Ivan: Hello.
Sam: Hello, Yvonne. How you doing?
Ivan: Hurry up.
Sam: Are we?
Ivan: I do it. I'm single dad right now.
Sam: So we got to.
Ivan: Well, Juana is in Washington State.
Sam: Yeah, you mentioned she was coming.
Ivan: Right. Yeah, she's four hours away driving. But I mean, she is closer to you than to me.
Sam: Nice. Nice, nice.
Ivan: But not that you could go and pop in to say hi now.
Sam: Right, right. Just a little too far. You know, four hours, I could do that.
Sam: You know, we're... Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, you go eight hours round trip seems very inconvenient, I must say.
Sam: Indeed. Okay, so. All politics?
Sam: Or butt first, then all politics? You want to do a butt first or you just jump right in?
Ivan: A minor butt first because I... I'm a minor, but first that I've got,
Ivan: then we got to jump in because I don't have time. I can't.
Sam: I understand. Yeah, I understand. Okay, here we go.
Sam: Wait a second.
Ivan: No, it's not right.
Sam: I know I did it wrong. Hold on.
Sam: I forgot to stick this on the live thing. Here we go. Well, we'll rewind it. Try again. Here we go.
Sam: Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, July 27th.
Sam: It's 2024. It is just after 220 UTC as we're starting to record this.
Sam: I'm Sam Andreevon Boas here.
Ivan: Hello. Hello. Hello.
Sam: And absolutely nothing happened this last week. Nothing at all.
Ivan: Nothing. It was totally uneventful.
Sam: Slowest news week in forever.
Ivan: Ever. Forever. I mean, you know, we, I mean, the Olympics. The Olympics. Amazing. oh yes.
Sam: Olympics they they they started.
Ivan: Yes then they add like a barely ceremony and celine dion was singing look i
Ivan: will say that that's momentous look i i you know i've always loved celine dion
Ivan: dating back to before she was even famous i i once like i i glimpsed her because
Ivan: i didn't have the time to hear her sing she was a,
Ivan: Well, I saw her in concert later, but the first time I saw her was in 92 in Seville, Spain.
Ivan: Okay. She was there at the World, that's when they, when World Expos were a thing.
Sam: Yeah. Because now nobody cares.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I recently, like within the last couple months, listened to an old episode of
Sam: this podcast where we talked about going to the Louisville World's Fair.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah.
Sam: Like, it was Louisville, right? With the Sunsphere.
Ivan: No, no, Knoxville.
Sam: Knoxville.
Ivan: I Knoxville close enough close.
Sam: Enough it was same part.
Ivan: Of that was one of those things not a thing okay it was close
Ivan: yeah you were close at least okay so Knoxville so that was like when you know
Ivan: when those were a thing and she was there and the guy who was hosting me who
Ivan: unfortunately is somebody that's passed away he was that old he was about our
Ivan: age unfortunately he had type 1 One diabetes and some other complications.
Ivan: And he wound up dying young, way too young. But anyway, I know.
Ivan: But he was he worked for he worked for a radio station covering the events for
Ivan: some major radio station in Spain.
Ivan: OK. And so he told me that they got, you know, she got to to meet her and talk
Ivan: to her and stuff and, you know, said how wonderful she was and whatnot.
Ivan: And I was mentioning how I liked her music and whatnot and so forth and so on.
Ivan: And I will say one thing that, yes, Celine Dion is a Francophone.
Ivan: She is, you know, French-Canadian. Now, I don't recall that her parents were from France.
Ivan: And now she sings in French very well. And it's how she started singing.
Ivan: I was just thinking, well, I mean, OK, it is. I mean, it's the Olympics in France.
Ivan: You've got OK. Yes, I know Celine sings in French. french but i mean i i did
Ivan: it didn't make that much sense to me other than the fact that she spoke french okay they liked they.
Sam: Liked her that's all you need.
Ivan: I guess but you know like over at
Ivan: the i was watching this thing about the olympics in
Ivan: london where they had james bond right yeah
Ivan: i remember you know do this intro and they had
Ivan: the with the queen and the queen the parachute and
Ivan: everything listen listen that still has to be
Ivan: that that that opening ceremony look those clips
Ivan: i mean they also had mr bean yeah you know with
Ivan: the orchestra which is hilarious i i have
Ivan: to say that almost all those opening ceremonies are boring and the british managed
Ivan: to make it really be cool i saw some of this it was i mean there are there are
Ivan: big events but it's like yeah okay now Now, but,
Ivan: but a lot of people, and I will consider because I just watched this,
Ivan: Celine Dion documentary recently, which is showing how the, the incredible difficulty
Ivan: she's having with her health and the fact that it's precluded her from singing.
Ivan: Okay. And it's, it's cost her quite severe ill health effects for a long time,
Ivan: which she was hiding masking.
Ivan: She was going in some concerts where there were tracks that were like recorded
Ivan: in order to cover for when she couldn't sing anymore at those tones,
Ivan: but she went and she sang in live in public, like but she hadn't done in years
Ivan: and so everybody quite a lot of people are very very emotional about that um.
Sam: Nice so.
Ivan: Yeah so that's the big story for the week i think we're done.
Sam: Oh yeah we can wrap it up so yeah uh and
Sam: now just to be clear no no we're not we're doing
Sam: we are doing our little but first thing even though like
Sam: there was stuff this week that was pretty big and then it was yeah yeah and
Sam: then uh and then we're just gonna like shift out of that into u.s politics because
Sam: obviously we had a few things happen this week just just a few and.
Ivan: Wait i mean i i i mean are you sure i.
Sam: Don't know like i you know i slept through most of the week so i don't know
Sam: no but yes yes we we had yeah well you.
Ivan: Guys all.
Sam: Know you know joe biden got.
Ivan: Out kamala.
Sam: Harris got in we got all kinds of stuff whoa hit thing we had all kinds of stuff
Sam: and uh yeah and and that's it
Sam: but uh you you said you had one but first thing what was it the olympics.
Ivan: Or do you got something the only thing now the only thing i was going to mention
Ivan: is that i had to get i i this week i,
Ivan: my airpods died out of the blue now i will say that i had noticed since i got
Ivan: this new pair of airpods which i had to get because unfortunately i left my
Ivan: old airpods in my pants and yeah i never leave stuff in my pants i remember.
Sam: You saying this.
Ivan: Yeah that's not a common thing i'm like look so
Ivan: he we we went and i had to get a new i had to get new airpods and so but i noticed
Ivan: that the sound out of these airpods was not as good as the old ones okay okay
Ivan: they just they just Just were not. I was always like.
Sam: You've got a dud pair of AirPods or something.
Ivan: Well, and then all of a sudden this week,
Ivan: I'm on a conference call, and one of them refused to connect to the computer.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And then all of a sudden, neither of them, the next day, neither of them would
Ivan: connect to any device at all. So I...
Sam: Did you buy these AirPods off, like, some random guy in the parking lot that was.
Ivan: Like, selling them out of the back of his truck? Yeah, yeah.
Ivan: Yeah, yeah. That's exactly what I normally, as I usually do.
Ivan: So, no. And so I contact Apple support.
Ivan: And I explain what's going on, and they say uh
Ivan: yeah try this try this no okay well
Ivan: we can make you a genius appointment at the apple store and like that
Ivan: was like at 11 there was one at 12 30 so i'm
Ivan: like okay fine you know i'm you know apple store is like
Ivan: very close to my household over there like during lunch you know try
Ivan: this and the first thing they tried is that first they
Ivan: they ran some diagnostic which managed to coax them
Ivan: back to connecting to stuff because they would they were
Ivan: refusing to connect to any device okay but then
Ivan: i put them back on and since i was there and i noticed
Ivan: this thing about the sound i put them back on i'm like damn it
Ivan: you know what listen the sound is not coming out right of
Ivan: these airpods okay there's just something not
Ivan: right and i'm like well we got this audio diagnostic tool in
Ivan: the back i'm gonna go take apparently so they've got this little do that
Ivan: apparently where they can put them in okay and they will check checks
Ivan: the sound and stuff off and whatever see if they're working or not that i
Ivan: find that really damn cool you know it's not
Ivan: like because let me tell
Ivan: you you got broken earphones of any other kind nobody is doing that to check
Ivan: that they're broken okay all right that's not happening okay so the fact that
Ivan: they've got this little thing to test the audio so they went to the back the
Ivan: the audio test all of a sudden i see them come out with some boxes i'm like
Ivan: what's going on oh your airpods are definitely the the
Ivan: speakers are defective. They're not working properly.
Ivan: So here's, so they gave me a new set of AirPods, you know?
Ivan: So that was, so I had, the other ones were just defective. I mean,
Ivan: so I had to get new AirPods.
Ivan: And then my work computer indicated that my battery is, and I had noticed the
Ivan: battery life on, it's already three years, is fading, okay? Okay,
Ivan: the battery performance is no good.
Ivan: Well, I will tell you something I found out pleasantly surprised.
Ivan: So we have at our company AppleCare Enterprise.
Ivan: Okay, and apparently they're going to send somebody to my house to replace the battery on the laptop.
Sam: Oh, nice.
Ivan: I mean, they're actually going to send somebody. I could have taken it to a
Ivan: store and said, oh, no, no, we can send somebody there.
Ivan: I'm like, really? Yeah, well, you just need to make sure they have a clean table
Ivan: this size for them to work in.
Ivan: And we will perform the repair on time.
Ivan: at your home so i was like okay so that's you don't get that.
Sam: With personal apple care.
Ivan: No don't this is.
Sam: A corporate apple care exclusive feature repair.
Ivan: Yes you know now there is
Ivan: one thing you know this type of
Ivan: repair to send somebody on site for a
Ivan: laptop i remember when i worked at hp okay that
Ivan: existed like in the 90s and
Ivan: 2000s hey you were paying several thousand dollars for
Ivan: a laptop and if you bought extended support right
Ivan: and i mean today's turns is probably like you know
Ivan: five six thousand dollars for a damn computer you
Ivan: know we we used to send people to go and like do on-site repairs to send the
Ivan: parts and i remember that i had one that an hp one does a problem and hp would
Ivan: send an engineer on site they had hp engineers that would go out and fix the
Ivan: damn thing okay but sometime in the early 2000s all the almost every tech company did away
Ivan: with that shit i mean they all did away with it and so i'm
Ivan: like surprised that if you know we talk about
Ivan: things going away that this is apparently the comeback
Ivan: i i i'm getting my my my
Ivan: laptop repaired at at at home so i i was just nice yeah so now i i did i i they
Ivan: did suggest that i make a backup and i have this western digital drive that
Ivan: i've used before but i have no idea it's an old usb 2.
Ivan: i think it's usb i don't know what format it is it's old it's older.
Ivan: No it's not even slower it's refusing it will not connect either to my studio
Ivan: or to my and i noticed this that drive would only connect to my older laptops
Ivan: it will not connect to the new ones that i don't know really old.
Sam: I i've got i've got.
Ivan: I think it is i've got seven i've.
Sam: Got a my the The oldest drive I have connected to this computer right now is
Sam: one I bought in July 2015 and it works fine.
Ivan: Well, I it's it's also a Western. No, but I have noticed that that that well,
Ivan: I've noticed that that drive had been finicky at connecting almost any hard
Ivan: drive. OK, for computer, for whatever reason.
Ivan: And now any and the newer and I noticed that the older ones that would connect
Ivan: none of the newer ones that would connect.
Ivan: And now apparently all of those
Ivan: new new equipment I got, it just won't connect. So I have to go find out.
Ivan: I have to go get a hard drive. I want to make up. I want to do a backup before God before I do that.
Ivan: So anyway, so that's I'm getting on site. And they're going to fix my...
Ivan: We'll see if they get here. Now, of course, I have to fly out on Tuesday and
Ivan: then come back Thursday. So I got to make sure I schedule it for a day then I'm here.
Sam: That would probably help.
Ivan: That might help, yes.
Sam: So, okay.
Ivan: Unless I can send an engineer to Puerto Rico. They might be.
Sam: They probably could.
Ivan: I don't... Yeah, now that I'm thinking about it, it's possible.
Ivan: No, no, no. I want to get it done here.
Sam: Okay. My turn?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: So as I promised last week, my movie this time is The Grapes of Wrath from 1940,
Sam: which I watched on February 11th of this year.
Sam: So it is based on a John Steinbeck book from 1939, which I have not read either.
Sam: But bottom line is it's a movie about the Great Depression.
Sam: It's people from Oklahoma who, because of the Great Dust Bowl and everything and the Depression,
Sam: tried to migrate to California and the various travails that they went through.
Sam: And I I'm, I'm watching this cause of the AFI list.
Sam: I neglected to check where on the AFI list it was.
Sam: Let me, let me tell you real quick. I'm grapes of wrath, February.
Sam: It's number 21 on the grapes.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I'm, I'm, I'm getting, I'm getting near the end here.
Sam: Like we're, we're, we don't have that much left on the AFI list,
Sam: but yeah, it was number Number 21, and I'm going to give it a thumb sideways.
Sam: I know this is like, you know, on the list of the greatest movies of all time.
Ivan: Shame. You uncultured twit.
Sam: That's me. I mean, it was fine, but I didn't feel like it was exceptional, right?
Sam: I mean, as I try to get back to, there we go.
Sam: Now, let's see. The film is widely considered to be one of the greatest films of all time.
Sam: It was one of the first 25 films selected by the Library of Congress for preservation
Sam: as being culturally or historically or aesthetically significant.
Sam: Let's see. Did it win any awards? Critical response. Yeah.
Sam: People who go to pictures for the sake of seeing pictures will see a great one.
Sam: possibly the best picture ever made from a so-so book these are contemporary reviews,
Sam: it won it won best director best supporting actor or actress yeah and so it
Sam: it won a bunch of awards you know yeah yeah.
Ivan: Yeah and but but you're you're.
Sam: Like i'm just yeah man it well i.
Ivan: Haven't watched it so i i want.
Sam: You know what we talked about this last week and you were you're supposed to
Sam: have homework. You were supposed to watch it before we talked this week.
Ivan: I must admit that I have been quite busy. I, yeah.
Sam: Anyway, the bottom line, I gave it a.
Ivan: So I failed again.
Sam: I gave it a thumb sideways because it felt a little long for me.
Sam: It moved a little slowly.
Sam: It had, yeah, it just never really like pulled me in.
Sam: It was, it was sort of interesting to see, like, you know, from a historical
Sam: point of of view and from a, and I, you know, obviously it's based on a novel.
Sam: It's not like nonfiction, but you know, is sort of, I haven't spent a lot of
Sam: time learning about that particular part of history,
Sam: the, the migration of people towards California during the great depression,
Sam: because of the, all the crops were failing and it wasn't just the crops were failing.
Sam: It was also like people were buying up all the farms and kicking off the small, the small landholders.
Sam: and so you know it was sort of interesting from that point of view and there
Sam: were a couple of interesting moments but it just didn't do anything for me i
Sam: don't know and and that that's all i got i mean i mean okay.
Ivan: So so you basically you're an uncultured you know one of these people.
Sam: Yeah i mean it was fine like that's why i'm giving it a side sideways and not
Sam: a down but like Like, yeah,
Sam: it's, you know, it's more interesting as a historical artifact than actually
Sam: being like, oh, I am entertained by this film or I, or even like I learned from this film.
Sam: It's just sort of like, oh, okay. It's a, it's a thing.
Ivan: Shameful. Shameful.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: We are a show just absolutely drenched in shape.
Ivan: We just shit on number 21 movie AFI.
Ivan: One of the top, one of the first 25 ever preserved by the United States.
Ivan: And basically, we just took a dump on it.
Ivan: That's a great show. I think that's a wrap. Okay, so we're done?
Sam: Well, I'll tell you. Yes, I'll give you the preview, though.
Ivan: Oh, no, we're done with the show.
Sam: Oh, yeah, we're done. but no no next yeah
Sam: the next movie next week is number 20 on the afi list which is what is one flew
Sam: over to cuckoo's nest from 1975 okay have you seen that one i think i think
Sam: i have save it for next week we're going to talk about it next week okay okay,
Sam: it's.
Ivan: Not capricorn one.
Sam: No okay is that another you're a capricorn one it's a it's a bad movie right
Sam: i and now i'm adding it to my stupid list it's.
Ivan: It's a it's it's it's not a great movie.
Sam: It's not a terrible movie does it have oj yes.
Ivan: It does okay.
Sam: So i knew something.
Ivan: It's the one where I think it was a fake mission to Mars that they go and they're
Ivan: supposed to be, yeah, they were supposed to be going and fake mission to, right, that's right.
Ivan: It's supposed to be the first mission to Mars. mars
Ivan: and apparently they right before the
Ivan: rocket is launched they take the crew out of the capsule because nasa have determined
Ivan: that they were going to die and they take him to a studio where they can fake
Ivan: everything and then what happens is that the heat shield on the on the capsule
Ivan: fails instead of arriving and it burns up and so they decide well we have to kill him.
Sam: Okay well thumbs Thumbs up? Thumbs sideways? Thumbs down?
Ivan: I'm going to give it a thumbs sideways because it was just the,
Ivan: I got to say that it was pretty good up until the end of the movie where the
Ivan: way that it ended was so tacky that it really ruined the movie.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: But it actually is pretty good up until you get to the end.
Ivan: okay i mean i don't understand how they could have fucked up to get get almost
Ivan: 80 percent of the movie right and then just at the edges oh we don't know how
Ivan: to end this we'll just figure out some idiotic way to do so okay.
Sam: Shall we take our.
Ivan: First break yes and.
Sam: Then we're just going to do politics and all the stuff associated it till the
Sam: end of the show okay here here comes the break.
Sam: Okay we are back so last week i actually like for once like got the podcast
Sam: out on like saturday evening instead of waiting till sunday night or even monday morning and,
Sam: that if i had waited we would have like i would have been calling yvonne and
Sam: been like hey can we do it like a little intro to the show or whatever because
Sam: of course sunday afternoon noon, Joe Biden does the,
Sam: I'm not running after all thing.
Sam: And kaboom, like everything changes.
Sam: Like, so, you know.
Ivan: We're going to say nothing happened.
Sam: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nothing happened. But, you know, and we talked about this,
Sam: you know, we've been talking about this for the last, what was it? Three weeks.
Sam: It was three weeks and three days from the debate until when he made his decision,
Sam: I think, or something like that.
Sam: And last week, we'd said there were lots of reports that it was now a matter
Sam: of when, not if, and it could come as soon as the weekend.
Sam: Now, Joe Biden's people were denying that up and down, left and right when we
Sam: recorded, but there was this weekend or last weekend.
Sam: And there have been a number of stories about how it played out and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: I think the bottom line, and then we'll talk about what happened after,
Sam: but the bottom line is that it had just made, been made completely untenable.
Sam: Like between like, now obviously there's the,
Sam: you know, the bad performance that Biden had at the debate itself,
Sam: but also just all of the three weeks of drama about this, we're just making
Sam: it worse and worse and worse, like regardless of biggest.
Ivan: Listen, I don't know, but the, the, the drama was in large part fueled by the
Ivan: fact that the rest of the democratic leaders is not like they came out in strong
Ivan: support of Biden afterwards,
Ivan: because if say all the governors, all the democratic governors and,
Ivan: schumer pelosi and everybody came to the white
Ivan: house and like showed his strong show of support
Ivan: for him okay it it
Ivan: it it probably would have been snuffed out
Ivan: in a week now i'll say um yeah i i it would have it would have really been far
Ivan: far less of a reaction it would have been less of reaction all of them yeah
Ivan: but they all kept but they they were doing the opposite they were feeding it but let me say.
Sam: They were absolutely actively feeding it.
Sam: I mean, the counterpoint is if they had done that, like there was a lot of reporting
Sam: and polls around and you, it's self-referential, right.
Sam: But about how people were like, look, I saw him.
Sam: I just don't believe you when you're defending him and you must be hiding something.
Sam: And there would always, even in that scenario, I mean, we've seen enough of,
Sam: you know, Joe Biden in those three weeks had a number of really good performances,
Sam: but he also had a few that were just sort of, eh.
Sam: And so the worry that at some point he would fall down again was always there. There was also just.
Ivan: He didn't, he didn't fall.
Sam: I know. I thought fall down metaphorically. I know.
Ivan: I know. Um, it's like, well, I mean, well, we've had other guys fall down.
Sam: Yeah. But, you know, so the worry would always be there.
Sam: And then you also had the fact that even before the debate, he was losing in
Sam: the polls and he was not like, well, OK, hang on.
Ivan: Back up one second. In the days leading to the debate, Biden had actually started
Ivan: taking a lead in the national.
Sam: In the national. Okay. Yes. Yeah. It had not yet reflected in critical swing
Sam: states, but yes, he had taken a very narrow lead in the national polls before the debate.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: And then that was all blown down by the debate.
Ivan: And I will say that the big strategic blunder that the Biden campaign did,
Ivan: okay, that created this situation was the fact that they decided to play it
Ivan: with Biden very conservative, where, okay, we don't want him to make a gaffe or a mistake.
Ivan: He is the incumbent.
Ivan: All the fundamentals are pretty solid in his favor.
Ivan: Let's not have him out there in situations Situations where he can,
Ivan: you know, make gaffes and mistakes that that then create certain problems.
Ivan: having to walk them back or whatever the heck it is.
Sam: So he wasn't, he wasn't out there. He wasn't active. He wasn't like getting the attention.
Ivan: And all he was doing was stump speeches. And the problem with,
Ivan: you know, and I was looking the other day and you go back like,
Ivan: geez, like some of the Obama campaigns, you know, in the eighties where we were
Ivan: doing like say town halls, you know, we haven't, you know, I don't see any of
Ivan: the candidates really do that kind of like stuff.
Ivan: You know, Biden has definitely not done that.
Ivan: I didn't see any of that in like 2016 that I recall either.
Ivan: It's something that people backed away. And I think that the the the blunder
Ivan: was that by hiding him, then you fed the narrative of, well,
Ivan: there's got to be something wrong if you're not putting him in these situations.
Ivan: Well, even though he was in public and he was doing stuff or whatever,
Ivan: but everybody's like, you know.
Sam: And that's all bullshit. And this will be relevant when we start talking about Harris.
Sam: But like the thing was that even when he was doing his best,
Sam: like there wasn't a lot of excitement around Joe Biden.
Ivan: No, no.
Sam: It was just.
Ivan: But Sam, part of this was, look, it's a self-fulfilling problem.
Sam: Yeah, no, absolutely.
Ivan: Look, because the problem is, okay, you had the Republicans for,
Ivan: I don't know, the last couple of years,
Ivan: astroturfing this whole thing that Biden was senile, that he was just this doddering
Ivan: old fool, that basically this is like Weekend at Bernie's with the presidency, okay?
Ivan: OK, they have been saying this over and over and over again.
Ivan: And the thing is that what what his campaign did in terms of that narrative was ignore it.
Ivan: Whereas what probably would have worked a hell of a lot better was that,
Ivan: you know what, even if he's out in public and he was making a mistake calling,
Ivan: you know, what's his name by the wrong name or whatever the fuck whatnot.
Ivan: Not, you know, those blunders are just, you know, those are minor,
Ivan: you know, compared to him answering questions from the public,
Ivan: like in an open forum and taking questions and doing a press conference and
Ivan: answering questions and showing that, you know, he's got command of the facts,
Ivan: even though he sometimes will make a mistake that that has to be walked back.
Ivan: Look, I mean, you know, it wouldn't be the first president that was in a live
Ivan: press conference where his staff had to go back and say, oh,
Ivan: no, no, no, no, no. That's not what we meant about, you know, whatever.
Ivan: OK, I mean, and that fear, you know, they they paralyze themselves into that.
Ivan: You've got the other guys doing the narrative and, you know,
Ivan: and then he goes out and lays a massive egg. Yeah.
Sam: And on national TV. me well and and like i
Sam: you know last week when we were talking about it i i was
Sam: saying you know hey if they're really going to force him out like that for me
Sam: to feel like totally justified that that was the right thing to do these people
Sam: have to know like more than was public like and i and i've heard a couple people
Sam: say like you know in their private interactions with him,
Sam: he'd clearly lost a few steps i don't know but like the other thing is even
Sam: that there's There's also the cold calculation that says,
Sam: you know, by the time you got a couple of weeks into this, like this,
Sam: there was so much damage already done that it wasn't repairable.
Sam: And so, but, but.
Ivan: But here's the thing. We say that, right? We say that the reality is that the
Ivan: national polling average didn't really move that much.
Ivan: In terms of like, look at where it was in May to where it was now where you
Ivan: got Trump's shot and the RNC, which gave him a boost.
Sam: In the end, from right before the debate to right before he dropped out,
Sam: he lost about 4% during those three weeks.
Ivan: But you know i mean add all the when you're talking about that in the grand
Ivan: scheme of key four percent is basically the within the fucking margin of error
Ivan: it is but like but what people pointed out over and.
Sam: Over again is that the the amount of slosh you have the number of people in
Sam: the middle who are changing their minds is much smaller than it has been in
Sam: previous cycles so four percent is effectively bigger because it's much harder to move the numbers.
Ivan: Because there's so many but sam again i go back to the fact that after it happened,
Ivan: instead of circling the wagon yeah yeah yeah what you had was that reaction
Ivan: we had the circular firing squad exactly instead of a circle in the wagons he
Ivan: had a circle and firing squad If you circled the wagons,
Ivan: you may have had like a 2% impact, okay?
Ivan: But you add...
Ivan: totally the opposite effect and everybody went and like just decided that we're going to this.
Ivan: Now, look, there is an important thing.
Ivan: Biden had, and I mean, even when he won the first time around, low enthusiasm.
Sam: Oh, yeah.
Ivan: I mean, he won, but for whatever reason, people weren't enthusiastic about him. I I, I, I.
Sam: Yeah, I, he, he, I don't know why he pulled out a squeaker winning the majority
Sam: of the double haters who hated both him and Trump, but they went for Biden in the end.
Sam: But there were lots and lots of people last time around who didn't like either of them.
Sam: Well, the last few elections, the same thing was true of Clinton and Trump,
Sam: you know, where huge numbers of people were like, I really don't want either of them.
Ivan: I hate both of them.
Sam: I hate both of them. And, and that's been the dynamic and that,
Sam: you know, and, and it, you know, it, it, it, after the debate,
Sam: like it just, that just got worse, you know?
Sam: And, and so you're absolutely right.
Sam: The circular firing squad, if, if people had sort of defended him,
Sam: I think the narrative had been growing anyway, that said, you know,
Sam: there were a lot of people who didn't believe the defense.
Sam: And that would have been even more after.
Ivan: Well, Sam, there were a lot of people that before, but it goes back to what
Ivan: I said about not countering the narrative in the first place and keeping them in there.
Ivan: Everybody, even before that, I heard it over and over, the doddering old fool, the blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: This narrative been going and going and going and going.
Ivan: And you're not doing anything to counter that. Okay. Anything significant. Okay.
Ivan: And so they and they let that out there where the problem was that if you're
Ivan: going to have that narrative and your strategies to ignore it,
Ivan: then if you're going to go out in public, you better hit it out of the fucking park. Right.
Ivan: And what he did was the opposite. Now, there's a lot of good reasons why it
Ivan: happened. But you know what?
Ivan: When when they've set that narrative and then you confirmed that for the people
Ivan: that believe that, then it's, you know, is a very difficult situation.
Ivan: And then and then the people that supposedly are supposed to be your biggest
Ivan: supporters basically just they they they actually were actively undermining him.
Sam: Right. And, you know, to give the benefit of the doubt, they honestly felt that
Sam: he couldn't do this, that he couldn't bring.
Ivan: I think I listen. Let me tell you something. I think that's a lot of bullshit.
Ivan: I think that a big part of it is, I will say, is that these guys thought that
Ivan: they had the opportunity to put whomever it is that they wanted,
Ivan: okay, instead of Biden, okay?
Ivan: Because none of them wanted Biden in the first place.
Sam: And, and they didn't want Harris either. So let's not, let's move.
Ivan: And they didn't want Harris either. Okay. So let's be clear about this.
Ivan: They didn't want, they wanted the opportunity to fucking put wherever the hell
Ivan: they wanted in. That's what they wanted.
Sam: So, so now let's, let's move to the next stage of this. Donald,
Sam: Donald Trump. See, I'm doing it again. I'm calling Biden Trump.
Sam: Every week, every week I'm doing this.
Sam: Anyway, the Biden put out his announcement saying I'm out.
Sam: and the immediate reaction was look he didn't endorse anybody he said that we
Sam: need to have like a process whatever blah blah blah a micro.
Ivan: An open convention.
Sam: Blah blah blah all kinds of people right after that announcement were jumping
Sam: in talking about the open process talking about how we need how we need like
Sam: some sort of thing convention sam people people were putting out like Like.
Ivan: The Slack bot was right again.
Sam: Yeah. People were putting out plans about like, Hey, we're going to have a series of events.
Sam: Oprah Winfrey is going to host one and we're going to do this.
Sam: And we're going to do that.
Ivan: And Oprah Winfrey, what the fuck?
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Somebody actually threw that out.
Sam: Oh yeah. They, they had, they said.
Ivan: Joe Manchin thought he was going to be the nominee too.
Sam: Somebody had put out the plan of how this would work. And there was going to
Sam: be a series of five events and they listed who they wanted to be the hosts of
Sam: each one of them. and Oprah Winfrey was one of them. And I forget who the others were.
Sam: They were all sort of famous Democrat leaning celebrity type folks.
Sam: And, you know, and they, they had this whole plan about how you were going to
Sam: have a bunch of people toss their hats into ring, have some mini debates,
Sam: have some events, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And then a big vote at the convention. And that was going to excite people and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And all of this conversation was going on. And then,
Sam: About 15 minutes after the initial announcement, Biden comes out.
Ivan: I mean, literally all that shit happened in 15 minutes.
Sam: Well, people were, people were already talking about that before Biden's announcement.
Sam: And in that 15 minute gap, like all of the talking heads and all of the people
Sam: on, you know, all the social medias and stuff were going crazy talking about,
Sam: okay, well now this is, this plan has to be activated.
Sam: We're going to do this and we're going to do that. and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And Harris is obviously in the mix, but there are all these other people too and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And so after that 15 minute gap, Joe Biden comes in and sends a second post
Sam: out saying, I endorse Kamala Harris.
Sam: I think she's wonderful. She's amazing. She needs to be the person.
Sam: I forget the exact words, but it was along those lines.
Sam: I give her my full-fledged endorsement and then kaboom like it seems like all
Sam: of the other efforts collapsed almost immediately for the first couple hours
Sam: there were still people talking a little bit but even in the first couple hours
Sam: that had diminished a whole.
Ivan: Bunch of very important endorsements started coming.
Sam: Out right it started like it started building like very very within like 15
Sam: minutes of biden's endorsement you You started to get other important endorsements.
Sam: And, you know, and by the time I'll tell you one.
Ivan: I'll tell you two people that I figured out that really love Joe Biden.
Sam: OK.
Ivan: All right. More than just by the way, that above anybody, the Clintons.
Sam: OK.
Ivan: I mean, because I don't know if you saw, but not only were they behind them
Ivan: when everything was going on, but they were one of the first to go.
Ivan: And like, oh, he said, Kamala. OK, we're we're you know.
Sam: They were they were within the first. Oh, yeah.
Ivan: Oh, yeah. They were like, boom. Oh yeah, we're in. He's right.
Sam: And, and, and, you know, so within the first few hours, you started getting
Sam: a whole bunch of endorsements and that train just accelerated.
Sam: Uh, you also start, and of course Kamala came out like 15 minutes, half an hour later.
Sam: I forget exactly how long it was saying, of course I'm running.
Sam: Let's go do this. Blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And, and, and then they started raising money,
Sam: huge amounts of money, huge amount of months Like within the first 24 hours,
Sam: you had almost a hundred million directly to Kamala's campaign,
Sam: mostly from small donors.
Sam: And then you, I also saw reported, you had like nearly another hundred,
Sam: 150 going to associated packs from big money donors.
Sam: And so within the first 24 hours, you essentially had like a quarter billion
Sam: dollars coming to support this right away.
Sam: And it's continued since then.
Ivan: And that basically, I think that sealed it.
Ivan: That was like, when numbers came out, it was like, okay, this is game over. I mean, there's just...
Sam: And then you started seeing a parade of all of the people who had been talked
Sam: about as other candidates besides Harris.
Sam: one by one started coming out and saying i endorse harris i endorse harris i
Sam: endorse harris rather than throwing their own hat into the ring the the only
Sam: exceptions were a trial balloon from joe mansion which got shut down right fast and marianne that was.
Ivan: Like comedic i mean.
Sam: And marianne fucking williamson which was just ignored by everybody you know.
Ivan: And he was like, who?
Sam: And so the other thing I'll say is in addition to all of the endorsements and all of the money,
Sam: the other thing is that almost immediately this started to be a social media
Sam: phenomenon in favor of Harris as well.
Ivan: Listen, there is a massive shift in enthusiasm.
Sam: And this is what I want to say. And I want to say this flat out.
Sam: My main concern, well, I had two concerns really.
Sam: One was you're treating Biden like shit.
Sam: But the other, the practical concern is I would be willing to treat Biden like
Sam: shit as long as you were definitely trading for a better option that had a better chance.
Sam: And what I was worried about was that you would have this open convention bullshit
Sam: and a whole bunch of people contending and a bunch of like a fight over who
Sam: would get the nomination that would leave everybody with hard feelings and feeling
Sam: instead of enthusiasm bubbling up for out of the result of this,
Sam: it would be a bunch of people with hurt feelings and a bunch of upset and a
Sam: bunch of chaos. And that was my biggest concern.
Sam: But I will say flat out right now.
Sam: I was wrong. I was completely fucking wrong.
Sam: And I think part of it is, you know, the way Joe Biden did this,
Sam: and we'll talk more about that in a second, but what we've actually seen here
Sam: is such a massive change.
Sam: Like, you know, we, I said earlier, like, you know, there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for Joe Biden.
Sam: Basically the mood was, especially after the three weeks of dumping on Joe Biden,
Sam: the mood was sort of like, okay, it's like, okay, fine.
Sam: We're going to do this. We will do our best. We will, we still have a shot,
Sam: but like, we, we know it's a long shot, but we have a shot.
Sam: We can make this happen and we will sort of dutifully go out and do our best. And by the way.
Ivan: I still will argue again, that it wasn't a long shot that, that the entire thing
Ivan: about how bad it was or how good it was, it was overblown.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: All right. So I, Sam, I,
Ivan: Sam, Trump in 2016 was losing by that much. I mean, look, I mean, no.
Sam: By the end.
Ivan: Biden supposedly, listen, Biden supposedly was going to, the polls in the summer
Ivan: were a blowout, you know, for Biden.
Ivan: And it turned into a squeaker. Yeah.
Sam: So listen, I'm sorry.
Ivan: No, the whole narrative that this was, called and done for was also overdone.
Ivan: I get the concerns about what the numbers were, but saying that in July it's
Ivan: over, it's just always idiotic.
Sam: Yes. And you're absolutely right.
Sam: The worst Biden's tipping point that I track on election graphs got was just over 5%.
Sam: There were times in 2016 and 2020 where the Democrat was ahead by over 6%,
Sam: over 7% even.
Sam: And like you said, in 2016, Trump came back and won. In 2020,
Sam: Trump came back and made it very, very close.
Sam: But I think the worry was that Joe Biden didn't have what it took to make that kind of comeback.
Ivan: But all I'm saying, and I want to be clear, is that, listen,
Ivan: that the whole thing that all is lost narrative was ridiculous.
Ivan: Now, I do, Listen, like I said, were you on the back foot? Sure.
Ivan: But keep continuing to say that all is lost, which is just dumb puckery.
Sam: But my point is, we went from that glum, dutiful, we will try our best.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: Because, you know, look, we're in a bad situation, but we'll do our best.
Sam: We'll give it the good college try. Right.
Sam: But sort of a resigned view of like, OK, we got to make this work.
Ivan: Yeah, we got to do this. We got to make this.
Sam: We went from that to a few hours later, actual like enthusiasm breaking out fucking everywhere.
Ivan: Let me let me give you a number, a stat about that.
Ivan: OK, Wall Street Journal. This is for an article in Bloomberg that I was reading
Ivan: tonight about the polls and how how the race has shifted.
Ivan: wall street journal poll found similar shifts it's
Ivan: talking about shifts in enthusiasm while only 37 percent
Ivan: of biden voters were enthusiastic nice and
Ivan: food and food and food and food jesus enthusiastic enthusiastic about his candidacy
Ivan: less than a month ago now 81 percent of harris voters said they were enthusiastic
Ivan: so from 37 to 81 percent yeah Yeah.
Sam: Enthusiasm.
Ivan: I mean, that's an important... You don't get a shift like that.
Ivan: I mean, that's a crazy shift.
Sam: And it's also important... I mean, everybody's more enthusiastic,
Sam: but specifically some of the groups are like... Oh, yeah.
Ivan: Speaking of groups...
Sam: Go ahead. You got the numbers.
Ivan: Yeah, I got numbers. 81, you know, winning just 59% of black registered voters
Ivan: a month ago, Harris at 69 share of Hispanic voters.
Ivan: Okay. To 57 from 45 voters under 30 from 46 to 56.
Ivan: So yeah. So you see, you know, all those boom, boom.
Sam: Boom, boom, boom. Yeah. And that's the enthusiasm numbers, right? Yes.
Sam: And like I started to mention, she became a social media phenomenon.
Sam: Like, yes, the memes have been out of control.
Sam: There's like songs, there's like various clips of her doing things remixed into other things.
Sam: there's and the other thing is right
Sam: off the bat like as soon as she came
Sam: out the gate actually campaigning and doing
Sam: press releases and all that stuff she has been more
Sam: aggressive about going after donald trump
Sam: than biden has been at all like just
Sam: effectively going out and hitting him and responding to things that are happening
Sam: in near real time and being really really aggressive about it and to the point
Sam: and doing it in a way that resonates and gets attention as well.
Sam: It's just the energy level from, you know, first of all, there's enthusiasm
Sam: of the public, but also you can
Sam: tell the energy, her energy level is something that Biden could not do.
Ivan: Well, that, that is a hundred percent true. I mean, Biden could not.
Sam: Yeah. Even when he was younger, he didn't have that kind of personality to be
Sam: honest, but certainly when he was older, you know? No.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You ever had that personality and definitely now,
Ivan: you know? Yeah. No, no. That, that, that is a hundred percent.
Sam: And so she's out there, she's responding to things like the,
Sam: you know, there's new, new posts and things from her. She's going out and doing
Sam: rousing speeches, and people are excited.
Sam: And you mentioned the enthusiasm polls.
Sam: At election graphs, the state polls, like prior to Joe Biden dropping out,
Sam: it had been months since there had been Harris polls, Harris versus Trump polls
Sam: at the state level until the debate.
Sam: And then there started to be a trickle of them. That trickle of them after the
Sam: debate and before Joe Biden dropped out, the movement was basically the Harris
Sam: versus Trump numbers were converging to the Biden versus Trump numbers.
Sam: They were getting closer and closer together because my averages started out
Sam: with her doing better because there are still lots of states where there hadn't been 2024 polls.
Sam: And so there were things like, you know, if you look back, like I start my five
Sam: poll average with the average of the previous five elections.
Sam: Obviously goes back many, many years. But you have, for instance,
Sam: things like, you know, Iowa, if you average out the last five elections,
Sam: actually very close because there have been years it was blue and years that it was red.
Sam: Iowa is now pretty reliably red. We have zero polls so far of Harris versus Trump in Iowa.
Sam: So my average in Iowa still shows that it's close, but it probably really isn't.
Sam: And the same is true of a couple more states that have gotten redder over Their
Sam: states got bluer over time too, but on balance,
Sam: the position as we got more 2024 polls looked worse and worse for Harris,
Sam: and it was converging to the Biden numbers.
Sam: That trend reversed as soon as Biden actually dropped out and she became the
Sam: real candidate and all of this attention started happening.
Sam: happening we've i mean it's only been a few days my
Sam: god it's been like what five and a half days or something
Sam: since that since the announcement it's been three weeks but there have now been
Sam: a flood of harris versus trump polls and practically with every one that comes
Sam: out harris's numbers improve and so you know we still have like a lot of states
Sam: where we don't have good data yet But,
Sam: you know, we're, we're, it's filling in fast and as it's filling in,
Sam: Harris is looking better and better.
Sam: And at this, and along with the national polls that also show like that gap,
Sam: you know, I'd meant, you know, we, we mentioned that after the debate on average
Sam: in the national polls, Trump Biden lost four percentage again,
Sam: about, about four percent. Yeah, I know. I know.
Sam: That the, the, the initial batch of Harris versus Trump polls,
Sam: dead heat again, dead heat.
Sam: So she's right out of the gate within the first week doing significantly better
Sam: than Biden and the national polls.
Sam: And it's starting to look like that in the state polls too, are the,
Sam: although we still need more to feel confident about that.
Ivan: I saw, I mean, I saw a number of state polls that really had some huge swings
Ivan: to Harris, like Minnesota.
Ivan: I think I saw in some other places where they were like polls that, holy shit.
Ivan: I mean, you know, they, they really.
Sam: Yeah, comparing to Biden.
Ivan: Yeah, comparing to Biden.
Sam: When you look at the averages, it does seem like gut feel.
Sam: About that 3% or 4% better than Biden was doing in most states, it looks like.
Sam: We're getting a ton of these, and we're going to have even more over the next
Sam: week, I'm sure. We'll have a much better picture in another week.
Sam: The other thing is, and just to keep this in mind...
Sam: It's very possible that there'll be an initial bounce that fades a little bit,
Sam: but here's the other thing. Well, I want two things to cover.
Sam: Let's talk more about Harris and her campaign and Trump reacting to them.
Sam: But before we move on completely, I just want to go back a second to the way that Biden did this.
Ivan: That's what I wanted to get back to that.
Sam: We skipped over that. The whole way that he did... He was clearly pushed out. He did not want to go.
Sam: But once he decided he was going to go, all of these...
Ivan: Well, let's be clear about this. Okay, wait, wait. Hold on one second.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: You know, Biden is the only one that could decide to get out.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Okay, all right. You know, the push out... You know, Biden was basically... You know, how do I say?
Ivan: He was... He was pushed out isn't the right thing. Biden was basically...
Ivan: You know, he was...
Ivan: They cornered him, and I think that the part that became an issue,
Ivan: which I think that probably he saw as a significant challenge,
Ivan: was how money started to be completely dry up. Okay. Yeah.
Ivan: With the big, with big money donors, they, they had started withholding money.
Ivan: So I, I think that that was definitely the part where, look,
Ivan: you could have done a Trump.
Ivan: I mean, Trump never, Trump would have never, I mean, you know,
Ivan: the Republican party and everybody could have said, well, you know,
Ivan: whole bunch of donors said, we're not giving you a dollar.
Ivan: He never back away. way he could have done that but the reality is that he.
Ivan: I think that to him it was look I need all these things lined up in order to win right,
Ivan: and the allies I'm counting on are not there the money is not there so it winds
Ivan: up on him deciding okay I can hang on they can't really force me out do I do that,
Ivan: And, you know, bring upon the nation, maybe some very negative consequences
Ivan: that I don't want on the nation.
Ivan: Or do I just, you know what, I go and I make what tactically is the best decision
Ivan: for everybody, even though it's not, I, I, I, I don't agree with everybody's
Ivan: opinion about what they're assessing about it.
Ivan: But sometimes, you know, it is perception is reality and it doesn't matter if,
Ivan: if the, you know, the narrative is wrong. I mean, the reality is you get caught in it and I mean.
Sam: You can't do anything about it. In the end, he made the assessment that fair
Sam: or not, he was now in a situation where what had already, what was already going
Sam: to be a hard race was going to be even harder.
Sam: And he didn't even have his own team behind him.
Sam: And making a shift at that time would give the Democrats a better chance. now the and.
Ivan: The one thing is that the timing if it was going to happen it
Ivan: had to be now yeah well it
Ivan: couldn't there was you know this was and i and i you know i think we talked
Ivan: about this a little bit earlier is like you know whatever and i said look the
Ivan: one thing i i had said about this if this is going to happen this is when it
Ivan: needs to happen well it can't be in september well and no no no.
Sam: It It can't be in September, like after the convention would make everything
Sam: much harder, but already like it, it was clear the people who wanted him out were not stopping.
Ivan: And so, and I know, but, but the whole, the whole thing is that,
Ivan: look, they couldn't listen.
Sam: You couldn't let this had already gone on three weeks. You couldn't let it go on.
Ivan: You know, you could, I mean, like I said, you could, but it's like.
Sam: It would be, it It depends on who the person.
Ivan: No, no. But look, it depends on who you are as a person.
Ivan: It really boiled down to that at that moment. Okay. Well, if it was Donald Trump
Ivan: in the same situation. He would have pushed on.
Ivan: And he would have powered on through the whole fucking thing all the way through.
Sam: But Joe Biden knew that continuing to power on through this situation would
Sam: not necessarily make the situation better.
Ivan: No.
Sam: And he knew he was already damaged. he knew
Sam: that you know at this point like doing the switch was almost yeah like like
Sam: you said yes he could have powered on but to have a good outcome he probably
Sam: needed to drop out at that point it was it was too late to recover from the internal pressure yeah.
Ivan: And the problem is that the internal pressure is like i said you know none of
Ivan: these people were backing down look in the week Listen,
Ivan: in the week before, you know, during the RNC, you know, powerful Democrats were
Ivan: using other Democrats to continue to pressure Biden.
Ivan: Like this whole Adam Schiff thing, for example, that happened and other stuff
Ivan: and whatnot, which to me, it seemed like, okay, you know, hey,
Ivan: which one of us is going to volunteer to go and be the pressure guy?
Ivan: And he once said, okay, I'm doing it. Okay.
Ivan: You know, it's like I said, look, if you to go and do something like this, you need the allies.
Ivan: Okay. And if none of these people are willing to go and like do like,
Ivan: I don't know, what the hell is the name of the speaker at a house?
Ivan: The guy that the porn monitor?
Ivan: What's his name? Mike Johnson, right? Is it Mike Johnson? Is that douchebag called Mike Johnson?
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Speaker at a house?
Sam: Yes. Okay.
Ivan: Yeah. I don't know. Just double check. You know, like Mike Johnson go out to
Ivan: fucking court after Trump gets convicted, literally convicted of 34 fucking
Ivan: felonies. And these fucking clowns are all over there.
Ivan: Oh, we're with you. Yes, you're our criminal.
Sam: So, I mean, so.
Ivan: I mean, seriously, not even Bob
Ivan: Menendez, who fucking has powered through everything, even he's resigning.
Sam: So getting back to what Biden did, basically, when he decided he was going to
Sam: get out, he decided he was going to control how and when he was going to do
Sam: it and who would be his successor.
Sam: And so, first of all, on timing, he probably decided a few days at least before
Sam: he actually made the announcement.
Sam: I, it might've even been as early as the previous weekend, but I think timing
Sam: wise, he also knew wait till the RNC is over.
Ivan: Oh yeah, it was the perfect moment because if you get the bump into whatever,
Ivan: what not from them, blah, blah, blah, go and fucking just, just jam this right through.
Ivan: So basically you completely knock out their narrative.
Sam: Well, cause on, on the other hand, I was thinking for a little bit like,
Sam: okay, we had three weeks of this chaos. This had to be harmful.
Sam: Wouldn't it have been better if Biden had just dropped out immediately after
Sam: the debate? But no, no, it would not have.
Sam: This was, this is much better timing. you have
Sam: the three weeks of chaos but then he drops out right after
Sam: the rnc it maximizes the effectiveness of that change and you know he also screwed
Sam: the media a little bit by waiting till after all the sunday morning shows were
Sam: over you know there's a little tiny bit of additional you know but you know
Sam: but the main thing was waiting till after whatever i'm.
Ivan: Like give me a fucking break yeah but what the fuck do that many fucking favors.
Sam: Right and so but then the The Kamala announcement,
Sam: his endorsement of Kamala Harris, he just immediately kneecapped all of those
Sam: people who wanted to get rid of both of them and wanted to have the whole open
Sam: primary and we'll have votes at the convention.
Sam: And there were a whole bunch of people arguing that the crazy convention would
Sam: actually excite everybody and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And like you said, there are a bunch of people who are sort of angling to get
Sam: one of their folks in. You know, not listen.
Ivan: Given the circular firing squad that happened the last three weeks,
Ivan: what the hell would give me the impression that an open convention wouldn't
Ivan: wind up being another circular firing squad?
Sam: Yeah. And like we've said for weeks and weeks, if you did replace Biden and
Sam: it was anybody other than Harris.
Sam: That would be disastrous in its own way. Like if you screwed over Kamala Harris. I, oh my God.
Ivan: I mean, the, the, you know, the, the congressional cock, you know,
Ivan: what the hell is their name?
Sam: Congressional caucus or congressional backlog. Which caucus are you talking about? There are many.
Ivan: Them. Yes.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: You know how pissed those people would have been.
Sam: Oh yeah.
Ivan: And imagine passing it up to some other white dude.
Sam: Right. You know, yes. Yeah.
Sam: Like you, you, you give it to, you know, what's his name in California?
Sam: Newsome or something. Newsome or Shapiro or whatever.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah.
Sam: Just some, some random white dude who's more centrist and, you know,
Sam: cause a big part of this was driven by the quote unquote donor class as well.
Sam: And so a lot of the impression was they, they wanted to get somebody who'd be
Sam: a little bit more aligned with their interests as like rich white dudes. You know, I mean.
Ivan: Listen, we've had like I was talking about all the tech bros and all these other people.
Sam: I mean, they're mostly Trump Republican ticket.
Ivan: Yeah, I mean, right. But but you still had a whole bunch of you still had some others to you.
Ivan: You've got listen, you've got the guys that wanted to fucking trot out mansion.
Sam: I mean come on no i i just laughed at that i'm like are.
Ivan: You fucking kidding me.
Sam: He if he had put his name in contention
Sam: at an open convention he'd be lucky if he got like five delegates out of thousands
Sam: to vote for him like probably the democrats that you know he he's left the democratic
Sam: party he would have to rejoin in order to even do that but like none he was not loved at best he was
Sam: like no it's like okay tolerate it's like okay he
Sam: was tolerated he's better than a republican it's a
Sam: miracle that we have somebody in west virginia who'll even
Sam: vote with us some of the time you know yes and
Sam: so he was tolerated because of that anyway yeah he
Sam: not so but i think this is i think a lot of those people including pelosi including
Sam: others like saw biden do that and we're like you know we got biden out but the
Sam: rest of our plan just collapsed well.
Ivan: That well well that was my whole point about you know where you're talking about
Ivan: for you know force out i'm like look the only guy who could decide to leave
Ivan: was him and biden decided okay all right all you assholes are not you know that
Ivan: i've done you know but the the fucking guys that are perpetrated this This entire,
Ivan: you know, a lot of this shit happening the last three weeks.
Ivan: Okay, fine. I'll leave. I'm fucking leaving on my fucking terms.
Ivan: Not, you know, you guys don't get to dictate how I go.
Ivan: These guys couldn't dictate me to go into first place. Bye.
Ivan: I'll give you this and not anything else. Right. And I'm perfectly happy with that.
Sam: And by the way, I picked Kamala Harris for a reason. I believe in her.
Sam: I think she'd make a good president. it. I've been working with her closely
Sam: for nearly four years and yeah here we go like and.
Ivan: I guess she's not fucking couches,
Ivan: Which apparently is not a true, apparently is a correction.
Sam: I meant to do that correction at the very beginning of the show,
Sam: but forgot. Yes, J.D. Vance, well.
Ivan: Did not write in his book, okay.
Sam: Yes, let's be careful.
Ivan: Because what you said was, let's be clear, we're not saying that he didn't do
Ivan: it. Right. Because we can't know for sure.
Ivan: But what you said was that he wrote about it in the book.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Hillbilly Elegy. And apparently that's not correct.
Sam: Apparently that's not true. There was a hoax perpetuated by somebody on Twitter
Sam: who said so and produced some fake images of a page in the book, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And yeah, so he did not have sex with a couch.
Ivan: No, no, no.
Sam: Oh, no, no. He did not write about. Like, I mean, the actual thing.
Sam: I mean, who hasn't? I mean, come on.
Sam: You know, so.
Ivan: Trying to think. Not a couch.
Sam: Not a couch.
Ivan: I mean, I've had sex on a couch, but not with the couch. Not with the couch.
Sam: Right. But here's the thing. I saw someone saying, you know,
Sam: all of these people figuring out how to do opposition research on J.D.
Sam: Vance, and some stone teenager just makes up a post about this.
Sam: And all of a sudden, he's having to deny it.
Ivan: And and like their.
Sam: Memes all over the internet about couches and all of this kind of stuff and like you know.
Ivan: Hey hey hey you know what how how
Ivan: many years of me listening to the fact that apparently joe biden is a clone
Ivan: okay what alex just said that joe biden apparently is a clone this is a clone
Ivan: that's in the white house okay that's one of the latest ones you know be listening
Ivan: to this shit you know we you know what let's i mean let's just fuck with these
Ivan: guys for a little or something where there are bullshit. You know, what the hell?
Sam: So anyway, uh, getting back to, we've got all of this enthusiasm on the Harris side.
Sam: We've got Harris, like it's actually been amazing to see we're like five days
Sam: in and she completely ramped up this campaign.
Sam: Now, you know, she had to have an idea that this might be coming. So there might've been.
Ivan: I, yeah, and I'm sure. And, and, and let's be clear, you know,
Ivan: Biden endorsed her directly.
Ivan: He basically told us handed over the campaign infrastructure.
Ivan: Listen, exactly. You know, you were all on this team.
Ivan: Okay. All right. And so that obviously makes it quite a lot smoother.
Sam: And, and look, I mean, even within the last few minutes, I just saw pass by
Sam: a new press release. she put out, like critiquing, you know,
Sam: a speech that Donald Trump just did.
Sam: That's like, you know, here Harris for president statement on Trump's strange
Sam: speech at TP USA, uh, Harris for president toilet paper USA.
Ivan: There's a convention turning.
Sam: Point Harris for.
Ivan: Oh, Harris for president sounded better as okay.
Sam: Spokesman released the following statement tonight. Tonight,
Sam: Donald Trump couldn't pronounce words, insulted the faith of Jewish and Catholic Americans,
Sam: lied about the election again, lied about other stuff, bragged about repealing
Sam: Roe, proposed cutting billions in education funding, announced he would appoint
Sam: more extremist judges, revealed he planned to fill a second Trump term with
Sam: more criminals like himself,
Sam: attacked lawful voting, went on and on and on, and generally sounded like someone
Sam: you wouldn't want to sit near in a restaurant, let alone be president of the
Sam: United States. That was the statement.
Sam: You know, it sounds pretty good. And look, you know, single statements like
Sam: this aren't going to turn the direction of election.
Sam: But the fact that the campaign is on this stuff and putting out these kind of
Sam: aggressive responses nearly instantly after something happens,
Sam: this is just the difference in tone and energy that we talked about before.
Sam: This is just like, you can't like Joe Biden and his campaign.
Sam: And I know, like you said, a lot of the campaign infrastructure is the same,
Sam: but they weren't doing this kind of shit.
Sam: They were doing every once in a while. They tried, but it wasn't landing.
Sam: They tried every once in a while.
Sam: Meanwhile, Harris and her new campaign apparatus are far more aggressive.
Sam: She's being much more aggressive. She's leaning into all of this stuff.
Ivan: And well, but there's another thing here that I want to check that you you disagreed with me.
Ivan: OK, but but I I totally believe is also helping. Yes. Go for it, Harris. us.
Ivan: Well, the fact that because you advocated, oh, if he's leaving.
Sam: He should resign too. Yeah. I did say that on.
Ivan: The committee for Slack and I told you you're out of your mind.
Sam: Okay. All right. Because at this point, I think there's enough evidence that
Sam: you were right. Then I will admit I was wrong about that too. Go ahead.
Ivan: Because look, a campaign by itself is training enough And running this country,
Ivan: you know, is hard as well.
Ivan: There is a lot to do. It's very difficult to juggle both.
Ivan: And the fact that she could focus on the campaign pretty much exclusively. Okay. All right.
Ivan: And Joe and the cabinet could worry about all the other stuff makes it that
Ivan: she could be far more effective at actively campaigning out there and getting
Ivan: the message out. You really, you know.
Sam: I mean, what, what, what I, what I had said, which again, I admit I was wrong,
Sam: was that if he also resigned, he hands over the incumbency advantage.
Sam: He hands over, you know, the powers of the office and everything else that she
Sam: could use to influence things that the downsides are a everything you just mentioned,
Sam: but be also anything that goes wrong in the next six months,
Sam: she would immediately be blamed for.
Ivan: And now she's like, look, it doesn't matter.
Ivan: Anything goes good. I can take credit. And basically, if anything goes wrong, it wasn't me.
Sam: Exactly. So I think you're right. I think they...
Sam: Yes, Joe Biden was pushed, but in the end, I think he orchestrated all of this fucking perfectly.
Sam: This is the best possible way to have done this transition, which brings us
Sam: to the other part, which is the Republicans are absolutely flailing and have
Sam: no freaking idea how to deal with this.
Ivan: They're going. They're going. I mean, they're losing their minds.
Sam: I mean, they'll probably figure it out before November, but still,
Sam: right now, it's glorious to see.
Ivan: I don't know. I really don't know.
Ivan: Because, let's be clear, J.D. Vance was a terrible pick for VP.
Sam: Oh, people are already talking about, like, will Trump dump him before the election?
Sam: You know, what would be involved in that?
Ivan: I think it's very possible. I gotta be honest. I think it's very possible.
Ivan: I mean, the guy is a meme a minute. I mean, you've never seen it.
Sam: We talked about the couch thing. he had
Sam: also there's here the cat
Sam: woman thing that yes the couch thing
Sam: the cat woman thing he's picking fights with
Sam: jennifer aniston over the cat thing like right
Sam: you know okay you got any
Sam: more really popular celebrities you want a child childless women yeah he's he's
Sam: talking about how like you're you're the one of the problems with the democrats
Sam: is they're turning the party over to people without biological children and
Sam: leaving out stepchildren adoptions,
Sam: all of this kind of stuff, or,
Sam: and let alone the people who don't have children at all, which is a perfectly
Sam: valid choice, but he doesn't think so.
Ivan: No, he doesn't think so.
Sam: No, you know, but you got all that. And, and then also like he was heavily known
Sam: like in 2016 as a never Trumper.
Sam: and there's like a nice right there's a nice little quote of him talking about
Sam: how he's never trumper which of course someone has remixed into a song you know
Sam: it's like a little techno song he was.
Ivan: Like i mean did he say he was you know basically he was our hitler well.
Sam: He his exact statement was he wasn't sure if he was our hitler or something
Sam: else but but no he said well i.
Ivan: Mean what that's what that's the level of comparison no.
Sam: I know but But in the song, he talks about how he's a never-Trumper,
Sam: how he doesn't really like Trump, how whatever. And it's all over.
Sam: If you go into TikTok and start scrolling, you'll find this pretty damn quick.
Sam: Now, of course, I say that, but TikTok knows I like this stuff.
Sam: So, of course, it shows me more.
Sam: But the Kamala Harris stuff is all over the place. It's doing well.
Sam: But here's the thing. Fundamentally.
Sam: For nearly two years now, Donald Trump's case for the election has all been about Joe Biden.
Sam: Like it's all been Joe Biden's old. He's senile. He's this. He's that.
Ivan: Well, now who's the old senile bastard on the ballot?
Sam: Now he's the old senile one. He is now the oldest candidate ever to have been
Sam: nominated by their party.
Sam: Because, of course, Biden isn't being nominated by his party.
Sam: So Donald Trump is now the oldest ever nominated.
Sam: And of course, before the debate, we were talking about how Donald Trump himself
Sam: was increasingly incoherent at his events and stuff like that.
Sam: Now, we have yet to see a really big pickup in the media talking about that.
Sam: But Harris is bringing that in there in a way that Biden wasn't because Biden
Sam: couldn't. Biden couldn't start hitting Donald Trump about his age or how he
Sam: was confused or how he did because it would all bounce back on him.
Ivan: Kamala could completely just damn the torpedoes right now.
Ivan: Just hit him with everything on being a doddering old fool.
Sam: Yeah. He's old. He's confused. He doesn't know what he's doing and all of the
Sam: other things that are disastrous about him. He's a criminal.
Sam: You've got the whole, I'm a prosecutor. He's a felon thing going on.
Ivan: Oh, speaking of like shark batteries and other stuff or whatever,
Ivan: what is this thing now that I was seeing about J.D. Vance also about apparently
Ivan: his searches on sex with dolphins?
Sam: He had made a tweet promoting an article about a woman who had been molested by a dolphin,
Sam: but the words that were highlighted in the screenshot of the tweet or whatever
Sam: indicated that he had done a search on the terms woman dolphin.
Ivan: Dolphin.
Sam: Now it may have been that he had seen this article and was searching for it
Sam: to find the article that he, but you know, he was regardless,
Sam: he was spreading one of these articles about a dolphin molesting a woman in
Sam: the water, blah, blah, blah, which by the way, male dolphins are known to do, you know, I've heard.
Ivan: I've heard, I've heard something about this i can't say that yeah so much about the dolphin but.
Sam: Apparently like if if you're a woman or even a man and the male dolphin likes
Sam: you the male dolphin will try to rape you but you know.
Ivan: Oh that's that's that's that's great well.
Sam: I guess it depends on the dolphin.
Ivan: You know i have swabbed with dolphins i i have to the dolphin did not try to
Ivan: rape you no no not nothing of the sort probably.
Sam: Good I mean I guess it doesn't.
Ivan: Happen all the time I must admit I must admit I did not want to do it my wife
Ivan: was the one that wanted to do it and basically I got dragged into the water
Ivan: and doing this stupid dolphin swim thing which is really dumb.
Sam: So I take it you didn't enjoy it.
Ivan: Not particularly.
Sam: Maybe if you had had sex with the dolphin, you would feel different.
Ivan: I don't think that that would have helped.
Sam: Okay, good. Yeah. Let's move on from this topic.
Sam: I don't feel like we need to go further in this direction. Couches, dolphins.
Ivan: I mean, this is Vince. I don't know what the fuck else he's done.
Ivan: You know, the I mean, I mean, J.D.
Ivan: Vance is like is a just a machine of generating content. Yes.
Sam: Well, yeah. And also not not just all this stuff that he's screwing up,
Sam: but I've seen a lot of commentary as well that he just sucks as like a speaker and a campaigner.
Sam: He's like boring and people don't.
Ivan: And I have seen him speak. It's been utterly boring as all hell.
Ivan: And oh, by the way, here's another problem that he created with this, too.
Ivan: Well, you see, the Republicans are kind of fucking like really,
Ivan: I don't know if you've noticed this, Sam, but the GOP is filled with a lot of racist people.
Sam: Oh, yes. Yeah.
Ivan: I don't know if you've noticed. Have you noticed this?
Sam: I've noticed that. And the sexists. And J.D. Vance is.
Ivan: And the sexists.
Sam: Both.
Ivan: Both. Wife. And, you know, J.D. Vance is a woman.
Sam: No, no. I was saying he's both racist and sexist, but yeah.
Sam: Oh, okay. But you can mention his wife is, of course, of Indian descent.
Ivan: His wife is of Indian descent. And oh my God.
Ivan: I mean, there has been this ridiculous amount of racist vitriol directed at,
Ivan: I'm not voting for this guy that's married to this Indian woman. Right.
Ivan: Lovely bunch of people. These people are, I mean, it's like every time, I mean.
Sam: Well, and this goes back to the Trump campaign's general approach to Kamala
Sam: Harris so far, and not just the Trump campaign, but Republicans in general,
Sam: they've been doing this, like she's a DEI hire, DEI hire thing as well, you know?
Sam: And as, as someone pointed out, like that's not on the one hand,
Sam: it's, it's like the code word for the N word because they can't say the N word.
Sam: They're saying DEI higher.
Ivan: Basically that's what they're... But also I don't know why you're saying they
Ivan: can't. I'm surprised that they're not straight out saying that word. Can I be honest?
Ivan: Because of all the other shit they said, I mean, come on. Why aren't they saying it? I'm surprised.
Sam: But also it's more than that.
Sam: The whole implication is that she's inherently unqualified.
Ivan: Unqualified, yes.
Sam: And that she's brought... Meanwhile, like she's got a hell of a lot more experience
Sam: than Vance or that Trump had.
Ivan: I have a lot. Yeah.
Sam: I mean, Jesus, she's got all the normal things that you would tick off as like
Sam: you would want in the experience of a president.
Sam: She was a prosecutor. She was a Senator. She was a vice president.
Sam: What else do you fucking want? I mean, that's, this is a typical resume for a president. Yeah.
Sam: And she did well at all of those jobs, you know, and the whole implication that because,
Sam: she is not a white male, she's a DEI hire and was brought on board for,
Sam: and isn't really qualified is just inherently racist, like right off the bat.
Sam: And, and, and this is the, like right now, the attacks that they're coming up
Sam: with for For Kamala, you got the racism and you got the sexism,
Sam: and that's been like 80% of it.
Sam: And then you've got random other shit they're trying.
Sam: Like someone was digging up a clip about her trying marijuana.
Sam: Like we got over that in the Clinton administration.
Ivan: Yeah, I thought, yeah, exactly. I mean, what the hell? Really?
Ivan: This is what we're bringing up. I mean, what the hell?
Sam: And, you know, they're, they're, they're struggling on the one hand.
Sam: They want to, you know, in the primaries when she ran for president,
Sam: you know, back in 2019, she had the issue with the left wing being like Kamala
Sam: is a cop and she's a prosecutor and why do you want that?
Sam: And like, blah, blah, blah. Now she's using that for her advantage.
Sam: But at the same time, the Republicans want to figure out like a way to get in on that.
Sam: Like she prosecuted some people she shouldn't have, and maybe she didn't prosecute
Sam: some people. But they haven't found attacks that are hitting.
Sam: They haven't found attacks that are hitting yet, even within their core audience.
Sam: I mean, I guess in the end, you know, the racism and sexism is going to appeal
Sam: to a big core of Republicans. It just is.
Sam: But in order to get those people in the middle that will decide the election,
Sam: they need something else.
Sam: And they haven't found it yet.
Ivan: You do? So, you know, so that's not a winning ticket. I see. Okay. Well.
Sam: Oh, and my wife is reminding me because I've messed up repeatedly. Kamala.
Sam: Kamala. Kamala. And I do sometimes, when I'm thinking about it, I get it right.
Sam: But when I'm talking fast, I mess it up all the time.
Sam: So I apologize for that. We deserve to get the name right.
Ivan: Of drugs by the way because before i forget i don't
Ivan: know i you know talking about people around this campaign the
Ivan: other day i i shared a a video of
Ivan: uh donald trump jr okay and i swear
Ivan: to god if this guy is not snorting all
Ivan: the cocaine in south florida then i
Ivan: i there well somebody explained to me what the hell he's taken
Ivan: because he looked this guy looks looks just
Ivan: absolutely stoned beyond on belief
Ivan: okay so i don't
Ivan: i i don't know why you know why that is but these guys i mean well why that
Ivan: is i mean come on we found out that when ronnie jackson was the was the doctor
Ivan: over there apparently i mean he was just handing out drugs like it was like
Ivan: you know like there were there were candy so another another thing since so
Ivan: i guess they're going very well another.
Sam: Thing since Since we were mentioning her name, one thing that was going a lot
Sam: of repetition online were people saying basically this, hey,
Sam: you call male politicians by their last name as a sign of respect.
Sam: You never call them by their first names. You should be calling her Harris.
Ivan: Yeah, I've been referring to her as Harris.
Sam: You should be referring to her as Harris, not Kamala. But here's a couple of things.
Sam: And I've seen a number of people, you know, basically say, okay, no.
Sam: And the reasons why no are because one, that sounds good in general,
Sam: but they're, you know, do we call them Sanders or do we call them Bernie?
Sam: We've said Joe a lot.
Ivan: I guess Bernie, we called him Bernie.
Sam: We've said Joe a lot there.
Ivan: But we usually call him Biden.
Sam: We do. We do call him Biden. But also, so first of all, it's not a universal rule at all.
Sam: There are some politicians who go by their first name, some that go by their
Sam: last name, some that do the initial thing.
Sam: Like we got AOC going on and RFK for that matter.
Sam: You know, we've got a lot of, you know, and one big.
Ivan: Another fucking drug and drug.
Sam: Oh, quick tangent, by the way, even before this change, his numbers were indeed collapsing.
Sam: Like even before this change, like if you go back a few months,
Sam: he would, you know, his average polling was around 10% in state level polls.
Ivan: Hey, the more you know of the more you hate.
Sam: And, and I'd say the average, like there's still some, I say average,
Sam: that means there's some higher, some lower.
Sam: I'd say his average has dropped to more like 5% now.
Sam: Like, you know, yeah, you occasionally see one at seven or eight,
Sam: but there are a lot of twos and threes as well.
Sam: And you very rarely now see a number over 10 for Kennedy.
Sam: So his numbers are collapsing. And I think it's collapsed even more when,
Sam: when, after the Harris change, but of course you distracted me with that.
Sam: What was I going to say before that?
Sam: Oh, the names, the names. The other thing is the preference on the names.
Sam: Guess what? A lot of that has to do with what does the candidate themselves
Sam: prefer and what do they push?
Ivan: So what is she like?
Sam: I don't know.
Ivan: I haven't figured it out because I'm referring to her both.
Sam: In 2019, her campaign bus had Kamala in big letters all over it. You know, she.
Ivan: The Kamala Express.
Sam: The Kamala Express. She uses her first name in lots of things.
Sam: She's branded herself that way.
Sam: She uses Harris too, obviously, but she, she has not shown any aversion to being
Sam: called Kamala or Kamala Kamala. I see. I did it again. I did it wrong.
Sam: Kamala. She has so no aversion to that. She had an ad in 2019.
Ivan: I'll stick to Harris because I, I, I, I do both.
Sam: I do both. And I, I had.
Ivan: Well, I'm sorry. Well, I don't want to keep screwing up the other ones. I'll also, right.
Sam: Right. I mean, I had been trying to do Harris more than Kamala, but you know.
Sam: I will do both. I mean, cause it's clear she's fine with both and she uses both
Sam: in her branding and her campaign in everything.
Sam: Both are there sometimes one, sometimes the other, sometimes both, you know? So, so yeah.
Sam: So anyway, let's see, what have we not hit Yvonne?
Sam: We talked about Biden. Now we talked about Biden endorsing Harris. Oh, VP.
Sam: We have not talked about the Kamala of veep veep
Sam: stakes so apparently at
Sam: the moment they're vetting about 12 people there's a
Sam: lot of speculation on who's the front runners the you
Sam: know i on the curmudgeon's corner slack i'd never mentioned it on the show itself
Sam: but on the curmudgeon's corner slack like weeks ago i had said a brilliant choice
Sam: would be aoc a very risky choice but brilliant because it would unify the democrats
Sam: blah blah blah in such a way but it would be risky because it would all also
Sam: alienate a bunch of moderates,
Sam: but the safe, and I don't think she's going to go there.
Sam: I I'm not predicting that at all. I think it would be a very interesting choice,
Sam: but I don't think she's going to go there.
Sam: And also she's very young. She will only become eligible to even be in that
Sam: spot in like October or something.
Sam: She's just going to turn 35, but the safe choices are white male straight governors,
Sam: You know, so like the people who've been talking or, or, or senators or senators,
Sam: the people who've been talked about the most and basically almost everybody
Sam: who's been mentioned is white male.
Sam: You've got the, uh.
Ivan: Well, you had, uh, what's her name? Not, not Whitmer. Well, they also mentioned, uh, Whitmer.
Sam: Yeah. You, you have, you have, you have some mention, you have some mention of Whitmer.
Sam: she's repeatedly said she's she doesn't want to do that
Sam: but she is one of the ones being vetted reportedly and she
Sam: but people keep asking you know
Sam: would two women be too much same thing
Sam: people have mentioned buddha judge which apparently you know kamala has kamala
Sam: has a really good relationship with pete buddha judge but people are asking
Sam: you know okay a woman and a gay guy would that be too much and like on the one
Sam: hand i want to say to all these fuck that if they're you know, maybe,
Sam: maybe double down on two women and that's the right thing to do this time.
Sam: Or just, you know, having the gay guy on the ticket would also send a very clear
Sam: message and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: But the safe choices are like, Hey, let's get Shapiro.
Sam: He's a white guy. He's a governor. He's in Pennsylvania, which is kind of a key state.
Sam: And he's, He's very popular there.
Sam: And right now, most paths to victory go through Pennsylvania.
Sam: So do him. And Whitmer's on their list for the same reason. She's a governor of a key state.
Sam: People are also talking about Kelly in Arizona, Senator Kelly in Arizona.
Sam: Yeah. Kelly's a key state and they like certain aspects of his personality.
Ivan: Kelly is a key state.
Sam: Well, sorry. Arizona is a key state.
Ivan: But, oh, but I was like, I don't know that we admit them to the union before
Ivan: Puerto Rico and DC. I mean, what the hell?
Sam: But the thing with him is like, yeah, Arizona cool, but you can win without Arizona.
Sam: It's Like what states do you think they will help in? Then Shapiro's probably,
Sam: they're also talking about Cooper, who's the governor of North Carolina,
Sam: for the same reason, bring North Carolina back into play.
Sam: And then there's some, the oddballs. Apparently they're also vetting some general.
Sam: Yeah, I mentioned Buttigieg, they're vetting him too.
Sam: And all of this, the campaign has said they will announce the vice presidential choice by August 7th,
Sam: which is coming up really fast because they're still going to be doing that
Sam: virtual roll call to solidify all this stuff before that August 7th deadline,
Sam: which was all prompted by Ohio and their deadlines.
Sam: Now, Ohio has fixed that issue, but the Democrats are basically like,
Sam: we don't want to believe it.
Sam: We don't want to risk it because even if they've If theoretically fixed that
Sam: issue, you could see the Republicans doing lawsuits on it and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And we don't want any doubt. We want to get it done before the old deadline.
Sam: But anyway, we've got a bunch of candidates in play, potentially.
Sam: I kind of figure she'll go for, like, I feel like Shapiro is the front runner
Sam: because you need Pennsylvania.
Sam: He's popular in Pennsylvania.
Ivan: The only one that I thought that could be a wild card.
Sam: Wait, let me just say one more thing on Shapiro real quick. Also,
Sam: apparently Shapiro and Harris have known each other for like 15 years.
Sam: like they were both prosecutors at the same time
Sam: and have dealt with each other professionally and
Sam: have a long personal relationship going back a long time
Sam: i guess long long long i said long multiple times
Sam: but they've got a long-standing relationship and that makes a difference too
Sam: because like you know as numerous people have pointed out you know not only
Sam: are you picking somebody for the campaign but if you win you are picking somebody
Sam: to well replace you if something Something happens,
Sam: of course, but also someone who's
Sam: going to be in the room and a critical advisor for you for four years.
Sam: And, you know, cause these days, like ever since it used to be that vice presidents were just off,
Sam: you know, the whole quote about worth as much as a bucket of worms,
Sam: bucket of warm spit, you know, was the phrase that was used to describe the vice presidency.
Sam: presidency, but basically since, I don't know, Carter, they've actually given
Sam: the vice president responsibilities and included them in the process in a way
Sam: that really wasn't traditional before that.
Sam: And so now these days it's kind of assumed, I mean, any president could change
Sam: this, but it's kind of assumed that the vice president is there in the room,
Sam: part of the decision-making process, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Sam: So you want somebody you like for all that stuff.
Sam: So who's your dark horse that you wanted to mention?
Ivan: Well i was wondering i don't know if i have a
Ivan: dark horse specifically but i was wondering you know
Ivan: georgia if if we won again georgia georgia
Ivan: is a state with a good good number of troll votes but i just i don't know if
Ivan: there's anybody who could name from georgia that could maybe bring you know
Ivan: well what's her name that i mean i i don't know if there's somebody who could
Ivan: name that would balance the ticket you know in order to bring georgia into the into the mix.
Sam: I don't know. I think that's right. I don't think there is because it really
Sam: had the Democrats who have won in Georgia have done so by the skin of their
Sam: teeth. They're not like super, super popular.
Sam: And then, of course, we had the woman who ran whose name I'm blanking on.
Ivan: Stacey Abrams.
Sam: I think it is. But she's lost multiple times. She hasn't shown that she can bring that through.
Ivan: I was going to argue to bring back Mondale, but Mondale's dead.
Sam: Yeah. I don't, I'm not sure he would help.
Ivan: I wonder where he goes. Well, he's from Minnesota.
Sam: But I will say even without that, the polls on Harris that have happened in
Sam: Georgia since Biden's announcement, a different story before the announcement.
Sam: That's why I mentioned it because You know, I'm looking at it like a landmark poll, 1.4% Trump lead.
Sam: A Emerson poll, about 2.3.
Sam: There was a Redfield and Wilton poll with her down five.
Sam: But all of these have, all of this is pointing to Georgia being in contention again. Right.
Ivan: And that's the reason why I said it. And so I was like, shit,
Ivan: if we could get somebody, it could excite, you know, because Georgia, I mean, you know what?
Ivan: It would be nice if we could still take, you know, Pennsylvania and bring back Georgia.
Sam: Now, to be fair, right now, my average for Georgia for Biden was losing by 4.5%.
Sam: Make sure I got that right. Yeah, 4.5%. Trump by 4.5% against Biden.
Sam: Whereas for Harris, the average is now Trump by 5%. But again,
Sam: that 5% includes polls from before Biden dropped out.
Sam: And there's like a step change. Like after Biden dropped out,
Sam: the Harris versus Trump polls improved by several percent in Georgia.
Sam: And I don't like, it's weird, but like, because you're asking the same question.
Sam: The people before Biden dropped out were asking, well, what do you think about
Sam: a Harris versus Trump matchup? But this goes to show you there's a big difference
Sam: between asking Harris versus Trump as a hypothetical versus,
Sam: okay, yeah, she really is the candidate. Now, what do you think?
Ivan: No, I know. I know. I know. I know. By the way, I didn't, you know.
Ivan: I don't recall us talking about when Mondale died.
Sam: I don't think so.
Ivan: It was only like three years ago.
Sam: Yeah, I don't think we talked about it.
Ivan: We didn't talk about it. You know, Mondale died of natural causes in his sleep
Ivan: at home in Minnesota. He was 93.
Sam: I mean, shit.
Ivan: You know, pretty old. Okay, well, all right.
Ivan: He tried to run for president. Well, here's the reality.
Ivan: I mean, you know, sorry he passed away. Rest in peace. But the one thing is,
Ivan: well, he did, he didn't do very well when he ran for president.
Sam: No, no, he did not.
Ivan: He did. Yeah. He did probably about as bad as you can do ever.
Ivan: So that's not really helpful, I guess.
Sam: Right. So anyway, on vice presidents, I guess I'll, I'll predict, I'll predict Shapiro.
Sam: Are you going to make a prediction? I mean, this could go anyway.
Sam: So this is sort of a predict.
Ivan: Who do I predict? What are my options? We got Shapiro. We got Whitmer.
Sam: We got Kelly.
Ivan: We got Kelly. Well, who else do you think?
Sam: Buttigieg.
Ivan: Everybody got it.
Sam: We got some. Yeah. There was some general whose name I don't remember.
Sam: There were. You got Pritzker.
Sam: Pritzker's on the list. Who else?
Ivan: No, that makes no sense.
Sam: There are a few others. I mean, like I said, the reports are there a dozen being
Sam: looked at, but we've mentioned mention the names that come up the most all.
Ivan: All, all, all to pick somebody different from you just to pick a name. I'll go say Kelly.
Sam: Okay. It seems like those two names right now are the ones that are being talked
Sam: about the most Shapiro and Kelly.
Sam: Now she could go in a completely different direction. Hell, she might actually pick AOC.
Sam: Like I said, I don't think so, but like for all we know, but you know, you, you never know.
Sam: Like, you know, you're.
Sam: You know, given everything that's going on, I feel like she's going to go for a safe choice.
Sam: Like, you know, not like a, you know, a choice that everybody is immediately questioning.
Sam: And I think people would be immediately questioning AOC.
Sam: I think they'd be questioning Buttigieg. I think they'd be, you know,
Sam: a lot of these are ones that people would be immediately like, not so sure about that.
Sam: And was that a good choice and blah, blah, blah. Now, frankly,
Sam: I think all of these names that have been mentioned would probably be absolutely fine.
Sam: She's not considering like, you know, I don't think she'll do a J.D.
Sam: Vance type pick or or for that matter, you know, or Sarah Palin choice.
Ivan: Well, could we see? Well, could we see anybody who is that list that maybe has
Ivan: fucked the couch or written about it?
Ivan: Is that like a qualified criteria?
Sam: I should mention there are people encouraging her to go for a youth.
Ivan: The fuck account.
Sam: No, no. There, there are people encouraging Harris to go for a quote unquote
Sam: unity ticket by, by picking a Republican for the vice president slot.
Ivan: Oh fuck that shit.
Sam: Now they've talked about Romney and they've.
Ivan: Yeah, I heard about it. I didn't even say it earlier.
Sam: I, I, I, I think there's.
Ivan: You mean Liz, not, not Dick.
Sam: Liz, not Dick. Yes.
Ivan: Jesus. is crazy. I mean, he's still around and we could name,
Ivan: you know, we could make, name vice president again, but I don't think that's a good idea.
Sam: Yeah, I think he's older than Biden.
Ivan: And, and I mean, basically he is Darth Vader for real. I mean,
Ivan: he's got so many artificial things in him.
Sam: But yeah, no, I, I, she's not going to pick a fricking Republican for this.
Ivan: Like, no, we're not going to pick a fucking Republican. What are you at?
Sam: No. And I think, you know, part of the excitement around her on the democratic
Sam: side is actually that she's a little bit more liberal than Biden is,
Sam: you know, when she was, when she was running in 2019,
Sam: she was having trouble figuring out like, where do I slot myself in?
Sam: because I have to appeal to the progressives and the centrists.
Sam: And I'm not really, I'm a little bit, I'm left of Biden, but like right of people
Sam: like Sanders and Warren and those folks.
Sam: And I think she's actually in a nice slot right now.
Sam: And people are excited because she is more liberal than Biden because to a large
Sam: part of the democratic base, Biden was just a little bit too,
Sam: conservative is the wrong word, but a little bit too much about like the preservation
Sam: of the system and tradition and like, let's work with the Republicans and all this kind of stuff.
Sam: And they want someone who will, who will just fight and in ways that Joe Biden didn't necessarily.
Sam: Now, Joe Biden got a lot done with that technique, by the way,
Sam: like there were stuff passed that nobody thought he could pass and it was passed on a bipartisan basis.
Sam: But I think there's an appetite for fuck working with the Republicans.
Sam: Let's ram through whatever we can get done.
Sam: You know, and that kind of thing. But yeah, so I think she'll,
Sam: she doesn't want to screw, she certainly wouldn't screw that up by picking an actual Republican,
Sam: but I think she's going to be careful because while she's certainly not going
Sam: to mess that up by picking a Republican,
Sam: I think she's also not going to want to pick someone too centrist either because
Sam: she doesn't want to spoil the enthusiasm that she's built up over the last week as well.
Sam: And I think she, so she's got a tight rope to walk and she's going to have to figure that out.
Sam: Like one of the things that I've heard brought up about Shapiro is there's a
Sam: lot of concern about like, well, what is his position on the whole Israel Gaza thing?
Sam: And is he like a little bit too centrist for that and like too pro Israel when
Sam: there's a huge portion of the democratic party right now who wants to take a
Sam: step back from Israel and Harris is trying to find a midline in there.
Sam: And, you know, so who knows, but, and, and of course, like part of the vetting
Sam: they're doing, which is an accelerated process because they've only got like
Sam: a week and a half is, you know, the usual sort of things.
Sam: Do any of these people have skeletons in their closet? That would be a problem.
Sam: You know, what are the, the potential attacks against them and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: That's why these These vice presidents, you know, vice presidents usually get
Sam: this like massive vetting and digging into all their history and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And sometimes done better than other times.
Sam: But, you know, but all of these people who are on the list seriously are in,
Sam: in serious positions where they've been in the public eye for a while.
Sam: And so you kind of think like, wouldn't those things have come up already?
Sam: But you know, you never know. No, maybe not.
Ivan: So, you know, you mentioned Cheney. So you, you put me down a wild goose chase.
Ivan: I will say a couple of things about, okay.
Ivan: But one is that I would like them or about, no, no, about Dick.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: No, no, because Liz, you know, that's not going to help us. But I did think
Ivan: one way that Dick Cheney could help us.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: He could invite Trump to go hunting. That would be helpful.
Ivan: Okay. You know, so aside from that, can I, can I just say something that I.
Sam: You are, you are We're, of course, referring to when Dick Cheney shot his friend
Sam: in the face while they were hunting.
Ivan: It was on the back. It wasn't in the face. With a shotgun.
Sam: It was the head, though, right?
Ivan: Yeah, it was there in the head, but it was from behind. Yeah, with a shotgun.
Sam: It did not kill the guy. The guy recovered.
Ivan: It did not kill the guy, but he was severely injured.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Okay. But, you know, I was talking about that he's got more attachments than
Ivan: Darth Vader. I did remember that he had some thing like a motor or something put in his heart.
Ivan: But look, we've called this guy a heartless bastard.
Ivan: But listen to this. I did not realize this, okay?
Ivan: In early July 2010, Chaney was fitted with a left ventricular assist device
Ivan: to compensate for worsening congestive heart failure.
Ivan: The device pumped blood continuously through his body.
Ivan: The pump was centrifugal. As a result, he remained alive without a pulse for nearly 15 months.
Ivan: This son of a bitch actually walked around as been alive for a year and a half without having a pulse.
Ivan: Sam, I mean, the guy was alive for a year and a half without a pulse.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Oh, yeah, that's really insane. And then he got a heart transplant somehow.
Ivan: So, OK, so but but but yeah, but but yeah, the guy, you know,
Ivan: we've said many times the guy had no heart.
Ivan: Seriously. Holy shit. It's true. Right.
Sam: So I'm just going through the list. I think we hit everything.
Sam: Biden out. Biden endorses Harris.
Ivan: We hit everything.
Sam: The non-Harris contenders, the VP, the VP possibilities,
Sam: the Trump campaign reactions, the Democratic reactions, say Harris,
Sam: should Biden step down the instant mood change, whether this was actually good
Sam: timing, the disarmed and backfiring Republican attacks.
Sam: And finally, the couch thing and the couch. We covered everything.
Ivan: Yes, we covered.
Sam: So, yeah, I guess that means we're done.
Ivan: I think that means we're done. It's all new ballgame, Sam. which.
Sam: Which ball game is it i.
Ivan: Mean the campaign the camps that's a euphemism saying it's a whole new ball
Ivan: game it's a whole new thing it's
Ivan: not racquetball no not racquetball no no we're not playing no what what.
Sam: What's that that pickleball pickleball.
Ivan: Pickleball yeah that's you know i i got a friend of mine who who lost her job
Ivan: a couple of months ago thankfully their spouse works and that the other day
Ivan: i talked to her sounded very happy she said she's gotten really good at Pickleball right now.
Sam: There you go.
Ivan: And I'm like, Jesus, I need something like this. You know, I need my, I need my.
Sam: You need a whole new ball game.
Ivan: Yes, I do.
Ivan: I would really love it if my wife would make more, but I mean,
Ivan: I don't understand this thing about, you know, I, I, I gotta love that guy. The guy's a goof.
Ivan: I love this guy, by the way. Well, I, I need, you know, I, I,
Ivan: I need something like that. Oh, I want to be just a goofball.
Sam: I met him by the way.
Ivan: You know what? My grandfather was like that.
Sam: Dougie muff. He was at an event that my wife was at. So I, I didn't have a conversation
Sam: with him, but I think I might've shook, shook his hand or something. I don't know.
Ivan: Well, there you go. That's a hell of a lot more than I've done.
Sam: But anyway, yeah.
Sam: Along those lines, yeah. I am waiting for my wife to move up from state legislator
Sam: to something that actually pays money.
Sam: Well, I mean, it pays, but very little.
Ivan: It pays, but I know what you're saying.
Sam: I would like to be in the Doug M.
Sam: Moffitt situation where I just
Sam: go along to the events and sort of be supportive and that kind of stuff.
Sam: And sign me up.
Ivan: I mean, you know, all these people say, God, I don't want to ever worry about the woman in power.
Ivan: I'm like, oh, sign me up. You know, where the hell do I sign up for this?
Ivan: You know, I realized that my grandfather on my dad's side was like this because
Ivan: our grandmothers are the ones that really built up the business.
Ivan: I mean, he did some stuff, but she was the brains of the operation.
Ivan: He was really just there for like, I, he was just, you know, the guy, whatever.
Ivan: Yeah. You know, it's great. It's great job.
Sam: Yeah.
Sam: That, yeah. So I, I, I, I heartily encourage my wife to continue to pursue her
Sam: political career and whatever, wherever it takes her, uh,
Sam: into, uh, but of course the thing is like politics doesn't pay that much unless
Sam: you go the Menendez rate way. And I am not.
Ivan: No, no.
Sam: And I do not want my wife to do that.
Ivan: Listen a senator a u.s senator makes a decent buck you know for example you
Ivan: know it's not bad it's not bad you know it's a decent living yeah no but.
Sam: Then you gotta maintain the two houses and all that kind of stuff like you run in dc one yeah.
Ivan: But then you write a book and you write a you know yes like that's absolutely.
Sam: True that's absolutely true.
Ivan: That's the thing you write a book get some speaking or again.
Sam: You go the menendez route you know and then.
Ivan: You can make the big I don't really recommend the route of getting paid in gold
Ivan: bars and just stuffed envelopes with cash.
Sam: In order to influence your political actions.
Ivan: Yes, I highly discourage it.
Sam: You think the little downside of jail, that it's not worth it?
Ivan: It's not great. It's not good. It's not great. Right. Is that,
Ivan: you know, I, I will say, you know, for people I've spoken to,
Ivan: but experience is not, not enjoyable.
Sam: And so to be absolutely clear, I am not encouraging my wife to take that route.
Ivan: Correct.
Sam: Not that she would consider it anyway, but you know, yeah.
Sam: Anyway. Okay. We're let's stuff at the end, stuff at the end time,
Sam: go to curmudgeons, hyphen corner.com.
Sam: You will find there all the ways to contact us, email facebook mastodon you
Sam: will find our archives including transcripts for more recent episodes,
Sam: one thing you will not find there yet for
Sam: the last three weeks we've been live streaming on youtube as well i'll i'll
Sam: eventually add a link there i guess but you can uh go what is it it's youtube.com
Sam: slash at curmudgeons hyphen corner and you will find our youtube channel if you
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Sam: you'll get notifications when we go live.
Sam: Bell. Yes, yes. And, and also, yeah, I, I, when we go live, it's posting on
Sam: Mastodon on the Corregions Corner Mastodon account too. So you can follow there.
Sam: And of course the live streams stay there after the show is over.
Sam: So if you prefer watching unedited
Sam: video of us talking instead of audio podcast, you can check it out.
Sam: Anyway, that's all the stuff there, there except for the Patreon that is also
Sam: linked from curmudgeons-corner.com.
Sam: And on that, you can give us money.
Sam: And at various levels, we will send you a postcard. We'll send you a mug.
Sam: We will mention you on the show.
Sam: We will ring that bell that Yvonne just did and all of that sort of fun stuff.
Sam: And importantly, at $2 a month or more,
Sam: or if you just ask us, we will
Sam: invite you to the to curmudgeon's corner slack where yvonne and i and
Sam: a bunch of listeners are chatting throughout the week and sharing links talking
Sam: about the news there was quite a bit of activity on the slack this week about
Sam: all the all the politics stuff going on but yvonne do you have a highlight from
Sam: the slack that you'd want to share that would encourage people to join us there.
Ivan: Well this week you know we had that crowd crowd strike out.
Sam: Yeah we talked about that last we.
Ivan: Talked about that last week, but this week, CrowdStrike, you know,
Ivan: trying to mend fences with people, you know, as, you know, the company with a heart.
Ivan: CrowdStrike offers, you know, there's a TechCrunch article where CrowdStrike
Ivan: is offering, offers a $10 apology gift card to say sorry for the outage.
Ivan: And several people who received the CrowdStrike offer found that the gift card didn't work.
Sam: Nice.
Ivan: While others got an error saying the voucher had been canceled.
Ivan: Way to go, CrowdStrike. Great job.
Sam: Yes and that's all that's finally all all subsided right like delta was the
Sam: last one that was having problems and they all caught up they.
Ivan: They've been able to get finally all back in order.
Sam: Yeah and most of that was catching up i have heard.
Ivan: There's a whole bunch of straggler.
Sam: Yeah computers.
Ivan: Like in places but nothing.
Sam: That has nothing with a big impact significant.
Ivan: Impact Right now.
Sam: Okay. And I guess we're done.
Sam: Are we done for we're, we're, we're under two hours for once.
Sam: We hadn't, we haven't managed that in a few weeks, so we've, we've done good.
Ivan: Right. Good. Good. Great. Wonderful.
Sam: Right. Yes. Anyway, I, I, I'm confused and bewildered.
Ivan: Any other adjectives that we want to throw?
Sam: Confused, bewildered.
Ivan: That's the Biden-esque. Biden-esque.
Sam: Biden-esque. anyway we're done here uh thanks everybody for joining us have a great week,
Sam: I don't, we'll see what happens next week.
Sam: You know, it's, it's.
Ivan: I mean, for all we know.
Sam: We said it was going to be a roller coaster this year. Yvonne,
Sam: we, you know, we may not have gotten this.
Ivan: We have not. I mean, I've realized right now that my prediction for president is.
Sam: Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean, I mean.
Ivan: I've got no way of my, my prediction right now has no way of happening.
Sam: I think you're the only one. Yeah, I think since I actually predicted Trump
Sam: would win, I got who the Democratic nominee would be wrong, obviously.
Ivan: Yeah, I got that wrong. Yeah, I got that wrong. And I predicted somebody that
Ivan: is not on the ballot anymore.
Sam: Yes not gonna be so the we we weren't
Sam: great on the specifics but we did predict that
Sam: this year would be a roller coaster and i think i don't that
Sam: what we did i don't know i don't i don't know if we said that in the show it's
Sam: in the prediction show itself but we we did say sometime that this year would
Sam: be a roller coaster and it certainly has been so far and i think it's gonna
Sam: it hasn't disappointed i think it's i think it's gonna be chaotic the rest of
Sam: the year too so So we'll see how it goes.
Sam: Anyway, I was starting to say,
Sam: stay safe, have a good week, and we'll talk to you next time. Goodbye.
Ivan: Bye.
Sam: Okay. Thank you, Mr. Bo. I'm hitting stop.
Ivan: All right.
Sam: Do, do, do. Do, do, do. Do, do, do.
Sam: Do, do, do. Hey, this is Sam. I just finished editing the show,
Sam: and I have a question for you that I forgot to put in the show.
Sam: Last week, I asked for feedback because I edited the show a little bit differently,
Sam: and I said at the end of the show, hey, let me know basically how I did.
Sam: I got no feedback whatsoever.
Sam: So I'm going to ask again, I'm asking two questions.
Sam: A, did you notice any difference whatsoever on what the show sounded like or how the show sounded?
Sam: You know what I mean? Did you notice any difference at all?
Sam: And B, if you did notice a difference, was it better or worse than before?
Sam: I'm basically trying to decide whether I continue to do things the way I have
Sam: the last two weeks or whether I go back to what I have done before.
Sam: And so I'm soliciting feedback to like, you know, the audience here,
Sam: like, does it make any difference?
Sam: And I guess if I hear nothing from anybody that, you know, either it makes no
Sam: difference or you just don't care.
Sam: So I'll just do whatever.
Sam: But I would love to hear from you. Like, did you notice a difference?
Sam: And if you did notice a difference, is it better or worse?
Sam: Because I'd like to do what people like, but, and I'm very carefully not saying
Sam: what I did differently because I don't want to bias what you think, but let me know.
Sam: I'd love the feedback. Of course, very few people make it this far in the show, so who knows?
Sam: Even our loyal listeners often skip the last couple minutes because it's like,
Sam: okay, you're giving the regular info at the end of the show,
Sam: and I've heard this a thousand times before.
Sam: But anyway, if you do hear this, let me know.
Sam: I may ask one more time on the show, maybe at the beginning of the show instead of the end. I don't know.
Sam: Anyway, bye for real.