. 01:26:10.440 --> 01:26:17.680 It was crazy. But the bottom line is we still have, you know, all of these super, uh, 01:26:17.840 --> 01:26:24.140 close states in the polls. And I did want to make the distinction between like 01:26:24.140 --> 01:26:27.820 toss up, which is where we are. 01:26:27.920 --> 01:26:31.720 Like if you want to predict this as a toss up, you could get a Harris win. 01:26:31.860 --> 01:26:36.140 You could get a Trump win versus close. 01:26:37.040 --> 01:26:43.020 Like it's not necessarily predicting that the actual result on election night 01:26:43.020 --> 01:26:44.640 will be super, super close. 01:26:44.720 --> 01:26:47.420 It might be, it might be super, super close. 01:26:47.840 --> 01:26:49.000 It could be all over the place. 01:26:49.000 --> 01:26:51.700 It could be all over the place. Here's the thing. Like I said, 01:26:51.820 --> 01:26:58.240 it is not unreasonable to have, given what we know and given the uncertainty, 01:26:58.380 --> 01:27:00.660 especially in the damn Electoral College, 01:27:00.980 --> 01:27:08.900 where all of these close states, if you add them up, are a huge number of electoral votes. 01:27:09.520 --> 01:27:14.020 So we just don't know is the answer. 01:27:14.020 --> 01:27:19.220 It's not that, oh my God, this is going to be super, super close on election 01:27:19.220 --> 01:27:23.700 night and every single one of these states will be waiting days and weeks for 01:27:23.700 --> 01:27:24.780 the count and the recount. 01:27:25.080 --> 01:27:31.840 It might happen that way, but it also could easily happen that, hey, 01:27:32.140 --> 01:27:39.080 the polls are underestimating Harris systematically by 2% or 3%, 01:27:39.080 --> 01:27:41.700 in which case she wins by a landslide. 01:27:41.700 --> 01:27:47.460 Or they could be underestimating trump again by two or three percent in which 01:27:47.460 --> 01:27:52.420 case he wins by a damn healthy margin it's just it's not that it's necessarily 01:27:52.420 --> 01:27:58.240 this is going to be super super close it's just we don't know we like we do 01:27:58.240 --> 01:28:01.120 not have the precision of information no listen. 01:28:01.120 --> 01:28:05.240 I know that the the average is especially one of the things about the averages 01:28:05.240 --> 01:28:13.440 is that we have only been been tracking Harris versus Trump for really a relatively short time. Okay. 01:28:13.640 --> 01:28:15.940 It's been only a couple of months. Yeah. 01:28:16.560 --> 01:28:21.480 And that we've, this has really been, been tracked, but there is an interesting 01:28:21.480 --> 01:28:23.540 thing that I've seen about recent polling. 01:28:23.700 --> 01:28:24.300 Yes. 01:28:24.660 --> 01:28:31.200 It's the number of polls that show Harris ahead by five points or more in the national. 01:28:31.380 --> 01:28:37.480 There have been more. Well, and I will say this is important. 01:28:37.800 --> 01:28:40.320 Wait, wait, let me say this. This is important. 01:28:41.180 --> 01:28:42.660 Popular vote-wise... 01:28:43.350 --> 01:28:50.990 I think I would be shocked if Harris loses the popular vote like that one is not close. 01:28:51.150 --> 01:28:56.690 That one is not like margin of error. Like, but she's she's significantly had that. 01:28:56.850 --> 01:29:01.030 But the thing is, but beyond that, one of the things because we know that state 01:29:01.030 --> 01:29:04.070 polls always lagged the national polls. 01:29:04.070 --> 01:29:09.170 OK, and the one thing is that, look, the bigger the margin you have on the national 01:29:09.170 --> 01:29:13.430 polls, the likelier is that, you know, that you're going to be able to pull 01:29:13.430 --> 01:29:16.370 a number of states that are closer into into your orbit. 01:29:16.470 --> 01:29:20.730 It's just, you know, it's just we don't have the data yet because obviously it takes a lot longer. 01:29:20.830 --> 01:29:24.710 It's just it's just the fact that in in recent weeks, whereas in August, 01:29:24.890 --> 01:29:30.230 how many polls had her ahead by, you know, more than four points? it was like almost none. 01:29:30.230 --> 01:29:33.170 But like still if it's still if it's. 01:29:33.170 --> 01:29:35.370 Been a lot i mean it's not just. 01:29:35.370 --> 01:29:38.330 No there have been there's been a lot of them and we we talked 01:29:38.330 --> 01:29:41.270 last week too that like what the hell is 01:29:41.270 --> 01:29:46.750 like are the polling averages doing because like right now rcp oh sorry right 01:29:46.750 --> 01:29:53.210 now 538 has the polling average at harris plus 2.8 but if you look at the recent 01:29:53.210 --> 01:29:59.050 polls plus six plus six six 6 plus 2 plus 5 plus 7 plus 4, 5, 01:29:59.350 --> 01:30:02.490 5, 3, 3, 7, 3, 6, 6. 01:30:02.630 --> 01:30:04.890 How the hell do you get 2.8 out of that? 01:30:05.130 --> 01:30:08.530 Hell, is it 2.9? I don't know. I don't get it. But I mean, literally. 01:30:08.530 --> 01:30:14.510 All the polls, the majority of them are 5+. I know the answer to that, 01:30:14.610 --> 01:30:20.350 and they say it right there on their website, is it's not actually an average of those polls. 01:30:20.530 --> 01:30:25.950 They're factoring in some fundamentals. They're factoring in state polls as well. 01:30:26.150 --> 01:30:29.950 They're doing some nonsense with it, but it means it's not the average. 01:30:30.070 --> 01:30:37.510 Now, RCP theoretically is a straight average, but they still have Harris up by 2.0. 01:30:38.510 --> 01:30:42.910 The one that has moved much further away, because I know that Decision Desk 01:30:42.910 --> 01:30:46.650 with the Hill does do more of an average. 01:30:46.930 --> 01:30:49.390 They have Harris up to a 4.2. 01:30:49.830 --> 01:30:55.210 I looked into their methodology statement. They also do a lot of fundamentals just differently. 01:30:55.270 --> 01:30:59.770 Just differently. But they have Harris at the highest margin that she's had 01:30:59.770 --> 01:31:02.430 periods as we've been tracking this at four point two. 01:31:02.980 --> 01:31:10.060 If she has in in their average she has definitely opened up the the lead is the biggest it has been. 01:31:10.060 --> 01:31:12.960 Right so Biden dropped out what what 01:31:12.960 --> 01:31:16.860 I will say again is like I don't think there's any question in popular vote 01:31:16.860 --> 01:31:22.900 I I would be shocked if Harris loses the popular vote well I'm more talking 01:31:22.900 --> 01:31:31.180 and wait wait wait let me say like we're you and you talk about this the state polls lagging. 01:31:31.220 --> 01:31:33.860 And that's, that's true. 01:31:33.920 --> 01:31:37.800 That's less true now that we're in the home stretch in the last few weeks, 01:31:37.860 --> 01:31:46.460 because there, the volume of state polls in the, in the close states is now massive. 01:31:46.520 --> 01:31:50.880 Like with my five poll averages, most of my five poll averages at this point 01:31:50.880 --> 01:31:56.020 are only taken about a week of, of, of the last week of polls. 01:31:56.320 --> 01:32:02.300 Right. And the, the thing is, it's not that it's that there's a lot of, 01:32:02.340 --> 01:32:07.060 like, if I had to say, like, if I look at the whole race overall, 01:32:07.340 --> 01:32:12.360 what I would say is there's actually a bunch of, there's a, I'm looking at my 01:32:12.360 --> 01:32:16.880 tipping point graph and there's a lot of motion up and down in it, 01:32:16.900 --> 01:32:21.000 but I actually think most of that motion is not real. 01:32:21.100 --> 01:32:27.420 Most of that motion is just pollsters coming in and out, coming into the various states. 01:32:27.560 --> 01:32:32.480 And the real situation is that after we had that big move towards Harris, 01:32:32.640 --> 01:32:38.280 when she first started, since then, we've been really bouncing around in a range 01:32:38.280 --> 01:32:43.080 with Harris ahead between zero and 2%. 01:32:43.080 --> 01:32:46.620 But like, but it's just bouncing in that range. 01:32:46.840 --> 01:32:53.580 It's not like, I don't think there's real motion of that's been very significant. 01:32:54.790 --> 01:33:01.230 And that sort of ties in with what we're seeing in the national averages too, which is she's ahead. 01:33:01.570 --> 01:33:07.390 She's ahead by a decent margin, but at least in like, again, 01:33:07.470 --> 01:33:10.390 like 538 is doing some magic. I think you're absolutely right. 01:33:10.470 --> 01:33:14.450 She's increasing that margin nationally, but it's unclear to me, 01:33:14.570 --> 01:33:22.410 like, is she running up the score in blue states as opposed to making the moves 01:33:22.410 --> 01:33:23.950 that she needs in the swing states? 01:33:23.950 --> 01:33:31.190 Well, let's be clear, to be fair, those national polls aren't just also, 01:33:31.350 --> 01:33:39.870 they're trying to do in a national picture what, you know, what we're looking at state by state. Okay. 01:33:39.910 --> 01:33:41.970 Well, no, they're not just. No, they are. 01:33:41.970 --> 01:33:42.670 They're not just. 01:33:43.170 --> 01:33:48.890 There's differences. Like the national poll averages are trying to predict the 01:33:48.890 --> 01:33:53.770 popular vote, period, end of story. The forecasts that these sites build off 01:33:53.770 --> 01:33:55.670 them are trying to do the electoral college. 01:33:55.950 --> 01:33:59.610 But like that, when you look at national poll averages, no, they're, 01:33:59.610 --> 01:34:02.850 they're predicting popular vote. They are not predicting the election. 01:34:02.970 --> 01:34:07.310 I, I, well, well, I really, what happens. 01:34:07.430 --> 01:34:12.490 What happens though, is like, except in really close scenarios, 01:34:12.750 --> 01:34:17.870 those follow each other, you know, like you, we've, we've had, 01:34:17.890 --> 01:34:23.510 we've We've had two examples recently in our lifetimes where the popular vote 01:34:23.510 --> 01:34:27.410 in electoral college went different ways, but that's actually pretty rare. 01:34:27.630 --> 01:34:32.830 Like usually the winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college too. 01:34:32.970 --> 01:34:39.250 It's just that we've had a particular configuration recently where if the popular 01:34:39.250 --> 01:34:42.970 vote margin is less than a couple percent, it could go the other way. 01:34:43.700 --> 01:34:47.540 Well, you know, when they're trying to build these, you know, 01:34:47.540 --> 01:34:51.200 they're trying to find out who's going to win the election. OK, well, no, it's not just. 01:34:51.300 --> 01:34:52.540 No, no, no. 01:34:52.880 --> 01:34:53.620 That's a distinction. 01:34:53.620 --> 01:35:00.380 All of these places, 538, a DDHQ, all of these places, they have election models 01:35:00.380 --> 01:35:01.720 that try to do what you're doing. 01:35:01.780 --> 01:35:04.140 But that is not the poll average. 01:35:04.260 --> 01:35:07.560 The national poll average is the national poll average. It's popular. 01:35:07.640 --> 01:35:08.020 No, no, no. 01:35:08.040 --> 01:35:10.780 That's their model. Their model. No, no, no, no. 01:35:10.920 --> 01:35:13.920 No. No, I'm not talking about the national poll average. I'm talking about, 01:35:14.000 --> 01:35:20.680 say you're Bloomberg, you're doing state by state poll and you're doing a national poll. OK. 01:35:20.900 --> 01:35:25.600 All right. You're trying to model that to try to tell you who's going to win 01:35:25.600 --> 01:35:28.560 the election when they're even we're not doing a model. 01:35:28.720 --> 01:35:32.580 They're not doing it just, you know, they're not going and like, 01:35:32.700 --> 01:35:35.180 oh, let's just let's weigh in. 01:35:35.200 --> 01:35:39.980 No, the models that are built on top of the polls do what you're talking about. 01:35:39.980 --> 01:35:42.880 The national polls are looking for the popular 01:35:42.880 --> 01:35:45.760 vote end of story the the what the 01:35:45.760 --> 01:35:50.140 things that are trying to predict who wins are the models that are built off 01:35:50.140 --> 01:35:58.220 that like i like i i 5 30 no like a national poll is meant to predict the national 01:35:58.220 --> 01:36:04.780 popular vote end of story the model the electoral models these guys do something before like. 01:36:04.780 --> 01:36:11.120 20 years ago we basically we didn't do this shit with these fucking models and 01:36:11.120 --> 01:36:15.980 each state and any of this shit back then honestly we we only. 01:36:15.980 --> 01:36:18.740 Relied on these fucking that that's that's because 01:36:18.740 --> 01:36:23.220 that's because before before 2000 the 01:36:23.220 --> 01:36:27.840 last time the electoral college and the popular vote went in different directions 01:36:27.840 --> 01:36:35.320 was in the early 1800s so no one thought it was going to happen oh yeah so like 01:36:35.320 --> 01:36:39.140 the the reason we had this outburst of of, oh, crap, 01:36:39.340 --> 01:36:45.520 we have to pay attention state by state, is because of the year 2000 and then 2016. 01:36:46.340 --> 01:36:50.080 Both of those years are where they went other directions, and that's where people 01:36:50.080 --> 01:36:55.360 realized, hey, actually, we're in a universe where the popular vote winner can 01:36:55.360 --> 01:36:59.180 lose the electoral college, so we have to pay attention on a state by state basis. 01:36:59.640 --> 01:37:04.820 All right. So you're trying. I pulled up the methodology at a Bloomberg poll. 01:37:05.060 --> 01:37:05.540 Yeah. 01:37:05.540 --> 01:37:09.180 Okay. All right. Ah, Bob, Bob, Bob said it everywhere. 01:37:12.820 --> 01:37:16.600 Okay, that's not what this says. I could read the whole blurb. 01:37:16.620 --> 01:37:18.000 That's not what this says. 01:37:18.340 --> 01:37:19.260 Send me the URL. 01:37:19.420 --> 01:37:24.360 It says that they are trying to go. Our 2020 turnout forecasts are generated 01:37:24.360 --> 01:37:26.560 by a series of predictive models built in historic turnout. 01:37:26.560 --> 01:37:31.780 Wait, wait, wait, wait. That's not a poll. You just said it's a forecast model. That's different. 01:37:32.060 --> 01:37:37.060 No, no, no. This is the... No, this is the... Well, okay, this is the election 01:37:37.060 --> 01:37:38.360 model. Okay, you're right. 01:37:38.360 --> 01:37:38.500 Yeah, exactly. 01:37:38.740 --> 01:37:43.020 This is on the model. Hang on, hang on. Where is... OK, Bloomberg's national poll. 01:37:43.440 --> 01:37:47.020 Here we go. OK, sorry, because I did pull up the model. They have a whole they 01:37:47.020 --> 01:37:49.660 got too much shit going on over here. 01:37:49.660 --> 01:37:53.240 See, it's just that these are two different things. If you want to, 01:37:53.340 --> 01:37:59.000 where they are doing a forecast of the election, that's when you take into account 01:37:59.000 --> 01:37:59.900 the electoral structure. 01:38:00.180 --> 01:38:03.300 But if you're doing a national poll, you're doing a national poll. 01:38:03.400 --> 01:38:07.200 You're seeing where people are going to vote on a nationwide basis. 01:38:08.060 --> 01:38:12.860 And that's why, like, we don't usually want to pay attention to those national 01:38:12.860 --> 01:38:15.640 polls because they don't tell you who's going to win. 01:38:16.160 --> 01:38:19.400 Well, they tell you who's going to win the popular vote, but that doesn't matter. 01:38:19.660 --> 01:38:26.220 I mean, that's the whole reason all of these sites, including Bloomberg, have forecast models. 01:38:26.600 --> 01:38:30.980 Well, we went to the fucking forecast models because we really went out, 01:38:31.040 --> 01:38:34.720 you know, because of what's happened. But let's be clear about this. 01:38:34.860 --> 01:38:40.260 Most of those, okay, when you look at it, say, you know, for example, 01:38:40.440 --> 01:38:45.740 a couple of years ago, Hillary won the popular vote by 2%, 3%, 01:38:45.740 --> 01:38:46.640 whatever the heck it was. 01:38:46.900 --> 01:38:50.440 All those were within the margin of error. The reality is that when you're looking 01:38:50.440 --> 01:38:55.860 at, if you're looking at the margins that we've had, they've been between the plus minus four. 01:38:56.060 --> 01:38:59.820 The reality is what we talked about, you know, when you're looking at the national 01:38:59.820 --> 01:39:04.120 poll, is that any of those results, even if you look at the national poll, 01:39:04.200 --> 01:39:07.180 have been within the margin of error where one or the other. Yeah. 01:39:07.180 --> 01:39:13.240 Well, here's the thing. Like if, if current polling, like forget the weird five 01:39:13.240 --> 01:39:19.720 38 average that has hair at 2.8, if she's really at six or 7% nationally, 01:39:19.860 --> 01:39:25.980 then it, the chances of it going in a different direction than the electoral 01:39:25.980 --> 01:39:27.340 college are really small. 01:39:28.080 --> 01:39:34.440 Like if she's only at two and a half, 3%, the chances of it going the other direction are decent. 01:39:35.020 --> 01:39:35.540 Right. 01:39:35.620 --> 01:39:41.440 You know, so it really depends, like, you know, like, because really like it 01:39:41.440 --> 01:39:45.260 is only close selections where it could go the other way. 01:39:45.360 --> 01:39:51.780 And right now, the way the states are configured, it's really only 538 actually 01:39:51.780 --> 01:39:56.520 has a chart of like their simulations for their model that shows like, 01:39:56.620 --> 01:40:03.720 you can see what percentage of the time, you know, Republican wins the electoral college, 01:40:03.840 --> 01:40:07.900 but Democrat wins the popular vote and vice versa. 01:40:08.080 --> 01:40:14.140 But really the chances of the other way around of like Trump winning the popular 01:40:14.140 --> 01:40:18.840 vote, but losing the electoral college is tiny, tiny, tiny at the moment. 01:40:18.900 --> 01:40:19.240 Exactly. 01:40:19.240 --> 01:40:28.160 So the risk is a narrow popular vote win for Harris could fairly easily still 01:40:28.160 --> 01:40:33.060 end up with a electoral college win for Trump. Now, that's not automatic. 01:40:33.320 --> 01:40:38.520 It's not saying if the popular vote win is narrow, she will automatically lose. 01:40:38.800 --> 01:40:46.400 It is possible. It is realistically possible that you could have a situation 01:40:46.400 --> 01:40:52.660 where if Harris's national margin is only like, you know, say less than 3%, 01:40:53.240 --> 01:40:58.000 you could still get reasonable scenarios that lead to a Trump win in the electoral college. 01:40:58.920 --> 01:41:02.760 Okay. So, so my, my, my, my overall point though, 01:41:02.960 --> 01:41:08.120 we went off on major tangents there from my original point because, 01:41:08.300 --> 01:41:12.920 you know, we never do that here on this show, but that the overall summary of 01:41:12.920 --> 01:41:17.800 the situation is still that it's a toss-up. 01:41:18.060 --> 01:41:26.620 Within the skill that pollsters have, either outcome for the electoral college 01:41:26.620 --> 01:41:29.360 is reasonably possible. 01:41:29.700 --> 01:41:33.140 And like I said, that doesn't necessarily mean it's necessarily close. 01:41:33.500 --> 01:41:36.480 Harris could still win by a really healthy margin. 01:41:36.960 --> 01:41:40.880 It's just that we don't know based on the data we have right now. 01:41:40.980 --> 01:41:44.900 And then also like, you know, and this gets back to the whole, 01:41:45.000 --> 01:41:50.660 we've talked many times about all the reasons where we might think that this time around. 01:41:51.650 --> 01:41:56.750 Polls are underestimating the Democrat, and there's a lot you can convince yourself on that. 01:41:56.870 --> 01:42:00.350 But if you try hard, you can convince yourself the other direction, too. 01:42:00.490 --> 01:42:04.290 So we'll know when we know, you know, which way the polls are wrong. 01:42:04.630 --> 01:42:13.370 OK, by the way, the Reuters Ipsos poll specifically says that they are not trying to do what you said. 01:42:13.490 --> 01:42:17.970 As a matter of fact, it says the Reuters Ipsos poll is designed to be nationally representative. 01:42:17.970 --> 01:42:20.890 Representative this can limit utility in projecting the 01:42:20.890 --> 01:42:23.730 outcome of presidential elections but they don't mean they're not trying to do 01:42:23.730 --> 01:42:28.210 it it just can limit the utility okay it's specifically 01:42:28.210 --> 01:42:31.250 they just said what i said no no 01:42:31.250 --> 01:42:37.770 no no no no no no no no what they said is that it's not the most exact measure 01:42:37.770 --> 01:42:43.250 of it but it doesn't say that they're not they're trying to predict but they're 01:42:43.250 --> 01:42:50.030 The reason it's not exact is because they're predicting the popular vote. No, no, no. 01:42:50.370 --> 01:42:53.110 That's not what they said. As a matter of fact, you go back further. 01:42:53.150 --> 01:42:54.670 Send me the link. Send me the link right now. 01:42:54.670 --> 01:42:59.070 I'll send you the link so you can read it. They're not trying to model the fucking, 01:42:59.090 --> 01:43:02.890 they're trying to model what the fuck the outcome of the election is. 01:43:03.130 --> 01:43:08.710 Not the popular vote. They're modeling the outcome of the popular vote. 01:43:08.710 --> 01:43:14.250 Nationally representative sample by definition means they're looking at the 01:43:14.250 --> 01:43:18.790 popular vote if they wanted to model the outcome rather than the popular vote 01:43:18.790 --> 01:43:23.330 then they no no explicitly not do a popular no they do. 01:43:23.330 --> 01:43:28.310 Both but the thing is that they're saying you're saying again that this is. 01:43:28.310 --> 01:43:29.490 Indicative but. 01:43:29.490 --> 01:43:30.530 It's not the. 01:43:30.530 --> 01:43:35.370 Best predictor no no it's like it's like look it's like it's like Yvonne, 01:43:35.390 --> 01:43:39.930 Yvonne, by definition, if it's nationally representative, then it is not taking 01:43:39.930 --> 01:43:42.250 into account the structure of the Electoral College. 01:43:42.390 --> 01:43:49.690 You would have to intentionally bias it to give more weight to certain states than others. 01:43:49.770 --> 01:43:50.130 Yes. 01:43:50.170 --> 01:43:54.610 Which would make it not. If they do that, then it's not a representative sample nationwide. 01:43:55.090 --> 01:43:56.130 It represents. It's it's. 01:43:58.690 --> 01:44:00.550 You you have. 01:44:00.550 --> 01:44:05.610 You sent me the links yet i'm yes it's on general it's on general oh you can read. 01:44:05.610 --> 01:44:07.110 It later we could we could we could oh. 01:44:07.110 --> 01:44:11.710 No hell no i'm gonna read it right now oh god no way no way, 01:44:15.590 --> 01:44:16.470 are we. 01:44:16.470 --> 01:44:19.790 Gonna talk about are we gonna talk about the fact that the major of new york 01:44:19.790 --> 01:44:20.770 got indicted or something. 01:44:20.770 --> 01:44:24.170 No no wait why why 01:44:24.170 --> 01:44:27.230 is this because i'll continue without supporting us 01:44:27.230 --> 01:44:34.810 damn it okay blah blah blah projection of national opinion blah blah blah what 01:44:34.810 --> 01:44:40.650 about registered and likely blah blah blah further down i i is designed to be 01:44:40.650 --> 01:44:44.850 yeah this is exactly what you read the an important part. 01:44:45.090 --> 01:44:50.310 The Reuters-Ipsos poll is designed to be nationally representative. 01:44:50.650 --> 01:44:52.910 That means it's looking. 01:44:53.150 --> 01:44:57.330 It's representative of- It represents the nation of what the result is going 01:44:57.330 --> 01:44:59.090 to be. It's not that it's- No. 01:44:59.130 --> 01:45:02.210 It's representative of the national voting population. 01:45:02.330 --> 01:45:05.730 Then it specifically says the reason it limits 01:45:05.730 --> 01:45:08.810 its utility is because presidential elections are decided 01:45:08.810 --> 01:45:16.570 on a state by state basis this is they are not so it is it's by definition of 01:45:16.570 --> 01:45:21.230 the word nationally representative by definition means you're modeling the popular 01:45:21.230 --> 01:45:26.330 vote no yes no if you were modeling you're making. 01:45:26.330 --> 01:45:27.830 One massive leap. 01:45:27.830 --> 01:45:30.530 No if you were modeling the nationally representative. 01:45:30.530 --> 01:45:32.570 Means that you're trying to figure out what the hell the. 01:45:32.570 --> 01:45:33.010 Nation is. 01:45:33.010 --> 01:45:36.490 Going to do what they have like the president not fucking figure out what a 01:45:36.490 --> 01:45:38.970 damn meaningless number that has no meaning Eating. 01:45:39.290 --> 01:45:43.270 No, nationally representative means you are sampling the national population 01:45:43.270 --> 01:45:46.250 and you are trying to figure out what they will do. 01:45:46.390 --> 01:45:48.510 That gives you the popular vote. 01:45:48.690 --> 01:45:52.890 If you are, if you are, if you want to, if you want to predict, 01:45:53.030 --> 01:45:57.650 this is a prediction of the election outcome in terms of popular vote. 01:45:57.830 --> 01:46:03.650 It is specifically, they specifically say it's not, it limits the utility for 01:46:03.650 --> 01:46:06.150 the presidential election because it's state by state instead. 01:46:06.350 --> 01:46:09.730 If you want to predict the state by state, if you want to wait. 01:46:09.810 --> 01:46:14.730 Okay, these models by nature, subjective and pollsters take multiple factors 01:46:14.730 --> 01:46:17.690 into account by determining who to include, including respondents, 01:46:17.950 --> 01:46:21.330 self-reported level of enthusiasm to come over there and pass voting behavior. 01:46:21.530 --> 01:46:25.270 Like any attempt to predict future behavior, those models can have flaws that 01:46:25.270 --> 01:46:28.690 they're overestimate, underestimate, estimated group balance at the end. 01:46:28.790 --> 01:46:36.550 That's the standard way for determining, that applies to every poll forever. 01:46:36.630 --> 01:46:38.410 All right. Anyway, let's move on. Okay. 01:46:38.750 --> 01:46:44.410 Not until you admit you are completely wrong, Yvonne, then we will move on. 01:46:44.530 --> 01:46:51.650 We will continue this argument until you capitulate and admit that I am right 01:46:51.650 --> 01:46:56.410 about everything and you are always wrong about everything thing because you 01:46:56.410 --> 01:46:59.450 don't understand anything that. 01:46:59.450 --> 01:47:01.890 Sounds great okay there you go beautiful. 01:47:01.890 --> 01:47:10.850 Okay okay fine we can move on like fine fine just so long as you know i'm right okay. 01:47:10.850 --> 01:47:11.970 Can i ask a question. 01:47:11.970 --> 01:47:12.430 What is. 01:47:12.430 --> 01:47:13.890 The sane washing thing. 01:47:13.890 --> 01:47:19.370 Okay sane washing okay let me take a deep breath, 01:47:22.870 --> 01:47:25.610 okay uh sane washing is just the 01:47:25.610 --> 01:47:31.290 term that people have been using for what a lot of media has been doing for 01:47:31.290 --> 01:47:37.230 donald trump's speeches and such where and this depends on which media you're 01:47:37.230 --> 01:47:43.270 talking about of course but basically lately in a lot of of a lot of trump speeches 01:47:43.270 --> 01:47:44.790 a lot of trump Trump interviews, 01:47:44.950 --> 01:47:48.890 a lot of whatever he's been rambling incoherently a lot. 01:47:49.600 --> 01:47:52.540 And so he doesn't even know where the fuck he is. 01:47:52.840 --> 01:47:53.900 Right. Often. 01:47:54.400 --> 01:47:57.100 Regularly. I mean, this has happened every fucking week. I'm like, 01:47:57.100 --> 01:48:00.380 but now Sona, he thinks he's in Pennsylvania. 01:48:00.600 --> 01:48:03.840 He's in North Carolina. He thinks it's a Michigan. I'm like, what the fuck? 01:48:03.860 --> 01:48:08.440 I mean, but a lot of places, and this includes major media like Washington Post, 01:48:08.600 --> 01:48:09.620 New York Times, et cetera. 01:48:10.020 --> 01:48:13.700 What they try to do when they present an article about, hey, 01:48:13.720 --> 01:48:22.500 Donald Trump gave a speech is They try to figure out, what the hell did he really mean? 01:48:23.400 --> 01:48:28.780 Then they frame it around that rather than talk about he's being incoherent. 01:48:32.380 --> 01:48:35.880 Here's one example. Oh, man, can I remember it? 01:48:38.260 --> 01:48:42.660 The education one that we talked about the other day is an example. 01:48:42.660 --> 01:48:51.600 He was asked to talk about how do you solve child care, and his answer was all about tariffs, right? 01:48:52.000 --> 01:48:58.420 There was another case where he was asked some sort of economic question, 01:48:58.500 --> 01:49:03.980 and his answer to it was, we will deport millions of people. 01:49:05.080 --> 01:49:08.200 And that was his answer to the economic question. 01:49:08.200 --> 01:49:13.000 And so and but you get sometimes descriptions in the media of like, 01:49:13.100 --> 01:49:18.260 you know, Donald Trump presents an interesting economic plan, 01:49:18.460 --> 01:49:20.680 you know, and it's like the interest. 01:49:20.800 --> 01:49:23.880 Oh, my God, I've seen more than one of those. I mean, I'm like, 01:49:23.940 --> 01:49:25.660 what the fuck are you guys talking? 01:49:25.760 --> 01:49:33.000 You know, the crazy I do agree that one of the crazy things is is and I I actually 01:49:33.000 --> 01:49:39.280 believe that there is a large group of people that take this seriously. I mean, because it's not, 01:49:39.970 --> 01:49:43.790 You know, I know that people are saying it's sane washing, but I see all these 01:49:43.790 --> 01:49:48.930 business people literally like, you know, business executives saying, well, 01:49:49.110 --> 01:49:51.270 he said he's going to do this about 01:49:51.270 --> 01:49:55.650 the taxes and the tariffs and so forth and so on. And I am like, why? 01:49:55.810 --> 01:49:57.950 What the fuck are you guys talking about? 01:49:58.190 --> 01:50:04.590 I mean, there is no thing that he has ever said on day like today that is going 01:50:04.590 --> 01:50:07.830 to be what he's going to carry out in two months. Right. 01:50:07.930 --> 01:50:13.290 And I think this is the fundamental thing of sane washing is it's basically, 01:50:13.430 --> 01:50:19.030 you know, he's got, he spits out some sort of incoherent word salad. 01:50:19.470 --> 01:50:24.410 And then you have the reporters who are dealing with that, just trying really, 01:50:24.490 --> 01:50:30.270 really hard to translate that into something a serious politician who knew what 01:50:30.270 --> 01:50:33.070 they were talking about might say, and then 01:50:33.230 --> 01:50:38.310 evaluate it according to that, as opposed to what he actually said. 01:50:39.430 --> 01:50:47.050 And the criticism of this is if you only were paying attention to that, 01:50:48.090 --> 01:50:52.370 then you might get an impression of Donald Trump as, oh, he's making serious 01:50:52.370 --> 01:50:55.310 economic proposals, he's doing this, he's doing that. 01:50:55.830 --> 01:51:02.710 Whereas if you actually watched him or read an exact transcript of what he said 01:51:02.710 --> 01:51:06.850 you'd be like what what what's he what listen. 01:51:06.850 --> 01:51:11.410 Listen he's now hawking one hundred thousand dollar watches. 01:51:11.410 --> 01:51:12.590 Yes okay. 01:51:12.590 --> 01:51:16.810 Along with a cheaper version for 599 dollars. 01:51:16.810 --> 01:51:17.790 Right. 01:51:18.790 --> 01:51:19.850 I did place my order. 01:51:20.010 --> 01:51:24.210 Oh, of course. And there's new coins as well. 01:51:24.450 --> 01:51:25.290 Oh, there's new coins! 01:51:25.610 --> 01:51:26.670 There's new coins. 01:51:27.750 --> 01:51:33.330 I mean, Sam, you want to talk about sane washing? If any other candidate during 01:51:33.330 --> 01:51:41.230 this period of the election campaign had been hawking this many scams leading 01:51:41.230 --> 01:51:43.130 up to the election, I mean, 01:51:43.190 --> 01:51:48.790 the Republican Party would have thrown him out by now. 01:51:48.850 --> 01:51:55.170 Well, and also, all of these things are just potential— They're all scams! 01:51:55.710 --> 01:51:59.530 Well, they're scams, but they're potential vehicles for bribery and such, too. 01:51:59.930 --> 01:52:03.350 It's like where people don't actually expect to get the benefit. 01:52:03.430 --> 01:52:06.030 They just want a way to shovel money to Donald Trump. 01:52:06.030 --> 01:52:13.910 Listen, the most direct vehicle of bribery right now, DJT, to a guess, 100 percent. 01:52:14.530 --> 01:52:20.890 You want to fucking bribe Trump, pump up DJT stock. 01:52:21.250 --> 01:52:24.010 That's all you got to do. That's all you got to do. 01:52:24.250 --> 01:52:28.390 When you go in and you just shovel money in there, just buy, 01:52:28.550 --> 01:52:32.990 you know, announce that you bought 100, you know, whatever, millions of shares. 01:52:33.050 --> 01:52:35.850 Fuck it. you know and you're just 01:52:35.850 --> 01:52:42.870 shoveling money in his pocket i mean now i i you know speaking of djt i happen 01:52:42.870 --> 01:52:48.410 to think that you own it's thinking because yes yes i i'm accumulating a controlling 01:52:48.410 --> 01:52:53.910 position in djt as we speak i know it's that he he he, 01:52:55.060 --> 01:52:58.820 the as his odds of winning keep diminishing 01:52:58.820 --> 01:53:03.800 yes then the people that have been trying to funnel money by basically currying 01:53:03.800 --> 01:53:08.060 favor with him by buying djt are basically saying well i don't you know what 01:53:08.060 --> 01:53:12.580 maybe it's just up to shit i mean it's just tanking so i might as well flee 01:53:12.580 --> 01:53:16.320 too you know speaking speaking of odds. 01:53:16.320 --> 01:53:19.740 I just want to say i did i i forgot to include this on my election update. 01:53:20.220 --> 01:53:26.800 I currently give Harris odds between 50 and 60%. 01:53:26.800 --> 01:53:33.380 That's my range, somewhere between 50 and 60%. Election betting odds has it 01:53:33.380 --> 01:53:36.060 at 52, so right in that area too. 01:53:36.600 --> 01:53:43.020 And I think most of the people who are giving odds are in that ballpark. 01:53:43.140 --> 01:53:45.060 I think Nate Silver this time is an outlier. 01:53:45.320 --> 01:53:49.300 At least last time I looked, which was at least a week ago, He was actually 01:53:49.300 --> 01:53:54.380 still favoring Trump, but, you know, anyway, it's a toss up anyway. 01:53:54.520 --> 01:53:58.360 Sorry, you said something about odd. So I had to say that. 01:53:58.520 --> 01:54:03.560 No, but but but it's just that, you know, the the all of these people have all 01:54:03.560 --> 01:54:07.740 these methods of just funneling money to it to his pockets by either buying 01:54:07.740 --> 01:54:17.680 his NFTs or buying his trading cards or buying the the the damn watches or Bibles or whatever. 01:54:17.680 --> 01:54:23.460 Ever not jesus christ what i mean there is this cycle of being in the middle 01:54:23.460 --> 01:54:28.460 of a fucking election and then all of a sudden another ad that he's records 01:54:28.460 --> 01:54:36.620 where he's pawning you know he's trying to pawn off some other scam product okay and by the way i. 01:54:36.620 --> 01:54:41.460 Can almost guarantee you well from from what i've heard that hundred thousand 01:54:41.460 --> 01:54:47.720 dollar watch isn't really the quality you would expect from a $100,000 watch. 01:54:47.840 --> 01:54:51.720 Listen, I looked at that watch, okay? It's not worth $1,000. 01:54:51.980 --> 01:54:52.720 Okay? 01:54:54.060 --> 01:54:59.340 I mean, just from the pictures, it's, you know, I mean, you know, 01:55:01.060 --> 01:55:05.720 listen, I was last week with some people that were wearing some watches that were worth $100,000. 01:55:06.520 --> 01:55:07.640 Let me tell you something. 01:55:09.100 --> 01:55:12.640 Donald Trump's watch doesn't look like that one. 01:55:13.540 --> 01:55:17.000 No. Okay. So no, it's, they were. 01:55:17.000 --> 01:55:21.160 They were, they were picking the watches up at target and just rebranding them. 01:55:21.960 --> 01:55:26.600 I, I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, you know, although I think that they went 01:55:26.600 --> 01:55:32.840 to some, look, there are a number of, I, I, I, I can guarantee you that watch is made in China. Okay. 01:55:33.300 --> 01:55:36.780 But wait, what about, what about the massive tariffs on China? 01:55:37.260 --> 01:55:40.560 I mean, you know, what, what does that matter? I think I saw a lot of the Trump 01:55:40.560 --> 01:55:43.000 hats and benefit. They're all made in China too. Yeah. 01:55:43.160 --> 01:55:43.960 Yeah. Yeah, I, yes. 01:55:44.120 --> 01:55:48.380 Yeah, so, you know, like that fucking matters. But, you know, 01:55:48.440 --> 01:55:52.040 China does make a lot of knockoffs, okay? 01:55:52.140 --> 01:55:56.740 You know, I mean, you go over there, and they do make some decent ones, 01:55:56.800 --> 01:56:02.580 but it's just, you know, it is one shitty-looking watch. I mean... 01:56:02.580 --> 01:56:07.260 Real quick, we're over our target time, so I just want to blow through a couple 01:56:07.260 --> 01:56:09.240 things real quick just to get them mentioned on here. 01:56:09.900 --> 01:56:13.180 One, I had made a note, and this is just something to keep an eye out, 01:56:13.300 --> 01:56:20.380 for, but for the last few weeks, Vance has been a lot more visible than Trump himself is. 01:56:20.780 --> 01:56:23.260 You know, he's holding more events. 01:56:23.880 --> 01:56:28.300 He's on TV more. I mean, I'm not saying Trump has been absent entirely. 01:56:28.420 --> 01:56:31.400 He was for a few weeks after the first assassination attempt. 01:56:31.620 --> 01:56:36.400 He was, he like didn't come out for a little while, but Trump has been around, 01:56:36.560 --> 01:56:41.460 but it seems like Vance is out more and he's actually getting a little bit more 01:56:41.460 --> 01:56:46.240 attention because you know he says stupid stuff like trump says stupid stuff 01:56:46.240 --> 01:56:54.800 too but vance is getting negative attention for his comments more often it seems and so you gotta wonder a, 01:56:56.910 --> 01:57:02.610 How much of this is planned by Trump that he's like, he's actually holding back 01:57:02.610 --> 01:57:05.130 and not campaigning as much as he would otherwise? 01:57:05.290 --> 01:57:09.330 And also, is he getting pissed at Vance for getting more attention? I don't know. 01:57:09.710 --> 01:57:13.850 Oh, I'm sure he is. But also, look, let's say him. I mean, how is he going to 01:57:13.850 --> 01:57:18.590 be out there if he's recording all these fucking commercials for more grifts every fucking week? 01:57:18.710 --> 01:57:24.250 I mean, every Sam, every fucking week, there is a new commercial for some new grift. 01:57:24.430 --> 01:57:24.830 Yes. 01:57:24.830 --> 01:57:27.330 Whether it's the trading card or the watch or whatever. 01:57:27.650 --> 01:57:34.710 He has to get all this stuff in before he loses. 01:57:35.190 --> 01:57:39.230 Because then his value is going to go down. There's been a lot of speculation, too. 01:57:39.550 --> 01:57:44.130 We talked about how close this is. But there's been speculation that Trump's 01:57:44.130 --> 01:57:48.330 internal polling shows that he's losing. For sure. 01:57:48.670 --> 01:57:49.290 Oh, I'm sure. 01:57:49.610 --> 01:57:54.850 Listen. And that he is. And honestly, if I had to bet, I'm betting on Harris right now. 01:57:54.890 --> 01:58:00.170 The enthusiasm gap seems obvious, but like this, despite whatever polling numbers, 01:58:00.250 --> 01:58:03.510 because I also talked the other day about like the conservative pollsters have 01:58:03.510 --> 01:58:08.730 been out in force and they're like pushing the numbers up towards, but towards Trump. 01:58:08.770 --> 01:58:13.710 But listen, I even saw some Trafalgar polls showing Harris like I had certain 01:58:13.710 --> 01:58:17.390 things that I was like, and I was like, whoa, what the fuck? 01:58:17.930 --> 01:58:25.130 Yeah, there were a couple of those. but like i and so does trump is has trump 01:58:25.130 --> 01:58:30.250 gone into an oh crap i'm gonna lose so i might as well just grift as much as 01:58:30.250 --> 01:58:34.770 i can and then i mean how he talked about if he loses he wants to go live in 01:58:34.770 --> 01:58:36.870 venezuela you know he also. 01:58:36.870 --> 01:58:42.030 Said recently which i don't know if i believe that he said he if he lost he wasn't gonna run again. 01:58:42.030 --> 01:58:44.070 Yeah yeah by. 01:58:44.070 --> 01:58:47.810 The way curiously the new trump watches which are are available for pre-order. 01:58:47.810 --> 01:58:50.230 Later this fall are. 01:58:50.230 --> 01:58:55.210 Not being advertised as luxury type pieces, but rather as collectible items 01:58:55.210 --> 01:58:57.610 for individual enjoyment only. 01:59:00.500 --> 01:59:03.660 Okay uh oh the joy 01:59:03.660 --> 01:59:07.000 that i get from looking at my fake gold 01:59:07.000 --> 01:59:10.100 watch that has the words trump on it 01:59:10.100 --> 01:59:19.840 oh my god every day is just pure joy yes that has to be you know what kind of 01:59:19.840 --> 01:59:29.040 a fucking loser are you that would get this and say that they are getting individual enjoyment. 01:59:29.380 --> 01:59:34.120 My goodness. Well, look, especially for the $100,000 one, and we implied this 01:59:34.120 --> 01:59:41.060 before, but nobody who can spend $100,000 on that gives a crap about the watch at all. 01:59:41.200 --> 01:59:45.320 They just see this as a way to give him. They just want to give him money. 01:59:45.460 --> 01:59:46.180 Give Donald Trump $100,000. 01:59:46.240 --> 01:59:49.840 And get around any financial restrictions, anything like that. 01:59:49.840 --> 01:59:52.900 They probably will get the watch and then just once they get it, 01:59:52.920 --> 01:59:56.420 they'll toss it in the garbage or give it to the give it to the pool guy or 01:59:56.420 --> 01:59:59.360 whatever or something, you know, some, you know, here, here, here. 01:59:59.460 --> 02:00:00.720 They don't want the damn watch. 02:00:00.940 --> 02:00:02.840 I'm not wearing this piece of shit. 02:00:04.240 --> 02:00:08.480 Now, of course, all of these two, though, I don't know specifically about the 02:00:08.480 --> 02:00:13.780 watch, but these are all licensing deals like, you know, so it's it's also like 02:00:13.780 --> 02:00:17.660 Trump probably has his money up front anyway from the licensing. 02:00:17.700 --> 02:00:19.600 Yes. So, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. 02:00:19.840 --> 02:00:22.740 So he's not necessarily like getting a certain percentage. 02:00:22.740 --> 02:00:26.680 He probably gets it up from pain and then gets a percentage. 02:00:26.760 --> 02:00:28.780 Yeah. I'm sure he does. I'm sure he does. 02:00:28.980 --> 02:00:31.160 Otherwise that way he put, he goes and he hawks them. 02:00:31.500 --> 02:00:37.680 Okay. A note. The waltz Vance debate is coming up on October 1st. 02:00:37.680 --> 02:00:39.720 That's a two next this coming Tuesday. 02:00:40.340 --> 02:00:44.840 So keep keeping a watch out for that. It'll be fun. I'm sure. 02:00:45.220 --> 02:00:48.820 I'm not entirely sarcastic. I want to see those two go up against each other. 02:00:48.820 --> 02:00:51.020 It should be an interesting thing. 02:00:51.120 --> 02:00:56.900 I think Walsh will probably kick Vance's ass as much as Harris kicked Trump's 02:00:56.900 --> 02:00:59.060 ass. That's my prediction right now. 02:00:59.220 --> 02:01:00.320 I mean, I agree. 02:01:01.100 --> 02:01:04.920 Uh, we'll, we'll see, but that's my prediction also. Oh, and we, 02:01:04.940 --> 02:01:09.680 since we were talking Vance, I can't, the Vance dossier that was apparently 02:01:09.680 --> 02:01:14.560 hacked by the Iranians and they've been trying to hawk to all kinds of journalists, 02:01:14.620 --> 02:01:15.840 but nobody has been publishing. 02:01:15.880 --> 02:01:19.440 It was finally published by somebody a couple of days ago. 02:01:19.840 --> 02:01:23.840 I wanted to get the cliff notes. I haven't seen anybody do like the cliff notes. 02:01:24.020 --> 02:01:27.980 So, so actually the guy, the guy who published it gave a really high level. 02:01:29.420 --> 02:01:34.060 Basically it it just the the reason that 02:01:34.060 --> 02:01:37.300 none of the major news 02:01:37.300 --> 02:01:42.460 companies are have not published it before one is of course they're like hey 02:01:42.460 --> 02:01:45.580 we were fooled by all this stuff against clinton we're not going to be fooled 02:01:45.580 --> 02:01:51.380 again which is a little unfair but still um but but i get it yeah but it's when 02:01:51.380 --> 02:01:55.400 you when you look at there's nothing really all that newsworthy in here It has, 02:01:55.460 --> 02:02:00.040 it's like a standard oppo research from what I read of things that are public anyway. 02:02:00.420 --> 02:02:05.820 So like it's got a list of all the times Vance said Trump was stupid or an idiot or whatever. 02:02:05.880 --> 02:02:06.720 Which we knew about. 02:02:06.800 --> 02:02:13.040 Which we knew they've got a number of places where Vance was involved in one 02:02:13.040 --> 02:02:14.760 thing or another that might be embarrassing. 02:02:15.140 --> 02:02:18.600 And I mean, none of them are even as good as the couch thing, you know? 02:02:18.600 --> 02:02:21.960 So, you know, yeah 02:02:21.960 --> 02:02:25.020 so like it's basically all normal stuff 02:02:25.020 --> 02:02:28.000 there's no smoking gun that says like oh my 02:02:28.000 --> 02:02:32.260 god vance was doing this thing that we had no idea about that's going to completely 02:02:32.260 --> 02:02:36.360 change the campaign there's nothing like that now of course when they were going 02:02:36.360 --> 02:02:40.600 over the stolen clinton stuff they were talking about like podesta's risotto 02:02:40.600 --> 02:02:46.400 recipe and crap like that so that that wasn't particularly newsworthy either, 02:02:47.020 --> 02:02:52.080 but they still were having an hour a day talking about the new revelations. 02:02:52.080 --> 02:02:54.640 Yeah, but I was... 02:02:55.150 --> 02:03:00.930 I never understood why anybody cared about those kind of innocuous emails, 02:03:01.130 --> 02:03:02.610 but whatever. Anyway, all right. 02:03:02.650 --> 02:03:09.890 And then the other thing is that special counsel did submit his 180-page document to Judge Chunkin. 02:03:10.010 --> 02:03:13.290 Chunkin? Is that how you say Chunkin? Chunkin? I don't know. 02:03:14.970 --> 02:03:16.490 I'll butcher the name. 02:03:16.530 --> 02:03:23.670 The judge. The judge in the January 6th case out of D.C., apparently the earliest 02:03:23.670 --> 02:03:29.730 possible that we could see redacted versions of that filing are also next Tuesday. 02:03:30.010 --> 02:03:36.350 But there are chances that it'll be longer because the Trump people have until 02:03:36.350 --> 02:03:40.850 Tuesday to file their objections to a redacted version coming out. 02:03:41.770 --> 02:03:45.150 And so depending on what you 02:03:45.150 --> 02:03:48.130 know the judge may take more time to decide on that the judge 02:03:48.130 --> 02:03:53.610 may the judge may decide not to release redacted versions and apparently she's 02:03:53.610 --> 02:03:58.270 making separate decisions on the main document and the appendices the appendices 02:03:58.270 --> 02:04:02.710 are all where a whole bunch of goodies are in terms of actual witness testimony 02:04:02.710 --> 02:04:06.930 and stuff like that so it's possible we'll get redacted views of some of this. 02:04:07.030 --> 02:04:12.470 It's possible that we won't until after the election or even until some eventual 02:04:12.470 --> 02:04:15.030 trial in 2028 or something. 02:04:16.490 --> 02:04:22.010 My expectation is like a lot of people have been sort of holding their breath 02:04:22.010 --> 02:04:26.250 and saying, this is the one thing we might get before the election is this document. 02:04:26.430 --> 02:04:32.270 My prediction is even if we get a redacted version, it's not going to have Some 02:04:32.270 --> 02:04:34.870 massive new revelations that change anything. 02:04:35.370 --> 02:04:38.670 It's going to be more of the same kind of stuff we already know, 02:04:38.750 --> 02:04:40.690 and it's not going to change anybody's mind on anything. 02:04:42.370 --> 02:04:46.870 By the way, two tidbits before we forget, Fed cut interest rates. 02:04:46.970 --> 02:04:47.250 Oh, yeah. 02:04:47.310 --> 02:04:49.150 And inflation came in lower than expected. 02:04:51.260 --> 02:04:55.280 Yes absolutely oh and update we do now oh. 02:04:55.280 --> 02:04:58.540 Wait number three the economy in the second quarter grew faster than. 02:04:58.540 --> 02:05:02.580 And and there were decent inflation numbers too i think yeah yeah. 02:05:02.580 --> 02:05:04.160 That was what i said inflation came in below. 02:05:04.160 --> 02:05:08.920 Okay we are wrapping up but we do now know what happened to mark robinson i 02:05:08.920 --> 02:05:14.660 have the update okay what happened uh this is mark robinson attended a truck 02:05:14.660 --> 02:05:17.280 show in Mount Airy, North Carolina tonight. 02:05:17.500 --> 02:05:23.140 He burned his hand leaning against a truck and was taken to the hospital. 02:05:23.800 --> 02:05:27.960 An official source says he is fine and home now. Oh, 02:05:29.980 --> 02:05:34.600 well, so yeah, it's not somebody through scalding water on him. 02:05:34.740 --> 02:05:37.540 It wasn't some attack. It was an. 02:05:37.560 --> 02:05:42.080 Those truck events are crazy. I just saw a news story related to some guy that 02:05:42.080 --> 02:05:46.140 went into a rage and just Not a monster truck, but close to it. 02:05:46.200 --> 02:05:50.680 Then basically, I mean, he was arrested because he tried to run over about six people. 02:05:50.860 --> 02:05:54.720 But the guard did run over a couple of cars and people had to run and flee from 02:05:54.720 --> 02:05:56.360 being run over. So, okay. 02:05:56.560 --> 02:06:02.700 Yeah. So, but yeah, he just leaned on a hot part of a truck and burnt his hand. That's, that's all. 02:06:04.340 --> 02:06:09.900 Okay. And you mentioned Mayor Adams was indicted for all sorts of corruption in New York. 02:06:10.320 --> 02:06:12.980 And it may not be over yet. There may be more to come. 02:06:14.180 --> 02:06:19.840 So, okay. With that, the stuff to end the show, go to curmudgeons-corner.com. 02:06:20.420 --> 02:06:24.680 You can find all the ways to contact us. You can find our archives, 02:06:24.920 --> 02:06:29.780 including transcripts in the last year or so. You can find a link to our YouTube. 02:06:30.460 --> 02:06:34.040 What else? And a link to our Patreon where you can give us money. 02:06:34.680 --> 02:06:39.200 And at $2 a month or more, at Patreon, you can get at various levels or all 02:06:39.200 --> 02:06:40.980 kinds of stuff. We'll mention you on the show. 02:06:41.560 --> 02:06:43.900 We'll send you a postcard. We'll send you a mug. We'll blah, 02:06:43.940 --> 02:06:45.220 blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:06:45.300 --> 02:06:48.760 At $2 a month or more. Or if you just ask us, we'll invite you to the curmudgeon's 02:06:48.760 --> 02:06:54.320 corner slack where Yvonne and I and others are chatting throughout the week, 02:06:54.360 --> 02:06:57.560 sharing news links, sharing funny links, sharing whatever. 02:06:58.100 --> 02:07:01.100 So Yvonne, do you have something to highlight from the curmudgeon's corner slack? 02:07:01.640 --> 02:07:03.260 Well, something you just posted. 02:07:04.030 --> 02:07:08.690 Childless congressional candidate in Virginia borrows his friend's family, 02:07:08.990 --> 02:07:12.750 his friend's wife and children for campaign photo op. 02:07:13.470 --> 02:07:13.670 Yeah. 02:07:13.770 --> 02:07:18.370 What do you think? That if he won, what, they're going to find out this wasn't 02:07:18.370 --> 02:07:20.990 his fucking family? What the fuck is this? 02:07:21.310 --> 02:07:22.630 Well, apparently he said. 02:07:23.010 --> 02:07:26.990 You know, I just want to be surrounded by some nice looking people. 02:07:27.250 --> 02:07:32.710 Well, yeah, essentially. and and look honestly the thing is it makes it look 02:07:32.710 --> 02:07:37.470 like it's his family like like right you know my my that. 02:07:37.470 --> 02:07:44.450 Picture is fed to the sea that's not just me sitting with some random people hey whatever no. 02:07:44.450 --> 02:07:48.250 Yeah because because like look my wife on her campaign stuff there there is 02:07:48.250 --> 02:07:52.530 a picture with me and the family but there are also pictures with her with other 02:07:52.530 --> 02:07:55.730 random people right like so So, okay, 02:07:55.830 --> 02:08:00.290 you can have campaign pictures with random people in it. That's a thing. That's not a big deal. 02:08:00.370 --> 02:08:06.990 But this picture is posed so it looks like this is my family. And it's not his family. 02:08:07.510 --> 02:08:09.710 It's his friend's wife and kids. 02:08:10.630 --> 02:08:16.290 And apparently he does have a fiancee, it says, but they don't have a family yet. 02:08:16.370 --> 02:08:19.150 And apparently he didn't want to be in a picture with his fiancee, 02:08:19.150 --> 02:08:21.490 I guess. I don't know. But, like, yeah. 02:08:21.570 --> 02:08:25.750 That's bizarre. bizarre i mean i'm like i mean the right thing would have been 02:08:25.750 --> 02:08:27.010 to just pose with his fucking, 02:08:27.510 --> 02:08:32.410 fiancee i mean what the hell hey we just brand them kids hey come on i mean 02:08:32.410 --> 02:08:36.570 might as well just gonna fucking photoshop them but it was a brand of i mean 02:08:36.570 --> 02:08:40.410 funnier would have been right if he had done an ai generated image of him in 02:08:40.410 --> 02:08:41.710 a fake family there you go. 02:08:41.710 --> 02:08:47.690 So just to note as well this is his opponent in this race is uh eugene vinman 02:08:47.690 --> 02:08:49.650 you know if you remember the. 02:08:49.650 --> 02:08:51.410 Vinman brothers yes Yes, yes, yes. 02:08:51.550 --> 02:08:57.410 So, uh, Eugene is not the one who's been on TV the most and the key player was 02:08:57.410 --> 02:09:01.570 his brother, but, but Eugene Vindman is his brother and he's running, 02:09:01.590 --> 02:09:03.730 it's at Virginia's seventh district. 02:09:04.070 --> 02:09:07.770 And so, yeah. So yeah. Anyway. 02:09:08.670 --> 02:09:14.610 I don't know. There you go. And we are done. Thanks, everybody. Have a great week. 02:09:14.970 --> 02:09:20.910 Have fun. Stay safe. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:09:20.990 --> 02:09:23.930 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:09:23.970 --> 02:09:25.210 Blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:09:25.390 --> 02:09:28.690 Blah, blah, blah. I already sang at the beginning. I'm not singing again. 02:09:28.870 --> 02:09:33.670 Yeah. And, and, and, and so, yeah, as we're recording this, let's see, 02:09:33.690 --> 02:09:34.750 how many days do we have left? 02:09:36.210 --> 02:09:40.390 38.8 days left until the first election results start coming out, 02:09:40.450 --> 02:09:44.710 except for Dixville notch or whatever that comes in like a few hours before that. 02:09:45.250 --> 02:09:47.710 So we're running out of time. By the time you listen to this, 02:09:47.730 --> 02:09:49.990 it'll probably be a day less than that. Like, 02:09:52.330 --> 02:09:57.630 not much time left, you know, one way or another, This whole thing will be done. 02:09:57.950 --> 02:10:03.970 And then, or, or it could be, it could be like 2020 where we have weeks until 02:10:03.970 --> 02:10:05.330 we have election results. 02:10:05.450 --> 02:10:08.790 And then we have people fighting on January 6th at the Capitol, 02:10:08.950 --> 02:10:11.790 you know, who the hell knows and all kinds of lawsuits. 02:10:11.950 --> 02:10:18.730 But hopefully we actually, hopefully we have a clear Harris win like on election 02:10:18.730 --> 02:10:20.790 night. That would be nice, right? 02:10:22.630 --> 02:10:24.950 Well, we didn't have one with Biden clear. 02:10:24.990 --> 02:10:27.850 I know, I know it took like a week. i'm hoping 02:10:27.850 --> 02:10:31.030 like like but if it actually ends 02:10:31.030 --> 02:10:34.790 up close that allows all kinds of shenanigans to 02:10:34.790 --> 02:10:37.450 happen no i know i don't want it to be close i want the 02:10:37.450 --> 02:10:44.670 clear win i mean i i want to be hearing that harris is winning florida by like 02:10:44.670 --> 02:10:50.170 9 p.m on election night you know because then if that's happening it's a blowout 02:10:50.170 --> 02:10:55.170 okay it's all it's all yeah yeah yeah so anyway now i'm not like betting on 02:10:55.170 --> 02:10:57.310 that but i'm hoping but that. 02:10:57.310 --> 02:10:58.190 Would be nice to hear. 02:10:58.190 --> 02:11:03.570 Okay we are done thank you everybody i said that already yeah here's the outro 02:11:03.570 --> 02:11:07.150 music enjoy oh say goodbye yvonne bye bye Bye. 02:11:37.490 --> 02:11:39.950 Thank you. Okay, that's it. I'm hitting stop.