Sam: Well you seem uh dressed.
Ivan: Up or is that like you just haven't done laundry.
Sam: Well remember i need i i only had button-down shirts left and i needed uh so oh.
Ivan: So you didn't do laundry so now you are down to the button does.
Sam: I i started i started laundry but the stuff's in the dryer right now so and
Sam: like i i was gonna finish the laundry but then this happened and so i'm wearing
Sam: shorts and a button down shirt. It's just nice.
Ivan: Nice.
Sam: Okay. Let me, let me kick this off. Okay.
Sam: So, well, there's a whole show recorded that Yvonne and I did Friday evening
Sam: us time, but then Saturday afternoon us time, Donald Trump got shot.
Sam: So we are recording a, uh, an addendum, I guess that we're putting at the beginning of the show here.
Sam: And then we'll, we'll play the show we had recorded after this
Sam: it was already a long show this is going to be longer but i
Sam: i think we're only gonna i don't know i i won't say how long we'll go we'll
Sam: go whatever we need and we are still in sort of the uh it is about two utc on
Sam: sunday july 14th about what has it been four hours since this happened maybe
Sam: five it's been it's been a few hours.
Ivan: Yeah yeah and.
Sam: So we We are still in the realm where there's incomplete information.
Sam: We don't know everything.
Sam: Let me try to summarize what we know right now.
Sam: Basically, well, what was visible at the thing at the time was,
Sam: you know, Donald Trump was giving a speech. He was a couple minutes in.
Sam: All of a sudden, he grabs his ear and then falls to the ground or pulls down
Sam: to the ground, something like that. And then Secret Service swarms him.
Sam: A minute or so later, they pull him up and evacuate him.
Sam: He does a fist pump, but he's got blood on his face.
Sam: As we have learned more, it seems that there was a gunman who climbed up onto
Sam: the roof of a building that was right outside of the Secret Service perimeter for this event,
Sam: so it was not a roof that had been checked and occupied by Secret Service or anything like that.
Sam: And there, Donald Trump was grazed by a bullet.
Sam: The shooter was killed by secret service after he started shooting.
Sam: There was one sort of event attendee that was shot in the head and killed.
Sam: And I've seen mixed reports yet, whether there were one or two other attendees
Sam: injured who are in, you know, are, who are being hospitalized and treated for
Sam: injuries that are fairly serious.
Sam: I saw one report that one of at least one person was shot in the hand or arm.
Ivan: It's one or two. The last report I saw were two critically injured.
Sam: Yeah, I have. I've heard both one or two. Two was the thing I heard most recently
Sam: in terms of people who are injured but not dead at this point.
Sam: And I guess that's the high level.
Sam: I mean, we don't yet have identification of who the shooter is.
Sam: By the time you listen to this episode, maybe that will have happened.
Sam: I presume that's going to happen in the next few hours.
Sam: But as we're recording, we don't know that yet.
Ivan: You know, my prediction almost came true.
Sam: Which one?
Ivan: Which one?
Sam: You predicted heart attack. This isn't quite a heart attack.
Ivan: I didn't predict the method. He would die.
Sam: Oh, well, and let's be clear here, too.
Sam: His ear was grazed. We were an inch away from.
Ivan: I mean, it was like two inches, listen, two inches to the right and he was dead.
Sam: Yeah. Yes. And we would be having a, a different conversation right now.
Sam: If that had been the case, even as it is, you know, this is, yeah.
Sam: You know, in this particular scenario, you
Sam: have photographs of Donald Trump emerging
Sam: emerging triumphant from the assassination attempt and you know this is going
Sam: to be all over the rnc over the next week you've got a whole bunch of republicans
Sam: basically saying hey this is because of all the democratic rhetoric about donald
Sam: trump being a danger to democracy all this kind of stuff,
Sam: which you know i to some degree i understand right no you know i don't.
Ivan: No no no i don't because they have been threatening violence against.
Sam: Those that.
Ivan: Oppose them from day one. So, look, you can't go around and tell that you're
Ivan: going to round up all these people, that you're going to jail them,
Ivan: you're going to do what you have promised violence,
Ivan: okay, you've promised bloodshed, and then go and turn around and say,
Ivan: oh, you see, you guys, what are you doing?
Sam: Well, yeah, all I mean is that if if someone truly believes that Donald Trump
Sam: is an existential threat to American democracy, it is not a big leap to say, well, you.
Sam: By any means necessary, you have to fight that, you know?
Ivan: Okay. Look, here is the thing. Is Donald threat?
Ivan: Is he such a threat? Yes. Is that the right way to try to end this threat right now? No, no.
Sam: I think it makes it worse. Like it makes it worse.
Ivan: Yeah, it makes it worse. I mean, that was what I was like, damn it, man.
Ivan: I've said this repeatedly. Don't make this guy a martyr for God's sakes.
Sam: Yeah. And this scenario, you essentially make him a martyr without actually killing him.
Sam: And so later in the show that you're going to listen to, we talk about polls
Sam: and the potential effects of the RNC and all this kind of stuff.
Sam: This changes everything. That's all I'm saying.
Ivan: Oh, God. Come on. Look, look, look. Oh, come on.
Sam: Well, I don't mean permanently. I mean, I don't mean permanently.
Sam: I mean, the narrative over the next week is going to be dominated by this over.
Ivan: The next week. Look, listen, now I will say this. Another thing I said that was correct.
Ivan: I said that in two weeks something would happen and we completely forget about
Ivan: what the fuck happened at the debate. bait.
Sam: Yes. I think, yeah, the narrative has now shifted away from Joe Biden and his
Sam: issues, at least for the time being.
Sam: I think this is going to dominate for at least a week, maybe two.
Sam: I mean, obviously, if he was actually seriously injured, it would completely
Sam: upend everything. everything but even with this it's a couple weeks.
Ivan: Listen i i will say this at being serious right now that yes,
Ivan: You know, we have been talking about the escalating rhetoric to violence.
Ivan: I mean, we had J6. Now we've, you know, we've had the Pelosi attack. We've had this.
Sam: And honestly, I've been surprised there hasn't been more of this over the last
Sam: couple of years. I mean, there have been a few events.
Ivan: Well, I thought it could be more, but we've had, we've had, I mean,
Ivan: we had the Scalise attack.
Sam: We had, we had Nancy Pelosi. We had Scalise. We had, what's her name in Arizona?
Sam: I keep blanking on her name.
Ivan: Gabby Giffords.
Sam: Gabby Gifford. So we have had a number of things.
Sam: I'm just surprised there haven't been more given how much this is and and that there hasn't.
Ivan: But but look, I mean, this is this is at that level. Let me tell you something.
Ivan: I, you know, I was joking about you because you were saying,
Ivan: oh, is Trump going to get a boost from this?
Ivan: And I'm like joking. I'm like, oh, well, should there be a, you know,
Ivan: should we root for a Biden attempt on Biden? Biden.
Sam: Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope.
Ivan: I'm like, you know, if that's the way this works, I mean, I mean,
Ivan: you guys, that's what you're saying.
Ivan: Well, you know, you know, but, but, but the reality is, but,
Ivan: but more seriously, I'm worried that it is, that is going to,
Ivan: there is going to be a temp on Biden's life.
Sam: Oh, I think I was telling my daughter, Amy, she asked my thoughts on this like about an hour ago.
Sam: And I'm like, look, these things tend to like,
Sam: prompt more.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: You know, violence spurns violence. And so you're going to have,
Sam: you know, you already have a bunch of Republicans blaming Democrats for this, blaming Biden for this.
Sam: And, you know, there was.
Ivan: Already a Democrat, there was already a Republican basically saying that Biden ordered it.
Sam: Yes. No, there were a bunch of this stuff like this has been going around and
Sam: And to various levels of specificity.
Sam: But you're right. At least one said that.
Ivan: But those statements are so.
Sam: Inflammatory.
Ivan: Irresponsible. Yes.
Sam: And what you. I mean this is why you have spirals of violence.
Sam: And once you have one thing happen.
Sam: Then you're going to have two things. You're going to be like.
Sam: On one hand you're probably going to have people saying they want to take revenge
Sam: for this. Well they shot at Trump.
Sam: Now I need to shoot at Biden. Or maybe some other Democrats, right?
Sam: Like I know there are a lot of people worried about like people just taking
Sam: revenge on random Democrats,
Sam: like just, you know, for at whatever levels, not even necessarily even politicians,
Sam: just the guy down the street that you know is a Democrat, right? Right.
Sam: And so people are worried about that kind of stuff.
Sam: Hopefully it won't happen. But like, this is how once you have one violent act,
Sam: it's very easy to have another.
Sam: And then once you have that second one, it's very easy to have a third and things can spiral.
Sam: And so crossing fingers that everybody
Sam: sort of stays calm and that doesn't happen, but it's clearly a risk.
Sam: And so I wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised at all if there are more attempts
Sam: at something between now and the election.
Sam: Now, an important thing to point out is we don't hear about like this one.
Sam: We as actual global news, because it was very close to being successful, but like.
Sam: Secret Service is investigating threats every single fucking day for both of
Sam: these guys, you know, and for a bunch of other people, too.
Sam: It's just like the environment right now. I mean, you've heard journalists talk
Sam: about it that cover like politics that they get death threats all the time.
Sam: And some of them get investigated. Some of them don't. We've had,
Sam: you know, SCOTUS gets threats all the time, too.
Sam: Congressional leaders do. You mentioned like Nancy Pelosi's husband, but like anybody in.
Ivan: Well, and that guy was targeting Nancy.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah. And, and, you know, anybody in congressional leadership gets threats all the time.
Sam: It's like part of being in the business of politics above a certain level.
Sam: And that's unfortunate, but true. And like, luckily, most of the time it doesn't
Sam: actually lead to anything, but sometimes it does.
Sam: I think I think we would be like if
Sam: like if if it's bad
Sam: enough as it is if Donald Trump actually had been seriously
Sam: injured or killed I think things would
Sam: be so much worse I mean on the one hand it's like you'd
Sam: be like well he was an existential threat you sort of eliminated
Sam: the threat isn't that better no because of
Sam: the reaction that would happen after something like that happened there's no
Sam: way it would end up being positive it's just like that that's like it's like
Sam: textbook how do you start a cycle of violence you know so i don't know i.
Ivan: Mean look the president went and gave a brief statement answered a question regarding this.
Sam: Yeah very.
Ivan: Intelligently where he was like look he he said that he's got he's got his own
Ivan: opinions but he He doesn't have the facts and, you know, he's going to wait to get the facts and,
Ivan: But I mean, this is I as much as I may be making some jokes about this,
Ivan: I felt I felt this this really churned my stomach.
Ivan: I mean, this was just it's I don't care how much I dislike him. I wasn't this.
Ivan: This wasn't a a high five moment of any kind. I mean, you know, we would have been dead.
Ivan: I realize that I just that wouldn't that wouldn't have been just because I predicted
Ivan: it doesn't mean I'm going to be happy about it. Even if I know,
Ivan: I understand, you know, I just, I'm not, I'm not pro, I am not pro assassination.
Sam: Right. There's a big difference between like he drops dead of a heart attack
Sam: versus, you know, someone shoots him in the head, you know, in terms of everything
Sam: that would proceed from that.
Ivan: It's it, and it is because of what you said that, you know, this kind of like
Ivan: violent, violent escalation we've already had.
Ivan: a significant uptick in the political violence in
Ivan: this nation and this is not a
Ivan: good thing yeah no it's just not you know so you know the guy did apparently
Ivan: what i understood is he fired adam with an ar-15 i will say this i'm going to
Ivan: speculate that he may now want trump of assault weapons ban i.
Sam: I don't think so.
Ivan: Because because trump is no no no because trump is inconsistent consistent that way he.
Sam: Is inconsistent but i think that's something that he knows would.
Ivan: No no no but but remember trump is listen trump is selfish but.
Sam: Remember after vegas he was pushing all kinds of gun control stuff and then got shut down in a week.
Ivan: Yeah but but okay yeah yeah yeah but this time
Ivan: they shot him well yes remember that i
Ivan: i i think that i mean look if a positive well i would honestly if nothing else
Ivan: happens if we would come out and say we need an assault weapons ban i i would
Ivan: be like oh thank god because that will save a lot of lives i.
Sam: Think that's unlikely i think instead he's going to be all about the blame game.
Ivan: I i think it's um it's a so so it's i think it's unlikely he's.
Sam: Got he's gonna blame democrats he i he may end up like another thing that's
Sam: happening here I like I just saw like a map of like where the roof was that
Sam: the shooter was on relative to where the stage was.
Ivan: And honestly.
Sam: You look at that,
Sam: And really, they didn't cover that building?
Sam: It's like, what is going on there, right? There were also reports,
Sam: there was an interview of a witness by the BBC who was near that building who
Sam: says they saw the shooter crawling up onto that roof with a rifle and tried
Sam: to get the attention of the local police and the Secret Service.
Sam: And the local police were like, basically, I don't know, what are you talking
Sam: about? And that was a couple of minutes before the actual shooting.
Sam: So I think there's going to be a big look into what went on with presidential
Sam: security, because obviously there was a failure here or multiple failures here,
Sam: or this wouldn't have happened.
Sam: and and so and
Sam: i guarantee you of course they are
Sam: going to beef up that security from now through forever
Sam: at least through the election for for trump biden
Sam: kamala whoever trump's vp ends up being uh
Sam: perhaps others as well because you know
Sam: there's clearly a threat environment here
Sam: and clearly whatever they had in place for this was not adequate and it looks
Sam: like in this case it was sort of they had a perimeter but there were buildings
Sam: right outside the perimeter within range of rifles and well.
Ivan: The thing is that also i mean i'm surprised because there was,
Ivan: I mean, they were obviously covering roofs and looking at it.
Ivan: There was a sniper. That's the one that it seems, according to the reports, took out the shooter.
Sam: Yes, a sniper did. And what it looks like from, from, from what I understand
Sam: and from looking at this map as well, well, I can't tell exactly.
Sam: exactly it's one of these things where there was you know
Sam: a roof with a peak and this the
Sam: sniper and the secret service at the venue had
Sam: a view of one side of the roof but not the other and the other guy crawled up
Sam: to the top right and so just peaked out over the top but other pictures i've
Sam: seen look like it with the area he was on was a flat roof because there have
Sam: been pictures published of like the dead shooter on the roof after this yeah but you can tell the.
Ivan: The The roof is at a.
Sam: Slight incline.
Ivan: It's not a completely flat roof. You don't get a completely flat roof.
Ivan: The water won't go down. They're all always a little bit angled.
Sam: Yeah, yeah, yeah. But maybe not enough to hide a person, right? Right.
Ivan: It's angle, but not exactly.
Sam: Right, right.
Ivan: Not enough to hide the person.
Sam: But here's the thing, though. Everything that we are saying right now is within
Sam: a couple hours of this happening.
Sam: we will know a lot more you know tomorrow let alone in a week in terms of exactly
Sam: what went down here i'm sure we'll find out who the shooter was they'll dig
Sam: through his social media they'll get to his motivations like yeah.
Ivan: Because you know all the people say i mean we don't even know why i i mean for
Ivan: you know look i mean we have no idea i mean we can speculate because of.
Sam: What we He said.
Ivan: But we don't know. I mean, we just don't.
Ivan: I mean, what if he is crazy, even ultra right wing guy who thinks that he's
Ivan: just not going far enough?
Sam: Well, I saw at least one person speculate that, oh, maybe it's somebody who's
Sam: upset that they softened the abortion language in the platform,
Sam: blah, blah, blah. Who knows?
Sam: It's honestly like it could be that.
Sam: But if I had to bet right now, it would be someone on someone on the Democratic
Sam: side, someone on the left who does view donald trump as.
Ivan: Or it could be just somebody mentally ill for all we know well because we've
Ivan: got listen we speculate about all the damn assassination attempts for example
Ivan: i mean john hinkley he tried to kill reagan i mean i mean no rhyme or reason yeah it was john.
Sam: Hinkley wasn't political it was he was.
Ivan: Trying to impress.
Sam: Jody foster or whatever.
Ivan: Exactly so so who the hell knows what if this guy was trying to impress a girl
Ivan: i mean for all we know. Yeah.
Sam: Well, and that's the point is that right now we don't know.
Sam: We will, we will, we will know more soon, but as we are recording this right
Sam: now, there are still a lot of unknowns,
Sam: but, and obviously this is going to be very intensely looked into both in terms
Sam: of the shooter and their motives and how they got past security.
Sam: And did secret service do anything wrong did local police do everything anything
Sam: wrong you know all of this is going to happen and and that'll play out and in
Sam: the meantime you know the campaign continues and we uh we.
Ivan: Don't look this is have i don't know who knows what effect this will have i don't know look i i was.
Sam: Mentioning yeah i guess i'm guessing a sympathy bump for trump but we'll see but.
Ivan: But who knows I mean, I go and I'm like, look, Gerald Ford still lost the fucking
Ivan: election. They tried to kill him. They tried to kill him twice.
Sam: Well, let me be clear. I'm predicting a sympathy bump, but I'm predicting a
Sam: sympathy bump that'll last a few weeks, not something that will last through November.
Ivan: Oh, hell, I don't even think that I think by next week, you know,
Ivan: he'll start saying some crazy shit again and everybody will forget about this.
Sam: Well, I presume I will be shocked if the Republican National Convention does
Sam: not like fixate on this for like the entire length of the convention.
Sam: I mean, when Donald Trump comes up to speak, they're going to be like clips
Sam: of this and that picture of him with the bloodied,
Sam: but with an American flag behind
Sam: him as he's being escorted out that that that's going to be projected.
Sam: And he's going to be like, they tried to take me down and I'm not fighting. fighting you know.
Ivan: By the way they tried to assassinate for a lot like it was but 17 days apart
Ivan: sam right yeah 17 days apart all.
Sam: Right are you saying we should put a mark on our calendar 17 days from now to see what happens.
Ivan: Shit i mean i'm saying that you know i knew this year is going to be crazy but
Ivan: every damn every damn time it's just you know i mean what the hell it's just i I mean,
Ivan: now we're down to even including assassination attempts in the fucking election. God sakes.
Sam: Right. So anyway, I think we can wrap this up and let you guys go to the actual
Sam: show we recorded before this happened.
Sam: Because at this point, anything we say is pure speculation beyond the basics.
Sam: By the time we record next week's show, I'm sure we'll know a lot more about
Sam: what happened here. And we'll have the whole Republican national convention
Sam: behind us and probably other developments too.
Sam: Yvonne, like you said, like we're in crazy times now.
Ivan: Like, so what the hell, man? Just what the fucking hell. Just what the fucking hell.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: Every fucking day. What the fucking hell, man.
Sam: Okay. Well with that, we will say goodbye for now.
Sam: And in, in just a second, it you'll get the show that we recorded the day before
Sam: all this happened bye folks bye,
Sam: Hello, Yvonne.
Ivan: Hello.
Sam: Let me see here before we...
Sam: I'm trying to test live streaming, so we'll see how this goes.
Sam: Says, oh, you know, wait, wait. Oh, that's annoying.
Sam: Okay, wait a second. Try something. Setting.
Sam: Maybe we have to change this.
Sam: blah blah blah blah.
Ivan: Blah blah blah blah blah blah audio.
Sam: There we go now let's see if i can find it hold on i'm gonna stop that because
Sam: we don't need it and then i'm going to post in the slack just to see if anybody you don't mind right,
Sam: mind what testing doing a live stream i'm gonna like i know okay i was.
Ivan: Like i'm like i mean i i was i was making sure i mean i i understood your live
Ivan: stream i was just wondering i'm like that i that i miss a meeting i mean why
Ivan: why would i mind like the hell am i minding uh send me.
Sam: Okay okay usual usual like just go go get them into the thing bop right okay
Sam: here we go got that clear yeah very clear blah blah blah here we go,
Sam: Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, July 13th, 2024.
Sam: It's just after 2 UTC as we are starting to record. I'm Sam Minter,
Sam: Yvonne Boe is here again. Hello, Yvonne.
Ivan: Hi.
Sam: How you doing? You sound unenthusiastic, maybe a little tired. I don't know.
Ivan: I am tired.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: I don't know. I'm not super, I'm up a little bit, yeah. You know. Oh.
Sam: You've been traveling again?
Ivan: I was traveling all week. I was gone Monday through Thursday.
Ivan: And then some of my meetings got canceled, and I was trying to see if I could
Ivan: get on an earlier flight.
Ivan: But all the flights were, like, so full, they weren't even taking me on standby.
Ivan: I couldn't even standby on them. That's how full they were.
Sam: Gotcha.
Ivan: Because I am back at, like, maybe not top, like, top of, like,
Ivan: the elite status, but I'm pretty close.
Sam: Okay, right. You've fallen down a little bit from your previous highs.
Ivan: Yeah, because traveling to Asia made it easier.
Ivan: But I am near there still. I'm not that far off. Okay?
Sam: Mm-hmm.
Ivan: So I get priority if I want to change flights, I'm going to change it for free. Okay.
Ivan: And so I went into the thing and I went to look at it and all the flight,
Ivan: they wouldn't even take me as a standby.
Ivan: And I was like, shit to hell.
Ivan: It kept trying to tell me, yeah, you could change. Yeah, you could change your
Ivan: flight. You can fly tomorrow.
Ivan: Oh, I'll fly tomorrow. I want to fly earlier, not later.
Ivan: And then, so my flight was supposed to leave at eight 30 and then we left the
Ivan: gate sometime after nine 40.
Ivan: And I will say that I had the, I've had times that we've left the gate.
Ivan: We've had to go back to the gate, but never for the reason that we turned back yesterday.
Ivan: Okay. Okay, which was that all of a sudden the flight attendants come on the microphone and say,
Ivan: look, we're going to turn back to the gate because we have a major issue in
Ivan: the galley in first class.
Ivan: And oh, by the way, I was at a 737 max.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: So, you know, look, look, look me. I'm alive.
Sam: Good job.
Ivan: By the way, which I actually like that plane very much. It's very quiet. Okay.
Sam: As long as it remains in control.
Ivan: A lot of the brains is control. It's actually very, it is, it is a very comfortable plan.
Ivan: The engines are a lot quieter. It flies very well. I do like, but anyway.
Ivan: We're going to have to turn back to the gate because the caterers came and they
Ivan: opened the door to put in the catering up here in first class, but it was pouring rain.
Ivan: Usually they will have like a hood or something or whatever to cover this.
Ivan: Well, they didn't do that.
Ivan: So they said, well, our galley is completely full of water and we can't go like this.
Ivan: We're going to have to go back to the gate.
Ivan: And I'm like, look, I've never heard of this. I'm like, what the fuck are they talking about?
Ivan: I mean, how full of water can the first class galley be?
Ivan: And I think it was, I think as we reached the gate, the person in the window
Ivan: seat where I was sitting, and I did get an upgrade.
Ivan: So I was sitting in first class where the galley you were talking about.
Ivan: And so they got up to go to the bathroom and then I look at the floor up there
Ivan: and I see, holy shit, it's I've never seen the front of an aircraft that wet in my life.
Ivan: And it had apparently taken out almost every damn paper towel and stuff that
Ivan: they could have out of the bathroom or wherever.
Ivan: And it wasn't enough. They could not get this damn thing dry.
Ivan: And so we literally had to turn back to the gate to get some people with like
Ivan: some mops and towels and shit and come in and dry out the galley.
Sam: Beautiful.
Ivan: And so that meant, so that made that my flight, it was scheduled at 830 that
Ivan: already had departed late at 940, then wound up taking off sometime closer to 11.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And so I didn't make it home until sometime past two o'clock.
Ivan: And, uh, and I had, I mean, I did stay in bed until a little later.
Ivan: I, you know what I mean? A little later, like eight 40.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Something like that. But I had a very full day.
Ivan: And so I, I, you know, I'm a little bit tired.
Sam: So, so before, before we do our normal, but first, cause I, I unintentionally
Sam: got Yvonne started on travel again.
Ivan: Well, I had a wet galley, Sam.
Sam: I know.
Ivan: I had a wet, I mean, who the hell can you tell? Listen, I've been doing this for how long?
Ivan: I have never, ever had a flight delay that involved flooding.
Ivan: The galley being wet. Yes. Flooding.
Sam: Okay. Yes. So I will say like, this is not a me travel story,
Sam: but my wife right now, she had been attending a conference in Portland and her
Sam: next thing she had to go to is in,
Sam: Pasco, Washington, which is a small town in like Eastern Washington. Okay.
Sam: And she was going to go from one to the other via Amtrak. Okay.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: I mean, it seemed reasonable enough, but then her
Sam: her train like just was listed as something happened
Sam: all the times became tbd and
Sam: she waited a couple hours for like a it
Sam: was like i don't know an obstruction i don't know there was no explanation it
Sam: just like wasn't there and there was no eta anymore so she didn't know what
Sam: was going on so she had to like last minute reshuffle her plans cancel the train ticket and And instead,
Sam: she's flying from Portland to Seattle and Seattle to Pasco.
Ivan: That's a beautiful... You know, my wife is having to go...
Ivan: Well, not having to go. She signed up to go to an event that's in...
Ivan: some town that is three hours from Seattle, which she was saying,
Ivan: she was saying, Hey, well, I can see Sam.
Ivan: Well, no, you're not. It's your, your three plus hours from Seattle.
Sam: It's, it's just a short little jaunt. She can, you know, come on over.
Ivan: Yeah. So it was closer to Portland. Okay.
Sam: So, so it'd be four hours to us. Cause we're North of Seattle.
Ivan: Yeah, exactly. It would be four hours to you. Right.
Ivan: Basically. And that's, and I, and I think I did, I did point that out to her if I remember.
Ivan: Yes, it's three hours to Seattle plus one hour there. Yeah. So no,
Ivan: no, you're not, you're not, you're not even close.
Ivan: So I am flying her to, uh, in order to get to that town, you know,
Ivan: those towns are not very accessible. Not a lot of flights.
Ivan: I noticed, I mean, I had to basically, there was no flight there.
Ivan: I'm having to fly her to Portland and then get her a rental car and she's going to still
Ivan: have to drive two hours from, from Portland to that town on the coast and,
Ivan: you know, Washington state, like near the border with, uh,
Ivan: with Oregon,
Ivan: Oregon, right? Yeah. Oregon, right. Yeah.
Sam: Portland is in Oregon, unless you're talking about Portland, Maine.
Ivan: No, no. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not talking about the main one. No Oregon.
Ivan: So, yeah, I mean, it's, they're not very easily accessible. So yeah,
Ivan: that routing sounds, you know, like, yeah, what, what I'd expect is it's not,
Ivan: not very, not, not, not, not, not a lot of.
Ivan: Don't seem to be a lot of easier ways to get around.
Sam: Okay. So anyway, did you, did you have a real, but first, I mean,
Sam: you're, you're, you're, you're, but first are very often travel related anyway,
Sam: but you know, and, and just for everybody, we will hit the real news of the week.
Ivan: Yep.
Sam: Our usual pattern here. We talk about non newsy stuff for the first segment,
Sam: and then we do two segments of newsy stuff.
Sam: So what do you want to talk about? I got a movie again. I got a movie.
Ivan: You got a movie. movie why don't you go with a you know what let's switch it up.
Sam: You want me to go first yes okay what do you got
Sam: yeah there's some random non-movie stuff i could do but i figure i've gone a
Sam: couple weeks without movies so it's well i did a movie last week i did 2001
Sam: anyway the next movie in order for me is uh one that i watched february 3rd
Sam: race to which mountain so that's.
Ivan: A disney movie right.
Sam: That's a what movie it's.
Ivan: A disney movie.
Sam: Well the whole series is disney yeah but this is yeah
Sam: this is the one like all of the others and i have talked about the older ones
Sam: in the franchise on the show as i sort of watched through them like there was
Sam: the 1970s series and then there was a a remake in like the 90s or something
Sam: but anyway no this is the 2009 version
Sam: with dwayne the rock johnson in it and this is sort of oh yeah yeah.
Ivan: Yeah they had that i i remember seeing those ads and always thought it was so weird right yes.
Sam: Yeah i mean and here's the thing i i you know right away i'll say thumbs sideways sideways it's.
Ivan: Got dwayne johnson.
Sam: Yeah yeah okay yeah i.
Ivan: Mean i know he's very popular but you know i just almost every movie that i've
Ivan: watched him in i've been like.
Sam: Meh right well you know he he's he seems like a nice enough guy i guess and i'm.
Ivan: Not saying he's not i'm not saying he's an asshole no no no i'm just saying
Ivan: that from an acting point of view i'm like.
Sam: Whatever you know but right yeah.
Ivan: Basically yeah whatever but basically yeah.
Sam: Yeah so what's the right way to to put this just to get to point as thumb sideways
Sam: did i say that already thumb sideways yeah.
Ivan: Yes you started with the.
Sam: Thumb sideways so here's the thing this is sort of a semi but not really remake
Sam: of the 1970s version uh-huh.
Ivan: Yeah that's what i got that was the idea i got from it yeah.
Sam: It's sort of it it sort of takes the fundamental concept that there are two
Sam: kids that are really aliens and they have to get back to like their spaceship
Sam: and that's it that's like
Sam: all that's similar to the originals i mean and they have powers you know and it just.
Sam: I don't know. It was adequate. It was a couple hours.
Sam: It was like, okay, it's fine. It filled the time, you know, I watched it.
Sam: I wasn't unpleasant to watch, but at the same time, it seemed kind of,
Sam: it seemed kind of pointless, you know, it's, it's sort of like,
Sam: you know, they, they try because it was the rock.
Sam: It was, it was like more action adventure-y than the original,
Sam: you know, the original, original yeah the kids went through a little
Sam: adventure to try to get where they were going and whatever blah blah
Sam: blah but it was you know it was a low stakes kids disney
Sam: afternoon thing you know it was like for made for tv and i don't know maybe
Sam: the original was theatrical i don't know but anyway it was made for kids it
Sam: was low stakes blah blah blah and it was more about hey cute little kids with
Sam: powers than it was about an actual like adventure with drama and you're You're worried about them.
Sam: The, you know, and this is just sort of like, okay, some, some pointless car
Sam: chases, you know, the rock being the rock,
Sam: like there was a, there was a little romance where the rock met this scientist
Sam: at a planetarium for some reason that helped them.
Sam: Because of course, if you're like a scientist who works at a planetarium,
Sam: you know, all about aliens, you know, right.
Ivan: Of course.
Sam: Yes yeah and and so and.
Ivan: That makes sense.
Sam: You know and it feels like it
Sam: it sort of squeezed the charm out of the concept like
Sam: the original movie is cute it's charming there are these kids and they have
Sam: powers and they they it's sort of a sweet ending where they they find out that
Sam: they were they were left on earth to sort of be protected or whatever and then
Sam: they get to go go home to their real families or whatever.
Sam: And this just had none of that, like sort of sweet, cute, a mute emotional resonance.
Sam: And it was just sort of like.
Sam: Okay, you're running around having a little action movie and,
Sam: you know, running away from the bad guys who are trying to keep you from getting there or whatever.
Sam: And it is what it is. Again, I'm not giving it a thumbs down because I didn't,
Sam: I reserve thumbs down for the movies that I have a visceral negative reaction
Sam: to where I'm like, this movie is just horrible.
Sam: I kind of regret watching it ever. And this wasn't that it was just sort of
Sam: like, blah, it's like, like,
Sam: okay it was a movie it wasn't anything like super
Sam: worthwhile like and we're doing i was
Sam: doing it because i was completing all of the witch mountain stuff and
Sam: this was the most recent one but i think the last one
Sam: was also a remake of the original but it
Sam: was a much closer adaptation just redone 20
Sam: years later or 30 years later for whatever reason this
Sam: was like not even a remake because they changed so much it's just like they
Sam: took some of the high level conceptual elements and that's it and then tried
Sam: to modernize it and make it more actiony and blah blah blah and i just it didn't
Sam: work i don't think didn't work yeah yeah so.
Ivan: I mean what movies is the rocky i don't even you know the only one that i recall
Ivan: like for whatever reason and i don't like any of those movies.
Sam: Okay i guess i'm gonna i'm gonna click on his wikipedia page now yeah i mean.
Ivan: I was like I remember in the Fast and the Furious movies, and I don't,
Ivan: I remember, look, wait, okay, let me be clear.
Sam: And of course, he was a wrestler before that.
Ivan: Yeah, he was, now, let me be clear. I don't think I've watched any Fast and
Ivan: the Furious movie that he has been in.
Ivan: The only Fast and the Furious movie that I watched was the first one.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: I have not watched, I don't, I think maybe I've watched some minutes of one of the first sequels.
Ivan: I have not I mean there have been so many of those movies I haven't watched
Ivan: any past that first maybe some minutes of the sequels I see that there is a nine nine,
Ivan: movies nine,
Ivan: jeez in.
Sam: The fast and furious uh franchise.
Ivan: Holy oh no 10 what am i talking about there was fast x the last one it's all
Ivan: let me see so he was in where the hell producer screenwriters,
Ivan: i know so.
Sam: Like look his his movie list is fairly long.
Ivan: Yeah his.
Sam: His first one on his filmography was The Mummy Returns in 2001.
Sam: That was apparently his first movie.
Ivan: Well, I definitely didn't watch that. My wife made me watch,
Ivan: I think, a good chunks of the first Mummy movie. There was no fucking way.
Sam: Well, and this is the modern Mummy movies, which were, of course,
Sam: a remake of the really old classic Mummy movies from, like, many decades ago.
Ivan: Yeah, and I hated Mummy movies. Yeah, I didn't see that.
Sam: Then Longshot, The Scorpion King, The Rundown, Walking Tall,
Sam: Be Cool, Doom, Southland Tales, Gridiron Gang, The Game Plan,
Sam: Get Smart, then Race to Witch Mountain, the one I was just talking about.
Sam: Then a bunch of other stuff. I mean, he's known for, he's in the Moana movies.
Sam: He's the, what's his name? I've never actually seen Moana.
Sam: Well, okay.
Ivan: You haven't seen Moana?
Sam: I have not seen Moana.
Ivan: Okay. Hey, that movie is very good. And he was actually very good doing the
Ivan: voice of what he was doing in that movie.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: I'll give that a thumb. Brief review. Thumbs up to Moana.
Sam: Okay. Okay. And he was also in Jumanji or at least some of the Jumanji sequels.
Ivan: Oh, yeah.
Sam: Jumanji. Welcome to the jungle. And yeah.
Ivan: And so, yeah, I definitely I just looked up when he because all of a sudden he was.
Sam: He was Maui in Moana.
Ivan: Maui. He was Maui. Yeah, he did very good at that movie.
Sam: And Moana 2 that's coming out this year.
Ivan: Oh, shit, that's right. I forgot about that.
Ivan: So let's see. I definitely never saw him in any of the facet of furious movies.
Ivan: There's some reason I think I I've heard about this. Some people discussing this out.
Ivan: They brought him in as I mean, they had made like a fourth movie.
Ivan: They're going for number five. I mean, if you think about how ridiculous a French
Ivan: movie franchise is that has only existed since the year 2001 and they've made 10 movies.
Ivan: So basically, a movie every, what, almost like a little over two years,
Ivan: there's been a fucking movie for this?
Ivan: I mean, they've had people, and in that short span, they've had some of the main actors die.
Sam: Yes, I had heard that name.
Ivan: Okay. You know, but, yeah. And so they brought him in in like Fast Five.
Ivan: I think it may have been, I guess, because what's his name? Paul Walker died. Maybe.
Ivan: but but you know yeah i i i don't think i've ever watched them in any of the movies.
Sam: Okay so anyway.
Ivan: Thumb sideways.
Sam: For race to witch mountain that's.
Ivan: That's all i got sideways and that's all you got i don't know.
Sam: And that's for two it was a 2009 movie i think i probably said that but i'll
Sam: say it again thumb sideways race to witch mountain 2009 and i said everything
Sam: else i needed to say i guess so your turn yvonne.
Ivan: My turn so what happened this week i don't remember what happened this week.
Sam: We we do have a list you could look at of like there's there's some non newsy stuff on it.
Ivan: I did actually i did look at it but here is the one thing that i i will make
Ivan: an observation about something that happens to me every time i go to puerto
Ivan: rico okay oh i once Once again.
Sam: Travel-related, going back to that.
Ivan: Well, it's not about the travel itself. More about something interesting about Puerto Rico itself.
Sam: Okay. I've heard it's an island.
Ivan: Yes. Wow. Good call. Okay.
Ivan: So every time I rent a car and then I actually stop at this gas station that's
Ivan: on the way to the airport to fill the car back up before I return. Okay.
Ivan: It's just the most convenient thing is to get a car to move around in Puerto Rico.
Ivan: And so this gas station is actually owned. Funny enough, I've lived in this
Ivan: condo here in Boca Raton for 15, 16 years.
Ivan: And this guy that owned that gas station moved here right in a condo right by
Ivan: mine and lived there for about six or seven years.
Ivan: And that's a gas station I always stop all the time in Puerto Rico.
Ivan: And the freaking coincidence that this guy from Puerto Rico moved right across
Ivan: from me was just really, really hilarious.
Ivan: hilarious and i don't know if i told this but but one day
Ivan: i was at that gas station and i
Ivan: went to pump gas and all of a sudden i see on my
Ivan: phone where he's like saying hey what are
Ivan: you doing i'm like what the hell why is he
Ivan: texting me how the hell could he be to me now and
Ivan: i like he calls me up and i'm like what the hell you
Ivan: got cameras yes i do i just saw
Ivan: you i looked at him and i saw you like at
Ivan: the damn station laughing he lives
Ivan: in jacksonville for god's sakes of all places now it's so far and he's like
Ivan: yeah yeah yeah i just saw you walking to the damn i just saw you walk in and
Ivan: the reason he saw me walk in is because one thing that oddly i noticed in all
Ivan: puerto rico that they don't have that we have at all the gas stations here okay pay at the pump.
Sam: Wait they don't have that.
Ivan: No i i and i i don't understand why in the world you cannot pay at the pump in puerto rico.
Sam: Wow like i am so used to that at this point.
Ivan: I believe me so am i i.
Sam: Mean i can't i like at this point like if if i come up to a gas station and
Sam: for whatever reason they have I have the little sign up that says you can't pay at the pump.
Sam: I leave and find a different gas station.
Ivan: Listen, I've done that myself. Okay. You know, I mean, I, I have, okay.
Ivan: But none of the, I mean, gas stations in Puerto Rico, they're not using pay at the pump.
Ivan: For some reason, I was explained that whoever is the main credit card processor
Ivan: that they use in Puerto Rico.
Ivan: That I have seen in most places has some pretty sophisticated little terminals and shit.
Sam: Okay. Yeah.
Ivan: They're not compliant and they can't use them at the fucking gas stations.
Ivan: And so I have not stopped at a gas station in Puerto Rico that has pay at the pump.
Ivan: And so this is a very weird experience every time.
Sam: And it's not like New Jersey where it's full serve either.
Ivan: No, no. I have to go.
Sam: So is New Jersey still full surf?
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: I know Oregon got rid of it a couple of years ago. They were the last two.
Ivan: No, New Jersey still. Yeah. No, New Jersey is still a holdout.
Ivan: So it's just the weirdest thing where I just have to go over there and I have
Ivan: to remember what the hell the damn pump number I'm on and go and give my credit
Ivan: card and a form of ID, by the way. Okay.
Ivan: And, you know, and I have to get my driver's license so they'll hold it while
Ivan: I fill up up the tank and then come back out and then, you know,
Ivan: then come back into the thing and then sign and get a receipt.
Ivan: Well, not sign, actually, just that is one thing, tap, pay, whatever,
Ivan: with a turnable on it. It happens, but that is the one thing.
Ivan: You cannot, for whatever the hell or damn reason, pay at the damn pump.
Ivan: And I mean, you know, it's not like, well, no, I mean,
Ivan: we've got this in Puerto Rico, almost any
Ivan: technology that we've got here or anything whatever you
Ivan: get there i mean you know we've got this you know 5g coverage
Ivan: you know it's pretty good everywhere like it's
Ivan: not because of cell phone signals or data connectivity or or or some banking
Ivan: thing whatever i mean they got all the same shit but no pay the pump and so
Ivan: that that has just always been like one of these things that i have to that
Ivan: that i do that always like Like when I go there,
Ivan: it just always strikes me as the weirdest thing that I have to do is to lock up.
Ivan: pay at a pay inside a the store.
Sam: Yeah no i i don't like that anything where
Sam: i have to interact with a human i mean screw that
Sam: i i i don't want to i don't want to see anybody i don't want to talk to anybody
Sam: like no like let me interact with the robot pump or whatever and it's enough
Sam: that i have to push some buttons you know they don't don't make me talk to somebody
Sam: that's just wrong and Now, however,
Sam: my exception, my exception still is I resent self-checkout at the grocery store.
Sam: I will always go to a human aisle, like if I have the choice.
Sam: And a couple of times lately, I've gone to my grocery store and none of the
Sam: human aisles have people.
Sam: And the only choice is self-checkout. And I, I have checked out,
Sam: but I've been sorely tempted to just leave my cart and go.
Sam: Like, I just, I hate the self-checkout.
Ivan: I mean i i will go to i will go
Ivan: to self-checkout if i've got like one or two items okay you
Ivan: know like i grabbed a piece of you know i grabbed a pack of cheese
Ivan: or a little thing of milk okay fine i'll do that but if i got more than you
Ivan: know a couple like that the hell with that the hell am i doing i don't want
Ivan: to be i don't want to be doing all this work it's it's a pain in my ass yeah
Ivan: exactly you know and we're not very efficient at it you know i mean one thing Well.
Sam: I saw an article just in the last couple of weeks how there are some grocery
Sam: chains that are pulling back on the self-checkout because of the theft rate.
Ivan: Oh, I can imagine. It's got to be through the roof.
Sam: There are just so many people who are swiping their groceries and then they'll
Sam: be like, oh, well, this pack of cheese I can just put straight in the bag.
Ivan: Back in the car. Exactly. Yeah, it's just ridiculous. Ridiculous.
Ivan: I mean, I don't think it's that. I mean, it's not.
Ivan: I mean, if it's an order more than like two or three items,
Ivan: People are very slow at it. You know, they're not, they're not cranking through that.
Ivan: I mean, I remember when I, when I did check out on our store,
Ivan: you know, I mean, I'd be cranking through items like boom, boom, boom, boom, boom.
Ivan: I mean, I'm, you know, you give me like 10, 15 items and I knocked that out
Ivan: and, you know, less than 30 seconds. I mean, you know, boom, like buy a price.
Sam: Well, and, and that's pretty good. Cause if you remember like back then when
Sam: you were like young, it must've been those, those big cash registers with all
Sam: the buttons and the crank and the like.
Ivan: With the buttons yeah well we
Ivan: had the list i told you we had the crank one okay the crank one was a little
Ivan: bit slower the digital one i could do faster but listen believe me i actually
Ivan: got very fast with that listen the push button crank one i was i was i was pretty fast with that thing i.
Sam: Was actually thinking i was kidding and that would be too old for you but no.
Ivan: No no no at
Ivan: my at grandma's store we had
Ivan: the button button push crank push crank
Ivan: one you had the rows for the hundreds the ten yeah yeah
Ivan: the ones and i and i actually got
Ivan: pretty fast you know i'll go you know it's like two
Ivan: you know 275 was like you know you you
Ivan: hit the you you press the two dollar thing you press the 71 you have the five
Ivan: crank two you know whatever i actually got i i tell you what i was pretty quick
Ivan: i was pretty quick with that damn thing okay so yeah so so i yes sam i actually i used a you're.
Sam: You're older than i thought.
Ivan: Fuck you know i i you know yes i i used the crank cash register machine.
Ivan: Yes, I did. I will say that.
Ivan: And we had, and we also had, and I used a fully mechanical typewriter.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: Not not electric it was fully mechanical that thing
Ivan: was loud like i mean holy smokes
Ivan: i i mean if you see these pictures of like old offices you know from like years
Ivan: where all these people had all these mechanical typewriters if you've seen like
Ivan: videos where everybody's like thwacking at those at those keys like non-stop
Ivan: you imagine a whole room with a couple of hundred of those machines going on at the.
Sam: Same time yep i.
Ivan: Mean that's gotta be like i mean holy smokes what to put like earmuffs or something
Ivan: i mean we're gonna think only smoke so anyway self-checkout.
Sam: Right good.
Ivan: Sometimes bad sometimes good at the pump not good at the supermarket.
Sam: Yes exactly and yeah and any other store but yeah i i just i that that's just
Sam: one of the areas where i actually do
Sam: appreciate the human doing it for me like and
Sam: i don't know and just these alternate like
Sam: you know a certain company who shall not be named
Sam: has experimented with just walk out stuff where they track you the whole time
Sam: you're there and that's okay i still don't feel like entirely comfortable with
Sam: it it just feels weird but but it's not bad like you just grab the stuff and
Sam: walk out after scanning yourself in i.
Ivan: I did go yeah i i did there there is uh at the train station over here they have one of those.
Sam: I always.
Ivan: Think it's weird.
Sam: Yeah i.
Ivan: I would i actually prefer that somebody go you know.
Sam: You know i bring me out i haven't done it
Sam: as much there's one only like less than
Sam: half a mile from my house and i've gone there occasionally from it's just a
Sam: convenience store it's not like a full grocery store it's just a convenience
Sam: store and it's okay but it's like it's not discernibly better from a regular
Sam: convenience store it's just another convenience store it's not like something it's.
Ivan: Just another convenience store.
Sam: It's nothing special and and actually in some cases the selection isn't quite
Sam: as good as the as the other convenience store across the street so it's it's
Sam: it's fine it's all right okay shall we all right we've beaten.
Ivan: This to death yes let's go.
Sam: What have we beaten to death like we like everything we like beating things to death right listen.
Ivan: Everybody has been very good about beating shit to death the last few weeks.
Sam: Okay so let's take including.
Ivan: Dogs apparently to eat and other things.
Sam: Okay Okay, we're going to take a break, and when we come back,
Sam: we'll be talking about actual news-related stuff, and we'll see how that goes.
Sam: There's a couple topics, but there's probably one big one. So we'll be back after this.
Sam: Okay, where do you want to start, Yvonne?
Sam: Is it that big obvious one? Shall we start with the big obvious one or try to
Sam: throw in some other stuff first?
Ivan: The iPhone replacement cycle?
Sam: Yeah, sure.
Ivan: I mean...
Sam: Basically, all that is is both my wife and my son had irreparable issues with
Sam: their iPhones in the last week, so we had to replace two iPhones this week.
Sam: So we got them all set up, except my son's iPhone, the last backup that it did
Sam: automatically was a little bit too old.
Sam: And so we may still take it to get it screen replaced to see if we can get into
Sam: it and force it to do one last backup.
Sam: Basically, the screen isn't broken, like cracked, but the screen is no longer responsive.
Ivan: Responsive why don't you uh could you plug it into a computer into a backup.
Sam: Yes but you have to when you
Sam: do that you have to sign into the phone before
Sam: it will talk to the computer and this and
Sam: this because it needs to authenticate and say yes do
Sam: you trust this computer all that kind of crap um and so
Sam: the screen is not cracked but the screen does not
Sam: respond to touch anymore at all and that's
Sam: no bueno and so yeah so because he's missing
Sam: like a few he's missing some pictures he's missing
Sam: a few things that he did in a couple games we are going to take it to a screen
Sam: repair place and say hey okay the screen's not cracked but it's not responsive
Sam: we're doing a cheap ass screen repair on the old phone actually fix this problem too you.
Ivan: Have apple care still old.
Sam: It's really old this is like an iphone tanner this
Sam: is way way way it's like three years past apple care
Sam: okay like so because he was on my
Sam: old phone he's now got a brand new current
Sam: phone but he was on one of my old hand-me-down
Sam: phones and it's like way way way past apple care and so it's like and so yeah
Sam: like and and it's already had it screen replaced a couple times by third-party
Sam: replacers because like you know once you're past apple care it's a lot.
Ivan: You made me check when the last last phone i've got last backup i i have okay
Ivan: it was it was 3 22 a.m so i'm yeah.
Sam: No i and i think it was because like he was he just wasn't like,
Sam: he does not have the habit of automatically plugging it in when he goes to bed at night.
Sam: And like the time that it likes to back up is a night.
Sam: It likes to back up if it's plugged in on wifi and it's the middle of the night
Sam: is it's sort of preferred backup time.
Sam: It will occasionally try other times, but like if it's, if it's low on battery
Sam: and it's not plugged in, it'll be like, I'll wait.
Sam: And so like the last backup was like several days old, that it had done automatically.
Ivan: Oh, okay. Got it.
Sam: And it hadn't uploaded photos to the cloud even either.
Sam: So we'll see. And I went and got him the new phone and I'm like, okay, you'll be all set.
Sam: We'll restore from the backup. No problem. Blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And then the backup was like four days old. It's like crap.
Sam: So anyway, that was that whole topic.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And my wife also needed to be replaced. And she's like, I don't know what happened.
Sam: It started acting crazy.
Sam: We take it to the Apple store and we were already going to replace it because
Sam: hers was not as old as my son's and not as old as mine either.
Sam: But I'm waiting for the 16 unless I break mine.
Sam: But like they immediately were like, oh, water damage, huh? Yep.
Sam: Definitely water damage.
Sam: And so water damage. Yeah. And they're like, cause they are,
Sam: they are by the way, and they made it this very clear. iPhones are water-resistant, not waterproof.
Ivan: They're not waterproof.
Sam: And even though they're...
Ivan: Yeah, but what? Was she swimming with the iPhone?
Sam: Well, no, what the, what the guy at the Apple store actually said was,
Sam: Hey, like it's yes, they're water resistant, but it's really all over the place.
Sam: Like some people will drop their phones into the pool and they'll be there for
Sam: 15, 20 minutes and they'll be absolutely fine.
Sam: Other people will accidentally splash their phone and all of a sudden it'll freak out and die.
Sam: You know, it's, and they said it's sort of all over the place.
Sam: and that's why even like like water damage isn't covered in the same way in
Sam: their warranties as everything else and they've got a little water damage sensor
Sam: so they can instantly tell if it got wet and blah blah blah yeah i know.
Ivan: They have the water sensor yes i've seen that yes.
Sam: Yeah yeah so like so anyway and and like she's like i swear i didn't drop it
Sam: in the tub or anything i'm like okay yeah it got wet and she's like but they're
Sam: water resistant they're waterproof they're nope Nope. Nope. Sorry.
Sam: And I thought the same thing too. I was actually like, I know they're not waterproof,
Sam: but I figured they're rated as water resistant to be at a certain depth for
Sam: a certain amount of time.
Sam: And so you don't have to worry about it if they're just like,
Sam: you know, if, if they fall in something for a couple seconds or they get splashed
Sam: or whatever, but apparently you do like, you should be careful.
Sam: Like there's some protection, but you, you shouldn't like, just assume that
Sam: it doesn't matter and you can get it.
Ivan: How old was her phone how old is her phone i.
Sam: Think hers was a 12 no mine's a 12 i think no hers was a 13 mine's a 12.
Ivan: It was a two years old yeah well also water seals yeah.
Sam: They degrade over time you.
Ivan: Know for whatever reason they degrade over time yeah i mean it's one of those
Ivan: Those things like with like, you know, my my my older watches where I know that
Ivan: I, you know, one of the reasons to take them for service is because,
Ivan: you know, they're older and it's like the water seals fail.
Ivan: And I I made the mistake already once with an old stupid me with an old watch
Ivan: that I had that I had not gotten serviced in years that I went into a pool and
Ivan: I went. It wasn't working right.
Ivan: And they were like, oh, water damage. I'm like, what?
Ivan: Oh, yeah. Yeah. You haven't gotten that service in like seven years.
Ivan: Yes, the water seals failed. I'm like, oh.
Sam: So, of course, this is the one opportunity that for the first time in a few
Sam: years, I get to tell about the story of when I lived in Florida.
Sam: And I was on my like third or fourth trio.
Sam: And like I was walking by the side of the pool with the trio in my hand.
Sam: And I dropped it and it went into the pool. And I just dove right in after it
Sam: fully dressed into the pool, dove in, got the phone at the bottom, pulled it up.
Sam: And I then, of course, I dumped it in rice. I did the whole thing you were supposed
Sam: to, but the phone was dead.
Ivan: Well, I did something similar, I will say. Look, I went in, this was in Hawaii. I remember 2007.
Ivan: We went to Hawaii and I was sitting on a beach chair and I had a blackberry. Okay.
Sam: Okay.
Ivan: And I'm like, and I was just, I wasn't planning on going in the water.
Ivan: And my wife was like looking at the waves and they were big.
Ivan: And she's like, no, no, no. Come on. You need to go into the ocean with me,
Ivan: please, please, please, please.
Ivan: And after she pestered me for a whole bunch of time, fine, fine,
Ivan: fine. I'm going into the damn ocean.
Ivan: And I went to the ocean and swam. And all of a sudden, I reached out of my pocket
Ivan: and I forgot to take out. Oh, yeah.
Ivan: And I mean, look, that thing just, yeah, forget it. Salt water. Yeah.
Ivan: I didn't. I mean, it was. When I took it out, it was it was making some really, really not good sounds.
Ivan: Yeah, it started to a really, really loud pitched sound. Yeah, no.
Ivan: All right, we've already dithered enough.
Sam: Yeah, well, let me suggest, can we figure out one other thing to dither on to
Sam: finish out this segment?
Sam: And then we'll just do the last segment on the Joe Biden crap,
Sam: because that's the real topic, right? We all know.
Sam: Is there some other non-Joe Biden thing to talk about to finish out this segment?
Ivan: Okay, well, okay. Okay, well, we did not touch this subject when it happened
Ivan: a couple of weeks ago, because I see that I think it's in the subjects that were held.
Ivan: Hey, we got to let go of Julian Assange. Went back to Australia.
Sam: We did mention that that happened, but we did not talk about it.
Sam: Do you have commentary on this?
Sam: Do I have commentary on this? sort of like there was a time where like Julian
Sam: Assange was a big topic that everybody you know we talked about it numerous
Sam: nobody cared but by the time this actually happened he was sort of like forgotten.
Ivan: A couple of things. One thing is he went home on a private jet. How the hell?
Sam: There are people who like him. That's all it takes.
Ivan: I mean, Jesus. Okay. I don't have the right people that like me.
Ivan: Put me on a fucking private jet. Okay.
Sam: You got to work on that.
Ivan: Okay. I guess. And then the second thing is that I had no idea. I must admit.
Ivan: I mean, I know we've got American, you know,
Ivan: the federal court system is is expansive and so i believe we do have this federal
Ivan: district courts in like the u.s virgin islands i knew that but i didn't realize
Ivan: that we had a u.s federal court in saipan i.
Sam: Guess it makes sense.
Ivan: No it makes sense i it's i mean when they said it i'm like you know i realized yes i mean that like.
Sam: Of course we do.
Ivan: Of course we do i'm like i mean that totally made sense stupid of me not to
Ivan: realize that we had a federal, that we had a federal courthouse there.
Ivan: And so that's where he went and pleaded out his case.
Ivan: I guess he just, you know, pleaded time served and, and then they just went.
Sam: Cause he, cause he's been, he, between hiding out in embassies and officially
Sam: being arrested in the UK, I mean, he's been detained or his feed freedom has
Sam: been restricted for many years now for many.
Ivan: Many years.
Sam: And, and basically when you add all that It's way past whatever he would have
Sam: been sentenced for for this stuff anyway.
Ivan: I'm just wondering what triggered this happening. It just, you know, all of a sudden.
Sam: Well, there were a few things. One, it is just the time passed.
Sam: But also, apparently, Australia has been lobbying for his freedom for a while.
Ivan: Oh, they had been. Okay. Okay.
Sam: Yeah. And so Joe Biden was like, as part of, you know, working on the relationship
Sam: with Australia was like, okay, fine. You can have.
Ivan: We'll send them out. Okay.
Sam: And also his, you know, the, the, his, like, like you said, he had,
Sam: he had served a bunch of time anyway.
Sam: He wasn't necessarily going to be particularly useful in sort of any sort of
Sam: plea deal to get more information out of him or anything else like that.
Sam: So like, what are you going to do?
Ivan: I mean, we're going to lock them up and get moat together with Trump.
Sam: Oh, is Trump in Gitmo now? I don't think so, Yvonne.
Ivan: Well, I mean, no, part, well, part, well, no, I mean, part of Biden's like.
Sam: Oh, now that we have the new powers. Yeah.
Ivan: Now we have the new powers. I was figuring that, look, I mean,
Ivan: Biden could do just a whole roundup of people to send them to Gitmo.
Ivan: And so, you know, we could just send them over there, you know,
Ivan: I mean, I, I, I mean, i'd add
Ivan: like let's see send send trump matt gates
Ivan: lauren bobert uh oh
Ivan: no that sounds like a party for trump what am i saying no um
Ivan: what am i what am i doing no no
Ivan: no uh lock him up with a whole bunch of people he doesn't like like i'll send
Ivan: like you know i said like jd vance and you know marco rubio and you know it's
Ivan: just a whole bunch of people like that that are just sniveling idiots that he
Ivan: just finds useful that he'll get really annoyed with and just call losers real quick.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah.
Ivan: Well, and Assange.
Sam: And Assange. Let's see. Yeah. If we're doing cleanup like that,
Sam: we mentioned briefly the UK elections last week, but they hadn't happened yet,
Sam: so we haven't mentioned the French elections.
Ivan: Oh, that's right.
Sam: And so...
Ivan: Forgot about that.
Sam: So, yeah, in a surprise, the right wing did not get the expected win that they thought they would get.
Sam: Partially, this is due to... And this was percolating for a while,
Sam: but even with this in place, the polling did not support that the liberals were
Sam: going to pull it off. But there was the...
Sam: Left and center groups. This was a second round. Essentially, it was the runoffs.
Sam: And basically, in most districts, the left and center picked one of them to
Sam: drop out, to consolidate the non-right-wing vote to try to win.
Sam: And there were some complaints heading up to the second round,
Sam: that that wasn't happening in enough districts.
Sam: And that specifically Macron's centrist party was holding off from doing that in certain areas.
Sam: And why were they doing that? But apparently it happened in enough areas that
Sam: the coalition of the center and the left
Sam: managed to hold off the right-wing win that was expected.
Sam: And yeah, so nobody got a majority, so they're still going to have to haggle
Sam: out coalitions and all this kind of stuff.
Sam: But yeah, so that happened. And it was unlike the UK, where we got pretty much
Sam: the result that everyone expected given polling.
Sam: In France, this was a surprise. This is not what people thought was going to happen.
Ivan: Well, I will say that there were some polling analysts that expected the conservatives
Ivan: to do even significantly worse.
Ivan: I think that some of the analysis that I saw expected the Tories to get- Let's
Ivan: not call them conservatives in this case.
Sam: This is further right than conservative.
Ivan: I mean, the Tories, well, I'm talking- Oh.
Sam: You're talking UK now. I mean, I'm talking UK. I thought you were talking France.
Ivan: No, no, no, no, no, not France. No, the conservatives in the UK,
Ivan: I mean, I saw a number of people that were doing analysis that thought they
Ivan: would get less than 80 seats.
Ivan: And they did get around 140, 150.
Sam: And they're still the second biggest party. They did not come in third.
Ivan: Yeah, they still, they are the second biggest party. But I mean,
Ivan: Jesus, I mean, it's what, 300 something to like 150.
Ivan: I mean, it's a ridiculous margin. I mean, they have no power at all.
Sam: Well, yeah. And I mean, in the UK system, if you're not the majority,
Sam: you basically have no power at all, like even by one seat. But yeah.
Ivan: Yeah. But it's not like, yeah, but it's like, it's overwhelming.
Ivan: I mean, it's not like, you know, it's not even close.
Sam: I know what you're talking about. But yeah, I was kind of hoping they'd come
Sam: in like third. That would have been nice, but not quite. Yeah.
Ivan: I mean, that was like some of the expectations, but no, it didn't happen. So, so anyway, yeah.
Ivan: And now, now Sam is moving.
Sam: I got this adjustable desk. Now I just, uh, for, first of all,
Sam: for the first time I'm doing, I, so far everything in the show I've been standing
Sam: up and I just like stood on my little balance board thing too.
Sam: So I moved the desk a little further up.
Ivan: And Sam is wearing a being very Doug Emoff, uh, uh, being, uh,
Ivan: as, as you know, he, his shirt is a Brandy Donaghy, uh, campaign shirt.
Sam: It's a Brandy Donaghy campaign shirt from two years ago. Uh,
Sam: she hasn't made new ones for this cycle yet.
Sam: And I, but I will say though, I am wearing, I usually save this t-shirt specifically
Sam: only for campaign events to, I just put it aside.
Sam: So it's always clean. So if we're going to a campaign event, I can pull it on.
Sam: But this time I am wearing this because this is literally my last clean shirt.
Sam: So there, there will be laundry this weekend.
Sam: So laundry will be happening shortly, but yeah, this is my last,
Sam: well, not my last clean shirt entirely. I have some button up shirts.
Ivan: But yeah, you're not, well, you're not doing that.
Sam: Yeah, no, I don't want to do that.
Ivan: You know that you know speaking
Ivan: of things that was a conversation i had this week because
Ivan: i was at an i was at the office of all places and
Ivan: and man the office in san juan is okay we doubt you know a crazy thing you're
Ivan: gonna have to get a bigger office okay okay so many people are going to the
Ivan: office we can't fit okay so not by order okay just by choice so this is even
Ivan: crazier And the thing is,
Ivan: and I've noticed that the contrasting dress styles right now,
Ivan: especially post-pandemic,
Ivan: and I am definitely by far the most formally dressed person by a gal.
Ivan: I mean, by, by a fricking, you know, by a few AU. Okay.
Ivan: I'll use a cosmic metric. It's ridiculous.
Sam: I, I, why am I not surprised?
Ivan: It's like not even like fucking close and i'm
Ivan: not sure i i you know i i i'm not i
Ivan: i'm it's not an age thing either
Ivan: so i i thought maybe it's my age and i'm realizing nope it's not that i i don't
Ivan: know yeah i am definitely by a you know several galactic measures of unit to
Ivan: address way more problems,
Ivan: everybody i'm just like this conversation going to a customer what am i wearing
Ivan: what the fuck you think i'm wearing i'm wearing a fucking suit i'm not showing
Ivan: up the fucking customer the other than a fucking suit it's not happening over
Ivan: my fucking dead body wait.
Sam: Wait yvonne yvonne yvonne that seems underdressed no talks.
Ivan: No talks no talks i will say that i look i did this pens with the tie no time
Ivan: okay there is no time okay but i am not fucking going to a customer in anything less than a suit you.
Sam: Should you should like show up in cosplay like be like dressed up as like c3po or something.
Ivan: Oh that would be interesting that would be quite interesting showed up to a
Ivan: customer you know i'm trying to figure out what the reaction is when i get the security uh yes uh like,
Ivan: you're like looking at me. What the fuck?
Ivan: I mean, I will admit that that would make me quite an interesting thing to try
Ivan: to pull off one of these days, trying to get a seat at 3PO's.
Sam: You would stand out. You would be memorable.
Ivan: I'm sure that I would be standing out, yes. And I think probably at some point
Ivan: I would maybe take it away to some kind of mental institution,
Ivan: for evaluation. So anyway, hopefully not in Gitmo. Okay.
Sam: I think it's time. Let's take another break and then we will talk about Joe
Sam: Biden and everything surrounding that.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: Yes.
Sam: Yes. Yes.
Ivan: Surrounding.
Sam: Surrounding.
Ivan: We're going to do it in surround sound. Dolby Atmos.
Sam: Yeah. Whatever. Here we go.
Sam: Okay, we're back. So let me, let me just start out by saying,
Sam: for those of you who are on the curmudgeons corner slack, we have obviously
Sam: like all week long been going back and forth on the Joe Biden situation quite a lot.
Sam: I'll say, and there there's been, this is not a unanimous group here in our
Sam: opinion on the curmudgeons corner slack.
Sam: There's been a lot of semi heated debate and we will probably rehash some of that.
Ivan: Well, nobody, no. Okay. Well, let's be clear. Well, let's be clear.
Ivan: Nobody, nobody has said they're going to vote for Trump.
Sam: Yeah. Nobody's voting for Trump. Nobody's stormed off in anger.
Sam: You know, no, no one's voting.
Ivan: For RFK Jr. or something. No, no.
Sam: We're, we're not at each other's throats, but how, but there is not,
Sam: there's not a consensus on the right way forward. Let's say that.
Sam: And so if, if those of you who are on the curmudgeons corner slack,
Sam: Slack hear a little bit of repetition of things you've heard either myself or
Sam: Yvonne say on the Commodions Corner Slack. Sorry.
Sam: Now, Yvonne and I are kind of in somewhat of agreement, though,
Sam: compared to somebody else, other folks.
Ivan: But yes, but but let me but let me but I wanted to mention one thing before
Ivan: we even started on this subject.
Sam: Oh, wait, one one more thing.
Sam: One more thing. thing i just want to throw out there one more
Sam: thing if you are not on the curmudgeons corner slack you should be so contact
Sam: us we'll give all the contact stuff at the end and join us because like we had
Sam: a really nice interesting healthy debate going back and forth talking about
Sam: all kinds of stuff it would be great to have more people okay now we've on your turn.
Ivan: Well here's an interesting thing about this and i it started dawning upon me
Ivan: and it actually dawned upon me as as you mentioned, what our next subject is.
Ivan: One thing that's happened is that, you know, how many times have we been on
Ivan: this show that the topic of conversation has been Trump?
Sam: Yes. Right.
Ivan: And for better or worse, okay, it isn't.
Ivan: It isn't. We're talking about Joe. Right.
Ivan: And and, you know, whatever discussion about about Trump has fallen to the wayside.
Sam: Like Trump has done all kinds of crazy shit in the last two weeks,
Sam: just like he does every week.
Sam: But it's gotten almost no attention because everybody is obsessed with the Joe Biden situation.
Ivan: Well, well, to be fair, look, he did spend about 14 days playing golf before he went to an event. well.
Sam: He did do that he did he took some time off but.
Ivan: Yeah but and and and i mean he yeah i mean he said things you know i guess what was he.
Sam: Said things he's done things he he's been confused about things he's lied he
Sam: hasn't made sense but you know the thing is everybody.
Ivan: That's that's like but it's that the thing is that's.
Sam: Like every day so people are bored.
Ivan: Every fucking day for trump up and they just tune it out right every day for
Ivan: seven years of this shit you know yeah.
Sam: So you can't make news with like oh trump lied today or trump said something outrageous or.
Ivan: Or or trump confused someone's name i was remembering one that was like hilarious
Ivan: like what he called tim cook tim apple yep.
Sam: Tim apple good old tim apple.
Ivan: For example and and good old tim apple and like i don't know he He called Melania
Ivan: something else. Mercedes.
Ivan: He called his wife something else.
Sam: Mm-hmm.
Ivan: I mean, I'm like...
Sam: I do that all the time. I get my wife, my dog, and my son confused all the time.
Ivan: I get my mom. It happens to be more with my mom, where I call her my wife.
Ivan: I'm like, oh, Jesus Christ. I'm like, what the fuck?
Sam: Okay.
Sam: I don't even mention calling my wife mom,
Sam: because at this point, Once I had kids, I got used to calling her mom because
Sam: I'm referring to her from my kid's perspective. Like, go talk to mom.
Sam: But she's not my mom. My mom is elsewhere. She did stuff.
Sam: She went and did stuff with my son today. But no, I am so bad with names.
Sam: I get them screwed up all the time.
Ivan: Yeah. So, so anyway, so, so, so Biden has been getting all the attention, but here's the thing.
Ivan: You do realize that at the last week, especially the last couple of days,
Ivan: you know, the attention has been good.
Sam: Yes because you know
Sam: the whole cycle of this thing obviously we had
Sam: a really bad debate and there was
Sam: the spiral of negative attention surrounding that but the last few times he's
Sam: been on like the conversation about it like specifically right now we've got
Sam: two things he did the press conference at the, well,
Sam: he did Stephanopoulos, but that was a week ago. That was sort of mixed reviews on that.
Sam: But like, then he did the press conference after NATO.
Sam: And then just a few hours ago, he did a rally in Michigan.
Sam: The, for both of those, well, some media criticism coming here in a second,
Sam: but for both of those, it was like, wow, he did a really great job.
Sam: And there was a lot of conversation about how he really did really well.
Sam: He was articulate, blah, blah, blah. He knew what he was talking about.
Sam: He was forceful, blah, blah, blah. And then rapidly pivoting to,
Sam: oh, but he did do a few verbal flubs during it.
Sam: And this probably isn't enough. He's in such a deep hole that,
Sam: yeah, he gave a good speech. Yeah, he did a good press conference,
Sam: but it's not enough to turn things around. He's still in deep, deep trouble.
Ivan: You know, as I and I, you know, the one, you know, I've done I mean,
Ivan: I've done a couple of things looking back through history about what's happened
Ivan: with presidents and whatnot.
Ivan: I mean, one thing that I knew factually was what's happened with incumbent presidents
Ivan: going back decades. I did that off.
Ivan: I went and I summarized it off the top of my head.
Ivan: And what's what's happened and who's won and who's lost and why or and so forth.
Ivan: So, so, you know, that's one thing, but the one that I, I really,
Ivan: I mean, I, we all remember that Truman, you know, one in 48. Okay.
Sam: The, the famous newspaper photo, blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: The, the famous newspaper, what do we defeat Truman? We all know that.
Ivan: But one thing that I, I guess I, I didn't remember, and I got a refresher from
Ivan: Peggy Noonan, who was a Reagan speech, speech writer who actually actively supports,
Ivan: but that Biden stay in the race.
Ivan: i didn't realize that the path for him to get the nomination was absolutely chaotic oh.
Sam: The the the one in 80.
Ivan: No no no no 84 i'm talking about truman oh.
Sam: Truman i thought you were talking reagan now you're confused.
Ivan: No i didn't jump back i said that peggy noonan wrote this article about about
Ivan: what what happened leading up to that election okay.
Sam: Go go for it refresh me because i don't remember off the top of my head either.
Ivan: Well i didn't remember and i and i and
Ivan: i shared the article in our in our slack but
Ivan: it basically talked that that i mean they were getting they
Ivan: were arguing they wanted truman not to be on
Ivan: the ticket they they went to the convention they
Ivan: were it was a mess they were trying to get
Ivan: him off the ticket and and he and
Ivan: everybody and every pundit said that he was going
Ivan: to lose and that that was the
Ivan: whole reason why at the end there was like that whole you know all the information
Ivan: no he's he's going to lose he's going to lose and they called it they they were
Ivan: calling it for for him and lo and behold it it it it wasn't the case you know
Ivan: and i'm trying I'm trying to find it,
Ivan: but we, you know, because I did share the, the,
Ivan: the article and it was, it was in the wall street journals opinion piece by
Ivan: Peggy Noonan and I'm trying to, uh, God, I'm trying to find it now.
Ivan: Hold on. Uh, okay.
Ivan: It is sharing on the Slack, but unfortunately, we talked way too much on the Slack.
Sam: I don't actually remember it. I don't actually. I might have missed it because
Sam: there was so much other conversation happening.
Ivan: I think that it may have been or shit. I thought maybe I did send it and I didn't.
Ivan: I did send it right when I there was the I did share the image of of Dewey defeating
Ivan: truman and i thought that i shared the story but i guess i didn't no i did but
Ivan: i did not i did not i did not so so hold on once.
Sam: Again and i'm gonna keep repeating this phrase for the rest of the campaign
Sam: season probably you are showing your biden-esque.
Ivan: The dementia yes and and the story The story was, if Democrats are wise,
Ivan: they'll embrace the chaos.
Ivan: Okay. All right. Okay. And she went on to summarize how that was completely chaotic.
Ivan: Okay. That it was just like this. You know, let's see.
Ivan: The real, you know, let me see.
Ivan: I'm getting to. Here is a story of a party that was a mess, destroyed,
Ivan: riven, and without hope.
Ivan: The Democratic Party of 1948 was a train wreck wrapped in a dumpster fire encased
Ivan: in the Marconi Room of the Titanic.
Ivan: Its left wing split and formed a progressive party whose leader,
Ivan: Henry Wallace, became the presidential candidate.
Ivan: The right wing, the mighty Southern Sucker Gingers, stormed out during the party
Ivan: convention and decided to run their own presidential candidate, Strom Thurmond.
Sam: Oh, yeah, Strom Thurmond. Yes, okay.
Ivan: The New Deal coalition that lasted 16 years had fallen apart.
Ivan: President Harry S. Truman, 64, at the peak of his powers, was at the bottom of the polls.
Ivan: Party leaders couldn't help him make his convention a success because they were
Ivan: too busy trying to draft Dwight Eisenhower to take his place.
Ivan: The convention opened on July 12th during an oppressive heat wave.
Ivan: The huge crowds that were expected didn't come.
Ivan: David McCollum in the biography Truman noted local cab drivers complained they
Ivan: had the wrong convention.
Ivan: Riggs, they should have given us hearses. Floor fights broke out.
Ivan: The Dixiecrats marched.
Ivan: The convention was pathetically bogged down in its own gloom.
Ivan: Speeches were long and windy, the balloting long.
Ivan: Truman arrived at 9.15 p.m. for his acceptance speech.
Ivan: He didn't go on until almost two in the morning. To make matters worse,
Ivan: before he spoke, the convention had to watch a former senator's sister unveil
Ivan: a special treat, a six-foot-tall Liberty Bell.
Ivan: She'd construct it containing 48 pigeons designated as doves of peace.
Ivan: They would fly majestically through the air as the span truck up the hail to
Ivan: the sheath, but they had been cooped up in their heat for hours,
Ivan: and when the belt opened, some of them dropped out dead.
Ivan: The rest distraught flew wildly through the hall, smashing at the television
Ivan: lights, rafters, and drapes.
Ivan: Historian Dave Drewser writes, they died bomb delegates. Men and women shouted,
Ivan: watch your clothes. Some bitches went for the podium.
Ivan: Convention chairman Sam Rayburn frantically shushed them away.
Ivan: one nearly landing on his glistening ball head
Ivan: another headed straight for the plates this would be great if
Ivan: we got this a plates of a 36 electric inch
Ivan: electric fan saved from filleting only by rayburn's quick action get those damn
Ivan: bitches out of here he screamed over live radio and tv this was actually on
Ivan: live okay truman had prepared a formal speech and went from bullet points the The crowd loved it.
Ivan: I judge it the worst of his career, snotty, militant, and more than a little
Ivan: demagogic. But up against it, he showed plenty of fight.
Ivan: McCullough said critics on the left and the right found themselves grudgingly
Ivan: moved by such nerve and audacity in the face of odds.
Ivan: And so we know, and it talks more about it, but bottom line is that I had not
Ivan: realized how chaotic it was that year,
Ivan: and that somehow Truman wound up pulling it out and winning anyway.
Ivan: So what she is arguing is that— Is.
Sam: Have the open convention.
Ivan: This chaos is not bad.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: You know, that it probably is a positive.
Ivan: And, you know, this isn't the disaster that people are thinking it is.
Ivan: The romantics are right and are seeing the situation clearly.
Ivan: They aren't innocent. They understand the chaos that will ensue.
Ivan: But they know what U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq used to say, embrace the suck.
Ivan: Open this up. Take a chance. You may electrify America.
Ivan: And so, you know, I did not realize that Truman's path to that victory was that
Ivan: was that fraught with that much chaos and with calls.
Ivan: And but no, but but yeah, with calls of drafting somebody to replace the top
Ivan: of the ticket, the arguments and the whatever. And you know what wound up?
Ivan: Still winning the presidency. I think, you know, but I had gone later through
Ivan: a list of practically you go through every you go through all the reelections.
Ivan: And, you know, the one thing is that nobody with the ones that lost for reelection,
Ivan: all of those had so many things going against them.
Ivan: that biden actually has as positives i.
Sam: Mean this.
Ivan: Is like a vibe session like somebody was talking about this there is no recession
Ivan: the economy isn't tanking.
Sam: There's this one historian i forget the one who has
Sam: like the keys like yeah yeah yeah he he sort of lists like these 12 items that
Sam: affect whether or not you know who wins or loses in presidential elections and
Sam: he's like i've got got a better track record with these keys than any of these
Sam: pollsters or anything like that. They're the kinds of things you're talking about.
Sam: What people typically call fundamentals, like is the economy good during the
Sam: election year? Are they an incumbent?
Sam: Do they have X going for them, Y going for them, Z going for them? There's a whole list.
Sam: And they're sort of the things that are not, they're not just measuring like,
Sam: oh, who's up and who's down in the polls. But it's basically saying there are
Sam: these factors that generally affect elections.
Sam: And more often than not, you can guess the outcome based on.
Ivan: Well, Bloomberg also did a summary of like 10 factors, you know,
Ivan: going into this one compared with other presidencies. And like Biden basically had nine out of 10.
Ivan: And even the one that that that maybe Trump had a little bit of an edge on,
Ivan: you could dispute. beaut.
Ivan: I mean, it's just, you're looking at it and it's like, what are these things that,
Ivan: Then it's like, man, I mean, it's just the guys that have this just don't lose,
Ivan: even if there is infighting, even if there is whatever.
Sam: Okay. So the keys that I was talking about.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: The historian is Alan Lichtman.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: And it was co-developed by him and a Russian geophysicist named Vladimir Kelisborok in 1981.
Ivan: Wow. Okay.
Sam: It is apparently modified off prediction methods that were originally used for earthquakes.
Ivan: Oh, nice.
Sam: Weird. But anyway, it's called the keys to the White House. And there are 13 keys.
Sam: And let me read them off. Number one, a party mandate, which is based on after
Sam: the midterms, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives
Sam: than after the previous midterm.
Sam: So Democrats do not have that one. No primary contest.
Sam: Yes, on that one. incumbent seeing seeking re-election yes on that one no third
Sam: party don't have that one well.
Ivan: We got the rfk junior dumbass.
Sam: He is a he is being he's a stronger third party position than we've had in years
Sam: so he counts you know so that counts yeah but i.
Ivan: Don't know well here's a question i still don't have how many states is is he going to be on the ballot.
Sam: It's it's not gonna him i don't know he's he still says he's gonna be on a lot
Sam: but like some of them are disputed and no.
Ivan: No no what does he says what's the reality.
Sam: I don't know i don't know the the thing is though here here's the he has no chance of isn't.
Ivan: He passed for a lot of isn't he passed already a lot of deadlines for for being on ballots.
Sam: Oh well here's here's the here's the thing is it's not like he's got a chance
Sam: of winning but he's going to be on the ballot on some of the swing states Well.
Ivan: That's the question.
Sam: And he can make the difference. All it has to do is he has to take votes from one side or the other.
Ivan: Is he going to be on all the swing states? I mean, that's the question.
Sam: I think he might end up on all of the swing states, or at least most of them.
Sam: Anyway, strong short-term economy, basically not in recession. We got that.
Sam: Strong long-term economy, real per capita economic growth equals or exceeds
Sam: mean growth during the previous two terms. I think that's going to be true.
Sam: Major policy change that the incumbent did. You can argue that one.
Sam: No social unrest, no scandal, no foreign military failure, major foreign military
Sam: success, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic challenger.
Sam: Now, Biden does not have all of those, but he has more than he doesn't.
Sam: And so I'm always a little bit wary of ones like this that try to aggregate
Sam: everything into sort of these large factors rather than the specifics,
Sam: because I think personality and stuff does matter.
Sam: But anyway, the point is there are arguments like this, and you were hitting some of those.
Ivan: Yeah, and I mean, the one that Bloomberg had pulled up, there were 10 different
Ivan: metrics that they had pulled up.
Ivan: for example, healthcare signups, where, you know, right now we are at north
Ivan: of 90%, which is better than, I mean, it's better than ever,
Ivan: like right now, you know, in this century.
Ivan: You know, so that's one. Salary increases, outpacing inflation,
Ivan: that one's also one that is, I mean, that's also better than ever,
Ivan: by the way, in this century.
Ivan: Jobs created as well.
Ivan: That inflation has been coming down big time uh you
Ivan: know investment manufacturing a personal
Ivan: wealth narrowing inequality i mean
Ivan: you know stock market that's booming crime that is down i mean shit i mean it's
Ivan: it's it's all of those the only one that they were saying and i dispute a little
Ivan: bit like you know if this is a good metric is is the issues with encounters at the southern border.
Ivan: And the reason why that one, to me, I always say it's a little bit suspect is
Ivan: because, I mean, you're counting apprehensions.
Ivan: I mean, you know what? You could argue
Ivan: that 20 years ago, we just weren't apprehending a lot of these people.
Ivan: So counting the encounters is not really exactly a great metric of what the
Ivan: situation is on the border.
Sam: Right, because you don't know how many you're missing.
Ivan: Exactly. So I think that that metric is bogus.
Ivan: It's just not – it just may mean that you were doing a very good job at what
Ivan: they were supposed to be doing in terms of immigration.
Ivan: So I just – so that's the one that basically – but it's like you're looking through this.
Ivan: It's like you haven't had a president. Right.
Ivan: in in history with this kind of stuff lose i mean hell we talk about inarticulate
Ivan: man come on does anybody remember w yeah.
Sam: Yeah but like at the same time i want to let me just give the summary that everybody's
Sam: putting out to counter that and why everybody's sort of freaking out about well
Sam: one of many reasons people are freaking out about biden well people are.
Ivan: Freaking out basically because trump is the other candidate let's start off with that it's just.
Sam: Well as trump Trump is the other candidate. We had the really bad debate performance.
Sam: Lots of people think the really bad debate performance is an indicator of underlying
Sam: problems with Joe Biden that are just going to get worse over time, et cetera, et cetera.
Sam: But specifically looking at polls, the fundamental situation is that Joe Biden
Sam: has been behind in a long time, national polls.
Sam: He's He only had a very narrow window where he was very slightly ahead on national
Sam: polls before the debate happened and that reversed.
Sam: And on state level polls, he has been behind consistently in the swing state
Sam: polls, you know, for months and months and months.
Sam: From my point of view, he, from looking at election graphs, he's been behind
Sam: since roughly October of last year.
Sam: And you know when i like and i'll do my
Sam: election graphs and thing like last week i introduced my like amount of time
Sam: left probabilities that has gotten a lot worse in the last week as new state
Sam: polls have come out uh first of all my tipping point where he had gotten it down like right
Sam: before the debate,
Sam: he had gotten the tipping point down to Trump only being ahead by 1.1%,
Sam: which was the best since late October. Okay.
Sam: It is now up to Trump being ahead by 4.9% in the tipping point state.
Sam: That's a big difference. It's a four point swing over the the course of like a couple of weeks.
Sam: Now we can dispute like how much of that was the debate itself versus how much
Sam: of it was the reaction to the debate.
Sam: But either way, it's a big swing in that direction.
Sam: And percentage wise in my uniform swing, accounting for time left before the
Sam: election that moved him from.
Sam: Right before the debate, a 43% chance of winning to now an 8% chance of winning,
Sam: according to my thing. Now, here's the thing here.
Ivan: You know, I just pulled up here. I'll put I'll put up your I'll pull my counterpoint
Ivan: here. Twenty six. Twenty sixteen.
Sam: Yeah.
Ivan: You know what? But on this day, on this day, 2016, in FiveThirtyEight.com,
Ivan: July 12th, Hillary Clinton had a 77.4% chance of winning and Donald Trump had
Ivan: a 22.5% chance of winning.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: And the whole thing about it is that the election doesn't fucking happen today.
Sam: Well, no. Well, my odds were not if the election was held today. It takes into account.
Ivan: But listen, the thing is that your data isn't a crystal ball.
Ivan: You can make all the financial...
Sam: No, no. Well, and that's the thing. Very famously, very famously,
Sam: and I've said this over and over again, if you took all the people who are giving
Sam: odds in 2016, the average for Donald Trump was 14%. 14% is not zero.
Ivan: 14% is not zero.
Sam: You just have to have the right set of things happen. The polls are wrong in the right direction.
Sam: You have last minute moves. You have whatever, like 14% is not zero.
Sam: Neither is 8%. And there are a variety of ways that you can potentially come back from that.
Sam: It's just, if you had to bet right now, you would bet on Donald Trump.
Sam: But, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's not.
Ivan: I guess it's not, I'm just, I, you know, look, I, I don't, look, I don't agree.
Ivan: And I'll tell you why. It was the same reason why, for example, when I was like in 2020,
Ivan: you know, I'll tell you what, I mean, I felt even though Biden had a lead the
Ivan: whole fucking way nervous about it. Yeah.
Sam: Well, here's the thing this time, like by last time and in 2016,
Sam: Trump never had a lead in the polls ever. ever like in either one of those years.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: This time, uh,
Sam: Biden has barely ever had a lead. And yet we know the poll errors could go the
Sam: opposite direction than they've gone the last two years.
Sam: But the last two years, they underestimated Republicans.
Sam: But let me back off, because I also think, well, I think we should step back
Sam: just a second and go over what's happened this last week. Yeah.
Sam: And then we can sort of make our predictions about the future and what's going to happen.
Sam: But basically, when we last spoke, Biden had done his interview with,
Sam: what's his name? It was Stephanopoulos.
Sam: Stephanopoulos. um and sort of
Sam: everybody agreed that he did okay but there
Sam: was a lot of talk that well yeah he did okay but not
Sam: necessarily good enough and so this stuff is
Sam: going to continue i believe i actually said that i
Sam: thought this was going to linger on for at least another week
Sam: before it got closed down in one way or
Sam: another monday tuesday of this
Sam: last week there were actually lots of reports about how the people in Congress
Sam: who were pushing for Joe Biden to get out were demoralized and feeling like
Sam: they'd lost because Joe Biden had stated fairly forcefully that he was staying in.
Sam: He sent a letter that he was staying in, and they felt like their efforts to
Sam: convince him were fizzling.
Sam: Because everybody sort of realizes, by the way, there is not a mechanism to
Sam: push Joe Joe Biden out if he doesn't want to go.
Sam: You know, basically all of the ways that result in something else involved Joe
Sam: Biden specifically saying I'm out.
Sam: I released my delegates, you know, and he said no.
Sam: And so Monday, Tuesday of this week, like.
Sam: There were numerous reports that this was sort of fizzling out and people were
Sam: resigning themselves to Joe Biden.
Sam: They weren't necessarily happy about it, but they were resigning themselves
Sam: to the idea that, yeah, this is what's going to happen.
Sam: But then a couple of things happened.
Sam: One, Nancy Pelosi went on Morning Joe and was like, you know,
Sam: I will respect Joe Biden's decision.
Sam: It's really up to him. And the host pointed out, well, he's already made a decision.
Sam: And she's like, well, yeah, I'll respect his decision when he makes it.
Sam: You know, basically like not acknowledging or recognizing that he, I saw the video.
Sam: At first I saw the quote and I'm like, ah, is she just like, what did she mean here?
Sam: And then she sort of walked it back later. But looking at the whole like sequence
Sam: of events and knowing that Nancy Pelosi has a history of being very,
Sam: very deliberate with her words,
Sam: I think she absolutely knew she was throwing a grenade back into things and
Sam: saying like, you know, and basically pretending that he had not made a decision
Sam: yet and indicating that he still had time to change his mind when,
Sam: in fact, he'd already come out and said, I made my decision. I'm staying in.
Ivan: Well, I have seen that both her and Hakeem Jeffries have been very coy with
Ivan: the language they have been using.
Sam: Yes, they have. But here's the thing. If they wanted to be supportive of Joe Biden.
Ivan: Oh, yeah, yeah. They could have just. Yeah, they could have just done that.
Sam: They are very.
Ivan: I agree. And instead, they're being very coy.
Sam: Yeah. And this whole thing with what Nancy Pelosi said was very specifically
Sam: like Joe Biden had closed the door. He said he'd made a decision.
Sam: And then she goes on TV and is like, well, he, he, we, he, we need to give him
Sam: time to make his decision and we need to respect his decision.
Sam: And, and, you know, they're like, but he already made a decision.
Sam: He needs, he needs time to make his decision it's like
Sam: okay and then within hours after that we had the george clooney editorial in
Sam: the new york times saying that hey he he he was out of i held a big fundraiser
Sam: for him it was one of the biggest biggest fundraisers ever and when he was there well.
Ivan: It wasn't it was wait wait wait wait.
Sam: Yes he.
Ivan: Attended that fundraiser i believe that it was jimmy kimmel.
Sam: Oh okay fundraiser so But he has made very high dollar fundraisers before,
Sam: but he attended this one.
Sam: But his point was that- He saw.
Ivan: That he was old.
Sam: Well, he said, I saw Donald, not Donald Trump, I saw Joe Biden there.
Ivan: You said Donald Trump?
Sam: Yes,
Sam: Biden-esque. You know, people were complaining that he called Kamala Harris
Sam: Donald Trump the other day and.
Ivan: I do it all the time.
Sam: You know, you called me out last week for calling Biden Obama, you know.
Ivan: More than once, and you keep doing it.
Sam: I keep doing that.
Ivan: You keep, I mean, man, you have a, man, that's been a consistent one.
Sam: It has been.
Ivan: You calling Biden Obama. Boom. I mean, it just always rolls out as Obama for whatever reason.
Sam: Hey well at least it's not clinton or carter well.
Ivan: Yeah good point yes yes.
Sam: But but anyway the he he basically said look the biden i interacted with on
Sam: that night was like the debate biden like that was it was right before.
Ivan: The fucking debate mate. Of course it was.
Ivan: He was tired. He was sick. I mean, yeah.
Ivan: I mean, I'm like, why the hell are you surprised?
Sam: Yeah. Was that actually during the week that Biden said he was sick?
Ivan: It was the week right before. Yes.
Sam: Yeah. Okay.
Ivan: So I'm like, I'm like, um, I, I, I.
Sam: So between Nancy Pelosi and George Clooney, like what looked like it was starting
Sam: to dial down, die down, whatever, just blew right back up again.
Sam: And we got more and more congressional people starting to say things and starting
Sam: to come out against him. There was just this ongoing trickle.
Sam: And then Nancy Pelosi also said, though, that we should wait till after NATO's over.
Sam: After the NATO thing is over. So then there started to be reports that on Friday,
Sam: there were going to be a few dozen congressional people coming out.
Ivan: Well, he said, I believe a number of you had quoted yesterday was 40.
Sam: Yeah, I, I, I, I'd seen multiple people. Some people said 40,
Sam: some people said a few dozen.
Sam: It was all over the place, but, but a large number of congressional people.
Ivan: I did count it today. I did count today. day. I did count the, there was a list.
Sam: Wait, wait, let me get to there. I know that I know the numbers lower,
Sam: but let me just say, then Joe Biden had this press conference at the end of the summit.
Sam: And I mentioned this earlier, but almost everybody universally talked about
Sam: how he was absolutely masterful on the facts.
Sam: He knew all the details of what was going on.
Sam: He, he was basically did a tour de force in his expertise on foreign policy.
Sam: And, and, and everybody started out their reviews of the press conference that
Sam: way that he showed expertise.
Sam: He knew what he was talking about and, and, and he was forceful about what he said.
Ivan: And by the way, over 20 million people watch that damn thing.
Sam: Yes. Lots of people watch that about 40%, 44% of the numbers that watch the
Sam: debate, but still a damn healthy number for a press conference.
Ivan: Yes. Yes.
Sam: You know, how many people People watch your normal presidential press conference.
Sam: Like a handful of news geeks.
Ivan: Exactly. That's it. Basically. Yes.
Sam: You know, but, but then all of the reporting almost immediately always followed
Sam: up with, oh, but at one point he called Kamala Harris Trump.
Sam: At earlier in the day, he called Zelensky Putin.
Sam: And these are the things that'll be remembered.
Ivan: And that one was fun. That would turn, and that would turn funny because he
Ivan: was like, you know, he realized it.
Sam: Because he recognized it and went back.
Ivan: He recognized it and went back and Zelinsky was laughing about it.
Ivan: I mean, they had a joke about it. It was just like, whatever.
Sam: Zelinsky said, I'm better.
Ivan: You know.
Sam: But the coverage was all about, yeah, he was really good, but,
Sam: and then listing all the buts.
Ivan: The buts were two, basically.
Sam: Right. And then what What I guess though, and you have the number in front of
Sam: you, the 40 or slash a few dozen that were going to come out on Friday did not
Sam: materialize. It was a smaller number.
Ivan: No, it turned to like 18.
Sam: So 18. Well, 18 is still more than one dozen, but yeah.
Ivan: Yeah, but it's not several. You know, they said several dozen. There were 40.
Sam: That can't wait. No, wait. Is 18 the total or the new new from Friday?
Ivan: No, 18 was a total. I counted everybody, including that, that guy from right.
Sam: So how many new and Friday, how many new on Friday? Cause there were already like a.
Ivan: It's like a, Oh, like a, Oh, like a, like eight or nine. Maybe that's it.
Ivan: Something like that. Yeah.
Sam: Okay. Yeah. So like, it was not the huge, like people were talking about,
Sam: well, as soon as NATO's over, the dam's going to break and there will be so
Sam: much opposition to Joe Biden in Congress that he'll have no choice.
Sam: Now there are a few things with that. First of all, from everything I have read about this.
Sam: The people pressuring Joe Biden is backfiring entirely.
Sam: Like every time somebody tries to pressure him on this, him and his closest
Sam: long-term advisors are all doubling down.
Sam: And like, first of all, they had no intention of dropping out anyway,
Sam: but with all these people trying to pressure him like this. Yeah,
Sam: absolutely. It's like, fuck you.
Sam: If there was any chance of that before there's zero.
Ivan: Now I have to say that.
Ivan: And I'm noticing that, you know, I think that there is a substantial group of
Ivan: people back at Biden that actually like this.
Sam: Yes.
Ivan: That is what's becoming evident as time is progressing.
Ivan: I think I think there was a there was a first phase of like just overall freak out.
Ivan: And as as the time has progressed and has and as Biden has actually done a number of things.
Ivan: publicly to allay concerns, the people who, who were, were maybe had some questions
Ivan: of Biden and saw him and they're like, and, but the, he was a guy,
Ivan: but then they were concerned.
Ivan: They went, they saw, no, what the fuck am I talking about? Yeah.
Ivan: He's the guy I voted. He's the guy I want. What the fuck are you guys talking about?
Sam: There was, I forget immediately after the Wisconsin rally on Friday,
Sam: there were a few talking heads on MSNBC. see i was listening while i was driving
Sam: home from work so i i don't know who was said what i probably was driving wait.
Ivan: Wisconsin was it a michigan.
Sam: Today today oh yeah you're right it was michigan i've been saying wisconsin
Sam: the whole damn show you should have corrected me earlier they're all the fucking
Sam: same those like states up there in the corner like a thing by the lakes you know i.
Ivan: Mean that's that's what biden needs to start telling these people they're all
Ivan: the fucking save you know he's.
Sam: Like whatever you know michigan wisconsin they're all.
Ivan: Up there on the lakes.
Sam: Yeah whatever they're all the same right maybe it should be.
Ivan: In canada anyway.
Sam: Yeah that'll do it,
Sam: Anyway, after the rally, they were talking about it, and one of the people basically
Sam: responded to, if there's one positive about all of this stuff,
Sam: all of the pressure on Biden about this and all of the criticism of this seems
Sam: to have woken Biden the fuck up.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: You know, they didn't say it in exactly those words, but like he is revived. He is energized.
Sam: He is mad. He is showing passion about what he's doing, you know,
Sam: and some people argue that there's still like, okay, there's some,
Sam: there are troubling signs about his ability and okay.
Sam: But like he has been at these various events showing like the active Biden that
Sam: people were attracted to before and showing the kind of qualities that you might want.
Sam: Now, it's still not enough for a bunch of people and it probably will never be.
Sam: But the other thing that's in play here, and I can't say this enough,
Sam: the way things are structured.
Sam: The only way you replace Biden is if either Biden dies or Biden actually wants to leave.
Sam: And right now he does not want to leave. And the events of the last three weeks
Sam: have made him want to stay even more.
Sam: You know, I don't think Biden's going, Biden's going anywhere.
Sam: I, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but right now I don't think Biden's going anywhere.
Ivan: I don't think, I don't, I don't think so either. Unless he has some major health event or something.
Sam: Right, right. Now, that's the one caveat I'll say. And a lot of people who are
Sam: really pushing that we need to replace Biden,
Sam: part of that narrative is like, hey, that thing at the debate is not going to
Sam: be a one-off. It is going to happen again.
Sam: It's only a question of when. and if you
Sam: had another major meltdown i could
Sam: see things going downhill fast because like he's trying to rehabilitate after
Sam: that one bad event and as long as every time he comes on he does great then
Sam: maybe he can survive if he has another sort of meltdown where everybody is like Like.
Ivan: Well, all he has to do is like, look, if he, you know, man, people let, yeah.
Sam: Let alone another health event of an entirely different type.
Sam: Like if he has a heart attack or whatever, a completely different story.
Ivan: You know, shit. I still remember the, the meltdown people had when Hillary passed out.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: I mean, I'm just, you know,
Ivan: I mean, you know, I was looking back, but there's been a number of candidates
Ivan: that on the trail have had over history medical events.
Ivan: I think if I remember correctly, Lyndon Johnson, okay, in the 64 campaign had a really hard attack.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, he did. Okay.
Ivan: And so he was very, I mean, or it wasn't.
Sam: Oh, wait. I was also thinking Eisenhower. Eisenhower had a heart attack a few
Sam: months before the election.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there has been, like, it's not like we have not been,
Ivan: let me check, because I think, I thought.
Sam: I think it was Eisenhower, not Johnson, who had the heart attack.
Ivan: I thought Lyndon was appendicitis. I think, no, but I think Johnson had appendicitis, I think it was.
Sam: Oh, okay.
Ivan: Something along those lines. And yeah, and like, I think Eisenhower had a heart attack.
Ivan: tag so so you you know you've had hillary
Ivan: had that cold oh my god do you
Ivan: remember that time that hw bush vomited all
Ivan: over the uh yes yes the prime minister of
Ivan: japan yes i mean that was
Ivan: yeah i mean we have had like
Ivan: fuck w i mean didn't
Ivan: w choke on a pretzel yeah
Ivan: in the oval office this i i
Ivan: don't know you know we've had so many medical
Ivan: scares with with the
Ivan: president fuck trump almost died from covid right you
Ivan: know so i'm just like i don't know i i'm just like is it possible that biden
Ivan: could have a major medical event yes it's pot i mean it's possible yeah.
Sam: And that That changes everything again.
Ivan: I mean, but here's, and I think, but I think that what it reveals maybe with
Ivan: a lot of people is that they're not comfortable with Kamala as a vice president.
Ivan: Because I keep, in my head, I have always been, since this ticket got put together,
Ivan: I'm like, yeah, I know Joe's old, but hell, we got Kamala, so we're good.
Sam: Right. If something happens to Joe, we're all set.
Ivan: We're all set. What's the problem? You know, that's been my thought the entire
Ivan: time. And I guess I keep thinking that a lot of these people don't want Kamala.
Sam: Well, but also, I guess there is the concern of if you have somebody who's not
Sam: mentally with it, but not dead, you don't get the automatic transition to the vice president.
Sam: And the process of using the 25th
Sam: Amendment against them is untested and contentious and blah, blah, blah.
Sam: But, you know, I look at that as well and say, like,
Sam: We now know, in retrospect, Ronald Reagan was not really with it for most of his second term.
Ivan: No. And you know what? And Reagan, listen, this is the thing.
Ivan: People are acting like, oh, we've never had these age and health concerns, blah, blah, blah.
Ivan: Man, that 84 campaign, that's all that everybody was. One of the things that
Ivan: everybody was talking about.
Ivan: Biden was old, his health, he's still there.
Sam: Reagan.
Ivan: I mean, Reagan, whatever. Who the fuck did I say?
Sam: See, you did it too. Look at you.
Ivan: Fuck. Jesus. Whatever. Exactly. Reagan. Yeah.
Ivan: You know, I mean, they were all like, you know, worried. I mean,
Ivan: that was like the biggest thing in that campaign.
Ivan: And fucking Reagan went one in a landslide.
Sam: Well, and then also like just for the presidency itself, and you can argue this
Sam: is not an ideal situation, but of course, it's not just him.
Sam: He's got an entire staff. He's got a cabinet.
Sam: Lots of negative things to say about the Reagan administration,
Sam: but they kept everything running. You know, it's not like the.
Ivan: Cabinet was not incompetent. I mean, you know.
Sam: You know, they did what they needed to do. They continued to execute Reagan's
Sam: policy agenda, whether or not.
Ivan: Whether you agreed with it or not.
Sam: Yes. So like, I feel like these are all things that could be dealt with. Like, is it ideal?
Sam: No, absolutely not. And I've said also, like, you know, do I really believe
Sam: if Biden is elected, he's going to go through the whole four years?
Sam: Maybe not. I actually think the ideal scenario would be to for him to resign
Sam: like the day after he gets to the two year mark to let let Kamala have a nice
Sam: head start for the next election, you know, but.
Ivan: But that's of course. But listen, here is one thing I will say,
Ivan: you know, right, that also we talk about, you know, having cogent discussions on on policy.
Ivan: Yeah, look, Biden at this age.
Ivan: Has far more intellect in terms of complex matters than Reagan did back then.
Sam: Oh, yeah. Despite being older than Reagan was back then.
Ivan: Despite being way older than Reagan at this point.
Ivan: Yeah. So that's why I'm like, I'm like, well, you know, he's not cognitively there or whatever.
Ivan: I'm like, yeah, look, you don't go through a fucking press conference,
Ivan: a NATO meeting. all of this shit that he just went through and are just,
Ivan: they're like a blubbering idiot. You can't fake through all of that.
Ivan: You could fake some of it, but you can't fake all that.
Sam: Well, and you can argue like, what else would they say? But there were interviews
Sam: with a number of the world leaders who were asked specifically,
Sam: what do you think about Joe Biden's mental state?
Sam: And they were, they all said positive things about how great he was, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: And I, I get the argument of like, well, what were they going to say?
Sam: Well, no, Biden wasn't with it. Like, yeah, but still, you know,
Sam: that you, you could sort of dodge the question.
Sam: I didn't hear them dodging the question. No, I heard them like praising him.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: So the point, the point is though, like at the end of all of this,
Sam: I think we are still somewhat in limbo because the people who are calling for
Sam: Joe Biden to go away have not given up yet.
Sam: But Joe Biden is still like, I'm not going anywhere.
Ivan: Listen i know that listen there there is no limbo he's not releasing his delegates.
Sam: No and i want to say i want to say too like the you said michigan not wisconsin
Sam: the michigan rally this afternoon he was in detroit specifically that.
Ivan: You got the right city wow.
Sam: Yeah i'm impressive i know i know what i'm talking about i fuck.
Ivan: You press it you got command of you got command of all your knowledge you know things.
Sam: My faculties are with me i know the
Sam: city it is detroit in
Sam: the great state of wisconsin yes yeah right
Sam: anyway anyway like this rally was
Sam: the best performance from joe biden since the state of the union yeah he was
Sam: he was and you cannot yeah okay the rallies you you have the the teleprompter
Sam: he's it's a speech it's not completely impromptu but he did the impromptu thing
Sam: at the press conference the day before, right?
Sam: But as a speech, this was rousing.
Sam: He was energetic. He was active. He was passionate.
Sam: Also, I heard- Funny, but the thing that was also mentioned,
Sam: and this one I do remember, it was Chris Hayes on MSNBC, said that this was
Sam: actually the first really clear to him anyway,
Sam: articulation of the the Biden campaign because what he did is he had three clear themes.
Sam: In the speech that he gave. Number one was accomplishments that he's done in
Sam: his administration so far and really banging them home, going through the list.
Sam: We've done this, we've done this, we've done this, and here's why it's good.
Sam: And here's why it has affected you in a positive way.
Sam: Number two was an actual forward-looking list of what we will do in a second term.
Sam: Because people have criticized Biden in the past for just looking backward and not forward.
Sam: So it was a whole bunch of like, yeah, here are things we're going to do.
Sam: Here's a policy wishlist.
Sam: Now, whether or not any of them are realistic completely depends,
Sam: even if he wins, what happens in Congress, blah, blah, blah,
Sam: all kinds of other stuff.
Sam: But the point was articulating a vision. And here are the things we would do
Sam: if you put us in power for another term.
Sam: And then third, Donald Trump is dangerous and articulating why and directly
Sam: Directly attacking Donald Trump on all of the key issues you can imagine on,
Sam: you know, he's a criminal,
Sam: he's a danger for foreign policy, he's a danger for democracy.
Sam: He's, you know, all of the things that you would think about and going directly
Sam: at him on all of these things, including various things where Donald Trump himself
Sam: has been confused about the facts.
Sam: He went after Donald Trump about the shark versus electrocution thing.
Sam: He went after Donald Trump.
Sam: It was pointed, direct attacks on Donald Trump in a way that we've rarely seen Joe Biden do before.
Sam: And it's also one of the things that people have criticized Biden for is not
Sam: directly attacking Trump.
Sam: And so he did that absolutely. Absolutely. So it is a it is a really I'll tell you one.
Ivan: Thing that is a positive. Sam, you do realize and I think Trump at this point
Ivan: has to be seething that that that that Biden has taken away the spotlight from him.
Sam: Yes. Yeah. And now we've got the we've got the Republican convention coming up in a few days.
Ivan: But forget about the election. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But but Biden has completely
Ivan: dragged away the spotlight from him.
Sam: Well and for the first part of that i mean we talked about like trump at the
Sam: golf course was probably very much intentional just because of the general advice
Sam: when you when your opponent is self-destructing let them get out of the way and let them right.
Ivan: But that's not what's happening in the recently.
Sam: What's not what's happening now and and i want to throw this out about polls
Sam: as well let me let me pull up the summary i put on the curmudgeons course slack earlier earlier.
Sam: It's way earlier today.
Sam: There was really a lot of conversation on the curmudgeons corner slack this time around.
Ivan: Oh my God.
Sam: Like normally we share a few articles. We have a couple little discussions,
Sam: but like there was like hours of back and forth with people debating.
Sam: And I'm, I'm looking for one thing I posted like middle of the day sometime.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. No, I was struggling to find them. Like, holy shit.
Ivan: Where the hell? Good Lord. Lord, we really averaged it out today.
Ivan: And I was working. I was at meetings.
Ivan: I even interviewed a guy.
Sam: Yeah. Okay, here we go. I found it.
Sam: And I had noted something about this on the Slack a couple days ago,
Sam: but it's more real this point.
Sam: If you look at the national polls, because I've got the state poll thing,
Sam: and like I said, tipping point has moved quite a bit.
Sam: But state polls are slower. You get fewer of them and it takes a while for them
Sam: to incorporate into averages, blah, blah, blah.
Sam: So like you really need to look at the state polls to understand the electoral
Sam: college, but to get a sense of the ebb and flow, national polls will get you a lot faster.
Sam: And so right before the debate, Biden had just barely pulled ahead of Trump
Sam: for the first time since 538 had been tracking. They only started tracking like
Sam: six months, not even six months ago.
Sam: But Biden's peak was being ahead by 0.3% on June 23rd.
Sam: And the debate was what, the 27th?
Ivan: Something like that. Yeah, something like that.
Sam: Something like that anyway that was
Sam: his peak after the debate it moved
Sam: to trump ahead by 2.5 so
Sam: that's a total move of 2.8 percent and he got to that 2.5 on july 5th but since
Sam: and first of all 2.5 percent like it's not it's not 10 right it's not 15 it's
Sam: not even like seven right you know It's not even five.
Sam: It's- Still within the margin of error.
Ivan: Basically.
Sam: It's a 2.8%. Yeah, for a margin, because like, yeah, you're right.
Sam: It's still within margin of error.
Ivan: Yeah.
Sam: Because when they give a margin of error on a poll, and it's usually three or
Sam: 4%, it's on, you know, Trump has 45.
Sam: Right. Not on the margin between the candidates. The margin of error on the
Sam: margin is actually usually about twice as much.
Ivan: Right.
Sam: So like 6% or something. Yeah. But anyway, it's within margin of error.
Sam: Now, people argue like, yeah, but the sort of range of wiggle room that the
Sam: candidates have when you remove everybody who's definitely made up their minds is only about 5%.
Sam: So two and a half is actually pretty big in that context. But here's the thing.
Sam: It started to reverse. July 5th was Trump's peak there. It's now back down to Trump ahead by 1.9.
Sam: And I think there have been a number of close national polls.
Sam: There've been a number of polls showing Biden leading.
Sam: There are a number of polls where they've pointed out specifically,
Sam: they did a poll now and a poll before the debate, and it shows no change and
Sam: or Biden actually even ahead of where they were before the debate.
Sam: I still prefer looking at the aggregated average, But things have started moving
Sam: back in Biden's direction again.
Sam: And so will this continue or not? Who the fuck knows?
Sam: You know, but one of the people on our Commissions Corner Slack,
Sam: Peter, who co-hosted a couple weeks ago, said something similar to what Yvonne
Sam: said earlier, that this, all of this drama may,
Sam: may, may actually end up helping Biden.
Sam: Biden in the end, if he, if he gets through it, like if it damages him so much
Sam: that he actually does drop out whole different story.
Sam: But if he is now showing his passion, showing his determination,
Sam: standing up to all the people who are trying to like knock him out of the race
Sam: and basically saying, you know, they can't get me down. I'm going to do my damn job.
Sam: I'm going to continue you, blah, blah, blah. He actually is looking strong out of that.
Ivan: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Sam: Like the whole thing out of debate, the debate, who, who is the quote on this?
Sam: Oh, this was from George Conway posted.
Sam: I wonder if in a weird way, the
Sam: internecine battle among Democrats could actually end up helping Biden.
Sam: His problem at the debate was ultimately he looked weak, but standing up to
Sam: the calls for him to stand down makes him look kind of ornery.
Sam: That's not necessarily a bad thing.
Ivan: Let me put it to you this way. Headline of Washington Post right now online.
Ivan: Yeah. Biden delivers newly fiery speech declaring Trump unfit to be president.
Ivan: Now, that doesn't sound weak.
Sam: Right. And so, now Bob responded to that.
Sam: That's disingenuous on Archimedes Core Slack. Bob responded,
Sam: that's just disingenuous.
Sam: The debate was no gaffe because he's very, Bob and several other people,
Sam: John as well on the Slack, are very worried because, you know.
Ivan: What if it happens again?
Sam: What if it happens again? What if this really is a sign of a progressive condition
Sam: that's only going to get worse and he can't handle it?
Sam: And if we don't replace him and it gets worse and worse and worse and there's
Sam: another incident, then we're completely done. There's no chance.
Sam: I mean, there's a lot of thought that it's already completely done.
Sam: He has no chance of winning.
Ivan: Oh, yeah. There's a lot of people saying that. But this is this is ridiculous
Ivan: horseshit to talk. I, I, I, I.
Sam: I mean, election, election graphs put some at 8%, which is low, but not zero.
Sam: And I, and actually if I have to do my gut feel, you know, Pete,
Sam: Pete predicted just a little while ago, also on our commissions course slack
Sam: is he thinks Biden is now actually set up for a comeback narrative.
Sam: And I, I actually, right now I'm thinking, I agree.
Sam: Like I, I don't have huge confidence, but I have some confidence and I feel
Sam: like right Right now, well...
Sam: partially this goes to like well what happens at the rnc next week like usually
Sam: candidates get a bump out of their convention but i'm like if they just show
Sam: themselves to be complete whack jobs they might not get a bump american.
Ivan: Carnage sam american carnage i.
Sam: Mean if they had a normal convention and seem sane they'll they'll probably
Sam: get a bump out of it but if the republicans because they've got like yeah they've have you.
Ivan: Seen the guest list at this fucking shit show.
Sam: I know the guest look at guest the guest list is crazy there are delegate guests.
Ivan: Looking we're not we're not licking guests nobody's looking nobody is licking any guests.
Sam: There are delegates going to this convention who are convicted January 6th people.
Sam: Like, you know, there is lots of opportunity for, for it to go nuts.
Sam: And so I have a big open question of, do they control this and like, keep it sane?
Sam: If they control it and keep it sane, they get a regular bounce out of it.
Sam: If they don't, they, they could get hurt by the convention.
Ivan: Sam, Sam, this is going to be, this is going to be like a regular Trump rally right now.
Ivan: That's what this is. Look at the people. I mean, the people that are organized
Ivan: that are all convicted felons.
Ivan: The fuck are you, you know, forget about the people attending.
Ivan: Who the hell are the organizers?
Ivan: This is like a fucking like mob meeting. oh.
Sam: And by the way i should say also this is intended to start monday right it starts
Sam: monday do i have the date right monday monday monday confirm i.
Ivan: Don't know i actually got startled while i was watching a a copa america soccer
Ivan: game okay by an ad for this and i it just the thing is that you know i'm watching
Ivan: this soccer game and then all of a sudden i hear trump yelling and And, you know,
Ivan: I'm like, what the fuck is this?
Ivan: I'm like, oh, the RNC Monday or whatever day. And I'm like, motherfucker,
Ivan: Jesus Christ, the thing startled me.
Ivan: I really, you know, so what day is it?
Sam: Yeah. So, so as, as we were recording 2.8 days from now.
Ivan: So, you know, who is the.
Sam: Uh, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, month. Yeah.
Ivan: What, what, what is the hit list of what is the, uh, primetime list of luminaries
Ivan: who will be speaking at this fucking.
Sam: I haven't looked it up. you tell me i.
Ivan: Don't fuck you the convention speaker list there we go uh in the shithole of
Ivan: milwaukee which by the way which he had complained.
Sam: Okay it it's it starts it where it starts july 15th that's monday right that's.
Ivan: Sun yeah monday.
Sam: Yes monday monday monday july 15th monday.
Ivan: Let's see who are the uh.
Sam: That's what i thought i just wanted to be sure while you're looking up speakers
Sam: i will say donald trump has said he will announce his vp candidate and he wants
Sam: to announce it on monday yeah.
Ivan: He's been listen he's been saying this for months.
Sam: Well yeah but the convention well the convention is starting he's not going
Sam: to hold it off fast that the what all the people People who are reading tea
Sam: leaves say it's going to be J.D.
Sam: Vance because they have the two speakers scheduled immediately before the slot
Sam: that's been penciled in for the VP candidate are Donald Trump Jr.,
Sam: who's been advocating for J.D.
Sam: Vance this whole time, and some local guy from Ohio that would be related to J.D. Vance.
Sam: So the tea leave readers say it's going to be J.D.
Sam: Vance, but it is Donald Trump, so they could be wrong. It could change up to the very last second.
Sam: So go ahead. Who else is talking?
Ivan: Well, it says here, nobody really has a good list.
Ivan: They are saying, though, that one of the featured speakers is going to be Governor Kristi Noem.
Ivan: That, I'm sure, will fire up people. Okay. You know, having the dog killer on first.
Ivan: Who is speaking at the Republican? Here we go. Reuters.
Ivan: David Sachs. I have no idea who this guy is. Yeah, he's an investor.
Ivan: Yeah. trent conaway does that ring a bell no.
Sam: Not at all i have no idea.
Ivan: Amber rose oh this one oh this was a hoot look i i you know i i have no problem
Ivan: with people doing only she is an only fan star,
Ivan: okay nothing wrong with it but i'm like
Ivan: amber rose a biracial millennium model the reality television personality who
Ivan: once dated rapper kanye west is making her art scene a few of the next week
Ivan: and yeah and they've got dana white the ufc guy who is about no idea,
Ivan: donald trump jr i mean
Ivan: he's gonna be all coked up as usual i you know well they don't i mean honestly
Ivan: nobody has a good speaker list of what the hell's gonna happen at this shit
Ivan: show is what i'm realizing right now i've looked through things and you know nobody knows,
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: So getting back to the point that I was making, I think if they go weird and
Sam: crazy at the Republican National Convention,
Sam: I could see Biden getting back to where he was before his speech before the
Sam: end of July in the polling averages.
Sam: damages um if and and
Sam: by the way getting back to where he was before is
Sam: still behind but i
Sam: could see him like getting back to where he was before so undoing whatever damage
Sam: happened from all this rigmarole assuming that he goes nowhere and continues
Sam: to because if he continues to insist he's not going anywhere there's nothing
Sam: they can do about it and at a certain point people have to realize that they're causing more damage.
Sam: Also, the deadline for doing anything about that is not the Democratic National Convention.
Sam: They are having to do a virtual roll call vote earlier to make sure they declare
Sam: an official candidate in time for the deadlines in all the states.
Sam: And I believe I heard earlier today that is scheduled for July 21st.
Sam: So at most, we really have like one more week of this shit eight.
Ivan: Days eight days.
Sam: Yeah yeah like so one way or another this this shit has to be wrapped up like
Sam: like if you get past the 21st the democrats have a legally a legally selected
Sam: nominee at that point and things become much much harder after So,
Sam: like, okay, let's continue this,
Sam: but, like, I mean, I'd rather you don't, but...
Ivan: Okay, by the way, I...
Ivan: Speaking of data we're talking about and how difficult this election is or not
Ivan: in third party candidates, I went to Ballotpedia to see where RFK Jr.
Ivan: is officially on the ballot. Okay. Okay. And according to Ballotpedia right
Ivan: now, he has, he's only on, he said he's on 22 ballots, but really officially
Ivan: he's only on four right now.
Ivan: And none of these matters. Illinois, New Mexico, New York, and Utah.
Ivan: None really matter. None of those matter. He, I did see that he filed for Pennsylvania recently.
Ivan: Um, so, but, but that, that's a, that's the only one that I saw additionally that he filed.
Ivan: Now it says here that, you know, yeah, they'll update it as filing daylands
Ivan: passes, you know, updates, but, but right now that's, he's only on four and,
Ivan: and none of these matter.
Ivan: And so a lot of those polls that are considering.
Sam: So are the other, the other, are the are the other ones are the other 18 that
Sam: he talks about ones where basically he's like we've submitted the paperwork
Sam: it's just not official yet or nothing.
Ivan: No no no as far as i can tell those are ones that he's targeting to do so but
Ivan: as far as i can tell the only one that he's done that i saw are those on are
Ivan: those four and that he filed for pennsylvania okay that that That's it,
Ivan: basically. That's all I could find.
Sam: Oh, I realized I didn't finish my prediction. I was like, if the Republicans go complete, yes, pain.
Sam: If the Republicans go nuts and just seem like completely insane at their convention,
Sam: I could see Biden catching up by the end of July in the poll averages.
Sam: If, on the other hand, the Republicans present as sane and like normal, you know,
Sam: Trumpy but as normal as you can make Trumpy and not like completely out of control
Sam: then I see us probably being then I see us probably being at about the same place by the end of I.
Ivan: Think it could be at the same it's just these conventions the effect that they've
Ivan: had on anything has diminished substantially you know.
Sam: Well and even in sort of the good old days of conventions the effect usually only it was.
Ivan: A short bounce a week or two yeah that's it.
Sam: Yeah it lasted a few weeks yeah two
Sam: two weeks maybe two three at most um
Sam: at most and then you basically reverted to where you
Sam: were before the convention i think at this point like just just like debates
Sam: i think the upside is really limited but there is potential downside so like
Sam: i don't think you're gonna get a big boost in anybody's numbers out of a convention,
Sam: but you might get damage if something bad happens at the convention.
Sam: That's my gut. I mean, maybe that depends on a little bit where you are.
Sam: Like maybe Biden could get a boost out of his convention if he overperforms. I don't know.
Ivan: Now, by the way, I have found, I did, now, Ballotpedia has, you know,
Ivan: those states I mentioned, okay?
Ivan: However, the New York Times has a different one about ballot access,
Ivan: and they say that RFK Jr. is also in Minnesota and Michigan.
Sam: Okay. And those two states do potentially matter.
Ivan: Those two states do potentially matter.
Sam: Michigan more than Minnesota.
Ivan: And that everything else is that he's trying to.
Sam: But even – let me say this too. One of the trends that's happened in recent
Sam: weeks, even before the debate but accelerated by the debate,
Sam: is states that were not swing states before suddenly becoming close.
Sam: Like Virginia was considered fairly safe Democratic.
Sam: Now, like my average on election graphs, has Biden just barely ahead.
Sam: Same thing for Minnesota. even like New Jersey, like there've been a couple
Sam: of coal, a couple of polls showing Trump ahead in New Jersey.
Sam: It's, I still don't have it as a swing state, but like it's been moving in Trump's
Sam: direction in recent polls as well.
Sam: That's one of the trends that's been happening is, you know,
Sam: states that had been safe blue are becoming a little bit less safe blue.
Sam: And that's something you'd want to see reversed as well as like,
Sam: like this election we've said forever, like, you know, So really,
Sam: we got Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Sam: That is the core to any Biden win.
Sam: And by the way, if he pulls those three together, but not Nebraska first congressional
Sam: district, you get a 269 to 269 tie.
Sam: And that would be nuts and probably end up in Donald Trump getting it in the
Sam: House of Representatives.
Sam: So he also really needs Nebraska's first. so like we should expect to see like
Sam: biden showing up in fucking omaha like omaha nebraska like.
Sam: He needs to go there. He needs to be spending some time there.
Sam: Do not sleep on Nebraska's first because you need it.
Sam: Unless things change completely and you bring in like Arizona or North Carolina or something again.
Sam: But at the moment, those seem out of reach. Or Georgia.
Ivan: Okay.
Sam: Any other last thoughts? Can we wrap this up? We're once again long.
Ivan: No, I think that's it. But by the way, I am finding that the information on
Ivan: this, on where he's on the ballot, is inconsistent.
Ivan: New York Times has, for example, Ballotpedia believes that he's in New York
Ivan: State, but not the New York Times, for example.
Ivan: Which says it's in progress. So it's really very fluid where he is right now.
Ivan: But I will say that the only consequential states that he's trying to,
Ivan: according to your times to get on the ballot is, you know, Minnesota,
Ivan: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada,
Ivan: um, and Georgia, North Carolina. So, but, but yeah.
Sam: We'll, we'll see where he ends up. And the other thing is, as we've always said,
Sam: like third parties tend to collapse as you go into the homestretch.
Ivan: Oh, very quickly.
Sam: You know, so he's already got less support than he did a couple months ago.
Sam: He's going to have even less a couple months from now.
Sam: And then you start asking, like, where are those people?
Sam: Like, you know, going back to an older theme,
Sam: the third party votes plus the undecideds are much larger than the margins in
Sam: all the swing states, including Pennsylvania, which which is the tipping point state right now.
Sam: Let me just give Pennsylvania as an actual data point here.
Sam: Bring up Pennsylvania. Hold on. Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
Sam: Pennsylvania, 6,500. Okay. Right now, Trump leads Pennsylvania by 4.9% in the margin.
Sam: It was basically tied in the middle of June.
Sam: Now Trump's ahead by 4.9%. But you add up third parties and undecided, that's 11%. What? 10.9.
Sam: So like, you know, the number of undecideds and third parties are still bigger
Sam: than the margin, even in a state like Pennsylvania.
Sam: So like a big part of things is going to be those people who,
Sam: for whatever reason, are on the fence or actively considering third parties.
Sam: How many of those stick with the third parties and how many of them end up breaking
Sam: to Trump or Biden and then what happens there?
Sam: And yeah, and, and I think like, yeah, and, and, and I think we just to circle
Sam: back before we finally close up, I think we are in a situation where,
Sam: you know, lots of people can be unhappy about it, but we got Biden.
Sam: Biden is not, he has to cooperate with any scenario that does not leave him
Sam: as the nominee and he is digging in and not considering leaving right now.
Sam: Now, if he has another major flub, incident, whatever, maybe that changes.
Sam: But absent that, we got Biden.
Ivan: We got Biden.
Sam: This is, you know, people have been, this last
Sam: few weeks of like media and democratic freak out about like everything is just
Sam: the latest symptom of this thing that we have have had for over a year where
Sam: everybody is like, really?
Sam: It's going to be Trump versus Biden again. We don't want either of these guys.
Ivan: I know.
Sam: Can we please have somebody else to pick from? And sorry, no,
Sam: it is what it is. You may not like it.
Sam: Like if in an ideal scenario, you can argue that Joe Biden should have like
Sam: a year and a half ago said he wasn't running and handed it over,
Sam: blah, blah, blah, maybe. But he didn't.
Sam: And Trump is running for his own reasons.
Ivan: Let me just say this. George Conway, the other recently, and he was,
Ivan: people misunderstood what he said.
Sam: Yes, about being retired on the beach or whatever.
Ivan: Yeah, I mean, what he was saying is that, you know, in an ideal scenario, and I agree with him.
Ivan: Yeah. You know, Joe Biden would be in this retirement with his family and just,
Ivan: you know, President Hillary Clinton would have been in office for her second
Ivan: term like right now and all of these things.
Ivan: But the reality is that,
Ivan: Biden ran in 2020. The candidate field was wide open.
Ivan: There was every candidate of every stripe of every kind, you know, you wanted.
Ivan: And, and I didn't even in the primary vote for Joe Biden, but I,
Ivan: and it wasn't because I didn't like Joe Biden.
Ivan: I love Joe Biden. I always liked Joe Biden. Damn it.
Ivan: But I, you know, I was thinking about the future and I'm like, you know, we.
Sam: Were both with kamala fans kamala let's pronounce it correct.
Ivan: Yeah let's go with kamala you know what the heck you know let's go with her
Ivan: come on you know this looks you know this is fine but but you know,
Ivan: hey most of the people pick joe and i and i was like to me it's the same thing
Ivan: like with her i'm like i mean i like joe too what the hell all right so you
Ivan: know that's the guy though that everybody picked i mean you guys want to go
Ivan: with the old white guy i mean i love the old i love joe he
Ivan: I mean, I love that old white guy.
Ivan: Okay. All right. So I'm, I'm good with that.
Ivan: And so like right now to me, I'm just like, guys, it wasn't my top choice either.
Ivan: When we went through this the first time, but everybody else didn't win.
Ivan: And guess what? He fucking beat Trump. Right. And by the way,
Ivan: everybody said that he wasn't going to beat him.
Sam: Yep.
Ivan: A lot of people didn't think he was going to pull it off. And he did.
Sam: Well and and like cross our
Sam: fingers maybe something like that happens i mean like a lot
Sam: of people think that you and i and others who speak like this are being delusional
Sam: and that it's it's inevitable that joe biden will will melt down again he will
Sam: fail and it'll be too late to recover and we should be changing courses right now yeah so you.
Ivan: Know i'm going and you know ed in our slack,
Ivan: quoting somebody that not none of us like all right but but that said something very wise mr.
Sam: Rumsfeld i believe.
Ivan: Yes it was rummy himself and
Ivan: let me see if i can find that vote ed
Ivan: so i may i'm gonna make you justice because you you you
Ivan: sent it in and i i i i was totally with
Ivan: you on this oh my god we've said a lot of man we really we really hammered this
Ivan: slack today say holy smokes jesus christ we gotta we gotta hang on hang on hang
Ivan: on there we go no no no why can't i find it now should.
Sam: I look too to help.
Ivan: Oh god uh help me you know with my senility like right now your.
Sam: Your biden-esque senility every everything's got to be biden-esque.
Ivan: Yes yes my my my my badge of honor you know you know where the heck is it here it is all.
Sam: Right you found it first go.
Ivan: Ed i thought biden was too old in 2020 i am the same age in pretty good health
Ivan: no that's not the one is it no no okay no you.
Sam: Found the wrong thing for mad Ed.
Ivan: I found a wrong Ed one. I'm sorry, Ed. What am I doing?
Sam: There's such a failure.
Ivan: I, yeah, well, you know, come on, Ed. We're here. It's a great quote.
Ivan: I'm not doing very well with this. You know, this is what happens at this age.
Sam: Wait, I went, I went too far back.
Ivan: So, oh, I was looking at the quote.
Sam: I was looking at the wrong place. Okay, go ahead. You did. Did you find it?
Ivan: No, I mean, no, I haven't found it, but I was going to try to by memory.
Sam: Okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait, don't do it by memory. We can do this.
Sam: Like, yeah, we can find it.
Ivan: We can do this like adults.
Sam: Yes. Sort of like,
Sam: Okay. Almost there. Almost there.
Ivan: Wow.
Sam: There we go. I've got it.
Ivan: Okay. Go ahead. Read it.
Sam: From Ed, who has often hosted the show or co-hosted it anyway.
Sam: Donald Rumsfeld, far from my favorite human being, was absolutely correct when
Sam: he said, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or
Sam: wish to have at a later time.
Sam: the democratic party chose their leader as
Sam: joe biden it's time to quit the bullshit and
Sam: campaign on issues djts on fitness and the need for a democratic congress amen
Sam: i i mean this is why like even if you believe a switch would be better and i
Sam: i don't i don't i i think like the switch which would be,
Sam: I think people are underestimating the downside of what it would take to switch
Sam: to a new candidate at this point.
Ivan: Totally. 100%.
Sam: Because it would be contentious. There'd be people with hurt feelings.
Sam: The people who want Biden would have their feelings hurt at best.
Sam: And even if you end up with somebody else, it seems like more people want Kamala
Sam: Harris than anybody else.
Sam: But even if you pick her, they'll people will be disappointed that it was her.
Sam: If you pick somebody else, certainly there'd be lots of people upset that it wasn't Harris.
Sam: I think there are major downsides of doing a switch at this point,
Sam: but like even without that, I, I feel like, look, the reality is,
Sam: at the moment. And from all indications, Joe and his team are digging in.
Sam: They are not thinking anything otherwise. And people pointed out,
Sam: of course they have to act like that because any sign of weakness would be,
Sam: they would immediately be interpreted as he's getting out and it would spiral.
Sam: So of course he has to like double down on this, uh, certainly publicly,
Sam: but like we would be getting leaks from his inner circle if if he was thinking
Sam: about like if if he was wavering blah blah oh.
Ivan: Yeah oh no oh it would be it would be leaking like a sieve.
Sam: Yeah so like the fact that we're not hearing that the most we've heard is that
Sam: there are some biden insiders who say that they've thought about a few things
Sam: they were polling some harris things to see what they they looked like.
Sam: But from everything I can tell from the reports, like those are lower level
Sam: people who are, you know, having some doubts thinking about it,
Sam: but Biden and his core group seem to be digging in.
Sam: And as long as that is true, then the longer this discussion goes on,
Sam: the more damaging it can be.
Sam: I mean, we talked about how maybe he'll get a bounce from just having pushed
Sam: through it, but it's still like, you know, at a certain point you have to say,
Sam: Say, okay, he's not going.
Sam: Pushing him further on it is hurting more than it's helping.
Sam: So the army you have time to get on board.
Ivan: Yep. Time to get on board.
Sam: You know, like I believe it was Bob who said we have a very short window to change.
Sam: And I'm like, no windows already closed.
Sam: Yeah. Closed a long time ago. Yep. Anything that we did now would be an act of violence.
Sam: It would be breaking the window back open. You know, the window is closed.
Sam: The window is already closed.
Sam: Anything that we do now would cause more damage than it would help.
Sam: And I know like a lot of people earnestly disagree with that and think like
Sam: if we did a switcheroo and suddenly had Harris at the Democratic Convention,
Sam: that would be great. And like, I like Kamala Harris.
Sam: I think she'd probably be a better candidate than Joe Biden if you had started that way.
Sam: But I think the act of changing itself would be harmful and hurt her chances and anything.
Sam: And, and of course you substitute Biden with anything, then all the attack dogs
Sam: are going to go after whoever's new anyway.
Sam: No, yeah, they're they're they're not that.
Sam: I think a lot of people have the idea that if you magically substitute Biden
Sam: with somebody else, that the Democrats are going to get a boost and all of a
Sam: sudden we'll be in much better shape.
Sam: And I just think that's hopium, as people are calling hopium.
Ivan: There is only one that showed that maybe that could be.
Ivan: And I'm saying maybe. Yep. Michelle Obama. But that's not happening.
Sam: Yes. She has said so many times she has no interest whatsoever in that.
Ivan: No, not one bit.
Sam: And I think there's some polling that shows that Harris might start out almost even with Joe Biden.
Sam: But anybody else other than Harris starts out in a worse position than Joe Biden.
Ivan: In a way worse position.
Sam: And yeah, so I guess we'll see by the time we next talk on this show.
Ivan: The RNC will be RNC.
Sam: We will have a Republican nominee. The RNC will have happened or be almost over.
Sam: If not over, I don't know.
Ivan: Somebody would, you know, somebody was, was making mention about all this drama
Ivan: around Biden said that and him getting, not getting the nomination,
Ivan: like some people, whatever.
Sam: Right.
Ivan: Making Trump nervous.
Sam: Who's making nervous? What, where some.
Ivan: People were saying that, I don't know if it's true or not, but that,
Ivan: that, that Trump wasn't enjoying watching.
Ivan: He was like, could they take nomination from me?
Sam: Oh, well, but also I've heard that the, the Trump camp actually,
Sam: the Trump camp is amongst the folks that think Biden is their easiest target.
Sam: So there, they, they don't want the scenarios where they swap out bride Biden.
Sam: And I'm not sure, like, I think it's more.
Ivan: I, I, I, I, well, look, listen, I really, you know, taking any analysis from
Ivan: the Trump camp is, is like,
Ivan: taking all these drug-addled idiots i mean i just whatever i i don't.
Sam: Know yeah anyway the rnc goes through thursday so it will be done by the time
Sam: we record again which will you know so anyway we'll know a lot more all.
Ivan: Right let's end this like we're done.
Sam: We're done we're done and we've gone over long enough ivan i i suggest we skip
Sam: the the slack thing we've talked about slack so much already this show.
Sam: Like the, the feature that people could have missed on the Slack or you have
Sam: something you really want to say.
Sam: Okay. Well, let me, let me do the thing. Go to curmudgeons-corner.com.
Sam: Find out how to contact us.
Sam: Look at our archives, look at transcripts and go to Patreon to give us money.
Sam: And if you give various amounts of money at Patreon, we'll, we'll send you a postcard.
Sam: We'll send you a mug. We'll mention you on the show and at $2 a month them more
Sam: or if you just ask please ask we would love to have more people on there we
Sam: will invite you to our curmudgeon's corner slack where as we've been saying
Sam: we've had robust discussion on the biden thing all week long what else you want
Sam: you want to highlight something.
Ivan: German navy to replace asian eight inch floppy drives.
Sam: With an emulated.
Ivan: Solution for its anti submarine frigate so apparently their their anti-sub frigates
Ivan: still rely on the good old 8-inch floppy in order to load some information and
Ivan: like run systems and whatever but apparently they're going to be able to do
Ivan: this do away with it with some kind of emulation.
Sam: Okay excellent 8-inch.
Ivan: Floppies I had 8-inch floppies I love 8-inch floppies.
Sam: Don't copy that floppy copy that floppy yeah you don't remember that that was
Sam: a whole advertising campaign about.
Ivan: The software pirating anti-software pirating thing.
Sam: Yeah. Yeah. Don't copy that floppy. It was a whole thing.
Ivan: I, I fuck, I copied the floppies.
Sam: Yes. I think we all did.
Ivan: I think we all did. All right. We're done.
Sam: Yeah. Okay. And one other thing I want to say, you know, this episode we were
Sam: testing doing a live stream.
Sam: The reason I was doing this was because like recently I listened to the election
Sam: night live stream we did in 2020 and it was actually kind of fun.
Sam: We had a whole bunch of people on and it was fun. And so I wanted to test the
Sam: technology, see if we could do it well. and this worked really well.
Sam: I did send the link to our curmudgeons corner Slack and also to a group text
Sam: with my family, but absolutely nobody showed up to watch the live stream.
Sam: It will be on YouTube after we finish, but yeah, no, nobody showed up.
Sam: We, we, we had, you could have seen us live video.
Sam: You could have chatted with us while we were like doing a thing.
Sam: I don't, you know, maybe we'll do this again.
Sam: Maybe we won't. I don't know. Like if, if anybody's interested let
Sam: us know and but certainly like i don't
Sam: know like even election night i would love to do it on election night
Sam: but depending what's happening with my wife's race i might have to be at a victory
Sam: party somewhere or something instead so right i might not be able to do a live
Sam: stream of the election so we'll
Sam: see anyway thanks everybody for joining us stay safe have a good week.
Sam: Enjoy the Republican National Convention, I guess, and enjoy any additional
Sam: drama around what happens with Joe Biden that happens in the coming week and
Sam: any other news that's interesting.
Sam: Anyway, goodbye.
Ivan: Bye.
Sam: Oh now i have a concurrent viewer is it you oh.
Ivan: With me i was just.
Sam: Just testing it.
Ivan: To see how it worked.
Sam: Okay and with that it's i'm gonna hit stop and goodbye and all that stuff bye yvonne Bye.