WEBVTT 00:00:00.010 --> 00:00:02.910 Well you seem uh dressed. 00:00:02.910 --> 00:00:06.770 Up or is that like you just haven't done laundry. 00:00:06.770 --> 00:00:13.570 Well remember i need i i only had button-down shirts left and i needed uh so oh. 00:00:13.570 --> 00:00:16.410 So you didn't do laundry so now you are down to the button does. 00:00:16.410 --> 00:00:23.450 I i started i started laundry but the stuff's in the dryer right now so and 00:00:23.450 --> 00:00:28.030 like i i was gonna finish the laundry but then this happened and so i'm wearing 00:00:28.030 --> 00:00:30.890 shorts and a button down shirt. It's just nice. 00:00:31.690 --> 00:00:32.130 Nice. 00:00:33.070 --> 00:00:36.270 Okay. Let me, let me kick this off. Okay. 00:00:36.350 --> 00:00:42.070 So, well, there's a whole show recorded that Yvonne and I did Friday evening 00:00:42.070 --> 00:00:48.450 us time, but then Saturday afternoon us time, Donald Trump got shot. 00:00:49.210 --> 00:00:56.210 So we are recording a, uh, an addendum, I guess that we're putting at the beginning of the show here. 00:00:56.310 --> 00:00:59.590 And then we'll, we'll play the show we had recorded after this 00:00:59.590 --> 00:01:02.690 it was already a long show this is going to be longer but i 00:01:02.690 --> 00:01:06.510 i think we're only gonna i don't know i i won't say how long we'll go we'll 00:01:06.510 --> 00:01:12.910 go whatever we need and we are still in sort of the uh it is about two utc on 00:01:12.910 --> 00:01:17.950 sunday july 14th about what has it been four hours since this happened maybe 00:01:17.950 --> 00:01:20.030 five it's been it's been a few hours. 00:01:20.030 --> 00:01:21.290 Yeah yeah and. 00:01:21.290 --> 00:01:26.630 So we We are still in the realm where there's incomplete information. 00:01:27.290 --> 00:01:28.730 We don't know everything. 00:01:29.430 --> 00:01:32.570 Let me try to summarize what we know right now. 00:01:34.550 --> 00:01:38.190 Basically, well, what was visible at the thing at the time was, 00:01:38.390 --> 00:01:42.070 you know, Donald Trump was giving a speech. He was a couple minutes in. 00:01:42.330 --> 00:01:47.330 All of a sudden, he grabs his ear and then falls to the ground or pulls down 00:01:47.330 --> 00:01:51.550 to the ground, something like that. And then Secret Service swarms him. 00:01:51.730 --> 00:01:55.910 A minute or so later, they pull him up and evacuate him. 00:01:56.090 --> 00:02:00.270 He does a fist pump, but he's got blood on his face. 00:02:01.110 --> 00:02:08.270 As we have learned more, it seems that there was a gunman who climbed up onto 00:02:08.270 --> 00:02:13.430 the roof of a building that was right outside of the Secret Service perimeter for this event, 00:02:13.550 --> 00:02:19.610 so it was not a roof that had been checked and occupied by Secret Service or anything like that. 00:02:20.370 --> 00:02:24.510 And there, Donald Trump was grazed by a bullet. 00:02:24.670 --> 00:02:29.030 The shooter was killed by secret service after he started shooting. 00:02:29.170 --> 00:02:35.010 There was one sort of event attendee that was shot in the head and killed. 00:02:35.210 --> 00:02:40.270 And I've seen mixed reports yet, whether there were one or two other attendees 00:02:40.270 --> 00:02:45.410 injured who are in, you know, are, who are being hospitalized and treated for 00:02:45.410 --> 00:02:46.950 injuries that are fairly serious. 00:02:46.950 --> 00:02:51.230 I saw one report that one of at least one person was shot in the hand or arm. 00:02:51.890 --> 00:02:55.910 It's one or two. The last report I saw were two critically injured. 00:02:56.430 --> 00:03:01.290 Yeah, I have. I've heard both one or two. Two was the thing I heard most recently 00:03:01.290 --> 00:03:05.510 in terms of people who are injured but not dead at this point. 00:03:06.830 --> 00:03:09.850 And I guess that's the high level. 00:03:09.970 --> 00:03:13.630 I mean, we don't yet have identification of who the shooter is. 00:03:13.630 --> 00:03:17.190 By the time you listen to this episode, maybe that will have happened. 00:03:17.250 --> 00:03:20.130 I presume that's going to happen in the next few hours. 00:03:20.230 --> 00:03:22.370 But as we're recording, we don't know that yet. 00:03:22.570 --> 00:03:25.290 You know, my prediction almost came true. 00:03:26.090 --> 00:03:26.850 Which one? 00:03:27.770 --> 00:03:28.590 Which one? 00:03:28.710 --> 00:03:31.930 You predicted heart attack. This isn't quite a heart attack. 00:03:32.230 --> 00:03:34.490 I didn't predict the method. He would die. 00:03:36.170 --> 00:03:40.050 Oh, well, and let's be clear here, too. 00:03:40.950 --> 00:03:46.830 His ear was grazed. We were an inch away from. 00:03:46.870 --> 00:03:50.510 I mean, it was like two inches, listen, two inches to the right and he was dead. 00:03:50.850 --> 00:03:58.070 Yeah. Yes. And we would be having a, a different conversation right now. 00:03:58.150 --> 00:04:04.410 If that had been the case, even as it is, you know, this is, yeah. 00:04:04.630 --> 00:04:08.450 You know, in this particular scenario, you 00:04:08.450 --> 00:04:11.630 have photographs of Donald Trump emerging 00:04:11.630 --> 00:04:16.170 emerging triumphant from the assassination attempt and you know this is going 00:04:16.170 --> 00:04:22.030 to be all over the rnc over the next week you've got a whole bunch of republicans 00:04:22.030 --> 00:04:27.110 basically saying hey this is because of all the democratic rhetoric about donald 00:04:27.110 --> 00:04:30.090 trump being a danger to democracy all this kind of stuff, 00:04:30.930 --> 00:04:37.050 which you know i to some degree i understand right no you know i don't. 00:04:37.050 --> 00:04:41.730 No no no i don't because they have been threatening violence against. 00:04:41.730 --> 00:04:42.450 Those that. 00:04:42.450 --> 00:04:48.970 Oppose them from day one. So, look, you can't go around and tell that you're 00:04:48.970 --> 00:04:51.750 going to round up all these people, that you're going to jail them, 00:04:52.070 --> 00:04:54.850 you're going to do what you have promised violence, 00:04:55.250 --> 00:05:00.570 okay, you've promised bloodshed, and then go and turn around and say, 00:05:00.630 --> 00:05:03.330 oh, you see, you guys, what are you doing? 00:05:03.330 --> 00:05:12.110 Well, yeah, all I mean is that if if someone truly believes that Donald Trump 00:05:12.110 --> 00:05:18.250 is an existential threat to American democracy, it is not a big leap to say, well, you. 00:05:19.490 --> 00:05:22.470 By any means necessary, you have to fight that, you know? 00:05:23.270 --> 00:05:27.130 Okay. Look, here is the thing. Is Donald threat? 00:05:27.710 --> 00:05:34.510 Is he such a threat? Yes. Is that the right way to try to end this threat right now? No, no. 00:05:34.610 --> 00:05:38.270 I think it makes it worse. Like it makes it worse. 00:05:38.870 --> 00:05:43.330 Yeah, it makes it worse. I mean, that was what I was like, damn it, man. 00:05:43.510 --> 00:05:47.130 I've said this repeatedly. Don't make this guy a martyr for God's sakes. 00:05:47.530 --> 00:05:53.530 Yeah. And this scenario, you essentially make him a martyr without actually killing him. 00:05:54.190 --> 00:05:58.590 And so later in the show that you're going to listen to, we talk about polls 00:05:58.590 --> 00:06:01.830 and the potential effects of the RNC and all this kind of stuff. 00:06:02.830 --> 00:06:05.290 This changes everything. That's all I'm saying. 00:06:05.950 --> 00:06:12.030 Oh, God. Come on. Look, look, look. Oh, come on. 00:06:12.570 --> 00:06:15.790 Well, I don't mean permanently. I mean, I don't mean permanently. 00:06:15.810 --> 00:06:21.790 I mean, the narrative over the next week is going to be dominated by this over. 00:06:21.790 --> 00:06:26.650 The next week. Look, listen, now I will say this. Another thing I said that was correct. 00:06:26.830 --> 00:06:30.250 I said that in two weeks something would happen and we completely forget about 00:06:30.250 --> 00:06:31.670 what the fuck happened at the debate. bait. 00:06:31.890 --> 00:06:41.110 Yes. I think, yeah, the narrative has now shifted away from Joe Biden and his 00:06:41.110 --> 00:06:43.490 issues, at least for the time being. 00:06:43.690 --> 00:06:47.890 I think this is going to dominate for at least a week, maybe two. 00:06:48.150 --> 00:06:54.130 I mean, obviously, if he was actually seriously injured, it would completely 00:06:54.130 --> 00:06:57.930 upend everything. everything but even with this it's a couple weeks. 00:06:57.930 --> 00:07:03.210 Listen i i will say this at being serious right now that yes, 00:07:04.390 --> 00:07:07.130 You know, we have been talking about the escalating rhetoric to violence. 00:07:07.290 --> 00:07:11.590 I mean, we had J6. Now we've, you know, we've had the Pelosi attack. We've had this. 00:07:11.750 --> 00:07:16.350 And honestly, I've been surprised there hasn't been more of this over the last 00:07:16.350 --> 00:07:18.730 couple of years. I mean, there have been a few events. 00:07:19.270 --> 00:07:24.010 Well, I thought it could be more, but we've had, we've had, I mean, 00:07:24.010 --> 00:07:25.170 we had the Scalise attack. 00:07:25.730 --> 00:07:31.130 We had, we had Nancy Pelosi. We had Scalise. We had, what's her name in Arizona? 00:07:31.210 --> 00:07:32.590 I keep blanking on her name. 00:07:32.830 --> 00:07:33.750 Gabby Giffords. 00:07:34.390 --> 00:07:37.470 Gabby Gifford. So we have had a number of things. 00:07:37.590 --> 00:07:43.350 I'm just surprised there haven't been more given how much this is and and that there hasn't. 00:07:43.370 --> 00:07:47.830 But but look, I mean, this is this is at that level. Let me tell you something. 00:07:47.970 --> 00:07:53.770 I, you know, I was joking about you because you were saying, 00:07:53.890 --> 00:07:56.010 oh, is Trump going to get a boost from this? 00:07:56.290 --> 00:08:00.330 And I'm like joking. I'm like, oh, well, should there be a, you know, 00:08:00.330 --> 00:08:03.310 should we root for a Biden attempt on Biden? Biden. 00:08:03.630 --> 00:08:05.570 Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope. 00:08:06.250 --> 00:08:09.230 I'm like, you know, if that's the way this works, I mean, I mean, 00:08:09.290 --> 00:08:10.190 you guys, that's what you're saying. 00:08:10.490 --> 00:08:14.570 Well, you know, you know, but, but, but the reality is, but, 00:08:14.630 --> 00:08:18.670 but more seriously, I'm worried that it is, that is going to, 00:08:18.710 --> 00:08:21.370 there is going to be a temp on Biden's life. 00:08:21.850 --> 00:08:28.270 Oh, I think I was telling my daughter, Amy, she asked my thoughts on this like about an hour ago. 00:08:28.870 --> 00:08:32.550 And I'm like, look, these things tend to like, 00:08:33.840 --> 00:08:34.620 prompt more. 00:08:35.020 --> 00:08:35.580 Yeah. 00:08:36.200 --> 00:08:40.940 You know, violence spurns violence. And so you're going to have, 00:08:40.940 --> 00:08:46.020 you know, you already have a bunch of Republicans blaming Democrats for this, blaming Biden for this. 00:08:46.400 --> 00:08:49.060 And, you know, there was. 00:08:49.060 --> 00:08:53.580 Already a Democrat, there was already a Republican basically saying that Biden ordered it. 00:08:53.700 --> 00:08:57.960 Yes. No, there were a bunch of this stuff like this has been going around and 00:08:57.960 --> 00:09:00.040 And to various levels of specificity. 00:09:00.060 --> 00:09:02.420 But you're right. At least one said that. 00:09:02.500 --> 00:09:06.440 But those statements are so. 00:09:07.660 --> 00:09:08.060 Inflammatory. 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:09.800 Irresponsible. Yes. 00:09:10.380 --> 00:09:13.860 And what you. I mean this is why you have spirals of violence. 00:09:14.160 --> 00:09:16.280 And once you have one thing happen. 00:09:17.480 --> 00:09:20.000 Then you're going to have two things. You're going to be like. 00:09:20.660 --> 00:09:24.620 On one hand you're probably going to have people saying they want to take revenge 00:09:24.620 --> 00:09:26.080 for this. Well they shot at Trump. 00:09:26.160 --> 00:09:30.340 Now I need to shoot at Biden. Or maybe some other Democrats, right? 00:09:30.460 --> 00:09:34.520 Like I know there are a lot of people worried about like people just taking 00:09:34.520 --> 00:09:37.080 revenge on random Democrats, 00:09:37.280 --> 00:09:42.460 like just, you know, for at whatever levels, not even necessarily even politicians, 00:09:42.660 --> 00:09:45.560 just the guy down the street that you know is a Democrat, right? Right. 00:09:45.640 --> 00:09:48.200 And so people are worried about that kind of stuff. 00:09:48.620 --> 00:09:54.360 Hopefully it won't happen. But like, this is how once you have one violent act, 00:09:54.620 --> 00:09:57.140 it's very easy to have another. 00:09:57.360 --> 00:10:02.260 And then once you have that second one, it's very easy to have a third and things can spiral. 00:10:02.560 --> 00:10:06.460 And so crossing fingers that everybody 00:10:06.460 --> 00:10:10.620 sort of stays calm and that doesn't happen, but it's clearly a risk. 00:10:10.620 --> 00:10:15.900 And so I wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised at all if there are more attempts 00:10:15.900 --> 00:10:19.560 at something between now and the election. 00:10:20.080 --> 00:10:26.160 Now, an important thing to point out is we don't hear about like this one. 00:10:26.260 --> 00:10:33.340 We as actual global news, because it was very close to being successful, but like. 00:10:34.000 --> 00:10:38.680 Secret Service is investigating threats every single fucking day for both of 00:10:38.680 --> 00:10:42.260 these guys, you know, and for a bunch of other people, too. 00:10:42.420 --> 00:10:46.420 It's just like the environment right now. I mean, you've heard journalists talk 00:10:46.420 --> 00:10:51.560 about it that cover like politics that they get death threats all the time. 00:10:51.920 --> 00:10:56.620 And some of them get investigated. Some of them don't. We've had, 00:10:56.620 --> 00:10:59.780 you know, SCOTUS gets threats all the time, too. 00:11:00.520 --> 00:11:06.860 Congressional leaders do. You mentioned like Nancy Pelosi's husband, but like anybody in. 00:11:06.920 --> 00:11:08.700 Well, and that guy was targeting Nancy. 00:11:08.860 --> 00:11:13.420 Yeah. Yeah. And, and, you know, anybody in congressional leadership gets threats all the time. 00:11:13.480 --> 00:11:18.760 It's like part of being in the business of politics above a certain level. 00:11:19.280 --> 00:11:25.680 And that's unfortunate, but true. And like, luckily, most of the time it doesn't 00:11:25.680 --> 00:11:28.880 actually lead to anything, but sometimes it does. 00:11:29.780 --> 00:11:33.160 I think I think we would be like if 00:11:33.160 --> 00:11:36.060 like if if it's bad 00:11:36.060 --> 00:11:39.060 enough as it is if Donald Trump actually had been seriously 00:11:39.060 --> 00:11:42.500 injured or killed I think things would 00:11:42.500 --> 00:11:45.660 be so much worse I mean on the one hand it's like you'd 00:11:45.660 --> 00:11:48.620 be like well he was an existential threat you sort of eliminated 00:11:48.620 --> 00:11:52.320 the threat isn't that better no because of 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:57.160 the reaction that would happen after something like that happened there's no 00:11:57.160 --> 00:12:02.860 way it would end up being positive it's just like that that's like it's like 00:12:02.860 --> 00:12:09.980 textbook how do you start a cycle of violence you know so i don't know i. 00:12:09.980 --> 00:12:15.560 Mean look the president went and gave a brief statement answered a question regarding this. 00:12:15.560 --> 00:12:16.520 Yeah very. 00:12:16.520 --> 00:12:21.240 Intelligently where he was like look he he said that he's got he's got his own 00:12:21.240 --> 00:12:26.380 opinions but he He doesn't have the facts and, you know, he's going to wait to get the facts and, 00:12:27.320 --> 00:12:33.120 But I mean, this is I as much as I may be making some jokes about this, 00:12:33.220 --> 00:12:37.720 I felt I felt this this really churned my stomach. 00:12:37.800 --> 00:12:43.580 I mean, this was just it's I don't care how much I dislike him. I wasn't this. 00:12:43.640 --> 00:12:48.900 This wasn't a a high five moment of any kind. I mean, you know, we would have been dead. 00:12:49.020 --> 00:12:53.480 I realize that I just that wouldn't that wouldn't have been just because I predicted 00:12:53.480 --> 00:12:56.820 it doesn't mean I'm going to be happy about it. Even if I know, 00:12:56.880 --> 00:13:03.040 I understand, you know, I just, I'm not, I'm not pro, I am not pro assassination. 00:13:03.780 --> 00:13:08.080 Right. There's a big difference between like he drops dead of a heart attack 00:13:08.080 --> 00:13:14.380 versus, you know, someone shoots him in the head, you know, in terms of everything 00:13:14.380 --> 00:13:16.360 that would proceed from that. 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:21.540 It's it, and it is because of what you said that, you know, this kind of like 00:13:21.540 --> 00:13:25.260 violent, violent escalation we've already had. 00:13:25.640 --> 00:13:29.060 a significant uptick in the political violence in 00:13:29.060 --> 00:13:31.700 this nation and this is not a 00:13:31.700 --> 00:13:39.640 good thing yeah no it's just not you know so you know the guy did apparently 00:13:39.640 --> 00:13:45.080 what i understood is he fired adam with an ar-15 i will say this i'm going to 00:13:45.080 --> 00:13:50.760 speculate that he may now want trump of assault weapons ban i. 00:13:50.760 --> 00:13:52.060 I don't think so. 00:13:52.060 --> 00:13:57.300 Because because trump is no no no because trump is inconsistent consistent that way he. 00:13:57.300 --> 00:14:02.180 Is inconsistent but i think that's something that he knows would. 00:14:02.180 --> 00:14:06.360 No no no but but remember trump is listen trump is selfish but. 00:14:06.360 --> 00:14:12.760 Remember after vegas he was pushing all kinds of gun control stuff and then got shut down in a week. 00:14:12.760 --> 00:14:15.740 Yeah but but okay yeah yeah yeah but this time 00:14:15.740 --> 00:14:18.900 they shot him well yes remember that i 00:14:18.900 --> 00:14:26.200 i i think that i mean look if a positive well i would honestly if nothing else 00:14:26.200 --> 00:14:31.640 happens if we would come out and say we need an assault weapons ban i i would 00:14:31.640 --> 00:14:36.080 be like oh thank god because that will save a lot of lives i. 00:14:36.080 --> 00:14:39.880 Think that's unlikely i think instead he's going to be all about the blame game. 00:14:39.880 --> 00:14:44.760 I i think it's um it's a so so it's i think it's unlikely he's. 00:14:44.760 --> 00:14:49.220 Got he's gonna blame democrats he i he may end up like another thing that's 00:14:49.220 --> 00:14:55.580 happening here I like I just saw like a map of like where the roof was that 00:14:55.580 --> 00:15:00.160 the shooter was on relative to where the stage was. 00:15:00.160 --> 00:15:01.980 And honestly. 00:15:01.980 --> 00:15:03.000 You look at that, 00:15:04.420 --> 00:15:08.040 And really, they didn't cover that building? 00:15:08.940 --> 00:15:12.820 It's like, what is going on there, right? There were also reports, 00:15:12.940 --> 00:15:18.000 there was an interview of a witness by the BBC who was near that building who 00:15:18.000 --> 00:15:24.080 says they saw the shooter crawling up onto that roof with a rifle and tried 00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:28.260 to get the attention of the local police and the Secret Service. 00:15:28.440 --> 00:15:32.600 And the local police were like, basically, I don't know, what are you talking 00:15:32.600 --> 00:15:35.700 about? And that was a couple of minutes before the actual shooting. 00:15:35.820 --> 00:15:41.180 So I think there's going to be a big look into what went on with presidential 00:15:41.180 --> 00:15:44.900 security, because obviously there was a failure here or multiple failures here, 00:15:44.980 --> 00:15:46.220 or this wouldn't have happened. 00:15:46.220 --> 00:15:49.020 and and so and 00:15:49.020 --> 00:15:51.800 i guarantee you of course they are 00:15:51.800 --> 00:15:55.440 going to beef up that security from now through forever 00:15:55.440 --> 00:15:58.840 at least through the election for for trump biden 00:15:58.840 --> 00:16:02.100 kamala whoever trump's vp ends up being uh 00:16:02.100 --> 00:16:05.200 perhaps others as well because you know 00:16:05.200 --> 00:16:08.300 there's clearly a threat environment here 00:16:08.300 --> 00:16:14.900 and clearly whatever they had in place for this was not adequate and it looks 00:16:14.900 --> 00:16:19.460 like in this case it was sort of they had a perimeter but there were buildings 00:16:19.460 --> 00:16:26.680 right outside the perimeter within range of rifles and well. 00:16:26.680 --> 00:16:29.960 The thing is that also i mean i'm surprised because there was, 00:16:30.810 --> 00:16:33.650 I mean, they were obviously covering roofs and looking at it. 00:16:33.670 --> 00:16:38.310 There was a sniper. That's the one that it seems, according to the reports, took out the shooter. 00:16:38.710 --> 00:16:45.590 Yes, a sniper did. And what it looks like from, from, from what I understand 00:16:45.590 --> 00:16:51.510 and from looking at this map as well, well, I can't tell exactly. 00:16:51.510 --> 00:16:54.590 exactly it's one of these things where there was you know 00:16:54.590 --> 00:16:57.770 a roof with a peak and this the 00:16:57.770 --> 00:17:01.170 sniper and the secret service at the venue had 00:17:01.170 --> 00:17:05.390 a view of one side of the roof but not the other and the other guy crawled up 00:17:05.390 --> 00:17:10.650 to the top right and so just peaked out over the top but other pictures i've 00:17:10.650 --> 00:17:13.450 seen look like it with the area he was on was a flat roof because there have 00:17:13.450 --> 00:17:20.810 been pictures published of like the dead shooter on the roof after this yeah but you can tell the. 00:17:20.810 --> 00:17:23.110 The The roof is at a. 00:17:23.110 --> 00:17:25.290 Slight incline. 00:17:25.290 --> 00:17:28.110 It's not a completely flat roof. You don't get a completely flat roof. 00:17:28.170 --> 00:17:31.290 The water won't go down. They're all always a little bit angled. 00:17:31.310 --> 00:17:36.210 Yeah, yeah, yeah. But maybe not enough to hide a person, right? Right. 00:17:38.050 --> 00:17:39.510 It's angle, but not exactly. 00:17:39.770 --> 00:17:40.230 Right, right. 00:17:40.230 --> 00:17:41.230 Not enough to hide the person. 00:17:41.430 --> 00:17:47.810 But here's the thing, though. Everything that we are saying right now is within 00:17:47.810 --> 00:17:49.450 a couple hours of this happening. 00:17:49.450 --> 00:17:56.470 we will know a lot more you know tomorrow let alone in a week in terms of exactly 00:17:56.470 --> 00:18:01.550 what went down here i'm sure we'll find out who the shooter was they'll dig 00:18:01.550 --> 00:18:06.150 through his social media they'll get to his motivations like yeah. 00:18:06.150 --> 00:18:11.210 Because you know all the people say i mean we don't even know why i i mean for 00:18:11.210 --> 00:18:16.990 you know look i mean we have no idea i mean we can speculate because of. 00:18:16.990 --> 00:18:17.550 What we He said. 00:18:17.650 --> 00:18:19.850 But we don't know. I mean, we just don't. 00:18:21.010 --> 00:18:25.430 I mean, what if he is crazy, even ultra right wing guy who thinks that he's 00:18:25.430 --> 00:18:26.570 just not going far enough? 00:18:26.650 --> 00:18:30.690 Well, I saw at least one person speculate that, oh, maybe it's somebody who's 00:18:30.690 --> 00:18:33.830 upset that they softened the abortion language in the platform, 00:18:34.090 --> 00:18:35.430 blah, blah, blah. Who knows? 00:18:37.210 --> 00:18:41.610 It's honestly like it could be that. 00:18:41.990 --> 00:18:47.550 But if I had to bet right now, it would be someone on someone on the Democratic 00:18:47.550 --> 00:18:51.010 side, someone on the left who does view donald trump as. 00:18:51.010 --> 00:18:55.530 Or it could be just somebody mentally ill for all we know well because we've 00:18:55.530 --> 00:18:59.770 got listen we speculate about all the damn assassination attempts for example 00:18:59.770 --> 00:19:07.870 i mean john hinkley he tried to kill reagan i mean i mean no rhyme or reason yeah it was john. 00:19:07.870 --> 00:19:09.910 Hinkley wasn't political it was he was. 00:19:09.910 --> 00:19:10.850 Trying to impress. 00:19:10.850 --> 00:19:12.130 Jody foster or whatever. 00:19:12.130 --> 00:19:16.370 Exactly so so who the hell knows what if this guy was trying to impress a girl 00:19:16.370 --> 00:19:18.850 i mean for all we know. Yeah. 00:19:18.970 --> 00:19:21.710 Well, and that's the point is that right now we don't know. 00:19:21.810 --> 00:19:27.370 We will, we will, we will know more soon, but as we are recording this right 00:19:27.370 --> 00:19:30.770 now, there are still a lot of unknowns, 00:19:30.970 --> 00:19:36.270 but, and obviously this is going to be very intensely looked into both in terms 00:19:36.270 --> 00:19:39.670 of the shooter and their motives and how they got past security. 00:19:39.770 --> 00:19:44.790 And did secret service do anything wrong did local police do everything anything 00:19:44.790 --> 00:19:51.230 wrong you know all of this is going to happen and and that'll play out and in 00:19:51.230 --> 00:19:56.890 the meantime you know the campaign continues and we uh we. 00:19:56.890 --> 00:20:03.870 Don't look this is have i don't know who knows what effect this will have i don't know look i i was. 00:20:03.870 --> 00:20:09.230 Mentioning yeah i guess i'm guessing a sympathy bump for trump but we'll see but. 00:20:09.230 --> 00:20:14.470 But who knows I mean, I go and I'm like, look, Gerald Ford still lost the fucking 00:20:14.470 --> 00:20:16.990 election. They tried to kill him. They tried to kill him twice. 00:20:17.370 --> 00:20:22.390 Well, let me be clear. I'm predicting a sympathy bump, but I'm predicting a 00:20:22.390 --> 00:20:26.810 sympathy bump that'll last a few weeks, not something that will last through November. 00:20:27.830 --> 00:20:31.230 Oh, hell, I don't even think that I think by next week, you know, 00:20:31.230 --> 00:20:34.450 he'll start saying some crazy shit again and everybody will forget about this. 00:20:34.590 --> 00:20:42.610 Well, I presume I will be shocked if the Republican National Convention does 00:20:42.610 --> 00:20:48.310 not like fixate on this for like the entire length of the convention. 00:20:48.310 --> 00:20:53.090 I mean, when Donald Trump comes up to speak, they're going to be like clips 00:20:53.090 --> 00:20:58.190 of this and that picture of him with the bloodied, 00:20:58.190 --> 00:20:59.870 but with an American flag behind 00:20:59.870 --> 00:21:04.250 him as he's being escorted out that that that's going to be projected. 00:21:04.390 --> 00:21:11.230 And he's going to be like, they tried to take me down and I'm not fighting. fighting you know. 00:21:11.230 --> 00:21:18.570 By the way they tried to assassinate for a lot like it was but 17 days apart 00:21:18.570 --> 00:21:22.410 sam right yeah 17 days apart all. 00:21:22.410 --> 00:21:27.450 Right are you saying we should put a mark on our calendar 17 days from now to see what happens. 00:21:27.450 --> 00:21:32.050 Shit i mean i'm saying that you know i knew this year is going to be crazy but 00:21:32.050 --> 00:21:39.510 every damn every damn time it's just you know i mean what the hell it's just i I mean, 00:21:39.550 --> 00:21:44.970 now we're down to even including assassination attempts in the fucking election. God sakes. 00:21:45.410 --> 00:21:54.670 Right. So anyway, I think we can wrap this up and let you guys go to the actual 00:21:54.670 --> 00:21:56.710 show we recorded before this happened. 00:21:56.950 --> 00:22:01.530 Because at this point, anything we say is pure speculation beyond the basics. 00:22:01.770 --> 00:22:06.650 By the time we record next week's show, I'm sure we'll know a lot more about 00:22:06.650 --> 00:22:10.010 what happened here. And we'll have the whole Republican national convention 00:22:10.010 --> 00:22:14.150 behind us and probably other developments too. 00:22:14.250 --> 00:22:17.330 Yvonne, like you said, like we're in crazy times now. 00:22:17.510 --> 00:22:24.630 Like, so what the hell, man? Just what the fucking hell. Just what the fucking hell. 00:22:24.930 --> 00:22:25.490 Yeah. 00:22:25.590 --> 00:22:27.890 Every fucking day. What the fucking hell, man. 00:22:28.490 --> 00:22:32.510 Okay. Well with that, we will say goodbye for now. 00:22:32.690 --> 00:22:39.470 And in, in just a second, it you'll get the show that we recorded the day before 00:22:39.470 --> 00:22:42.830 all this happened bye folks bye, 00:23:00.580 --> 00:23:01.440 Hello, Yvonne. 00:23:01.900 --> 00:23:02.360 Hello. 00:23:03.420 --> 00:23:05.560 Let me see here before we... 00:23:09.640 --> 00:23:12.400 I'm trying to test live streaming, so we'll see how this goes. 00:23:15.720 --> 00:23:21.020 Says, oh, you know, wait, wait. Oh, that's annoying. 00:23:21.240 --> 00:23:23.880 Okay, wait a second. Try something. Setting. 00:23:24.400 --> 00:23:27.140 Maybe we have to change this. 00:23:29.480 --> 00:23:32.140 blah blah blah blah. 00:23:32.140 --> 00:23:39.040 Blah blah blah blah blah blah audio. 00:23:43.520 --> 00:23:51.080 There we go now let's see if i can find it hold on i'm gonna stop that because 00:23:51.080 --> 00:23:59.900 we don't need it and then i'm going to post in the slack just to see if anybody you don't mind right, 00:24:01.320 --> 00:24:06.980 mind what testing doing a live stream i'm gonna like i know okay i was. 00:24:06.980 --> 00:24:11.660 Like i'm like i mean i i was i was making sure i mean i i understood your live 00:24:11.660 --> 00:24:14.780 stream i was just wondering i'm like that i that i miss a meeting i mean why 00:24:14.780 --> 00:24:21.060 why would i mind like the hell am i minding uh send me. 00:24:24.560 --> 00:24:35.400 Okay okay usual usual like just go go get them into the thing bop right okay 00:24:35.400 --> 00:24:42.200 here we go got that clear yeah very clear blah blah blah here we go, 00:25:06.730 --> 00:25:13.310 Welcome to Curmudgeon's Corner for Saturday, July 13th, 2024. 00:25:14.190 --> 00:25:18.910 It's just after 2 UTC as we are starting to record. I'm Sam Minter, 00:25:18.990 --> 00:25:20.590 Yvonne Boe is here again. Hello, Yvonne. 00:25:21.810 --> 00:25:22.370 Hi. 00:25:24.050 --> 00:25:29.710 How you doing? You sound unenthusiastic, maybe a little tired. I don't know. 00:25:29.890 --> 00:25:31.250 I am tired. 00:25:31.810 --> 00:25:32.370 Okay. 00:25:32.770 --> 00:25:39.670 I don't know. I'm not super, I'm up a little bit, yeah. You know. Oh. 00:25:40.490 --> 00:25:41.690 You've been traveling again? 00:25:42.090 --> 00:25:46.450 I was traveling all week. I was gone Monday through Thursday. 00:25:46.870 --> 00:25:52.250 And then some of my meetings got canceled, and I was trying to see if I could 00:25:52.250 --> 00:25:53.590 get on an earlier flight. 00:25:53.930 --> 00:25:58.950 But all the flights were, like, so full, they weren't even taking me on standby. 00:25:59.070 --> 00:26:01.830 I couldn't even standby on them. That's how full they were. 00:26:02.070 --> 00:26:02.470 Gotcha. 00:26:02.470 --> 00:26:10.510 Because I am back at, like, maybe not top, like, top of, like, 00:26:10.550 --> 00:26:12.510 the elite status, but I'm pretty close. 00:26:12.870 --> 00:26:16.910 Okay, right. You've fallen down a little bit from your previous highs. 00:26:17.570 --> 00:26:22.070 Yeah, because traveling to Asia made it easier. 00:26:22.490 --> 00:26:27.030 But I am near there still. I'm not that far off. Okay? 00:26:27.690 --> 00:26:27.950 Mm-hmm. 00:26:27.950 --> 00:26:35.370 So I get priority if I want to change flights, I'm going to change it for free. Okay. 00:26:36.310 --> 00:26:41.930 And so I went into the thing and I went to look at it and all the flight, 00:26:41.990 --> 00:26:43.770 they wouldn't even take me as a standby. 00:26:44.430 --> 00:26:47.210 And I was like, shit to hell. 00:26:48.130 --> 00:26:51.590 It kept trying to tell me, yeah, you could change. Yeah, you could change your 00:26:51.590 --> 00:26:52.470 flight. You can fly tomorrow. 00:26:53.150 --> 00:26:56.990 Oh, I'll fly tomorrow. I want to fly earlier, not later. 00:26:57.950 --> 00:27:04.310 And then, so my flight was supposed to leave at eight 30 and then we left the 00:27:04.310 --> 00:27:07.110 gate sometime after nine 40. 00:27:08.690 --> 00:27:14.470 And I will say that I had the, I've had times that we've left the gate. 00:27:14.550 --> 00:27:21.670 We've had to go back to the gate, but never for the reason that we turned back yesterday. 00:27:21.870 --> 00:27:29.630 Okay. Okay, which was that all of a sudden the flight attendants come on the microphone and say, 00:27:29.690 --> 00:27:36.650 look, we're going to turn back to the gate because we have a major issue in 00:27:36.650 --> 00:27:38.790 the galley in first class. 00:27:38.830 --> 00:27:40.990 And oh, by the way, I was at a 737 max. 00:27:41.550 --> 00:27:41.950 Okay. 00:27:41.990 --> 00:27:43.870 So, you know, look, look, look me. I'm alive. 00:27:44.550 --> 00:27:45.150 Good job. 00:27:45.170 --> 00:27:49.130 By the way, which I actually like that plane very much. It's very quiet. Okay. 00:27:49.430 --> 00:27:51.690 As long as it remains in control. 00:27:52.390 --> 00:27:57.170 A lot of the brains is control. It's actually very, it is, it is a very comfortable plan. 00:27:57.530 --> 00:28:01.970 The engines are a lot quieter. It flies very well. I do like, but anyway. 00:28:03.160 --> 00:28:08.320 We're going to have to turn back to the gate because the caterers came and they 00:28:08.320 --> 00:28:14.340 opened the door to put in the catering up here in first class, but it was pouring rain. 00:28:15.840 --> 00:28:20.220 Usually they will have like a hood or something or whatever to cover this. 00:28:20.460 --> 00:28:21.780 Well, they didn't do that. 00:28:22.140 --> 00:28:30.380 So they said, well, our galley is completely full of water and we can't go like this. 00:28:30.560 --> 00:28:32.960 We're going to have to go back to the gate. 00:28:33.160 --> 00:28:37.780 And I'm like, look, I've never heard of this. I'm like, what the fuck are they talking about? 00:28:38.060 --> 00:28:42.500 I mean, how full of water can the first class galley be? 00:28:43.520 --> 00:28:51.200 And I think it was, I think as we reached the gate, the person in the window 00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:55.440 seat where I was sitting, and I did get an upgrade. 00:28:55.560 --> 00:28:59.920 So I was sitting in first class where the galley you were talking about. 00:28:59.920 --> 00:29:05.660 And so they got up to go to the bathroom and then I look at the floor up there 00:29:05.660 --> 00:29:12.000 and I see, holy shit, it's I've never seen the front of an aircraft that wet in my life. 00:29:12.420 --> 00:29:18.820 And it had apparently taken out almost every damn paper towel and stuff that 00:29:18.820 --> 00:29:21.600 they could have out of the bathroom or wherever. 00:29:22.040 --> 00:29:26.580 And it wasn't enough. They could not get this damn thing dry. 00:29:26.580 --> 00:29:32.880 And so we literally had to turn back to the gate to get some people with like 00:29:32.880 --> 00:29:39.060 some mops and towels and shit and come in and dry out the galley. 00:29:39.380 --> 00:29:40.060 Beautiful. 00:29:40.380 --> 00:29:46.080 And so that meant, so that made that my flight, it was scheduled at 830 that 00:29:46.080 --> 00:29:53.780 already had departed late at 940, then wound up taking off sometime closer to 11. 00:29:54.220 --> 00:29:54.900 Okay. 00:29:54.900 --> 00:29:59.700 And so I didn't make it home until sometime past two o'clock. 00:30:00.580 --> 00:30:07.140 And, uh, and I had, I mean, I did stay in bed until a little later. 00:30:08.660 --> 00:30:11.900 I, you know what I mean? A little later, like eight 40. 00:30:12.620 --> 00:30:13.100 Okay. 00:30:13.520 --> 00:30:17.460 Something like that. But I had a very full day. 00:30:18.280 --> 00:30:22.100 And so I, I, you know, I'm a little bit tired. 00:30:22.100 --> 00:30:28.440 So, so before, before we do our normal, but first, cause I, I unintentionally 00:30:28.440 --> 00:30:30.660 got Yvonne started on travel again. 00:30:30.820 --> 00:30:32.880 Well, I had a wet galley, Sam. 00:30:33.100 --> 00:30:33.560 I know. 00:30:33.660 --> 00:30:39.740 I had a wet, I mean, who the hell can you tell? Listen, I've been doing this for how long? 00:30:39.880 --> 00:30:45.940 I have never, ever had a flight delay that involved flooding. 00:30:46.080 --> 00:30:48.920 The galley being wet. Yes. Flooding. 00:30:49.500 --> 00:30:54.760 Okay. Yes. So I will say like, this is not a me travel story, 00:30:54.920 --> 00:31:00.180 but my wife right now, she had been attending a conference in Portland and her 00:31:00.180 --> 00:31:03.300 next thing she had to go to is in, 00:31:04.060 --> 00:31:08.700 Pasco, Washington, which is a small town in like Eastern Washington. Okay. 00:31:08.860 --> 00:31:14.660 And she was going to go from one to the other via Amtrak. Okay. 00:31:14.780 --> 00:31:15.300 Yeah. 00:31:15.640 --> 00:31:18.620 I mean, it seemed reasonable enough, but then her 00:31:18.620 --> 00:31:22.680 her train like just was listed as something happened 00:31:22.680 --> 00:31:26.400 all the times became tbd and 00:31:26.400 --> 00:31:29.300 she waited a couple hours for like a it 00:31:29.300 --> 00:31:34.520 was like i don't know an obstruction i don't know there was no explanation it 00:31:34.520 --> 00:31:40.700 just like wasn't there and there was no eta anymore so she didn't know what 00:31:40.700 --> 00:31:48.640 was going on so she had to like last minute reshuffle her plans cancel the train ticket and And instead, 00:31:48.820 --> 00:31:52.620 she's flying from Portland to Seattle and Seattle to Pasco. 00:31:53.740 --> 00:31:57.520 That's a beautiful... You know, my wife is having to go... 00:31:58.020 --> 00:32:01.940 Well, not having to go. She signed up to go to an event that's in... 00:32:02.760 --> 00:32:07.780 some town that is three hours from Seattle, which she was saying, 00:32:08.320 --> 00:32:10.120 she was saying, Hey, well, I can see Sam. 00:32:10.200 --> 00:32:14.040 Well, no, you're not. It's your, your three plus hours from Seattle. 00:32:14.840 --> 00:32:18.300 It's, it's just a short little jaunt. She can, you know, come on over. 00:32:18.800 --> 00:32:22.640 Yeah. So it was closer to Portland. Okay. 00:32:22.720 --> 00:32:25.760 So, so it'd be four hours to us. Cause we're North of Seattle. 00:32:26.300 --> 00:32:29.180 Yeah, exactly. It would be four hours to you. Right. 00:32:29.340 --> 00:32:33.580 Basically. And that's, and I, and I think I did, I did point that out to her if I remember. 00:32:33.700 --> 00:32:36.940 Yes, it's three hours to Seattle plus one hour there. Yeah. So no, 00:32:37.040 --> 00:32:39.560 no, you're not, you're not, you're not even close. 00:32:39.920 --> 00:32:45.360 So I am flying her to, uh, in order to get to that town, you know, 00:32:45.360 --> 00:32:48.720 those towns are not very accessible. Not a lot of flights. 00:32:48.960 --> 00:32:52.660 I noticed, I mean, I had to basically, there was no flight there. 00:32:52.800 --> 00:32:57.540 I'm having to fly her to Portland and then get her a rental car and she's going to still 00:32:57.640 --> 00:33:04.360 have to drive two hours from, from Portland to that town on the coast and, 00:33:04.360 --> 00:33:09.140 you know, Washington state, like near the border with, uh, 00:33:09.380 --> 00:33:11.100 with Oregon, 00:33:11.500 --> 00:33:14.020 Oregon, right? Yeah. Oregon, right. Yeah. 00:33:14.120 --> 00:33:16.860 Portland is in Oregon, unless you're talking about Portland, Maine. 00:33:17.260 --> 00:33:20.500 No, no. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not talking about the main one. No Oregon. 00:33:21.040 --> 00:33:25.400 So, yeah, I mean, it's, they're not very easily accessible. So yeah, 00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:29.740 that routing sounds, you know, like, yeah, what, what I'd expect is it's not, 00:33:29.740 --> 00:33:33.120 not very, not, not, not, not, not a lot of. 00:33:33.930 --> 00:33:36.210 Don't seem to be a lot of easier ways to get around. 00:33:37.030 --> 00:33:42.390 Okay. So anyway, did you, did you have a real, but first, I mean, 00:33:42.390 --> 00:33:46.530 you're, you're, you're, you're, but first are very often travel related anyway, 00:33:46.670 --> 00:33:50.390 but you know, and, and just for everybody, we will hit the real news of the week. 00:33:50.890 --> 00:33:51.290 Yep. 00:33:51.490 --> 00:33:55.610 Our usual pattern here. We talk about non newsy stuff for the first segment, 00:33:55.650 --> 00:33:57.470 and then we do two segments of newsy stuff. 00:33:58.910 --> 00:34:02.390 So what do you want to talk about? I got a movie again. I got a movie. 00:34:02.830 --> 00:34:06.050 You got a movie. movie why don't you go with a you know what let's switch it up. 00:34:06.050 --> 00:34:08.730 You want me to go first yes okay what do you got 00:34:08.730 --> 00:34:12.890 yeah there's some random non-movie stuff i could do but i figure i've gone a 00:34:12.890 --> 00:34:16.210 couple weeks without movies so it's well i did a movie last week i did 2001 00:34:16.210 --> 00:34:24.090 anyway the next movie in order for me is uh one that i watched february 3rd 00:34:24.090 --> 00:34:28.330 race to which mountain so that's. 00:34:28.330 --> 00:34:29.930 A disney movie right. 00:34:29.930 --> 00:34:31.850 That's a what movie it's. 00:34:31.850 --> 00:34:32.610 A disney movie. 00:34:32.610 --> 00:34:35.310 Well the whole series is disney yeah but this is yeah 00:34:35.310 --> 00:34:39.450 this is the one like all of the others and i have talked about the older ones 00:34:39.450 --> 00:34:44.270 in the franchise on the show as i sort of watched through them like there was 00:34:44.270 --> 00:34:50.110 the 1970s series and then there was a a remake in like the 90s or something 00:34:50.110 --> 00:34:53.630 but anyway no this is the 2009 version 00:34:53.830 --> 00:35:01.150 with dwayne the rock johnson in it and this is sort of oh yeah yeah. 00:35:01.150 --> 00:35:06.990 Yeah they had that i i remember seeing those ads and always thought it was so weird right yes. 00:35:06.990 --> 00:35:15.070 Yeah i mean and here's the thing i i you know right away i'll say thumbs sideways sideways it's. 00:35:15.070 --> 00:35:16.390 Got dwayne johnson. 00:35:18.390 --> 00:35:21.090 Yeah yeah okay yeah i. 00:35:21.090 --> 00:35:26.710 Mean i know he's very popular but you know i just almost every movie that i've 00:35:26.710 --> 00:35:28.910 watched him in i've been like. 00:35:29.950 --> 00:35:37.810 Meh right well you know he he's he seems like a nice enough guy i guess and i'm. 00:35:37.810 --> 00:35:41.950 Not saying he's not i'm not saying he's an asshole no no no i'm just saying 00:35:41.950 --> 00:35:43.950 that from an acting point of view i'm like. 00:35:43.950 --> 00:35:46.790 Whatever you know but right yeah. 00:35:46.790 --> 00:35:49.730 Basically yeah whatever but basically yeah. 00:35:49.730 --> 00:35:58.290 Yeah so what's the right way to to put this just to get to point as thumb sideways 00:35:58.290 --> 00:36:00.430 did i say that already thumb sideways yeah. 00:36:00.430 --> 00:36:01.370 Yes you started with the. 00:36:01.370 --> 00:36:10.090 Thumb sideways so here's the thing this is sort of a semi but not really remake 00:36:10.090 --> 00:36:12.970 of the 1970s version uh-huh. 00:36:12.970 --> 00:36:16.170 Yeah that's what i got that was the idea i got from it yeah. 00:36:16.170 --> 00:36:20.810 It's sort of it it sort of takes the fundamental concept that there are two 00:36:20.810 --> 00:36:25.510 kids that are really aliens and they have to get back to like their spaceship 00:36:25.510 --> 00:36:28.810 and that's it that's like 00:36:28.910 --> 00:36:36.130 all that's similar to the originals i mean and they have powers you know and it just. 00:36:37.040 --> 00:36:40.840 I don't know. It was adequate. It was a couple hours. 00:36:41.200 --> 00:36:47.360 It was like, okay, it's fine. It filled the time, you know, I watched it. 00:36:47.380 --> 00:36:51.920 I wasn't unpleasant to watch, but at the same time, it seemed kind of, 00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:56.200 it seemed kind of pointless, you know, it's, it's sort of like, 00:36:56.340 --> 00:36:59.660 you know, they, they try because it was the rock. 00:36:59.680 --> 00:37:02.860 It was, it was like more action adventure-y than the original, 00:37:03.020 --> 00:37:05.700 you know, the original, original yeah the kids went through a little 00:37:05.700 --> 00:37:08.520 adventure to try to get where they were going and whatever blah blah 00:37:08.520 --> 00:37:11.900 blah but it was you know it was a low stakes kids disney 00:37:11.900 --> 00:37:17.820 afternoon thing you know it was like for made for tv and i don't know maybe 00:37:17.820 --> 00:37:20.660 the original was theatrical i don't know but anyway it was made for kids it 00:37:20.660 --> 00:37:24.940 was low stakes blah blah blah and it was more about hey cute little kids with 00:37:24.940 --> 00:37:31.000 powers than it was about an actual like adventure with drama and you're You're worried about them. 00:37:31.080 --> 00:37:37.720 The, you know, and this is just sort of like, okay, some, some pointless car 00:37:37.720 --> 00:37:40.940 chases, you know, the rock being the rock, 00:37:41.180 --> 00:37:48.160 like there was a, there was a little romance where the rock met this scientist 00:37:48.160 --> 00:37:51.380 at a planetarium for some reason that helped them. 00:37:51.420 --> 00:37:56.060 Because of course, if you're like a scientist who works at a planetarium, 00:37:56.160 --> 00:37:58.440 you know, all about aliens, you know, right. 00:37:58.460 --> 00:37:59.100 Of course. 00:37:59.100 --> 00:38:01.940 Yes yeah and and so and. 00:38:01.940 --> 00:38:02.680 That makes sense. 00:38:02.680 --> 00:38:06.080 You know and it feels like it 00:38:06.080 --> 00:38:09.120 it sort of squeezed the charm out of the concept like 00:38:09.120 --> 00:38:13.920 the original movie is cute it's charming there are these kids and they have 00:38:13.920 --> 00:38:19.640 powers and they they it's sort of a sweet ending where they they find out that 00:38:19.640 --> 00:38:23.700 they were they were left on earth to sort of be protected or whatever and then 00:38:23.700 --> 00:38:27.280 they get to go go home to their real families or whatever. 00:38:27.660 --> 00:38:34.380 And this just had none of that, like sort of sweet, cute, a mute emotional resonance. 00:38:34.460 --> 00:38:35.600 And it was just sort of like. 00:38:36.380 --> 00:38:39.540 Okay, you're running around having a little action movie and, 00:38:39.620 --> 00:38:44.860 you know, running away from the bad guys who are trying to keep you from getting there or whatever. 00:38:45.060 --> 00:38:50.140 And it is what it is. Again, I'm not giving it a thumbs down because I didn't, 00:38:50.140 --> 00:38:55.600 I reserve thumbs down for the movies that I have a visceral negative reaction 00:38:55.600 --> 00:38:59.060 to where I'm like, this movie is just horrible. 00:38:59.220 --> 00:39:04.040 I kind of regret watching it ever. And this wasn't that it was just sort of 00:39:04.040 --> 00:39:06.200 like, blah, it's like, like, 00:39:06.380 --> 00:39:10.660 okay it was a movie it wasn't anything like super 00:39:10.660 --> 00:39:13.440 worthwhile like and we're doing i was 00:39:13.440 --> 00:39:16.480 doing it because i was completing all of the witch mountain stuff and 00:39:16.480 --> 00:39:19.780 this was the most recent one but i think the last one 00:39:19.780 --> 00:39:22.880 was also a remake of the original but it 00:39:22.880 --> 00:39:26.800 was a much closer adaptation just redone 20 00:39:26.800 --> 00:39:30.760 years later or 30 years later for whatever reason this 00:39:30.760 --> 00:39:37.360 was like not even a remake because they changed so much it's just like they 00:39:37.360 --> 00:39:41.060 took some of the high level conceptual elements and that's it and then tried 00:39:41.060 --> 00:39:45.220 to modernize it and make it more actiony and blah blah blah and i just it didn't 00:39:45.220 --> 00:39:48.980 work i don't think didn't work yeah yeah so. 00:39:48.980 --> 00:39:54.280 I mean what movies is the rocky i don't even you know the only one that i recall 00:39:54.280 --> 00:39:58.220 like for whatever reason and i don't like any of those movies. 00:39:58.220 --> 00:40:03.400 Okay i guess i'm gonna i'm gonna click on his wikipedia page now yeah i mean. 00:40:03.400 --> 00:40:06.840 I was like I remember in the Fast and the Furious movies, and I don't, 00:40:06.840 --> 00:40:09.900 I remember, look, wait, okay, let me be clear. 00:40:10.040 --> 00:40:12.000 And of course, he was a wrestler before that. 00:40:12.300 --> 00:40:18.160 Yeah, he was, now, let me be clear. I don't think I've watched any Fast and 00:40:18.160 --> 00:40:20.380 the Furious movie that he has been in. 00:40:20.480 --> 00:40:25.100 The only Fast and the Furious movie that I watched was the first one. 00:40:25.540 --> 00:40:26.020 Okay. 00:40:26.180 --> 00:40:32.560 I have not watched, I don't, I think maybe I've watched some minutes of one of the first sequels. 00:40:32.560 --> 00:40:37.400 I have not I mean there have been so many of those movies I haven't watched 00:40:37.400 --> 00:40:45.900 any past that first maybe some minutes of the sequels I see that there is a nine nine, 00:40:46.640 --> 00:40:47.920 movies nine, 00:40:49.290 --> 00:40:51.030 jeez in. 00:40:51.030 --> 00:40:53.470 The fast and furious uh franchise. 00:40:53.470 --> 00:41:00.470 Holy oh no 10 what am i talking about there was fast x the last one it's all 00:41:00.470 --> 00:41:06.430 let me see so he was in where the hell producer screenwriters, 00:41:07.330 --> 00:41:08.910 i know so. 00:41:08.910 --> 00:41:11.970 Like look his his movie list is fairly long. 00:41:11.970 --> 00:41:12.590 Yeah his. 00:41:12.590 --> 00:41:17.770 His first one on his filmography was The Mummy Returns in 2001. 00:41:18.070 --> 00:41:20.130 That was apparently his first movie. 00:41:20.630 --> 00:41:24.730 Well, I definitely didn't watch that. My wife made me watch, 00:41:24.850 --> 00:41:29.670 I think, a good chunks of the first Mummy movie. There was no fucking way. 00:41:30.030 --> 00:41:33.350 Well, and this is the modern Mummy movies, which were, of course, 00:41:33.370 --> 00:41:38.090 a remake of the really old classic Mummy movies from, like, many decades ago. 00:41:38.570 --> 00:41:44.850 Yeah, and I hated Mummy movies. Yeah, I didn't see that. 00:41:45.130 --> 00:41:49.350 Then Longshot, The Scorpion King, The Rundown, Walking Tall, 00:41:49.550 --> 00:41:53.390 Be Cool, Doom, Southland Tales, Gridiron Gang, The Game Plan, 00:41:53.570 --> 00:41:57.150 Get Smart, then Race to Witch Mountain, the one I was just talking about. 00:41:57.290 --> 00:42:02.150 Then a bunch of other stuff. I mean, he's known for, he's in the Moana movies. 00:42:02.430 --> 00:42:06.290 He's the, what's his name? I've never actually seen Moana. 00:42:07.470 --> 00:42:08.710 Well, okay. 00:42:08.970 --> 00:42:10.670 You haven't seen Moana? 00:42:10.950 --> 00:42:12.150 I have not seen Moana. 00:42:12.310 --> 00:42:16.110 Okay. Hey, that movie is very good. And he was actually very good doing the 00:42:16.110 --> 00:42:18.150 voice of what he was doing in that movie. 00:42:18.430 --> 00:42:18.870 Okay. 00:42:19.010 --> 00:42:22.210 I'll give that a thumb. Brief review. Thumbs up to Moana. 00:42:22.630 --> 00:42:28.970 Okay. Okay. And he was also in Jumanji or at least some of the Jumanji sequels. 00:42:28.990 --> 00:42:29.730 Oh, yeah. 00:42:30.410 --> 00:42:33.810 Jumanji. Welcome to the jungle. And yeah. 00:42:34.810 --> 00:42:39.410 And so, yeah, I definitely I just looked up when he because all of a sudden he was. 00:42:39.410 --> 00:42:41.010 He was Maui in Moana. 00:42:41.290 --> 00:42:45.290 Maui. He was Maui. Yeah, he did very good at that movie. 00:42:45.590 --> 00:42:47.930 And Moana 2 that's coming out this year. 00:42:48.530 --> 00:42:50.110 Oh, shit, that's right. I forgot about that. 00:42:50.930 --> 00:42:56.270 So let's see. I definitely never saw him in any of the facet of furious movies. 00:42:56.390 --> 00:43:01.590 There's some reason I think I I've heard about this. Some people discussing this out. 00:43:02.010 --> 00:43:06.310 They brought him in as I mean, they had made like a fourth movie. 00:43:06.430 --> 00:43:11.510 They're going for number five. I mean, if you think about how ridiculous a French 00:43:11.510 --> 00:43:17.750 movie franchise is that has only existed since the year 2001 and they've made 10 movies. 00:43:17.750 --> 00:43:21.830 So basically, a movie every, what, almost like a little over two years, 00:43:22.010 --> 00:43:23.890 there's been a fucking movie for this? 00:43:24.210 --> 00:43:29.290 I mean, they've had people, and in that short span, they've had some of the main actors die. 00:43:30.370 --> 00:43:32.350 Yes, I had heard that name. 00:43:32.590 --> 00:43:38.570 Okay. You know, but, yeah. And so they brought him in in like Fast Five. 00:43:39.390 --> 00:43:43.630 I think it may have been, I guess, because what's his name? Paul Walker died. Maybe. 00:43:44.210 --> 00:43:49.210 but but you know yeah i i i don't think i've ever watched them in any of the movies. 00:43:49.210 --> 00:43:51.910 Okay so anyway. 00:43:51.910 --> 00:43:52.870 Thumb sideways. 00:43:52.870 --> 00:43:55.450 For race to witch mountain that's. 00:43:55.450 --> 00:44:00.170 That's all i got sideways and that's all you got i don't know. 00:44:00.170 --> 00:44:04.850 And that's for two it was a 2009 movie i think i probably said that but i'll 00:44:04.850 --> 00:44:10.010 say it again thumb sideways race to witch mountain 2009 and i said everything 00:44:10.010 --> 00:44:12.870 else i needed to say i guess so your turn yvonne. 00:44:12.870 --> 00:44:18.630 My turn so what happened this week i don't remember what happened this week. 00:44:18.630 --> 00:44:24.110 We we do have a list you could look at of like there's there's some non newsy stuff on it. 00:44:24.110 --> 00:44:30.710 I did actually i did look at it but here is the one thing that i i will make 00:44:30.710 --> 00:44:33.770 an observation about something that happens to me every time i go to puerto 00:44:33.770 --> 00:44:36.390 rico okay oh i once Once again. 00:44:36.470 --> 00:44:38.090 Travel-related, going back to that. 00:44:38.310 --> 00:44:44.590 Well, it's not about the travel itself. More about something interesting about Puerto Rico itself. 00:44:45.250 --> 00:44:47.370 Okay. I've heard it's an island. 00:44:47.710 --> 00:44:50.250 Yes. Wow. Good call. Okay. 00:44:51.330 --> 00:44:58.790 So every time I rent a car and then I actually stop at this gas station that's 00:44:58.790 --> 00:45:02.450 on the way to the airport to fill the car back up before I return. Okay. 00:45:03.450 --> 00:45:07.810 It's just the most convenient thing is to get a car to move around in Puerto Rico. 00:45:08.250 --> 00:45:14.770 And so this gas station is actually owned. Funny enough, I've lived in this 00:45:14.770 --> 00:45:17.490 condo here in Boca Raton for 15, 16 years. 00:45:17.490 --> 00:45:25.330 And this guy that owned that gas station moved here right in a condo right by 00:45:25.330 --> 00:45:27.890 mine and lived there for about six or seven years. 00:45:28.110 --> 00:45:31.070 And that's a gas station I always stop all the time in Puerto Rico. 00:45:31.110 --> 00:45:37.030 And the freaking coincidence that this guy from Puerto Rico moved right across 00:45:37.030 --> 00:45:40.350 from me was just really, really hilarious. 00:45:40.350 --> 00:45:43.210 hilarious and i don't know if i told this but but one day 00:45:43.210 --> 00:45:46.450 i was at that gas station and i 00:45:46.450 --> 00:45:49.230 went to pump gas and all of a sudden i see on my 00:45:49.230 --> 00:45:52.170 phone where he's like saying hey what are 00:45:52.170 --> 00:45:54.910 you doing i'm like what the hell why is he 00:45:54.910 --> 00:45:57.770 texting me how the hell could he be to me now and 00:45:57.770 --> 00:46:00.770 i like he calls me up and i'm like what the hell you 00:46:00.770 --> 00:46:03.610 got cameras yes i do i just saw 00:46:03.610 --> 00:46:06.550 you i looked at him and i saw you like at 00:46:06.550 --> 00:46:09.890 the damn station laughing he lives 00:46:09.890 --> 00:46:14.070 in jacksonville for god's sakes of all places now it's so far and he's like 00:46:14.070 --> 00:46:17.950 yeah yeah yeah i just saw you walking to the damn i just saw you walk in and 00:46:17.950 --> 00:46:22.250 the reason he saw me walk in is because one thing that oddly i noticed in all 00:46:22.250 --> 00:46:29.190 puerto rico that they don't have that we have at all the gas stations here okay pay at the pump. 00:46:29.910 --> 00:46:32.050 Wait they don't have that. 00:46:32.050 --> 00:46:42.050 No i i and i i don't understand why in the world you cannot pay at the pump in puerto rico. 00:46:42.050 --> 00:46:45.490 Wow like i am so used to that at this point. 00:46:45.490 --> 00:46:48.150 I believe me so am i i. 00:46:48.150 --> 00:46:53.310 Mean i can't i like at this point like if if i come up to a gas station and 00:46:53.310 --> 00:46:57.110 for whatever reason they have I have the little sign up that says you can't pay at the pump. 00:46:57.230 --> 00:46:59.490 I leave and find a different gas station. 00:46:59.590 --> 00:47:05.430 Listen, I've done that myself. Okay. You know, I mean, I, I have, okay. 00:47:05.650 --> 00:47:11.710 But none of the, I mean, gas stations in Puerto Rico, they're not using pay at the pump. 00:47:12.230 --> 00:47:18.550 For some reason, I was explained that whoever is the main credit card processor 00:47:18.550 --> 00:47:21.510 that they use in Puerto Rico. 00:47:22.170 --> 00:47:27.830 That I have seen in most places has some pretty sophisticated little terminals and shit. 00:47:27.990 --> 00:47:28.690 Okay. Yeah. 00:47:28.790 --> 00:47:33.370 They're not compliant and they can't use them at the fucking gas stations. 00:47:33.730 --> 00:47:39.950 And so I have not stopped at a gas station in Puerto Rico that has pay at the pump. 00:47:40.530 --> 00:47:44.650 And so this is a very weird experience every time. 00:47:44.710 --> 00:47:47.570 And it's not like New Jersey where it's full serve either. 00:47:48.130 --> 00:47:50.290 No, no. I have to go. 00:47:50.290 --> 00:47:52.030 So is New Jersey still full surf? 00:47:52.510 --> 00:47:52.950 Yes. 00:47:53.150 --> 00:47:56.490 I know Oregon got rid of it a couple of years ago. They were the last two. 00:47:56.570 --> 00:48:00.010 No, New Jersey still. Yeah. No, New Jersey is still a holdout. 00:48:00.090 --> 00:48:05.090 So it's just the weirdest thing where I just have to go over there and I have 00:48:05.090 --> 00:48:09.650 to remember what the hell the damn pump number I'm on and go and give my credit 00:48:09.650 --> 00:48:12.610 card and a form of ID, by the way. Okay. 00:48:13.010 --> 00:48:17.230 And, you know, and I have to get my driver's license so they'll hold it while 00:48:17.230 --> 00:48:21.790 I fill up up the tank and then come back out and then, you know, 00:48:21.810 --> 00:48:25.090 then come back into the thing and then sign and get a receipt. 00:48:25.670 --> 00:48:28.950 Well, not sign, actually, just that is one thing, tap, pay, whatever, 00:48:29.130 --> 00:48:33.450 with a turnable on it. It happens, but that is the one thing. 00:48:33.530 --> 00:48:38.650 You cannot, for whatever the hell or damn reason, pay at the damn pump. 00:48:39.010 --> 00:48:42.670 And I mean, you know, it's not like, well, no, I mean, 00:48:42.670 --> 00:48:45.850 we've got this in Puerto Rico, almost any 00:48:45.850 --> 00:48:49.970 technology that we've got here or anything whatever you 00:48:49.970 --> 00:48:53.570 get there i mean you know we've got this you know 5g coverage 00:48:53.570 --> 00:48:57.650 you know it's pretty good everywhere like it's 00:48:57.650 --> 00:49:03.070 not because of cell phone signals or data connectivity or or or some banking 00:49:03.070 --> 00:49:08.390 thing whatever i mean they got all the same shit but no pay the pump and so 00:49:08.390 --> 00:49:12.430 that that has just always been like one of these things that i have to that 00:49:12.430 --> 00:49:15.210 that i do that always like Like when I go there, 00:49:15.270 --> 00:49:20.670 it just always strikes me as the weirdest thing that I have to do is to lock up. 00:49:21.210 --> 00:49:24.090 pay at a pay inside a the store. 00:49:24.090 --> 00:49:27.110 Yeah no i i don't like that anything where 00:49:27.110 --> 00:49:30.190 i have to interact with a human i mean screw that 00:49:30.190 --> 00:49:35.170 i i i don't want to i don't want to see anybody i don't want to talk to anybody 00:49:35.170 --> 00:49:41.250 like no like let me interact with the robot pump or whatever and it's enough 00:49:41.250 --> 00:49:47.090 that i have to push some buttons you know they don't don't make me talk to somebody 00:49:47.090 --> 00:49:49.290 that's just wrong and Now, however, 00:49:49.510 --> 00:49:55.190 my exception, my exception still is I resent self-checkout at the grocery store. 00:49:55.550 --> 00:50:01.510 I will always go to a human aisle, like if I have the choice. 00:50:01.550 --> 00:50:05.850 And a couple of times lately, I've gone to my grocery store and none of the 00:50:05.850 --> 00:50:07.030 human aisles have people. 00:50:07.090 --> 00:50:11.670 And the only choice is self-checkout. And I, I have checked out, 00:50:11.750 --> 00:50:14.990 but I've been sorely tempted to just leave my cart and go. 00:50:15.210 --> 00:50:17.370 Like, I just, I hate the self-checkout. 00:50:17.370 --> 00:50:20.250 I mean i i will go to i will go 00:50:20.250 --> 00:50:24.390 to self-checkout if i've got like one or two items okay you 00:50:24.390 --> 00:50:27.310 know like i grabbed a piece of you know i grabbed a pack of cheese 00:50:27.310 --> 00:50:32.190 or a little thing of milk okay fine i'll do that but if i got more than you 00:50:32.190 --> 00:50:36.150 know a couple like that the hell with that the hell am i doing i don't want 00:50:36.150 --> 00:50:40.030 to be i don't want to be doing all this work it's it's a pain in my ass yeah 00:50:40.030 --> 00:50:44.970 exactly you know and we're not very efficient at it you know i mean one thing Well. 00:50:45.710 --> 00:50:50.610 I saw an article just in the last couple of weeks how there are some grocery 00:50:50.610 --> 00:50:56.470 chains that are pulling back on the self-checkout because of the theft rate. 00:50:57.310 --> 00:51:00.790 Oh, I can imagine. It's got to be through the roof. 00:51:00.950 --> 00:51:04.710 There are just so many people who are swiping their groceries and then they'll 00:51:04.710 --> 00:51:07.990 be like, oh, well, this pack of cheese I can just put straight in the bag. 00:51:09.270 --> 00:51:13.190 Back in the car. Exactly. Yeah, it's just ridiculous. Ridiculous. 00:51:13.750 --> 00:51:17.050 I mean, I don't think it's that. I mean, it's not. 00:51:17.870 --> 00:51:20.510 I mean, if it's an order more than like two or three items, 00:51:21.760 --> 00:51:26.180 People are very slow at it. You know, they're not, they're not cranking through that. 00:51:26.360 --> 00:51:29.000 I mean, I remember when I, when I did check out on our store, 00:51:29.240 --> 00:51:33.660 you know, I mean, I'd be cranking through items like boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. 00:51:33.780 --> 00:51:37.800 I mean, I'm, you know, you give me like 10, 15 items and I knocked that out 00:51:37.800 --> 00:51:41.200 and, you know, less than 30 seconds. I mean, you know, boom, like buy a price. 00:51:41.280 --> 00:51:44.700 Well, and, and that's pretty good. Cause if you remember like back then when 00:51:44.700 --> 00:51:49.520 you were like young, it must've been those, those big cash registers with all 00:51:49.520 --> 00:51:51.860 the buttons and the crank and the like. 00:51:51.860 --> 00:51:55.040 With the buttons yeah well we 00:51:55.040 --> 00:51:59.060 had the list i told you we had the crank one okay the crank one was a little 00:51:59.060 --> 00:52:02.980 bit slower the digital one i could do faster but listen believe me i actually 00:52:02.980 --> 00:52:11.900 got very fast with that listen the push button crank one i was i was i was pretty fast with that thing i. 00:52:11.900 --> 00:52:15.460 Was actually thinking i was kidding and that would be too old for you but no. 00:52:15.460 --> 00:52:18.500 No no no at 00:52:18.500 --> 00:52:21.640 my at grandma's store we had 00:52:21.640 --> 00:52:25.280 the button button push crank push crank 00:52:25.280 --> 00:52:28.220 one you had the rows for the hundreds the ten yeah yeah 00:52:28.220 --> 00:52:31.120 the ones and i and i actually got 00:52:31.120 --> 00:52:33.940 pretty fast you know i'll go you know it's like two 00:52:33.940 --> 00:52:36.820 you know 275 was like you know you you 00:52:36.820 --> 00:52:40.580 hit the you you press the two dollar thing you press the 71 you have the five 00:52:40.580 --> 00:52:45.440 crank two you know whatever i actually got i i tell you what i was pretty quick 00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:55.280 i was pretty quick with that damn thing okay so yeah so so i yes sam i actually i used a you're. 00:52:55.280 --> 00:52:56.340 You're older than i thought. 00:52:56.340 --> 00:53:04.020 Fuck you know i i you know yes i i used the crank cash register machine. 00:53:05.140 --> 00:53:07.960 Yes, I did. I will say that. 00:53:07.980 --> 00:53:13.600 And we had, and we also had, and I used a fully mechanical typewriter. 00:53:14.040 --> 00:53:14.640 Okay. 00:53:15.590 --> 00:53:18.930 Not not electric it was fully mechanical that thing 00:53:18.930 --> 00:53:22.030 was loud like i mean holy smokes 00:53:22.030 --> 00:53:28.130 i i mean if you see these pictures of like old offices you know from like years 00:53:28.130 --> 00:53:32.370 where all these people had all these mechanical typewriters if you've seen like 00:53:32.370 --> 00:53:36.750 videos where everybody's like thwacking at those at those keys like non-stop 00:53:36.750 --> 00:53:40.670 you imagine a whole room with a couple of hundred of those machines going on at the. 00:53:40.670 --> 00:53:42.110 Same time yep i. 00:53:42.110 --> 00:53:48.070 Mean that's gotta be like i mean holy smokes what to put like earmuffs or something 00:53:48.070 --> 00:53:51.830 i mean we're gonna think only smoke so anyway self-checkout. 00:53:51.830 --> 00:53:53.350 Right good. 00:53:53.350 --> 00:53:57.630 Sometimes bad sometimes good at the pump not good at the supermarket. 00:53:57.630 --> 00:54:05.890 Yes exactly and yeah and any other store but yeah i i just i that that's just 00:54:05.890 --> 00:54:08.250 one of the areas where i actually do 00:54:08.310 --> 00:54:11.830 appreciate the human doing it for me like and 00:54:11.830 --> 00:54:15.150 i don't know and just these alternate like 00:54:15.150 --> 00:54:18.070 you know a certain company who shall not be named 00:54:18.070 --> 00:54:21.830 has experimented with just walk out stuff where they track you the whole time 00:54:21.830 --> 00:54:27.630 you're there and that's okay i still don't feel like entirely comfortable with 00:54:27.630 --> 00:54:32.130 it it just feels weird but but it's not bad like you just grab the stuff and 00:54:32.130 --> 00:54:35.190 walk out after scanning yourself in i. 00:54:35.190 --> 00:54:41.610 I did go yeah i i did there there is uh at the train station over here they have one of those. 00:54:41.610 --> 00:54:42.830 I always. 00:54:42.830 --> 00:54:43.510 Think it's weird. 00:54:43.510 --> 00:54:44.790 Yeah i. 00:54:44.790 --> 00:54:48.770 I would i actually prefer that somebody go you know. 00:54:48.770 --> 00:54:51.590 You know i bring me out i haven't done it 00:54:51.590 --> 00:54:54.550 as much there's one only like less than 00:54:54.550 --> 00:54:59.130 half a mile from my house and i've gone there occasionally from it's just a 00:54:59.130 --> 00:55:02.230 convenience store it's not like a full grocery store it's just a convenience 00:55:02.230 --> 00:55:09.210 store and it's okay but it's like it's not discernibly better from a regular 00:55:09.210 --> 00:55:14.210 convenience store it's just another convenience store it's not like something it's. 00:55:14.210 --> 00:55:15.290 Just another convenience store. 00:55:15.290 --> 00:55:21.170 It's nothing special and and actually in some cases the selection isn't quite 00:55:21.170 --> 00:55:27.610 as good as the as the other convenience store across the street so it's it's 00:55:27.610 --> 00:55:32.130 it's fine it's all right okay shall we all right we've beaten. 00:55:32.130 --> 00:55:33.630 This to death yes let's go. 00:55:33.630 --> 00:55:38.550 What have we beaten to death like we like everything we like beating things to death right listen. 00:55:38.550 --> 00:55:41.750 Everybody has been very good about beating shit to death the last few weeks. 00:55:41.750 --> 00:55:46.770 Okay so let's take including. 00:55:46.770 --> 00:55:50.410 Dogs apparently to eat and other things. 00:55:50.410 --> 00:55:54.170 Okay Okay, we're going to take a break, and when we come back, 00:55:54.170 --> 00:56:01.550 we'll be talking about actual news-related stuff, and we'll see how that goes. 00:56:03.250 --> 00:56:10.430 There's a couple topics, but there's probably one big one. So we'll be back after this. 00:56:48.380 --> 00:56:49.940 Okay, where do you want to start, Yvonne? 00:56:52.400 --> 00:56:56.820 Is it that big obvious one? Shall we start with the big obvious one or try to 00:56:56.820 --> 00:56:58.680 throw in some other stuff first? 00:56:59.180 --> 00:57:00.900 The iPhone replacement cycle? 00:57:01.580 --> 00:57:02.380 Yeah, sure. 00:57:04.060 --> 00:57:05.020 I mean... 00:57:07.500 --> 00:57:13.960 Basically, all that is is both my wife and my son had irreparable issues with 00:57:13.960 --> 00:57:17.340 their iPhones in the last week, so we had to replace two iPhones this week. 00:57:18.440 --> 00:57:26.820 So we got them all set up, except my son's iPhone, the last backup that it did 00:57:26.820 --> 00:57:29.240 automatically was a little bit too old. 00:57:29.620 --> 00:57:35.480 And so we may still take it to get it screen replaced to see if we can get into 00:57:35.480 --> 00:57:37.080 it and force it to do one last backup. 00:57:37.180 --> 00:57:43.440 Basically, the screen isn't broken, like cracked, but the screen is no longer responsive. 00:57:44.100 --> 00:57:48.460 Responsive why don't you uh could you plug it into a computer into a backup. 00:57:48.460 --> 00:57:51.200 Yes but you have to when you 00:57:51.200 --> 00:57:54.340 do that you have to sign into the phone before 00:57:54.340 --> 00:57:57.700 it will talk to the computer and this and 00:57:57.700 --> 00:58:00.520 this because it needs to authenticate and say yes do 00:58:00.520 --> 00:58:04.000 you trust this computer all that kind of crap um and so 00:58:04.000 --> 00:58:07.180 the screen is not cracked but the screen does not 00:58:07.180 --> 00:58:11.220 respond to touch anymore at all and that's 00:58:11.220 --> 00:58:14.380 no bueno and so yeah so because he's missing 00:58:14.380 --> 00:58:18.040 like a few he's missing some pictures he's missing 00:58:18.040 --> 00:58:23.800 a few things that he did in a couple games we are going to take it to a screen 00:58:23.800 --> 00:58:28.280 repair place and say hey okay the screen's not cracked but it's not responsive 00:58:28.280 --> 00:58:36.060 we're doing a cheap ass screen repair on the old phone actually fix this problem too you. 00:58:36.060 --> 00:58:37.400 Have apple care still old. 00:58:37.400 --> 00:58:40.240 It's really old this is like an iphone tanner this 00:58:40.240 --> 00:58:43.360 is way way way it's like three years past apple care 00:58:43.360 --> 00:58:46.280 okay like so because he was on my 00:58:46.280 --> 00:58:49.880 old phone he's now got a brand new current 00:58:49.880 --> 00:58:53.200 phone but he was on one of my old hand-me-down 00:58:53.200 --> 00:58:59.520 phones and it's like way way way past apple care and so it's like and so yeah 00:58:59.520 --> 00:59:04.540 like and and it's already had it screen replaced a couple times by third-party 00:59:04.540 --> 00:59:10.740 replacers because like you know once you're past apple care it's a lot. 00:59:10.740 --> 00:59:16.280 You made me check when the last last phone i've got last backup i i have okay 00:59:16.280 --> 00:59:18.500 it was it was 3 22 a.m so i'm yeah. 00:59:18.500 --> 00:59:23.980 No i and i think it was because like he was he just wasn't like, 00:59:25.090 --> 00:59:30.050 he does not have the habit of automatically plugging it in when he goes to bed at night. 00:59:30.310 --> 00:59:33.970 And like the time that it likes to back up is a night. 00:59:34.050 --> 00:59:39.070 It likes to back up if it's plugged in on wifi and it's the middle of the night 00:59:39.070 --> 00:59:40.970 is it's sort of preferred backup time. 00:59:41.110 --> 00:59:46.250 It will occasionally try other times, but like if it's, if it's low on battery 00:59:46.250 --> 00:59:50.190 and it's not plugged in, it'll be like, I'll wait. 00:59:50.530 --> 00:59:55.850 And so like the last backup was like several days old, that it had done automatically. 00:59:56.410 --> 00:59:57.590 Oh, okay. Got it. 00:59:57.990 --> 01:00:01.350 And it hadn't uploaded photos to the cloud even either. 01:00:01.550 --> 01:00:07.930 So we'll see. And I went and got him the new phone and I'm like, okay, you'll be all set. 01:00:09.410 --> 01:00:11.750 We'll restore from the backup. No problem. Blah, blah, blah. 01:00:11.810 --> 01:00:14.130 And then the backup was like four days old. It's like crap. 01:00:15.250 --> 01:00:18.050 So anyway, that was that whole topic. 01:00:18.770 --> 01:00:19.170 Okay. 01:00:19.470 --> 01:00:24.430 And my wife also needed to be replaced. And she's like, I don't know what happened. 01:00:24.510 --> 01:00:25.550 It started acting crazy. 01:00:25.770 --> 01:00:29.650 We take it to the Apple store and we were already going to replace it because 01:00:29.650 --> 01:00:33.770 hers was not as old as my son's and not as old as mine either. 01:00:33.830 --> 01:00:35.950 But I'm waiting for the 16 unless I break mine. 01:00:36.250 --> 01:00:40.950 But like they immediately were like, oh, water damage, huh? Yep. 01:00:41.330 --> 01:00:42.410 Definitely water damage. 01:00:43.030 --> 01:00:48.030 And so water damage. Yeah. And they're like, cause they are, 01:00:48.030 --> 01:00:53.470 they are by the way, and they made it this very clear. iPhones are water-resistant, not waterproof. 01:00:54.050 --> 01:00:55.110 They're not waterproof. 01:00:55.550 --> 01:00:58.290 And even though they're... 01:00:58.290 --> 01:01:01.050 Yeah, but what? Was she swimming with the iPhone? 01:01:02.350 --> 01:01:05.950 Well, no, what the, what the guy at the Apple store actually said was, 01:01:06.050 --> 01:01:11.490 Hey, like it's yes, they're water resistant, but it's really all over the place. 01:01:11.530 --> 01:01:15.010 Like some people will drop their phones into the pool and they'll be there for 01:01:15.010 --> 01:01:17.510 15, 20 minutes and they'll be absolutely fine. 01:01:17.990 --> 01:01:24.030 Other people will accidentally splash their phone and all of a sudden it'll freak out and die. 01:01:25.430 --> 01:01:28.650 You know, it's, and they said it's sort of all over the place. 01:01:28.650 --> 01:01:34.410 and that's why even like like water damage isn't covered in the same way in 01:01:34.410 --> 01:01:37.390 their warranties as everything else and they've got a little water damage sensor 01:01:37.390 --> 01:01:41.630 so they can instantly tell if it got wet and blah blah blah yeah i know. 01:01:41.630 --> 01:01:44.010 They have the water sensor yes i've seen that yes. 01:01:44.010 --> 01:01:49.430 Yeah yeah so like so anyway and and like she's like i swear i didn't drop it 01:01:49.430 --> 01:01:55.190 in the tub or anything i'm like okay yeah it got wet and she's like but they're 01:01:55.190 --> 01:01:57.890 water resistant they're waterproof they're nope Nope. Nope. Sorry. 01:01:58.150 --> 01:02:01.490 And I thought the same thing too. I was actually like, I know they're not waterproof, 01:02:01.510 --> 01:02:06.990 but I figured they're rated as water resistant to be at a certain depth for 01:02:06.990 --> 01:02:08.070 a certain amount of time. 01:02:08.350 --> 01:02:11.310 And so you don't have to worry about it if they're just like, 01:02:11.370 --> 01:02:16.090 you know, if, if they fall in something for a couple seconds or they get splashed 01:02:16.090 --> 01:02:19.490 or whatever, but apparently you do like, you should be careful. 01:02:19.570 --> 01:02:23.890 Like there's some protection, but you, you shouldn't like, just assume that 01:02:23.890 --> 01:02:25.550 it doesn't matter and you can get it. 01:02:25.550 --> 01:02:28.950 How old was her phone how old is her phone i. 01:02:28.950 --> 01:02:36.290 Think hers was a 12 no mine's a 12 i think no hers was a 13 mine's a 12. 01:02:36.290 --> 01:02:42.450 It was a two years old yeah well also water seals yeah. 01:02:42.450 --> 01:02:44.050 They degrade over time you. 01:02:44.050 --> 01:02:49.250 Know for whatever reason they degrade over time yeah i mean it's one of those 01:02:49.250 --> 01:02:54.450 Those things like with like, you know, my my my older watches where I know that 01:02:54.450 --> 01:02:57.890 I, you know, one of the reasons to take them for service is because, 01:02:58.010 --> 01:03:01.010 you know, they're older and it's like the water seals fail. 01:03:01.210 --> 01:03:08.350 And I I made the mistake already once with an old stupid me with an old watch 01:03:08.350 --> 01:03:12.710 that I had that I had not gotten serviced in years that I went into a pool and 01:03:12.710 --> 01:03:14.810 I went. It wasn't working right. 01:03:14.890 --> 01:03:17.070 And they were like, oh, water damage. I'm like, what? 01:03:17.510 --> 01:03:20.530 Oh, yeah. Yeah. You haven't gotten that service in like seven years. 01:03:20.670 --> 01:03:23.050 Yes, the water seals failed. I'm like, oh. 01:03:23.370 --> 01:03:26.690 So, of course, this is the one opportunity that for the first time in a few 01:03:26.690 --> 01:03:29.910 years, I get to tell about the story of when I lived in Florida. 01:03:30.330 --> 01:03:33.290 And I was on my like third or fourth trio. 01:03:33.970 --> 01:03:38.870 And like I was walking by the side of the pool with the trio in my hand. 01:03:39.510 --> 01:03:45.090 And I dropped it and it went into the pool. And I just dove right in after it 01:03:45.090 --> 01:03:51.010 fully dressed into the pool, dove in, got the phone at the bottom, pulled it up. 01:03:51.570 --> 01:03:55.910 And I then, of course, I dumped it in rice. I did the whole thing you were supposed 01:03:55.910 --> 01:03:56.810 to, but the phone was dead. 01:03:57.400 --> 01:04:05.020 Well, I did something similar, I will say. Look, I went in, this was in Hawaii. I remember 2007. 01:04:07.120 --> 01:04:13.020 We went to Hawaii and I was sitting on a beach chair and I had a blackberry. Okay. 01:04:13.260 --> 01:04:13.700 Okay. 01:04:14.020 --> 01:04:18.840 And I'm like, and I was just, I wasn't planning on going in the water. 01:04:19.260 --> 01:04:23.040 And my wife was like looking at the waves and they were big. 01:04:23.280 --> 01:04:28.100 And she's like, no, no, no. Come on. You need to go into the ocean with me, 01:04:28.120 --> 01:04:29.660 please, please, please, please. 01:04:29.740 --> 01:04:32.640 And after she pestered me for a whole bunch of time, fine, fine, 01:04:32.780 --> 01:04:34.580 fine. I'm going into the damn ocean. 01:04:34.980 --> 01:04:39.400 And I went to the ocean and swam. And all of a sudden, I reached out of my pocket 01:04:39.400 --> 01:04:42.500 and I forgot to take out. Oh, yeah. 01:04:42.720 --> 01:04:47.640 And I mean, look, that thing just, yeah, forget it. Salt water. Yeah. 01:04:48.440 --> 01:04:55.400 I didn't. I mean, it was. When I took it out, it was it was making some really, really not good sounds. 01:04:56.000 --> 01:05:01.540 Yeah, it started to a really, really loud pitched sound. Yeah, no. 01:05:02.220 --> 01:05:05.180 All right, we've already dithered enough. 01:05:05.840 --> 01:05:10.520 Yeah, well, let me suggest, can we figure out one other thing to dither on to 01:05:10.520 --> 01:05:11.520 finish out this segment? 01:05:11.580 --> 01:05:13.860 And then we'll just do the last segment on the Joe Biden crap, 01:05:14.020 --> 01:05:16.540 because that's the real topic, right? We all know. 01:05:17.540 --> 01:05:22.440 Is there some other non-Joe Biden thing to talk about to finish out this segment? 01:05:23.060 --> 01:05:29.240 Okay, well, okay. Okay, well, we did not touch this subject when it happened 01:05:29.240 --> 01:05:34.040 a couple of weeks ago, because I see that I think it's in the subjects that were held. 01:05:34.500 --> 01:05:39.180 Hey, we got to let go of Julian Assange. Went back to Australia. 01:05:39.920 --> 01:05:44.100 We did mention that that happened, but we did not talk about it. 01:05:44.120 --> 01:05:45.980 Do you have commentary on this? 01:05:46.740 --> 01:05:53.140 Do I have commentary on this? sort of like there was a time where like Julian 01:05:53.140 --> 01:05:56.660 Assange was a big topic that everybody you know we talked about it numerous 01:05:56.660 --> 01:06:00.520 nobody cared but by the time this actually happened he was sort of like forgotten. 01:06:01.670 --> 01:06:07.690 A couple of things. One thing is he went home on a private jet. How the hell? 01:06:08.050 --> 01:06:10.130 There are people who like him. That's all it takes. 01:06:10.470 --> 01:06:14.450 I mean, Jesus. Okay. I don't have the right people that like me. 01:06:14.490 --> 01:06:16.870 Put me on a fucking private jet. Okay. 01:06:17.230 --> 01:06:18.450 You got to work on that. 01:06:19.070 --> 01:06:25.090 Okay. I guess. And then the second thing is that I had no idea. I must admit. 01:06:25.510 --> 01:06:28.850 I mean, I know we've got American, you know, 01:06:28.850 --> 01:06:34.010 the federal court system is is expansive and so i believe we do have this federal 01:06:34.010 --> 01:06:39.150 district courts in like the u.s virgin islands i knew that but i didn't realize 01:06:39.150 --> 01:06:43.590 that we had a u.s federal court in saipan i. 01:06:43.590 --> 01:06:44.730 Guess it makes sense. 01:06:44.730 --> 01:06:51.170 No it makes sense i it's i mean when they said it i'm like you know i realized yes i mean that like. 01:06:51.170 --> 01:06:51.850 Of course we do. 01:06:51.850 --> 01:06:56.090 Of course we do i'm like i mean that totally made sense stupid of me not to 01:06:56.090 --> 01:06:59.430 realize that we had a federal, that we had a federal courthouse there. 01:06:59.510 --> 01:07:02.890 And so that's where he went and pleaded out his case. 01:07:03.070 --> 01:07:08.650 I guess he just, you know, pleaded time served and, and then they just went. 01:07:08.690 --> 01:07:12.610 Cause he, cause he's been, he, between hiding out in embassies and officially 01:07:12.610 --> 01:07:18.830 being arrested in the UK, I mean, he's been detained or his feed freedom has 01:07:18.830 --> 01:07:21.830 been restricted for many years now for many. 01:07:21.890 --> 01:07:22.430 Many years. 01:07:22.810 --> 01:07:27.990 And, and basically when you add all that It's way past whatever he would have 01:07:27.990 --> 01:07:29.790 been sentenced for for this stuff anyway. 01:07:30.550 --> 01:07:36.790 I'm just wondering what triggered this happening. It just, you know, all of a sudden. 01:07:37.650 --> 01:07:43.990 Well, there were a few things. One, it is just the time passed. 01:07:44.190 --> 01:07:48.490 But also, apparently, Australia has been lobbying for his freedom for a while. 01:07:48.850 --> 01:07:50.870 Oh, they had been. Okay. Okay. 01:07:51.110 --> 01:07:57.890 Yeah. And so Joe Biden was like, as part of, you know, working on the relationship 01:07:57.890 --> 01:08:00.530 with Australia was like, okay, fine. You can have. 01:08:00.650 --> 01:08:02.310 We'll send them out. Okay. 01:08:02.310 --> 01:08:08.550 And also his, you know, the, the, his, like, like you said, he had, 01:08:08.550 --> 01:08:10.330 he had served a bunch of time anyway. 01:08:10.690 --> 01:08:15.190 He wasn't necessarily going to be particularly useful in sort of any sort of 01:08:15.190 --> 01:08:18.930 plea deal to get more information out of him or anything else like that. 01:08:19.030 --> 01:08:21.310 So like, what are you going to do? 01:08:21.430 --> 01:08:25.030 I mean, we're going to lock them up and get moat together with Trump. 01:08:26.000 --> 01:08:29.500 Oh, is Trump in Gitmo now? I don't think so, Yvonne. 01:08:29.800 --> 01:08:34.400 Well, I mean, no, part, well, part, well, no, I mean, part of Biden's like. 01:08:34.420 --> 01:08:36.520 Oh, now that we have the new powers. Yeah. 01:08:36.880 --> 01:08:40.500 Now we have the new powers. I was figuring that, look, I mean, 01:08:40.500 --> 01:08:43.900 Biden could do just a whole roundup of people to send them to Gitmo. 01:08:44.280 --> 01:08:47.400 And so, you know, we could just send them over there, you know, 01:08:47.420 --> 01:08:50.600 I mean, I, I, I mean, i'd add 01:08:50.600 --> 01:08:54.760 like let's see send send trump matt gates 01:08:54.760 --> 01:08:57.900 lauren bobert uh oh 01:08:57.900 --> 01:09:01.680 no that sounds like a party for trump what am i saying no um 01:09:01.680 --> 01:09:04.920 what am i what am i doing no no 01:09:04.920 --> 01:09:08.720 no uh lock him up with a whole bunch of people he doesn't like like i'll send 01:09:08.720 --> 01:09:14.820 like you know i said like jd vance and you know marco rubio and you know it's 01:09:14.820 --> 01:09:18.220 just a whole bunch of people like that that are just sniveling idiots that he 01:09:18.220 --> 01:09:23.700 just finds useful that he'll get really annoyed with and just call losers real quick. 01:09:24.720 --> 01:09:26.120 Yeah. Yeah. 01:09:26.220 --> 01:09:28.020 Well, and Assange. 01:09:29.020 --> 01:09:33.620 And Assange. Let's see. Yeah. If we're doing cleanup like that, 01:09:34.320 --> 01:09:38.540 we mentioned briefly the UK elections last week, but they hadn't happened yet, 01:09:38.580 --> 01:09:40.940 so we haven't mentioned the French elections. 01:09:42.420 --> 01:09:43.180 Oh, that's right. 01:09:43.820 --> 01:09:45.000 And so... 01:09:45.000 --> 01:09:45.720 Forgot about that. 01:09:45.720 --> 01:09:55.700 So, yeah, in a surprise, the right wing did not get the expected win that they thought they would get. 01:09:56.440 --> 01:10:01.260 Partially, this is due to... And this was percolating for a while, 01:10:01.340 --> 01:10:05.360 but even with this in place, the polling did not support that the liberals were 01:10:05.360 --> 01:10:07.640 going to pull it off. But there was the... 01:10:08.980 --> 01:10:14.600 Left and center groups. This was a second round. Essentially, it was the runoffs. 01:10:14.800 --> 01:10:21.960 And basically, in most districts, the left and center picked one of them to 01:10:21.960 --> 01:10:27.860 drop out, to consolidate the non-right-wing vote to try to win. 01:10:28.120 --> 01:10:31.740 And there were some complaints heading up to the second round, 01:10:31.880 --> 01:10:35.300 that that wasn't happening in enough districts. 01:10:35.640 --> 01:10:44.100 And that specifically Macron's centrist party was holding off from doing that in certain areas. 01:10:44.200 --> 01:10:49.640 And why were they doing that? But apparently it happened in enough areas that 01:10:49.640 --> 01:10:53.880 the coalition of the center and the left 01:10:53.940 --> 01:10:59.460 managed to hold off the right-wing win that was expected. 01:10:59.900 --> 01:11:04.820 And yeah, so nobody got a majority, so they're still going to have to haggle 01:11:04.820 --> 01:11:07.920 out coalitions and all this kind of stuff. 01:11:08.120 --> 01:11:15.480 But yeah, so that happened. And it was unlike the UK, where we got pretty much 01:11:15.480 --> 01:11:18.060 the result that everyone expected given polling. 01:11:18.380 --> 01:11:23.160 In France, this was a surprise. This is not what people thought was going to happen. 01:11:23.480 --> 01:11:27.160 Well, I will say that there were some polling analysts that expected the conservatives 01:11:27.160 --> 01:11:29.580 to do even significantly worse. 01:11:29.720 --> 01:11:34.820 I think that some of the analysis that I saw expected the Tories to get- Let's 01:11:34.820 --> 01:11:36.500 not call them conservatives in this case. 01:11:36.560 --> 01:11:39.800 This is further right than conservative. 01:11:40.660 --> 01:11:42.840 I mean, the Tories, well, I'm talking- Oh. 01:11:42.860 --> 01:11:45.560 You're talking UK now. I mean, I'm talking UK. I thought you were talking France. 01:11:45.660 --> 01:11:49.540 No, no, no, no, no, not France. No, the conservatives in the UK, 01:11:49.780 --> 01:11:55.120 I mean, I saw a number of people that were doing analysis that thought they 01:11:55.120 --> 01:11:56.820 would get less than 80 seats. 01:11:57.080 --> 01:12:00.720 And they did get around 140, 150. 01:12:01.840 --> 01:12:05.280 And they're still the second biggest party. They did not come in third. 01:12:05.740 --> 01:12:08.880 Yeah, they still, they are the second biggest party. But I mean, 01:12:08.900 --> 01:12:13.720 Jesus, I mean, it's what, 300 something to like 150. 01:12:14.220 --> 01:12:18.700 I mean, it's a ridiculous margin. I mean, they have no power at all. 01:12:19.480 --> 01:12:23.660 Well, yeah. And I mean, in the UK system, if you're not the majority, 01:12:23.800 --> 01:12:27.520 you basically have no power at all, like even by one seat. But yeah. 01:12:27.860 --> 01:12:30.880 Yeah. But it's not like, yeah, but it's like, it's overwhelming. 01:12:31.380 --> 01:12:34.660 I mean, it's not like, you know, it's not even close. 01:12:35.000 --> 01:12:38.660 I know what you're talking about. But yeah, I was kind of hoping they'd come 01:12:38.660 --> 01:12:42.400 in like third. That would have been nice, but not quite. Yeah. 01:12:42.990 --> 01:12:47.650 I mean, that was like some of the expectations, but no, it didn't happen. So, so anyway, yeah. 01:12:48.390 --> 01:12:51.150 And now, now Sam is moving. 01:12:52.090 --> 01:12:55.710 I got this adjustable desk. Now I just, uh, for, first of all, 01:12:55.730 --> 01:12:59.970 for the first time I'm doing, I, so far everything in the show I've been standing 01:12:59.970 --> 01:13:04.370 up and I just like stood on my little balance board thing too. 01:13:04.490 --> 01:13:06.170 So I moved the desk a little further up. 01:13:06.170 --> 01:13:13.270 And Sam is wearing a being very Doug Emoff, uh, uh, being, uh, 01:13:13.370 --> 01:13:18.290 as, as you know, he, his shirt is a Brandy Donaghy, uh, campaign shirt. 01:13:18.710 --> 01:13:22.370 It's a Brandy Donaghy campaign shirt from two years ago. Uh, 01:13:22.390 --> 01:13:24.110 she hasn't made new ones for this cycle yet. 01:13:24.270 --> 01:13:30.750 And I, but I will say though, I am wearing, I usually save this t-shirt specifically 01:13:30.750 --> 01:13:34.430 only for campaign events to, I just put it aside. 01:13:34.550 --> 01:13:37.690 So it's always clean. So if we're going to a campaign event, I can pull it on. 01:13:38.070 --> 01:13:43.090 But this time I am wearing this because this is literally my last clean shirt. 01:13:44.450 --> 01:13:47.970 So there, there will be laundry this weekend. 01:13:49.770 --> 01:13:53.590 So laundry will be happening shortly, but yeah, this is my last, 01:13:53.630 --> 01:13:57.410 well, not my last clean shirt entirely. I have some button up shirts. 01:13:57.710 --> 01:13:59.850 But yeah, you're not, well, you're not doing that. 01:13:59.990 --> 01:14:01.590 Yeah, no, I don't want to do that. 01:14:01.590 --> 01:14:04.770 You know that you know speaking 01:14:04.770 --> 01:14:07.930 of things that was a conversation i had this week because 01:14:07.930 --> 01:14:11.690 i was at an i was at the office of all places and 01:14:11.690 --> 01:14:17.050 and man the office in san juan is okay we doubt you know a crazy thing you're 01:14:17.050 --> 01:14:21.630 gonna have to get a bigger office okay okay so many people are going to the 01:14:21.630 --> 01:14:28.630 office we can't fit okay so not by order okay just by choice so this is even 01:14:28.630 --> 01:14:31.290 crazier And the thing is, 01:14:31.290 --> 01:14:36.010 and I've noticed that the contrasting dress styles right now, 01:14:36.010 --> 01:14:37.210 especially post-pandemic, 01:14:37.330 --> 01:14:45.570 and I am definitely by far the most formally dressed person by a gal. 01:14:45.590 --> 01:14:50.770 I mean, by, by a fricking, you know, by a few AU. Okay. 01:14:51.490 --> 01:14:55.070 I'll use a cosmic metric. It's ridiculous. 01:14:56.130 --> 01:14:57.930 I, I, why am I not surprised? 01:14:59.870 --> 01:15:03.730 It's like not even like fucking close and i'm 01:15:03.730 --> 01:15:06.750 not sure i i you know i i i'm not i 01:15:06.750 --> 01:15:09.830 i'm it's not an age thing either 01:15:09.830 --> 01:15:18.230 so i i thought maybe it's my age and i'm realizing nope it's not that i i don't 01:15:18.230 --> 01:15:24.870 know yeah i am definitely by a you know several galactic measures of unit to 01:15:24.870 --> 01:15:27.790 address way more problems, 01:15:28.960 --> 01:15:34.020 everybody i'm just like this conversation going to a customer what am i wearing 01:15:34.020 --> 01:15:36.980 what the fuck you think i'm wearing i'm wearing a fucking suit i'm not showing 01:15:36.980 --> 01:15:41.360 up the fucking customer the other than a fucking suit it's not happening over 01:15:41.360 --> 01:15:43.660 my fucking dead body wait. 01:15:43.660 --> 01:15:46.760 Wait yvonne yvonne yvonne that seems underdressed no talks. 01:15:46.760 --> 01:15:52.900 No talks no talks i will say that i look i did this pens with the tie no time 01:15:52.900 --> 01:16:01.240 okay there is no time okay but i am not fucking going to a customer in anything less than a suit you. 01:16:01.240 --> 01:16:06.520 Should you should like show up in cosplay like be like dressed up as like c3po or something. 01:16:06.520 --> 01:16:11.180 Oh that would be interesting that would be quite interesting showed up to a 01:16:11.180 --> 01:16:19.180 customer you know i'm trying to figure out what the reaction is when i get the security uh yes uh like, 01:16:19.320 --> 01:16:21.600 you're like looking at me. What the fuck? 01:16:23.240 --> 01:16:27.340 I mean, I will admit that that would make me quite an interesting thing to try 01:16:27.340 --> 01:16:29.840 to pull off one of these days, trying to get a seat at 3PO's. 01:16:30.560 --> 01:16:33.640 You would stand out. You would be memorable. 01:16:34.500 --> 01:16:38.940 I'm sure that I would be standing out, yes. And I think probably at some point 01:16:38.940 --> 01:16:41.660 I would maybe take it away to some kind of mental institution, 01:16:43.760 --> 01:16:48.200 for evaluation. So anyway, hopefully not in Gitmo. Okay. 01:16:48.600 --> 01:16:55.480 I think it's time. Let's take another break and then we will talk about Joe 01:16:55.480 --> 01:16:59.400 Biden and everything surrounding that. 01:17:00.240 --> 01:17:00.920 Yes. 01:17:01.540 --> 01:17:02.000 Yes. 01:17:02.120 --> 01:17:02.720 Yes. Yes. 01:17:03.260 --> 01:17:03.940 Surrounding. 01:17:05.140 --> 01:17:05.820 Surrounding. 01:17:06.160 --> 01:17:09.840 We're going to do it in surround sound. Dolby Atmos. 01:17:10.980 --> 01:17:13.520 Yeah. Whatever. Here we go. 01:18:57.020 --> 01:19:01.140 Okay, we're back. So let me, let me just start out by saying, 01:19:01.180 --> 01:19:05.880 for those of you who are on the curmudgeons corner slack, we have obviously 01:19:05.880 --> 01:19:11.960 like all week long been going back and forth on the Joe Biden situation quite a lot. 01:19:12.460 --> 01:19:18.620 I'll say, and there there's been, this is not a unanimous group here in our 01:19:18.620 --> 01:19:20.520 opinion on the curmudgeons corner slack. 01:19:20.680 --> 01:19:26.880 There's been a lot of semi heated debate and we will probably rehash some of that. 01:19:27.020 --> 01:19:30.320 Well, nobody, no. Okay. Well, let's be clear. Well, let's be clear. 01:19:30.460 --> 01:19:33.300 Nobody, nobody has said they're going to vote for Trump. 01:19:33.620 --> 01:19:37.280 Yeah. Nobody's voting for Trump. Nobody's stormed off in anger. 01:19:37.740 --> 01:19:39.420 You know, no, no one's voting. 01:19:39.420 --> 01:19:42.400 For RFK Jr. or something. No, no. 01:19:42.840 --> 01:19:47.280 We're, we're not at each other's throats, but how, but there is not, 01:19:47.320 --> 01:19:50.760 there's not a consensus on the right way forward. Let's say that. 01:19:51.040 --> 01:19:55.020 And so if, if those of you who are on the curmudgeons corner slack, 01:19:55.020 --> 01:19:59.220 Slack hear a little bit of repetition of things you've heard either myself or 01:19:59.220 --> 01:20:01.960 Yvonne say on the Commodions Corner Slack. Sorry. 01:20:03.080 --> 01:20:07.540 Now, Yvonne and I are kind of in somewhat of agreement, though, 01:20:07.600 --> 01:20:10.880 compared to somebody else, other folks. 01:20:11.040 --> 01:20:15.560 But yes, but but let me but let me but I wanted to mention one thing before 01:20:15.560 --> 01:20:17.900 we even started on this subject. 01:20:18.140 --> 01:20:21.060 Oh, wait, one one more thing. 01:20:21.140 --> 01:20:24.700 One more thing. thing i just want to throw out there one more 01:20:24.700 --> 01:20:30.480 thing if you are not on the curmudgeons corner slack you should be so contact 01:20:30.480 --> 01:20:34.720 us we'll give all the contact stuff at the end and join us because like we had 01:20:34.720 --> 01:20:38.880 a really nice interesting healthy debate going back and forth talking about 01:20:38.880 --> 01:20:42.100 all kinds of stuff it would be great to have more people okay now we've on your turn. 01:20:42.100 --> 01:20:47.840 Well here's an interesting thing about this and i it started dawning upon me 01:20:47.840 --> 01:20:51.780 and it actually dawned upon me as as you mentioned, what our next subject is. 01:20:52.600 --> 01:20:58.300 One thing that's happened is that, you know, how many times have we been on 01:20:58.300 --> 01:21:02.860 this show that the topic of conversation has been Trump? 01:21:04.060 --> 01:21:05.340 Yes. Right. 01:21:05.440 --> 01:21:11.680 And for better or worse, okay, it isn't. 01:21:13.480 --> 01:21:16.820 It isn't. We're talking about Joe. Right. 01:21:17.120 --> 01:21:25.540 And and, you know, whatever discussion about about Trump has fallen to the wayside. 01:21:25.560 --> 01:21:30.540 Like Trump has done all kinds of crazy shit in the last two weeks, 01:21:30.600 --> 01:21:32.080 just like he does every week. 01:21:32.160 --> 01:21:37.240 But it's gotten almost no attention because everybody is obsessed with the Joe Biden situation. 01:21:38.360 --> 01:21:44.920 Well, well, to be fair, look, he did spend about 14 days playing golf before he went to an event. well. 01:21:44.920 --> 01:21:48.340 He did do that he did he took some time off but. 01:21:48.340 --> 01:21:55.340 Yeah but and and and i mean he yeah i mean he said things you know i guess what was he. 01:21:55.340 --> 01:22:00.360 Said things he's done things he he's been confused about things he's lied he 01:22:00.360 --> 01:22:03.600 hasn't made sense but you know the thing is everybody. 01:22:03.600 --> 01:22:06.860 That's that's like but it's that the thing is that's. 01:22:06.860 --> 01:22:08.580 Like every day so people are bored. 01:22:08.580 --> 01:22:13.360 Every fucking day for trump up and they just tune it out right every day for 01:22:13.360 --> 01:22:16.880 seven years of this shit you know yeah. 01:22:16.880 --> 01:22:23.000 So you can't make news with like oh trump lied today or trump said something outrageous or. 01:22:23.000 --> 01:22:27.840 Or or trump confused someone's name i was remembering one that was like hilarious 01:22:27.840 --> 01:22:30.120 like what he called tim cook tim apple yep. 01:22:30.120 --> 01:22:31.940 Tim apple good old tim apple. 01:22:31.940 --> 01:22:38.620 For example and and good old tim apple and like i don't know he He called Melania 01:22:38.620 --> 01:22:39.980 something else. Mercedes. 01:22:40.180 --> 01:22:42.820 He called his wife something else. 01:22:43.580 --> 01:22:43.900 Mm-hmm. 01:22:44.560 --> 01:22:46.100 I mean, I'm like... 01:22:46.940 --> 01:22:54.420 I do that all the time. I get my wife, my dog, and my son confused all the time. 01:22:54.580 --> 01:23:03.540 I get my mom. It happens to be more with my mom, where I call her my wife. 01:23:04.200 --> 01:23:07.320 I'm like, oh, Jesus Christ. I'm like, what the fuck? 01:23:07.500 --> 01:23:07.940 Okay. 01:23:10.800 --> 01:23:14.280 I don't even mention calling my wife mom, 01:23:14.660 --> 01:23:20.640 because at this point, Once I had kids, I got used to calling her mom because 01:23:20.640 --> 01:23:25.820 I'm referring to her from my kid's perspective. Like, go talk to mom. 01:23:27.480 --> 01:23:34.240 But she's not my mom. My mom is elsewhere. She did stuff. 01:23:34.880 --> 01:23:39.900 She went and did stuff with my son today. But no, I am so bad with names. 01:23:40.040 --> 01:23:41.140 I get them screwed up all the time. 01:23:41.140 --> 01:23:47.780 Yeah. So, so anyway, so, so, so Biden has been getting all the attention, but here's the thing. 01:23:48.320 --> 01:23:53.140 You do realize that at the last week, especially the last couple of days, 01:23:53.400 --> 01:23:55.520 you know, the attention has been good. 01:23:55.520 --> 01:23:59.260 Yes because you know 01:23:59.260 --> 01:24:02.000 the whole cycle of this thing obviously we had 01:24:02.000 --> 01:24:05.340 a really bad debate and there was 01:24:05.340 --> 01:24:11.680 the spiral of negative attention surrounding that but the last few times he's 01:24:11.680 --> 01:24:19.780 been on like the conversation about it like specifically right now we've got 01:24:19.780 --> 01:24:23.020 two things he did the press conference at the, well, 01:24:23.140 --> 01:24:26.920 he did Stephanopoulos, but that was a week ago. That was sort of mixed reviews on that. 01:24:27.000 --> 01:24:31.420 But like, then he did the press conference after NATO. 01:24:31.920 --> 01:24:35.360 And then just a few hours ago, he did a rally in Michigan. 01:24:35.920 --> 01:24:42.720 The, for both of those, well, some media criticism coming here in a second, 01:24:42.760 --> 01:24:47.160 but for both of those, it was like, wow, he did a really great job. 01:24:47.400 --> 01:24:50.740 And there was a lot of conversation about how he really did really well. 01:24:50.840 --> 01:24:54.120 He was articulate, blah, blah, blah. He knew what he was talking about. 01:24:54.300 --> 01:24:59.160 He was forceful, blah, blah, blah. And then rapidly pivoting to, 01:24:59.260 --> 01:25:03.380 oh, but he did do a few verbal flubs during it. 01:25:03.600 --> 01:25:08.280 And this probably isn't enough. He's in such a deep hole that, 01:25:08.340 --> 01:25:11.520 yeah, he gave a good speech. Yeah, he did a good press conference, 01:25:11.700 --> 01:25:15.020 but it's not enough to turn things around. He's still in deep, deep trouble. 01:25:15.940 --> 01:25:22.420 You know, as I and I, you know, the one, you know, I've done I mean, 01:25:22.460 --> 01:25:26.240 I've done a couple of things looking back through history about what's happened 01:25:26.240 --> 01:25:28.120 with presidents and whatnot. 01:25:28.400 --> 01:25:32.520 I mean, one thing that I knew factually was what's happened with incumbent presidents 01:25:32.520 --> 01:25:35.160 going back decades. I did that off. 01:25:35.380 --> 01:25:38.660 I went and I summarized it off the top of my head. 01:25:38.720 --> 01:25:44.260 And what's what's happened and who's won and who's lost and why or and so forth. 01:25:44.260 --> 01:25:48.220 So, so, you know, that's one thing, but the one that I, I really, 01:25:48.300 --> 01:25:53.940 I mean, I, we all remember that Truman, you know, one in 48. Okay. 01:25:55.380 --> 01:25:58.320 The, the famous newspaper photo, blah, blah, blah. 01:25:58.560 --> 01:26:02.420 The, the famous newspaper, what do we defeat Truman? We all know that. 01:26:02.900 --> 01:26:07.040 But one thing that I, I guess I, I didn't remember, and I got a refresher from 01:26:07.040 --> 01:26:12.080 Peggy Noonan, who was a Reagan speech, speech writer who actually actively supports, 01:26:12.200 --> 01:26:13.580 but that Biden stay in the race. 01:26:14.360 --> 01:26:22.540 i didn't realize that the path for him to get the nomination was absolutely chaotic oh. 01:26:22.540 --> 01:26:24.000 The the the one in 80. 01:26:24.000 --> 01:26:29.440 No no no no 84 i'm talking about truman oh. 01:26:29.440 --> 01:26:32.060 Truman i thought you were talking reagan now you're confused. 01:26:32.060 --> 01:26:36.320 No i didn't jump back i said that peggy noonan wrote this article about about 01:26:36.320 --> 01:26:40.840 what what happened leading up to that election okay. 01:26:40.840 --> 01:26:44.480 Go go for it refresh me because i don't remember off the top of my head either. 01:26:44.480 --> 01:26:47.180 Well i didn't remember and i and i and 01:26:47.180 --> 01:26:50.240 i shared the article in our in our slack but 01:26:50.240 --> 01:26:53.520 it basically talked that that i mean they were getting they 01:26:53.520 --> 01:26:56.300 were arguing they wanted truman not to be on 01:26:56.300 --> 01:26:59.500 the ticket they they went to the convention they 01:26:59.500 --> 01:27:02.220 were it was a mess they were trying to get 01:27:02.220 --> 01:27:05.640 him off the ticket and and he and 01:27:05.640 --> 01:27:08.440 everybody and every pundit said that he was going 01:27:08.440 --> 01:27:11.120 to lose and that that was the 01:27:11.120 --> 01:27:15.140 whole reason why at the end there was like that whole you know all the information 01:27:15.140 --> 01:27:20.400 no he's he's going to lose he's going to lose and they called it they they were 01:27:20.400 --> 01:27:28.820 calling it for for him and lo and behold it it it it wasn't the case you know 01:27:28.820 --> 01:27:30.060 and i'm trying I'm trying to find it, 01:27:30.120 --> 01:27:32.660 but we, you know, because I did share the, the, 01:27:32.740 --> 01:27:37.300 the article and it was, it was in the wall street journals opinion piece by 01:27:37.300 --> 01:27:41.980 Peggy Noonan and I'm trying to, uh, God, I'm trying to find it now. 01:27:42.660 --> 01:27:45.080 Hold on. Uh, okay. 01:27:46.240 --> 01:27:50.080 It is sharing on the Slack, but unfortunately, we talked way too much on the Slack. 01:27:50.280 --> 01:27:53.760 I don't actually remember it. I don't actually. I might have missed it because 01:27:53.760 --> 01:27:55.340 there was so much other conversation happening. 01:27:55.520 --> 01:28:02.960 I think that it may have been or shit. I thought maybe I did send it and I didn't. 01:28:03.040 --> 01:28:10.620 I did send it right when I there was the I did share the image of of Dewey defeating 01:28:10.620 --> 01:28:17.280 truman and i thought that i shared the story but i guess i didn't no i did but 01:28:17.280 --> 01:28:21.820 i did not i did not i did not so so hold on once. 01:28:21.820 --> 01:28:25.300 Again and i'm gonna keep repeating this phrase for the rest of the campaign 01:28:25.300 --> 01:28:29.220 season probably you are showing your biden-esque. 01:28:29.220 --> 01:28:35.000 The dementia yes and and the story The story was, if Democrats are wise, 01:28:35.300 --> 01:28:36.720 they'll embrace the chaos. 01:28:37.040 --> 01:28:47.260 Okay. All right. Okay. And she went on to summarize how that was completely chaotic. 01:28:47.640 --> 01:28:52.820 Okay. That it was just like this. You know, let's see. 01:28:53.300 --> 01:28:56.480 The real, you know, let me see. 01:28:57.660 --> 01:29:02.840 I'm getting to. Here is a story of a party that was a mess, destroyed, 01:29:03.120 --> 01:29:04.240 riven, and without hope. 01:29:04.340 --> 01:29:08.400 The Democratic Party of 1948 was a train wreck wrapped in a dumpster fire encased 01:29:08.400 --> 01:29:10.740 in the Marconi Room of the Titanic. 01:29:11.040 --> 01:29:14.080 Its left wing split and formed a progressive party whose leader, 01:29:14.200 --> 01:29:16.480 Henry Wallace, became the presidential candidate. 01:29:16.660 --> 01:29:20.140 The right wing, the mighty Southern Sucker Gingers, stormed out during the party 01:29:20.140 --> 01:29:23.200 convention and decided to run their own presidential candidate, Strom Thurmond. 01:29:23.480 --> 01:29:25.920 Oh, yeah, Strom Thurmond. Yes, okay. 01:29:25.920 --> 01:29:29.540 The New Deal coalition that lasted 16 years had fallen apart. 01:29:30.160 --> 01:29:34.660 President Harry S. Truman, 64, at the peak of his powers, was at the bottom of the polls. 01:29:34.780 --> 01:29:38.080 Party leaders couldn't help him make his convention a success because they were 01:29:38.080 --> 01:29:41.640 too busy trying to draft Dwight Eisenhower to take his place. 01:29:42.000 --> 01:29:45.400 The convention opened on July 12th during an oppressive heat wave. 01:29:45.500 --> 01:29:47.680 The huge crowds that were expected didn't come. 01:29:48.120 --> 01:29:51.840 David McCollum in the biography Truman noted local cab drivers complained they 01:29:51.840 --> 01:29:52.540 had the wrong convention. 01:29:52.870 --> 01:29:56.570 Riggs, they should have given us hearses. Floor fights broke out. 01:29:56.630 --> 01:29:57.790 The Dixiecrats marched. 01:29:57.970 --> 01:30:00.650 The convention was pathetically bogged down in its own gloom. 01:30:00.670 --> 01:30:02.730 Speeches were long and windy, the balloting long. 01:30:03.090 --> 01:30:06.350 Truman arrived at 9.15 p.m. for his acceptance speech. 01:30:06.490 --> 01:30:09.690 He didn't go on until almost two in the morning. To make matters worse, 01:30:09.930 --> 01:30:14.050 before he spoke, the convention had to watch a former senator's sister unveil 01:30:14.050 --> 01:30:16.670 a special treat, a six-foot-tall Liberty Bell. 01:30:16.790 --> 01:30:21.070 She'd construct it containing 48 pigeons designated as doves of peace. 01:30:21.070 --> 01:30:24.930 They would fly majestically through the air as the span truck up the hail to 01:30:24.930 --> 01:30:27.790 the sheath, but they had been cooped up in their heat for hours, 01:30:27.830 --> 01:30:29.970 and when the belt opened, some of them dropped out dead. 01:30:30.330 --> 01:30:35.030 The rest distraught flew wildly through the hall, smashing at the television 01:30:35.030 --> 01:30:36.590 lights, rafters, and drapes. 01:30:37.030 --> 01:30:41.190 Historian Dave Drewser writes, they died bomb delegates. Men and women shouted, 01:30:41.370 --> 01:30:43.870 watch your clothes. Some bitches went for the podium. 01:30:44.210 --> 01:30:47.510 Convention chairman Sam Rayburn frantically shushed them away. 01:30:47.510 --> 01:30:50.330 one nearly landing on his glistening ball head 01:30:50.330 --> 01:30:53.190 another headed straight for the plates this would be great if 01:30:53.190 --> 01:30:56.210 we got this a plates of a 36 electric inch 01:30:56.210 --> 01:31:01.590 electric fan saved from filleting only by rayburn's quick action get those damn 01:31:01.590 --> 01:31:07.370 bitches out of here he screamed over live radio and tv this was actually on 01:31:07.370 --> 01:31:14.110 live okay truman had prepared a formal speech and went from bullet points the The crowd loved it. 01:31:14.250 --> 01:31:18.810 I judge it the worst of his career, snotty, militant, and more than a little 01:31:18.810 --> 01:31:22.050 demagogic. But up against it, he showed plenty of fight. 01:31:22.190 --> 01:31:25.270 McCullough said critics on the left and the right found themselves grudgingly 01:31:25.270 --> 01:31:28.570 moved by such nerve and audacity in the face of odds. 01:31:28.570 --> 01:31:36.850 And so we know, and it talks more about it, but bottom line is that I had not 01:31:36.850 --> 01:31:43.050 realized how chaotic it was that year, 01:31:43.190 --> 01:31:49.710 and that somehow Truman wound up pulling it out and winning anyway. 01:31:51.930 --> 01:31:57.030 So what she is arguing is that— Is. 01:31:57.030 --> 01:31:57.990 Have the open convention. 01:31:57.990 --> 01:32:00.630 This chaos is not bad. 01:32:01.330 --> 01:32:01.350 Right. 01:32:01.590 --> 01:32:05.410 You know, that it probably is a positive. 01:32:05.510 --> 01:32:15.770 And, you know, this isn't the disaster that people are thinking it is. 01:32:16.730 --> 01:32:19.930 The romantics are right and are seeing the situation clearly. 01:32:20.090 --> 01:32:23.030 They aren't innocent. They understand the chaos that will ensue. 01:32:23.090 --> 01:32:27.610 But they know what U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq used to say, embrace the suck. 01:32:27.990 --> 01:32:30.970 Open this up. Take a chance. You may electrify America. 01:32:31.190 --> 01:32:37.430 And so, you know, I did not realize that Truman's path to that victory was that 01:32:37.430 --> 01:32:42.030 was that fraught with that much chaos and with calls. 01:32:42.150 --> 01:32:46.970 And but no, but but yeah, with calls of drafting somebody to replace the top 01:32:46.970 --> 01:32:51.390 of the ticket, the arguments and the whatever. And you know what wound up? 01:32:52.230 --> 01:32:57.370 Still winning the presidency. I think, you know, but I had gone later through 01:32:57.370 --> 01:33:06.270 a list of practically you go through every you go through all the reelections. 01:33:06.830 --> 01:33:15.370 And, you know, the one thing is that nobody with the ones that lost for reelection, 01:33:15.490 --> 01:33:20.630 all of those had so many things going against them. 01:33:20.630 --> 01:33:23.850 that biden actually has as positives i. 01:33:23.850 --> 01:33:24.970 Mean this. 01:33:24.970 --> 01:33:29.530 Is like a vibe session like somebody was talking about this there is no recession 01:33:29.530 --> 01:33:31.530 the economy isn't tanking. 01:33:31.530 --> 01:33:34.210 There's this one historian i forget the one who has 01:33:34.210 --> 01:33:41.590 like the keys like yeah yeah yeah he he sort of lists like these 12 items that 01:33:41.590 --> 01:33:45.610 affect whether or not you know who wins or loses in presidential elections and 01:33:45.610 --> 01:33:49.510 he's like i've got got a better track record with these keys than any of these 01:33:49.510 --> 01:33:53.110 pollsters or anything like that. They're the kinds of things you're talking about. 01:33:53.150 --> 01:33:58.010 What people typically call fundamentals, like is the economy good during the 01:33:58.010 --> 01:34:00.530 election year? Are they an incumbent? 01:34:01.050 --> 01:34:06.490 Do they have X going for them, Y going for them, Z going for them? There's a whole list. 01:34:06.770 --> 01:34:12.090 And they're sort of the things that are not, they're not just measuring like, 01:34:12.190 --> 01:34:15.630 oh, who's up and who's down in the polls. But it's basically saying there are 01:34:15.630 --> 01:34:18.210 these factors that generally affect elections. 01:34:18.530 --> 01:34:22.830 And more often than not, you can guess the outcome based on. 01:34:23.390 --> 01:34:28.330 Well, Bloomberg also did a summary of like 10 factors, you know, 01:34:28.350 --> 01:34:36.550 going into this one compared with other presidencies. And like Biden basically had nine out of 10. 01:34:36.650 --> 01:34:40.070 And even the one that that that maybe Trump had a little bit of an edge on, 01:34:40.110 --> 01:34:41.050 you could dispute. beaut. 01:34:41.130 --> 01:34:45.430 I mean, it's just, you're looking at it and it's like, what are these things that, 01:34:46.280 --> 01:34:52.380 Then it's like, man, I mean, it's just the guys that have this just don't lose, 01:34:52.700 --> 01:34:55.340 even if there is infighting, even if there is whatever. 01:34:55.900 --> 01:35:00.320 Okay. So the keys that I was talking about. 01:35:00.460 --> 01:35:01.060 Okay. 01:35:01.100 --> 01:35:03.520 The historian is Alan Lichtman. 01:35:03.600 --> 01:35:03.880 Okay. 01:35:03.920 --> 01:35:13.660 And it was co-developed by him and a Russian geophysicist named Vladimir Kelisborok in 1981. 01:35:14.580 --> 01:35:15.660 Wow. Okay. 01:35:16.280 --> 01:35:21.360 It is apparently modified off prediction methods that were originally used for earthquakes. 01:35:21.920 --> 01:35:22.660 Oh, nice. 01:35:23.060 --> 01:35:27.440 Weird. But anyway, it's called the keys to the White House. And there are 13 keys. 01:35:27.720 --> 01:35:33.080 And let me read them off. Number one, a party mandate, which is based on after 01:35:33.080 --> 01:35:37.400 the midterms, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives 01:35:37.400 --> 01:35:38.940 than after the previous midterm. 01:35:39.060 --> 01:35:43.000 So Democrats do not have that one. No primary contest. 01:35:43.480 --> 01:35:49.560 Yes, on that one. incumbent seeing seeking re-election yes on that one no third 01:35:49.560 --> 01:35:52.140 party don't have that one well. 01:35:52.140 --> 01:35:57.300 We got the rfk junior dumbass. 01:35:57.300 --> 01:36:02.580 He is a he is being he's a stronger third party position than we've had in years 01:36:02.580 --> 01:36:07.420 so he counts you know so that counts yeah but i. 01:36:07.420 --> 01:36:12.140 Don't know well here's a question i still don't have how many states is is he going to be on the ballot. 01:36:12.140 --> 01:36:17.340 It's it's not gonna him i don't know he's he still says he's gonna be on a lot 01:36:17.340 --> 01:36:20.480 but like some of them are disputed and no. 01:36:20.480 --> 01:36:22.140 No no what does he says what's the reality. 01:36:22.140 --> 01:36:27.960 I don't know i don't know the the thing is though here here's the he has no chance of isn't. 01:36:27.960 --> 01:36:33.180 He passed for a lot of isn't he passed already a lot of deadlines for for being on ballots. 01:36:33.180 --> 01:36:38.160 Oh well here's here's the here's the thing is it's not like he's got a chance 01:36:38.160 --> 01:36:43.120 of winning but he's going to be on the ballot on some of the swing states Well. 01:36:43.120 --> 01:36:43.760 That's the question. 01:36:43.920 --> 01:36:50.220 And he can make the difference. All it has to do is he has to take votes from one side or the other. 01:36:50.220 --> 01:36:52.860 Is he going to be on all the swing states? I mean, that's the question. 01:36:52.860 --> 01:36:57.780 I think he might end up on all of the swing states, or at least most of them. 01:36:58.100 --> 01:37:02.840 Anyway, strong short-term economy, basically not in recession. We got that. 01:37:03.220 --> 01:37:09.300 Strong long-term economy, real per capita economic growth equals or exceeds 01:37:09.300 --> 01:37:13.160 mean growth during the previous two terms. I think that's going to be true. 01:37:13.480 --> 01:37:18.980 Major policy change that the incumbent did. You can argue that one. 01:37:19.700 --> 01:37:24.640 No social unrest, no scandal, no foreign military failure, major foreign military 01:37:24.640 --> 01:37:28.120 success, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic challenger. 01:37:28.220 --> 01:37:31.800 Now, Biden does not have all of those, but he has more than he doesn't. 01:37:32.540 --> 01:37:40.460 And so I'm always a little bit wary of ones like this that try to aggregate 01:37:40.460 --> 01:37:44.240 everything into sort of these large factors rather than the specifics, 01:37:44.400 --> 01:37:46.460 because I think personality and stuff does matter. 01:37:46.680 --> 01:37:52.480 But anyway, the point is there are arguments like this, and you were hitting some of those. 01:37:53.080 --> 01:37:57.660 Yeah, and I mean, the one that Bloomberg had pulled up, there were 10 different 01:37:57.660 --> 01:38:00.120 metrics that they had pulled up. 01:38:00.120 --> 01:38:05.800 for example, healthcare signups, where, you know, right now we are at north 01:38:05.800 --> 01:38:09.860 of 90%, which is better than, I mean, it's better than ever, 01:38:09.940 --> 01:38:13.820 like right now, you know, in this century. 01:38:14.500 --> 01:38:18.560 You know, so that's one. Salary increases, outpacing inflation, 01:38:18.840 --> 01:38:23.460 that one's also one that is, I mean, that's also better than ever, 01:38:23.560 --> 01:38:26.900 by the way, in this century. 01:38:27.560 --> 01:38:29.080 Jobs created as well. 01:38:30.120 --> 01:38:34.500 That inflation has been coming down big time uh you 01:38:34.500 --> 01:38:37.960 know investment manufacturing a personal 01:38:37.960 --> 01:38:41.440 wealth narrowing inequality i mean 01:38:41.440 --> 01:38:49.700 you know stock market that's booming crime that is down i mean shit i mean it's 01:38:49.700 --> 01:38:54.740 it's it's all of those the only one that they were saying and i dispute a little 01:38:54.740 --> 01:38:59.380 bit like you know if this is a good metric is is the issues with encounters at the southern border. 01:39:00.280 --> 01:39:05.900 And the reason why that one, to me, I always say it's a little bit suspect is 01:39:05.900 --> 01:39:10.160 because, I mean, you're counting apprehensions. 01:39:10.720 --> 01:39:13.700 I mean, you know what? You could argue 01:39:13.700 --> 01:39:17.280 that 20 years ago, we just weren't apprehending a lot of these people. 01:39:17.380 --> 01:39:22.260 So counting the encounters is not really exactly a great metric of what the 01:39:22.260 --> 01:39:23.640 situation is on the border. 01:39:23.720 --> 01:39:25.380 Right, because you don't know how many you're missing. 01:39:25.900 --> 01:39:29.940 Exactly. So I think that that metric is bogus. 01:39:30.400 --> 01:39:36.880 It's just not – it just may mean that you were doing a very good job at what 01:39:36.880 --> 01:39:40.680 they were supposed to be doing in terms of immigration. 01:39:40.760 --> 01:39:46.580 So I just – so that's the one that basically – but it's like you're looking through this. 01:39:46.640 --> 01:39:51.900 It's like you haven't had a president. Right. 01:39:52.650 --> 01:40:01.530 in in history with this kind of stuff lose i mean hell we talk about inarticulate 01:40:01.530 --> 01:40:04.790 man come on does anybody remember w yeah. 01:40:04.790 --> 01:40:10.410 Yeah but like at the same time i want to let me just give the summary that everybody's 01:40:10.410 --> 01:40:13.570 putting out to counter that and why everybody's sort of freaking out about well 01:40:13.570 --> 01:40:16.990 one of many reasons people are freaking out about biden well people are. 01:40:16.990 --> 01:40:20.190 Freaking out basically because trump is the other candidate let's start off with that it's just. 01:40:20.190 --> 01:40:24.550 Well as trump Trump is the other candidate. We had the really bad debate performance. 01:40:24.870 --> 01:40:30.430 Lots of people think the really bad debate performance is an indicator of underlying 01:40:30.430 --> 01:40:34.790 problems with Joe Biden that are just going to get worse over time, et cetera, et cetera. 01:40:34.930 --> 01:40:42.670 But specifically looking at polls, the fundamental situation is that Joe Biden 01:40:42.670 --> 01:40:46.010 has been behind in a long time, national polls. 01:40:46.190 --> 01:40:50.910 He's He only had a very narrow window where he was very slightly ahead on national 01:40:50.910 --> 01:40:53.510 polls before the debate happened and that reversed. 01:40:53.810 --> 01:41:01.350 And on state level polls, he has been behind consistently in the swing state 01:41:01.350 --> 01:41:04.670 polls, you know, for months and months and months. 01:41:04.870 --> 01:41:10.510 From my point of view, he, from looking at election graphs, he's been behind 01:41:10.510 --> 01:41:12.630 since roughly October of last year. 01:41:13.410 --> 01:41:16.150 And you know when i like and i'll do my 01:41:16.150 --> 01:41:21.410 election graphs and thing like last week i introduced my like amount of time 01:41:21.410 --> 01:41:29.630 left probabilities that has gotten a lot worse in the last week as new state 01:41:29.630 --> 01:41:35.490 polls have come out uh first of all my tipping point where he had gotten it down like right 01:41:35.570 --> 01:41:38.750 before the debate, 01:41:39.090 --> 01:41:44.910 he had gotten the tipping point down to Trump only being ahead by 1.1%, 01:41:44.910 --> 01:41:50.270 which was the best since late October. Okay. 01:41:51.110 --> 01:41:57.010 It is now up to Trump being ahead by 4.9% in the tipping point state. 01:41:57.570 --> 01:42:03.030 That's a big difference. It's a four point swing over the the course of like a couple of weeks. 01:42:03.490 --> 01:42:07.890 Now we can dispute like how much of that was the debate itself versus how much 01:42:07.890 --> 01:42:09.630 of it was the reaction to the debate. 01:42:09.690 --> 01:42:13.450 But either way, it's a big swing in that direction. 01:42:13.690 --> 01:42:21.310 And percentage wise in my uniform swing, accounting for time left before the 01:42:21.310 --> 01:42:23.670 election that moved him from. 01:42:24.650 --> 01:42:33.690 Right before the debate, a 43% chance of winning to now an 8% chance of winning, 01:42:33.830 --> 01:42:37.470 according to my thing. Now, here's the thing here. 01:42:37.550 --> 01:42:42.290 You know, I just pulled up here. I'll put I'll put up your I'll pull my counterpoint 01:42:42.290 --> 01:42:45.070 here. Twenty six. Twenty sixteen. 01:42:45.970 --> 01:42:46.010 Yeah. 01:42:46.090 --> 01:42:52.530 You know what? But on this day, on this day, 2016, in FiveThirtyEight.com, 01:42:52.610 --> 01:42:57.870 July 12th, Hillary Clinton had a 77.4% chance of winning and Donald Trump had 01:42:57.870 --> 01:42:59.690 a 22.5% chance of winning. 01:42:59.930 --> 01:43:00.410 Right. 01:43:00.790 --> 01:43:06.930 And the whole thing about it is that the election doesn't fucking happen today. 01:43:07.590 --> 01:43:11.510 Well, no. Well, my odds were not if the election was held today. It takes into account. 01:43:11.510 --> 01:43:18.430 But listen, the thing is that your data isn't a crystal ball. 01:43:18.570 --> 01:43:20.610 You can make all the financial... 01:43:20.610 --> 01:43:24.290 No, no. Well, and that's the thing. Very famously, very famously, 01:43:24.350 --> 01:43:28.170 and I've said this over and over again, if you took all the people who are giving 01:43:28.170 --> 01:43:33.830 odds in 2016, the average for Donald Trump was 14%. 14% is not zero. 01:43:34.450 --> 01:43:35.650 14% is not zero. 01:43:35.990 --> 01:43:41.070 You just have to have the right set of things happen. The polls are wrong in the right direction. 01:43:41.510 --> 01:43:48.090 You have last minute moves. You have whatever, like 14% is not zero. 01:43:48.190 --> 01:43:53.830 Neither is 8%. And there are a variety of ways that you can potentially come back from that. 01:43:54.050 --> 01:43:58.350 It's just, if you had to bet right now, you would bet on Donald Trump. 01:43:59.190 --> 01:44:02.190 But, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's not. 01:44:02.390 --> 01:44:08.550 I guess it's not, I'm just, I, you know, look, I, I don't, look, I don't agree. 01:44:08.730 --> 01:44:14.990 And I'll tell you why. It was the same reason why, for example, when I was like in 2020, 01:44:15.630 --> 01:44:23.630 you know, I'll tell you what, I mean, I felt even though Biden had a lead the 01:44:23.630 --> 01:44:26.790 whole fucking way nervous about it. Yeah. 01:44:27.090 --> 01:44:32.630 Well, here's the thing this time, like by last time and in 2016, 01:44:32.830 --> 01:44:39.370 Trump never had a lead in the polls ever. ever like in either one of those years. 01:44:39.670 --> 01:44:40.210 Yeah. 01:44:40.290 --> 01:44:41.630 This time, uh, 01:44:42.320 --> 01:44:49.780 Biden has barely ever had a lead. And yet we know the poll errors could go the 01:44:49.780 --> 01:44:52.240 opposite direction than they've gone the last two years. 01:44:52.400 --> 01:44:54.760 But the last two years, they underestimated Republicans. 01:44:55.460 --> 01:45:02.600 But let me back off, because I also think, well, I think we should step back 01:45:02.600 --> 01:45:07.360 just a second and go over what's happened this last week. Yeah. 01:45:07.440 --> 01:45:12.500 And then we can sort of make our predictions about the future and what's going to happen. 01:45:12.640 --> 01:45:19.360 But basically, when we last spoke, Biden had done his interview with, 01:45:19.660 --> 01:45:21.980 what's his name? It was Stephanopoulos. 01:45:22.280 --> 01:45:25.400 Stephanopoulos. um and sort of 01:45:25.400 --> 01:45:28.160 everybody agreed that he did okay but there 01:45:28.160 --> 01:45:31.060 was a lot of talk that well yeah he did okay but not 01:45:31.060 --> 01:45:33.860 necessarily good enough and so this stuff is 01:45:33.860 --> 01:45:36.920 going to continue i believe i actually said that i 01:45:36.920 --> 01:45:39.880 thought this was going to linger on for at least another week 01:45:39.880 --> 01:45:42.560 before it got closed down in one way or 01:45:42.560 --> 01:45:45.920 another monday tuesday of this 01:45:45.920 --> 01:45:50.980 last week there were actually lots of reports about how the people in Congress 01:45:50.980 --> 01:45:58.400 who were pushing for Joe Biden to get out were demoralized and feeling like 01:45:58.400 --> 01:46:04.420 they'd lost because Joe Biden had stated fairly forcefully that he was staying in. 01:46:04.560 --> 01:46:08.740 He sent a letter that he was staying in, and they felt like their efforts to 01:46:08.740 --> 01:46:10.280 convince him were fizzling. 01:46:10.400 --> 01:46:16.740 Because everybody sort of realizes, by the way, there is not a mechanism to 01:46:16.740 --> 01:46:20.820 push Joe Joe Biden out if he doesn't want to go. 01:46:21.600 --> 01:46:27.220 You know, basically all of the ways that result in something else involved Joe 01:46:27.220 --> 01:46:30.100 Biden specifically saying I'm out. 01:46:30.120 --> 01:46:34.200 I released my delegates, you know, and he said no. 01:46:34.300 --> 01:46:37.200 And so Monday, Tuesday of this week, like. 01:46:37.890 --> 01:46:42.030 There were numerous reports that this was sort of fizzling out and people were 01:46:42.030 --> 01:46:43.790 resigning themselves to Joe Biden. 01:46:43.830 --> 01:46:46.930 They weren't necessarily happy about it, but they were resigning themselves 01:46:46.930 --> 01:46:49.370 to the idea that, yeah, this is what's going to happen. 01:46:49.670 --> 01:46:52.570 But then a couple of things happened. 01:46:53.010 --> 01:47:00.250 One, Nancy Pelosi went on Morning Joe and was like, you know, 01:47:00.370 --> 01:47:02.970 I will respect Joe Biden's decision. 01:47:03.170 --> 01:47:06.410 It's really up to him. And the host pointed out, well, he's already made a decision. 01:47:06.410 --> 01:47:11.410 And she's like, well, yeah, I'll respect his decision when he makes it. 01:47:11.590 --> 01:47:20.450 You know, basically like not acknowledging or recognizing that he, I saw the video. 01:47:20.530 --> 01:47:24.250 At first I saw the quote and I'm like, ah, is she just like, what did she mean here? 01:47:24.330 --> 01:47:28.270 And then she sort of walked it back later. But looking at the whole like sequence 01:47:28.270 --> 01:47:32.670 of events and knowing that Nancy Pelosi has a history of being very, 01:47:32.710 --> 01:47:34.530 very deliberate with her words, 01:47:34.690 --> 01:47:39.730 I think she absolutely knew she was throwing a grenade back into things and 01:47:39.730 --> 01:47:44.350 saying like, you know, and basically pretending that he had not made a decision 01:47:44.350 --> 01:47:48.890 yet and indicating that he still had time to change his mind when, 01:47:48.950 --> 01:47:52.150 in fact, he'd already come out and said, I made my decision. I'm staying in. 01:47:53.070 --> 01:47:58.690 Well, I have seen that both her and Hakeem Jeffries have been very coy with 01:47:58.690 --> 01:47:59.950 the language they have been using. 01:48:00.270 --> 01:48:05.770 Yes, they have. But here's the thing. If they wanted to be supportive of Joe Biden. 01:48:05.770 --> 01:48:08.550 Oh, yeah, yeah. They could have just. Yeah, they could have just done that. 01:48:08.650 --> 01:48:09.250 They are very. 01:48:09.250 --> 01:48:12.450 I agree. And instead, they're being very coy. 01:48:12.870 --> 01:48:18.550 Yeah. And this whole thing with what Nancy Pelosi said was very specifically 01:48:18.550 --> 01:48:23.190 like Joe Biden had closed the door. He said he'd made a decision. 01:48:23.330 --> 01:48:28.930 And then she goes on TV and is like, well, he, he, we, he, we need to give him 01:48:28.930 --> 01:48:31.490 time to make his decision and we need to respect his decision. 01:48:31.610 --> 01:48:33.990 And, and, you know, they're like, but he already made a decision. 01:48:34.130 --> 01:48:37.370 He needs, he needs time to make his decision it's like 01:48:37.370 --> 01:48:44.910 okay and then within hours after that we had the george clooney editorial in 01:48:44.910 --> 01:48:51.770 the new york times saying that hey he he he was out of i held a big fundraiser 01:48:51.770 --> 01:48:57.070 for him it was one of the biggest biggest fundraisers ever and when he was there well. 01:48:57.070 --> 01:48:58.730 It wasn't it was wait wait wait wait. 01:48:58.730 --> 01:48:59.150 Yes he. 01:48:59.150 --> 01:49:02.310 Attended that fundraiser i believe that it was jimmy kimmel. 01:49:02.310 --> 01:49:09.670 Oh okay fundraiser so But he has made very high dollar fundraisers before, 01:49:09.830 --> 01:49:10.930 but he attended this one. 01:49:11.210 --> 01:49:14.250 But his point was that- He saw. 01:49:14.250 --> 01:49:15.110 That he was old. 01:49:15.550 --> 01:49:21.050 Well, he said, I saw Donald, not Donald Trump, I saw Joe Biden there. 01:49:21.550 --> 01:49:23.970 You said Donald Trump? 01:49:24.130 --> 01:49:24.470 Yes, 01:49:26.630 --> 01:49:33.030 Biden-esque. You know, people were complaining that he called Kamala Harris 01:49:33.030 --> 01:49:35.250 Donald Trump the other day and. 01:49:36.520 --> 01:49:40.240 I do it all the time. 01:49:41.140 --> 01:49:45.580 You know, you called me out last week for calling Biden Obama, you know. 01:49:46.620 --> 01:49:49.000 More than once, and you keep doing it. 01:49:49.000 --> 01:49:50.060 I keep doing that. 01:49:50.420 --> 01:49:56.500 You keep, I mean, man, you have a, man, that's been a consistent one. 01:49:56.980 --> 01:49:57.900 It has been. 01:49:58.020 --> 01:50:04.320 You calling Biden Obama. Boom. I mean, it just always rolls out as Obama for whatever reason. 01:50:04.320 --> 01:50:09.000 Hey well at least it's not clinton or carter well. 01:50:09.000 --> 01:50:10.720 Yeah good point yes yes. 01:50:10.720 --> 01:50:18.220 But but anyway the he he basically said look the biden i interacted with on 01:50:18.220 --> 01:50:24.540 that night was like the debate biden like that was it was right before. 01:50:24.540 --> 01:50:28.980 The fucking debate mate. Of course it was. 01:50:29.540 --> 01:50:34.160 He was tired. He was sick. I mean, yeah. 01:50:35.300 --> 01:50:39.120 I mean, I'm like, why the hell are you surprised? 01:50:40.100 --> 01:50:43.360 Yeah. Was that actually during the week that Biden said he was sick? 01:50:43.720 --> 01:50:46.020 It was the week right before. Yes. 01:50:46.700 --> 01:50:47.600 Yeah. Okay. 01:50:48.060 --> 01:50:54.520 So I'm like, I'm like, um, I, I, I. 01:50:57.140 --> 01:51:05.660 So between Nancy Pelosi and George Clooney, like what looked like it was starting 01:51:05.660 --> 01:51:11.660 to dial down, die down, whatever, just blew right back up again. 01:51:11.800 --> 01:51:17.480 And we got more and more congressional people starting to say things and starting 01:51:17.480 --> 01:51:20.060 to come out against him. There was just this ongoing trickle. 01:51:20.140 --> 01:51:25.000 And then Nancy Pelosi also said, though, that we should wait till after NATO's over. 01:51:25.520 --> 01:51:30.720 After the NATO thing is over. So then there started to be reports that on Friday, 01:51:30.840 --> 01:51:35.640 there were going to be a few dozen congressional people coming out. 01:51:35.940 --> 01:51:39.260 Well, he said, I believe a number of you had quoted yesterday was 40. 01:51:40.020 --> 01:51:44.320 Yeah, I, I, I, I'd seen multiple people. Some people said 40, 01:51:44.400 --> 01:51:45.980 some people said a few dozen. 01:51:46.140 --> 01:51:50.580 It was all over the place, but, but a large number of congressional people. 01:51:50.660 --> 01:51:55.020 I did count it today. I did count today. day. I did count the, there was a list. 01:51:55.140 --> 01:51:58.960 Wait, wait, let me get to there. I know that I know the numbers lower, 01:51:59.080 --> 01:52:04.460 but let me just say, then Joe Biden had this press conference at the end of the summit. 01:52:05.220 --> 01:52:11.800 And I mentioned this earlier, but almost everybody universally talked about 01:52:11.800 --> 01:52:16.040 how he was absolutely masterful on the facts. 01:52:16.180 --> 01:52:19.080 He knew all the details of what was going on. 01:52:19.260 --> 01:52:26.180 He, he was basically did a tour de force in his expertise on foreign policy. 01:52:27.290 --> 01:52:31.950 And, and, and everybody started out their reviews of the press conference that 01:52:31.950 --> 01:52:33.710 way that he showed expertise. 01:52:33.830 --> 01:52:38.170 He knew what he was talking about and, and, and he was forceful about what he said. 01:52:38.550 --> 01:52:42.510 And by the way, over 20 million people watch that damn thing. 01:52:42.910 --> 01:52:49.110 Yes. Lots of people watch that about 40%, 44% of the numbers that watch the 01:52:49.110 --> 01:52:52.650 debate, but still a damn healthy number for a press conference. 01:52:52.990 --> 01:52:54.010 Yes. Yes. 01:52:54.310 --> 01:52:58.390 You know, how many people People watch your normal presidential press conference. 01:52:58.510 --> 01:53:00.970 Like a handful of news geeks. 01:53:01.070 --> 01:53:03.870 Exactly. That's it. Basically. Yes. 01:53:04.150 --> 01:53:09.050 You know, but, but then all of the reporting almost immediately always followed 01:53:09.050 --> 01:53:12.990 up with, oh, but at one point he called Kamala Harris Trump. 01:53:13.410 --> 01:53:16.870 At earlier in the day, he called Zelensky Putin. 01:53:17.370 --> 01:53:19.790 And these are the things that'll be remembered. 01:53:20.110 --> 01:53:23.710 And that one was fun. That would turn, and that would turn funny because he 01:53:23.710 --> 01:53:25.290 was like, you know, he realized it. 01:53:25.370 --> 01:53:27.030 Because he recognized it and went back. 01:53:27.090 --> 01:53:30.450 He recognized it and went back and Zelinsky was laughing about it. 01:53:30.570 --> 01:53:32.710 I mean, they had a joke about it. It was just like, whatever. 01:53:33.630 --> 01:53:35.030 Zelinsky said, I'm better. 01:53:38.930 --> 01:53:39.590 You know. 01:53:41.270 --> 01:53:45.170 But the coverage was all about, yeah, he was really good, but, 01:53:45.310 --> 01:53:47.450 and then listing all the buts. 01:53:47.890 --> 01:53:49.750 The buts were two, basically. 01:53:50.330 --> 01:53:55.230 Right. And then what What I guess though, and you have the number in front of 01:53:55.230 --> 01:54:01.130 you, the 40 or slash a few dozen that were going to come out on Friday did not 01:54:01.130 --> 01:54:02.790 materialize. It was a smaller number. 01:54:02.990 --> 01:54:04.510 No, it turned to like 18. 01:54:04.730 --> 01:54:08.450 So 18. Well, 18 is still more than one dozen, but yeah. 01:54:08.730 --> 01:54:12.650 Yeah, but it's not several. You know, they said several dozen. There were 40. 01:54:12.970 --> 01:54:18.070 That can't wait. No, wait. Is 18 the total or the new new from Friday? 01:54:18.370 --> 01:54:22.850 No, 18 was a total. I counted everybody, including that, that guy from right. 01:54:22.930 --> 01:54:27.330 So how many new and Friday, how many new on Friday? Cause there were already like a. 01:54:27.350 --> 01:54:31.530 It's like a, Oh, like a, Oh, like a, like eight or nine. Maybe that's it. 01:54:31.650 --> 01:54:32.890 Something like that. Yeah. 01:54:33.450 --> 01:54:38.170 Okay. Yeah. So like, it was not the huge, like people were talking about, 01:54:38.270 --> 01:54:43.510 well, as soon as NATO's over, the dam's going to break and there will be so 01:54:43.510 --> 01:54:47.190 much opposition to Joe Biden in Congress that he'll have no choice. 01:54:47.650 --> 01:54:53.630 Now there are a few things with that. First of all, from everything I have read about this. 01:54:54.640 --> 01:54:58.080 The people pressuring Joe Biden is backfiring entirely. 01:54:58.700 --> 01:55:03.600 Like every time somebody tries to pressure him on this, him and his closest 01:55:03.600 --> 01:55:07.240 long-term advisors are all doubling down. 01:55:07.320 --> 01:55:10.480 And like, first of all, they had no intention of dropping out anyway, 01:55:10.600 --> 01:55:13.280 but with all these people trying to pressure him like this. Yeah, 01:55:13.360 --> 01:55:15.180 absolutely. It's like, fuck you. 01:55:15.540 --> 01:55:18.580 If there was any chance of that before there's zero. 01:55:18.580 --> 01:55:21.900 Now I have to say that. 01:55:22.340 --> 01:55:28.720 And I'm noticing that, you know, I think that there is a substantial group of 01:55:28.720 --> 01:55:33.840 people back at Biden that actually like this. 01:55:34.220 --> 01:55:34.940 Yes. 01:55:35.080 --> 01:55:39.080 That is what's becoming evident as time is progressing. 01:55:39.220 --> 01:55:45.840 I think I think there was a there was a first phase of like just overall freak out. 01:55:47.080 --> 01:55:53.700 And as as the time has progressed and has and as Biden has actually done a number of things. 01:55:55.420 --> 01:56:05.040 publicly to allay concerns, the people who, who were, were maybe had some questions 01:56:05.040 --> 01:56:07.760 of Biden and saw him and they're like, and, but the, he was a guy, 01:56:07.900 --> 01:56:08.780 but then they were concerned. 01:56:09.300 --> 01:56:11.560 They went, they saw, no, what the fuck am I talking about? Yeah. 01:56:11.640 --> 01:56:14.540 He's the guy I voted. He's the guy I want. What the fuck are you guys talking about? 01:56:15.580 --> 01:56:20.180 There was, I forget immediately after the Wisconsin rally on Friday, 01:56:20.800 --> 01:56:24.640 there were a few talking heads on MSNBC. see i was listening while i was driving 01:56:24.640 --> 01:56:29.160 home from work so i i don't know who was said what i probably was driving wait. 01:56:29.160 --> 01:56:30.660 Wisconsin was it a michigan. 01:56:30.660 --> 01:56:34.920 Today today oh yeah you're right it was michigan i've been saying wisconsin 01:56:34.920 --> 01:56:38.960 the whole damn show you should have corrected me earlier they're all the fucking 01:56:38.960 --> 01:56:45.020 same those like states up there in the corner like a thing by the lakes you know i. 01:56:45.020 --> 01:56:48.160 Mean that's that's what biden needs to start telling these people they're all 01:56:48.160 --> 01:56:49.740 the fucking save you know he's. 01:56:49.740 --> 01:56:54.440 Like whatever you know michigan wisconsin they're all. 01:56:54.440 --> 01:56:55.420 Up there on the lakes. 01:56:55.420 --> 01:56:58.700 Yeah whatever they're all the same right maybe it should be. 01:56:58.700 --> 01:56:59.560 In canada anyway. 01:56:59.560 --> 01:57:01.280 Yeah that'll do it, 01:57:03.580 --> 01:57:10.220 Anyway, after the rally, they were talking about it, and one of the people basically 01:57:10.220 --> 01:57:14.780 responded to, if there's one positive about all of this stuff, 01:57:15.020 --> 01:57:20.400 all of the pressure on Biden about this and all of the criticism of this seems 01:57:20.400 --> 01:57:22.660 to have woken Biden the fuck up. 01:57:22.660 --> 01:57:23.060 Yeah. 01:57:23.140 --> 01:57:29.820 You know, they didn't say it in exactly those words, but like he is revived. He is energized. 01:57:30.140 --> 01:57:36.160 He is mad. He is showing passion about what he's doing, you know, 01:57:36.160 --> 01:57:39.120 and some people argue that there's still like, okay, there's some, 01:57:39.260 --> 01:57:42.180 there are troubling signs about his ability and okay. 01:57:42.180 --> 01:57:51.000 But like he has been at these various events showing like the active Biden that 01:57:51.000 --> 01:57:55.940 people were attracted to before and showing the kind of qualities that you might want. 01:57:56.100 --> 01:58:01.080 Now, it's still not enough for a bunch of people and it probably will never be. 01:58:01.460 --> 01:58:07.060 But the other thing that's in play here, and I can't say this enough, 01:58:07.160 --> 01:58:09.040 the way things are structured. 01:58:09.040 --> 01:58:16.660 The only way you replace Biden is if either Biden dies or Biden actually wants to leave. 01:58:17.120 --> 01:58:22.200 And right now he does not want to leave. And the events of the last three weeks 01:58:22.200 --> 01:58:24.920 have made him want to stay even more. 01:58:25.300 --> 01:58:28.720 You know, I don't think Biden's going, Biden's going anywhere. 01:58:29.040 --> 01:58:33.820 I, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but right now I don't think Biden's going anywhere. 01:58:34.020 --> 01:58:38.700 I don't think, I don't, I don't think so either. Unless he has some major health event or something. 01:58:39.160 --> 01:58:42.840 Right, right. Now, that's the one caveat I'll say. And a lot of people who are 01:58:42.840 --> 01:58:45.680 really pushing that we need to replace Biden, 01:58:45.880 --> 01:58:52.000 part of that narrative is like, hey, that thing at the debate is not going to 01:58:52.000 --> 01:58:54.680 be a one-off. It is going to happen again. 01:58:55.200 --> 01:58:59.120 It's only a question of when. and if you 01:58:59.120 --> 01:59:02.540 had another major meltdown i could 01:59:02.540 --> 01:59:07.460 see things going downhill fast because like he's trying to rehabilitate after 01:59:07.460 --> 01:59:14.760 that one bad event and as long as every time he comes on he does great then 01:59:14.760 --> 01:59:21.720 maybe he can survive if he has another sort of meltdown where everybody is like Like. 01:59:21.720 --> 01:59:29.080 Well, all he has to do is like, look, if he, you know, man, people let, yeah. 01:59:29.140 --> 01:59:32.120 Let alone another health event of an entirely different type. 01:59:32.200 --> 01:59:35.200 Like if he has a heart attack or whatever, a completely different story. 01:59:35.600 --> 01:59:42.180 You know, shit. I still remember the, the meltdown people had when Hillary passed out. 01:59:42.520 --> 01:59:43.040 Right. 01:59:43.340 --> 01:59:46.620 I mean, I'm just, you know, 01:59:48.110 --> 01:59:51.890 I mean, you know, I was looking back, but there's been a number of candidates 01:59:51.890 --> 01:59:56.010 that on the trail have had over history medical events. 01:59:56.550 --> 02:00:04.350 I think if I remember correctly, Lyndon Johnson, okay, in the 64 campaign had a really hard attack. 02:00:04.730 --> 02:00:07.090 Yeah. Yeah, he did. Okay. 02:00:07.510 --> 02:00:11.190 And so he was very, I mean, or it wasn't. 02:00:11.190 --> 02:00:15.290 Oh, wait. I was also thinking Eisenhower. Eisenhower had a heart attack a few 02:00:15.290 --> 02:00:16.250 months before the election. 02:00:16.550 --> 02:00:21.570 Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there has been, like, it's not like we have not been, 02:00:21.770 --> 02:00:24.450 let me check, because I think, I thought. 02:00:24.830 --> 02:00:27.390 I think it was Eisenhower, not Johnson, who had the heart attack. 02:00:27.590 --> 02:00:32.890 I thought Lyndon was appendicitis. I think, no, but I think Johnson had appendicitis, I think it was. 02:00:33.090 --> 02:00:33.630 Oh, okay. 02:00:34.470 --> 02:00:40.190 Something along those lines. And yeah, and like, I think Eisenhower had a heart attack. 02:00:40.190 --> 02:00:43.350 tag so so you you know you've had hillary 02:00:43.350 --> 02:00:46.150 had that cold oh my god do you 02:00:46.150 --> 02:00:49.070 remember that time that hw bush vomited all 02:00:49.070 --> 02:00:51.970 over the uh yes yes the prime minister of 02:00:51.970 --> 02:00:55.050 japan yes i mean that was 02:00:55.050 --> 02:00:58.550 yeah i mean we have had like 02:00:58.550 --> 02:01:02.170 fuck w i mean didn't 02:01:02.170 --> 02:01:05.970 w choke on a pretzel yeah 02:01:05.970 --> 02:01:09.330 in the oval office this i i 02:01:09.330 --> 02:01:12.930 don't know you know we've had so many medical 02:01:12.930 --> 02:01:15.950 scares with with the 02:01:15.950 --> 02:01:19.910 president fuck trump almost died from covid right you 02:01:19.910 --> 02:01:30.490 know so i'm just like i don't know i i'm just like is it possible that biden 02:01:30.490 --> 02:01:36.890 could have a major medical event yes it's pot i mean it's possible yeah. 02:01:36.890 --> 02:01:38.370 And that That changes everything again. 02:01:38.650 --> 02:01:43.330 I mean, but here's, and I think, but I think that what it reveals maybe with 02:01:43.330 --> 02:01:46.710 a lot of people is that they're not comfortable with Kamala as a vice president. 02:01:46.890 --> 02:01:52.730 Because I keep, in my head, I have always been, since this ticket got put together, 02:01:53.650 --> 02:01:57.890 I'm like, yeah, I know Joe's old, but hell, we got Kamala, so we're good. 02:01:58.310 --> 02:02:00.870 Right. If something happens to Joe, we're all set. 02:02:01.070 --> 02:02:05.990 We're all set. What's the problem? You know, that's been my thought the entire 02:02:05.990 --> 02:02:13.370 time. And I guess I keep thinking that a lot of these people don't want Kamala. 02:02:13.610 --> 02:02:18.250 Well, but also, I guess there is the concern of if you have somebody who's not 02:02:18.250 --> 02:02:24.110 mentally with it, but not dead, you don't get the automatic transition to the vice president. 02:02:24.650 --> 02:02:27.630 And the process of using the 25th 02:02:27.630 --> 02:02:31.870 Amendment against them is untested and contentious and blah, blah, blah. 02:02:32.470 --> 02:02:34.570 But, you know, I look at that as well and say, like, 02:02:35.200 --> 02:02:41.800 We now know, in retrospect, Ronald Reagan was not really with it for most of his second term. 02:02:42.020 --> 02:02:47.100 No. And you know what? And Reagan, listen, this is the thing. 02:02:47.200 --> 02:02:53.700 People are acting like, oh, we've never had these age and health concerns, blah, blah, blah. 02:02:54.120 --> 02:02:59.620 Man, that 84 campaign, that's all that everybody was. One of the things that 02:02:59.620 --> 02:03:01.040 everybody was talking about. 02:03:01.280 --> 02:03:04.460 Biden was old, his health, he's still there. 02:03:05.560 --> 02:03:05.880 Reagan. 02:03:06.180 --> 02:03:08.320 I mean, Reagan, whatever. Who the fuck did I say? 02:03:08.520 --> 02:03:10.620 See, you did it too. Look at you. 02:03:11.320 --> 02:03:15.200 Fuck. Jesus. Whatever. Exactly. Reagan. Yeah. 02:03:15.280 --> 02:03:19.140 You know, I mean, they were all like, you know, worried. I mean, 02:03:19.140 --> 02:03:21.300 that was like the biggest thing in that campaign. 02:03:21.400 --> 02:03:23.880 And fucking Reagan went one in a landslide. 02:03:24.620 --> 02:03:29.000 Well, and then also like just for the presidency itself, and you can argue this 02:03:29.000 --> 02:03:33.160 is not an ideal situation, but of course, it's not just him. 02:03:33.320 --> 02:03:36.320 He's got an entire staff. He's got a cabinet. 02:03:37.320 --> 02:03:40.720 Lots of negative things to say about the Reagan administration, 02:03:40.940 --> 02:03:46.080 but they kept everything running. You know, it's not like the. 02:03:46.080 --> 02:03:48.360 Cabinet was not incompetent. I mean, you know. 02:03:48.420 --> 02:03:53.240 You know, they did what they needed to do. They continued to execute Reagan's 02:03:53.240 --> 02:03:55.580 policy agenda, whether or not. 02:03:55.580 --> 02:03:57.240 Whether you agreed with it or not. 02:03:57.520 --> 02:04:03.060 Yes. So like, I feel like these are all things that could be dealt with. Like, is it ideal? 02:04:03.280 --> 02:04:07.840 No, absolutely not. And I've said also, like, you know, do I really believe 02:04:07.840 --> 02:04:11.280 if Biden is elected, he's going to go through the whole four years? 02:04:11.560 --> 02:04:15.720 Maybe not. I actually think the ideal scenario would be to for him to resign 02:04:15.720 --> 02:04:20.860 like the day after he gets to the two year mark to let let Kamala have a nice 02:04:20.860 --> 02:04:23.440 head start for the next election, you know, but. 02:04:23.440 --> 02:04:28.440 But that's of course. But listen, here is one thing I will say, 02:04:28.500 --> 02:04:34.280 you know, right, that also we talk about, you know, having cogent discussions on on policy. 02:04:34.400 --> 02:04:36.200 Yeah, look, Biden at this age. 02:04:37.270 --> 02:04:45.010 Has far more intellect in terms of complex matters than Reagan did back then. 02:04:46.230 --> 02:04:50.390 Oh, yeah. Despite being older than Reagan was back then. 02:04:50.970 --> 02:04:53.830 Despite being way older than Reagan at this point. 02:04:53.890 --> 02:04:59.210 Yeah. So that's why I'm like, I'm like, well, you know, he's not cognitively there or whatever. 02:04:59.410 --> 02:05:02.170 I'm like, yeah, look, you don't go through a fucking press conference, 02:05:02.290 --> 02:05:06.590 a NATO meeting. all of this shit that he just went through and are just, 02:05:06.630 --> 02:05:09.870 they're like a blubbering idiot. You can't fake through all of that. 02:05:10.510 --> 02:05:14.150 You could fake some of it, but you can't fake all that. 02:05:14.530 --> 02:05:17.930 Well, and you can argue like, what else would they say? But there were interviews 02:05:17.930 --> 02:05:20.630 with a number of the world leaders who were asked specifically, 02:05:20.830 --> 02:05:22.810 what do you think about Joe Biden's mental state? 02:05:23.190 --> 02:05:26.910 And they were, they all said positive things about how great he was, blah, blah, blah. 02:05:26.990 --> 02:05:30.330 And I, I get the argument of like, well, what were they going to say? 02:05:30.410 --> 02:05:33.590 Well, no, Biden wasn't with it. Like, yeah, but still, you know, 02:05:33.610 --> 02:05:37.910 that you, you could sort of dodge the question. 02:05:38.410 --> 02:05:44.070 I didn't hear them dodging the question. No, I heard them like praising him. 02:05:44.170 --> 02:05:44.670 Yeah. 02:05:45.930 --> 02:05:49.710 So the point, the point is though, like at the end of all of this, 02:05:49.830 --> 02:05:55.630 I think we are still somewhat in limbo because the people who are calling for 02:05:55.630 --> 02:05:58.070 Joe Biden to go away have not given up yet. 02:05:58.130 --> 02:06:01.730 But Joe Biden is still like, I'm not going anywhere. 02:06:02.030 --> 02:06:07.470 Listen i know that listen there there is no limbo he's not releasing his delegates. 02:06:07.470 --> 02:06:13.370 No and i want to say i want to say too like the you said michigan not wisconsin 02:06:13.370 --> 02:06:18.430 the michigan rally this afternoon he was in detroit specifically that. 02:06:18.430 --> 02:06:19.510 You got the right city wow. 02:06:19.510 --> 02:06:25.730 Yeah i'm impressive i know i know what i'm talking about i fuck. 02:06:25.730 --> 02:06:31.870 You press it you got command of you got command of all your knowledge you know things. 02:06:31.870 --> 02:06:34.690 My faculties are with me i know the 02:06:34.690 --> 02:06:37.950 city it is detroit in 02:06:37.950 --> 02:06:41.130 the great state of wisconsin yes yeah right 02:06:41.130 --> 02:06:44.930 anyway anyway like this rally was 02:06:44.930 --> 02:06:50.710 the best performance from joe biden since the state of the union yeah he was 02:06:50.710 --> 02:06:56.210 he was and you cannot yeah okay the rallies you you have the the teleprompter 02:06:56.210 --> 02:07:00.270 he's it's a speech it's not completely impromptu but he did the impromptu thing 02:07:00.270 --> 02:07:01.850 at the press conference the day before, right? 02:07:02.190 --> 02:07:06.370 But as a speech, this was rousing. 02:07:06.930 --> 02:07:11.630 He was energetic. He was active. He was passionate. 02:07:12.130 --> 02:07:17.430 Also, I heard- Funny, but the thing that was also mentioned, 02:07:17.570 --> 02:07:22.270 and this one I do remember, it was Chris Hayes on MSNBC, said that this was 02:07:22.270 --> 02:07:25.850 actually the first really clear to him anyway, 02:07:26.030 --> 02:07:33.310 articulation of the the Biden campaign because what he did is he had three clear themes. 02:07:34.260 --> 02:07:40.440 In the speech that he gave. Number one was accomplishments that he's done in 02:07:40.440 --> 02:07:44.400 his administration so far and really banging them home, going through the list. 02:07:44.460 --> 02:07:47.600 We've done this, we've done this, we've done this, and here's why it's good. 02:07:47.720 --> 02:07:50.400 And here's why it has affected you in a positive way. 02:07:50.760 --> 02:07:57.220 Number two was an actual forward-looking list of what we will do in a second term. 02:07:57.500 --> 02:08:03.500 Because people have criticized Biden in the past for just looking backward and not forward. 02:08:03.720 --> 02:08:06.540 So it was a whole bunch of like, yeah, here are things we're going to do. 02:08:06.580 --> 02:08:09.120 Here's a policy wishlist. 02:08:09.220 --> 02:08:12.520 Now, whether or not any of them are realistic completely depends, 02:08:12.700 --> 02:08:15.580 even if he wins, what happens in Congress, blah, blah, blah, 02:08:15.640 --> 02:08:16.420 all kinds of other stuff. 02:08:16.520 --> 02:08:20.500 But the point was articulating a vision. And here are the things we would do 02:08:20.500 --> 02:08:22.640 if you put us in power for another term. 02:08:23.200 --> 02:08:29.740 And then third, Donald Trump is dangerous and articulating why and directly 02:08:29.740 --> 02:08:34.660 Directly attacking Donald Trump on all of the key issues you can imagine on, 02:08:34.740 --> 02:08:36.100 you know, he's a criminal, 02:08:36.240 --> 02:08:39.180 he's a danger for foreign policy, he's a danger for democracy. 02:08:39.280 --> 02:08:43.420 He's, you know, all of the things that you would think about and going directly 02:08:43.420 --> 02:08:48.200 at him on all of these things, including various things where Donald Trump himself 02:08:48.200 --> 02:08:49.880 has been confused about the facts. 02:08:49.980 --> 02:08:54.380 He went after Donald Trump about the shark versus electrocution thing. 02:08:54.380 --> 02:08:56.040 He went after Donald Trump. 02:08:56.120 --> 02:09:03.880 It was pointed, direct attacks on Donald Trump in a way that we've rarely seen Joe Biden do before. 02:09:06.860 --> 02:09:11.700 And it's also one of the things that people have criticized Biden for is not 02:09:11.700 --> 02:09:13.720 directly attacking Trump. 02:09:13.880 --> 02:09:18.660 And so he did that absolutely. Absolutely. So it is a it is a really I'll tell you one. 02:09:18.660 --> 02:09:23.180 Thing that is a positive. Sam, you do realize and I think Trump at this point 02:09:23.180 --> 02:09:29.640 has to be seething that that that that Biden has taken away the spotlight from him. 02:09:30.580 --> 02:09:36.120 Yes. Yeah. And now we've got the we've got the Republican convention coming up in a few days. 02:09:36.200 --> 02:09:40.120 But forget about the election. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But but Biden has completely 02:09:40.120 --> 02:09:42.160 dragged away the spotlight from him. 02:09:42.660 --> 02:09:46.620 Well and for the first part of that i mean we talked about like trump at the 02:09:46.620 --> 02:09:49.900 golf course was probably very much intentional just because of the general advice 02:09:49.900 --> 02:09:55.120 when you when your opponent is self-destructing let them get out of the way and let them right. 02:09:55.120 --> 02:09:57.680 But that's not what's happening in the recently. 02:09:57.680 --> 02:10:02.360 What's not what's happening now and and i want to throw this out about polls 02:10:02.360 --> 02:10:07.980 as well let me let me pull up the summary i put on the curmudgeons course slack earlier earlier. 02:10:09.700 --> 02:10:11.000 It's way earlier today. 02:10:12.330 --> 02:10:16.370 There was really a lot of conversation on the curmudgeons corner slack this time around. 02:10:17.370 --> 02:10:18.590 Oh my God. 02:10:20.330 --> 02:10:24.030 Like normally we share a few articles. We have a couple little discussions, 02:10:24.130 --> 02:10:28.210 but like there was like hours of back and forth with people debating. 02:10:29.570 --> 02:10:34.390 And I'm, I'm looking for one thing I posted like middle of the day sometime. 02:10:35.430 --> 02:10:38.970 Yeah. Yeah. No, I was struggling to find them. Like, holy shit. 02:10:39.010 --> 02:10:43.150 Where the hell? Good Lord. Lord, we really averaged it out today. 02:10:43.810 --> 02:10:46.230 And I was working. I was at meetings. 02:10:46.950 --> 02:10:48.690 I even interviewed a guy. 02:10:49.290 --> 02:10:52.170 Yeah. Okay, here we go. I found it. 02:10:53.190 --> 02:10:57.150 And I had noted something about this on the Slack a couple days ago, 02:10:57.230 --> 02:10:58.830 but it's more real this point. 02:10:58.930 --> 02:11:03.770 If you look at the national polls, because I've got the state poll thing, 02:11:03.850 --> 02:11:06.570 and like I said, tipping point has moved quite a bit. 02:11:06.830 --> 02:11:12.230 But state polls are slower. You get fewer of them and it takes a while for them 02:11:12.230 --> 02:11:13.990 to incorporate into averages, blah, blah, blah. 02:11:14.110 --> 02:11:17.970 So like you really need to look at the state polls to understand the electoral 02:11:17.970 --> 02:11:22.770 college, but to get a sense of the ebb and flow, national polls will get you a lot faster. 02:11:23.030 --> 02:11:30.410 And so right before the debate, Biden had just barely pulled ahead of Trump 02:11:30.410 --> 02:11:35.930 for the first time since 538 had been tracking. They only started tracking like 02:11:35.930 --> 02:11:37.550 six months, not even six months ago. 02:11:38.050 --> 02:11:44.550 But Biden's peak was being ahead by 0.3% on June 23rd. 02:11:45.290 --> 02:11:48.570 And the debate was what, the 27th? 02:11:48.930 --> 02:11:50.970 Something like that. Yeah, something like that. 02:11:50.970 --> 02:11:53.810 Something like that anyway that was 02:11:53.810 --> 02:11:57.470 his peak after the debate it moved 02:11:57.470 --> 02:12:01.410 to trump ahead by 2.5 so 02:12:01.410 --> 02:12:09.150 that's a total move of 2.8 percent and he got to that 2.5 on july 5th but since 02:12:09.150 --> 02:12:15.890 and first of all 2.5 percent like it's not it's not 10 right it's not 15 it's 02:12:15.890 --> 02:12:19.410 not even like seven right you know It's not even five. 02:12:19.810 --> 02:12:21.990 It's- Still within the margin of error. 02:12:22.030 --> 02:12:22.430 Basically. 02:12:22.750 --> 02:12:29.130 It's a 2.8%. Yeah, for a margin, because like, yeah, you're right. 02:12:29.270 --> 02:12:30.510 It's still within margin of error. 02:12:30.610 --> 02:12:30.710 Yeah. 02:12:31.250 --> 02:12:34.510 Because when they give a margin of error on a poll, and it's usually three or 02:12:34.510 --> 02:12:37.310 4%, it's on, you know, Trump has 45. 02:12:37.570 --> 02:12:41.930 Right. Not on the margin between the candidates. The margin of error on the 02:12:41.930 --> 02:12:44.010 margin is actually usually about twice as much. 02:12:44.090 --> 02:12:44.270 Right. 02:12:44.330 --> 02:12:50.150 So like 6% or something. Yeah. But anyway, it's within margin of error. 02:12:50.250 --> 02:12:55.830 Now, people argue like, yeah, but the sort of range of wiggle room that the 02:12:55.830 --> 02:13:02.990 candidates have when you remove everybody who's definitely made up their minds is only about 5%. 02:13:02.990 --> 02:13:06.890 So two and a half is actually pretty big in that context. But here's the thing. 02:13:07.580 --> 02:13:14.860 It started to reverse. July 5th was Trump's peak there. It's now back down to Trump ahead by 1.9. 02:13:15.340 --> 02:13:19.080 And I think there have been a number of close national polls. 02:13:19.200 --> 02:13:21.380 There've been a number of polls showing Biden leading. 02:13:21.740 --> 02:13:24.940 There are a number of polls where they've pointed out specifically, 02:13:25.060 --> 02:13:29.400 they did a poll now and a poll before the debate, and it shows no change and 02:13:29.400 --> 02:13:32.200 or Biden actually even ahead of where they were before the debate. 02:13:32.360 --> 02:13:38.260 I still prefer looking at the aggregated average, But things have started moving 02:13:38.260 --> 02:13:39.920 back in Biden's direction again. 02:13:40.160 --> 02:13:44.820 And so will this continue or not? Who the fuck knows? 02:13:45.060 --> 02:13:49.500 You know, but one of the people on our Commissions Corner Slack, 02:13:49.840 --> 02:13:55.680 Peter, who co-hosted a couple weeks ago, said something similar to what Yvonne 02:13:55.680 --> 02:14:00.100 said earlier, that this, all of this drama may, 02:14:00.340 --> 02:14:06.320 may, may actually end up helping Biden. 02:14:06.340 --> 02:14:11.980 Biden in the end, if he, if he gets through it, like if it damages him so much 02:14:11.980 --> 02:14:14.800 that he actually does drop out whole different story. 02:14:14.860 --> 02:14:20.880 But if he is now showing his passion, showing his determination, 02:14:21.000 --> 02:14:26.820 standing up to all the people who are trying to like knock him out of the race 02:14:26.820 --> 02:14:33.320 and basically saying, you know, they can't get me down. I'm going to do my damn job. 02:14:33.460 --> 02:14:38.580 I'm going to continue you, blah, blah, blah. He actually is looking strong out of that. 02:14:38.880 --> 02:14:40.540 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 02:14:41.060 --> 02:14:47.220 Like the whole thing out of debate, the debate, who, who is the quote on this? 02:14:47.400 --> 02:14:50.760 Oh, this was from George Conway posted. 02:14:51.020 --> 02:14:54.160 I wonder if in a weird way, the 02:14:54.160 --> 02:14:58.180 internecine battle among Democrats could actually end up helping Biden. 02:14:58.320 --> 02:15:04.140 His problem at the debate was ultimately he looked weak, but standing up to 02:15:04.140 --> 02:15:08.240 the calls for him to stand down makes him look kind of ornery. 02:15:08.480 --> 02:15:10.720 That's not necessarily a bad thing. 02:15:11.460 --> 02:15:15.560 Let me put it to you this way. Headline of Washington Post right now online. 02:15:15.920 --> 02:15:21.720 Yeah. Biden delivers newly fiery speech declaring Trump unfit to be president. 02:15:22.550 --> 02:15:23.770 Now, that doesn't sound weak. 02:15:24.390 --> 02:15:29.230 Right. And so, now Bob responded to that. 02:15:29.470 --> 02:15:32.910 That's disingenuous on Archimedes Core Slack. Bob responded, 02:15:33.050 --> 02:15:34.450 that's just disingenuous. 02:15:34.630 --> 02:15:39.690 The debate was no gaffe because he's very, Bob and several other people, 02:15:39.970 --> 02:15:44.570 John as well on the Slack, are very worried because, you know. 02:15:44.830 --> 02:15:46.010 What if it happens again? 02:15:46.250 --> 02:15:50.990 What if it happens again? What if this really is a sign of a progressive condition 02:15:50.990 --> 02:15:54.310 that's only going to get worse and he can't handle it? 02:15:54.370 --> 02:15:58.870 And if we don't replace him and it gets worse and worse and worse and there's 02:15:58.870 --> 02:16:02.270 another incident, then we're completely done. There's no chance. 02:16:02.390 --> 02:16:06.390 I mean, there's a lot of thought that it's already completely done. 02:16:06.490 --> 02:16:07.590 He has no chance of winning. 02:16:07.910 --> 02:16:11.250 Oh, yeah. There's a lot of people saying that. But this is this is ridiculous 02:16:11.250 --> 02:16:14.210 horseshit to talk. I, I, I, I. 02:16:14.210 --> 02:16:18.830 I mean, election, election graphs put some at 8%, which is low, but not zero. 02:16:18.930 --> 02:16:23.990 And I, and actually if I have to do my gut feel, you know, Pete, 02:16:24.050 --> 02:16:27.310 Pete predicted just a little while ago, also on our commissions course slack 02:16:27.310 --> 02:16:30.550 is he thinks Biden is now actually set up for a comeback narrative. 02:16:31.070 --> 02:16:34.750 And I, I actually, right now I'm thinking, I agree. 02:16:35.210 --> 02:16:40.630 Like I, I don't have huge confidence, but I have some confidence and I feel 02:16:40.630 --> 02:16:43.830 like right Right now, well... 02:16:44.660 --> 02:16:49.300 partially this goes to like well what happens at the rnc next week like usually 02:16:49.300 --> 02:16:55.200 candidates get a bump out of their convention but i'm like if they just show 02:16:55.200 --> 02:17:02.300 themselves to be complete whack jobs they might not get a bump american. 02:17:02.300 --> 02:17:08.620 Carnage sam american carnage i. 02:17:08.620 --> 02:17:12.880 Mean if they had a normal convention and seem sane they'll they'll probably 02:17:12.880 --> 02:17:19.540 get a bump out of it but if the republicans because they've got like yeah they've have you. 02:17:19.540 --> 02:17:22.160 Seen the guest list at this fucking shit show. 02:17:22.160 --> 02:17:27.960 I know the guest look at guest the guest list is crazy there are delegate guests. 02:17:27.960 --> 02:17:33.360 Looking we're not we're not licking guests nobody's looking nobody is licking any guests. 02:17:33.360 --> 02:17:39.840 There are delegates going to this convention who are convicted January 6th people. 02:17:40.680 --> 02:17:46.940 Like, you know, there is lots of opportunity for, for it to go nuts. 02:17:47.060 --> 02:17:54.500 And so I have a big open question of, do they control this and like, keep it sane? 02:17:54.700 --> 02:17:58.820 If they control it and keep it sane, they get a regular bounce out of it. 02:17:58.840 --> 02:18:02.040 If they don't, they, they could get hurt by the convention. 02:18:02.040 --> 02:18:11.340 Sam, Sam, this is going to be, this is going to be like a regular Trump rally right now. 02:18:11.900 --> 02:18:15.540 That's what this is. Look at the people. I mean, the people that are organized 02:18:15.540 --> 02:18:17.620 that are all convicted felons. 02:18:18.580 --> 02:18:21.900 The fuck are you, you know, forget about the people attending. 02:18:22.260 --> 02:18:23.980 Who the hell are the organizers? 02:18:25.380 --> 02:18:28.960 This is like a fucking like mob meeting. oh. 02:18:28.960 --> 02:18:33.480 And by the way i should say also this is intended to start monday right it starts 02:18:33.480 --> 02:18:38.120 monday do i have the date right monday monday monday confirm i. 02:18:38.120 --> 02:18:45.360 Don't know i actually got startled while i was watching a a copa america soccer 02:18:45.360 --> 02:18:51.420 game okay by an ad for this and i it just the thing is that you know i'm watching 02:18:51.420 --> 02:18:56.780 this soccer game and then all of a sudden i hear trump yelling and And, you know, 02:18:56.860 --> 02:18:59.200 I'm like, what the fuck is this? 02:18:59.420 --> 02:19:04.160 I'm like, oh, the RNC Monday or whatever day. And I'm like, motherfucker, 02:19:04.160 --> 02:19:07.060 Jesus Christ, the thing startled me. 02:19:07.940 --> 02:19:11.160 I really, you know, so what day is it? 02:19:11.580 --> 02:19:18.580 Yeah. So, so as, as we were recording 2.8 days from now. 02:19:19.600 --> 02:19:21.280 So, you know, who is the. 02:19:21.380 --> 02:19:25.340 Uh, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, month. Yeah. 02:19:26.040 --> 02:19:33.480 What, what, what is the hit list of what is the, uh, primetime list of luminaries 02:19:33.480 --> 02:19:36.200 who will be speaking at this fucking. 02:19:36.600 --> 02:19:39.060 I haven't looked it up. you tell me i. 02:19:39.060 --> 02:19:48.040 Don't fuck you the convention speaker list there we go uh in the shithole of 02:19:48.040 --> 02:19:50.840 milwaukee which by the way which he had complained. 02:19:50.840 --> 02:19:57.740 Okay it it's it starts it where it starts july 15th that's monday right that's. 02:19:57.740 --> 02:19:58.720 Sun yeah monday. 02:19:58.720 --> 02:20:02.460 Yes monday monday monday july 15th monday. 02:20:02.460 --> 02:20:04.660 Let's see who are the uh. 02:20:04.660 --> 02:20:09.780 That's what i thought i just wanted to be sure while you're looking up speakers 02:20:09.780 --> 02:20:14.540 i will say donald trump has said he will announce his vp candidate and he wants 02:20:14.540 --> 02:20:16.620 to announce it on monday yeah. 02:20:16.620 --> 02:20:19.860 He's been listen he's been saying this for months. 02:20:19.860 --> 02:20:24.600 Well yeah but the convention well the convention is starting he's not going 02:20:24.600 --> 02:20:28.540 to hold it off fast that the what all the people People who are reading tea 02:20:28.540 --> 02:20:30.220 leaves say it's going to be J.D. 02:20:30.220 --> 02:20:35.900 Vance because they have the two speakers scheduled immediately before the slot 02:20:35.900 --> 02:20:40.120 that's been penciled in for the VP candidate are Donald Trump Jr., 02:20:40.120 --> 02:20:42.200 who's been advocating for J.D. 02:20:42.280 --> 02:20:47.500 Vance this whole time, and some local guy from Ohio that would be related to J.D. Vance. 02:20:47.600 --> 02:20:51.080 So the tea leave readers say it's going to be J.D. 02:20:51.100 --> 02:20:57.380 Vance, but it is Donald Trump, so they could be wrong. It could change up to the very last second. 02:20:57.940 --> 02:20:59.880 So go ahead. Who else is talking? 02:21:00.700 --> 02:21:06.460 Well, it says here, nobody really has a good list. 02:21:06.800 --> 02:21:12.820 They are saying, though, that one of the featured speakers is going to be Governor Kristi Noem. 02:21:14.080 --> 02:21:20.440 That, I'm sure, will fire up people. Okay. You know, having the dog killer on first. 02:21:21.260 --> 02:21:24.000 Who is speaking at the Republican? Here we go. Reuters. 02:21:25.180 --> 02:21:29.320 David Sachs. I have no idea who this guy is. Yeah, he's an investor. 02:21:29.580 --> 02:21:33.120 Yeah. trent conaway does that ring a bell no. 02:21:33.120 --> 02:21:34.660 Not at all i have no idea. 02:21:34.660 --> 02:21:40.420 Amber rose oh this one oh this was a hoot look i i you know i i have no problem 02:21:40.420 --> 02:21:43.440 with people doing only she is an only fan star, 02:21:44.120 --> 02:21:47.040 okay nothing wrong with it but i'm like 02:21:47.040 --> 02:21:51.880 amber rose a biracial millennium model the reality television personality who 02:21:51.880 --> 02:21:56.840 once dated rapper kanye west is making her art scene a few of the next week 02:21:56.840 --> 02:22:04.160 and yeah and they've got dana white the ufc guy who is about no idea, 02:22:04.960 --> 02:22:07.820 donald trump jr i mean 02:22:07.820 --> 02:22:15.860 he's gonna be all coked up as usual i you know well they don't i mean honestly 02:22:15.860 --> 02:22:19.260 nobody has a good speaker list of what the hell's gonna happen at this shit 02:22:19.260 --> 02:22:25.160 show is what i'm realizing right now i've looked through things and you know nobody knows, 02:22:26.030 --> 02:22:26.930 Okay. 02:22:28.190 --> 02:22:37.030 So getting back to the point that I was making, I think if they go weird and 02:22:37.030 --> 02:22:39.570 crazy at the Republican National Convention, 02:22:39.770 --> 02:22:44.970 I could see Biden getting back to where he was before his speech before the 02:22:44.970 --> 02:22:47.130 end of July in the polling averages. 02:22:47.130 --> 02:22:50.190 damages um if and and 02:22:50.190 --> 02:22:53.910 by the way getting back to where he was before is 02:22:53.910 --> 02:22:56.790 still behind but i 02:22:56.790 --> 02:23:02.330 could see him like getting back to where he was before so undoing whatever damage 02:23:02.330 --> 02:23:07.950 happened from all this rigmarole assuming that he goes nowhere and continues 02:23:07.950 --> 02:23:11.550 to because if he continues to insist he's not going anywhere there's nothing 02:23:11.550 --> 02:23:15.910 they can do about it and at a certain point people have to realize that they're causing more damage. 02:23:16.170 --> 02:23:23.310 Also, the deadline for doing anything about that is not the Democratic National Convention. 02:23:23.710 --> 02:23:31.710 They are having to do a virtual roll call vote earlier to make sure they declare 02:23:31.710 --> 02:23:35.310 an official candidate in time for the deadlines in all the states. 02:23:35.550 --> 02:23:41.210 And I believe I heard earlier today that is scheduled for July 21st. 02:23:41.210 --> 02:23:48.250 So at most, we really have like one more week of this shit eight. 02:23:48.250 --> 02:23:49.830 Days eight days. 02:23:49.830 --> 02:23:56.550 Yeah yeah like so one way or another this this shit has to be wrapped up like 02:23:56.550 --> 02:24:03.930 like if you get past the 21st the democrats have a legally a legally selected 02:24:03.930 --> 02:24:08.850 nominee at that point and things become much much harder after So, 02:24:08.970 --> 02:24:12.050 like, okay, let's continue this, 02:24:12.230 --> 02:24:16.090 but, like, I mean, I'd rather you don't, but... 02:24:16.950 --> 02:24:18.490 Okay, by the way, I... 02:24:19.820 --> 02:24:24.940 Speaking of data we're talking about and how difficult this election is or not 02:24:24.940 --> 02:24:30.140 in third party candidates, I went to Ballotpedia to see where RFK Jr. 02:24:30.360 --> 02:24:35.020 is officially on the ballot. Okay. Okay. And according to Ballotpedia right 02:24:35.020 --> 02:24:41.960 now, he has, he's only on, he said he's on 22 ballots, but really officially 02:24:41.960 --> 02:24:44.660 he's only on four right now. 02:24:45.080 --> 02:24:49.140 And none of these matters. Illinois, New Mexico, New York, and Utah. 02:24:49.820 --> 02:24:55.740 None really matter. None of those matter. He, I did see that he filed for Pennsylvania recently. 02:24:56.420 --> 02:25:03.340 Um, so, but, but that, that's a, that's the only one that I saw additionally that he filed. 02:25:03.400 --> 02:25:07.140 Now it says here that, you know, yeah, they'll update it as filing daylands 02:25:07.140 --> 02:25:14.080 passes, you know, updates, but, but right now that's, he's only on four and, 02:25:14.100 --> 02:25:15.180 and none of these matter. 02:25:15.420 --> 02:25:17.660 And so a lot of those polls that are considering. 02:25:17.920 --> 02:25:23.380 So are the other, the other, are the are the other ones are the other 18 that 02:25:23.380 --> 02:25:27.700 he talks about ones where basically he's like we've submitted the paperwork 02:25:27.700 --> 02:25:29.920 it's just not official yet or nothing. 02:25:29.920 --> 02:25:36.520 No no no as far as i can tell those are ones that he's targeting to do so but 02:25:36.520 --> 02:25:41.660 as far as i can tell the only one that he's done that i saw are those on are 02:25:41.660 --> 02:25:47.240 those four and that he filed for pennsylvania okay that that That's it, 02:25:47.320 --> 02:25:49.760 basically. That's all I could find. 02:25:50.300 --> 02:25:56.460 Oh, I realized I didn't finish my prediction. I was like, if the Republicans go complete, yes, pain. 02:25:56.620 --> 02:26:02.100 If the Republicans go nuts and just seem like completely insane at their convention, 02:26:02.260 --> 02:26:05.960 I could see Biden catching up by the end of July in the poll averages. 02:26:06.420 --> 02:26:13.280 If, on the other hand, the Republicans present as sane and like normal, you know, 02:26:14.020 --> 02:26:19.140 Trumpy but as normal as you can make Trumpy and not like completely out of control 02:26:19.140 --> 02:26:25.980 then I see us probably being then I see us probably being at about the same place by the end of I. 02:26:25.980 --> 02:26:31.140 Think it could be at the same it's just these conventions the effect that they've 02:26:31.140 --> 02:26:35.060 had on anything has diminished substantially you know. 02:26:35.060 --> 02:26:42.220 Well and even in sort of the good old days of conventions the effect usually only it was. 02:26:42.220 --> 02:26:46.140 A short bounce a week or two yeah that's it. 02:26:46.140 --> 02:26:49.220 Yeah it lasted a few weeks yeah two 02:26:49.220 --> 02:26:52.760 two weeks maybe two three at most um 02:26:52.760 --> 02:26:55.540 at most and then you basically reverted to where you 02:26:55.540 --> 02:27:02.480 were before the convention i think at this point like just just like debates 02:27:02.480 --> 02:27:09.180 i think the upside is really limited but there is potential downside so like 02:27:09.180 --> 02:27:13.200 i don't think you're gonna get a big boost in anybody's numbers out of a convention, 02:27:13.380 --> 02:27:17.580 but you might get damage if something bad happens at the convention. 02:27:18.480 --> 02:27:22.980 That's my gut. I mean, maybe that depends on a little bit where you are. 02:27:23.440 --> 02:27:29.340 Like maybe Biden could get a boost out of his convention if he overperforms. I don't know. 02:27:30.030 --> 02:27:37.750 Now, by the way, I have found, I did, now, Ballotpedia has, you know, 02:27:37.750 --> 02:27:40.350 those states I mentioned, okay? 02:27:40.790 --> 02:27:45.250 However, the New York Times has a different one about ballot access, 02:27:45.330 --> 02:27:49.110 and they say that RFK Jr. is also in Minnesota and Michigan. 02:27:49.490 --> 02:27:52.350 Okay. And those two states do potentially matter. 02:27:52.510 --> 02:27:54.310 Those two states do potentially matter. 02:27:54.730 --> 02:27:56.090 Michigan more than Minnesota. 02:27:56.510 --> 02:27:59.750 And that everything else is that he's trying to. 02:28:00.030 --> 02:28:04.490 But even – let me say this too. One of the trends that's happened in recent 02:28:04.490 --> 02:28:07.590 weeks, even before the debate but accelerated by the debate, 02:28:07.790 --> 02:28:14.610 is states that were not swing states before suddenly becoming close. 02:28:15.090 --> 02:28:18.270 Like Virginia was considered fairly safe Democratic. 02:28:18.650 --> 02:28:23.350 Now, like my average on election graphs, has Biden just barely ahead. 02:28:24.110 --> 02:28:30.230 Same thing for Minnesota. even like New Jersey, like there've been a couple 02:28:30.230 --> 02:28:33.450 of coal, a couple of polls showing Trump ahead in New Jersey. 02:28:33.490 --> 02:28:38.670 It's, I still don't have it as a swing state, but like it's been moving in Trump's 02:28:38.670 --> 02:28:40.950 direction in recent polls as well. 02:28:41.010 --> 02:28:43.830 That's one of the trends that's been happening is, you know, 02:28:43.830 --> 02:28:48.110 states that had been safe blue are becoming a little bit less safe blue. 02:28:48.270 --> 02:28:51.510 And that's something you'd want to see reversed as well as like, 02:28:51.550 --> 02:28:55.450 like this election we've said forever, like, you know, So really, 02:28:55.630 --> 02:28:59.750 we got Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 02:29:00.130 --> 02:29:03.570 That is the core to any Biden win. 02:29:03.790 --> 02:29:09.510 And by the way, if he pulls those three together, but not Nebraska first congressional 02:29:09.510 --> 02:29:12.790 district, you get a 269 to 269 tie. 02:29:13.190 --> 02:29:18.630 And that would be nuts and probably end up in Donald Trump getting it in the 02:29:18.630 --> 02:29:19.830 House of Representatives. 02:29:20.150 --> 02:29:26.430 So he also really needs Nebraska's first. so like we should expect to see like 02:29:26.430 --> 02:29:31.970 biden showing up in fucking omaha like omaha nebraska like. 02:29:32.760 --> 02:29:35.660 He needs to go there. He needs to be spending some time there. 02:29:35.800 --> 02:29:39.040 Do not sleep on Nebraska's first because you need it. 02:29:39.580 --> 02:29:46.240 Unless things change completely and you bring in like Arizona or North Carolina or something again. 02:29:46.360 --> 02:29:49.000 But at the moment, those seem out of reach. Or Georgia. 02:29:49.140 --> 02:29:49.380 Okay. 02:29:51.360 --> 02:29:57.980 Any other last thoughts? Can we wrap this up? We're once again long. 02:29:58.860 --> 02:30:06.380 No, I think that's it. But by the way, I am finding that the information on 02:30:06.380 --> 02:30:08.280 this, on where he's on the ballot, is inconsistent. 02:30:09.340 --> 02:30:14.540 New York Times has, for example, Ballotpedia believes that he's in New York 02:30:14.540 --> 02:30:18.000 State, but not the New York Times, for example. 02:30:19.360 --> 02:30:24.500 Which says it's in progress. So it's really very fluid where he is right now. 02:30:24.500 --> 02:30:28.540 But I will say that the only consequential states that he's trying to, 02:30:28.640 --> 02:30:34.280 according to your times to get on the ballot is, you know, Minnesota, 02:30:34.440 --> 02:30:36.820 Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, 02:30:37.120 --> 02:30:42.840 um, and Georgia, North Carolina. So, but, but yeah. 02:30:43.000 --> 02:30:47.820 We'll, we'll see where he ends up. And the other thing is, as we've always said, 02:30:47.960 --> 02:30:52.260 like third parties tend to collapse as you go into the homestretch. 02:30:52.260 --> 02:30:53.500 Oh, very quickly. 02:30:53.500 --> 02:30:58.940 You know, so he's already got less support than he did a couple months ago. 02:30:59.080 --> 02:31:02.180 He's going to have even less a couple months from now. 02:31:02.440 --> 02:31:05.520 And then you start asking, like, where are those people? 02:31:05.680 --> 02:31:08.960 Like, you know, going back to an older theme, 02:31:09.360 --> 02:31:17.920 the third party votes plus the undecideds are much larger than the margins in 02:31:17.920 --> 02:31:24.280 all the swing states, including Pennsylvania, which which is the tipping point state right now. 02:31:24.660 --> 02:31:29.500 Let me just give Pennsylvania as an actual data point here. 02:31:29.820 --> 02:31:33.080 Bring up Pennsylvania. Hold on. Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. 02:31:35.640 --> 02:31:44.840 Pennsylvania, 6,500. Okay. Right now, Trump leads Pennsylvania by 4.9% in the margin. 02:31:44.980 --> 02:31:48.220 It was basically tied in the middle of June. 02:31:48.300 --> 02:32:00.860 Now Trump's ahead by 4.9%. But you add up third parties and undecided, that's 11%. What? 10.9. 02:32:01.420 --> 02:32:09.380 So like, you know, the number of undecideds and third parties are still bigger 02:32:09.380 --> 02:32:12.060 than the margin, even in a state like Pennsylvania. 02:32:12.360 --> 02:32:18.060 So like a big part of things is going to be those people who, 02:32:18.100 --> 02:32:23.220 for whatever reason, are on the fence or actively considering third parties. 02:32:23.900 --> 02:32:29.100 How many of those stick with the third parties and how many of them end up breaking 02:32:29.100 --> 02:32:32.180 to Trump or Biden and then what happens there? 02:32:33.400 --> 02:32:39.320 And yeah, and, and I think like, yeah, and, and, and I think we just to circle 02:32:39.320 --> 02:32:42.960 back before we finally close up, I think we are in a situation where, 02:32:43.000 --> 02:32:46.660 you know, lots of people can be unhappy about it, but we got Biden. 02:32:47.240 --> 02:32:54.540 Biden is not, he has to cooperate with any scenario that does not leave him 02:32:54.540 --> 02:33:00.320 as the nominee and he is digging in and not considering leaving right now. 02:33:00.320 --> 02:33:07.780 Now, if he has another major flub, incident, whatever, maybe that changes. 02:33:07.880 --> 02:33:09.380 But absent that, we got Biden. 02:33:09.500 --> 02:33:10.580 We got Biden. 02:33:11.200 --> 02:33:14.400 This is, you know, people have been, this last 02:33:14.400 --> 02:33:25.080 few weeks of like media and democratic freak out about like everything is just 02:33:25.080 --> 02:33:30.060 the latest symptom of this thing that we have have had for over a year where 02:33:30.060 --> 02:33:31.920 everybody is like, really? 02:33:32.540 --> 02:33:36.960 It's going to be Trump versus Biden again. We don't want either of these guys. 02:33:37.100 --> 02:33:37.720 I know. 02:33:37.820 --> 02:33:42.080 Can we please have somebody else to pick from? And sorry, no, 02:33:42.380 --> 02:33:45.860 it is what it is. You may not like it. 02:33:46.020 --> 02:33:51.320 Like if in an ideal scenario, you can argue that Joe Biden should have like 02:33:51.320 --> 02:33:55.060 a year and a half ago said he wasn't running and handed it over, 02:33:55.200 --> 02:33:57.640 blah, blah, blah, maybe. But he didn't. 02:33:58.140 --> 02:34:00.580 And Trump is running for his own reasons. 02:34:01.120 --> 02:34:06.520 Let me just say this. George Conway, the other recently, and he was, 02:34:06.720 --> 02:34:08.760 people misunderstood what he said. 02:34:09.200 --> 02:34:12.020 Yes, about being retired on the beach or whatever. 02:34:12.580 --> 02:34:17.780 Yeah, I mean, what he was saying is that, you know, in an ideal scenario, and I agree with him. 02:34:17.920 --> 02:34:22.260 Yeah. You know, Joe Biden would be in this retirement with his family and just, 02:34:22.360 --> 02:34:29.460 you know, President Hillary Clinton would have been in office for her second 02:34:29.460 --> 02:34:32.620 term like right now and all of these things. 02:34:32.800 --> 02:34:35.420 But the reality is that, 02:34:36.360 --> 02:34:42.300 Biden ran in 2020. The candidate field was wide open. 02:34:42.600 --> 02:34:48.880 There was every candidate of every stripe of every kind, you know, you wanted. 02:34:49.340 --> 02:34:54.980 And, and I didn't even in the primary vote for Joe Biden, but I, 02:34:55.040 --> 02:34:57.420 and it wasn't because I didn't like Joe Biden. 02:34:57.520 --> 02:35:00.400 I love Joe Biden. I always liked Joe Biden. Damn it. 02:35:00.700 --> 02:35:05.100 But I, you know, I was thinking about the future and I'm like, you know, we. 02:35:05.100 --> 02:35:08.880 Were both with kamala fans kamala let's pronounce it correct. 02:35:08.880 --> 02:35:13.280 Yeah let's go with kamala you know what the heck you know let's go with her 02:35:13.280 --> 02:35:18.180 come on you know this looks you know this is fine but but you know, 02:35:18.980 --> 02:35:23.680 hey most of the people pick joe and i and i was like to me it's the same thing 02:35:23.680 --> 02:35:28.700 like with her i'm like i mean i like joe too what the hell all right so you 02:35:28.700 --> 02:35:31.900 know that's the guy though that everybody picked i mean you guys want to go 02:35:31.900 --> 02:35:35.340 with the old white guy i mean i love the old i love joe he 02:35:35.560 --> 02:35:37.840 I mean, I love that old white guy. 02:35:37.960 --> 02:35:40.500 Okay. All right. So I'm, I'm good with that. 02:35:40.900 --> 02:35:47.320 And so like right now to me, I'm just like, guys, it wasn't my top choice either. 02:35:47.440 --> 02:35:51.320 When we went through this the first time, but everybody else didn't win. 02:35:51.480 --> 02:35:56.020 And guess what? He fucking beat Trump. Right. And by the way, 02:35:56.100 --> 02:35:59.220 everybody said that he wasn't going to beat him. 02:35:59.740 --> 02:36:00.220 Yep. 02:36:00.440 --> 02:36:04.520 A lot of people didn't think he was going to pull it off. And he did. 02:36:04.520 --> 02:36:07.500 Well and and like cross our 02:36:07.500 --> 02:36:10.800 fingers maybe something like that happens i mean like a lot 02:36:10.800 --> 02:36:15.240 of people think that you and i and others who speak like this are being delusional 02:36:15.240 --> 02:36:21.600 and that it's it's inevitable that joe biden will will melt down again he will 02:36:21.600 --> 02:36:28.520 fail and it'll be too late to recover and we should be changing courses right now yeah so you. 02:36:28.520 --> 02:36:32.500 Know i'm going and you know ed in our slack, 02:36:33.720 --> 02:36:41.660 quoting somebody that not none of us like all right but but that said something very wise mr. 02:36:41.660 --> 02:36:42.740 Rumsfeld i believe. 02:36:42.740 --> 02:36:46.760 Yes it was rummy himself and 02:36:46.760 --> 02:36:49.880 let me see if i can find that vote ed 02:36:49.880 --> 02:36:53.460 so i may i'm gonna make you justice because you you you 02:36:53.460 --> 02:36:56.600 sent it in and i i i i was totally with 02:36:56.600 --> 02:37:02.340 you on this oh my god we've said a lot of man we really we really hammered this 02:37:02.340 --> 02:37:09.700 slack today say holy smokes jesus christ we gotta we gotta hang on hang on hang 02:37:09.700 --> 02:37:16.380 on there we go no no no why can't i find it now should. 02:37:16.380 --> 02:37:17.560 I look too to help. 02:37:17.560 --> 02:37:25.140 Oh god uh help me you know with my senility like right now your. 02:37:25.140 --> 02:37:29.840 Your biden-esque senility every everything's got to be biden-esque. 02:37:29.840 --> 02:37:39.060 Yes yes my my my my badge of honor you know you know where the heck is it here it is all. 02:37:39.060 --> 02:37:40.060 Right you found it first go. 02:37:40.060 --> 02:37:46.100 Ed i thought biden was too old in 2020 i am the same age in pretty good health 02:37:46.100 --> 02:37:51.840 no that's not the one is it no no okay no you. 02:37:51.840 --> 02:37:53.560 Found the wrong thing for mad Ed. 02:37:53.560 --> 02:37:58.160 I found a wrong Ed one. I'm sorry, Ed. What am I doing? 02:37:59.800 --> 02:38:01.020 There's such a failure. 02:38:01.740 --> 02:38:07.580 I, yeah, well, you know, come on, Ed. We're here. It's a great quote. 02:38:07.780 --> 02:38:11.780 I'm not doing very well with this. You know, this is what happens at this age. 02:38:12.700 --> 02:38:14.720 Wait, I went, I went too far back. 02:38:15.600 --> 02:38:17.380 So, oh, I was looking at the quote. 02:38:17.440 --> 02:38:20.420 I was looking at the wrong place. Okay, go ahead. You did. Did you find it? 02:38:20.760 --> 02:38:24.860 No, I mean, no, I haven't found it, but I was going to try to by memory. 02:38:25.680 --> 02:38:29.300 Okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait, don't do it by memory. We can do this. 02:38:29.340 --> 02:38:31.320 Like, yeah, we can find it. 02:38:31.740 --> 02:38:33.280 We can do this like adults. 02:38:33.560 --> 02:38:35.780 Yes. Sort of like, 02:38:37.130 --> 02:38:40.170 Okay. Almost there. Almost there. 02:38:40.530 --> 02:38:41.090 Wow. 02:38:41.210 --> 02:38:42.270 There we go. I've got it. 02:38:42.710 --> 02:38:44.190 Okay. Go ahead. Read it. 02:38:44.250 --> 02:38:49.750 From Ed, who has often hosted the show or co-hosted it anyway. 02:38:50.110 --> 02:38:55.730 Donald Rumsfeld, far from my favorite human being, was absolutely correct when 02:38:55.730 --> 02:39:02.930 he said, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or 02:39:02.930 --> 02:39:04.830 wish to have at a later time. 02:39:04.830 --> 02:39:07.910 the democratic party chose their leader as 02:39:07.910 --> 02:39:11.730 joe biden it's time to quit the bullshit and 02:39:11.730 --> 02:39:18.010 campaign on issues djts on fitness and the need for a democratic congress amen 02:39:18.010 --> 02:39:25.390 i i mean this is why like even if you believe a switch would be better and i 02:39:25.390 --> 02:39:28.690 i don't i don't i i think like the switch which would be, 02:39:28.770 --> 02:39:36.090 I think people are underestimating the downside of what it would take to switch 02:39:36.090 --> 02:39:37.630 to a new candidate at this point. 02:39:37.970 --> 02:39:39.370 Totally. 100%. 02:39:39.370 --> 02:39:43.050 Because it would be contentious. There'd be people with hurt feelings. 02:39:43.490 --> 02:39:47.730 The people who want Biden would have their feelings hurt at best. 02:39:47.970 --> 02:39:54.010 And even if you end up with somebody else, it seems like more people want Kamala 02:39:54.010 --> 02:39:55.130 Harris than anybody else. 02:39:55.150 --> 02:39:58.090 But even if you pick her, they'll people will be disappointed that it was her. 02:39:58.290 --> 02:40:02.150 If you pick somebody else, certainly there'd be lots of people upset that it wasn't Harris. 02:40:02.330 --> 02:40:05.590 I think there are major downsides of doing a switch at this point, 02:40:06.750 --> 02:40:14.930 but like even without that, I, I feel like, look, the reality is, 02:40:16.430 --> 02:40:23.370 at the moment. And from all indications, Joe and his team are digging in. 02:40:23.810 --> 02:40:26.750 They are not thinking anything otherwise. And people pointed out, 02:40:26.770 --> 02:40:29.990 of course they have to act like that because any sign of weakness would be, 02:40:30.070 --> 02:40:34.870 they would immediately be interpreted as he's getting out and it would spiral. 02:40:35.010 --> 02:40:38.570 So of course he has to like double down on this, uh, certainly publicly, 02:40:38.610 --> 02:40:45.150 but like we would be getting leaks from his inner circle if if he was thinking 02:40:45.150 --> 02:40:49.390 about like if if he was wavering blah blah oh. 02:40:49.390 --> 02:40:54.210 Yeah oh no oh it would be it would be leaking like a sieve. 02:40:54.210 --> 02:40:59.430 Yeah so like the fact that we're not hearing that the most we've heard is that 02:40:59.430 --> 02:41:05.710 there are some biden insiders who say that they've thought about a few things 02:41:05.710 --> 02:41:08.930 they were polling some harris things to see what they they looked like. 02:41:09.070 --> 02:41:13.730 But from everything I can tell from the reports, like those are lower level 02:41:13.730 --> 02:41:17.210 people who are, you know, having some doubts thinking about it, 02:41:17.230 --> 02:41:21.630 but Biden and his core group seem to be digging in. 02:41:21.710 --> 02:41:26.610 And as long as that is true, then the longer this discussion goes on, 02:41:26.710 --> 02:41:28.710 the more damaging it can be. 02:41:28.830 --> 02:41:32.550 I mean, we talked about how maybe he'll get a bounce from just having pushed 02:41:32.550 --> 02:41:38.030 through it, but it's still like, you know, at a certain point you have to say, 02:41:38.030 --> 02:41:39.670 Say, okay, he's not going. 02:41:40.410 --> 02:41:43.470 Pushing him further on it is hurting more than it's helping. 02:41:45.030 --> 02:41:48.410 So the army you have time to get on board. 02:41:48.630 --> 02:41:50.670 Yep. Time to get on board. 02:41:50.930 --> 02:41:57.290 You know, like I believe it was Bob who said we have a very short window to change. 02:41:57.390 --> 02:41:59.990 And I'm like, no windows already closed. 02:42:00.230 --> 02:42:05.370 Yeah. Closed a long time ago. Yep. Anything that we did now would be an act of violence. 02:42:05.470 --> 02:42:09.970 It would be breaking the window back open. You know, the window is closed. 02:42:10.190 --> 02:42:11.390 The window is already closed. 02:42:11.610 --> 02:42:15.350 Anything that we do now would cause more damage than it would help. 02:42:15.490 --> 02:42:20.750 And I know like a lot of people earnestly disagree with that and think like 02:42:20.750 --> 02:42:25.510 if we did a switcheroo and suddenly had Harris at the Democratic Convention, 02:42:25.790 --> 02:42:29.450 that would be great. And like, I like Kamala Harris. 02:42:29.910 --> 02:42:35.910 I think she'd probably be a better candidate than Joe Biden if you had started that way. 02:42:36.070 --> 02:42:44.510 But I think the act of changing itself would be harmful and hurt her chances and anything. 02:42:44.910 --> 02:42:49.810 And, and of course you substitute Biden with anything, then all the attack dogs 02:42:49.810 --> 02:42:51.570 are going to go after whoever's new anyway. 02:42:52.310 --> 02:42:55.550 No, yeah, they're they're they're not that. 02:42:55.650 --> 02:42:59.990 I think a lot of people have the idea that if you magically substitute Biden 02:42:59.990 --> 02:43:04.230 with somebody else, that the Democrats are going to get a boost and all of a 02:43:04.230 --> 02:43:05.750 sudden we'll be in much better shape. 02:43:05.870 --> 02:43:09.650 And I just think that's hopium, as people are calling hopium. 02:43:10.710 --> 02:43:14.510 There is only one that showed that maybe that could be. 02:43:15.050 --> 02:43:19.750 And I'm saying maybe. Yep. Michelle Obama. But that's not happening. 02:43:19.850 --> 02:43:24.390 Yes. She has said so many times she has no interest whatsoever in that. 02:43:24.690 --> 02:43:26.870 No, not one bit. 02:43:27.150 --> 02:43:32.950 And I think there's some polling that shows that Harris might start out almost even with Joe Biden. 02:43:33.050 --> 02:43:38.250 But anybody else other than Harris starts out in a worse position than Joe Biden. 02:43:38.390 --> 02:43:40.430 In a way worse position. 02:43:40.710 --> 02:43:46.730 And yeah, so I guess we'll see by the time we next talk on this show. 02:43:46.810 --> 02:43:49.350 The RNC will be RNC. 02:43:49.590 --> 02:43:56.650 We will have a Republican nominee. The RNC will have happened or be almost over. 02:43:56.730 --> 02:43:58.110 If not over, I don't know. 02:43:58.610 --> 02:44:03.470 Somebody would, you know, somebody was, was making mention about all this drama 02:44:03.470 --> 02:44:08.370 around Biden said that and him getting, not getting the nomination, 02:44:08.550 --> 02:44:09.750 like some people, whatever. 02:44:09.970 --> 02:44:10.470 Right. 02:44:10.710 --> 02:44:11.710 Making Trump nervous. 02:44:13.250 --> 02:44:15.790 Who's making nervous? What, where some. 02:44:15.790 --> 02:44:19.210 People were saying that, I don't know if it's true or not, but that, 02:44:19.250 --> 02:44:21.350 that, that Trump wasn't enjoying watching. 02:44:21.710 --> 02:44:24.350 He was like, could they take nomination from me? 02:44:25.010 --> 02:44:29.390 Oh, well, but also I've heard that the, the Trump camp actually, 02:44:30.110 --> 02:44:34.750 the Trump camp is amongst the folks that think Biden is their easiest target. 02:44:35.050 --> 02:44:40.190 So there, they, they don't want the scenarios where they swap out bride Biden. 02:44:40.190 --> 02:44:43.450 And I'm not sure, like, I think it's more. 02:44:43.990 --> 02:44:50.610 I, I, I, I, well, look, listen, I really, you know, taking any analysis from 02:44:50.610 --> 02:44:51.910 the Trump camp is, is like, 02:44:52.910 --> 02:44:57.750 taking all these drug-addled idiots i mean i just whatever i i don't. 02:44:57.750 --> 02:45:03.150 Know yeah anyway the rnc goes through thursday so it will be done by the time 02:45:03.150 --> 02:45:09.070 we record again which will you know so anyway we'll know a lot more all. 02:45:09.070 --> 02:45:11.530 Right let's end this like we're done. 02:45:11.530 --> 02:45:17.490 We're done we're done and we've gone over long enough ivan i i suggest we skip 02:45:17.490 --> 02:45:20.690 the the slack thing we've talked about slack so much already this show. 02:45:21.230 --> 02:45:26.150 Like the, the feature that people could have missed on the Slack or you have 02:45:26.150 --> 02:45:27.230 something you really want to say. 02:45:27.510 --> 02:45:31.070 Okay. Well, let me, let me do the thing. Go to curmudgeons-corner.com. 02:45:31.170 --> 02:45:32.290 Find out how to contact us. 02:45:32.330 --> 02:45:37.150 Look at our archives, look at transcripts and go to Patreon to give us money. 02:45:37.550 --> 02:45:43.750 And if you give various amounts of money at Patreon, we'll, we'll send you a postcard. 02:45:43.810 --> 02:45:47.250 We'll send you a mug. We'll mention you on the show and at $2 a month them more 02:45:47.250 --> 02:45:51.510 or if you just ask please ask we would love to have more people on there we 02:45:51.510 --> 02:45:54.950 will invite you to our curmudgeon's corner slack where as we've been saying 02:45:54.950 --> 02:46:00.750 we've had robust discussion on the biden thing all week long what else you want 02:46:00.750 --> 02:46:01.630 you want to highlight something. 02:46:02.230 --> 02:46:06.670 German navy to replace asian eight inch floppy drives. 02:46:06.670 --> 02:46:07.770 With an emulated. 02:46:07.770 --> 02:46:13.570 Solution for its anti submarine frigate so apparently their their anti-sub frigates 02:46:13.570 --> 02:46:21.250 still rely on the good old 8-inch floppy in order to load some information and 02:46:21.250 --> 02:46:25.270 like run systems and whatever but apparently they're going to be able to do 02:46:25.270 --> 02:46:27.490 this do away with it with some kind of emulation. 02:46:27.490 --> 02:46:30.550 Okay excellent 8-inch. 02:46:30.550 --> 02:46:33.850 Floppies I had 8-inch floppies I love 8-inch floppies. 02:46:33.850 --> 02:46:40.470 Don't copy that floppy copy that floppy yeah you don't remember that that was 02:46:40.470 --> 02:46:43.230 a whole advertising campaign about. 02:46:43.230 --> 02:46:46.230 The software pirating anti-software pirating thing. 02:46:46.410 --> 02:46:49.430 Yeah. Yeah. Don't copy that floppy. It was a whole thing. 02:46:49.790 --> 02:46:52.270 I, I fuck, I copied the floppies. 02:46:53.050 --> 02:46:54.810 Yes. I think we all did. 02:46:55.090 --> 02:46:57.150 I think we all did. All right. We're done. 02:46:58.230 --> 02:47:03.950 Yeah. Okay. And one other thing I want to say, you know, this episode we were 02:47:03.950 --> 02:47:05.270 testing doing a live stream. 02:47:05.330 --> 02:47:11.390 The reason I was doing this was because like recently I listened to the election 02:47:11.390 --> 02:47:14.650 night live stream we did in 2020 and it was actually kind of fun. 02:47:14.930 --> 02:47:19.350 We had a whole bunch of people on and it was fun. And so I wanted to test the 02:47:19.350 --> 02:47:23.130 technology, see if we could do it well. and this worked really well. 02:47:23.410 --> 02:47:28.330 I did send the link to our curmudgeons corner Slack and also to a group text 02:47:28.330 --> 02:47:32.350 with my family, but absolutely nobody showed up to watch the live stream. 02:47:32.570 --> 02:47:37.470 It will be on YouTube after we finish, but yeah, no, nobody showed up. 02:47:37.510 --> 02:47:40.890 We, we, we had, you could have seen us live video. 02:47:41.370 --> 02:47:44.950 You could have chatted with us while we were like doing a thing. 02:47:44.970 --> 02:47:46.850 I don't, you know, maybe we'll do this again. 02:47:46.910 --> 02:47:49.990 Maybe we won't. I don't know. Like if, if anybody's interested let 02:47:49.990 --> 02:47:53.230 us know and but certainly like i don't 02:47:53.230 --> 02:47:56.110 know like even election night i would love to do it on election night 02:47:56.110 --> 02:47:59.610 but depending what's happening with my wife's race i might have to be at a victory 02:47:59.610 --> 02:48:04.930 party somewhere or something instead so right i might not be able to do a live 02:48:04.930 --> 02:48:06.910 stream of the election so we'll 02:48:06.910 --> 02:48:13.330 see anyway thanks everybody for joining us stay safe have a good week. 02:48:13.510 --> 02:48:18.610 Enjoy the Republican National Convention, I guess, and enjoy any additional 02:48:18.610 --> 02:48:23.490 drama around what happens with Joe Biden that happens in the coming week and 02:48:23.490 --> 02:48:26.350 any other news that's interesting. 02:48:27.190 --> 02:48:28.870 Anyway, goodbye. 02:48:29.330 --> 02:48:30.010 Bye. 02:48:56.650 --> 02:49:00.490 Oh now i have a concurrent viewer is it you oh. 02:49:00.490 --> 02:49:01.570 With me i was just. 02:49:01.570 --> 02:49:03.470 Just testing it. 02:49:03.470 --> 02:49:04.430 To see how it worked. 02:49:04.430 --> 02:49:12.750 Okay and with that it's i'm gonna hit stop and goodbye and all that stuff bye yvonne Bye.