WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:02.710 It says it's doing something here we go here 00:00:02.710 --> 00:00:05.350 we go here we go excellent connection and it 00:00:05.350 --> 00:00:12.330 says we're live no picture yet but i'm at oh there we go there we go yay and 00:00:12.330 --> 00:00:20.070 then i'm gonna do the little thingy bop to make sure do wop do do do do wop 00:00:20.070 --> 00:00:24.850 do what do do wop we're those handsome idiot Idiot Kids. 00:00:25.110 --> 00:00:27.310 Whatever, yeah. Oh, okay. 00:00:27.450 --> 00:00:34.210 I like Idiot Kids. They did a new version of that song just last year, within the last year. 00:00:34.270 --> 00:00:35.310 I think I heard about that. 00:00:35.310 --> 00:00:38.590 It was like Mbop version two or something. 00:00:39.230 --> 00:00:43.970 I mean, with these kids that, what, they're like, what, 50 years old now? 00:00:44.590 --> 00:00:48.590 Yeah, they're like our age. I don't know. Now you have to, you are required 00:00:48.590 --> 00:00:50.510 to look it up now that you've invoked it. 00:00:50.650 --> 00:00:52.790 Fuck. Jesus Christ. 00:00:52.790 --> 00:00:58.570 While the announcement goes out that we are live, it takes a minute. 00:01:00.150 --> 00:01:02.350 How old are the Mbop kids? 00:01:03.250 --> 00:01:04.770 I just, okay. 00:01:05.630 --> 00:01:11.210 I used to always, with our collective friend Rebecca, I used to make fun of 00:01:11.210 --> 00:01:12.190 her and say they were girls. 00:01:12.890 --> 00:01:16.190 Because they had long hair. But they're not. 00:01:17.130 --> 00:01:19.290 That's a... God. God. 00:01:20.080 --> 00:01:29.040 Let's see here. Uh, songwriter. Uh, this is about the song. We're come on. Where the fuck? 00:01:29.500 --> 00:01:31.160 They were like brothers, weren't they? 00:01:31.620 --> 00:01:32.940 I think so. 00:01:33.160 --> 00:01:35.460 It's like three brothers. I can't. 00:01:35.460 --> 00:01:41.840 Here we go. Hans. Isaac Hanson, Taylor Hanson, Zach Hanson. Yeah. Okay. 00:01:42.740 --> 00:01:44.300 Uh, come on. You. 00:01:45.300 --> 00:01:48.860 Well, no, he's not. No, they're younger. Taylor Hanson's 41. 00:01:49.420 --> 00:01:57.300 Okay. apple oh that's close enough yeah i mean it's not it's not like they're 25 and. 00:01:57.300 --> 00:02:03.980 The and the beginning of this is why i never go to karaoke with my wife amongst other reasons. 00:02:03.980 --> 00:02:09.180 Let's see one of them was born in 80 the other one 83 and the other one 85 so 00:02:09.180 --> 00:02:15.440 the one born in 80 would be i guess the oldest one yeah duh good. 00:02:15.440 --> 00:02:17.480 Job good job. 00:02:17.480 --> 00:02:20.860 Oh yeah great analysis the analysis 00:02:20.860 --> 00:02:23.840 is going you know 00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.620 hard and fast here folks let me 00:02:26.620 --> 00:02:34.780 tell you whoa getting getting impressive information at least 44 well not yet 00:02:34.780 --> 00:02:44.420 so the other was 41 i guess the other one's 39 so we're like early 40s so yeah so so should. 00:02:44.420 --> 00:02:46.300 Should should we start. 00:02:46.300 --> 00:02:49.360 Yeah this actual show yeah thing yeah whatever. 00:02:49.360 --> 00:02:58.140 Thing three ah yeah that okay uh yeah if we flip over to here flip over to here 00:02:58.140 --> 00:03:01.240 flip over to here and intro. Go! 00:03:25.390 --> 00:03:30.750 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, August 17th, 2024. 00:03:32.070 --> 00:03:35.670 It's 2.41 UTC as we're starting to record the show. 00:03:36.230 --> 00:03:39.590 I'm Sam Mentor. Did I say that? And here's Yvonne Bowe. Hi. 00:03:39.930 --> 00:03:44.890 Yvonne Bowe is back after like, you know, a multi-decade absence. So here we go. 00:03:44.950 --> 00:03:45.450 Multi-decade. 00:03:45.450 --> 00:03:45.810 Welcome back. 00:03:45.930 --> 00:03:48.650 Yes. I am now 70 years old. 00:03:49.190 --> 00:03:50.910 Yes, exactly. It's been. 00:03:51.090 --> 00:03:51.690 That's what happened. 00:03:51.690 --> 00:03:57.650 Happened there was a cryo chamber involved in some way like your your head was 00:03:57.650 --> 00:04:00.490 frozen in a jar and and and. 00:04:00.490 --> 00:04:02.250 And we're we're in space. 00:04:02.250 --> 00:04:06.110 Space yes we're. 00:04:06.110 --> 00:04:09.110 Doing this from the space station orbiting the moon right. 00:04:09.110 --> 00:04:16.030 Yes that the the moon space station yes yeah that's that's where we are so anyway 00:04:16.030 --> 00:04:21.430 we're gonna do our usual which is we'll have a but first section where we talk about at whatever. 00:04:21.810 --> 00:04:26.830 And then we'll have more serious news sections. One generally driven by Yvonne 00:04:26.830 --> 00:04:29.050 and one generally driven by me. That's the plan. 00:04:29.450 --> 00:04:33.330 I will start out before I even get to my real, but first, which of course I 00:04:33.330 --> 00:04:39.950 have a movie, but is that I said right before we, we hit the theme song and started, 00:04:40.070 --> 00:04:45.910 I said that what you heard of my rendition of Mbop was one of the reasons why 00:04:45.910 --> 00:04:50.130 I do not go to karaoke with my wife, but I will mention the other her, 00:04:50.900 --> 00:04:55.600 Reason. Well, one of many other reasons, but another reason I do not go to karaoke 00:04:55.600 --> 00:04:58.120 with my wife is last weekend. 00:04:58.760 --> 00:05:04.180 My wife indeed went to karaoke. And what did she bring home for the whole family? 00:05:05.060 --> 00:05:09.720 Tequila COVID. Oh, well, okay. Well, that's something. 00:05:09.820 --> 00:05:15.380 So she, she got COVID at the stupid karaoke and she. 00:05:15.480 --> 00:05:16.800 Oh, but come on. 00:05:16.840 --> 00:05:17.800 She had it. 00:05:17.900 --> 00:05:18.700 Karaoke too. 00:05:19.040 --> 00:05:22.300 And she had, And now we have it all. 00:05:24.460 --> 00:05:29.060 First of all, there's been COVID going around a lot. Okay. 00:05:29.480 --> 00:05:34.660 I mean, we have our listener, Bob, who said his wife got karaoke. I mean, karaoke. 00:05:34.860 --> 00:05:39.700 He caught karaoke. Yes. She caught karaoke. It was a horrible. 00:05:40.240 --> 00:05:43.980 I mean, all of a sudden she came home and just started singing. 00:05:44.620 --> 00:05:47.540 And then he saw, you know, it's just one of those things. Yes. 00:05:47.840 --> 00:05:49.220 It's a terrible disease. 00:05:49.840 --> 00:05:55.740 No she got covid and i'm sure she wasn't at a karaoke bar i'm gonna i'm gonna 00:05:55.740 --> 00:05:58.400 i'm gonna put my money on that one so i. 00:05:58.400 --> 00:06:01.140 I i like to blame it in general there are 00:06:01.140 --> 00:06:05.760 a couple things first of all first of all any crowded event it was a crowded 00:06:05.760 --> 00:06:10.080 event with a bunch of our friends in like nobody taking any precautions of course 00:06:10.080 --> 00:06:15.780 and then also as has been shown way back when when covid was the thing and we 00:06:15.780 --> 00:06:16.940 were all excited about it and 00:06:16.940 --> 00:06:20.740 talking about it every week excited yes excited I didn't, it was, it was. 00:06:20.740 --> 00:06:23.440 We were probably despondent. I don't know. 00:06:23.440 --> 00:06:31.040 Well, you know, the, one of the key events that started to show that in fact 00:06:31.040 --> 00:06:36.040 it was airborne and not through droplets or whatever was the singing. 00:06:36.760 --> 00:06:42.520 There was a choir event that where there was a massive spread and the, 00:06:42.620 --> 00:06:50.900 just in general singing events are, you know, One of the things that can, 00:06:51.240 --> 00:06:56.380 yeah, make it go boom. Make it go boom. 00:06:56.380 --> 00:06:57.020 Boom, bop. 00:06:57.900 --> 00:07:01.940 Do-de-wee-bop-bop, boom. Yes. Anyway, no. 00:07:03.140 --> 00:07:08.200 And look, this is one of the things where I had been seeing for weeks and weeks 00:07:08.200 --> 00:07:15.100 and weeks the handful of people who still bother and give a shit and post things about COVID that, 00:07:15.600 --> 00:07:21.140 posting about how like wastewater levels of COVID in places that still monitor 00:07:21.140 --> 00:07:27.820 it are the highest they've been in over a year and are super high levels and 00:07:27.820 --> 00:07:31.840 test positivity levels where they are still reported, 00:07:32.040 --> 00:07:34.520 which is very few places are also through the roof. 00:07:34.660 --> 00:07:40.900 And in basically most of the country is in a really hot COVID wave right now. All right. 00:07:40.940 --> 00:07:44.760 And, you know, but, but, but, but, but, but, but look. Yeah. 00:07:45.600 --> 00:07:50.740 You don't sound, you have COVID. Listen, I know you guys have been like us, 00:07:50.760 --> 00:07:53.120 that we've been like every booster. 00:07:53.900 --> 00:07:54.380 Yes. 00:07:54.680 --> 00:07:55.460 That's come out. 00:07:55.640 --> 00:08:01.320 Well, here, let me tell you, I tested positive for the first time about 24 hours 00:08:01.320 --> 00:08:02.920 ago as we're recording this. 00:08:03.080 --> 00:08:04.220 And I say, you don't sound bad. 00:08:04.460 --> 00:08:10.100 And at the moment I tested positive, I hadn't even noticed that I had any symptoms. 00:08:10.220 --> 00:08:12.180 I was like, I don't have any symptoms. 00:08:12.580 --> 00:08:19.600 Systems. And then my, my son tested first, like, cause we, we made him go to 00:08:19.600 --> 00:08:20.400 a therapist appointment. 00:08:20.520 --> 00:08:25.300 We, we, we had checked our COVID tests. We had checked COVID tests Wednesday, 00:08:26.640 --> 00:08:29.520 evening. Cause we knew my wife had it and she'd been isolating. 00:08:29.740 --> 00:08:33.740 She'd been staying in her room, door closed, blah, blah, blah, mostly closed. 00:08:34.300 --> 00:08:38.480 And like, and when I had to go into the room, she was in, I wore a mask and 00:08:38.480 --> 00:08:39.740 blah, blah, blah. So she'd been isolated. 00:08:40.460 --> 00:08:46.080 And, but we were trying to decide whether to take my son to his weekly therapist 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:47.520 appointment on Thursday evening. 00:08:48.160 --> 00:08:53.740 And so what we had told the therapist, we would, we would check tests on Wednesday. 00:08:53.780 --> 00:08:58.380 And if we were both negative and we both had no symptoms, then we would go. 00:08:58.620 --> 00:09:02.320 And she agreed to that. And we tested Wednesday evening and no symptoms. 00:09:02.400 --> 00:09:04.820 And so we went on Thursday and, 00:09:05.410 --> 00:09:09.470 Alex was resisting going on Thursday, but he didn't want to go anyway. 00:09:09.810 --> 00:09:11.510 So, and he said he had a sore throat. 00:09:11.570 --> 00:09:15.230 It wasn't because, yeah, it wasn't because he was sick. He didn't want to go, period. 00:09:15.370 --> 00:09:19.110 He didn't want to go, period. He said he had a sore throat, but there wasn't 00:09:19.110 --> 00:09:22.650 anything we could tell. Like, it wasn't visible. So, we went to the therapist thing. 00:09:23.130 --> 00:09:29.310 As soon as we got home, he grabbed himself a COVID test, and he took it. 00:09:29.310 --> 00:09:32.270 And then a few minutes 00:09:32.270 --> 00:09:38.410 later he excitedly ran to us to show us that he was positive he was so happy 00:09:38.410 --> 00:09:42.850 and thrilled that he was positive and there there were a couple reasons for 00:09:42.850 --> 00:09:51.330 this one he didn't have to isolate from his mother anymore and two it proved he was right he was 00:09:51.430 --> 00:09:55.090 trying to tell us he didn't feel good and we 00:09:55.090 --> 00:09:58.710 made him go anyway and i 00:09:58.710 --> 00:10:01.430 will but look let me say i was 00:10:01.430 --> 00:10:06.050 saying so i then immediately after that took one myself i also tested positive 00:10:06.050 --> 00:10:10.270 and this was also what by the way you know how you're supposed to wait 15 minutes 00:10:10.270 --> 00:10:14.990 to see if you can see the little line on the test blah blah for both alex and 00:10:14.990 --> 00:10:19.870 i and my wife a few days before that the line was like nearly instant. 00:10:20.410 --> 00:10:28.510 Like I had a dark, dark black band on the treatment line before the control 00:10:28.510 --> 00:10:30.710 line even showed up on the stupid test. 00:10:30.950 --> 00:10:34.790 It was like mere seconds and the darkest I've ever seen. 00:10:35.170 --> 00:10:39.730 And so, but at the time I didn't feel any like symptoms, but then of course, 00:10:39.750 --> 00:10:42.090 like within half an hour of the positive test, I'm like, okay, 00:10:42.130 --> 00:10:47.370 but wait, do, do, is my chest a a little tight? Do I have a little bit of attic? 00:10:47.790 --> 00:10:52.030 Because psychosomatically, now that I've tested positive, I'm looking out for every little bit. 00:10:52.210 --> 00:10:53.290 Yeah, of course. That doesn't help either. Yeah. 00:10:53.730 --> 00:10:57.810 But yeah, no. But by the time I woke up this morning, though, 00:10:57.970 --> 00:11:01.370 it felt like somebody was sitting on my head. 00:11:02.190 --> 00:11:07.030 And so I'm all stuffy, congested, a little bit of a cough. 00:11:07.730 --> 00:11:14.850 And from talking to my wife as well, like, you know, it took a few days for her symptoms to ramp up. 00:11:14.910 --> 00:11:19.950 My symptoms are still every few hours are worse than a few hours previously. 00:11:20.110 --> 00:11:25.550 So I'm still on the getting worse side of this as opposed to the getting better side of this. 00:11:25.610 --> 00:11:33.850 So we'll see. I, I also like for like, this is only my second time testing positive for COVID. 00:11:34.520 --> 00:11:41.440 The first time, I hardly ever felt anything. I felt maybe a few very mild symptoms, but I'm not sure. 00:11:41.680 --> 00:11:46.040 Like, it was not bad. But let's be fair about this. 00:11:46.180 --> 00:11:51.120 You got, listen, right now, you got your COVID booster how long ago now? 00:11:51.180 --> 00:11:52.940 Oh, long enough it doesn't matter anymore. 00:11:53.280 --> 00:11:53.720 Exactly. 00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:57.620 And also, the current one, like, the last time I was at my doctor, 00:11:57.740 --> 00:12:01.580 I'm like, can I have the next one? And she's like, no, current recommendation. 00:12:01.820 --> 00:12:06.700 You could. You could have it now. But current recommendations are you wait. 00:12:06.820 --> 00:12:11.420 They're coming out with a new one in September that is effective against the 00:12:11.420 --> 00:12:14.420 current set of variants. 00:12:14.900 --> 00:12:20.700 And the one that's out right now isn't really that effective against the one 00:12:20.700 --> 00:12:22.900 that's out right now, that's going around right now. 00:12:23.080 --> 00:12:26.940 And so she recommended I wait. So I waited. And of course, I ended up with COVID. 00:12:26.940 --> 00:12:29.820 But my point though was what i wouldn't 00:12:29.820 --> 00:12:32.560 probably wouldn't matter yeah what i wanted to say though 00:12:32.560 --> 00:12:35.740 is that last time i just pushed 00:12:35.740 --> 00:12:40.840 through and i worked anyway like i was like i work from home and it doesn't 00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:45.640 matter i'll just continue to work this time two things one as soon as my wife 00:12:45.640 --> 00:12:50.800 had it i told work like i'm not coming into the office like i know you're doing 00:12:50.800 --> 00:12:54.180 this right office thing I'm testing negative right now. 00:12:54.200 --> 00:13:00.380 I have no symptoms, but I could be a carrier because very often you are contagious 00:13:00.380 --> 00:13:04.660 before you notice the first symptoms, before you test positive. 00:13:05.000 --> 00:13:10.900 So I'm like, I'm exposed. I'm clearly in a situation where I'm exposed. 00:13:11.180 --> 00:13:14.020 Well, here is the good thing about having to go to the office. 00:13:14.340 --> 00:13:18.240 You see, you don't feel compelled to work. 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:23.080 Well, yeah, because here's what I did this time. Like this last time I pushed 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:26.900 through this time, first I said, I'm not coming into the office, but I'll work from home. 00:13:27.080 --> 00:13:32.020 But I told my boss right at that moment and, and he, we had a back and forth and he sort of agreed. 00:13:32.540 --> 00:13:36.040 I'm like, look, if I test positive, I'm just piecing out. 00:13:36.220 --> 00:13:40.700 I'm like, I am going to shut, I'm going to shut down the computer. 00:13:41.020 --> 00:13:46.120 I am not going to work. I am going to, I'm just going to try to rest as much 00:13:46.120 --> 00:13:49.000 as possible until I. Yeah. 00:13:49.990 --> 00:13:56.150 Until I actually test negative again. And Thursday night I tested positive. 00:13:56.350 --> 00:14:00.550 So like an hour later, I was like on the company Slack saying, Nope, I got COVID. 00:14:00.770 --> 00:14:05.050 I'm, I'm checking out. I'll be back when I test negative again. 00:14:05.250 --> 00:14:09.670 And, you know, and yeah, okay, fine folks, I am doing this podcast. 00:14:10.050 --> 00:14:14.630 I've entered a few things on election graphs, but otherwise I've been sitting 00:14:14.630 --> 00:14:20.350 on the damn couch. I've been lying down immediately before this podcast. I took a two-hour nap. 00:14:21.950 --> 00:14:26.990 I've been trying to be good. I've been trying to basically relax because at 00:14:26.990 --> 00:14:30.850 this point, they've figured out, and I've taken my first Paxlovid, 00:14:30.950 --> 00:14:32.890 the whole family's on Paxlovid right now, 00:14:33.010 --> 00:14:38.030 but they've figured out basically amongst the other factors, 00:14:38.210 --> 00:14:46.250 trying to push through it generally makes it worse and increases your chances of long COVID stuff. 00:14:46.450 --> 00:14:52.510 So you really, your recommended course of behavior is do as close to nothing 00:14:52.510 --> 00:14:54.750 as possible until you're past it. 00:14:54.850 --> 00:14:58.110 So that's my intention. So there you go. 00:14:58.450 --> 00:15:00.790 So this wasn't your butt first. 00:15:01.430 --> 00:15:06.450 Oh, oops. Yeah, no. I mean, I can save my movie for next week. 00:15:06.490 --> 00:15:08.670 It's Howard the Duck, Yvonne. It's finally Howard the Duck. 00:15:08.670 --> 00:15:10.970 Okay, no, no. We got to talk about Howard the Duck. 00:15:13.170 --> 00:15:15.550 No, no, no. We can't skip that. No. 00:15:15.810 --> 00:15:18.570 Should I roll right into Howard the Duck if you want to do something first? 00:15:18.830 --> 00:15:21.870 Yes, please. No, no, no, please. How was it, Sam? 00:15:22.990 --> 00:15:24.470 Okay, so you and... 00:15:25.750 --> 00:15:29.230 Alex is trying to give me the timeline. 00:15:29.790 --> 00:15:37.010 He says, Daddy has COVID. Timeline. Mommy has COVID. Then Alex spends time with Mommy. 00:15:37.550 --> 00:15:39.930 Okay, Alex-y, are you happy now? 00:15:40.490 --> 00:15:44.370 He writes down Alex-y instead of Alex. Alex-y spends time with Mommy. 00:15:44.490 --> 00:15:47.450 Mommy tests positive for COVID. Daddy spends time with Alex-y. 00:15:48.270 --> 00:15:51.370 Doggy spends time with Mommy. Doggy has COVID. 00:15:51.370 --> 00:15:57.770 I have no evidence one way or another, whether our dog has COVID doggy spends 00:15:57.770 --> 00:16:03.010 time with daddy and Alexi mommy spends time with caddy caddy has COVID daddy 00:16:03.010 --> 00:16:05.650 spends time with caddy and Alexi Alexi feel sick. 00:16:05.790 --> 00:16:08.550 Alexi indicates sick. Daddy says liar. 00:16:09.150 --> 00:16:14.410 Daddy spends time with Alexi. Daddy spends more time with Alexi Alexi feels. 00:16:14.590 --> 00:16:17.390 And that's the end of the thing. Okay. 00:16:17.490 --> 00:16:17.890 Wow. 00:16:18.130 --> 00:16:19.050 Howard the duck. 00:16:19.570 --> 00:16:22.730 Howard the Duck how was it? 00:16:23.090 --> 00:16:28.390 Here's the thing you had mentioned on the show one week we were talking bad 00:16:28.390 --> 00:16:30.390 movies and you mentioned how awful, 00:16:31.270 --> 00:16:36.730 Howard the Duck is and then so I was going to add it to my list but in fact 00:16:36.730 --> 00:16:40.070 it was already somewhere on my list and it just happened by pure coincidence 00:16:40.070 --> 00:16:46.130 in the week after you had mentioned it on the show I had rolled something about 00:16:46.130 --> 00:16:50.410 doing the Marvel Cinematic Universe And as it turns out, Howard. 00:16:50.450 --> 00:16:53.690 Yeah. And I completely forgot that how this stuff was part of it. Yeah. 00:16:53.750 --> 00:16:59.590 It is Marvel. And so I had, I, I came up and I watched it like a week later. 00:16:59.830 --> 00:17:02.310 And of course that was months ago. That was in March. And, 00:17:03.070 --> 00:17:05.810 But here's the deal. I didn't hate it. 00:17:06.310 --> 00:17:07.330 You didn't hate it? 00:17:07.470 --> 00:17:10.290 I'm not giving it. I'm going to go with the thumbs sideways, 00:17:10.390 --> 00:17:12.910 not a thumbs up. But I did not hate it at all. 00:17:13.070 --> 00:17:17.470 I was amused by it. I found it like, you know, okay. 00:17:18.090 --> 00:17:22.450 And what's her name in it? Like Lee Thompson, right? Is that her name? 00:17:22.770 --> 00:17:24.390 Yeah. Yeah. Leah Thompson. 00:17:25.210 --> 00:17:26.650 And I like her. 00:17:27.150 --> 00:17:27.550 Okay. 00:17:28.330 --> 00:17:29.770 And here is the thing. 00:17:30.130 --> 00:17:33.730 I think that this may be a thing of expectation. okay 00:17:33.730 --> 00:17:37.070 i gotta tell you why because when it came out i 00:17:37.070 --> 00:17:40.710 think expectations were very high for that movie 00:17:40.710 --> 00:17:43.450 okay and and you know 00:17:43.450 --> 00:17:47.610 when you have this expectation this thing is going to be awesome and 00:17:47.610 --> 00:17:50.590 it's what howard the duck was then i think 00:17:50.590 --> 00:17:54.090 you're like oh come on what the fuck okay yeah 00:17:54.090 --> 00:17:56.950 i mean and and so so i think that was 00:17:56.950 --> 00:17:59.950 part of it and so i went and i set the expectations 00:17:59.950 --> 00:18:03.350 so low for you maybe maybe 00:18:03.350 --> 00:18:08.670 because i that because i literally saw like well it's not exactly you're you're 00:18:08.670 --> 00:18:16.790 like well it's not the worst ever right and so so yeah it's one of those things 00:18:16.790 --> 00:18:22.590 where i do think that when it came out and i think i'm pretty sure i saw it at the theaters, 00:18:23.390 --> 00:18:28.970 okay i was just like what the fuck is this yeah. 00:18:28.970 --> 00:18:32.670 I mean and look i mean i was mildly amused by. 00:18:32.670 --> 00:18:35.210 It like it was it was fine. 00:18:35.210 --> 00:18:40.970 It was okay like i there were moments that i thought were somewhat funny like 00:18:40.970 --> 00:18:45.650 i said i i i'm a fan of lee thompson i like this like she's cute i like the 00:18:45.650 --> 00:18:47.450 thing she does The duck is. 00:18:47.450 --> 00:18:53.770 Not cute. The duck is not cute. No. Not at all. No, not in the slightest. 00:18:55.030 --> 00:19:01.390 But it was fine. It was okay. And you may be right. There may be an expectation setting. 00:19:01.610 --> 00:19:10.210 There were probably a few WTF moments in this thing, but it just seemed like, okay, fine. 00:19:10.410 --> 00:19:13.030 It's a movie. It's whatever. Whatever. 00:19:14.230 --> 00:19:17.910 And I... Yeah. I... 00:19:19.030 --> 00:19:24.630 I don't rush to rewatch anything, but I certainly wouldn't watch rush to rewatch this. 00:19:24.790 --> 00:19:29.930 But I saved the thumbs down for the things where throughout the whole movie, 00:19:30.030 --> 00:19:33.810 I'm like, Oh my God, this is awful. I wish I was done. 00:19:33.990 --> 00:19:40.570 I wish I had never selected this. I forced myself to finish them rather than watching them. 00:19:40.650 --> 00:19:46.110 But, and that, that's a good way to put it. Like I save thumbs down for ones that I have to. 00:19:46.130 --> 00:19:49.530 You're like, I have to force myself to finish. Okay. 00:19:49.930 --> 00:19:54.110 I did not have to force myself to finish the Howard, finish Howard the duck. 00:19:54.170 --> 00:19:55.710 It was fine. It was entertaining. 00:19:56.070 --> 00:19:59.370 I, I had no problems with it. It had some good moments. 00:19:59.590 --> 00:20:03.370 It was an exceptional in any way, shape or form. No, it was not exceptional 00:20:03.370 --> 00:20:05.510 in any way, shape or form, but it was fine. 00:20:06.270 --> 00:20:10.290 It wasn't. And, and I wasn't screaming like, Oh my God, please turn this thing 00:20:10.290 --> 00:20:12.830 off. So it gets a thumb sideways for me. 00:20:12.970 --> 00:20:18.510 Okay. So, so, okay. So that's, that's, you know, know better than i expected uh by comparison the. 00:20:18.510 --> 00:20:22.370 Other one which this will now be the third or fourth time it's been mentioned 00:20:22.370 --> 00:20:27.270 on the show that you mentioned once and had me add to my list and i watched 00:20:27.270 --> 00:20:32.390 which did absolutely merit that thumbs down category was low blow. 00:20:32.390 --> 00:20:35.930 Oh yes because you did watch low blow i. 00:20:35.930 --> 00:20:37.570 Did watch low blowing yes. 00:20:37.570 --> 00:20:42.370 Look yes and that and that movie definitely is 00:20:42.370 --> 00:20:47.170 way way way worse than howard 00:20:47.170 --> 00:20:50.210 the duck yeah i mean that yes i i don't 00:20:50.210 --> 00:20:53.670 think that um that that cannot be argued yeah 00:20:53.670 --> 00:20:59.870 like uh yeah i i you know i'm looking at howard the duck rotten tomatoes gives 00:20:59.870 --> 00:21:08.630 it a 13 it's got a imdb of 4.7 which is quite low as well you know but it's 00:21:08.630 --> 00:21:11.770 not low blow right Low Blow, if I remember correctly, 00:21:12.050 --> 00:21:15.370 scores way below that. 00:21:15.670 --> 00:21:17.870 It's got a 4.1 IMDb. 00:21:19.130 --> 00:21:23.130 For some reason, it's got a 21% Rotten Tomatoes. I just think that's got to 00:21:23.130 --> 00:21:29.790 be just people just, you know, just say, wow, it's so bad that I'm just going to give it a thumbs up. 00:21:29.910 --> 00:21:38.810 But yeah, no, this thing is just, you know, a 4.1 IMDB rating is very hard to get. 00:21:39.370 --> 00:21:42.050 It has to be. Yeah. So, yeah. 00:21:42.050 --> 00:21:47.530 So Howard the Duck is a cinematic masterpiece compared to Low Blow. Yes. And yeah. 00:21:47.630 --> 00:21:47.870 Yes. 00:21:47.950 --> 00:21:48.430 Absolutely. 00:21:48.770 --> 00:21:50.450 100% agree. Yes. Yes. 00:21:50.530 --> 00:21:55.550 Okay. Anyway, that was my movie for the week. Do you have a butt first of your 00:21:55.550 --> 00:21:57.730 own before we slip into real things? 00:21:58.570 --> 00:22:02.250 What the fuck was I thinking about my butt first for my own? 00:22:02.590 --> 00:22:04.850 What have I been doing? I don't know. 00:22:05.150 --> 00:22:10.290 You were gone for decades, like I said. And now you're fondling your microphone. 00:22:10.870 --> 00:22:16.530 Yeah, I'm fondling the microphone. phone well the 00:22:16.530 --> 00:22:20.030 only thing i'll make an observation about is i 00:22:20.030 --> 00:22:22.910 posted a picture of my wife and son playing on 00:22:22.910 --> 00:22:29.570 the beach um last week and this hotel that i i i have been staying at is is 00:22:29.570 --> 00:22:37.450 is uh is a hotel that's it's a resort okay but i've been they have a very good 00:22:37.450 --> 00:22:40.050 corporate rate so i've been staying at that hotel for work. 00:22:40.270 --> 00:22:45.310 And I had my wife and my son go with me last week to, to this hotel. 00:22:45.690 --> 00:22:50.910 So wait, so the deal was you were, you were doing something for work and they just tagged along. 00:22:51.410 --> 00:22:55.610 Well, the thing is, so we were supposed to go on vacation last week, but work interfered. 00:22:55.630 --> 00:22:56.350 Ah, okay. 00:22:56.430 --> 00:23:00.130 And so what I said is, look, I got to go back to Puerto Rico. 00:23:00.150 --> 00:23:02.590 So why don't you guys just come with me? Okay. 00:23:02.990 --> 00:23:03.390 Okay. 00:23:03.790 --> 00:23:11.090 And so, so I, I brought him along and, And the one thing is that they were playing on this beach. 00:23:11.150 --> 00:23:14.530 Now, the beach is in San Juan, 00:23:14.710 --> 00:23:22.710 and this is a north facing beach that unlike a whole bunch of beaches that are 00:23:22.710 --> 00:23:26.810 in the northern part of Puerto Rico, doesn't it's not in a bay. 00:23:27.350 --> 00:23:30.730 There isn't the reef to block off the waves. 00:23:31.230 --> 00:23:34.390 OK, so you get some really, really big waves. 00:23:34.390 --> 00:23:42.950 And this beach, the last few years, has been the scene of a number of drownings 00:23:42.950 --> 00:23:48.290 by people not heeding the flags at the beach. 00:23:49.030 --> 00:23:54.110 Okay? Almost every day I've been there, a red flag was up. Basically, 00:23:54.230 --> 00:23:56.570 red flag, don't go in the fucking way. 00:23:57.830 --> 00:24:02.750 This beach is public in large part because all the beaches in Puerto Rico are public. 00:24:02.830 --> 00:24:08.210 You can't really block access to any of the beaches in Puerto Rico. 00:24:10.130 --> 00:24:16.370 So there aren't lifeguards posted and people have argued. It's like, why the hell? 00:24:16.450 --> 00:24:17.630 Why don't you have lifeguards? 00:24:17.650 --> 00:24:21.950 But there's been a number of people that have died. 00:24:22.050 --> 00:24:24.530 I did post a picture and a friend of mine was like, say, hey, 00:24:24.610 --> 00:24:26.710 you know that that beach is bad. I'm like, listen. a door. 00:24:27.230 --> 00:24:31.950 My son doesn't even go. My son will play like at the edge of the water, 00:24:32.010 --> 00:24:35.970 but they don't, he doesn't like to go in swimming and like get himself inside the water. 00:24:36.010 --> 00:24:39.650 So he doesn't go in there. He prefers to go on the thing. 00:24:39.830 --> 00:24:43.450 So and then the other day, the weather was exceptionally bad. 00:24:44.690 --> 00:24:48.170 So on top of the red flag, I saw that the hotel, 00:24:48.950 --> 00:24:53.090 posted a another flag on the beach itself, 00:24:53.290 --> 00:24:56.270 like right at the the shore with some skull 00:24:56.270 --> 00:24:59.490 and crossbones on it red basically trying 00:24:59.490 --> 00:25:02.490 to warn people not to go into the water 00:25:02.490 --> 00:25:05.910 and as i see this some tourist clowns went 00:25:05.910 --> 00:25:13.850 in and were jumping into the water at these waves and i i just don't understand 00:25:13.850 --> 00:25:18.730 these fucking people i i'm just like guys look at the fucking waves the fuck 00:25:18.730 --> 00:25:22.510 are you doing i mean it's it's it's not it's nice to sit like 00:25:22.590 --> 00:25:26.230 brighter water it's nice to get wet a little bit but but when you have the fucking 00:25:26.230 --> 00:25:29.990 red flag stuck right there with it's called crossbones at the entrance of the 00:25:29.990 --> 00:25:37.270 beach why are you going into the water why why what's wrong with you yeah. 00:25:37.270 --> 00:25:41.730 It's like those people you always get the video of the people like surfing because 00:25:41.730 --> 00:25:43.510 the hurricane's coming and stuff like that. 00:25:43.510 --> 00:25:46.170 Yeah yeah yeah there was i'll tell you what 00:25:46.170 --> 00:25:48.930 there was there was one that i i'll never forget you 00:25:48.930 --> 00:25:52.250 know the kite board thing kind of thing you know 00:25:52.250 --> 00:25:55.290 they go with a kite yeah they're they're like they've 00:25:55.290 --> 00:25:58.330 got this kite it's it looks like a parachute it's dragging 00:25:58.330 --> 00:26:01.190 them and they're on a board right right i saw this guy 00:26:01.190 --> 00:26:05.050 on on a hurricane approaching fort lauderdale that did this and they were recording 00:26:05.050 --> 00:26:09.970 on video and the wind dragged them towards a couple of cement walls and slammed 00:26:09.970 --> 00:26:18.410 them on live video into into a wall i either he died or let's just say he had 00:26:18.410 --> 00:26:20.530 almost every bone in his body broken could. 00:26:21.850 --> 00:26:22.330 Beautiful. 00:26:22.390 --> 00:26:26.970 And I'm just like, you idiots. What do you think was going to happen? 00:26:27.050 --> 00:26:31.630 A 70 mile an hour gust adores a whole bunch of concrete over there. 00:26:31.690 --> 00:26:34.050 Where are you going to land softly? 00:26:35.670 --> 00:26:36.150 Anyway. 00:26:36.530 --> 00:26:37.470 No airbags? 00:26:38.290 --> 00:26:42.750 No, no airbags. No. Yeah, that guy really. 00:26:42.890 --> 00:26:48.310 I do think he survived, but let's just say it wasn't easily. 00:26:48.310 --> 00:26:52.270 Easily speaking of airbags that you mentioned this i i only saw this recently 00:26:52.270 --> 00:26:58.130 i'm seeing these people like competing in like uh motorcycle competitions right 00:26:58.130 --> 00:27:02.610 with the motorcycle airbag things yeah yeah well have you seen it's it's like 00:27:02.610 --> 00:27:05.810 a suit yeah that they wear and and apparently, 00:27:06.590 --> 00:27:11.090 when they i i didn't realize this until recently that if they get launched off 00:27:11.090 --> 00:27:12.730 the thing that the The thing trigger pops. 00:27:12.870 --> 00:27:17.310 Yeah. It triggers these airbags on the body. That's pretty fucking cool. 00:27:17.530 --> 00:27:23.950 I have, I have seen like some sort of like video showing how it works that like 00:27:23.950 --> 00:27:27.010 there's a cord that attaches between their suit and the motorcycle. 00:27:27.450 --> 00:27:31.310 And if it gets snapped, which like happens if they're more, if they get pulled 00:27:31.310 --> 00:27:34.230 more than like a foot and a half away from the motorcycle, two feet, 00:27:34.290 --> 00:27:36.370 whatever it is, it triggers the airbag. 00:27:36.430 --> 00:27:40.610 And it's like, I don't know, milliseconds for the thing to expand. 00:27:41.830 --> 00:27:45.030 Just like a regular airbag i also remember sharing 00:27:45.030 --> 00:27:50.590 with somebody they've they've prototyped the same kind of technology for the 00:27:50.590 --> 00:27:56.890 elderly that just detects all they sure they just wear they wear the suit and 00:27:56.890 --> 00:28:01.850 it detects if they trip or fall before they hit the ground fuck. 00:28:01.850 --> 00:28:04.030 That's a that's a great idea actually. 00:28:04.030 --> 00:28:06.950 You know so yeah it'd be. 00:28:06.950 --> 00:28:09.310 Kind of funny to trigger it on them on purpose. 00:28:09.310 --> 00:28:12.630 Well, if you Google it, and I forget what it's called, I'm sorry, 00:28:12.870 --> 00:28:15.870 but, you know, here, I'll... 00:28:16.410 --> 00:28:18.930 When you're old, I'll visit Sam with a suit, and all of a sudden, 00:28:18.990 --> 00:28:23.330 I'll just fucking trigger that thing. I'm like, gosh! Sam's like the Michelin Man all of a sudden. 00:28:23.390 --> 00:28:29.950 Well, and it's like that. The YouTube video... Okay, now I have to find this for you now. 00:28:30.390 --> 00:28:33.890 I'll either find it quickly here. 00:28:35.730 --> 00:28:37.430 There we go. Let's see. 00:28:39.310 --> 00:28:40.890 Yeah, I want the YouTube video. Okay. 00:28:41.510 --> 00:28:41.890 Yeah. 00:28:42.250 --> 00:28:43.370 Here we go. 00:28:44.480 --> 00:28:51.600 I won't play the video. Okay. This is from nine years ago. 00:28:51.900 --> 00:28:55.780 Let's see. Is this the video I'm thinking of? Yes, it is. It is. Absolutely. 00:28:55.940 --> 00:29:01.640 So if you search YouTube for wearable airbag protects elderly from falls, 00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:10.060 you will get a nice little five minute demo video from nine years ago from some 00:29:10.060 --> 00:29:12.100 company that was trying to do this. 00:29:12.100 --> 00:29:15.540 I haven't seen much more about it, and it was nine years ago, 00:29:15.640 --> 00:29:22.040 so maybe their company didn't succeed, but it's got some videos of some guy testing it out. 00:29:22.720 --> 00:29:32.340 Okay, I just saw that Amazon has S-Airbag Unisex Elderly Anti-Fall Airbag Vest 00:29:32.340 --> 00:29:35.120 Wearable Airbag Smart Vest for Seniors. 00:29:35.200 --> 00:29:36.200 I guess they have production. 00:29:36.200 --> 00:29:41.040 And the price is not that bad, $999. Okay. It's not that bad. 00:29:41.640 --> 00:29:46.740 If you get one of those at a discount from work okay as well i make sure that 00:29:46.740 --> 00:29:53.060 when you're older i know i know i know it's like my core it's like any of the 00:29:53.060 --> 00:29:57.360 discounts i've ever had from work never been that good but i'll i'll i'll make 00:29:57.360 --> 00:30:01.500 sure to just trigger it for the hell of it like you know when i'm visiting you yeah. 00:30:01.500 --> 00:30:02.480 Where where just. 00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:03.520 To see well you know. 00:30:03.520 --> 00:30:07.840 The the thing is anyway if you search for this video they've got some some a 00:30:07.840 --> 00:30:09.740 volunteer testing out the thing. 00:30:09.740 --> 00:30:14.060 Falling you get to see it yeah yeah yeah they've got some pictures here of the 00:30:14.060 --> 00:30:18.940 guy and stuff and everything yeah this is you know i should get this for my dad you. 00:30:18.940 --> 00:30:23.480 Know well and you got to think though like have they fully perfected the technology 00:30:23.480 --> 00:30:26.680 or is this thing going to go off in your face when you're not falling because 00:30:26.680 --> 00:30:27.780 that would probably be bad. 00:30:27.780 --> 00:30:31.940 Well you know it doesn't hurt you i mean it's just you know as long as it's just well i mean regular. 00:30:31.940 --> 00:30:37.640 Like regular car airbags for instance do potentially do some damage to you it's 00:30:37.640 --> 00:30:40.660 just it's less damage than not having it so you. 00:30:40.660 --> 00:30:41.380 Don't you. 00:30:41.380 --> 00:30:43.780 Don't want the airbag in your car going off randomly. 00:30:43.780 --> 00:30:47.760 It makes like so your nose or something or whatever but it's you know but not 00:30:47.760 --> 00:30:54.220 you know but but you know you know can i say that the only corporate discount 00:30:54.220 --> 00:31:01.240 that i've ever had for a job that ever was any good okay was the one that It 00:31:01.240 --> 00:31:03.260 involved working as a travel agent. 00:31:03.500 --> 00:31:04.740 Oh, OK. 00:31:04.940 --> 00:31:10.840 Those discounts back then, and I know that they're not not as good now where, 00:31:10.940 --> 00:31:16.120 man, there are like, I mean, 75 percent off. 00:31:17.240 --> 00:31:23.080 And, you know, airfare. In some cases, I got with one airline, 00:31:23.280 --> 00:31:28.920 I remember that I got absolutely free travel, which it was basically there was 00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:30.960 a small carrier that flew between. 00:31:31.220 --> 00:31:37.860 San Juan and some small islands of the Caribbean around there. And if I showed up, 00:31:38.730 --> 00:31:43.750 And there were empty seats. I showed my travel agent ID, which I had an official 00:31:43.750 --> 00:31:49.790 travel agent ID from the International Airline Transportation Association with that and my ID. 00:31:50.070 --> 00:31:52.830 They would, if there was an empty seat, they would let me get on for free. 00:31:53.310 --> 00:31:53.830 Okay. 00:31:54.170 --> 00:31:59.850 And almost, back then invariably, there were always almost empty seats. 00:32:00.430 --> 00:32:06.870 I, the load factor on a typical flight was 60 some odd percent. 00:32:06.930 --> 00:32:11.470 I mean, the chances of, The only days you wouldn't get a seat like that was 00:32:11.470 --> 00:32:14.750 like Thanksgiving weekend or something like that. 00:32:14.810 --> 00:32:19.590 But any other day, mundane day, you would get on a damn. There was always an MTC. 00:32:19.950 --> 00:32:25.550 It's stunning to me like right now how almost every flight I get on that I got 00:32:25.550 --> 00:32:27.670 on the last few weeks was 100% full. 00:32:28.070 --> 00:32:33.550 Not one MTC. And that, I mean, that's, that did not happen before. 00:32:33.830 --> 00:32:38.510 It's, it's crazy how that's changed in the industry. but anyway all. 00:32:38.510 --> 00:32:44.790 Right anyway so we're done but first but the hell but first is all done um first 00:32:44.790 --> 00:32:51.570 second it's third the next up then we are going to take a break and it is an apple dream, 00:32:52.570 --> 00:32:55.430 so i so i saved this from 00:32:55.430 --> 00:32:58.190 last week it would have otherwise been last week i will warn you 00:32:58.190 --> 00:33:01.510 this one's a couple minutes long like three minutes long but 00:33:01.510 --> 00:33:04.390 it's it's an apple dream so i'm we'll we'll 00:33:04.390 --> 00:33:10.130 see if yvonne has any reactions to this one and then then when when we get back 00:33:10.130 --> 00:33:15.130 from the apple dream it'll be yvonne's turn to like pick stuff because light 00:33:15.130 --> 00:33:17.190 it up baby because i've got the 00:33:17.190 --> 00:33:21.710 whole covet brain fog thing going on can't think oh yeah yeah yeah go and. 00:33:21.710 --> 00:33:23.910 Like just said yeah okay yeah yeah yeah whatever. 00:33:23.910 --> 00:33:29.350 Excuses excuse here you go apple dream i. 00:33:29.350 --> 00:33:32.090 Was not sure which one. 00:33:35.190 --> 00:33:39.050 I was at some place eating. I was with a group. 00:33:40.150 --> 00:33:49.410 There was a woman with the group that I knew, and I didn't know the rest of the people. 00:33:49.650 --> 00:33:54.270 And I don't know. 00:33:55.310 --> 00:33:58.890 The The person seemed very familiar, but I can't quite place them. 00:34:00.130 --> 00:34:05.750 It was not Clara from Doctor Who, but it looked kind of like her. 00:34:06.790 --> 00:34:12.050 In any case, I had cashed out. Well, no, it was time to pay. 00:34:13.730 --> 00:34:20.810 And they told me they couldn't take my U.S. credit card. 00:34:22.210 --> 00:34:26.050 And so I was like what do I do because I hadn't cashed out to any of the local 00:34:26.050 --> 00:34:31.070 currency because of course I hadn't and I asked if they took any of the. 00:34:32.820 --> 00:34:39.500 Common electronic payment apps like can i use cash app can i use venmo can i 00:34:39.500 --> 00:34:46.280 use whatever and they're like no but we take this and it was like someone i'd never heard of. 00:34:47.560 --> 00:34:50.500 And i was like okay i'll install 00:34:50.500 --> 00:34:55.060 it and get it set up but i 00:34:55.060 --> 00:34:57.920 couldn't get the internet to work on my phone except my 00:34:57.920 --> 00:35:00.740 phone wasn't a phone it was like a stick of 00:35:00.740 --> 00:35:03.920 gum well an electronic device the 00:35:03.920 --> 00:35:06.920 shape and size of a stick of gum but i 00:35:06.920 --> 00:35:10.040 couldn't get internet on it and so the 00:35:10.040 --> 00:35:15.640 woman who was with me was like i have cash i'm like can i just vent can i just 00:35:15.640 --> 00:35:20.200 use one of these apps to give you the money and she's like she hadn't used any 00:35:20.200 --> 00:35:24.980 of them before either but i was like i'll help you it's easy i can set you up 00:35:24.980 --> 00:35:27.760 with one of them or i can help you get set up with one of them, 00:35:28.340 --> 00:35:31.820 and she's like okay whatever and i 00:35:31.820 --> 00:35:34.740 look at the bill and i try to figure it out and apparently 00:35:34.740 --> 00:35:39.700 i was at a starbucks i mean it didn't seem like it was a starbucks before but 00:35:39.700 --> 00:35:45.620 the receipt had like starbucks stuff on it and at first i couldn't tell which 00:35:45.620 --> 00:35:50.360 one was the total because like there There were lines for like how many Starbucks 00:35:50.360 --> 00:35:52.380 points I had and stuff on the receipt. 00:35:53.240 --> 00:35:59.560 But then I finally figured out which one and I owed like 126 of the local currency or whatever. 00:36:00.660 --> 00:36:04.700 And the woman who was with me paid. And... 00:36:07.630 --> 00:36:13.930 Then we were getting ready to go, and I was going to talk to her more about how I pay her back. 00:36:14.850 --> 00:36:19.370 And there was more, like, we were going to go somewhere, but it was somewhere 00:36:19.370 --> 00:36:22.450 specific with the whole group, not just with her. 00:36:22.650 --> 00:36:27.650 And there was stuff that happened before we stopped to eat. Like, 00:36:29.850 --> 00:36:34.830 there were more people with us, and there was stuff going on that we were doing, 00:36:34.930 --> 00:36:36.830 and we just stopped for a snack or whatever. 00:36:36.830 --> 00:36:43.190 But the only thing I can remember now is the stop for the snack and the paying 00:36:43.190 --> 00:36:50.910 part and not being able to pay because they didn't take cards and I had no cash 00:36:50.910 --> 00:36:52.670 and they didn't take the apps. 00:36:53.710 --> 00:36:58.830 But the person with me could pay. But now I had to pay her back. 00:36:59.790 --> 00:37:03.610 Yeah. Then I woke up. Bye. 00:37:04.410 --> 00:37:05.390 And that's it. 00:37:06.050 --> 00:37:13.910 You know, yesterday, yesterday, yes, my wife was trying to send money to one 00:37:13.910 --> 00:37:15.630 of her relatives in Colombia. 00:37:15.750 --> 00:37:18.890 And they just went through what you were describing. 00:37:19.110 --> 00:37:22.930 Hey, can I Venmo it to you? No. Can I send it through Apple Cash? 00:37:23.190 --> 00:37:27.250 No. Can I to PayPal? No. I've never been able to get it to work. 00:37:27.430 --> 00:37:33.050 We're going through this exact same thing. And then she says, hey, I got this app. 00:37:33.150 --> 00:37:38.430 It's called Wise. wise i used it to send money i'm like fuck i've never i you 00:37:38.430 --> 00:37:43.970 ever heard of wise i never know wise no so i'm using that one because so and 00:37:43.970 --> 00:37:48.670 i went through the thing so i went to install i had to go and install it on 00:37:48.670 --> 00:37:50.550 her phone and figure it out or whatever, 00:37:51.480 --> 00:37:54.660 like get it to work in order to first i was i've been 00:37:54.660 --> 00:37:58.020 trying to check on her iphone whether 00:37:58.020 --> 00:38:03.660 they have apple cash in columbia and i guess they don't okay okay so but we 00:38:03.660 --> 00:38:08.480 installed the wise and and and then i connected it i saw that you could add 00:38:08.480 --> 00:38:14.100 the money through apple pay to it okay you had to load it and you had to check 00:38:14.100 --> 00:38:17.000 your id and all of this stuff or whatever the interesting 00:38:17.180 --> 00:38:21.620 thing about it is that i'm going to send it but there were fees involved with 00:38:21.620 --> 00:38:26.600 sending the money okay it wasn't just it wasn't fearless but at first we were 00:38:26.600 --> 00:38:32.640 trying to just send 14 dollars not a not a big amount but at first it wanted to charge me it almost. 00:38:32.640 --> 00:38:36.360 Seems at this point like is it even worth it for 14 dollars you know it's like. 00:38:36.360 --> 00:38:40.000 You know what she was trying to buy something for her cousin she wanted to send 00:38:40.000 --> 00:38:46.300 the money she wanted to make the point of paying for fucking 14 okay and so it wasn't 14 to you. 00:38:46.300 --> 00:38:47.760 It was you were paying 14. 00:38:47.760 --> 00:38:50.760 Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah right and so and 00:38:50.760 --> 00:38:53.960 and then at first they wanted to charge five dollars said 14 00:38:53.960 --> 00:38:56.860 i'm like five fucking dollars to pay 14 this is 00:38:56.860 --> 00:38:59.840 idiotic but as as i went and 00:38:59.840 --> 00:39:02.840 i kept doing more setup on the app it dropped 00:39:02.840 --> 00:39:06.360 the fee down to a buck okay somehow yeah so 00:39:06.360 --> 00:39:09.140 i was like okay a buck if i'm setting 14 i'm getting charged a 00:39:09.140 --> 00:39:12.340 buck i'm like ah okay fine a buck okay 00:39:12.340 --> 00:39:15.100 you can do the buck but i had to 00:39:15.100 --> 00:39:19.780 wind up basically yeah i had to go went through the same problem that your apple 00:39:19.780 --> 00:39:25.980 dream had just yesterday right okay yeah apparently a real problem and and then 00:39:25.980 --> 00:39:30.080 and then today i tried to pay this check at this restaurant that we went to 00:39:30.080 --> 00:39:34.340 and they have you know have you seen the uh Now they've got the receipt. 00:39:34.860 --> 00:39:38.340 There's a QR code out. You can scan and pay at some places. 00:39:39.340 --> 00:39:42.200 There are certain restaurants that have that. You just go. 00:39:42.320 --> 00:39:44.520 I think I've encountered that once. Yeah. 00:39:45.600 --> 00:39:49.120 So you can just go. You don't have to. Whatever. Just scan the QR code. 00:39:49.240 --> 00:39:51.960 Boom, boom, boom. And you pay right there. No, you don't have to do anything else. 00:39:52.120 --> 00:39:55.280 And so this restaurant had it. And I'm like, oh, I'll just pay with a QR code. 00:39:55.580 --> 00:39:59.000 Well, I don't know what problem they had. It kept declining the transaction. 00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:02.060 It kept saying gateway doesn't work. i actually got even 00:40:02.060 --> 00:40:04.720 transaction declines on my apple pay and i'm like what the 00:40:04.720 --> 00:40:07.940 hell the transaction applies doesn't make any sense so i 00:40:07.940 --> 00:40:11.900 have to give the guy the card give the guy the card they run it it comes back 00:40:11.900 --> 00:40:15.280 he brings me the little folder with the thing with the credit card but you have 00:40:15.280 --> 00:40:20.200 to wait a while because it was a lot of people and i didn't bring back my card 00:40:20.200 --> 00:40:25.560 the card's not in there and i'm like okay dude the card's not in there and he's 00:40:25.560 --> 00:40:27.320 saying no yes Yes, it is. No, it's not. 00:40:27.500 --> 00:40:30.280 Damn it. We've got you brought six folders to the table. 00:40:30.520 --> 00:40:33.520 All the bad cards except mine are going through every fucking folder. 00:40:34.180 --> 00:40:36.660 You know, going through it, looking through the floor. 00:40:37.680 --> 00:40:40.840 Get the manager. Guys, where the fuck is my credit card? You guys, 00:40:40.880 --> 00:40:44.260 he just ran it and I didn't bring it back. I need my fucking card back. 00:40:44.780 --> 00:40:47.660 You know, restaurants, they keep the lights dim. They have to turn up. 00:40:47.660 --> 00:40:49.760 They turned on all the lights in the fucking restaurant. 00:40:50.160 --> 00:40:53.940 The guy had gone after he ran it. He was running multiple cards. 00:40:54.040 --> 00:40:57.740 He has set it on top of the printer on the machine. 00:40:57.840 --> 00:41:00.420 My card was black. The printer is black. 00:41:00.840 --> 00:41:01.240 Gotcha. 00:41:01.380 --> 00:41:03.160 He didn't see that. I was like sitting right there. 00:41:04.000 --> 00:41:05.960 Nice. But they found anyway. 00:41:06.320 --> 00:41:10.680 But they found. yeah but anyway okay so we gotta yeah. 00:41:10.680 --> 00:41:17.720 You your choice your your body your choice you you you pick what we're going to talk about. 00:41:17.720 --> 00:41:24.340 My body my choice what am i having sex on this show now okay um not not usually. 00:41:24.340 --> 00:41:25.340 That you know there. 00:41:25.340 --> 00:41:26.820 Are many aspects to. 00:41:26.820 --> 00:41:28.120 This show but that is not usually. 00:41:28.120 --> 00:41:30.940 Well listen yesterday i was trying to you know going through 00:41:30.940 --> 00:41:36.020 this with my wife and her online line i was seeing on the on the this thing 00:41:36.020 --> 00:41:41.880 about do you realize that all these people like to just log into like aa meetings 00:41:41.880 --> 00:41:46.400 online and expose themselves and masturbate online for the hell of it and that 00:41:46.400 --> 00:41:50.360 they have to keep kicking them out all the time at least the guys thinks this is funny i. 00:41:50.360 --> 00:41:52.700 Have not heard this about aa meetings. 00:41:52.700 --> 00:41:59.340 Constantly it is ridiculous i don't understand what's wrong with these fucking twisted because i. 00:41:59.340 --> 00:42:04.380 Guess they publicly post the login information to it because anybody is welcome, blah, blah, blah. 00:42:04.540 --> 00:42:11.960 And then random folks do that. I mean, I've heard of like web apps where that happens, 00:42:12.240 --> 00:42:17.980 you know, where like, like these chat roulette things and stuff like that, 00:42:18.020 --> 00:42:24.080 where the people who like participate in them just assume that like one out of 10, like ran, 00:42:24.260 --> 00:42:30.240 like the concept of some of these apps is you get connected with random people for video chats. Yeah. 00:42:31.210 --> 00:42:33.410 Which, okay, what are you going to expect? 00:42:33.410 --> 00:42:35.250 You're playing Russian roulette with that. 00:42:35.350 --> 00:42:38.870 Yeah, exactly. And then apparently a certain percentage of the time you just 00:42:38.870 --> 00:42:43.070 expect are going to be people doing things that maybe you would not. 00:42:43.110 --> 00:42:43.790 You don't want. 00:42:44.070 --> 00:42:47.430 You don't want. Although, you know, if the ratio is that high, 00:42:47.590 --> 00:42:50.210 I suppose the people participating actually do want that. 00:42:50.650 --> 00:42:54.830 I guess, yeah. I mean, they must know. I mean, you're obviously trying to find 00:42:54.830 --> 00:42:56.230 one of these, for God's sake. So anyway. 00:42:56.350 --> 00:43:00.170 Anyway, but AA is different. that is not like. 00:43:00.170 --> 00:43:02.990 That's me that's not what you're 00:43:02.990 --> 00:43:12.290 there for no no no so so let's see i'm going through here uh let's talk a little 00:43:12.290 --> 00:43:17.910 bit about something that you probably wouldn't bring up um at this moment so 00:43:17.910 --> 00:43:20.570 this week we got new inflation data oh you're. 00:43:20.570 --> 00:43:22.450 Gonna do economy stuff okay go for it. 00:43:22.450 --> 00:43:25.950 Do some economy stuff because there's been a whole bunch of economy stuff last 00:43:25.950 --> 00:43:29.510 Last week we had this, like everybody for some reason, there was the Japanese 00:43:29.510 --> 00:43:31.670 stock market had like tanked. 00:43:32.090 --> 00:43:35.150 I'm trying to remember exactly the main reason. 00:43:35.150 --> 00:43:39.990 There was a day where, and I remember it was, it was over the weekend. 00:43:40.230 --> 00:43:41.450 It was like about a couple of weeks ago. 00:43:41.510 --> 00:43:45.410 We were coming in, like it was Sunday night and we started getting all these 00:43:45.410 --> 00:43:49.450 alerts that Japan was going crazy. It was crashing. 00:43:49.710 --> 00:43:54.730 It would be horrible. The, the, the, the futures for the U S markets were way 00:43:54.730 --> 00:43:56.650 down. Europe was having issues, too. 00:43:57.230 --> 00:44:02.890 And, you know, the Japanese markets actually had like a really huge one day crash. 00:44:03.170 --> 00:44:08.730 It was not a great day in the U.S. either. But then things seem to have popped 00:44:08.730 --> 00:44:11.650 back pretty quickly. But what was going on? 00:44:11.810 --> 00:44:16.550 What's it was fears of this and there was going to be a recession after all 00:44:16.550 --> 00:44:17.790 and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:44:17.790 --> 00:44:25.370 Okay, the whole thing about the whole thing with Japan had to do with, 00:44:26.070 --> 00:44:28.990 this this yen carry trade that's been going on 00:44:28.990 --> 00:44:32.170 for a long time okay and the 00:44:32.170 --> 00:44:38.310 what what's happened is that the the yen has been cheap and gotten cheaper i 00:44:38.310 --> 00:44:41.710 mean we've talked about it on the slack okay one of our one of our listeners 00:44:41.710 --> 00:44:45.770 pete was talking about going to japan went on a trip to japan and we're talking 00:44:45.770 --> 00:44:49.510 about all the yen the yen he actually was. 00:44:49.510 --> 00:44:52.110 On the show talking about that trip right after he got back. 00:44:52.110 --> 00:44:55.050 It was i mean the yen dropped from i 00:44:55.050 --> 00:44:57.990 remember when i i worked for a japanese company for many years and 00:44:57.990 --> 00:45:01.190 we were always very concerned about the yen dollar exchange 00:45:01.190 --> 00:45:05.170 rate in large part because we japanese companies unlike 00:45:05.170 --> 00:45:08.230 most american companies they're not still have 00:45:08.230 --> 00:45:11.550 not as diversified in terms of their manufacturing base 00:45:11.550 --> 00:45:14.350 even though they are diversified not like 00:45:14.350 --> 00:45:18.810 it used to be there was a hundred percent japanese manufacture a 00:45:18.810 --> 00:45:21.650 hundred still they have a 00:45:21.650 --> 00:45:25.270 bigger concentration of exposure to the yen than i 00:45:25.270 --> 00:45:28.070 would say that almost any american multinational or 00:45:28.070 --> 00:45:31.530 even european multinational in my experience okay okay and 00:45:31.530 --> 00:45:37.990 so when the yen got very strong or you know it it really did impact our our 00:45:37.990 --> 00:45:41.530 pricing and sales and we were always very concerned about that and we were actually 00:45:41.530 --> 00:45:45.950 talking our meetings how well if the yen gets to this level of whatever to 80 00:45:45.950 --> 00:45:49.210 we're talking about at that point you know that that That would be pretty painful, 00:45:49.350 --> 00:45:51.130 blah, blah, blah, whatever, and so forth right now. 00:45:51.210 --> 00:45:54.030 So the yen right now, we're talking about 80. 00:45:54.170 --> 00:46:00.010 This was about 12, 13 years ago. We're talking about a yen that was about 160, like right now, okay? 00:46:00.390 --> 00:46:04.290 It's a massive, massive devaluation of yen. 00:46:04.470 --> 00:46:09.630 It's made everything in Japan stupidly cheap compared to how it used to be. 00:46:09.630 --> 00:46:18.650 But it seemed that there had been a big swing in yen dollar in the opposite 00:46:18.650 --> 00:46:22.650 direction about a couple of weeks ago. 00:46:22.910 --> 00:46:25.170 And the thing is that a lot of people... 00:46:26.760 --> 00:46:36.940 They do a lot of trading. They borrow in yen because the interest rates in Japan have been so low. 00:46:37.820 --> 00:46:42.740 They will go and they will borrow in yen at almost 0%. And then, 00:46:42.800 --> 00:46:44.620 you know, do investments in dollars. 00:46:45.340 --> 00:46:49.620 They do this trade that depends on where the currencies are. 00:46:49.620 --> 00:46:52.660 And somewhere earlier this month like 00:46:52.660 --> 00:46:55.900 around you know there was in in 00:46:55.900 --> 00:47:01.580 the last couple of months there was a big shift in the yen okay we had one that 00:47:01.580 --> 00:47:06.480 it went from it when it was at 160 it dropped really quickly down to 7th down 00:47:06.480 --> 00:47:14.160 to 144 okay so it's a very quick shift okay and apparently a lot 00:47:14.340 --> 00:47:17.860 of that stock trading was related to 00:47:17.860 --> 00:47:20.820 unwinding a whole bunch of positions that that were 00:47:20.820 --> 00:47:24.480 very exposed to that currency shift and 00:47:24.480 --> 00:47:28.920 that's why all of a sudden it had nothing we're talking about where's a recession 00:47:28.920 --> 00:47:34.900 economics or whatever no it's because so many people have plowed so much money 00:47:34.900 --> 00:47:39.940 into this yen carry trade that when the fucking yen went like it was at ones 00:47:39.940 --> 00:47:41.580 you know at the end of July, 00:47:41.680 --> 00:47:45.440 it was like 160 and it dropped all of a sudden to 144. 00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:51.460 It fucking caught people off guard because that was a huge, huge shift in a 00:47:51.460 --> 00:47:53.960 very short amount of time. And. 00:47:55.230 --> 00:47:59.270 It went and it spooked people, and then all of a sudden people were dumping 00:47:59.270 --> 00:48:04.010 the stocks because people will do these moves. 00:48:04.070 --> 00:48:09.690 So they were borrowing the money, purchase the stocks, then take those, 00:48:09.850 --> 00:48:12.210 margin those, purchase other assets. 00:48:12.310 --> 00:48:14.770 So you've got this sequence of assets. 00:48:15.490 --> 00:48:19.990 And if all of a sudden one of them moves in a direction you don't want, 00:48:20.190 --> 00:48:24.670 it winds up unraveling the trade. So you have to go and say, oh, shit. 00:48:25.390 --> 00:48:29.970 I, damn it, I, you know, I borrowed that money over there. 00:48:30.050 --> 00:48:33.870 Now I got to pay that money back. So I got to sell the shares and then I got 00:48:33.870 --> 00:48:38.110 to go sell those shares and then give that money back, the money back that I borrowed in yen. 00:48:38.490 --> 00:48:41.030 There's this entire sequence of how the assets have been tied. 00:48:41.150 --> 00:48:43.570 And so that's what happened there in Japan. 00:48:43.850 --> 00:48:46.850 Obviously, everybody sees that that huge sell off. 00:48:47.290 --> 00:48:51.670 People freaked out and it sparked other sell offs at the same time. 00:48:52.190 --> 00:48:55.990 But it had nothing to do with the economic data. It really had more to do with 00:48:55.990 --> 00:49:04.830 that sudden move into yen and how it impacted how people trade in the yen, borrow, 00:49:05.110 --> 00:49:07.510 and invest in other places because 00:49:07.510 --> 00:49:11.290 of the ultra low interest rates that Japan has had for a long time. 00:49:11.550 --> 00:49:14.690 And that's all it really was related to. 00:49:14.930 --> 00:49:22.450 Because at the time it was happening, all the coverage was frankly not around Japan-specific stuff. 00:49:22.630 --> 00:49:22.790 No. 00:49:22.790 --> 00:49:26.330 It was like, what's happening in Japan is a warning for the rest of the world 00:49:26.330 --> 00:49:29.010 and everything else is going to go and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 00:49:29.590 --> 00:49:33.270 And then one week later, nothing happened. No, it had nothing to do with any of that. 00:49:34.170 --> 00:49:36.830 And so, yeah, like everything bounced right back. 00:49:37.750 --> 00:49:42.250 Well, because, you know, the sell-off happened. 00:49:42.310 --> 00:49:45.570 I mean, people took the losses, paid back, whatever. 00:49:45.570 --> 00:49:52.710 I mean, there is a situation right now where, at this point, 00:49:52.790 --> 00:49:59.070 there is still a record amount of people that are holding cash. 00:49:59.730 --> 00:50:05.430 Cash holdings are in ridiculous levels all around. 00:50:06.050 --> 00:50:09.810 One of the reasons why people have been holding more cash recently is because 00:50:09.810 --> 00:50:16.330 interest rates have been high. Okay, so you'll hold cash and invest it and get 5, 6%. 00:50:18.200 --> 00:50:22.780 You know, versus how it used to be like 10 years ago, where if you had cash 00:50:22.780 --> 00:50:25.500 or if you were gaining half percent or one, you were lucky. 00:50:26.100 --> 00:50:30.820 So so there's been a lot more of a return on cash with higher interest rates. 00:50:31.400 --> 00:50:36.480 But if you want a higher return, the only place that you can turn to is to stocks. 00:50:36.920 --> 00:50:42.840 I mean, that really is you either you have to go into stocks because even bonds 00:50:42.840 --> 00:50:46.800 now bonds are probably going to have a rally with interest rates going down. 00:50:46.800 --> 00:50:52.440 But you're in an environment right now where interest rates are high. 00:50:53.320 --> 00:50:58.520 Unemployment is still at good levels. Economic activity is still at good levels. 00:50:58.720 --> 00:51:05.280 All the economic data that we've had has been solid. Consumer spending in July was robust. 00:51:05.740 --> 00:51:09.200 Now, there was that one jobs report that freaked people out. 00:51:09.200 --> 00:51:15.680 But then, you know, because it was slightly above, but at the same time, 00:51:15.680 --> 00:51:20.400 because they thought, well, that's a signal that maybe spending is bad or profits 00:51:20.400 --> 00:51:24.080 are not going to be good by companies, but companies that reported good profits, 00:51:24.380 --> 00:51:30.720 still the number of unemployment number, it came in like maybe off by 10,000. 00:51:30.720 --> 00:51:32.640 But then there were a whole bunch of adjustments that showed, 00:51:32.680 --> 00:51:35.440 ah, the numbers are about in line with what everybody expected. 00:51:35.640 --> 00:51:43.120 And then you also had this inflation number that showed that inflation is continuing to come down. 00:51:43.860 --> 00:51:50.180 But the one thing is that all of this points to the fact that the Fed will lower interest rates. 00:51:50.180 --> 00:51:56.420 And if the Fed lowers interest rates, what people are going to do is borrow 00:51:56.420 --> 00:52:02.280 more money and invest because you could make more money with lower rates. 00:52:02.340 --> 00:52:06.120 If you borrow money, it's as simple as that. Look, if you, you know, 00:52:06.140 --> 00:52:12.080 lower rates right now at this economy, which has been doing good, 00:52:12.180 --> 00:52:19.200 you get a drop in the mortgage rate right now from six and a half back to like five, four and a half. 00:52:21.230 --> 00:52:28.970 There is so much pent-up demand for people to buy homes that have been holding 00:52:28.970 --> 00:52:31.170 off because rates are too high. 00:52:32.210 --> 00:52:36.990 Buying automobiles. You think about companies borrowing money and investing. 00:52:37.170 --> 00:52:41.410 You do that kind of a rate drop, it's going to drive the economy. 00:52:41.930 --> 00:52:47.150 And rates dropping means that those people with cash, what are they going to 00:52:47.150 --> 00:52:49.450 want to do with the money? They're going to want to buy more stocks. 00:52:49.770 --> 00:52:53.010 They're going to want to invest. They don't want to be sitting on fucking cash, 00:52:53.190 --> 00:52:58.470 earning and losing, you know, going from 5% earnings to two and a half. 00:52:59.110 --> 00:53:03.130 Also, your return is down 50%. No, they're going to want to move the money into 00:53:03.130 --> 00:53:04.870 some other assets to make more money. 00:53:04.950 --> 00:53:10.650 So I think that it was kind of a what happened with that stock market drop is 00:53:10.650 --> 00:53:12.350 that people didn't understand what the hell it was. 00:53:12.430 --> 00:53:16.270 And they were trying to say, oh, it's a signal of this, that or whatever. 00:53:16.470 --> 00:53:19.650 Then all the economic data came in and said, nah, it's none of that shit. 00:53:20.430 --> 00:53:23.610 So because it was none of that shit then people are like oh okay well never 00:53:23.610 --> 00:53:29.910 mind and then off to the races again yeah basically because the economy has been doing really well. 00:53:31.670 --> 00:53:39.510 You know the one thing that we've had the last couple of years has been a lot of investment, 00:53:40.230 --> 00:53:47.270 in america and a lot of things that are creating jobs and that are creating 00:53:47.270 --> 00:53:54.970 things that are or have long-term returns on that investment, when you fix up bridges, 00:53:55.150 --> 00:53:59.790 when you're putting all this money towards Inflation Reduction Act money, 00:53:59.970 --> 00:54:03.990 towards renewable energy projects, 00:54:04.290 --> 00:54:09.010 when you're doing all this stuff for what you would call the CHIPS Act, 00:54:09.170 --> 00:54:12.390 all that CHIPS manufacturing, 00:54:12.750 --> 00:54:16.810 all of those things have big multiplier effects in the economy. 00:54:16.810 --> 00:54:22.850 And the one thing about those is that they're not like one time hits because 00:54:22.850 --> 00:54:26.870 you build a factory that you spent five hundred million dollars. 00:54:27.230 --> 00:54:30.290 That factory then is going to employ thousands of people. 00:54:30.430 --> 00:54:35.630 Then that's going to have an effect. It's not like I just gave people a thousand 00:54:35.630 --> 00:54:37.130 dollars to spend it on alcohol. 00:54:37.550 --> 00:54:40.250 Now, yeah, that has an effect. One time you took a vacation, 00:54:40.370 --> 00:54:43.950 you're done. Now, we're talking about money that's being invested, 00:54:44.050 --> 00:54:47.590 that's creating manufacturing jobs, that's going to create permanent jobs, 00:54:47.770 --> 00:54:51.810 that then has an effect all around multiplier around those communities. 00:54:53.390 --> 00:54:59.130 You know, we talk about infrastructure and the effect it has on long-term on 00:54:59.130 --> 00:55:05.290 economies and how it allows certain places to have progress. 00:55:06.310 --> 00:55:09.910 Remember when we had that ship that hit that bridge in Baltimore? 00:55:10.050 --> 00:55:10.850 Yes, yes, of course. 00:55:11.010 --> 00:55:17.090 And how big of a negative economic impact it has when you cut off a bridge when 00:55:17.090 --> 00:55:18.870 you don't have that access. 00:55:18.870 --> 00:55:23.030 But when you invest in infrastructure and then all of a sudden goods can flow 00:55:23.030 --> 00:55:29.590 free or people can go and say, hey, oh, I'm going to put my wheat in the farm 00:55:29.590 --> 00:55:31.350 and I can bring it to market faster. 00:55:31.470 --> 00:55:34.750 It allows me to be able to sell more. That means that I'm going to be able to 00:55:34.750 --> 00:55:36.350 take advantage of my opportunity. 00:55:36.530 --> 00:55:39.390 It's a multiplier effect, all these damn things. things 00:55:39.390 --> 00:55:43.190 it's these are not this is not this is 00:55:43.190 --> 00:55:47.110 very different economics than from trickle down economics trickle 00:55:47.110 --> 00:55:51.870 down economics is this thing where we just hey you're rich we're gonna let you 00:55:51.870 --> 00:55:57.570 make more money well rich guy x for the most part what they do i mean how many 00:55:57.570 --> 00:56:01.810 fucking yachts can they buy as well as gordon get you know as charlie she told 00:56:01.810 --> 00:56:03.890 gordon gecko in that in wall 00:56:03.930 --> 00:56:07.450 street i mean they're not going to invest it for 00:56:07.450 --> 00:56:10.750 the most part you already got 100 billion dollars you 00:56:10.750 --> 00:56:13.430 know you got 120 billion a lot of these 00:56:13.430 --> 00:56:17.230 people just sit on the money but when you push it on the other direction it 00:56:17.230 --> 00:56:21.350 has sustained economic 00:56:21.350 --> 00:56:24.290 impact it's it's the reason 00:56:24.290 --> 00:56:28.490 why you've have gotten from the 00:56:28.490 --> 00:56:34.770 the trump tax cuts 2018 they showed very little economic impact almost none 00:56:34.770 --> 00:56:38.810 these things that have happened the last couple of years in the biden administration 00:56:38.810 --> 00:56:44.990 have been very targeted into specific things that will provide long-term returns 00:56:44.990 --> 00:56:48.250 that have provided Why did, for example. 00:56:48.430 --> 00:56:56.710 You're looking at the best wage gains that lower and middle income people have 00:56:56.710 --> 00:56:59.010 had the last 20, 30 years. 00:57:00.610 --> 00:57:07.250 And it's also done that the economy, even after having to spike from some of 00:57:07.250 --> 00:57:10.110 the cash that people had in their pockets because their balance sheets are healthier 00:57:10.110 --> 00:57:11.150 and all this other stuff. 00:57:13.380 --> 00:57:17.660 It's it's provider right now that everybody's like well we thought we're going 00:57:17.660 --> 00:57:24.120 to go in a recession and people are now looking at it more it's like well apparently not because, 00:57:24.620 --> 00:57:28.480 the one great thing that the fed has done is that by keeping rates high and 00:57:28.480 --> 00:57:32.760 not having to resort to like things like quantitative easing and other things 00:57:32.760 --> 00:57:36.020 which means that they're they're putting money in the economy but that's but 00:57:36.020 --> 00:57:42.740 but that that didn't have a direct effect on people's pocket What you've got right now is that, hey, 00:57:42.880 --> 00:57:49.340 I drop half a point right now on quarter point or half a point on the on the Fed funds rate. 00:57:49.720 --> 00:57:53.040 Credit card rates are going down. Home equity loan rates are going down. 00:57:53.120 --> 00:57:56.860 Mortgage rates are going down. All these things. These are all things that every 00:57:56.860 --> 00:58:01.580 American will have money in their pocket immediately. 00:58:01.580 --> 00:58:07.980 Immediately and so and those tools right now are readily available at the fed 00:58:07.980 --> 00:58:14.640 to act right now especially now that they're seeing that inflation is coming under control back. 00:58:14.640 --> 00:58:15.800 To quote-unquote normal. 00:58:15.800 --> 00:58:18.560 Back getting back close to normal in. 00:58:18.560 --> 00:58:22.680 The latest update it was under three percent again which was back roughly where 00:58:22.680 --> 00:58:25.340 it was before pandemic right yeah. 00:58:25.340 --> 00:58:30.460 Getting close to that yes And I and I and I think that a lot of people that 00:58:30.460 --> 00:58:33.960 were like poo pooing this whole thing about transitory effects or whatever, 00:58:34.060 --> 00:58:37.300 whatnot, many people on TV talking out of their ass. 00:58:37.340 --> 00:58:41.500 And I notice now that a lot of those people aren't even showing up on TV anymore right now. 00:58:43.080 --> 00:58:46.280 One of the things is like, oh, this Fed thing saying the transitory is bullshit. 00:58:46.400 --> 00:58:49.080 Look, one of the things that there were a whole bunch of transitory effects 00:58:49.080 --> 00:58:51.780 and everybody keeps forgetting that all of a sudden we had a fucking Putin startup. 00:58:51.860 --> 00:58:57.720 Well, yeah, the fundamental problem with that was just like wording and expectation setting, right? 00:58:57.800 --> 00:59:03.320 Like when you say transitory people, the expectation that comes to a normal 00:59:03.320 --> 00:59:06.280 three months or not, even people are thinking weeks. 00:59:06.620 --> 00:59:13.720 Weeks, you know? No, it's not that things don't happen that fast in a supply chain economy. 00:59:14.160 --> 00:59:19.360 It doesn't move that fast, especially not when you get an exogenous shock like 00:59:19.360 --> 00:59:22.660 a fucking war that spikes energy prices, too. 00:59:22.920 --> 00:59:26.160 Well, and I'd love to hear how long they were really thinking when they said 00:59:26.160 --> 00:59:28.820 the word transitory. But, like, it might have. 00:59:28.840 --> 00:59:34.780 I think it was more like a two-year window because that is how long it took for supply. Listen. 00:59:34.900 --> 00:59:36.700 Well, right. Maybe it's just in my head. 00:59:36.700 --> 00:59:39.040 Well, here's the thing. 00:59:39.240 --> 00:59:45.340 Like, if they were thinking two years, the word transitory should never have 00:59:45.340 --> 00:59:49.020 come out of their fucking mouth because that's not how people interpret the 00:59:49.020 --> 00:59:50.460 word. You know what I mean? 00:59:50.560 --> 00:59:51.480 Maybe that's – Well. 00:59:51.780 --> 00:59:55.540 Like every – Okay. Here's the thing. 00:59:55.700 --> 01:00:00.360 I mean, to some degree, everything is transitory, you know? 01:00:01.180 --> 01:00:05.080 Well, yes and no because – no, no, no. Because there's structural change and 01:00:05.080 --> 01:00:06.500 there's transitory change. Yes. 01:00:06.700 --> 01:00:08.920 And that's what I'm saying. 01:00:08.960 --> 01:00:13.980 The whole point about saying transitory is that what happened with the pandemic 01:00:13.980 --> 01:00:15.840 was not a structural change. 01:00:16.080 --> 01:00:19.920 Right. Well, and again, like there were better ways to say that. 01:00:20.020 --> 01:00:23.880 Right. Like I understand what you're getting at. 01:00:23.980 --> 01:00:28.820 Like this was this is the kind of change that will eventually revert to the 01:00:28.820 --> 01:00:31.460 previous state is one thing. 01:00:32.680 --> 01:00:36.000 Saying transitory implies it's going to be short. 01:00:36.400 --> 01:00:39.480 And so they just screwed themselves with the terminology. 01:00:39.560 --> 01:00:50.400 And the reason is that you may be quite right that from an expert point of view, 01:00:50.500 --> 01:00:54.940 everybody who heard that was clear that, oh, transitory just means not permanent. 01:00:55.600 --> 01:00:59.460 Right. It's not a structural change. 01:00:59.560 --> 01:01:06.860 It's not like, hey, all of a sudden, The port capacity in the West Coast got 01:01:06.860 --> 01:01:12.600 reduced by 50% permanently, and we're not going to recover for 20 years. 01:01:12.700 --> 01:01:16.440 And we have no plans of increasing it. That's not transitory. 01:01:16.540 --> 01:01:20.980 But a spike in shipping rates, for example, that happened. 01:01:21.960 --> 01:01:26.660 That went from like $2,000 a container from China to $20,000 to $30,000 a container 01:01:26.660 --> 01:01:28.760 from China, that that was for a year. 01:01:28.820 --> 01:01:33.780 The following year, by the end of the second year, it was back to $2,000, $3,000. Right. Okay? 01:01:34.420 --> 01:01:38.260 And those are the things that I'm talking about. But I do think, 01:01:38.260 --> 01:01:44.040 by the way, that the thing about the window is, and what really got more messed 01:01:44.040 --> 01:01:48.420 up about the transitory thing, it is the stupid war. 01:01:48.980 --> 01:01:52.740 Right. Okay. OK, I people like they weren't counting on that. 01:01:52.820 --> 01:01:53.860 They were like, OK, pandemic. 01:01:53.960 --> 01:01:57.400 We factored that in, but they did not factor in. Let's have a new war. 01:01:58.000 --> 01:02:04.740 Exactly. And I I'm telling you that that that damn war exacerbated the effects 01:02:04.740 --> 01:02:08.660 of inflation and spiked them for another 18 to 20 months. 01:02:09.100 --> 01:02:13.620 OK, and right when they were right when everything was trailing off, 01:02:13.760 --> 01:02:20.040 really those levels of inflation that we're getting now should have been here in about 2022. 01:02:20.580 --> 01:02:25.840 But when you've got that massive spike in energy prices all of a sudden, 01:02:25.880 --> 01:02:30.740 and also supply constraints with food, because you got to remember that the 01:02:30.740 --> 01:02:32.340 war not just constrained energy, 01:02:32.560 --> 01:02:37.340 but wheat production, wheat exports from the Ukraine, 01:02:37.600 --> 01:02:43.680 one of the biggest exports, those were shut down when the war started. 01:02:43.820 --> 01:02:46.620 So it had an effect on energy and it had an 01:02:46.620 --> 01:02:50.360 effect on food and it was a massive effect right when 01:02:50.360 --> 01:02:53.580 you know we thought everything's going and then you get 01:02:53.580 --> 01:02:56.520 fucking putin started word i'm like oh fuck this shit 01:02:56.520 --> 01:03:04.640 well you know so yeah it it really delayed everything substantially and i and 01:03:04.640 --> 01:03:09.680 i i i i think that if you look at where everything was trending before the war 01:03:09.680 --> 01:03:15.840 we would have gotten there earlier but But that just impacted everything. 01:03:15.980 --> 01:03:19.200 I mean, it's impacted. I mean, that's stupid war. It's impacted air travel, 01:03:19.400 --> 01:03:23.660 a whole bunch of commerce in terms of shipping, 01:03:24.100 --> 01:03:31.640 you know, food prices, energy prices, so many things at the same time. 01:03:31.880 --> 01:03:36.760 Now, one thing that people like right now are also they keep getting worried 01:03:36.760 --> 01:03:41.400 about companies reporting pullbacks and spending in certain areas. 01:03:41.400 --> 01:03:43.440 And they're like, well, what's happening? 01:03:43.500 --> 01:03:47.280 Why is this company also saying demand is down 5%? But the economy is not down. 01:03:48.340 --> 01:03:53.560 We also had a whole bunch of really weird shifts the last couple of years between 01:03:53.560 --> 01:03:58.180 how people allocated their spending between services and goods. 01:03:58.780 --> 01:03:59.300 Okay. 01:03:59.400 --> 01:03:59.600 Okay. 01:04:00.580 --> 01:04:02.720 You had this massive shutdown of 01:04:02.720 --> 01:04:07.260 services that all of a sudden spiked in a ridiculous way, goods purchases. 01:04:07.940 --> 01:04:13.160 I mean, you know, factories that did refrigerators, washing machines, 01:04:13.360 --> 01:04:16.540 all this other stuff, whatever, could not keep up to the demand. 01:04:16.760 --> 01:04:18.980 I mean, computers, like other stuff and whatever. 01:04:19.300 --> 01:04:23.920 And then a whole bunch of that then started coming back down to a certain extent. 01:04:24.780 --> 01:04:30.820 You're seeing people right now also that we're spending a lot of money on like, 01:04:31.680 --> 01:04:38.200 travel and experiences all of a sudden shifting this money again to some some other stuff and 01:04:38.520 --> 01:04:43.100 so what you're seeing is it's not that the economy is going down is that people 01:04:43.100 --> 01:04:51.260 have done some really really sharp shifts that normally don't happen in recent 01:04:51.260 --> 01:04:55.380 you know in the economy where they moved from goods, 01:04:55.960 --> 01:05:01.980 all of a sudden the goods demand soared, then they dropped, then they moved 01:05:01.980 --> 01:05:05.560 to, oh shit, we're traveling, like there's no tomorrow. 01:05:06.120 --> 01:05:08.800 And then all of a sudden, oh, well, we've traveled way too much. 01:05:08.820 --> 01:05:10.920 Okay, and we went to too many fucking restaurants. 01:05:11.500 --> 01:05:14.400 Let's get back at that. Let's spend on something else, whatever the fuck it 01:05:14.400 --> 01:05:15.240 is. Let's save some money. 01:05:16.300 --> 01:05:19.920 Even Home Depot was seeing some stuff, but you see that the overall spending 01:05:19.920 --> 01:05:24.720 in the economy isn't going down. But also people are shifting money where, 01:05:24.840 --> 01:05:29.660 well, we spent so much money on the vacation, so let's not shop at the more 01:05:29.660 --> 01:05:31.280 expensive place. Let's go back to Walmart. 01:05:31.820 --> 01:05:32.760 Right. Okay. 01:05:33.300 --> 01:05:36.740 Which Walmart had seen, you know, softening demand and all of a sudden Walmart 01:05:36.740 --> 01:05:43.340 reported gangbuster results because they're like the shifts that have been going on, 01:05:43.500 --> 01:05:53.940 Sam, it's shifts in spending that in four or five years that maybe you see normally over 15, 20 years, 01:05:54.040 --> 01:05:58.880 all of a sudden happened like in a very, very compressed timeframe. 01:06:00.040 --> 01:06:05.900 And so I think that that's also, that data is throwing people off when they're seeing that. 01:06:06.020 --> 01:06:11.520 And, and, you know, all of a sudden you see McDonald's say sales are down 5%, 01:06:11.520 --> 01:06:14.160 but then you see casual restaurant spending is actually up. 01:06:14.540 --> 01:06:14.960 Right. 01:06:15.500 --> 01:06:20.360 As an aggregate. So you're like, okay, so what, what's going on? You know, where's this? 01:06:20.360 --> 01:06:25.960 I saw someone describe that as just like, you know, McDonald's prices went up 01:06:25.960 --> 01:06:31.320 enough that when people were otherwise considering McDonald's would be like, 01:06:31.400 --> 01:06:34.620 well, if we're going to spend this much anyway, why don't we go somewhere nicer? 01:06:34.960 --> 01:06:38.260 We're going to a nicer place. Exactly. That, that was, that was the one thing 01:06:38.260 --> 01:06:39.100 I was like, what the hell? 01:06:39.220 --> 01:06:43.040 I mean, what the fuck? If I'm going to pay $14 a fucking McDonald's that I might 01:06:43.040 --> 01:06:44.720 just go $14 and go to fucking Chili's. 01:06:46.000 --> 01:06:51.280 I mean, yeah. Yeah. And so I think that that that has been a big and that's 01:06:51.280 --> 01:06:56.580 been I'll tell you, those are the kind of crazy shifts that you're seeing people making. 01:06:56.680 --> 01:07:00.720 And that sometimes what's happening is that people see the results that one 01:07:00.720 --> 01:07:04.620 company is reporting and they think, oh, my God, people are not buying. No, no, no, no, no. 01:07:05.140 --> 01:07:08.980 People have been reconsidering their purchasing in a crazy way to like that, 01:07:09.060 --> 01:07:12.860 like we've never seen the likes of before. okay so so. 01:07:12.860 --> 01:07:17.980 Bottom line economy is still doing great and people. 01:07:17.980 --> 01:07:18.680 Are starting. 01:07:18.680 --> 01:07:21.060 To finally notice it maybe. 01:07:21.060 --> 01:07:25.980 Yes and not just that that i think people are feeling better because inflation 01:07:25.980 --> 01:07:30.440 is going down but not just that but that the good news is that we're well positioned 01:07:30.440 --> 01:07:37.000 to maintain momentum in the economy because the fed has the tools to be able to help people, 01:07:38.810 --> 01:07:39.930 with lower interest rates. 01:07:40.210 --> 01:07:45.670 Okay. Now, as will surprise absolutely no one, when we switch to my topic, 01:07:45.710 --> 01:07:46.750 I'm going to be talking politics, 01:07:46.990 --> 01:07:53.630 is do we have enough time left that anything the Fed does actually will impact 01:07:53.630 --> 01:07:55.450 what people feel before November? 01:07:56.070 --> 01:08:01.490 Yes. I will tell you that because the Fed cut rate is, they're expecting that 01:08:01.490 --> 01:08:03.010 the Fed will cut rates in September. 01:08:03.010 --> 01:08:11.390 Right now, just the expectation of that has created a surge in mortgage refis 01:08:11.390 --> 01:08:16.290 of over 100% of where we were about a month ago. Okay? 01:08:17.210 --> 01:08:20.730 That Fed rate cut will spur that even more. 01:08:21.090 --> 01:08:28.690 So this isn't something where the average voter will feel a difference in six 01:08:28.690 --> 01:08:31.390 to nine months. You think they'll actually feel a difference right away? 01:08:31.390 --> 01:08:35.490 They're going to see all of a sudden, oh, wait, oh, that's more affordable. 01:08:35.650 --> 01:08:41.570 Oh, wait, oh, my credit card payment went down. Oh, yeah, that's going to be an immediate effect. 01:08:42.030 --> 01:08:47.650 Okay. Now, even when people are affected immediately, sometimes it takes a while 01:08:47.650 --> 01:08:52.670 for them to notice that they're affected and to internalize, 01:08:52.670 --> 01:08:54.130 oh, yeah, something actually changed. 01:08:54.290 --> 01:09:00.410 I think that my experience has been that interest rates, especially when mortgage 01:09:00.410 --> 01:09:04.290 rates go down and credit card rates go down, that gets noticed really quick. 01:09:04.630 --> 01:09:05.030 Okay. 01:09:05.950 --> 01:09:07.330 A lot faster than other things. 01:09:07.670 --> 01:09:15.470 So you think this will actually just be additional positive tailwinds for the 01:09:15.470 --> 01:09:16.810 Democrats coming into November? 01:09:17.310 --> 01:09:19.050 Oh, hell yeah. Okay. Yeah. 01:09:19.310 --> 01:09:23.670 As opposed to like a few weeks ago when people were like, oh shit, recession. 01:09:24.590 --> 01:09:28.430 No, no, you're not going to get a recession. No, no, no. Fed's cutting rates 01:09:28.430 --> 01:09:32.390 next month. Not going to get a recession. and yeah, not happening. 01:09:32.750 --> 01:09:37.110 Okay. Anything else you want to sub up or can we take a break and move on? 01:09:37.490 --> 01:09:38.830 We can take a break and move on. 01:09:39.010 --> 01:09:40.190 Okay, here we go. 01:09:41.390 --> 01:09:47.890 You're supposed to say do-do-do. Do-do-do! Alex Zemzula! 01:09:49.390 --> 01:09:53.230 Alex Zemzula is awesome. Its videos are fun. 01:09:53.490 --> 01:10:00.210 And today, once again, we have one of our most loyal subscribers here to tell 01:10:00.210 --> 01:10:01.790 you how awesome Alex Zemzula is. 01:10:02.250 --> 01:10:08.950 I'd say, on a rate from 1 to 10, Alex Zemzula is awesome at, I don't know, 37? 01:10:09.550 --> 01:10:12.650 82? he's pretty radical his 01:10:12.650 --> 01:10:16.610 videos are phenomenal they're full of creativity and 01:10:16.610 --> 01:10:19.810 they're so funny and exciting to watch 01:10:19.810 --> 01:10:22.790 wow what happened to your voice then Amy 01:10:22.790 --> 01:10:30.270 was that dad pretending to be you because the audio was distorted when it really 01:10:30.270 --> 01:10:41.110 wasn't because I told him to yes good job on remembering dad do do do Okay. 01:10:41.110 --> 01:10:45.470 We're back. So like, this segment will be politics in general, 01:10:45.510 --> 01:10:51.170 but as will become more and more common as we are getting really close to the 01:10:51.170 --> 01:10:54.150 end here, I will start out with an election graphs update. 01:10:54.310 --> 01:10:58.730 So last week, I talked about it how, you know, we'd had this big move towards 01:10:58.730 --> 01:11:05.190 Harris after Biden dropped out, but then we had a little bit of a bump up back towards Trump. 01:11:05.330 --> 01:11:10.330 And And that's where we were, I think, last week. Maybe it started to reverse again. 01:11:10.450 --> 01:11:14.050 This last week, things have been moving back towards Harris again. 01:11:14.090 --> 01:11:20.310 So that little bump back towards Trump, which frankly was only really in Pennsylvania. 01:11:20.670 --> 01:11:29.490 And maybe it was just a coincidence with what pollsters were in the field in Pennsylvania. 01:11:30.010 --> 01:11:33.750 Like everywhere else has continued to move towards Harris. And Pennsylvania 01:11:33.750 --> 01:11:35.890 has started to move back towards Harris again. 01:11:36.930 --> 01:11:44.630 So over the last couple of weeks, we now have Harris firmly in the lead, 01:11:44.730 --> 01:11:49.310 in the lead in the national polls, in the lead when you look at state polls 01:11:49.310 --> 01:11:51.370 like I do on electiongraphs.com as well. 01:11:51.370 --> 01:11:58.730 That need that lead is still narrow, but about a percent in the, 01:11:58.730 --> 01:12:03.710 in the tipping point state right now, which is close enough that like, Hey, 01:12:04.620 --> 01:12:08.720 the polls in 2016 and 2020 were off 01:12:08.720 --> 01:12:13.760 by more than 1% underestimating the Republicans in the last two cycles. 01:12:14.020 --> 01:12:21.620 So if they do that again, Harris being leading in the critical states by about 1% isn't enough. 01:12:21.800 --> 01:12:25.740 She might still lose. So like no room for complacency yet. 01:12:25.840 --> 01:12:29.940 But things have been continuing to move in the Harris direction. 01:12:29.940 --> 01:12:35.220 They were really rapid right after Biden dropped out. 01:12:35.420 --> 01:12:41.920 It's been moving less quickly since then, but still moving generally in the 01:12:41.920 --> 01:12:44.000 Harris direction. A couple of things. 01:12:44.000 --> 01:12:46.700 Well, I think the important thing is it's been a consistent movement. 01:12:46.780 --> 01:12:50.640 It hasn't stopped. It's not like, you know. 01:12:50.640 --> 01:12:57.300 It hasn't stopped yet. All of the states that were sort of, I mean, the critical, 01:12:58.680 --> 01:13:03.720 Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, at the moment Biden dropped out, 01:13:03.940 --> 01:13:07.020 even if you looked at Harris averages, but certainly for Joe Biden, 01:13:07.140 --> 01:13:09.600 were all on the Trump side of the line. 01:13:09.760 --> 01:13:12.320 Now they are all on the Harris side of the line. 01:13:12.620 --> 01:13:19.620 Other states, Arizona in my poll average is now just barely on the blue side of the line. 01:13:20.620 --> 01:13:24.080 Nevada is very close on the Trump side. 01:13:24.340 --> 01:13:28.240 It's only a 0.2% Trump lead at the moment. It had actually been blue for a little 01:13:28.240 --> 01:13:30.060 bit, moved back with the latest poll. 01:13:30.900 --> 01:13:36.040 Georgia is close again. North Carolina is close again. 01:13:36.840 --> 01:13:41.560 And even states like Florida, they're not close in my poll averages yet, 01:13:41.640 --> 01:13:47.100 but they're not as red as they were a month ago. 01:13:48.300 --> 01:13:52.860 And so we're seeing that kind of movement everywhere. 01:13:53.160 --> 01:13:57.480 It is still continuing. It does not seem to have bottomed out quite yet. 01:13:57.660 --> 01:14:01.880 And in a few days, we've got the DNC starting. 01:14:02.040 --> 01:14:06.420 And a few days after that, we've got Trump legal shit happening. 01:14:06.700 --> 01:14:14.600 So I feel like we're probably not at the bottom yet. Like, I will fully admit 01:14:14.600 --> 01:14:18.340 that bump of polls back towards Trump had me doubting for a little while, 01:14:18.420 --> 01:14:21.140 but then a whole bunch more polls came in that got reversed again. 01:14:21.260 --> 01:14:26.200 And we're still like heading towards Harris and she's running on all cylinders 01:14:26.200 --> 01:14:27.860 and seems to be doing everything great. 01:14:28.100 --> 01:14:31.040 Whereas Trump seems to be flailing still. 01:14:31.140 --> 01:14:34.980 And we'll talk about that in a second. One more thing. One more thing I want 01:14:34.980 --> 01:14:37.820 to say about the current polling before we move on to that. 01:14:38.990 --> 01:14:42.090 This is one of those, oh, my God, that will never happen things. 01:14:42.230 --> 01:14:47.710 But I just want to say at the current configuration of where all the states 01:14:47.710 --> 01:14:49.670 are lined up in my poll averages, 01:14:49.850 --> 01:14:58.030 the chances of a 269 to 269 tie are higher than I have seen them in a long time. 01:14:58.290 --> 01:15:04.770 This is because basically if you take all of the states that right now Harris 01:15:04.770 --> 01:15:12.830 is ahead head in the polls, except Arizona, where she's only ahead by 0.2% at the moment. 01:15:13.470 --> 01:15:18.730 Give Arizona back to Trump, you end up in a 269-269 tie. 01:15:18.990 --> 01:15:25.370 My odds, depending on which of the models, range between a 1.7% chance of the 01:15:25.370 --> 01:15:29.650 tie to a 9.1% chance of the tie. 01:15:29.870 --> 01:15:33.110 That is annoyingly high 01:15:33.110 --> 01:15:36.030 because that would take you into 01:15:36.030 --> 01:15:38.830 the whole the house of representatives has to decide 01:15:38.830 --> 01:15:42.970 scenario and it would be the new house of representatives not the current house 01:15:42.970 --> 01:15:47.530 of representatives so that might change balance however it's not the house voting 01:15:47.530 --> 01:15:52.350 as a whole it's a house vote voting by state delegation which is republican 01:15:52.350 --> 01:15:57.310 dominated right now and even if the democrats take the house back, 01:15:57.630 --> 01:16:03.150 it is quite likely that the Republicans will still dominate in terms of state 01:16:03.150 --> 01:16:04.410 delegations in the house. 01:16:04.650 --> 01:16:10.090 And so the ties are pretty much still probably Trump wins. 01:16:11.290 --> 01:16:18.430 But anyway, you have Harris ahead in the straight, if you trust polls view the, in the, 01:16:19.370 --> 01:16:23.910 taking into, in the stats I do that take into account the poll errors in the 01:16:23.910 --> 01:16:26.570 previous few elections and the amount of time left. 01:16:26.810 --> 01:16:34.570 You now, for the first time this week, have Harris's odds of winning greater than Trump's. 01:16:34.610 --> 01:16:39.130 At the moment, I have Harris at 46.8%, Trump at 44%. 01:16:39.710 --> 01:16:44.250 But this is in the uniform swing mode, which I think is the closest of my models 01:16:44.250 --> 01:16:45.130 to what's probably true. 01:16:45.630 --> 01:16:49.310 But you have that 9.1% that throws it into the house. 01:16:51.390 --> 01:16:54.210 And that would still go to Trump. 01:16:54.270 --> 01:16:55.130 Yeah, that would be interesting. 01:16:55.550 --> 01:16:58.770 Oh, yeah, just a tad. You think January 6th was fun. 01:16:59.250 --> 01:17:04.530 Do January 6th. They certify the electoral results, but then there's no winner, 01:17:04.610 --> 01:17:07.090 and then it has to go into the House and start this kind of stuff. 01:17:08.210 --> 01:17:14.350 And of course, the way it works also, by the way, just to play out House of 01:17:14.350 --> 01:17:19.250 Cards slash West Wing scenarios for a second, the House determines the president, 01:17:19.330 --> 01:17:22.730 but the Senate determines the vice president. 01:17:22.730 --> 01:17:29.270 So you have potential scenarios where you could get like, you know, 01:17:29.270 --> 01:17:31.910 Trump is president, but Walls is vice president. 01:17:32.850 --> 01:17:34.490 You know, things like that. 01:17:34.570 --> 01:17:35.450 Oh, God. 01:17:37.950 --> 01:17:38.430 Anyway. 01:17:39.930 --> 01:17:40.890 Christ sakes. 01:17:41.570 --> 01:17:45.070 Anyway, the bottom line is polls are still going great for Harris. 01:17:45.330 --> 01:17:47.470 I will add everything I just said. 01:17:48.450 --> 01:17:52.410 I mentioned I took a two-hour nap right before recording the podcast. 01:17:52.710 --> 01:17:55.750 There are several new polls that came in during those two hours that I haven't 01:17:55.750 --> 01:18:00.230 entered yet, including one for Pennsylvania, which is still one of the tipping. 01:18:00.230 --> 01:18:02.310 The whole tie scenario is because 01:18:02.310 --> 01:18:05.590 the tipping point right now is actually not a single tipping point. 01:18:05.930 --> 01:18:08.690 It's between Pennsylvania and Arizona. 01:18:09.110 --> 01:18:15.370 Like for Harris to win, she has to win all the states up through Pennsylvania plus Arizona. 01:18:15.650 --> 01:18:21.330 For Trump to win, he has to win everything up through Arizona plus Pennsylvania. 01:18:21.590 --> 01:18:23.210 So the tipping point is actually in between. 01:18:23.570 --> 01:18:27.650 But I did take a quick look at those Pennsylvania polls. I think they make it 01:18:27.650 --> 01:18:29.110 even better for Harris again. 01:18:29.210 --> 01:18:31.850 I could have done the math wrong in my head, but I'll be entering those soon. 01:18:32.090 --> 01:18:34.870 And by the time you listen to this, there'll probably be even more polls. 01:18:34.950 --> 01:18:39.850 They're coming out all the time. So anyway, that's it for the polling update. 01:18:40.210 --> 01:18:43.350 You had started to mention, Yvonne, and we talked about it, 01:18:43.410 --> 01:18:46.630 or I talked about it a little bit last week, but I'd love to get 01:18:46.690 --> 01:18:52.030 your take on the Donald Trump flailing that we have seen the last couple weeks 01:18:52.030 --> 01:18:58.190 because I think it's just getting worse like he's not like he's not figuring 01:18:58.190 --> 01:19:02.370 out the right way to attack Harris and going after at least I don't I don't. 01:19:02.370 --> 01:19:07.090 Think I listen I don't I think it's it's it's a lot more basic. 01:19:07.090 --> 01:19:09.330 Okay this. 01:19:09.330 --> 01:19:10.730 Is more existential Sam. 01:19:10.730 --> 01:19:12.090 You think he's lost it. 01:19:12.790 --> 01:19:19.730 Well it lost it because look He knew his only ticket out of jail. 01:19:20.800 --> 01:19:22.680 Was to win this fucking election. Right. 01:19:22.980 --> 01:19:23.420 Okay. 01:19:23.480 --> 01:19:28.700 And he started getting comfortable that maybe he was going to win. Okay. 01:19:28.760 --> 01:19:31.640 He was sure he was going to win. When we had, he was. 01:19:31.660 --> 01:19:34.340 He, he, yeah, he wasn't just comfortable. 01:19:34.540 --> 01:19:37.660 It was like the thought of music wasn't in his mind anymore. 01:19:37.820 --> 01:19:46.720 Right. He, he, he hit the convention and he, you know, was deluding himself into this is done. 01:19:47.160 --> 01:19:47.600 Yeah. 01:19:47.740 --> 01:19:50.680 I won. I'm done. This is going to be easy. 01:19:50.800 --> 01:19:57.700 Street you know i'm taking this and all of a sudden he is angry. 01:19:57.700 --> 01:19:59.220 Yeah he. 01:19:59.220 --> 01:20:00.980 Is angry that joe biden. 01:20:00.980 --> 01:20:07.620 Actually dropped out dropped out that they're cheating him also people have 01:20:07.620 --> 01:20:13.660 pointed out like part of this is like the thought of somebody doing this is 01:20:13.660 --> 01:20:17.940 completely alien to donald trump He can't imagine how this could have happened. 01:20:17.980 --> 01:20:23.140 Now, you and I were still like, hey, Biden says he's in. He's staying in. 01:20:23.340 --> 01:20:28.080 But then, you know, Biden didn't. But Trump's view of it is like he can't imagine 01:20:28.080 --> 01:20:30.200 himself ever doing that. 01:20:30.340 --> 01:20:35.160 Dude, he actually went. One of the things that he posted on Truth Social was 01:20:35.160 --> 01:20:38.680 that Biden was going to show up at the convention. 01:20:38.940 --> 01:20:40.120 And try to take it back. 01:20:40.180 --> 01:20:41.640 And take it back. 01:20:41.900 --> 01:20:42.180 Yeah. 01:20:42.780 --> 01:20:47.100 Yeah. I mean, it's shit like this. It's unhinged. 01:20:47.440 --> 01:20:52.680 Crazy. Look, but but look, the whole thing is I win. 01:20:53.260 --> 01:20:56.780 I'm out of jail. All my problems are solved. 01:20:56.960 --> 01:20:57.560 Right. 01:20:57.940 --> 01:21:01.240 Right now, it's fuck. 01:21:01.740 --> 01:21:07.520 Not only am I falling behind, I'm going to fucking lose and I'm going to go to fucking jail. 01:21:08.700 --> 01:21:11.240 Because those are your scenarios if you're Trump. 01:21:11.500 --> 01:21:12.060 Right. 01:21:13.160 --> 01:21:21.320 I mean, the reality to him that he is fucked is making him completely unhinged. 01:21:21.320 --> 01:21:26.200 These guys are trying to, I thought the dumbest fucking thing I've ever seen 01:21:26.200 --> 01:21:30.880 is that they trotted him out for this press conference with these props. 01:21:31.180 --> 01:21:34.520 Like, it sounded like infrastructure week, but now we're going to talk about 01:21:34.520 --> 01:21:36.780 inflation. And I guess they bought some. 01:21:36.820 --> 01:21:39.360 Like boxes of cereal and stuff. yeah and. 01:21:39.360 --> 01:21:44.560 You know what he was on subject for like about a millisecond and then just started 01:21:44.560 --> 01:21:46.080 ranting and raving like well. 01:21:46.080 --> 01:21:50.860 And not only that he explicitly addressed it he was like they're telling me 01:21:50.860 --> 01:21:54.880 i need to stick to things like the economy and i should lay off on the personal 01:21:54.880 --> 01:21:58.980 attacks but fuck that i think i'm entitled to personal attacks and so i'm gonna 01:21:58.980 --> 01:22:02.000 you know because he literally. 01:22:02.000 --> 01:22:03.040 Said this and he. 01:22:03.040 --> 01:22:07.800 Literally said this and then went off about how Kamala Harris is stupid and 01:22:07.800 --> 01:22:13.200 blah, blah, blah, and he doesn't like her and whatever. 01:22:14.100 --> 01:22:23.040 And the theme of the last week or so has been other Republicans begging Donald 01:22:23.040 --> 01:22:29.620 Trump to please get on some sort of issue-oriented message and maybe attack 01:22:29.620 --> 01:22:33.940 Democrats in some of the areas where where they seem weak or maybe talk about issues. 01:22:34.200 --> 01:22:38.420 And, and Donald Trump is basically telling those people go screw them. Fuck you. 01:22:38.420 --> 01:22:46.860 No, here, here is the, here is the problem. Eight years ago when Donald won, yep. 01:22:47.140 --> 01:22:54.180 The way that he won was because basically he shut the fuck up for about 30 days. 01:22:55.360 --> 01:22:55.920 Yes. 01:22:56.100 --> 01:23:01.280 They took away his phones. They took away his shit and said, you shut the fuck up. 01:23:01.280 --> 01:23:08.840 You don't say another word and you know some events happened you had the comey 01:23:08.840 --> 01:23:15.000 letter you had all this shit happening and then that happened okay the last election okay, 01:23:16.870 --> 01:23:21.270 you know, he was close even with all the shit that happened. 01:23:21.650 --> 01:23:29.930 But the reality is that right now he is 100% surrounded himself with people 01:23:29.930 --> 01:23:33.730 that will just let him do whatever the fuck he wants. 01:23:34.990 --> 01:23:39.030 And if they can't and they won't, they're not going to shut up. 01:23:39.030 --> 01:23:44.910 He just brought Lewandowski back into the campaign, which one of the things 01:23:44.910 --> 01:23:49.810 people have talked about is this time around, he's had a more disciplined campaign. 01:23:49.910 --> 01:23:53.950 He's had a more professional campaigns, uh, staff around him, 01:23:54.010 --> 01:23:57.430 but the, the move, and I forget the name of the guy was something, 01:23:57.590 --> 01:24:00.710 something, whatever, but it's less Evita. 01:24:00.750 --> 01:24:01.070 Yeah. 01:24:01.170 --> 01:24:05.530 Less Evita. And basically less Evita is one of the folks telling him to try 01:24:05.530 --> 01:24:08.190 to be more disciplined, try to stay on message, blah, blah, blah. 01:24:08.490 --> 01:24:12.290 And now he brings in Lewandowski. Who's one One of the folks who was involved 01:24:12.290 --> 01:24:20.330 in 2016 that, and basically that people are reading this as they probably can't both be there. 01:24:20.730 --> 01:24:24.710 LaCivita may be on his way out. If not officially, then it's certainly in terms 01:24:24.710 --> 01:24:30.470 of influence because Trump is not liking the advice that's telling him to, 01:24:30.590 --> 01:24:33.270 oh, go, go talk about the economy. 01:24:33.370 --> 01:24:38.230 Go talk about taxes. Go, go talk about, you know, immigration, 01:24:38.510 --> 01:24:40.790 whatever. And he's like, fuck all that. 01:24:41.170 --> 01:24:43.270 I want to rant and rave. 01:24:43.870 --> 01:24:46.430 And yeah, so... 01:24:47.570 --> 01:24:58.250 I don't know. There are people surrounding Trump who know the formula to get him ahead again. 01:24:58.510 --> 01:25:02.350 And I'd mentioned one of my four models. 01:25:02.730 --> 01:25:06.730 I'd mentioned the straight trust the polls now has Harris ahead. 01:25:06.970 --> 01:25:11.690 One of my four models has Harris ahead. Just to be clear, Trump is still slightly 01:25:11.690 --> 01:25:14.830 ahead in the other three of my probabilistic models. 01:25:14.830 --> 01:25:22.710 But to get back on track, there are people around Trump who know how to do this. 01:25:23.330 --> 01:25:27.410 But it involves the kind of discipline. 01:25:27.890 --> 01:25:31.010 And like you said, last time they took away his phone. 01:25:31.330 --> 01:25:36.850 Basically, it's get him to seem normal for a little while. 01:25:37.050 --> 01:25:40.970 Get him to seem competent for a little while. 01:25:41.650 --> 01:25:47.510 That's the magic formula. If you do that, then you're competitive and you can 01:25:47.510 --> 01:25:48.750 potentially pull this out. 01:25:48.850 --> 01:25:54.070 If you continue to go crazy, then you're potentially losing people. 01:25:54.430 --> 01:25:58.790 Now, the other thing that is not on election graphs proper, but I've seen a 01:25:58.790 --> 01:26:02.490 bunch of analysis from people who've looked at the same polling before and after 01:26:02.490 --> 01:26:04.770 from the same group of pollsters and things like that. 01:26:05.630 --> 01:26:09.170 There are a couple of things we're seeing. One is that it's really, 01:26:09.270 --> 01:26:13.490 so far, Trump's numbers haven't actually changed very much. I look mostly at 01:26:13.490 --> 01:26:14.630 margins on election graphs. 01:26:14.770 --> 01:26:18.810 But if you look at Trump's numbers versus Harris's numbers, Trump's numbers 01:26:18.810 --> 01:26:20.750 haven't changed all that much. 01:26:20.990 --> 01:26:27.410 What's happened here is that people who are undecided in the Trump versus Biden 01:26:27.410 --> 01:26:30.950 race are breaking overwhelmingly to Harris. 01:26:31.410 --> 01:26:33.790 Well, this is the- And that's what's happening. 01:26:33.790 --> 01:26:37.210 Remember- And also I thought I saw one other number. 01:26:37.330 --> 01:26:39.730 I just want to say this. I saw one other number earlier today. 01:26:39.810 --> 01:26:43.610 I wish I'd like re retweeted it or whatever. 01:26:43.730 --> 01:26:49.170 Cause I didn't. And now I can't find it, but somebody also did a breakdown of men versus women. 01:26:50.300 --> 01:26:55.340 For men, the race is basically not changed for men. 01:26:55.740 --> 01:26:59.780 They are supporting Trump at the same level. They are supporting Harris at about 01:26:59.780 --> 01:27:01.500 the same level they supported Biden. 01:27:01.900 --> 01:27:08.980 But for women, there has been a huge move towards Harris, where women who were 01:27:08.980 --> 01:27:11.440 not on board with Biden are now on board with Harris. 01:27:11.800 --> 01:27:14.340 And so those are a couple of the big moves. 01:27:14.340 --> 01:27:19.080 Look, one of the things that I had been observing, like before we've gotten 01:27:19.080 --> 01:27:22.620 to this point now in middle of August, 01:27:22.860 --> 01:27:28.260 was when you added up the percentages of what they were voting towards, 01:27:28.460 --> 01:27:33.120 you know, Biden versus Trump, that in so many of the polls, like I'm going to 01:27:33.120 --> 01:27:35.560 talk more specifically about the national polls specifically, 01:27:35.820 --> 01:27:40.040 which, you know, which are, you know, they're leading indicators to a certain extent. 01:27:40.040 --> 01:27:42.560 They move faster because there are a lot more of them happening, 01:27:42.600 --> 01:27:44.120 you know, blah, blah, blah. 01:27:44.340 --> 01:27:49.080 And the one thing about those is that so many of them weren't even at when you 01:27:49.080 --> 01:27:53.440 combine it, the combined total of Trump and Biden combined. 01:27:53.740 --> 01:27:57.220 Yeah, exactly. There were like even at 90 percent in a lot of cases. 01:27:57.400 --> 01:28:02.700 They were like and I kept saying, listen, man, we're not getting to a fucking election. 01:28:02.960 --> 01:28:07.820 We're 10 percent of the fucking voters are going to wind up fucking voting independent. 01:28:07.900 --> 01:28:11.180 My fucking ass hasn't happened. 01:28:11.260 --> 01:28:14.580 No fucking way. one way or another this 01:28:14.580 --> 01:28:17.480 is going to coalesce in some other way or another the two things 01:28:17.480 --> 01:28:20.880 that have been happening but the effect that you've 01:28:20.880 --> 01:28:24.100 had right now is that the rapidly coalescing event 01:28:24.100 --> 01:28:30.340 was biden saying i'm out bring harris in and that decided that moved all those 01:28:30.340 --> 01:28:35.540 fucking people that were basically just oh okay fine i made the decision it's 01:28:35.540 --> 01:28:40.880 harris and it's been like it and And in mass. Absolutely. 01:28:40.940 --> 01:28:42.360 Now, I think... 01:28:43.210 --> 01:28:47.790 Honestly, a lot of those undecided people may have eventually come around to 01:28:47.790 --> 01:28:50.170 Joe when they finally were like, oh, fine. 01:28:50.490 --> 01:28:53.910 God damn it. It's my only choice. I'll go for Joe. 01:28:53.950 --> 01:28:54.290 Right. 01:28:54.290 --> 01:28:58.350 But it would have been a long, hard battle going over the course. 01:28:58.410 --> 01:28:59.450 It would have been a harder battle. 01:28:59.590 --> 01:29:04.110 And it would have been a slow process over the next few months where people 01:29:04.110 --> 01:29:09.350 slowly, like, finally admitted, oh, my God, this is what I have to do. 01:29:09.350 --> 01:29:13.830 But Harris jumping in made that happen in a matter of days. 01:29:14.670 --> 01:29:20.790 All of that motion happened within the first week to two weeks after she jumped in. 01:29:21.710 --> 01:29:28.590 Huge numbers of undecideds have stopped being undecided and are now Harris. 01:29:28.770 --> 01:29:32.450 They were holding back when it was Biden, but now they're like, okay, I'm in on Harris. 01:29:32.630 --> 01:29:37.030 And also, I'll put out there as well, this was always going to happen, 01:29:37.090 --> 01:29:41.350 but this has also accelerated over the last month, the complete collapse of Kennedy. 01:29:41.790 --> 01:29:45.370 His numbers are like a third of what they were a couple months ago. 01:29:45.650 --> 01:29:49.750 I mean- And then Kennedy was trying to get a cabinet job on the fucking Harris administration. 01:29:49.750 --> 01:29:52.390 Wait, he tried with Trump first. 01:29:52.950 --> 01:29:57.390 He tried with Trump first, and now he's calling Harris. Yeah, Trump said no. 01:29:57.630 --> 01:30:01.590 And apparently he tried to talk to Harris. He actually got a phone call with 01:30:01.590 --> 01:30:03.610 With Trump, Harris wouldn't even take his call. 01:30:03.870 --> 01:30:08.310 Yeah, fuck that guy. What the hell? I'm taking this stupid fucking call. 01:30:08.510 --> 01:30:09.470 You know, but yeah. 01:30:09.550 --> 01:30:16.290 But look, I'll give you, you know, look, how much the race has been shifting. 01:30:16.430 --> 01:30:22.430 And I'm going to focus on on the national polls just because they're they're further ahead. 01:30:22.530 --> 01:30:28.050 OK, I'm looking at I just pulled up the latest polls on. 01:30:29.060 --> 01:30:34.380 Five thirty eight national polls margin for Harris or Trump. 01:30:34.500 --> 01:30:35.520 OK, I'm looking at that. 01:30:35.540 --> 01:30:35.940 I'm going to go back. 01:30:35.940 --> 01:30:39.860 By the way, their polling average right now has Harris up by two point six. 01:30:40.160 --> 01:30:44.300 Like 24 hours ago, it had Harris up by three. So it's down a little bit from the max. But go ahead. 01:30:44.420 --> 01:30:50.480 But but but look at these. Look at these polling numbers like going back to like ten days. 01:30:51.020 --> 01:30:53.840 It's it was August six. It was plus one. 01:30:54.040 --> 01:30:56.980 Even Harris plus four. Harris plus one. 01:30:57.020 --> 01:31:02.000 Harris plus one. One Trump plus two Harris plus three Harris plus four Harris 01:31:02.000 --> 01:31:03.640 plus three Harris plus three. 01:31:03.740 --> 01:31:09.720 Even Trump, Trump plus one Harris plus two Harris plus five Harris plus five 01:31:09.720 --> 01:31:13.640 Trump plus two Harris plus six Harris plus six. 01:31:13.740 --> 01:31:20.160 I mean, this is this is this isn't slowing down in that direction. 01:31:20.240 --> 01:31:22.660 The numbers keep getting bigger. 01:31:22.800 --> 01:31:26.580 OK, toward Harris right now as we're heading towards the convention. 01:31:26.580 --> 01:31:30.220 Convention and so i mean this is i 01:31:30.220 --> 01:31:35.520 mean this is obviously the ideal scenario that you want like right now in terms 01:31:35.520 --> 01:31:41.120 of this if i'm a candidate i've got momentum in my direction and i'm gonna have 01:31:41.120 --> 01:31:45.800 a fucking convention that's gonna get everybody's attention fuck yeah that's 01:31:45.800 --> 01:31:47.920 what you want right now oh absolutely i. 01:31:47.920 --> 01:31:53.420 I think that we probably are going to get a bump out of the convention. 01:31:53.680 --> 01:31:58.000 Although like, you know, Harris's big bump was clearly when she got in, 01:31:58.100 --> 01:32:00.840 like, you're not going to have that kind of movement again. That was a massive. 01:32:00.840 --> 01:32:05.400 But I think you'll get another point. I think it's good for another couple of points. 01:32:05.680 --> 01:32:10.100 I think you're going to have more movement. And then going back to the Trump thing, um, 01:32:10.620 --> 01:32:11.400 We've got Trump. 01:32:11.500 --> 01:32:16.240 Listen, here's the thing. Trump, this the convention you want to talk about? 01:32:16.320 --> 01:32:21.180 He's already been melting down about how much attention he's not getting. Right. 01:32:21.260 --> 01:32:28.020 It's why he was on with fucking Elon on on X Twitter bullshit spaces. 01:32:28.020 --> 01:32:33.100 Faces, whatever, talking for a couple of hours, which apparently everybody that 01:32:33.100 --> 01:32:36.740 listened to it was like, what the fuck is this? Okay. 01:32:37.380 --> 01:32:40.100 But he's going to be even more unhinged with the convention. 01:32:40.880 --> 01:32:43.880 I mean, that's not going to improve his mood. 01:32:45.140 --> 01:32:49.520 Right. And I think like, well, and people are, one, you're talking about his mood. 01:32:49.760 --> 01:32:52.980 Two, people are, now that Biden is out of the race, 01:32:52.980 --> 01:32:55.880 people are pushing on you know what his 01:32:55.880 --> 01:32:58.700 mental capacity really is and right and 01:32:58.700 --> 01:33:02.160 we've talked about it wasn't that great to begin with like 01:33:02.160 --> 01:33:05.080 even eight years ago no no i 01:33:05.080 --> 01:33:07.860 mean we we had all the reports about from the from his 01:33:07.860 --> 01:33:12.680 administration of like hey he can't actually read a report so we have to like 01:33:12.680 --> 01:33:17.520 condense everything down into like basically slides with cartoons on them in 01:33:17.520 --> 01:33:22.740 order for him to understand you know so and that and that was eight years ago 01:33:22.740 --> 01:33:26.180 or seven years ago whatever oh and that that. 01:33:26.180 --> 01:33:31.900 That this week he decides to once again shit on the military. 01:33:33.180 --> 01:33:42.100 Yes well yes and i'm like what the fuck well the things that yeah because he 01:33:42.100 --> 01:33:47.980 can't help himself And this gets back to like how in control of himself is he? 01:33:48.060 --> 01:33:49.660 What's his mental capacity anyway? 01:33:50.040 --> 01:33:54.560 Is his mental – forget about like Alzheimer's or whatever. 01:33:55.000 --> 01:33:57.900 He's clearly a mentally ill man. Is it getting worse? 01:33:58.900 --> 01:34:07.360 You know? Yes. And I think the answer is yes because it's all being put under stress. 01:34:07.820 --> 01:34:12.660 And the stress will – forget about – I'm sure there are aging effects here. 01:34:12.780 --> 01:34:13.840 Too. There absolutely are. 01:34:14.000 --> 01:34:21.260 But you take pre-existing, the whole people, I know people are like, 01:34:21.280 --> 01:34:23.840 oh, you can't diagnose him without properly, blah, blah, blah, blah. 01:34:23.940 --> 01:34:28.040 There's so many mental health professionals at this point who've been like, 01:34:28.120 --> 01:34:33.700 look, no, I have not had him in my office, but there's so many hours of public 01:34:33.700 --> 01:34:36.280 behavior you can just observe. 01:34:36.780 --> 01:34:41.740 He's clearly, what do they call it, a malignant narcissist or whatever, 01:34:42.000 --> 01:34:46.460 and all of these other things associated with that. 01:34:47.570 --> 01:34:52.190 And you're putting all of that under pressure. You're putting things that pressure 01:34:52.190 --> 01:34:58.150 his ego, that relies on everybody loving him and looking up to him, 01:34:58.170 --> 01:34:59.530 and he's the best person ever. 01:34:59.590 --> 01:35:03.830 And every piece of evidence that you put in front of him that challenges that, 01:35:03.970 --> 01:35:10.790 whether it be him being behind in the polls or him getting convicted of something 01:35:10.790 --> 01:35:15.430 and having some sort of sentence happen, like challenges that kind of stuff 01:35:15.430 --> 01:35:18.770 and, and, you know, makes him act out more and more. 01:35:18.950 --> 01:35:23.350 And that's exactly what we're seeing so far. Now, can his staff at some point 01:35:23.350 --> 01:35:30.210 do a 2016 and take his damn phone away from him and, and lock him up and not 01:35:30.210 --> 01:35:31.690 going to happen this time. Lock him up. 01:35:32.370 --> 01:35:35.450 Well, that would, that would help everybody. 01:35:35.630 --> 01:35:40.170 Oh, I mean, if you, if you control his exposure to the public to be only. 01:35:40.290 --> 01:35:43.550 But, but listen, listen he he has changed listen 01:35:43.550 --> 01:35:46.950 he was i think up 01:35:46.950 --> 01:35:49.810 until 2020 somebody that to a 01:35:49.810 --> 01:35:53.250 certain point was allowing himself to be managed okay 01:35:53.250 --> 01:35:57.270 right up to a point right now that 01:35:57.270 --> 01:36:00.510 he has basically removed every fucking 01:36:00.510 --> 01:36:03.890 safeguard of anybody that has any fucking 01:36:03.890 --> 01:36:06.790 you know common sense to really 01:36:06.790 --> 01:36:10.090 stop him or if there are around 01:36:10.090 --> 01:36:13.170 them none of them will none of them will will even 01:36:13.170 --> 01:36:17.510 like attempt to stop okay so i 01:36:17.510 --> 01:36:20.230 right now they are basically i mean 01:36:20.230 --> 01:36:23.330 sam held one rally this week where 01:36:23.330 --> 01:36:27.570 the fuck did he go for a rally uh montana oh 01:36:27.570 --> 01:36:30.950 yeah the great state of montana right i'm 01:36:30.950 --> 01:36:34.030 sure that that was definitely you know 01:36:34.030 --> 01:36:41.550 helping him move the needle in his direction okay what the fuck who the hell 01:36:41.550 --> 01:36:48.490 in a campaign that at like his that is flailing decides to hold a fucking rally 01:36:48.490 --> 01:36:51.050 and fuck it so montana i'll. 01:36:51.050 --> 01:36:54.030 Tell you the theory behind that rally like. 01:36:54.030 --> 01:36:55.090 Okay you can do. 01:36:55.090 --> 01:36:55.990 This logic or not. 01:36:55.990 --> 01:36:57.430 This is. 01:36:57.430 --> 01:37:02.370 One of the states that the republicans are trying to pick up in the senate So 01:37:02.370 --> 01:37:07.450 nominally, he was there to support the Republican candidate going against Senator Tester. 01:37:07.570 --> 01:37:13.110 Which is a point of parliamentary procedure. Yes. 01:37:14.190 --> 01:37:19.770 You remember what happened in Georgia in 2020? Yes. There were two Senate seats on the line. Yes. 01:37:20.670 --> 01:37:22.350 Did Trump give a fuck about the Senate? 01:37:23.170 --> 01:37:26.590 I'm just telling you that's nominally why he was there. 01:37:26.730 --> 01:37:29.010 No, no, no. Did Trump give a fuck about the Senate? 01:37:30.130 --> 01:37:37.950 No. No. And in fact, he did things that, like, I think— Actively undermined them. 01:37:37.970 --> 01:37:43.070 I think, like, when Trump was doing the whole stop the steal, 01:37:43.270 --> 01:37:47.090 call the Secretary of Defense, try to get them to, like, whatever, 01:37:47.090 --> 01:37:52.850 And the statements he was making there against some of the local people, 01:37:53.270 --> 01:38:00.350 like if he'd shut the hell up, the Democrats might not have won those two Senate seats. 01:38:00.590 --> 01:38:01.370 That's right. 01:38:01.550 --> 01:38:08.950 Like I think Trump actually actively participated in the Democrats winning the 01:38:08.950 --> 01:38:10.510 Senate that year. Right. 01:38:10.570 --> 01:38:15.310 And so that's why I call bullshit on him going up there for that. 01:38:15.310 --> 01:38:21.710 I think that he wanted to go to some fucking place that filled two things. 01:38:22.010 --> 01:38:27.230 By the way, I do think that after he got shot. Yes. 01:38:27.510 --> 01:38:30.170 I think he's a little bit afraid for his safety. 01:38:30.270 --> 01:38:30.890 I think that's true. 01:38:30.890 --> 01:38:37.310 And I do think that that is, I think that that is also impeding his ability to go out and do a round. 01:38:37.310 --> 01:38:41.990 And he basically said, and I mentioned this last week, but he said like he wasn't 01:38:41.990 --> 01:38:48.130 planning on really hitting the campaign trail again until after the Democrats convention was over, 01:38:48.250 --> 01:38:53.470 which basically took him out of commission for a month other than a handful of small events. 01:38:53.830 --> 01:38:58.710 And I think you're probably right. Part of it is probably him being spooked 01:38:58.710 --> 01:38:59.890 by the assassination attempt. 01:39:00.030 --> 01:39:02.470 And my God, I mean, I would be too. Let's be honest. 01:39:02.490 --> 01:39:08.270 I mean, fuck. Listen, like I said, listen, it is about the only one of the few 01:39:08.270 --> 01:39:12.810 fucking human reactions this bastard apparently has. 01:39:13.250 --> 01:39:18.450 Because, look, the first thing I said about when he got what when they tried 01:39:18.450 --> 01:39:23.730 to kill him, what I remarked was how fucked up his reaction was. Right. 01:39:24.540 --> 01:39:28.120 Because it was just nuts, okay, how he reacted. 01:39:28.680 --> 01:39:33.380 And now it's like almost post-traumatic where it's actually, 01:39:33.520 --> 01:39:37.080 oh, fuck, they did almost kill me. 01:39:37.360 --> 01:39:42.380 Right. And, you know, now the Secret Service is like, okay, we're going to have 01:39:42.380 --> 01:39:46.400 bulletproof glass in front of him or bullet-resistant glass in front of him 01:39:46.400 --> 01:39:50.600 so he can do public events again. Again, like the few, the Montana event and 01:39:50.600 --> 01:39:52.000 a couple others were, were smaller. 01:39:52.260 --> 01:39:54.560 They were indoors, I believe. 01:39:54.720 --> 01:39:58.740 They were smaller and it was, I mean, it's fucking Montana. I mean, no way. 01:39:58.800 --> 01:40:02.660 And then, and then his press conferences, he's done at Mar-a-Lago and Belminster. 01:40:03.420 --> 01:40:04.540 Belminster? Bedminster. 01:40:05.040 --> 01:40:09.340 Bedminster. Not Belminster. Jesus Christ, we're butchering every fucking name today. We need to talk. 01:40:09.600 --> 01:40:17.200 Go to the police. Oh, but for the record, my election graphs average for Harris 01:40:17.200 --> 01:40:22.260 versus Trump in Montana right now has Trump ahead by 16.7%. 01:40:22.920 --> 01:40:23.560 Yeah. 01:40:23.840 --> 01:40:28.700 Now, that includes the- Very important. That includes the 2016 and 2020 elections 01:40:28.700 --> 01:40:32.120 because there have only been three polls in Montana since Biden dropped. 01:40:32.160 --> 01:40:39.000 Listen, there is no fucking way that this guy went over there to support a fucking senator. 01:40:39.000 --> 01:40:48.900 I, I, I have no, this guy has not cared about anybody else in any race other than himself. 01:40:49.320 --> 01:40:57.380 And so I'm not sure what, I think that what in his mind going to Montana was 01:40:57.380 --> 01:41:05.260 like a safe place that he could go and do an event where he would get a crowd 01:41:05.260 --> 01:41:06.900 that he was comfortable with. 01:41:07.830 --> 01:41:15.070 So, by the way, the Republican going up against Jon Taster is Tim Sheehy. 01:41:15.670 --> 01:41:16.150 Huh? 01:41:16.330 --> 01:41:17.270 Tim Sheehy. 01:41:17.350 --> 01:41:18.310 And how's he doing? 01:41:18.730 --> 01:41:23.550 Well, let's put it this way. He doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. 01:41:25.370 --> 01:41:26.330 That's interesting. 01:41:26.670 --> 01:41:31.510 I'm like, what the fuck? Why isn't there? How can this even be true? 01:41:31.510 --> 01:41:37.870 Like I'm looking at the Wikipedia page for the 2024 United States Senate election in Montana. 01:41:38.070 --> 01:41:40.430 It shows Jon Tester versus Tim Sheeney. 01:41:40.450 --> 01:41:47.270 By the way, I just saw, I pulled up something for 14 hours ago. 01:41:47.730 --> 01:41:54.350 Montana Senate new poll has Tester beating Sheehy 49-44. four. Yeah. 01:41:54.610 --> 01:41:58.510 Which by the way, like we had talked about, like when we, when we did predictions 01:41:58.510 --> 01:42:02.990 for this year, like in order for the Democrats to keep the Senate, 01:42:03.050 --> 01:42:05.050 they have to do a clean sweep. 01:42:05.230 --> 01:42:09.610 They basically have to wait every state and right now it's looking like they might. 01:42:10.090 --> 01:42:17.350 Sam, this was a Rasmussen poll and it has tester up by five. 01:42:17.850 --> 01:42:20.550 Holy shit. They might keep tester. 01:42:20.550 --> 01:42:24.770 Yeah i mean this is one of the ones that democrats thought they would probably 01:42:24.770 --> 01:42:30.210 lose so not looking like it the the ohio race was also one that they thought 01:42:30.210 --> 01:42:35.470 and the democrats i believe still up narrowly in the polls in ohio as well you 01:42:35.470 --> 01:42:36.730 can check if you want avon, 01:42:37.470 --> 01:42:42.670 you know there are a few of those like now i i'm not yet saying that it looks 01:42:42.670 --> 01:42:49.130 like we're it's it's It's going to happen, but the chances are a lot better than it looks. 01:42:49.130 --> 01:42:51.810 I just looked at, listen, listen. I mean, listen, I'm sorry, 01:42:51.890 --> 01:42:54.050 but Rasmussen polls have their thumb on the skin. 01:42:54.330 --> 01:42:55.950 That's just a reality. Yeah, yeah. Okay? 01:42:56.230 --> 01:42:59.790 And if Rasmussen is posting a fucking poll that they just posted right now and 01:42:59.790 --> 01:43:03.130 has Tester up by five, that means Tester may be up by eight or ten. 01:43:03.330 --> 01:43:06.670 Right. Yeah. Yeah, and there are a number of other states, too, 01:43:06.790 --> 01:43:12.250 and people are talking about, you know, again, Democrats pretty much have to 01:43:12.250 --> 01:43:17.470 do a clean sweep of all of the states they are defending in the Senate in order to do it. 01:43:17.510 --> 01:43:20.130 And like a few months ago, people were thinking, yeah. 01:43:20.210 --> 01:43:25.590 That's not going to happen. Every single poll that I've pulled up, 01:43:25.630 --> 01:43:28.410 the last has browned up by four points. 01:43:28.410 --> 01:43:35.630 And so now it looks like the Democrats might get that clean sweep that they need to keep the Senate. 01:43:35.890 --> 01:43:40.470 And I've even heard people speculating about, is Ted Cruz in trouble in Texas? 01:43:41.330 --> 01:43:48.010 I mean, look, Republicans hate Ted Cruz. The problem that Ted Cruz has is that 01:43:48.010 --> 01:43:50.090 even their fucking Republicans cannot stand. 01:43:50.390 --> 01:43:50.810 Yes. 01:43:50.810 --> 01:44:01.730 And so that is the only reason why Ted may be vulnerable is because it's just the guy is just. 01:44:03.230 --> 01:44:06.390 One of the most unlikable pieces of shit out there. 01:44:06.790 --> 01:44:13.010 And so there, the one thing that you could have, how could Ted Cruz lose is 01:44:13.010 --> 01:44:16.870 a lot of Republicans go to the polls and they're just like, fuck this. 01:44:16.990 --> 01:44:20.710 I'm not, I'm, I'm not even marking them off. Fuck this. I can't do it. 01:44:20.810 --> 01:44:24.110 Well, this is the thing too. Like people are talking about, like one of the 01:44:24.110 --> 01:44:29.630 reasons the Democrats actively pushed Biden out is they were worried about negative 01:44:29.630 --> 01:44:31.750 coattails where, you know, the, 01:44:31.890 --> 01:44:35.570 the, The Democratic Senate candidates were doing better than Biden, 01:44:35.690 --> 01:44:38.610 and they were worried that Biden would drag them down. 01:44:38.810 --> 01:44:43.690 Now we're talking about traditional coattails instead. How is Harris going to help the Democrats? 01:44:43.850 --> 01:44:49.970 Is the enthusiasm about Harris going to, I'm going to use the word twice in 01:44:49.970 --> 01:44:54.710 one show, like give tailwinds to all these Senate candidates and help push the 01:44:54.710 --> 01:44:58.490 Democrats over the edge in the Senate, obviously the House as well? 01:44:59.050 --> 01:45:06.450 You know so right now like all trends are blue like and to be clear the overall, 01:45:07.490 --> 01:45:12.570 we're still in toss-up territory everywhere toss-up for the presidency toss-up 01:45:12.570 --> 01:45:18.370 for the house toss-up for the senate but right now all the trends are moving 01:45:18.370 --> 01:45:23.290 towards blue now will that last all the way from now till november i don't know 01:45:23.290 --> 01:45:25.330 i'm gonna tell you another guy who is. 01:45:25.330 --> 01:45:29.430 Not but who is deeply hated by a lot of people. It's Rick Scott. 01:45:29.610 --> 01:45:34.550 Okay. In Florida, Florida Atlantic, which is a university near me. 01:45:34.630 --> 01:45:38.670 They've actually the, the I've seen that they're polling over the last few election 01:45:38.670 --> 01:45:42.590 cycles has been pretty spot on what the fuck is going on. Okay. 01:45:43.170 --> 01:45:47.690 They've got that race right now. The last few polls at recently where they've 01:45:47.690 --> 01:45:53.090 got Scott up by four, but it's a 4743 split, which means that there's a lot 01:45:53.090 --> 01:45:56.950 of people out there that are like undecided like right now on that. 01:45:59.190 --> 01:46:04.390 Listen scott when he won six years ago i think won by less than 10 000 votes 01:46:04.390 --> 01:46:13.470 right okay it was paper thin it was it was just stupidly thin and people don't 01:46:13.470 --> 01:46:17.490 like rick scott i mean the guy I just, he's a douchebag. 01:46:17.590 --> 01:46:28.270 Just, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, maybe he's just, he's a little less disliked 01:46:28.270 --> 01:46:30.270 than Ted Cruz, but not by a lot. 01:46:30.570 --> 01:46:32.870 And so that's another one where, 01:46:34.840 --> 01:46:38.620 the the only reason i bring it up is because you 01:46:38.620 --> 01:46:41.600 know what the last time it was paper 01:46:41.600 --> 01:46:44.440 thin it was i mean it was 01:46:44.440 --> 01:46:50.720 just so close so you know and by the way it wasn't expected to be that close 01:46:50.720 --> 01:46:59.540 right um so let me let me pull up the the final tally of that election but yeah 01:46:59.540 --> 01:47:02.680 it was yeah Yeah. 10,000 votes. 01:47:03.160 --> 01:47:05.660 Rick Scott had 4,000,099. 01:47:06.220 --> 01:47:09.240 Bill Nelson came up with 4,089. 01:47:10.120 --> 01:47:14.860 I mean, it doesn't get a lot closer than that. Yeah. 01:47:15.060 --> 01:47:20.280 And since we're talking Florida, let me just talk Florida for the presidency as well. 01:47:21.480 --> 01:47:27.860 First of all, where the polling ended for Biden when people stopped polling 01:47:27.860 --> 01:47:39.180 him had Trump ahead by 5.7% in Florida and with 13.9% in the category that said neither. 01:47:39.340 --> 01:47:40.220 Undecided. Yeah. 01:47:40.300 --> 01:47:42.980 Undecided or third party. um yeah 01:47:42.980 --> 01:47:47.500 that's my election graphs average of course for harris 01:47:47.500 --> 01:47:53.860 right now that's actually about the same it has like trump ahead by six okay 01:47:53.860 --> 01:48:00.200 but i will point out trends like just looking at oh i have to say has trump 01:48:00.200 --> 01:48:06.400 had by six but that that neither group is down to 6.7 okay but. 01:48:07.810 --> 01:48:11.630 Aside from the average itself, I want to point out the trends on that. 01:48:12.790 --> 01:48:19.970 There was a poll of Harris versus Trump right before Biden dropped out, 01:48:20.070 --> 01:48:24.950 where Trump was ahead by over 10% in Florida. 01:48:25.370 --> 01:48:30.410 And then if you look at the polls since then, there's a couple of outliers from 01:48:30.410 --> 01:48:35.310 this trend, but we had an insider advantage poll, Trump by 10. 01:48:35.310 --> 01:48:38.510 Then we had a redfield and wilton trump 01:48:38.510 --> 01:48:41.810 by eight then you university 01:48:41.810 --> 01:48:45.350 of north florida trump by seven then uh 01:48:45.350 --> 01:48:51.190 redfield and wilton trump by six then suffolk trump by five then we just had 01:48:51.190 --> 01:48:57.290 a poll come out this week for mainstream uh for main street and if you average 01:48:57.290 --> 01:49:02.270 the with and without kennedy trump only two and a half two and a half uh now 01:49:02.270 --> 01:49:03.890 there were a couple outliers there was an 01:49:03.930 --> 01:49:10.590 additional Trump by 8.2 from ActiveVote and McLaughlin by 8 that were not on 01:49:10.590 --> 01:49:12.650 that trend line I showed. They were a little higher. 01:49:12.910 --> 01:49:21.410 But the trend is almost every poll that has come out has showed Florida closer than the poll before. 01:49:21.690 --> 01:49:25.210 Like I said, in the end, the average right now is still Trump up by six. 01:49:25.630 --> 01:49:31.150 And that's over the last two weeks. So that's a fairly recent polling. 01:49:31.930 --> 01:49:37.290 So i'm not ready to say florida's in play yet but the trend in florida just 01:49:37.290 --> 01:49:41.970 like everywhere else has been moving rapidly towards harris if it moves a few 01:49:41.970 --> 01:49:45.590 more percent then yeah florida's in play too you know i. 01:49:45.590 --> 01:49:51.090 Think the one thing the one other state that you know like georgia i mean biden 01:49:51.090 --> 01:49:55.510 won georgia okay you know that that's that that that what that that was one 01:49:55.510 --> 01:49:57.950 and look like right Right now, 01:49:58.070 --> 01:50:02.130 it's at the same margins or like Biden won the last time. 01:50:02.330 --> 01:50:07.050 Listen, this is a state that is winnable. 01:50:07.190 --> 01:50:11.570 Oh, yeah. My poll average in Georgia right now has Trump up by 0.8%. 01:50:12.770 --> 01:50:13.030 Right. 01:50:13.310 --> 01:50:20.430 This is another one where, you know, let me let me check the Biden number real quick. 01:50:20.590 --> 01:50:23.610 Biden's final number was trumped up by four and a half in Georgia. 01:50:23.950 --> 01:50:31.170 Harris has it at point eight. And again, with a rapid trend towards her over the last few weeks. 01:50:31.270 --> 01:50:35.610 Now, again, at some point, the move towards Harris has to stop. 01:50:35.790 --> 01:50:40.890 You know, we're not going to have, you know, Harris winning 48 states in D.C., you know, but. 01:50:40.890 --> 01:50:43.730 But well, I mean, I don't know. But I mean, for all we know, 01:50:43.790 --> 01:50:48.050 Trump could come out and like, I don't know, maybe shoot Melania or something for all we fucking know. 01:50:48.910 --> 01:50:53.970 Yes. Well, I heard people spinning scenarios at this point of like, 01:50:54.090 --> 01:50:57.570 OK, well, Trump clearly at this point thinks Vance was a mistake. 01:50:57.730 --> 01:51:03.690 Maybe he dumps vast Vance. And then the only possible rational replacement would be Haley. 01:51:03.730 --> 01:51:04.850 Ivanka Haley. 01:51:05.530 --> 01:51:09.310 Although Trump hates Haley. But they're like, well, but the party would force 01:51:09.310 --> 01:51:10.790 him to pick Haley. Yeah, right. right, whatever. 01:51:11.090 --> 01:51:14.850 Pick Haley. And then Trump trumps out. And then we have Harris versus Haley. 01:51:15.720 --> 01:51:16.800 And then that changes everything. 01:51:17.640 --> 01:51:28.300 That wouldn't happen in one billion years. Well, I mean, the part where Trump dumps vans, 01:51:28.500 --> 01:51:33.400 I see that, or tries to dump them. Can he dump them? 01:51:33.500 --> 01:51:36.900 Can he just say, fuck you? How does that work? 01:51:37.100 --> 01:51:40.000 Well, I mean, remember there was that, who was it? Eagleton, 01:51:40.180 --> 01:51:45.400 who got pushed out by the Democrats in, I forget, 68, 72. 01:51:45.400 --> 01:51:48.320 Many i forget when that was um okay but basically 01:51:48.320 --> 01:51:51.300 that can happen basically and to show how times 01:51:51.300 --> 01:51:57.120 have changed the reason i mean it came out that he had seen a psychiatrist and 01:51:57.120 --> 01:52:02.320 oh fuck and then he and so he had to drop out good hell and i think he cried 01:52:02.320 --> 01:52:10.180 or something like when he was asked about it um oh for fucking christ's sakes what the fuck what. 01:52:10.180 --> 01:52:13.060 The oh okay well all right. 01:52:13.060 --> 01:52:18.180 Anyway anyway like So it has happened where the vice president has been pushed 01:52:18.180 --> 01:52:19.240 out after the convention. 01:52:19.740 --> 01:52:22.420 Basically, the RNC would have to meet and pick a new one. 01:52:22.860 --> 01:52:24.940 Okay, so they could do that. 01:52:25.080 --> 01:52:30.140 But look, he's not listening here. How is he going to pick? We got ballot deadlines too, though. 01:52:30.580 --> 01:52:35.580 At this point, we are now several weeks past where we were talking about it 01:52:35.580 --> 01:52:39.060 is now getting difficult to change ballots. 01:52:39.320 --> 01:52:43.660 So some states you can change it. Some states you can't. At some states, 01:52:43.720 --> 01:52:45.540 you can change it only under certain circumstances. 01:52:45.780 --> 01:52:50.000 But the bottom line, protection against all of this stuff is in the end. 01:52:50.040 --> 01:52:51.280 It's the electors voting. 01:52:51.760 --> 01:52:57.880 And so almost up to the very last minute, the RNC could tell electors do something else. 01:52:57.920 --> 01:53:00.840 Now, there are a few states that bind them, so that induces complications. 01:53:01.140 --> 01:53:05.060 He might just shoot Vance. 01:53:05.600 --> 01:53:09.460 Yeah, actually, because it's easier to replace somebody on the ballot if they're 01:53:09.460 --> 01:53:13.540 dead. If someone is dead, it's easier to replace them on the ballot than if they're not. 01:53:13.540 --> 01:53:14.120 That's why I'm saying. 01:53:15.080 --> 01:53:15.440 Yeah. 01:53:15.460 --> 01:53:17.300 Well, I think here's one thing, though. 01:53:18.370 --> 01:53:25.370 Look, he's not going to put Haley. I mean, have you seen all the backlash that 01:53:25.370 --> 01:53:29.590 J.D. Vance's wife has gotten because she's of Indian heritage? 01:53:30.590 --> 01:53:31.310 Yes. Yes. 01:53:31.510 --> 01:53:37.790 I mean, so what? You think this is going to appease the racists that put Haley on? 01:53:38.510 --> 01:53:42.750 Although in that interview that came out where Vance apparently agreed with 01:53:42.750 --> 01:53:47.070 the notion that the only purpose of postmenopausal women is to be grandmothers 01:53:47.070 --> 01:53:47.990 to their grandchildren. children. 01:53:48.910 --> 01:53:55.050 That same interview that he also sort of not, now to be clear on all of this, 01:53:55.110 --> 01:53:56.630 Vance did not say this himself. 01:53:56.770 --> 01:54:02.190 The interviewer said it and Vance sort of made affirming, uh-huh, uh-huh, yeah, noises. 01:54:02.790 --> 01:54:07.570 And Vance is now saying he didn't really agree with him. He was not along to 01:54:07.570 --> 01:54:09.630 the thing he said before that and didn't realize. 01:54:09.830 --> 01:54:17.190 But also he said, the interviewer said, and Vance seem to agree that apparently 01:54:17.190 --> 01:54:22.450 one of the big advantages of marrying into an Indian family was that the grandparents 01:54:22.450 --> 01:54:24.770 were even more dedicated to this kind of stuff. 01:54:24.890 --> 01:54:30.030 Because they like, apparently his mother-in-law had a fairly high powered job 01:54:30.030 --> 01:54:36.490 and quit the job and moved in with them to help with care of the baby after 01:54:36.490 --> 01:54:39.810 they started having kids and lived with them for like a year. 01:54:39.990 --> 01:54:43.350 And like in the interviewer, it's like, well, that's one of the advantages of 01:54:43.350 --> 01:54:46.070 marrying into an Indian family. They're like that, you know? 01:54:47.470 --> 01:54:49.610 Okay, so, all right. 01:54:49.670 --> 01:54:51.810 So, yes, the racism. 01:54:53.030 --> 01:54:57.750 Yes, how does this address the racists? Were you putting in Haley? 01:54:58.030 --> 01:55:01.250 Wait, we got the misogynists and the racists. 01:55:01.730 --> 01:55:11.810 So you got, you know, it's a, you know, I don't see how, I mean, it would be Haley. 01:55:12.510 --> 01:55:15.010 Is going to be somebody it's got to be some other. 01:55:15.010 --> 01:55:19.250 You know i honestly i think at this point at this point he's sticking with vance 01:55:19.250 --> 01:55:22.330 i think the maximum danger point for vance has passed, 01:55:23.470 --> 01:55:26.210 and i think unless more comes out they're sticking 01:55:26.210 --> 01:55:30.530 with vance like because because at this point there's a cost to it i still don't 01:55:30.530 --> 01:55:33.450 i still don't although we thought that with biden we thought there'd be a cost 01:55:33.450 --> 01:55:39.130 to a switch and there wasn't so maybe maybe trump could dump somebody dump vance 01:55:39.130 --> 01:55:44.230 and pick somebody that miraculously will completely undo all of the poll changes in the last one. 01:55:44.250 --> 01:55:49.230 I know. I got the answer. I got the perfect answer. She's available. Palin. 01:55:52.230 --> 01:55:55.270 I thought that's the solution i thought you were gonna say fiorina. 01:55:56.030 --> 01:55:59.970 Oh well that's you know yeah that's another no no no. 01:55:59.970 --> 01:56:03.650 Palin man okay i. 01:56:03.650 --> 01:56:05.310 Mean why not recycle palin. 01:56:05.310 --> 01:56:12.270 Yeah i could see that like but yeah the at this point like to really i mean 01:56:12.270 --> 01:56:18.290 to really shake this up and reverse the trends that we've been seeing over the last month I think, 01:56:18.330 --> 01:56:23.430 you know, we've talked about like, can Trump discipline himself and have come to the conclusion? 01:56:23.610 --> 01:56:28.030 No, that that would be one way to stabilize this is if Trump actually acted 01:56:28.030 --> 01:56:29.570 normal from now until the election. 01:56:30.170 --> 01:56:32.970 The other would be that you do have a trump 01:56:32.970 --> 01:56:35.830 replacement on the republican side and we don't end up with the 01:56:35.830 --> 01:56:38.510 trump part of the biden versus trump either and then 01:56:38.510 --> 01:56:42.990 depending on who the rnc put in completely different race but like you know 01:56:42.990 --> 01:56:48.910 unlike biden there is no freaking way trump would do that himself so i think 01:56:48.910 --> 01:56:55.510 that would only happen you know if trump was if trump actually died or was physically 01:56:55.510 --> 01:56:57.630 incapacitated in such a way that he couldn't. 01:56:57.730 --> 01:57:03.650 This Republican Party is so beholden to Trump. Never have. 01:57:04.330 --> 01:57:10.190 I don't. They are, they, it's like a suicide pact at this point. 01:57:10.430 --> 01:57:11.330 Yeah, it is. 01:57:12.680 --> 01:57:16.520 And and look they'll you know what was 01:57:16.520 --> 01:57:19.840 it um oh i'm blanking south carolina 01:57:19.840 --> 01:57:23.140 senator guy what's his name i just blanked graham yeah 01:57:23.140 --> 01:57:26.420 lindsey graham lindsey graham went back in 2015 01:57:26.420 --> 01:57:29.500 early 2016 when he 01:57:29.500 --> 01:57:33.460 was running against trump said explicitly if 01:57:33.460 --> 01:57:36.680 if we pick trump it will destroy the republican 01:57:36.680 --> 01:57:39.760 party now he ended up winning 01:57:39.760 --> 01:57:42.560 but i think his prediction of it 01:57:42.560 --> 01:57:45.760 destroying the republican party is still playing out 01:57:45.760 --> 01:57:48.940 i mean frankly even if trump wins this time 01:57:48.940 --> 01:57:53.060 around like the what survives 01:57:53.060 --> 01:58:00.160 of the republican party going forward after trump whenever trump is gone is 01:58:00.160 --> 01:58:06.300 gonna be nothing is nothing nothing like all of the principles that the republican 01:58:06.300 --> 01:58:10.380 party traditionally held are gone no but like no. 01:58:10.380 --> 01:58:12.660 But but even beyond that sam. 01:58:12.660 --> 01:58:17.540 The organization the machinery that's all raising out yes it. 01:58:17.540 --> 01:58:20.900 He has completely decimated that. 01:58:20.900 --> 01:58:22.320 All of it yes all. 01:58:22.320 --> 01:58:29.540 Of it all of it the local organizing, the field offices, everything. 01:58:29.900 --> 01:58:32.980 He has completely, completely decimated that. 01:58:33.400 --> 01:58:36.940 Look what's been happening, all these parties in different states where you've 01:58:36.940 --> 01:58:40.620 had these crisis, where they've had no money, where they're fighting amongst 01:58:40.620 --> 01:58:42.540 each other. They can't decide anything. 01:58:42.860 --> 01:58:46.820 They can't do anything. This has been an ongoing saga that you've seen. 01:58:47.000 --> 01:58:52.840 And listen, if Trump, like right now, loses again. 01:58:53.840 --> 01:58:57.560 They are in exactly that scenario. 01:58:57.980 --> 01:59:02.680 They've got nothing left. And the problem that they've got is that, 01:59:02.740 --> 01:59:10.120 my thought is, even if he loses, if he's not dead, he's going to try to run again. 01:59:10.340 --> 01:59:10.980 Mm-hmm. 01:59:12.030 --> 01:59:14.090 That that's what i totally believe. 01:59:14.090 --> 01:59:16.910 I could see that you're not he's i could see him announcing 01:59:16.910 --> 01:59:19.950 his candidacy the day after well after 01:59:19.950 --> 01:59:22.950 he loses well he's never he's never going to admit he loses either 01:59:22.950 --> 01:59:25.710 he's going to contest it again just like he did last time and 01:59:25.710 --> 01:59:28.730 pretend it's a steal and blah blah blah go through 01:59:28.730 --> 01:59:31.630 all the courts try to get another riot try to get 01:59:31.630 --> 01:59:34.810 the house to do something you blah blah it probably won't 01:59:34.810 --> 01:59:37.490 succeed but he's going to try all of that stuff again end 01:59:37.490 --> 01:59:40.630 so he'll never admit he loses and then 01:59:40.630 --> 01:59:45.790 but then i can see him immediately thereafter being like well you know 2028 01:59:45.790 --> 01:59:53.630 2028 is coming up you know now just just like we he is deteriorating with age 01:59:53.630 --> 01:59:58.530 though like i can't imagine adding another four years to this donald trump yes listen. 01:59:58.530 --> 02:00:01.830 I i i understand how bad it would be but i'm telling you that. 02:00:01.830 --> 02:00:04.510 He's trying oh yeah yeah Yeah, I don't disagree. 02:00:06.170 --> 02:00:10.250 So, Jesus Christ, can't get this son of a bitch. It's like a fucking cockroach. 02:00:12.730 --> 02:00:16.330 Never been able to get rid of this bastard. God, son of a bitch. 02:00:16.850 --> 02:00:22.770 Well, yeah. You keep predicting every year he's going to have a heart attack. Hasn't happened yet. 02:00:23.730 --> 02:00:27.970 Except there was that one mysterious visit to the hospital that we never found out what happened. 02:00:28.570 --> 02:00:29.110 That's right. 02:00:29.190 --> 02:00:30.030 Well, shit. 02:00:30.190 --> 02:00:33.190 Well, Sam, I mean, Jesus Christ, and talk about my death prediction. 02:00:33.190 --> 02:00:34.950 And I'm sorry, but a bullet came within what? 02:00:35.070 --> 02:00:38.850 How many inches of fucking doing it? Like what? Maybe one inch? 02:00:38.930 --> 02:00:40.070 Yeah, something like that. Two inches? Boom. 02:00:40.450 --> 02:00:40.890 Yep. 02:00:41.490 --> 02:00:46.150 So. Okay, did we miss anything, Yvonne? Or can we wrap this sucker up? 02:00:46.630 --> 02:00:48.050 No, you can wrap this sucker up. 02:00:48.330 --> 02:00:53.150 Okay. Thanks, everybody, for listening to yet another Curmudgeon's Corner. 02:00:53.250 --> 02:00:57.470 As Yvonne and I ramble on about this and that and that and this. 02:00:58.310 --> 02:01:03.350 Go to curmudgeons-corner.com. You can find all the ways to contact us. 02:01:03.410 --> 02:01:06.750 You can find an archive of our shows, including transcripts recently. 02:01:07.090 --> 02:01:08.410 Well, recently it's been. 02:01:09.300 --> 02:01:13.560 Three quarters of a year now. I don't know. It's been a while since I added transcripts. 02:01:14.320 --> 02:01:18.300 You can find all that stuff. I have not yet added a link to the YouTube. 02:01:18.360 --> 02:01:20.640 If you want to go to the YouTube, I'll do it eventually. 02:01:20.840 --> 02:01:26.140 But you know, now I have the I'm sick excuse, you know, so, but it's youtube.com 02:01:26.140 --> 02:01:28.600 slash at curmudgeons hyphen corner. 02:01:28.740 --> 02:01:33.620 If you want to check any of these episodes out on video and like, 02:01:33.640 --> 02:01:36.220 and subscribe and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:01:36.320 --> 02:01:39.000 You can be be notified of the live streams when they 02:01:39.000 --> 02:01:41.760 happen blah blah blah blah blah blah yeah i 02:01:41.760 --> 02:01:45.120 i post about the live streams in on mastodon and 02:01:45.120 --> 02:01:48.780 you can have youtube notify you if you want to see last week when 02:01:48.780 --> 02:01:51.760 i was by myself the entire time it said somebody was watching 02:01:51.760 --> 02:01:54.460 but i'm not sure if that like that might have been 02:01:54.460 --> 02:01:57.240 me i might have accidentally opened it in 02:01:57.240 --> 02:02:00.000 another window and seen it that way i don't know 02:02:00.000 --> 02:02:02.820 but anyway if you're interested 02:02:02.820 --> 02:02:05.700 in that you can have the unedited version with all the ums 02:02:05.700 --> 02:02:09.520 and ahs and interruptions and of course the website 02:02:09.520 --> 02:02:12.360 curmudgeons-corner.com also links to our patreon where 02:02:12.360 --> 02:02:15.140 you can give us money at various levels we will send you 02:02:15.140 --> 02:02:18.420 a post card we will send you a mug we will mention you on the show we will ring 02:02:18.420 --> 02:02:22.960 a bell all that kind of fun stuff and at two dollars a month or more or if you 02:02:22.960 --> 02:02:26.360 just ask us we will invite you to the curmudgeons corner slack where yvonne 02:02:26.360 --> 02:02:30.680 and i and a bunch of listeners are chatting and sharing links and blah, 02:02:30.780 --> 02:02:32.640 blah, blah, more, blah, blah, blah, more. 02:02:33.460 --> 02:02:36.960 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 02:02:37.400 --> 02:02:42.180 Anyway, we're doing that all week long. It would be great if more of you could 02:02:42.180 --> 02:02:44.100 join us. So if you're interested, let us know. 02:02:44.600 --> 02:02:49.360 So Yvonne, what's something from the curmudgeon's corner Slack in the last week 02:02:49.360 --> 02:02:54.700 that we have not talked about on the show that would entice people to come join 02:02:54.700 --> 02:02:58.140 our Slack because they have missed it because they weren't on the Slack? 02:02:59.100 --> 02:03:02.420 Musk's new AI image generator 02:03:02.420 --> 02:03:05.640 immediately used to troll him and images 02:03:05.640 --> 02:03:08.700 flooded and videos images what the 02:03:08.700 --> 02:03:15.460 heck images flooded X showing Musk carrying out a school shooting with Mickey 02:03:15.460 --> 02:03:21.320 Mouse or being let on a leash by Donald Trump and I'm looking at a picture so 02:03:21.320 --> 02:03:25.940 disgusting of Donald and him kissing no. 02:03:25.940 --> 02:03:27.540 No men kissing is fine. 02:03:28.580 --> 02:03:29.060 Now. 02:03:29.060 --> 02:03:30.780 Admittedly, it's Donald and Elon. 02:03:31.180 --> 02:03:37.180 That's what I'm saying. I mean, listen, I kiss guys, okay, as a hello, 02:03:37.380 --> 02:03:39.320 okay? It's not a big deal. 02:03:39.460 --> 02:03:40.340 With tongue, I'm sure. 02:03:40.400 --> 02:03:47.560 But not with tongue. I don't kiss like casual. Listen, I don't kiss casual people with tongue, okay? 02:03:47.800 --> 02:03:49.720 It's only, you know, for a few years. 02:03:49.940 --> 02:03:50.360 Tongue in the ear? 02:03:50.980 --> 02:03:52.400 No, no, on the cheek. 02:03:52.540 --> 02:03:55.620 You know. You just lick their cheek. cheek. 02:03:55.620 --> 02:03:56.660 Yeah but but see. 02:03:56.660 --> 02:03:57.640 These two clouds, 02:04:01.740 --> 02:04:07.900 what's the name of this thing grok is it it's grok grok xai yeah. 02:04:08.700 --> 02:04:12.800 So, well, people... Rock 2, the latest version of the chatbot startup, 02:04:13.060 --> 02:04:14.660 is available on X premium subscribers. 02:04:15.300 --> 02:04:18.720 Appears to let users make images that would fall foul of content restrictions 02:04:18.720 --> 02:04:20.180 used by some similar tools. 02:04:20.320 --> 02:04:24.100 As a result, bizarre and occasionally disturbing images were shared on X, 02:04:24.220 --> 02:04:26.720 depicting real people, including Musk himself. 02:04:28.400 --> 02:04:32.900 You mentioned Mickey Mouse. It's not just real people. It's also copyrighted 02:04:32.900 --> 02:04:37.660 intellectual property stuff that like a lot of these other AI generated tools, 02:04:37.880 --> 02:04:40.520 they're not very good at it. You can get around it. 02:04:40.580 --> 02:04:43.160 So like if you want to do like Disney characters doing stuff, 02:04:43.240 --> 02:04:44.720 you can do it in the others. 02:04:44.900 --> 02:04:50.140 But most of the others have some level of protection to make it harder to do that. 02:04:50.560 --> 02:04:53.340 Apparently, Grok has none of that because it's like, you know, 02:04:53.340 --> 02:04:58.200 free speech or whatever. and and as one of them shows the tesla. 02:04:58.200 --> 02:05:01.300 Boss holding a sign simply reading i am a pedo. 02:05:02.280 --> 02:05:06.120 Nice but like the the copyrighted stuff is going to get them in trouble even 02:05:06.120 --> 02:05:09.220 faster than this stuff i mean like elon's probably going to freak about these 02:05:09.220 --> 02:05:12.880 and people are have probably already been fired over this i'm sure they're already 02:05:12.880 --> 02:05:16.660 shut it down but but uh mickey mickey but like mickey. 02:05:16.660 --> 02:05:20.060 Bow saluting adolf hitler and donald duck using heroin. 02:05:20.060 --> 02:05:26.000 But how long how long will it take before four Disney's lawyers have talked to Hacks about this. 02:05:26.140 --> 02:05:28.360 I'm sure they're already doing so right now. 02:05:28.500 --> 02:05:35.020 Yes. Like, yeah. Like, this is the kind of thing that Disney does not smile at. 02:05:35.580 --> 02:05:37.280 No, not particularly. No. 02:05:37.360 --> 02:05:41.040 Disney is one of the companies that is well known for being really aggressive 02:05:41.040 --> 02:05:42.860 about their intellectual property. 02:05:43.140 --> 02:05:45.120 Here, I'm going to say that. 02:05:45.120 --> 02:05:49.020 To the point where they were, I think they've calmed down a little bit on this, 02:05:49.080 --> 02:05:54.020 but for a while they were like, they were in the news for like going after like 02:05:54.020 --> 02:05:59.380 preschools that had hand painted Mickey's painted on the walls and stuff. Yeah. 02:05:59.420 --> 02:06:01.840 They don't go after that. But for example, I do. 02:06:01.940 --> 02:06:03.960 They used to, they stopped because of the bad. 02:06:04.000 --> 02:06:08.120 They, they don't, but I know for a fact that they, they will, for example, uh, 02:06:08.830 --> 02:06:14.170 You know, like certain plays made out of Disney movies, they will allow it, 02:06:14.230 --> 02:06:18.810 but you better stick to their rules and restrictions around those, 02:06:18.890 --> 02:06:22.970 or otherwise you're done. Right. Okay? 02:06:23.590 --> 02:06:27.110 Like you can't live. Okay, you want to do the play? Great. You can't live stream 02:06:27.110 --> 02:06:29.110 it. You can't post it on YouTube. You can't do that. 02:06:29.330 --> 02:06:33.570 You know, you have to do all these things around them, for example. 02:06:33.630 --> 02:06:37.210 If not, then don't drop the hammer on you. Okay. 02:06:37.210 --> 02:06:41.510 And of course, with all of these companies, if you do that, you generally have 02:06:41.510 --> 02:06:45.090 to pay a license fee anyway. But I think Disney is pretty aggressive about that. 02:06:46.350 --> 02:06:51.010 It varies by company, but Disney is one of the more aggressive in terms of those kinds of things. 02:06:52.110 --> 02:06:59.530 Anyway, I'm sure Disney and others will be going after X for what Grok is doing. 02:07:00.090 --> 02:07:06.830 But like I said, I don't think you even need it. Because it's showing Elon himself 02:07:06.830 --> 02:07:08.970 in a negative light, he's going to crack down on them. 02:07:09.210 --> 02:07:09.650 Yeah. 02:07:10.090 --> 02:07:14.450 He'll take care of this himself. So anyway, basically. 02:07:14.610 --> 02:07:15.950 All right. Okay. We're done. 02:07:16.050 --> 02:07:22.110 We're done. Okay. That's it. Thank you, everybody. Have a nice, safe, exciting week. 02:07:22.610 --> 02:07:25.150 Do we have anything? Is there anything? 02:07:25.690 --> 02:07:28.650 Like, is it a holiday yet? No, it's not. It's not the holiday yet. 02:07:28.730 --> 02:07:31.230 We got a couple more weeks. Two weeks. Two weeks. 02:07:31.470 --> 02:07:36.490 Olympics are over. over, oh, we got the DNC coming up. So before we have our 02:07:36.490 --> 02:07:39.730 next show, the Democratic National Convention will have happened. 02:07:39.990 --> 02:07:45.730 Hopefully it will be fun and exciting and Harris will do well and all of the 02:07:45.730 --> 02:07:50.930 ex-presidents and Hillary Clinton will be there and do exciting things. 02:07:51.290 --> 02:07:57.390 It's feeling like it's going to have a lot more energy than the RNC had. We'll see. 02:07:57.390 --> 02:08:00.530 But let's just say that what i you know 02:08:00.530 --> 02:08:03.490 the one thing that i found exciting and i i'm hoping that 02:08:03.490 --> 02:08:08.790 he's well enough to be there jimmy carter basically said that he wants to just 02:08:08.790 --> 02:08:16.050 right now stay alive to vote to vote for harris yeah that was one of the fucking 02:08:16.050 --> 02:08:20.570 coolest things i've heard yeah i must say yeah. 02:08:20.570 --> 02:08:25.190 And i i yeah so he's yeah yeah that was touching. 02:08:25.190 --> 02:08:27.310 Like and yes and and And. 02:08:27.310 --> 02:08:29.510 You know, he's been on hospice for like a year. 02:08:30.380 --> 02:08:33.880 You know, and I've heard interviews with his grandson saying like, 02:08:33.980 --> 02:08:36.140 you know, when he entered hospice, we were expecting days. 02:08:36.400 --> 02:08:39.620 It's been a year, you know, so he's hanging. 02:08:39.640 --> 02:08:43.400 And look, hospice, you know, like sometimes people think it's like, 02:08:43.460 --> 02:08:48.700 you know, they're they're they're ill enough that they need that care sometimes. 02:08:49.380 --> 02:08:52.440 Yeah. And people expect that they will die, but it's not like they're actively 02:08:52.440 --> 02:08:54.140 trying to have them die. Right. 02:08:54.380 --> 02:08:54.740 Okay. 02:08:54.840 --> 02:08:58.920 All right. I just think that he will, but it's been the best, 02:08:59.000 --> 02:09:03.340 most palliative treatment for him in order for him to be as comfortable as possible. 02:09:03.420 --> 02:09:08.160 And well, there you go. Managed to be around me. 02:09:08.860 --> 02:09:13.940 So we'll see. Yeah. But we'll see if he makes it. But the convention itself, 02:09:14.180 --> 02:09:16.920 I mean, to be clear, the Republicans had a bunch of energy. 02:09:17.060 --> 02:09:20.180 They were sure they were like on a glide path to a win. 02:09:20.720 --> 02:09:23.760 And now everything's changed. We'll see how the Democrats do. 02:09:23.760 --> 02:09:25.240 I think it's going to be good. 02:09:25.300 --> 02:09:28.640 But it was, let's be clear, using a term, it was weird energy. 02:09:29.380 --> 02:09:37.180 I mean, the people they had on stage talking, I mean, they had Hulk Hogan. 02:09:38.000 --> 02:09:38.760 What the fuck? 02:09:39.360 --> 02:09:42.580 Well, they had a bunch of sort of washed up 80s people, and people have pointed 02:09:42.580 --> 02:09:46.160 out, well, Trump is mentally stuck in the 80s, so it all makes sense. 02:09:46.540 --> 02:09:49.560 Yeah. Yeah. Anyway. All right. Okay. 02:09:49.580 --> 02:09:52.780 We were saying goodbye. Bye, everybody. Have a great week. 02:09:52.820 --> 02:09:58.600 Stay safe. we'll talk to you next time goodbye say goodbye yvonne bye, 02:10:30.020 --> 02:10:35.780 okay thank you yvonne i'm gonna probably go crash and get more covid rustle 02:10:35.780 --> 02:10:39.100 fun fun fun all right i'll do that. 02:10:39.100 --> 02:10:41.240 Bye okay let's upload. 02:10:41.240 --> 02:10:43.260 Hitting stop stop.